[HN Gopher] Livermore's centennial light, the world's longest-bu...
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       Livermore's centennial light, the world's longest-burning light
       bulb
        
       Author : tentacleuno
       Score  : 39 points
       Date   : 2021-11-01 15:15 UTC (7 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.centennialbulb.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.centennialbulb.org)
        
       | mattowen_uk wrote:
       | As it's not directly explained on the link, I'll ask here...
       | How/Why is it still burning?
       | 
       | I have light bulbs in my house that blow after only a few months
       | use, and normally only blow when I turn them on, if this bulb was
       | power cycled, would it blow?
        
         | devindotcom wrote:
         | As I understand it the issue with ordinary incandescents is
         | that the alternating heat and cold from being used eventually
         | causes the glue attaching the glass to the metal part to crack,
         | which lets air into the bulb (ordinarily a vacuum/inert gas).
         | The next time you turn it on, the air causes the filament to
         | burn, causing the characteristic flare-up and scorch.
        
           | MisterTea wrote:
           | Er, that glue only holds the glass bulb in the socket. The
           | atmosphere contained within is completely glass sealed.
           | 
           | What happens is the filament sputters away (like evaporation)
           | and becomes thinner over time. It eventually becomes so thin
           | it breaks from thermal shock when turned on. The dark spot on
           | dead bulbs in the evaporated tungsten.
           | 
           | Fun fact: In theater a blown bulb can ruin a production so
           | some of the more critical lamps are dimmed instead of power
           | cycled to avoid blowing a lamp.
        
             | devindotcom wrote:
             | Really? I was under the impression that the glass isn't a
             | fully enclosed "bulb" so to speak, but is cut off at one
             | end to accommodate the rest of the necessary hardware, and
             | glue completes the seal. Perhaps you're right. I can't seem
             | to find a diagram or anything that shows this, though.
        
               | MisterTea wrote:
               | If you examine a clear incandescent bulb, you will see
               | that the support for the filament is hollow and has a
               | tube inside extending down. This little "straw" is the
               | point of connection for evacuation where the air is
               | removed and then back-filled with argon. The argon coaxes
               | the tungsten back onto the filament preventing rapid
               | sputtering which would happen in a pure vacuum. After the
               | argon the little tube is heated until it hits melting
               | point and crimped off for a near perfect hermetic seal.
               | The argon pressure is still well below atmosphere so the
               | bulb is still considered under "vacuum" compared to
               | atmosphere.
        
               | xenadu02 wrote:
               | The leads are inserted through a glob of hot glass, along
               | with a glass tube. The bulb's open base is heated to make
               | it soft, the blob containing the leads with attached
               | filament are inserted, then the base is welded to the
               | lead blob. Last the tube is used to evacuate the bulb
               | and/or inject inert gasses. While under this vacuum the
               | tube is melted and smashed closed, permanently sealing
               | the bulb. Attachment of the base comes later.
        
         | giantrobot wrote:
         | Besides the other great answers, there's also survivorship
         | bias. This bulb wasn't necessarily _designed_ to last a hundred
         | years. It 's just an outlier that _has_ lasted that long. We
         | wouldn 't give a shit about it had it burned out fifty years
         | ago. We don't talk about other bulbs (today) that lasted fifty
         | years even though that's an extremely impressive number itself.
         | If the Internet was around fifty years ago we might have half a
         | dozen webcams pointing to the "Half Century Bulbs" and being
         | fascinated with them lasting fifty years and wondering if any
         | will get to a hundred years.
        
           | BitwiseFool wrote:
           | The flip-side of it being the world's longest lasting light-
           | bulb is that _every other_ light-bulb made alongside it has
           | burnt out by now.
           | 
           | Its longevity is most likely due to a unique confluence of
           | factors, not simply because of a robust design produced
           | before the concept of planned obsolesce, as is often alluded
           | to whenever the subject is brought up. I also suspect its
           | longevity is helped by all the delicate care and attention it
           | has been given since people realized that it has been running
           | for so long. It has a dedicated power supply, it is under-
           | powered, and great care has been taken not to damage it.
           | Normal lightbulbs never get such a luxury.
           | 
           | It is certainly possible a newer lightbulb has already been
           | produced that will burn for twice as long as the Centennial
           | Light. We just won't live long enough to see it.
        
           | jbay808 wrote:
           | "Survivorship bias" is a favourite go-to for contrarians, but
           | it's not a strong effect and when you see something
           | surprising way out at the tail end of a distribution,
           | attributing it to survivorship bias is a lost opportunity to
           | learn something important. When something survives 2x longer
           | than expected, it might be survivorship bias. When it
           | survives 10x, 100x, or 1000x longer than expected, you should
           | probably look closer and see what material or operational
           | differences might be responsible, because there's going to be
           | something worth learning.
           | 
           | Even if what you learn is just that _any_ incandescent
           | lightbulb can have a greatly extended life if you run it at
           | below-spec brightness.
        
             | giantrobot wrote:
             | When you have an outlier like this bulb you can't make any
             | good statistical judgements about it unless it was part of
             | a controlled experiment.
             | 
             | This bulb is a sample size of one. We might roughly know
             | some details about its original construction and early
             | operational life but not enough to really draw conclusions
             | from. The only way to get more details about it will be a
             | postmortem examination of its physical qualities.
             | 
             | Due to its age we have little knowledge of its specific
             | construction details. Were the factory specs followed
             | exactly (or even recorded) or was some of the fabrication
             | machinery tuned by the operator? Did this bulb end up with
             | thicker than normal glass or filament? What was the
             | mortality rate of other bulbs in its batch? Does the fire
             | station have better (or worse) than typical wiring? Did it
             | have bad wiring early in the bulb's life to unintentionally
             | under-load it?
             | 
             | Sometimes extreme outliers are just extreme outliers. A
             | postmortem examination of the bulb might tell you it had a
             | manufacturing _defect_ giving it thicker than typical
             | filament that combined with babying it for the past 50
             | years extended its life.
             | 
             | Sorry it's not just being contrarian. Outliers are
             | outliers. Just because something is an outlier in a
             | distribution doesn't automatically mean there's some hidden
             | truth of the universe to be revealed.
        
             | kragen wrote:
             | > _When something survives 2x longer than expected, it
             | might be survivorship bias. When it survives 10x, 100x, or
             | 1000x longer than expected, you should probably look
             | closer_
             | 
             | You're implicitly assuming a normal distribution or
             | something like it, but it's easy for a lognormal
             | distribution to span multiple orders of magnitude like
             | that, and the Weibull distribution commonly used in
             | reliability modeling for this kind of thing can also be
             | heavy-tailed if _k_ > 1.
             | 
             | A simple physical example of how this could arise would be
             | if the filament diameter of a batch of bulbs was normally
             | distributed spanning a factor of 2, resulting in filament
             | resistances spanning a factor of 4, resulting in filament
             | powers spanning that same factor of 4, resulting in
             | filament powers per unit area of filament surface spanning
             | a factor of 2 (since the thickest filaments have the lowest
             | resistance and thus the highest power at a fixed voltage;
             | it'd be 8x instead on a constant-current source), resulting
             | in filament Stefan-Boltzmann temperatures varying by about
             | 19% (1.19 is the fourth root of 2), which works out to a
             | temperature difference of about 200 K for filament
             | temperatures of about 1000 K. That's probably (handwaving
             | here) enough temperature difference for about an order of
             | magnitude difference in vapor pressure, which (handwaving
             | wildly at this point) might mean an order of magnitude
             | difference in filament evaporation rate.
             | 
             | Also, typically there are hotspots in a filament where it's
             | thinner than the rest, which evaporate more rapidly because
             | they're hotter, which makes them get thinner faster, making
             | them even hotter. So the dominating factor in filament
             | lifetime (at a given voltage) might not be how thick it is
             | but how smooth it is.
             | 
             | So, you might find out something interesting. Or you might
             | just find that this bulb had an unusually thick or smooth
             | filament.
             | 
             | (Carbon has 1000x higher vapor pressure than tungsten,
             | though, which is relevant here:
             | https://www.powerstream.com/vapor-pressure.htm.)
        
               | jbay808 wrote:
               | _> You 're implicitly assuming a normal distribution_
               | 
               | I'm not really making that assumption. Instead, I'm
               | pointing out that learning this particular bulb survived
               | due to "unusually think or smooth filament compared with
               | other bulbs" is indeed something interesting you can
               | learn by inspecting the survivor, and that might be
               | something you can apply for process quality improvement.
               | 
               | Basically, I'm advocating the point of view that if you
               | are trying to _improve_ lightbulb, or say, ball bearing
               | quality (rather than just model it), then it 's useful to
               | look beyond the fact that the Weibull distribution is
               | long-tailed. A wide distribution is a reflection of
               | ignorance and thus a learning opportunity; the long tails
               | are still _caused by something_. Yes, from a given batch
               | of ball bearings, some might last 10x or 100x longer than
               | others under the same loading conditions. But if you put
               | those super-long-lasting bearings under a microscope, you
               | might observe real, important differences compared with
               | others from the same batch. The balls might all be
               | rounder or more identically-sized compared with their
               | cousins. (You can do the inspection before the lifetime
               | test if you want to be extra fair).
               | 
               | But it's even more important when you don't expect a
               | long-tailed distribution to begin with; for example, if
               | you have a linear damage model. In this case, if you
               | control for filament diameter, resistance, or brightness,
               | and _still_ see that one bulb is a mysterious outlier,
               | you might want to inspect the joints or run the gas in
               | the bulb through an analyzer to see if there are any
               | other surprises.
        
         | thescriptkiddie wrote:
         | Incandescent light bulbs have a trade-off between brightness
         | and longevity. This bulb specifically appears to be running at
         | a fraction of its original designed brightness.
         | 
         | https://www.mercurynews.com/2011/02/03/tests-shine-light-on-...
        
         | biggieshellz wrote:
         | The carbon filament has gotten thin enough that it runs at a
         | lower temperature and doesn't draw much current (or produce as
         | many lumens), so it doesn't wear out as quickly.
        
         | ars wrote:
         | The simple reason is that it's not a light bulb, it's a heater.
         | 
         | They are running it at much lower than specified voltage, so
         | are generating mostly heat, and almost no light, so the
         | filament is not very hot. It's glowing a dull red, not white.
         | 
         | There is a quadratic relationship between temperature; and
         | efficiency plus bulb life.
         | 
         | You may have heard of the phoebus cartel - they specified a
         | specific bulb life, which directly translates into a particular
         | energy efficiency. There's nothing about the manufacture of the
         | bulb that they casued to be worse, rather if the bulb lasts too
         | long, you just up the temperature and make a more efficient
         | bulb (uses less electricity).
         | 
         | You can buy stage bulbs that last barely 10 hours, and run
         | extremely hot, and also efficient, and for film that is the
         | tradeoff they prefer (I guess they need a lot of light, and
         | they don't really keep bulbs for long).
        
         | dvh wrote:
         | Every time you increase temperature by 10 degree, it shorten
         | the lifespan of electric device by 50%. If you run device that
         | was meant to run at 4600degC at 600degC, well you do the
         | math...
        
         | arcticbull wrote:
         | Modern lightbulbs use thinner filaments that are substantially
         | more efficient than the thick one used in this bulb, but they
         | don't last as long. Further, this particular bulb never gets
         | turn off and back on again which I'm led to believe causes
         | wear.
         | 
         | If it were turned off and back on it would likely be fine.
         | 
         | Always a fun segue into the Phoebus Cartel [1] which pushed for
         | shorter lifespans for bulbs - including by mandating thinner
         | filaments. They did it to keep people on the treadmill but it
         | was actually a substantial improvement in energy efficiency.
         | 
         | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoebus_cartel
        
           | edb_123 wrote:
           | I also do think that the filament thickness has a lot to say
           | for longevity. I have a "decor type" large warm glowing light
           | bulb with a quite thick and long filament that's been on for
           | hours daily and turned on and off multiple times daily for 10
           | years now and counting. And yes, it is a real incandescent
           | bulb, not LED :)
        
             | CelestialTeapot wrote:
             | The same game is still played today with LED bulbs (whether
             | there's a cartel behind it or not, I do not pretend to
             | know). See: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=klaJqofCsu4
        
         | kbutler wrote:
         | Some factors:                 - low voltage (below spec)
         | - constant on, instead of cycling       - strong element
         | - backup power       - generally a protected environment
        
         | longwave wrote:
         | The bulb was accidentally off for nine hours in May 2013 due to
         | a faulty UPS - originally installed to ensure the bulb would
         | not go out in the case of a power failure - but fortunately it
         | did not blow when power was restored.
        
       | TruthWillHurt wrote:
       | Before the invention of planned obsolescence...
        
         | GuB-42 wrote:
         | It also now has an efficiency of 0.05 lm/watt, 200 times less
         | than a standard "planned obsolescence" tungsten filament light
         | bulb and 3000 times less than a modern LED bulb.
         | 
         | Planned obsolescence is a thing, but it is often a trade-off,
         | not just companies being evil. By making things less durable,
         | you can also make them cheaper, lighter, more efficient,... You
         | also have to take technological progress into account. Your old
         | dishwasher may last for 50+ years but it is heavy, loud, wastes
         | water and electricity... So you may prefer a cheaper dishwasher
         | that only lasts 10 years because you may want to change it
         | later anyways because the energy savings of a new one can make
         | keeping the old one not worth it.
         | 
         | There are cases of planned obsolescence that are, in my
         | opinion, inexcusable (looking at you smartphone manufacturers)
         | but lightbulb longevity is a worthwhile trade-off.
        
       | moab wrote:
       | Obligatory on the topic of long-burning bulbs:
       | https://www.tildedave.com/byron.html
        
         | pokler wrote:
         | It seems weird that Thomas Pynchon's name is nowhere to be
         | found on this page or any other context about the source of
         | this story (its from Gravity's Rainbow). There are also
         | spelling errors.
        
       | LeoPanthera wrote:
       | See also: The Oxford Electric Bell, which has "rung" continuously
       | since 1840 on the same set of batteries.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oxford_Electric_Bell
       | 
       | I used to work in the same building as it. You can't actually
       | hear it ringing, it's extremely quiet anyway and it's behind two
       | layers of glass.
       | 
       | I made a video of it ringing way back in 2011:
       | https://youtu.be/1Dx1-f8xQio
        
         | kragen wrote:
         | I really appreciate your video. Thank you for posting it.
        
         | kingcharles wrote:
         | Clicked on YouTube link, realized we've met in real life. First
         | time that's happened to me on HN.
        
           | LeoPanthera wrote:
           | I have no idea who you are. But hi. I no longer live in
           | Oxford. Or the UK. :)
        
       | dang wrote:
       | Some past threads. Others?
       | 
       |  _Centennial Light_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=20427081 - July 2019 (20
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _This Light Bulb has been burning for 110 Years straight_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8749576 - Dec 2014 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _The Centennial Light, a bulb that 's reportedly been burning
       | for 113 years_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=8353200 -
       | Sept 2014 (29 comments)
       | 
       |  _The lightbulb that 's been burning for almost 110 years_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2642483 - June 2011 (9
       | comments)
        
       | kej wrote:
       | The Livermore bulb only has a small part, but this reminded me of
       | the story _17776: What Football Will Look Like in the Future_
       | [0]. It 's a fun science fiction story that is also a great
       | example of web storytelling.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.sbnation.com/a/17776-football
        
         | kingcharles wrote:
         | WTF. I DON'T EVEN.
         | 
         | I have no idea what I just experienced. My PC fan spooled up to
         | max speed when I clicked on the link and everything went all
         | 2001 Entering The Monolith on me. I panicked, but I stuck with
         | it.
        
         | kibwen wrote:
         | 17776 is the most important speculative fiction that I've read
         | in the past decade. Don't be turned off by the eye-melting lo-
         | fi hypermedia aesthetic, or the fact that the framing narrative
         | is ostensibly about football, hosted on a sports website, and
         | written by a sportswriter (all of whose work is brilliant, BTW,
         | even if you don't follow sports). As absurdly silly as the
         | premise is, it's quietly a thought-provoking treatment on how
         | humans adapt to post-scarcity and utopia, and changed how I
         | view the human relationship to modern video games.
         | 
         | There's also (the first half of) a sequel, 20020:
         | https://www.sbnation.com/secret-base/21410129/20020/
        
       | th0ma5 wrote:
       | Made in my hometown of Shelby, Ohio.
        
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