[HN Gopher] $1.5B lithium deposit discovered in Maine; excavatin...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       $1.5B lithium deposit discovered in Maine; excavating it poses a
       legal challenge
        
       Author : maxwell
       Score  : 206 points
       Date   : 2021-10-27 12:04 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.themainemonitor.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.themainemonitor.org)
        
       | panick21_ wrote:
       | There is endless amounts of lithium deposit everywhere. A lithium
       | deposit is essentially worthless.
       | 
       | What matters in lithium industry, is chemical processing. Nobody
       | cares about a lithium mining company. What matters is lithium
       | processing.
       | 
       | Lithium is not like a base metal, its more like a specialty
       | chemical. The output from every mine is unique, there is not
       | overall standard. Each output from each mine has to be qualified
       | with each major battery manufacturer.
       | 
       | Nevada has 100s of billion of dollars worth of lithium by itself
       | probably.
       | 
       | This will almost certainty not be mined. Making money from this
       | kind of rock is difficult in the first place and doing it in a
       | place with little mining industry makes that even worse.
       | 
       | Edit:
       | 
       | If you want insight into lithium industry, I recommend 'Global
       | Lithium Podcast' by a guy that has been in that business for many
       | decades and has worked for all the many of the major producers.
        
         | traveler01 wrote:
         | We have a deposit here in Portugal too. Didn't know Lithium
         | production had all those complications. But wouldn't mine it
         | and move it away to processing be an alternative? I don't know,
         | the US has a lot territory and probably lithium, wouldn't mine
         | it and move it be profitable?
        
           | goblinux wrote:
           | Lithium mining isn't like gold/iron/other metal mining. It's
           | more like salt harvesting. So trucking away loads of
           | dirt/salt/rock/ore to a processing plant isn't viable. You
           | have to process it on site which means huge ponds for
           | evaporation.
           | 
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u8-YDMzg2bY Interesting video
           | on the Lithium extraction
        
             | rmm wrote:
             | Your thinking of salars not hard rock deposits
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | This is not correct. Lithium Spodumene Ore is often
             | transported from West Australia to China for processing.
        
               | ineedasername wrote:
               | Do processing facilities like this exist closer to Maine
               | than China? If not, a new one would need to be built, so
               | I think the GP is still generally correct about the local
               | impacts.
        
               | rmm wrote:
               | Tianqi built a converter in Kwinana for hydroxide (I was
               | part of the build). But yeah you are correct for all the
               | other small mines all sell to converters in China often
               | through offtake agreements.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | I knew there were projects going on didn't know any of
               | them were done yet.
        
               | sanxiyn wrote:
               | As I understand, Kwinana plant is done but closed for
               | now. I found a Reuters article dated 2020-03-23, China's
               | Tianqi postpones commissioning of Australia lithium plant
               | amid liquidity problems.
               | 
               | https://www.reuters.com/article/tianqilithium-australia-
               | idUS...
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | Yes. This is what happens in Western Australia. Hard rock
           | mining and selling is possible. Even then however the
           | processor has to basically make the process specifically for
           | the deposit.
           | 
           | So its not as easy as just selling it to the lithium ore
           | market. You need a project partner that develops the project
           | with you.
           | 
           | The only group currently processing spodumene to lithium are
           | in China. Others want to make such project but I don't think
           | they are online.
           | 
           | I'm not saying this deposit is worthless, I'm just saying
           | 'this much lithium is there' is really not a good way to
           | evaluate the actual value of a deposit like this.
           | 
           | Generally the location of mines like this is quite relevant,
           | and a place that have bad regulation to begin with are very
           | unattractive.
           | 
           | The traditional lithium belt in the US is in North Carolina,
           | lithium was mined there for decades. Starting a new mine
           | there, is already incredibly difficult. Doing it in a place
           | with no such history will be far more difficult.
        
           | ashtonkem wrote:
           | The issue is that the further away from the mine you do your
           | refining, the higher your transport costs are. All else being
           | equal you'd rather transport a refined product a long way,
           | rather than a product that's 90% useless other rock.
        
         | thrower123 wrote:
         | That area of Maine has absolutely no infrastructure to be able
         | to do anything with such a deposit, and there's no way that the
         | sclerotic government and regulatory agencies would allow you to
         | build such infrastructure to process it, or even transport it
         | elsewhere to where it could be processed.
        
           | throwaway0a5e wrote:
           | It's basically on US2. That's not very rural as far as mines,
           | logging and other resource extraction goes. You don't really
           | need "infrastructure" to build a resource processing facility
           | since everything is global these days anyway. You need a road
           | that can handle truck traffic. The days of a paper mill
           | having parts made by the toolmaker across town are long gone.
           | Your specialty stuff will all show up in trucks that say
           | Fedex or XPO on the side and the special people who help you
           | get it running will all show up in cars with the little
           | Enterprise sticker on them.
        
             | Symbiote wrote:
             | There's also a railway (looks to be [1]), pretty close to
             | Newry. 10 miles of railway would be a small cost for a
             | large mine.
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/St._Lawrence_and_Atlantic
             | _Rail...
             | 
             | https://www.openstreetmap.org/search?query=Plumbago%20Mount
             | a...
        
             | thrower123 wrote:
             | Route 2 out through Bethel there isn't much of a road. It's
             | a winding two-lane stretch of blacktop that isn't as well
             | maintained as it used to be now that all the mills in
             | Berlin are gone.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | I've driven almost all of US2 in Maine at some point or
               | another. A 2-lane road is sufficient for pretty much
               | every industrial venture. If a 2-lane road isn't
               | sufficient then the facility's driveway won't be
               | sufficient either. There isn't that much traffic. There
               | will be dozens of people working there and trucks coming
               | and going.
               | 
               | You don't need an upscale suburb to run this kind of
               | facility. Employees won't be put off because the commute
               | isn't 15min or because they can't go to a boutique
               | sandwich shop during lunch break.
        
               | ineedasername wrote:
               | _If a 2-lane road isn 't sufficient then the facility's
               | driveway won't be sufficient either._
               | 
               | I'm guessing that their driveway won't be open to public
               | traffic and would be built to withstand constant use by
               | massively heavier trucks than are commonly seen on US2,
               | so I don't think this is an apples-apples comparison.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | The local roads already carry plenty of logging traffic
               | that grosses 80k, for highly inclusive values of 80k
               | (lol).
        
               | mywittyname wrote:
               | Kentucky is full of mountain roads with questionable
               | maintenance and build quality which are used by coal and
               | mining trucks all the time. They are basically one lane
               | roads too.
               | 
               | As long as the "road" is kind of flat and made of
               | something slightly more sturdy than sand, these trucks
               | can get through.
        
               | thrower123 wrote:
               | I bow down to your experience of driving through a few
               | times, over my experience of living in the region for the
               | first twenty-odd years of my life.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | What do you think the odds of someone driving all of US2
               | in Maine without living there for many years are? It's
               | not like it provides a very direct route between high
               | traffic or popular portions of the state.
        
             | fennecfoxen wrote:
             | No one is going to ship lithium ores overseas or down
             | highways to a processing plant, regardless of what the
             | property owner imagines. That burns a lot of diesel and
             | costs a lot of money to move a product that's over 90%
             | unwanted dirt. The economics aren't there. Purification on
             | site is much more efficient. If they can't purify it in
             | Maine they'll mine it somewhere else.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | They're gonna ship it across the street for processing
               | and then that stuff is what gets trucked out of state.
        
           | thatguy0900 wrote:
           | I don't like your description of sclerotic, implying the
           | government is dysfunctional if it doesn't allow heavy
           | industry open strip mining near "a few miles northeast of the
           | ski slopes of Sunday River and not far from Step Falls, where
           | swimmers can wade in shallow pools formed by hundreds of feet
           | of cascading granite ledge." 50 years from now when the area
           | is a wasteland with polluted rivers I'm sure the residents
           | who remember going swimming in natural ponds will be grateful
           | for the nimbleness of their government
        
             | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
             | Had the same reaction, essentially since the article goes
             | on in length about how the Brooksville mine turned into an
             | environmental disaster that cost taxpayers tens of millions
             | to clean up. It's not like there's no history here.
        
             | micromacrofoot wrote:
             | Yeah this might be a good example of how local governments
             | can prioritize long-term realities over short-term gains.
        
             | a2tech wrote:
             | Especially since as many people pointed out, Nevada has
             | huge deposits of lithium in areas that are uninhabitable
             | and bare desert
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | While true. Those are clay deposits. Nobody has yet
               | managed to make commercial clay deposits an actual thing.
               | So Nevada has these theoretical deposits that are large
               | but nobody has managed to mine any. The same goes fro
               | Clay deposits everywhere.
               | 
               | Here we are talking about Spodumene rocket deposit. These
               | are typically somewhat higher grade but they have a
               | proven track record and company with knowledge on how to
               | commercially make lithium hydroxide or carbonade from it.
               | 
               | Spodumene was basically the original source for lithium,
               | that we used to make nuclear weapon and later glass. This
               | was for a long time almost driven out of the market by
               | brine projects (mostly in South America) but the demand
               | for high grade lithium hydroxide has lead to a Spodumene
               | boom in West Australia.
        
         | twobitshifter wrote:
         | 1. Canada has a huge mining Industry and that's right next door
         | to Maine. 2. It's possible to bring in multinational consultant
         | teams specialized in mining industries. A location doesn't have
         | a mining industry until suddenly a big deposit is discovered
         | and they do.
        
         | bkovacev wrote:
         | We have lithium and Jadarite[0] reserves in Serbia. Is
         | potentially just trading the ore and/or moving the processing
         | out of Serbia viable? However, with Rio Tinto investing, we're
         | not looking solid environmentally.
         | 
         | [0] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jadarite
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _What matters in lithium industry, is chemical processing.
         | Nobody cares about a lithium mining company. What matters is
         | lithium processing_
         | 
         | I've heard a lot about the difficulty in processing lithium
         | into "battery grade" metal. Is there merit to this claim? If
         | so, what's so hard about it?
        
           | Lev1a wrote:
           | From a quick search on Wikipedia:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Environmental_issues :
           | 
           | > Environmental issues
           | 
           | > The manufacturing processes of lithium, including the
           | solvent and mining waste, presents significant environmental
           | and health hazards.[134][135][136] Lithium extraction can be
           | fatal to aquatic life due to water pollution.[137] It is
           | known to cause surface water contamination, drinking water
           | contamination, respiratory problems, ecosystem degradation
           | and landscape damage.[134] It also leads to unsustainable
           | water consumption in arid regions (1.9 million liters per ton
           | of lithium).[134] Massive byproduct generation of lithium
           | extraction also presents unsolved problems, such as large
           | amounts of magnesium and lime waste.[138]
           | 
           | > In the United States, there is active competition between
           | environmentally catastrophic open-pit mining, mountaintop
           | removal mining and less damaging brine extraction mining in
           | an effort to drastically expand domestic lithium mining
           | capacity.[139] Environmental concerns include wildlife
           | habitat degradation, potable water pollution including
           | arsenic and antimony contamination, unsustainable water table
           | reduction, and massive mining waste, including radioactive
           | uranium byproduct and sulfuric acid discharge.
           | 
           | Also from https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium#Precautions :
           | 
           | > Lithium metal is corrosive and requires special handling to
           | avoid skin contact. Breathing lithium dust or lithium
           | compounds (which are often alkaline) initially irritate the
           | nose and throat, while higher exposure can cause a buildup of
           | fluid in the lungs, leading to pulmonary edema. The metal
           | itself is a handling hazard because contact with moisture
           | produces the caustic lithium hydroxide. Lithium is safely
           | stored in non-reactive compounds such as naphtha.
        
             | vondur wrote:
             | I'm pretty sure that's the reason why most Lithium
             | production was moved to China.
        
             | coding123 wrote:
             | So all these Teslas are the roll-coalers now?
        
               | Raidion wrote:
               | Wait until you hear the downsides of petroleum
               | processing, distribution, and consumption!
        
               | pm90 wrote:
               | Only if their users vaporize or ingest their batteries.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | I'm not a chemist so I can't tell you what is so hard about
           | it.
           | 
           | I can only say that there are not very many companies that
           | can do it and even those companies seem to struggle a fair
           | bit bringing new supply to market. Many startup have for long
           | time tried all kinds of ways of bringing new supply to
           | market, and many have seen huge delay.
           | 
           | Lithium was (and still is) a tiny industry and these process
           | are pretty immature. Most lithium never needed to be as high
           | grade as is required now.
           | 
           | Every company seems to have a lot of its own secret sauce.
           | The people that are really knowledge about the subject are
           | very thinly distributed and given the growth of the industry
           | I would assume there are very few veterans.
           | 
           | You can just go out get a bunch of veterans that have done it
           | many times before, buy some standard equipment and get going.
           | 
           | Somebody in the comments here was involved in setting up such
           | a project, so that person have some more insight.
        
           | Lvl999Noob wrote:
           | Not an expert, or even an enthusiast tbh, but if I were to
           | guess, I would say its because Lithium is way too reactive.
           | It is basically impossible to find elemental Li and the
           | compounds Li forms are difficult to break (I think). So
           | unless the deposit is of some particularly easily collected
           | and concentrated (removing the dirt and stuff, idk the
           | technical term) or very easily broken, it probably won't be
           | worth it to even try to get raw Li from the ore.
        
         | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
         | Tesla's suppliers are Ganfeng Lithium, China, mined in China
         | and Australia. Kidman Resources, Australia, same, processed in
         | China. Pure Energy Minerals, Canada, uses Chinese processing as
         | of 2018.
         | 
         | Your Tesla's lithium was likely mined in Australia, tanker
         | shipped to China, it leaves China as lithium hydroxide and may
         | be final assembled into batteries in USA or Canada. Like almost
         | all materials for "green" products, lithium, composites,
         | aluminum, microchips, the western world has boxed themselves
         | out of making these things. So China does it where they set
         | their own carbon standards, and can manipulate value, pay,
         | trade, subsidies.
         | 
         | There is a ton more to the conversation when someone says _"we
         | just need stricter cap and trade"_ because China knows the grip
         | over everyone else they have. I rarely see people who know how
         | things are made make that argument with any practical
         | effectiveness, unless it ends with _"we go to war"_.
         | 
         | EDIT: So, to the topic, does it make sense to mine in Maine and
         | ship to China for processing? Is this new reserve that good?
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | In fact most of the hydroxide goes threw Korea or Japan
           | (sometimes even both I think). There the hydroxide is made
           | into cathode materials. This cathode materials are then
           | shipped to Nevada, where Panasonic creates cells, hands them
           | to Tesla to put into packs. Packs get put into cars.
           | 
           | Tesla always had the vision of doing cathode processing in
           | house, but I think in Nevada they never went that far (unless
           | this has changed).
           | 
           | In Austin Tesla is planning a plant to transform Spodumene
           | ore into hydroxide. This ore would come from North Carolina.
           | However this mine project seem to be delayed so for quite a
           | while they will likely continue to buy hydroxide (they have
           | to buy anyway but buy less at least).
           | 
           | They are also planning, and are already building a cathode
           | materials plant. There they would bring together nickel,
           | lithium hydroxide and co to make a cathode materials.
           | 
           | They are also already building a cell plant where they would
           | use that material to make cathode and cells.
           | 
           | They are also attempting to mine their own lithium in Nevada,
           | but that will take a quite a few years to come online (if
           | ever).
           | 
           | There are quite a few companies trying to get into all of
           | these markets in the US, but compared to China its still a
           | small amount and they are way behind
        
             | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
             | Seems I might've been office step doesn't leave China as
             | hydroxide then.
             | 
             | It's actually really crazy but your green vehicle battery
             | has to go from Australia to China to Japan to Nevada just
             | to got one more place for final assembly.
             | 
             | Agreed on the if-ever. There is a lot my company is forced
             | to do outside of the US and given the costs, we would never
             | break even with buying from China, literally never.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | Just to be clear, it leaves as hydroxide to Japan or
               | Korea mostly.
               | 
               | > It's actually really crazy but your green vehicle
               | battery has to go from Australia to China to Japan to
               | Nevada just to got one more place for final assembly.
               | 
               | And then might get delivered back to Australia or Britain
               | or whatever.
               | 
               | This is also why one of Musk major focus on Battery Day
               | was 'how far does a battery atom have to travel' is a
               | major measure of success for them.
        
               | SV_BubbleTime wrote:
               | Ah, gotcha!
               | 
               | > And then might get delivered back to Australia or
               | Britain or whatever.
               | 
               | Man, aluminum bugs me for that. Australia to China to
               | Iceland to China to USA as some "fancy" case for landfill
               | electronics at Walmart.
        
         | capableweb wrote:
         | But, seemingly, this one is "The richest known hard rock
         | lithium deposit" so it's got to be worth something, at least
         | it's newsworthy I guess.
         | 
         | Anyway, the article is not about the operation of mining
         | lithium, how to earn money on lithium or even chemical
         | processing, it's about regulation about mining in Maine, the
         | deposit itself just being the driver of the story. It also goes
         | into describing the supply chain around lithium and some other
         | goodies.
        
           | cortesoft wrote:
           | I did find it interesting that the primary source for this
           | article appears to be the couple who owns the land the
           | deposit is on. They would obviously have an interest in
           | making this deposit seem special, especially since it seems
           | like they want to pressure the state to allow them to mine
           | it.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | bcrosby95 wrote:
           | How do they define richest? Searching online, there's lots of
           | mines with more tons of ore. This one doesn't come close to
           | being within the top 10.
        
             | sanxiyn wrote:
             | "Rich" means high concentration of lithium in ore. This
             | deposit does seem to be top 1 in that measure, 4.68%.
             | 
             | For comparison, Greenbushes, THE lithium mine in West
             | Australia, is 1.60%. Note that Greenbushes is actually
             | famous for its high concentration. More typical is Mt
             | Cattlin at 0.50%. This deposit is 3x richer than
             | Greenbushes and 9x richer than Mt Cattlin, which is in fact
             | astonishing as the article says.
        
             | capableweb wrote:
             | Seems to have to do with that it's "hard rock" instead of
             | something else, and the purity? Not sure, not a
             | chemist/geologist, but here is what they say in the article
             | about it:
             | 
             | > The Freemans and researchers at Plumbago North knew the
             | crystals they found were extraordinary as soon as they
             | uncovered them. To determine the concentration of lithium,
             | they sent bulk samples for analysis at labs in Australia
             | and Germany.
             | 
             | > The results, said Simmons, were astonishing. The deposit
             | showed an average lithium oxide content of 4.68% by weight.
             | That's three times the average concentration of the world's
             | top 10 hard rock lithium mines. By comparison, the world's
             | second-richest hard rock lithium deposit, the Bernic Lake
             | mine in Manitoba, has a lithium oxide content of 2.76% by
             | weight and contains roughly eight million tons of ore.
        
               | panick21_ wrote:
               | This is actually quite significant, I must have missed
               | that.
        
           | washadjeffmad wrote:
           | It doesn't cost much to get a few inches of buzzword copy
           | that makes people ask "why won't they just lift the
           | regulations so we can have the free money?" without really
           | writing anything that leaves readers better and truthfully
           | informed about a topic.
           | 
           | We've got good responses by disinterested parties who know a
           | lot about lithium and mining here, and it's the single sided
           | argument funded by unknown sources that is generating the
           | sticky "but what if"s.
        
       | fernowens wrote:
       | It's definitely not worth the challenge. There's a lot of legal
       | precautions at risk. The money at stake will not be enough for
       | the hassle.
        
       | echopurity wrote:
       | HN is ideology free apart from the constant corporate disinfo,
       | etc.
        
       | neals wrote:
       | So how common is lithium on earth anyway? Is it like the new oil?
       | Can we make it in the lab? Will we wage war over it? Will we
       | deplete it? Can we find it on the moon or Mars?
       | 
       | *) Lithium on Mars?
       | https://ui.adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2012arXiv1208.6311D/abstra...).
        
         | AHabe wrote:
         | Considering everything and their dog now runs on some sort of
         | lithium ion battery, it very much is the new oil.
         | 
         | I don't see why wars wouldn't be fought over it, certainly has
         | been the case for oil.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | War over lithium would be totally insane. Every continent has
           | basically unlimited amount of lithium.
           | 
           | Its not an energy source and the ratio of how expensive it is
           | to mine and how expensive you can sell it is nowhere close to
           | oil.
           | 
           | Fighting wars over lithium deposit would be insanely dumb and
           | that will never happen.
           | 
           | Lithium is not a consumable, once you have it you keep it. We
           | need it now to grow the fleet but once the fleet is replaced
           | recycling will be the most economical way to get it.
        
           | starbugs wrote:
           | It is not an energy source though. So the comparison to oil
           | is at least a bit flawed if you ask me.
        
             | fendy3002 wrote:
             | As a factorio player, energy storages are as important as
             | energy source itself. Especially for renewables since the
             | energy sources are practically unlimited (and the
             | efficiencies are increasing) but very fluctuate.
             | 
             | And if you see from other perspective, oil are both energy
             | storage and energy source, which is "almost" equivalent
             | with solar cells and batteries.
        
               | starbugs wrote:
               | As I said in my other reply, I think the difference is
               | really ERoEI. And that's very likely an important
               | difference. Because you wouldn't get an economical system
               | if you're not able to get a competitive ERoEI from the
               | whole system (including storage). I suspect to take oil's
               | status you'd therefore have to have something that allows
               | you to also cheaply get the energy, not only store it.
               | 
               | Lithium as an input to storage is really just a small
               | part of the whole picture. Like a barrel is for oil.
        
             | tiborsaas wrote:
             | It's an intermediary source and it doesn't care where that
             | energy came from. The oil analogy is not that far fetched
             | if you consider that both are tied to a geographic location
             | where they needs to be extracted.
        
               | starbugs wrote:
               | That's likely true if you look at network effects, but
               | maybe not so true if you look at energy return on energy
               | invested (ERoEI). In my opinion, the latter is a big part
               | of oil's status as a "universal" energy source/carrier.
        
         | VortexDream wrote:
         | It's fairly common. Known reserves amount to around 80 million
         | tons. Yearly production is around 100k tons.
         | 
         | I think I saw a projection for a yearly consumption of around
         | 1.7m tons in 2030.
         | 
         | I'd say the biggest issue is simply going to be environmental
         | impact. This is a big reserve that can't be mined because of
         | environmental regulation. That's a lot of money to just pass
         | on, and I don't think that's going to hold.
        
           | merrywhether wrote:
           | Is it really that much money? It's not like that's pure
           | profit; mining requires large up-front capital investment to
           | even start. Break that down to 20 years (round number for
           | illustration purposes only, seemingly on the quick side based
           | on quick searching), and you're down to $75mm/year which
           | begins to sound like a lot less money when you start adding
           | the recurring costs of operation to the initial capital cost.
           | Add in the state mandates for damage escrow and you're
           | probably looking at a business that makes the owners wealthy,
           | but otherwise produces only a handful of jobs and minimal tax
           | revenue while permanently destroying some of the natural
           | beauty of a state heavy on tourism that relies on that
           | beauty.
           | 
           | Put another way: if it was a lot of money they'd find a way
           | to do it underground.
        
         | sss111 wrote:
         | It is the 33rd most abundant element on earth. However, as it
         | is highly reactive it is never found in its pure form in
         | nature, and right now, we extract it from mineral rich brine
         | from lakes. This process uses a lot of water, approximately
         | 500,000 gallons of water goes into extracting 1 ton of lithium,
         | enough to make 190,000 smartphones.
         | 
         | I think we'll wage war over water before we wage one over
         | Lithium.
        
           | tata71 wrote:
           | Bush and Gates families already stacking waterrights and
           | farmlands.
        
           | adwn wrote:
           | What happens to the water after production? Can it be
           | recycled?
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | In the process described above its evaporated. Other
             | processes that are in development pump it back into the
             | underground brine (just a little less salty).
             | 
             | What is relevant here is that this is salty brine water,
             | not drinking water.
             | 
             | And the water usage is very different for what we are
             | talking about here. This is not a brine mine, but a
             | spodumene rock mine. That uses far less water.
        
         | Faaak wrote:
         | The sea is the largest resource of lithium. It's just cheaper
         | to dig it for now.
        
         | Jwarder wrote:
         | my understanding is that it is super common, but not very
         | concentrated in the earth. As a result it makes mining more
         | difficult. You don't just find a ore vein in a cave, you have
         | to dig up and process tons of stone in a wider area.
        
         | torpfactory wrote:
         | There really isn't that much lithium in today's "Lithium ion"
         | batteries. A few percent by weight. Much more Nickel, Cobalt,
         | Aluminum, Carbon, Copper, and Iron than Lithium. Lithium metal
         | anodes would push that number up but that flavor hasn't really
         | solved it's lifespan problems yet.
        
           | alistairSH wrote:
           | Stating there isn't much lithium in a single cell isn't
           | really meaningful; there are a lot of individual batteries,
           | and the number keeps growing, so we still require a lot of
           | lithium to be mined. Relatively less than other minerals, but
           | still a significant amount and still destructive to the local
           | area where lithium is mined.
        
         | windowsrookie wrote:
         | One difference is that it can be recovered from worn out
         | lithium batteries. So at some point we could theoretically have
         | enough lithium from recycled batteries that we no longer need
         | to mine a significant amount of it.
        
         | avianlyric wrote:
         | Lithium is only created in stellar events (Big Bang, super
         | novas). There's no natural way for it form on Earth.
         | 
         | As a result all lithium deposits we're created during the
         | formation of the planet as it coalesced out of interstellar
         | dust. Consequently the distribution of Lithium around the
         | planet is pretty even. There's no "hot spots" of high
         | concentration, and every country has a supply proportional to
         | its land mass.
         | 
         | That, plus the relative abundance of Lithium, means it's
         | unlikely that fighting a war for Lithium will ever make sense.
         | Much easier and cheaper to just dig in your own backyard, than
         | fight for someone's backyard that has the same dirt in it.
        
           | saba2008 wrote:
           | >there's no natural way for it form on Earth.
           | 
           | 'Naturally forming' elements on Earth are limited to uranium
           | fission products.
           | 
           | Lithium (also aluminium, magnesium, sodium) distribution is
           | due to it being light and chemically active, thus ending up
           | in crust, while heavier metals (iron, nickel) end up in
           | mantle and core. It takes specific geological circumstances
           | to bring mantle material into crust, so there are 'hot
           | spots'. Lithium is already there, so it is spread somewhat
           | evenly.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | bob229 wrote:
       | Who cares. Humanity is already doomed. Good riddance to us all
        
       | OliverJones wrote:
       | Figuring out how to mine this safely seems like a decent project
       | for the Department of Energy's ARPA-E project. It's worth an
       | evaluation at any rate. https://arpa-e.energy.gov/
       | 
       | Surely there are some National Lab boffins with expertise in
       | environmental protection.
        
       | Gravityloss wrote:
       | Why is everyone so keen on lithium when, to me, it's almost a
       | footnote in battery components by weight? Cobalt and nickel are
       | the heaviest. Cobalt is the priciest constituent...
        
       | whoknowswhat11 wrote:
       | As a newenglander I laughed at this headline.
       | 
       | This is SO FAR from being a $1.5B deposit it's not event funny.
       | 
       | That area is pretty. The idea that we would choose maine (vs the
       | many other places in US with deposits) would be crazy for this
       | industry I think?
       | 
       | https://cdn3.i-scmp.com/sites/default/files/images/methode/2...
       | 
       | for a photo of what the processing might look like.
        
       | supperburg wrote:
       | People forget that a battery has only a dusting of lithium. A
       | very small amount. People hear the name and they think it's a
       | chunk of metallic lithium.
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | It's more like 5 to 10kg, multiplied by 1.5B cars on earth it
         | adds up quickly.
        
         | ct0 wrote:
         | Does that mean we will need less of them? As technology
         | advances, we need more lithium.
        
           | supperburg wrote:
           | Yes. That's a lot of dustings.
        
       | giantg2 wrote:
       | It's not really surprising. The use of lithium batteries to
       | replace fossil fuels is really just shifting where and what
       | environmental impact is produced. It's not as clean as they claim
       | to be. It's like coal plants with scrubbers saying they are
       | clean. They are only relatively clean, just like lithium is only
       | relatively clean.
       | 
       | At least the lithium deposit near the Salton Sea is already in an
       | area that's an ecological disaster. It makes sense that Maine
       | would want to protect their natural resources.
        
         | torpfactory wrote:
         | The issue is that while mines produce relatively localized
         | environmental damage, climate change will produce globalized
         | damage by ecosystem collapse and sea level rise. The sum total
         | of this damage will be far greater than the marginal increase
         | in mining required for battery production. Shifting, for sure,
         | but the scale of destruction is the real question.
        
           | dbatten wrote:
           | I'm not even convinced that there will be a "marginal
           | increase in mining required for battery production," nor that
           | there will be an associated increase in localized
           | environmental damage.
           | 
           | Lithium mines produce localized environmental damage, _but so
           | does fossil fuel extraction_. Think about environmental
           | damage from mountaintop removal coal mining, fracking,
           | offshore oil spills, etc.
           | 
           | With fossil fuels, you get localized environmental damage,
           | _plus_ climate change.
           | 
           | With lithium, you get localized environmental damage, but you
           | hopefully support a transition to renewables.
        
             | giantg2 wrote:
             | Does Maine allow for those other actions, like strip mining
             | coal?
        
               | thrower123 wrote:
               | No, not at all. In the past year, they attempted to shut
               | down one of last remaining paper mills that is keeping
               | the beleaguered forestry industry alive by ordering the
               | removal of a dam that alteady had had a fish ladder
               | installed at great cost, because it might possibly still
               | impact the spawning of a miniscule subpopulation of
               | salmon.
               | 
               | There's been enormous conflict about simply building a
               | high voltage transmission line across the boondocks of
               | the western mountains to bring cheap green power down
               | from the Quebec Hydro dams.
        
               | bigbillheck wrote:
               | > There's been enormous conflict about simply building a
               | high voltage transmission line
               | 
               | There might be less conflict if that line wasn't solely
               | for the benefit of Massachusetts.
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | So it sounds like the arguments about local extraction of
               | coal/metals/petroleum are moot for this locality, since
               | extraction isn't taking place there.
        
           | giantg2 wrote:
           | Scale is a good question. However, it might not matter if the
           | residents (through the state) decide they don't want their
           | local area to be destroyed. For example, climate change may
           | not be as _locally_ damaging as some massive strip mines.
        
         | KarlKemp wrote:
         | Yes, neither option may be perfect. But just claiming that,
         | therefore, they are equally bad is philistine. It's a full
         | embrace of a talking point even ExxonMobile has retired.
        
         | hurgs wrote:
         | It's a very misleading statement to bluntly compare a
         | consumable Ressource with a recycle metal.
         | 
         | While it is known that lithium itself has environmental issues
         | the potential reuse and benefit of pulling it out of the earth
         | to make batteries will have a very long and positive outcome
         | for us.
         | 
         | And to a certain degree the initial disruption might be totally
         | worth it in the long run in comparison to stuff we just burn
         | away.
        
         | sabertoothed wrote:
         | Unlike coal, lithium does not get burned or used up. At least
         | in principle, it can be recycled.
        
           | supperburg wrote:
           | Yes. The narrative that electrification just shifts around
           | the pollution is so tired and untrue. The end to end pipeline
           | of EVs is much more efficient than that of gas cars, so even
           | if we start synthesizing fuels that are carbon neutral gas
           | cars will lose. The only reason gas cars could ever exist is
           | because of cheap and dirty fuel. The only car that makes
           | sense in a sustainable system is an EV maybe with synthesized
           | and carbon neutral hydrocarbon range extension for
           | emergencies.
        
             | wibagusto wrote:
             | I don't think the point of contention is whether it's
             | recyclable. Primary issue is: what is the local
             | environmental impact of MINING lithium?
             | 
             | For folks who don't live in Maine it's a no-brainer: sure,
             | go for it! Bring the USA more domestically produced
             | lithium.
             | 
             | But... mining fucks up entire ecosystems and pollutes water
             | etc... and even if companies can "promise" the operation
             | will be clean, come to implementation they likely walk back
             | on that and the damage is done.
        
               | supperburg wrote:
               | I don't suppose there's a mining expert who could weigh
               | in?
        
               | wibagusto wrote:
               | For what it's worth you don't need a mining expert to
               | know that establishing a large scale mining operation
               | will fuck up the local region somewhat.
               | 
               | At the very least, all the demolition and vehicles, fuel,
               | explosives, chemicals.
               | 
               | Shits going to leak into the rivers one way or the other.
               | In addition, they would likely use up a ton of local
               | water supply.
               | 
               | It's a no-brainer. Maine is not in the middle of some
               | desert.
        
               | hutzlibu wrote:
               | For what's it worth, I live in a area that has done
               | extensive mining for over 1000 years with no big natural
               | disaster caused by it. Today it is only operational by
               | small scale in comparison, (and it never experienced the
               | big chemical industious mining), but you absolutely can
               | mine the earth without creating havoc.
               | 
               | It is just a lot more expensive then.
               | 
               | Which is why most mining is done in remote, or poor
               | areas, with laughable regulations, where no one dares
               | complain for the jobs.
        
               | crowbahr wrote:
               | What's the local environmental impact of drilling oil?
               | 
               | Because it's worse than lithium _and_ contributes to a
               | global catastrophe that threatens billions of lives.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Sure, but the available options aren't limited to "mine
               | lithium in Maine" and "do absolutely nothing".
        
               | peytoncasper wrote:
               | Genuinely curious, what are the alternatives to the
               | three?
               | 
               | 1. Mine lithium 2. Drill oil 3. Do nothing
               | 
               | You have to store energy somehow, even if the entire
               | world shifted to walking everywhere. Goods still need to
               | traverse the world and thus far there hasn't been
               | anything else with a high enough energy density to get
               | close.
               | 
               | The argument being made is that if mining lithium becomes
               | more popular, its likely to lead to advancements that do
               | limit its ecological impact and provide a more
               | sustainable method for storing energy...
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Alternatives:
               | 
               | Mine somewhere else.
               | 
               | Non-lithium approaches to storing energy.
        
               | crowbahr wrote:
               | If America is benefiting from the Lithium we should also
               | be mining it at home. Let's not shift our negative cost
               | externalities to a different nation but instead own them.
        
               | peytoncasper wrote:
               | Do you have examples of portable, non-mined or extracted
               | alternatives to storing energy?
        
             | ensiferum wrote:
             | I think the only really sustainable car is the one that
             | doesn't exist. Regardless whether your car is electric or
             | ICU it's just a method of transportation that is wasteful
             | of energy and resources and doesn't scale.
        
             | api wrote:
             | I've read numerous analyses arguing that a small to mid
             | size EV releases less CO2 and other pollution than a
             | similarly sized typical gas car (or even a hybrid) even if
             | the electricity comes from 100% coal.
             | 
             | Coal releases the most CO2 per unit energy. It's almost
             | pure carbon after all. But to compare with a gasoline car
             | you have to consider:
             | 
             | (1) Large power plants are anywhere from 1.5X to 3X more
             | thermally efficient than a small piston engine. How much
             | better depends on whether the power plant is an old school
             | boiler and turbine or a newer supercritical steam or
             | combined cycle plant.
             | 
             | (2) Gasoline is the highly refined and quality controlled
             | end product of a long supply chain. Oil must be drilled,
             | sometimes cracked (for heavy oil), shipped (often more than
             | once), refined (this uses a lot of power), doped with small
             | amounts of manufactured additives, then shipped at least
             | one and sometimes two or three more times to a gas station.
             | Every step of that supply chain uses even more energy, and
             | this must be subtracted to get the overall end-to-end
             | efficiency of a car engine. This makes car engine
             | efficiency from oil well to tailpipe really suck. Coal
             | meanwhile is often shipped only once or twice and requires
             | minimal processing, usually just pulverization and then
             | flue gas scrubbers at the exhaust end.
             | 
             | (3) ICE cars require a lot more maintenance and fluids that
             | have to be changed, etc., and all that has to also be
             | considered in their energy footprint.
             | 
             | EVs are superior in every single way _except range and
             | recharge time_ : complexity of the vehicle, reliability,
             | acceleration and driving experience, urban pollution,
             | overall emissions, and end to end efficiency. They remain
             | superior even in the worst case of a 100% coal fired power
             | grid, and very few regions get their power from only coal.
             | The range and recharge time gap is already small enough to
             | make EVs practical for 90%+ of driving scenarios and the
             | gap is closing. The oil age is over.
        
               | AdrianB1 wrote:
               | I would like to see a source for the first claim. If I
               | recall correctly from my parent's expertise (energy
               | domain) an efficient large power plant (~60-65%) can be ~
               | 1.5 times more efficient than a modern ICE engine
               | (averaged, Diesel being better than gasoline, around
               | 40%). 3x would push the efficiency over 100%.
        
               | api wrote:
               | Can't find it now, but you are probably right for newer
               | and well maintained ICE engines. I'm guessing that the
               | 1.5X-3X range I saw includes old and badly maintained
               | engines. They could also have been measuring overall fuel
               | to _wheel_ efficiency and including a ~15% loss in the
               | transmission and drive train and maybe also including
               | average time spent idling (which doesn 't apply to EVs).
               | 
               | Keep in mind that there are a lot of shitty cars on the
               | road. A power plant's engine is going to usually be well
               | tuned and maintained because small increases in
               | efficiency can be worth a ton of money when you are
               | generating tens of gigawatt hours per day of power. How
               | often does a typical driver of a middle-aged car take it
               | in to be tuned with the objective of maximizing energy
               | efficiency?
               | 
               | I bet the average gap across all cars on the road and
               | including transmission loss is at least 2X.
               | 
               | Also it's tough to argue against the second point. Look
               | into how much power is used in the oil to gasoline supply
               | chain, especially if the oil is coming from heavy oil
               | that requires an additional cracking ("upgrading") step
               | or fracked wells that require a lot of energy to drill
               | and hydraulically fracture. I recall reading an analysis
               | years ago arguing that the Canadian tar sands are almost
               | an indirect natural gas to oil conversion operation
               | rather than a net producer of energy. A huge amount of
               | gas is burned to get that stuff out of the ground and
               | into a form that refineries can handle. You could instead
               | just burn that gas in a combined cycle power plant and
               | run EVs with it and emit a lot less carbon.
               | 
               | Thing is when you are buying any oil product you are
               | really not buying energy. It's ridiculously expensive
               | compared to energy from any other source. You are buying
               | _conveniently stored_ energy and paying a huge markup for
               | it.
        
               | mikeyouse wrote:
               | Not OP but he's correct if talking about how much energy
               | actually moves the car --- IC engines are indeed ~40%
               | efficient but if you're measuring the energy that
               | actually moves the car it's more like 23%-25% due to all
               | the parasitic and drivetrain losses. So it's completely
               | plausible for a power plant to be 3x that.
               | 
               | Of course some of those losses would also apply to EVs
               | but still, "wasting" 3/4 the energy of a highly refined,
               | carbon intensive product is a pretty low bar.
               | 
               | Page 53 onward: https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/
               | handle/2027.42/5764...
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | The big question in my mind, is what are we going to
               | build roads out of? Most of them are still using
               | petroleum products. Concrete is a CO2 emitter too. What's
               | left? Is there a point to creating electric cars if we
               | find out that we need to do away with the infrastructure
               | they require, or did we not think that far ahead yet? I'm
               | genuinely curious what options exist to deal with this.
        
               | Ottolay wrote:
               | The problem is not petroleum products themself, the
               | problem is burning the petroleum products. Even if we
               | move the whole energy economy away from fossil fuels
               | we'll still be using oil for lubrication, plastics,
               | asphalt, and a bunch of other things. That is fine.
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | Eventually it is a problem - they are not renewable. Are
               | all the components usable for these other uses? I thought
               | some distillates only worked for some uses (can the gas
               | portion be used for asphalt?).
               | 
               | I would also imagine there is immense heating from the
               | road surfaces. Not to mention the fumes, chemicals used
               | in the processing, and all the transportation.
        
               | richiebful1 wrote:
               | If we're not burning petroleum for heating/electricity
               | anymore I imagine our reserves will be enough for
               | thousands of years of roads, chemicals, synthetic
               | materials, etc. By then we'll have developed
               | alternatives, if not sooner
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | I think that's wishful thinking on the timeline and a
               | very hopeful outlook for technology to save us. It also
               | doesnt answer the question of if some of the byproducts
               | are only useful for burning. If I remember right,
               | gasoline was originally considered a byproduct.
        
               | cesarb wrote:
               | > EVs are superior in every single way except range and
               | recharge time
               | 
               | While I'm also in favor of EVs, I can see two other ways
               | in which EVs are not superior: weight (every article
               | about EVs I read seems to mention that they're heavier
               | than the corresponding ICE vehicles; on the other hand,
               | the weight _distribution_ seems to be yet another way in
               | which most EVs are superior, with their low center of
               | gravity), and _price_. The price seems to be the main
               | barrier to EV adoption IMO, and is probably the reason
               | they are so rare where I live (it 's a major metropolitan
               | area, and yet so far I have seen a non-rail EV only
               | once).
        
               | VintageCool wrote:
               | Battery prices have dropped 89% since 2010. BloombergNEF
               | has predicted that, with battery costs continuing to
               | decline, EVs will be less expensive than ICE cars by
               | 2027. UBS predicts 2024.
               | 
               | https://www.theguardian.com/business/2021/may/09/electric
               | -ca...
        
               | mrtranscendence wrote:
               | > The price seems to be the main barrier to EV adoption
               | IMO, and is probably the reason they are so rare where I
               | live (it's a major metropolitan area, and yet so far I
               | have seen a non-rail EV only once).
               | 
               | Interesting. I live near a (relatively!) affluent suburb
               | of Cincinnati and I see at least one or two Teslas a
               | week, depending on how much I'm driving. Our next door
               | neighbors have an electric BMW (i3). And I'm not a car
               | guy, so there could be a lot more than that I'm missing.
               | 
               | Next car I buy will probably be a Tesla? Though it might
               | be a few years.
               | 
               | Of course, this doesn't disprove your point that price is
               | an issue in adoption.
        
               | api wrote:
               | The weight issue is a mixed bag. It can improve handling
               | in some conditions such as bad weather. Regenerative
               | braking makes up for the energy cost fairly well.
               | 
               | The cost is higher up front but lower overall. The
               | comparison is also only fair if you compare similar
               | cost/luxury classes of car. It's not fair to compare a
               | Tesla Model S to a Honda Civic. Instead you'd compare a
               | Model S cost to a mid-high end BMW, Mercedes, Audi, etc.
               | You'd compare a Honda Civic to a Nissan Leaf or a Chevy
               | Bolt.
        
               | giantg2 wrote:
               | I'm still waiting for ones not based on "loaded" trims.
               | Appearently the margins are too low to support budget
               | vehicles. Look at trucks. I just want/need a basic work
               | truck. They're about $25k. The lowest cost I've seen for
               | an electric one is about double the cost.
               | 
               | So I agree that you have to compare similar levels/trims,
               | but many times the lower trims don't exist in the EV
               | market.
        
               | danans wrote:
               | > The price seems to be the main barrier to EV adoption
               | IMO, and is probably the reason they are so rare where I
               | live (it's a major metropolitan area, and yet so far I
               | have seen a non-rail EV only once).
               | 
               | If you live on an area with electrified rail transit
               | (which is where we ought to be going) but effectively no
               | EVs that's surprising. Where is this?
               | 
               | Today, the price of EVs has dropped to within comfortable
               | reach of middle to upper middle class people, who are
               | most of the people who buy new cars anyways (the lower
               | middle and working class are much more likely to buy
               | used).
               | 
               | The bigger issue is cultural - with some areas (US
               | coastal states and cosmopolitan cities, cosmopolitan
               | parts of Europe, etc) being far further along in the
               | cultural adoption of EVs.
               | 
               | This is changing though. On a recent trip to Michigan I
               | saw a significant rise in EVs (I'm more well off areas)
               | vs the not distant past and I suspect this is because
               | Detroit automakers finally have solid EV offerings.
               | 
               | EVs, like smartphones, are now aspirational goods.
        
               | cesarb wrote:
               | > If you live on an area with electrified rail transit
               | (which is where we ought to be going) but effectively no
               | EVs that's surprising. Where is this?
               | 
               | Rio de Janeiro. Off the top of my head, we have Supervia
               | (commuter rail, overhead catenary), Metro Rio (subway,
               | third rail), Corcovado train (touristic train, AC
               | overhead catenary), Santa Teresa tram (tram, overhead
               | catenary), and VLT Rio (tram, APS third rail). I know
               | there are some EVs (I've seen it in the news a couple of
               | years ago, there were something like five EVs in the
               | whole city), but I've only seen one personally once (I
               | believe it was a BMW i3).
               | 
               | The bigger issue here is IMO still price - and all EVs
               | are AFAIK imported, which makes them even more expensive.
        
               | Symbiote wrote:
               | > If you live on an area with electrified rail transit
               | (which is where we ought to be going) but effectively no
               | EVs that's surprising. Where is this?
               | 
               | Railway lines in poorer or second-world (ex-USSR)
               | countries were sometimes electrified since it ensured the
               | most flexible and reliable fuel supply: you could run
               | trains not only from oil, but also coal, gas, nuclear or
               | hydroelectric power. Compared to diesel, the locomotives
               | are cheaper, faster, quieter, and more powerful, and the
               | operating costs for trains and track are lower. The ride
               | quality is better, and it still felt "modern" to make the
               | upgrade in the mid-20th century.
               | 
               | Sort by percentage electrified length on [1] and you have
               | Ethiopia, Armenia, Montenegro, Georgia, Bulgaria, India,
               | Poland, Azerbaijan, North Korea, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
               | Morocco, Ukraine, South Africa, North Macedonia etc all
               | with a significant proportion of their rail networks
               | electrified.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_ra
               | il_tran...
        
             | giantg2 wrote:
             | Just because it's _cleaner_ doesn 't make it _clean_. My
             | point is that we should be asking questions about the
             | impacts so we can minimize the negative ones.
             | 
             | For example, where is the energy coming from to charge
             | those batteries? Even if we say wind or solar, those
             | devices end up in landfills. Maybe we should look at making
             | these devices recyclable as an integral part of the
             | strategy.
        
           | SEJeff wrote:
           | Lithium Ion batteries can mostly be recycled:
           | 
           | https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/10/tesla-jb-straubel-redwood-
           | ma...
        
           | hammock wrote:
           | >it can be recycled
           | 
           | Yet here we are talking about a lithium mine, which is not
           | clean.
        
             | wil421 wrote:
             | So you're saying we should continue to burn fossil fuels in
             | our cars because lithium mining is dirty?
        
               | TrispusAttucks wrote:
               | It's okay to point out problems with a path to the
               | future. It's also okay to still take that path even
               | though it's not perfect. Eyes wide open. Lesser of two
               | evils.
        
               | jcims wrote:
               | I'd promote it to essential.
               | 
               | The problem is that in open conversation like this a
               | simple statement like _' Yet here we are talking about a
               | lithium mine, which is not clean'_ is insufficiently
               | contextualized to know where the commenter is coming
               | from. Are they just trying to be transparent and
               | realistic? Are they someone that has no dynamic range in
               | their understanding of ecological harm? Are they long in
               | petroleum and want to throw interference up at any point
               | where electrification of transport comes up? Are they
               | just being a contrarian troll?
        
               | hammock wrote:
               | I'm saying "lithium recycling" isn't yet such a benefit
               | that we don't need to keep mining additional lithium.
               | 
               | Not to suggest OP was doing this, but it seems a bit
               | weird to start your mouth watering at the notion of "I
               | can't wait to strip 11 million tons of rock out of the
               | side of this mountain, melt it down and refine it, so
               | that we can start being clean with it by recycling."
        
             | _coveredInBees wrote:
             | A big factor there is that demand for Lithium is growing
             | drastically and we don't really have that amount of Lithium
             | pre-mined and ready to be recycled in the first place.
        
             | gameswithgo wrote:
             | Can you go into detail as to how specifically it is not
             | clean, and how it compares to the resource extraction of
             | other things like steel, aluminum, oil, etc.
        
         | Pxtl wrote:
         | If people want truly green infrastructure, the only practical
         | options are nuclear power and densification -basically turn as
         | many cities as possible into Paris. LRTs don't need batteries
         | because they're hooked into the grid with catenary lines,
         | subways have 3rd rails, bikes run on human, and e-bikes use
         | only tiny batteries.
         | 
         | And while nuclear power isn't ideal, it's the only tech that
         | has fully decarbonized power grids at State level.
         | 
         | Otherwise we need battery power on an utterly insane level.
        
           | KarlKemp wrote:
           | This was the common mantra ca. 15 yes ago on Slashdot that
           | made you look extremely in-the-know, with that ineffable
           | quality of genius that cynicism is often mistaken for.
           | 
           | Have you read anything in the intervening decade-and-a-half?
           | Battery and solar power prices have come down by 90%+. Wind
           | by 70%. (https://cdn.arstechnica.net/wp-
           | content/uploads/2020/05/li-io... for batteries,
           | https://static.dw.com/image/56696354_7.png for the rest).
           | Nuclear power is more expensive than ever, and easily 3x as
           | much as the alternatives.
        
             | Pxtl wrote:
             | My point is that nowhere has successfully done it. No
             | jurisdiction that I know of has completed a changeover to
             | zero-carbon emissions power based on their wind/solar
             | production, while there are several that have been quietly
             | humming along on 100% nuclear for years.
             | 
             | While there have been massive advancements in wind/solar,
             | the only tech that has been successfully used to create the
             | backbone of a zero-carbon power-grid is nuclear.
        
           | crowbahr wrote:
           | Interestingly if we have significant excess production from
           | intermittent sources we can reduce our battery needs. Last I
           | read the best cost/benefit ratio was something like 7x the
           | energy production.
           | 
           | That said nuclear base load makes a _lot_ more sense.
        
             | Pxtl wrote:
             | I point to nuclear power simply because it's already proven
             | to work. Overbuilt wind/solar should work in theory, but
             | primarily nuclear-powered grids exist right now.
        
             | mrep wrote:
             | Where did you read that? Methane which already powers 40%
             | of the US electrical grid can be created and then turned
             | back in electricity in a Electricity-Gas-Electricity
             | process with a round trip efficiency of 30-38% [0]. There
             | is no way you'd need 7x production when you can use
             | surpluses to make methane or hydrogen.
             | 
             | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Power-to-gas
        
               | Pxtl wrote:
               | There's a whole spectrum of energy storage tech where the
               | tradeoff is efficiency vs cost. At the extreme end of
               | high cost with high efficiency you have magnetic energy
               | storage, then slightly less-efficient but lower cost you
               | have batteries, then in the middle you have things like
               | synthetic methane, cracking hydrogen, and pumping water
               | up-hill, and at the bottom for lowest-cost and lowest-
               | efficiency you have compressed air.
               | 
               | Finding the right balance of overbuilding supply and
               | storage efficiency is going to be a long process.
        
               | crowbahr wrote:
               | The goal was to have a long term hydrogen, mid/peaker
               | battery setup with the minimum cost while providing for
               | the entire grid.
               | 
               | Unfortunately I didn't take notes as to what the source
               | was and I read this about a year ago. Google has been
               | entirely useless as I've tried to dig it back up.
        
           | fennecfoxen wrote:
           | We can't turn US cities into Paris. Turning into Paris
           | requires infrastructure, like subways and the like! But
           | between tariffs on things like steel, gross administrative
           | incompetence, labor union shenanigans, and environmental
           | review laws, the US is incapable of building such
           | infrastructure.
           | 
           | The city of Milan built a new subway line, and some of the
           | cheaper subway stations cost EUR8 million. The city of New
           | York added a single wheelchair ramp to Avenue H which cost
           | $14 million. https://www.thecity.nyc/2021/8/17/22629915/mta-
           | looks-to-ramp...
           | 
           | Someone's going to complain "but environmental review is
           | important to protect the environment!" which is why NYC's
           | congestion charge is going to be delayed and litigated for
           | the next 10-20 years in environmental review while cars stuck
           | in traffic spew pollution into the environment.
           | 
           | And someone's going to complain about me mentioning labor
           | unions, too, and admittedly they're sometimes a small part of
           | the problem (when not suing under the environmental review
           | laws) but the Second Avenue Subway still had to give the
           | unions a six-figure payout for using a tunnel boring machine,
           | and every crane has to have someone employed as a full-time
           | oiler because it's still 1910 and we're on steam power.
           | European labor somehow manages to avoid these levels of
           | absurdity.
           | 
           | Not that this is necessarily the top problem. The notoriously
           | free-market pro-business right-wing New York Times (cough,
           | cough) brought over the guy who was in charge of Crossrail,
           | and he was shocked at how many people were standing around
           | the dig site doing nothing. The MTA had no idea why most of
           | them were there getting paid. The MTA also has a bad habit of
           | completing Phase 1 of a project, letting all the contractors
           | who know anything about it go on to other projects, then
           | starting again from scratch on Phase 2 a while later, so that
           | there's absolutely no in-house expertise.
        
             | saltminer wrote:
             | > We can't turn US cities into Paris. Turning into Paris
             | requires infrastructure, like subways and the like!
             | 
             | Houston famously has the largest highway in the US - the
             | Katy Freeway (I-10) is 20 lanes + 6 frontage lanes at its
             | widest, and it is an absolute eyesore [0]. Despite the
             | almost $3 billion spent to expand it to 26 lanes, traffic
             | has only gotten worse because of induced demand and the
             | fact that cars are a horrendously inefficient way of moving
             | people since the vast majority of traffic will always be
             | single-occupant. Once you need two lanes in either
             | direction to "fix traffic," you will never be able to keep
             | up with demand unless the area depopulates.
             | 
             | Houstonians who rely on public transit find that their
             | mobility is severely impaired. This is because our suburban
             | sprawl is fundamentally incompatible with the "transit must
             | be partially/wholly sustained by fares" logic which has
             | been employed since the systems began to fall into public
             | ownership as private operators began folding during the
             | post-WW2 white-flight to the suburbs.
             | 
             | Even if you have self-driving electric busses (no driver to
             | pay), you cannot provide sprawling neighborhoods with large
             | minimum lot sizes and detached single-family homes enforced
             | by zoning restrictions "good" bus service simply because of
             | the capital required to purchase enough vehicles to run
             | into these low-density areas regularly. And it should be
             | noted that sub-10 minutes is the headway you need to
             | provide for people to routinely take transit over their car
             | because that feels frequent enough that people don't plan
             | around the bus [1]. More than 20 minutes, and you have lost
             | most potential riders. But in many cities, even 15 minute
             | headways are the exception, not the norm. My home county
             | has a total of 5 bus lines that run once an hour and stop
             | at 8 PM, so the only people who ride it are those without
             | cars. The city I currently live in also has lines that run
             | once an hour (despite having a population of ~850k vs
             | 160k).
             | 
             | So at this point, you might be thinking that America is
             | forever doomed to repeat the abject failure of 20th-century
             | urban planning. But that's not the case: Houston wasn't
             | built around the car, it was destroyed and remade for the
             | car. Like other American cities, if you look at photos of
             | downtown from the early 1900s [2][3], the roads were much
             | smaller, and things were at a human-scale. Photos from the
             | 80s [4], by comparison, are filled with massive roads and
             | parking lots to an almost comical extent. Of course,
             | downtown Houston is nowhere near that bad today [5], but
             | there is still a ton of land producing next to no tax
             | revenue for the city because they are only used to store
             | cars.
             | 
             | My point is that our cities weren't always like this. We
             | can fix them. Yes, it costs money, and yes, it is
             | temporarily inconvenient, but we spent hundreds of
             | billions, if not trillions, rebuilding our cities around
             | the car, so we could easily fund comprehensive public
             | transportation, road-diets, bike lanes, and highway capping
             | (or even outright removal) projects by raising taxes on the
             | rich and eliminating wasteful spending like that which
             | regularly occurs in our defense industry. It means a
             | fundamental change to the American landscape again, of
             | course - the reason we even have large, sprawling
             | neighborhoods that cannot be retrofitted for good public
             | transit is a byproduct of previous federal policies (like
             | red-lining) and zoning restrictions - but as we head
             | towards a climate catastrophe, we have to do something, and
             | it's cheaper to pay up now. Electric self-driving cars will
             | not get us out of this mess; private industry cannot begin
             | to save the environment on its own, nor is it in its best
             | interest to do so.
             | 
             | > The city of Milan built a new subway line, and some of
             | the cheaper subway stations cost EUR8 million. The city of
             | New York added a single wheelchair ramp to Avenue H which
             | cost $14 million.
             | 
             | This is in large part because the MTA is a state agency.
             | The city has little real control over the MTA. Because the
             | NY legislature is in Albany, they are entirely detached
             | from the realities of city residents who have been hoping
             | for change for decades. Andy Byford is a great example of
             | this: he spearheaded the single greatest increase in subway
             | speeds in a generation, and the SPEED team he created has
             | continued to increase speeds across the system [6]. He is
             | also the reason CBTC is being deployed much more widely
             | across the system [7] (relative to its deployment when he
             | was appointed), and anyone who has taken the 7 or L at rush
             | hour has seen the effects of that: trains run so close
             | together that they oftentimes have to stop and wait for the
             | train in front of them to exit the station.
             | 
             | And Cuomo ran him out of town because he realized Byford
             | was the one getting good PR, rather than the media
             | worshipping him. It's not often that you find people who
             | genuinely care and are able to manage a juggernaut of an
             | agency and make meaningful improvements while warding off
             | meddling attempts from a hostile boss, and I doubt another
             | one will come along for awhile.
             | 
             | There are a lot of reasons the MTA has such high costs.
             | It's basically death by a thousand cuts - many individual
             | laws that, on their own, increase very little, but as a
             | whole have ballooned things to an absurd degree. And
             | because the state legislature doesn't take the MTA to go to
             | work in Albany, they have no reason to try and improve it.
             | There's also a large rural vs urban divide in the
             | legislature, which ultimately makes fixing the cost overrun
             | problems about as easy as making bidding on DoD contracts
             | more competitive.
             | 
             | Really, the best thing that could happen is for the MTA to
             | become a multi-state agency because it already serves NY
             | and CT (via MNR), and NJ gets the shortest straw despite
             | having tons of commuters who would love to not have to
             | drive. Regional planning is next to impossible with the
             | current situation. Combine PATH and the MTA (at minimum),
             | ideally NJTransit as well. Imagine being able to board a
             | train at Trenton and through-run all the way to New Haven
             | or Montauk. This would revolutionize passenger rail in the
             | region, and because all three states would have to agree to
             | such a venture, it would allow side-stepping many of the
             | cuts that plague the MTA today without having to explicitly
             | repeal the legislation. (Not that it would eliminate graft,
             | of course - PATH has plenty - but it would reduce a lot of
             | it.)
             | 
             | But more realistically, the most likely thing would be for
             | the MTA to return to city control. It would likely be much
             | better since local politicians actually use the system and
             | can be held directly to account without the rural vs urban
             | state divide that encourages not improving the status quo,
             | but would still suck for everyone across the Hudson.
             | 
             | [0] https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Katy-
             | Freeway.jpg
             | 
             | [1] https://spatialparalysis.xyz/blog/headway
             | 
             | [2] https://scholarship.rice.edu/handle/1911/62636
             | 
             | [3] https://www.houston.org/timeline
             | 
             | [4] https://i.redd.it/tz0j51a117n31.jpg
             | 
             | [5] https://i.imgur.com/uNL0GtY.jpeg
             | 
             | [6] https://new.mta.info/press-release/update-mta-new-york-
             | city-...
             | 
             | [7] https://ny.curbed.com/2018/6/4/17423376/nyc-subway-
             | andy-byfo...
        
             | chasd00 wrote:
             | Also don't forget, many people don't want to live in a
             | crowded, noisy, dirty, disease ridden city. You can count
             | me as part of that group.
        
               | Pxtl wrote:
               | Cities Aren't Loud: Cars Are Loud
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CTV-wwszGw8
               | 
               | edit: and I'm not saying that cities are our only option,
               | I'm saying that cities are our only option if we want to
               | avoid having to create and maintain an utterly staggering
               | amount of batteries.
        
               | mrtranscendence wrote:
               | > Also don't forget, many people don't want to live in a
               | crowded, noisy, dirty, disease ridden city.
               | 
               | I dispute that cities are necessarily dirty and disease
               | ridden, particularly the latter. There are models for
               | cities that would work in this regard (e.g. Tokyo,
               | Singapore).
               | 
               | That said, I don't necessarily have much sympathy for the
               | notion that we shouldn't rely on electric cars -- we
               | should just do the simpler option of _completely
               | restructuring American cities and reallocating vast
               | numbers of people_. Which would be overwhelmingly,
               | unfathomably expensive, as well as rely on people
               | actually wanting to _move_ to the new cities. (Or forcing
               | them to, I suppose.)
               | 
               | Speaking for myself, I like having a bit of space. My
               | very long term goal is to have a house or cabin in some
               | decent forest, secluded and private and peaceful. City
               | life just isn't appealing.
        
         | wibagusto wrote:
         | Let's hope it stays that way. But $1.5B is not a tiny sum and
         | I'm willing to bet the government will bend over backwards to
         | bring a bunch of "jobs" to the area at the expense of all
         | environmental concerns.
        
           | panick21_ wrote:
           | You have a delusional believe in the power of lobbying.
           | Establishing a mine in the US is incredibly hard. Even in
           | places with existing mining, establishing a new mine is a
           | major undertaking.
           | 
           | Mines even in mining friendly places is very, very hard.
           | Doing it mining unfriendly places where you have real popular
           | opposition is bordering on impossible.
        
           | tata71 wrote:
           | In Maine?
           | 
           | No shot.
        
           | afarrell wrote:
           | > at the expense of all environmental concerns
           | 
           | Greedy lobbyists in the state capital would object to this.
           | Ecotourism is seen by voters as one of Maine's largest
           | industries. Much of its real estate industry and its most
           | well-known brand (LL Bean) relies on it.
        
             | wibagusto wrote:
             | That's good news!
        
             | InitialLastName wrote:
             | Even its second most well known brand (Stephen King) relies
             | on it indirectly.
        
         | epistasis wrote:
         | I wish that the damage of lithium mining would be specified and
         | put into specific terms about what the damage is and what's
         | it's doing.
         | 
         | For example, fracking in California results in 26 acres of
         | toxic storage pools that are leaking and contaminating ground
         | water with specific toxic chemicals:
         | 
         | https://grist.org/accountability/fracking-waste-california-a...
         | 
         | However, every single story about the toxicity of battery
         | production remains vague and I haven't been able to find any
         | that specify what the damage is. I have found that indigenous
         | people are having their land used without much permission or
         | process, but the damage has never been specified.
         | 
         | Does anybody have some specifics about what's going on?
         | Presumably there must be an environmental cost but it's really
         | unclear what it is, or how it compares to the regular
         | destruction that we embrace from fossil fuels.
        
         | gameswithgo wrote:
         | Suppose 150k mile car that averages 30mpg. That is 5,000
         | gallons of fuel weighing 30,000 pounds. The amount of crude to
         | make that oil varies, so actual oil you have to extract and
         | ship and refine will be a bit more than that, and the
         | refinement process is also dirty.
         | 
         | So compare that 30,000 lbs of oil to the amount of lithium in a
         | Tesla battery pack, which is about 138lbs. 138lbs < 30,000lbs
         | 
         | Then figure in that those 30,000lbs of oil all go into the air
         | producing not only c02 which is changing our climate, but
         | particulates which are bad for our health and cognitive
         | function, vs the lithium in a battery pack which can be
         | recycled and/or re-used
         | 
         | This seemm like a large net win to me.
         | 
         | All of that said, yes, all of the resource extraction industry,
         | from the iron and aluminum to the oil and lithium, has a bad
         | history of responsible stewardship of the lands they exploit,
         | and I support forcing them to do a better job.
        
           | elif wrote:
           | Agree. The comparison drawn by the original commenter is
           | completely devoid of scale and avoids the existential nature
           | of global climate change.
        
           | rlpb wrote:
           | > So compare that 30,000 lbs of oil to the amount of lithium
           | in a Tesla battery pack, which is about 138lbs. 138lbs <
           | 30,000lbs
           | 
           | I think you need to account for the amount of material that
           | was mined to get to that 138lb battery. My understanding is
           | that it's orders of magnitudes more than what gets
           | removed/disrupted for oil. I don't know the figure (and I
           | welcome someone telling me) but I think it could well be in
           | excess of 30,000lbs of raw material mined.
           | 
           | There's also battery recycling to consider.
           | 
           | I don't know which way the result swings; I'm just saying
           | that it's much more complicated to figure out, and far less
           | clear cut, than you suggest.
        
             | gameswithgo wrote:
             | Yes a complete accounting of the net externalities of each
             | would be very complicated, and I apologize that I am not
             | prepared to present a 200 page research report here in the
             | forum. A bit of napkin math can go a long way.
             | 
             | How much dirt you have to dig up to get a thing isn't
             | really much of a measure of impact though. If I dig up
             | 50,000lbs of dirt to get 138lbs of lithium, but the dirt
             | just goes back to being dirt, no problem. If on the other
             | hand sulfuric acid leeching makes it an uninhabitable
             | wasteland for years, problem.
             | 
             | But yes in the end, recycling batteries is going to be the
             | real big win, where all the components can be reused rather
             | than mined.
        
             | panick21_ wrote:
             | That is true. However much of that stuff can basically be
             | piled and is not really damaging to the environment.
             | Lithium is usually only about <5% of any given rock.
             | 
             | That is far better then blowing tons of things into the
             | air. Its just a stack of crushed rocks.
        
               | epistasis wrote:
               | Or salts left over from brine extraction, which is a
               | frequent method of lithium extraction (and other
               | resources, too).
        
         | goohle wrote:
         | Lithium hard rock mining produces about 15 tonnes of CO2 per
         | tonne of Lithium, but Lithium geothermal mining generates
         | energy instead: https://cornishlithium.com/projects/lithium-in-
         | geothermal-wa...
        
       | HenryKissinger wrote:
       | Leave it. Let's not strip the planet of every natural resource.
       | The environment has suffered enough damage.
        
         | panick21_ wrote:
         | Should we stop all farming and mining? Should we never mine
         | anything new?
         | 
         | And btw we are not 'strip' planet, we are simply moving things
         | from one place on the planet to another.
         | 
         | Does the earth have some sort of inherent will that lithium
         | should stay where it is?
         | 
         | If only we could kill all humans then finally the planet could
         | heal.
        
         | ryan93 wrote:
         | Has the IQ of hacker news fallen over time? Half the people in
         | this thread think we can have 8 billion humans and make zero
         | demands on the environment.
        
         | someguydave wrote:
         | That choice is akin to saying: allow China to use the cheapest
         | methods to extract ores in Africa.
        
         | sss111 wrote:
         | Wouldn't it be better for the planet if we move away from
         | fossil fuels, and Lithium could help us in that process.
        
           | alistairSH wrote:
           | That depends. How much of the earth's surface needs to be
           | mined to obtain enough lithium and other minerals to supply
           | the world with batteries? And what will we use to charge he
           | batteries?
        
       | redmaverick wrote:
       | Will the people of Maine get any pay off from this when the Govt.
       | makes their money?
        
         | alistairSH wrote:
         | Doubtful. The government probably won't even get much. The
         | lion's share of benefit will go to some mining corporation's
         | stockholders and executives.
        
       | burnt_toast wrote:
       | As a resident I'm curious to how this will play out. I have no
       | strong opinions either way but I feel like it's going to be a
       | long legal battle.
       | 
       | The current ongoing thing here is that the power company wants to
       | build a power corridor to transport electricity from Canada to
       | Mass. The power company has gone through questionable means to do
       | this and the locals are rightfully unhappy about it. It's hard to
       | not hear about it right now.
        
       | AreYouSirius wrote:
       | MUSK makes tweet and he generates 2 billion, who gives a ...
       | about 1,5 billion USD of something you have to work for ?
        
       | datameta wrote:
       | > By 2030, the International Energy Agency estimates that supply
       | from existing mines and projects under construction will produce
       | only half the amount of lithium and cobalt necessary to meet
       | international needs.
       | 
       | The mining has to be does somewhere at some point... barring a
       | breakthrough in alternative battery chemistry in the next half
       | decade. Not saying it _needs_ to be in this mine, but the
       | countries that do currently supply the world with lithium are
       | securing a greater economic foothold. Of course I 'd wish for
       | every nation to be all honky-dory with each other but there are
       | regimes whose optimization function is absolute domestic power
       | and international domination.
       | 
       |  _Please_ refrain from pointing out the tired old truth that the
       | US was or is such a country.
        
       | mdasen wrote:
       | I think that logically, it doesn't make sense for Maine to change
       | its laws to allow this to move forward. It's worth $1.5B and
       | there are about 1.5M people in Maine. That's $1,000 per resident.
       | Given that there are costs to extract the metal from the ground,
       | let's say that 20% of that $1.5B could be profit (which I'm
       | guessing is a very high estimate). That means $200 per Maine
       | resident. Given that Maine doesn't own the land/mineral rights,
       | let's say they can put a 30% tax on those profits. $60 per
       | resident.
       | 
       | Realistically, $1.5B worth of lithium is a tiny amount of value
       | for a US state. If I were Maine, I'd say no at $1.5B. You're
       | probably going to get less than $60 per Maine resident - and
       | that's a one-off $60, not even an annual $60.
       | 
       | The article keeps talking about how we need lithium. Ultimately,
       | we don't seem to need it that much given how cheap it is. If I
       | were Maine, I'd say "not now". If Lithium prices go up 100-1,000x
       | in the future, then reevaluate. $6,000-$60,000 per Maine resident
       | might be a useful amount of money. $60 isn't.
       | 
       | At current prices, any environmental damage is likely to cost
       | more than the taxes on the profits would cover. $90M in taxes
       | (30% of a 20% profit margin) won't clean up a lot.
       | 
       | I'm not saying that it's a global optimum for Maine to leave this
       | lithium in the earth. I'm just noting that there isn't a lot of
       | incentive for Maine to extract it. The article talks about other
       | countries with less strict labor and environmental rules. That is
       | true, but why should Maine risk its environment for such little
       | money?
       | 
       | Why should Maine risk environmental damage for $60 per person?
       | $90M in tax revenue is nothing compared to the cost to clean up
       | environmental disasters. It's costing over $6M to clean up a
       | single park in my town, never mind the type of environmental
       | damage that might be caused by mining 11M tons of lithium. It
       | seems like it would be foolish for Maine to alter the laws to
       | allow the mining to take place at current prices.
        
         | the-alchemist wrote:
         | Excellent analysis. People forget the economics of things from
         | the state / people's perspective.
         | 
         | Also, a certain number of people, very small but not zero, will
         | get sick and die. All of those nasty diseases that come from
         | any mine operation, especially something nasty like lithium.
         | 
         | Those sick people will go on Maine's disability / unemployment
         | insurance / LTC / Medicaid / Medicare's system. Some of those
         | people will live decades with cancer, their medical care paid
         | for by the state (as it should).
         | 
         | At current prices, like you said, it might literally cost Maine
         | more to open the mine than to leave the lithium in the ground,
         | especially once you factor in environmental cleanup and
         | healthcare costs.
        
         | Ekaros wrote:
         | Another viewpoint to consider this is how long will it take to
         | exploit this? 20 years, that is 75M in revenue per year, 30
         | years 50M and 50 years would be 30M. Not actually that high
         | revenue numbers. 20% as profit from those, which sound
         | optimistic would be 15, 10 or 6 million a year. Now tax those
         | and on scale of state it isn't very big once again...
        
         | SuoDuanDao wrote:
         | I don't disagree with your analysis, but it's important to
         | remember that most states think of the 80% of that $1.5B that
         | isn't profit as going to their citizens in the form of local
         | spending.
        
           | volkl48 wrote:
           | For a bit of context:
           | 
           | This happens to be in the same vicinity as the most popular
           | ski resort in the state, and a number of other popular
           | outdoor attractions.
           | 
           | It's not quite your average rural economy that's desperate
           | for any sort of new business/jobs/investment.
           | 
           | ------
           | 
           | A mine has to be weighed against the risk it represents to
           | their existing economy - both in actual impacts of
           | environmental disasters, and reputational if there's any
           | negative stories coming out about it.
           | 
           | Tourists don't want to go have their destination wedding in
           | the town that's in the news regularly because of X or Y
           | pollution, even if they can't see it and it's not a risk to
           | them on their visit.
        
         | masklinn wrote:
         | Also for an other reference, Maine's GSP is 52 billions, so
         | that's a week and a half of it, as a one-shot.
        
         | dboshardy wrote:
         | You're assuming they're not thinking about it as a potential
         | lobbying payday for the policy-makers themselves.
        
         | aww_dang wrote:
         | https://bangordailynews.com/2018/03/02/news/lobster-supply-c...
         | 
         | >The estimated $1 billion impact is on top of the income that
         | lobstermen earn when they bring their catch to shore and sell
         | it, which in 2017 was $433 million statewide.
         | 
         | According to this study Maine nets 1.5B per year from lobsters
         | alone.
        
       | vvoaterr wrote:
       | Why won't they just lift the regulations, so we can have the free
       | money? --Maine
        
       | op00to wrote:
       | It's only worth 1.5B if you can extract it as an open pit mine,
       | which is terrifically terrible for the environment. Waving that
       | number around is nonsense because it ignores the societal and
       | environmental costs of open pit mining.
        
       | toss1 wrote:
       | >>The company extracted roughly 800,000 tons of copper and zinc
       | before flooding the area, turning it into Goose Pond.
       | 
       | >>The former mine is now a Superfund site, and a 2013 study by
       | researchers at Dartmouth College found widespread evidence of
       | toxic metals in nearby sediment, water and fish. Cleanup costs,
       | borne by taxpayers, are estimated between $23 million and $45
       | million.
       | 
       | Yup, that company successfully extracted the value and
       | externalized the costs onto the taxpayers - they got the benefit
       | and we hold the bag of crap.
       | 
       | Which is precisely why the laws were passed in the first place,
       | because this was not an exception, but standard procedure.
       | 
       | If they want to relent and allow standard mining, then they need
       | to _require_ an up-front bond of the appropriate amount to fund
       | the cleanup, on the scale of $100 million.
       | 
       | Anything short of that is utterly foolish (it's not like we're
       | ignorant of standard mining practices).
       | 
       | <sarc>I'm sure the financial genius MBAs can figure it out (along
       | with how to still screw the general public plebes). </sarc>
        
       | netcan wrote:
       | Something about the economics of lithium, and other recently
       | important minerals confuses me.
       | 
       | How is a $1.5bn deposit, a major, significant source? That's
       | would be about 10 days worth of oil. The whole global lithium
       | market is just $3bn-$4bn pa. The rare earth market is about
       | $2.5bn annually. Seems super low, relative to
       | headlines/concerns/etc.
       | 
       | How are these materials simultaneously of such importance, and
       | also so economically minor. What am I missing here?
        
         | philipkglass wrote:
         | These elements are critical but tiny parts of a number of
         | products. Downstream users and even governments make a lot of
         | noise about ensuring affordable supplies, but major
         | multinational miners are slow and cautious about developing new
         | projects. The total addressable market isn't that large. Miners
         | aren't interested in over-supplying these commodities as a
         | favor to manufacturers of batteries, magnets, or light bulbs.
         | Especially for rare earth elements, market demand is so limited
         | that one new major producer could significantly reduce market
         | prices.
        
           | netcan wrote:
           | Why doesn't someone just "solve this problem with money." I
           | realize this is a simplification, but any number of actors
           | could affordably silo a massive stockpile and make the risk
           | of supply deficits go away entirely.
           | 
           | Some of the politicians bringing this stuff up as major
           | future risks could personally afford to seriously mitigated
           | on their personal accounts.
        
             | philipkglass wrote:
             | The United States used to stockpile raw materials for
             | military use. A lot of that ended after the Cold War did
             | because it was considered inefficient. (And it probably
             | was; efficiency and resiliency are at odds here.)
        
         | Strom wrote:
         | > _How are these materials simultaneously of such importance,
         | and also so economically minor. What am I missing here?_
         | 
         | My guess is the amount of skill required to get these
         | materials. Miners can be paid pennies and they'll still do the
         | work. Something similar to how garbage takeaway is of very high
         | importance, but economically pretty minor.
        
           | netcan wrote:
           | Waste management is a multi-trillion dollar industry.
        
             | Strom wrote:
             | Come on now. That's changing the goal posts. Natural
             | resource extraction is also a multi-trillion dollar
             | industry.
        
               | netcan wrote:
               | I'm not seeing the analogy. The lithium market is
               | surprisingly small for the same reasons that plastics
               | are...?
               | 
               | I concede the point that small individual parts of the
               | overall waste economy are prominent problems... but
               | where's the way back to lithium.
               | 
               | Lithium is cheap enough that Elon could buy all of it
               | with just his bitcoin. He's a guy with a use for lithium.
               | Why not solve all possible scarcity concerns with the
               | jingle of a purse. More realistishly... Unless there's
               | something I'm missing, I can't see how a lithium price
               | spike could affect the price of an electric car
               | noticeably.
               | 
               | That doesn't scream scarcity.
        
               | Strom wrote:
               | My analogy wasn't about any special processing or any
               | special segment of garbage. It was a more basic
               | comparison that we as a western society depend heavily on
               | regular garbage takeaway (because we consume so much
               | single use crap) but the people who take away our garbage
               | aren't paid much and get looked down upon on top of that.
               | So it's an important part of society that is severely
               | underpriced compared to the value it provides. One of the
               | primary reasons it can be so underpriced is because the
               | workforce can be trivially trained (relatively speaking)
               | and there seems to always be enough people interested in
               | working.
               | 
               | From your comment that the lithium market is so small,
               | yet always talked about as criticial - I guessed that
               | perhaps that's because it's similarly easy to find and
               | train lithium miners.
               | 
               | As for Elon and lithium, I remember recently watching
               | some interview or talk that he gave, where he mentioned
               | that he doesn't consider lithium a problem at all
               | precicely because it is so abundant in the US.
               | 
               | So yes, to me it seems as well that there is no scarcity
               | to fear. There might be a temporary shortage, but it can
               | be solved rather quickly with money.
        
       | exabrial wrote:
       | This is sort of disheartening... Maine _would_ allow the mining
       | if it were properly handled, but because it 's cheaper to do in
       | third world countries, companies will do it there. Electric has a
       | very dirty side :/
        
       | smarx007 wrote:
       | The key bit:
       | 
       | "Yet lithium is a metal, and state regulations passed in 2017
       | prohibit mining for metals in open pits of more than three acres,
       | which would be the only way to cost-effectively extract lithium
       | at Plumbago North. "I don't know of any underground and manganese
       | or lithium mines in the world," said Dr. John Slack, a geologist
       | who co-authored a separate upcoming paper on critical minerals in
       | Maine. "Because those metals have a relatively low cost, in terms
       | of their concentration per ton or per ounce, you need to excavate
       | large volumes of rock cheaply in order to economically and
       | profitably produce the metal you're interested in.""
       | 
       | Basically, Maine demands that whatever mining is done, is done
       | underground, like coal. But open carrier mining is cheaper. If
       | all this lithium is so important, someone will find a way to mine
       | it properly underground, I guess.
        
         | JacobDotVI wrote:
         | I find this more relevant:
         | 
         | "But [the lithium] reserves also would not present the same
         | type of potential environmental issues as ... other base metal
         | sulfide deposits in Maine, such as Bald Mountain. That's
         | because the Plumbago North deposit does not occur in, or
         | contain, sulfide-rich rocks, said Slack and Simmons. Mining for
         | lithium there would instead be similar to quarrying for granite
         | or gravel."
         | 
         | Are rock queries outlawed? I don't believe so. Thus, is this a
         | lithium rock query or a lithium mineral mine?
        
           | Loughla wrote:
           | 3 acres, I'm assuming, is the issue. That's not really that
           | big. It's actually really quite small.
           | 
           | The only open pit mine I'm familiar with is measured in the
           | literal thousands of acres. Hell, the local gravel pit that
           | supplies the VERY rural area I live in is over 70 acres.
        
             | JacobDotVI wrote:
             | I think this is part of that distinction. Likely a gravel
             | pit would _not_ be considered "mineral mining" and so would
             | be permitted at a size greater than 3 acres.
        
         | tantalor wrote:
         | If all this lithium is so important, someone will find a way to
         | change the law.
        
           | MrBuddyCasino wrote:
           | See fracking. Unfortunately, it was so profitable they
           | irreversably poisoned the ground water to do it.
        
         | postingawayonhn wrote:
         | It's only important at the right price.
        
       | gwbas1c wrote:
       | > "The call to restrict open pit mining -- that's the open sore
       | in the face of the Earth argument," said Dr. Martin Yates,
       | laboratory manager and instructor at the School of Earth and
       | Climate Sciences at the University of Maine. "Once you've opened
       | a hole like that, it's not really going to grow back."
       | 
       | Maine is full of holes in the ground where granite was extracted.
       | I can totally understand why some of the population wants to
       | strictly regulate mining.
       | 
       | I went camping in Maine a few years ago, and the campground had
       | visible artifacts from mining. The people running the campground
       | told us that "everyone" goes swimming in deep flooded granite
       | pits.
       | 
       | The campground itself had a flooded granite pit near the
       | bathroom. It had a paddle boat that I used, but swimming was
       | prohibited because of "insurance" and supposed abandoned mining
       | equipment in the bottom of the pit. There was also an abandoned
       | pump visible at the top of the pit.
       | 
       | When we walked around, there was surface granite clearly stripped
       | away as well.
        
         | throwaway0a5e wrote:
         | > I can totally understand why some of the population wants to
         | strictly regulate mining.
         | 
         | Regulating resource extraction out of existence is popular in
         | southeast Maine where the economy runs off of tourism and
         | retirement savings from people in Massachusetts for a variety
         | of reasons that biol down to ideology and no skin in the game.
        
       | theshadowknows wrote:
       | Is it me being jaded or is a billion or two dollars not really
       | that much money anymore? I mean sure, if someone were to give me
       | a billion dollars I'd be excited (pending dealing with taxes
       | etc). But I mean..theres what a couple thousand people with
       | personal fortunes that could buy the entire deposit several times
       | over, and even more companies that could do it...maybe it'd be a
       | great windfall to the local economy? But if Maine is anything
       | like North Carolina then the majority of the money will get
       | earmarked for future infrastructure projects and then get slowly
       | siphoned off by the politicians over a few years so it won't
       | really matter.
        
         | Ekaros wrote:
         | Billion dollar is lot even for a value of a company.
         | 
         | On other hand with deposits it's nothing. Reasonably
         | considering the needed investment for exploitation from
         | equipment, planning, permissions, workers etc. I really feel
         | that currently it is nowhere near enough to justify
         | exploitation. Big mines are not cheap to build or operate. I
         | doubt 1,5B of material is enough to justify initial investment.
        
         | monkeybutton wrote:
         | You're not jaded, the scale seems small in comparison to things
         | like the Ring of Fire in northern Ontario or even just Sudbury
         | on its own, where the value of mineral deposits are pitched in
         | the 100s of billions.
        
         | someguydave wrote:
         | nothing really matters
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | csours wrote:
         | Not just you. That was my first thought too. Reminds me of the
         | x-googler's post about "can't count that low"
        
         | ehnto wrote:
         | We're exposed to billionaires and things priced in the billions
         | all the time through news and media, but we forget that it's
         | still an exceptional amount of money for a very, very limited
         | few. Like how Instagram shows you all the exceptionally lucky
         | people on holidays and with expensive cars and incredible
         | beauty, so you get to feel like it's ubiquitous and you're just
         | missing out. But the truth is that almost everyone just goes to
         | work everyday, looking normal, driving normal cars, even the
         | influencers.
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | A billion dollars is a lot of money.
           | 
           | A billion dollars worth of minerals is not a lot of minerals.
           | It would be worth extracting if it were something readily
           | shipped and processed like gold or crude. But from what I
           | understand of lithium processing, just the equipment along
           | might ring up in the hundreds of millions, and you still have
           | to pay to get it extracted, processed, etc.
        
       | loufe wrote:
       | A couple comments already mentioned it but $1.5B is not a huge
       | number for the mining industry. Many mines in the US/Can bring in
       | that amount in revenue on a yearly basis.
        
       | xor99 wrote:
       | Lithium batteries seem to blow up a lot or a lot more than they
       | should. People say that this doesn't matter for the best made
       | batteries, which is fair in those cases, but judging safety
       | relative to an ideal is not wise.
       | 
       | Its also absolutely terrible for the local environment to mine
       | it. That should be well known by now (e.g. effects in Bolivia /
       | Chile).
       | 
       | I'm more interested to see where Catl and Faradion or others go
       | with sodium ion technology. Zinc and potassium are also good
       | candidates too. For now, the lithium show continues though
       | unfortunately.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Compared to ICE cars, EV car fires are not that common. There
         | are a couple of hundred people that die in ICE vehicle related
         | fires and around 170000 cars that catch fire every year in the
         | US. Check here for a breakdown of ways that can happen:
         | https://www.consumernotice.org/personal-injury/vehicle-safet...
         | 
         | Here's a beautiful quote for you: "There are more than 19
         | vehicle fires every hour in the United States. They account for
         | 1 in every 8 calls that fire departments respond to."
         | 
         | That puts the handful of burning EVs that catch the news once
         | in a while a bit in perspective. It does happen but not that
         | often. Even if you consider there are about 20x more ICE
         | vehicles sold in the US, it's still quite a lot in comparison.
         | 
         | Anyway, lithium battery fires are comparatively slow so mostly
         | people just get out of the vehicle. Basically, you stop the
         | car, get out and call the firemen. Petrol tanks going boom is
         | less common than Hollywood movies make it seem but still, they
         | occasionally do blow up with people still inside the car. Not a
         | good place to be when a few gallons of fuel is combusting.
         | Hence a couple hundred casualties every year.
        
           | xor99 wrote:
           | Point taken on EVs! My only experience is using them for
           | robot builds and it may be the quality of the battery thats
           | at issue.
           | 
           | In comparison to fossil fuels lithium is obviously way better
           | but I think long term I would prefer to use sodium based
           | batteries due to their abundance, ease of manufacture, and
           | potential lower extraction-related pollution. Explosion
           | related concerns are not the best counter argument.
        
         | xor99 wrote:
         | Think about how much easier it would be to extract sodium. If
         | half the effort went into making those batteries better the
         | lithium scramble could have a chance of ending. Zinc bromine is
         | another good option which would be relatively ok in terms of
         | availability.
        
       | bluecalm wrote:
       | I am clueless about it but isn't $1.5B deposit a really small one
       | in grand scheme of things (that is how much is going to be needed
       | in coming years)?
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-10-27 23:01 UTC)