[HN Gopher] AMD Short Interest Has Grown by 234% in Nine Months ...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       AMD Short Interest Has Grown by 234% in Nine Months Reveals Data
        
       Author : mgh2
       Score  : 65 points
       Date   : 2021-10-23 14:36 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (wccftech.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (wccftech.com)
        
       | mgh2 wrote:
       | Does this have anything to do with GME + Robinhood + WSB saga?
       | 
       | https://hothardware.com/news/amd-robinhood-gamestop-gme-shor...
        
       | programmertote wrote:
       | For someone who is at the beginner level of financial trading
       | knowledge, what does it mean for a particular stock to have high
       | short interest? Does that mean there are so many people who are
       | betting against AMD of late (meaning, that the market thinks the
       | company is going to underperform in the near future)? Thanks in
       | advance for your explanation!
        
         | silisili wrote:
         | Short interest refers to number of shares (vs number of
         | people), but you've got the idea.
         | 
         | I hesitate to write a lot because there's always 'well,
         | actually' clauses that sends you down a rabbit hole(or off a
         | cliff), but simplified it's people selling shares they don't
         | own, with an agreement to buy them later. The hope for the
         | short seller is that the price will be cheaper in the future.
        
         | 300bps wrote:
         | "Float" is the number of shares that a company has sold and are
         | available to trade.
         | 
         | "Short Interest" is the number of shares that have been
         | borrowed and sold into the market.
         | 
         | So having high short interest just means one or more people are
         | betting the share price of AMD will go down so that they can
         | profit.
         | 
         | Buying a stock (aka a long position) has a finite level of
         | risk. If you buy 1 share for $100 your risk is limited to
         | losing $100.
         | 
         | Selling a stock short (aka a short position) has infinite risk.
         | For example, someone that sold 1 share of Amazon short in
         | November of 1997 for $5 has lost over $10,000 factoring in
         | Amazon's current stock price and the splits the stock has had
         | over the years.
         | 
         | When short interest is high the danger of a short squeeze is
         | higher than usual. Picture what would happen if AMD stock price
         | doubled. As everyone is buying the stock, short sellers would
         | also be forced to buy the stock either to stop rampant losses
         | or due to a margin call. This can make the price of a stock
         | with high short interest rise dramatically.
         | 
         | Good article on historic short squeezes:
         | 
         | https://www.ig.com/en/trading-strategies/what-were-the-bigge...
        
         | seoaeu wrote:
         | No, there's an equal number of people* on the opposite side of
         | those bets. If there was an imbalance between people thinking
         | the stock is worth more than the current price and people
         | believing the stock is worth less, then that would cause the
         | price to move until it balanced out.
         | 
         | *Technically an equal number of dollars
        
           | mrweasel wrote:
           | Wasn't that the problem with GameStop, the short sells had
           | shorted more stocks than was actually in circulation?
        
             | vdjao wrote:
             | Identity A borrows a share from B. A sells the share to C
             | in hopes of buying it back later at a lower price. C
             | decides to loan their share to D.
             | 
             | A: has one share loaned out
             | 
             | B: owes A one share
             | 
             | C: has one share loaned out
             | 
             | D: owes C one share.
             | 
             | Two shorted shares from one share
        
             | mason55 wrote:
             | That did happen but the latest SEC report showed that it
             | didn't really have much impact on the price
        
             | seoaeu wrote:
             | The problem with GameStop was that many redditors _thought_
             | there was more shorts than total stock available and that
             | this would make it impossible for all of the short sellers
             | to cover their position. In reality, a single unit of stock
             | can be borrowed and sold short multiple times without
             | really causing any problems
        
           | ArtTimeInvestor wrote:
           | I think it depends on the structure of the deals. I can
           | imagine a structure where shorts _do_ signal an imbalance:
           | A lends a share from B and promises to give it back in a
           | year.         A pays B a lending fee of $10.         A sells
           | the share to C for $100.
           | 
           | Now C will make money if the price goes up by any amount. But
           | for A to make money, the price needs to drop at least 10%.
        
             | seoaeu wrote:
             | In your example the bet is between A and B. If the price in
             | a year is say $80 then yes A makes a $10 profit. But in
             | that situation B loses the same amount: they started with
             | $100 of stock, and a year later ended with $10 cash and $80
             | of stock. Conversely, B makes a profit if the stock goes
             | down by anything less than 10%. This is a really good deal
             | for B!
        
         | Jorge1o1 wrote:
         | A stock can be sold short, meaning you receive cash from your
         | broker now, and you promise to give them the share at some
         | point in the future. This is pretty much a negative view on the
         | stock because you're hoping you can sell to open at $120 and
         | buy to close at $100 and keep the difference for yourself.
         | 
         | Short interest is the number of shares in all the short
         | positions that have been opened but not closed yet, and it is a
         | bearish indicator. It doesn't necessarily mean that MANY people
         | think the market is going to underperform though, it could
         | actually be just a handful of hedge funds with massive
         | positions.
         | 
         | It also doesn't have too much to do with the long term
         | performance of a company. It's probably better to interpret it
         | as a view on the share price rather than on the long-term
         | performance of the company. (interpreting any financial ratio
         | or metric in isolation is tough)
         | 
         | Another interesting implication of high short interest is this
         | idea of "Days To Cover" which is short interest / average daily
         | volume.
         | 
         | In situations where days to cover is very high, shorts can find
         | themselves unable to close their positions, even though the
         | market is moving away from them (aka up). This leads to a short
         | squeeze - famously with GME this year.
        
           | agumonkey wrote:
           | I'm surprised some wealthy cryptonerd didn't tickle this
           | stock GME style.
        
           | kklisura wrote:
           | > A stock can be sold short, meaning you receive cash from
           | your broker now, and you promise to give them the share at
           | some point in the future.
           | 
           | Just like OP, I'm also at the beginner level at financial
           | trading, but I think you're explaining either options or
           | margin with your first sentence, right? With shorting you
           | borrow a stock (where you pay interest on it) and immediately
           | sell it. When the price of stock falls, you then buy it and
           | return it. Is this correct?
        
             | seangrogg wrote:
             | So your parent _implied_ borrowing and selling the stock
             | immediately to  "receive cash from your broker now" and by
             | doing so they are required to return the stock (unless the
             | company goes bankrupt). In this way, you are both correct
             | about what shorting a stock is.
             | 
             | However, options are NOT like this. With options, the write
             | side could receive a premium on their side of a contract
             | for guaranteeing either to sell the shares at a specified
             | price (a write-call) or guaranteeing to buy the shares at a
             | specified price (a write-put). In either case, the person
             | buying that contract can choose to either execute that
             | contract or let it expire, meaning it could be the case
             | that the writer (who receives a premium) may never have to
             | act further (because the contract buyer never executes it,
             | so the writer just pockets the full premium).
        
       | short12 wrote:
       | Amd is the whipping boy of wall street for the last two decades
       | with high levels of shorting along the way. I wonder how many
       | shortsellers they've destroyed over the years
        
       | quickthrowman wrote:
       | The short interest is mostly a merger arbitrage play--AMD is in
       | the process of acquiring Xilinx.
       | 
       | When a merger happens the acquirer falls in value and the target
       | rises in value (in general).
       | 
       | I'm long AMD.
        
       | darth_avocado wrote:
       | I don't like clickbait titles like this.
       | 
       | > short interest has grown 234%
       | 
       | If the original interest was 1% of the float and now it's 234%
       | grown, it is still an insignificant number. You'll always see
       | about 5% short interest in the healthiest of the companies, it's
       | when it starts going nuts like amc when you pay attention.
        
         | mettamage wrote:
         | I once made a 20x return (I bought Cardano for fun in 2018).
         | 
         | On $33. That's still $666. But if it was $1000, it'd have been
         | $20000.
         | 
         | So there's that.
        
           | CyberDildonics wrote:
           | What does this have to do with the current thread?
        
             | kbenson wrote:
             | It points out that percentage of growth is a valid and
             | useful metric depending on the situation. As root comment
             | noted, it doesn't matter much if it was very small, but
             | that's not always the case. Additionally, absolute numbers
             | aren't always useful for similar reasons, but affecting the
             | opposite spectrum. A headline might note something has
             | risen by billions, but if that amounts to growing by 5%, is
             | that really any better of a way to represent things than
             | growing a large percentage on a small amount?
        
               | mettamage wrote:
               | This is the point indeed. I once doubled my revenue one
               | day, it went from $2 to $4. You think I joke but I was a
               | kid back then. As a kid it was _actually_ quite
               | meaningful to double that particular amount.
               | 
               | Now I wouldn't care about having a 100% return on $2.
               | Perhaps if there's a principle behind it that's
               | interesting I might care, but I wouldn't care much about
               | the money made.
               | 
               | But having 100% return on $2 million. Well, let's just
               | say I'd care.
        
         | alimbada wrote:
         | It's WCCFTech. They're well known for clickbait.
        
           | ksec wrote:
           | While WCCFtech has gotten quite a bit better after all the
           | bashing from 2016. It is still no where near good enough to
           | be on HN.
        
       | evadne wrote:
       | This is old news from August
        
         | bryanlarsen wrote:
         | Short interest has declined significantly since August.
         | 
         | https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/AMD/short-interest/
        
       | oblak wrote:
       | Is it too late to buy more AMD stock? Got mine back at $11 and
       | looking at what it is now, I can't help but want to kick own ass
       | my for being a pussy and only dropping a few grand.
       | 
       | In any case, thank you Mrs Su
        
         | mccorrinall wrote:
         | _Purely technical speaking & NFA_
         | 
         | Right now? Yes, too late. Price at the beginning of October was
         | 99.51 USD, now it's 119.83 USD. 20% increase since the 99.51
         | re-test.
         | 
         | But you could buy some put options, since we reached the same
         | level of resistance as in August. Imo it's not a bad idea to
         | secure your position against a pullback, especially since the
         | earnings are announced next week!
        
           | oblak wrote:
           | Price was about 90 USD this time last year. Not a huge gain
           | in 12 months. I really don't get what prompts AMDs highs and
           | lows. I am sure it was like 107 just a couple of weeks ago
           | and they haven't had any major new announcements yet. Just
           | reaffirmed what was already known, no?
           | 
           | Any links you could share? I've been trying to avoid seeking
           | alpha. Is that a mistake?
        
             | Bombthecat wrote:
             | And then you have stocks like tesla, where we left
             | reality..
        
         | BryanBeshore wrote:
         | I feel the same with CloudFlare ($NET). But be happy you got in
         | on at least something.
        
           | oblak wrote:
           | I wanted to buy at $2 but got caught in a series of personal
           | issues and didn't have the time. There went my only chance of
           | ever making any serious money. I had a feeling things were
           | going well, just not this well.
           | 
           | After all AMD went to 30+, then dropped to 18 and stayed
           | there for a while. As I said above, I really don't get it.
           | Almost blind luck I made any money at all.
        
         | alimbada wrote:
         | Buy XLNX if you decide to buy. Once the merger goes through
         | XLNX shares will be converted to 1.723 AMD shares.
        
       | logronoide wrote:
       | Things have changed since the articule was published. The trend
       | goes downwards:
       | 
       | https://www.nasdaq.com/market-activity/stocks/amd/short-inte...
        
       | gnarbarian wrote:
       | a war over Taiwan with TSMC right in the middle would certainly
       | cause some issues for AMD.
        
         | reacharavindh wrote:
         | I know you meant that casually, but I think it could be an
         | American powerplay to keep China in check. If historical
         | American influence are any indicator, they are not going to sit
         | idly by and watch China achieve great feats and eat away
         | American domination. They are probably strategising right now
         | to stifle this growth. If so, TSMC could become a collateral.
         | Intel would become the American reliable silicon provider for
         | the western world.
         | 
         | I feel like a conspiracy theorist saying what I said, but a
         | part of me seriously believes USA is capable of doing and
         | thinking exactly like this.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-10-23 23:02 UTC)