[HN Gopher] Predicting stock market returns from news photos
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Predicting stock market returns from news photos
Author : sizzle
Score : 51 points
Date : 2021-10-22 18:35 UTC (4 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.rmit.edu.au)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.rmit.edu.au)
| [deleted]
| yellow_lead wrote:
| I didn't read the whole study and this is a pre-proof but I'm not
| very optimistic about claims like this. There are often many data
| biases that are hard to root out.
|
| https://sci-hubtw.hkvisa.net/10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.06.002
| m3kw9 wrote:
| Is probably another case of "you think you are good, but it was
| just luck"
| black_13 wrote:
| Boy everyone forgets 2001 and 2008 and the devastation
| paulpauper wrote:
| I dunno if this is related to the article because its pay-walled,
| but elon tweeting a picture of dogs does seem to make doge-themed
| coins go up
| java-man wrote:
| $39.95 (for academic use).
|
| Excellent! I am sure the research was paid for by the Australian
| taxpayers, but it's Elsevier who makes money from publication.
| personjerry wrote:
| This is silly because the photo selections are predicated on the
| news articles.
|
| Which implies the articles for that day are already published.
|
| Which means this classifier basically "reads the market news
| correctly based on the pictures within".
| Animats wrote:
| From the article: _" It works by analysing the 'top lists' of
| editorial pictures on stock image website Getty. Using machine
| learning, the algorithm produces a daily score based on the types
| of photos used in global news reports. Lead author Dr Angel Zhong
| said investors could use this information to better predict daily
| stock market returns, based on the mood of investors worldwide."_
|
| Not, "Angel Zhong Fund announces 142% gain for year."
| quickthrowman wrote:
| Exactly. If you could accurately predict returns, you wouldn't
| publish, you'd profit. Profiting from the strategy would be a
| much better form of proof than a paper.
|
| Although.. maybe this is the secret sauce that powers Jim
| Simons' Medallion Fund
| betterunix2 wrote:
| Or it might just be that this is already known to the
| algorithmic traders, who already use headlines (text) as an
| input to their systems.
| [deleted]
| capableweb wrote:
| > Exactly. If you could accurately predict returns, you
| wouldn't publish, you'd profit
|
| While it's sometimes fun to assume things, it gets hard when
| you talk about people. In this case, not everyone is driven
| by profits and money, so it's most likely incorrect to assume
| "They didn't use this way of gaining profit themselves, so
| it's probably not profitable".
| agumonkey wrote:
| Also nothing says he didn't try and profit enough (to fund
| more research) from his idea already.
| ggm wrote:
| It probably had implicit status as post hoc reasoning since
| the images include post closure photos for at least some
| markets since some news images come after closure. They'd
| have to work awfully hard to demonstrate better than random
| with only prior data.
|
| A confounding problem is that news sources change stories and
| use a/b testing to pick story winners.
|
| This could even be a meta analysis of emerging sentiment on
| delay, which means you'd do better timewise on the origin
| sentiment than the second differential. Except you can't
| access the same pool of opinion so at best, it's a clever
| trick to access emerging sentiment through reactive reasoning
| on news sites. Why is that better as a driving function to
| invest across the market than other sources?
| jaredwiener wrote:
| Also -- wouldn't it be a safe assumption that photo editors are
| choosing the pictures that match the tone of the news they are
| reporting on? This seems like a roundabout way of saying that
| financial news seems to mostly accurately report the state of
| financial markets....
| nanis wrote:
| Ah, that pesky reverse causation thing ...
|
| In fact, one might get even better results if one trains the
| model on the daily market charts newspapers publish such as
| this: https://thumbs.dreamstime.com/x/stock-market-newspaper-
| backg...
|
| Oh, that's harder to get than the top-10 list at Getty, I
| see. Yeah, convenience sampling is king.
|
| Is one of the authors "Not Sure!" by any chance?
| secondaryacct wrote:
| The first rule of investing though is once everyone knows the
| martingale, nobody can profit off of it anymore.
|
| So now this won't work.
| qeternity wrote:
| That's OP's point: if this were truly predictive then you
| would just go raise a few billion dollars and quietly
| implement this strategy...you wouldn't write a paper about
| it.
|
| The fact that we're reading about a paper, and not a headline
| about a wildly successful systematic fund, suggests this
| isn't all that valuable.
| not-elite wrote:
| You're probably correct in this case, but not in general.
| The authors of [1] could have quietly run a money printer
| but elected to seek reforms instead.
|
| [1] https://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/1029s
| echft...
| danielmarkbruce wrote:
| i don't think that's right. People were already using the
| information quickly weren't they?
| cjbenedikt wrote:
| Download available here:
| https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3841844
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