[HN Gopher] Countries are gathering in an effort to stop a biodi...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Countries are gathering in an effort to stop a biodiversity
       collapse
        
       Author : adrian_mrd
       Score  : 178 points
       Date   : 2021-10-14 13:32 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
        
       | da39a3ee wrote:
       | This is the huge problem with the focus on climate change: a
       | generation of "environmentalists" is growing up who don't
       | understand the importance and fragility of natural ecosystems and
       | their organisms. Our primary objective is not to keep our planet
       | within certain temperature ranges. Our primary objective is to
       | not irreversibly destroy the natural world. We must succeed;
       | failure is unacceptable.
       | 
       | People are addressing climate change with afforestation projects
       | using non-native trees and all sorts of other stuff that doesn't
       | help save natural ecosystems. If the subset of people who think
       | they "care about the environment" spends the next couple of
       | decades supporting projects like that, and taking their eyes off
       | the crisis of habitat destruction, then a terrible tragedy will
       | result the shame of which humanity will never escape and which
       | will make the world inherited by our children a pathetic memory
       | of what it should have been, for ever.
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.is/nD3c6
        
       | xenocyon wrote:
       | I'm paying close attention to the direction that (my native)
       | India takes w.r.t. GM food crops, which have so far been illegal.
       | 
       | Background: India went from colonialism-induced massive serial
       | famines to self-sufficiency and then some, while entirely
       | eschewing GM foods. (NB: this doesn't mean there is no
       | malnutrition in India, where inequalities are rife, but it means
       | that the country as a whole is able to produce more than needed.
       | The causes of hunger are non-intuitive; for e.g. the dumping of
       | cheap foods is more likely to _cause_ hunger than solve it, as
       | hunger stems from poverty which stems from economic disablement -
       | which is caused by dumping cheap foods.)
       | 
       | Now, the Green Revolution did result in a loss of biodiversity
       | (among other problems) but without creating the kind of
       | monocultures you see in the US. For example, there are still
       | numerous varieties of rice in India, especially locally variated.
       | 
       | Despite this, the Indian government has been increasingly warming
       | over recent years to introducing GM foods (which is largely a
       | solution in search of a problem, in the Indian context). The
       | threat from GM foods is almost always misunderstood. It is not
       | about the individual health effects of eating GM foods; it is
       | about the largescale replacement of a system where farmers own
       | their biodiverse seed, with a top down monocultural approach that
       | essentially makes farmers franchisees of a massive corporate
       | behemoth and eliminates biodiversity, putting all eggs in one
       | basket.
        
         | fredgrott wrote:
         | a question, could the nation of Indian start their onw GM food
         | and make the IP of them free to everyone as an free-access
         | solution for farmers?
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | Countries that eschew genetic modification of foodstocks will
         | see famine in the next century. Traditional breeding techniques
         | to introduce favorable traits simply do not work fast enough to
         | keep up with changing ecological conditions in a changing
         | climate. It's often too costly to waste acreage screening for
         | favorable phenotypes after making a cross between two species
         | in effort to couple favorable phenotypes from both (this is the
         | traditional method to develop new cultivars, most of what we
         | plant today are hybrids). Genetic modification is a shortcut
         | that ultimately saves the farmer time, money, water, and land
         | to achieve the same end result of an elite cultivar.
         | 
         | What happens after with licensing and other legal issues is a
         | fault of policymakers rather than any fault of this inherent
         | lifesaving technology.
        
           | infogulch wrote:
           | I agree in general that GM is mostly a shortcut to a similar
           | selective breeding that humans have been doing since pre-
           | history, and banning it altogether is short sighted and
           | reactionary. That said I think there is space for debate over
           | _which_ phenotypes are bred into our food, and how some
           | phenotypes enable drastic changes in how our food is
           | harvested and processed. For example, the use of glyphostate
           | as an essential component in weed control and harvesting of
           | wheat is enabled by transferring phenotypes from very
           | different organisms that would be impossible using natural
           | breeding techniques. And note that this and similar
           | modifications are now IP owned by the people who did it, and
           | they have a vested interest in getting everyone to use it (by
           | force if necessary) irregardless of the obvious looming
           | health questions that arise.
        
           | saiya-jin wrote:
           | On paper, you are absolutely right. But we don't live in
           | theoretical world, rather in one where corporations like
           | Monsanto will use any technology available to extract as much
           | profit from everybody as possible.
           | 
           | Even if it means doing highly amoral stuff and tightly
           | coupling crops enhanced for mass, immunity to pests and
           | diseases with things like inability to breed, so farmers have
           | to keep buying their seeds.
           | 
           | Its not hard to see why everybody has issues with this - not
           | many want to be slaves with the very thing that our lives
           | depend on to company thats extremely greedy from the start.
           | GMs without those traits, having just weaknesses adressed
           | might be much better sell for poor countries.
           | 
           | Rich countries like Europe will react when its time to react,
           | no need to freak out now when as you describe serious issues
           | will be present in next century. Crops can be changed pretty
           | fast if there is strong enough motivation and one has enough
           | cash.
        
             | goatlover wrote:
             | Can't the Indian government promote it's own agricultural
             | companies and ban Monsanto products? That would allow
             | Indian GM crops without worrying about some other country's
             | corporation making Indian farmers dependent. Prohibiting GM
             | foods sounds like handicapping countries if the concern is
             | merely becoming dependent on other countries.
        
               | pphysch wrote:
               | Doable, sure. But that is precisely how one gets labeled
               | an "authoritarian regime" by Western capitalists.
        
               | jpollock wrote:
               | Not authoritarian, but it does tend to run up against
               | free trade agreements where offshore products and
               | companies need to be given equivalent treatment.
               | 
               | However, I don't think India has many FTAs, and probably
               | few of them include agricultural products.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_bilateral_free-
               | trade_a...
        
               | pphysch wrote:
               | If not authoritarian, do you have any counterexamples of
               | "authoritarian" countries that do have a FTA with
               | Washington?
        
           | ImaCake wrote:
           | I am not convinced this is actually true. GMOs in practice
           | tend to be the introduction of a foreign gene into an
           | organism. Breeding is different; you shuffle ~1 million small
           | effect size variants around and see if you can get a
           | combination that has a bigger effect size. This sounds
           | inefficient, but done right it can have spectacular effects
           | (i.e the green revolution).
           | 
           | I also don't think we have pushed the limits of breeding yet.
           | It is only in the last decade that genotyping tech has become
           | cheap enough to employ it for a breeding program. Combine
           | that big data analysis with breeding and I bet you can
           | produce some spectacular results within 1 or 2 generations.
           | 
           | I think the massive advantages of shuffling a million
           | variants 1000 times is why GMOs are transgenics and not
           | modifications of the existing genome. Traditional breeding is
           | just so much better at this.
        
           | m0zg wrote:
           | > Countries that eschew genetic modification of foodstocks
           | will see famine in the next century
           | 
           | Even if we were to agree that GM crops help with that (which
           | is debatable), I don't see how there'd be any "famine" seeing
           | that they can change policy anytime in the future if they see
           | problematic trends, and do the same thing they do with drugs
           | - ignore US patents and start making their own GM seeds.
        
           | siliconunit wrote:
           | I think there are a lot of misconceptions about GM crops,
           | most people think they are modified to be resist/repel vast
           | types of insects/pests and what not, this is in average not
           | the case and very complex to implement, what they are really
           | engineered for is simply to be very resistant to specific
           | pesticides, very easy to control/predict as you have to
           | target only the few chemicals that you spray. Unfortunately
           | we all know what this means... tenfold increase of pesticides
           | and faster destruction of the environment. Not to say that
           | there aren't GM modifications in that direction, but it's not
           | the norm.
        
         | mistrial9 wrote:
         | LOL - Bayer-Monsanto looking at you!
        
         | ch4s3 wrote:
         | > it is about the largescale replacement of a system where
         | farmers own their biodiverse seed with a top down monocultural
         | approach that essentially makes farmers franchisees of a
         | massive corporate behemoth and eliminates biodiversity, putting
         | all eggs in one basket.
         | 
         | No one is out there forcing people to switch to GM crops when
         | those seeds become available. Now the business model of large
         | agriculture in the US isn't necessarily the one you would want
         | to import, but GM crops could happily coexist in a country's
         | agricultural mix along side traditional crops. You could
         | probably even tweak some of your traditional seeds domestically
         | to be more pest/drought resistant, give those seeds out, and
         | call it a win.
         | 
         | It could be a really useful tech if people deployed it
         | responsibly.
        
           | chuckee wrote:
           | > No one is out there forcing people to switch to GM crops
           | when those seeds become available.
           | 
           | Just like if steroids became legal in sports, no-one would be
           | forcing top athletes to take them. If you want to maintain
           | food sovereignty, you can't ignore market forces.
        
           | jonahbenton wrote:
           | Putting out a request for someone with knowledge of IP
           | dynamics in this space to weigh in. My understanding is that
           | nothing is "forced" but adoption of IP-protected seed has
           | substantial downstream effects and risks, and that there is
           | no real "happy coexistence." Looking to be educated...
        
             | throw63738 wrote:
             | GM modified seeds can not be usually replanted after
             | harvest. Sometimes they need proprietary fertiliser.
             | 
             | Genetic sequences are patented. There was a case where GM
             | seeds spread to neighbours, and Monsato sued neighbour...
             | 
             | It is horror show similar to software patents.
        
           | Retric wrote:
           | Market forces heavily push GM crops when you let them enter
           | the market without labeling laws.
        
             | whimsicalism wrote:
             | Market forces in this instance meaning cheaper food for
             | people, just so we're clear.
        
               | spywaregorilla wrote:
               | cheaper food, with the long tail risk that a single crop
               | vulnerability to a new disease destroys all of it without
               | warning
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | Why is that not an issue with traditional crops? At least
               | with GM crops if there is a known blight you can
               | introduce traits that confer resistance to said blight in
               | a much faster process than attempting to cross a high
               | yielding and blight resistant strain and getting both
               | favorable phenotypes in your crops. Especially with crops
               | where it can take years for the progeny to reach maturity
               | to even assess the phenotypes of the hybrids.
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | GM crops have significantly less genetic diversity simply
               | as a result of how their created and sold. This isn't a
               | new problem, but fixing it significantly slows time to
               | market.
               | 
               | As to using GM to add blight resistance, that's not
               | always an option. Cavendish bananas for example are at
               | massive risk from Panama disease TR4 and have been for
               | years.
        
               | asdff wrote:
               | I'm glad you brought up the Canvendish, what an excellent
               | recent example of the success of genetic tools in
               | agriculture. There are other bananas that are resistant
               | to panama disease but have other traits such as thinner
               | skin that make them unfit for export. In fact,
               | researchers have turned to genetic modification, and
               | created a Cavendish variety that is resistant to Panama
               | disease by introducing a blight resistant gene from a
               | blight resistant wild banana. (1) This is just one
               | example of how we can use genetic tooling to do what
               | would otherwise take a breeder a lifetime of work in the
               | field with a single cross and generation of progeny per
               | growing season.
               | 
               | You can develop GM crops that harbor genetic diversity.
               | You can mutagenize them to introduce random variation and
               | yield a variety of novel phenotypes that can adapt to any
               | sort of conditions. You can conduct analysis using
               | statistical models to identify the genes and regulatory
               | mechanisms involved with these phenotypes. You can
               | introduce these phenotypes into your cultivar. You can
               | cross your cultivar with wild landraces to introduce more
               | diversity, and cross these with geographically distant
               | populations to introduce more divergent and diverse
               | genetic compositions than what would even be possible
               | among the landraces. To put it simply, the box has been
               | opened, and you can do pretty much anything to shape and
               | alter the plant with genetic tooling.
               | 
               | 1. https://www.wur.nl/en/newsarticle/World-first-Panama-
               | disease...
        
               | Retric wrote:
               | That's from 2017 and they still haven't gotten it to
               | work.
               | 
               | Which was my point they tried GM and failed, maybe the
               | next attempt works but at this point it's not a fast
               | process.
        
               | panta wrote:
               | I wonder if a lock-in phenomenon could take place at some
               | point in the future, where non-GM varieties become a no-
               | go and the GM ones get very expensive?
        
               | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote:
               | GM crops can produce more yield in worse conditions. As
               | the climate changes, humanity will become increasingly
               | dependent on these crops for survival. And yes, at that
               | point we will be locked in, in the same way we are locked
               | into many other technological advances that make our
               | lives possible. However I don't expect that will ever
               | make the GM crops more expensive than non-GM, since the
               | land that is capable of growing non-GM will only become
               | more of a rare luxury.
        
               | chuckee wrote:
               | Becoming dependent on a foreign corporation for your food
               | supply will cost you far more in the long run.
        
       | caiobegotti wrote:
       | As a brazilian I don't believe for a second that these are actual
       | efforts unless Brazil (holding 1/5 of all planet's biodiversity
       | alone) is held accountable enough to see economical sanctions
       | being enforced by more developed countries. I can't think of
       | other last resorts efforts other than economical ones and Brazil
       | would surely listen to those if they were enforced right.
        
         | sleepysysadmin wrote:
         | >As a brazilian I don't believe for a second that these are
         | actual efforts unless Brazil (holding 1/5 of all planet's
         | biodiversity alone) is held accountable enough to see
         | economical sanctions being enforced by more developed
         | countries. I can't think of other last resorts efforts other
         | than economical ones and Brazil would surely listen to those if
         | they were enforced right.
         | 
         | How do you feel about external countries dictating your
         | government policy? Often this won't go the way you want.
         | 
         | Is Mercosur unpopular in Brazil? Eliminating it would be quite
         | costly to the world.
        
           | caiobegotti wrote:
           | Personally I believe in full sovereignty and I want that, but
           | it can still exist inside economical dynamics. Also, Mercosul
           | is popular enough, I've never heard about people wanting it
           | to be over for economical reasons or borders (only due to
           | ideological politics fights).
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | I'm not the GP (clearly), but... You mean, having the
           | Brazilian people be denied chances of getting less poor by
           | some high polluting countries that made the (implied correct)
           | choice to destroy their biodiversity before the 20th century
           | because we are unable to stop individuals from destroying
           | part of what we preserved until today?
           | 
           | I don't see any chance of this not going bad. It would set
           | the climate to somebody much worse than Bolsonaro to get into
           | power. I don't see how the GP could ever want it, but there
           | is a small and loud political movement that does ask for it.
           | 
           | (By the way, Mercosul is popular in Brazil. Preserving
           | forests is too. Preserving non-forest biodiversity is less
           | popular, but as soon as people see the choice, they like it.
           | All of those have strong opposition from small groups.)
        
           | mistrial9 wrote:
           | "dictating" is a landmine word, and almost certainly causes
           | an arguement
        
             | esturk wrote:
             | But isn't that what's happening in this entire thread?
             | Everyone here seems to have their "opinion" on how other
             | countries "should" behave. Most of which involving drastic
             | changes in lifestyle like eating and procreation habits.
             | Never once considering what those countries would feel
             | about.
        
             | sleepysysadmin wrote:
             | >"dictating" is a landmine word, and almost certainly
             | causes an arguement
             | 
             | I believe it's a fair statement. If you come in with
             | economic sanctions with policy in mind. You have dictated
             | what that policy is. There's no beating around the bush.
        
       | demosito666 wrote:
       | The problem with biodiversity loss is that people don't care
       | about it en masse. We just don't give a shit about nature
       | collectively and biodiversity has complex relationship with
       | profit to humans, because we can largely compensate loss of
       | wildlife with more fertilizers and more sophisticated agriculture
       | and farming. Which makes it even harder politically to act on it.
       | 
       | Now of course global ecosystem degradation will hit the poor in
       | developing countries very hard. But it's not like anybody who can
       | take meaningful action cares about them either. And as opposed to
       | climate change, the rich are isolated of the effects, so they
       | have no incentive to push here either.
        
         | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
         | >the rich are isolated of the effects
         | 
         | How? The bees and birds will migrate to rich countries? Corals
         | will pop up in front of premium resorts so the fish can
         | reproduce in their nets? Pandemics only travel in business
         | class?
        
       | carapace wrote:
       | > "When you have two concurrent existential crises, you don't get
       | to pick only one to focus on -- you must address both no matter
       | how challenging," said Brian O'Donnell
       | 
       | Climate change and biodiversity loss are aspects of _one_
       | problem: we don 't _see_ the world. Ours is fundamentally a
       | psychological or spiritual crisis.
       | 
       | Civilization as we know it is a kind of hypnotic trance.
       | 
       | The real world is fantastically beautiful.
       | 
       | Nature supplies all our needs though a self-regulating autonomic
       | system made of self-improving four-billion-year-old
       | nanotechnology that's driven by a zero-maintenance fusion reactor
       | so powerful that it can burn out your retinas from 150 gigameters
       | away.
       | 
       | "All the world's problems can be solved in a garden" - Geoff
       | Lawton
       | 
       | Food, medicine, clothing, structural materials all grow
       | naturally.
       | 
       | It's also very fun and fulfilling to live in harmony with nature.
       | 
       | So the question is, what's preventing us from seeing that and
       | changing our ways?
       | 
       | Why doesn't e.g. Gabe Brown's neighbor adopt his methods?
       | 
       | (Gabe Brown is a farmer in North Dakota who practices
       | regenerative agriculture. He make more money, increases soil
       | fertility and biodiversity, does less work, and his farm is more
       | resilient than conventional farms, so why don't more people pick
       | up on this faster? "Treating the Farm as an Ecosystem with Gabe
       | Brown Part 1, The 5 Tenets of Soil Health"
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUmIdq0D6-A )
       | 
       | We have all the technology we need already, so that's not the
       | limiting factor.
       | 
       | It seems to me to be, as I said above, a perceptual/psychological
       | problem.
        
         | da39a3ee wrote:
         | I don't know what you're trying to say but whatever it is, try
         | saying it more clearly and succinctly, or desist. No it is not
         | a perceptual/psychological problem: the problem is that humans
         | are destroying natural habitat.
        
           | carapace wrote:
           | That was pretty clear and succinct in my opinion.
           | 
           | > the problem is that humans are destroying natural habitat.
           | 
           | Right, but why?
        
             | spacemark wrote:
             | Despite the rude response from the previous commenter, I
             | agree with the general response. It seems like you're
             | suggesting we all revert to subsistence living by growing
             | our own food on little family farms or something.
             | 
             | Fact is people actually like civilization. Modern
             | civilization has led to an unprecedented quality of life
             | for a larger portion of the human population than ever
             | before in recorded history. People are hard pressed to give
             | that up. Put another way, humans prefer to reduce their
             | current misery than ensure all the future's climate issues
             | are solved.
             | 
             | Stepping away from modern civilization and our systems
             | would result in unimaginable suffering.
        
               | carapace wrote:
               | Cheers! I appreciate the constructive feedback.
               | 
               | > It seems like you're suggesting we all revert to
               | subsistence living by growing our own food on little
               | family farms or something.
               | 
               | Ah, no, not at all. I do think we should integrate
               | natural systems into our homes and cities to a much
               | greater degree. E.g. Village Homes, urban Permaculture,
               | Integral Urban House, food forests, etc.
               | 
               | > Village Homes is a planned community in Davis, Yolo
               | County, California. It is designed to be ecologically
               | sustainable by harnessing the energies and natural
               | resources that exist in the landscape, especially
               | stormwater and solar energy.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Village_Homes
               | 
               | "Urban Permaculture with Geoff Lawton"
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7qXgbrIYcFE
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Integral_Urban_House
               | 
               | "Amazing 23-Year-Old Permaculture Food Forest - An
               | Invitation for Wildness"
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6GJFL0MD9fc
               | 
               | I also think we should try to live within our "solar
               | budget", the incoming solar energy per m2, rather than
               | burning fossil fuels. However, I hope clean atomic power
               | becomes available too. (And rockets.)
               | 
               | > Modern civilization has led to an unprecedented quality
               | of life for a larger portion of the human population than
               | ever before in recorded history.
               | 
               | I agree, but it's not without its discontents, eh? When I
               | said "Civilization as we know it is a kind of hypnotic
               | trance." I wasn't referring to the technology, rather to
               | the cultural influences that keep us from applying
               | science and technology to make our civilization work in
               | harmony with Nature instead of against it.
               | 
               | > Put another way, humans prefer to reduce their current
               | misery than ensure all the future's climate issues are
               | solved.
               | 
               | That's my point: we can reduce misery _and_ solve our
               | climate issues. It 's the same solution, eh? Living in
               | harmony with nature feels great! It's fun and fulfilling.
               | I don't want to go backwards to some previous harsh
               | lifestyle, I want to go forwards to a better
               | (technological) civilization. (For example, the folks in
               | the "Amazing 23-Year-Old Permaculture Food Forest" video
               | above seem pretty happy and fulfilled and they haven't
               | turned their backs on the benefits of modern
               | civilization, eh?)
               | 
               | Ecology is a science, after all. We can apply what we've
               | learned about how natural systems work to improve our
               | civilization. We can reduce misery, increase happiness,
               | protect and even increase biodiversity, solve our climate
               | problems, all by application of ecology.
               | 
               | My puzzle is why don't we? What's preventing the rapid
               | and widespread application of ecological knowledge and
               | practice?
        
               | themacguffinman wrote:
               | The state of the art for eco-tech is still prohibitively
               | expensive and inefficient. Feel free to come up with
               | better eco-tech, but what you've mentioned so far sucks.
               | I don't want to live within a solar budget and I don't
               | want to pay high food prices for ridiculously inefficient
               | eco-farms. Organic food may yield higher profits per unit
               | in the current system where they only occupy a niche, but
               | that's because it only occupies a middle/upper class
               | niche.
        
               | carapace wrote:
               | > The state of the art for eco-tech is still
               | prohibitively expensive and inefficient.
               | 
               | What are you talking about?
               | 
               | > Feel free to come up with better eco-tech, but what
               | you've mentioned so far sucks.
               | 
               | Did you watch this video? "Treating the Farm as an
               | Ecosystem with Gabe Brown Part 1, The 5 Tenets of Soil
               | Health" https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUmIdq0D6-A
               | 
               | He's more productive than conventional agriculture with
               | fewer inputs.
               | 
               | > I don't want to live within a solar budget
               | 
               | So where do you want to get power w/o burning fossil
               | fuels? The only other source of energy is nuclear, which
               | would be fine but it won't help in time to tackle climate
               | change.
               | 
               | > and I don't want to pay high food prices for
               | ridiculously inefficient eco-farms.
               | 
               | Well fortunately that's not the trade off. Seriously, go
               | check out what Gabe Brown is doing.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | I'm sorry but these people don't give a damn. They will
               | just pretend that you can brute force the solution with
               | "engineering".
        
       | FerretFred wrote:
       | " _What's next .. The working draft .. Create a plan_ "
       | 
       | Yes, but the real problem is that the people in power have
       | actually just realised that there _is_ a problem, and they can 't
       | buy it off.
       | 
       | The "plan" right now is to extend the needed extreme measures to
       | 10 or 20 years time when the current generation of clued-up kids
       | will be in power: I hate to think what they'll have to work with
       | though.
        
         | jaggederest wrote:
         | Yeah my first thought was "the plan better involve a time
         | machine and intervention about 200 years ago" - it's a little
         | late to be closing the barn door now.
        
         | tuatoru wrote:
         | > the real problem
         | 
         | The real problem is that the response _is_ to create the plan.
         | 
         | Politicians know that we don't want to change our lifestyles at
         | all, but we also want to feel virtuous. They're doing what we
         | want.
        
       | mc32 wrote:
       | People keep saying we can feed 10 billion people. We can. But at
       | what cost to the diversity of biological systems?
       | 
       | It's not popular to say but we need to stabilize population
       | growth and stop encroaching on natural habitats and put a brake
       | on consumerism.
       | 
       | The developed world has in many parts allowed previously used
       | areas to revert to a natural state. However in high pop growth
       | countries the opposite is happening as both thd developed world
       | and developing world both need as well as demand more resource
       | extraction. We're depleting ocean fisheries, contributing to soil
       | erosion, having water shortages, etc.
       | 
       | Stabilize populations to 1960s or whatever, but we need to do the
       | same as we're doing for pollution set a benchmark and aim for it.
       | Get those people educated, provide them with prophylactics and
       | get them out of a pop explosion curve and get to ZPG like Italy
       | and Japan (US as well if we didn't import pop growth).
        
         | slothtrop wrote:
         | Isn't global population already projected to stabilize in 100
         | years? The only way you could accelerate this is through
         | aggressive policy measures to allow universal access to
         | contraceptives, and investments to hasten development of
         | manufacturing or other (which, in the interim, will raise
         | emissions - but it would be unethical to disallow it) in the
         | 3rd world. I'm for it but I don't expect it. The alternative is
         | what China opted for which is likely not possible in developing
         | countries.
         | 
         | There's a class conflict in the backdrop and I see this as the
         | reason media is planting the idea that consumers ought to be
         | content with less, not because of the environment. They still
         | want and expect you to consume, but will spin lower quality of
         | life (owing to unaffordability of housing and certain
         | lifestyles) as a virtue. Realistically your carbon footprint
         | +/- on an individual level stays in the same rough ballpark if
         | you live in the West since a lot of it is due to city
         | infrastructure, electricity, gas. It's just compounded by sheer
         | population. In my view everyone ought be able to live and
         | pursue a life of high quality; reducing quality of life is not
         | the solution, it's a problem. The solution will lie in
         | innovation, population stagnation, growing economy for
         | developing nations, etc.
        
           | kiba wrote:
           | Consuming less can be associated with better quality of life.
           | 
           | More walkable neighborhoods mean you need cars for less
           | errands, which means less money spent on road infrastructure
           | and more money being invested in more efficient solutions.
        
             | agumonkey wrote:
             | seconded, most "modern" cities evolved blindly but there's
             | almost nothing required in dense urban areas in terms of
             | mobility. biking, walking can do a lot. thinking people pay
             | expensive cars and gym club to forget about their bills is
             | such a sad joke.
        
             | slothtrop wrote:
             | It's understood that opting to live in high-density areas
             | means smaller living space in general. The urban/rural
             | price disparity today is massive however and many could
             | scarcely afford a room the size of a closet, but
             | notwithstanding, whether this provides a "better quality"
             | depends on what a person values. If you value what a
             | detached home brings, that's what increases your quality of
             | life. Having the choice matters.
        
               | kiba wrote:
               | Having choice matters if the option wasn't only single
               | family homes where you live. There are no middle housing
               | options for the vast majority of the country or options
               | to expand your existing property into duplexes.
        
               | slothtrop wrote:
               | You're digressing into a zoning problem.
        
           | mc32 wrote:
           | Obviously we don't want to go the route China went (even
           | without their bad policy, most people there we having fewer
           | children). But as you say contraceptive availability and
           | education coupled with opportunities.
        
             | alexgmcm wrote:
             | I mean "Stop at two" isn't a particularly awful policy, yet
             | that is sufficient to curtail population growth.
             | 
             | I doubt it even needs to be a policy in many countries - I
             | don't know many people with more than two kids.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | Agreed. Two even three. The issue is when most people go
               | over that. It's not usually because they _want to_ but
               | because they don 't have the means or options to control
               | their family's growth.
        
           | skywal_l wrote:
           | Population will stabilized. But the question is how it will
           | be stabilized. We could do it in a controlled way or through
           | environmental collapse, war, pandemic...
        
             | slothtrop wrote:
             | The projection is owing to improved quality of life through
             | global trade. Since the 20th Century the rate of extreme
             | poverty has been decimated and continues to drop.
             | 
             | In 1st world countries the fertility rates are already
             | stagnant. The growth rate is targeted and achieved through
             | immigration, from countries with lower quality of life and
             | higher child mortality.
        
         | throwawayfear wrote:
         | With vertical farming, we can feed any number of people with
         | less and less inputs. It's a solved problem, if we just scale
         | up this technology everywhere.
         | 
         | "It's also indoors, can be placed anywhere on the planet, is
         | heavily integrated with robots and AI, and produces better
         | fruits and vegetables while using 95% less water and 99% less
         | land."
         | 
         | https://www.forbes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2020/11/20/this-2-...
        
           | carapace wrote:
           | I recently came across this pretty awesome system for
           | vertical hydroponics. It's designed to be self-contained,
           | with minimal labor and power requirements (systems can be run
           | off-grid.) It's a bit capital intensive, and you have to get
           | your nutrients from somewhere, of course, but it seems really
           | promising.
           | 
           | https://ezgrogarden.com/
           | 
           | > Johnson says the system will grow 700 plants, using 15
           | towers, in a space of just 2 by 18 feet. Today, he sells kits
           | ranging from single tower patio gardens to 10-tower deck
           | gardens to commercial-sized set-ups like those being used by
           | a Miami football stadium for concession meals, by a Whole
           | Foods Market in New Jersey, and by rooftop farmers in Lagos,
           | Nigeria. ... This closed-loop system uses less than 10% of
           | the water of a traditional garden. ... To create a system
           | robust enough for even off-grid farmers, Johnson has spent
           | the last 2 decades developing his trihelix solar windmill.
           | 
           | "Mad scientist's homestead is parking size, off-grid system"
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QSnHShly5R0
        
           | imtringued wrote:
           | Ok but first you have to show us your fusion reactors.
        
         | mistrial9 wrote:
         | With actual land use planning, the tension between production
         | and conservation is a false dichotomy.
         | 
         | Second, agricultural products are already produced to meet
         | needs
         | 
         | Third, the "reduce people" argument is almost always a losing
         | one
        
           | i_haz_rabies wrote:
           | It's not a false dichotomy, there's just some slack in the
           | current system. Eventually, no matter how hard you try, you
           | hit a point where population and conservation are
           | incompatible. We just don't know what that point is.
        
           | mc32 wrote:
           | We could handle 10 billion if we consumed as people consumed
           | in 1901, but not at the rate middle class people consume in
           | even middle of the road developed countries.
           | 
           | Japan, Italy and the US are "reducing the people" naturally.
           | We're there already. Yes our pop happens to be "growing" but
           | that's due to others exporting their excess to us.
        
             | throwaway894345 wrote:
             | > We could handle 10 billion if we consumed as people
             | consumed in 1901, but not at the rate middle class people
             | consume in even middle of the road developed countries.
             | 
             | How do you figure? Certainly we can't afford to keep
             | emitting at the rate we're emitting, but if we transition
             | to entirely clean energy and use our existing farmland more
             | efficiently (rather than encroaching on important
             | ecosystems) then I'm not sure what the remaining
             | bottlenecks are. Lumber?
        
               | goatlover wrote:
               | Yes, We will probably figure out fusion and AGI within a
               | century along with advanced molecular nanotech. So yes,
               | if civilization can make it through the 21st, we should
               | be able to transition to a highly efficient, clean
               | civilization, while restoring part of the biosphere.
        
             | AtlasBarfed wrote:
             | It doesn't matter what the US/Japan/Europe are doing
             | population wise.
             | 
             | The big issue with the future is that China and India was
             | to be first world countries with first world luxuries.
             | 
             | India is currently 1.3 billion people and still growing
             | 1-2% per year.
             | 
             | China is currently 1.4 billion people. Still growing .3%
             | per year (US is .4%)
             | 
             | Dismissing first world population growth as "just being
             | overflow" / immigration ignores the fact that people that
             | immigrate to the US will quickly start consuming resources
             | like an American.
             | 
             | Population growth doesn't matter that much. What really
             | matters is the resource consumption rates of the
             | population.
             | 
             | The environmental future is basically a conflict between
             | India and China aspiring to Western resource consumption
             | rates and luxury, and us praying they figure out how to do
             | it sustainably.
             | 
             | Otherwise: WAR.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
         | >People keep saying we can feed 10 billion people. We can. But
         | at what cost to the diversity of biological systems? > >It's
         | not popular to say but we need to stabilize population growth
         | and stop encroaching on natural habitats and put a brake on
         | consumerism.
         | 
         | This is not popular because it assumes that everyone has an
         | excessive footprint. I'm vegetarian, I get most of my food from
         | a local, organic farm. My footprint is minimal (no car, zero
         | commute, no flight, etc). We could be billions more if we chose
         | to live this way. Why ask/force people not to have a family
         | where we could have happy family living responsibly? Asking
         | others to die / not reproduce is a great way not to challenge
         | our way of life.
         | 
         | For some reasons, all the people I know who campaign for
         | population stabilization/reduction are among those with the
         | worst footprint.
        
           | akudha wrote:
           | I too have no car, zero commute, maybe take one flight every
           | other year etc. I still think we should stabilize human
           | population. I don't know what is the maximum number of humans
           | mother earth can support without completely fucking up the
           | planet, but I don't want to find out. Do you?
           | 
           | I don't have kids and don't plan to have. Nobody is forcing
           | me not to have kids, in fact the opposite. I am the black
           | sheep of my family and social circle, people look at me weird
           | for not having kids (not that I care).
           | 
           | The problem with asking people to live responsibly is that it
           | hasn't worked so far. Ever tried asking a meat eater to
           | reduce a _tiny_ bit of their meat consumption? Another issue
           | is that even if it worked, it will take a long time for
           | people to change their habits. We should of course educate
           | people about responsible living, but we should also remember
           | that it is a long, hard process.
           | 
           | I don't know what the solution is, but we are at a point that
           | we should try _everything_ we can think of, including asking
           | people to have less kids, live responsibly etc etc
        
             | AtlasBarfed wrote:
             | This is basically the problem. To constrain human growth so
             | it is sustainable requires a lot of limitations.
             | 
             | Environmentalism is unfortunately a liberal issue, not a
             | conservative one (or an all-people one which is
             | fundamentally is), population controls is basically a war
             | on the poor, especially in the modern world, and that
             | policy can't coexist in the liberal sphere right now.
             | 
             | Environmentalism historically is basically conflict with
             | corporations, and was really about localized
             | environmentalism (pollution of a lake, etc), or it was a
             | small number of corporations (CFCs for ozone).
             | 
             | Global warming and species destruction is a totally
             | different ballgame politically.
        
               | m0zg wrote:
               | > Environmentalism is unfortunately a liberal issue
               | 
               | Only the "performative" kind. Conservatives are quite in
               | favor of nuclear power for example, which is arguably the
               | most "environmental" thing one can be in favor of. What
               | they are against are reductions in business caused by
               | higher energy prices, and worse quality of life. Both are
               | a hard sell in the long term unless you're just virtue
               | signaling and lower QOL and higher cost of living won't
               | affect you (that is if you're Leo DiCaprio, Al Gore, or
               | John Kerry for example).
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | Constraining human growth seems to be very easy, though,
               | and requires /more freedom/ not less: Increase access to
               | education, reproductive freedom, and career
               | opportunities.
               | 
               | This trifecta has brought reproduction below the
               | replacement rate in large parts of the globe. US
               | population goes up only via immigration.
        
               | goatlover wrote:
               | But that's already factored into projected population
               | growth. We still end up with a 1-2+ billion more people
               | for the next century or so before the replacement rate is
               | negative.
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | So... Do it more. Places with good access to education
               | and family planning /already have/ negative population
               | growth rates. The problem is uneven access, and that's
               | something that can be worked on.
               | 
               | Open borders to move people more quickly into more-
               | developed countries, and increase funding and pressure
               | for initiatives to raise standards in other countries.
        
               | akudha wrote:
               | I don't see that working. Right wing has been on the rise
               | the past few years and countries like Japan didn't have a
               | decent immigration system to begin with. Racism was a big
               | factor in Brexit vote too. It just seems that with every
               | passing year, immigration (even for well educated and
               | qualified people) is becoming more and more difficult
               | (even before covid), the opposite of what we need.
        
               | timthorn wrote:
               | Environmentalism as currently practiced is a liberal
               | issue, but protecting the environment is a deeply
               | conservative notion - the mechanisms by which it is
               | achieved may differ, though.
               | 
               | Margaret Thatcher, a Conservative to her core, raised
               | environmental issues on the world stage and worked for
               | action well before it was a politically fashionable
               | cause.
        
               | abraae wrote:
               | British Conservatism != American Conservatism.
               | 
               | Not even close.
        
             | vnorilo wrote:
             | I grew up eating meat twice a day and quite like the taste.
             | I cut that to once a week (and ramping down) once I
             | understood the co2 numbers. I have always been carless but
             | was naive with regard to diet. Dairy is now the WIP.
             | 
             | Turns out I also quite like tofu, falafels and soy crumble.
        
           | GhostVII wrote:
           | Being vegetation obviously has a huge impact on your
           | footprint, but I'd imagine that buying from a local organic
           | farm actually has a much higher footprint than buying from a
           | larger non-organic farm, since non-organic can grow more in a
           | smaller space.
        
           | perfunctory wrote:
           | > We could be billions more if we chose to live this way.
           | 
           | This line of reasoning is problematic as it just delays the
           | stabilization. Maybe we could have a few billion more people
           | now but surely there must be a limit somewhere. 10B, 50, 100?
           | Sooner or later we'll have to stabilize.
           | 
           | > For some reasons, all the people I know who campaign for
           | population stabilization/reduction are among those with the
           | worst footprint.
           | 
           | To be clear, I personally believe we have to both stabilize
           | the population AND dramatically reduce footprint per capita.
        
             | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
             | >This line of reasoning is problematic as it just delays
             | the stabilization. Maybe we could have a few billion more
             | people now but surely there must be a limit somewhere. 10B,
             | 50, 100? Sooner or later we'll have to stabilize.
             | 
             | The thing is, people will only reproduce less if they
             | adhere to the cause. So if we get people to realize we all
             | must care for our environment in order to live well, then
             | you don't have to limit population growth. Limiting
             | population growth will always be less effective than
             | changing a way of life (which makes people not want too
             | many children).
             | 
             | If you restrict reproduction, expect people to want more
             | consumption (at least to compensate).
        
           | axiosgunnar wrote:
           | > no car, zero commute, no flight, etc
           | 
           | If you get a heart attack, where do you think the medical
           | supplies come from?
           | 
           | By air from China!
           | 
           | Even if you personally manage to abstain from taking planes,
           | you consume products and services by people who fly and drive
           | cars.
        
             | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
             | Obviously. But it's already taken into account in my carbon
             | footprint (by multiple estimates including "imported"
             | emissions).
        
           | chuckee wrote:
           | > Why ask/force people not to have a family where we could
           | have happy family living responsibly?
           | 
           | I'm sorry, but you _know_ that people can still have families
           | (up to 2.1 children /woman on average) while staying below
           | the replacement reproduction rate (so resulting in population
           | reduction). So why pretend that they're being asked to give
           | up families entirely?
        
             | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
             | You'll have to explain that to those who want 3+ children.
             | I know a few that will fight for their rights to have as
             | many children as they desire.
             | 
             | I personnally believe population control is just a way not
             | to challenge our way of life. Because if you get them to
             | actually care about the environment (our future), then
             | people will ajust their family's dream (why have another
             | child if it makes life worst for the first one?).
        
               | chuckee wrote:
               | Your initial claim was that people would be asked to have
               | _no_ family. At least acknowledge that the choice is
               | "large family" vs. "medium/small family", and not
               | "family" vs. "no family", instead of blithely shifting
               | the argument.
        
           | drclau wrote:
           | > We could be billions more if we chose to live this way.
           | 
           | Can you explain this? Why should we be billions more?
        
             | kmlx wrote:
             | isn't the extremely long term plan to colonize the
             | universe? how can we achieve this goal without major
             | increases in population?
        
             | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
             | I said could.
        
             | esturk wrote:
             | Don't distort their words. They said could and should.
        
               | drclau wrote:
               | The quote was literally a copy & paste from the parent
               | post. No distortion there. I am genuinely curious why
               | people think we should aim to grow even more in numbers.
               | 
               | More so, I am genuinely curious what the same people
               | propose we do when we reach whatever they consider to be
               | the maximum sustainable population. Clearly, we can't
               | grow infinitely in a limited space.
        
               | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
               | I didn't say we should be billions more. I said we could
               | if we cared about our environment. I simply believe it's
               | more effective to explain the danger we face and get
               | people to really care, than to curb population growth.
               | 
               | The first reason is that it takes more energy to fight
               | the desire to reproduce than to get people to live
               | responsibly (at least not more than our environment can
               | bear). Moreover, if you somehow get people to reproduce
               | less than they desire (without causing to much
               | frustration), you'll still have to educate them about the
               | sustainability issues (aka our way of life). Why not
               | directly address the way of life challenge, then?
               | 
               | People don't want many children when they know what's
               | coming (your first child's future is in jeopardy, let's
               | have more!). It's no coincidence that those who have/want
               | the most children are the least aware of the
               | biodiversity/climate problem.
        
               | goatlover wrote:
               | If we stick around long enough, then colonizing and
               | terraforming the solar system where possible would
               | provide most of the growth. Luna, Mars, Venus, the Belt,
               | and some moons around the gas giants would be candidates.
               | Eventually, we might figure out ways to expand to other
               | nearby star systems with good enough tech to support it.
        
               | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
               | We can't get people to survive in a closed environment on
               | Earth, or even get scientists to create a liveable
               | ecosystem in a lab... With all the resources available at
               | hands. I'm not actively against Mars colonization only
               | because I trust it will fail and give us a good reason to
               | care about the unique and fragile habitat we have here on
               | Earth.
               | 
               | I'm not hoping for a failure, I'm just intimately
               | convinced that we won't manage to survive on other rocks
               | without really trying here first.
        
               | goatlover wrote:
               | I'm talking long term, if human civilization lasts for
               | thousands of more years. Then it becomes more reasonable.
               | I agree that this century it's a much harder sell and
               | largely out of reach. We should focus most of our efforts
               | on Earth for now, without abandoning some space
               | exploration. Space programs, telescopes and SETI are good
               | things we should continue doing.
        
           | abraae wrote:
           | > Why ask/force people not to have a family where we could
           | have happy family living responsibly?
           | 
           | You can't guarantee the lifestyles of your children. For all
           | you know, your family of 6 kids will rebel against your
           | (extremely worthy and admirable) lifestyle and start flying
           | around to see the world. That's what kids often do.
        
             | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
             | >You can't guarantee the lifestyles of your children.
             | 
             | I bet I can have more influence on my childrens being
             | environmentalist, than on others' people desire to
             | reproduce.
             | 
             | By the way, I'm not advocating for people to have more
             | children but against policy to limit population. Only
             | because it so less effective than accepting to have a
             | sustainable footprint.
        
         | triceratops wrote:
         | > It's not popular to say but we need to stabilize population
         | growth
         | 
         | Is it not? Where, and why?
         | 
         | > provide them with prophylactics
         | 
         | Kinda problematic for orgs that rely on US foreign aid.[1]
         | 
         | "The policy originally enacted from 1984 to 1993 spoke to
         | abortion only, not family planning in general. However, in
         | 2001, the policy was re-implemented and expanded to cover all
         | voluntary family planning activities, and critics began to
         | refer to it as the "global gag rule." These critics argue that
         | the policy not only reduces the overall funding provided to
         | particular NGOs, it closes off their access to USAID-supplied
         | condoms and other forms of contraception. This, they argue,
         | negatively impacts the ability of these NGOs to distribute
         | birth control, leading to a downturn in contraceptive use and
         | from there to an increase in the rates of unintended
         | pregnancies and abortion. A study of nations in sub-Saharan
         | Africa suggests that unintended pregnancies increased and
         | abortions approximately doubled while the policy was in effect.
         | Critics also argue that the ban promotes restrictions on free
         | speech as well as restrictions on accurate medical information.
         | The European Parliamentary Forum on Population and Development
         | presented a petition to the United States Congress signed by
         | 233 members condemning the policy. The forum has stated that
         | the policy "undermines internationally agreed consensus and
         | goals"."
         | 
         | The global gag rule is enforced by Republican administrations
         | and rescinded by Democratic ones. Infer from that what you
         | will.
         | 
         | 1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mexico_City_policy
        
           | bordercases wrote:
           | The Green Revolution was predicated on the idea that we
           | should increase calorie yields now to prevent famine shocks
           | in key third world populations. The most efficient way to
           | perform well on this single metric is with monoculture and
           | cash crops, due to economy of scale.
           | 
           | This is humane, but it doesn't slowed down population growth,
           | which requires either a bottleneck or a set of loose
           | constraints aside if we want to maintain a constant food
           | yield, ceteris paribus the way we grow food now.
        
           | chiefalchemist wrote:
           | All well and good, but thecountries of Africa are 't the
           | problem. They're not the ones consuming resources
           | disproportionately to their populations.
           | 
           | Is population an issue? Yes, probably. But it's (Western)
           | (over) consumption that got us here, and continues to
           | escalate the crisis.
           | 
           | The less distractions for that, the better.
        
             | triceratops wrote:
             | I'm not disputing anything you're saying. My response, a
             | rebuttal to "we need to focus on population reduction", was
             | about 2 things:
             | 
             | 1. Countries with high population growth numbers do, in
             | fact, focus on bringing those numbers down. China and India
             | have had widespread family planning programs for decades
             | and those have borne fruit.
             | 
             | 2. The country with the highest per-capita consumption in
             | the world conditions a lot of its foreign aid on recipients
             | not promoting family planning. Meanwhile, Internet
             | commenters from that country grumble about poor countries'
             | population numbers.
        
         | alexgmcm wrote:
         | > People keep saying we can feed 10 billion people. We can. But
         | at what cost to the diversity of biological systems?
         | 
         | Also those 10 billion people in the future will be consuming
         | far more per capita as developing nations continue to
         | industrialise.
         | 
         | This is a good thing as everyone deserves a decent life. But if
         | we are all going to have a decent life without destroying the
         | planet then we need to be mindful of how many of us we can
         | sustainably support.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | Resource expenditure per unit of consumption is on a multi-
           | decade long downtrend.
        
         | goatlover wrote:
         | The population is going to stabilize somewhere between 9 and 11
         | billion by around the end of the century, and then start slowly
         | declining. But getting back to 1960s level of population isn't
         | realistic. Maybe several centuries from now. But at that point,
         | we could reasonably expect advanced nanotech, advanced
         | efficient automation, arcologies and fusion to offer
         | sustainably high standards of living for 10+ billion people.
         | 
         | It's really more of a matter of how we make it through the next
         | 100 years.
        
         | skeeter2020 wrote:
         | >> Stabilize populations to 1960s or whatever,
         | 
         | What exactly does this mean? People were pretty upset with
         | China's one child policy (all the unintended side-effects
         | ignored); this sounds even more nefarious? .
        
           | mc32 wrote:
           | It's not something we achieve in 20 years. It would be a
           | century long goal via reduced fertility rates that do not
           | include barbaric tools like forced abortions, etc.
        
             | Scarblac wrote:
             | Yeah, if it takes a century then it will be way too late
             | for biodiversity. The man-made great extinction is right
             | now.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | It's not like we want to be authoritarians and control
               | reproduction directly.
               | 
               | We can only incentivize via education, opportunity and
               | availability of contraceptives.
               | 
               | India for example offers sterilization for men who want
               | to avoid unintended impregnation of partners. They could
               | even incentivize such a thing.
        
               | tacocataco wrote:
               | How can you prevent any incentives becoming economic
               | eugenics?
        
             | whimsicalism wrote:
             | How do we reduce fertility rates?
             | 
             | The enemy you are fighting is natural selection, in this
             | case.
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | Give people (especially women) access to both education
               | and reproductive freedom. It works wonders.
        
               | nitrogen wrote:
               | There seem to be memetic inoculations (i.e. core beliefs
               | that reproduction at a high rate is desirable) in some
               | groups that prevent those wonders from being worked. You
               | eventually reach a point where all children are born to
               | the uneducated or memetically inoculated, so again
               | natural selection is a problem.
        
         | zip1234 wrote:
         | Look at this: https://ourworldindata.org/crop-yields
         | 
         | The yields/unit area go up and to the right, which means two
         | things. One is that we need less land for agriculture, which
         | frees it up for other purposes, including allowing
         | biodiversity/forestland.
        
           | titzer wrote:
           | In my native state of Indiana, cornfields are being converted
           | into subdivisions and parking lots for Lowe's and Walmart.
           | Progress!
        
         | sleepysysadmin wrote:
         | >Stabilize populations to 1960s or whatever, but we need to do
         | the same as we're doing for pollution set a benchmark and aim
         | for it. Get those people educated, provide them with
         | prophylactics and get them out of a pop explosion curve and get
         | to ZPG like Italy and Japan (US as well if we didn't import pop
         | growth).
         | 
         | So about 3 billion people is stable? You're saying we need a
         | reduction of about 5 billion? How do we do that? Which
         | countries need massive depopulation?
        
           | mc32 wrote:
           | I dunno, how did we establish which countries have to reduce
           | greenhouse emissions the most?
           | 
           | When it comes to population regulation it's via reproduction
           | policies that educate women and offer them job opportunities
           | and incentivize them to have sustainable family sizes.
        
             | sleepysysadmin wrote:
             | >I dunno, how did we establish which countries have to
             | reduce greenhouse emissions the most?
             | 
             | You will be frightened how we did that. Canada for example
             | is net-positive and effectively doesn't have to do
             | anything. Not surprising given we have a gigantic boreal
             | forest that stretches across the country. We have almost
             | 10,000 trees per person. So then why do we show up in top
             | 10 worst countries? Our trees don't count, they are
             | considered against us.
             | 
             | >When it comes to population regulation it's via
             | reproduction policies that educate women and offer them job
             | opportunities and incentivize them to have sustainable
             | family sizes.
             | 
             | Well, the 'climate clock' has only 8 years left before
             | DEADline. Education and reproductive policies like only
             | allowing 1 child won't work. We have to obviously do far
             | more to reduce the world population by more than half. What
             | do you think we should do?
        
               | goatlover wrote:
               | > Well, the 'climate clock' has only 8 years left before
               | DEADline.
               | 
               | What DEADline? You mean to keep warming below 1.5degC? Do
               | you suppose if we go ver by .1deg, we all die? That's not
               | how it works. It's better to limit warming, but there's
               | no magic cutoff in which we all die. It's on a continuum,
               | with more warming meaning the increase in the likelihood
               | of extreme events and disruption. Also at some point,
               | increase in the possibility of positive feedback, but
               | that's likely above or near the maximum projected warming
               | range 2.7deg-4degC, and it's still a matter of degree.
               | 
               | The IPCC report does not say we all die in the current
               | projected warming range, or that civilization collapses.
        
         | andrewjl wrote:
         | > People keep saying we can feed 10 billion people.
         | 
         | Whether global population ever reaches 10 billion people is in
         | doubt. Fertility rates are falling _faster_ than the most
         | aggressive UN estimates in all but a few places. [1][2]
         | 
         | [1] https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/22/world/global-
         | population-s...
         | 
         | [2] Empty Planet: The Shock of Global Population Decline by
         | Darrell Bricker, John Ibbitson
        
       | goohle wrote:
       | First, we need to save genetics of as many wild animals, birds,
       | insects, trees, etc. as we can, including their variations, to be
       | able to revert damage to the ecosystem in the future.
       | 
       | Second, we need to make artificial breeders, to help nature to
       | regenerate.
       | 
       | Third, we need to make a continuous web of wild nature, to allow
       | migrations, because isolated ecosystem will die with time no
       | matter what, e.g. because of climate change alone.
        
         | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
         | >Second, we need to make artificial breeders, to help nature to
         | regenerate.
         | 
         | Nature always thrive better when we just them Her do her thing.
         | Leave Nature alone!
        
         | carapace wrote:
         | In re: making a continuous web of wild nature see E.O. Wilson's
         | Half-Earth Project: https://www.half-earthproject.org
         | 
         | > Half-Earth is a call to protect half the land and sea in
         | order to manage sufficient habitat to reverse the species
         | extinction crisis and ensure the long-term health of our
         | planet.
         | 
         | They have a big "virtual summit coming up on the 22nd: Half-
         | Earth Day 2021 https://www.half-earthproject.org/hed2021/
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | TrispusAttucks wrote:
       | We need to convert society to a stability and sustainability
       | model over a growth and efficiency model.
       | 
       | The cracks are showing. We spent the accumulated natural
       | resources and charged the rest on credit to the future of the
       | Earth.
        
       | valgor wrote:
       | Easiest thing we can do as concerned individuals is to stop
       | eating meat and dairy. Much of the deforestation happening across
       | the world is due to farming animals and growing the incredible
       | amount of food farm animals require.
        
         | retrac98 wrote:
         | It's the easiest thing we can do but it's only a small part of
         | the overall problem.
         | 
         | We all need to do much more in addition to just not eating
         | animals. Endless production, consumption and growth the way
         | we're currently doing it is just completely unsustainable.
        
       | pphysch wrote:
       | Current headline: "The Most Important Global Meeting You've Never
       | Heard of Is Now"
       | 
       | Gee, why is that? It only takes "paper of record" NYT 11
       | paragraphs to first mention what the meeting is and its mighty
       | inconvenient host country--and the fact that the US is the only
       | major country not party to the UN Convention on Biological
       | Diversity.
       | 
       | Politics over life.
        
       | Proven wrote:
       | Haha....
       | 
       | That's nothing but another globalist & socialist power grab that
       | will result in more regulations, higher taxes and fewer freedoms.
        
       | mountainboy wrote:
       | These countries should start by reading the book "The Invisible
       | Rainbow: A history of electricity and life".
        
         | rcMgD2BwE72F wrote:
         | Why?
        
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       (page generated 2021-10-14 23:01 UTC)