[HN Gopher] How Facebook is trying to recover the money it lost ...
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       How Facebook is trying to recover the money it lost during the
       outage
        
       Author : alek_m
       Score  : 246 points
       Date   : 2021-10-07 09:31 UTC (13 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.indiehackers.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.indiehackers.com)
        
       | MisterBastahrd wrote:
       | Facebook is the same company that has allowed a bunch of scam
       | artists to advertise a $1500 ice machine for $30 (which is their
       | S&H cost) while using another company's name in their ads. I
       | can't remember the last time I got on facebook and saw a useful
       | ad that wasn't either a scam or completely irrelevant.
        
       | architweetka wrote:
       | Did we ever hear what caused it?
        
         | stepanhruda wrote:
         | https://engineering.fb.com/2021/10/05/networking-traffic/out...
        
       | Ziehm99 wrote:
       | Es una buena alternativa para evitar que los anunciantes sigan
       | generando dinero sin pagar membresias a Facebook, realmente fue
       | una decision acertada.
        
       | Bud wrote:
       | This sounds like straight-up fraud to me. They promised one
       | thing, and now, after an outage that was their own fault, they
       | are intentionally warping and devaluing the nature of the
       | advertising product they sold to customers, so that instead of
       | Facebook deservedly absorbing that loss, customers will absorb
       | it, instead.
        
         | shadowgovt wrote:
         | Not precisely fraud, but it is an example of the negatives of
         | the product vendor (impressions, in this case) also owning the
         | marketplace.
         | 
         | It would be rational for advertisers to pull down their spend
         | to avoid getting hit with devalued impressions. Ironically, if
         | enough folks did, that could cause a panic, which would make
         | things worse for FB.
        
         | mannykannot wrote:
         | I am no fan at all of Facebook, and I would tend to regard the
         | prospect of a dispute between it and its advertisers as a good
         | thing, but here's a slightly-expanded version of the passage
         | quoted in the article:
         | 
         | "We can also confirm that ads did not deliver during the time
         | the systems were offline, and advertisers were not and will not
         | be billed for ads during the outage. Ads have now resumed
         | delivery and some advertisers may see accelerated delivery as
         | our services recover from the outage. We encourage advertisers
         | to review your bids and budgets to ensure they accurately
         | reflect your marketing goals."
         | 
         | One way of looking at this is that Facebook is notifying its
         | advertisers that the outage will affect how advertising is
         | delivered in the following days, and if advertisers want
         | something else to happen, they will have to make the changes
         | themselves. Facebook could reasonably claim that it does not
         | know how any given advertiser would prefer the situation to be
         | handled.
         | 
         | Of course, if it is expensive or inordinately difficult to make
         | such adjustments, then Facebook would come across as
         | dissembling (and not for the first time.)
        
       | jlund-molfese wrote:
       | Is it not possible the ads are being shown to more people than
       | usual due to greater usage of Facebook properties immediately
       | following it coming back online?
       | 
       | I can't find anything that indicates individuals are seeing more
       | ads than usual as a result of the outage, besides the anecdote of
       | the one agency in the article (but maybe the lower conversion
       | rates can be explained by some other factors)
        
         | alek_m wrote:
         | It's not agency per-se; it's one agency managing multiple
         | clients and seeing the same pattern across all of them.
        
           | jlund-molfese wrote:
           | Yes, but I wonder if this anonymous agency has clients all in
           | the same geographic area or industry. The sample size is too
           | small to draw definitive conclusions, because there might be
           | confounding factors, or maybe the agency even made a mistake
           | somewhere.
           | 
           | Of course, the type of data that would be really useful here
           | (detailed ad performance metrics by the hour, across all of
           | Facebook) is the type fb would never willingly publish.
        
       | fatnoah wrote:
       | By showing 1/365 more ads every day for the next year?
        
       | Forge36 wrote:
       | A 50% conversion drop? I wonder what method they have to show ads
       | faster
        
         | willcipriano wrote:
         | "We're really sorry that we didn't manage to get your ad about
         | nursing homes in this months issue of AARP monthly, however we
         | managed to get it into Rad Skateboarders Weekly so we will be
         | sending you a invoice for it anyway."
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | Maybe just showing more of them in a page?
        
         | pixl97 wrote:
         | Remember back in the early 2000's before popup blockers were a
         | thing? You'd hit a page and 100 popups fill the page. When you
         | hit the X and it would spawn new popups filled with ads.
         | 
         | Yea, that's FBs new business model :D
        
           | saalweachter wrote:
           | I do hear a lot of nostalgia for "the old internet".
        
         | tonyedgecombe wrote:
         | Showing ads for cars when the user searched for bars.
        
       | intricatedetail wrote:
       | Where is a tiny violin when you need it?
        
       | ashtonkem wrote:
       | Over a mere $60mil, no less. Literally nothing in the grand
       | scheme of Facebook's profits.
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | .2% of Facebook's gross income if anyone is wondering.
        
         | pixelgeek wrote:
         | This is the thing that I thought was interesting.
         | 
         | I suspect that it has less to do with actual profits and more
         | to do with some wanting to keep their quarterly ad impression
         | numbers up
        
           | furyg3 wrote:
           | Yes this reeks of someones KPI needing to be hit.
        
           | ashtonkem wrote:
           | I think much specifically it's internal competition. My bet,
           | I have no insider knowledge here, is that there are a bunch
           | of individual product owners vying to look good compared to
           | each other here. Nobody wants to have their weekly numbers
           | look bad because they didn't accelerate delivery while their
           | peers do, so as a whole the company does something bad for
           | everyone over a trifling amount of profit.
        
             | pixelgeek wrote:
             | I think that is probably exactly what it is
        
       | motoboi wrote:
       | We all hate facebook. Ok. No problema.
       | 
       | But Facebook is actually trying to help its costumers recover the
       | money lost during the outage.
       | 
       | US$ 60 million? Pff. Just ask every executive to skip one
       | executive jet travel per week and they recover that in a month or
       | less.
        
       | Macha wrote:
       | This doesn't seem _that_ strange. In online advertising, there
       | are the concepts of pacing (to ensure the ad campaign delivers
       | somewhat evenly over the lifespan - not because there's any
       | evidence that it improves performance, but because the advertiser
       | would feel miffed if you spent all the budget in the first day of
       | their month long campaign), and frequency capping (attempting not
       | to show the same ad to the same person too many times - clearer
       | benefits to performance here).
       | 
       | Both of these will limit the rate at which an ad spends money. If
       | it doesn't get shown for a long period of time, both of these
       | factors get reduced, and the ad can get selected more
       | aggressively, particularly if you are a higher bidder than the
       | ads that would have got chosen in your absence.
        
         | ineedasername wrote:
         | _pacing... not because there 's any evidence that it improves_
         | 
         | In the limited experience I have in this arena, it does improve
         | performance. Hitting someone a second time about t+2weeks had
         | the biggest bump, and then the next biggest another month later
         | at t+6weeks.
         | 
         | I don't know if it's universally true, and the optimization may
         | vary depending on the context and content, but pacing can
         | definitely make a difference for some.
        
           | Gigachad wrote:
           | I don't think they were talking about the same person seeing
           | the ad, but if you show 1000 people the ad a day for 10 days
           | or show 10,000 people the ad in one day.
        
             | Jenk wrote:
             | Unless there is a guarantee there is 1,000 new people per
             | day then it certainly does apply. I think the usual pattern
             | for pacing is to cover multiple bases from repeat visits to
             | trying to cast a wider net to catch people at the right
             | time(s) both personally and in perhaps wider campaign with
             | other sites/mediums.
        
             | ineedasername wrote:
             | That would be different, but I think still have a negative
             | impact. You can't show 10,000 people the same number of ads
             | in the same period of time as usual while also delivering
             | ads faster. So it means you're showing people more ads than
             | usual.
             | 
             | But attention is a limited resource. If you throw more ads
             | at me, I'm not necessarily going to respond to more of
             | them. The more ads there are, the more it becomes
             | background noise.
        
               | Gigachad wrote:
               | Facebook can show 1 ad campaign per day to the user base
               | instead of 30 ads getting 1/30th of the target market
               | each day over a month.
               | 
               | To the individual user, they can't tell anything
               | different between these two types of campaigns. It just
               | makes the advertiser feel better that their money is
               | lasting longer.
        
               | ineedasername wrote:
               | You can't speed that up en masse without showing more
               | adds to the people than you normally would. If facebook
               | is taking the backlog of all the ads from all the
               | advertisers and pushing that out faster to the same group
               | of users over a short period of time, there is no
               | avoiding the fact that users will see more adds per unit
               | of time during this time period.
        
         | mountainb wrote:
         | Sometimes pacing makes a huge difference, actually, and you can
         | smurf your performance metrics to a better place by cutting out
         | times, day ranges, demographics, and so on.
        
         | shadowgovt wrote:
         | Yeah, this news belongs in the pile "Things advertisers will
         | probably care about," but it doesn't have a universal moral /
         | ethical category. It's more a side-effect of existing rules
         | being applied to an unusual circumstance (I doubt the rules
         | were written with an eye towards "What if Facebook is down a
         | whole day?" because that isn't supposed to ever happen). Some
         | advertisers won't like the outcome, some will be ambivalent to
         | it.
        
       | stevespang wrote:
       | This was Zuckerbergs idea - - so much of the hideous evil comes
       | directly from the top . . .
        
       | willcipriano wrote:
       | Are we post honor? I have this magical machine that makes me,
       | what ten million dollars an hour? After many years of constant
       | service, one of my employees messes up and it goes down for a few
       | hours. Rather then eating the loss, that isn't much of loss since
       | my margins are as wide as the grand canyon, I crank the machine
       | up so it runs faster and produces a inferior quality product.
       | 
       | Did Veruca Salt grow up and get a job at Facebook?
        
         | Clubber wrote:
         | "That terminator is out there, it cant be bargained with, it
         | cant be reasoned with, it doesn't feel pity or remorse or fear,
         | and it absolutely will not stop... EVER, until you are dead!"
        
       | zpeti wrote:
       | When you setup a facebook ad, you literally say to them: spend
       | $100 per day.
       | 
       | Then Facebook has a 6 hour outage. Facebook can then show more
       | ads to users per time on Facebook, to get to the $100 per day. Or
       | it can only spend $75 that day.
       | 
       | I imagine some advertisers will prefer the first option, some the
       | second. Facebook's machine learning algorithms will do something.
       | 
       | But I don't see the massively malicious intent here. Most likely
       | this isn't even a human decision. The algorithms just know then
       | have to spend $100 per day.
       | 
       | Fine, if there really are 50% less conversions, that's an issue,
       | but frankly 6 hours won't really matter.
        
         | roland35 wrote:
         | I think it's also 6 prime hours of the day too - if it was down
         | between 12-6am I'm sure that wouldn't have been nearly a big of
         | a problem (in the US at least)
        
         | ctvo wrote:
         | > _Fine, if there really are 50% less conversions, that 's an
         | issue, but frankly 6 hours won't really matter._
         | 
         | You buried the lede with things we already know for some
         | reason.
         | 
         | Two things:
         | 
         | - It's 6 hours and 60 million dollars to them, which is
         | absolutely nothing, but they risked harming their customers
         | (advertisers) over it. This was Facebook's screw-up, and now
         | they're passing it on to their advertisers. When you view
         | advertisers as captured, you worry less about their experience
         | and attempt to extract as much value as possible.
         | 
         | - It's systemic. Someone in another thread mentioned there are
         | good people at Facebook, and they can't reconcile the behavior
         | exposed in internal documents with those good people. This is a
         | great example. When your performance is tied to metrics like
         | advertiser spend, even when you had the largest outage in your
         | recent history, you'll immediately hop on afterwards to direct
         | your team to try and extract the most money out of advertisers
         | possible to make up for it. These individual incentives add up
         | to form the predatory company that we see externally.
        
           | auggierose wrote:
           | If you say 60 million is absolutely nothing, then it is also
           | clear that no ethics whatsoever will survive unsupervised in
           | that kind of climate. No matter how good intentions initially
           | were.
        
           | stickfigure wrote:
           | I think it's a bit too early to break out the outrage cannon.
           | This is just an automated system. They're probably still
           | putting out the fires and assessing damage. It will be some
           | time before somebody can assess the data and figure out what
           | "the right thing" for customers is.
           | 
           | If you were an ad customer during this period and you feel
           | you weren't getting your expected value, ask for a credit?
           | 
           | If you weren't - why are you so upset? Are you just looking
           | for some excuse to feel angry at Facebook?
        
             | ctvo wrote:
             | > _I think it 's a bit too early to break out the outrage
             | cannon. This is just an automated system._
             | 
             | Maybe? I'm not in the ads space. I don't know if there are
             | automated systems built in with "you now only have 16 hours
             | to display the ads, display them even when they're less
             | relevant".
             | 
             | > _If you were an ad customer during this period and you
             | feel you weren 't getting your expected value, ask for a
             | credit?_
             | 
             | Why do customers need to do this when Facebook messed up,
             | and had to learn about this, and look into performance,
             | from a source other than Facebook?
             | 
             | > _If you weren 't - why are you so upset? Are you just
             | looking for some excuse to feel angry at Facebook?_
             | 
             | Y u mad bro? hasn't worked in quite a while.
        
               | solveit wrote:
               | > Why do customers need to do this when Facebook messed
               | up, and had to learn about this, and look into
               | performance, from a source other than Facebook?
               | 
               | Have you bought anything from anyone ever...?
        
           | kritiko wrote:
           | Some advertisers - e.g. large CPG with branding goals - might
           | care more about even delivery and spending the budget than
           | performance.
           | 
           | That said, it seems wrong to use accelerated delivery for
           | anybody using the Facebook pixel for conversion optimization.
        
       | malikfarhan wrote:
       | Good job
        
       | danuker wrote:
       | Do dealings with unethical companies, get scammed by unethical
       | companies.
        
       | Waspdotmk wrote:
       | Well everything for the upper hand. They're (fb) are becoming a
       | comical villain in this story.
        
       | atkailash wrote:
       | I hate this language. They didn't lose money to recover. It's not
       | like they dropped their wallet. They simply just didn't get it,
       | it was never theirs to lose. This sort of language for businesses
       | is ridiculous and seems almost classist, like the money people
       | earn somehow belongs to the businesses we spend it on.
       | 
       | I don't say I'm losing millions a day because I'm not CEO of
       | Facebook anymore than they lost money by not having a running
       | service.
        
       | cbsmith wrote:
       | This is just ad networks doing what ad networks do.
        
         | nosedrip wrote:
         | DSPs are like dogs if you let them be: they eat all the budget,
         | you want them to act like cats and stop eating when they're
         | 'full'. If the outage causes budget to be spend in an
         | accelerated way, this will probably mean less relevant ad
         | placements.
        
       | aleppe7766 wrote:
       | This is too stupid to be true. For a 6-hour outage to
       | significantly increase the ad frequency (and lower the conversion
       | rate) you should pressure the system to recover the outage in a
       | day or two; do they really need it? We're not even at the end of
       | the month...
        
       | bob229 wrote:
       | Facebook is an evil empire
        
       | fairity wrote:
       | Reader beware. Don't take unsubstantiated claims (such as this
       | article) as fact.
       | 
       | As someone who spends five figures daily on FB, I saw no such
       | drop in performance -- nor have other advertisers I've been in
       | touch with.
       | 
       | Performance on FB (especially at low volumes) is highly volatile
       | on a day-over-day basis. So, at any time, there will always be a
       | subset of advertisers who think "CPA's are skyrocketing". And,
       | it's easy to draw the conclusion that the pattern is platform-
       | wide.
       | 
       | The "accelerated delivery" that Facebook quoted in its response
       | only applied to the remainder of the day that the outage took
       | place -- not future days as the article suggests.
        
         | colpabar wrote:
         | please stop giving them so much money :)
        
         | EastOfTruth wrote:
         | Are you getting a discount for this comment?
        
         | cosmie wrote:
         | This. Facebook makes available a lot of configurable parameters
         | around bidding and budgeting[1].
         | 
         | If you've set a campaign-level budget, Facebook's system paces
         | delivery to spread that budget from the start date to the end
         | date. It automatically adjusts pacing to fluctuations in
         | delivery, this 6 hour outage is just a drastic version of that,
         | where there was zero delivery across the board vs. more
         | localized fluctuations in consumer behavior that usually impact
         | pacing for individual advertisers.
         | 
         | So it has to accelerate delivery for the remainder of the
         | campaign to compensate, and since it's doing that for all ads
         | with this type of budgeting configuration it's resulting in an
         | auction grab for available impressions and temporarily bumping
         | up CPMs as a result.
         | 
         | Which isn't necessarily a positive for advertisers, but sounds
         | like their system doing what it normally does, and just having
         | some unanticipated second order impacts when faced with an
         | extreme event (compensating for global lack of delivery for 25%
         | of an entire day).
         | 
         | If your budgeting/bidding/optimization configuration doesn't
         | require a specific spend within a specific timeframe, you're
         | not going to see this sort of acceleration. But you will see
         | higher CPMs due to the increased auction activity from _others_
         | having their pacing accelerated. And they weren 't collecting
         | FB pixel data for 6 hours either, so conversion activity will
         | also be underreported and show higher CPAs. But CPA-based
         | optimization configurations are still in place and doing what
         | they normally do, and frequency caps if you use them are still
         | limiting how many times your ad will show to the same person.
         | So even those seeing accelerated delivery and not wanting to
         | could adjust their ads' settings to avoid it.
         | 
         | > The "accelerated delivery" that Facebook quoted in its
         | response only applied to the remainder of the day that the
         | outage took place -- not future days as the article suggests.
         | 
         | It does actually impact future days, just to a far lesser
         | extent than day-of. Pacing jacked up the day of to attempt to
         | compensate for expected pacing that day, but for those that
         | didn't achieve it they'll continued seeing accelerated delivery
         | beyond that to hit the spend target by end of campaign. Plus
         | second order effects as their optimization see-saws around
         | until things settle back down.
         | 
         | [1] https://www.facebook.com/business/help/1619591734742116
        
         | mrRandomGuy wrote:
         | You spend 5 figures daily on Facebook and didn't notice any
         | drop in performance when the site was gone for half the day?
         | 
         | Do you actually need to spend that much..?
        
           | fairity wrote:
           | > You didn't notice any drop in performance when the site was
           | gone for half the day?
           | 
           | Delivery for the day dropped, but performance as measured
           | through CPA (or ROAS) remained stable.
           | 
           | > Do you actually need to spend that much..?
           | 
           | Ultimately, we're trying to maximize profit. So, we advertise
           | until the cost per incremental conversion is greater than a
           | customer's ltv.
        
             | ffhhj wrote:
             | > performance as measured through CPA (or ROAS) remained
             | stable
             | 
             | CPA should be affected, seems like FB is giving an
             | artificial measurement. Reminds me of the Big Short.
        
             | Reubachi wrote:
             | I'm a layman in availability and how your service relies
             | upon it,
             | 
             | But how can your engagement from clients be "the same",
             | despite half the availability?
             | 
             | Does this imply that all else perfect andavailable,every
             | day, you could have a volatile swing of up to 50 percent
             | engagement?
             | 
             | If so, that seems really really silly to drop 10k+ on
             | daily, if on half of all days you don't NEED the platform
             | for half the day...what am I missing?
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | _> how can your engagement from clients be  "the same",
               | despite half the availability?_
               | 
               | Essentially, it's 'engagement per dollar', not 'total
               | engagement'
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | killingtime74 wrote:
           | "Half of my advertising is wasted - but no one can tell me
           | which half!"
        
         | malshe wrote:
         | I hope you realize that your claim is as unsubstantiated as the
         | one in the article.
        
       | mohirul wrote:
       | nice project
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | habeebtc wrote:
       | While shady on Facebook's part, it does match the general
       | shadiness of Facebook ads.
       | 
       | It is legit hard to find ads which are not a scam in some way.
        
         | moooo99 wrote:
         | I mean what is a shady about the dropshipping store trying to
         | sell you a cheap imported product for a 400% markup or the guru
         | with the rented Lamborghini who is trying to sell you on his
         | course on how to 10000x your money by trading forex? /s
         | 
         | I know the example mentioned is facebook, but I feel like a
         | similar development is going on with other ad networks as well.
         | Even on YouTube around 40-50% of all ads I get are by some guy
         | trying to sell me on his dropshipping, forex trading, crypto or
         | tax evasion course.
        
       | Ziehm99 wrote:
       | Es una buena alternativa para evitar que los anunciantes se
       | aprovechen de generar dinero ilicito.
        
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       (page generated 2021-10-07 23:02 UTC)