[HN Gopher] Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early n...
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Norway to hit 100% electric vehicle sales by early next year
Author : fourmii
Score : 201 points
Date : 2021-10-06 20:00 UTC (3 hours ago)
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| tannhaeuser wrote:
| Isn't that a strange thing, considering Norway is vast, has low
| population density especially in the north, and has own oil
| resources available?
| tobinfricke wrote:
| Norway has plentiful hydropower, so electric cars do make sense
| there.
|
| They do have huge crude oil reserves, but do they have any
| refining capability?
| magicalhippo wrote:
| > do they have any refining capability
|
| Only two[1], but one of them is somewhat big[2], producing 4x
| the domestic consumption of gasoline.
|
| [1]: https://no.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oljeraffineri#Oljeraffiner
| ier_...
|
| [2]: https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/terminals-and-
| refineri...
| elygre wrote:
| It seems the answer is yes. There are two refineries.
| According to https://www.equinor.com/en/what-we-do/terminals-
| and-refineri..., Mongstad (the larger of the two) has
| capacity: "Petrol (gasoline) production at Mongstad is 4
| times Norwegian domestic consumption"
| [deleted]
| dogma1138 wrote:
| When a Models S costs about as much as a Mazda 3... what would
| you buy?
| kmonsen wrote:
| That's why it's not going to be 100%. Just someone looking at a
| graph and extrapolating.
| Unbeliever69 wrote:
| https://www.forbes.com/sites/ianpalmer/2021/06/19/why-norway...
| Syonyk wrote:
| Their tax structure on vehicles is such that a loaded Tesla
| costs about the same as a Civic - the taxes (that are exempt on
| EVs) are quite massive on new cars.
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plug-in_electric_vehicles_in_N...
| has extensive details, but they've got a set of incentives that
| _exceedingly_ favor BEVs.
| digikata wrote:
| One way to avoid the resource curse is to use the bounty of the
| resource to develop diversified dependencies/capabilities for a
| future when that resource runs out or is devalued.
| tuatoru wrote:
| Norway is wealthy thanks to selling fossil fuels. Norwegians
| feel guilty about that, but not guilty enough to stop selling
| them.
|
| This is essentially performative environmentalism from them.
| Still, it will help other countries by throwing up unforeseen
| problems in all-electric ground transportation, and some
| solutions.
| bellyfullofbac wrote:
| I don't think it's a country of virtue signallers as you
| think, just people who like to get the best bang for their
| buck. And gas cars as well as fuel get taxed so much, that
| buying electric makes sense for them.
|
| Who would've thunk, economic incentives help!? Sadly in many
| other places the deciding economic incentives are the ones
| the politicians get from the oil and ICE car industry.
| bagacrap wrote:
| arguably, taxes are the government's way of making the
| decision for the people, so if by "Norway" gp more
| accurately meant "the government of Norway", you haven't
| refuted their claims
| matsemann wrote:
| We (as in the Norwegian population) have voted for
| politicians supporting this, though. At the election a
| month ago, it was just a thousand or so votes from being
| an incredible amount of green representatives.
| bpodgursky wrote:
| The claim is not that the individuals buying cars are
| signalling, it is the public policy (incentivizing
| individual EV ownership while exporting carbon emissions)
| which is hypocritical.
| opinion-is-bad wrote:
| Norway also spends a lot of energy criticizing foreign
| regimes for attempting to follow the same path as Norway;
| prosperity through natural resource extraction. It's
| great that Norway has gotten rich enough to turn the
| corner, but not every country is so fortunate.
| nso wrote:
| Norway has been relatively wealthy for quite some time.
| Before oil it was from fishing and shipping, amongst others.
| [deleted]
| shkkmo wrote:
| Norway has been doing a relatively good job of investing
| their oil revenue into technologies and infrastructure that
| will carry their economy through the end of oil and hopefully
| help reduce global warming.
|
| Given their relatively contribution to the total global
| production and OPEC's supply management to control prices, it
| is unclear if a halt in Norwegian oil sales would raise
| prices significantly enough to matter. There is an argument
| to be made that is is better for Norway to capture those
| profit and invest them into the research we need to reduce
| oil dependence and sequester CO2.
|
| I don't think that the electric car adoption is purely driven
| by environmentalism. Norway has extremely cheap energy that
| makes electric cars much more economically attractive.
| dagw wrote:
| _I don 't think that the electric car adoption is purely
| driven by environmentalism._
|
| On an individual level basically no one in Norway buys an
| electric car due to environmentalism. It's 100% an economic
| decision. Buying a new gasoline powered car today in Norway
| simply doesn't make financial sense no matter how you look
| at it.
| tuatoru wrote:
| s/oil/heroin/g
| outside1234 wrote:
| They also get the shit taxed out of them for buying a IC car,
| so electric cars are actually cheaper.
| robotresearcher wrote:
| Which is a political decision made in a democracy, not a
| law of physics. Norwegians chose to do this. (Yes, a
| relatively small subset of people are actually empowered in
| a democracy, but it's the least-bad system known, etc etc).
| richlandlord wrote:
| Not only there was no referendum that allowed Norwegians
| to decide if this was their political volition, but
| political volition alone is not enough to tax something.
| If it were, everything would be taxed, because you can
| construct any 51% against any 49% on any topic and add a
| tax.
|
| If you want to know what Norwegians really think about
| the tax, make it optional and see how many people pay for
| it.
| vkou wrote:
| > If you want to know what Norwegians really think about
| the tax, make it optional and see how many people pay for
| it.
|
| If you want to see what Norwegians really think about
| paying for things in stores, make shoplifting laws
| completely optional, and replace cash registers with tip
| jars, and see how that works out.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| They are also rich to the tune of $200k saved in the nations
| coffers for every citizen.
| robotresearcher wrote:
| That's an awful lot of money. The US National Debt is around
| $80K per US citizen. The War in Afghanistan cost around $7K
| per US citizen, based on numbers from Wikipedia.
| nerdawson wrote:
| The UK and Norway found oil in the North Sea around the same
| time. Norway used that revenue to create the world's largest
| sovereign wealth fund. The UK squandered it on tax cuts.
| FourthProtocol wrote:
| Scandinavia in general takes global warming more seriously than
| most other countries on the planet. And so this isn't strange
| at all. The whole of Europe is amping up alternatives to
| petrol- and diesel-based transportation, from e-bikes, cargo
| e-bikes, e-scooters to Teslas and electric Porsches (Taycan),
| and anything inbetween.
| shkkmo wrote:
| Norway isn't really that vast. It's about the size of New
| Mexico but has twice the population density.
| dagw wrote:
| _It 's about the size of New Mexico_
|
| It is however much more spread out. Driving from the
| northernmost to southern most town of New Mexico is ~700 km.
| Driving from the southern most to northern most town of
| Norway is over 2300 km, or about the same has from the
| southernmost town of New Mexico to the Canadian border.
| shkkmo wrote:
| It's not about the max travelable distance in the country
| but the max distance actually traveled for most trips. The
| higher density (and population concentration in the south)
| reduces the latter and makes maintaining a charging network
| much more practical (their high adoption rate also help a
| lot with that.)
|
| Edit: The reason why this is the important measure is
| because what people care about is how often their trips
| require N charging stops not the maximum number of charging
| stops they might have to make.
| thomasfl wrote:
| There's a huge price difference between electric cars and gas
| fueled cars here in Norway. Gas fueled car buyers have to pay
| both 25 percent VAT and an additional tax on purchase. Buyers
| don't have to pay neither of those taxes if they buy an electric
| car. The singer of the group A-ha, Morten Harket, bought an
| electrical car in 1989 and refused to pay road tolls and ignored
| all the subsequent fines. That got a lot of attention, and Norway
| ended up having very affordable electrical cars compared to gas
| fueled cars. Norway is one of Tesla's main market.
| mfer wrote:
| How is Norway handling the increased use of the electric grid?
| I ask because Elon noted the US power grid needed to double
| output to handle a full is transition
| paultnylund wrote:
| Last I heard, they actually have so much excess power that
| they're selling it to the UK.
| albertop wrote:
| Do you know how they are generating electricity?
| hackerNoose wrote:
| Lots of cheap hydro.
| sdenton4 wrote:
| Lots of water in them fjords:
|
| https://www.statista.com/statistics/1025497/distribution-
| of-...
|
| 93 percent hydro, 4 percent wind, 2.5 percent thermal.
| xyproto wrote:
| Mostly hydroelectric. 98% renewable energy sources.
|
| https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electricity_sector_in_Nor
| way
| xyproto wrote:
| Yes, and the electricity trade may contribute to higher
| prices for local consumers.
| mbakke wrote:
| Norway exports excess power most of the year. 71% over the
| last three years according to this page:
|
| https://www.statnett.no/for-aktorer-i-kraftbransjen/tall-
| og-...
| fortuna86 wrote:
| > Norway is one of Tesla's main market.
|
| This is also because they are a small, very rich country and
| cannot be used as a comparison to others.
| matsemann wrote:
| Other stuff is free/reduced toll on roads, lots of free
| charging, often cheaper parking on public spots, can use the
| bus lanes in heavy traffic (probably soon going away now that
| half the cars being electric would block the buses).
| marvin wrote:
| Would be interesting to eventually hear Elon Musk's thoughts on
| Norway's role in Tesla's success. We were a very big market for
| them in 2013-2018, one might suspect critical.
| magicalhippo wrote:
| With half the Teslas made going to Norway for quite a while,
| I think indeed it was a key to their success.
|
| Not just the numbers, but also the geography and climate.
| Make a car that can be used for a long trip any time of the
| year here, and you're set for most markets.
|
| There's a reason why car makers come to Norway and Sweden to
| test their new cars before launch.
| mikewave wrote:
| What was he driving in '89?
| Koshkin wrote:
| A converted Fiat Panda.
|
| https://reasonstobecheerful.world/norway-gm-electric-cars-
| mo...
| iddan wrote:
| That is a a great way of using social impact for the
| environment. Celebs should really how can they actions like
| this
| 52-6F-62 wrote:
| Neil Young made a similar effort:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LincVolt
| tkbeili wrote:
| Very interesting. In Canada, it will take years to recoup the
| price difference for buying an electric car even with
| government incentives. 25% VAT + Extra tax seems to work.
| jszymborski wrote:
| Agreed! We have subsidies for electric vehicles under a
| certain price, but imo prices just get inflated to "what the
| market is willing to pay" + "value of the subsidy"
| dietr1ch wrote:
| Isn't that intended? That extra revenue should also come
| with extra pressure to deliver cost-efficient products as
| new parties may want a share of that sweet subsidy.
| Initially it may look like the subsidy is just throwing out
| money, but if the subsidy is kept around for a while it
| becomes a bounty for future competitors.
| mikewave wrote:
| That's mostly because of the lack of midmarket cars.
|
| I bought a used sub-$20k electrical car a few months ago; it
| can be done. The market needs pressure to create cars in that
| price range; right now EVs are mostly luxury cars. Tesla is
| not the car we should be aiming for; what we need are things
| in the class of the E-Golf, Kia Niro, FFE, Fiat 500E etc.
| that are the size of a Corolla and cost 20k CAD or less.
|
| Until that's common on the market, the value proposition is
| flawed and nobody is buying an electric car to save money
| except for people who buy used cars that someone else has
| eaten the depreciation on (like me), or people who drive a
| LOT. Everyone else is basically buying these things as luxury
| items, and the cost doesn't matter, especially when you can
| get near-0% financing over 5+ years.....
| _3u10 wrote:
| Yeah, used EVs depreciate quickly. I'm comparing new Tesla
| Plaids to the C8 Corvette and due to depreciation its
| looking like the C8 will be much cheaper, and much more fun
| to drive. The C8 will drop 30k in 5 years according to
| C6/C7 data, whereas a Plaid will likely drop 70k. If I
| spend less than $800 a month on fuel the C8 is cheaper.
|
| Currently C8s are appreciating their first year, which is
| really weird.
|
| The Model S is really chonky at almost 5000 lbs, which is
| the same as a 4Runner.
| ytdytvhxgydvhh wrote:
| > Currently C8s are appreciating their first year, which
| is really weird.
|
| Why is that weird? That seems typical for new, extremely
| popular cars where supply isn't meeting demand. It
| happened years ago with the PT Cruiser, and when Mini
| (re-)entered the US market. It's happened with Teslas
| too. Right now it's happening with the C8 Corvette and
| Ford Bronco, which are both really tough to find on
| dealer lots. In 5 or 10 years, they'll have depreciated
| like more typical used cars. The tough part is guessing
| when supply will become sufficient (and values will
| drop).
| TaylorAlexander wrote:
| Please donate to your local food bank. Many people are
| hungry. You can help. Perhaps this one is local to you:
|
| https://www.accfb.org/
| _3u10 wrote:
| Great idea thanks for the suggestion, however, I'll keep
| people employed instead so they don't need the food bank.
|
| "I believe the best social program is a job." -- Ronald
| Reagan
| zipswitch wrote:
| Jobs are a _cost_.
|
| Jobs are necessary to maintain our society and
| civilization, but they are not a positive good in and of
| themselves.
| et2o wrote:
| Young tech employees with valuable transferable skills
| vs. typical food bank user (not meant as a slight!) are
| different populations most likely.
| filoleg wrote:
| > _Yeah, used EVs depreciate quickly._
|
| Yeah, not sure about that. Currently, used Model 3 LR AWD
| from 2019 with around 10k-20k mileage go for just a few
| grand cheaper than what I bought it for (new) in 2019[0].
|
| 0. https://www.cargurus.com/Cars/l-Used-2019-Tesla-
| Model-3-Long...
| neutronicus wrote:
| You also need to make it realistic for people to own EVs
| without also owning a single-family home. My wife and I
| probably would have bought a PHEV, but we lived in an
| apartment so ... we went Hybrid instead.
|
| As it is the EV subsidies are really just helping
| homeowners buy luxury cars which seems a little backwards
| et2o wrote:
| This is a great point. I would have loved to buy an EV
| (or trade in my current gas vehicle which I don't use all
| that much for an EV), but the logistical annoyances of
| charging it in a busy city appear to be substantial.
| pmalynin wrote:
| And especially now with the added burden of the "luxury" car
| tax.
| _3u10 wrote:
| The luxury car tax doesn't really apply to new cars. If the
| seller is registered with the govt as a seller of luxury
| goods then it does not apply.
|
| https://www.canada.ca/en/department-
| finance/programs/consult...
| nereye wrote:
| And in parts of Canada apparently you have to pay additional
| taxes if you buy an EV, i.e. there are disincentives as
| opposed to incentives. Sold as being an effort to balance the
| lack of revenue from EVs skipping the various taxes on gas.
| E.g.: https://electrek.co/2021/10/04/canadian-group-
| satirizes-sask....
| tclancy wrote:
| The petroleum industry should have sent that race driver with
| the wrench to fix his little electric wagon.
| ostenning wrote:
| Meanwhile in Australia: electric cars are getting taxed more to
| support the aging oil infrastructure
| njovin wrote:
| Similar in California and other states. The states typically
| tax gasoline and since electrics don't use any they are
| implementing special fees on electric vehicle purchases to
| make up for lost revenue.
|
| One would think that the savings in pollution (not only for
| the car itself, but the transport of the fuel, pollution from
| refineries, etc.) would offset any lost revenue from gas
| taxes.
|
| What makes this really nonsensical is that many states still
| have electric vehicle rebates. They give you a rebate of a
| few thousand dollars to reward you for buying an electric
| vehicle but then charge you a few hundred dollars to punish
| you for buying an electric vehicle.
| no_butterscotch wrote:
| Wow really?
|
| I have a Tesla in CA and am only familiar with the electric
| vehicle credit (not sure what it is, I haven't looked into
| it) and the "you get to use carpool lanes" rule for EVs.
|
| Otherwise, I'm not familiar with extra taxes :(
| fdr wrote:
| EVs still drive on roads.
| sdenton4 wrote:
| Roads? Where were going we don't need... Well, ok, I
| guess the future didn't work out that way after all.
| SomeCallMeTim wrote:
| In Colorado at least it's not that high. $50 plus a small
| amount (today) that goes up over time to no more than $96
| in the 2031-2032 fiscal year.
|
| It's CERTAINLY a lot less than you'd be paying in gas tax
| if you used your car an average amount.
|
| Taxes aren't punishment, anyway. Especially "road use
| taxes", which are, in this case, used to repair the roads
| you're driving on.
|
| [1] https://afdc.energy.gov/laws/11486
| anonporridge wrote:
| It will be interesting if there comes a point where ICE vehicles
| are such a small minority of all vehicles, that supporting
| infrastructure (petrol stations, traditional mechanics, oil
| change services, etc) starts to collapse and disappear.
|
| There may still be some infrastructure for special use cases like
| long haul trucking or industrial vehicles, but it might become
| untenable for the average consumer to own an ICE vehicle, just
| like it was painfully difficult to own an EV before charging
| stations became widespread.
|
| When that happens, it could further accelerate the
| decommissioning of old vehicles.
| doublesocket wrote:
| The UK's recent fuel shortages have apparently spurred on EV
| sales so this seems likely.
| anonporridge wrote:
| This makes me wonder if the Colonial Pipeline cyberattack
| indirectly led to an acceleration of EV adoption.
|
| All of these events make more and more people recognize the
| relative weakness and fragility of an oil based civilization
| compared to an electric one.
| bellyfullofbac wrote:
| On the topic of Norwegian oil, a fascinating story of an Iraqi
| who helped them deal with being an oil-producing nation:
| https://web.archive.org/web/20100123225932/http://www.ft.com...
|
| He was an oil expert who met a Norwegian au-pair in London, they
| got together, married, had a sick kid so they decided to move to
| Norway, and because he had the whole day before he could take the
| train from Oslo to her hometown, he decided to visit the Ministry
| of Industry to get leads on oil jobs...
| jezzzabell wrote:
| That was a great read, thanks. I loved that they highlighted
| the role of a proper regulatory body as a key factor in the
| success of the oil industry in Norway.
| LatteLazy wrote:
| There has been a similar big bump in the uk (to 17% not 100 but
| still...). How much of this is that a lot of legacy companies
| can't produce anything because they can't get chips?
| noselasd wrote:
| Most EVs sold are produced by legacy companies
| riazrizvi wrote:
| Norway produces over 93% of its electricity from hydroelectric
| sources and the rest from wind and thermal ones.
|
| I think they have just become the first country to unlock this
| tech IRL Civ.
| overkill28 wrote:
| There are some serious caveats here:
|
| > seven out of every eight cars bought and sold in Norway a used
| car. The NAF's numbers show that of the 357,176 ownership
| registration changes so far in 2021, electric vehicles only
| accounted for 12 per cent.
|
| And their definition of electric cars includes hybrids (whereas I
| think most people interpret it to mean fully electric). So
| they're obviously doing great but the vast majority of the
| vehicles in Norway are still ICE only.
| lonelyasacloud wrote:
| It's good that Norway may hit 100% electric EV. But with ~20% of
| their economy based on oil and gas production, it's hard not to
| think of it being funded largely by exporting pollution
| elsewhere.
| guerby wrote:
| Warning probable pro tesla bias but here is a video about market
| for EV in other countries than Norway:
|
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJpLm0uuVgA
|
| "When will we have 100% EV adoption ? Norway was NOT fast,
| compared to what is coming." BestInTESLA
| WalterBright wrote:
| 20% of Norway's GDP comes from pumping oil out of the ground and
| selling it for others to burn. If they were really green that
| would stop.
| dtech wrote:
| At least they are using that money for citizens and green
| energy instead of Ferrari's of the royal family
| AustinDev wrote:
| Ferarris don't contribute at all to global warming
| relatively. The many Gulfstream's and 747's the wealthy own
| are actually statistically significant in terms of impact.
| ResearchCode wrote:
| Neither do all but a few countries.
| toomuchtodo wrote:
| The House of Saud, for some time, has attempted and failed
| to diversify away from oil wealth for when the time comes
| they can no longer rely on it. Norway, arguably, will reach
| that point soon (as they've bootstrapped electric mobility
| and can now deprecate existing petroleum supply chains,
| both for domestic use and for export).
|
| Be like Norway and use the time you have left selling a
| natural resource wisely, because bans and cross border
| tariffs are coming, and you'll be left with what you could
| build during your transition when the revenue dries up.
| Hopefully as a country, you don't end up empty handed.
|
| (Norway also supplies the UK with a large amount of clean
| hydro power, roughly 690MW continuous, through a newly
| commissioned underwater HVDC transmission line, so it's not
| all dirty fossil exports)
| Le_Dook wrote:
| Heck, I know they're hybrids but just look formula one. The
| total emissions of every car, from all sessions at every
| single race in a year combined produce less emissions than
| a one way flight from London to New York. Which is then
| completed negated by the fact that the drivers all take
| private jets around the world
| dd444fgdfg wrote:
| i don't think that's a good comparison. think how many
| flights a single F1 race "causes". Not just the team
| members, theirs cars and equipment, but the millions of
| fans traveling to races around the world.
| bogomipz wrote:
| That seems like an odd concession given that the need to
| curtail the burning of fossil fuels is literally a global
| concern.
| thomasfl wrote:
| As a Norwegian I totally agree with you. It is not just
| unethical, but stupid to invest so much in searching for new
| old fields. When demand for oil drops, Norway could have a
| Kodak moment.
| r00fus wrote:
| Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in USD)
| that is setup specifically for this eventuality.
|
| Many large oil exporting countries know the good times won't
| last, and are planning for it.
| ars wrote:
| > Norway has a sovereign wealth fund (valuation: 1.4T in
| USD) that is setup specifically for this eventuality.
|
| That's not much - $25K per person over 10 years, and with
| an average income of $70K per person, and something like
| half of their economy is energy (most if not all social
| programs are funded from energy production).
|
| If oil were to stop tomorrow, they'd have around 10 years
| before the money runs out. (Maybe a bit longer since kids
| don't earn money.) And if they have to replace all the
| social funding, they'd have even less time.
|
| Norway is relying on slow reduction in demand, and time to
| transition their economy. Will they have it? It's far from
| certain. I feel like Norwegians rely too much on this fund
| to save themselves, rather than transitioning away from oil
| now.
| jalk wrote:
| How large is the Oil Fund these days (after Corona spending)
| 1 trillion USD or something like that - you'll be fine
| magicalhippo wrote:
| > How large is the Oil Fund these days
|
| They got a "live" counter here[1], so yeah around 1.3
| trillion USD give or take. Estimates for corona spending is
| around 80 billion USD[2].
|
| [1]: https://www.nbim.no/en/
|
| [2]: https://www.nettavisen.no/okonomi/regjeringen-advarer-
| oljefo...
| bellyfullofbac wrote:
| Geezus, must be nice to have that kind of rainy day fund.
| Grossly over-simplifed: "Shut down the economy? Oh well,
| here's 80 billion dollars to keep everyone fed and warm."
| eptcyka wrote:
| A country can't sustain itself on cash alone. Human
| capital and infrastructure is vital.
| ars wrote:
| For a few years. But divide that fund by the population
| and it suddenly doesn't seem as much.
|
| Human capital is far more valuable, but most of the
| industrial knowledge of Norway is in energy production.
| jonsen wrote:
| If the world remains able and willing to pay it back. It's
| mostly invested abroad.
| takk309 wrote:
| How much oil is needed to produce a single electric vehicle?
| What I am getting at is we will need oil extraction for a long
| time. While we can move away from burning it for heat, we still
| need it for the production of most plastics. This doesn't even
| begin to touch on oil's use in the extraction process of all
| the other metals used in car production.
|
| We also need oil for road building. I don't see that changing
| anytime either. After all, asphalt production produces far
| fewer greenhouse gasses than cement. Concrete roads have their
| place but the vast majority of road miles will be made with
| asphalt for the near future.
| arghwhat wrote:
| Asphalt is itself very energy inefficient, and finding a
| replacement is rather important. Quoting kurzgesagt, the
| impact if manufacturing an electric car is equal to just two
| meters of asphalt road.
| takk309 wrote:
| On top of that, asphalt is very easy to recycle and is
| likely the most recycled material on the planet by weight.
| My original point was that we will still need to extract
| some oil for a long time into the future.
| lm28469 wrote:
| Given that all the plastics and most synthetic fabrics are
| petrol derivatives I don't think it'll ever die.
|
| 90% of everything in your direct line of sight probably
| contain petrol derivatives. From wall paint to shampoo, your
| t-shirt, phone, chewing gums, toothpaste, rugs, shoes... We
| just can't sustain our modern lifestyle without it
| thatwasunusual wrote:
| > 20% of Norway's GDP comes from pumping oil out of the ground
| and selling it for others to burn.
|
| To be precise, it's 14%, down from 26% in 2008.[0]
|
| [0] https://e24.no/norsk-oekonomi/i/dOXzd1/norge-er-mindre-
| oljea...
| tdeck wrote:
| This is a major plot point in the excellent fictional series
| Occupied, which is worth a watch on Netflix.
| [deleted]
| belltaco wrote:
| Stopping it would be useless, it'd just increase production
| from oil wells of other countries. They could invest that money
| into accelerating green technology.
| kmonsen wrote:
| That's not useless though. It would drive the price up making
| it easier to scale up on renewables.
| bdamm wrote:
| Only if there was a large pact of countries doing so. But
| even that would be dubious, since OPEC and other groups
| would just increase production. Also there are many oil
| resources that can be tapped with a slight increase in the
| prices, so really Norway would just be handing production
| over to countries like Canada, where local governments
| would be only too eager to sell the more expensive product.
| mensetmanusman wrote:
| That is under the assumption oil revenues aren't
| efficiently spent on speeding the green transition.
| cecilpl2 wrote:
| To a first order effect, stopping production would decrease
| supply, increasing price, and therefore decreasing demand and
| therefore overall oil usage, shifting some energy to
| alternative sources.
|
| Of course second order effects might dwarf that, like the
| fact that increasing prices would incentivize oil extraction
| in currently unprofitable locations. That extraction may or
| may not be more carbon-intensive than Norway's (though
| probably more if it's currently unprofitable).
|
| It sounds punchy to say "Norway should stop extracting oil"
| as much as it does to say "It doesn't matter whether they do
| or not since someone else will", but the reality is much more
| complex than either of those simplistic zeroth-order
| approximations.
| Retric wrote:
| Infrastructure takes time to build. A short term price hike
| in oil costs isn't going to change how many cars Tesla can
| manufacture tomorrow. Near term you can build up
| infrastructure to extract more oil from the same well
| faster than you can build a new car factory.
|
| The only real change from such a policy is how quickly
| wells will run dry, but I hope we can abandon oil long
| before running out is a serious concern.
| mikewave wrote:
| Precisely. If oil prices get high enough, the Canadian oil
| sands will begin to be a profitable operation again, and
| will scale back up to take advantage. At this point, while
| we're still weaning off of oil - for probably the next 50
| years - we need the lowest carbon, least cannibalistic
| sources of it possible.
| WalterBright wrote:
| Gotta start somewhere. After all, Norway switching to all-
| electric cars also won't make a significant reduction in
| worldwide CO2.
|
| Sure, other wells will produce more. But at a higher price.
| Higher prices encourage use of greener alternatives.
| bellyfullofbac wrote:
| What a weird forecast, this is like saying "Bitcoin will hit
| $100k in 3 months." by looking at the price graph. Since people
| will still be allowed to buy such cars so far, I doubt 100% will
| ever be reached...
| oleganza wrote:
| Actually, Bitcoin is likely to hit $100K in about 3 months.
| findthewords wrote:
| In other words, the market is saturated?
| andrenth wrote:
| Does anyone have a pointer to studies on the effects of electric
| vehicles in the used car market?
|
| I ask because the lifespan of current batteries seems to be
| around 8 years (going by manufacturers' warranties), and the
| battery pack amounts to approximately 30% of the price of the
| car. So people buying an used electric car will likely face a
| large maintenance cost after a while.
| jdofaz wrote:
| There are a handful of independent shops that can repair a
| battery for much less than full replacement cost. I think that
| will get better as EVs become more common.
| andreer wrote:
| I don't think it's too different from an ICE car. Based on what
| I've seen in the used car market here in Norway it seems much
| the same.
|
| Applying the same logic, The lifespan of an internal combustion
| engine seems to be around 5 years (going by manufacturers
| warranties), and the cost is probably not too far off from 30%
| of the car there either.
|
| And having also owned an aging diesel powered car, I can
| promise you there were definitely increasing maintenance costs
| with that too!
| The_Beta wrote:
| Best I could find with a quick search. I think it's still too
| early for a proper study.
|
| https://insideevs.com/news/405885/tesla-model-s-battery-afte...
|
| https://electrek.co/2020/06/06/tesla-battery-degradation-rep...
|
| https://www.findmyelectric.com/blog/how-long-does-a-tesla-ba...
| Swenrekcah wrote:
| Unless they programmed it to go bad as soon as the warranty
| expires I wouldn't be so worried about it. The Tesla model S is
| about 8 years old now for the earliest models and I don't think
| I've heard about them going bad.
| jsight wrote:
| I think that would cause them to drop by ~70% over 8 years, at
| least for normal to high mileage examples. I'm not sure if this
| is actually any worse than what would be typical for an ICE
| vehicle, though?
| codazoda wrote:
| I've seen a stat that most cars only last 10 years in the US.
| If that's because we crash or destroy them than the problem is
| almost non-existent. I own a 25 year old truck but they aren't
| very common, so I assume that's just anecdotal. I'm also not
| sure if that stat included trucks. I can't find it to reference
| it.
| ajross wrote:
| That's off. A typical new EV gets ~250 miles of real world
| range on a full charge and has a battery with very similar
| chemistry[1] to what you have in your phone. So over a putative
| 200k mile lifetime, it's going to see about 800 cycles
| (2e5/250) of battery usage.
|
| 800 cycles is about what a typical mobile phone sees in two
| years, after which most are seeing some moderate degradation
| (70% of new condition is fairly typical) but are still quite
| usable. And in fact a car spends much more of its time being
| recharged well before reaching full discharge (where consumer
| electronics runs dead a lot), so it would be expected to do
| somewhat better.
|
| It's not really a problem, basically.
|
| [1] Though we're seeing an increasing number of vehicles
| delivered with LiFePO4 cells. This chemistry has somewhat lower
| energy density and higher internal resistance, but has the
| advantage of an estimaged _hundreds of thousands_ of cycles
| lifetime. Those will never wear out until long after the
| mechanical parts are dust.
| robotresearcher wrote:
| These new cells give the possibility of being recycled and
| rebuilt into a few cars in a row. Would be great for the
| single most expensive component of an electric car to be used
| over, maybe dropping performance/cost class as they go.
| magicalhippo wrote:
| Like changing a broken automatic transmission is a cheap thing.
|
| That happened to a friend of mine, who was quoted around 50k
| NOK (~6k USD) of a car he bought used for twice that.
| Fortunately for him, it turned out there was one week left of
| the 5-year "new car" warranty so he didn't have to pay after
| all, but that was sheer luck.
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