[HN Gopher] The new dot com bubble is online advertising (2019)
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The new dot com bubble is online advertising (2019)
        
       Author : 1vuio0pswjnm7
       Score  : 260 points
       Date   : 2021-10-02 00:18 UTC (22 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (thecorrespondent.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (thecorrespondent.com)
        
       | mlinksva wrote:
       | Not a fan of advertising (online or otherwise, wish online wasn't
       | exclusively...targeted) (tax it!) but bubble accusations seem
       | unfounded. It's possible to find negative or uncertain returns to
       | spend but that doesn't make a bubble.
       | 
       | Relatedly the first and third results for
       | https://hn.algolia.com/?q=bubble are
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=17060085 (2018 GDPR Will Pop
       | the Adtech Bubble; didn't happen) and
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10572863 (2015 The Adtech
       | Bubble; the end was not nigh).
        
       | cubano wrote:
       | Meet the new boss.
       | 
       | Same as the old boss.
        
       | fsckboy wrote:
       | this new dot com bubble, if it exists, is really a subdomain of
       | the .com tld, it would be the google.com bubble.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | so much previous discussion when this was fresher:
       | 
       | 1 year ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23101883
       | 
       | 2 years ago https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21465873
        
       | axegon_ wrote:
       | Annoyingly I feel like it's true. Personally I never had anything
       | strongly against online advertising - there are tons of website
       | and blogs where you can see that people have poured their hearts
       | and souls into their work and the only thing they get in return
       | are a few peanuts from ads. There's the case for trackers and
       | cookies and whatnot but let's be realistic-the analysis and
       | processing is done by a server in the dark corner of a
       | datacenter, not an evil mastermind going through every website
       | I've visited: no one is that interested in me or anyone else for
       | that matter. Frankly I'd be flattered if someone showed that much
       | interest into me but no... But at some point the over-saturation
       | and overpopulation of certain species will cause cataclysms and I
       | feel like we are close. While I stay away from all social
       | media(I'm sure it's a similar story there), the thing that
       | crossed my line was Google and more specifically Youtube. You
       | open up a video, at which point you are already forced through
       | two ads, one of which is unskippable, then you get to the
       | "sponsored message" then another two ads if the video is slightly
       | longer. If I wanted to watch TV, I'd watch TV. And this is what
       | ultimately pushed me over the edge: Brave browser ftw and the
       | hell with all that. And I see more and more people going that way
       | for similar purposes. It's a question of time before enough
       | people have had enough and ads become a financial burden to those
       | who advertise online.
        
         | kwanbix wrote:
         | I pay for google music, or whatever the name is today, and I
         | see no ads. Bandwidth, servers, the employees, etc. have a
         | cost, so it is only natural that companies make money somehow,
         | either through ads or by subscription.
         | 
         | EDIT: it is YouTube Premium.
        
           | axegon_ wrote:
           | Music is a different thing(I'm also a subscriber), I'm
           | talking videos specifically. I'm sorry but the fact that I
           | have to go through a minute of ads for every 4 minutes of
           | videos watched is absurd. The worst thing I've had to endure
           | was Antena 3 in Spain in terms of content-to-ads ratio. At
           | this point if we include sponsored messages in videos, I'm
           | willing to bet the ratio is worse on youtube.
        
             | kwanbix wrote:
             | I am talking about videos. You pay YouTube Premium and you
             | don't see ads.
        
           | rciorba wrote:
           | that deal is (was?) only available in few parts of the world,
           | sadly
        
       | heurisko wrote:
       | I have had the thought that there is something wrong, that I can
       | access nearly any song of my choice on YouTube, with the small
       | penalty of skipping an advert after 5 seconds.
       | 
       | Many of the adverts aren't even for products I'm interested in.
       | They're either get-rich-quick schemes, or repeat-ad-nauseum ads
       | for software like Grammerly, which I will never use.
       | 
       | If Google has some sort of complex picture about me, by invading
       | my privacy, then they're certainly not using it to sell me
       | anything I am interested in.
       | 
       | I guess if Google are funalling cash from advertisers to the
       | record companies, then it will continue. But I have to wonder
       | what would happen if advertisers actually look at how effective
       | their advertisements are.
       | 
       | I feel I'm getting a good deal out of this arrangement.
        
         | kubanczyk wrote:
         | > skipping an advert after 5 seconds
         | 
         | YT ads are not shown on Firefox with a plugin such as uBlock
         | Origin. Just in case you're one of today's lucky 10,000.
        
           | diarrhea wrote:
           | Among Firefox, uBlock Origin, AdGuard Home and buying (for a
           | couple dollars) ad-free versions of apps I use frequently,
           | the web is virtually entirely ad-free for me. It blows my
           | mind that it's different for most people.
           | 
           | Every time I use YouTube on Amazon FireTV, I lose interest in
           | the video content very fast. Just atrocious to sift through
           | the ads, popups etc.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | ksidn wrote:
         | >Grammerly
         | 
         | Well, you should look into it...
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | I think the typical commentator on HN is unaware of how they
         | think very differently from the typical American.
         | 
         | Advertising definitely works. I've seen it work among many
         | people in person. Even people who agree that ads are dumb, I've
         | seen decide to get some candy after seeing an ad for it on TV.
        
         | DeathArrow wrote:
         | I get an even better deal, I see no ads on YouTube because I
         | use uBlock Origin.
        
           | asddubs wrote:
           | and sponsorblock for blocking in-video ads
        
         | durnygbur wrote:
         | > choice on YouTube, with the small penalty of skipping an
         | advert after 5 seconds.
         | 
         | YouTube is now in the last stage, cashing out their popularity.
         | Now it's 20 seconds unskippable ad, then ad skippable after 5
         | seconds, then video interrupted with an another ad. I basically
         | download the video and watch it on my computer or shutdown the
         | browser tab with youtube.
        
           | busymom0 wrote:
           | If using iPhone, iOS 15 extensions let's you block those
           | video ads. If using android, use Firefox browser with both an
           | adblocker like uBlock and an addon to allow video playback in
           | background along with another addon for auto skipping the
           | "continue playing" Popup. Both have made my life so much
           | easier!
        
       | systemvoltage wrote:
       | I've always wanted to inquire the significance of advertising
       | from the standpoint of the business, and yet its failure to
       | please users. Advertising sucks from the standpoint of the user,
       | and some say that if you want to scale any online business from 0
       | customers to N, advertising is pivotal and word of mouth won't
       | do. Whether it comes in the flavor of give $10 to sign up a
       | Paypal account, banner ads, search engine ads and these days also
       | social ads (YT promotion, sleezy product reviews, IG celebrities)
       | - it's important. So how come we have not solved the problem of
       | user hostility in advertisement? Blendtec's "Will it blend?"
       | series blends entertainment and advertisement. Engineers go to
       | trade fairs and conferences _voluntarily_ to seek out new
       | suppliers /companies. People pay to go to Disneyland. Another
       | genius in advertising is products/services that self advertise
       | (Louis Vuitton). My gut feeling is that there is a deeper, more
       | fundamental trade-off between advertisement effectiveness, and
       | user hostility that always persists. Most of the time, we just
       | adandon further inquiry and call it off as "It is the way it is
       | because it damn well works".
        
         | pm90 wrote:
         | We haven't "solved" user hostility because the industry still
         | relies on user data collection and tracking on a massive scale
         | with default opt in rather than opt out. Consumers are spooked
         | by that and the industry has (by and large) failed to convince
         | them of the utility of targeted advertising.
         | 
         | It's the original sin of online ads that nobody really wants to
         | address. Because of that, we have a lot of rather shady players
         | in the industry making the problem even worse.
        
           | whimsicalism wrote:
           | I feel like there is a distinction between targeting ads
           | based on the profile you've created on their site (say,
           | Facebook) and targeting ads by tracking users all over the
           | internet.
        
             | pm90 wrote:
             | Almost every web property with a significant user base uses
             | "identity resolution" to personalize ads. Without
             | regulations forbidding organizations from doing this it's
             | not going to stop.
        
       | system2 wrote:
       | If it is a bubble, whom is it going to affect? Dotcom bubble was
       | the investor's money. What is even ad bubble supposed to do when
       | it pops?
        
         | Hendrikto wrote:
         | Also investor's money. If ad revenue suddenly tanked, so would
         | the stocks of Google, Facebook, etc.
        
           | AreYouElite wrote:
           | and it would tank anything financed by ad-revenue A lot of
           | things are financed by ads: entertainment... music..
           | sports...
        
       | rossdavidh wrote:
       | There are two different assertions that should be distinguished:
       | 
       | 1) most online advertising doesn't work
       | 
       | 2) the revenue from online advertising will soon decline, perhaps
       | precipitously
       | 
       | I believe (1), but not (2), hence it isn't a "bubble". If you
       | tell a CEO "hey, you're not going to be able to solve your
       | problem with advertising", then you are in effect telling them,
       | "there's no easy solution to your problem, you must do the much
       | harder work of making your goods or services better".
       | 
       | Not many CEO's will want to hear that. They will continue, I
       | think, to spend money on advertising, including online
       | advertising, not because it works well (it only occasionally
       | does), but because it's easier. It's like selling someone a diet
       | aid that says they can lose 50 pounds without having to work
       | hard. Regardless of whether it works or not, people want to
       | believe it does, so they will keep buying.
        
       | tflinton wrote:
       | I used to work for a B2B advertising agency, we did a campaign
       | for the largest teleco in the US targeted at C-level executives
       | to by their enterprise products. Our engagement team said
       | (privately) that they had spent 20k per click. And had no idea if
       | any of those targeted VERY expensive clicks resulted in leads let
       | alone sales.
        
         | tonmoy wrote:
         | But wouldn't a single purchase more than pay for the entire
         | campaign?
        
       | amusedcyclist wrote:
       | I don't think you can build a new consumer facing business
       | without advertising on facebook and google. A lot of the moden
       | consumer internet was built by advertising on those platforms and
       | diverting dollars away from brick and mortar. Some well known
       | examples include Airbnb and all the kardashian family brands.
       | Advertising metrics might be hard to measure for large well known
       | companies, but for startups/ solo entrepreneurs the numbers tend
       | to be much clearer.
        
         | rossjudson wrote:
         | Ultra-clear for small businesses, at times. I was once a
         | partner in a shop, and there was that time that we had a
         | account problem/billing error on the credit card, and all the
         | advertising stopped for the better part of a month. Worst month
         | ever.
         | 
         | The whole article reads like something the author wishes was
         | true, but that's predicated on the notion that everyone buying
         | advertising is just stupid.
        
         | Qi_ wrote:
         | Digital advertising is much more accessible for the small fish
         | too. If a business has a Facebook presence, $10/day can get a
         | campaign going, and scaling it up is trivial.
        
       | DeathArrow wrote:
       | One thing I don't get: if in the entire industry $273bn were
       | spent on ads in a year, how come that one company which derives
       | most of its revenue from ads, such as Alphabet has a market cap
       | several times larger?
        
         | nlitened wrote:
         | Market cap assumes that the company captures revenue over
         | multiple years of its future existence. Therefore it could
         | easily be more than one year ad spending, especially if it is
         | assumed that year over year the spending would grow, and the
         | company would continue to successfully exist over decades.
        
         | Hermel wrote:
         | Earning 273 billion per year is much more valuable than owning
         | 273 billion.
        
         | KoftaBob wrote:
         | Because market cap isn't based on how much a company makes in
         | one year.
        
       | bradwood wrote:
       | I thought it was DeFi, Crypto and Web3...
        
       | rsync wrote:
       | It's an idea that just won't die ...
       | 
       | If we concatenate enough garbage: (subprime loans, training
       | inputs, consumer information)
       | 
       | then the result: (MBS tranches, AI, targeted ads) is _somehow not
       | garbage_.
       | 
       | This appears to be a wonderful model for separating gullible
       | investors from their money so I suspect we'll keep seeing new
       | incarnations of it ...
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | > This appears to be a wonderful model for separating gullible
         | investors from their money so I suspect
         | 
         | The original model, selective investment funds with management
         | fees, seems to be doing quite well a century on.
        
         | glenstein wrote:
         | I think you are right, but the process you describe is so
         | similar to the way we actually create value. Transforming or
         | changing something from less into more. Normally we might call
         | it work, or a patent.
         | 
         | Making garbage can look similar to doing work and making
         | something of value in the right circumstances.
        
           | Dylan16807 wrote:
           | > Transforming or changing something from less into more.
           | 
           | "Less" rarely means garbage, and usually it takes more work
           | than acquiring more more more.
        
       | sb057 wrote:
       | In 2020, newspaper, radio, and magazine ad spending was $85
       | billion compared to all online ad spending (which is far more
       | targeted and thus more valuable) at around $500 billion.
       | Television advertising was around $193 billion. Unless we're in a
       | generalized advertising bubble, I'd say online advertising is
       | still in healthy territory
       | 
       | https://www.marketingcharts.com/advertising-trends/spending-...
        
         | 3np wrote:
         | Note that these are forecasted metrics specifically for the
         | USA.
         | 
         | I wouldnt be surprised if they underestimate online ad spending
         | - there may be a lot of $ going through channels and companies
         | that are not included.
         | 
         | It's not like they have insight into revenue of all ad
         | companies even within the US, right?
         | 
         | How about sponsored YouTube/Instagram/TikTok/blogspam for
         | example?
        
       | slater wrote:
       | 6 November 2019
        
         | klyrs wrote:
         | Wild. From the title I was guessing 2008.
        
       | tofukid wrote:
       | _What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital
       | advertising?_
       | 
       | The effectiveness of online ads is easily measurable: Return on
       | ad spend (ROAS) = (revenue from ad referrals) - (money spent on
       | ads)
        
         | cratermoon wrote:
         | > revenue from ad referrals
         | 
         | And exactly how do you get accurate figures for that?
        
           | tofukid wrote:
           | It's simple. You use a URL with the campaign id, and store
           | that when the customer clicks through, then when a sale is
           | made you count that towards the campaign. In offline
           | advertising people would achieve this using campaign-specific
           | phone numbers or discount code given in the ad.
           | 
           | Online advertising math is not rocket science. If ROAS is
           | positive you continue the campaign, if not you abandon it or
           | try other methods.
        
             | fieldcny wrote:
             | Maybe if your business is simple and purchase cycle fast.
             | 
             | For the majority of companies that's not the case.
             | 
             | There are other confounding factors, like the margin
             | attached to that revenue.
             | 
             | Sometimes understanding the actual profitability of a sale
             | can take years.
             | 
             | As others have said for big brands it can be incredibly
             | hard to do real attribution.
        
             | cratermoon wrote:
             | Direct conversion to sale via clickthroughs are an almost
             | invisibly small part of online ads . No advertiser uses
             | only that metric for determining ROAS.
        
               | tofukid wrote:
               | Which metrics are you referring to?
               | 
               | I can't speak for ad agencies, but every company I've
               | worked with to do advertising measured ROAS using
               | customer attribution (which ad campaign brought which
               | customer, and how much did that customer spend).
        
               | cratermoon wrote:
               | > which ad campaign brought which customer
               | 
               | And how do they determine that?
        
             | klvino wrote:
             | Guess we'll skip branding and awareness campaigns, ignore
             | all post-view purchases, not use cross-device or cross-
             | channel attribution, and not look at attribution of offline
             | conversion/visitation activity.
             | 
             | If the only thing you do is Search and Email Blasts, the
             | query string on your URL might work okay.
        
               | namanyayg wrote:
               | The query string method will not provide stats for the
               | above point; but the newer methods e.g. using the FB
               | pixel that tracks users based on the user's email/userid
               | you create can accomplish much of that (only offline
               | conversions are difficult, but there are still modern
               | ways to match an offline customer with their past ad
               | exposure e.g. if you get their email/phone on
               | purchase...)
        
             | erostrate wrote:
             | TFA spends a long time belaboring the point that this is
             | not correct. Because many people who click on your URL
             | would have bought the item anyway.
        
           | Qi_ wrote:
           | Facebook for example has a "tracking pixel" script that can
           | be included in your website to get detailed info about
           | conversions from Facebook ads.
        
             | fieldcny wrote:
             | If it were really this easy people would be doing it, the
             | world really is a complex place.
        
         | newshorts wrote:
         | Exactly what the marketers thought.
         | 
         | The point I took from the article is that you have to factor in
         | what you would have gotten for free.
        
           | sangnoir wrote:
           | You can stop advertising for a while and compare the outcome.
           | Or take 2 similar markets and only advertise in one of them.
           | Online tracking enables fine-grained analytics, there's
           | little left to guessing - especially for small or medium
           | businesses who do not (yet) have high brand familiarity.
        
       | jokoon wrote:
       | I feel like advertising was always a scam.
       | 
       | I don't think it really helps the small entities reach an
       | audience, and it only allows the largest companies to remind
       | everyone they are the biggest.
       | 
       | I'm not sure there are thorough studies that show advertising
       | increase sales.
        
         | paulryanrogers wrote:
         | Word of mouth is usually the most trustworthy. Yet people need
         | to learn of alternatives from somewhere. Perhaps if those
         | serving ads were more liable, much like friends risking their
         | reputation to recommend something, the negatives of ads could
         | be better mitigated.
        
           | WhisperingShiba wrote:
           | Word of mouth is king. I've only seen 2 ads in the last year
           | that were even relevant, and only 1 of 2 of them turned into
           | a sales conversion. For the other product, I went to a
           | competitor.
        
       | zbuf wrote:
       | The article explains why eBay shouldn't advertise against the
       | term "eBay", all very logical.
       | 
       | ... Until a competitor starts advertising against the the term
       | "eBay".
       | 
       | At which point, online advertising becomes protection money.
        
         | allendoerfer wrote:
         | Click-through rates will be very low. In most countries you
         | cannot impersonate another company, so they cannot call
         | themselves ,,eBay" in the ad copy.
        
           | zbuf wrote:
           | They may not be able to call themselves by the competitor's
           | name, but what about the "alternative to <company>" that we
           | see a lot.
           | 
           | Furthermore, Google will "dynamically" assemble an advert
           | based on the current search to 'optimise' click-though (and
           | they recently sent a mail out making it clear this will be
           | the only type of text ad going forward)
           | 
           | They think they're optimising "click through" rate.
           | 
           | But what they're really doing is using heuristics to find the
           | advert that's most likely to be confused with the top search
           | result.
           | 
           | Either way, the ad platform wins.
           | 
           | And companies pay their protection money.
        
           | gingerlime wrote:
           | Did anything change there? I remember Basecamp's Jason Fried
           | complaining about it[0] but I wasn't aware of any policy
           | changes that prevent someone from bidding on their
           | competitor's names and essentially placing their brand ahead
           | of yours when searching for your brand name...
           | 
           | [0] https://fortune.com/2019/09/04/google-trolled-search-ads/
        
             | WoahNoun wrote:
             | If your brand is a registered trademark, you can have
             | google stop your competitors from referencing it in search
             | ad copy.
             | 
             | https://support.google.com/adspolicy/answer/6118?hl=en
        
               | youngtaff wrote:
               | Bit that's only in copy...
               | 
               | You can't stop them using it for targeting, and that's
               | how part of the ad extortion market works
               | 
               | - someone advertises against you brand as a keyword so
               | now you have to advertise against it too... Google wins
               | in revenue terms
               | 
               | - it's also the source of scams e.g. people advertising
               | against searches for free public services on say gov.uk,
               | but charging for the same thing
        
         | somedude895 wrote:
         | This is the strongest antitrust case against Google in my
         | opinion. They are the monopoly search engine. Tons of people
         | google a website name instead of typing in the URL. Tons of
         | people don't know the ads are actually ads and Google is making
         | it harder to tell them apart from the every year[0]. It's
         | basically like the mafia telling you to fork over money or else
         | they put up your competitors' billboards in front of your
         | store. Not a very scary mafia, but still.
         | 
         | [0] https://images.app.goo.gl/WjafWzujgjHT32Y17
        
           | BeFlatXIII wrote:
           | This is also an issue in Apple's app store.
        
         | smilekzs wrote:
         | A relatively friendly jab: at one point if you search "emacs"
         | you could see an ad along the lines of (forgot the exact
         | wording):
         | 
         | escape meta alt ctrl shift AAARGGHHHH.... try VIM.
        
       | avalys wrote:
       | I remember reading this article back in 2019 when it was
       | originally written. Unclear why it is being dusted off now when
       | it is still just as wrong as it was then.
       | 
       | Yes, it is probably hard for a large, well-known brand like eBay
       | or Procter & Gamble or Coca-Cola to measure their return from
       | online advertising. If Coca-Cola stopped all advertising for 1
       | week, would anything really change? Probably not. And it's not as
       | if anyone is clicking Google search ads for Coca-Cola and
       | ordering a 6-pack right there. This is the same problem that
       | these companies have with TV advertising.
       | 
       | But anyone who has ever run a small, consumer-focused startup
       | with low brand recognition can very easily measure their return
       | on ad spend, and will spend a lot of time doing this. You can
       | easily tell which specific ad referred someone to your website,
       | and how much money they spent once they got there.
       | 
       | If they're not convinced by this data, at some point most
       | startups will find the opportunity to simply turn off all
       | advertising for a week for one reason or another. And can usually
       | see the drop in revenue immediately.
       | 
       | I was involved in a consumer hardware startup where our COO
       | shared granular ROAS numbers in our all-hands every week for
       | Google, Facebook, TV advertising across multiple networks, etc.
       | They regularly A/B tested different advertisements and messages
       | across different media and directly optimized for revenue. It was
       | clear beyond a doubt that this advertising worked. The company
       | would not have been viable without it.
       | 
       | The fact that this proof is easily and readily available from
       | small, lesser-known companies is part of why large companies
       | continue to spend money on advertising despite the benefits being
       | much harder to measure.
        
         | tonyedgecombe wrote:
         | I have a suspicion that the great majority of businesses have
         | no idea whether their advertising is effective or not. Of
         | course this is encouraged by all the dark patterns you see in
         | the Adwords control panel.
        
         | theyx wrote:
         | Not providing proof and just anecdotal experiences won't do
         | your argument any good. Especially because that's exactly how
         | Ad companies/agencies got here in the first place, by saying it
         | works without clear, verifiable ways to prove it: "yeah, it
         | works, trust us, but we won't let you see the data"
        
         | AussieWog93 wrote:
         | This rings true completely from my experience.
         | 
         | I run an eBay store that has pretty decent revenues but no
         | brand recognition, and we make pretty heavy use of their
         | Promoted Listings function.
         | 
         | We've generally found for competitive items that sacrificing 5%
         | to ad spend allows us to increase the price of the item by 20%
         | without experiencing any reduction in sales. There is no way to
         | fake that.
         | 
         | For my other business, though, (Low-cost USB Oscilloscopes) I
         | found Google, Facebook and Amazon ads to be completely useless.
         | Even then, though, it didn't cost a lot of money or take a
         | whole lot of time to get a definitive answer and cancel the
         | campaign.
        
           | tonyedgecombe wrote:
           | I think the audience makes a huge difference. I mainly sell
           | to a technical audience and Adwords stopped being effective
           | for me years ago.
        
         | firecall wrote:
         | I've worked with and for brands with multi million dollar
         | budgets.
         | 
         | My general advice, which I borrwed from somewhere...
         | 
         | Advertising is like an Aircraft. You power up, use a lot
         | fuel(budget) and you get airborn!
         | 
         | Then you cut the engines (reduce budget) and you start gliding
         | and you think, well OK, everthing seems fine! I dont need to
         | keep burning fuel!
         | 
         | And then all of sudden you either smash into the ground or you
         | have to use that rapid fuel burn all over again to get back on
         | top!
         | 
         | YMMV!
         | 
         | On the flip side, I've cut Google Ad spend for a large tourism
         | brand and traffic to the website continued to grow even 24
         | months later.
         | 
         | Traffic is one metric of course....
         | 
         | Marketing and Advertising are complicated and hard! It requires
         | nerves of steal and it really helps when it's someone else's
         | budget! :-)
        
         | tcmart14 wrote:
         | I think with a company like Coca-cola, it is a little bit of a
         | different approach. Taking Coca-cola as the example. My money
         | is their ads are not placed there to get you to buy a 6-pack
         | online. It is so when you see it, you go, 'damn a coke actually
         | sounds really good right now.' And then you proceed to walk tot
         | he fridge for one or next time your out and about buy one.
         | However I would say that a product such as coke is a specific
         | case. Some ads are for targeting people to go to their online
         | store, then I am sure ones like coke exist to put the idea in
         | your mind next time you stop for gas.
        
           | pm90 wrote:
           | For commodity products, It's all about creating a
           | subconscious association so eg when you're at the store you
           | choose coke because you're heard/seen it so many times it
           | seems "familiar".
        
         | MarkMc wrote:
         | > And it's not as if anyone is clicking Google search ads for
         | Coca-Cola and ordering a 6-pack right there. This is the same
         | problem that these companies have with TV advertising.
         | 
         | Supermarkets already have a loyalty card program where you
         | receive a small discount and in return you agree to receive
         | targeted advertising based on your purchases.
         | 
         | Why don't these loyalty programs add a clause saying that they
         | may also share your personal information with Google? That
         | would mean Coca-Cola or Proctor and Gamble could see how much
         | they spent on advertising to a particular person, and how much
         | that person spent in buying the company's products.
        
           | the-dude wrote:
           | Just some anecdata : AFAIK this is not allowed in The
           | Netherlands. Retailers are not allowed to mine purchasing
           | data on an individual level.
        
         | satellite2 wrote:
         | Even for seemingly obvious things this article is wrong.
         | 
         | Maybe in 2009, when the market was playing ball, was it okay
         | not to buy your own brand (eBay) as a keyword, as this is an
         | audience that already want to go to your site. Now all your
         | competitors are buying your brand and you'll end up in fourth
         | or fifth position with your own audience if you don't buy it.
         | 
         | And while most will still scroll it through, you will end up
         | losing a small but consistent share of clicks to competitors
         | time to time. And if they manage to make their service slightly
         | more sticky than yours, you'll end up losing small market
         | shares over time.
        
         | ZhangSWEFAANG wrote:
         | What's the concept called when something persists even as it
         | scales?
        
         | GeneralMayhem wrote:
         | To be fair, the point of the article is that ROAS is not a very
         | good metric, and while most of the article is wrong in that it
         | effectively calls _all_ advertising worthless as a result, it
         | 's not wrong about that one methodological point. What matters
         | is _incremental_ ROAS - not the conversions following exposure,
         | but rather the conversions that would not have happened but for
         | the exposure. For small companies that have no existing
         | awareness, they 're close to the same thing. But like you said,
         | it is very hard to measure for the large brand advertisers that
         | are very well-penetrated.
         | 
         | If Coke switched off their advertising they would eventually
         | lose market share, but it would take more than one Christmas of
         | not seeing the polar bears. For companies in their position,
         | advertising is about _maintaining_ dominance. Spending on a
         | Superbowl ad is a way for them to say  "we're the best, we know
         | it, and you know it, and when you want a drink, you're going to
         | buy Coke, not RC Cola". It takes a long, long time for that
         | indoctrination to wear off, so there's no way to experiment on
         | it - there's no untouched part of the market that's never seen
         | a Coke ad against which you can do an A/B test.
        
           | midasuni wrote:
           | Whenever I buy woodstain I buy ronseals quick drying
           | woodstain because it does exactly what it says on the tin.
           | This is because I watched tv in the 90s as a teenager and it
           | was ingrained.
           | 
           | The benefits of brainwashing can pay dividend over a
           | lifetime.
        
             | csunbird wrote:
             | Your point actually proves that, advertising gets the
             | customer through the door, but, your product needs to be
             | actually decent to keep the customer.You saw the
             | advertisement, you bought the product and it worked as
             | described, and continued to work in that way in the future.
             | 
             | The product is successful not because of advertising,
             | because it is actually good. I find it weird that, most
             | people spend huge on advertising, but sometimes neglect the
             | product.
        
               | PKop wrote:
               | A lot of products are good though...So your point isn't
               | very convincing that products aren't successful because
               | of advertising given the zero sum game of hooking a
               | customer for life that OP describes.
        
               | midasuni wrote:
               | I have no idea. It's rare I stain wood, I have never
               | compared any other stain, I don't know if it's any good
               | or not, or indeed the price. They may charge twice as
               | much as bobs woodstain but it's not worth me thinking
               | about.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | What you're describing is pretty typical though. You buy
               | a product either because of advertising, because it
               | "looked" like a good choice in the store for whatever
               | reason, it was recommended on Wirecutter, the Home Depot
               | worker or a contractor pointed you towards it, etc. And
               | it seems to do the job and, for the amount you spend on
               | that item annually, it's not really worth doing your own
               | comparison which you probably aren't in a position to do
               | scientifically anyway.
        
           | jasode wrote:
           | _> What matters is incremental ROAS - not the conversions
           | following exposure, but rather the conversions that would not
           | have happened but for the exposure. [...] there's no
           | untouched part of the market that's never seen a Coke ad
           | against which you can do an A/B test. _
           | 
           | Sophisticated advertisers like Coca-Cola are aware of the
           | concept about _incremental ROAS_. They can 't do the exact
           | A/B test scenario of isolated consumers you're talking about
           | but decades ago, they did do A/B tests in different tv
           | markets where one city had more ads than another and the city
           | with more ads had higher sales. (What the industry jargon
           | calls _" lift"_ from advertising exposure.)
           | 
           | So even brands that are _already very well-known by most of
           | the public_ still constantly do A /B tests to measure
           | _incremental_ conversions in all media including digital,
           | magazines, sports sponsorships, etc. Back in the late 1990s,
           | many advertisers noticed that running banner ads on Yahoo
           | didn 't work which contributed to their stock price crashing.
           | Recently, a lot of advertisers (e.g. Proctor & Gamble) quit
           | spending ad dollars on 2nd and 3rd-tier ad exchanges because
           | their A/B measurements showed they were a waste of money.
           | (The "1st-tier" ad exchange examples would be Google &
           | Facebook.)
        
             | somedude895 wrote:
             | > Recently, a lot of advertisers (e.g. Proctor & Gamble)
             | quit spending ad dollars on 2nd and 3rd-tier ad exchanges
             | because their A/B measurements showed they were a waste of
             | money.
             | 
             | Can you share a link? I work in digital marketing and would
             | be super interested in more info on this.
        
           | sanketsarang wrote:
           | You make a good point. But there is one more reason for
           | advertising than just conversions. If Coca Cola were to stop
           | advertising, it would free up substantial ad space allowing
           | for their competition to advertise cheap. These large brands
           | don't just advertise for branding/conversions. They plan
           | their spend budget so as to actually influence the bid rate.
           | This makes it harder for newer brands to compete and get any
           | viable ad exposure at affordable prices.
        
           | fdwrt wrote:
           | That's why these companies invest so much in advertising.
           | Market share is gained or lost in an instant.
           | 
           | If Coke switched off their advertising they would have gained
           | this market share in recent years?
           | 
           | https://www.statista.com/statistics/225464/market-share-
           | of-l...
        
             | GhettoComputers wrote:
             | Is there a control to prove it was advertising? They bought
             | a lot of brands and there isn't evidence that online
             | marketing was the reason.
        
           | shostack wrote:
           | TY. Incrementality is king. Measuring that as a marketer and
           | advertiser is getting more challenging for a variety of
           | reasons. The future, primarily for large brands, but
           | increasingly accessible for smaller and smaller companies is
           | in statistical analysis with properly controlled experiments.
           | 
           | It is the only path I've seen that can account for all the
           | noise in the measurement ecosystem. And even then it is far
           | from easy to do "right."
        
             | otabdeveloper4 wrote:
             | > The future ... is in statistical analysis with properly
             | controlled experiments.
             | 
             | The future? No, statistical analysis was always at the core
             | of advertising, from the moment statistics was invented.
             | 
             | It's only recently in the last few years that people forgot
             | this, and only because techies and programmers without
             | statistics knowledge successfully "disrupted" the
             | advertising industry.
             | 
             | But internet advertising sucks balls compared to classical
             | advertising forms, especially from the point of view of ROI
             | to the client.
             | 
             | So we will eventually "undisrupt" this mess and make
             | internet advertising more like the classical forms.
             | 
             | t. working in ad tech for the last 17 years.
        
               | shostack wrote:
               | Fair point about statistical analysis. My comment was
               | more that the tools and data to provide that visibility
               | are starting to trickle down to smaller companies, sort
               | of like how GA did it for web analytics. For better or
               | worse.
               | 
               | Disagree on traditional vs digital though. It is totally
               | circumstantial which performs better.
        
           | namanyayg wrote:
           | The point you're talking about ROAS/incremental ROAS is quite
           | moot actually. Every online ad tracks the user from the
           | moment they click the ad to whatever events they make (e.g.
           | add to cart, purchase, etc). So the measured ROAS is exactly
           | for the users who'd come via the ad and not any others.
           | 
           | I don't want to be offending but this is honestly a very
           | basic point, of course one would only measure the Return On
           | Ad Spend from the user's acquired by said ad and not any
           | others... Advertisers are familiar with all such basic
           | statistics and Google/FB ads give you very easy tools to
           | track any person who clicks on an ad throughout their entire
           | journey.
           | 
           | Edit: I was mistaken as described in the comments below
        
             | GeneralMayhem wrote:
             | Yes, obviously ROAS is only computed over the people who
             | saw the ad. That's not in question. The point is that
             | knowing how many people saw the ad and then bought the
             | product doesn't actually tell you how effective the ad was
             | at improving your business.
             | 
             | Imagine a product, let's call it Oxygen, that every single
             | person buys $10 worth of every month. It has 100% market
             | penetration.
             | 
             | One day, Oxygen Corp decides to take out a $1M ad buy. They
             | reach 1 million people, all of whom then go on to buy $10
             | of Oxygen, as measured by cross-site conversion tracking.
             | $1M ad buy to move $10M of product - that's a whopping 10.0
             | ROAS. Must be the most effective ad campaign ever run,
             | right?
        
               | namanyayg wrote:
               | I see what you mean and stand corrected; I wasn't
               | assuming the case where the product sells without
               | advertising at all.
               | 
               | From a gut feeling I can say that the customer came from
               | some result of previous advertising (as we're talking
               | about products like sodas not life-essentials like
               | oxygen), but I guess there's no way to know since those
               | previous ads being tv/print ads were not tracked.
               | 
               | If we suddenly stopped all other forms of advertising and
               | only used online ads, in 10-20 years each customer can be
               | tracked exactly to what ad created the first impression
               | about the brand and thus be more accurate (still
               | excepting marketing like word of mouth though)
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | You can run that same study with a control group, and
               | sophisticated advertisers do. Show some of the users ads
               | for your product, and other users ads for something
               | unrelated, and compare their purchases of your product.
        
             | auggierose wrote:
             | You are not understanding the point. You cannot actually
             | measure incremental ROAS with basic statistics and easy
             | Google/FB tools, because you would need to know how much
             | they would have spent WITHOUT being exposed to the ads.
        
               | disgruntledphd2 wrote:
               | You can run lift tests on Facebook which measure exactly
               | that.
               | 
               | You can't measure it across multiple advertising
               | platforms very effectively though.
        
               | auggierose wrote:
               | I don't know what lift tests are. It should be easy
               | enough to devise a tool for measuring incremental ROAS
               | under the following assumptions: a) all purchases happen
               | online; b) I have a complete history of ad impressions
               | and ad clicks for each user who made a purchase
               | 
               | As you said yourself, b) breaks down for multiple
               | platforms. It also breaks down if users have disabled
               | tracking.
        
               | disgruntledphd2 wrote:
               | Lift tests are these things:
               | https://www.facebook.com/business/m/one-
               | sheeters/conversion-...
               | 
               | They are essentially what one needs to measure
               | incremental ROAS of one's advertising.
               | 
               | Now, there are obvious caveats (online, tracking etc) but
               | they're much much better than what's available for other
               | platforms.
        
               | jefftk wrote:
               | _> It also breaks down if users have disabled tracking._
               | 
               | Almost all users who disable tracking also block ads, so
               | you are still correctly measuring the effect of your ad
               | spend.
        
               | namanyayg wrote:
               | Well, if we are talking about a recently formed company
               | who (1) doesn't do any offline advertisment and (2) only
               | does fully tracked online ads, you can calculate ROAS
               | fully right? (The only exception would be word of mouth
               | sales)
        
               | auggierose wrote:
               | It's a big exception; otherwise you are just assuming
               | that the only way people can get to your product is
               | through ads. But this is equivalent to assuming
               | "incremental ROAS = ROAS". So you propose to solve the
               | problem by ignoring it. ;-)
               | 
               | PS: Of course that works if the difference is indeed
               | small enough in your case so that it CAN be ignored.
        
           | 2muchcoffeeman wrote:
           | I assume there must be some effect in getting new drinkers.
           | 
           | I've tried lots of colas. I'm never buying a Pepsi if there
           | is Coke. I will always buy soft drinks in this order: Cherry
           | Coke, Cherry Dr Pepper, Dr Pepper, Coke, maybe I'll just have
           | water. At this point no amount of advertising will change my
           | mind.
        
             | InitialLastName wrote:
             | The advertising doesn't simply need to affect your personal
             | preferences to affect your buying habits. If you were
             | buying a few different packs of soda for a group of people
             | (e.g. for a party), how much cheaper would the case of
             | Pepsi need to be than a case of Coke for you to buy it
             | instead? Could that be affected by advertising that made
             | you feel like, regardless of your personal affinity for
             | Coke, Pepsi is the acceptable default choice?
             | 
             | Imagine further that this isn't a product category that you
             | feel quite so strongly about (most people don't have a
             | 4-deep ordered list of brand preferences for common product
             | categories). If you were making a quick choice between
             | Sprite and 7-up (again, for a party), are you sure that
             | advertising couldn't possibly influence which of the brands
             | is most accessible to your brain?
        
             | avalys wrote:
             | This is a common anti-pattern when smart people start
             | thinking about (brand) advertising.
             | 
             | "I have such strongly held opinions about my favorite soda!
             | No amount of advertising will change my mind. I am immune
             | to advertising!"
             | 
             | And then they go to the grocery store, and remember their
             | girlfriend told them to pick up some fabric softener, which
             | they know nothing about. So they look on the shelf and they
             | think "Ok, Downy, I've heard of that one. It's probably
             | fine." And away they go.
             | 
             | And the next time they need fabric softener, they reach for
             | it again, because it worked fine last time, and what's the
             | point in spending any more time thinking about fabric
             | softener?
             | 
             | This is what brand awareness advertising is meant for. It's
             | meant to change your weakly held preferences, not your
             | strongly held ones.
        
               | 2muchcoffeeman wrote:
               | This is precisely my point about getting new buyers but
               | couldn't think of the terms. There must be some clear up
               | shot to spending so much on advertising.
        
           | oakfr wrote:
           | Incremental ROAS is the right metric in theory, but very hard
           | (or impossible) to measure in practice, in particular for the
           | small businesses with smaller ad traffic. Hence the industry
           | falls back on measurable proxies such as ROAS.
        
           | ashtonkem wrote:
           | It also doesn't mean that the advertising is money wasted.
           | Coke spends that money to _remain_ the go to brand, and
           | surely values being the cultural default very highly. Saying
           | "Coke would still sell without ads" really misses the point
           | for why Coke advertises.
           | 
           | It reminds of car ads. Apparently (correct me if I'm wrong),
           | but OEM ads aren't about converting new customers, but
           | they're about trying to convert recent buyers into lifetime
           | buyers. It's to build in the consumer the attitude of "we're
           | a Ford household", not to convince a Chevy driver to buy Ford
           | for the first time.
        
             | GeneralMayhem wrote:
             | I don't disagree with you. My point wasn't that Coke-style
             | brand advertising was worthless, just that it's extremely
             | difficult to measure without much longer experiments -
             | specifically because it's been so successful.
        
               | popcube wrote:
               | I remember an experiment about coparing cola and psi,
               | they found advertisement of cola was so successful that
               | people saw a cola bottle will let them feel it more
               | delicious. I assume they want to keep this advantage in
               | internet era
        
               | GhettoComputers wrote:
               | Wouldn't it be better just to have it as product
               | placement rather than advertising? Warren Buffet makes it
               | look great, 5 cans a day. With his longevity and
               | investments he's great for them.
        
               | GeneralMayhem wrote:
               | Product placement is a subset of advertising, not a
               | different thing.
        
             | a4isms wrote:
             | The automobile analogy brings up another benefit of
             | advertising. Items that are sold as socioeconomic status
             | proxies don't work unless everybody knows the brand.
             | 
             | It's not just that Volvo wants me to think I drive a safe
             | wagon that is a sensible choice for middle-class, educated
             | people who watch public television.
             | 
             | I want my neighbours to think these things about me even
             | though they drive Ford and GM. That advertising assures me
             | I'll get both a car and a cachet.
             | 
             | If Volvo had a way of only selling to people who want Volvo
             | cars for the utility, but few others would have heard of
             | the brand, it would have less value.
        
         | throwawaylift wrote:
         | The first thing one has to face when considering such
         | experiments is that they fundamentally have an inherent cost.
         | Because in order to get that measurement accurate, quite a lot
         | of your ad impressions have to be withheld. This is a cost, a
         | cost of the lost opportunity. (provided that the actual impact
         | of the ad campaign is positive, that is).
         | 
         | So, as an advertiser, you end up coming up with some meta-
         | strategy: when to perform those experiments and when to forgo
         | them and rely on your educated guess.
         | 
         | Google, Facebook and alike developed support for performing
         | such experiments throughout the last decade. But this meta-
         | strategy kind of judgment is firmly in the department of
         | advertisers.
         | 
         | Certainly not a new dot com bubble as the title suggests, and
         | the article even mentions Randall Lewis, so I guess it's just
         | the style of journalism these days...
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | > You can easily tell which specific ad referred someone to
         | your website, and how much money they spent once they got
         | there.
         | 
         | This is how Google and other advertising companies leak data.
         | 
         | If I target an ad about Y to a group X, then I know that
         | someone who clicked it is in X. For any Y.
        
       | treebot wrote:
       | Tangentially related, I think political advertising actually does
       | work. Not just ads ran by candidates, but all the different memes
       | and infographics and whatnot. At least in America. Most Americans
       | are sort of middle of the road, but in recent years, the right
       | has gotten very good at drawing people in through media. I know
       | many people who are now all wrapped up in all sorts of right wing
       | conspiracies and viewpoints that they were not wrapped up in
       | before, that if it wasn't for seeing it on Facebook, Twitter or
       | Reddit, they never would have believed this stuff or even thought
       | about it.
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | Is that advertising? And would it mean that they would vote for
         | a particular candidate?
         | 
         | The typical consensus I have seen among political operatives is
         | that TV ads very clearly move the needle, whereas online ads
         | don't seem to.
        
       | tsavo wrote:
       | Oh wow, this is an older article. Read it before, it was much
       | discussed and here we are 2 years later.
       | 
       | Market effects from the pandemic have reinforced the reliance on
       | online advertising (more hours spent online by individuals
       | working remote, growth of streaming services).
        
       | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
       | If I had had a needle that would pop the dot com bubble, I'd
       | hesitate before using it. Maybe there are cool things that were
       | brewing and they just need a bit more time to incubate before we
       | can benefit from them.
       | 
       | If I had a needle that would pop this bubble, I'd use it
       | immediately. Advertising is all about making people do things
       | that, when left to their own devices, they don't want to go.
       | Whatever survives this bubble may need to be hunted down and
       | exterminated.
        
         | JacobJans wrote:
         | That is actually the definition of bad, inneffective
         | advertising. Good advertising comes from a deep understanding
         | of what people want to do, and then presents them with an
         | opportunity to do just that. This is literally why Google is so
         | valuable. Their ad business is largely based on understanding
         | "intent." As any decent advertiser knows, you can't create
         | intent, but you can harness it.
        
       | IronWolve wrote:
       | No tv, adblock, ad skip, filter ads in email.
       | 
       | But then I watch youtube of tech hardware, and want the new
       | shiny.
       | 
       | Oh look, sponsored video...
        
         | Nextgrid wrote:
         | Oh look, SponsorBlock: https://sponsor.ajay.app
        
       | groundpepper wrote:
       | Past discussions:
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21465873
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23101883
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Thanks! Expanded a bit:
         | 
         |  _The new dot com bubble is here: it's called online
         | advertising (2019)_ -
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23101883 - May 2020 (152
         | comments)
         | 
         |  _The new dot com bubble is here: it's called online
         | advertising_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21585364 -
         | Nov 2019 (24 comments)
         | 
         |  _What do we really know about the effectiveness of digital
         | advertising?_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21465873 -
         | Nov 2019 (358 comments)
        
       | ZhangSWEFAANG wrote:
       | "Larry Page and Eric Schmidt, Google's founder and its CEO
       | respectively, were already seated in the conference room when co-
       | founder Sergey Brin came in, out of breath. He was wearing
       | shorts. And roller skates."
       | 
       | Why do tech guys always try and act like they don't care when
       | they obviously do?
       | 
       | Why would Google tell Karmazin how they made money?
        
       | potatoman22 wrote:
       | Don't their data scientists do causal inference to determine this
       | stuff?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | otar wrote:
       | I don't believe in this. Ads really work.
        
       | AreYouElite wrote:
       | Oof! Think about it, when was the last time you saw an ad, and
       | went on to buy that product or service?
       | 
       | Who are these people who see an advertisement on the side of the
       | road and then go out and buy that very thing?
        
         | whimsicalism wrote:
         | Very different from most people on HN, but very common in
         | reality. I've witnessed this exact thing multiple times: see an
         | ad for something, immediately have to go get it.
        
         | sangnoir wrote:
         | Advertising on the side of the road was Burma Shave's schtick -
         | and it was highly effective.
        
         | AussieWog93 wrote:
         | I can make at least three people IRL that do this regularly.
         | 
         | My business has had huge success with promoted listings on
         | eBay. People will gladly pay 20% more for a sponsored item
         | rather than scroll down literally one inch to get better
         | organic results.
         | 
         | Even if these people are a tiny minority population-wise, they
         | make up a disproportionate percentage of people that waste
         | money on frivolous or overpriced goods.
        
           | AreYouElite wrote:
           | Intriguing! I am new business, and my online ads campaign
           | seen by 4000+ people produced maybe about 2 installations.
           | Appealing to people in real life was much more effective for
           | me. I know my target audience is in the hundreds of thousands
           | but I just cannot reach them through more or less blind
           | online ads.
        
             | AussieWog93 wrote:
             | As someone else pointed out in a different thread, it
             | depends a lot on what your product is. If you're selling
             | something aimed at a highly tech-literate, "elite"
             | audience, ads will likely be much less effective than if
             | you're selling, say, decorated cupcakes.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | nikkinana wrote:
       | Nobody clicks on ads. They're just an excuse to track you. And
       | money laundering. That too.
        
       | kbrackbill wrote:
       | This sounds great and I want to believe it, but it feels like
       | another case of someone saying the sky is falling when it clearly
       | hasn't. What will it take for this advertising bubble to pop? Is
       | it even a bubble?
        
         | missedthecue wrote:
         | Funnily enough, the ad based tech companies have the most
         | reasonable stock prices. Facebook and Google are massively
         | profitable, still growing at double digit rates, and each have
         | only mid twenties PE ratios (the same as Caterpillar Heavy
         | Equipment, or electric utilities like ConEd and PG&E).
         | 
         | Meanwhile there are companies out there like Lordstown Motors,
         | Lucid, and Nikola, which have never sold a product but have
         | billion dollar market caps. Nikola is universally known as a
         | fraud, somehow has negative _revenue_ , and is still worth $5
         | billion. EVs are the real bubble.
        
           | runawaybottle wrote:
           | They are naive, they really think advertising doesn't work.
           | It works it's ass off. You can't find one identity that isn't
           | influenced by it.
           | 
           | Real programmers use vim. I could sell that for ages. Don't
           | play games with advertising, you are just as much of a cuck
           | as everyone else (rhetorically speaking, not you
           | specifically).
           | 
           | Anyways, real programmers read HN. I could sell that forever.
           | You think you're smarter than all of this? Real programmers
           | _______, and by god, you will fucking buy it. Here's some
           | Rust for you, you real programmer. I'll inundate you, this
           | stuff works.
        
           | baby wrote:
           | The stock price of facebook is just weirdly undervalued.
        
             | somedude895 wrote:
             | There's significant risks from possible regulation, anti-
             | trust measures and such.
        
           | ashtonkem wrote:
           | Some EV brands are clearly frauds, but with Ford introducing
           | its second EV next year, calling all of EVs a bubble is a
           | huge leap.
        
             | missedthecue wrote:
             | I'm not saying EVs are useless, or vaporware. Maintaining
             | the comparison here, you look back and can see that the
             | internet was clearly incredibly valuable and impactful in
             | essentially every describable way, but there was still a
             | dotcom bubble full of egregious excess.
        
           | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
           | https://www.currentmarketvaluation.com/models/price-
           | earnings...
           | 
           | I agree with some of what you are saying, but on a deeper
           | level I don't think a 25 PE ratio is particularly healthy so
           | I'd say the real bubble is an everything bubble we are
           | currently in. Facebook and Google have some of the lower PE
           | ratios right now because they actually have earnings.
           | 
           | >The current S&P500 10-year P/E Ratio is 37.8. This is 91%
           | above the modern-era market average of 19.6, putting the
           | current P/E 2.3 standard deviations above the modern-era
           | average.
        
         | matheusmoreira wrote:
         | > What will it take for this advertising bubble to pop?
         | 
         | Browsers shipping with uBlock Origin included.
        
           | jefftk wrote:
           | Browsers want to be popular with users, but they also want
           | websites to make money: if sites can't make money, there is
           | no web to browse.
        
             | matheusmoreira wrote:
             | > they also want websites to make money
             | 
             | By allowing them to abuse their users?
             | 
             | > if sites can't make money, there is no web to browse
             | 
             | There are other ways to make money other than advertising.
             | If they insist on ads, they _should_ disappear.
             | 
             | Besides, not everyone creates a website for profit.
             | Sometimes people just have something interesting to say.
             | The web used to have a lot of those before these commercial
             | interests started infesting it.
        
           | Zerverus wrote:
           | 90%+ of relevant traffic is mobile 95%+ of mobile traffic is
           | native
           | 
           | Don't delude yourself
        
             | tonyedgecombe wrote:
             | I'm sure 99% of Apple users would be happy with a popup on
             | first use of Safari that asked "would you like to block
             | adverts?". It would be no skin off Apple's nose.
        
               | phreeza wrote:
               | Even if they end up being blocked by many ad funded
               | sites?
        
               | matheusmoreira wrote:
               | We'll just block their blocking attempts.
        
               | BeFlatXIII wrote:
               | I never cared about what that website had to say that
               | much in the first place. If the entire web gets killed
               | because of this, I'll go read a book.
        
               | somedude895 wrote:
               | Their app ecosystem would implode as nobody would develop
               | or maintain their ad supported apps anymore.
        
               | Nextgrid wrote:
               | Does Apple care?
               | 
               | They already essentially killed off "ad supported apps"
               | with App Tracking Transparency, and Apple doesn't earn
               | anything from ads anyway (as opposed to paid apps where
               | they take a cut).
        
             | matheusmoreira wrote:
             | Yeah, for now. I'm doing my part to change that. People
             | love the fact uBlock Origin blocks the idiotic YouTube ads.
             | There's always Brave if for some reason they can't stand
             | Firefox.
             | 
             | And hey, if Apple will crack down on Facebook's espionage
             | over privacy concerns, who says they won't do the same to
             | these advertisers and their abusive surveillance
             | capitalism? Maybe they'll realize that advertising is pure
             | noise nobody cares about and block all ads in order to
             | improve usability. Maybe one day they'll get pissed they
             | aren't getting their fair 30% share of advertiser revenue
             | and block them out of spite. Maybe they'll wake up one day
             | and simply decide to kill the ads industry. Now that's a
             | delusion worth having.
        
               | gingerlime wrote:
               | Apple's privacy stance is questionable (see the recent
               | content scanning debacle).
               | 
               | Plus, I would say they profit more when the web
               | experience on their devices is inferior to apps, which
               | means annoying ads and popups help drive people to use
               | apps, which Apple profits from... (and some companies,
               | like Reddit, actively participate in annoying their own
               | users to get the app).
        
         | NeoVeles wrote:
         | There is the book on this called 'Subprime Attention Crisis' by
         | Tim Hwang that tries to argue this point.
         | 
         | It is only partially successful in its goals of saying the sky
         | is falling.
         | 
         | The overall message I came away with was that online
         | advertising has some serious issues that need addressing - but
         | they aren't anything that cannot be solved.
         | 
         | If there is a bubble then I suspect it isn't anywhere near as
         | big as it is made out to be and that any "crash" will be more
         | of a slow correction than the bottom suddenly dropping out.
        
       | bserge wrote:
       | You mean the second one? First one was in 2008-2009 lol
        
       | wombatmobile wrote:
       | Cheap advertising, you're lying
       | 
       | Never gonna get me what I want
       | 
       | I said, smooth talking, brain washing
       | 
       | Ain't never gonna get me what I need
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h9M3b9lh-7s
        
       | 1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote:
       | I used the exact title from the article and someone changed it.
       | (I did forget to include the date. That was a mistake and thank
       | you to whomever fixed it.)
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-10-02 23:01 UTC)