[HN Gopher] Silicon Lottery Closing Down
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       Silicon Lottery Closing Down
        
       Author : dtx1
       Score  : 62 points
       Date   : 2021-09-30 18:35 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (siliconlottery.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (siliconlottery.com)
        
       | zamadatix wrote:
       | Silicon Lottery was great. Perhaps oddly I never used them for
       | any of my desktops rather a few laptops. I'd get the top binned
       | CPU I could buy from them and tweak the clocks so that single
       | core was OC'd to the max and multi core was relatively close to
       | stock but undervolted. This kept fans from going nuts without
       | having to sacrifice a great deal of performance.
       | 
       | I really wanted to get my 5950X through them but the shortages at
       | the time made it hard enough to get one at all and they
       | eventually gave up even trying to list them.
        
       | chacham15 wrote:
       | So, for those of you that dont know what this is a simplified
       | explanation is: silicon lottery does a few things. 1. You can buy
       | processors which have lower defect rates and are therefore much
       | better at overclocking than others of the same type. 2. You can
       | get extra services like delidding which is normally done to
       | improve thermal transfer making it easier to overclock and keep
       | the system cool. The benefits of these have been decreasing over
       | time and with chip shortages as well, the lottery is closing
       | down.
        
       | gautamcgoel wrote:
       | While it's sad that they are closing, there is a positive take
       | here: there is less need for such a service, because A) there is
       | less variation among processors, so you know pretty much exactly
       | what you are getting and don't need third-party binning to get
       | top performance, and B) Intel has improved their Thermal
       | Interface Material (TIM), so there's no need for delidding.
       | Basically, CPU performance increased and grew more consistent, so
       | you don't need a third-party provider to pick out the good ones
       | for you.
        
         | heydabop wrote:
         | > there is less variation among processors
         | 
         | Definitely, to the point where it feels like they're breaking
         | up their product line to further narrow this variation, or at
         | least that felt like the case with the i9-10850K vs the
         | i9-10900K.
        
       | shadilay wrote:
       | I had a feeling they we're going to close a month ago when I
       | checked and they didn't have inventory.
        
       | gjsman-1000 wrote:
       | Overclocking, in my humble opinion, was always a sign of
       | inefficiency from a manufacturing perspective. If the
       | manufacturer was nearly-perfectly efficient at manufacturing and
       | binning, almost none of their chips should have any overclocking
       | headroom because they came out at their limits from the
       | beginning.
        
         | xondono wrote:
         | The original margin for overclocking was in fact a result of
         | being efficient.
         | 
         | Let's say you build 1000 chips and bin them in two categories
         | 900 came out near peak performance. Then you get orders for 200
         | of the top performance item, and 700 of the low tier. What are
         | you supposed to do? Build another 7k chips and store the high
         | performing ones?
         | 
         | The obvious solution, pick 600 top performing chips, relabel
         | them as low tier, sell them at lower margin, and if needed you
         | can start the next batch.
         | 
         | From computer accesories to top tier processors, the problem is
         | not in profit margins, is in cashflows.
        
           | acchow wrote:
           | This sounds like a company that is very bad at predicting
           | demand. Presumably in 2021, Intel can predict relative demand
           | between its product bins quite accurately?
        
             | sudosysgen wrote:
             | The fact is that the demand for the high end is always much
             | lower than successful chips and they need to have a
             | sizeable gap to justify those chips.
             | 
             | Also yields and bins improve significantly over a product
             | cycle so it's not set in stone.
        
         | bserge wrote:
         | Yep, that seems to be the case with AMD today. Intel, too, even
         | though their chips still seem to have more room for
         | overclocking (if you win the silicon lottery).
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | leetcrew wrote:
         | not necessarily. the "limits" exist in the context of
         | reasonable cooling solutions and the power delivery
         | capabilities of the cheapest supported motherboard. if intel
         | could assume everyone had overbuilt VRMs and a 360mm radiator,
         | they could push their top SKU further up the voltage/frequency
         | curve.
         | 
         | part of why overclocking is dying out is because of the
         | increasingly sophisticated boosting rules for modern CPUs.
         | traditionally, you would just set all cores to run at the same
         | speed 24/7 and go as far as you could under that regime. if you
         | try than with zen 3, you won't be able to hit max 1T boost. I
         | believe you are able to set per-core overclocks with zen 3, but
         | not sure if anyone does that in practice.
        
       | froggertoaster wrote:
       | I feel like this service came several years too late. The
       | overclocking community seemed much bigger 10-15 years ago.
        
         | mrb wrote:
         | How about 20 years ago? Remember the Celeron 300 MHz which
         | could be easily overclocked +50%(!) to 450 MHz?
        
           | cmsj wrote:
           | Heck yeah, and it supported SMP. I had two of them running on
           | an ABit BP6 motherboard as my Linux workstation. Good times.
        
         | 55873445216111 wrote:
         | AMD and Intel have gotten much better at pushing the stock CPU
         | frequencies up to the actual process limits as compared to 10
         | years ago. Also the various Turbo boost features now
         | automatically push it even further towards the limits when
         | there is thermal headroom. Therefore, there is hardly very much
         | headroom left on the table anymore for overclockers.
         | 
         | In 2009 I overclocked my i7 920 from 2.66GHz stock to 4.2GHz
         | fully stable with custom water-cooling. More recently I have
         | used i7 7700k and Ryzen 5950X under custom water-cooling and
         | manual overclocking gets you less than 10% at most. Hardly even
         | worth it. Just keep the CPU cool and let the built in boost
         | features work.
        
           | snuxoll wrote:
           | There's also the issue that newer cores run much hotter than
           | ever before. The chiplets in my new Ryzen 7 5800X are so
           | small that even my custom water loop can only do so much with
           | the temperatures as there just isn't enough surface area for
           | thermal transfer. I was honestly worried that I was
           | repeatedly messed up the mount of the CPU block, thermal
           | paste application, or that one or both were just bad when I
           | fired up HWInfo64 and did a burn-in test; my old Ryzen 5
           | 1600X didn't get near as hot on a 240MM AIO when overclocked
           | as the 5800X does doing normal boosting on a 360+240mm custom
           | loop.
        
         | Sebb767 wrote:
         | I'm pretty sure the community has grown, simply by the increase
         | of number of users alone. Extreme overclocking, which this
         | service caters to, seems to have shrunken, though. Probably
         | because of dimishing returns.
        
         | marginalia_nu wrote:
         | It probably mattered a lot more 10-15 years ago. A modern CPUs
         | toward the higher end of consumer grade equipment is so
         | powerful it's ridiculous.
        
         | potatolicious wrote:
         | The delidding service wouldn't have made sense back then - the
         | whole phenomenon arose only a few years ago when Intel changed
         | the TIM material to something substantially worse than what you
         | could get on the market.
         | 
         | It's still not clear to me why they did that.
         | 
         | But in any case, suddenly the thermal performance of Intel CPUs
         | dropped significantly, which gave rise to the de-lidding
         | phenomenon.
         | 
         | Now that Intel has switched back to a better TIM the era
         | necessarily is over.
         | 
         | 10-15 years ago folks did more overclocking but there wasn't
         | really a need to de-lid, it was more about heat dissipation via
         | elaborate cooling setups than messing with the chip package
         | itself.
        
           | wheybags wrote:
           | There is still some performance gains to be had by removing
           | the IHS and placing the cold plate of your cooler straight on
           | the die (and even crazy shit like lapping the die), but yeah,
           | the major reason was intel's bad paste under the ihs.
        
         | AussieWog93 wrote:
         | >The overclocking community seemed much bigger 10-15 years ago.
         | 
         | Now you're making me nostalgic. 10-15 years ago was both my
         | teenage years and the end of the overclocking golden era. I
         | remember overclocking the living shit out of all kinds of Core2
         | stuff without anything except a stock cooler and a modest
         | voltage bump that was still within Intel's "safe"
         | recommendations.
         | 
         | One of the best gains was with an E5200 I spend around $120 on
         | brand new. Bumped that up from 2.5GHz to 3.8GHz and the
         | performance was closer to a then-$300 E8400 than the low end
         | Pentium I'd purchased.
         | 
         | The last CPU I overclocked was an i7 2600k, which was my daily
         | driver until last year (!!!).
         | 
         | On one hand, I miss that crazy era, but on the other hand I
         | understand why it had to go away. Intel just don't have the
         | sheer performance advantage to be able to gimp their own chips
         | like that any more.
         | 
         | Edit: Just remembered some of the gimping AMD did, like the HD
         | 6950 that could be upgraded to a 6970 with nothing but a BIOS
         | flash, and the "3-core" Phenoms with a 4th core that could be
         | unlocked in the BIOS.
        
           | Svperstar wrote:
           | I miss the era of the Celeron 300 mhz overclocked to 450 mhz.
           | Was a time of rapid change.
        
             | ericd wrote:
             | Yeah, it was such an easy overclock, too, bumping the
             | frontside bus from 66 MHz to 100 MHz. And suddenly your
             | budget chip could hang with much, much more expensive
             | chips.
        
       | Grustaf wrote:
       | Does anyone know what they did with the "losing" chips, the ones
       | they bought that didn't turn out to be positive outliers? Seems
       | very tricky to get this financially viable, since 90% of chips
       | will just be average. At least I assume so?
        
         | Sebb767 wrote:
         | It seems the resold them cheaper [0]. Unfortunately, all prices
         | are zeroed, so it's hard to tell by how much and whether it was
         | below retail.
         | 
         | [0]
         | https://siliconlottery.com/collections/cometlake/products/10...
         | (see the description, 100% of CPUs reached this).
        
           | banana_giraffe wrote:
           | I'm not knowledge on CPU prices, but looking at their prices
           | from January [1] , it looks like you could save around 10%
           | off retail if you used them to get the "losing" chips.
           | 
           | [1] https://web.archive.org/web/20210116175309/https://silico
           | nlo...
        
           | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
           | I still see prices at
           | https://siliconlottery.com/collections/all
           | 
           | Intel Core i9 11900K @ 4.9GHz Boxed Processor $ 519.99
           | 
           | Intel Core i9 11900K @ 5.0GHz Boxed Processor Sale price $
           | 499.99 Regular price $ 579.99 Save $ 80
           | 
           | Intel Core i9 11900K @ 5.1GHz Boxed Processor Regular price $
           | 779.99
           | 
           | Intel Core i9 11900KF @ 4.9GHz Boxed Processor Regular price
           | $ 499.99
           | 
           | Intel Core i9 11900KF @ 5.0GHz Boxed Processor Regular price
           | $ 559.99
           | 
           | Intel Core i9 11900KF @ 5.1GHz Boxed Processor Sale price $
           | 639.99 Regular price $ 759.99
           | 
           | The discounted ones are the only ones not marked sold out.
        
         | cortesoft wrote:
         | Resell them as average?
        
           | Grustaf wrote:
           | Yeah, but will they even make a profit on those? I mean
           | presumably people who just want a normal processor would
           | prefer to get it from a more well known shop, so they can't
           | even charge market price for them.
           | 
           | Plus their "normal" chips are actually worse than your
           | average market chip, since they removed the good ones.
           | 
           | But maybe the margins are high, so they didn't lose money on
           | those.
        
       | withinrafael wrote:
       | "Delidding" is the process of removing the lid--the shiny
       | exterior metal integrated heat spreader (IHS)--and replacing the
       | thermal interface material (TIM) between the CPU die and the
       | spreader. This is done in hopes to reduce operating temperatures
       | and increase overclocking potential. This is similar to the
       | process of scraping off the stock TIM on a retail heatsink. This
       | procedure can be difficult to perform; Silicon Lottery provided a
       | premium service for interested customers.
       | 
       | Silicon Lottery also provided "bin" identification services [1]
       | via frequency tests and sold desirable highest quality/lowest
       | defect chips (hence the company name, I presume). Processor
       | "binning", overly simplified, is a process of testing and sorting
       | processors into various bins (e.g. best performance, lowest
       | defects vs. decent performance, some defects, etc). That
       | explanation doesn't do the process justice but should give you an
       | idea.
       | 
       | [1] https://siliconlottery.com/pages/statistics
        
         | dcow wrote:
         | Yep and with Intel shitting the process bed all they can do is
         | bin their existing stuff better, add some more aggressive
         | boosting, and sell it as i9. They're essentially stuck
         | "overclocking" their own chips.
        
           | techrat wrote:
           | To the point to where you often could get better performance
           | UNDERCLOCKING what Intel sold you. Often to the amount of 1%
           | less performance but also 15% less power draw.
        
             | heydabop wrote:
             | > you often could get better performance UNDERCLOCKING
             | 
             | > often to the amount of 1% less performance
             | 
             | That doesn't sound like better performance to me. Better
             | performance per watt maybe, but then if I'm buying an i9
             | chip I'm probably not chasing performance per watt.
        
               | techrat wrote:
               | You miss the whole issue with Intel's CPUs.
               | 
               | How much power they draw.
               | 
               | They hit thermal throttle quite often. Especially the
               | high end chips where Intel is maximizing the clock to bin
               | them as i9s.
               | 
               | 1% overall decrease in performance to ensure a lower
               | power draw overall to prevent reaching thermal throttling
               | thresholds absolutely does equate to better performance.
        
               | throaway46546 wrote:
               | I could be wrong, but I guess that would depend on how
               | efficient your cooling is, no?
        
               | techrat wrote:
               | Intel has been misrepresenting the TDP requirements of
               | their CPUs for some time.
               | 
               | https://www.extremetech.com/computing/319402-intels-
               | desktop-...
               | 
               | Something they list as 65W can draw over 200 Watts at
               | full load.
               | 
               | Consider that even with the most high end CPUs, they
               | include the copper slug stock coolers than can make even
               | a 45W rated CPU thermal throttle.
               | 
               | > For most of the 2010s, Intel kept its typical desktop
               | CPU power consumption at or below the CPU's rated TDP,
               | even at peak power draw. Once AMD launched Ryzen and
               | Intel had to start adding more CPU cores to its desktop
               | parts, that changed. The Core i9-10850K draws up to 265W
               | but claims a 125W TDP. The Core i7-10700 claims 65W, but
               | draws up to 214W under load, at motherboard defaults.
               | 
               | In effect, Intel is brute forcing performance by cranking
               | the power draw way up in order to compensate for what AMD
               | has been able to bring to the table. They're bulldozering
               | their way out of this mess, basically. The end result is
               | that Intel is already pushing their chips to near maximum
               | performance, power efficiency be damned, leaving zero
               | room for overclocking... as the reason for this article
               | exists.
        
           | RachelF wrote:
           | And AMD is also overclocking their own chips now.
           | 
           | The days of running a chip 20% faster are gone - now with
           | much tweaking you'll get a few percent gain and way more
           | power draw.
           | 
           | All this makes the Apple M1 chip look amazing, for single
           | core loads it matches the best AMD and Intel have to offer.
        
             | teamspirit wrote:
             | If only we could add a real GPU.
        
               | dcow wrote:
               | I wish the eGPU scene was a little more refined and
               | mature. It was almost there with Intel thunderbolt but
               | with the M1 we've got an entirely new thunderbolt
               | implementation that barely supports (pretty sure it still
               | doesn't without something like display link) more than
               | one external display for what I can only imagine is a
               | hardware limitation. It seems like we always almost get
               | there and then something new comes along and everyone
               | chases that instead.
        
       | 0x4863A0 wrote:
       | Can someone explain what this is/was?
        
         | w-ll wrote:
         | Looks as if they bought CPUs and did their own
         | benchmarks/binning and resold them based of their measured
         | performance.
        
         | CivBase wrote:
         | Looks like you could mail them a CPU and pay them to upgrade
         | the thermal compound under the IHS and optionally test it to
         | determine maximum stable overclock parameters.
         | 
         | It looks like they also binned high-end CPUs. For those not
         | familiar, that means they tested each CPU to determine its
         | maximum stable overclock, then re-sold them with a markup on
         | the fastest ones.
        
         | Tuna-Fish wrote:
         | CPUs sold under the same name can have substantial differences
         | in their overclocking headroom. Back when variation was larger,
         | purchasing a new CPU was thus participating in the "silicon
         | lottery", at least if you wanted to OC.
         | 
         | The siliconlottery site used to buy a whole lot of CPUs, test
         | them, determine their max stable overclocks, and then sell the
         | good ones at markup (and the not-so-great ones at a little
         | below market). If you wanted the very fastest cpu money could
         | buy, and didn't want to start binning cpus yourself, they were
         | the best option.
         | 
         | The market has largely died out because the manufacturers have
         | improved their binning and reduced variability to the point
         | that the best chips are no longer meaningfully better than the
         | average and OC rarely makes much sense anyway. In many ways,
         | this is good for customers, but it is an end of an era.
        
       | awesomeusername wrote:
       | RIP. It was a great service and really well run.
        
       | avree wrote:
       | Who?
        
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