[HN Gopher] Major Quantum Computing Strategy Suffers Serious Set...
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       Major Quantum Computing Strategy Suffers Serious Setbacks
        
       Author : elsewhen
       Score  : 80 points
       Date   : 2021-09-30 14:50 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.quantamagazine.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.quantamagazine.org)
        
       | pedrosbmartins wrote:
       | I remember reading a while ago about a group of quantum physicist
       | that believe in a fundamental barrier to the construction of
       | useful quantum computers. Is that still the case, or is it
       | generally believed that a large-scale, useful quantum computer is
       | simply a finite number of iterations away from reality?
        
         | zardo wrote:
         | I think that view was based on the (probably correct) idea that
         | sufficiently reliable physical qubits could not be built. The
         | more qubits in the computer, the more reliable the qubits would
         | need to be.
         | 
         | Since the discovery of quantum ECC, that's no longer a reason
         | to believe a quantum computer can't be built, a reliable
         | logical qubit can be built out of a number of less reliable
         | physical qubits.
        
       | ignorem3 wrote:
       | The picture showing the vast array of cooling tubes and doodads
       | say it all for me. This impossibly finicky technology will never
       | achieve the promise of beating classical computers. Put it in the
       | back of a drawer with the perpetual motion machine and call it a
       | day.
        
       | candyman wrote:
       | The title should probably be "A Major Quantum Computing
       | Strategy..." It's less surprising that way since there are quite
       | a few different fundamental paths people are taking towards
       | quantum computing. I'm no expert but did an in-depth project
       | around "adiabatic" QC and I was satisfied that it could work for
       | a number of optimization problems. With IonQ coming public this
       | week I expect the level of attention on the sector to keep going
       | up. There have been many false starts over the last decade. I
       | wonder how close we are to commercial use?
        
         | reikonomusha wrote:
         | The people who are seriously saying we are close to commercial
         | use are also typically quantum company CEOs or group leads with
         | a personal financial stake, bending "commercial use" to be as
         | broad as possible. Quantum computing is improving rapidly, and
         | the field sees great progress, but no one has demonstrated
         | anything that most reasonable people would consider "useful".
        
       | ThePhysicist wrote:
       | Honestly, the authors of the retracted paper that the article
       | mentions were lucky the whole thing just blew over without
       | consequences for them (probably because a very high-profile
       | researcher was involved). I think if a less well-known research
       | group would've edited experimental data like they did the
       | community would not have been this forgiving. To be clear the
       | authors didn't fabricate new data but they edited a graph in a
       | way that can only be described as highly misleading and possibly
       | fraudulent. My advisors would've killed me had they discovered me
       | doing something like that. So IMHO interpreting this as a naive
       | mistake or overzealousness doesn't do it justice. That said I'm
       | no longer working in academia so I don't really care, just
       | thought the handling of this incident was odd given previous
       | cases of data manipulation in the Physics community.
       | 
       | Anyway, topological quantum computing and Majorana fermions are
       | interesting but the research in that area is at a stage where
       | we've been with superconducting systems 30-40 years ago, i.e.
       | people making the first fundamental experiments and trying to
       | assemble the basic building blocks for a qubit. So I don't think
       | anyone seriously bets on topological quantum computers to win the
       | race.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | inasio wrote:
         | There must have been consequences from the Microsoft side of
         | things. This issue essentially killed the main candidate in
         | their quantum computing program.
        
           | reikonomusha wrote:
           | They've pivoted to a huge software play to make "the one
           | quantum programming language to rule them all"--which is a
           | pie many are grabbing for. IBM is similarly doing huge and
           | protracted marketing campaigns to attract software developers
           | to their platform, not unlike Java in the past 25 years.
        
       | reikonomusha wrote:
       | Inevitably, this article (and implications about quantum
       | computing) is going to be vastly misinterpreted due to the title.
       | It would be like saying "Major Shuttle Strategy Suffers Serious
       | Setbacks" but the strategy is using slingshots to get us into
       | orbit, ignoring the work of, say, NASA and SpaceX.
       | 
       | This quantum computing strategy neither was nor is practiced by
       | the vast majority of quantum institutions--commercial or
       | otherwise. It was attempted by a group at Microsoft (and a small
       | collection of other university groups) and was known from the
       | start that it would be a search for essentially fundamentally new
       | observations.
       | 
       | Other quantum computing players, like Rigetti, Google, HRL
       | Laboratories, IBM, Amazon, Honeywell, and others are doing an
       | approach that is nothing like the article, and have demonstrated
       | significant results.
        
         | rdtsc wrote:
         | Yeah probably a bit of an exaggeration. "Major" ... "Majorona
         | particle" I can see how one can make a subconscious connection
         | there :-)
         | 
         | I guess I wouldn't call it major but rather "exiting" strategy.
         | The theoretical result from Kitaev [1], from Microsoft
         | research, was certainly interesting. Having a way not deal with
         | error corrections would be really great.
         | 
         | [1] https://arxiv.org/pdf/cond-mat/0010440.pdf
         | 
         | > Thus an isolated Majorana site (usually called a Majorana
         | fermion) is immune to any kind of error!
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | It should really be "A quantum computing strategy suffers..."
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | Or: "One idea in quantum computing bears no fruit"
        
             | westurner wrote:
             | "Quantized Majorana conductance not actually observed
             | within indium antimonide nanowires"
             | 
             | "Quantum qubit substrate found to be apparently
             | insufficient" (Given the given methods and probably
             | available resources)
             | 
             | And then - in an attempt to use terminology from
             | Constructor Theory
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constructor_theory :
             | 
             | > In constructor theory, a transformation or change is
             | described as a _task_. A _constructor_ is a physical entity
             | which is able to carry out a given task repeatedly. A task
             | is only possible if a constructor capable of carrying it
             | out exists, otherwise it is impossible. To work with
             | constructor theory everything is expressed in terms of
             | tasks. The properties of information are then expressed as
             | relationships between _possible-_ and _impossible tasks_.
             | _Counterfactuals_ are thus fundamental statements and the
             | properties of information may be described by physical
             | laws.[4] If a system has a set of attributes, the set of
             | permutations of these attributes is seen as a set of tasks.
             | A _computation medium_ is a system whose attributes permute
             | to always produce a possible task. The set of permutations,
             | and hence of tasks, is a _computation set_. If it is
             | possible to copy the attributes in the computation set, the
             | computation medium is also an _information medium_.
             | 
             | > Information, or a given task, does not rely on a specific
             | constructor. Any suitable constructor will serve. This
             | ability of information to be carried on different physical
             | systems or media is described as _interoperability_ , and
             | arises as the principle that the combination of two
             | _information media_ is also an information medium.[4] Media
             | capable of carrying out quantum computations are called
             | _superinformation media_ , and are characterised by
             | specific properties. Broadly, certain copying tasks on
             | their states are impossible tasks. This is claimed to give
             | rise to all the known differences between quantum and
             | classical information.[4]
             | 
             | "Subsequent attempts to reproduce [Quantized Majorana
             | conductance (topological qubits of arranged electrons)
             | within indium antimonide nanowires] eventually as a
             | (quantum) computation medium for the given tasks failed"
             | 
             | "Quantum computation by Majorana zero-mode (MZM)
             | quasiparticles _in indium antimonide nanowires_ not
             | actually apparently possible "
             | 
             | ... "But what about in DDR5?" Which leads us to a more
             | generally interesting: "Rowhammer for qubits", which is
             | already an actual Quantum on Silicon (QoS) thing.
        
       | StatsAreFun wrote:
       | This is interesting! My thinking is that quantum computing is
       | shaping up to be similar to fusion in the sense that it will
       | steadily march toward usability but a commercial fusion reactor
       | will forever be several years away from production. Is this the
       | case or am I just really ignorant of the QC field?
        
         | mikewave wrote:
         | I work on a real, cold-as-space production quantum computer and
         | its cloud service that you can sign up and use for free today -
         | the D-Wave Advantage system, with 5000+ qubits, that you can
         | use via D-Wave Leap.
         | 
         | The difference here is that we produce a quantum annealer,
         | which is useful for optimization problems instead of for
         | database searches + factoring. It's already delivering some
         | real-world value for early applications.
         | 
         | While gate model machines are interesting, D-Wave took the tack
         | of implementing the model of QC most likely to lead to actual
         | useful applications within our lifetimes. Gate-model QC does
         | seem to be very useful, but until it reaches millions of
         | physical qubits it's not going to be producing any results
         | beyond pet laboratory projects, and it remains to be seen if
         | that's even physically possible. In contrast, quantum annealing
         | has been able to grow at a good rate both in terms of qubit
         | count, degree of connectivity between qubits, and also in terms
         | of reaching lower noise and better quality results.
         | 
         | We also have hybrid solvers that combine the state of the art
         | in classical algorithms with QPU sampling to get the lowest
         | energy state possible with a much larger graph than we can do
         | in hardware.
         | 
         | I think it's a very interesting field to follow, there are huge
         | investments being made and real progress is happening on a
         | number of fronts. Our competitors are trying to bring live
         | systems to market, too, but it's harder to see them being much
         | more useful than simulators for the foreseeable future.
        
           | ogogmad wrote:
           | What do you think of Scott Aaronson's previous scepticism
           | towards D-wave computers? I think it boiled down to them not
           | doing a comparison with the best classical algorithms running
           | on the best classical computers. Are your comparisons apples
           | to apples?
           | 
           | I think what you wrote makes sense as a way of maximising the
           | chances of producing a viable product. I suppose there aren't
           | any guarantees that it will be competitive with bog-standard
           | computers, but it might be a reasonable gamble.
        
             | mikewave wrote:
             | I work on the classical computers around the exotic stuff,
             | so I'm not really qualified to comment. Either way,
             | Aaronson's negative commentary - which is many years out of
             | date, at this point - is not something that anyone pays
             | very much mind to, because at the end of the day one can't
             | allow a mere critic on the sidelines to get in the way of
             | actually producing real machines.
             | 
             | > maximising the chances of producing a viable product
             | 
             | That's the goal. The annealing QPU is a co-processor, like
             | your GPU, like vector processors, or a DSP, etc. It doesn't
             | need to compete with classical compute on the things
             | classical compute is good at; it needs to compete on the
             | things classical compute is bad at, or at the very least,
             | bad at without throwing massive piles of money at it. There
             | is a crossover point for optimization problems where we
             | will be able to show a price/performance advantage over
             | classical compute, which we term Quantum Advantage (vs. the
             | more divisive term of Quantum Supremacy).
             | 
             | The trick at this point is formulating problems in such a
             | way as to be something you can run on our hardware, which
             | still requires a deep mathematical skillset. This is
             | something we're building on... perhaps pay attention to our
             | Qubits conference coming up next week -
             | https://www.qubits.com/ - there should be some interesting
             | announcements!
        
         | seibelj wrote:
         | Considering the much-touted "quantum supremacy" achievement was
         | extremely contrived, it seems like the hype has gotten far
         | ahead of the reality.
        
           | reikonomusha wrote:
           | Just so nobody is misinterpreting what you're saying (that
           | somehow the quantum supremacy result was a farce): Quantum
           | supremacy is a very important milestone in quantum computing.
           | Being contrived or academic is fine because it's intended to
           | be fundamental science. The term "supremacy" was already long
           | a part of the quantum computing lexicon before the result was
           | achieved, and it has essentially a precise mathematical
           | definition. I think it's an unfortunate term, but it
           | certainly _wasn't_ invented for the occasion.
           | 
           | Some people blew the result out of proportion, making claims
           | that finally quantum computers are provably useful/the
           | best/etc. Google (who got the result) know these claims are
           | not true, but in their typical character, turned a blind eye
           | to the hype that ensued, because who doesn't want free press?
        
             | kvathupo wrote:
             | Don't we have a provable guarantee in the case of the
             | traversal of glued trees via oracle, i.e. no classical
             | algorithm has lower query-complexity? (Granted, the same
             | can't be said for Grover's)
             | 
             | See section 16.4 of these notes (pdf warning) [1].
             | 
             | [1] - http://www.cs.umd.edu/~amchilds/qa/qa.pdf
        
               | simiones wrote:
               | These are two somewhat separate problems:
               | 
               | 1. Do theoretical quantum computers have different
               | properties than theoretical classical computers? (or, QBP
               | = P? )
               | 
               | 2. Does some particular physical device show the
               | properties associated with a theoretical quantum
               | computer?
               | 
               | Of course, if 1 is false, than 2 is more or less
               | irrelevant. However, even if 1 true, that still leaves
               | the question of 2 for any particular device.
               | 
               | The Google and Chinese experiments have proven 2 for
               | their own particular devices.
               | 
               | This is an important milestone not just for these
               | particular devices, but also because, prior to this,
               | there was also a question 3: do QM systems actually
               | exhibit the properties of a theoretical quantum computer?
               | After the Google result, this has been almost entirely
               | put to rest: the answer is yes.
        
               | reikonomusha wrote:
               | Excellent explanation and separation of concerns.
        
           | simiones wrote:
           | The quantum supremacy milestone was still extremely
           | important, even if it doesn't in any way mean that we are
           | close to a working QC.
           | 
           | Before this milestone, there were still reasons to believe
           | that quantum computers could not, in principle, beat
           | classical computers, that there is some fundamental
           | limitation of the universe that would actually prevent
           | quantum effects from making a QC work.
           | 
           | After this milestone, the only "hope" for such a fundamental
           | limitation lies in the area of quantum error correction - the
           | possibility that, somehow, you would lose the theoretical
           | speed-up from QC by having to re-run the algorithm enough
           | times to get an accurate enough response. As Scott Aaronson
           | explains, while disappointing in terms of QC, this would also
           | be extremely exciting for quantum mechanics itself and for
           | our understanding of the universe.
           | 
           | So, the Google and Chinese quantum supremacy demonstrations,
           | while useless as actual computations, serve a very important
           | role in showing that actual quantum computers have properties
           | that can't be replicated by classical computers, which was
           | not proven before these experiments were run.
           | 
           | Equivalently, you can say that these experiments have proven
           | that the physical systems being called "quantum computers"
           | have at least some properties of the theoretical mathematical
           | concept of a quantum computer - something that no previous
           | systems had proven conclusively. In this way, this can also
           | be seen as a new test of Quantum Mechanics' predictions,
           | since it proves once again that real physical systems do
           | exhibit some of the complex behaviors predicted by the maths.
        
             | sampo wrote:
             | > Before this milestone, there were still reasons to
             | believe that quantum computers could not, in principle,
             | beat classical computers
             | 
             | The laws of Quantum Mechanics clearly allow quantum
             | computers. So those beliefs must have included something
             | that goes beyond known physics i.e. the assumption of some
             | supernatural effect?
        
               | reikonomusha wrote:
               | The laws of Newtonian physics also "allow" frictionless,
               | spherical cows.
               | 
               | The laws of relativity and nuclear physics "allow" a
               | tablespoon of salt to provide 453 GWh of energy.
        
             | fooker wrote:
             | The quantum supremacy demonstrations were effectively
             | showing that a quantum computer can simulate a quantum
             | computer better than a classical computer. That is sort of
             | meh...
        
               | reikonomusha wrote:
               | That is not an accurate reduction. They showed they can
               | sample from a particular probability distribution which
               | is hard to do classically.
               | 
               | And fundamental developments in physics or theoretical
               | computer science aren't concerned with what's "meh". It
               | was a logical next step to determining whether these
               | machines do something they're theoretically supposed to
               | be able to do.
        
           | xxpor wrote:
           | I think for a lot of people the real question is how far
           | ahead the intel agencies (really, the NSA) are. How many
           | years will there be a super mega top secret quantum computer
           | sitting in the basement of Ft. Meade breaking DH before
           | someone figures it out?
        
             | daxfohl wrote:
             | Not yet. The way this kind of stuff usually works is that,
             | as we get closer we'll see some high-profile researchers
             | suddenly quit their jobs to go work on "something else".
        
               | xxpor wrote:
               | Yeah that'd make sense. Thinking about it, that's exactly
               | what happened with the Manhattan Project.
        
             | kvathupo wrote:
             | Considering government pay and bureaucracy, this is
             | probably unlikely today
        
             | ryan93 wrote:
             | No. the smartest people work for universities or private
             | companies. people would know if top scientists were leaving
             | for the NSA
        
               | xxpor wrote:
               | That's true generally, but I thought I saw some stat that
               | NSA hired some crazy % of the math PhDs in the US (like
               | 30%+). I also thought the national labs were considered
               | pretty good places to work.
        
               | thehappypm wrote:
               | "Why shouldn't I work for the N.S.A.? That's a tough one,
               | but I'll take a shot. Say I'm working at N.S.A. Somebody
               | puts a code on my desk, something nobody else can break.
               | Maybe I take a shot at it and maybe I break it. And I'm
               | real happy with myself, cause I did my job well. But
               | maybe that code was the location of some rebel army in
               | North Africa or the Middle East. Once they have that
               | location, they bomb the village where the rebels were
               | hiding and fifteen hundred people I never met, never had
               | no problem with, get killed. Now the politicians are
               | sayin', "Oh, send in the Marines to secure the area"
               | cause they don't give a shit. It won't be their kid over
               | there, gettin' shot. Just like it wasn't them when their
               | number got called, cause they were pullin' a tour in the
               | National Guard. It'll be some kid from Southie takin'
               | shrapnel in the ass.
               | 
               | And he comes back to find that the plant he used to work
               | at got exported to the country he just got back from. And
               | the guy who put the shrapnel in his ass got his old job,
               | cause he'll work for fifteen cents a day and no bathroom
               | breaks. Meanwhile, he realizes the only reason he was
               | over there in the first place was so we could install a
               | government that would sell us oil at a good price. And,
               | of course, the oil companies used the skirmish over there
               | to scare up domestic oil prices. A cute little ancillary
               | benefit for them, but it ain't helping my buddy at two-
               | fifty a gallon.
               | 
               | And they're takin' their sweet time bringin' the oil
               | back, of course, and maybe even took the liberty of
               | hiring an alcoholic skipper who likes to drink martinis
               | and fuckin' play slalom with the icebergs, and it ain't
               | too long 'til he hits one, spills the oil and kills all
               | the sea life in the North Atlantic. So now my buddy's out
               | of work and he can't afford to drive, so he's got to walk
               | to the fuckin' job interviews, which sucks cause the
               | shrapnel in his ass is givin' him chronic hemorrhoids.
               | And meanwhile he's starvin', cause every time he tries to
               | get a bite to eat, the only blue plate special they're
               | servin' is North Atlantic scrod with Quaker State.
               | 
               | So what did I think? I'm holdin' out for somethin'
               | better. I figure fuck it, while I'm at it why not just
               | shoot my buddy, take his job, give it to his sworn enemy,
               | hike up gas prices, bomb a village, club a baby seal, hit
               | the hash pipe and join the National Guard? I could be
               | elected president."
               | 
               | Good Will Hunting
        
         | daxfohl wrote:
         | No, there are a few well understood approaches to physically
         | creating a QC, each of which are seeing incremental progress
         | every year. That's not to say there's a clear path from here to
         | there, but it's a lot closer to clear than fusion. Fusion is
         | still (to my understanding) closer to a research topic without
         | a clear cut approach.
         | 
         | That's also not to say that these roles will not reverse in the
         | future. Perhaps some fundamental problem is found with the
         | existing QC approaches, and someone discovers a fusion approach
         | that is straightforward and just requires a big engineering
         | effort. But right now to me it seems like fusion is closer to a
         | Majorana-based QC (though Majorana is slightly more nebulous
         | since even the theory isn't completely there) than it is to QC
         | in general.
        
         | inasio wrote:
         | Relatively recently there has been a ton of funding pouring
         | into PsiQuantum ($650M, a bunch of it from Microsoft, perhaps
         | reallocating their Majorana investment), which is building a
         | photonic QC. There may be something there, or it could be
         | another Magic Leap...
        
         | bawolff wrote:
         | I think the difference is that nobody except snake oil salesmen
         | and people who want investors in their qc company were saying
         | that useful quantum computers were only a couple years away.
        
       | titties4fr33 wrote:
       | This is really interesting but off-topic.
       | 
       | I come to hackernews for gay sex and covid conversation.
       | 
       | I'm really looking forward to the AMA from Fauci.
        
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