[HN Gopher] Murder rate rose by almost 30% in 2020 in the US
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       Murder rate rose by almost 30% in 2020 in the US
        
       Author : atlasunshrugged
       Score  : 80 points
       Date   : 2021-09-24 10:31 UTC (12 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | http://web.archive.org/web/20210924103924/https://www.nytime...
       | 
       | https://archive.is/xuynD
        
       | giardini wrote:
       | I've always heard that the murder rate and other assault stats
       | was most strongly correlated with the number of males between the
       | ages of ~16 and 26.
        
       | enono wrote:
       | I'm just eyeballing it here, but it looks like there was a
       | similar increase in homicides (i know there is a difference
       | between homicide and murder) during the spanish flu pandemic from
       | 1918-1920
       | 
       | https://sites.nationalacademies.org/cs/groups/dbassesite/doc...
       | 
       | Also y'all should not be so confident in your diagnosis of why
       | the murder rate spiked so much this year. Hindsight is 20/20 and
       | this is a highly complex / multivariate problem. Simple answers
       | are probably wrong here
        
         | rufus_foreman wrote:
         | >> Simple answers are probably wrong here
         | 
         | I would argue the opposite in this case. The increase started
         | at the same time in almost every large city in the US, but not
         | in other countries in the world. If the same thing happens in
         | 30 cities at the same time, I'm not looking for 30 root causes,
         | I'm looking at what was the commonality in those 30 US cities
         | around that time that was different from what was going on in
         | the rest of the world.
        
       | felistoria wrote:
       | I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all. I do
       | think is has to do with removing the ability of the police to
       | make arrests or when they do the person is just released. In
       | Portland, when they arrest someone, the DA just releases them.
       | About a month ago the female owner of a coffee shop was blasted
       | out of no where with an uppercut by a homeless guy. The dude was
       | arrested and let out in less than 24 hours. How do you let
       | someone violent like that just roam the streets? The only way the
       | actually put someone away anymore is for murder. Stuff like this
       | is definitely one factor as to why murder rates are up.
        
         | bjourne wrote:
         | Isn't it a little presumptuous of you to think that you know
         | what caused the spike when criminologists who study all kinds
         | of crime rates for a living does not know?
        
           | felistoria wrote:
           | It doesn't take a rocket scientist to come to the logical
           | conclusion that catch and release of criminals will lead to
           | more crime.
        
         | halfmatthalfcat wrote:
         | Same story in Chicago. Not sure if it's because holding them
         | would cause overcrowding or what but it's a huge problem
        
           | spamizbad wrote:
           | Illinois had, at one point, the most crowded prisons in the
           | nation. They're still technically over capacity, but it's no
           | longer that extreme.
           | 
           | In my opinion, if you want to throw more people in prison,
           | you need to invest in the infrastructure to house them.
           | Voters quickly lose their appetite for "Law and Order"/"Throw
           | away the key" when the tax man comes by asking to build a new
           | prison and hire more prison guards. I don't see many people
           | advocating for more IDOC funding although I'm sure they
           | exist.
           | 
           | Should we be locking more people up? Maybe, but how are we
           | going to pay for it? And is that _really_ the correct answer
           | when the United States incarceration rate is already several
           | times higher than the OECD average? I would say the smarter
           | course of action is to address root causes of these problems
           | - building more prisons and trying to incarcerate our way out
           | of the problem is just creating our own gulag archipelago.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | GoodJokes wrote:
         | Prison is not effective and inhumane.
        
         | cbsmith wrote:
         | > I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all.
         | 
         | That seems like a reasonable on conclusion given that the
         | totals for May 1 & Jun 1 were already record setting...
        
         | drbojingle wrote:
         | I agree. It's not as if police actively go searching for
         | murderers to catch. They respond to issues that have already
         | happened.
        
         | BitwiseFool wrote:
         | The dominant mindset these days is that prison should be about
         | rehabilitation, not punishment. It sounds wonderful and
         | unobjectionable on its surface. But it is wrong. Not _entirely_
         | wrong, but wrong nonetheless.
         | 
         | Because prison also serves as a risk reduction measure for the
         | general public. While I do want our justice system to try its
         | hardest to rehabilitate people, I hold the abhorrently
         | unpopular opinion that some portion of the population just
         | needs to be kept away from the rest. I hear plenty of local
         | news stories about a suspect who has 20+ prior offenses being
         | let go from custody awaiting trial. Why in the world do we let
         | people with such a track record out of jail, much less with no
         | cash bail?
        
           | AuryGlenz wrote:
           | I'll back up your unpopular opinion and say we should have a
           | new Australia. Some people are never going to rehabilitate,
           | keeping them in prison costs a ton of money, and they'd
           | probably enjoy being on an island somewhere better
           | anyways...even if it would be a ridiculously lawless place.
           | 
           | The only problem is I think we're all out of inhabitable
           | places.
        
             | reducesuffering wrote:
             | Problem is the same with the death penalty, sentencing some
             | innocent people, because that's essentially what you'd be
             | sentencing them to. Some innocent people (tried guilty)
             | will be sent there and immediately become slaves or killed.
             | 
             | Have a minimal force to enforce basic rights? Well to
             | actually configure that safely, you're back at a prison.
        
           | maxmcd wrote:
           | The United States has the largest prison population in the
           | world and the highest incarceration rate. Every time there is
           | a crime thread on HN it is full of anecdotal stories about
           | how we can be tougher on crime. It boggles my mind that this
           | is the accepted framing.
           | 
           | You're not going to "see" the lives that wasted in prisons
           | that would have been reasonably rehabilitated in other
           | countries.
           | 
           | You would have to think the criminal justice system in the
           | united states is extremely fair and that we have a
           | dramatically different population to place such a high
           | priority on the people that are possibly victims of crimes
           | over people that are inappropriately incarcerated.
        
             | darawk wrote:
             | It's almost as though the framing of "tougher" vs "softer"
             | is a ridiculous over-simplification of the matter.
             | 
             | We should be tougher on violent crime and softer on non-
             | violent crime.
             | 
             | EDIT: I want to amend this to say that even the increase in
             | nuance that I just suggested is probably not nuanced
             | enough. Some kinds of violent crime we are probably too
             | harsh on, and some kinds of non-violent crime (e.g. serious
             | white collar financial crime, or certain types of
             | safety/environmental violations at scale) we could probably
             | stand to be a bit harsher on.
        
               | scarmig wrote:
               | Severity of punishment isn't the best way to
               | disincentivize crime. If you have two justice regimes,
               | one where 50% is caught and punished and the other where
               | 25% is but punishment is twice as harsh, the former will
               | be far more effective at decreasing crime.
               | 
               | (Mostly) abolish prisons, and put tons of police officers
               | into the community.
        
               | maxmcd wrote:
               | I disagree. Straight from the wikipedia intro:
               | 
               | > According to a 2014 Human Rights Watch report, "tough-
               | on-crime" laws adopted since the 1980s have filled U.S.
               | prisons with mostly nonviolent offenders.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incarceration_in_the_United
               | _St...
        
               | darawk wrote:
               | It doesn't seem like you read what I said. I'm not
               | defending "tough on crime laws". And I specifically said
               | we should be softer on non-violent crime. So i'm not sure
               | what it is you're responding to.
        
               | bart_spoon wrote:
               | Over half of all individuals in prison in the US are
               | serving for violent offenses. Even if we released every
               | non-violent offender currently incarcerated, the US would
               | still be in the top 15 countries in the world for
               | prisoners per capita.
               | 
               | Everyone railing against the prison system in America
               | seems to have bought into a myth that our prison system
               | is out of control because of harsh sentences for "minor"
               | infractions like drug offenses and theft. The reality is
               | that American society, for whatever reason, is more
               | violent than most other societies in the world. You can
               | try and make the argument that the prison system is at
               | fault, but I think it's more likely that other more
               | fundamental aspects of America are larger factors
               | contributing to it, and attempting to abolish the police
               | or overhaul the prison system are unlikely to do much, as
               | that's simply treating symptoms and not the disease.
        
               | aidenn0 wrote:
               | I'd also like to point out that enforcement also has a
               | disproportionate effect on skilled crime vs. unskilled
               | crime. Pickpocketing is one example; in areas that
               | enforcement against pickpocketing goes up, the crime
               | nearly disappears, because it becomes not worth it to
               | learn the skill (and it's more likely that those who
               | could teach you the skill are in prison).
        
             | ashtonkem wrote:
             | It boggles the mind, but it does at least explain why we
             | got the prison state we have.
        
           | koboll wrote:
           | >prison should be about rehabilitation, not punishment
           | 
           | It should. But simply letting people out is neither.
        
           | iknowstuff wrote:
           | 1. The US has the most incarcerated people per capita in OECD
           | 
           | 2. US prisons seem to be awful. They should be about
           | rehabilitation, but they are focused on punishment.
           | 
           | 3. Because of point 2, we are reluctant to imprison some
           | offenders, in fear of destroying their lives and chances of
           | rehabilitation.
           | 
           | 4. The cash bail system is not the norm across the world. It
           | is weird to only jail people who can't afford to pay.
           | 
           | Are there any attempts to copy Norway's Halden prison in the
           | US?
        
             | xtracto wrote:
             | > 2. US prisons seem to be awful. They should be about
             | rehabilitation, but they are focused on punishment.
             | 
             | Just the other day I watched a video of an interview of an
             | American person who spent time in a prison here in Mexico.
             | He described American prison as "a hotel" when compared to
             | Mexican prisons. There is a really good documentary about a
             | prison in Tijuana [1] showing an example of that.
             | 
             | My point being that prisons in the USA are actually quite
             | good, compared to most prisons in the world. That doesn't
             | make them acceptable. The problem is that the general idea
             | of the prison system in the world just doesn't seem to be
             | working.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqi4ZpR2OWI
        
           | valdiorn wrote:
           | Prisons serve 4 roles; rehabilitation, punishment, deterrent
           | and public safety. How you balance these is done differently
           | in many countries.
           | 
           | The US seems to historically have focused on the punishment
           | aspect most of all.
           | 
           | I'd say deterrent and then rehabilitation are the main ones
           | in the UK.
           | 
           | In Scandinavia it's mostly about rehabilitation and public
           | safety, with punishment being almost non-existent.
        
           | joshuamorton wrote:
           | You're simplifying the opposing position in a way that isn't
           | fully honest. There are at least four purposes incarceration
           | can serve: rehabilitation, retribution, dissuasion, and
           | separation.
           | 
           | Rehabilitation meaning, giving people the tools and resources
           | to avoid recidivism. Retribution being, punishment or justice
           | for the benefit of the victim. Separation being physical
           | removal of people incompatible or dangerous to society.
           | Dissuasion being what you describe, punishment that rational
           | actors will take into account when deciding to take an
           | action.
           | 
           | Pro-rehabilitation people argue that rehabilitation should be
           | the first priority, and retribution the last, with separation
           | there when necessary (think: life sentences for people who
           | murder without remorse) and dissuasion somewhere in the
           | middle. Compare prison to something like an inpatient
           | addiction recovery center, which aims to rehabilitate and
           | separate (although sort of in the reverse way) and how much
           | more constructive that is.
           | 
           | I don't think there's very many people at all (even among
           | like hardcore prison abolitionists) who believe that it's
           | possible to entirely do away with _some_ form of separation
           | of people who are dangerously incompatible with the norms of
           | society. If nothing else, mentally ill people who can exhibit
           | violent behaviors will continue to exist.
           | 
           | All that said, your comment also has very little to do with
           | murder rates. Those don't really correlate a lot with petty
           | crime or even petty violent crime. Someone who makes a living
           | breaking into cars doesn't suddenly jump to murder.
        
           | aaomidi wrote:
           | It's wrong when you focus ONLY on prisons.
           | 
           | That's the thing people miss from the conversations. Those
           | who want to abolish police and prisons aren't just saying
           | shut them down and we're all good. They're saying shut them
           | down and spend money in directly increasing the quality of
           | life for people.
           | 
           | Crimes increase as poverty and class divide increases.
           | Decrease those and you've actually managed to solve the
           | source of the problem, rather than trying to find a solution
           | for the consequence (increase in violent crimes).
        
             | AuryGlenz wrote:
             | Alternatively, people that aren't intelligent and/or have
             | impulsivity issues have a hard time holding down jobs - and
             | those people very well might still commit crimes even after
             | throwing money at them.
             | 
             | A classmate of mine had a successful tile laying business.
             | He got on meth. He put cameras in people's homes. He stole
             | things. He then tied up a girl and raped her all night.
        
               | aaomidi wrote:
               | "people that aren't intelligent and/or have impulsivity
               | issues have a hard time holding down jobs"
               | 
               | So why does the US have more of this? All of these
               | descriptions ignore that America is seemingly the worst
               | place out of everywhere for this? Why?
        
               | s1artibartfast wrote:
               | Poor broken families & communities with low education and
               | few options generate large numbers of such people.
               | 
               | A simple look at the background of violent offenders
               | shows this.
               | 
               | This is partially an economic problem, but also has
               | social roots with multigenerational feedback loops. >50%
               | of violent offenders were physically abused, raped, or
               | neglected by parents. Many were unwanted or abandoned by
               | one or more parents.
        
         | commandlinefan wrote:
         | > I don't think it has to do with defunding the police at all.
         | I do think is has to do with removing the ability of the police
         | to make arrests
         | 
         | Or a mixture of the two.
        
           | felistoria wrote:
           | True
        
       | furyofantares wrote:
       | The first thing that came to my mind wasn't anything to do with
       | defunding the police, nor with releasing more people during the
       | pandemic -- it was that folks in domestic violence situations
       | during lockdowns spent a lot more than 30% additional time with
       | their abuser, and had fewer options if they wished to leave, and
       | fewer opportunities to prepare to leave
        
         | zamalek wrote:
         | Exactly, there are many other explanations. Being stuck at home
         | is also a situation where domestic violence could erupt for the
         | first time. Another one is that a burglar in 2020 would be
         | almost guaranteed to find someone at home.
        
         | rufus_foreman wrote:
         | The pandemic was global, the huge spike in homicide was
         | American. If you look at North and South America, the majority
         | of countries had a decrease in homicide in 2020, most of the
         | ones with an increase had a small increase. This includes
         | countries with some of the highest homicide rates in the world.
         | El Salvador had the highest homicide rate in the world in 2018,
         | during 2020 it decreased almost 45%. El Salvador had a
         | significant response to the pandemic including a 30 day curfew.
         | If lockdowns cause homicide shouldn't it have showed up there,
         | and in the rest of the world?
         | 
         | The only country in the Americas with an increase approaching
         | the US was Chile with a 28% increase. What was going on in
         | Chile?
         | 
         | "Political unrest in the country continued into 2020. Following
         | a period of relative peace amid mobility restrictions
         | associated with the coronavirus pandemic, violent clashes
         | between security forces and protestors resumed a year after
         | demonstrations over high living costs and extreme inequality
         | had first erupted in the capital Santiago."
         | 
         | Chile also has drug trafficking homicides, not sure if that
         | increased in 2020. The fact that two of the countries with
         | massive increases in homicide rates had political unrest at the
         | same time isn't proof, but it's a clue.
        
       | steve76 wrote:
       | After a shooting, notice that you start getting tourists. Most
       | people love murder. It gives them rep.
       | 
       | Nice things, being a parent, are only met with cynicism, even
       | hostile disgust. Build something nice. It will be torn apart
       | today. That's what's honest right? Turning back into an animal.
       | All those things like civility, mutual respect, abstract thought,
       | jurisprudence, that's just phony superstitions, made up by the
       | powerful for oppression. They're too dumb, too white, even though
       | their origins are from Mesopotamia and a Mediterranean antiquity.
       | 
       | George Soros, you are a modern day Don Quixote. You tilt at the
       | windmills of lawless amorality and self-righteous license.
       | Liberty means the powerful acknowledge they really can't force
       | anyone to do anything. Whether to advance or to retreat is always
       | a personal individual decision. How can you transcend conventions
       | when you can't even master the basics of what it means to be
       | human? Here's an idea, if you are going to spend a lot of money
       | and effort only to make things worse, don't do it. Go away. Don't
       | even try to fool yourself. The world is better without you. Life
       | becomes so much nicer and easier once you get far away from all
       | these violent stubborn fools.
        
       | archsurface wrote:
       | I can't read the article, but would think this is a no brainer
       | due to lockdowns - along with increased suicide, divorce,
       | domestic abuse.
        
       | bradlys wrote:
       | lol - so people do people think BLM and defund the police
       | actually had a real effect? I'm confused because black people
       | still get murdered by cops all the time and I haven't seen any
       | metros defund their police to levels _below_ what they were in
       | the last five years. Biggest "defund" I've seen is not increasing
       | their budget again for the 30th year in a row.
       | 
       | Weird political commentators coming into HN.
       | 
       | Article has no details on the reasons either. It has no clue.
       | Just quotes stats. Btw - overall crime was down for the year.
       | Violent crime went up 4-5%. Murder was just way higher and of
       | course is a headline and click getter. I wouldn't be surprised if
       | the majority of the murder was gang related and literally no one
       | except those in gang ridden neighborhoods gives a shit. (So no
       | one because no one cares about the poors)
        
       | bingohbangoh wrote:
       | Here in New York City & New Jersey, bail reform was passed circa
       | 2019. This limited when bail could be imposed on people,
       | including the almost complete elimination of mandatory bail. It
       | is completely up to the District Attorney's discretion.
       | 
       | The idea was that illegal drug dealing shouldn't come with an
       | unusual burden for bail, given that its non-violent. This was
       | heralded as a victory almost immeadiately: there was little
       | change in crime rate within the first months of it being passed.
       | 
       | This seemed really strange to me. Why would you declare victory
       | like this so prematurely? It was just _months_ after it was
       | passed that people said "look no difference, more humane." Such
       | proclamations should be waited at least two years so you could
       | handle any noise.
       | 
       | Also noted in this thread has been the new hyper progressive DAs
       | who don't prosecute unless its really bad. Take SF with Chesa
       | Boudin, who doesn't prosecute thefts under the felony limit
       | (roughly $1000) _at all_.
       | 
       | There's a lot to be said about whether these all form moral
       | hazards but I leave that to one's own interpretation. I will say
       | that people under ~35 never knew a New York City so dangerous you
       | couldn't walk around at night.
        
         | BoorishBears wrote:
         | Why two years? Why do the people interacting with the system on
         | a daily basis not get to make observations on a major change in
         | the system in "just" months?
        
           | bingohbangoh wrote:
           | You can't say "there was no difference in crime" with only a
           | few months of data.
           | 
           | It's too noisy. There isn't enough data.
        
             | lesuorac wrote:
             | > It's too noisy.
             | 
             | [Citation Needed]
        
               | bingohbangoh wrote:
               | I'm surprised two people are debating this.
               | 
               | Statistics over small timescales, e.g. months, will not
               | be as accurate as statistics over large timescales. This
               | isn't disputed (unless it is? I'd be curious if you know
               | people who think statistics with fewer numbers are more
               | accurate than statistics with more numbers.
               | 
               | As for if a few months of data was enough to proclaim
               | victory, NYC's current surge in crime seems evident to me
               | that a few months was not enough data.
               | 
               | As for if this is directly relevant to the surge in
               | crime, I leave that to your own conclusions.
               | 
               | As for why I picked two years, it was an arbitrary guess.
               | My point is that we need more data before announcing
               | "bail reform solved problems."
        
               | redis_mlc wrote:
               | > I'm surprised two people are debating this.
               | 
               | With Marxists, everything is a debate until their side
               | wins.
               | 
               | As we're seeing with the murder rate, Afghanistan and the
               | southern border, that means we all lose as a country.
        
       | mywittyname wrote:
       | > Murder rose over 35 percent in cities with populations over
       | 250,000 that reported full data. It also rose over 40 percent in
       | cities 100,000 to 250,000, and around 25 percent in cities under
       | 25,000.
       | 
       | The difference has been noticeable in my city. Murders within the
       | city used to be kind of common, maybe two or so a month, but such
       | crimes were non-existent in the suburbs. Lots of overdoses, but
       | never murders. Now though, there are multiple murders per week
       | within the city, and a few a month in some of the suburbs.
       | 
       | Scrolling through the local news is just painful. City or
       | suburbs, kids or adults, the news is full of people killed. Stats
       | back up that this is already the second deadliest year in the
       | region, after last year.
       | 
       | And since this will come up. It's a mildly blue city in a very,
       | very red state. We definitely did not defund the police, if
       | anything, we upfunded them in response.
        
         | nickthemagicman wrote:
         | > if anything
         | 
         | Sounds real scientific like.
        
           | mywittyname wrote:
           | So, local governments publish their budgets, so I can see
           | that the increases happened. But they don't publish their
           | reasoning for the increases, thus, I can only guess on the
           | intent.
        
             | jdavis703 wrote:
             | If you read the meeting minutes for the local government
             | meeting you will find their thoughts. If the meeting
             | minutes seem duplicitous, you can always make a FOIA
             | request. You can also look at which candidates receive
             | funding from various local government unions and fraternal
             | orders.
             | 
             | I don't read meeting minutes for most cities, but I do
             | follow my own. Essentially with crime increasing the city
             | council members in my extremely blue city were scared to
             | cut police funding (fearing being blamed for a crime
             | increase). It's nothing nefarious. It just means activists
             | need to do better challenging status quo opinions.
        
               | inetknght wrote:
               | > _If you read the meeting minutes for the local
               | government meeting you will find their thoughts_
               | 
               | Oh yes because government officials never lie on
               | record...
        
               | jdavis703 wrote:
               | Perhaps I misunderstood the grandparent post. But police
               | funding seems like a straightforward, highly politicized
               | issue. It's not like there's some sketchy backroom deals
               | over an innocuous sounding contract.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | GoodJokes wrote:
       | Overall crime is down.
        
       | MathMonkeyMan wrote:
       | A lot of people in this thread seem to have made up their minds
       | about why more people are killing each other in America.
       | 
       | I read the article and still haven't made up my mind. Thought I'd
       | post a comment for anybody thinking the same.
        
         | hackinthebochs wrote:
         | It might just be as simple as people feel more anonymous and
         | thus more emboldened when everyone is wearing masks.
        
         | Lammy wrote:
         | If I may throw my speculation into the ring: I assume it's
         | because people are hurting for money and thus also for
         | necessities like housing, food, and self-determination. My
         | understanding of murder vs homicide was that murder requires
         | intent, but some searching suggests robbery can count as that
         | intent: https://www.danielsonlawfirm.com/murder-manslaughter-
         | homicid...
         | 
         | "A person is guilty of capital murder if the person attempted
         | to commit or did commit a violent crime such as kidnapping,
         | robbery, or arson, and in doing so, the person causes the death
         | of another human being."
         | 
         | Obviously murder is always bad, and I can't just forgive
         | murderers even if I feel sorry for them, but I believe the fear
         | and stress of not being able to survive in this world and
         | economy we've built can push people over all kinds of edges
         | they would otherwise never approach. I refuse to believe that
         | anybody would want to be a murderer in a hypothetical "perfect"
         | world, even the extreme cases like serial killers. I believe
         | there's always an emotional hole trying to be filled.
        
           | rufus_foreman wrote:
           | The robbery rate went down in 2020 along with most other
           | types of violent and non-violent crime. Shootings and
           | homicides were the only types of crime that skyrocketed.
           | 
           | In addition, low wage workers who got laid off made more
           | money than they were making working. And there was a
           | moratorium on evictions.
        
           | AuryGlenz wrote:
           | I would think that people of that sort have had more money
           | than ever with the federal unemployment benefits.
           | 
           | Maybe working keeps people from murdering.
        
           | angelzen wrote:
           | Here is a Vox article citing a book that appears to have
           | looked at LA crime data in some depth. Their thesis is the
           | murder rate has little to do with general criminality rates,
           | but rather with gangs and easy access to loaded guns. I am
           | too tone-deaf to American politics to say how much bias
           | should I read in those sources, but seems an interesting
           | perspective. The book was published in 1999, before the
           | hyper-partisan era, so perhaps that's a good sign.
           | 
           | > "Only a minority of Los Angeles homicides grow out of
           | criminal encounters like robbery and rape," they find
           | (there's no reason to believe the pattern would differ in
           | other cities). So even if it could be shown that American
           | robbery and rape rates are across-the-board higher than those
           | in similar countries (which doesn't appear true today), that
           | still wouldn't explain why America has so many more homicides
           | than other countries. Again, Zimring and Hawkins's LA data
           | was revealing.
           | 
           | > "A far greater proportion of Los Angeles homicides grow out
           | of arguments and other social encounters between
           | acquaintances [than robbery or rape]," they find.
           | 
           | > This is where guns enter the story. The mere presence of
           | firearms, according to Zimring and Hawkins, makes a merely
           | tense situation more likely to turn deadly. When a gang
           | member argues with another gang member, or a robber sticks up
           | a liquor store, there's always a risk that the situation can
           | escalate to some kind of violence. But when people have a
           | handheld tool that is specially engineered for killing
           | efficiently, escalation to murder becomes much, much more
           | likely.
           | 
           | https://www.vox.com/2015/8/27/9217163/america-guns-europe
           | 
           | https://www.amazon.com/Crime-Is-Not-Problem-
           | Violence/dp/0195...
        
         | s1artibartfast wrote:
         | Yeah, but it can be fun to speculate and share information. One
         | interesting theory that I have is that it relates to stimulus
         | checks and Drug crime. A huge amount of money flowed into the
         | economy and it's plausible that The Fallout of drug
         | organizations fighting to capture that influx of cash
        
           | MathMonkeyMan wrote:
           | That is an interesting theory. Along similar lines, with
           | people debating whether policing has anything to do with it,
           | I thought "mafia thinks it can get its hits in now." Seems
           | outlandish, though.
           | 
           | My best guess is that people cooped up and afraid are more
           | likely to kill. I wonder how it went in other countries. I
           | also wonder whether the distribution of methods of murder
           | (gun, etc.) was much different from 2019 (probably not).
        
             | s1artibartfast wrote:
             | Yeah, I think a lot of these theories can be easily tested
             | by looking at the demographics and details of the crimes.
             | For example how many of the murderer than victims
             | cohabitated or how many were drug related
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | > My best guess is that people cooped up and afraid are
             | more likely to kill.
             | 
             | People who are cooped up and _angry_. (I mean, they are
             | afraid, too, but I think the anger is more the cause of
             | murders than the fear.)
             | 
             | What are they angry about? Being cooped up. _Still_ being
             | cooped up. Having their job put on hold, their self-worth
             | threatened, their financial well-being threatened. And they
             | have more time to spend of social media in a filter bubble
             | (from either side), getting more angry about everything
             | else.
        
         | WealthVsSurvive wrote:
         | In the simplest terms, there is more murder because there is
         | less trust. Monetary, personal, institutional, future,
         | material: true or not, the perception is enough.
        
         | themodelplumber wrote:
         | Causality is such a wasteful discussion point. Most of the time
         | you can simply look in a different, non-causality-focused
         | direction and find enough good ideas to design a better
         | outcome. At the very, very least it's a good idea to go multi-
         | model with causality.
        
       | ameminator wrote:
       | Uh, I disagree with a lot of the commenters here. I _do_ think it
       | had something to do with the  "defund the police" movement, the
       | BLM riots and the absolute unwillingness of police agencies
       | around the country to address crime. However, I can also
       | acknowledge that keeping people shut out of their jobs and
       | participation in public life is an easy way to forment social
       | unrest.
        
         | vb6sp6 wrote:
         | Do you have and data or more thoughts on this?
         | 
         | I ask because we tend to associate the police with "fighting
         | crime" where the reality seems to be that they are mostly
         | "responding to crime that has already happened". There will
         | certainly be a few examples of police stopping crime in the
         | moment but you would literally needs cops everywhere to even
         | try to catch a decent percentage of violent crime that is
         | committed.
        
           | drekipus wrote:
           | > mostly "responding to crime that has already happened".
           | 
           | Yes the police, and justice, are to act as a deterrent to
           | crime, moreso than "respond before a crime happened"
           | 
           | I highly suspect that the respect for the law has dropped,
           | and with ideas of defunding the police, there's probably less
           | resources as well.
           | 
           | This is what was asked for.
        
             | vb6sp6 wrote:
             | Is there data to suggest any of this?
        
               | drekipus wrote:
               | Data to suggest that the law is meant as a deterrent or
               | data to suggest my suspicions?
               | 
               | (Edit: because I don't think "data" can help you in
               | either of these situations)
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | Either way. Data. (It's not data only if it supports one
               | side. Either it's data no matter which side it supports,
               | or it's not data.)
        
       | joelbondurant wrote:
       | Good, most USA thugs need to be bulldozed into mass graves.
        
       | nickthemagicman wrote:
       | I wonder if anyone really thought this whole 'defunding the
       | police' idea through.
        
         | lm28469 wrote:
         | Defunding the police is about taking away their military grade
         | equipment, nothing to do with your everyday murder.
         | 
         | I find it way more likely, and interesting, that covid had a
         | major role in the rise of homicides. The lockdowns/restrictions
         | and their social / mental health impacts: people losing their
         | loved ones, jobs, financial/mental struggles, domestic
         | violence, &c. You can live in the most policed country in the
         | world, if you're locked down with your abusive/violent partner
         | for X months violence will happen
        
           | nickthemagicman wrote:
           | > Defunding the police is about taking away their military
           | grade equipment, nothing to do with your everyday murder.
           | 
           | You're mixing up defunding the police with demilitarizing the
           | police.
           | 
           | Two different topics.
        
           | spookthesunset wrote:
           | We are gonna see the effects of these lockdowns and
           | restrictions play out for years. We've got an entire
           | generation of kids growing up that have missed more than a
           | year of school and still aren't back to "normal school. Wait
           | until they become adults!
           | 
           | The sad part is plenty of people warned about this sort of
           | thing but they were (and still are) censored, bullied,
           | harassed, gaslit, you name it.
           | 
           | This myopic fixation on exactly one single disease to the
           | exclusion of literally everything else in life is gonna go
           | down as one of the worst public policy fuckups of all time.
        
         | aaron-santos wrote:
         | You might be surprised to learn that there are even whole books
         | about the topic complete with reading groups, speaking events,
         | and discourse.
        
         | vharuck wrote:
         | As the article mentions, murder rates rose across the country.
         | And not many cities actually had official support, let alone
         | took action, for defunding or restructuring police forces.
         | 
         | Honestly, blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a
         | lazy oversimplification. Even if cops decided to patrol or
         | investigate less because of that movement, I wouldn't expect a
         | massive spike in the murder rate. Sure, people might pick
         | pockets or rob houses if they think nobody's watching, but
         | murder?
        
           | darthnebula wrote:
           | >>Honestly, blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is
           | a lazy oversimplification
           | 
           | No, I think ignoring the facts is clinging to your ideology
           | at all costs. Not many cities had official support? You can't
           | be serious.
        
           | angelzen wrote:
           | Do you seriously propose that 'defund the police' has no
           | effect whatsoever on the murder rate? Here is a list of
           | largest 100 American cities by party affiliation. Feel free
           | to research whether political affiliation of the city
           | leadership, thus propensity to embrace 'defund the police'
           | policies, has anything to do with the spike in murders.
           | 
           | Unfortunately I am not aware of professional studies of the
           | matter. Perhaps there will never be. Given an academic system
           | that is 99% affiliated with one political party, difficult to
           | find people willing to scuttle their careers by researching
           | topics that might place policies associated with that
           | political party in anything but the most positive light.
           | 
           | https://ballotpedia.org/Party_affiliation_of_the_mayors_of_t.
           | ..
           | 
           | Edit: Here is a chart showing sharp decline in 'officers in
           | service' numbers in a progressive West Coast city that
           | embraced 'defund the police':
           | 
           | https://www.capitolhillseattle.com/2020/10/after-
           | september-s...
           | 
           | And the spike in murders in the same city:
           | 
           | https://www.seattlepi.com/local/seattlenews/article/2020-cri.
           | ..
           | 
           | > Crime dashboard data shows that 52 homicides occurred in
           | 2020 compared to 35 in 2019 -- an increase of 48.57%.
        
             | kenjackson wrote:
             | Has there been any data that indicates that policing has an
             | impact on murder rates ever? Even the murders in the CHAZ
             | in Seattle at the height of defund the police were much
             | more spur of the moment incidents. Not the type of thing
             | someone is likely to reconsider if the police force were
             | doubled.
             | 
             | And given that the murder rate increase was national and
             | not regional, it seems much more likely that it was
             | nationally impacted. Maybe something like a pandemic which
             | led to social stresses, economic stresses, and increases in
             | gun purchases.
             | 
             | Another city in Washington, Spokane, saw about a tripling
             | in homicides in 2020 and there was no "defund the police"
             | movement in that city, no reduction in police force -- and
             | also has a Republican mayor and a generally much more
             | conservative take than Seattle.
             | 
             | You're simply reaching for a narrative rather than looking
             | at the data.
        
             | pseudalopex wrote:
             | Seattle cut less than 1% of the 2020 police budget in
             | August.[1] About as much as they increased it from 2019.[2]
             | And your source for the murder spike said other violent
             | crimes decreased.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-race-
             | protests-seat...
             | 
             | [2] https://www.seattle.gov/documents/Departments/FinanceDe
             | partm...
        
               | angelzen wrote:
               | https://apnews.com/article/seattle-police-government-and-
               | pol...
               | 
               | > Over 200 Seattle police officers quit amid nation
               | protests, April 28, 2021
               | 
               | > Police Chief Adrian Diaz said Tuesday that the
               | department is in a "staffing crisis" after more than 180
               | police officers quit last year and another 66 officers
               | left their jobs so far this year, according to police
               | data. "We are at record lows in the city right now. I
               | have about 1,080 deployable officers. This is the lowest
               | I've seen our department," Diaz told KING-TV.
               | 
               | Why would the city lose 20% of its police force in 2
               | years? It is a mystery. What we know beyond reasonable
               | doubt:
               | 
               | * The loss in deployable officers is not related to the
               | City Council publicly embracing 'defund the police'.
               | 
               | * The loss in deployable officers has very little to do
               | with the mysterious spike in murders that occurred during
               | the same time period.
               | 
               | Obviously anyone that raises absolutely unfounded
               | concerns around those points is just exhibiting hysteric
               | lazy thinking.
        
             | derstander wrote:
             | > Do you seriously propose that 'defund the police' has no
             | effect whatsoever on the murder rate?
             | 
             | This is a straw man of the parent's position. They say "
             | blaming it on the "Defund the police" movement is a lazy
             | oversimplification", not that it had "no effect
             | whatsoever".
             | 
             | It certainly seems plausible to me that having loads of
             | people -- particularly those in lower socio-economic strata
             | - without employment for an extended period of time could
             | certainly contribute to crime rate increases.
             | 
             | There's no need for straw-manning/hysterics here, we can
             | have a measured conversation or debate.
        
               | angelzen wrote:
               | Compare:
               | 
               | > Honestly, blaming it on the "Defund the police"
               | movement is a lazy oversimplification
               | 
               | Alternatively:
               | 
               | > While the 'defund the police' movement is likely making
               | matters worse, there are other potential confounding
               | causes. For example, having loads of people --
               | particularly those in lower socio-economic strata -
               | without employment for an extended period of time [...]
               | 
               | I am all for the 2nd approach, but I will object to the
               | 1st.
        
               | xmprt wrote:
               | Your second approach is just a different way of saying
               | the first.
        
             | nickthemagicman wrote:
             | Thanks for those references.
             | 
             | Being from New Orleans, a majority black city, its
             | absolutely crazy to me that this is even a debate.
             | 
             | I think these BLM people seriously believe that police do
             | more harm than good in black communities.
             | 
             | And they think that there's no co-orelation between funding
             | and performance for the police.
        
               | angelzen wrote:
               | There is a tragedy of the commons at play, of which
               | 'defund the police' is but the last installment. The
               | local Seattle prosecutor was notorious for years for not
               | prosecuting crime. He recently lost his primary and will
               | likely be replaced from the left by a true 'defund the
               | police' candidate. Seattle hasn't even experienced
               | 'defund the police' to its fullest extent, the worst is
               | yet to come.
               | 
               | > A repeat offender who was released from the King County
               | Jail last weekend after attacking a security guard in
               | Seattle was re-arrested a few hours later for a brutal
               | attack that ended with that victim being hospitalized in
               | intensive care, according to court documents and police.
               | 
               | https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/assault-suspect-
               | leaves-...
               | 
               | https://www.teenvogue.com/story/abolitionist-candidates-
               | runn...
        
               | mijkal wrote:
               | 'Defund the police' means we reallocate the every-
               | increasing funding for armed agents who want for nothing
               | (not unlike the US military -- look at the municipal
               | budget allocations for police vs schools etc) and invest
               | those funds into:
               | 
               | 1) Alternative first responder services, such as mental
               | health experts to deescalate incidents that far too often
               | end in tragedy 2) Invest in preventative measures to
               | ensure communities and society at-large is healthy:
               | provide educational, medical, and economic opportunities
               | to materially improve people's lives
               | 
               | And more generally, police in America are long overdue
               | for major reform. 'Qualified immunity' has let officers
               | use violent and lethal force with impunity. They are
               | supposed to be the trained professionals, yet their bar
               | for use of force is _lower_ than an untrained civilian's.
               | The oversight boards are a joke, with no teeth to
               | actually hold police accountable. It's crazy when you
               | think about all the principles espoused by America re:
               | limited gov't and power to the People yet we have this
               | superset class above the law they are meant to enforce. I
               | expect them to be held to a higher standard, and to
               | actually know the laws and people's rights so as not to
               | infringe on them without consequence.
               | 
               | And from talking with a (civilian) criminologist inside
               | SPD who studies this up close, the mentality of cops is
               | disturbing -- very 'us-vs-them' -- they aren't 'peace
               | officers' who 'protect and serve', but are above us and
               | demand 'respect' and unquestioning compliance above all
               | else. They're the high school bullies equipped with guns
               | and a badge. Their training by US/Israeli ex-military is
               | disturbing because they react to all of us a potential
               | mortal threats rather than as a member of a common
               | community. There's a reason we had Posse Comitatus, but
               | now we've militarized police at the local level, and
               | surprise -- they act like it.
               | 
               | I enthusiastically am voting for NTK in the general. The
               | fact is heavily-funded and well-armed police for decades
               | _has not_ and cannot improve the situation anymore than
               | the military occupation in Afghanistan did. Crime is a
               | symptom of more systemic issues, particularly poverty and
               | loss of faith in public institutions. In short,
               | hopelessness and despair.
        
             | renewiltord wrote:
             | That's nothing. You should see the graph of pirates vs
             | global warming.
             | 
             | To think Bluebeard was rescuing us from the deleterious
             | effects of too much CO2 in the air!
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | The graph of illegal immigrants to crime is crazy too!
        
             | curriculum wrote:
             | As a counterpoint to your example of Seattle, Republican-
             | led Fort Worth saw it's homicide numbers increase by 59% in
             | 2020 (even more than Seattle) despite increasing their
             | police budget over the same period:
             | 
             | https://www.star-
             | telegram.com/news/local/crime/article248169...
        
               | Proven wrote:
               | 1) You could also find some not so random city where
               | murders decreased. I don't think anyone has any doubts
               | where murders went up and why.
               | 
               | 2) From your article it shows it could be due to a very
               | similar reason (the difference is here they didn't
               | intentionally cut down on it).
               | 
               | > Manny Ramirez, the president of a union representing
               | officers, has said that a decrease in proactive policing
               | is a factor.
        
           | floor2 wrote:
           | Crime doesn't really work the way you're suggesting.
           | 
           | Someone robbing houses is directly going to cause a massive
           | uptick in violent crime. What if the resident is home and
           | tries to defend themselves? The victim (of the home invasion)
           | might shoot the invader in self-defense but be charged with
           | murder anyway. Or the robber might kill the homeowner during
           | a struggle even if they only intended to steal property
           | initially.
           | 
           | Plus, people aren't inherently "good" and "bad" or "criminals
           | and non-criminals". There's complexity to how being a victim
           | of crime can lead a person to commit other crimes, how "non-
           | violent" crimes can quickly become violent, etc.
           | 
           | Blaming "Defund the police" is kinda short-sighted, but
           | certainly there have been massive shifts in how police see
           | themselves, their jobs and their communities and how people
           | see and interact with the police, and that those changes are
           | part of the cascade of changes that lead to increases in
           | murder rates.
        
           | nickthemagicman wrote:
           | No actually you're wrong.
           | 
           | Believe it or not, there's a direct co-orelation between
           | police having resources available to fight crime and reduced
           | crime!
           | 
           | Crazy right?
           | 
           | https://archive.is/5fIqM
           | 
           | But we can't eliminate the possibility that all those
           | thousands of new murders were all done by racist police
           | officers.
           | 
           | Has anyone looked into this?
           | 
           | Could be a huge story.
           | 
           | Wouldn't want anyone to get the crazy idea that police
           | actually do good things for black communities.
        
             | eurasiantiger wrote:
             | How does that article prove your claim?
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | Well I'll let the headline of the Washington post article
               | do the 'splainin'
               | 
               | "Cities Reverse Defunding the Police Amid Rising Crime"
        
               | eurasiantiger wrote:
               | Your proposition:
               | 
               | 1. Cities increase police funding in response to
               | increased crime
               | 
               | 2. Therefore, decreasing police funding increases crime.
               | 
               | However, 2. does not follow from 1, since many other
               | factors affect crime rates, from legislation to
               | enforcement and from social issues to societal issues.
               | 
               | In fact, even the inverse of 2. does not follow from 1:
               | increasing police funding does not decrease crime rates.
               | 
               | If you disagree, please provide an academic source for
               | the direct causal relationship between police funding and
               | crime rate.
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | There's academia and then there's real life and in real
               | life the leaders are realizing Defunding the Police is a
               | stupid idea.
               | 
               | Can you explain why these leaders with highly paid staff
               | of analysts who have way more knowledge and data, are
               | doing this?
               | 
               | EDIT: while you're downvoting me, be sure to downvote the
               | leaders and news media who lied to you as well.
               | 
               | """In New York City, Mayor Bill de Blasio said he would
               | reinstate $92 million for a new precinct after scrapping
               | the project last summer. The mayor of Baltimore, who led
               | efforts as a city councilman to cut the police budget by
               | $22 million last year, recently proposed a $27 million
               | increase.
               | 
               | After attacks on Asian-Americans and a rise in homicides
               | in Oakland, Calif., city lawmakers in April restored $3.3
               | million of the $29 million in police cuts, and the mayor
               | is now proposing to increase the department's budget by
               | $24 million. Los Angeles's mayor has proposed an increase
               | of about $50 million after the city cut $150 million from
               | its police department last year."""
        
           | iammisc wrote:
           | This is the most disingenuous form of misinformation
           | imaginable. While certainly true that murder is up
           | everywhere, it is not true that it is up the same amount.
           | 
           | As the article says, murder is up more in cities with pop
           | >100k. Under 25k, the murder rate rose 25%. In larger cities,
           | up to 40%.
           | 
           | That is a substantial difference.
           | 
           | No one is claiming that some places had fewer murders than
           | before. People are claiming that policies make differences
           | (in this case, population size is a good correlate with
           | party).
        
             | xmprt wrote:
             | Why are you correlating population size with party when you
             | can literally look up the voting records of cities?
             | 
             | What's more likely?
             | 
             | 1. High population size implies Democratic party policies
             | implies less police funding implies higher murder rate
             | 
             | OR 2. High population size implies higher murder rate
             | (potentially because of higher poor populations or more
             | population density or many other reasons that aren't
             | because of party).
        
               | iammisc wrote:
               | > High population size implies Democratic party policies
               | implies less police funding implies higher murder rate
               | 
               | Democratic party politics are correlated with higher
               | population size. This is not controversial.
               | 
               | A high population size ought to correlate with more
               | overall murders, but a similar murder rate. Moreover, in
               | many countries, urban areas are less violent.
        
         | ransom1538 wrote:
         | IMHO. This wasn't about cities defunding police as it was about
         | DEMORALIZING the police. People will cite: "Look the crime rate
         | was country wide so it couldn't be the result of specific
         | cities defunding." But no. It is that the policing forces are
         | demoralized nation wide. They do less patrolling, less
         | aggressive tactics, less pull overs, less arrests etc. Police
         | are more timid now. This is the result. I expect it to become
         | much worse - with SF city the goal nation wide.
        
         | leet_thow wrote:
         | Read the comments at r/Portland to witness people realizing the
         | law of unintended consequences in realtime.
        
           | felistoria wrote:
           | People said that instagram page Portlandlookslikeshit was an
           | exaggeration. Just drive through Portland for a few hours.
           | The city is completely trashed. Even just driving through on
           | I-5 you see trash all over the sides of the road.
        
             | xrd wrote:
             | You don't see any improvement at all over the past few
             | months specifically?
             | 
             | I live in the suburbs and still visit family in Portland.
             | Over the past few months, I've seen great improvements.
             | There are no longer massive camps along 205, now it seems
             | like a few sprinkled camps with four or five people, every
             | half mile or so. I walked in Oak's Bottom (my kids attend
             | Trackers school) and I saw three park rangers (not police)
             | patrolling the park, querying people who camp there. I did
             | not see any garbage inside the park at all, and this is a
             | very dense forested park. I only saw one tent (I know there
             | are more) but I do think the city has really made a
             | concerted effort to break up large camps, remove garbage
             | aggressively, and move people into temporary housing.
             | 
             | My point is that progress is being made. But, I often
             | wonder if I'm not seeing all neighborhoods and if this is
             | just happening in the wealthier neighborhoods. I do feel
             | like the places in SE and NE that I go to, there are
             | visible differences from even a few months back.
             | 
             | Maybe you feel like this is not the real story; if so, I'm
             | interested in hearing that. I've been worried about my city
             | for years, but I do feel like we are finally grappling with
             | it as a society and making progress.
        
               | felistoria wrote:
               | I don't typically drive on 205 to be honest, but I-5 is
               | still covered in garbage and downtown is unbelievably
               | bad. Really sad to see and I avoid downtown as much as
               | possible because of it. It's been a couple weeks since
               | I've drove through but I am going through tomorrow so I
               | guess I'll see if there has been any improvement.
        
           | commandlinefan wrote:
           | Are you sure these consequences were entirely unintended?
        
         | dpweb wrote:
         | I don't see more policing or better militarization as the
         | answer. These crimes are symptoms of core problems, that run
         | like currents through society.
         | 
         | We're not served well by the constant prideful "we're the
         | greatest country in the world". There are some wonderful things
         | to be proud of.
         | 
         | However, the fact is, we're a rather violent society. We're a
         | society that loves alcohol. We're a very insecure people. We
         | don't get to the root of the problems. They are in the psyche.
        
           | inglor_cz wrote:
           | I am not an American, so I do not have a dog in this fight.
           | 
           | But the bridge between alcohol and insecurity on one side and
           | murder on the other that you seem to erect seems rather
           | uncertain to me. Scandinavians drink like fish, suffer from a
           | lot of seasonal depression, but their rates of murder aren't
           | that high. Nor are rates of murder in rural USA regions
           | originally settled by Scandinavians.
           | 
           | Murder seems to be strongly correlated with gang activity in
           | the U.S.
        
             | felistoria wrote:
             | I think it has to do with gangs and and high rate of drug
             | addiction in this area. I live in the Pacific NW where
             | heroin/meth is running rampant and homelessness is
             | everywhere. The city just looks trashed now.
        
               | codehawke wrote:
               | Having one party in control of most major cities, where
               | most crime is, for 50+ years now is working wonders.
        
               | c0nducktr wrote:
               | And yet that party is _still_ preferable to the
               | alternative, according to the voters. Funny how that
               | goes.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | One of the really bad things about two party systems is
               | that people start to consider their voting record a part
               | of their personal identity. That leads to massive
               | ossification of voting patterns in individuals.
               | 
               | In a multiparty system, it is much more normal to be a
               | swing voter.
        
               | inglor_cz wrote:
               | One thing that puzzles me a bit about the U.S. is
               | nonexistence of viable _local_ parties. Something similar
               | to the Scottish National Party in the UK or Freie Wahler
               | in Bavaria.
               | 
               | How come that the entire political scene on all levels
               | collapses into just two poles, with the predictable
               | result that many places are _de facto_ one party places?
               | 
               | Why doesn't America have local Ross Perots in various
               | corners of the country, starting their own political
               | parties specific for one place only?
        
               | ferdowsi wrote:
               | We do. The Socialist Alternative are a viable party in
               | places like Seattle, local politicians often run as
               | independents aligned with organizations like DSA, etc.
        
           | mc32 wrote:
           | It surely doesn't help that politicians sow division to
           | weaken and conquer their constituencies and vilify each other
           | creating animosity and discord. Instead of trying to unite
           | our people they want to foment differences.
           | 
           | People take cues.
           | 
           | Moreover, we prefer to fix other people's problems (Iraq,
           | Afghanistan) to fixing our internal problems.
           | 
           | We see this with charities too. Charities eagerly want to
           | help out people who get whacked by natural disasters
           | overseas. That's great and I'm sure those people appreciate
           | it. Where are they they in the US taking care of our
           | homeless, our veterans, our unemployed?
           | 
           | They give more shits about people losing their jobs in
           | Timbuktu than they do about our own citizens losing jobs due
           | to outsourcing and poor government policies.
        
             | edmundsauto wrote:
             | Wow, this is all over the place. A few thoughts:
             | 
             | 1. We didn't fix any problems in Iraq or Afghanistan. We
             | made things worse. The reason was not really a preference,
             | it was revenge, bad info, and protecting strategic
             | reserves.
             | 
             | 2. Charities do work locally. They also work
             | internationally. If I am passionate about a specific issue,
             | or about helping as many humans as possible, it's not clear
             | that it's preferable to only help others after you've fixed
             | all your internal problems.
             | 
             | I definitely agree that people take cues from their
             | leaders. That's why the investigation into January 6 is
             | such a big deal.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | Do you remember when everyone claimed Hunter Biden's
               | laptop with compromising information was Russian
               | disinformation and now the WaPo relented and says that
               | yeah, it's legit?
               | 
               | Where is the pushback against those lies and collusion
               | between the media and a candidate. It's okay if 10 or 30%
               | just ignore something because it's not their bag, but 90%
               | of the media refusing to cover it and denying it and all
               | the fact checkers in cahoots?
               | 
               | I think that's a big deal.
        
               | nickthemagicman wrote:
               | If it fits people's ideology they don't hold it
               | accountable.
               | 
               | The desire for truth is over.
               | 
               | Its a war of ideology now, which has never ended well
               | historically.
        
               | edmundsauto wrote:
               | From my perspective, I think it's a big deal to get the
               | details right, without needing to obviously exaggerate
               | ("everyone claimed ... disinformation", WaPo says "it's
               | legit" [some is, some remains unproven], 90% of the media
               | [by what measure? Certainly not reach, as Fox has a
               | significant minority of the market], "all the fact
               | checkers in cahoots" [there does not appear to be any
               | evidence of cahooting]).
               | 
               | You may have some good points, but it's unlikely anyone
               | will dig through your screed to be influenced by your
               | ideas. (But thank you for at least making it short!)
        
               | angelzen wrote:
               | Anecdote. I have observed the works of a West Coast
               | church for a few years. The walls are plastered with
               | photos of charity work in Africa, Asia or Caribbeans.
               | Every other week stories from far away lands makes into
               | the sermon. Was an interesting recent moment when the
               | pastor had the public realization that perhaps spending
               | some of that effort in the local community is long past
               | due.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | It's surprising to me how this is when the whole point of
               | a church is to serve the local community and those that
               | want to help overseas have "missions" which some people
               | malign as semi imperialistic.
               | 
               | My personal view is help your local people first (no
               | matter where you are) and others next. If you want to do
               | good somewhere else the best way to do it is not via
               | feelgood "remittances" but by going there and putting in
               | the hard work, hiring locals, teaching locals, etc., so
               | they may become self sufficient and not need 'charity'.
        
               | angelzen wrote:
               | Having lived in both poor and rich countries, I never saw
               | a fervor for helping far away lands in a poor country.
               | The are simply not enough resources to mount effective
               | overseas charity campaigns.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | And they should not. They should help themselves before
               | anyone else. Now, there are wealthy congregation is some
               | places and surely they have enough funds to help locals
               | in need as well as others -that's fine, but do it in a
               | helpful way, don't just send money and call it a day, and
               | also help your people in another state of province if the
               | locals they're in has all their needs met. Don't just go
               | for "exoticism".
        
               | angelzen wrote:
               | Sometimes I wonder if this is selective pressure. The
               | impact of charity work overseas, if at all affordable, is
               | much higher than the often thankless charity work at
               | home. People gradually steer into the more impactful
               | work, which happens to be overseas by simple economic
               | reasons.
        
         | throwaway0a5e wrote:
         | Plenty of people have thought it through in great detail over
         | the last 30yr.
         | 
         | Those people are mostly not being listened to because small
         | government is a dirty word to most of the people currently
         | pushing to defund the police and because viewing crime through
         | an economic lens is out of vogue in favor of a racial one and
         | people who are seriously studying minimum viable policing
         | historically tend to be from one of those two camps.
        
         | drbojingle wrote:
         | I wonder if police ever actually stopped murders from
         | happening. Do you have any evidence that they did and have now
         | stopped doing so? Police usually show up to crime scenes, not
         | murders in progress. It's a murder after all, not a siege.
        
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