[HN Gopher] The Housing Theory of Everything
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The Housing Theory of Everything
Author : huevosabio
Score : 13 points
Date : 2021-09-14 20:55 UTC (2 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.worksinprogress.co)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.worksinprogress.co)
| aazaa wrote:
| A theory of everything needs to account for everything. This
| article doesn't even demonstrate that a housing shortage exists,
| and it completely ignores the unfavorable demographics of the
| aging boomers and lack of replacement demand.
|
| https://reventureconsulting.com/the-myth-of-the-us-housing-s...
|
| High prices are not by themselves evidence of a shortage. High
| prices can, for example, be caused by ultra-loose monetary
| policies that encourage housing market speculators to soak up
| supply. This condition can readily unwind, although few prior to
| 2009 would have considered the possibility.
| dilap wrote:
| Right; not an expert in the topic, but it seems to make sense
| that super low interest rates + the fed actively buying
| morgtage-backed securities would pump up housing prices.
| (Indeed, I think propping up asset prices is the idea? Though
| I'm confused why this is considered a good thing.)
|
| Someone who knows more about this, please weigh in...
| hardtke wrote:
| > Average New York City metropolitan area house prices are up
| 706% since 1980 (or 376% more than US consumer prices, and 326%
| more than US wages). For San Francisco the rise is 932%.
|
| Mortgage interest rates were 14% in 1980, they are less than 3%
| now. This explains much (but not all) of the rise in the nominal
| cost of housing compared to wages. When people bought $50,000
| houses in the nicest parts of Palo Alto in 1975, other people
| thought they were crazy because of the interest rates.
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