[HN Gopher] Understanding onset of hot streaks in artistic, cult...
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       Understanding onset of hot streaks in artistic, cultural and
       scientific careers
        
       Author : bookofjoe
       Score  : 41 points
       Date   : 2021-09-13 14:18 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nature.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nature.com)
        
       | Jerrrry wrote:
       | "Hot hands are a myth," said a statician, who then spent 200
       | pages redefining what it meant, until it existed.
        
         | protomyth wrote:
         | This is one of those things that keep getting quoted but it
         | really shows the difference between someone in academia and
         | people who use the term in practice. As you say, the "hot hand"
         | is only a myth when you get to redefine the meaning.
         | 
         | It is amazing looking at a stat sheet from when you felt
         | amazing versus when you felt like crap or even average. It is
         | basically the sports equivalent of a programmer being in the
         | zone.
        
           | jimhefferon wrote:
           | https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2015/07/09/hey-
           | guess-... is interesting.
        
       | smaddox wrote:
       | Quite a clever approach to quantifying and collecting evidence
       | for a fairly intuitive hypothesis.
        
         | kfarr wrote:
         | Agreed it's intuitive, but also this research provides (for me
         | at least) more support that this type of "problem space
         | exploration" is not necessarily procrastination, but it's
         | instead a key and necessary component in creative productivity.
        
         | hyperbovine wrote:
         | > We find that across all three domains, individuals tend to
         | explore diverse styles or topics before their hot streak, but
         | become notably more focused after the hot streak begins.
         | Crucially, hot streaks appear to be associated with neither
         | exploration nor exploitation behavior in isolation, but a
         | particular sequence of exploration followed by exploitation,
         | where the transition from exploration to exploitation closely
         | traces the onset of a hot streak.
         | 
         | "Intuitive" is putting it mildly...
        
       | abetusk wrote:
       | Some relevant quotes:
       | 
       | """ Building on recent advances in computer vision we use a
       | transfer-learning approach to construct an embedding for artworks
       | using deep neural networks. We generate a 200-dimensional
       | embedding of each artwork and identify art styles through
       | clusters on the 200-dimensional embedding space, allowing us to
       | trace the evolution of art styles over the course of their
       | careers """
       | 
       | """ We find that when exploitation occurs by itself, not preceded
       | by exploration, the chance that such episodes coincide with a hot
       | streak is significantly lower than expected, not higher, across
       | all three domains. """
       | 
       | """ ... we find that when the episode of exploration is not
       | followed by exploitation, the chance for such exploration to
       | coincide with a hot streak again reduces significantly. """
        
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       (page generated 2021-09-13 23:01 UTC)