[HN Gopher] One in Three Americans Already Had Covid-19 by the E...
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       One in Three Americans Already Had Covid-19 by the End of 2020
        
       Author : aazaa
       Score  : 13 points
       Date   : 2021-09-12 20:56 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.publichealth.columbia.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.publichealth.columbia.edu)
        
       | mrkramer wrote:
       | And for how long COVID antibodies will last? In the case of
       | Spanish flu they lasted 100 years.[0]
       | 
       | [0] https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/flu-
       | survi...
        
       | rossdavidh wrote:
       | "The study is the first to comprehensively quantify the overall
       | burden and characteristics of COVID-19 in the U.S. during
       | 2020..."
       | 
       | Well, it's not been widely reported, but if you dig through the
       | cdc.gov website you can find their estimate of the multiple
       | (actual cases / PCR-confirmed cases), which has been between 4
       | and 5 (closer to 4) for a while now (higher in early 2020). It
       | doesn't get the press it should, but it's not a new finding.
       | 
       | https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#serology-surveilla...
        
       | bluepoint wrote:
       | At about that time there were 400k deaths, which implies an
       | infection fatality rate of 0.4%. This is consistent with various
       | studies I ran across that point to a 0.2%, 0.3% fatality rate.
        
         | pedrocr wrote:
         | ~1% with good care was closer last time I checked. There was a
         | good paper explaining differences between locations were mostly
         | because of demographics and the total result was in that range.
         | 0.4% is the rate of total NYC residents who have already died
         | for example. So for that to be the IFR NYC would have had to
         | have 100% infection of its population. Not impossible but seems
         | unlikely.
         | 
         | Without good care, like when hospitals get overwhelmed by a
         | wave, 3%+ was likely. But that heavily depends on the exact
         | pressure and maybe we've gotten better at treating it anyway.
        
         | petermcneeley wrote:
         | So about twice as bad as the flu?
         | https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2017-2018.htm
        
           | [deleted]
        
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       (page generated 2021-09-12 23:02 UTC)