[HN Gopher] Ford Hires Away Executive Leading Apple's Car Project
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       Ford Hires Away Executive Leading Apple's Car Project
        
       Author : barredo
       Score  : 91 points
       Date   : 2021-09-07 19:03 UTC (3 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.bloomberg.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.bloomberg.com)
        
       | while1fork wrote:
       | I don't understand why Apple would want to enter the automotive
       | manufacturing business. It's so far-afield from computers, mobile
       | screens, and accessories. TVs, home automation, VR glasses, smart
       | home gym, and audio equipment seem much closer to the product mix
       | than something random like a lawnmower, car, or business jet.
        
       | michelb wrote:
       | I keep thinking that the 'car' project is just one of apple's
       | many experiments to find/figure out a product but this one is
       | hard to keep invisible because they need more physical space for
       | it. So nobody really knows what it is but you get these glimpses.
       | It must be extremely frustrating that they can't contain it as
       | they did with the smaller hardware.
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | IMO people's fascination with tech secrecy is also waning in
         | recent years. Apple's "one more thing" reveals used to get
         | worldwide press, now people prefer Elon tweeting Tesla &
         | SpaceX's hardware and software prototypes literally years
         | before launch.
        
           | Isthatablackgsd wrote:
           | TBF, it is not because of the tech secrecy. It is more of
           | they don't have a new toys to show, I mean something that
           | stands out. Tesla and SpaceX are new and those toys that the
           | public want to see. They want to see progress, they don't
           | want to see same old things.
        
         | jillesvangurp wrote:
         | Apple has been flirting with this topic for quite long and are
         | obviously not succeeding in hitting a formula that makes sense
         | for them, which would be a mass produced premium priced vehicle
         | that people with too much money would prefer over the likes of
         | expensive sports cars, teslas, and what not. It's both obvious
         | and stupendously hard if you've never produced a car before.
         | Tesla is basically the Apple of cars already. They raised the
         | bar quit high for Apple to break into that market and not look
         | like an also ran type product (i.e. like most of Tesla's
         | competition right now).
         | 
         | Rumor has it they were talking to Kia at some point. That does
         | not instill a lot of confidence. Fine cars, but sort of the
         | equivalent of the beige boxes that Apple once competed against
         | when IBM PCs were a thing. Munro did a review on a Kia the
         | other day and the lack of enthusiasm for it was quite obvious.
         | It's not that it was a bad car (he actually liked it, just not
         | for himself) but just a bit boring, bland, and cheap. Alright
         | if that's what you can afford. But kind of not the market Apple
         | is after. Partnering with Kia would be the equivalent of
         | letting Compaq or Dell take care of producing the imac in 1999.
         | It took Steve Jobs to figure out that mess. Better beige boxes
         | weren't the answer and he pretty much axed that first thing
         | into his second round at Apple and rebooted what is now the
         | most valuable company on the planet.
         | 
         | You can see the dilemma here. They basically lack internal
         | skills/knowledge for building a car manufacturing operation and
         | partnering is alien to them. So, how do you create a car with a
         | screen and some fancy Apple experience when you've basically
         | never build a car and your entire vision revolves around what's
         | on that screen? Perhaps they should just outright buy their own
         | car company and get it over with. They are certainly rich
         | enough and there's no lack of suitable companies struggling to
         | survive but yet still competent enough to innovate. I'm
         | surprised they haven't already. Allegedly, they opted out of
         | acquiring Tesla when they had the chance.
        
           | Sophistifunk wrote:
           | Bollocks. Kias might be made with cheaper materials than
           | Tesla, and they're not as fast, not as "high tech", but you
           | know what? THEY FIT TOGETHER. Tesla isn't the Apple of cars,
           | it's Alienware.
        
             | mulmen wrote:
             | TBH the interior quality of Tesla has never impressed me.
             | It has always had a more "Kia" (haven't been in one from
             | the last 10 years) or Chevy vibe than a premium brand.
        
           | ksec wrote:
           | I will speculate. The initial rumors of Apple wanted to build
           | a car themselves were not true. It is typical of Apple in
           | their path finding to have expertise and knowledge of how it
           | is built, and how to automate the whole thing along with
           | industry experts. Once they figure this out they start
           | partnering. This is vastly different to most other brands
           | where the whole process is outsourced.
           | 
           | Then the next part is simply Apple thinking their core value
           | has to be experience and AV. Since AV is still years if not
           | decades away. They are only thing left will be in car
           | experience. But is experience really enough to sell cars?
           | 
           | Part of the advantage Apple has with AV is that it requires
           | lots of custom silicons. It is literally a giant iPhone with
           | lots more sensors running on battery around the cities. And
           | Apple has the expertise and scale over pretty much all other
           | players.
           | 
           | But I still dont believe AV will be a thing any time soon. It
           | could be done now if we could get rid of human drivers on the
           | road in some cities. But adding human into the equation is
           | just putting an infinitely variable into it.
        
           | stncls wrote:
           | It probably does not affect the cheaper models to the same
           | extent, but Kia's design language has changed quite a bit
           | over the last 5 years.
           | 
           | For example, The Grand Tour's James May was full of praise
           | for the Kia Stinger in 2017 (
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ht1Zh-1q7LU ).
           | 
           | More recently, the Kia Telluride was 2020 "World car of the
           | year". In 2019 it was basically sold out everywhere, and it
           | ended up moving more than double the numbers as the Hyundai
           | Palisade, which is essentially the same car with a different
           | exterior design.
           | 
           | The evolution has been attributed by some to their poaching
           | of European talent, like German car designer Peter Schreyer
           | of Audi TT fame.
        
           | qaq wrote:
           | Look @ https://www.genesis.com/us/en/2022/genesis-gv70.html &
           | Tesla I would hardly call gv70 a beige box compared to Tesla
           | Y
        
             | jillesvangurp wrote:
             | That's exactly what it looks like to me though. I guess
             | tastes are different. But it to me just looks like a
             | generic Chrysler style vehicle with a lot of chrome and
             | bulk to make it look like a more premium kind of thing than
             | it is. Poor Steve Jobs would turn his grave. I was talking
             | about the Kia Niro, which is one of their EVs. I doubt
             | Apple would waste time on ICE vehicles (which the genesis
             | obviously is).
             | 
             | But you are right that Teslas are kind of bland in their
             | own right.
        
         | yellow_lead wrote:
         | Is it really because of the physical size of the car? I rather
         | think they're unable to keep it secret because of the large
         | amounts of specialized hiring, supply chain talks, etc
        
           | ABeeSea wrote:
           | It's like Amazon's Fire Phone in 2012/13 on steroids. So much
           | smoke, so much hiring, so much supply chain rumor. It's
           | definitely real and something impossible to hide.
        
         | MontyCarloHall wrote:
         | Surely they could've done a better job? Test any hardware that
         | cannot be concealed in a secret underground garage, and
         | hardware that can be concealed (e.g. self-driving systems) in
         | cars that look like their streetview vans, which are already
         | bristling with sensors.
        
         | gtirloni wrote:
         | How's it frustrating to you personally? I don't get it.
        
           | usui wrote:
           | The person isn't saying it's personally frustrating. The
           | person is saying that it must be frustrating for the people
           | in charge or involved with the project, such as an executive
           | who directs the project but then gets poached by Ford.
        
             | gtirloni wrote:
             | Oh, I just re-read the comment and I get it now ("it must
             | be..."). Thanks, and sorry.
        
       | beefman wrote:
       | https://archive.is/7i2DM
        
       | azinman2 wrote:
       | > Farley has said Ford's future depends not on selling cars one
       | at a time, but on selling features to owners to constantly update
       | their cars like they do their phones.
       | 
       | I really disagree with this on so many levels, and I believe the
       | market will ultimately reject it too. When you're spending tens
       | of thousands on a car, the last thing you want is some optional
       | monthly fee for seat warmers and navigation features. This seems
       | to be driven simply by the desire to have a monthly income versus
       | what consumers actually want.
        
         | stingrae wrote:
         | this sounds like having to go to the dealership and paying for
         | them to give you updated maps for your built-in GPS, a terrible
         | UX.
        
           | jabo wrote:
           | What if upgrades were done over the air, so you didn't have
           | to go to a dealership. And the base cost of the vehicle comes
           | down, now that there's a recurring revenue component?
           | 
           | Would that change your mind?
        
             | yellow_postit wrote:
             | Volkswagen has a system like this in production already
             | with CarNet with subscription pricing for things like
             | better voice control, tracking, and maps.
             | 
             | https://carnet.vw.com/#/plan-pricing
        
         | true_religion wrote:
         | Sure, but what if you are merely leasing the car? In that case,
         | you are already paying a monthly fee, so psychologically adding
         | $30 to it for a navigation system isn't that big of an ask.
         | 
         | It can even be justified by saying that the car isn't yours to
         | begin with, so the real owner has a right to charge extra for
         | features that will now incur a maintenance cost due to your
         | use.
        
       | vsskanth wrote:
       | Just wondering if the exec move is signalling Apple isn't
       | planning on bringing the car to production ?
       | 
       | I'm in the automotive field and I came across some of their job
       | postings, and based on the JD it looked to me like they were
       | pretty serious about bringing something to market.
       | 
       | Me and a bunch of my friends and colleagues were contacted by
       | recruiters and it seemed like they wanted people with experience
       | bringing a car to production.
        
         | lifeisstillgood wrote:
         | This is a good point (you seem downvoted). I am sure Apple is
         | serious. But I suspect Ford is _more serious_. Self-driving and
         | electric are _existential_ issues for Ford and everything will
         | be thrown at it.
         | 
         | Has Tim Cook indicated in a chat at the bar that maybe Apple is
         | not so serious? I don't know. Has the exec looked at Apple and
         | thought "I don't know how to turn you into a car culture?" Or
         | maybe its all about the Benjamins.
         | 
         | There are a lot of issues at play - I am not sure which I would
         | go for - a possible side-player at the worlds best funded
         | company, or a saviour figure at a company that will have to
         | live on subsidies for a decade? Career choices can be weird
        
       | stcredzero wrote:
       | A lot of people who follow what's been happening with EVs think
       | that certain legacy auto brands will evolve to survive as design
       | and marketing organizations. (EDIT: Of EVs, specifically.) These
       | companies will put their design on top of a skateboard/chassis
       | designed and manufactured by another EV company, like Tesla. If
       | brands don't survive as a separate (EDIT: EV) company, then they
       | could also do this as a division of a parent auto company. This
       | will probably happen to brands like Ferrari, Maserati, and
       | Lamborghini.
       | 
       | Apple stands a good chance of breaking into that evolved form of
       | the business. They are, after all, very good at marketing and
       | design.
        
         | NortySpock wrote:
         | Also, sort of related: earliest concepts I've heard of for the
         | Skateboard model of EVs was ~2002 by GM.
         | 
         | https://www.popsci.com/cars/article/2002-10/hy-wire-act/
         | 
         | https://books.google.com/books?id=aQAAAAAAMBAJ&lpg=PA49&dq=%...
        
         | Someone wrote:
         | I think it's more that more and more brands will become just
         | that: brands owned by a much larger group.
         | 
         | There's a lot of consolidation going on in the market.
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PSA_Group already had quite a few
         | brands, but merged with
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_Chrysler_Automobiles to form
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stellantis.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Volkswagen_Group similarly, has
         | quite a few brands.
         | 
         | Ferrari at sometime was part of
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_Chrysler_Automobiles, the
         | predecessor of PSA group.
         | 
         | Maserati already is part of a larger group. It is owned by
         | Stellantis.
         | 
         | Lamborghini is owned by Audi, which is owned by Volkswagen.
        
           | csmeder wrote:
           | The sale of Volvo to Geely blows my mind in particular when
           | you realize $1.5b is only 30,000 BTC. Geely bought Volvo for
           | the cost of 6 pizzas [1].
           | 
           | [1] Ford paid $6.5 billion for Volvo in 1999, ten years
           | later, in 2010 10,000 Bitcoins was worth 2 large pizzas, and
           | 8 years later in 2018 Ford sold Volvo to Chinese carmaker
           | Geely for $1.5 billion (30,000 BTC by today's valuation).
        
           | reducesuffering wrote:
           | Oh man, Stellantis... It's like all the most soon-to-be-
           | obsolete automakers decided to band together to form a last
           | ditch effort in the soon-to-be-EV world but only made it
           | easier to short their collective downfall. Chrysler really
           | never even close to recovered from 2008.
        
         | baktubi wrote:
         | My boobs will wiggle to-and-friggle. Wiggle they will wiggle.
         | Electric vehicle jiggle. Wiggle the electric port bzzp.
         | 
         | Downvote the shock goes, by the ever-too, over-too serious
         | electric vehicle bzzps.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | bydo wrote:
         | Ferarri and Maserati are already part of Fiat. Lamborghini is
         | owned by Volkswagen.
         | 
         | Edit: My mistake, Maserati is owned by Stellantis, which is the
         | parent company of Fiat's parent company, and Ferrari went
         | independent in 2015. So this does still apply to Ferrari.
        
           | stcredzero wrote:
           | _If brands don 't survive as a separate company, then they
           | could also do this as a division of a parent auto company._
        
         | gorbypark wrote:
         | I know it'll probably never happen but I always thought it
         | would be cool if there was an industry standard (or probably a
         | few for different wheel bases) skateboard to cab
         | interface/mounting points so that one could buy a skateboard
         | from a choice of manufacturers and then pick a cab from
         | another. I'm guessing the skateboard manufacturers would
         | eventually consolidate into just a few, but cab makers could
         | range from cheaper imports all the way up to super high end
         | custom built ones. The ability to upgrade either a skateboard
         | or cab independently from each other would be pretty sweet,
         | too.
        
         | BoorishBears wrote:
         | It's hilarious reading comments like this.
         | 
         | The car companies that have the supply chains, the know-how,
         | and now the motivation to electrify (the key component
         | previously missing), will somehow defer to Tesla to build their
         | platforms.
         | 
         | If Tesla can figure out how to turn their market cap larger
         | than every other automaker into basic spare parts availability,
         | that will be a starting point.
         | 
         | -
         | 
         | Also FYI, 2 out of 3 luxury manufacturers you mentioned already
         | do that with established auto manufacturers
         | 
         | The Maserati Ghibli platform can trace its roots to the
         | Chrysler LX platform like most FCA products and is intermixed
         | with Chrysler/Jeep parts
         | 
         | Lamborghinis share platforms with various Audis
         | 
         | Only Ferrari is really putting out really independent platforms
        
           | OnlineGladiator wrote:
           | > The car companies that have the supply chains, the know-
           | how, and now the motivation to electrify
           | 
           | The car companies supply chains are set up for ICE, not EV.
           | Likewise, their know-how is also for ICE, not EV. It's like
           | saying Kodak was in a prime position to take advantage of the
           | digital camera (which they invented), but it was actually the
           | opposite - they'd spent decades optimizing around a separate
           | core technology and couldn't change until it was too late.
           | 
           | I'm not a fan of Tesla for a myriad of reasons and I love
           | cars. But the notion that traditional car companies can
           | magically start cranking out profitable EVs (Tesla made most
           | of their money from tax credits which are essentially gone
           | now) is laughable.
        
             | andechs wrote:
             | A EV is a much simpler device than a ICE - it's a battery
             | and an electric motor, it's much simpler than mechanical
             | power. Gone are oil pumps, transmissions, etc.
             | 
             | On top of all this, you can now route power through
             | electrical wires, rather than needing an accessory belt to
             | distribute mechanical power to the A/C, oil pump, power
             | steering etc.
             | 
             | The electric car's tech advances are mostly in the battery
             | technology (and vapourware "Level 5 automation in 2019").
             | Tesla will have a unique differentiator in battery tech and
             | production, but it's not crazy to retool an existing ICE
             | manufacturer to EVs.
        
               | stcredzero wrote:
               | _Gone are oil pumps, transmissions_
               | 
               | Sandy Munroe did a disassembly of an EV motor oil pump
               | just a few days ago. (In fairness, he also notes that one
               | manufacturer has done away with this oil pump, and uses
               | the heat pump instead.) Also, some EVs also have
               | transmissions.
        
             | jeeeb wrote:
             | > But the notion that traditional car companies can
             | magically start cranking out profitable EVs (Tesla made
             | most of their money from tax credits which are essentially
             | gone now) is laughable.
             | 
             | That seems to be exactly what a lot of traditional car
             | makers are doing though. Ford, Audi, BMW, VW, Hyundai,
             | Renault, Nissan, Mazda all have or are adding EVs to their
             | range, and that's just off the top of my head. They seem to
             | expect profits to reach similar levels to ICEs as well:
             | https://europe.autonews.com/automakers/automakers-finally-
             | se...
             | 
             | Similarly Honda have announced they're going to phase out
             | ICEs by 2030 (iirc). Toyota just announced around 10
             | billion dollars of investment to expanding battery
             | production to 33x current levels and 5 billion in battery
             | technology R&D.
             | 
             | Digital cameras destroyed Kodak's business model of selling
             | film. For car makers though selling EVs is essentially the
             | same business model as selling ICEs. They sell cars not
             | particular types of drive chain.
             | 
             | Tesla is now well established as a luxury car brand but I
             | think smaller EV startups are about to be washed out by
             | competition from traditional makers. Smaller traditional
             | makers will likely struggle to make the investment required
             | to make the transition though. There's likely to be a
             | period of industry consolidation.
        
             | BoorishBears wrote:
             | Do people realize how little of a modern car's complexity
             | is the powertrain?
             | 
             | The eTron was built on a rework of the Audi platform that's
             | in _twelve_ ICEs before hosting it 's first EV.
             | 
             | I mean, there's a reason the manufacturers will give you a
             | 100k mile powertrain warranty, but won't cover a broken cup
             | holder past 40k.
             | 
             | ICEs have been iterated to the point of boredom. Most
             | engines today are 3rd or 4th generations of their original
             | designs with emissions improvements and moderate power
             | gains.
             | 
             | Making flexible platforms, having a supply chain that isn't
             | so starved they're actually able to provide parts post-sale
             | (current global woes notwithstanding), things like
             | that's...
             | 
             | That's what make the notion that car manufacturers suddenly
             | can't make cars just because the powertrain changed is what
             | I find laughable.
             | 
             | -
             | 
             | Actually, funnily enough people don't realize this has
             | actually happened before.
             | 
             | 1970 Clean Air act and the 1970 oil crises might as well
             | have been a "reset" in powertrain development.
             | 
             | Many cars could no longer exist as they did, and
             | manufacturers had to adjust to a completely new market,
             | with new competition from efficient overseas competitors
             | (who's efficient-focused powertrains previously had no
             | place)
             | 
             | Sound familiar?
             | 
             | Some companies that were already floundering did fold.
             | American Motors died off and Chrysler picked up the pieces.
             | 
             | But for the most part the industry adjusted and moved on.
             | Because at the end of the day the powertrain is just that,
             | the powertrain. It's _supposed_ to be boring for the
             | manufacturers because people will put up with a
             | infotainment system that can 't play video games when
             | you're parked, but they won't put up with an engine that
             | works when it wants to.
        
             | AnthonyMouse wrote:
             | > It's like saying Kodak was in a prime position to take
             | advantage of the digital camera (which they invented), but
             | it was actually the opposite - they'd spent decades
             | optimizing around a separate core technology and couldn't
             | change until it was too late.
             | 
             | Their problem is the same one as Kodak, but it's not that
             | they're too optimized for the legacy technology. It's that
             | they don't want to give up the cash cow.
             | 
             | Digital cameras don't need Kodak film. Electric cars don't
             | need oil changes from the Chevy dealership.
             | 
             | GM absolutely can make electric cars. They don't want to,
             | because that's the end of their service business. It's the
             | end of people buying a new car because their old car won't
             | pass emissions. It's the end of people spending $2500 to
             | put a new transmission in their $8000 car.
             | 
             | All they get instead are battery replacements, but the cost
             | of a battery replacement is mostly the cost of the battery,
             | not the labor. And batteries are a fungible commodity, so
             | they have to compete on price with Panasonic and LG and
             | they won't get anything like the margins they currently get
             | for engines and transmissions.
             | 
             | They don't want this so they drag their feet. In the
             | meantime it's an opportunity for competitors to eat their
             | lunch.
             | 
             | Whether they get on the ball in time to not become Kodak
             | remains to be seen.
        
               | bluGill wrote:
               | > Electric cars don't need oil changes from the Chevy
               | dealership.
               | 
               | The car manufactures have nothing to lose from the loss
               | of oil changes, only the independent dealers.
               | 
               | > It's the end of people buying a new car because their
               | old car won't pass emissions. It's the end of people
               | spending $2500 to put a new transmission in their $8000
               | car.
               | 
               | Most cars are replaced because the lease was up on the
               | old one. Even way down the line, most places don't have
               | emissions testing for old cars: the car is replaced
               | because the parts wear out. Ever seen a car with 250k
               | miles on it - don't use the door handle to close it, it
               | will just break off more, just ignore the worn spot on
               | the seats, the AC will work for another two weeks if I
               | recharge it - the above is real from my last car - a
               | small number of all the little things (and it still ran
               | great)
               | 
               | Transmissions are generally rebuilt by a third party.
               | 
               | > All they get instead are battery replacements, but the
               | cost of a battery replacement is mostly the cost of the
               | battery, not the labor.
               | 
               | NO, the cost of the battery is they have the ability to
               | replace it. Either you replace all the individual cells
               | (if 18650 a lot of labor - and you need a new chargers
               | for the new chemistry), or more likely the manufacture is
               | keeping everything around to make it even though the car
               | it went in is out of production. Either you are paying
               | for labor, or paying for a battery assembly process for
               | an obsolete car. Third parties might do this for popular
               | cars, but you never know when you buy a car if that
               | battery platform will be used enough for someone else to
               | start production when you need it.
        
               | chipotle_coyote wrote:
               | > Most cars are replaced because the lease was up on the
               | old one.
               | 
               | From a bit of cursory research just now, only a quarter
               | to a third of new cars in the last few years in the US
               | have been leased rather than purchased, so I'm pretty
               | sure this is not true. (Of the folks I know who've leased
               | cars in the past, about half of them actually bought out
               | their lease at the end, too, although obviously that's
               | anecdotal.)
               | 
               | I think the rest of your comment's on point, I just think
               | you're underestimating how many people treat cars closer
               | to the way you apparently do. :) While this is again an
               | anecdote, when I traded in a Mazda 3 after eight years, I
               | was surprised at how many friends and acquaintances I
               | talked to -- including other folks right here in Silicon
               | Valley, making more money than I am to boot -- reacted to
               | that as "only eight years?"
        
               | BoorishBears wrote:
               | > The car manufactures have nothing to lose from the loss
               | of oil changes, only the independent dealers
               | 
               | The dealers and the manufacturers are a symbiotic
               | relationship.
               | 
               | If the service department stops being a cash cow, is the
               | manufacturer supposed to give up more of their margin?
               | 
               | Because the dealers are independent _just_ enough that if
               | they decide to fold, the manufacturer can 't just swoop
               | in and keep everything running.
               | 
               | Right now people don't appreciate how happy the
               | manufacturers are to sell the car to the dealer and take
               | their money. If a car sits on the lot for a year it's not
               | their problem (unless all of them do that is and there's
               | no room)
               | 
               | Service departments and Finance departments are the two
               | things that keep that relationship going. Right now part
               | of the resistance to EVs from dealers is also likely the
               | potential buyers.
               | 
               | You can guestimate EVs have a 10k premium over comparable
               | ICE vehicles right now going based on a base Model 3 vs a
               | Camry. The people who have money for that premium likely
               | have better credit scores and can't be hit with extremely
               | lucrative subprime rates.
               | 
               | Someone with an 800 credit score won't let them tack on a
               | 3% finance reserve to their 1% loan, but someone with a
               | 650 score being told their rate is 11% isn't going to
               | question why it's so high...
               | 
               | Honestly this stuff is way more complicated than HN tends
               | to assume. There are so many forces at play here that
               | trying to make statements like "maybe tesla will make
               | cars for all the other brands" is never going to be
               | realistic.
               | 
               | > Transmissions are generally rebuilt by a third party.
               | 
               | This is an aside, but transmissions are often _replaced_
               | by a dealer. Most places will not sell the average person
               | on rebuilding their transmission lol, that sounds like a
               | relic of yesteryear. Today a used replacement would be
               | the middle ground offered for an out of warranty owner.
        
               | AnthonyMouse wrote:
               | > The car manufactures have nothing to lose from the loss
               | of oil changes, only the independent dealers.
               | 
               | The car manufacturers sell their cars through the
               | dealers. If every time they make an EV, the dealerships
               | don't order them and steer every customer away from
               | buying them, that's just as much a problem for the car
               | manufacturer.
               | 
               | > Most cars are replaced because the lease was up on the
               | old one.
               | 
               | The leased car still goes to someone else who then needs
               | to service it.
               | 
               | And if the old cars start lasting for 40 years instead of
               | 15 then the value of just off lease cars goes down due to
               | increased supply, which makes leasing more expensive to
               | offset the loss of resale value, which makes fewer people
               | buy new cars.
               | 
               | > Even way down the line, most places don't have
               | emissions testing for old cars: the car is replaced
               | because the parts wear out. Ever seen a car with 250k
               | miles on it - don't use the door handle to close it, it
               | will just break off more, just ignore the worn spot on
               | the seats, the AC will work for another two weeks if I
               | recharge it - the above is real from my last car - a
               | small number of all the little things (and it still ran
               | great)
               | 
               | Nobody replaces the door handle on an ICE car with
               | 250,000 miles on it because they know the powertrain will
               | give out in another 10,000 miles and then the car will be
               | scrap.
               | 
               | But batteries don't work like transmissions. As they go
               | bad they have 150 miles of range instead of 300. For many
               | people that's enough and they'll drive the car that way
               | another five years, and then it's worth replacing the
               | door handle.
               | 
               | Meanwhile battery prices are falling like a rock. The
               | lower they get, the older the car is before it has to be
               | scrapped because a new battery is too expensive.
               | 
               | > Transmissions are generally rebuilt by a third party.
               | 
               | Transmissions _can_ be rebuilt by a third party. That
               | doesn 't mean nobody goes to the dealer or buys a new
               | transmission from the carmaker.
               | 
               | > NO, the cost of the battery is they have the ability to
               | replace it. Either you replace all the individual cells
               | (if 18650 a lot of labor - and you need a new chargers
               | for the new chemistry), or more likely the manufacture is
               | keeping everything around to make it even though the car
               | it went in is out of production.
               | 
               | Carmakers have the incentive to standardize this. If
               | every GM EV for twenty years has one of two or three
               | different battery packs, people will be making those
               | indefinitely.
               | 
               | Meanwhile the labor of replacing individual cells in old
               | batteries will happen in countries with lower labor costs
               | because it isn't labor that has to happen at the repair
               | site.
               | 
               | The result is that remanufactured batteries could end up
               | being _very_ inexpensive.
        
               | stcredzero wrote:
               | _The car manufactures have nothing to lose from the loss
               | of oil changes, only the independent dealers._
               | 
               | The dealers' incentives are going to play some
               | significant role in legacy EV sales. VW dealers were
               | actively steering buyers _away_ from VW 's EVs. Also
               | YouTuber "Tesla Economist" has been doing an informal
               | survey by calling legacy auto dealerships and inquiring
               | about EVs. Apparently, legacy auto dealers are now
               | marking up EVs by $2000, $4000, in one case by $13000!
               | (The Ford dealerships are steering callers _towards_ EVs
               | now, so at least Ford has that going for them.)
               | 
               | The loss of oil changes is going to have some not-
               | insignificant effect on the auto servicing industry.
               | Clearly!
        
             | bluGill wrote:
             | Most of the car supply chains are the same for EV and ICE.
             | Still the same radio, windows, seats, tires... Yes ICEs are
             | complex but they are not the only complex part.
             | 
             | All Kodak shows is that it is possible to not use your
             | prime position. Sometimes companies fail to transition,
             | sometimes they don't. Only time will tell.
        
             | Matthias247 wrote:
             | I've worked at a major automative company in a R&D org of
             | 5k people. Nothing in our org was "set up for ICE", and
             | none of the suppliers would have been specialized for that.
             | Keep in mind that a motor is only one part of a car, and
             | even if you add other drivetrain related parts (exhaust,
             | transmission, etc) it might barely end up as 33% of a car.
             | 
             | Infotainment is pretty much independent of the engine
             | (apart from some icons/visualizations/settings here and
             | there), as are most driver assistance systems, safety
             | systems, anti-theft, chassis, mirrors, lights, wheels,
             | brakes, doors, trunks, etc.
        
               | stcredzero wrote:
               | _...Nothing in our org was "set up for ICE",..._
               | 
               |  _Infotainment is pretty much independent of the engine
               | (apart from some icons /visualizations/settings here and
               | there), as are most driver assistance systems, safety
               | systems, anti-theft, chassis, mirrors, lights, wheels,
               | brakes, doors, trunks, etc._
               | 
               | From what little bit I know about testing of automotive
               | systems, there is a vast warren of disconnected, diverse
               | microcontrollers and separate communications busses in
               | the typical ICE vehicle from several years back.
               | 
               | Tesla turned this all on its head. Just about _every_
               | system with software in a Tesla vehicle can be upgraded
               | by a car 's central computer through an over the air
               | update.
               | 
               | Exactly the situation you describe above is what some
               | would naively term, "set up for ICE." It's set up for the
               | legacy ICE world, where there were no over the air
               | updates, and the car wasn't a computerized robot on
               | wheels. This legacy can be seen in the failed updates
               | coming out of GM and Ford. There have been reports of
               | legacy auto updates requiring buyers to go back to the
               | dealership, but then the dealers are afraid to apply the
               | update, because they experienced "bricking" the vehicle.
        
               | detaro wrote:
               | _naively_ , yes.
               | 
               | Those developments are basically unrelated to ICE vs EV,
               | at least from what I've seen. Car companies are working
               | on that in ICE models too (and tried before they
               | announced EVs). Car companies make EVs that don't have
               | this kind of integration, and will continue to do so.
               | Some probably have decided to align it and develop it in
               | parallel for EV models only, or at least pretend to do so
               | for marketing reasons, but it's not a fundamental
               | property of either/or.
               | 
               | "Having" to do both now of course doesn't make life
               | easier for car companies, many of them still struggle
               | very much with this "software" thing, and it shows.
        
               | vineyardmike wrote:
               | > Tesla turned this all on its head. Just about every
               | system with software in a Tesla vehicle can be upgraded
               | by a car's central computer through an over the air
               | update.
               | 
               | They could do this with ICE couldn't they? What does that
               | have to do with EV specifically? It seems it just adds to
               | the lore of Tesla - The Tech Car
        
           | while1fork wrote:
           | Koenigsegg does almost everything and has a lot of unique
           | features like all carbon wheels.
        
           | stcredzero wrote:
           | _The car companies that have the supply chains, the know-how,
           | and now the motivation to electrify (the key component
           | previously missing), will somehow defer to Tesla to build
           | their platforms._
           | 
           | That takes some doing, as GM is finding out with the Bolt EV
           | catch-fire recall, costing them many 100's of millions. Even
           | if they can source the batteries, and get to a minimum level
           | of quality and dependability, they will probably still be far
           | behind in terms of margins, power density, and efficiency --
           | for several years at least.
           | 
           |  _Also FYI, 2 out of 3 luxury manufacturers you mentioned
           | already do that with established auto manufacturers_
           | 
           | Indeed. And at this point, Tesla is the most established EV
           | manufacturer.
        
             | BoorishBears wrote:
             | Lol those brands didn't randomly go to those manufacturers,
             | Maserati is owned by FCA/"Stellantis" and Lamborghini is
             | owned by VAG.
             | 
             | I can't believe people are seriously entertaining the idea
             | that a major auto manufacturer would need Tesla to make
             | cars for them.
             | 
             | At that point what is the manufacturer bringing? Tesla's
             | totally-not-marketing has brought them more cachet than
             | anyone "boring" like Ford or Toyota
        
               | stcredzero wrote:
               | _I can 't believe people are seriously entertaining the
               | idea that a major auto manufacturer would need Tesla to
               | make cars for them._
               | 
               | The trend I see, is that the more people know about what
               | it takes to mass-manufacture an EV, the more they expect
               | that legacy auto companies are going to turn to another
               | manufacturer for the battery pack and the drivetrain.
               | 
               |  _At that point what is the manufacturer bringing?_
               | 
               | The strength of the brand. It's hard to deny the brand
               | strength of Ferrari, Rolls-Royce, Maserati, and
               | Lamborghini. People will pay ridiculous markups to own
               | brands like that. This opens up the margins such
               | companies would need to survive.
               | 
               |  _Tesla 's totally-not-marketing has brought them more
               | cachet than anyone "boring" like Ford or Toyota_
               | 
               | Does Tesla have the equivalent cachet of Lamborghini?
               | It's debatable, I think.
        
           | matthewdgreen wrote:
           | I don't know what supply chains the legacy automakers have,
           | but it sure feels like they're having trouble sourcing
           | efficient batteries.
        
             | BoorishBears wrote:
             | Are they? Or are they making cars that are less efficient,
             | regardless of battery tech?
             | 
             | The Taycan for example, is clearly not focused on being as
             | efficient as possible. It's an opulent car with all the
             | heavy soundproofing and insulation people buying these
             | types of cars expect.
             | 
             | The Mach E is probably the most normal looking EV suv, and
             | it's Cd ends up being the highest of the bunch despite not
             | even having door handles.
             | 
             | I don't think efficiency is the big win people are acting
             | like it is. Just like there are gas guzzlers and econoboxes
             | that get miles and miles per gallon, there will be more or
             | less efficient EVs.
             | 
             | Efficiency _by itself_ is not going to be a differentiator
             | forever because past a certain range figure, most people 's
             | needs are met. From there "splurging" an extra 5 cents per
             | mile to have their preferred car is not a problem
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | I don't know why he used the term "efficient batteries".
               | I don't really know what that means and basically agree
               | with you. Ford doesn't have great driving efficiency, but
               | it doesn't matter as they've solved for that by using a
               | really big battery.
               | 
               | However, they seem to be severely limited in production
               | capacity due to the limited number of cells available.
               | Right now, everyone other than Tesla seems to be hitting
               | that issue, and Tesla is at least a year ahead. More if
               | they can actually get the 4680 lines running on schedule,
               | but that's a big if.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | matthewdgreen wrote:
               | There is enough battery capacity to build plenty of Ford
               | Mach-E's. But Ford can't afford to spend $100,000 to
               | manufacture a $50K car, nor can they use recycled laptop
               | batteries that make the car 1000lbs heavier. The problem
               | here is sourcing batteries that are weight- and cost-
               | efficient, and Tesla has been investing heavily in the
               | production of such batteries.
        
               | matthewdgreen wrote:
               | I'm referring more to the poor production numbers and
               | long delays. Efficiency is relevant insofar as
               | manufacturers with less-efficient technology may need
               | more [and more expensive] battery cells to build
               | competitive cars with comparable range (which the market
               | does demand), and this exacerbates the supply shortages
               | and lowers the profitability of the resulting vehicles.
               | Of course I'm assuming that batteries are a major part of
               | the blocker here -- if not, something sure is.
               | 
               | ETA: What I'm trying to say is that existing automotive
               | supply chains may not be a massive advantage, if the
               | relevant supply chains are battery/motor tech and Tesla
               | has developed the best supply chains for those specific
               | technologies.
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | I imagine Ferrari customers in particular would enjoy Silicon
           | Valley chic and startup-quality fit and finish of a Tesla.
        
             | stcredzero wrote:
             | I upvoted you. Tesla did indeed deserve to be called out
             | for this. According to Sandy Munroe, they seem to have
             | learned this lesson, though.
        
               | rasz wrote:
               | You would think that, yet this is what you get from Tesla
               | in 2020 in NY https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Pg7JmKElUw
        
         | mhh__ wrote:
         | What's in it for Ferrari? Ferrari ship a few thousand cars a
         | year, 10k tops, and much smaller companies already make
         | electric supercars.
        
           | arpinum wrote:
           | 14k a year
        
             | mhh__ wrote:
             | https://www.statista.com/statistics/695882/number-of-car-
             | shi...
        
         | Dumblydorr wrote:
         | Tesla isn't doing that and afaik has no plans to do so. They
         | would much rather put their own fully integrated stack right
         | onto their own skateboard and make the full profit. Elon is a
         | huge fan of vertical integration, why would he change to help
         | his competitors?
         | 
         | Skateboards simply aren't that hard to make, the legacy makers
         | will have them within a decade. They won't be as efficient or
         | have large capacity as Tesla, because meanwhile Tesla will keep
         | building on it's technical lead and stay on top for at least a
         | few years, in my estimation.
         | 
         | They'll potentially be lapped by miraculous new battery
         | designs, but with current batteries? Who can top Tesla in the
         | 2020s?
        
           | devnulll wrote:
           | Tesla owns the near term EV space simply due to battery
           | output. Nobody else has, or is making, those investments at
           | sufficient scale.
           | 
           | If Tesla realizes it's more profitable to sell skateboards to
           | BMW, then they'll happily do that. They're a basic capitalist
           | company in that regard.
           | 
           | To what degree will existing automakers get national level
           | protections in order to protect global interests? Germany
           | certainly won't sit by while BMW & MB go under; they'll take
           | some action even if it's forcing Tesla Germany to sell
           | skateboards to BMW. Japan will do something similar to
           | preserve Toyota & Honda, as will China and South Korea.
           | 
           | Disruption will be very interesting in how it plays out...
        
           | mikepurvis wrote:
           | I'm also a bit skeptical about the skateboard hype. Like,
           | wasn't this what the legacy auto manufacturers learned in the
           | 90s as competition ramped up from Asia, that it really wasn't
           | worth the diversion of having half a dozen barely-
           | differentiated cars on the same "platform" being badged and
           | marketed in different ways (think Taurus/Sable/Continental,
           | etc).
           | 
           | Basically, all the specs that matter will be coming from the
           | skateboard as far as performance, battery life, handling, and
           | so on. What incentive is there to try to build a new box when
           | someone else is making the chocolates?
        
             | oblio wrote:
             | > Like, wasn't this what the legacy auto manufacturers
             | learned in the 90s as competition ramped up from Asia, that
             | it really wasn't worth the diversion of having half a dozen
             | barely-differentiated cars on the same "platform" being
             | badged and marketed in different ways (think
             | Taurus/Sable/Continental, etc).
             | 
             | Volkswagen is a top 3 auto manufacturer and was top 1
             | recently. Volkswagen, Skoda, Seat, Audi go exactly against
             | what you're saying.
        
               | vineyardmike wrote:
               | But do all the VW cars share everything except the badge
               | and body shape?
        
             | darkwater wrote:
             | Kia EV6 and Hyundai Ioniq 5 have the same skateboard (today
             | I learnt this naming), are obviusly 2 similar cars but have
             | enough differences on the aestethic side to interest
             | different people. External look is still a thing when
             | choosing a car (right after the brand).
        
               | quartesixte wrote:
               | External look can also affect drive handling (weight
               | distribution, aero, general bulk/length concerns for city
               | streets/parking)!
        
       | Digory wrote:
       | Strong "JC Penney hires away Ron Johnson from Apple's retail
       | project" vibes.
        
         | heavyset_go wrote:
         | Ford is responsible for manufacturing the best-selling vehicles
         | in the US, and has been for years.
        
           | snarf21 wrote:
           | Additionally, they are putting out some _really_ impressive
           | EV designs and plans. I think Ford has an even stronger
           | future.
        
           | csmeder wrote:
           | That's one take. Here is another: "$F holding the Feb 1 1994
           | resistance as support to the penny so far. Legacy auto gonna
           | need some catalysts as chip shortage will be prolonged and
           | billions in capital needed for EV development."
           | https://twitter.com/JoTrader4/status/1434945782323589123
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | notadoc wrote:
       | I'm skeptical of the Apple Car project as a casual observer, are
       | the employees too?
        
       | bane wrote:
       | I'm on the side of things where I think Apple realized that
       | electric cars are sorta giant iPhones on wheels and thought they
       | could move into the market if there wasn't already a strong
       | leader. This all made sense when it was clear the technology was
       | there and Tesla wasn't a sure thing, so there was ample
       | competitive room to elbow into.
       | 
       | When Tesla survived and thrived I believe this caused Apple to
       | take a step back and watch how the market plays out for a bit
       | before committing...trying to find out of there really was a play
       | there.
       | 
       | In addition, Tim Cook is a supply-chain guy, and the supply chain
       | for electric vehicles is still very immature and extremely
       | dependent on technology that Apple doesn't really have expertise
       | in (yet), batteries. There's just not a good selection of
       | suppliers for batteries that can produce at Apple's volume needs,
       | and at car scale.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | > electric cars are sorta giant iPhones on wheels
         | 
         | Except cars can't compete for your attention. Your eyes must be
         | on the road.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | xt00 wrote:
       | Would seem likely this is more like "Apple executive finally
       | realizes apple doesn't really want to build a car, so leaves.."
        
         | rsj_hn wrote:
         | Why on earth would Apple want to build a car? Apple wants to
         | make money off of cars by selling devices and software that
         | integrate with cars -- look at the hugely successful CarPlay --
         | but Apple is not going to manufacture their own cars.
        
           | nicoburns wrote:
           | > Why on earth would Apple want to build a car?
           | 
           | From a business perspective, possibly because it's a huge
           | market and Apple has a lot of cash to invest. It's quite
           | different to what they currently do, but they are limited in
           | how much they can expand in their current markets so they're
           | probably going to want to try something new. Entering the
           | phone market was pretty ambitious too (not _as_ ambitious,
           | but they were a much smaller company then), and they were
           | prepared to take their time doing it. I believe precursor
           | forms of the iPhone were in development for over 10 years
           | before it was actually released.
           | 
           | I'm not going to say that Apple will decide to manufacture
           | cars, or that they'd be successful at it if they did decide
           | to. But I wouldn't rule them out either.
        
             | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
             | It's not really a standard Apple play - take a new-ish
             | technology and commoditise it, while wrapping it in pretty
             | design and marketing glitter.
             | 
             | Making pocket/rucksack electronic doodads is one thing.
             | Cars are on a completely different level of
             | industrialisation, supply chain management, dealer
             | networking, service support... and existing competition.
             | 
             | And the plausible market capture is much smaller.
             | 
             | It would be like Apple trying to compete against NEC,
             | Fujitsu, and IBM with a commercial mainframe project. They
             | could surely get a product out. But why? And then what?
        
               | nicoburns wrote:
               | > It would be like Apple trying to compete against NEC,
               | Fujitsu, and IBM with a commercial mainframe project.
               | They could surely get a product out. But why? And then
               | what?
               | 
               | I think it's quite different. The car market is huge, and
               | it's also a consumer market. Apple would struggle to make
               | headway with enterprises, but they're good at consumer
               | markets.
               | 
               | A lot of people would have said the same at the prospect
               | of Apple competing with Nokia, RIM, etc in the phone
               | world. And then they came out with a product that
               | completely blew everyone away. A car is harder for sure,
               | but they have the money and they also have the time so I
               | don't really see why not.
        
           | mandeepj wrote:
           | > Why on earth would Apple want to build a car?
           | 
           | You would have said something similar if you had heard about
           | Apple's Phone plans back in 2004-2006
        
           | enos_feedler wrote:
           | The same reason why Apple will probably make a TV even though
           | they have AirPlay. They are different solutions to different
           | problems. AirPlay and CarPlay are all about the iPhone and
           | connecting it to a diverse ecosystem in another product
           | category (TVs, Cars). It increases the value of the phone.
           | Making a TV and making a car are stand alone products that
           | answer the question: can we make a version of this product
           | that is differentiated enough to be meaningful in the market?
           | From a technology standpoint, this means clever integration
           | of hardware, software and services. And beyond that, there
           | are other things too (privacy, etc)
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | I do not see any reason why Apple would invest in making a
             | TV when all of these TVs exist that already support Airplay
             | 2.
             | 
             | https://www.apple.com/ios/home/accessories/#section-tv
             | 
             | And they sell Apple TV devices, which when plugged into a
             | TV with HDMI CEC controls (all of them nowadays), renders
             | TVs indistinguishable from one another except for picture
             | quality and maybe how quickly they turn on and off.
             | 
             | I guess it is possible for them to integrate the Apple TV
             | device directly into a TV, but I do not see the profit
             | motive on the part of Apple nor the convenience motive on
             | the part of the TV user as it is pretty easy to stick an
             | Apple TV onto the back of a TV.
        
               | enos_feedler wrote:
               | Like I said, Airplay is a feature of an iPhone, not a TV
               | product. The Apple TV set top box is a stop gap for a
               | real tv. They need a placeholder platform to have the
               | developer side of the platform seeded.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I disagree that the Apple TV is a stop gap. It works with
               | any TV, and you stick some adhesive strips on it and
               | stick it to the back of a TV, and the only difference is
               | you need one more plug outlet for it.
               | 
               | Sony/LG/Samsung have plenty of low-mid-high quality TVs
               | for whoever wants them. There is nothing extra Apple can
               | provide there.
        
               | enos_feedler wrote:
               | Thats exactly the problem. There is nothing extra Apple
               | can provide. What if they want to use faceid for auth?
               | They can't. If the TV is to be a platform like everything
               | else, they can only push forward new APIs with new
               | hardware. You are viewing the market is static.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | That is a good point. I am only thinking of it in terms
               | of how people use TVs today. If Apple does manage to
               | convince people to to use it another way, then I agree
               | there is some opportunity to have their own screen panel.
        
               | justahuman1 wrote:
               | Most TVs have garbage menu interfaces, I'd love for apple
               | to provide a dumb screen + appletv
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | You never have to interact with a TV's interface already.
               | 
               | HDMI CEC allows you to take a new TV, plug an apple TV
               | in, and just use the Apple TV remote. The TV will
               | automatically turn off and on switched to the Apple TV
               | input, hence a dumb screen + Apple TV.
        
               | enos_feedler wrote:
               | What happens when you have a ps5, xbox and/or switch
               | attached to the same tv? is it seamless? Does it just
               | switch on whatever remote you are using? what about first
               | time setup?
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I do not use those devices so I do not know for sure. But
               | HDMI CEC is supposed to automatically move you to
               | whatever device you start using. So if you press the
               | PlayStation controller, the TV should switch to the
               | PlayStation input since it received a signal from the
               | PlayStation, and so on.
               | 
               | At least it works like that with Apple TV, I do not to
               | see why Sony and Nintendo and Microsoft would not
               | implement the same thing Apple did.
               | 
               | And there is no first time setup. Of course, to change
               | the TV picture's settings themselves you would have to
               | use the TV.
        
             | n8cpdx wrote:
             | People have been talking about the Apple TV for many, many
             | years. This actually sounds like a stronger case for Apple
             | not making a car.
             | 
             | > can we make a version of this product that is
             | differentiated enough to be meaningful in the market?
             | 
             | FWIW, I think the answer is 'No', unlike e.g. AR glasses or
             | smartphones pre-2007.
             | 
             | Heck, Apple TV and the homepod each are struggling relative
             | to competitors and apple really hasn't delivered anything
             | innovative in those spaces. Aside from truly wireless
             | headphones, I can't think of any successful apple product
             | that isn't primarily a computer.
        
               | enos_feedler wrote:
               | We'll see. Just because people talk about products and
               | they haven't come to light yet doesn't mean they won't.
               | In fact, its probably more likely that people are just a
               | bit wrong on the timing and not wrong altogether. If
               | there has been talk of cars and tvs for so long, chances
               | are they will make their way out the door at some point.
               | Same went for the phone, ipad, etc.
        
               | vineyardmike wrote:
               | > If there has been talk of cars and tvs for so long,
               | chances are they will make their way out the door at some
               | point.
               | 
               | I've never heard any rumors after maybe 2010 of an apple
               | TV product that isn't a set top box.
        
             | vineyardmike wrote:
             | Apple isn't great at building low-value-add products. They
             | shy away from these. TVs are a prime example where they
             | can't add value beyond an AppleTV set top box.
             | 
             | - The set top box works with any TV and it's one SKU. The
             | number of sizes/screen quality/prices that people would
             | require from a TV is so not apple's MO. As much as apple
             | loves integration, they'd prefer a one-SKU device more.
             | 
             | - Airplay is value, but they haven't really added to it
             | lately. The existing AppleTV already does it, and so do 3rd
             | party tvs.
             | 
             | - TVs are very low margin, and they don't own screen
             | manufacturing so they're likely not able to take outsized
             | profits from the market.
             | 
             | Regarding the Car - Its an open question if they're still
             | doing it, but maybe like the TV, they shouldn't wont...
             | 
             | - They want to control the software and GUI and that's done
             | now. Unless they want to control the car itself (eg. doors,
             | alarms, etc. or self-driving) they don't need deeper
             | integration.
             | 
             | - Cars are very complex, even for apple standards - and not
             | complex in the way apple is familiar with. They have no
             | experience building or differentiating in this industry
             | (like screens wrt to TVs but 1000x less experience).
             | 
             | - CarPlay added tremendous value, and most cars have it
             | now. Deeper integration of the phone as the brains makes
             | sense. But does anything else?
        
           | shrimpx wrote:
           | It makes sense from the perspective of Apple consistently
           | being a "personal device" company. A car is another personal
           | device. The more cars become imbibed with computing the
           | closer they get to Apple's core interest.
        
           | nojito wrote:
           | Why not?
           | 
           | A car is basically a computer on wheels theses days.
        
             | mhh__ wrote:
             | Designing the bits the computer actuates is not something
             | you can model like a computer, though. Vehicle Dynamics
             | isn't easy to get right. Tyres in particular might as well
             | have been invented by Satan himself if you try to model
             | them in a hurry.
        
             | colejohnson66 wrote:
             | Despite being completely "drive by wire", (modern) cars are
             | _not_ just "computers on wheels". For starters: cars have
             | moving parts; Your phone doesn't (or does but barely).
             | They're complex beasts.
        
               | xt00 wrote:
               | Probably most folks would think Apple could build a car
               | -- and something being a computer on wheels Apple could
               | handle, its more like Apple probably doesn't like the
               | economics of it.. iphones and software services are
               | pretty lucrative, and worst case scenario you ask the
               | person to bring in their phone to get a replacement..
               | when you scale that up to building service centers,
               | paying mechanics, building huge factories that produce a
               | small number of cars per day compared to the 1 million
               | iphones per day it would be a losing part of the business
               | in both profit margin and risk for years even if they end
               | up being pretty successful with it eventually..
        
               | jdavis703 wrote:
               | My current laptop has a fan, and in the old days it had a
               | spinning disc media (CD/DVD and HDD).
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | meibo wrote:
               | Are you comparing a small DC electro motor that drives a
               | static fan blade with the drive train and steering
               | systems of a car?
        
               | Schweigi wrote:
               | I dont know why you got downvoted. Servicing cars is very
               | different from handling what Apple is currently selling
               | and definitely not remotely the same. So it's definitely
               | a good question how or why Apple would enter the car
               | market.
        
             | Animats wrote:
             | Ford is positioning the electric F-150 as a _power station_
             | on wheels. Run a table saw off your work truck. Run your
             | camp site off your personal truck. Emergency power during
             | the next flood.
        
           | twobitshifter wrote:
           | The value of the car market is enormous. If you look at the
           | top 10 industries, cars are the best market for Apple to
           | branch out into. I can't see them in financial services,
           | construction, or oil/energy.
           | 
           | If you look at previous behemoth companies, like GE, they
           | tried to hit all these industries and overextended. There was
           | GE energy, GE Capital, GE digital, GE Healthcare, GE
           | Transportation systems, GE Aviation, and some part of that
           | made light bulbs. With Apple, they can't just keep producing
           | phones and grow so the challenge is to break into new
           | neighboring sectors. Their goal with the car was not so much
           | to manufacture it as it was to provide industrial design,
           | branding, and software support as an initial foray. They were
           | turned back by Kia/Hyundai as not bringing enough to the
           | table.
        
             | vineyardmike wrote:
             | As others mentioned, they already have huge financial
             | services. Plus their mountain of cash is probably not just
             | in some bank account, surely it's invested and put to work
             | growing too.
             | 
             | Apple clearly has healthcare ambitions by the Apple Watch.
             | They're building stupidly popular medical monitoring
             | devices, and a health data research platform. Seems like
             | they could tip-toe their way towards medical records
             | management software too.
             | 
             | I am surprised they don't offer more cloud services for app
             | developers, but i'm guessing its hard for them to compete
             | with the major clouds.
             | 
             | Apple does not have the manufacturing or sales chops to
             | sell whole cars. While Apple Geniuses are great at fixing
             | an iphone, they're ill equipped to service cars.
        
             | spoonjim wrote:
             | They are already in financial services big time (Apple
             | Wallet/Pay/Cash) and that can grow.
        
           | nickff wrote:
           | Apple's Carplay may also be their first step in a 'automotive
           | operating system' for partial or full self-driving cars. I
           | could also see them building a 'development kit' car, with
           | documentation to allow 'chassis-builders' and/or 'coach-
           | builders' to create their own customized designs.
        
             | wyager wrote:
             | I hope to God I never have to ride in a vehicle where its
             | core safety-critical functionality in any way shares code
             | with CarPlay.
        
               | FireBeyond wrote:
               | Yup. I deal with hysteresis on mine that will flip back
               | and forth between day and night view every second if the
               | ambient light is borderline.
               | 
               | And other things. Car Play is great, but currently one of
               | Apple's buggiest products.
        
           | smnrchrds wrote:
           | > _Why on earth would Apple want to build a car?_
           | 
           | I am wondering about the same question. Cars are not a high-
           | margin business.
        
             | dduugg wrote:
             | This was true of smart phones until Apple came along. It's
             | still the case for non-Apple manufacturers: https://www.for
             | bes.com/sites/johnkoetsier/2019/12/22/global-...
        
               | smnrchrds wrote:
               | Apple's margins are high not because its production costs
               | are much lower than others, but because it has premium
               | pricing. Average cost of a new car in close to 39k USD.
               | How much more can people possibly afford? It's easy for
               | Apple to take the market for 100$ phones and create a
               | market for 1000$ ones. It is much harder to find a market
               | for 390k$ cars.
        
             | ssijak wrote:
             | Yeah wait till we see the price of some self driving 50kw
             | tops ricksha size vehicle Apple will produce.
        
             | dharmab wrote:
             | Cars? No. Luxury cars? Possibly.
        
           | bee_rider wrote:
           | Maybe they got suckered in by the "autonomous cars are only 5
           | years out" phase we went through a couple years ago, and
           | figured they could sell rides, rather than cars? Not sure.
           | 
           | Maybe they just try everything because they have infinite
           | money, and don't want to become the next IBM or Microsoft.
        
           | jollybean wrote:
           | Cars are becoming platforms for software and services, where
           | the differentiation are those things, which Apple is good at.
           | 
           | Apple is so big, they have to look to giant markets to expand
           | into.
           | 
           | At their scale, they should probably always 'be thinking
           | about making a car' because the potentiality is so big, but
           | being prudent enough to say 'no' almost all of the time. To
           | the point that I think it's unlikely they will make one.
           | 
           | They partnered with Motorola just before the iPhone to dip
           | their feet, so watch out for that one, i.e. the fully
           | integrated Fiat, designed by Aplle or something.
        
         | [deleted]
        
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