[HN Gopher] Predictions for September 2031
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Predictions for September 2031
Author : gallerdude
Score : 28 points
Date : 2021-09-06 17:58 UTC (5 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.museum-on-the-coast.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.museum-on-the-coast.com)
| tuatoru wrote:
| How do people make so many predictions?
|
| To make even one prediction, asking "what would have to happen
| for this to come true?", and following that chain back to the
| answer to the other question, "where are we now?" --all of that
| takes me hours at best, often months.
|
| A wish is not a prediction.
| don-code wrote:
| My hope is that the author, 10 years from now, will reflect on
| _why_ he thought these things, and gain some profound
| enlightenment from them.
|
| I can identify many beliefs about the state of the present (now
| the past), and the state of the future (now the present), that
| I held around that same age, and that I'm now embarrassed by. I
| had no fully-formed idea of what success looked like, save for
| the meager success I'd enjoyed up to that point. Yet somehow, I
| felt qualified to hold those beliefs anyway.
|
| Case in point: I at 24 (roughly the same age as the author,
| minus one year) was having a talk with a 37-year-old colleague,
| where he brought up a statistic he'd read: $27 million was
| self-sustaining - that, due to diminishing returns, you'd be
| living the same lifestyle solely off the interest proceeds, if
| you didn't work another day in your life. My first thought was,
| "that's not fully out of the realm of possibility - that's
| maybe even doable!" That was back when I was in the exponential
| growth phase of my career - I'd just graduated college, and had
| the word "Junior" dropped from my title shortly thereafter. I
| now know that's ridiculous, and I look back at 24-year-old me
| with some contempt for having thought it.
| [deleted]
| iso1631 wrote:
| > "My car can drive me to the closest local retailer without
| human intervention - 50%"
|
| How about "I need to drive to the closest local retailer without
| human intervention". In many cities there's already the ability
| to buy anything without leaving your home, hell even our village
| shop will deliver at short notice.
|
| "A lot can happen in 10 years. In 10 years I could be unemployed,
| divorced, and an alcoholic. I could also have a PhD, billionaire,
| and married to Zendaya. And there's a giant spectrum of
| possibilities between those two paths."
|
| You could even be an unemployed alcoholic billionaire with a PHd
| who just got divorced from Zendaya
| gallerdude wrote:
| > You could even be an unemployed alcoholic billionaire with a
| PHd who just got divorced from Zendaya
|
| My initial draft had a line really similar to that, great
| minds... Also, all things considered, I think that'd be a
| better than average outcome. Alcoholism and heartbreak can be
| overcome.
| abecedarius wrote:
| Classic story re that last line:
| https://www.baen.com/Chapters/9781618249203/9781618249203___...
| bellyfullofbac wrote:
| Somehow I first thought 2031 would be 20 years from now, and that
| this was written by a 13 year old. Nope, it's 10 years away, damn
| how time has flown.
|
| If you're born in 1992 or earlier, the present is closer to the
| year 2050 than to your birth.
|
| Well, if I were a betting man, I would not bet a lot of money on
| Trump still being around and fit for the 2028 elections (which
| he'd have to win for him to be president in 2031). But I would
| not bet a lot of money against it either.
|
| Also, OP's fandom of 2 particular companies is obvious...
| makach wrote:
| In software development? Anger will consume you 80%
| makach wrote:
| But kudos. This is one of the most creative articles I've read
| lately.
|
| Your future is brights. Try many things. Getting kids is
| definite one of the highlights of my life, don't fear becoming
| a parent.
| gallerdude wrote:
| Thanks!
| duckmysick wrote:
| It reminds me of Metaculus, community-generated predictions about
| various future events.
|
| https://www.metaculus.com/questions/
| gallerdude wrote:
| I love metaculus! I also probably check PredictIt [0] daily. In
| 10 years, since I have all of these listed as probabilities, I
| can check my Brier Score [1]
|
| [0] https://www.predictit.org/
|
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brier_score?wprov=sfti1
| cgrealy wrote:
| > Mickey Mouse is in the Public Domain - 70%
|
| Honestly, I think it's more likely that we'll have ALL of -
| superintelligent AGI - contact with a space faring civilisation -
| the cure for aging
|
| than I do that Disney will let copyright on anything go... :D
| gallerdude wrote:
| I hope both my probability is right and you're probabilities
| are correct, leaving us with a >70% of all of above
| mikewarot wrote:
| That's a fun list. I wish you all the luck in your quest to
| become a person good enough that Zendaya would want to marry.
| gallerdude wrote:
| Thanks! And I equally wish you luck on whatever improbable yet
| possible dreams you may have.
| inetsee wrote:
| "I am a millionaire - 5%
|
| I am an educated in the field of Computer Science, the field
| known for startups. The only disadvantage I have here is
| laziness."
|
| I have reason to believe that my IQ is greater than 140, and my
| area of expertise is software development. I am also a World
| Class procrastinator. My net worth now (after retiring) is about
| $million, but at least 2/3 of that is due to my wife, who is
| exceptionally disciplined.
|
| I think laziness reduces your chance of becoming a millionaire in
| 10 years significantly.
| zamadatix wrote:
| Somewhat relevant:
|
| Predictions by HN from 2010 on the upcoming decade -
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=1025681
|
| Predictions by HN from 2020 on the upcoming decade -
| https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21941278
| abetusk wrote:
| These are great, thanks.
|
| Someone should do an analysis after the fact to see how well
| the predictions went. We might even want to do them at smaller
| intervals, like 1, 2 and 5 years.
|
| The thing that's missing from a lot of the predictions is
| verifiability, though. As in, some predictions are vague enough
| so that it could be interpreted in a variety of ways. It'd be
| good to make the requirement "here is a concrete measure for
| which, if my prediction doesn't meet it, it will be considered
| invalid".
| dvh wrote:
| I predict that in 2031 no major car company will offer self
| driving technology (besides emergency auto breaking) in personal
| cars. Even Tesla will stop offering what it has now. Reason: too
| many lawsuits.
| matthewfelgate wrote:
| I don't think so. Lawsuits do not determine the long term
| future; Economics i.e. the bottom line money does.
|
| By 2031 most new cars will have lane keeping, emergency
| braking, traffic light & sign sensing. And likely more. Almost
| all cars will drive hands-off steering wheel on the highways.
| By 2031 a big proportion of new cars will be electric.
| gallerdude wrote:
| Not a lawyer, but couldn't you make people sign a waiver before
| activating the feature?
| anthony_r wrote:
| How do you make a third-party pedestrian to sign the waiver?
| therufa wrote:
| by bumping into them?
| gizmo686 wrote:
| You don't. The waiver between the ownee and manufacturer
| specifies that the owner is liable. Beyond that point,
| insurance solves the issue. Currently, the driver is liable
| and is required by law to carry liability insurance, so
| there is not much change from the consumer perspective.
| From the insurer perspective, the relevent data point us
| how often self driving cars mess up compared to human
| driven ones.
| iso1631 wrote:
| Pedestrian would have the claim against the car driver
| surely, the car driver would be unable to blame the
| "autopilot", just like they can't blame cruise control
| today.
| floathub wrote:
| In 2031, fully self driving cars will be just as imminent as
| they are now :-)
| air7 wrote:
| this. There was a thread an Ask HN around the new decade with
| predictions for 2030 and I wrote this too.
| d_silin wrote:
| For what's it worth, at 19 I forecasted myself to found a space
| startup by 36. The dream came true, but a lot happened in between
| those dates.
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(page generated 2021-09-06 23:01 UTC)