[HN Gopher] New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       New Evidence Against the Standard Model of Cosmology
        
       Author : nsoonhui
       Score  : 169 points
       Date   : 2021-09-05 04:29 UTC (18 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (backreaction.blogspot.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (backreaction.blogspot.com)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | bryan0 wrote:
       | > They also point out that if we live in a local hole then this
       | means that the local value of the Hubble rate must be corrected
       | down. This would be good news because currently measurements for
       | the local value of the Hubble rate are in conflict with the value
       | from the early universe. And that discrepancy has been one of the
       | biggest headaches in cosmology in the past years.
       | 
       | Wow so a local hole might solve the Hubble measurement problem? I
       | never heard that proposed at a potential solution before...
        
       | rich_sasha wrote:
       | Not knowing much about the subject: cosmological principle
       | appears to say that laws of physics are uniform in space. Then,
       | with known matter and forces, this leads to some structure, with
       | fluctuations, and hence some scale over which matter is uniformly
       | distributed.
       | 
       | If we calculate such a scale and find matter is still not uniform
       | at that scale, wouldn't the first conclusion be that there are
       | missing terms in either matter or interactions (or both)? Rather
       | than saying that laws of physics are not space-homogeneous.
       | 
       | The article itself states that the length scale where the c10l
       | principle kicks in is derived from a particular model for matter
       | and interactions (lambda CDM).
       | 
       | I think there is plenty of discrepancies between standard model
       | and observations (most of them small). We don't know what dark
       | matter is, either. So to me the interesting point wouldn't be, is
       | the model wrong, but _how_ is it wrong?
        
         | evgen wrote:
         | > the c10l principle
         | 
         | Don't do this. It is bad enough that every major devops/infra
         | component needs to create some
         | <letter><number_of_missing_letters><letter> tag, but dropping
         | it in to random places is worse than the regular backronyms and
         | cute project names science and tech people use to try to hide
         | complexity. It just adds confusion for no rhyme or reason other
         | than trying to sound like you are a part of some club of
         | insiders.
        
           | rich_sasha wrote:
           | Dude I'm typing on my phone and autocorrect doesn't know
           | "cosmological". There, I spelled it out.
        
           | lurquer wrote:
           | > Don't do this.
           | 
           | Do not do that.
        
           | beeboop wrote:
           | You see it everywhere really. Military and politicians and
           | government orgs all do it to embarrassing lengths too
        
             | EGreg wrote:
             | They also call things polintelcom and codenames like
             | eschelon and prism, doesnt mean it's great practice for us
             | 
             | Btw ESCHELON and Five Eyes coordination existed for so long
             | and people only woke up when Snowden revealed prism
        
               | nextaccountic wrote:
               | the name is echelon
        
         | ianai wrote:
         | Per Sabine H on YouTube ( https://youtu.be/JETGS64kTys ), the
         | cosmological constant might be smaller than called for in
         | current cosmology. That would agree with some other
         | observations.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | teilo wrote:
         | > Rather than saying that laws of physics are not space-
         | homogeneous.
         | 
         | No one is saying that, and if the cosmological principle falls,
         | it does not imply that in the least. It just means we need to
         | revisit our assumptions about things like hyperinflation, dark
         | matter, etc. Even more exciting, it may mean we need to look
         | for the remnants of a force active during the initial inflation
         | of the universe, that can account for the non-uniformity of
         | matter's distribution.
        
           | rich_sasha wrote:
           | Hmm, but if the principle comes with a model-dependent length
           | scale, that experimentally looks wrong, why should I discard
           | the principle when it might as well be an incomplete model?
           | 
           | Or frankly inaccurate estimation, my understanding is that it
           | is extremely hard to actually sully simulate the lambda-CDM
           | model from Big Bang.
        
       | drran wrote:
       | n 2004, New Scientist, published an open letter from Eric Lerner
       | and about 30 other scientists,[1] criticizing the Big Bang
       | theory, and noting that Big Bang theory requires Dark Matter to
       | exists.
       | 
       | <<Without some kind of dark matter, unlike any that we have
       | observed on Earth despite 20 years of experiments, big-bang
       | theory makes contradictory predictions for the density of matter
       | in the universe. Inflation requires a density 20 times larger
       | than that implied by big bang nucleosynthesis, the theory's
       | explanation of the origin of the light elements. And without dark
       | energy, the theory predicts that the universe is only about 8
       | billion years old, which is billions of years younger than the
       | age of many stars in our galaxy.>>
       | 
       | Can we finally abandon Big Shrink (BS) theory? It's obvious now
       | that Oort cloud of Shapley attractor just collided with Dipole
       | Repeller cloud [2].
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.plasma-universe.com/an-open-letter-to-the-
       | scient...
       | 
       | [2]: https://vimeo.com/189355968
        
       | sahil50 wrote:
       | (1/H * c) = (1/a * ke^2 / (electron mass * c^2)) * (h / (proton
       | mass * c * pi/2)) / (2G * proton mass / c^2)
        
         | mkl wrote:
         | What does that mean in this context? How does it relate to the
         | cosmological principle in the article?
        
           | sahil50 wrote:
           | Hubble's constant is related to all the other fundamental
           | constants. And is not a measure of "expansion", which is one
           | of the core ideas of the Standard Model.
           | 
           | Relation to the cosmological principle: self-similarity not
           | just in terms of density and homogeneity, but also macro and
           | micro scales. H, a measure of cosmic stuff, is literally
           | derivable from atomic stuff.
        
             | sharpener wrote:
             | I'm not a cosmologist but...
             | 
             | Is it possible to have both photon tiring and expansion and
             | still measure the same numbers in experiment?
             | 
             | Also wouldn't the arc separation of deep field stars
             | increase detectably with expansion?
        
               | sahil50 wrote:
               | Maybe. But my reasoning is to assume as little as
               | possible and start reasoning up from the point in history
               | where the need for an explanation arose.
               | 
               | And the need for an explanation arose when Hubble saw the
               | redshift. He and Zwicky preferred tired light over
               | galactic recession, but the halfwit academic
               | establishment went with galactic recession.
        
               | sharpener wrote:
               | A fair approach.
               | 
               | Incidentally, I just drew some diagrams and with the
               | assumptions that the Earth is not at the centre of
               | expansion, Earth orbit has extremes (for parallax), and
               | all light only takes straight routes, my second question
               | has a negative answer.
               | 
               | But if one puts a gravitational lens on the view of one
               | of the two stars then (based on a fast doodle though) it
               | looks like maybe expansion could be detected.
        
       | shmageggy wrote:
       | Any time dissenting physics/astronomy opinions show up on here,
       | it's always Sabine Hossenfelder. Is she a lone wolf or the face
       | of a larger community?
        
         | phkahler wrote:
         | I have another error I'd like to discuss with her, but she
         | charges to speak with one of her people. Sorry, I'm not paying
         | for that :-)
        
         | lytefm wrote:
         | I wonder if she heard about the Stationary Universe Model of
         | Peter Ostermann [1]. He argues along similar lines reagarding
         | the inference of dark energy from the supernovae data.
         | 
         | [1] http://www.peter-osterman.org/index.html
        
         | vuldin wrote:
         | She's discussing findings that come from papers written by
         | other scientists, so she is obviously not a lone wolf.
        
         | StephenAmar wrote:
         | I also watch PBS spacetime series.
         | 
         | I think https://youtu.be/dsCjRjA4O7Y is relevant here.
        
         | tlogan wrote:
         | She might be right but, as of now, the evidence shows that she
         | is probably not right.
         | 
         | But as with everything, contrarian point of view is always
         | popular on the internet. And we all want be in the know (have
         | some secret knowledge) thus posts like this are popular.
         | 
         | So if she is really right we will feel like winners - if not,
         | who cares: it is internet.
        
         | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
         | I love her so much. Everything she explains is so crystal
         | clear.
        
         | varjag wrote:
         | She's a new kind of popular science presenter, with refreshing
         | depth and command of the subject that's been lacking in this
         | field for ages. She's popular and popular content is getting HN
         | front page often. Add here the dynamics of social media
         | engagement, meaning that more disputed/controversial topics get
         | promoted and shared more.
         | 
         | As a physicist she does have certain opinions (would be strange
         | if she didn't), they make for good material so naturally she
         | brings it up. The disputed subjects however are a fraction of
         | her content, which includes covering the well established
         | basics.
        
           | dgellow wrote:
           | Her music videos are also awesome :)
        
             | Semaphor wrote:
             | Thanks for the tip.
             | 
             | Her current music video channel [0] and a playlist [1] of
             | her older music videos on her science channel. Some of them
             | are her own songs, others are covers. I'm currently
             | enjoying "Cassandra (Prophet of the Dark)" [2]
             | 
             | [0]:
             | https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCPtRwW9i43BXbCRQa7BJaiA
             | 
             | [1]: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLwgQsqtH9H5ckD-
             | v9Ux3T...
             | 
             | [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PX0k0WfMSi0
        
           | k__ wrote:
           | I like her much more than Harald Lesch or MaiLab.
           | 
           | She makes a smart, but also down to earth impression.
           | 
           | The other science presenters are always so full of themselves
           | that I can't watch them.
        
         | swhalen wrote:
         | I think it's probably fair to say most cosmologists would
         | consider her views marginal, but she is certainly not a crank.
         | My (limited) understanding is that LCDM fits cosmological
         | observations extremely well; however, neither dark matter nor
         | dark energy has actually been shown unambiguously to exist.
         | 'Mainstream' cosmology invariably also includes inflation,
         | which remains essentially a speculative idea unsupported by any
         | hard observational evidence. Sabine Hossenfelder has become a
         | popular commentator by drawing attention to discussions of
         | these and other issues.
        
         | plutonorm wrote:
         | She comes into the field from a mathematical background. In
         | that sense she is an outsider.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | I think she is a really credible voice, given her background in
         | theoretical physics and her matter-of-fact demeanor, plus her
         | tendency to express all the necessary caveats. As such, when
         | you see a dissenting belief from her, you are more likely to
         | have people actually believe there is something there and not
         | just BS. I think this is a major factor - basically, dissenting
         | opinions discussed by Sabine Hossenfelder carry more weight
         | than others.
        
         | hannob wrote:
         | There are a bunch of people with similar thoughts. Just
         | recently a blogpost by Peter Woidt showed up here [1]. While
         | I'm only following this as a lay person I think you can say
         | Woidt and Hossenfelder come from the same corner of "critics of
         | contemporary physics" or however you want to call them.
         | 
         | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28325753
        
           | mdoms wrote:
           | Careful there, you're standing on a Hacker News landmine. For
           | whatever reason, whenever Woit's name is invoked here the
           | downvote brigade is not far away.
        
             | hannob wrote:
             | Huh, is that so? Why?
             | 
             | Anyway, I haven't even said whether I agree with him or not
             | (which tbh wouldn't be very relevant, as I know where my
             | limits are, and judging debates in physics is definitely
             | outside my area of expertise).
        
       | gtsop wrote:
       | I am so excited to see new observations and theories challenging
       | the current model
       | 
       | (Link to earlier comment of mine summarizing what I think is
       | wrong with the established mentality)
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27399696
        
       | oolonthegreat wrote:
       | > It increasingly looks like we live in a region in the universe
       | that happens to have a significantly lower density than the
       | average in the visible universe. This area of underdensity which
       | we live in has been called the "local hole"
       | 
       | that sounds really weird, if the cosmological principle is
       | invalidated, does that mean that we have to reject the Copernican
       | principle as well? the text seems to imply that there is
       | something "special" about our location in the universe.
        
         | raattgift wrote:
         | 1/2
         | 
         | For space reasons I'll cut my reply into two parts. The first
         | discusses the Copernican principle in question, the second
         | answers your question about this specific blog post.
         | 
         | The modern understanding (and name) of the Copernican principle
         | is really owed to mid-20th-century Hermann Bondi's work in
         | general relativity, and it is a generalization of the initial
         | Copernican model of heliocentricity, with the sun at the centre
         | of the universe, and the Earth, other planets, and distant
         | stars tracing out exactly circular concentric orbits around it.
         | 
         | At its most general while still retaining its strength, the
         | Copernican principle says that in a system with certain
         | symmetries, there is no distinguished position on a circular
         | orbit. This is not just orbits within a 4-dimensional
         | spacetime; it applies in certain many-dimensional phase spaces
         | too.
         | 
         | (One can generalize further by giving up some strength and say
         | that most spaces with certain symmetries admit a notion of
         | _typicality_ which applies to any choice of initial momentum
         | almost everywhere in the space. We can then discuss how such a
         | measure breaks in more complicated systems. Consider
         | translational symmetry on the Earth on an overcast moonless
         | night. If you choose a random spot on Earth and then swim or
         | walk a kilometre or ten in any direction, your view of the
         | surface features out to the horizon is unlikely to change. If
         | you found yourself somewhere in a salty body of water nowhere
         | near land you would struggle to tell with any precision where
         | on Earth you were or which compass direction you had moved. If
         | you found yourself somewhere in a sandy desert or flat
         | scrubland far from human settlement and no  "celestial guides"
         | like the position of the sun, again you would struggle to tell
         | with any precision where on Earth you were or the direction you
         | are facing. There are however atypical features of the surface
         | of the Earth which break translation symmetry: coasts, edges of
         | forests, peaks of mountains, human settlements, Manhattan, you
         | name it. Moving from water to land or vice-versa clearly breaks
         | some _global_ notions of typicality. However there is a lot of
         | coast on the Earth. You 'd probably only find complete _a_
         | typicality when close enough to major landmarks like the Great
         | Pyramids of Giza or Niagara Falls. We can also add in a notion
         | of _temporal_ typicality -- sufficiently close to sunrise or
         | sunset, or on starry nights, it is easier to orient oneself
         | towards compass points.)
         | 
         | Our solar system's mass distribution is only approximately
         | spherically symmetric, and planetary orbits are non-circular
         | ellipses, so Copernican heliocentricity holds only
         | approximately. And of course we now know that other stars do
         | not orbit our own (even nearby ones do not move in a circular
         | or even elliptical orbit around it). The Copernican
         | approximation is still _locally_ useful as a basis for
         | comparison with observations, and those led quickly to Kepler
         | discovering the features of stable elliptical orbits, Galileo
         | discovering the large moons of Jupiter and their orbits around
         | it, he and others the phases of various planetary bodies, and
         | ultimately Newtonian gravitation.
         | 
         | Copernican heliocentrism is thus correct in some effective
         | limit: it works as long as we do not look too closely at small
         | details of the sun's wobbles or perturbation of various orbits
         | by Jupiter, and as long as we are only considering things at a
         | solar system scale. (It applies in many other solar systems
         | too: a central mass tends to entrain smaller masses into
         | nearly-circular orbits. And it is useful for comparison studies
         | of star systems where orbits are far from circular (many many
         | comets, strange exoplanets) or where there are two or more
         | stellar masses surrounded by smaller bodies.). And that it is
         | not exactly correct made (and still makes) it even more useful
         | in exploration of the real solar system.
         | 
         | There is a notion of Copernican typicality in galaxies too.
         | There is nothing clearly special about our solar system's place
         | on its orbit through the Milky Way, thanks to the galaxy's
         | approximate axisymmetry. Likewise, except close to the galactic
         | centre, the galactic edge, or well outside the plane of the
         | disc, virtually all star system orbits through the Milky way
         | are highly typical. As in Copernican heliocentrism where the
         | position of Earth at any time isn't particularly special,
         | "Copernican Sgr A* centrism" means the position of the sun
         | isn't particularly special either. Of course we are adapted to
         | "goldilocks" atypicality at the solar system scale: we thrive
         | in a family of approximately 1 a.u. orbits, and would struggle
         | to survive in most others. We are less sensitive to the path
         | our solar system takes through the galaxy.
         | 
         | Next, there is the Copernican principle in cosmology. This
         | Cosmological Principle starts with the greatest symmetry: a
         | universe which looks the same in every direction from every
         | possible vantage point. Cosmology is in many ways a study of
         | how the Cosmological Principle breaks down. It does in various
         | ways:
         | 
         | * Locally, we're on a planet. On a starry night, down looks
         | very different from up. There are our solar system's planets in
         | various directions but not in most directions.
         | 
         | * We're also in a galaxy in a local cluster: from the southern
         | hemisphere we see the galactic bulge. Dust and gas
         | distributions are denser in some directions than others. We can
         | also see satellite galaxies like the large Magellanic cloud. We
         | can also see M31 taking up a surprisingly large solid angle of
         | the sky (more than the moon; it's just that the Andromeda
         | galaxy is dim), and a handful of others.
         | 
         | * There is a Cosmic Web structure to bright clusters of
         | galaxies, and (misleadingly named but definitely sparser)
         | "supervoids" between the filaments of the web. There are also
         | smaller overdensities and underdensities in these large
         | regions.
         | 
         | However, we have not done much damage to the _typicality_ of
         | our vantage point. There are lots of similar star systems in
         | lots of similar galaxies in lots of similar clusters in some
         | area of similar Cosmic Web density.
         | 
         | It is clear, though, that the entire cosmos is not uniform,
         | that there are various boundaries against which one can take an
         | orientation.
         | 
         | Cosmology is also about understanding temporal typicality too.
         | Even in the very early 20th century, there were questions being
         | studied: has the universe always looked like this, with lots of
         | galaxies containing many stars like our own? Trying to answer
         | this question with the _hard requirement_ that any answer be in
         | concordance with available evidence led us to a definite no. In
         | the reddest, dimmest, smallest-solid-angle galaxies we have
         | observed, our sun would be extremely atypical based on its
         | spectral lines indicating elements other than hydrogen and
         | helium, but in less-red, less-dim, less-small-solid-angle
         | galaxies (right up to M31) we see that our sun would be less
         | and less unusual.
         | 
         | We can then think of temporal boundaries: what happens in the
         | very earliest times? What's at the highest redshift (answer:
         | the cosmic microwave background and no bright galaxies)? What
         | does that imply about the deeper past? Does it imply anything
         | about the future?
         | 
         | The concordance cosmology -- the standard cosmology, with
         | \Lambda-CDM serving as its mathematical expression -- works
         | exactly with all these various "distractions" smoothed out.
         | Rather than considering star-filled galaxies forming clusters
         | of various sizes, we consider a _dust_ uniformly scattered
         | through an expanding space, with non-gravitational interactions
         | (radiation pressure) becoming more important in the past and
         | less important in the future. This picture is then deliberately
         | _perturbed_ with features found by astronomers, and those
         | perturbations are studied for their impact. Most remain local,
         | a scale far far from cosmological.
         | 
         | Informally, this means "We don't care what happens inside
         | individual galaxies, each of which is just one mote of the
         | cosmological dust, and we track the components generating the
         | energy-density of a _typical_ point in space as the dust -- or
         | its various components -- dilute with the expansion, or grow
         | denser as we look into the deep past ".
         | 
         | 1/2
        
           | raattgift wrote:
           | 2/2
           | 
           | Some years ago there was no reason to think that the dust was
           | diluting away with any driver other than some single impulse
           | in the distant past. An initial acceleration, followed by an
           | eternity of inertial motion. More recently evidence has
           | tended to disfavour purely inertial motion, driving the study
           | of possible mechanisms for (and expressions of) ongoing
           | acceleration.
           | 
           | A strong enough violation of the cosmological principle --
           | that there is something unexpected and _atypical_ about the
           | local neighbourhood our galaxy cluster is in -- might drive
           | us back to a purely inertial expansion, if that atypicality
           | is causing us to mistake a _local_ gravitational acceleration
           | for a cosmological one. This is the topic of the Hossenfelder
           | blog entry.
           | 
           | However, one possible result is that there is something
           | unexpected about the gravitation in the local neighbourhood,
           | but that it applies in _other_ local neighbourhoods too,
           | including those containing extremely bright sources like
           | quasars, returning us to the problem of accelerated
           | expansion. Real proposals that are under investigation
           | include the dynamical outflow of gas and stars from galaxy
           | clusters, driven by the internals of these clusters and the
           | gravitational influence of neighbouring overdensities (our
           | "local hole" is adjacent to several including the Shapley
           | Supercluster, about 231 Mpc distant). Such processes over
           | cosmological timescales may serve to drive galaxy clusters
           | _towards_ typicality.
           | 
           | There are also many open questions about the intermediate
           | regime between the cosmological scale and the galactic scale
           | each of which can be studied with a much more easy to work
           | with approximation of the full theory of General Relativity.
           | z ~ 0.04-0.55 - ~ 100-250 Mpc is right in that intermediate
           | regime. The growth of our theoretical toolbox may resolve
           | some blurry problem at the length scales that are at the root
           | of the arguments in several of the papers Hossenfelder's blog
           | post refers to. The result might be that the allegedly
           | unexpected local phenomenon ("the local hole") should have
           | been expected after all. See
           | https://astrobites.org/2021/09/01/gravity-on-all-scales/ for
           | some details.
        
         | throwaway81523 wrote:
         | No I don't think it's like that. We know that matter and vacuum
         | clump together at a series of increasing scales: the solar
         | system, our galaxy, the local cluster, some surrounding
         | supercluster, maybe there is a superdupercluster level after
         | that, but the theory being disputed is that the hierarchical
         | clustering stops after those N levels, and after that, the
         | superduperclusters (or whatever) are distributed randomly
         | instead of grouping into even more enormous structures. The
         | idea is that the universe started as a random fluctuation and
         | that the clusters etc. came from a diffusion process, like
         | stripes on a zebra. The stripes are locally correlated, but
         | less so over longer distances.
         | 
         | Sabine H is saying that the clustering goes further than the
         | theory can account for, and that the "local hole" is a feature
         | of this bigger structure, not that it's something special.
         | 
         | Anyway, even if our part of the universe is special, there can
         | be an anthropic explanation, like saying we live on the special
         | part of the Earth that has a habitable climate and is not
         | covered with water.
        
           | Ericson2314 wrote:
           | The local hole doesn't seem so contrarian, as the 600 Mly is
           | smaller than the multiple Gly of the funny quasars.
        
             | throwaway81523 wrote:
             | The multiple-Gly funny quasar clusters are also in tension
             | with the existing theory.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | > the text seems to imply that there is something "special"
         | about our location in the universe.
         | 
         | The counterpoint to the Copernican principle is the anthropic
         | principle: we can only find ourselves in places which support
         | the existence of beings like us.
         | 
         | I have no idea if the density variation even _might_ be
         | important for chances of industrial intelligence, but people
         | have suggested galactic (not just stellar) Goldilocks zones as
         | one requirement (and separately "having a very large moon"), so
         | I also wouldn't automatically dismiss anyone who said it was
         | important.
        
       | Semiapies wrote:
       | In honor of weekend HN: https://xkcd.com/1758/
        
       | sesm wrote:
       | If you are interested in cosmology, there is a series of papers
       | by Gorkavyi building a cyclic universe cosmological model that's
       | entirely based on Einstein's general relativity and doesn't
       | require any quantum gravity theory. It's based on black holes
       | mergers with mass loss and convertion of mass into gravitational
       | waves, that later get captured by black holes again.
       | 
       | https://pos.sissa.it/335/039/
       | 
       | https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/476/1/1384/4848298
       | 
       | https://academic.oup.com/mnras/article/461/3/2929/2608669
       | 
       | https://www.sao.ru/Doc-k8/Science/Public/Bulletin/Vol76/N3/A...
       | (this one is available only in Russian for now)
        
       | JetSetWilly wrote:
       | > Two years ago, I told you about a paper by Subir Sarkar and his
       | colleagues, that showed if one analyses the supernovae data
       | correctly, without assuming that the cosmological principle holds
       | on too short distances, then the evidence for dark energy
       | disappears. That paper has been almost entirely ignored by other
       | scientists.
       | 
       | Is this a case of science advancing one funeral at a time? We
       | have to wait for the dark energy "establishment" do die off?
        
         | rich_sasha wrote:
         | There is more evidence for dark energy. Discrepancies in
         | redshift vs distance are just one, and there are interestingly
         | also other explanations for it.
         | 
         | IIRC in lambda-CDM, if you don't have dark energy, the whole
         | universe just looks very different, eg the structures of
         | galaxies, groups and supergroups etc are not the same.
         | 
         | It might still be wrong, but more nails are needed for this
         | coffin.
        
           | raattgift wrote:
           | The value for \Lambda, the cosmological constant, is tiny and
           | positive. It's so tiny that as we take it to zero, the
           | universe is still filled with clusters spiral and elliptical
           | galaxies with a strong solid-angle-on-the-
           | sky/brightness/redshift relation, and those galaxies filled
           | with the same sorts of stars we see in the sky.
           | 
           | Indeed the evidence available prior to 1998 or so favoured a
           | \Lambda of zero, and the early evidence favouring a tiny
           | positive value was very much a surprise. The Hubble Space
           | telescope had already been running and taking deep views for
           | several years. COBE (https://science.nasa.gov/missions/cobe)
           | and the Saskatoon experiment had already finished. None
           | presaged the results of the Supernova Cosmology Project and
           | High-Z Supernova Search Team. Follow-ons by Hubble (and
           | others) and successors to COBE support the accelerated
           | expansion.
           | 
           | The physical interpretation of the zero versus the tiny
           | positive value is that in the former there was a last early
           | acceleration which ended essentially all at once, with galaxy
           | clusters then moving purely inertially; or alternatively
           | there was an early acceleration which decayed, possibly in
           | several steps, into a tiny persisting constant acceleration
           | well before the formation of the surface of last scattering
           | (the observed cosmic microwave background). Or alternatively
           | there were mutiple sources of acceleration, one very large
           | and which ceased early, and one which has been always-a-small
           | constant.
           | 
           | There are different lines of evidence for how this residual
           | acceleration has evolved. Practically all of it favours it
           | settling down into one constant tiny value in the very early
           | universe, and that the value can be determined with ever
           | greater precision mostly by studying the fine detail in the
           | cosmic microwave background and the various observables of
           | highly red, dim, low-angular-diameter galaxies backlit by
           | quasars and internally lit both by quasars and supernovae.
           | The exact value is a matter of active research, as some of
           | the data is conflicting.
           | 
           | None of the data disfavours _some_ ongoing acceleration, and
           | the conflict is generally within 10%. As an example of the
           | physical consequences of the discrepency, the lower value
           | means we can see more galaxies (and more galaxies will be
           | able to see the light from the Crab supernova and other
           | historical galactic supernovae), while the higher value fewer
           | galaxies we can see and a _lot_ fewer galaxies who could see
           | a recent supernova within the Milky Way.
           | 
           | There are also various ideas that the tiny value of \Lambda
           | is not constant but continues to evolve. Most of these
           | unfailingly generate observables consistent with a new non-
           | vanishing long-range force to accompany electromagnetism and
           | gravitation, and such an extra ("fifth") force is almost
           | wholly ruled out by evidence. Some store up this fifth
           | force's energy until local matter-energy density is very low
           | (trillions of trillions of years in our future) and unhide it
           | then at various powers (often very high, in an essentially
           | global phase change).
           | 
           | Attempts to remove ongoing acceleration altogether by setting
           | \Lambda to zero seem somewhat contrived. A typical approach
           | is to assume that the universe is much less homogeneous than
           | it appears, and that we are being mislead by being in a
           | highly unusual place exceptionally close to the centre of a
           | large matter underdensity. This was of interest to several
           | teams of theoreticians (Clifton, February) around 2008-2009,
           | as they developed specific models -- _within_ general
           | relativity as the theory of gravitation -- in order to try to
           | distinguish whole families of such models from the standard
           | cosmology rather than outright advocating for those models in
           | preference to the standard cosmology. More broadly, this is
           | related to cosmologies that are wildly inhomogeneous at large
           | scales compared to the standard cosmology, such that in some
           | greater-than-galaxy-sized regions of spacetime the matter is
           | much older than in others (in Wiltshire 's voids, and in
           | dense areas close to their boundaries, clocks run a lot more
           | quickly so observers will see outside-the-void matter as
           | gravitationally (collapse) rather than cosmologically
           | (accelerated expansion) redshifted). Some of these models are
           | designed to explore how one can generate an averaging
           | procedure for general curved spacetimes, or at least for
           | "lumpy" 3+1-dimensional ones, rather than to really challenge
           | the most general form of the Copernican principle (i.e., they
           | don't really want to put Earth pretty much at the centre of
           | the universe).
           | 
           | Motivations do vary though; there are some productive
           | everyday cosmologists whose single-author papers occasionally
           | develop alternatives to the standard cosmology that fit
           | closer to some scripture or other. There are also some
           | modified gravity proponents (some of whom work every day with
           | the standard cosmology) whose theories of gravitation "need
           | help" from a favourable distribution of matter that picks out
           | the region around us as atypical.
        
           | michelpp wrote:
           | Sarkar addresses this other evidence in this interview:
           | 
           | https://youtu.be/JJzU9hDjiRk?t=819
           | 
           | In summary, there is a strong selection bias in cosmology
           | toward the standard model which induces "predictions" that
           | confirm themselves. One bit of evidence he presents, dozens
           | of studies were found to be within one sigma of the wmap
           | measurement and not naturally distributed as one would
           | expect.
        
           | The_rationalist wrote:
           | MOND lead to less paradoxes/mispredictions than dark
           | matter/energy
        
           | whatshisface wrote:
           | One thing that can happen when you are doing computer
           | modeling to find the input parameters that explain your
           | observations is getting stuck in a local maximum. I am
           | absolutely ready to believe that eliminating dark energy from
           | current models makes their results look less like the real
           | universe, but the number of re-runs that would be required to
           | sample the entire parameter space and demonstrate that there
           | were no other parameterizations that looked like our universe
           | would be enormous, and if you include the possibility of new
           | theories, infinite.
           | 
           | There would either have to be some kind of theoretical reason
           | to think that the best known parameterization of a simulated
           | lambda-CDM universe is not merely a local maximum, or the
           | parameters would have to be well-constrained, by
           | observations, so that the free parameter space was small
           | enough to exhaustively explore. I am not aware of either
           | condition being true so I will express some skepticism about
           | the conclusions from the models. Nonetheless, my lack of
           | knowledge about those conditions is not very strong evidence
           | for their absence, and I know there could be someone reading
           | this and feeling very annoyed that I don't know about the
           | Backhausen-Thule principle, or whatever piece completes this
           | puzzle. (Your contribution to the discussion, oh annoyed
           | reader, would be greatly appreciated.)
        
         | neuronic wrote:
         | Of course. Science is just a chase for grant money. Lots of
         | entertainment money to be earned and documentaries can be made
         | about "dark energy".
         | 
         | Knowledge discovery is secondary or tertiary to modern science.
         | The field is full of greedy egomaniacs, leaving the honest
         | scientists at a competitive disadvantage. It's about reputation
         | and $$$.
        
         | analog31 wrote:
         | I think this is an aside to what you're asking, but "science
         | advances one funeral at a time" was a clever slogan and not an
         | empirically tested hypothesis.
        
         | avereveard wrote:
         | > without assuming that the cosmological principle holds on too
         | short distances
         | 
         | There's still the problem of colliding galaxies showing a
         | weakly interacting centroid that's shifted compared to the
         | masses but interacts with the visible masses. If truly are
         | variation in the local constants, then one has to explain why
         | these variations shows inertia, at such point it starts looking
         | more and more like matter
        
           | mdturnerphys wrote:
           | That is evidence for dark matter, not dark energy.
        
           | Ericson2314 wrote:
           | That's about dark matter, this was about dark energy.
        
         | The_rationalist wrote:
         | Is this related to MOND?
        
         | Svoka wrote:
         | That would be true if young scientists wouldn't continuously
         | make successful predictions based on cosmological principle
         | among other observable effects of the general relativity and
         | standard model. Make observable prediction, coherent thesis,
         | then we'll talk. Of course our models are not perfect, but it
         | is best we have. Physics so far never dealt in "fundamental
         | truths", just good enough models. So far, this is best we got.
        
           | zeven7 wrote:
           | I'd argue that Einstein in particular cared a lot about
           | "fundamental truths".
           | 
           | Not everyone can be Einstein, but I'm glad some people care
           | about asking deeper questions.
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | He cared about fundamental truths, but he didn't think we
             | had them.
             | 
             | " all our science, measured against reality, is primitive
             | and childlike -- and yet it is the most precious thing we
             | have."
             | 
             | The best we can ever say about science is that it is
             | useful, that's what truth means in science, that it
             | produces accurate predictions. Truth in any deeper sense is
             | a matter for philosophers.
        
             | kkylin wrote:
             | I don't disagree with your point, but do want to add that
             | not publishing on "fundamental truths" isn't the same as
             | not asking those questions. Not everyone's going to have
             | something novel, plausible, and fundamental to say on a
             | regular basis, hence most publications (even if everyone's
             | asking these questions, which granted they're probably not)
             | are going to be much more incremental.
        
             | rich_sasha wrote:
             | Ironically, it was Einstein who introduced the
             | "cosmological constant" (and thus indirectly dark energy).
             | I think later in life he called it a glorified fudge factor
             | and his biggest regret.
        
               | raattgift wrote:
               | Wikipedia covers this sufficiently at https://en.wikipedi
               | a.org/wiki/Cosmological_constant#Sequence...
               | 
               | The five-line tl;dr: non-expanding cosmologies with no
               | big bang but lots of galaxies tend to collapse in finite
               | time. One can avoid collapse with a positive cosmological
               | constant. That approach predated the work of Hubble
               | (expansion) and Lemaitre (big bang). Expanding
               | cosmologies with a sufficiently large initial big bang do
               | not need a cosmological constant to keep expanding
               | forever. Einstein, not being stupid, recognized that and
               | carried on.
               | 
               | Since 1998: an accelerating expanding universe is
               | inconsistent with just a single big bang as impulse, but
               | is consistent with a small positive cosmological
               | constant.
               | 
               | Einstein and Schrodinger certainly discussed whether to
               | treat the cosmological constant as an energy entering
               | into the right hand side of the Einstein Field Equations
               | instead of a multiplier on the metric in the left hand
               | side: [Harvey 2012] https://arxiv.org/abs/1211.6338 Their
               | conclusion is that choice of side is principally a matter
               | of aesthetics, and that remains true today.
               | 
               | Harvey2012 SS5 is a good reminder not to put too much
               | weight into the early days of general relativity. Exact
               | solutions were few and simple but still extraordinarily
               | hard to work with by hand. Numerical approaches didn't
               | exist, nor did formalisms that provide post-Newtonian
               | approximations that are more tractable. Realistic
               | distributions of matter were largely as-yet undiscovered
               | (compare 1917 introduction of cosmological constant and
               | low estimates of the number of spiral galaxies in the
               | sky, their mass, and the light-travel distance to them:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Debate_(astronomy)
               | which came _later_ ).
               | 
               | Einstein's adaptation to the flood of astronomical
               | discoveries during his productive lifetime is part of
               | what made him _Einstein_ rather than any less celebrated
               | figure.
        
       | didibus wrote:
       | > Physicists believe they understand quite well how the universe
       | works on large scales
       | 
       | Why would a physicist write an article and talk about physicists
       | like they were some mystical "other" single minded group of
       | people. I just hate that characterization, so unhelpful and
       | damaging in my opinion, and kind of manipulative to open up an
       | article with that.
       | 
       | I don't actually believe most physicist believe they understand
       | how the universe works, I think most of them feel like there's
       | still so much they don't understand, that it's probably why they
       | wanted to become a physicist in the first place. But I might also
       | be wrong, and in any case, you just shouldn't start your article
       | with a big fallacious generalization that has no data or
       | rationale to back itself up and also somehow position yourself as
       | some sort of "knows better".
        
       | JoBrad wrote:
       | Side tangent: Why are most of her numbers, except dates, spelled
       | out? Is this some convention specific to her country of origin or
       | something?
        
         | platz wrote:
         | This is a transcript of the video embedded below. Some of the
         | explanations may not make sense without the animations in the
         | video.
        
         | tsimionescu wrote:
         | Which numbers are you referring to? "3 billion" instead of
         | "3,000,000,000"? That could just be efficiency of typing (not
         | to mention, German uses , and . inversely from English: Pi is
         | 3,1415... in German writing, while a thousand is 1.000).
        
           | JoBrad wrote:
           | I was thinking of this paragraph. However, after I re-read
           | the article, it seems that there are other numbers that
           | aren't spelled out. Maybe it was an auto-transcription?
           | 
           | > Already in nineteen-ninety-one they found the Clowes-
           | Campusano-Quasar group, which is a collection of thirty-four
           | Quasars, about nine point five Billion light years away from
           | us and it extends over two Billion Light-years, clearly too
           | large to be compatible with the prediction from the
           | concordance model.
        
           | CurtHagenlocher wrote:
           | Yes, but a German billion isn't the same as an American
           | billion either... .
        
       | codethief wrote:
       | > Two years ago, I told you about a paper by Subir Sarkar and his
       | colleagues, that showed if one analyses the supernovae data
       | correctly, without assuming that the cosmological principle holds
       | on too short distances, then the evidence for dark energy
       | disappears. That paper has been almost entirely ignored by other
       | scientists.
       | 
       | I suppose she's referring to the things discussed in her
       | interview with Sarkar here ->
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1mwYxkhMe8 .
       | 
       | I can't claim I understand the details of what Sarkar is talking
       | about since I dabbled in cosmology only very briefly but I at
       | least made sure to forward the interview to my former advisor
       | (whose name is on several hundreds of papers on cosmology and
       | astrophysics, including those of the PLANCK collaboration and
       | several others) and his response was along the lines of:
       | 
       | > I appreciate Subir Sarkar very much but I'm afraid I don't
       | agree with barely any of his statements. He never looks at the
       | full picture but only individual pieces and then he ends up
       | modifying those until look prettier individually but no longer
       | fit the rest of the cosmological model.
        
         | DudeInBasement wrote:
         | I need more grant money to keep looking for dark garbage. I
         | can't be bothered to question my grants
        
       | DinosaurShampoo wrote:
       | If even the Cosmological constant is debunked,there's truly no
       | rules to what's possible.
        
       | sahil50 wrote:
       | Another problem with the standard model is attributing the
       | cosmological redshift to the Doppler effect.
        
         | FridayoLeary wrote:
         | could you pls elaborate on that?
        
           | JPLeRouzic wrote:
           | sahil50 posted this 2 months ago:
           | 
           | https://colab.research.google.com/drive/1K1qoUFvqZp1fWbpcKJW.
           | ..
        
           | andyjohnson0 wrote:
           | I'm not the parent commenter, and I'm not a physicist, but
           | this might be a reference to the non-mainstream theories that
           | are often grouped under the heading of "plasma cosmology".
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plasma_cosmology
        
           | sahil50 wrote:
           | What Hubble objectively measured wasn't galaxies receding. He
           | measured redshift. Or photon energy loss.
           | 
           | And there's another way to explain this, that is simpler,
           | self-consistent, and doesn't require the concept of
           | "inflation" where apparently space expanded faster than the
           | speed of light.
           | 
           | The explanation: photon hubbling, tired light. That galaxies
           | are frankly right where they are. They're not receding. The
           | photon loses energy. It costs energy to forge a path through
           | spacetime.
        
             | naasking wrote:
             | "Tired light" has failed other tests, so it's probably not
             | the answer.
        
               | sahil50 wrote:
               | How so?
               | 
               | Considering all the data on redshift we have, tired light
               | fits. Not galactic recession.
               | 
               | Rough calculations https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d
               | /1HI61-pDIzzSItw48K0ga...
               | 
               | Data from https://ned.ipac.caltech.edu/Library/Distances/
        
               | phaemon wrote:
               | Galaxies are either approaching or receding from our
               | perspective. How could they possibly be stuck in some
               | "place"? Your theory makes no sense.
        
               | sahil50 wrote:
               | How do you know?
        
               | phaemon wrote:
               | How do I know that two objects are either receding or
               | approaching? Because it's obvious. Think about it
               | yourself.
               | 
               | Edit: ah, wait, your theory says that approaching objects
               | look the same as receding ones. I think you need to
               | justify that.
        
               | sahil50 wrote:
               | You misread.
               | 
               | The cosmological redshift is not attributable to galaxies
               | receding.
               | 
               | The cosmological redshift is photons losing energy as
               | they forge a path through the gravitationally connected
               | universe. It's the cost of traveling.
               | 
               | Total redshift = Cosmological redshift (photon forging a
               | path through spacetime) + Doppler redshift (for example,
               | Andromeda drifting toward us) + Gravitational redshift
               | (like how Sun-to-Earth photons are redshifted because the
               | Sun is more massive)
        
         | teilo wrote:
         | As opposed to what?
        
           | sahil50 wrote:
           | Photon hubbling, tired light. The photon is doing work as it
           | moves through spacetime. Modeled as E_t / E_0 = e^(-Ht),
           | where H is Hubble's constant, and t is time of travel.
        
           | drran wrote:
           | As opposed to one of "tired light" models.
           | 
           | Light is not immortal, so it loses some energy with time.
           | E.g. gravitational noise can affect photon energy, or photon
           | can lose some energy to medium due to friction, or photon can
           | lose some energy because of truncation of ideal sinusoidal
           | wave at Planck scale, or speed of light is a bit slower than
           | c (because light arrived 16 seconds later than gravitational
           | waves, when gravitational waves were discovered), thus photon
           | is not frozen in time and expands at very slow rate.
        
             | zozbot234 wrote:
             | The standard argument against 'tired light' is that it
             | should lead to scattering of light from more distant
             | objects, but this has not been observed in the data.
        
               | drran wrote:
               | The intensity of scattering is proportional to loss of
               | energy. It is impossible to detect such low scattering
               | level in our visible Universe because it is full of
               | gasses and dust, which created many many orders of
               | magnitude stronger scattering, which is still hard to
               | notice except for very bright objects near to dense
               | clouds of dust. It's not possible to confirm or
               | disapprove this argument yet.
               | 
               | Moreover, if we are talking about friction and medium
               | (the Ether), then it was predicted long time ago[1], that
               | discussion will be resolved in favor of Ether when Higgs
               | field will be discovered, because Higgs field must be
               | present everywhere, like Ether, and because medium is
               | required for transverse waves to propagate. Discovery of
               | Higgs boson and Higgs field was announced in 2012, so
               | discussion is resolved, but we still call the medium as
               | (physical, quantum) vacuum, like we still call atom as
               | atom (<<unbreakable>>) after breaking it, or we use <<->>
               | for presence of electrons instead of absence of
               | electrons.
               | 
               | (non-native speaker)
               | 
               | [1]:
               | https://physicstoday.scitation.org/doi/10.1063/1.882562
        
               | sahil50 wrote:
               | The standard argument is a straw man argument. Tired
               | light is not photons getting scattered, and is not
               | photons bumping into stray electrons.
               | 
               | Tired light is because there is a cost to traveling
               | through spacetime. The photon is warping the shape of all
               | the universe mass around it. The photon is doing work.
        
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