[HN Gopher] In a patch of Arizona, everyone knows Waymo, but few...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       In a patch of Arizona, everyone knows Waymo, but few use it
        
       Author : nojito
       Score  : 67 points
       Date   : 2021-08-28 13:20 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.morningbrew.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.morningbrew.com)
        
       | onelovetwo wrote:
       | Who would've thought no one wants to be recorded or be monitored
       | while driving
        
         | perl4ever wrote:
         | I have no idea, but this makes me think of something I forget
         | the word for.
         | 
         | It's when you have a reason for doing or not doing something,
         | and you assume you're the only one, but really, everybody else
         | has the same reason.
         | 
         | As a result, everybody is passive and doesn't act like they
         | would if they knew everyone agreed.
         | 
         | It's the opposite of
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/False_consensus_effect
         | 
         | Ah, this is it:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pluralistic_ignorance
         | 
         | The nice thing about a "false consensus", of course, is that
         | someone who believes in it can tell others they are victims of
         | "pluralistic ignorance" and once enough people are brainwashed,
         | it's a _true_ consensus!
        
       | ghaff wrote:
       | I'm not sure what the story is here. I'm as skeptical of Waymo as
       | anyone but a _lot_ of people basically don 't take
       | Uber/Lyft/taxis on anything like a regular basis.
       | 
       | I realize a fair number of readers here probably live in cities
       | and maybe don't have cars. But, in my case, I live outside a
       | major city and, while in normal times, I do take reserved cars
       | back and forth to the airport, I haven't taken a taxi/Uber/Lyft
       | around where I live for many years. I do take them maybe a dozen
       | times a year but that's when I'm traveling.
       | 
       | So the fact that there's relatively little use of Waymo in the
       | Phoenix suburban sprawl where it operates doesn't seem especially
       | noteworthy.
        
         | typon wrote:
         | You don't think $3.5 Billion spent on a project with little
         | customers is noteworthy?
        
           | vikramkr wrote:
           | It's still an R&D effort- once they've spent that much on
           | manufacturing and marketing, if they still have few customers
           | then thats something else
        
             | avg_dev wrote:
             | Once it works properly, you won't need to spend anything at
             | all on marketing... people will flock to it in droves.
             | 
             | Trucking will be up-ended. Freight will change. People will
             | in a short period of time stop owning cars and call them as
             | needed.
             | 
             | I'm just not sure we'll ever get there.
        
               | nytesky wrote:
               | Not owning a car seems hard for anyone with a life more
               | complicated than single office drone. I often need to
               | stash kids equipment in the car for later pickup; we keep
               | medicine and books in the car used often, strollers,
               | umbrellas, not to mention car seats. That's a lot of
               | stuff to lug between Uber to Uber. People who play sports
               | after work, sales folks traveling with merchandise, etc.
               | cars are a home away from home in our lifestyles.
        
               | jnwatson wrote:
               | Lots of middle class folks from across the world have
               | families and don't have cars. There are ways of life
               | other than living in a SFH on a quarter acre an hour
               | commute from work.
               | 
               | It is quite possible and even more convenient to live in
               | a place with walkable areas and good public transit.
        
               | 908B64B197 wrote:
               | Waymo might end up replacing the second car, or get
               | someone to travel the last miles to public transportation
               | for the daily commute.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | The combination of ride-share, Zipcar, and traditional
               | rentals (plus scattered improvements in public transit
               | and bike infrastructure in some places) has already done
               | that to some degree. It's not about the person who needs
               | to get in a car every time they go somewhere from their
               | house. It's about replacing the car that maybe gets
               | driven once or twice a week.
        
               | upbeat_general wrote:
               | All these problems apply to anyone without a car
               | anywhere. People in major cities with good transit
               | systems figure it out, I don't see how this is any
               | different. In fact, it's certainly preferable to a
               | train/bike in terms of space to transport things.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Also cars equipped with boat racks, bike racks--often
               | fairly specialized for specific equipment. Loading up
               | cars the night before for a trip. Could definitely make a
               | difference at the margins in cities but you already have
               | Uber.
               | 
               | This might cut price in half? A lot of people seem to
               | assume that this makes taxi rides almost too cheap to
               | meter relative to owning a car or taking an Uber. And I'm
               | pretty sure that's not true. You don't pay yourself to
               | drive and the US IRS deduction for mileage is something
               | like 50 cents per mile. That's probably a pretty good
               | floor for a robo-taxi including the mileage it takes to
               | get to you.
        
               | Closi wrote:
               | IMO Society will adapt and people will find different
               | solutions for these things. Take for instance two
               | scenarios:
               | 
               | * London - I used to live there and commute on the tube.
               | Not everyone uses a car on a regular basis, except maybe
               | to go to the supermarket. I didn't find it particularly
               | hard to bring my sportswear in a bag and put a kindle in
               | my jacket pocket. I assume New York is the same!
               | 
               | * Amsterdam and The Hague - I used to travel to these
               | cities often, and these societies exist almost entirely
               | on bike.
               | 
               | I have a car, but also manage to walk into work and not
               | bring everything with me everywhere. It just seems like
               | the assumption is "it will only work if it can support me
               | doing exactly what I do now", but this sort of technology
               | has the potential to completely change the way people
               | work and live.
        
               | novok wrote:
               | TBH I think there are all solutions to that when you have
               | a big enough fleet. Rent a cargo van, rent a car for the
               | day for storage, more storage options at places, rent a
               | car with car seats for several years and sport equipment
               | racks. When family is over, automatically scale with 3 or
               | 4 cars, etc.
               | 
               | You could make specialized cars that would be way more
               | convenient than the typical suv, but no person would keep
               | as their permanent car configuration. I could see vans
               | with roll in bike racks for example, which is more
               | convenient than latching it on top of the typical suv
               | sports rack for example. Groceries and other retail
               | shopping I could see you just drop in the little cart
               | drone and it gets to your house before you do, already in
               | the pantry, etc. Grocery drones will be well insulated
               | coolers, which is better than your typical suburban
               | shopping trip freshness wise. No more melted ice cream
               | anxiety when you remember something.
        
               | AtlasBarfed wrote:
               | Trucking and highway driving are so much easier. And will
               | probably be solved far sooner by other people, and Waymo
               | will have missed an obvious stepping stone, business
               | scaler, revenue stream.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | I'm pretty sure we'll see this on certain highways in
               | certain weather conditions--which would actually be a
               | killer feature for a lot of us. But it doesn't
               | fundamentally change car ownership and use--and may or
               | may not change trucking.
        
               | nytesky wrote:
               | Yeah, the actual driving part is just part of the job.
               | You would need personnel at every stop along the route to
               | handle refueling or changing trailers. As well security
               | concerns to an unmanned vehicle laden with goods. I mean
               | an automated cruise control would allow night driving and
               | such some savings there.
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | Eh, imagine two drivers for eight trucks... Takes care of
               | the security problem, so long as the US doesn't devolve
               | into road banditry, and the humans can handle refueling,
               | and the trucks can drive without the usual restrictions
               | on human fatigue.
        
               | kc0bfv wrote:
               | "Once it works properly, you won't need to spend anything
               | at all on marketing... people will flock to it in
               | droves."
               | 
               | I agree.
               | 
               | However this really remains to be seen. If Waymo got
               | everything working as right as they could it might still
               | fail. This is a culture shift you're talking about, and
               | even when past tech has required less to shift some has
               | failed.
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | Personally I'm not convinced that Waymo isn't continuing to
           | flush a whole lot of money down the toilet. But this is a
           | test/prototype in an area where I assume most households own
           | cars and rarely take taxis and ride shares around the local
           | area. So the fact that not a lot of people are taking a Waymo
           | except maybe for the novelty is utterly unsurprising.
        
           | bastawhiz wrote:
           | But their Arizona test is just that, a test. They are (or at
           | least they state that they're) polishing the experience of
           | using the service. What better place to do that than in a
           | place where demand isn't going to be especially high, with
           | ideal weather and lots of well-kept roads? Surely nobody
           | thinks the Arizona service is Waymo's best stab at a
           | productionalized offering.
        
         | stefan_ wrote:
         | They opened up a pork shop in a muslim area and we're not
         | supposed to question that? These are the people supposed to
         | make cars autonomous and they are utterly ignorant to all these
         | things? Is it designed to fail or are they stuck in the
         | suburban sprawl because that's the only place where the thing
         | will not practically fail and kill someone?
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | It might be safe to assume that Waymo management has given
           | more than a passing thought to their test location.
        
             | HWR_14 wrote:
             | Waymo's test location was driven by Arizona's friendly
             | legal environment.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | bobthepanda wrote:
           | these suburban sprawl places were also very gung ho about
           | rolling out the regulatory equivalent of a red carpet. I'm
           | not aware of any major city that has nearly as permissive
           | autonomous regulations in their central area, probably
           | because of concerns about reliability.
           | 
           | then the question becomes chicken and egg.
        
       | gumby wrote:
       | There were two interesting nuggets in here:
       | 
       | > Waymo has also partnered with organizations--most recently, the
       | Southern Christian Leadership Conference
       | 
       | This is odd to me. I don't see the connection. What am I missing?
       | 
       | > Waymo walked away from the term "self-driving" this January in
       | favor of a more precise, multisyllabic "fully autonomous driving
       | tech."
       | 
       | I assume this is because Tesla marketing had polluted the term?
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | >> Waymo has also partnered with organizations--most recently,
         | the Southern Christian Leadership Conference
         | 
         | >This is odd to me. I don't see the connection. What am I
         | missing?
         | 
         | The SCLC is a civil rights organization that advocates for
         | social justice. Waymo partnering with them is a signal they
         | want to make sure the Waymo cars don't avoid poor parts of
         | town, are too cost prohibitive, etc.
         | 
         | The SCLC also has a strong "get voters to the polls" effort. I
         | can see Waymo volunteering rides to people's polling stations.
        
           | b9a2cab5 wrote:
           | Hah, the moment those Waymo cars go into poor areas they're
           | going to get ransacked. I used to live in a poor area and got
           | daily notifications of catalytic converters being stolen.
           | There's tens of thousands of dollars of tech on that car and
           | you can stop it by just standing in front of it. Cameras
           | haven't exactly stopped thieves from doing what they do in
           | the past.
        
       | hamburgerwah wrote:
       | I really don't understand the pervasive idea that we are going to
       | hold robot cars to so much of a higher standard than human
       | drivers. I'll take 1.2x . Human drivers kill a lot of people
       | every year in what are largely preventable accidents. Lets use
       | robot cars in places that it makes sense to do so and save some
       | lives and they'll get better over time.
        
         | fma wrote:
         | It's usually the optics/media that will torpedo the effort.
         | "Big scary robot car was in an accident".
         | 
         | Proof? 13 American soldiers died in Afghanistan in a combat
         | zone and people are up in arms. 1800 Americans died yesterday
         | from covid while going about their daily lives and it's pretty
         | mum.
        
         | joe_the_user wrote:
         | Self-driving cars are nowhere as safe as humans per mile.
         | People touting self-driving cars like to talk about human
         | accidents but people are remarkably safe per mile. Self-driving
         | cars don't have that many accidents attributed to them but they
         | haven't driven very much compared to humans.
        
         | novok wrote:
         | I think the issue is the kind of accidents will be very
         | different from humans, uncomfortable and very fatal. You also
         | have to compare against sober and awake drivers, not 'the
         | typical driver', because you have a choice to be sober and
         | awake if you're more safety minded, while you don't really have
         | those choices with AI driving.
         | 
         | Like tesla cars going straight into concrete barriers on
         | highway exits instead of down the 2 lane options on autopilot
         | mode.
        
       | newobj wrote:
       | Wut? Phoenix metro area is not the bay or Seattle or NY. Everyone
       | out there has cars. It's hot as hell and things are spread out.
       | Spend any time there: there are only cars. Anyone on a bus is
       | down on their luck. Same with bicyclists, either that or they are
       | bike maniacs biking for political or health reasons. tldr anyone
       | not using a car is already not in Waymos target audience because
       | they can't afford a taxi or are just really determined to ride a
       | bike.
       | 
       | Downtown Phoenix, or ASU (students), or downtown Scottsdale
       | (drunk night life) would have been the better test locations.
       | 
       | Chandler? Wow
        
         | crazygringo wrote:
         | I'm curious who _is_ taking the Waymos then.
         | 
         | Senior citizens who aren't comfortable driving anymore? When
         | other family members have taken all the cars but you still need
         | to get somewhere? When your car's being repaired?
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | Those seem like valid use cases. From the numbers I saw this
           | is only about 0.01% of the population per day.
        
         | ghaff wrote:
         | I think you've answered your own question. They don't want
         | drunk nightlife for these early tests. They want as predictable
         | and car centric as possible.
        
           | mchusma wrote:
           | Which is fine, but if you can't use it as a designated
           | driver, to the airport, or to most locations near you, it
           | just isn't much of a taxi service.
           | 
           | I think the real answer here is they clearly don't really
           | want people to use it yet. They just want to say they are the
           | first robotaxi.
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | They presumably mostly care about running a proof of
             | concept at limited scale in as safe and boring an
             | environment as they can without making it totally
             | artificial. They also presumably don't really care about it
             | being a generally useful taxi service as long as they can
             | get some riders, which they seem to be doing.
        
             | shadilay wrote:
             | There's also an enormous amount of work to be done figuring
             | out autonomous fleet operations and optimizing that.
        
       | xyzzy21 wrote:
       | Very true. Waymos are held in considerable contempt in Chandler.
       | Local HATE them (we have a plant in Chandler).
       | 
       | But more broadly, the "learning territory" is bizarrely and truly
       | inapplicable to 99% of the rest of roadways in the USA.
       | 
       | Chandler roads are:
       | 
       | * Unusually flat * Unusually broad * Unusually straight *
       | Unusually well-lit at high sun angles (no shadows) * Unusually
       | good weather most of the time (ignoring Haboob sand storms and
       | monsoon downpours that happen for a few weeks in the summer) *
       | Unusually light traffic (compared to any urban center)
       | 
       | Honestly they are a MINIMUM of 20-50 year away from "any road in
       | the USA" and that still presumes radical and unknown improvements
       | in the technology arriving in a timely fashion!
       | 
       | I'm not holding my breath on this technology! I'm OK if someone
       | wants to blow through some serious cash - that's their choice.
       | But it's not going to pay off any time soon. Fools may believe
       | otherwise but fools and their money are quickly parted and that's
       | on the fools.
        
         | porb121 wrote:
         | 50 years? That's like... the entire history of modern
         | computing.
        
         | novok wrote:
         | Why do they hate them?
        
         | teruakohatu wrote:
         | > Local HATE them... truly inapplicable to 99% of the rest of
         | roadways in the USA.
         | 
         | Have you considered they might be training the vehicles on you,
         | not the roads? At some point roads become a solved problem and
         | understanding/anticipating other drivers becomes thr hard
         | problem.
        
           | upbeat_general wrote:
           | Yeah this is definitely most of it. Bad weather certainly
           | doesn't help and can be a problem but people are the main
           | issue.
        
         | Matrixik wrote:
         | That's why they are now expanding to San Francisco:
         | 
         | https://arstechnica.com/cars/2021/05/real-robotaxi-service-g...
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | That's encouraging. It's hard, and there's a market. If and
           | when they can eliminate the "safety driver", it's real.
           | 
           | DMV has three levels of license for self-driving vehicles.
           | 
           | - "Testing with a driver". This has about the same
           | restrictions as a learner's permit - must have a licensed
           | driver onboard, no vehicles over 10,000 lbs, no carrying
           | passengers for hire. Over 50 companies have that license.
           | Uber flunked this and had their license to drive autonomously
           | revoked in 2016. So Uber went to Arizona and killed a
           | pedestrian. Then Arizona suspended their license and Uber
           | stopped.
           | 
           | - "Testing without a driver". This is tougher to get. There
           | are specific technical requirements. There are communications
           | requirements. A "law enforcement interaction plan" ("How do
           | we stop this thing?") SAE Level 4 or 5 is required; 3 is not
           | good enough. Operation may be restricted to certain types of
           | roads (freeway, campus) and limited in speed. Eight companies
           | have this license now, which is encouraging.
           | 
           | - "Deployment". Only one company has qualified: Nuro, which
           | makes slow-speed shuttle buses. This is the Commercial
           | Drivers License level for self-driving vehicles.
           | 
           | DMV has a staged approach. It seems to work. Companies can
           | test, and failures get reported and publicized. Complaints
           | about the California DMV being too restrictive about testing
           | have subsided. Most of the companies that couldn't meet the
           | requirements are gone.
           | 
           | There's slow, steady progress. Alphabet/Waymo and GM/Cruise
           | are getting close to deployable systems.
        
           | viscanti wrote:
           | It's a PR stunt and an attempt to continue to show "progress"
           | so they can keep getting funding. Their current design
           | requires up-to-date ultra high definition 3d mapping, perfect
           | weather conditions, and a minimal amount of traffic
           | weirdness. Maybe 5g gives them a way to keep up to date 3d
           | maps onboard, but even if that works out the data costs and
           | cost to continually re-map the streets makes it so the unit
           | economics don't work. It's not like they just need a few more
           | miles of "learning", the foundation of their entire strategy
           | is flawed and can't scale.
        
             | Matrixik wrote:
             | It's not in this article but I read it in other on ars that
             | they go to SF because it turns out that they was on too
             | easy roads.
        
             | amacneil wrote:
             | Weather and traffic - fair criticisms.
             | 
             | HD Maps - really aren't as difficult as you're making them
             | out to be. Most AV companies can update their maps using
             | sensor data from their own fleet. And the cars need to
             | recharge/service at a facility every few hours anyway. So
             | there certainly isn't any need for 5g or expensive cell
             | data to make HD maps scale.
        
       | novok wrote:
       | I think waymo's best customers in suburban america would be the
       | old and young people who cannot drive themselves and cannot walk
       | to their destinations. Waymo to shuttle your 10 year old
       | unsupervised to school and back, your 70 year old grandma who a
       | cannot drive anymore and disabled people who cannot drive would
       | be amazing in those communities, but in both cases, they are
       | either not allowed, or are too old to use a smartphone
       | effectively too. I wonder if waymo has human phone dispatchers,
       | which is something I could see the old people being more into, if
       | it would result in way more usage by that segment.
        
       | gfodor wrote:
       | Ultimately if robocars work, the little anecdotes you hear about
       | people trusting them after the first ride seems to me to confirm
       | we shouldn't expect human factors to kill them.
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | Do people not trust that the cars won't kill them, or do they
         | not trust them because they are part of a panopticon?
        
           | brainwad wrote:
           | From the article, it sounds like they mostly don't trust the
           | car to not get confused and shut down in the middle of a
           | trip.
        
       | rmason wrote:
       | I've got a question on Waymo. Say you're an old person who takes
       | quite a bit of time to exit the vehicle. Is there a button
       | outside to indicate you're clear of the vehicle? Or are you 3/4
       | out when it gets another ride, slams the van door on you and
       | takes off at 45 mph with you hanging out.
       | 
       | I have seen many descriptions of the tech, some of it at a pretty
       | high level on how it navigates but never anything how it ensures
       | that the passenger has had a successful exit.
        
         | rkalla wrote:
         | They have specifically strengthened the motors in the sliding
         | door to cut the average adult person in half if they take
         | longer than 30 seconds to exit. (lol I like your example
         | scenario)
        
         | upbeat_general wrote:
         | I don't have any 1st person experience with this (or work at
         | Waymo) but there are probably several easy ways they avoid
         | this.
         | 
         | The car will probably never drive with the door open and all
         | modern cars have sensors to detect this.
         | 
         | Second, their cars (and any competent self-driving car) needs
         | to have a very accurate awareness of its surroundings. True it
         | might be difficult to get a clear view of a person just barely
         | outside the car but I'd bet that they have cameras/radar/lidar
         | positioned to see if at least something is there.
         | 
         | Lastly, they have internal passenger cameras that can detect
         | whether a person is inside the car.
        
         | lindseymysse wrote:
         | That is why Los Angeles Metro's model of a hailable microbus is
         | the correct business model here.
         | 
         | Uber showed us what we can do with an app, now the job is to
         | adapt our mass transit systems to these new ways of reasoning
         | about traffic.
        
       | mark_l_watson wrote:
       | Singapore (a city I love, an awesome place) started a fairly
       | large test of self driving taxis in 2016. I just looked for
       | recent news about this service but couldn't find any. Anyone know
       | if this is still a thing?
        
       | 1023bytes wrote:
       | The author also mentioned some key points in a tweet [1]. If it's
       | more expensive and slower, of course it can't compete.
       | 
       | [1] https://twitter.com/Ryandoofy/status/1410253369420226560
        
         | bastawhiz wrote:
         | I wonder why the cost is high. Maybe to discourage folks who
         | want a service competitive with a human driver?
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | Pure speculation but if it is indeed more expensive, it may
           | be to avoid the perception that they're competing with human
           | ride-share drivers.
        
             | novok wrote:
             | I think that is very wise to avoid that political minefield
             | by making it a little bit more expensive until it's
             | actually production ready.
        
           | crazysim wrote:
           | I wonder if it's also possible Uber and Lyft dropped their
           | prices in the area. Also to be fair, you don't feel any
           | pressure to tip in Waymo either.
        
           | jack_riminton wrote:
           | I read somewhere that each vehicle cost $250k because of all
           | the hardware
        
             | bastawhiz wrote:
             | Surely, though, the cost of operation has little to do with
             | the cost of rides? Google has poured billions into the
             | project. A few dollars per ride isn't helping their
             | accountants sleep any better.
        
             | shadilay wrote:
             | Hardware costs are dropping pretty fast. Lidar is already
             | an order of magnitude cheaper and compute benefits from
             | Moore's Law.
        
       | jmpman wrote:
       | It doesn't service the major bar area of downtown Chandler, much
       | less Old Town Scottsdale, Tempe or Downtown Phoenix. Although it
       | does service Chandler Fashion Center (one of the main malls in
       | the south east valley), you can't use it to send your 15 year old
       | to the mall/theater, as you must be 18 to use the service alone.
       | Intel's Ocotillo campus appears to be in their service area, so
       | if an Intel employee lived in the 40 square mile area, they might
       | be able to commute with it. It doesn't service either of the
       | airports. The trial area effectively requires a vehicle for any
       | practical lifestyle, and any of the use cases that I'd normally
       | take a Lyft/Uber for, just aren't serviced by Waymo.
        
         | crazysim wrote:
         | I don't think campus is covered. At least, you could never be
         | dropped off on campus if the system is in no-autonomous-
         | specialist mode.
        
         | 908B64B197 wrote:
         | > you can't use it to send your 15 year old to the
         | mall/theater, as you must be 18 to use the service alone.
         | 
         | They could honestly relax that constrain.
         | 
         | > The trial area effectively requires a vehicle for any
         | practical lifestyle, and any of the use cases that I'd normally
         | take a Lyft/Uber for, just aren't serviced by Waymo.
         | 
         | The trial area seems constrained because in case something goes
         | wrong they still have to dispatch a human. That doesn't really
         | scale.
        
           | Cilvic wrote:
           | >They could honestly relax that constrain.
           | 
           | If I were waymo I'd keep that as long as i can because the
           | downside of "child killed by freak accident in waymo car"
           | probably is probably something I'd like to avoid.
        
           | draw_down wrote:
           | The piece is about what is today, not what could be
        
           | ghaff wrote:
           | >They could honestly relax that constrain.
           | 
           | I don't know what legal constraints/tradeoffs they're
           | operating under but I was flying in planes by myself (as an
           | adult) by the time I was 15. So it doesn't seem unreasonable.
        
             | postingawayonhn wrote:
             | But you weren't by yourself. There were airline employees
             | there the whole time.
        
               | ghaff wrote:
               | Are you suggesting that stepping in an autonomous vehicle
               | at home to be delivered to a museum and returning the
               | same way is somehow more challenging than flying to a
               | different state, taking public transportation, going to
               | work at a McDonalds, or walking around a city--all of
               | which are things that teens do? I assume these autonomous
               | vehicles are monitored by humans at, at least, some
               | level.
        
         | jseliger wrote:
         | _It doesn't service the major bar area of downtown Chandler,
         | much less Old Town Scottsdale, Tempe or Downtown Phoenix_
         | 
         | I live in Arizona and was going to say exactly this: Waymo
         | doesn't go to many useful places right now. If it even expanded
         | to cover Tempe (where ASU is located) and a good chunk of
         | Scottsdale, it would be a lot more useful. Anyone on the margin
         | of keeping a car or selling it, or not buying it in the first
         | place, is unlikely to be heavily persuaded by Waymo
         | availability because the area covered is so small.
        
           | JumpCrisscross wrote:
           | > _Anyone on the margin of keeping a car or selling it, or
           | not buying it in the first place, is unlikely to be heavily
           | persuaded by Waymo_
           | 
           | I visit Arizona frequently and I don't drive. Waymo's current
           | service area is useless. It's in an area with a uniformly
           | rectilinear road layout, low population density and lower
           | incomes than its surrounding. It was picked for research
           | ease. Not product-market fit.
        
         | notatoad wrote:
         | It seems _really_ unlikely that waymo wasn 't aware of all
         | these limitations when they selected the area they were going
         | to trial the service in, and more like they selected the trial
         | area to purposefully minimize demand.
        
         | ErikVandeWater wrote:
         | The question isn't whether it's used much but whether it's at
         | full capacity.
         | 
         | Waymo might as well use it in the suburbs where there are less
         | corner case situations if it's at full capacity. The article
         | suggests it is not used at full capacity, but isn't clear.
        
       | andrewmcwatters wrote:
       | Another issue is I just never think about Waymo. I was without a
       | car for maybe a couple of months? Didn't think about using Waymo
       | once. Just grabbed an Uber.
        
       | tyingq wrote:
       | Most of what's said there does little to support the headline.
       | 
       | This is interesting though...
       | 
       |  _" Waymo says it provides hundreds of rides a week"_
       | 
       | Which almost certainly means less than 100 rides per day. Typical
       | Uber drivers do 4-6 trips in a 4 hour shift.
        
       | chiph wrote:
       | I've been impressed with Waymo from watching JJRicks videos. In
       | this video the Waymo vehicle gets cut-off by a driver changing
       | lanes in front of them, and it handled it correctly.
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LO3DxyTxdUU
       | 
       | I don't see why more people aren't taking advantage of it.
        
         | breckenedge wrote:
         | The white 4runner? My read of that driver's behavior is that
         | lane change was predictable. The 4runner gives up a huge gap to
         | let a space open up, generally indicative of a lane change, but
         | the van wants to keep a constant distance from the car ahead of
         | it. And the van seems to never leave the right-most lane, so
         | I'd expect these events happen pretty often.
        
         | jseliger wrote:
         | _I don 't see why more people aren't taking advantage of it._
         | 
         | This commenter covers it:
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28338580
        
       | specialist wrote:
       | Wonder if they considered Sun City. Moving seniors around might
       | be a worthy market segment.
        
         | oakfr wrote:
         | A bunch of robo taxi startups are going after this market
         | which, while being quite real, is minuscule compared to Waymo's
         | ambition.
        
       | nostromo wrote:
       | Waymo is unbearably slow.
       | 
       | It's basically Uber, but the driver is your grandma that is fine
       | waiting several minutes to make a left turn "just to be safe."
        
         | 37ef_ced3 wrote:
         | What is the benefit of self driving taxis versus human taxi
         | drivers with safety assist (collision mitigation braking, and
         | forward-collision warning, etc.)?
         | 
         | Is the benefit of self-driving taxis purely cost reduction?
         | 
         | You can pay less and have an artificial intelligence drive you,
         | or pay more and have a human (non-artificial intelligence)
         | drive you?
         | 
         | How much cheaper will the self-driving taxis be?
        
           | 37ef_ced3 wrote:
           | Why not answer my question, instead of voting me down?
           | 
           | If you can't answer my question, maybe the Emperor isn't
           | wearing any clothes.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | Tesla just did it again.[1]
       | 
       |  _" FHP Orlando @FHPOrlando * 10h Happening now: Orange County.
       | Trooper stopped to help a disabled motorist on I-4. When Tesla
       | driving on "auto" mode struck the patrol car. Trooper was outside
       | of car and extremely lucky to have not been struck. #moveover. WB
       | lanes of I-4 remain block as scene is being cleared."_
       | 
       | [1] https://twitter.com/FHPOrlando/status/1431565185899171840
        
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