[HN Gopher] Seeking early signals of dementia in driving and cre...
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Seeking early signals of dementia in driving and credit scores
Author : tysone
Score : 65 points
Date : 2021-08-26 18:13 UTC (4 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
| [deleted]
| neonate wrote:
| https://archive.is/x5U1H
| vmception wrote:
| Regarding the credit scores study, this may not have to do with
| _forgetting_ payments as a precursor to dementia, it may have to
| do with costly medical issues that was the precursor to dementia
| which caused the financial stress
| Ozzie_osman wrote:
| I'm curious if driving in particular could predict other things,
| like ADHD / bipolar. Having had a few friends on the spectrum, it
| definitely felt like their driving patterns were quite different
| than other people on the road.
| N1H1L wrote:
| I am curious. There may very well be patterns. Like that recent
| article where an algorithm could guess the ethnicity of
| patients from X-rays, such patterns may very well be present in
| driving
| huge87 wrote:
| What did you observe in your friends' driving patterns that was
| different? I'm very curious.
| SV_BubbleTime wrote:
| I had a commanding officer in the military who was showing signs
| of dementia.
|
| He was making... let's say, very bad tactical decisions. In the
| game way past his prime. But this was a whole different level.
|
| We were going to let his family know but it turns out it was
| becoming obvious in other areas. He was doing weird things like
| leaving doors open, eating a lot of sweets, and being paranoid
| about washing his hands all the time.
|
| Not a good scenario, really crazy condition. Sad for the people
| that got left to deal with him.
| giantg2 wrote:
| This other article about writing style risks is interesting. If
| it's accurate, then I will probably have early onset alzheimer's.
| I miss articles, misspell, and repeat words. I'm only in my
| 30s...
|
| https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/01/health/alzheimers-predict...
| ImaCake wrote:
| A word of caution about machine learning models in academia. The
| advertised predictive ability or AUC is often inflated, sometimes
| by a lot. I am not sure why, but I imagine it comes down to the
| usual p-hacking incentives. Maybe it is because you only need to
| apply your model to more than one "independent" dataset before
| you publish a paper. Or simply that academics in diverse fields
| often lack the nuanced knowledge to realise their model is
| predicting based on some experimental artifact in their data.
|
| Digital phenotyping has a lot of promise. But considering the
| unusually conservative old boys club that seems to dominate
| alzheimers research I would be particularly suspicious of any
| research on the disease.
| timy2shoes wrote:
| Fantastic point. Another thing about academic ml models is that
| they're commonly evaluated on in-sample data. For example,
| medical AI devices are commonly evaluated on data coming from
| the same source/hospital that the training data comes from (see
| https://www-cdn.law.stanford.edu/wp-
| content/uploads/2021/04/...). This leads to over-confidence in
| the performance because of overfitting of batch effects.
| jacobkg wrote:
| My grandmother had very serious dementia. I remember a year or so
| before we were aware of it that she almost ran a cyclist off the
| road which was very uncharacteristic.
| Baeocystin wrote:
| One of the early signs that foreshadowed my mother's decline
| was the deterioration of her driving skills, and this preceded
| almost all other noticeable symptoms.
|
| Driving is a complex skill that requires rapid, continuous
| sensory integration to perform well. It makes sense to me that
| it is something that would first show a deficit.
| ben_w wrote:
| One of the early signs in both my mother's and grandmother's
| Alzheimer's was forgetting to pay (UK) road tax. Somehow both
| of them managed to get away with being on the road for the next
| six months, before the rest of the family found out and
| intervened.
|
| At least in my mother's case, this was far from the only thing
| that suddenly became wrong with her driving; she also developed
| a fear of going over about 50 mph and using gears above third,
| and one sign we only recognised in retrospect was that she
| forgot how maps worked.
| bryanrasmussen wrote:
| >Regarding the credit scores study, this may not have to do with
| forgetting payments as a precursor to dementia,
|
| or my ADHD regularly costing me late fees. I'm ok with it until
| some company turns out to be just as disorganized as me, because
| they never have to pay for their foibles.
| echelon wrote:
| > ADHD regularly costing me late fees
|
| The world is set up against us.
|
| That, and the fact that the world revolves around _morning
| people_. I 'm still writing code at 3 AM, and you want me to be
| up for a 10:00 meeting?
|
| I'm lucky to be in a career where I can avoid this stuff, but
| it doesn't fix the rest of the rigidly broken world.
| steve_adams_86 wrote:
| One thing I've found profoundly useful is not thinking of the
| world as set up against me, but more so that I'm my own worst
| enemy. I'm set up against myself.
|
| Nothing external will change, so there's no sense fretting
| about my environment naturally suiting my psychology, because
| that'll never happen. That's a fantasy. I'd code til 3am too
| (and have, far too many times) but I've come to believe my
| job in the present is all about setting up future me for
| success. Present me tends to have shitty ideas about what to
| do in the present, but plenty of great ideas about what I
| should have done in the past or should do in the future.
| Without being critical of present me, I'm likely to fuck
| things up properly. I need to focus on the scaffolding for
| those great ideas for future me and less on the shitty ones
| for present me. That guy is already a lost cause.
|
| My strategy is one of delayed gratification, which my brain
| hates. I lay down with a book at 9 or 10pm because it'll put
| me to sleep in a hurry even though my brain is typically
| WIRED when I lay down. Yeah it doesn't feel like bed time,
| but it sure as shit is bed time. I'll do other things like
| keep shitty food out of my home, because otherwise I'll find
| really good reasons to eat (too much) of it. I put EVERYTHING
| in my calendar because although present me is positive future
| me will remember, that's totally incorrect and I actually do
| need frequent reminders of pretty much everything I'm not
| immediately focused on or interested in. I leave my phone
| behind because even though I'm sure I won't use it too much,
| yeah, I definitely will. Expect the worst from yourself and
| prepare accordingly.
|
| So, the world isn't my problem, I am! I'm my worst enemy. The
| path to defeating myself is doing a lot of stuff I don't feel
| like doing. I like this approach because rather than being
| mad at the world for my failures, I'm forced to do something
| about it.
|
| That's my experience, anyway.
| echelon wrote:
| > I'm set up against myself.
|
| You're not the problem. The world is.
|
| Don't blame yourself.
| salt-thrower wrote:
| > Nothing external will change
|
| Decades of activism disagree. One example: people in
| wheelchairs used to be called "invalids" and pretty much
| couldn't get anywhere in public. Then the ADA was signed,
| and public spaces are much more accessible as a result.
|
| A healthy balance between stoic acceptance and dutiful
| activism is the optimal approach, I think.
| quantumBerry wrote:
| >One example: people in wheelchairs used to be called
| "invalids" and pretty much couldn't get anywhere in
| public.
|
| I suppose all the photographs of President Franklin
| Roosevelt traveling all across the world, entering the
| governor's office and ultimately the whitehouse were
| fakes since these all happened before the ADA.
|
| The fact one of our very active presidents was confined
| to a wheelchair really puts a hole in your ADA theory of
| invalids.
| bcassedy wrote:
| Is your counterpoint really that FDR was able to go
| places in public?
|
| He notoriously hid his disability with a combination of
| canes, braces, and family members to hold him upright and
| even simulate walking.
|
| He also had a tremendous amount of power and money to
| force or provide his own special accommodations. Like
| having an army of secret service agents to help him deal
| with stairs.
| quantumBerry wrote:
| I quote you as follows: people in wheelchairs "pretty
| much couldn't get anywhere in public."
|
| I assert that you are quite wrong, and I provide you an
| example of it happening. We shouldn't discount his
| achievements.
| bcassedy wrote:
| "People pretty much couldn't go to space" "Well actually
| Richard Branson went to space. That puts a big hole in
| your people pretty much couldn't go to space argument now
| doesn't it!?"
|
| The example of a single person with nearly endless
| resources accomplishing something does nothing to refute
| a point about the masses. Heck, the "pretty much"
| qualifier is an acknowledgement that some people got
| around despite their condition.
|
| I assert that you are not discussing this in good faith
| and won't be engaging with you further.
| quantumBerry wrote:
| Wow, pretty much anything can be refuted when you operate
| entirely against a wondrous straw man. I didn't say a
| word about space. It would be pretty dumb to say people
| couldn't pretty much go to space.
|
| You've made abundantly clear that your "good faith"
| worries about others are in fact a projection of your own
| problem with keeping the good faith.
| [deleted]
| elliekelly wrote:
| You mean like the ADHD obstacle course we have to complete in
| order to get medication? It's maddening.
| bspammer wrote:
| When I was a teenager I was really hoping that when I grew up
| I would stop being sleepy in the morning and then becoming
| wide awake around 11pm.
|
| Hasn't changed at all. Everyone's got some way that society
| doesn't work for them though. Being left handed, too short,
| too tall, a minority, wheelchair-bound etc. All things
| considered I have it pretty good.
| steve_adams_86 wrote:
| Yeah, 100% - my dull brain has somehow managed to give me a
| relatively comfortable life. Plenty of problems crop up but
| I've got food, a family, a job. I used to resent this brain
| quite a bit but I've come to like it a lot. It could have
| been worse.
| hunter2_ wrote:
| As someone with no relevant diagnosis but who considers their
| memory and attention to be occasionally questionable, I find a
| solution (not always attainable, but I try) in mustering up the
| energy to create [recurring, if applicable] calendar entries
| with reminders. Anything to streamline and reduce the friction
| associated with doing so, such as using voice assistants as
| much as possible, is super helpful. The slightest bit of
| thought along the lines of "I'll probably remember" to get out
| of documenting the reminder is a major catalyst for failure.
|
| Therefore, I'd consider the quantity/frequency of such
| reminders (detectable by cloud calendar/reminder providers) to
| be an early indicator of such issues.
| Spooky23 wrote:
| My wife and I have a paper calendar and we have a meeting
| every Wednesday where we check in and record bills and make
| payments. We get 15-20 bills a month for reasons.
|
| We also moved all bills back to paper, as it's easier to
| track that than various email based accounts.
| syntheticnature wrote:
| I've long used paper with tracking as one of the reasons,
| but due to the pandemic's effects one actually wound up a
| month late (and other attempts to keep track also missed
| it).
| fshbbdssbbgdd wrote:
| I have ADHD and I don't think I have a single bill that is not
| on autopay. The only exception was the property tax on my
| house, until the time I made the expensive mistake of
| forgetting to pay it. Then I refinanced my house and had them
| pay the property tax out of escrow. I'm pretty sure I could
| fall off the face of the earth and none of my creditors would
| notice until my job stopped paying me and my checking account
| ran dry.
| JoeAltmaier wrote:
| I was part of a project to measure reaction times in a primitive
| driving simulator. Accelerator, brake, steering wheel from a
| gaming setup. You drove down a straight road, some roadside
| scenery went by. Every so often you went through a gate. The gate
| would sometimes close just as you got there. Measured whether you
| hit the brake in time. Simple, a little challenging. The idea
| was, for drivers to self-measure if they were still able to drive
| safely. Tried to pitch it to an insurance company that rhymes
| with Slate Charm.
|
| They acted like it was poison. They didn't want to even appear to
| be trying to select out older customers. The legal trouble they'd
| have, discriminating according to age (or even appearing to try)
| would have brought a landslide down on them.
| gowld wrote:
| How long ago was this?
|
| Now, insurance companies put trackers in cars and adjust rates
| based on actual speeding and braking.
| paulryanrogers wrote:
| Could be a market for BMVs since they're responsible for
| license renewal. And they already test eye sight.
| MontyCarloHall wrote:
| Huh, if they can legally justify explicitly discriminating
| based on sex and age (younger men generally pay more than
| younger women, while older women generally pay more than older
| men) I'm surprised they couldn't figure out a way to
| discriminate based on age alone.
|
| Edit: here [0] is a breakdown of car insurance costs,
| stratified by age/sex. Young people pay by far the most, with
| premiums steadily declining until age 50 and then rising again.
| So I'm not sure what their objection might have been, since
| they already do charge old people more (presumably at a level
| accurately reflecting their relative risk).
|
| [0] https://www.valuepenguin.com/how-age-affects-auto-
| insurance-...
| maxerickson wrote:
| Of course they discriminate on age. They don't want to make
| it clear to the people they are doing it too.
| MontyCarloHall wrote:
| > They don't want to make it clear to the people
|
| Wouldn't a driving sim be the exact opposite of that?
|
| "To make our premiums accurately reflect _your_ driving
| habits and avoid lumping you into crude demographics like
| the other insurers, we offer all our customers an
| opportunity to take a spin in our driving sim and get a
| truly personalized rate reflecting your excellent driving
| habits."
| scottlamb wrote:
| Worse: couldn't figure out a way to "discriminate" based on a
| bona fide measure of driving ability that (I imagine) only
| loosely correlates with age.
|
| But age discrimination laws/enforcement are seemingly one-
| way, and the elderly vote and sue, so...
| bpodgursky wrote:
| In the US, it is legal (in a hiring context) to discriminate
| against young people, but not against old people. For better
| or for worse, it's not parallel.
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