[HN Gopher] Google to pay Apple $15B to remain default Safari se...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Google to pay Apple $15B to remain default Safari search engine in
       2021
        
       Author : miles
       Score  : 331 points
       Date   : 2021-08-26 07:43 UTC (15 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (9to5mac.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (9to5mac.com)
        
       | fsflover wrote:
       | > After another meeting between Apple and Google senior
       | executives, notes showed that the execs agreed: "Our vision is
       | that we work as if we are one company."
       | 
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28238317
        
       | ColinHayhurst wrote:
       | This is monopolistic collusion which regulators may well try to
       | address in various ways indicated including interoperability.
       | Self-evidently the deal suits Google and Apple. If Microsoft
       | outbid Google then it would simply replace one bilateral deal of
       | collusion between 2 of the 5 GAFAMs, with another.
       | 
       | All the other 4 search choices in Safari are Bing. Whatever they
       | say (and some are more transparent than others) Duck, Ecosia and
       | Yahoo are Bing. So you might argue the whole search choice menu
       | is 3-way GAFAM collusion.
       | 
       | The way to help users, and indeed customers who use search
       | advertising, would be to allow easy use of multiple search
       | engines on browsers. I want to be able to easily use all or some
       | of crawlers Google, Bing, Mojeek, syndicates Duck, Ecosia,
       | Startpage and others like Brave .... with one click the way I can
       | on Firefox, or in other ways. Wouldn't you like that?
       | 
       | No one search engine, or syndicate if you prefer to use those,
       | can be the search or "answer" engine which will always be best.
       | We get more value as users if we have a healthy market with
       | multiple choices for search, and an easy way to use them all.
       | 
       | But then I would say this; self-disclosure CEO of Mojeek - an
       | independent no-tracking search engine.
        
         | nova22033 wrote:
         | This is no different from Fast Food restaurants carrying
         | Pepsi(or Coke) products exclusively.
         | 
         |  _If Microsoft outbid Google then it would simply replace one
         | bilateral deal of collision between 2 of the 5 GAFAMs, with
         | another._
         | 
         | Yes...Just like Pepsi can offer a fast food company a better
         | deal to carry Pepsi products exclusively
        
           | xdennis wrote:
           | > This is no different from Fast Food restaurants carrying
           | Pepsi(or Coke) products exclusively.
           | 
           | No it's not. No soft drink has 91% market share.
        
           | littlestymaar wrote:
           | This comment is a great example of _whataboutism_.
        
             | JiNCMG wrote:
             | No the comment is to show that this is standard business
             | practice that goes back further than any of us have been
             | alive. BTW, MCDonalds has such a s sweet deal that they
             | will never leave. AKA they will always pay the lowest price
             | for the Coke syrups out of any of Coke's vendors. Giving
             | you a cup, lid and straw cost more than filling up that cup
             | with a Coke product.
        
               | littlestymaar wrote:
               | Monopolistic practices indeed go _back further than any
               | of us have been alive_ , and so do most crimes. That
               | doesn't mean it's not bad and shouldn't be fought
               | against...
               | 
               | Excusing a bad situation by pointing to another situation
               | equally bad doesn't make the situation less bad, it's
               | just sophism. (And I won't even argue that there's at
               | least an order of magnitude in the sums involved and that
               | the consequences in terms of individual freedom of the
               | two situations are of completely different scale,sibling
               | comments have done so already).
        
           | singron wrote:
           | I think there is a big difference in that there are only 2
           | mobile OSes and users stick with the same one for years.
           | 
           | Imagine there were only 2 restaurants and 99% of people went
           | exclusively to the same one every day for years.
        
             | mcphage wrote:
             | After the franchise wars, now all restaurants are Taco
             | Bell.
        
             | bko wrote:
             | Mobile OSes are not restaurants. Believe it or not, but
             | people are pretty happy with their mobile OSes. We've seen
             | phone usage increase and stay very high. And people dish
             | out up to $2k for new devices. People continue to spend a
             | lot on phones and replace them often.
             | 
             | You can not like certain practices of Google or Apple or
             | aspects of their privacy policy, but don't gaslight
             | yourself by saying that somehow the average device consumer
             | is terribly concerned or hurt in any meaningful direct way.
             | Most people like their phones and when you get a well
             | funded competitor like Blackberry or Amazon or even Google
             | hardware, people shrug and go back to Samsung/Apple
        
               | singron wrote:
               | I don't think a disagree. I think this is exactly what
               | makes this so tricky. On the consumer side, users have a
               | choice, pick their favorite, occasionally switch when
               | they buy a new phone, and are generally content.
               | 
               | However on the supply side, there are 2 disjoint
               | monopolies. You reach iOS users through Apple's monopoly
               | on iOS distribution, and you reach Android users through
               | Google's [near-]monopoly on Android distribution.
               | 
               | To continue the hurt analogy, it's the difference between
               | there being 2 restaurant chains in every town and there
               | being 1 restaurant chain for the Eastern US and a
               | different chain for the Western US (and moving across the
               | country cost $400-$800).
        
               | TheCoelacanth wrote:
               | The question isn't whether people like their mobile OSs.
               | It's whether there is meaningful competition in the
               | mobile OS space.
               | 
               | The only two mobile OS providers of any significance
               | colluding together is not a good indicator of meaningful
               | competition.
        
             | Dracophoenix wrote:
             | That was practically the case in the early- to mid- 2000s
             | with McDonalds and Burger King.
        
           | ColinHayhurst wrote:
           | Good point. Is that healthy? Perhaps you don't mind but I
           | would like to be able to choose between Pepsi and Coke too;
           | when buying for someone else. At least in most restaurants I
           | can personally choose also from other brands with more
           | healthy products.
        
           | ajsnigrutin wrote:
           | But thre are literally millions of fast food restaurants to
           | choose from, accessible to everyone.
           | 
           | In mobile space, we basically have two OSes with their
           | default browsers and search engine, and in browser space we
           | have three, and all of them basically use one of the two
           | search engines (and their derivatives).
        
             | ralfd wrote:
             | There are millions of websites to choose from. The best
             | (most convenient to reach) places in cites or on highways
             | will be the big chains.
        
         | vbezhenar wrote:
         | Firefox presents Yandex search by default for me. I guess
         | Yandex outbid Google in my country.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | xyzzy21 wrote:
       | And I always switch it to something else... $15B wasted as far as
       | I matter. :-)
        
       | srg0 wrote:
       | So if it's true that there are 1B active iPhone users, then
       | Google pays $15 per user per year.
        
         | LeifCarrotson wrote:
         | What you really want to ask about is the ARPU metric, or
         | Average Revenue Per User:
         | 
         | https://mondaynote.com/the-arpus-of-the-big-four-dwarf-every...
         | 
         | Google gets revenues of about $256 per user per year, mostly
         | from search ad impressions. That's the context for this $15 per
         | user deal; their ROI is nearly 20x.
         | 
         | For context, Apple makes about $30 on services like iCloud per
         | user; if you factor in hardware sales every 2 years or so their
         | revenue is $194/user/year. Facebook makes about $112 per
         | US/Canadian user. Amazon is the big ARPU winner, making $752
         | per user per year based on $120/year Prime memberships plus
         | sellers giving them their fee of approximately 15% fee + $5
         | shipping prices.
        
       | infofarmer wrote:
       | Ah, they joy of holding two conflicting thoughts at the same
       | time! Like, Apple does not sell user data to third parties and
       | Apple is sending all search traffic to Google by default for $15b
       | a year.
        
         | bko wrote:
         | What's the alternative? Should Safari choose a default search
         | engine by random per user or per session? Google is undoubtedly
         | the best search engine in nearly all cases. Should Apple
         | subject its users to a weaker engine just because Google has a
         | different privacy policy? You can also change the default
         | search engine.
         | 
         | Why wouldn't Apple accept a payment for bringing billions of
         | dollars in traffic to Google?
        
           | KptMarchewa wrote:
           | Apple subjects it's user to a highest bidder. You can't
           | seriously try to claim Apple is using Google as "best search
           | engine" minute after seeing they are getting 15B for it.
        
             | bko wrote:
             | Google is by far the best search engine.
             | 
             | Google pays Apple to set it as the default as its a
             | positive sum to both sides. Google gets more than $15bn of
             | value from the traffic and Apple gets $15bn for the obvious
             | decision. Google could call Apple's bluff and refuse to
             | pay, but Apple could pull through on their threat to
             | replace default search with an inferior engine. They did it
             | with Google Maps by replacing it with Apple Maps, which was
             | a widely unpopular decision
        
               | selectodude wrote:
               | They did it with Google and replaced it with Bing awhile
               | back.
        
           | danielrpa wrote:
           | Weaker... According to whom? I particularly use DDG on my
           | personal devices and only _occasionally_ go to Google.
           | Whenever I 'm using a machine that use Google as the default,
           | I _often_ go back to DDG to get results unspoiled by the bias
           | pushed by Google 's agenda, SEO and paid ads.
           | 
           | But answering your question, it could let the user choose
           | their search engine as part of the onboarding experience
           | while providing a random preselected default.
        
             | shukantpal wrote:
             | How many people actually want to switch from Google?
        
               | supermatt wrote:
               | I think the bigger question is how many people would
               | notice a switch? My family members now "google" stuff on
               | DDG.
               | 
               | Google are paying tens of billions to keep them in the
               | "default" dominant position because they know this.
        
               | Smashure wrote:
               | Google results have fallen dramatically in terms of
               | quality. I'd switch from current Google to Google circa
               | 2018
        
             | CodeGlitch wrote:
             | I've been using Brave:
             | 
             | https://search.brave.com/
             | 
             | For my usage it gives good results, and it has the added
             | bonus of providing links to google et al when you scroll
             | down the results (it assumes that if the first page of
             | results isn't good enough then the user will go elsewhere,
             | so why not provide links to the other search engines?).
        
               | bryan0 wrote:
               | I wanted to try brave, but it's not even an option for
               | safari iOS search main search bar! Only options are
               | Google, yahoo, bing, ddg, and ecosia
        
               | CodeGlitch wrote:
               | Could you set it as your home-page? Obviously not as nice
               | as going via the URL-bar, but at least you'll be able to
               | get a taste of it.
        
               | bryan0 wrote:
               | Yes but honestly if it's not in the url bar I'm not going
               | to use it.
        
               | abrowne wrote:
               | +1 for Brave search. I had used DDG for a couple years
               | before and it was fine, but Brave actually seems good.
               | 
               | (I don't like their font but that's an easy fix with
               | userstyles.)
        
               | coldcode wrote:
               | Wouldn't it be cheaper for Apple to just buy DDG or
               | Brave?
        
               | CodeGlitch wrote:
               | I think you might be right.
        
         | SimeVidas wrote:
         | "Apple makes is very easy to stop sending your user data to
         | third parties."
         | 
         | Better?
        
         | cronix wrote:
         | It's kind of like how the NSA has deals with other countries
         | like the UK to allow spying on Americans to get around
         | constitutional issues. Hey, _we_ didn 't do the spying! We're
         | privacy focused. We just make billions by allowing other
         | companies to spy on you, and we make it the default position.
         | Plausible deniability at the corporate level.
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | Apple makes it easy enough to switch the "search engine used
         | from the URL bar" if you care to.
        
         | hyperbovine wrote:
         | Well, Google is the best search engine, and Apple wants the
         | best user experience. This has the feel of getting paid $15b to
         | do something you were going to do anyways.
        
           | snarf21 wrote:
           | If Apple popped up a list on install of search engines to
           | pick from, 99% of people would pick Google anyway. Google is
           | mostly afraid they will buy a startup and have their own or
           | make the same deal with M$. At $15B of pure bottom line, it
           | is an easy choice for Apple. We can only stop this with taxes
           | on digital advertising. The tracking companies have become
           | too good at fingerprinting. Even if everything was completely
           | random and anonymized from the iPhone side, the carriers/ISPs
           | can fingerprint you so much easier and they'll never stop
           | (probably not even with regulation).
        
           | rchaud wrote:
           | Google search is completely gamed, as are Bing and others
           | that rely on the same list of ranking factors. Besides the
           | visual difference between Bing/Google results page, I doubt
           | iPhone users would be able to tell who was serving the
           | results.
        
           | funnyThing7 wrote:
           | Makes me wonder why they have to pay 15b in the first place.
           | If it's indeed a no-brainer for apple, the deal could be made
           | with far less money?
        
             | tnzm wrote:
             | I'd imagine with $15B Apple could bootstrap its own search
             | engine.
        
               | JiNCMG wrote:
               | Not worth it. It's not cheap maintaining a search engine.
               | Apple could throw resources at it but what is the
               | benefit? This is different than the Maps issue where
               | Google refuse to provide new features for iPhone Maps.
               | Apple used OpenStreetMaps (OSM) and created their own. By
               | using OSM, it gave that project more visibility and
               | others an alternative solution to Google Maps. A few
               | years later Google suddenly makes it "not so free" for
               | businesses displaying a map, they better put up a credit
               | card.
        
               | julienfr112 wrote:
               | There are getting 15B to NOT boostrap their search
               | engine. If they bootstrap their own engine, they loose
               | 15B on top of having to pay to build this own engine.
        
               | tnzm wrote:
               | Exactly. Plenty of risks involved - they could just fail
               | like Microsoft did, or if they pull it off it could
               | seriously upset the balance in the ecosystem. Better
               | reach a mutually beneficial agreement with everyone's
               | "favorite" search company instead. Coopetition lol
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | theklub wrote:
           | Is it the best search engine anymore? Seems like the web is
           | an seo hellhole when I'm looking for real information.
        
             | unethical_ban wrote:
             | Yes.
             | 
             | I use DDG as my default. The bang syntax is great for quick
             | pivots and for wikipedia-like information. However, digging
             | deep into a topic or doing certain technical searches
             | brings up SEO hell/malicious PDFs worse than Google ever
             | does.
        
             | rcoveson wrote:
             | The other day I was watching somebody search "Mass Effect
             | Legendary Edition Ultrawide Support" while logged in to
             | Google. They repeatedly got nothing but results for Heroes
             | of the Storm, a completely different game which they had
             | been playing a few days earlier. It was the creepiest
             | thing. HotS is not a very popular game. I guarantee that
             | most people searching "$VIDEO_GAME Ultrawide Support" are
             | not looking for HotS info.
             | 
             | Anyway, on Bing and DDG both the first page of results were
             | what I would have expected. Just like they would have been
             | on Google ten years ago.
        
               | readams wrote:
               | That query works well for me on Google.
        
               | rcoveson wrote:
               | I don't doubt it. I believe it was a results
               | personalization issue. A history of queries related to
               | one game caused it to include that game in all game-
               | related queries. Maybe exacerbated by the
               | heroes:legendary relationship? Who knows. I don't even
               | recognize the Google algorithm year to year anymore. I
               | don't expect to be able to reproduce anything.
        
             | urthor wrote:
             | It's the best algorithm I would say, but the site itself
             | has quite horrid design these days.
        
             | cdogl wrote:
             | I've encouraged numerous non-technical friends and family
             | members to switch to DuckDuckGo and they've all gone back
             | to Google within a week.
        
               | iKevinShah wrote:
               | Although my default is DDG and I am technical, but I
               | still find myself heading back to Google in case DDG
               | disappoints. and that happens frequently (although
               | definitely not always)
        
               | maxk42 wrote:
               | I had the same problem with DDG. I use Bing now. It may
               | not be as ideal as DDG, but it's not Google and I seldom
               | have difficulty finding what I'm searching for.
        
               | tomerv wrote:
               | That's my experience as well. I'm on DDG for a few months
               | now, and I often resort to using Google when DDG doesn't
               | give me the results I want.
        
               | rchaud wrote:
               | How much of that is down to them missing the familiar
               | look of the Google results page?
               | 
               | I wish we could do a blind study where users were asked
               | to use a white-labeled search page where the results are
               | served by Google or Bing (or others), but not disclosed.
               | They would be asked to use that engine exclusively for 3
               | months, and rank their satisfaction with it.
               | 
               | I imagine the results would be similar, but people would
               | still feel a pull towards Google because it's been around
               | for 20 years.
        
               | cromwellian wrote:
               | I dont understand how people make these claims. For web
               | search, Google is obviously better but for other classes
               | of queries like question answering of structured
               | knowledge or video search, it's way better.
               | 
               | Ask DuckDuckGo for "Shang chi cast" and compare that with
               | Google.
               | 
               | Or look at how it now returns search results that contain
               | deep links into VIDEOs at the exact time index that is
               | relevant.
               | 
               | (I think this may be done with VideoBERT and if you
               | search for that it will return deep links into a
               | videobert presentation!)
               | 
               | In any case Apple would have along long way to go to
               | match what Google is doing. Search is no longer just
               | TFIDF and 20 blue links.
        
               | Kye wrote:
               | Microsoft did something like this almost a decade ago.
               | 
               | https://techcrunch.com/2012/09/06/bing-it-on-microsoft-
               | claim...
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Microsoft_Bing#Bing_It_On
               | 
               | It was marginal, in favor of Bing, though I don't think
               | they did extended experiments with individuals.
        
               | Tarsul wrote:
               | I really think DDG should at least search for results of
               | "my" country by default. Otherwise it's just too annoying
               | for the regular user. Aside from that, I like DDG more
               | than Google.
        
         | littlestymaar wrote:
         | > Apple does not sell user data to third parties
         | 
         | Oh, of course they do:
         | 
         | > Apple's Sharing of Personal Data
         | 
         | > Apple may share personal data with service providers who act
         | on our behalf, our partners, or others at your direction.
         | Further, Apple does not share personal data with third parties
         | for their own marketing purposes.
         | 
         | > Partners. At times, Apple may partner with third parties to
         | provide services or other offerings. For example, Apple
         | financial offerings like Apple Card and Apple Cash are offered
         | by Apple and our partners. Apple requires its partners to
         | protect your personal data.
         | 
         | They share it, they just don't share your data "with third
         | parties for their own marketing purposes", no additional
         | privacy guarantees.
         | 
         | source: https://www.apple.com/legal/privacy/en-ww/
        
           | nulbyte wrote:
           | None of that describes selling data to third parties. The
           | third parties that might receive data as described in this
           | section are vendors or partners, not customers. Apple isn't
           | making money off the sale of data here.
        
             | littlestymaar wrote:
             | > Apple isn't making money off the sale of data here.
             | 
             | There's zero mention of that in the aforementioned policy.
             | This policy completely allows them to make money in their
             | deals with their <<partners>> or even their <<service
             | providers>> and you wouldn't know it.
             | 
             | For instance, Apple pay is a payment service and I would be
             | really surprised if they didn't get paid by their partner
             | for every transaction made through them. (And yes, a
             | transaction is <<personal data>>).
             | 
             | And since they are a for profit company, they obviously
             | intend to make money (even if it's not through their
             | partner paying them directly but through indirect revenue
             | sources like customer retention or acquisition) when making
             | partnership, because otherwise they wouldn't make such
             | partnerships!
        
             | readams wrote:
             | Google and Facebook also don't sell data. They keep the
             | data and charge advertisers to take advantage of their
             | ability to target using the data.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | techrat wrote:
         | How does having a default web search engine equate to
         | "[Company] is sending *all* search traffic to [other company]"?
         | 
         | Users have preferences and may change the engines they search
         | with, not use Safari at all or be already using Google anyway.
        
           | blocked_again wrote:
           | >Users have preferences and may change the engines they
           | search with, not use Safari at all or be already using Google
           | anyway.
           | 
           | Well Google ofcourse clearly diasgree given they are willing
           | to pay 15 billion dollars.
        
           | ThePhysicist wrote:
           | 95 % of users never touch predefined settings, so being the
           | default almost always equates to being the "winner".
           | 
           | What they should do instead is to let people select a search
           | engine based on different criteria (including privacy
           | friendliness). Most people would then still choose Google but
           | the effect would be way less pronounced.
        
             | bko wrote:
             | Microsoft Edge would like to have a word with you.
             | 
             | The only thing pointing people to DDG or some inferior
             | search engine would be to frustrate non-technical people
             | when their search results become "weird".
             | 
             | Not all search engines are the same. I use DDG by default
             | but I admit there is a huge difference between the two
             | search engines and I use !g more than I'd like to admit.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Usage_share_of_web_browsers
        
               | KptMarchewa wrote:
               | >Microsoft Edge would like to have a word with you.
               | 
               | The 95% statistic only works when you introduce new,
               | hidden option. People used Chrome/Firefox/whatever before
               | Edge, they are used to it, and it's their default.
        
           | ajkdhcb2 wrote:
           | Some people will use it just because it's the default. Apple
           | is paid because of that. So Apple is selling user data, i.e.
           | violating privacy for money
        
             | techrat wrote:
             | some =/= all,
             | 
             | which is the point I was addressing in my original comment.
        
         | 1vuio0pswjnm7 wrote:
         | "Like, Apple does not sell user data to third parties and Apple
         | is sending all search traffic to Google by default for $15B a
         | year."
         | 
         | Or like, Mozilla is working to protect user privacy^1 and
         | Mozilla is sending all search traffic to Google by default for
         | [much less than $15B] a year.
         | 
         | In each case, we can see two conflicting interests/objectives.
         | Data collection versus privacy protection. Being honest, which
         | is the one we can say is making the most progress at the
         | expense of the other. How much data is being collected. How
         | much data is off-limits. How much money is being "lost" by
         | "tech" companies to privacy protection (user self-
         | determination). Be honest.
         | 
         | 1 And other noble causes, including maintaining a "healhty"
         | web. Read: Ensuring online advertising does not die out.
        
           | ComodoHacker wrote:
           | I'm sure it's net positive for users in both cases.
           | 
           | Apple doesn't sell Google data of users' actions on other
           | websites or in other apps.
           | 
           | And Mozilla really did a lot for user privacy using that
           | Google money.
        
           | tyingq wrote:
           | >Mozilla is sending all search traffic to Google by default
           | for...much less
           | 
           | And not just much less overall...
           | 
           | Mozilla is supposedly getting ~$400M/year. Which is $115M per
           | percentage point of marketshare. The $15B for Apple is $804M
           | per percentage point of marketshare.
           | 
           | Which I suppose makes sense, as iPhone users probably
           | automatically fall into a high income demographic.
           | 
           | What I used for market share:
           | https://gs.statcounter.com/browser-market-share
        
             | unethical_ban wrote:
             | Even if a user pivots from Safari, keeping Google as the
             | default is keeping it as the default in the minds of users
             | as they move to a different browser.
        
       | julienfr112 wrote:
       | I really don't understand what would be the threat from Apple to
       | Google if they don't pay. Build their own search engine as they
       | did for google maps ? Send users to Bing ? Mac users would not be
       | thrilled ...
        
         | arthurcolle wrote:
         | Yes, the first line item you mention is rumored to be true.
         | Apple has been apparently working on a search engine. Given
         | their desire to subtly influence social mores while bowing out
         | of true progressive change (beyond LGBTQ+ lip service and
         | pretending to adopt diversity policies), while manifesting
         | total inability to move past their puritanical fear of adult
         | content or basically anything outside the superficial normie
         | sphere of influence, I doubt it will be nuanced or have enough
         | of a "wow factor" to be any better than AltaVista circa 1998 or
         | to scoop up any following. Lol Siri can't even perform
         | contextually relevant suggestive searches or respond in kind
         | back with cues after giving a static response to a query. To
         | think they have the bargaining power to compete with Google is
         | silly, but it shows how Google just wants to throw money at
         | this market (iOS devices) and fears the potential for a
         | competitor to actually release a competing product.
         | 
         | Think different (tm) *
         | 
         | * unless the think is too different
        
           | 8fingerlouie wrote:
           | > Lol Siri can't even perform contextually relevant
           | suggestive searches or respond in kind back with cues after
           | giving a static response to a query
           | 
           | Siri doesn't know a thing about you, that's why you get
           | "static responses".
           | 
           | Unlike Google, which uploads _everything_ to the cloud, most
           | (if not all) of Apple's AI/Location/data mining stuff happens
           | "on device", and it stays on that device. If you buy a new
           | phone/tablet/computer, you're starting from scratch again,
           | relearning frequent locations, charging habits, etc. The data
           | isn't even backed up, so restoring your phone from a backup
           | also means starting from scratch.
           | 
           | With iOS 15, Siri is also moving "on device", so i guess it
           | has the means to become smarter (personalized) now, when it
           | can actually do (on device) data mining. Still not backed up
           | though, so new phone still means you start over.
        
             | oblio wrote:
             | Why don't they move the data from device to device?
        
           | siva7 wrote:
           | Google isn't the company that throws 18B at a problem if it
           | doesn't believe that not doing so wouldn't pose a substantial
           | business risk.
        
         | yftsui wrote:
         | Google need Apple user's click stream data to rank the search
         | results?
        
         | marvel_boy wrote:
         | Losing $15B suddenly is indeed a massive threat. Apple shares
         | would be bearish next day.
        
           | siva7 wrote:
           | So would Google's share if they lost overnight the exclusive
           | status of being the primary search engine, even more so than
           | Apple.
        
         | Jyaif wrote:
         | Switching from one search engine to a strictly inferior one
         | will be a hard sell to customers, but going from one search
         | engine to a superior one privacy wise but inferior one results
         | wise is justifiable.
         | 
         | So they could send users to Bing, but I think it's more likely
         | they'll send users to an Apple-branded frontend to Bing (or
         | some other "privacy-first" frontend to an existing search
         | engine).
        
         | ksec wrote:
         | Would most user even realise they are on a different search
         | engine? Or would they care about it enough when majority of it
         | are now coming from Siri Search.
         | 
         | And if Apple partner with Bing and make an Apple's branded
         | search engine ( like Yahoo ) while Bing _pays_ ~$5B+ to Apple?
         | Would user notice the results were slightly worse?
         | 
         | And Google lose 20% of user search traffic, and these 20% user
         | base also happens to generate 30%+ of Ads revenue. i.e They are
         | worth a bit more than others.
        
         | 8fingerlouie wrote:
         | Safari already comes with DuckDuckGo as a suggested search
         | engine, and all it takes is Apple flipping a switch for users
         | that use the default search engine, and most of that traffic
         | would go to DDG instead of Google.
         | 
         | Many Apple users are pragmatic, and don't care as long the
         | search engine returns the results they want.
         | 
         | I've been using DDG for years, and it could be DDG has gotten
         | better, or Google has gotten worse, but where i've occasionally
         | had to do a "!g whatever" search to get google results because
         | DDG made no sense, i actually often get better results with DDG
         | these days.
        
           | brailsafe wrote:
           | It could be that you've adapted your search style to DDG as
           | well. I tried making the switch, and my god was it
           | frustrating.
        
             | soraminazuki wrote:
             | I'm having the same experience as GP. I haven't changed my
             | search style since the early 2000s, and Google search seems
             | basically unusable for me at this point.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | I doubt 90% of people even have a search style. They are
             | just searching to get to a brand's website they might not
             | know the exact spelling for. Or searching for a product
             | sold by a limited amount of retailers.
        
         | bambax wrote:
         | Yes I don't understand it either. There is zero serious
         | competition to Google, so it would be a very hard sell for
         | Apple to switch their users to a worse search engine.
         | 
         | The fact that Google is still unparalleled is also a mystery:
         | why can't Bing be good? Why can't Amazon, or Apple with all
         | their money, replicate the Google experience? This is weird.
        
           | londons_explore wrote:
           | Building a decent search engine requires query/clickstream
           | data.
           | 
           | Google has more, so Google is better. Simple.
        
             | mcphage wrote:
             | I don't know if I believe that. It sounds too similar to:
             | "Building a decent search engine requires index data.
             | Altavista has a bigger index, so Altavista is better.
             | Simple."
        
               | chrjxnandns wrote:
               | Building a good search engine requires 3 things:
               | 
               | 1) A large index 2) Clickstream data 3) Distribution
               | 
               | It's a circular scaling product, as #3 increases it
               | increases #2 which in turn improves results and leads to
               | more #3.
               | 
               | Google is buying distribution here which keeps their
               | competitors from getting the valuable clickstream data
               | that can improve their product. Thus they are reinforcing
               | the idea that their product is the "best" while
               | simultaneously preventing any competitor from matching
               | them.
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | Well that was true once. But people have higher standards
               | for search engines now that they don't want to go through
               | every result by hand, and therefore the main thing
               | they're after is the ranking algorithm not the search
               | algorithm.
        
               | mcphage wrote:
               | Right, and maybe for the next generation of search
               | engines it'll be something else again. Having the most
               | query/clickstream data is what counts now, but there's no
               | guarantee it will always count the most.
        
       | Gunax wrote:
       | That is a shocking amount. Consider that google purchased YouTube
       | for less than 2 billion.
       | 
       | And while I know YouTube wasnt the behemoth then, I find it hard
       | to believe that it is only worth 1 month of google being the
       | default.
       | 
       | And only for macintosh users! And only macintosh users who use
       | safari! And only macintosh users who use safari who don't change
       | the default search engine!
       | 
       | I am curious what that amounts to per user per year.
        
         | nikanj wrote:
         | That was in 2006. Back then a billion dollars was a lot of
         | money, nowadays it's pre-launch valuation for a startup that
         | has at least one MIT dropoff.
        
           | konschubert wrote:
           | That made me chuckle.
        
         | manarth wrote:
         | "And only for macintosh users!       And only macintosh users
         | who use safari!       And only macintosh users who use safari
         | who don't change the default search engine!"
         | 
         | Rather more users than that:
         | 
         | > to ensure that it remains the default search engine on
         | _iPhone, iPad_ , and Mac
        
           | arcticbull wrote:
           | Indeed the Mac is a rounding error at Apple.
           | 
           | > Back in January of this year, Apple confirmed there were
           | 1.65 billion active Apple devices at the time, with iPhone
           | alone accounting for one billion.
           | 
           | They're only selling 5-6m Macs per quarter. [2] They sold 90m
           | iPhones in Q4 of 2020. Extrapolating from this, _roughly_
           | speaking, that would mean of the 1.65B Apple devices, 100m
           | are Macs.
           | 
           | [1] https://screenrant.com/android-vs-apple-active-devices-
           | globa...
           | 
           | [2] https://www.statista.com/statistics/263444/sales-of-
           | apple-ma...
        
         | ur-whale wrote:
         | > Consider that google purchased YouTube for less than 2
         | billion
         | 
         | That was a long time ago (15 years ago IIRC).
         | 
         | And back then, YT was:                   a) much smaller than
         | today         b) certainly not a sure bet moneymaker         c)
         | a huge infrastructure (especially B/W) money sink
         | 
         | I don't think you are comparing things that are comparable.
        
       | ChrisArchitect wrote:
       | Apple is a media company that sells hardware, they don't need to
       | spend time figuring out and maintaining search, especially if
       | they've convinced Google to pay them that amount for the
       | privilege.
        
       | refurb wrote:
       | I actually find this fascinating as it puts a dollar figure on
       | it.
       | 
       | It's similar to the FDA priority voucher market. If you get a
       | drug approved by the FDA for a neglected disease, you get a
       | transferable voucher that gets you a priority FDA review for
       | whatever drug you use it for. It might accelerate approval by 3-6
       | months.
       | 
       | What's that worth? Well the vouchers have sold for $100-250M
       | lately.
       | 
       | https://www.fiercepharma.com/pharma/sanofi-nets-valuable-fda...
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | > Well the vouchers have sold for $100-250M lately.
         | 
         | Not to dismiss what you are saying, but "I can get regulatory
         | approval for my drug faster" seems like it got far more
         | valuable in the past, I dunno, 20-21 months or so.
        
           | refurb wrote:
           | If you're referring to Covid vaccines I'm not sure the
           | vouchers would have made much difference. The FDA moved as
           | fast as possible.
        
             | HWR_14 wrote:
             | The COVID vaccines took priority over everything (rightly
             | so). But that meant that the FDA had less time to approve
             | anything else, so priority still became more valuable.
        
       | AlbertCory wrote:
       | People who say "they can just build their own search engine"
       | should try Apple Maps.
       | 
       | Yeah, it's not bad, but from my 18 months in Google Maps, I know
       | there's a _very_ long tail you have to get through. They have
       | huge teams working on problems so small you wouldn 't even
       | realize they were problems.
       | 
       | The first 90% of maps (or search) is easy. It's the 2nd and 3rd
       | and 10th 90% that sucks up all the time.
        
         | fshbbdssbbgdd wrote:
         | Am I crazy or are the people saying that getting the headline
         | mixed up? Google is the one paying Apple fifteen billion
         | dollars here, not the other way around. Why would Apple want
         | off that gravy train? I'm sure they could make some search
         | engine, but they'd have to be better than Google at monetizing
         | it for it to be worth the effort.
        
           | qeternity wrote:
           | I think the argument goes: Google is paying a massive $15B
           | (or ca. 15% of Apple's profits) AND they are only doing that
           | because there is more than $15B in value to them.
           | 
           | So if default iOS search has value in excess of $15B, Apple
           | should just build their own and capture all of that value.
           | 
           | It's not an argument I agree with, and not one I think they
           | will pursue.
        
             | nevermindiguess wrote:
             | If your employer is paying you 250k a year you shod
             | definitely build something like this business and capture
             | all that value!)
        
             | MR4D wrote:
             | Apple's P/E ratio is roughly 29. So, if you assume that the
             | $15bn is pretty much all profit (for simplicity here
             | remember), then the value of that for AAPL is roughly $35bn
             | in market cap.
             | 
             | So it takes a _really_ good reason to kick out Google from
             | this situation.
        
               | qeternity wrote:
               | > Apple's P/E ratio is roughly 29. So, if you assume that
               | the $15bn is pretty much all profit (for simplicity here
               | remember), then the value of that for AAPL is roughly
               | $35bn in market cap.
               | 
               | Not sure where you get $35B from. 15B * 29 = $435B
        
               | vineyardmike wrote:
               | > So it takes a really good reason to kick out Google
               | from this situation.
               | 
               | Yes. The argument is that google makes more than 15b off
               | that position, so the income has to be worth it _by
               | definition_.
               | 
               | Of course, apple won't likely monetize it as well, so
               | it'll be hard to justify that.
        
         | jacobolus wrote:
         | > _People who say "they can just build their own search engine"
         | should try Apple Maps._
         | 
         | ... to be validated by concrete demonstration that Apple is
         | capable of building an excellent service if they put their mind
         | to it...
        
           | mhh__ wrote:
           | Excellent? It works but Google are pretty obviously the top
           | dog here
        
             | mminer237 wrote:
             | I know it was trash when it came out, but Apple Maps
             | surprisingly seems to often find significantly shorter
             | routes than Google. Google Maps always tells me to go to
             | the nearest interstate while Apple Maps seems better at
             | recognizing if a local highway is actually faster.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I have to double check the routing on both to make sure
               | they are not making me go through 20 traffic lights to
               | have a 10% probability of saving 45 seconds and 90%
               | probability of wasting 2 min.
        
             | wallacoloo wrote:
             | Is this true? Apple Maps came out with a feature a couple
             | years ago where it knows which intersections are stop
             | lights v.s. stop signs v.s. uncontrolled side streets.
             | Rather than saying "in 1000 feet turn left", they say "at
             | the light, turn left". As opposed to "go past this light,
             | then turn left," or "at the stop sign, turn left. Then,
             | turn right onto <street name>." If you glance at the screen
             | while this is happening, the upcoming intersections
             | helpfully have the appropriate stoplight/stopsign/etc
             | graphic on them. They've found a way to communicate
             | instructions such that you never have to worry about lane
             | positioning, or not being ready for the next turn.
             | 
             | Mind you, I juggle between Apple Maps and Google Maps _on
             | an iphone_ , so maybe Google's features are different on
             | Android. But this was the feature that finally got me using
             | Apple Maps by default, and last I checked Google still
             | hasn't implemented anything comparable on Apple.
        
               | Drew_ wrote:
               | Google Maps does a similar thing with POI's like
               | Starbucks or gas stations.
        
               | wallacoloo wrote:
               | I always struggled with that. Way easier to visually
               | identify a landmark that's _on the road_ than adjacent to
               | it, IMO.
        
               | robben1234 wrote:
               | Using Apple Maps in the few spots they actually care to
               | fully support, and using Apple Maps anywhere else in the
               | world is a very different experience.
               | 
               | While Google is able to deliver more or less the same
               | product almost anywhere.
        
               | GeekyBear wrote:
               | Google and Apple have been playing cat and mouse with
               | their map data for a while now, with Google's newest
               | version only existing in four cities: London, New York,
               | San Francisco, and Tokyo.
               | 
               | Are those the only cities Google cares to fully support,
               | or does creating new and more detailed map data take a
               | while to roll out?
        
           | AlbertCory wrote:
           | I don't doubt that it's usable in the areas where Apple cares
           | to make it so.
           | 
           | But as the comments make clear, it's all about the number of
           | 9s in the reliability. If they're 99.9% reliable, that means
           | 1 out of 1000 data points are wrong. You will definitely hit
           | a wrong one. If it's 99.9999%, then it's 1 out of 1,000,000.
           | You might not. Adding those last few 9s are _incredibly_
           | costly.
        
         | tracedddd wrote:
         | I find Apple Maps totally fine and basically on par with Google
         | maps today. It was indeed trash when it came out but I use it
         | exclusively now and haven't had any issues in a couple years.
         | My one gripe is the deep Yelp integration.
        
           | TremendousJudge wrote:
           | Where do you live?
        
           | fuckcensorship wrote:
           | Apple is taking steps to move away from Yelp:
           | 
           | https://www.macrumors.com/2021/04/22/apple-maps-ratings-
           | plac...
        
             | DantesKite wrote:
             | Thank goodness.
        
         | lowkey_ wrote:
         | I think the biggest issue with Apple building a search engine
         | is that it doesn't fit their brand and product suite.
         | 
         | Building a search engine comparable to Google requires
         | utilizing tons of data and personalization in a way that Apple
         | has never been comfortable with.
         | 
         | Apple is the company I pay more for and trust with privacy and
         | not needing to spy on me for the sake of giving me personalized
         | ads, while Google is the exact opposite.
        
         | omegalulw wrote:
         | Another relevant point to consider is "is that 10% worth it?".
         | The answer is absolutely yes - trust in a maps app is critical.
        
         | dcormier wrote:
         | It's out of date, but still an interesting read:
         | https://www.justinobeirne.com/google-maps-moat
        
         | spike021 wrote:
         | I don't think this is an entirely apt comparison.
         | 
         | You actually mention that even Google Maps has problems. I live
         | in the Bay Area and have constantly experienced problems with
         | it, including it directing me to a block or two behind the
         | actual destination, directing me to more congested routes, etc.
         | 
         | I think when Apple Maps first launched it definitely was not
         | good at all, but at this point they're roughly the same.
         | Neither are perfect and that's fine, but comparing them as
         | being drastically different levels of quality seems a bit far-
         | fetched, to me at least.
        
           | trangus_1985 wrote:
           | Google Maps may have problems, but Apple Maps still has
           | _problems_. Apple Maps still regularly takes me down roads
           | closed for months, and has huge omissions in the business
           | data set. One glaring example of the feature gap is apple
           | maps on desktop versus google maps.
           | 
           | I don't think Apple Maps is bad, btw, and i think it's very
           | good that they're trying to nip at Google's heels. But it's
           | not even close.
        
             | sswezey wrote:
             | A great example: in Austin, most surface roads' speed
             | limits were reduced by 5mph a year ago. Apple has yet to
             | update these in their maps, despite one of their offices
             | being just outside the city.
        
             | wlesieutre wrote:
             | Apple Maps is on desktop, do you mean on web? Either way,
             | try searching on DuckDuckGo: https://duckduckgo.com/?q=dire
             | ctions+new+york+to+los+angeles...
        
               | trangus_1985 wrote:
               | I guess I meant desktop web vs mobile web. And yeah,
               | that's how I use it, through DDG. It's visually low
               | density (in a bad way), and satellite view is terribly
               | slow. Among other things. But I do appreciate that
               | they're trying - Google shouldn't own maps
        
         | onetimemanytime wrote:
         | >> _The first 90% of maps (or search) is easy. It 's the 2nd
         | and 3rd and 10th 90% that sucks up all the time._
         | 
         | OK, let's look at it differently: was Apple smart to do Maps or
         | not? Think of pros and cons and we know money means nothing.
         | Apple has so much money they can spend $20 Billion in a quarter
         | on it/them if they wanted.
         | 
         | They could do the same with a "good enough" SE and then let the
         | heavy users set Google as default. Did they lose any users from
         | Apple Maps?
        
           | marcellus23 wrote:
           | Apple plays with lots of money and lots of time. They're
           | definitely okay taking a decade and tons of $$$ to catch up
           | to where Google is.
        
       | TheMightyLlama wrote:
       | I find it interesting that the value of the ~18% of market share
       | is $15B to google. I'm sure there's a further breakdown to
       | ascertain the value of a single user.
        
         | cma wrote:
         | Presumably Apple gets some value from not going with Bing, and
         | the price may meet in the middle to an extent.
        
       | zahma wrote:
       | And that about sums up the argument why Apple isn't really
       | serious about privacy. Your data is always up for sale if someone
       | bids high enough. And $15 billion is easy to part with when
       | Google considers Apple's market share, especially for mobile
       | phones and all the delicious location data they emit.
        
       | rusk wrote:
       | Remember when Apple had to pay google ... ios7 Apple Maps saga.
        
       | aYsY4dDQ2NrcNzA wrote:
       | Does this imply that there's another search engine company
       | willing to pay Apple $14B? Who's that? (Microsoft, I guess?)
        
       | ksec wrote:
       | >Now, a new report from analysts at Bernstein suggests that the
       | payment from Google to Apple may reach $15 billion in 2021, up
       | from $10 billion in 2020.
       | 
       | >Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi says that Google is likely
       | "paying to ensure Microsoft doesn't outbid it."
       | 
       | The numbers just dont make any sense, both from Google's Traffic
       | acquisition cost and Apple services revenue. And I know both
       | number fairly well.
       | 
       | I sometimes wonder if I could apply to be an analyst considering
       | most, at least most of them ever came into mainstream media tends
       | to be so wrong on tech.
        
         | upcode wrote:
         | Could you elaborate what number would make sense?
        
           | ksec wrote:
           | The total payment to Apple is roughly inlined with Apple's
           | growth on total active devices using Google. i.e Devices
           | excluding China. [0] So every two to three years you will
           | read how Google is paying more to Apple. Except Active
           | Devices hasn't grown much at all. Google is effectively
           | paying 50% premium to Apple to outbid a _hypothetical_
           | Microsoft bid.
           | 
           | CPA Cost per acquisition are already lower for Bing, and
           | Microsoft is running with lower margin. Traffic acquisition
           | costs for Google has been steady. And if it is a dramatic 50%
           | increase, I am pretty sure there will be some words on it in
           | their Quarterly Report.
           | 
           | In the past if this was coming from those usual suspect of
           | Apple's PR site, you can instantly tell it is Apple's
           | propaganda machine in the work. And this isn't the first time
           | [1] they are doing it to put pressure on both companies
           | either. But this time it is coming from "analyst".
           | 
           | To put $15B into perspective Google will be paying 10% of
           | their annual revenue to Apple.
           | 
           | There is a possibility that Apple is trying to recope a
           | potential lost of App Store revenue which is included in the
           | same services category as the search deal.
           | 
           | [0] I actually believe it is closer to active _user_ than
           | active devices. Since a single user could have two or more
           | Apple devices. But active devices is the only figure that
           | Apple publish so we use that to keep things simple.
           | 
           | [1] https://searchengineland.com/report-google-apple-safari-
           | sear...
        
       | onetimemanytime wrote:
       | Shouldn't this be illegal? Google already has a huge market share
       | yet they using profits to keep /expand market share.
        
       | spookyuser wrote:
       | Can't wait to read https://twitter.com/techemails in 10 years
        
       | HumblyTossed wrote:
       | Apple needs to invest heavily in DDG and make that the default.
       | But then, they'd probably Dark Sky it.
        
         | lallysingh wrote:
         | Isn't DDG just a bing api client?
        
           | YetAnotherNick wrote:
           | No.
        
       | spywaregorilla wrote:
       | I don't think there's a world where apple switches to bing for
       | its default search engine. But I don't think its outlandish at
       | all to imagine Apple rolls its own search engine and uses that as
       | the default here. In practice I suspect this is really just
       | google paying apple $15B not to compete with its golden goose.
        
         | snowwrestler wrote:
         | Apple did switch to Bing at one point. The default search
         | engine in Safari is likely just a matter of money to them.
         | 
         | Apple already competes with Google in some search verticals,
         | for example if you ask Siri to find a pizza restaurant, you
         | will get an iOS pop-up with results that link to Yelp for
         | reviews and Apple Maps for directions.
         | 
         | I don't see Apple competing directly against Google in general-
         | purpose search. But I could definitely see them expanding what
         | iOS does "natively" to include Siri handling more queries
         | itself rather than punting out to Google results.
        
           | Spivak wrote:
           | Which is honestly super annoying on iOS Safari because if you
           | want to highlight and search for something on a page you have
           | to go to the lookup screen, which will almost always be
           | empty, and then click the web search button.
        
           | jazzyjackson wrote:
           | do they have a deal with yelp? i wish i could swap out
           | tripadvisor as the default for maps results
        
             | brundolf wrote:
             | I wouldn't mind it if it didn't force me to install the
             | Yelp app to see more details/photos. They must have some
             | kind of deal.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Apple is rolling out their own reviews system so I expect
               | Yelp and the other sources to be phased out in the coming
               | years.
        
               | brundolf wrote:
               | I dearly hope so. It's the only thing I don't like about
               | Apple Maps.
        
             | reaperducer wrote:
             | It seems to be at least partially content-related, because
             | I've seen both Yelp and TripAdvisor in Apple Maps.
        
             | coryfklein wrote:
             | Well Apple isn't exactly known for giving things away for
             | free, so putting Yelp as the top-tier result in Apple Maps
             | is a pretty good indicator that a deal was made.
        
         | loceng wrote:
         | And it's additional $15B R&D fund for Apple to improve its own
         | search system that I can't imagine it's been developing for
         | many years now behind the scenes.
        
         | 1024core wrote:
         | > I don't think its outlandish at all to imagine Apple rolls
         | its own search engine
         | 
         | IMHO, that's the play behind Neeva[1], to be acquired by Apple.
         | But will Apple give up the sweet, sweet $$$$$ it gets from
         | Google, just to roll its own?
         | 
         | [1] https://www.neeva.com/
        
           | xyzzyz wrote:
           | Destroying Google dominance in search market will thoroughly
           | damage the company, reducing it to a husk of its former self.
           | This would enormously weaken Apple competitor, strongly
           | improving its market power. It's most definitely worth to
           | Apple more than $15B/year, as long as they can pull it off,
           | and can avoid antitrust.
        
         | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
         | I wish Apple would roll their own- free of ads. But hey- $15B
         | is a lot of money.
        
           | draw_down wrote:
           | If Apple is smart (maybe they are, maybe they aren't) they'd
           | roll that money straight into developing maps and other
           | services to lessen their devices' reliance on Google.
        
         | todd3834 wrote:
         | Didn't this already happen at one point? At least for Siri
         | results I know it did. I feel like it happened on Safari too
         | but it might just have been Siri results.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.cultofmac.com/231133/apple-takes-another-step-
         | aw...
        
           | clipradiowallet wrote:
           | I remember this! You'd ask Siri to search for something, and
           | you'd get back Bing results. I thought it was odd because I
           | had never (at the time) used Bing for anything at all.
           | 
           | That said, I haven't used an iOS device in some time, and
           | didn't know if that ever changed to Google or another
           | service(Siri search results).
        
         | justapassenger wrote:
         | Apple understands and knows how to build customer devices and
         | products. They have no understanding of web and infrastructure.
         | Building search engine is way beyond their competency as an
         | organization.
        
           | elzbardico wrote:
           | Building a search engine is mundane compared to developing
           | CPUs. It is a matter of brute work basically, an army of
           | programmers. CPU design is a lot more sophisticated.
        
             | omegalulw wrote:
             | Not really. The vast majority of CPU design is just logic
             | in Verilog/VHDL, similar to software.
        
             | sangnoir wrote:
             | > Building a search engine is mundane compared to
             | developing CPUs
             | 
             | Not for Apple - they have hardware excellence in their DNA,
             | but the web and internet services aren't a core competency
             | (yet?). They have made huge strides from the disaster that
             | was MobileMe, but they are nowhere close to where the Bing
             | or Google search teams are.
        
               | wedn3sday wrote:
               | > hardware excellence in their DNA
               | 
               | Yes, thats why my $4000 macbook pro keyboard inserts
               | double keys strokes on 50% of key presses. The excellence
               | must all be in the magic touchbar that periodically stops
               | working so I cant even use vim because the ESC key is on
               | a broken touch screen.
        
           | 2OEH8eoCRo0 wrote:
           | Apple has so much money that they can be whatever they want
           | to be. Didn't they say they have around $200B of cash on hand
           | earlier this year?
        
             | zimpenfish wrote:
             | [1] says $204B around April time, yep.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-
             | funds/sectors/sp500-every...
        
           | lucasmullens wrote:
           | I agree, but they could always acquire some search startup.
        
             | gm3dmo wrote:
             | That would be very cuil.
        
             | shagie wrote:
             | ... and then build/buy/lease the appropriate amount of
             | cloud compute to be able to host it.
             | 
             | I mean, sure they _could_ , but what would that expense
             | gain them in terms customer experience?
             | 
             | Furthermore, as inquiries of monopoly power poke at Apple,
             | there is likely little appetite (if there ever was) to
             | expand their monopoly horizontally into other industries.
        
               | spywaregorilla wrote:
               | > I mean, sure they could, but what would that expense
               | gain?
               | 
               | Giant piles of money
               | 
               | > in terms customer experience?
               | 
               | This being the top concern doesn't really mesh with the
               | game theory of google giving them $15B. If everyone
               | believed UX was apple's primary concern, and that google
               | was the best option, then google would not have to pay.
        
               | shagie wrote:
               | Unless it makes _more_ than 15B for Apple in terms of
               | being able to do something with their own search
               | (advertising?), it is a loss.
               | 
               | Google is paying for Apple to not have the default be
               | Google search. If Google wasn't paying, Apple would be
               | able to offer the default search provider to someone else
               | or make it a user selectable choice in the new phone
               | setup.
               | 
               | Google is paying to keep Apple from thinking about their
               | own provider or shifting the default to Bing.
               | 
               | https://www.statista.com/statistics/297137/mobile-share-
               | of-u...
               | 
               | Organic search from a mobile device is 60% of all Google
               | searches. If we take the 50/50 breakdown for iOS vs
               | Android and apply it there, 1/3rd of all google searches
               | are from iOS.
               | 
               | That's what Google is paying for - making sure that
               | people who don't care about their search provider
               | continue to make up 1/3 of all of their searches (and
               | data gathering).
               | 
               | The next thing to consider back on that "what would the
               | expense gain" ... does Apple have the resources to spin
               | up a 1/3 google data center. I mean, yea they do... but
               | that's _expensive_ and if they aren 't selling adds, it
               | is purely an expense.
        
           | morpheos137 wrote:
           | Google search sucks nowadays anyway comapared to 20 years
           | ago.
        
             | artiszt wrote:
             | right. it does. besides, Google paid since initial release
             | of Safari when Cupertino had decided what the final
             | design/functions of Safari were going to be -- seems many
             | forgot about that as well as where and when Goo blunt and
             | boldly went headhunting for new staff and peeps in p2p
             | underground in the days Carracho was about to become --
             | very briefly -- a much fancied p2p-client
        
           | colinmhayes wrote:
           | Apple could buy duckduckgo to go along/try to regain their
           | privacy branding. Yea, duckduckgo has a lot of work to do to
           | get to google level(afaik they're just a bing skin atm), but
           | it'd be a decent start.
        
             | Crash0v3rid3 wrote:
             | I doubt they would want to buy a search engine that heavily
             | relies on Bing.
        
           | simonh wrote:
           | They had no understanding of the phone industry, the music
           | industry, photography, etc, etc but that didn't stop them
           | learning about them and eventually dominating.
           | 
           | I don't think it's a technology issue, it's a business one.
           | They have built a position on customer privacy and moving
           | into the search/ad business is inconsistent with that. Take
           | Google's money and let the Goog take the flak on privacy.
        
             | justapassenger wrote:
             | It's not about money. Google also has all the money in the
             | world, and yet their customer devices suck. Apple has all
             | the money in the world, and yet their online services suck.
             | 
             | Those are very different worlds, that require organizations
             | built in very different way.
        
             | baxuz wrote:
             | They also had no understanding of maps, email, cloud
             | storage, or mouse ergonomics and they still don't.
        
               | simonh wrote:
               | That's fair, fortunately those don't matter as much.
        
         | zahma wrote:
         | It doesn't have to be by default. Like many other preferences
         | Apple asks when it pushes a new version of iOS or macOS, why
         | couldn't this be a choice for users?
        
         | 908B64B197 wrote:
         | > I don't think there's a world where apple switches to bing
         | for its default search engine.
         | 
         | For a long time Siri searches were powered by Bing.
        
         | qeternity wrote:
         | > But I don't think its outlandish at all to imagine Apple
         | rolls its own search engine and uses that as the default here
         | 
         | I think this is even more outlandish than switching to Bing.
         | 
         | Google Search accounted for $100B in revenues. iOS has ca. 14%
         | browser market share. Assuming that mobile users search as much
         | or are as valuable as desktop searchers, then that suggests iOS
         | users generate ca. $14B in revenue. Of course, it's likely iOS
         | users are more valuable than the average Google user, but it
         | gives a rough run of the numbers.
         | 
         | Google is happy to pay all of this revenue back to Apple so
         | that they don't suffer indirectly in other parts of the
         | business by having an Apple competitor or with Bing as default.
         | 
         | Apple on the other hand needs to generate this value from a
         | standing start. It's difficult to see how they'd feasibly get
         | to > $15B net monetization on such a massive and risky
         | undertaking.
        
         | HEmanZ wrote:
         | I really think you underestimate how hard it is to "roll a
         | search engine" the size of Google or Bing. Even a company like
         | Apple couldn't do it in anything under maybe 7-10 years,
         | regardless of how much money they throw at the problem.
        
           | bertil wrote:
           | I remember recent conversations (in June) about search
           | engines recently: there was a debate about how Bing, _and_
           | DuckDuckGo, had confusing responses to "tank man" (not the
           | imagine that Google shows and people suspect the Chinese
           | Communist Party had something to do with it). That
           | highlighted how companies who operate a search engine might
           | have delegate or contract some aspects of it.
           | 
           | It's not like Apple to not control everything, but they could
           | do something similar to alleviate the effort in the tail end.
        
             | nicce wrote:
             | Bing and DuckDuckGo are the same, which is why they seem to
             | show similar results. DuckDuckGo has some other features on
             | top of that, but is based on Bing.
        
               | bumblebritches5 wrote:
               | That's just not true.
               | 
               | the CEO of DDG has said numerous times that it's not
               | based on bing, and y'all just love repeating these wild
               | ass rumors for literally no reason.
        
           | CharlesW wrote:
           | > _Even a company like Apple couldn 't do it in anything
           | under maybe 7-10 years, regardless of how much money they
           | throw at the problem._
           | 
           | Apple has been indexing the web for years, using that for
           | Siri and Spotlight search results. They continue to make
           | improvements to their search capabilities in plain sight.
           | 
           | https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT204683
           | 
           | You can safely assume that for any critical external
           | dependencies, Apple is working on one or more Plan Bs.
        
           | eitland wrote:
           | Google managed it 20 years ago.
           | 
           | Today I guess one can have more than 50 times the compute
           | capacity at around the same price and in way smaller space.
           | (Estimating from Moores law.)
           | 
           | Given that Google has been lowering their quality over the
           | last 10 years it shouldn't be that hard to compete from a
           | technical perspective.
        
           | holografix wrote:
           | No offence but I think you're wrong. Apple could buy Duck
           | Duck Go or roll their own and LOTS of people would find it
           | good enough or do the first search on the default search
           | engine.
        
             | foo__-bar wrote:
             | Apple can't compete with Google Search by buying Duck Duck
             | Go as it relies on Microsoft Bing's shallow index. Bing (by
             | market share) has failed to compete with Google search. To
             | be good enough it's about scale not necessarily fancy names
        
             | HEmanZ wrote:
             | I mean you can disagree with me, no problem with that. I
             | would bet I have more knowledge about shipping major search
             | engines than you do. I have worked extensively on both Bing
             | and Google's search engines and now work on a third very
             | large (O(exobytes)) search engine. 7-10 years is a really
             | aggressive estimate IMO for something like Google or Bing,
             | and I gave that estimate because I don't think people would
             | believe my "realistic" estimate, even for Apple.
             | 
             | They could buy another search engine, but again getting
             | Duck Duck Go to scale Google scale and relevance is still
             | honestly a massive project.
             | 
             | I think they would risk losing people to Android phones as
             | well. If tech-illiterate people suddenly start seeing that
             | the "search engine" in Apple is terrible compared to
             | Android they could lose customers. Better to just keep
             | taking money, have a great search experience, and focus on
             | other things.
        
               | nextaccountic wrote:
               | > and now work on a third very large (O(exobytes)) search
               | engine.
               | 
               | I'm curious, can you share which one?
        
               | throwawayboise wrote:
               | I'm not the typical iPhone owner (since I don't own one)
               | but DDG is not "terrible" by any metric, especially
               | compared to Google. I've used DDG nearly exclusively for
               | a couple of years now, and every time I'm unhappy with
               | the results and try the query on Google, it's no better
               | there.
        
               | google234123 wrote:
               | Are you sure you don't have predisposition to that
               | conclusion?
        
             | jdavis703 wrote:
             | Why would Apple buy Duck when they could just sign a deal
             | directly with Microsoft? It's not like Microsoft won't know
             | Apple bought Duck when it's time to renew the contract
             | anyways.
        
           | spywaregorilla wrote:
           | Launching a competitor to Google that is the default search
           | engine on all iphones for $15B and 10 years of dev time
           | sounds like a massive win to me.
           | 
           | I think with billions of dollars in funding they could
           | accomplish a "good enough product" in 5 years personally.
           | They don't need to be as good as google.
        
             | minsc__and__boo wrote:
             | Apple still cares heavily about user experience, and relies
             | on their brand equity to charge a premium for hardware.
             | 
             | Hard to be the quality leader in the market when your
             | customers find your software inferior.
        
               | amanaplanacanal wrote:
               | Safari would be evidence against this.
        
               | minsc__and__boo wrote:
               | I don't use it - is Safari really that bad?
        
         | pcurve wrote:
         | A valid point, but I wonder how effective Apple's search engine
         | will be with their stance on user privacy. I'm sure Apple is
         | perfectly content with letting Google do the dirty work.
         | 
         | I don't think there's risk of apple building a successful
         | search engine that can compete with Google, but just paying for
         | Mac users who are not savvy enough to change their default
         | browser to Google. (or bribe against going with Duck.com)
        
           | not_math wrote:
           | DuckDuckGo is pretty good, is all about privacy and they
           | don't have way less ressources as Apple. But we saw how the
           | launch of Apple Maps was not perfect, so maybe it's easier
           | and better for them to accept the $15B.
        
             | breakfastduck wrote:
             | I tried to switch to using DuckDuckGo and found it
             | basically unusable. Essentially the same quality as Bing.
             | Maybe slightly better, but not by much.
        
               | minsc__and__boo wrote:
               | That's because DuckDuckGo is essentially a reskin of Bing
               | search. They don't do their own indexing save for a few
               | token websites.
        
             | nicce wrote:
             | DuckDuckGo is literally Bing with some privacy features.
        
               | YPPH wrote:
               | >DuckDuckGo is literally Bing
               | 
               | How so?
        
               | detaro wrote:
               | In that DuckDuckGo gives your search terms to Bing (I
               | think they also had a deal with Yandex for russian
               | queries, not sure if that's current) and receives the
               | search results back and displays them. (adding its own
               | quick results and ads)
        
               | YPPH wrote:
               | Oh, I see. Thanks.
        
               | selykg wrote:
               | I think that's simplifying it greatly. Here's their help
               | page:
               | 
               | https://help.duckduckgo.com/duckduckgo-help-
               | pages/results/so...
               | 
               | They have their own crawler as well, and there are a
               | bunch of other sources depending on what you're searching
               | for. Bing results are probably a larger part of it at the
               | end of the day, but it's not quite as you are alluding
               | to.
        
               | minsc__and__boo wrote:
               | That page is intentionally misleading. They list crawled
               | websites as 'sources'.
               | 
               | If DuckDuckGo claims to have over hundreds sources, then
               | Bing and Google have over _billions_ of sources by the
               | same definition.
        
               | detaro wrote:
               | To me that page always reads as if it tries to play up
               | their own contribution, which until there is more detail
               | makes me suspicious if the main results are meaningfully
               | influenced by them, or if it's "just" infoboxes etc.
        
               | selykg wrote:
               | Maybe, but I also think basically saying "well, it just
               | spits out Bing results" is over simplifying. There's
               | probably somewhere in the middle, as I said, I suspect
               | Bing results are a pretty large chunk of it but I also
               | try not to just hyperbolically state things ya know?
        
               | detaro wrote:
               | I don't believe "it's bing results with added extras
               | around them" is hyperbolical, given how similar DDG and
               | Bing results look everytime I try it. If it's wrong, DDG
               | would IMHO do themselves a favor by sharing more details
               | here.
        
           | BitwiseFool wrote:
           | I want a search engine that returns results solely on the
           | terms of the query. I'm so tired of search engines thinking
           | they know what I want to see based on my history. Not only do
           | I question the validity of the results when they are so
           | subject to change, I also worry I'm missing something.
        
             | zimpenfish wrote:
             | "Hey, Google, what can I use to replace white bean paste?"
             | "Hoisin sauce is a great replacement for white bean sauce!"
             | 
             | "Hey, Google, things have gone weird in macOS 12, how fix?"
             | "MACOS 4 was RELEASEd in 1912 AWKWARDLy with A spanner"
             | 
             | I get that search is a hard problem but they are
             | spectacularly bad at it for being the best.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | gigatexal wrote:
       | Do we really think Apple will launch its own privacy protecting
       | search engine if the opportunity cost is 15B and counting?
        
       | djhworld wrote:
       | I doubt many people change the default search engine on their
       | device/browser, so it must be worth it for Google.
       | 
       | Whenever I speak to my mother she refers to the web as "Google"
       | because it's the entrypoint to everything she does online. She
       | doesn't type URLs, she goes to websites by typing them into the
       | Google search box and clicking through (often the top result
       | which is usually an ad)
        
         | larrik wrote:
         | With the omnibox on chrome, firefox and mobile, this is pretty
         | much everyone now, isn't it?
        
       | shayankh wrote:
       | but what other option does Apple have anyway other than Google?
        
       | qwerty456127 wrote:
       | What would Safari switch to if Google didn't pay?
        
         | Synaesthesia wrote:
         | DDG or Bing and some local options for eg Russia and China
        
           | qwerty456127 wrote:
           | You mean Apple would handle them $15B worth of value to
           | Microsoft (or Yahoo? Isn't Bing just Yahoo reskinned with
           | fancy wallpapers?) and Yandex for free? As for DDG, despite I
           | myself like and use it, almost everyone whom I told said they
           | are not satisfied with its search results. I doubt Apple is
           | willing to harm their users satisfaction this way.
           | 
           | I would rather expect them to go introduce a search engine of
           | their own. The Runnaroo author has proven it is possible and
           | not even hard even for a single developer to build their own
           | search engine and beat Google in terms of quality and UX.
        
       | wombatmobile wrote:
       | Lest we forget...
       | 
       | August 6, 1997: In one of the most famous moments in Apple
       | history, Steve Jobs reveals that Microsoft invested $150 million
       | in its rival.
       | 
       | https://www.cultofmac.com/567497/microsoft-investment-saves-...
        
         | mcphage wrote:
         | I'm not sure what the relevance of this is?
        
           | wombatmobile wrote:
           | Yeah sorry I didn't explain it. I'm old enough to remember,
           | but perhaps a lot of HN readers aren't.
           | 
           | It's just that $15 billion may seem like a lot of money today
           | to most people and even to most corporations, but for Apple
           | and Google, it's a footnote.
           | 
           | And yet, at one time in Steve Jobs' second tenure at Apple,
           | just 1% of that quantum was the difference between Apple's
           | survival and Apple's demise.
           | 
           | Here's a better telling of the story that provides context
           | 
           | https://www.wired.com/2009/08/dayintech-0806/
           | 
           | and Walter Isaacson quoting how Jobs told it
           | 
           | https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericjackson/2012/03/01/steve-
           | jo...
        
       | yalogin wrote:
       | I wonder how they arrive at this. Does google have any pull in
       | this? What other options does Apple have at this point? No other
       | search engine comes close to google and people are really used to
       | google's UI and changing that will be very bad for the UX which
       | Apple really cares about.
        
       | chmaynard wrote:
       | Presumably this compensation by Google is pure profit for Apple.
       | If so, that might explain why Apple hasn't developed its own
       | search engine.
        
       | daniel_iversen wrote:
       | I guess Apple devices are probably responsible for a decent
       | amount of the consumer web browsing in the world (iOS has 25-30%
       | mobile device market share). I wonder if Apple is still going to
       | launch a full search engine[1] and that might actually change the
       | game (Bing has less than 3% search market share and Apple might
       | instantly get 30%!) - and they're indexing a bunch due to Siri
       | and stuff anyway.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://www.forbes.com/sites/barrycollins/2020/10/28/apple-b...
        
       | augbot wrote:
       | It would be nice to see Apple use some of that money to update
       | Safari to be more modern. Food for thought..
        
       | zyemuzu wrote:
       | Search is dead.
        
       | arein3 wrote:
       | it's not that they will instantly switch to ddg or bing or yandex
       | and provide inferior results
       | 
       | it's that if google doesnt pay or tries to negociate too hard
       | apple will know that revenue stream is not guaranteed anymore and
       | might implement their own alternative
       | 
       | some doubdt that a competitor could overtake google, but yandex
       | has image search/facial recognition capabilities miles ahead of
       | what google offers
        
       | 256DEV wrote:
       | Considering how big Apple is already ($80 billion per QUARTER!)
       | the idea that they could at some point still decide to add a
       | search engine and the associated revenues is amazing to me. It
       | obviously wouldn't be a 1-to-1 switch with Google traffic coming
       | from Apple devices but if they seriously attempted it I don't see
       | how it wouldn't be a very substantial business very quickly.
       | 
       | Presumably this payment is based on Google's evaluation of the
       | search ad value attributed to Apple devices but only $3.75
       | billion per quarter still seems low for how much iPhone search
       | traffic there must be? Especially considering the relatively
       | lower level of iPhone ad blocking vs. desktop I see anecdotally
       | in my non-tech friends. I imagine though that both companies send
       | in fairly deadly teams of apex negotiators for a deal like this
       | so it must be close to representing the true economic value of
       | the tie-up...
        
         | WanderPanda wrote:
         | I would also imagine that iPhone users are above average value
         | for advertisers because of their spending behaviour.
        
         | simonh wrote:
         | Monetising mobile search would also require Apple to develop a
         | very strong advertising platform. Doing that would put them in
         | direct conflict with themselves over privacy, either they'd
         | have to compromise privacy to benefit their ad business, or
         | their ad business would be significantly less attractive to
         | advertisers. In practice this would make it very hard for them
         | to monetise search anywhere near as well as Google can, maybe 5
         | to 1. So if mobile search is worth say $30bn to Google, it
         | might be worth $6bn to Apple.
         | 
         | Combined with the high costs of building both a search engine
         | and an ad platform, and this would result in a massive revenue
         | hit for Apple. I don't see how any vaguely realistic numbers
         | lead to them benefiting from it, at least for quite a long
         | time.
        
           | gordon_gee1 wrote:
           | They don't have to necessarily deeply monetize to be
           | successful, apple could play dumb and offer ad results based
           | on search terms only. DuckDuckGo does similar and I do wonder
           | at scale what kind of revenue this could end up being. Google
           | doesnt behave in an entirely pro-business way as well. Google
           | ads are not market efficient at the moment, with competitors
           | taking keywords that are company names for example, forcing
           | businesses to spend to be the first option even if the user
           | searches your business' exact name. Eliminating just a few
           | insulting Google search behaviors and limiting data tracking
           | could be a nice revenue stream
        
             | londons_explore wrote:
             | They have far far lower revenue per impression than
             | strongly targeted ads using ML.
        
             | gomox wrote:
             | I find it interesting that you consider the mob-like
             | behavior of Google forcing everyone to bid on their own
             | name "not efficient". It seems to me like they are really
             | efficient (at their goal of extracting tons of revenue from
             | everyone and their dog).
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | Success means revenue of at least $15bn plus the cost of
             | operating the search service and ad network. Anything less
             | is a revenue hit.
        
         | curiousmindz wrote:
         | I think that Apple would only consider building their own
         | search engine if they had the ability to generate (close to)
         | these $15B per year in value.
         | 
         | Since Apple wants to keep its privacy-friendly brand, these
         | $15B would have to come from something other than ads; and I
         | can't think of another realistic source of revenue. But who
         | knows, the whole "vertical integration" aspect could unlock new
         | scenarios...
        
           | NicoJuicy wrote:
           | You are suggesting that Apple wouldn't touch ads, but that's
           | exactly what they did with IAd
        
             | curiousmindz wrote:
             | I can't find how much revenue Apple is generating from iAd,
             | but all hints point to a fairly small number. I'm guessing
             | that Apple keeps it around to "help" small app developers
             | who build free apps.
             | 
             | And more importantly, iAd seems to focus on advertising
             | apps themselves (like a game ad inside another game). This
             | is a far less intrusive model than a general-purpose search
             | engine (where you find all kinds of advertisers).
        
               | NicoJuicy wrote:
               | iAd failed.
               | 
               | They tried to launch premium ads...
               | 
               | The launch definitely was not focused on "small
               | developers" too.
               | 
               | While keeping 40%, i don't think they were generous at
               | for the "small companies" ;)
               | 
               | So I really don't know how you can get to that
               | conclusion.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/IAd
        
           | ikerdanzel wrote:
           | Apple at software is quite bad. For 10years+ their maps and
           | majority of their toolings are weaker than the competitors.
           | Starting their own search engine is just like starting their
           | own ping that try to compete with FB back when Steve was
           | still around. I think the next 10 years we will start to see
           | Apple sputtering. Most of their revenue can be traced to
           | Steve foresight 10 years ago. Apple now is mimicking others
           | like trying to create car and streaming videos.
        
         | knorker wrote:
         | > if they seriously attempted it I don't see how it wouldn't be
         | a very substantial business very quickly.
         | 
         | I have a hard time parsing your first paragraph. Are you saying
         | Apple could build its own search engine?
         | 
         | Possibly it could. But it's not just about throwing money at
         | it. Do you remember when Google didn't brag about how big a DC
         | footprint they had? It was all hush hush.
         | 
         | Microsoft struggled to bring up a search engine. They even
         | licensed part of it. Some of the queries sent on live.com (as
         | bing was called back then) were actually sent out to third
         | party search providers.
         | 
         | Then Microsoft started bragging about how they're able to
         | operate just like Google, too.
         | 
         | ... then Google turned on search-as-you-type, or whatever it
         | was called. The one where you see search results after every
         | keystroke (since removed, because it was kinda pointless). That
         | feature was basically a big FU to Microsoft, saying "we can 10x
         | our search traffic overnight. Can you?".
         | 
         | Google reportedly stopped being secret about its capacity
         | because the secrecy was there to prevent Microsoft truly
         | understanding the scale needed to compete. Once they did
         | understand, Google stopped being so secret.
         | 
         | Apple is years behind. They don't have shovels in the ground.
         | They don't operate services at this scale.
         | 
         | Sure, they are not a small shop. But they outsource so many
         | things in this space.
         | 
         | Microsoft started from a much better position, but they still
         | took years to not be a joke in this space.
         | 
         | But yeah, with Apple building DCs, you should maybe expect them
         | to have a reasonable replacement ready in 5-10 years, if they
         | really put their mind to it.
         | 
         | And then there's the ad side. It's not just the tech (where
         | Google has a 20 year head start), but also the business deals
         | (where again 20 years head start), the inertia of existing
         | advertisers, and integration of search ads and display ads.
         | 
         | But of course, with a closed ecosystem, and actually being the
         | biggest private company in the world, they will absolutely get
         | more monopoly accusations for integrating search, app store,
         | and phone, than Google has.
         | 
         | So no, you can actually throw billions and billions at this
         | problem and still fail. It's not obvious to me that such an
         | investment will have positive ROI for 10 years.
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | I think the vast majority of people would not know the
           | difference between a Google search and a DuckDuckGo search.
           | They use search to shop the top few retailers or find the
           | actual website of a company, but I doubt many are doing the
           | deep dives that it might actually make a difference to use
           | Google with.
           | 
           | Google's moat right now is Maps, YouTube, and Drive apps, I
           | think.
           | 
           | Or at least that is my family's experience. Google search and
           | gmail were easily replaced.
        
             | knorker wrote:
             | You're focusing on the quality of results, though. That I
             | think is actually the easiest problem, to the point where I
             | didn't even list it.
             | 
             | Remember when Google+ launched, and Microsoft as a joke
             | created a clone in a week or so? That was completely
             | missing the point about what's hard.
             | 
             | Or how "make a twitter clone" is basically the "hello
             | world" of web apps. If it's just you and your friends on
             | it, actually yes you can make a twitter clone that you can
             | basically not tell the difference, and you can do that in a
             | weekend (another weekend to make the app).
             | 
             | To make a twitter clone for 10 people you can run it on
             | your laptop. For 1000 people you buy a VM in some cloud.
             | For a billion apple devices you need world wide pops, fibre
             | deals, plots of land, construction companies, resource
             | planning, legal teams, government contracts, etc...
             | 
             | Again, Apple could possibly do this. But this is not their
             | core skill. And do you know what happens when a company
             | throws billions on not their core skill? Google+ happens.
        
               | piyh wrote:
               | Why couldn't they use AWS? They already do for iCloud.
        
               | knorker wrote:
               | Reportedly not just AWS:
               | https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/report-apple-
               | is-g...
               | 
               | Admittedly they don't have to vertically integrate, and
               | they wouldn't pay list prices if they use any other
               | cloud.
               | 
               | But honestly, if the idea is to get off of Google search,
               | what exactly is the gain by relying on a third party
               | albeit at a lower level?
               | 
               | You have to ask yourself: Is running a search engine the
               | best thing that Apple could be doing with its time? Is
               | the fact that they don't run their own search engine a
               | danger to their core business?
               | 
               | In the end it comes down to projected cost and income,
               | and obviously I'm not in a position to calculate either
               | one for Apple, not being in the room with their ruthless
               | negotiators.
               | 
               | But yeah, the starting point of dropping google is losing
               | out on these $15B. So already that's what you have to
               | work with. And then the cost of public cloud egress
               | traffic, which is famously ridiculously expensive.
               | 
               | Your comment seems a bit like "why don't they just...",
               | which seems a bit naive when dealing with business at
               | this scale.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Are you suggesting DuckDuckGo would not be able to handle
               | Apple switching the default to DuckDuckGo for technical
               | reasons?
               | 
               | I do not know enough about what goes into delivering
               | people search results worldwide. I just know that my
               | family's experience switching to DuckDuckGo has been
               | seamless, but I also do not know how representative our
               | search behavior is.
        
               | PaywallBuster wrote:
               | DDG is just a frontend to bing's results
               | 
               | Why would it be difficult to scale?
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I assumed it would not be difficult to scale. I was
               | asking knorker why they thought it might not scale, as
               | that is what I thought their comment implied.
        
               | knorker wrote:
               | > Are you suggesting DuckDuckGo would not be able to
               | handle Apple switching the default to DuckDuckGo for
               | technical reasons?
               | 
               | Right, I think they would not. Not without A LOT of work,
               | on all sides of the business.
               | 
               | If you have a 1qps service, you can scale 100x[1] fairly
               | easily. If you have 1kqps[2] then scaling that to 100kqps
               | is a different beast alltogether. Every single design in
               | load balancing decision, TCP termination, request
               | routing, peering aggreements, geolocation, backend load
               | balancing, and failover, can be assumed to be wrong.
               | 
               | Or if not wrong, then at least untested and many parts
               | will not survive first contact with the enemy.
               | 
               | And that's just to get the SEARCH working at all.
               | 
               | Remember, in order to replace Google's $15B you probably
               | want some sort of revenue, too. And revenue of $15B+cost
               | of service.
               | 
               | So... ads?
               | 
               | Google has buildings and buildings full of people doing
               | nothing but ads. They have presence in pretty much every
               | major city in the world. No, I'm not just talking about
               | the engineering offices that are well known.
               | 
               | To ask Apple to create a search engine is actually to ask
               | them to create "A Google" (except Cloud).
               | 
               | According to the latest earnings report Google spends
               | about $160B and Search ads takes in about $120B. These
               | numbers are not comparable, since they are different
               | level line items. But it should be kept in mind that a
               | very naive reading of this means that yes, Apple has
               | $195B in the bank, but if they tried to "just create a
               | Google" then they'd be broke in just over a year.
               | 
               | Especially since it would be MUCH more expensive and
               | risky to build this in one big shot, than to organically
               | grow it at great profit over many years.
               | 
               | Maybe better to get an earnings report from Google pre-
               | cloud, when it was essentially an ads company by income
               | and investment. Of course it won't be comparable unless
               | Apple decides to also do an ad network. Which they
               | probably would because if you have the tech and the
               | customers, then it's free money.
               | 
               | But you said technical reason. So let's scratch ads, and
               | never mind the money. Yeah, they could be able to do
               | that. It's not clear to me how much of their search index
               | they actually own, though. They say they have a
               | crawler[3], but it sure also reads like "we're just a
               | frontend for Bing". Truth is probably somewhere in
               | between.
               | 
               | So what do you think MSFT would say if Apple started
               | hammering Bing (albeit indirectly) for search results,
               | sans ads? Or even with ads?
               | 
               | So duckduckgo is good because they don't actually have
               | their own index. Bing took _years_ to not be ridiculous
               | (it 's good now). We saw Cuil completely fail, even full
               | of ex-googlers.
               | 
               | All this to say: Writing their own search engine is hard
               | (see Bing, and how much MSFT plowed into that to make it
               | work), and DDG can't just be used as a backend. And
               | switching to DDG is just throwing $15B in the lake and
               | giving it to someone else for free.
               | 
               | [1] that's the order of magnitude difference between
               | google and ddg according to
               | https://www.wired.co.uk/article/duckduckgo-google-
               | alternativ..., of course that doesn't take into account
               | that this would only move apple traffic, but I like the
               | round number.
               | 
               | [2] 1.5B per month is about 578 per second, and with
               | seasonality that it at least 1kqps at peak.
               | 
               | [3] https://help.duckduckgo.com/duckduckgo-help-
               | pages/results/so...
        
             | gomox wrote:
             | The deep dives don't work anymore on Google search. It's
             | all content spam.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | Then I am not sure what Google search is useful for. I
               | personally have not needed to use it in a long time.
        
             | HWR_14 wrote:
             | > I think the vast majority of people would not know the
             | difference between a Google search and a DuckDuckGo search.
             | 
             | One has a small static duck. The other has a colorful name
             | that is usually replaced by pictures for a day. It's very
             | obvious.
        
         | marricks wrote:
         | Substantial how? Apple doesn't sell ads and I'm pretty sure
         | that antithetical to their business model, if they did their
         | advantage in other ways (privacy which sucks anyways) would dry
         | up.
        
           | jsnell wrote:
           | Apple build advertisement profiles on iOS users, and allow
           | App Store and Apple News ads to be targeted using said
           | profiles. They are estimated to sell billions of dollars of
           | ads per year. Their tracking is, as far as I can tell, not
           | opt in. Instead it's an opt-out hidden in an obscure settings
           | menu, with the sign "beware of the Leopard" on the door.
           | 
           | See https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT205223
           | 
           | So it absolutely isn't antithetical to their business model.
           | The opposite: Apple's business model is to lock users to
           | their platform, and extract rent out of as much of their
           | economic activity as possible. If anything, third party
           | advertisers making money from iOS users directly without
           | giving Apple a cut is what's antithetical to Apple's business
           | model.
           | 
           | It seems basically guaranteed that within a couple of years
           | Apple will be doing another attempt at launching an ad
           | network for third party apps and/or web sites (Safari-only)
           | using the same tracking data.
        
           | gpt5 wrote:
           | Apple does sell search ads. Search the App Store for almost
           | anything...
        
         | nojito wrote:
         | They already do.
         | 
         | If you're on iOS, swipe down and use that search bar.
        
       | jstx1 wrote:
       | Seems like a lot. I wonder how Google do the analysis to decide
       | that it's worth it or how many people use search through Safari
       | instead of Google's app.
        
       | marstall wrote:
       | if this was Apple's only income (somehow), what market cap would
       | that translate to?
        
       | programmer_dude wrote:
       | If this is true, wow, the Apple walled garden is big! This
       | answers a question I had: why do people care about the Neural
       | hash thing so much?
        
       | yawaworht1978 wrote:
       | If they pay 15billion, the revenue number must be astronomic,
       | very curious to know the net revenue for this. It's valuable to
       | Google anyway, as part of branding pr.
        
       | TriStateFarmer wrote:
       | Who uses search engines anymore?
       | 
       | Most new data is on Facebook/Twitter/Discord etc. Shoppers search
       | on Amazon. Video consumers search on YouTube.
       | 
       | My point is that is must be *super easy* to build a search engine
       | nowadays. You only need the best 10% of websites and you have got
       | most of the quality content. Vast majority of websites are now
       | irrelevant remains of the old internet.
       | 
       | Most searches could be answered by their Siri system.
       | 
       | Therefore Apple could build a functional search engine in months,
       | and I guess they already have one ready to go for when it is
       | needed.
        
         | miohtama wrote:
         | > Who uses search engines anymore?
         | 
         | I do. It is a bas assumption to think all other, or even most
         | of the other users, have similar usage habits as you are or are
         | using the same services as you do, unless there are numbers to
         | back the claims.
        
       | janandonly wrote:
       | DuckDuckGo is good and getting better while Google is mire
       | bloated and irrelevant by the minute...
       | 
       | So, Whenever I help a friend with their iDevice the first thing I
       | do is change default searching to DDG.
       | 
       | End game: Google stops paying Apple and Apple buys DDG.
        
         | chimen wrote:
         | You should feed your own ego a bit more and make their devices
         | vote for Trump on next election because you seem to know better
         | what they need. DDG is cool and usable but to go that far and
         | change my family's or friends default SE with something else
         | which is inferior, unexpected and uncalled for is just..rude to
         | say the least. A tool is a tool and people should use the best
         | there is otherwise you're just putting them on a competitive
         | disadvantage in life since we use a SE for almost anything
         | these days.
        
         | thejackgoode wrote:
         | I tried switching to DDG three times over last 6 years, and I
         | always move back after I end up adding !g every second time
         | when searching because the results are outrageously irrelevant.
         | DDG does not understand me as Google does, bad or good thing it
         | might be.
        
           | troebr wrote:
           | Even when DDG does well, very often I'll still add in a
           | second search with !g in case Google has an even better
           | result. Some searches have one answer (what's the population
           | of Paris), whereas some searches have multiple answers and
           | you want to pick the best result(s) (how to do x).
        
           | redm wrote:
           | I had the exact opposite result. I've been using DDG for
           | about 2 years and I rarely use Google now.
        
         | post_break wrote:
         | You're like the human version of malwarebytes. Sure I'll fix
         | your computer, but I'm going to change your default search
         | engine, oh you don't mind this toolbar either do ya? Bonzi
         | Buddy over here.
        
       | josh_today wrote:
       | I had to reread and confirm that it's $15B per _year_
        
       | NelsonMinar wrote:
       | For comparison, Google appears to be paying Mozilla about
       | $400M/year. https://www.zdnet.com/article/sources-mozilla-
       | extends-its-go...
        
         | INTPenis wrote:
         | Wow! You'd think with that kind of money they'd be able to fix
         | 10 year old bugs in Firefox.
         | 
         | What the hell is that money going towards?
        
           | BugsJustFindMe wrote:
           | > _What the hell is that money going towards?_
           | 
           | Probably a really expensive dustpan for all the salt that
           | people throw at them.
        
           | rednerrus wrote:
           | Company wide vacations.
        
       | Barrin92 wrote:
       | Compare this payment to the statement of Google that
       | "alternatives are just one click away" in the context of search
       | engine competition.
       | 
       | Pretty hard to square the notion that value delivered, not
       | defaults and market power matter when you pay 15 billion for that
       | one click
        
         | lallysingh wrote:
         | I think you're just seeing the value of being the first click.
        
       | morpheos137 wrote:
       | I don't understand how this is legal. Seems like blatantly
       | anticompetitive behaviour. Isn't it still dumping if the price of
       | your product is so low that it is negative?
        
       | chrjxnandns wrote:
       | So this is more than an entire year of revenue for Bing. How is
       | it not anti-competitive that the dominant player spends an
       | unattainable amount of money to keep their next biggest
       | competitor out of the market?
        
       | prvc wrote:
       | The considerations that would inform such an agreement are far
       | beyond my comprehension. I suppose we may draw the lesson from
       | the presumptive wisdom of this decision that software defaults
       | are very important (hobbyist developers take note!) and also that
       | large figures ought to be nice, round numbers.
        
       | quanto wrote:
       | Could one do a back-of-the-envelope calculation on a user
       | acquisition cost for Google?
       | 
       | 15b USD/year / 500 m users = 30 USD/user/year
       | 
       | 3 searches/user/day = 1000 searches/user/year
       | 
       | 30 USD/user/year / 1000 searches/user/year = 0.03 USD/search
       | 
       | AFAIK, 0.03 USD per search (or impression) is in the right
       | ballpark for advertising.
       | 
       | ------------------------
       | 
       | Data used (retrieved from Google) 446m Safari users. An average
       | user searches on Google 3 - 4 times per day.
        
         | polote wrote:
         | You have to include the cost of preventing competitors to get
         | bigger. If Google loose its monopoly on search Google as a
         | whole might collapse
        
         | tyingq wrote:
         | Might be skewed a bit by the fact that iPhone users are
         | generally more affluent.
        
         | jyu wrote:
         | If only I could pay Google $30 / year to opt out of their data
         | collection schemes.
        
           | MichaelZuo wrote:
           | I'm fairly sure a lot of folks would sign up at even
           | $30/month, if any product managers are reading this.
        
             | tialaramex wrote:
             | I suspect that what people want with "No data collected" is
             | too nebulous to be actionable, at $30/ month or any price.
             | Youtube Premium is something actionable, "I don't want
             | adverts". OK then, no adverts, done for the price.
             | 
             | If you try to take it literally it blows up immediately.
             | _Who_ aren 't we collecting data about? We can't very well
             | have data like login credentials for a user we don't
             | collect data about, so...
        
             | Joeri wrote:
             | Sort of reminds me how I can't get a digital newspaper
             | without ads, regardless of what I'm willing to pay, or how
             | every cable tv provider in my region has unskippable ads in
             | on demand and (soon) recorded tv programs, regardless of
             | what I pay. The content industries are very much stuck in a
             | "content must be financed through advertising" mindset, and
             | google seems trapped with them. I can easily imagine a paid
             | privacy-first google premium service that strips out google
             | ads across the internet, and I would pay for it, but
             | apparently google's imagination is more limited. So now I
             | just use ad blockers.
        
             | misiti3780 wrote:
             | I would pay a lot more than 30
        
             | nathancahill wrote:
             | Give me back the advanced search operators and I'm in for 3
             | figures/month.
        
             | irjustin wrote:
             | This would be an interesting product especially to those
             | who are relatively price insensitive such as companies.
             | 
             | One of the perks of working for us is a google no-ads
             | subscription! could work?
        
           | samsolomon wrote:
           | Yeah, that's an average though. If you don't hesitate about
           | spending $30, you're probably worth a lot more to
           | advertisers.
        
             | minsc__and__boo wrote:
             | If you have disposable income to spend $30 on an internet
             | service, it's likely you also have a mortgage. Mortgage
             | search ads alone are around $10 a click IIRC.
        
           | VikingCoder wrote:
           | Here. [1] I saved you $30 a year.
           | 
           | [1] "Turn Web & App Activity on or off" https://support.googl
           | e.com/websearch/answer/54068?co=GENIE.P...
        
             | dylan604 wrote:
             | I'm not this does anything for privacy though. In my tin-
             | foil hat mode, I think they take your data and use it how
             | ever they want. If you have this enabled, they do these
             | "local to you" type of things, and if it is disabled then
             | it goes to the main search. However, that does not prevent
             | them from saving that data linked to you in another
             | table/database. It just means you no longer get the
             | "benefit", but you never prevent Googs from benefiting.
        
             | uo21tp5hoyg wrote:
             | Isn't this one of those sneaky "we'll still harvest your
             | data we just won't save it to your account activity viewer"
             | type deals?
        
               | VikingCoder wrote:
               | What evidence could I or anyone else offer that would
               | convince you?
               | 
               | I'm not trying to be a jerk, I'm genuinely curious what
               | you think could convince you. Perhaps you could get a job
               | at Google and investigate the relevant code?
        
               | dmitriid wrote:
               | This came from documents unsealed in Google v. Oracle.
               | 
               | Opting out of that doesn't mean Google stops tracking
               | you. Only some parts of its machinery stop. Even Google's
               | own employees have no idea which parts collect which
               | data.
        
               | dmitriid wrote:
               | To all those downvoting, read yourselves
               | https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2020/08/unredacted-
               | suit-...
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | floridageorgia wrote:
           | With 75% gross margin, it would bring the opt out price to
           | $120/year. Would you still want to opt out at that price?
        
         | the-golden-one wrote:
         | On a similar note, assuming this is done with a default='true',
         | would this not be a contender for the most expensive code per
         | letter ever?
        
         | dannyr wrote:
         | I think part of it is user acquisition and another is
         | preventing another competitor to gain traction.
        
         | ricardo81 wrote:
         | I can't recall the source of how much Google makes per CPM on
         | average, but it's significantly higher than all other search
         | engines. If the deal is cheap/value for anyone, it's Google. It
         | may have been in the UK CMA report on search/online
         | advertising, IIRC it was between $30 and $50 CPM with Bing on
         | around half that.
         | 
         | If my arithmetic is right, 1.5bn searches would increase DDG's
         | number of searches 15 fold. It would seem only Bing is
         | potentially capable of putting in a bid similar to Google's.
        
         | arcticbull wrote:
         | My digging indicates that Apple has 1.65B active devices as of
         | Q1 2021. The vast majority (1B) are iPhone users, and I suspect
         | the vast majority of iOS users use Safari.
         | 
         | Sounds like Google is getting a pretty good deal.
        
           | znpy wrote:
           | Every iPhone user is a safari user AFAIK.
           | 
           | AFAIK on iOS you cannot distribute an alternative browser (as
           | in UI, network engine and rendering engine) --- you can only
           | distribute what is essentially a skin over the default
           | browser, Safari.
        
             | HWR_14 wrote:
             | On iOS you have to use their JS virtual machine and their
             | HTML5 renderer. I think you can write your on UI and
             | possibly network engine (although that might be locked down
             | as well, but you can definitely proxy all the results.
        
             | twobitshifter wrote:
             | But those skinned browsers can have a different default
             | search engine
        
           | EE84M3i wrote:
           | Google is not the default search engine in China.
        
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