[HN Gopher] Fighting Like Taliban
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       Fighting Like Taliban
        
       Author : robertwiblin
       Score  : 133 points
       Date   : 2021-08-23 13:14 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (scholars-stage.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (scholars-stage.org)
        
       | forkLding wrote:
       | Afghanistan was a war of attrition that the locals felt the most
       | of. Likely one of those wars that your dad and granddad fought
       | (if you trace it back from the Soviet invasion) and somehow you
       | also ended up fighting in. After a while everyone gets tired and
       | they want to live in peace and not die in a war.
       | 
       | Can see why it ended the way it did.
        
         | NonContro wrote:
         | After reading this article, Afghanistan doesn't seem inherently
         | like a war of attrition at all.
         | 
         | "Men fought, men switched sides, men lined up and fought again.
         | War in Afghanistan often seemed like a game of pickup
         | basketball, a contest among friends"
         | 
         | It seems more like renaissance Europe, where armies of
         | Condottiero would parade against eachother, and the smaller or
         | less extravagant side would back down.
         | 
         | This probably didn't suit the USA, who wanted real, bloody war,
         | to justify trillions of dollars of military spending. Just like
         | Vietnam: 'body count'.
         | 
         | "The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax
         | bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan and back into
         | the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an
         | endless war, not a successful war"
         | 
         | - Julian Assange, 2011
         | 
         | Rapid takeover by the Taliban instead of months of dragged out
         | death and destruction is a fair outcome for the country.
        
           | at-fates-hands wrote:
           | >> This probably didn't suit the USA, who wanted real, bloody
           | war, to justify trillions of dollars of military spending.
           | Just like Vietnam: 'body count'.
           | 
           | The role of the US went from hunting and killing Taliban to
           | not allowing them a permanent base from which to launch
           | terror attacks to "nation building" where the military was
           | then building schools and gas stations. The US never wanted a
           | "bloody war". If they did, they could end the Taliban in the
           | span of a few weeks, just like they did ISIS. It wouldn't be
           | a war, it would be a rampage for which many in the US
           | population and politicians wouldn't have the stomach for.
           | Thus, we have "surgical strikes" and operations that go above
           | and beyond protecting civilian casualties.
           | 
           | >> Rapid takeover by the Taliban instead of months of death
           | and destruction is actually the best possible outcome for the
           | country.
           | 
           | I'm not sure how replacing the US military with the Taliban
           | is considered "the best possible outcome for the country."
        
             | captain_price7 wrote:
             | > If they did, they could end the Taliban in the span of a
             | few weeks, just like they did ISIS. It wouldn't be a war,
             | it would be a rampage...
             | 
             | This whole paragraph seems utterly bizarre.
             | 
             | US did NOT "end" ISIS, certainly not alone. Most of the
             | fighting and dying was done by Shia and Kurdi forces inside
             | Iraq whose lives literally depended on stopping ISIS. US
             | failed in Afghanistan precisely because no such ally
             | existed.
             | 
             | And, what exactly do you mean by "rampage"? There seems to
             | be an awful implication- "if US forces didn't bother about
             | civilian casualties, Taliban could be surely defeated".
             | Which I suppose is true, there can't be any Taliban if
             | there isn't any more afghan.
        
             | watwut wrote:
             | > Thus, we have "surgical strikes" and operations that go
             | above and beyond protecting civilian casualties.
             | 
             | While US army is significantly better then Taliban, the
             | surgical strikes killed civilians fairly regularly and wish
             | to protect civilians is not exactly "above and beyond".
             | 
             | > I'm not sure how replacing the US military with the
             | Taliban is considered "the best possible outcome for the
             | country."
             | 
             | I think that OP meant "compare to 2 years long war after
             | which Taliban takes power anyway". That was the estimation
             | as America was leaving - that ANA will be able to hold off
             | for two years. They were not expected to win, but they were
             | not expected to fold that fast.
        
               | ilammy wrote:
               | > _They were not expected to win, but they were not
               | expected to fold that fast._
               | 
               | There was no way they did not know US assessment of the
               | capabilities. Why _would_ you fight a war that you know
               | you 're not likely to win anyway?
               | 
               | Only if you genuinely believe US advisers are delusional
               | and your side will certainly prevail.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | US advisors were delusional, that seem to be sure now.
               | 
               | I mean, I agree with that logic, theoretically.
               | Theoretically, if you know you will loose in 2 years, it
               | is better to not fight and hope your treatment will be
               | better as result.
               | 
               | But, groups did hold up and fought lost or seemingly lost
               | wars. It is not just that they logically concluded it is
               | all helpless and gave up. That does not seem to be the
               | only or primary factor here.
        
               | at-fates-hands wrote:
               | >> US advisors were delusional, that seem to be sure now.
               | 
               | The numbers the military were giving them were completely
               | inaccurate.
               | 
               | Biden said the Afghan army was 400K strong. It was not.
               | It wasn't even close. The most recent figures put the
               | Afghan army conservatively at 170K. Imagine touting a 4:1
               | advantage and then realizing, it's more like a 1:1
               | contest.
               | 
               | The Taliban numbers were way off too. The media and
               | politicians were saying they had 50-75K, when in reality
               | their numbers are closer to 100K if not more. Even back
               | in 2018 they were saying they were 85K+.
               | 
               | The military chiefs saying they had trained that many
               | Afghans was also wildly inaccurate. One of my family
               | members was part of the Marines who were tasked with
               | training the Afghans. He said it was nearly impossible to
               | train them because they never took it seriously. They
               | never expected the US to leave them. For many, it was a
               | cushy paycheck that put them on easy street - it was
               | never about defending their country, or having a sense of
               | patriotism or duty. He repeatedly called them "clowns"
               | and after a year, he asked to be reassigned and told his
               | superiors the training was useless and there was no way
               | these men would fight anybody, even with the best
               | equipment and training they provided.
               | 
               | The assessments being made were incredibly off base and
               | not even close to being accurate. The information that
               | should've been coming out of there was the Afghan force
               | was very small, barely trainable, and would never fight
               | the Taliban or any other group regardless of how much you
               | pay them or equip them or train them. Instead,
               | politicians were repeatedly fed a fantasy about how the
               | Afghans had a huge force, were trained by the best and
               | fully capable to defend their country when the draw down
               | or withdrawal happened.
               | 
               | When you talk to people who were over there and ask them
               | what they saw and experienced? None of them are surprised
               | by what happened. When you ask the Joint Chiefs and
               | politicians in Washington? Total confusion and shock.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | All that amounts to evidently delusional US advisors, for
               | years.
               | 
               | And on US side, it resembles corporations in a way. The
               | more optimistic report you give, the more you are
               | rewarded. If you talk about issues, you are sidelined. So
               | people down on hierarchy know there are issues and high
               | on hierarchy get to pretend how good everything is.
               | 
               | On afghan side, it amounts to organization capable people
               | who have choice won't join. You join it to get free meal,
               | to steal a thing or two. You join it if you don't have
               | much perspective otherwise.
               | 
               | Patriotism can't be motivation either, because Afghan
               | would be joining American led army. And expectations that
               | US will be there forever was fairly reasonable too. It is
               | atypical for US to leave I they can have influence.
        
               | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
               | >> They never expected the US to leave them. For many, it
               | was a cushy paycheck that put them on easy street - it
               | was never about defending their country, or having a
               | sense of patriotism or duty.
               | 
               | To be fair, it's hard to imagine any person with
               | patriotic feelings accepting to be trained by the
               | invaders of their country to become a kind of native
               | garrison for them.
               | 
               | Although I don't pretend to understand how Afghans saw
               | the war, the US, their allies, or the Taliban, or
               | anything else. It can't have been simple.
        
         | clipradiowallet wrote:
         | > Can see why it ended the way it did.
         | 
         | If we learn from all that history, I would imagine it has not
         | ended at all.
        
         | nullifidian wrote:
         | It wasn't anywhere near close to a war of attrition. It was a
         | war of different value systems, and one of these value systems
         | simply can't win certain types of war. For Taliban it was not a
         | problem to hide among the civil population, and for the
         | Americans it was problematic to commit China-style ethnocide,
         | or at the least institute authoritarianish high-security
         | measures, depopulate the rural areas, to actually win this war.
        
           | xtian wrote:
           | You're saying the US was constrained by its strong sense of
           | morality? https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/21/world/asia/us-
           | soldiers-to...
        
           | jeltz wrote:
           | Then why did the Americans not accept the Taliban surrender?
           | No, this was not a war of value systems, this is just proof
           | of how hard someone can fight if you do not allow them to
           | surrender.
        
           | mcguire wrote:
           | I can recommend _21st Century Ellis: Operational Art and
           | Strategic Prophecy for the Modern Era,_ edited by B. A.
           | Friedman. It is a collection of articles written by Ellis
           | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Hancock_Ellis) starting
           | with one on the Philippine-American War, an early example of
           | a loose manual on how to handle counter-insurgency.
           | 
           | It also contains his "Advanced Base Operations in Micronesia"
           | which was essentially the US Marines portion of the Navy's
           | plans for WWII in the Pacific.
        
           | forkLding wrote:
           | War of attrition encompasses guerrilla warfare which is what
           | the Taliban used, see definition:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Attrition_warfare
           | 
           | War of attrition does not mean casualty numbers, it means the
           | goal of the war is to wear down the enemy so that their will
           | to fight collapses which both the Taliban and the US tried to
           | do, see: https://www.csis.org/analysis/afghan-war-attrition-
           | peace-tal...
        
             | forz877 wrote:
             | >War of attrition does not mean casualty numbers
             | 
             | War of attrition almost certainly requires high continual
             | casualty numbers, it's literally in the first sentence of
             | the Wikipedia article:
             | 
             | > Attrition warfare is a military strategy consisting of
             | belligerent attempts to win a war by wearing down the enemy
             | to the point of collapse through continuous losses in
             | personnel and materiel.
        
           | kiba wrote:
           | I don't believe these measures contrary to our values would
           | be something that helps us "win" the war, especially not in
           | way that we would have liked.
           | 
           | But I do believe that the American people's heart were not
           | into the fight, especially when it became a "forgotten" war.
           | If we commit our full effort and our mind, we might have won
           | the way we would stomach.
           | 
           | In the end, if this is not the kind of war the American
           | people are willing to fight, then we shouldn't entered them.
        
             | merpnderp wrote:
             | Afghanistan has always been poor and its people fractured
             | because it was cut off from the world by its topography,
             | but topography can be overcome.
             | 
             | If the US had spent the last 20 years building
             | infrastructure, railroads, highways, mining operations,
             | schools to train engineers, managers, and professionals,
             | Afghanistan would likely look a lot different.
             | 
             | But the US missed even low hanging fruit like making
             | poppies a legitimate crop by giving Afghanistan a cut of
             | the legal opioid market.
        
               | nemo44x wrote:
               | 60% of Afghanistan is illiterate. An improvement from
               | when NATO forces invaded 20 years ago, but not too much
               | better. I don't think your infrastructure dreams would
               | have had any efficacy.
        
               | merpnderp wrote:
               | What does someone working in a primitive mine need with
               | literacy? It would be a job that paid a lot better than
               | subsistence farming and might allow that person to send
               | their kids to school to become engineers.
               | 
               | Without railroads and highways, Afghanistan will never
               | move forward. It should have been the first thing we did,
               | and not only to link up cities, but to locations with
               | large amounts of natural resources to build up some
               | wealth and industry.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | It was making training army difficult for American troops
               | for example. Soldiers complained about it.
               | 
               | Such high illiteracy rates will make it impossible to
               | build enough of management and general bureaucracy needed
               | to build anything large. It will make it hard to train
               | workers in technology. You won't build railroads nor
               | roads, you won't mainten them either.
               | 
               | Primitive mines are not competitive. They are not
               | producing enough to feed you. And hungry people won't
               | save money for school. You need technology.
        
               | MichaelGroves wrote:
               | > _20 years building infrastructure, railroads, highways,
               | mining operations, schools to train engineers, managers,
               | and professionals_
               | 
               | 20 years? Zahir Shah tried this for 40 years. Amanullah
               | Khan also tried, as did several others. Numerous would-be
               | reformers have thought as you do and tried to impose
               | change on Afghanistan, and all their efforts have
               | culminated in the situation we have now. It's been
               | approached from a number of ideological/political
               | directions. Some were monarchs, others proponents of
               | republics. The PDPA/Soviets tried it from a
               | Marxist/Leninist angle with lots of bloodshed, while
               | Zahir Shah tried to create a constitutional monarchy and
               | refrained from murdering his political opponents. Neither
               | succeeded in the end.
               | 
               | What would you bring to the table that hasn't been tried
               | before?
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | sureglymop wrote:
             | The goal was never to "win". It was to build up an army
             | (the afghan army) that could eventually stand by itself and
             | defend the government in place.
             | 
             | This was a largely failing effort even years ago,
             | considering that most of the afghan army were made up of
             | people from the north of Afghanistan and previous
             | geopolitics (north/south) play a role. The people in the
             | south would at times trust the taliban over sympathisers
             | for the previous northern warlords which had influence over
             | members of the afghan army.
             | 
             | See this documentary (from 8 years ago) about how utterly
             | lost and helpless this situation has always been:
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ja5Q75hf6QI
        
               | kiba wrote:
               | By "win", I meant whatever strategic goal, clearly
               | defined, we hope to accomplish there. And then we spend
               | our full effort to achieve that.
               | 
               | If we do not know our goals, and not willing to spend
               | blood and treasure, then what are we doing there?
        
               | AniseAbyss wrote:
               | I disagree, in the beginning the Americans were hopeful
               | they could impose a puppet state with permanent US
               | military bases. Look at a map and you can see the allure.
               | Nobody in the region was particularly enthusiastic with
               | that idea.
        
               | mcguire wrote:
               | Nobody was particularly enthusiastic about the Taliban,
               | either. Except perhaps the Pakistanis, who wanted a
               | relatively friendly, stable country on their border
               | (IIRC, there was an oil/gas pipeline involved.)
        
             | mcguire wrote:
             | Keep in mind that, whether or not the initial invasion of
             | Afghanistan was justified, it immediately became a football
             | in the US political game. George W. Bush was elected on a
             | platform that included "no nation building", and he
             | certainly didn't. (I have a personal theory that the
             | invasion of Iraq was solely due to the fact that the war in
             | Afghanistan as of 2002-3 was not going to get Bush re-
             | elected. Bush also failed to include the costs of the
             | Afghanistan and Iraq wars in his 2005 budget
             | (https://www.nytimes.com/2004/02/03/us/president-s-budget-
             | pro...).)
             | 
             | The war in Afghanistan was started badly, continued
             | thoughtlessly, and, naturally, ended poorly. As it was
             | originally destined to do.
        
           | darkerside wrote:
           | Much like the Napoleonic invasion of Moscow, the key was home
           | field advantage. Not in the classic Russian winter sense.
           | 
           | Once Napoleon's army arrived in Moscow, there was a "what
           | now" aspect to the war. They'd accomplished the goal that was
           | set out and defeated Russia, but they didn't actually want to
           | live in Moscow. So, they eventually left to go fight the
           | Russian army, which had seemingly and unbelievably abandoned
           | its crown city to the invaders. But they hadn't. Because
           | Moscow was home, whether it was filled with these unseemly
           | visitors or not. There was no way Napoleon's forces could win
           | unless the Russians actually decided to sign a piece of paper
           | and let them.
        
           | MichaelGroves wrote:
           | > _commit China-style ethnocide, or at the least institute
           | authoritarianish high-security measures, depopulate the rural
           | areas_
           | 
           | The PDPA and Soviets tried this, and it didn't work. Together
           | they killed tens of thousands of combatants and hundreds of
           | thousands, if not millions, of civilians. Millions more were
           | displaced. And what did they get for that bloodshed?
           | Certainly not the reform they sought.
           | 
           | You may as well try to crush a fistful of water.
        
       | steve76 wrote:
       | War is bad. We should try to limit it. War can easily kill us
       | all. Sounds simple, but very few people believe that. They either
       | see weakness and advance their own criminal leadership. Or they
       | reject it outright, turn from human to animal, and settle
       | contention through territory expansion, something the USA stopped
       | doing a century ago.
       | 
       | Fight enough, you find out wins mean nothing, and what matters
       | are arthritic knuckles which cripple and kill you. I think the
       | next step in this is leaders will not care if millions of their
       | own followers are horribly murdered. They didn't care about the
       | riots or the doubling murder rate. Why should they care about the
       | terror, as long as they are in power? That is much more
       | frightening than mindless loyalties or cold ambition. Along with
       | curing disease and not giving people the cure, and geoengineering
       | a planet just for your own needs. Now that will solve this
       | problem quick.
        
       | yawaworht1978 wrote:
       | No way to impose any sort of external order there. Russia was
       | there, US/UK and half NATO have been there, the insurgent groups
       | have financing via drugs and God knows what else(look at Colombia
       | how much drug financed groups can hold back progress). All the
       | foreign forces have done plenty of damage and lost credibility.
       | Looking back, what in the world made Russia go there in the first
       | place and then the USA? Why is this matter not settled yet?
       | 
       | This has gone past many administrations and advisors, and yielded
       | nothing.
       | 
       | Does anyone know if the Taliban actually have some sort of
       | popular support there or only by fringe groups?
        
         | MeinBlutIstBlau wrote:
         | It's obviously an islamic dominated country, and by the fact
         | that the military and government fell so quickly, it's as if
         | everyone knew the US would leave and everyone secretly actually
         | wanted the Taliban. Us westerners like to look at "The Taliban"
         | as some evil anti-women hate group but what most woke
         | westerners are too scared to bring up is that this is Islam in
         | it's barest of forms. Especially among illiterate peoples. The
         | Taliban has ridiculous support and has had it for the longest
         | time primarily because many people want the sort of religious
         | regime. While us enlightened democratic types like to think
         | democracy is so great, it actually makes change very difficult.
         | Especially essential change such as controlling the local petty
         | lords that essentially enslave people in perpetual bondage like
         | serfs. The only way you can do away with that is an even more
         | powerful authority higher than them that people can support. If
         | some man with a turban and thousands of men with AK-74's need
         | to tell you Allah does not approve of enslaving Muslims, guess
         | what, you're gonna be hard pressed to fight back when all other
         | lords are gonna be fearing for themselves too.
         | 
         | Too many pampered Americans like to think we can solve all
         | problems by petitioning the government and talking. Vocal
         | ignorant influencers love to believe we can solve all problems
         | peacefully at all times and all situations are the same because
         | they grew up in a nice little suburb. In reality globally, it
         | only uniquely works in cultures where that has been integral to
         | the establishment of the actual nation. I mean South Korea and
         | much of Central and South America has been governed by Military
         | Juntas for decades and they have become far more freer than any
         | place that was given democracy outright like Afghanistan and
         | Iraq. The tight grip and control on people is meant to get them
         | adjusted to the new way of life. As time progresses, reforms
         | occur to ensure stability and people don't go rioting in the
         | streets to establish another government that totally undermines
         | all the work done to ensure the system continues.
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | > Us westerners like to look at > "The Taliban" as some evil
           | anti-women hate group but what most woke westerners are too
           | scared to bring up is that this is Islam in it's barest of
           | forms. Especially among illiterate peoples. The Taliban has
           | ridiculous support and has had it for the longest time
           | primarily because many people want the sort of religious
           | regime
           | 
           | Those are not mutually exclusive. You write about it as if
           | there was contradiction and they somehow were not women
           | hating as proven by them being religious.
           | 
           | They are exactly that. Besides, misogyny and
           | authoritarianism/violence are related almost everywhere.
        
         | acjohnson55 wrote:
         | I'm no expert, but I'm fairly sure power there is fragmented,
         | hierarchical, and transactional. Popular support does not
         | figure in. According to Wikipedia, "As estimated by the CIA
         | World Factbook, 26% of the population was urbanized as of 2020.
         | This is one of the lowest figures in the world."
         | 
         | It's probably a fair bet that the urbanized population does not
         | support the Taliban, but they can't stand alone. The warlords
         | and Taliban want control over the largest city, and Kabul
         | depends on the countryside. Think about the urban-rural
         | cultural divide in the US, but imagine that rural people vastly
         | outnumbered urban and that there was no central monopoly on
         | violent force.
         | 
         | Another interesting question is why should the Taliban be
         | stronger than any other potential leadership group? I suspect
         | this comes down to their past success, their connections to
         | Pakistan, and their appeal to international fighters.
        
         | nickff wrote:
         | The Taliban are power-hungry and ruthless, while their external
         | (Pakistan/ISI & China) supporters don't mind it.
         | 
         | In an battle between kindness and ruthlessness, (especially
         | where the former is less committed than the latter,) the
         | ruthless will always win. Put another way, if you had one side
         | giving you aid (food/medicine) in exchange for support, and the
         | other (credibly) threatening to kill you for disloyalty, what
         | would you do? You'd probably feign support for the former, and
         | never betray the latter.
        
           | captain_price7 wrote:
           | > if you had one side giving you aid (food/medicine) in
           | exchange for support
           | 
           | I'm afraid you have an awfully rosy version of what life was
           | like for an average rural afghan under American rule.
           | 
           | Here are some links to get started-
           | 
           | - https://www.nytimes.com/2015/09/21/world/asia/us-soldiers-
           | to...
           | 
           | - https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/sep/09/us-soldiers-
           | af...
           | 
           | - https://news.abs-cbn.com/global-
           | filipino/world/01/12/12/outr...
        
             | nickff wrote:
             | I've left out a lot of detail, because I was writing a
             | comment, not a treatise. I also left out how the Taliban
             | fighters routinely raped the widows and children of their
             | opponents, as well as the Taliban's horrific history of
             | brutality.
             | 
             | In addition to all of these atrocities, there are a number
             | of outliers, such as those you pointed out.
        
         | xh-dude wrote:
         | There is an argument that the 'stay and tolerate the corruption
         | for another generation' strategy would eventually outlast
         | native "Taliban" resistance - this is the path the U.S. was on,
         | fairly explicitly since 2010 or so. In a realist framing, this
         | is something that deserved more careful consideration before,
         | and also now, in the aftermath.
         | 
         | Look at the outcomes for Karzai and Ghani as an indicator - I
         | don't know that 'popular support' is something to attribute to
         | the Taliban but we ought to entertain the notion that the
         | framing of Afghanistan for domestic consumption in the U.S.
         | distorts a useful, realist analysis. How could we arrive at the
         | current state of things if, outside of Kabul, the dynamics were
         | as simple as painting a target on the Taliban?
        
       | jeswin wrote:
       | There was no way to defeat the Afghan Taliban without Pakistani
       | help. The ideological reservoir from which Taliban recruits is
       | bottomless; and with military and financial support from across
       | the border, quite formidable.
       | 
       | Over the last decade, the US had lost all leverage with Pakistan.
       | Pakistan is now fully allied with China.
        
         | 650REDHAIR wrote:
         | Don't forget Saudi Arabia funding madrassas in Pakistan for
         | decades.
        
         | cmurf wrote:
         | The Taliban could uave been defeated with the proper equivalent
         | extremist commitment: kill all life within 1 km of any Taliban.
         | No matter the country they are in. Tactical nukes.
         | 
         | An non-violent alternative, grant permanent U.S. residency to
         | all Afghan women and children. And evacuate anyone who wants
         | out.
         | 
         | Either would be cheaper, and involve less death and misery,
         | than what has transpired.
        
           | dragontamer wrote:
           | > An non-violent alternative, grant permanent U.S. residency
           | to all Afghan women and children. And evacuate anyone who
           | wants out.
           | 
           | Did you live in 2001?
           | 
           | There was severe distrust of "Al Qaeda cells", which were
           | these hypothetical terrorists inside of the USA pretending to
           | be a nice guy. But one phone call from Osama Bin Laden would
           | turn them into a suicide bomber.
           | 
           | -------
           | 
           | I'm glad that we've built up trust with the Afghan people and
           | are able to accept them into our society today. But that kind
           | of thinking you're talking about would have NOT worked in
           | 2001.
           | 
           | I think the Afghans have also learned to trust us to some
           | extent. My friend had to kill a child girl soldier who fired
           | upon him, hiding an AK47 in her Burka. It turns out that
           | burkas are really good at hiding weapons. I don't think I've
           | heard of any of those stories recently however.
           | 
           | ----------
           | 
           | The US won the hearts of Afghan women and children because we
           | built schools and universities for them. The trust did not
           | exist in 2001, but the trust exists today thanks to literally
           | millions of college-educated Afghan women telling our story
           | and learning our values.
        
             | mcguire wrote:
             | " _I 'm glad that we've built up trust with the Afghan
             | people and are able to accept them into our society
             | today._"
             | 
             | Do we? We didn't as of the Trump Administration.
             | 
             | https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2018/07/trump-
             | i...
             | 
             | https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/immigration/trump-admin-
             | bro...
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | Trump didn't, but Americans as a whole have an accepting
               | culture.
               | 
               | Over 75% of Republicans and 90% of Democrats wish to
               | accept more Afghan refugees in light of the Taliban
               | takeover. When push comes to shove, Americans
               | (Republicans included) are a welcoming bunch.
               | 
               | https://drive.google.com/file/d/1VJKdBglH8nPNslg4duYhtV1f
               | uTc...
               | 
               | Question #13, which has Republican / Democrat statistics
               | specific to that question on a later page. Something like
               | 79% of Trump voters think we should help those Afghans
               | come to the USA.
               | 
               | -----
               | 
               | Question #12, with 59% of respondents saying the US isn't
               | "doing enough" to help the Afghans, is even more
               | bipartisan, with Republican/Democrat splits being
               | negligible in the stats. (59% Democrats / 64% Republicans
               | think Biden is "not doing enough" to help the Afghan
               | people)
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | It is scary how easy some are about committing genocide when
           | it is abroad.
        
             | cmurf wrote:
             | The comment is not advocacy. Had all Taliban been murdered,
             | there would be no Taliban problem today. Instead the
             | dispute would be between the drug lords and the rest of the
             | civilian population.
        
               | content_sesh wrote:
               | Does your hot take genocide-based solution include
               | "tactical nuking" of Pakistan as well? Because the Afghan
               | Taliban gets plenty of support from them as well.
        
               | cmurf wrote:
               | U.S. foreign policy stated from the outset in 2001 that
               | we would follow terrorists where ever they are, no matter
               | the country. Hunt them down and kill them. That's what we
               | said about terrorists generally and Taliban specifically.
               | 
               | We departed from U.N. Charter article 51 twice, and also
               | disregarded the determination of Nuremberg. The nation is
               | complicit, Bush was reelected subsequent to his foreign
               | policy assertions and actions. There's been no serious
               | consideration to hold him or the U.S. accountable. That
               | makes it tacitly permitted.
               | 
               | Killing all Taliban would not be genocide. It would be
               | consistent with long standing U.S. foreign policy. It's a
               | religious sect, not a group of ethnic or nationals.
        
               | dragontamer wrote:
               | Various leadership positions of the Taliban have been
               | murdered by drones something like 5x or 6x over. The US
               | never had a problem with killing Taliban per se (or
               | imprisoning / exiling them).
               | 
               | A good chunk of upper-Taliban leadership were former
               | prisoners that were released, leading up to the peace
               | talks of last year. (Its better that we negotiate with
               | moderate Taliban we chose to release from prison, rather
               | than the extremists that come from self-recruitment)
               | 
               | The issue is that the Taliban can continue to recruit
               | more and more leaders from the locals. They're able to
               | recruit in large numbers because the Afghan culture
               | glorifies their resistance across the 1800s against Great
               | Britain (and other world powers with superior tech).
               | 
               | Their entire culture is optimized about fighting against
               | foreigners and rallying locals. The more we kill them,
               | the more they're able to recruit.
        
               | yourapostasy wrote:
               | _> Their entire culture is optimized about fighting
               | against foreigners and rallying locals. The more we kill
               | them, the more they 're able to recruit._
               | 
               | Afghanis stopped doing that for the period the Mongols
               | ruled via one demonstration of regional depopulation
               | through municipal-scale genocide [1]. But the Mongols
               | were like that: they were quite progressive and often ran
               | on a benevolent dictator model, but you cross them just
               | once and they salted the earth after they were done
               | wholesale killing everyone, innocents included.
               | 
               | But the Mongols' record in Afghanistan was likely only
               | possible because they established a reputation for
               | carrying out these genocides on various scales
               | (Khwarazmian Empire being a notably bloody example). I
               | suspect China comes closest in the current era to that
               | level of determination; fortunately for Afghanis, China
               | is not demonstrably interested in Afghanistan.
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invasions_of_Afghanista
               | n#Mongo...
               | 
               | [2] https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/The-myth-of-Chinese-
               | investme...
        
             | fleddr wrote:
             | It's equally scary how optics rule the conversation, not
             | outcomes.
             | 
             | Whilst killing all life within 1km of any Taliban is
             | ridiculous and absurd, the thought of a true extermination
             | strategy of the Taliban should be on the table. At the very
             | least as a thought.
             | 
             | The Sri Lankan government has managed to permanently wipe
             | out the Tamil Tiger movement by sheer effort, aggression
             | and indiscriminate military approach. Endlessly beating
             | down on them until they gave up, and dissolved their
             | movement, permanently. The human cost of the conflict has
             | been enormous, without question.
             | 
             | Has it been worth it, this permanent solution? I really
             | don't know, and I'm in absolutely no position to tell. The
             | only point I'm making is that total victory is possible,
             | yet at a high price.
             | 
             | China goes even further, it seems even the thought of
             | rebellion makes you end up in a re-education camp, and
             | sometimes not even that. Again, the human cost is enormous.
             | But does it work, if the sole aim is to suppress or wipe
             | out rebellion? Probably yes.
             | 
             | One could at least contemplate what would have happened if
             | the US had directly engaged with the Taliban, and use its
             | full military, diplomatic, intelligence and monetary might
             | to do so.
             | 
             | The West has higher morals, we like to tell ourselves.
             | Hence, an indirect approach. The outcome is 200K
             | casualties, and trillions spent. The grand "prize" of all
             | this suffering is the country firmly back in the hands of
             | the Taliban, under Sharia law. Afghanistan's tiny economy
             | tanking, hence every single citizen suffering. All women
             | rights reversed, back to being cattle.
             | 
             | A telling stat is that roughly 7K US soldiers died, yet
             | another 30K committed suicide back home. Due to the length
             | of the war and multiple exposures to traumatic experiences.
             | 
             | Altogether, I don't believe it is unreasonable to wonder if
             | the "good intentions" approach's outcome isn't just as
             | terrible or worse compared to an actual extermination
             | approach. I won't claim to know the answer, I'm merely
             | raising the question.
             | 
             | Admittedly, based on this article and given the backing of
             | neighboring countries, in this case there simply may not be
             | any winning approach at all. You can't defeat an enemy when
             | they keep switching camps.
        
               | gremloni wrote:
               | Is it even what we want? I think the taliban have some
               | good ideas about the role of feminism in society.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | I guess this forum turned into Twitter overnight,
               | unbelievable.
        
               | gremloni wrote:
               | It's probably a sign of the times. We're very polarized
               | and I feel very strongly about my opinions. I feel like
               | modern feminism is a cancer eating away at American
               | society. I'm very progressive about pretty much every
               | other "politicized" opinion, maybe besides guns.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | This took an odd turn.
               | 
               | I'm actually in agreement with you that modern feminism
               | is in many ways counter productive or even harmful.
               | 
               | That's still a far cry from what you said. Maybe it was
               | just deeply cynical, but I sure hope you don't support
               | the way the Taliban treats women.
        
               | content_sesh wrote:
               | Damn, this is the second guy in this thread "just asking
               | questions" about if genocide would have been a good
               | approach.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | What a ridiculous summary of my comment. I guess you must
               | get a thrill from framing a deeply complex matter into
               | such low life hot takes.
               | 
               | The very intent of the message is the reduction of
               | suffering, not the prolonging of it. The West has now
               | inflicted an enormous amount of suffering with absolutely
               | nothing to show for it but even more suffering.
               | 
               | This doesn't raise any questions to you? If not, then
               | that's exactly what I mean: managing optics, not
               | outcomes.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | > Whilst killing all life within 1km of any Taliban is
               | ridiculous and absurd, the thought of a true
               | extermination strategy of the Taliban should be on the
               | table. At the very least as a thought.
               | 
               | It is neither ridiculous nor absurd.
               | 
               | It plain simply involves killing almost everyone in an
               | area. Which is called genocide. It is doable. Nazi done
               | it. Khmer Rouge done it. Hutu in Rwanda done it.
               | 
               | You want to frame it as attacking Taliban, which is not
               | true. Majority of victims would not be Taliban. It would
               | be quite literally going to Afghan to commit genocide in
               | half of it.
               | 
               | > The grand "prize" of all this suffering is the country
               | firmly back in the hands of the Taliban, under Sharia
               | law.
               | 
               | Anyone including women have better chance under Sharia
               | law then they have under your proposal. Cause your
               | proposal is to plain kill them. You don't get to propose
               | killing people and then saying someone else is cruel.
               | 
               | > Altogether, I don't believe it is unreasonable to
               | wonder if the "good intentions" approach's outcome isn't
               | just as terrible or worse compared to an actual
               | extermination approach
               | 
               | Under Taliban, those people are alive. With your
               | approach, they are all dead. So, they are better off now.
               | I don't think few terrorism victims in USA is good enough
               | excuse for that.
               | 
               | > One could at least contemplate what would have happened
               | if the US had directly engaged with the Taliban, and use
               | its full military, diplomatic, intelligence and monetary
               | might to do so.
               | 
               | They did and lost.
        
               | sadfkhjasdf wrote:
               | A better solution would be to use small drone swarms and
               | create a surveillance state in the rural areas. Each
               | drone can see about 100m2 at 100m height. So 10K drones
               | for 1 km2 = 10 million dollars.
               | 
               | Attach weapons and you have zero risk of life and can
               | maintain a permanent presence, that can essentially be
               | automated by AI and computer vision.
               | 
               | And I've only spent 0.01% of the yearly spend on the war.
               | 
               | This is clearly the future of warfare.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | Did people all of a sudden lose the ability to read, or
               | what?
               | 
               | "It plain simply involves killing almost everyone in an
               | area."
               | 
               | No, not almost everyone. Only Taliban. Which arguably is
               | complex, but surely if the US would make full effort to
               | infiltrate and map the network, such selective targeting
               | would be possible.
               | 
               | "Cause your proposal is to plain kill them. You don't get
               | to propose killing people and then saying someone else is
               | cruel."
               | 
               | It gets even weirder, I guess. You know the very point of
               | the Afghan military was to kill the Taliban, right?
               | Together with the US backing them up, they managed to
               | kill 52,000 Taliban and other opposition fighters. What
               | exactly do you think happens in a war?
               | 
               | "Under Taliban, those people are alive. With your
               | approach, they are all dead."
               | 
               | All? The Taliban is estimated to have a force some 50,000
               | strong, 100,000 tops if you include weak allies. That's
               | 0.13% of the total population. So you're saying that the
               | selective targeting of the Taliban, will also wipe out
               | the other 99.87% of the population? Some 38 million
               | people? Get the fuck out of here.
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | Killing all life within 1km of any Taliban literally
               | involves killing all people there. And it is not even
               | Taliban hiding among civilians. It is them living with
               | their parents in their village.
               | 
               | > Together with the US backing them up, they managed to
               | kill 52,000 Taliban and other opposition fighters. What
               | exactly do you think happens in a war?
               | 
               | Not every war is going on with goal of killing everyone
               | in an area. So while civilians always die, what you
               | propose has that extra step of being genocide.
               | 
               | > The Taliban is estimated to have a force some 50,000
               | strong, 100,000 tops if you include weak allies. That's
               | 0.13% of the total population.
               | 
               | Yes, because your plan is to not just kill them, but to
               | kill everyone around.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | Are you drunk?
               | 
               | I did not make the "killing all life" remark, it's by
               | another commenter. I specifically said to target an
               | exterminate the Taliban.
               | 
               | "Not every war is going on with goal of killing everyone
               | in an area. So while civilians always die, what you
               | propose has that extra step of being genocide."
               | 
               | No that is the exact opposite of what I propose!
               | 
               | "Yes, because your plan is to not just kill them, but to
               | kill everyone around."
               | 
               | What!?
        
               | watwut wrote:
               | So why are you then joining this thread? Keep discussion
               | in the context.
               | 
               | Anyway, army claimed they killed taliban like 10 years
               | ago or so and here we are.
        
               | fleddr wrote:
               | You should be the last person on the planet to even use
               | the word context.
        
           | tinza123 wrote:
           | Your idea is the most Taliban idea I've heard.
        
           | gremloni wrote:
           | Your solution is worse than the problem.
        
       | mcguire wrote:
       | " _Only the civilians seemed to lose._ "
       | 
       | Yeah.
       | 
       | Something to keep in mind with everyone repeating the old
       | "Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires" dismissal.
        
       | YinglingLight wrote:
       | Trump made a Peace deal with the Taliban, which involved
       | releasing Baradar, whose currently in charge of the takeover.
       | 
       | People need to understand the importance of the Border Wall.
       | Between Afghanistan and Pakistan. It stops terrorists from
       | ducking in and out of the country at will. It stops the drugs. It
       | stops systemic child abuse/trafficking. The Afghanis are one of
       | the most abused groups of people in Human History.
        
       | ripe wrote:
       | The consistent problem with most comments about the conflict in
       | Afghanistan is they fail to fully account for the role of the
       | Pakistan Army and ISI in all of this. They are the most important
       | element in the conflict, not the Afghans, not us and not the
       | Taliban. If they weren't involved and the conflict were limited
       | to Afghanistan and Afghans things like what Mr. Filkins describes
       | would hold sway and accommodations and arrangements might be
       | made. But that won't happen because the Pak Army/ISI won't let
       | it. They have a mad idea of requiring Afghanistan for strategic
       | depth ('After the Indians beat us we can fall back on the tank
       | factories of Kabul and regroup.') and they require a compliant
       | regime running the country. So they make it happen. As plucky as
       | the Afghans can be, Afghanistan can't handle Pakistan, especially
       | a Pakistan that is a conduit for Gulf Arab money being sent to
       | buy the donors a place in heaven.
       | 
       | Handling the Pak Army/ISI was our job and we didn't do it. We
       | never really even tried to do it. If we had kept the Paks out and
       | the conflict was contained within Afghanistan, the Afghans could
       | have handled what would have been left of the Taliban through
       | means such as those described by Mr. Filkins. But we didn't. We
       | got had by Pakistan and tales of the Raj and their special
       | knowledge. We gave them money even, lots of it to kill us and
       | Afghans.
       | 
       | We did get something for this though. Hundreds of high ranking
       | officers got their tickets punched. The spec ops community got
       | their budgets and fanfare. Multitudes of State Dept. people got
       | hazard pay and career points. Contracting companies and
       | contractors galore got lots and lots of money over lots and lots
       | of years. Several thousand of our guys died but they were mostly
       | deplorable NASCAR fans and don't much count. Now the party is
       | over and the Afghans get to pay the final bill.
       | 
       | Nice going Americans! This is the second time in my life where
       | we've bugged out on people who trusted us when we told them we
       | wouldn't bug out on them.
       | 
       | (The above comment was made by someone on the original article,
       | but I think it's 100% accurate.)
        
         | ngcc_hk wrote:
         | Foreign power is foreign. The affairs is internal. Ultimately
         | it has to be decided for people on the ground. Unless you
         | colonise it replacing the beings to be yours as one country did
         | and do, I suspect even Pak or whoever will fail.
        
       | g8oz wrote:
       | "It was in the waning days of November 2001 that Taliban leaders
       | began to reach out to Hamid Karzai, who would soon become the
       | interim president of Afghanistan: They wanted to make a deal.
       | 
       | "The Taliban were completely defeated, they had no demands,
       | except amnesty," recalled Barnett Rubin, who worked with the
       | United Nations' political team in Afghanistan at the time.
       | 
       | Messengers shuttled back and forth between Mr. Karzai and the
       | headquarters of the Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar, in
       | Kandahar. Mr. Karzai envisioned a Taliban surrender that would
       | keep the militants from playing any significant role in the
       | country's future.
       | 
       | But Washington, confident that the Taliban would be wiped out
       | forever, was in no mood for a deal.
       | 
       | "The United States is not inclined to negotiate surrenders,"
       | Secretary of Defense Donald H. Rumsfeld said in a news conference
       | at the time, adding that the Americans had no interest in leaving
       | Mullah Omar to live out his days anywhere in Afghanistan. The
       | United States wanted him captured or dead."
       | 
       | -- Did the War in Afghanistan Have to Happen?
       | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/world/middleeast/afghanis...
        
         | eschulz wrote:
         | To play Devil's Advocate, didn't the US have to label the
         | Taliban as terrorists at that time? I think given their
         | association with Bin Laden, and the 9/11 attacks, most people
         | in the US considered the Taliban to be terrorists, and it would
         | have completely destroyed the credibility of the Pentagon or
         | Bush administration to be negotiating with them a mere 60 days
         | after 9/11.
        
           | boomboomsubban wrote:
           | The first ~thirty days after 9/11 were full of negotiations
           | with the Taliban as they weren't terrorists but harboring
           | terrorists. Even after the invasion, they could have labeled
           | it as the Taliban agreeing to help bring Bin Laden to justice
           | and they would have been able to save face.
           | 
           | Hell, it might have helped prevent Bin Laden's flight into
           | Pakistan, and have been a tremendous PR victory.
        
             | eschulz wrote:
             | You make a good point, but it leaves the Taliban of late
             | 2001 with a very narrow path to successfully complete
             | negotiations: give up Bin Laden in cooperation with the US
             | and then hope the ramifications from Bin Laden's people are
             | minimal and the US is satisfied to then leave you alone.
             | Might have worked, but they succeeded in the waiting game.
             | 
             | "Everything comes in time to him who knows how to wait.
             | There is nothing stronger than those two: patience and
             | time, they will do it all." - Tolstoy, War and Peace
        
         | foogazi wrote:
         | > Mr. Karzai envisioned a Taliban surrender
         | 
         | Seeing what the Taliban were able to do after being "completely
         | defeated" makes me wonder if Karzai's vision was realistic at
         | all
        
           | danans wrote:
           | Being a movement in stark opposition to the current authority
           | can be a powerful rallying force. Resentments are
           | tremendously motivating. We see plenty of recent examples of
           | that in the US itself.
           | 
           | Therefore it's not so surprising that the Taliban regained a
           | lot of popular support, especially given the oft mentioned
           | corruption of the prior government.
           | 
           | Of course now the boot is on the other foot, and the Taliban
           | must provide the security and economic guarantees of a civil
           | society, and the jury is out on both their willingness and
           | ability to do so.
           | 
           | If they fail because they are too fixated on waging a
           | puritanical religious war both within and without
           | Afghanistan, financed by wealthy outside countries with their
           | own agendas, they will be overthrown again, either from
           | within, or from outside.
        
             | watwut wrote:
             | > If they fail because they are too fixated on waging a
             | puritanical religious war both within and without
             | Afghanistan, financed by wealthy outside countries with
             | their own agendas, they will be overthrown again, either
             | from within, or from outside.
             | 
             | Violent oppressive dictatorships can last very long tho.
        
               | danans wrote:
               | Even still, those authoritarian governments have to serve
               | the needs of a large subset of the population, often
               | biased on ethnicity, and have an overwhelming monopoly of
               | force. Neither of those is likely in Afghanistan.
               | 
               | The Taliban themselves are motivated by the rather modern
               | goal of uniting the country's fractious and diverse
               | ethnic landscape ... albeit under the banner of their
               | extreme interpretation of Islam.
        
       | TechBro8615 wrote:
       | For a (much longer) exploration of this idea, I recommend reading
       | the book _The Seventh Sense: Power, Fortune, and Survival in the
       | Age of Networks_ [0] by Joshua Cooper Ramo.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0196KYTA6
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | mariodiana wrote:
       | My understanding is that medieval warfare, among the noble class,
       | had similarities to this: specifically, nobles didn't necessarily
       | fight to the death. Capture and ransom was a big thing. The term
       | "parole" comes from the idea of _giving one 's word,_ after
       | capture, that you would not return to fighting if you were
       | released. The nobles of Europe, too, had an extended network of
       | kin, some of whom might be on the "other side."
       | 
       | I don't recall learning about switching sides with fluidity (as
       | in Afghanistan), but I do recall learning that this little game
       | got broken up once the common people were enlisted.
        
         | pradn wrote:
         | War rules are fascinating. They play a large role in the
         | Mahabharata, which has an incredibly long battle sequence at
         | the end, where the events of each day are detailed minutely.
         | Part of the moral complexity of the epic comes from both sides
         | breaking the rules, all of which are broken at some point and
         | lead to pivotal shifts in the battle. These rule violations
         | muddy the moral waters: what's usually seen as a "good
         | guy"/"bad guy" story turns into a vicious tale of deception,
         | violence, and senseless death. This martial epic contains
         | within it both the call to duty, and, therefore, violence, but
         | also a searing critique of where it leads to.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dharma-yuddha#In_the_Mahabhara...
        
           | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
           | That sounds fascinating and it reminds me I haven't read the
           | Mahabharata (then again I have quite a bit of backlog going
           | all the way back to the epic of Gilgamesh...)
           | 
           | Is there a good English translation? Or a French one maybe?
        
       | sadfkhjasdf wrote:
       | > After the fall of Kabul to the Taliban on September 27, 1996,
       | Ahmad Shah Massoud and Abdul Rashid Dostum, two former enemies,
       | created the United Front (Northern Alliance) against the Taliban,
       | who were preparing offensives against the remaining areas under
       | the control of Massoud and Dostum.
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_Afghanistan
       | 
       | Amazing how it's almost an exact repeat of 25 years ago.
        
       | amriksohata wrote:
       | The US image as the "brave" superpower has been heavily exposed.
       | The US despite having the latest tech hardware and all these
       | images of muscle pumped up soldiers in Hollywood movies were seen
       | as fleeing the battlefield. It took the US 20 years to push
       | Taliban to outer cities and the Taliban took 20 days to come
       | back. It shows for me, the US is not a superpower when it comes
       | to warfare, as we saw in Vietnam too. They are good when it comes
       | to aerial combat where they do not engage on ground level but
       | they are not trained or built for guerrilla warfare which many
       | Asian countries employ. They would lost in most terrains like
       | this.
        
       | pphysch wrote:
       | "Our failure to understand [the Taliban's] dynamic has had
       | consequences."
       | 
       | There was no "failure to understand". This narrative that
       | Afghanistan was a well-intentioned strategic/tactical failure is
       | utterly misleading. The dynamic reality was very clear to every
       | one involved (who cared to know), from servicepeople to 4-star
       | generals, but the military's culture of careerism and corruption
       | prevented these truths from being publicly acknowledged [1].
       | 
       | [1] - https://youtu.be/_bo7P_podIk
        
         | seagullz wrote:
         | That is indeed an eye opening discussion, goes beyond the
         | soundbites and much of the charade.
        
         | guerrilla wrote:
         | Please summarize your opinion of the dynamic instead of making
         | us watch an hour long video that we don't even know we want to
         | watch to find out.
        
           | pphysch wrote:
           | I strongly recommend you listen to the two veterans describe
           | the dynamic (try 1.5x speed). It is worth more than a 1000
           | hours of the bloviating punditry that crowds the airwaves
           | right now.
           | 
           | The gist:
           | 
           | * On the ground: "rebuilding Afghanistan" was a total farce.
           | Major Sjursen (Ret.) describes handing out bags of money to
           | "local contractors" with virtually no oversight. He suspects
           | that the Taliban were among the "contractors" and were
           | benefiting immensely from the inept American policy.
           | 
           | * The US military/political leadership is entirely motivated
           | by optics and self-interest. Virtually every report had to
           | have a positive outlook; publicly recognizing the reality on
           | the ground was forbidden, including using words like
           | "insurgency".
        
       | dirtyid wrote:
       | One statistic I think gets overlooked is the Afghan population
       | almost doubled from 20M to 38M in the last 20 years. The massive
       | young demographics growing up under occupation was going to come
       | home to roost sooner or later. There's also the geographic
       | reality that Afghanistan is a land locked country and US tenuous
       | access via Pakisan or the even more perilous northern routes
       | meant taming Afganistan was always going to be a long term losing
       | proposition.
        
       | res0nat0r wrote:
       | Note: Afghani is the currency, Afghans are the people.
        
       | tlogan wrote:
       | British had a saying: you can rent an Afghan but you can't buy
       | one
       | 
       | I heard the above saying during Soviet invasion but I cannot find
       | the origin.
        
       | wombatmobile wrote:
       | The other war that comes to mind that doesn't fit the standard
       | model of black hat vs white hat is the Vietnam war. It was
       | impossible to defeat the Viet Cong because they blended in with
       | the citizenry. And so, despite superior technology and enormous
       | wealth, America and its allies were unable to prevail in Vietnam.
       | 
       | And yet, today, the socialist republic of Vietnam is hardly a
       | pariah, or a communist menace, or a backwater or a threat to
       | anyone. It is a rapidly developing economic power in South East
       | Asia, with a dispersed diaspora that has integrated well with
       | diverse cultures in Europe, North America, Australia and South
       | America.
       | 
       | Have you ever heard of a Vietnamese terrorist shooting up or
       | bombing a public place in the west over the last 40 years?
       | 
       | What does that tell you about the paradigm of us vs them?
        
         | gotoeleven wrote:
         | That the Vietnamese don't follow a religion which they
         | interpret as mandating the conversion or death of all non
         | believers?
         | 
         | The Taliban have moral clarity and that's a huge advantage
         | against the relativist post-modern muddle brained thinking that
         | characterizes most of western leadership these days.
        
           | captain_price7 wrote:
           | I think the entire point of the article was that Taliban
           | doesn't really care about rigid ideology, it's their
           | flexibility that has won them the war.
        
           | watwut wrote:
           | Suprising amounts of conservative westerners seem to admire
           | taliban.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | _And yet, today, the socialist republic of Vietnam is hardly a
         | pariah, or a communist menace, or a backwater or a threat to
         | anyone._
         | 
         | If it turns out that Afghanistan has substantial mineral
         | resources, as some claim, that could happen to Afghanistan.
         | With substantial help from China.
         | 
         | Perhaps China will build a road and rail link to Afghanistan.
         | There's a narrow corridor that connects the two nations. No
         | roads. No rail. Mountains. But it's a shortcut for the Belt and
         | Road Initiative, so it might happen.
        
           | drocer88 wrote:
           | The East Turkistan nation disputes China's ownership of this
           | area.
        
       | pradn wrote:
       | Battles have rarely been massive charges from two sides of a flat
       | battlefield, as we see in war movies. Historically, it's been
       | really hard to get soldiers to charge to their deaths, which
       | makes sense if you think for a second. Most armies throughout
       | history were nonprofessionals levied by their lords or seasonal
       | opportunists, who fought for extra income. Sometimes, the leaders
       | would get the soldiers drunk before they went in, and they'd
       | retreat and have to be coaxed into running in again.
       | 
       | Aside from all this, contrary to some sort of received chivalric
       | ideal of loyalty and fighting-unto-death, a great number of
       | military engagements in every part of the world were decided by
       | bribery and deception. People don't want to risk their lives and
       | are often tempted by monetary gain. Countless forts have fallen
       | to people opening the doors from within. There's instances of
       | Sufi leaders being admitted into forts only to open the gates.
       | Hyderabad was conquered by Aurangazeb in great part due to
       | bribery, too.
       | 
       | The calculus changes dramatically if the attacker has a history
       | of lenient behavior toward those who surrender, versus massacre
       | for those who do not. The Mughals regularly incorporated
       | surrendering lords into their feudal system, with honors, income,
       | and opportunities for social advancement. The Mongols razed the
       | Khwarezmia because of their disastrous refusal of their envoys.
        
         | acjohnson55 wrote:
         | It's one of the things that made the First Crusade so
         | remarkable. Once the Crusaders were in way over their heads, it
         | paradoxically made them far more committed than the warlords
         | they were fighting against. The invaders were nowhere near
         | hospitable lands, fighting for their lives.
        
           | crazy_horse wrote:
           | It helps when you have guys that are so convinced that they
           | have found the lance that pierced the side of Christ that
           | they are willing to walk through fire to prove it.
        
           | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
           | Sorry to nitpick, but I wouldn't call the caliphs, sultans,
           | emirs and kings of the muslim world of the 1090's "warlords".
           | Even the Seljuks had essentially ceased being nomads by that
           | time and had settled down.
        
         | YeGoblynQueenne wrote:
         | >> Battles have rarely been massive charges from two sides of a
         | flat battlefield, as we see in war movies. Historically, it's
         | been really hard to get soldiers to charge to their deaths,
         | which makes sense if you think for a second. Most armies
         | throughout history were nonprofessionals levied by their lords
         | or seasonal opportunists, who fought for extra income.
         | Sometimes, the leaders would get the soldiers drunk before they
         | went in, and they'd retreat and have to be coaxed into running
         | in again.
         | 
         | In some historical periods that was true. In others, not so
         | much. The Zulu at Isandlwana were seasonal warrior-farmers, but
         | they sure charged the British lines with their goat's hide
         | shields and short, thrusting spears, and massacred the British
         | despite the latters' technological superiority. Alexander's
         | army comprised regular professional soldiers and they sure
         | marched in a phalanx (the phalanx didn't quite charge as it was
         | too slow moving to do so) and Alexander himself of course
         | charged at the head of his Hetairoi. The armies of medieval
         | feudal lords were in their majority levies, as you say, but the
         | Crusaders, in the same time period, were for the most part
         | elite knights who fought with unending courage (and commited
         | incredible atrocities) against enemies many times their
         | numbers. And so it goes.
         | 
         | As to bribery, sure, many battles were fought with money or
         | politics rather than swords. Yet again others were not. Think
         | of WWI for example, or WWII. No chivalric ideals there, but the
         | battles were bloody and the corpses piled on high.
         | 
         | Btw, thanks for reminding me to read about the Khwarazmians.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | The Napoleonic wars were full of massive charges, and long
         | violent sieges against fortresses. Armies figured out how to
         | instill enough discipline into soldiers to march straight into
         | enemy fire. Casualties in the front ranks of the French army at
         | Waterloo were horrific, yet they still kept attacking all day
         | long.
         | 
         | "A soldier will fight long and hard for a bit of colored
         | ribbon."
         | 
         | -Napoleon Bonaparte
        
           | AniseAbyss wrote:
           | You get a lot of globalist shills here but the reality is
           | that nationalism is a powerful force.
           | 
           | You can see that in Afghanistan: the Dutch embassy staff
           | waved goodbye to the plebeians down on the Kabul airport when
           | their military flight took off. Being a citizen of a country
           | matters and it is worth fighting for.
        
           | pradn wrote:
           | Exactly, this is my point. Napoleon's professional standing
           | armies are a relatively recent (~200 years) and exceptional
           | compared to the historical norm. Even Napoleon was able to
           | take lots of territory by just negotiating with actors who
           | knew they had no chance. People don't want to just go die;
           | this requires a large amount of training. Not wanting to kill
           | someone is something like a universal.
        
           | simonsarris wrote:
           | Minor but annoying: Napoleon didn't say that and didn't mean
           | it like that. When introducing the Legion d'Honneur (open to
           | civilians too), the first introduction of an honor since the
           | French Revolution, some on the left complained that this
           | reintroduction violated the revolutionary concept of social
           | equality. In 1802 when discussing the creation of it,
           | Theophile Berlier sneered at the concept as merely baubles,
           | and Napoleon replied:
           | 
           | "You tell me that class distinctions are baubles used by
           | monarchs, I defy you to show me a republic, ancient or
           | modern, in which distinctions have not existed. You call
           | these medals and ribbons baubles; well, it is with such
           | baubles that men are led.
           | 
           | I would not say this in public, but in a assembly of wise
           | statesmen it should be said. I don't think that the French
           | love liberty and equality: the French are not changed by ten
           | years of revolution: they are what the Gauls were, fierce and
           | fickle. They have one feeling: honour. We must nourish that
           | feeling. The people clamour for distinction. See how the
           | crowd is awed by the medals and orders worn by foreign
           | diplomats. We must recreate these distinctions. There has
           | been too much tearing down; we must rebuild. A government
           | exists, yes and power, but the nation itself - what is it?
           | Scattered grains of sand."
           | 
           | He went on that in order to ameliorate that sand, "We must
           | plant a few masses of granite as anchors in the soil of
           | France."
           | 
           | His phrase "it is with such baubles that men are led" (and
           | your paraphrase) are often quoted out of context as something
           | cynical, but Napoleon was actually commending these things as
           | the physical manifestations of honor. If he's cynical about
           | something, it's the liberty and equality bits.
        
           | MichaelGroves wrote:
           | Wellington used to say that the presence of Napoleon on a
           | battlefield was worth forty thousand men. Partly due to
           | Napoleon's tactical skill I'm sure, but I think this also
           | speaks to Napoleon's unusual ability to motivate men. They
           | didn't want to disappoint Napoleon so they were more willing
           | to throw their own lives away. I think the defection of the
           | Fifth Infantry Regiment at Grenoble probably corroborates
           | this. There, they had the opportunity to shoot Napoleon dead
           | and slaughter his rag tag forces but instead they chose to
           | join him.
        
             | crazy_horse wrote:
             | It speaks to the power of belief in something. Napoleon
             | represented something bigger than a person, he was French
             | nationalism.
             | 
             | I think a similar story (this is in Ken Burn's doc, told by
             | Shelby Foote) is when the Union forces at Fredericksburg
             | took the city and then sent wave after wave of soldiers at
             | the Confederate held hills with a wall at the base of them.
             | I don't recall how many waves it was (10+), but it's
             | difficult to imagine being in the sixth or seventh wave,
             | watch man after man before you walk into a "wall of lead"
             | and decide to do it anyway.
             | 
             | How many people today have that kind of conviction? We
             | can't get people to wear masks.
        
               | fladrif wrote:
               | Oh but interestingly isn't that a kind of conviction
               | itself? They've been fed some kind of idea of 'freedom'
               | that they now strongly adhere to until death (I assume a
               | lot of anti-mask are also anti-vaccine and are now the
               | ones dying in the hospitals).
               | 
               | If you look at American politics over the past 5 years,
               | trump has almost become another napoleon in how fervent
               | the support he has, and how the idea of 'freedom' has
               | held.
        
               | glofish wrote:
               | Excellent point, arguably NOT wearing a mask takes a lot
               | more conviction than wearing it.
               | 
               | if you believe wearing a mask benefits you then there is
               | no need for "conviction", it is just a belief and the
               | person is trying to maximize their own benefit
        
               | ngcc_hk wrote:
               | Or others. Especially the heavy load to hosiptal system
               | if one get sicks. There are two forces in live - self
               | preservation and passion for others. Left and right
               | coexist in one. That is the fundamental issue in life.
        
       | rags2riches wrote:
       | One thing has visibly changed with the US occupation. Before, the
       | typical Afghan fighter carried a Kalasjnikov. Now they will be
       | carrying an M16.
        
       | kenty wrote:
       | After US withdrawal the Taliban probably had a massive financial
       | advantage. They probably used the last years to save up billions
       | which they used to buy them a "critical mass" of fighters that
       | would steamroll the country with no chance of resistance.
       | 
       | Even when factoring out corruption, the government's ability to
       | muster up funds for keeping it's own military is severely
       | hindered by them having to upkeep basic services throughout the
       | country and having to go through the usual government
       | bureaucracy.
       | 
       | Now the tables have turned somewhat and being faced with the cost
       | of occupying the country, the Taliban will have trouble keeping
       | their freckle allies.
        
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