[HN Gopher] Machine learning's crumbling foundations
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Machine learning's crumbling foundations
        
       Author : Anon84
       Score  : 154 points
       Date   : 2021-08-22 16:43 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (pluralistic.net)
 (TXT) w3m dump (pluralistic.net)
        
       | unbroken wrote:
       | There's a nice substack I found that is precisely about this
       | problem and wider variations of it, that is, the problem of
       | figuring out numbers that actually tell you something about the
       | universe:
       | 
       | https://desystemize.substack.com
        
       | 6gvONxR4sf7o wrote:
       | > One common failure mode? Treating data that was known to be of
       | poor quality as if it was reliable because good data was not
       | available... they also use the poor quality data to assess the
       | resulting models.
       | 
       | This drives me nuts. Spend $10k getting high quality data and
       | throw a simple model at it? Nah, let's spend a month of time from
       | someone making $400k/yr for less trustworthy results. And on the
       | blogosphere it's even worse. 'This is the best data available so
       | here goes' justifies so much worse-than-worthless BS.
       | 
       | And don't even get me started on the 'better than human'
       | headlines that result.
        
         | zmmmmm wrote:
         | I feel like its even worse than just resorting to bad data when
         | good data isn't available: the field of deep learning has
         | cultivated the perception that it's robust to bad data as one
         | of its hallmarks.
         | 
         | That is, you can pump relatively raw data into it and it will
         | self-select features and then self-regulate their use so
         | therefore most of the initial steps of data cleaning, feature
         | selection etc are not necessary, or require less expertise.
         | This is now spilling over into general ML so that when quacks
         | assert that their model just magically overcomes these things
         | and people actually believe it.
        
           | nerdponx wrote:
           | The irony is that there _are_ techniques for dealing with
           | noisy /mislabeled/bad data (e.g. gold loss correction [0],
           | errors-in-variables models [1]), but that stuff isn't "sexy"
           | and not enough practitioners know about it.
           | 
           | 0: https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.05300
           | 
           | 1: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Errors-in-variables_models
        
       | howmayiannoyyou wrote:
       | Really depends on the domain and the engine. OpenAI code
       | generation is staggering
       | (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SGUCcjHTmGY&t=1214s), its
       | summarization and classification is still very much a work in
       | progress.
        
         | safog wrote:
         | I agree with this - when there's an economic incentive to get
         | clean data, you get clean data.
         | 
         | For instance, there's a lot of manual clean up work put into
         | things like training data sets for speech recognition because
         | there has been a lot of investment there. Same with self
         | driving I assume because so much $$$ got invested there.
         | 
         | Radiology scans or cough based COVID detectors or medical
         | claims on the other hand? I wouldn't expect it. It's just
         | researchers trying to get a quick paper without adequate
         | funding.
        
         | Orou wrote:
         | Most ML requires collecting, cleaning, and transforming
         | datasets into something that a model can train on for a
         | specific domain. Codex and Copilot aren't good examples of this
         | because they are training on terabytes of public code repos -
         | meaning that there is no code cleaning step. It's relying on
         | the sheer volume of data that is being processed to try and
         | filter the 'unclean' data (think buggy code written by a human)
         | out of the model.
         | 
         | These are really the exception rather than the rule when it
         | comes to collecting data for ML/AI applications.
        
       | thaumasiotes wrote:
       | > The disdain for the qualitative expertise of domain experts who
       | produce data is a well-understood guilty secret within ML
       | circles, embodied in Frederick Jelinek's ironic talk, "Every time
       | I fire a linguist, the performance of the speech recognizer goes
       | up."
       | 
       | This reminds me of how the chimp sign language studies got much
       | better results from hearing evaluators than from deaf ones.
        
         | pjscott wrote:
         | Doctorow seems to be missing the meaning of that quote (which
         | is also not the title of a talk, ironic or otherwise). It was
         | specifically a comment on the usefulness of computer language
         | models created manually based on linguistic theories of grammar
         | versus ones in the same model family created automatically from
         | real-world data -- the latter tended to work better. These days
         | I usually hear it quoted more broadly as a warning about the
         | danger of encoding too much possibly-wrong domain knowledge in
         | an ML system when a more generic model and the training data
         | are sufficient to learn the useful parts on their own.
         | 
         | Neither of those translates into disdain for _qualitative
         | understanding of the underlying reality_ behind the data set,
         | which is one of those things that everyone knows is important.
         | The problem is that such understanding is actually hard, and
         | easy to mess up even when you 're trying.
        
       | taeric wrote:
       | This hits so many of the greatest hits for how to speak to
       | emotion and play on existing feelings more than following the
       | data.
       | 
       | Starts off with an appeal to so called technical debt. A nebulous
       | concept that more plays on debt being bad then it shows anything
       | to actually do.
       | 
       | It then moves to comparing to other engineering, with the
       | implicit idea that they have it together in ways that we don't.
       | 
       | Oh, and I skipped the part of statistical abuse. Because, what?
       | Turns out special cases abound in data driven efforts. Instead of
       | looking for ways out, we are looking to blame those that tried?
       | That... Doesn't seem productive.
       | 
       | I also don't buy some of the argument. Focusing on voter purging
       | as if that is a data science problem seems willfully ignorant.
       | That is a blatant power grab that is just hiding behind data
       | jargon.
        
       | FridayoLeary wrote:
       | This can explain why pollsters get things wrong so often.
        
       | blululu wrote:
       | This seems like a re-hashing of Michael Jordan's essay on the
       | subject: https://medium.com/@mijordan3/artificial-intelligence-
       | the-re...
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Discussed here:
         | 
         |  _Artificial Intelligence - The Revolution Hasn't Happened Yet
         | (2018)_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25530178 - Dec
         | 2020 (120 comments)
         | 
         |  _The AI Revolution Hasn't Happened Yet_ -
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=16873778 - April 2018 (161
         | comments)
        
       | thaumasiotes wrote:
       | > Ethnic groups whose surnames were assigned in recent history
       | for tax-collection purposes (Ashkenazi Jews, Han Chinese,
       | Koreans, etc) have a relatively small pool of surnames and a
       | slightly larger pool of first names.
       | 
       | This is... not accurate. The reason the Chinese have a small pool
       | of surnames is that their surnames are much _less_ recent than
       | ours, not _more_ recent.
       | 
       | And I don't think the Ashkenazi surnames are particularly more
       | recent than the surnames of the Europeans they lived among.
       | Rather, they have concentrated surnames mostly because they were
       | occupationally concentrated.
        
         | simonw wrote:
         | https://www.familysearch.org/wiki/en/Jewish_Personal_Names has
         | more information about compulsory adoption of surnames amongst
         | European Jews for taxation purposes in the 18th century.
        
           | taeric wrote:
           | I think the assertion was more that that is when everyone was
           | forced to take surnames?
        
             | thaumasiotes wrote:
             | From https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Surname#History :
             | 
             | > By 1400, most English and some Scottish people used
             | surnames, but many Scottish and Welsh people did not adopt
             | surnames until the 17th century, or later.
             | 
             | > During the modern era, many cultures around the world
             | adopted family names, particularly for administrative
             | reasons, especially during the age of European expansion
             | and particularly since 1600. Notable examples include the
             | Netherlands (1795-1811), Japan (1870s), Thailand (1920),
             | and Turkey (1934).
             | 
             | So that would put Ashkenazic surnames at healthily older
             | than e.g. Dutch surnames.
        
         | ProjectArcturis wrote:
         | Also, the purpose of Republican voter purges is not,
         | particularly, to find people who have double-registered. It is
         | more useful to the GOP to have a ton of false positives. Having
         | a huge headline number allows them to claim that voter fraud is
         | rampant ("Over a million people double registered!!!"). It also
         | allows them to challenge the registration of many voters that
         | the GOP doesn't like. Whether they've actually succeeded or not
         | in finding double registration, these challenges raise the bar
         | of voting difficulty for the other side.
        
         | ilamont wrote:
         | Yeah, that was an odd claim about Han Chinese surnames. Many
         | have been around for thousands of years (https://www.chinadaily
         | .com.cn/ezine/2007-07/20/content_54412...) and almost all are
         | single-character surnames based on a limited set of possible
         | sounds (~400 in Mandarin, IIRC)
        
           | thaumasiotes wrote:
           | There are still double-character surnames, though not as many
           | as there used to be.
           | 
           | That's evolution for you. Some surnames are big winners, some
           | go extinct.
           | 
           | (It's also worth noting that Chinese surnames are highly
           | concentrated in a sampling sense -- there are just a few
           | surnames which cover large chunks of the population -- but if
           | you made a list of names, as opposed to a list of people, the
           | pool of names would look much larger.)
        
           | mcswell wrote:
           | I don't know anything about Chinese surnames, but their
           | paucity cannot be due to a limited set of possible sounds.
           | First, I would interpret "sounds" as phonemes (including
           | tones), and there are far fewer of those than 400. More
           | likely what you mean is the number of combinations of
           | phonemes into valid Chinese Mandarin monosyllables, of which
           | I cannot imagine there being only 400. In any case, there are
           | (from what little I've heard) lots of bisyllabic Chinese
           | words. Can't they be represented by single (or double)
           | characters? There are thousands of commonly used Chinese
           | characters, and tens of thousands more uncommonly used
           | characters.
        
             | thaumasiotes wrote:
             | > More likely what you mean is the number of combinations
             | of phonemes into valid Chinese Mandarin monosyllables, of
             | which I cannot imagine there being only 400.
             | 
             | That's your problem, not ilamont's. The limited syllable
             | inventory of Mandarin Chinese is very well known. No need
             | to stretch your imagination over it.
             | 
             | That said, surnames are not limited by the number of
             | syllables for the obvious reason that the spelling is part
             | of the surname.
        
             | kccqzy wrote:
             | You are getting something here by mentioning characters.
             | Indeed there are a lot of distinct Chinese surnames written
             | in the Chinese script that _become_ identical after
             | romanization, especially the romanization in the West where
             | different tones are also ignored.
             | 
             | Wikipedia has a nice list of common Chinese surnames at htt
             | ps://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_common_Chinese_surname..
             | . and one can easily find examples: like Xu  and Xu  both
             | become Xu after romanization.
        
       | ErikAugust wrote:
       | "Everyone wants to do the model work, not the data work"
        
         | civilized wrote:
         | Which is sad because data work can lead to real domain
         | knowledge, while fitting a grab bag of generic models teaches
         | you nothing by itself (wooo, this thing has 0.0003 higher AUC
         | than that thing!)
         | 
         | Fitting generic data science predictive models is such a rote
         | task these days that there's a crowd of start-ups begging you
         | to pay them to automate it for you.
        
         | mcswell wrote:
         | I don't know how it is in other fields; I'm a linguist, who
         | made the transition to computational linguistics back when you
         | had to be a linguist to be a computational linguist (the
         | 1980s). Slow forward to statistical (and now neural) comp ling;
         | I find it incredibly boring. But the data work still needs to
         | be done, and there are still linguists. And even more than me,
         | they find computational linguistics (of whatever type) less
         | interesting that "real" linguistics. So they will do data work,
         | and willingly.
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | URL should be changed to
       | https://pluralistic.net/2021/08/19/failure-cascades/ - same
       | content on the author's site, without having to navigate around
       | the Medium paywall.
        
         | dang wrote:
         | Ok, changed from https://doctorow.medium.com/machine-learnings-
         | crumbling-foun.... Thanks!
        
       | alecco wrote:
       | https://archive.is/SoCQN
        
       | dmix wrote:
       | You could use this article's underlying thesis to explain why a
       | lot of tech companies fail as well.
       | 
       | Google Health is a good example of failing to appreciate
       | specialization and domain-expertise. Trying to draw value from
       | broad generic data collection when IRL it requires vertical-
       | focused domain-oriented collection and analysis to really draw
       | value.
       | 
       | Funnelling everything into a giant pool of data only had so much
       | value - reducing it to just a proprietary API integrations
       | platform in exchange for valuable data.
       | 
       | This AI analogy extends to healthcare in real life: The job of
       | any generalist doctor is largely just triaging you to the
       | specialists. You reach the limits of their care pretty quickly
       | for anything serious.
       | 
       | AI is much the same way, the generic multipurpose tools tend to
       | quickly lose value after surface level stuff before requiring
       | heavy specialization. Google's search engine is full of custom
       | vertical categorization, where simple Pagerank wasn't enough.
       | 
       | This is why startups can be very useful to society as they get
       | forced to focus on smaller issues early on, out of pure
       | practicality, or quickly die off if they try to bite a bigger
       | problems than they can chew.
       | 
       | Almost every major multi-faceted business started off with a few
       | 'whales' on which they built their business.
       | 
       | Most of the biggest startup flops have been the ones that took VC
       | really early before doing the dirty hard work of truly finding
       | and understanding the problems they are trying to solve.
        
         | iamstupidsimple wrote:
         | > Google Health is a good example of failing to appreciate
         | specialization and domain-expertise. Trying to draw value from
         | broad generic data collection when IRL it requires vertical-
         | focused domain-oriented collection and analysis to really draw
         | value.
         | 
         | I'm not sure I agree with this statement. From what I've heard,
         | Google Health employed a huge team of doctors and they were
         | included through the entire feature development lifecycle,
         | similar to how the product org functions in other software
         | companies.
        
           | dmix wrote:
           | Hiring a broad set of domain experts != a domain/vertical
           | focused business. 'Doctors' can cover a massive disparate
           | field of study.
           | 
           | My point is they did it backwards, they should have found
           | real world healthcare problems to solve then built the common
           | ground between them. Building a generic API platform or cloud
           | database turned out to not be the problem anyone needed help
           | solving. Most companies who _did_ the integration to Health
           | did it for marketing, not because it was essential to any
           | business value.
           | 
           | How many companies have done "AI" merely for marketing too?
           | 
           | Google search ranked websites better than anyone, they zeroed
           | in on that one problem and removed all the cruft, while Yahoo
           | and others were jamming as much crap into their 'portals' as
           | possible. Google seemed to have forgot that lesson.
           | 
           | Waymo fell for this too. They built an entirely new type of
           | car and gambled on a whole new taxi service (among other
           | promises) that would entirely disrupt transportation - as the
           | starting point. Innovation rarely ever jumps ten steps ahead
           | like that. They chose to solve a thousand problems at once
           | while the rest of the world with actual delivered products
           | are struggling to solve even assisted highway driving in
           | high-end luxury cars.. cars people were going to buy anyway.
        
           | AlbertCory wrote:
           | Algorithm:
           | 
           | 1) Decide to take over Domain X.
           | 
           | 2) Hire a bunch of people from Domain X. Don't hire anyone
           | who doesn't agree that you _can_ take over X.
           | 
           | 3) Make them report to the people whose idea it was in the
           | first place. If they say "Hey, maybe this wasn't such a great
           | idea" then push them out, as an example to the rest.
           | 
           | 4) FAIL.
           | 
           | Note that #1 is the key. The decision to do it precedes the
           | hiring.
        
       | aledalgrande wrote:
       | Seems to me that the foundations are not crumbling, but there
       | should be a way to formally determine how good is a model going
       | to be in the wild before it is used, especially in certain
       | industries. Which I think it's where research is focused on these
       | days? White box models, Bayesian distributions etc.?
        
       | killjoywashere wrote:
       | I ask the following as someone who builds and tests models and
       | also annotates data as a domain expert. Is labeling really
       | undervalued by society? Or just by VCs?
       | 
       | I mean, if society depends more on the labeler (e.g.
       | radiologists) why should society reward people for trying to
       | replace the radiologists, regardless of the data quality?
       | 
       | From a societal perspective where human factors scientists tell
       | us that we need people to actually be employed to achieve a sense
       | of self-worth and happiness, shouldn't we punish labelers who
       | might otherwise only enrich the capitalists and undermine the
       | health of the nation's workforces, and thus the wellbeing of the
       | nation as a whole? Did we learn nothing from the underemployed,
       | disaffected, demoralized, suicidally depressed Trump electorate?
       | 
       | The Trump presidency may be a hot mess from which the country may
       | never recover, but are these not the lessons that we ostensibly
       | learned, that were the topic of millions of gallons of ink
       | between 2016 and 2018?
        
       | clircle wrote:
       | I've always thought it was very sad and unfortunate that core
       | data classes like sampling design and experimental design have
       | fallen out of academic style.
        
       | exo-pla-net wrote:
       | TLDR: Many ML models in production are terrible, because they
       | were trained on terrible data. These bad models are being used in
       | high stakes situations, such as COVID-19 detection. ML engineers
       | need professional ethos/regulation, analogous to how civic
       | engineers seeking to build a bridge don't screw around.
       | 
       | My take: Yep, if the model is used a high stakes situation, this
       | is absolutely the case. The model should be required to undergo
       | rigorous testing / peer review before it's released into the
       | wild. In a high stakes situations, we have to ensure that a model
       | is good before people get their hands on it, because people can
       | be reliably depended on to treat the model as an oracle.
       | 
       | The metaphor of a "crumbling foundation" is a bad one, though.
       | It's just unregulated; models aren't leaning on one another, and
       | there isn't a risk of wholesale collapse.
        
       | axelroze wrote:
       | It's a structural issue caused by the way wealth creation works
       | for majority of people in tech. Job hopping, trendy frameworks in
       | CV, "high-impact" projects done ASAP, etc.
       | 
       | No one wants to do boring, slow pace work with lots of planning,
       | reflection and introspection. And why would they do it? These
       | kind of jobs are usually worst paid. We, the practitioners, have
       | every economic incentive to go the other route.
       | 
       | The problem goes far wider in tech than just ML. And unless the
       | society collectively learns to appreciate patience and long-term
       | thinking, as virtues above all else, it won't go away any time
       | soon. What can be done is to discourage use of ML systems if an
       | explainable deterministic system can be used (even one developed
       | in a rush). For example credit scoring. Rules are good while
       | black box artificial neural network isn't, even if the NN has
       | some % more accuracy. Then if the rules are not good then can be
       | amended and in special cases customer support could also override
       | the rules based on human (hopefully unbiased) judgement.
       | 
       | The problem mentioned in the article of COVID-19 detection based
       | on radiology scans is an example of a system which needs ANNs due
       | to the nature of image processing (very difficult problem for
       | rules AI). While techniques such as ShAP could be helpful a
       | radiologist still needs to check because ANNs learn a lot of
       | useless noise very often and the prediction can be nonsensical.
       | Here it would be best to use PCR tests, serology or any more
       | traditional and "boring" tool as it works. Luckily that is the
       | case and shit CNN models start and end their lives in some
       | useless paper.
        
         | TuringNYC wrote:
         | I saw a large organization which was the epitome of this --
         | Executive Directors would propose ambitious ML projects,
         | Directors would create plans and teams, Managers would execute
         | on budgets, create more detailed plans, and then...someone
         | actually needed to do the work.
         | 
         | Because of the length of the effort, the annual compensation
         | would already have been handed out and the EDs, Directors,
         | Managers had already "extracted" their compensation for the
         | project, but usually had none left for the workers who
         | eventually needed to do the actual work.
         | 
         | Not unexpectedly, a rough job was somehow jammed thru with
         | understaffed, underpaid, and unmotivated low-level workers to
         | actually "deliver" on the "AI" projects -- so victory could be
         | declared at the top level...and new projects could begin.
         | 
         | This isnt an ML problem, i'm sure the whole cycle has been
         | repeated with technology-of-the-day generation after
         | generation. It has more to do with governance and
         | organizational maturity to measure real impacts.
        
         | bsanr2 wrote:
         | Why would anyone care to fix things? The way they are are
         | perfectly amenable to the blame- and conclusion-laundering many
         | ML clients seek.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | xyzzy21 wrote:
         | Sadly PCR tests for COVID also test positive for flu and half a
         | dozen other causes. That's why CDC/FDA are seeking proposals
         | for a new test that actually works!
         | 
         | https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dls/locs/2021/07-21-2021-lab-alert...
        
           | maxerickson wrote:
           | You've fallen for the internet. Please restart and try again.
           | 
           | https://www.reuters.com/article/factcheck-covid19-pcr-
           | test-i...
        
             | nerdponx wrote:
             | Sigh. The deniers and antivaxers will have made up their
             | minds already, and this will just be perceived as part of
             | the mass media coverup. It's hopeless.
        
           | ramchip wrote:
           | You've been repeating this, but it doesn't seem to be true...
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28262833
        
       | data4lyfe wrote:
       | The garbage in garbage out cascading failure generally seems to
       | crash pretty fast. Given the U.S. is a capitalistic society the
       | companies / institutions that do this and don't achieve their
       | goals through data science should be apparent and then fail
       | accordingly.
       | 
       | Am I missing something here?
        
         | wffurr wrote:
         | The trail of devastation left by this process, in financial and
         | human terms, when medical systems go awry or vendors to state
         | judicial systems wrongly convict innocent people.
        
           | mcswell wrote:
           | I agree about your latter example, but about your first
           | example: isn't it the case that these faulty AI systems for
           | medical diagnosis have been rejected? Doctors don't like them
           | because they don't want to be replaced or one-upped, and
           | because they just don't trust them (rightly so, as it turns
           | out). So the systems, which were put out for use on a trial
           | basis, don't get used.
        
       | nixpulvis wrote:
       | Why is prose in monospace!? This style needs to die.
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | My favourite example of bad data in for machine learning is the
       | tragic tale of Scots Wikipedia: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-
       | news/2020/aug/26/shock-an-aw-...
       | 
       | It turned out an enthusiastic but misguided US teenager who
       | didn't actually know the Scots language was responsible for most
       | of the entries on it... and a bunch of natural language machine
       | learning models had already been trained on it.
        
         | qweqwweqwe-90i wrote:
         | Scots pretty much is a dialect of English that is phonetically
         | spelt out - it's not surprising that a US teenager could write
         | it.
        
           | m-i-l wrote:
           | > _" Scots pretty much is a dialect of English that is
           | phonetically spelt out - it's not surprising that a US
           | teenager could write it."_
           | 
           | No, there are a number of distinct linguistic features of
           | Scots, and it has its own regional dialects, e.g. Doric,
           | Orcadian, Shetland (which is also in part based on the
           | extinct Norn language). See e.g. https://dsl.ac.uk/about-
           | scots/history-of-scots/ (and sub-pages such as
           | https://dsl.ac.uk/about-scots/history-of-scots/grammar/ ) for
           | further information. Simply doing a dictionary-lookup word-
           | replacement completely misses all of this nuance.
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | Reminds me of:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/English_as_She_Is_Spoke
        
       | simonw wrote:
       | I've seen this in a corporate setting: a machine learning model
       | trained to automatically apply categories to new content based on
       | user-select categories for existing content... that failed to
       | take into account that the category list itself was poorly
       | chosen, so the user-selected categories didn't have a
       | particularly strong relationship to the content they were
       | classifying.
        
       | notanzaiiswear wrote:
       | It sounds like cherry picking bad examples to me. Likewise you
       | could say "programming's foundations are crumbling" by citing all
       | sorts of programming projects that use bad or faulty code.
       | 
       | Meanwhile, speech recognition seems to work extremely well by now
       | (I am a little bit older, so I remember when it didn't work so
       | well).
       | 
       | I am also not aware of any real world cases of AI being used to
       | detect Corona, so that seems to be an example in favour of AI.
       | People tried to use AI, but it didn't work out. So it isn't being
       | used for that purpose.
        
         | wffurr wrote:
         | The infosec meltdown sure seems to indicate programming's
         | foundations are crumbled. All of the unsafe C library code
         | underlying nearly ever modern system is unsafe at any speed.
        
         | wnoise wrote:
         | > programming's foundations are crumbling
         | 
         | That's also correct, and has been for some time (it got worse
         | on each tech boom). This may just be a special case of that.
        
           | notanzaiiswear wrote:
           | What do you mean? At least from the point of view of the end
           | user, apps seem to become better over time.
        
             | AlbertCory wrote:
             | I was tempted to just downvote this, but I thought I'd
             | reply instead:
             | 
             | No, they do not. An _existing_ version of an app may get
             | better over time, but unfortunately it then gets replaced
             | with a different version, which starts from the position of
             | extreme bugginess.
             | 
             | In the case of Microsoft Office apps, for instance, one
             | could easily argue that they are steadily getting worse as
             | more and more features are added.
             | 
             | Google Chrome is pretty clearly getting worse in terms of
             | the amount of memory it uses. I could go on.
        
               | notanzaiiswear wrote:
               | So why not go back to some old version of it? I don't
               | think "memory consumption" is necessarily a good
               | indicator, because sometimes using more memory is a sign
               | of good optimization.
               | 
               | Also how is the memory consumption if you turn off all
               | modern features?
        
         | qayxc wrote:
         | > Meanwhile, speech recognition seems to work extremely well by
         | now (I am a little bit older, so I remember when it didn't work
         | so well).
         | 
         | *provided you speak English or Mandarin, the former preferably
         | of a continental US variety
         | 
         | It's astonishing how bad things get again once you mix in an
         | accent, local dialect (e.g. Swiss German) or a less frequently
         | spoken language (like Croatian).
        
           | notanzaiiswear wrote:
           | Nevertheless, the huge jump is from "does not work at all" to
           | "it works". It seems likely that the technology that worked
           | for English will also work for many other languages.
           | 
           | As for Chinese, it is also pretty amazing that you can visit
           | a Chinese website, click "translate" in your browser's menu
           | bar, and get a reasonably readable translated version.
           | 
           | I wonder if people just take too many things for granted.
           | 
           | Or internet search - they say quality of Google searches have
           | been declining, nevertheless we had a pretty good run for the
           | past 20 years or so with being able to find information on
           | the internet. That is AI as well.
        
             | alpaca128 wrote:
             | > It seems likely that the technology that worked for
             | English will also work for many other languages.
             | 
             | It won't for the foreseeable future. Not for technical
             | reasons; it's just that other languages are usually not
             | handled correctly because most companies think they can
             | just use the exact same approach as in English and they're
             | done.
             | 
             | Until they realise that non-English native speakers also
             | use English words and abbreviations to some degree, both in
             | IT-related contexts but also in everyday life. Now it
             | doesn't just need to handle that one language but also
             | English with an accent. If they're lucky it'll work
             | reasonably well in most cases despite variations depending
             | on the region.
             | 
             | Right now even keyboard completion suggestions struggle
             | with mixing languages and become completely useless in some
             | cases. As English words may be mixed in at any location
             | (and in wildly different frequencies depending on the user)
             | the software now has to guess the language for every single
             | word. The results are not great.
             | 
             | > they say quality of Google searches have been declining,
             | nevertheless we had a pretty good run for the past 20 years
             | or so
             | 
             | As long as Google continues with blunders like showing
             | wrong pictures of people in infoboxes they'll keep failing
             | hard. Their amazing AI shows wrong pictures for serial
             | killers, rape victims and more, which already led to
             | consequences for those people. What makes it much worse is
             | that when someone complains about such a case Google will
             | just replace that picture with another wrong portrait - if
             | they react at all. It would be helpful if those big tech
             | companies would for once trust in human intelligence
             | instead of throwing larger models at the problem.
        
               | notanzaiiswear wrote:
               | Maybe people using Google should start to apply some
               | common sense and not believe everything at face value.
               | Nevertheless, the examples you cite are extremes that
               | affect only few people. So you would rather have no
               | internet search engines at all, so that those problems
               | could be avoided?
               | 
               | Isn't that a bit like saying cars are crap because people
               | die in accidents? Maybe there are just upsides and
               | downsides to most new technologies, and if the upsides
               | outweigh the downsides by far, people will go for it?
               | 
               | As for human intelligence, I am not convinced humans
               | would necessarily fare better at such tasks. I mean they
               | fall for the "same name, same person" fallacy.
        
           | robbedpeter wrote:
           | Why would you expect dialects with vastly fewer training
           | examples to be on par with the most widely spoken languages?
           | It's a simple matter of available data, and the state of the
           | art architectures operate on a paradigm that scales quality
           | of the model to quantity of training data.
           | 
           | If you want better speech recognition for Swiss-German, then
           | record and transcribe hundreds of thousands of hours or
           | whatever level of parity you want to achieve with
           | recognition.
           | 
           | It's not "astonishing" at all. Models won't generalize well
           | unless they have sufficient data, so to achieve multi accent
           | functionality, we need lots more high quality data. Or we
           | need better architectures, so identifying where models fail
           | and engineering a better architecture could be a
           | breakthrough. The shortcomings are not surprising or
           | mysterious at all, it's simply a function of the nature of
           | these algorithms.
        
             | nerdponx wrote:
             | > it's simply a function of the nature of these algorithms
             | 
             | Addendum: don't overlook the incentives and biases of the
             | people building said algorithms.
        
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