[HN Gopher] Japan is holding back as the world rushes toward ele...
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Japan is holding back as the world rushes toward electric cars
Author : bamboozled
Score : 175 points
Date : 2021-08-22 08:38 UTC (14 hours ago)
(HTM) web link (www.nytimes.com)
(TXT) w3m dump (www.nytimes.com)
| kh1 wrote:
| Aside from the points mentioned in the article, I see a lot of
| arguments about economy: Real income isn't rising while cars are
| getting more and more expensive. Just checked the price of new
| Leaf, and it costs the same as median 1 year salary (before tax).
|
| I think that explains why much gasoline "kei" cars (i.e. cars
| with less than 0.66 liter engine) are popular. They are much
| cheaper to buy, cheaper to maintain, etc.
| sokoloff wrote:
| > Real income isn't rising while cars are getting more and more
| expensive.
|
| New cars have risen in price slower than overall inflation for
| decades (at least in the US). In real terms (comparing against
| flat real incomes), cars have gotten cheaper, not more
| expensive.
|
| https://images.app.goo.gl/evJLcuDezo1scu8e9
|
| In case that Google image link dies soon, here's another,
| slightly different one that's likely more durable:
| http://dvschroeder.blogspot.com/2013/08/college-tuition-has-...
| kh1 wrote:
| I meant arguments I see in Japan.
|
| In fact, car price movement is different in Japan, steadily
| rising since the 90s. [0] (Written in Japanese; The second
| chart is CPI-adjusted car prices)
|
| Also PPP against US has been declining. [1]
|
| [0]
| https://news.yahoo.co.jp/byline/fuwaraizo/20200519-00178444
| [1] https://knoema.com/atlas/Japan/topics/Economy/Inflation-
| and-...
| masterof0 wrote:
| Maybe before COVID, but car prices are insane right now. Just
| go to carvana.com , or carmax, etc... You are seeing for
| example: a 2010 corolla with 100K+ miles in 8K+ dollars,
| total madness, you could get this car for 4 to 5k easily. I
| put this example, because this is the type of cars regular
| folks have access to. Dealers don't even show MSRP prices
| anymore, in most official sites I have seen in the west
| coast, you have to call in.
| sokoloff wrote:
| Lumber prices were also insane until the last few weeks.
| That's not indicative of a structural change in the market
| sustainable over a long period of time.
| lostapathy wrote:
| Also worth factoring in is that cars last longer and with
| less maintenance than they did a decade or two ago. Electric
| cars should require even less maintenance.
|
| If today's car costs 50% more than a car from a decade ago,
| but it lasts more than twice is long, isn't it actually
| cheaper?
| bouncycastle wrote:
| A lot of people in Japan drive "kei cars". These are very
| compact, have tiny engines and are very simple and cheap. (Not to
| mention the registration incentives). Until electric cars become
| simple and cheap, they won't be able to compete with "kei cars".
| marto1 wrote:
| Not to mention bicycle usage, walking, etc. is quite widespread
| in urban environments.
| antattack wrote:
| Number one selling EV in China is a 'kei car':
|
| https://insideevs.com/news/525542/china-wuling-hongguang-sal...
| natch wrote:
| Agree with you but sooner or later people are going to have to
| account for the real costs. "Cheap" doesn't account for the
| hidden cost to the environment. Small engines,
| counterintuitively, generally pollute much more per mile than
| larger engines.
| baybal2 wrote:
| In a lot parts of the world, you cannot sell anything bigger,
| or more expensive than a Japanese kei car.
|
| Most of South Asia, and Africa drives Suzuki Altos, and Suzuki
| SX4s are considered there as big cars.
|
| It's definitely, definitely possible to make small, cheap cars
| on batteries. In fact, easier than bigger ones as power to
| weight, and driving range scale non-linearly with the car size.
|
| Big, heavy cars pay big premiums for not being able to use
| stamped parts in suspension for example. Small cars use stamped
| parts for almost everything.
|
| Heavier cars almost invariably have to use more sophisticated
| suspension designs, with more parts to provide an equal level
| of comfort to lighter cars of the same class.
|
| The amount of energy you lose in rolling resistance also varies
| non-linearly. You often can get an _increase_ in driving
| efficiency if you have softer tires when you drive on less than
| idea roads. Etc, etc, etc
| vagrantJin wrote:
| > Most of South Asia, and Africa drives Suzuki Altos, and
| Suzuki SX4s are considered there as big cars.
|
| I saw an F150 once. The thing was a monstrosity that took a
| lane and a half on a suburban road.
|
| Why is a car that big?
| extraAccount wrote:
| It makes sense in the US, where space is cheaper and bigger
| and you have to drive everywhere, but not anywhere else. I
| saw a US car with the embassy flag in the streets of Malta.
| The car was the size of the road, the driver was having a
| lot of trouble making simple turns in the "narrow" streets
| and gave up trying to do a 3-point turn. Probably could
| never find street parking for it, has to be a garage. I
| never saw an American-made car for American use before and
| I was amazed at how huge it was. You do see a local limo
| once in a while, but their drivers are usually more savvy
| as to where they can go with it.
| MisterTea wrote:
| > Why is a car that big?
|
| Because it's a light truck. Useful for towing and moving
| material. Unfortunately used by many as a commuting
| vehicle.
| kevin_thibedeau wrote:
| They're also 15% bigger than they were 20 years ago for
| no apparent reason.
| Cipater wrote:
| >Most of South Asia, and Africa drives Suzuki Altos, and
| Suzuki SX4s are considered there as big cars.
|
| This is quite untrue about Africa. I doubt whether you've
| been to any country in Africa if you think that a Suzuki SX4
| is considered a big car there. You'd get mocked for driving a
| "baby car" if you have an Alto.
| dharmab wrote:
| How does the Mitsubishi i-MIEV compare in price to an ICR kei
| car?
| bouncycastle wrote:
| I'm not sure if i-MIEV are produced anymore, but a new Leaf
| is about 3.3m yen (30K USD), compared to a kei at around 1.7m
| (15.5k USD)
| numpad0 wrote:
| Looks like i-MIEV was discontinued just this March. 10kWh
| and 16kWh models existed, base model was 2.27m($20k) at
| that point, launch price was 4.6m($45k) in 2010.
| warning26 wrote:
| Kei cars seem like an ideal candidate for electrification
| though; they don't need to have high top speeds and are also
| significantly more lightweight than regular-sized cars.
| rootsudo wrote:
| No they are small - the battery will increase weight and they
| may not be able to do much to put in a motor and battery.
|
| Most kei cars are FWD and have very compact
| engine/transmissions - like I would say at max 2 milk crates
| side by side. 3 cylinder engines are common.
| bouncycastle wrote:
| Yeah, they are small, but seem to fit perfectly on Japanese
| narrow roads and small garages. For a lot of people in JP,
| it's the only option because of the size, a larger car
| would simply not fit in their driveway / garage.
| rjsw wrote:
| There are European electric cars similar to Kei cars.
|
| Smart EQ, Renault Twingo, the Citroen Ami is smaller still.
| gregoriol wrote:
| While the Smart and Renault examples are regular cars but
| small (Mini and BMW i3 are about the same category), the
| Citroen Ami is a bit different: it can be driven without
| a licence, could work for teenagers for example, and some
| other specialised brands exist for those
| tiny/simple/quiet cars like Aixam
| (https://www.aixam.com/en/e-aixam-range). Renault also
| had the Twizy in that category.
| numpad0 wrote:
| Smart or Twingo don't qualify as Kei cars FWIW. Ami
| might?
| sp332 wrote:
| The Smart EQ is small enough to be a Kei car and could
| downrate the engine from 80HP to 63. Is it missing
| something else from the category?
| TazeTSchnitzel wrote:
| Wouldn't a kei car be used for shorter distances than a
| full-size car, and thus not need so large a battery?
| numpad0 wrote:
| They're also used for deliveries and sales in urban
| areas. In a sense those are short distance purposes but
| may need some range.
| bouncycastle wrote:
| For many in Japan, it's the only car option, so I assume
| that the distance it needs to go is the same as a full-
| sized car. (I often see them on inter-city expressways).
|
| They do tend to go much slower & the acceleration is
| awfully clunky, but their range & efficiency is amazing.
| themihai wrote:
| I believe this is the biggest misconception among
| automakers...that people like to buy multiple cars: city
| cars, long range cards and ...mountain cars? In reality
| people like the city car to be able to do long range
| trips as well as that's the only car they can afford/want
| to buy.
|
| People don't want to buy two cars, one used 90% for
| everyday trips and the other 10% (i.e in holiday etc).
| tolien wrote:
| > People don't want to buy two cars
|
| I mean, shouldn't that be obvious?
|
| There's a bunch of fixed costs to owning a car (space to
| store it, registration, insurance/vehicle duty, servicing
| and maintenance) that vary directly with the number of
| cars owned (yeah, I know maintenance/insurance gets more
| expensive if you're doing above-average mileage but
| that's on top of a mostly fixed base) and not the number
| of miles you drive.
|
| I guess the Renault Zoe, with its battery rental model,
| is a nod to the direction the automakers really want.
| Instead of buying more than one car, you can buy none and
| rent the one you want!
| lucb1e wrote:
| I wonder if we will be able to get used to renting things
| when we need them only sometimes, or if indeed people
| will continue to want an all-purpose car which then lugs
| around half a ton of batteries while they run errands all
| year.
|
| Having a rich daddy with too many cars, it was honestly
| quite the realization that I could just rent a car and
| not buy one (or, up till that point, borrow it from dad).
| The year before the pandemic is when that hit me and so I
| did that with some friends to go to a conference. Was
| quite happy with the experience: luxury car for 5 days
| for iirc 250 euros plus petrol, divided by four people.
| TazeTSchnitzel wrote:
| I've previously heard of a cheap Chinese electric car that
| seems very _kei car_ -esque to me:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Ytqr8T05OU
|
| As the video says, the car can be so cheap in part because of
| many safety features it lacks. I assume therefore that such a
| car would have to be more expensive in the Japanese market. But
| the space seems perfect for electric vehicles.
| jmnicolas wrote:
| I wonder if there are enough rare earth materials available to
| satisfy the world demand for electric cars.
|
| There was an article recently where a British scientist declared
| that to reach just Great Britain 2050 objectives they would need
| to absorb most (or sometimes many times more) of the world
| production of rare earth and other metals.
|
| If this is true, and the UE stays dogmatic about it, I suspect
| that by 2040 driving a car will be reserved to only the most
| privileged.
| tedsanders wrote:
| It's a good question that's been asked for years.
|
| I'm not aware of any rare earth elements used in lithium
| batteries.
|
| My understanding is that lithium itself is quite common and
| there should be enough for everyone to drive an electric car,
| but it's still an open question as to what future reserves will
| be discovered and how steeply the supply curve will rise with
| more investment and technology. E.g.:
| https://medium.com/batterybits/is-there-enough-lithium-to-ma...
|
| Perhaps a bigger concern than lithium is cobalt, but there are
| cobalt-free chemistries so I don't believe it's a blocker.
|
| I have no idea what you mean by cars in 2040 will only be for
| the most privileged. There are cars rolling off assembly lines
| today that will still be on the road in 2040.
| jmnicolas wrote:
| It's a pity I can't find the article I was referring to, so I
| can't answer with certainty, but there was a lot of rare
| materials needed just to satisfy GB goal.
|
| > I have no idea what you mean by cars in 2040 will only be
| for the most privileged. There are cars rolling off assembly
| lines today that will still be on the road in 2040.
|
| Most of the cars sold now in the EU are not electric. If the
| materials are as rare as claimed in the article, it won't be
| possible to equip everybody with an EV.
| phatfish wrote:
| Quote: "if Japan mandated a shift to all-electric vehicles --
| which have fewer components and are easier to manufacture -- it
| could cost millions of jobs and destroy a whole ecosystem of auto
| parts suppliers."
|
| This is the real reason i think, Japan is scared of the reduced
| complexity of electric cars meaning that their engineering and
| supply chain advantages are diminished. Also having a large
| existing ecosystem built for fossil cars means it is harder for
| them to change. China is the big winner from that (and consumers
| from cheaper electric cars hopefully).
|
| This is also a reason I am not that fond of hybrids. It's a nice
| idea, but I would rather just have the electric engine that is
| less likely to have mechanical issues.
|
| The dirty power plants are not the real problem, because when
| when coal/gas power generation is eventually taken offline this
| immediately benefits all the electric cars that use that power.
| Getting people to switch to electric should be be main focus, and
| mandating that fossil engines will not be sold in the future is
| the best way to do this.
| cannabis_sam wrote:
| Isn't this just capitalism?
| xyzzy21 wrote:
| Japan is still rational, science and empirical reality based.
|
| Unlike America these days.
|
| They've done the calculations based on physics, chemistry and
| economics and the numbers REALLY do not work.
|
| It's also people who do not have degrees in EE, ME or ChemE who
| argue this but they also don't know that they are talking
| about.
| ekianjo wrote:
| Electricity is far from cheap in Japan now that the nuclear
| power plants have all been shut down after 2011. That's also a
| factor that's not going to change anytime soon.
| cbmuser wrote:
| That's fakenews. 10 plants are already back online, more are
| being prepared for restarts.
|
| > http://www.genanshin.jp/english/facility/map/
| ekianjo wrote:
| According to https://ja.wikipedia.org/wiki/%E6%97%A5%E6%9C%
| AC%E3%81%AE%E5..., only 8 are currently online, and that's
| out of 50 reactors. So yeah, nuclear is mostly shut down in
| Japan. Call me again when it reaches 50% of its former
| capacity instead of arguing small numbers.
| [deleted]
| mtrovo wrote:
| This applies much more to Europe as a whole and I don't see it
| being talked that often.
|
| - At least 9 of the top 50 Germany companies are directly
| associated with the auto industry
|
| - The top 5 global automobile suppliers is composed of 4
| European companies and 1 Japanese
|
| - there's a lot of auto industry lobbying for status quo in the
| EU, just see the generalized state of diesel engines cheating
| on tests and the level of actions taken afterwards to just
| treat it as a no problem
| FridayoLeary wrote:
| The PR disaster it generated is a different story. Diesel
| engines haven't recovered.
| tenfourwookie wrote:
| Yamaha are in late stage development of an EV electric engine
| said to be competitive with Tesla.
|
| https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LcZCb06SsxI
|
| Their ebikes are swell too:
| https://www.yamahabicycles.com/bikes/
| verisimilidude wrote:
| Having worked with a car parts manufacturer in Japan, I
| disagree.
|
| It's true there's a huge industry for white label car parts
| manufacturing in Japan. These companies are extremely agile.
| They will adapt. Taking contracts for novel new parts is their
| daily DNA. They already work extensively with foreign car
| companies, so they're not anchored to the foibles of Toyota and
| Nissan.
|
| Furthermore, electric cars still need complex parts! Sensors of
| all types, electric windows and door locks, key fobs, air
| conditioners, steering wheels, windshield wiper motors, etc.
| The list is so very long.
|
| I have one wild guess as counterpoint. Today's Japan would
| never mandate a shift to all-electric vehicles. Why? It would
| destroy their domestic car sales industry. In Japan, many
| people only keep their cars for a few years, then sell them
| back. Used Japanese domestic cars are worth a lot of money.
| These cars are exported to other countries around the world,
| where they're resold. I imagine Japan could no longer resell
| their domestic cars abroad, at such huge volume, if all their
| cars were electric. Many countries do not have the conditions
| or infrastructure to support large-scale deployment of EVs.
| Batteries would probably need to be replaced, lowering the
| profit on the resale. And so on.
| xxpor wrote:
| Japan's business and bureaucratic culture continues to
| fascinate me. On the one hand, they're well known for agile
| lean manufacturing that can adapt, like you said. Also
| construction costs, extremely advanced trains, etc etc.. On
| the other hand, they're very resistant to change. See fax
| machines, website aesthetics, personal stamps (there's a
| Japanese word for these that I'm forgetting), tons and tons
| of paperwork, not leaving until your boss does, companies
| being run by families, the list goes on. I don't know if I
| really have a conclusion, it's just that I don't get how it
| all works together. And given their GDP growth, I'm not sure
| if "works" is really the right term either.
| felipelemos wrote:
| Which is not so far from Germany if you think about it,
| apart from the GDP part.
| whoaisme wrote:
| Crazy how the sum of an entire nation can be just boiled
| down to GDP growth. It seems pretty obvious Japan works
| better than Nigeria or China, GDP growth rates
| notwithstanding. You could pick any group and make insipid
| critiques about their culture.
| suction wrote:
| A short explanation is that they set it up once after WW2
| by copying from the US and Europe, but since then the
| countries they copied from got wise to the IP theft and
| copycat manufacturing and blocked the transfer of later
| tech and processes. So Japan is forced to keep up the old
| thing because it's the only way the know how to run. They
| couldn't modernise from within. The Japanese economy has
| many traits of a cargo cult. Their culture around office
| work, the suits, the drinking, the smoking, the
| "entertaining your clients with prostitutes", the over
| hours doing "dara-dara" (grunting and head-scratching in
| front of an open Excel sheet) just for show, etc. is all
| straight from the Mad Men era as well.
| coldtea wrote:
| > _A short explanation is that they set it up once after
| WW2 by copying from the US and Europe, but since then the
| countries they copied from got wise to the IP theft and
| copycat manufacturing and blocked the transfer of later
| tech and processes. So Japan is forced to keep up the old
| thing because it 's the only way the know how to run._
|
| LOL, that's not even wrong.
| lozenge wrote:
| US working culture is a cargo cult. Cover letters,
| anodyne non-descriptions of "challenges", "going offline"
| and "touching base", cookie-cutter Scrum methodologies...
| hence why we just call it "culture".
| omniscient_oce wrote:
| They also have a lot of insanely passionate and smart
| people, a few of which I know, but the culture can really
| stifle them at times which is a shame.
| tuatoru wrote:
| > And given their GDP growth, I'm not sure if "works" is
| really the right term either.
|
| Japan's GDP growth is actually good for an advanced
| economy, _when you index it to the size of the working-age
| population_.[1]
|
| Japan's working-age population has been shrinking for quite
| a while now.
|
| (China's is peaking about now, so it can expect total
| growth to slow down. Hence the measures taken by the CCP to
| try to increase fertility: lifting the one-child policy to
| three children, introducing tax breaks, limiting for-profit
| tutoring, and most recently cracking down on alternatives
| to making babies: video games and on-line shopping and
| social media.)
|
| 1. Japan's working age population peaked in 1997:
| https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LFWA64TTJPM647S
| s5300 wrote:
| One reason I've seen explained in very high detail in a
| reputable article I unfortunately can't recall the name of
| now, is that a lot of what they do that seems incredibly
| tedious (and well, is) somewhat acts as a type of
| _gigantic_ social safety net in terms of not only income,
| but also socialization and for feelings of self-worth or
| that you 're otherwise still contributing to your society
| (even though, as we are now discussing, it's likely holding
| some parts of societal advancement back).
|
| Basically, if you for whatever reason become/are somewhat
| disabled, cognitively impaired, lose your family, are
| simply getting quite old and losing the ability to do what
| you used to, etc, there will always be some sort of job,
| often falling under the bloat of what you've listed after
| "on the other hand", that you'll be able to do if you want
| to, that will give you a stable income (even if small) and
| get you out of the house or whatever else and somewhere
| that you'll have a routine form of socialization amongst
| your co-workers and such.
| zhengyi13 wrote:
| > personal stamps (there's a Japanese word for these that
| I'm forgetting)
|
| Hanko: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seal_(East_Asia)#Japan
| ese_usag...
| AnthonyMouse wrote:
| > Furthermore, electric cars still need complex parts!
| Sensors of all types, electric windows and door locks, key
| fobs, air conditioners, steering wheels, windshield wiper
| motors, etc. The list is so very long.
|
| Traditional cars already have all of those things. For a
| given volume of cars, the quantity you need doesn't increase
| for an electric car. They're the status quo, not a way to
| make up for the loss of some other production.
|
| And electric cars don't have cam shafts, exhaust pipes, fuel
| pumps, transmissions, emissions control systems, alternators,
| oil pans, spark plugs. That list is so very long too, and all
| of that is going away and not being replaced with anything.
| verisimilidude wrote:
| Sure. You're ignoring that the global market for cars is
| rapidly growing. What they may lose in cam shaft sales,
| they may gain in EV part sales anyway. Battery sales. Time
| will tell.
|
| This would be a good place to mention that even Tesla has
| long partnered with Panasonic to help with their supply of
| batteries.
| tuatoru wrote:
| Sure, Panasonic will be fine (or at least able to
| compete).
|
| Denso (34% of revenue in traditional thermal control,
| i.e. radiators, water pumps, etc., also famous for spark
| plugs) will take a hit.
|
| The thousands of much smaller companies that specialise
| in precisely fabricating minor parts (say, exhaust pipe
| mounts or engine mounts), less so. The expertise is not
| so transferable.
|
| There will be change, and everybody hates that.
| AnthonyMouse wrote:
| > You're ignoring that the global market for cars is
| rapidly growing.
|
| "For a given volume of cars" still holds. If the world is
| buying more cars, the manufacturer of piston rings is
| losing the opportunity to expand their business instead
| of shutting it down, and is inclined to resist.
|
| > What they may lose in cam shaft sales, they may gain in
| EV part sales anyway.
|
| The whole point is that EVs have significantly fewer
| parts, and especially fewer moving parts that wear out.
|
| > Battery sales.
|
| The local supplier of bespoke transmission linkages for
| specific models of Toyota then has to enter into a global
| commodity market in competition with multi-billion dollar
| international companies like LG and Tesla and other
| commodity suppliers in China, South Korea, Germany or
| Texas.
|
| > This would be a good place to mention that even Tesla
| has long partnered with Panasonic to help with their
| supply of batteries.
|
| They did this when they were a tiny upstart with no
| internal production capacity. They're now constructing
| their own battery factories on three continents. Anyone
| converting their whole lineup to electric is likely to do
| the same because it's the single most expensive part of
| the car.
| xyzzy21 wrote:
| The FUNDAMENTAL reality of any Japanese technology companies:
|
| Do JAPANESE customers want it enough to pay for it?
|
| If the answer is "no", nothing in existence can change the
| strategy, design or plans they have. That goes for industrial
| equipment, customer goods, and certainly for cars.
|
| It doesn't matter who else does the alternative, or who else
| tries to shame them into something - it won't work. Gaijin
| opinions count for infinitely less than Nihongo opinions.
|
| Anyone who's not Japanese and has done business with a
| Japanese business quickly finds this out. If you work for a
| US subsidiary, you quickly learn NOTHING you suggest will
| ever be adopted unless major Japanese markets says the same
| thing or think it's a good idea. And then it will only be
| implementing with a peculiar Japanese form.
|
| It's just how reality is.
| AtlasBarfed wrote:
| If it is simply protectionism, it is a particularly foolish
| one in the annals of economics. EV / alternate energy / grid
| storage is in "mature production" stage of full industrial
| scale-up, and is basically already at price parity (EV vs ICE
| drivetrain) or dramatically cheaper (Solar/Wind vs
| Coal/Natural Gas). Some solid state battery will hit
| production, and economies of scale are still in growth phase.
|
| I imagine Toyota, the largest US car maker and probably
| globally the largest, is in deep trouble and is in total
| denial about it. Hitching your future to hydrogen which at
| it's best is probably about equal to EVs in cost, and which
| is so far behind practical use as a fuel that by the time
| (10? 20? years) a generation, transport, and fuelling
| infrastructure was built out, EVs probably will be 1/2 the
| cost they are now.
| PhantomGremlin wrote:
| _Hitching your future to hydrogen_
|
| This is absolutely baffling to me, given, as you noted,
| _generation, transport, and fueling_ issues.
|
| Stevie Wonder would have no problem seeing the problem with
| hydrogen, and yet Toyota still can't see it?
| hakfoo wrote:
| I wonder if it's thoughts of a patent moat.
|
| I'm guessing Nissan, GM, and Tesla have fairly robust
| patent portfolios related to recent EV tech.
|
| Toyota probably has some stuff to offer related to the
| electrical side of the hybrid drive, but it's probably a
| far weaker portfolio-- some of their stuff is near the
| end of the patent lifecycle, and some is only useful in
| the context of range extended or hybrid-electric designs.
|
| That means they can't offer a compelling cross-license
| agreement. It might cost them hundreds or thousands of
| dollars per vehicle to license the patents at "market
| rates", particularly of other players see it as a way to
| hobble a huge competitor.
|
| OTOH, if they can make hydrogen work, they probably hold
| a lot more cards to deal with other manufacturers.
|
| I'm surprised there wasn't more two-pronged thinking
| though. The selling point of hydrogen fuel-cell was that
| it was less subject to range anxiety, but we knew there
| are clearly identifiable markets where that message was a
| non-starter. No point selling a 500km range to a city
| dweller whose longest journey is 25km, but you could sell
| them a vehicle with Ni-MH batteries left over from 1990s
| laptops and it would cover their needs.
|
| This would have allowed them to focus on the markets
| where liquid/gaseous fuel would make its last stands. I'd
| think freight would be the big one-- even if there's a
| charging station every 100km along the interstate,
| business wants to minimize fueling stops, so being able
| to say "800km+ range-- a full shift of driving on one
| tank of hydrogen" would set the bar high for electric
| competition.
| clomond wrote:
| Just a few points to consider here.
|
| 1) the companies may be agile, but there is a very big
| difference between competency in mechanical device/metal
| working/plastic moulds etc and ramping up electrical /
| battery / material science / control systems. I see similar
| challenges in the global 3rd party parts suppliers being
| valid too. The % of value add of an electric vehicle that the
| existing infra can support is significantly less than a
| vehicle with an ICE engine / transmission.
|
| 2) Batteries, with the right thermal and charge management
| systems can last the life of the vehicle itself, with the
| whole set of components reaching 1 mil km in distance with
| 1.5 mil km (1 mil miles) in reasonable approach.
|
| 3) charging infrastructure can scale with the number of
| vehicles - other countries have power grids too!
| bobthepanda wrote:
| > charging infrastructure can scale with the number of
| vehicles - other countries have power grids too!
|
| Very few countries have made sustained investment in lots
| of charging stations, particularly not the ones that Japan
| normally exports to. According to Wikipedia:
|
| > The most popular destinations for used cars from Japan
| are Australia, Bangladesh, Barbados, Bolivia, Brunei,
| Canada, Congo, Dominican Republic, Eswatini, Georgia,
| Guyana, Hong Kong, Ireland,Jamaica, Kazakhstan, Kenya,
| Lesotho, Malaysia, Mongolia, Mozambique, Myanmar, New
| Zealand, Pakistan, Paraguay, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Sri
| Lanka, Suriname, Tanzania, Thailand, Trinidad and Tobago,
| Uganda, United Kingdom, Zambia, and Zimbabwe.
|
| In the case of some of those countries like Kenya, Uganda,
| Congo, and Myanmar, not all households are electrified, so
| you can't reasonably expect them to have national charging
| grids.
| Manuel_D wrote:
| Shallower discharge means reduced range. Or more batteries,
| but that increases mass of the vehicle which in turn
| increases energy consumption. Customers are going to see a
| car with substantially less range, or a much more expensive
| car with less usable space and heavier weight. And it might
| not even be able to reach the advertised mileage if the
| customer is in a hot climate.
|
| Easily replaceable batteries is probably a better bet for
| preserving the retail value of electric cars. Purchases are
| probably going to be made assuming that the battery pack is
| worn, and can be replaced with a new battery pack which
| ideally makes use of more recent battery tech.
| petre wrote:
| > very big difference between competency in mechanical
| device/metal working/plastic moulds etc and ramping up
| electrical / battery / material science / control systems
|
| 1. Tesla uses Panasonic batteries. Japan already has quite
| a lot of domestic industry manufacturing those parts and
| the quality is also top notch.
|
| 2. Dunno about batteries, probably with proper management
| they can last long, but if you maximize performance they'll
| degrade just like horsepower pumped low capacity engines.
|
| 3. Remember Japan had the Fukushima nuclear accident and it
| has turned off nuclear powerplants and replaced the
| capacity with coal for almost 10 years. I don't know if the
| nuclear capacity they have left is even 100% back online.
| verisimilidude wrote:
| Re: 1. I can only speak to the company I saw up close,
| Mitsuba [1]. They are already very sophisticated on all
| fronts you've described: mechanical, electrical, material.
| Even software. If I had to guess, they're licking their
| lips at the kinds of higher margin products that electric
| cars might represent for their business. And they're not
| alone in their capabilities among Japanese parts suppliers.
|
| [1] https://www.mitsuba.co.jp/en/
|
| Re: 2 and 3. I'm sure you're correct. But we're talking
| about salesmanship here. Logic and facts don't always have
| a buyer. They would need to find ways to sell those used
| cars to potentially skeptical markets abroad, in huge
| volume, where they've already got a great racket with ICE
| cars.
| Neil44 wrote:
| Yeah I don't get why people keep repeating that electric cars
| have fewer components. Most of the car is exactly the same.
| But batteries have thousands of parts and electrical
| connections. Motors and the attached gears also fail.
| Everything else is the same as IC.
| ryan93 wrote:
| Batteries have thousands of simple parts. As compared to
| the incredibly high tolerances and massive varieties of
| parts in an engine and transmission
| throwawayboise wrote:
| The drivetrain in an EV has fewer components, but you're
| right about the rest of the car. But it doesn't really
| matter. Internal combustion engines made in the last 20
| years are very reliable. Almost all the weaknesses have
| been identified and compensated for. I have a Ford Focus
| that's nearly 20 years old, it still starts and runs like a
| new car. Has never had a major engine or transmission
| issue, just a water pump and an alternator or two.
|
| Will electric motors be more reliable than internal
| combustion engines? Probably. But it's a difference that's
| not going to be noticable by most people.
| byw wrote:
| It's reliable because you changed the fluids on time.
|
| Also you lucked out with a particularly reliable model. I
| can guarantee you there are plenty of 20-year-old cars
| that are riddled with engine and tranny problems.
| throwawayboise wrote:
| That is true. I have had two Hondas that had transmission
| problems. The engines were great though.
|
| Surprised me given their reputation. I will not be buying
| any more of them.
| cheschire wrote:
| If you didn't have any transmission problems, it's
| because you haven't had a new focus in the last 20 years.
| cogman10 wrote:
| I've a 10 year old ford edge that's been nothing but
| failed parts.
|
| How many miles do you have on your focus? My edge started
| degrading fast after about 100,000 miles.
| rlonn wrote:
| The difference I think people will notice is how much
| less service a BEV requires as opposed to an ICE car. The
| ICE needs constant changes of oils and filters to keep
| those advanced engines operational, and this turns into
| frequent service appointments that cost money.
|
| Tesla Model 3 apparently has a 6 year service interval.
| skhr0680 wrote:
| I drive a 2014 Toyota minivan daily for work and my total
| cost of oil changes is less than $100 per year. At some
| point charging stations will stop being free and I'm
| skeptical of whether BEV will really save people money
| compared to petrol cars.
| cogman10 wrote:
| In the low cost US states ($0.12 per kWh) that's $0.036
| per mile. In highest costs states (0.38 per kWh) that's
| $0.114 per mile.
|
| Gas cost per mile at 30mpg @ $3.00/gal is $0.10.
|
| In most cases, yes, it's going to save money. You'd need
| a high MPG car in an expensive electricity state that has
| somewhat cheap gas to really flip that.
| dangus wrote:
| Charging stations are not free. Only relatively early
| adopter Tesla owners have free charging and only at
| Supercharger stations, and that is a very small sliver of
| the market.
|
| Electric cars are still greatly more efficient on energy
| usage compared to gasoline cars. You'd have to grossly
| overcharge for electricity to make the comparison
| anywhere close.
|
| Use this calculator to see the difference in fuel vs.
| electric costs:
|
| https://afdc.energy.gov/calc/
| Animats wrote:
| _Yeah I don't get why people keep repeating that electric
| cars have fewer components._
|
| But they are not cheaper, yet. Vehicles available in both
| IC and electric consistently cost much more for the
| electric model. The base model Chevy Spark is $13,600. The
| base model Chevy Bolt (which GM says is the successor to
| the electric version of the Spark) is $36,500. The base
| model Ford F-150 is $29,290. The base model electric Ford
| F-150 is about $40,000.
|
| 2022 is going to be interesting for electric vehicles.
| That's the year electric trucks, from Ford to Freightliner
| to Volvo, ship in volume. Possibly Tesla, too. Suddenly,
| electric vehicles will be very mainstream, doing routine
| jobs.
| Someone wrote:
| In Western Europe, it's quite common to see tenders for
| electric public transport bus lines or more generic
| tenders being won by firms offering a solution using
| electric buses (not necessarily on costs, but on
| pollution, noise levels, and environmental grounds)
|
| I think electric vehicles are mainstream there, already.
| It wouldn't surprise me if all further winning bids were
| fully electric.
|
| For example, googling "public transport bus tenders
| electric" gives me
|
| - https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/de-lijn-
| tender-350-elec... (Belgium, 350 buses)
|
| - https://www.sustainable-bus.com/news/tm-barcelona-
| tender-ele... (Barcelona, 210 buses)
|
| - https://www.electrive.com/2020/11/23/amsterdams-gvb-to-
| procu... (Amsterdam, 142 buses)
| PhantomGremlin wrote:
| _Most of the car is exactly the same._
|
| The drive train is enormously different. And that's the
| part that breaks the most.
|
| Here are a few differences, off the top of my head (I'm not
| an auto engineer):
|
| Much simpler cooling. Extracting heat from batteries is
| easier than from an IC engine.
|
| No need for high temperature moving parts like pistons and
| valves. No need for oil under high pressure to cool and
| lubricate those parts. No need for a turbocharger, spinning
| at 100,000 plus RPM.
|
| No need for a complicated system of storing and delivering
| gasoline (tanks, pumps, injectors).
|
| No need for pollution mitigation such as EGR and Urea
| injection.
|
| No need for expensive catalytic converters. Around here,
| those are routinely stolen for the metals, in daylight,
| right off parked cars.
|
| No need for a transmission. Except for exotics such as a
| Porsche Taycan.
|
| No need for a transfer case. If there's a motor for each
| wheel then there's not even a need for a differential.
|
| I think the totality of differences in the drive train is
| profound. The change isn't minor. To riff on something that
| Jules Winnfield said: _ain 't the same fuckin' ballpark, it
| ain't the same league, it ain't even the same fuckin'
| sport_
| mauvehaus wrote:
| Anecdotally: suspension and steering components wear a
| lot more than drivetrain components under northeastern US
| driving conditions. And electric cars will have springs,
| struts, dampers, sway bar links, tie rods, ball joints,
| and all the rest of the parts that are routinely exposed
| to dirt, salt, and water and subjected to all manner of
| forces from random angles.
|
| By contrast, under normal operating conditions, most of
| the wear parts of the engine and driveline are running in
| a sealed environment, bathed in the appropriate
| lubricant, and, in the case of the engine, actively
| cooled to maintain optional running conditions.
|
| Al the parts that make up an ICE are incredibly mature
| technology. The engineering work to get the tolerances
| and everything else worked out that has been done over
| the last hundred years is unreal. And it's happened in
| concert with work by chemists in the lubrication
| industry, and every other ancillary industry. The level
| of reliability under normal use with regular maintenance
| defies belief. Like, when was the last time you gave your
| spark plugs even a moment's thought? The progress in
| metallurgy, fueling and ignition systems has made them an
| all but lifetime part on modern cars.
|
| I would actually wager that for most people, the least
| reliable and most aggravating part of their car is now
| the infotainment system.
| achenatx wrote:
| least reliable is the battery. In texas, 60 month
| batteries only last 3 years. One day you try to start
| your car and it simply wont start. Thus requiring a jump
| start. I know what to do here, but many people I know
| have to get their car towed.
|
| I carry a portable jumpstarter because you just dont know
| when your car will refuse to turn on.
| cogman10 wrote:
| > Motors and the attached gears also fail.
|
| Almost never. EV motors and their gears don't have the
| problem of injected pollutants in the oil. This is why most
| are expected to last a million miles or more.
|
| The lack of a transmission also eliminates a major point of
| failure (gear shifting)
|
| > But batteries have thousands of parts and electrical
| connections.
|
| Those aren't mechanical parts, that's the big difference.
| When people talk about EVs having fewer parts, they are
| referring to the moving parts. The parts that most commonly
| fail in ICE.
| Neil44 wrote:
| They certainly do fail, many teslas are on their third
| drive unit now. And batteries do also fail. Not sure why
| you would say otherwise.
| cogman10 wrote:
| > many teslas are on their third drive unit now
|
| Define "many" and give a citation.
|
| Tesla warranty for the drive unit is 8 years/120,000
| miles. I doubt they'd set it that high if the expectation
| was that these drive units are going to fail all over the
| place.
|
| Compare that to both ford and toyota which have a 5
| years/60,000 miles powertrain warranty
|
| > And batteries do also fail
|
| They can due to manufacturing faults. However, both
| batteries and engines follow more of a washtub curve.
|
| > Not sure why you would say otherwise.
|
| You are overstating the failures of both.
| alliao wrote:
| I actually think these are all engineering problems. I
| mean they literally made light bulbs break when it's easy
| to make them last decades.
| BrandoElFollito wrote:
| Getting people to switch to electric cars means investing in
| the infrastructure.
|
| I have a hybrid car and I am not sure it makes sense
| ecologically. My main reason is the driving experience
| (especially when starting, it is much better than traditional
| engine).
|
| If I drive to the mountains (500+ km), I would like to be able
| to recharge on the way. It takes 20 min per car, so if a full
| tank is 4 min, we need 5 times more chargers than gas
| distributors. Good luck bringing that power to a highway stop
| area.
| dragosbulugean wrote:
| Toyota hybrids are really good imo.
|
| It seems the car is much more complex, but it's not really. The
| electrical motor makes it possible to have a way less complex
| ICE engine, for many reasons. It's still an ICE car, but
| pollution & consumption is halfed.
|
| There is a reason why Toyota Priuses (started building them
| 20yrs ago) and now Corollas are so reliable and cheap to
| maintain that you can find them in any cab.
| tenfourwookie wrote:
| I agree. We used the Toyota Highlander hybrid in the winter
| mountains of Colorado for our taxi service. They could go
| everywhere a GMC 4x4 could (almost), great on fuel, and were
| virtually indestructible. Toyota's continuously variable
| transmission (CVT) is rock solid too, wasn't always, but is
| now.
| loonster wrote:
| The eCVT that hybrids use are mechanically nothing like
| mechanical CVT. The only thing they share in common is they
| are both continuously variable.
|
| This is a great video on eCVT.
|
| https://youtu.be/E_xCssR8qQI
| tonyedgecombe wrote:
| Yes, an ICE car already has an alternator and starter motor,
| you aren't adding much complexity.
|
| Considering how constrained we are by battery supply I
| suspect we would have got much more bang for our buck by
| using plugins as a stepping stone to full EV's.
| Retric wrote:
| If your designing a new suspension or whatnot then you or
| someone else need to build a factory to create it, it's the
| same for every other car component. So there isn't an
| actual battery limitation, just a question of building more
| battery factories. One level deeper building the machines
| or build batteries is more of a limitation which can also
| be scales up.
|
| People point to Lithium as a limitation, but the price
| recently crashes in 2019 due to over investment
| demonstrating much faster EV adoption would and is
| possible.
| ErikVandeWater wrote:
| Any good sources on hybrid vs conventional engines? I'm very
| surprised they have a limited increase in complexity.
|
| I'll add that hybrids are more profitable for any
| manufacturer because it means that you can't take it to your
| family mechanic for service (You need special training and
| equipment to work on them because it's high voltage). Because
| the dealers are making a lot on service, the manufacturer can
| cut their bonus on sales.
| ajuc wrote:
| Serial hybrids IC engines are simpler, because they only
| power the generator - no need for transmission, gears, and
| adjusting power through a wide range of rpm. Basically
| generator+electric engine is the transmisson/gears.
|
| Parallel hybrids ICEs are just as complex as normal ICEs.
| loonster wrote:
| This is my favorite video on hybrid transmissions. It is
| what turned me from a hater to fanboy.
|
| https://youtu.be/E_xCssR8qQI
| baxuz wrote:
| Here's a great explanation using a model:
|
| https://youtu.be/MsvVD0FaF28
|
| The amazing thing about them is that they have no parts
| that need friction to work like belts, CVT axles or even
| the clutch. Nor do they have any moving parts like a
| regular transmission which shift into place.
|
| It's 2 electric motors connected via a planetary gearset to
| the ICE. Nothing can get out of alignment or get loose.
| kube-system wrote:
| The engines in a hybrid are mechanically the same as their
| traditional counterparts (except they run Atkinson cycle
| instead of Otto cycle)
|
| The big mechanical advantage in simplicity is the
| transmission. While they're called "eCVTs" in some cases,
| the transmission is better described as "almost no
| transmission". They do not use the same belt and cone
| system that gasoline CVT vehicles use.
|
| In Toyota systems they use a simple fixed planetary gearset
| and can vary the output speed simply by varying the ratios
| of speed of the two electric motors and the gasoline
| engine, rather than mechanically changing the ratio of the
| gears like a traditional transmission.
|
| The Honda hybrid system is even more simple. They just
| directly drive the wheels with an electric motor and use
| the gasoline engine as a generator. (With the exception of
| a single lockup clutch that allows the engine to drive the
| wheels at a fixed ratio at highway speeds)
|
| Hyundai is a weird exception. Their hybrids have
| traditional transmissions attached to them.
|
| Except for some computerized parts of the system, the
| majority of them can be worked on by any mechanic, or even
| shade tree mechanics. The high voltage system requires
| care, but there are simple procedures to work on it safely.
| You can find many YouTube videos with instructions on tasks
| like rebuilding a battery pack, that dealers won't even do.
| Most parts on a car aren't the high voltage system anyway.
| hcurtiss wrote:
| Having owned a Prius for a decade, and now a Hybrid RAV4,
| I can say with confidence that even if they were somehow
| more complicated, the great feature is that they never
| need work. Truly exceptional reliability.
| shsbdncudx wrote:
| I used the share this view, but I no longer believe it. The
| complexity is just in different places. Look at a Tesla, it's
| an incredibly complex machine. The ICE is effectively a solved
| problem.
|
| OTOH this is their reason. Japan needs to retool ASAP. They're
| the most technologically advanced country in the world though
| and they have the best process management, so they can do it.
| SV_BubbleTime wrote:
| Automotive EE here.
|
| Whoever is saying electric vehicles has reduced complexity
| has no idea what they are taking about. Literally none. It's
| complete fantasy.
|
| The THEORY you could make an EV less complex is probably
| true, but the REALITY is not.
|
| There isn't a single EV in the world today that is less
| complex than it's non-EV relative.
|
| Chrysler and GM EV and HEV specially I've worked on both have
| entirely separate bus systems just for the power train, this
| is on top of the already existing PT bus that the ICE
| vehicles all have. The battery heater, the battery
| pump/cooler, the multiple charging systems, the additions to
| the transmissions systems, the ABS systems with ICE that
| handle stability control were already complex, now more so
| because they are entirely new devices that bring in
| regenerative braking and efficiency. All the software has
| changed around target torques/rpm/target gear for mileage.
| There is no other brand that defies my assertion.
|
| Literally everything in an EV is more complex. Didn't have to
| be, but is.
|
| Edit: lol first hand knowledge of complex systems, physical
| layout, mounting, diagnostics, wiring, their signals and data
| patterns... nope, wrong! Classic HN
| kongolongo wrote:
| Agreed people tend to fixate on the engine/motor, which
| might be less complex (even that's debatable), but the rest
| of the system supporting that motor is complex in it's own
| right.
| goodpoint wrote:
| You are almost being downvoted to oblivion. HN is really
| becoming 4chan.
| dang wrote:
| Please don't break the site guidelines.
|
| https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
|
| Particularly because:
|
| https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&
| que...
| avianlyric wrote:
| > Edit: lol first hand knowledge of complex systems,
| physical layout, mounting, diagnostics, wiring, their
| signals and data patterns... nope, wrong! Classic HN
|
| I imagine you're getting down votes because your comment
| seems to only consider complexity in EV's and doesn't talk
| about the complexity found in ICE vehicles.
|
| If you take an existing ICE platform and adapt it for EV's
| of course it's going to end up more complex from a control
| perspective. You've taken the existing complexity of the
| ICE platform and just strapped all the EV stuff onto the
| side.
|
| Perhaps if you could talk about the mechanical complexity
| found in the ICE powertrain and compare the to an EV you
| might get a better response.
|
| The number of high load mechanical components found in an
| ICE powertrain is huge. Components that are forced to
| operate under an extremely wide range of temperatures and
| loads, which just don't exist in EVs.
|
| When ICE cars fail it's almost certainly a mechanical
| failure. Software based control systems generally don't
| fail, they either work or they don't. You don't get "wear"
| in software.
|
| Now control systems mistakes can result unnecessary wear in
| mechanical parts, and premature failure. But having fewer
| mechanical parts significantly reduces the surface area for
| control errors.
| SV_BubbleTime wrote:
| > doesn't talk about the complexity found in ICE vehicles
|
| What part of _"There isn't a single EV in the world today
| that is less complex than it's non-EV relative."_ doesn't
| cover that it's a relative difference?
|
| I don't care about complexity of ICE. That's our
| baseline.
|
| There isn't a single system in EVs that is less complex.
| Period. You won't break a fuel pump in a full EV, but
| will in a hybrid or plug in hybrid, and you'll break the
| battery pump in a full EV... so where are you better off
| there?
|
| If you want to change the topic to reliability, we scrap
| thousands of tons of electric motors. Sometimes because
| the connection to the battery is bad (source and drain
| terminals). Sometimes there is nothing wrong with them,
| but the dealer fails to diagnose issues like they can
| with ICE components, most of the time we have no idea
| what is wrong with them.
|
| Having fewer mechanical parts is better, sure, ok, but do
| you realize how many more parts are added to EV systems?
|
| You are thinking in terms of classic vehicle design
| practices. What you are failing to understand, being an
| outsider, is that we used to design things the good/hard
| way because they had to last for 60,000 miles without
| major replacements... now... since as you write there is
| a lot more software, we design rough enough to get it on
| to the storage lot awaiting shipping, we get it refined
| enough by the time the dealers get them, and we keep
| refining software updates over the year. I have a 2021
| company vehicle, the Linux-based radio completely resets
| going down the road probably once every 100 miles. It's a
| completely known issue and the supplier will probably
| push a fix in 6 months. No one cares. This would have
| been inexcusable years ago.
|
| Right, software doesn't wear. But it has a lot more bugs
| and bullshit. You don't develop new issues years later -
| oh wait, yes, we do, all the time. Mechanical parts have
| a lineage and a hundred years of how to make an x or y, i
| can replace almost any part and we know approximately
| when they will fail. Software, relatively the Wild West.
|
| This is why they want OTA updates so badly. To finish
| them in your driveway.
|
| If my life depended on a vehicle, I'd take a 2014 Jeep
| Wrangler (or similar decontented vehicle) over any 2021
| vehicle by any mfg, that's ICE or not. But double true
| that I wouldn't trust my life on an EV in 2021.
|
| I own an EV (plug in hybrid and a often use a full
| electric) and like them. But I don't trust them because
| I've seen the sausage being made.
| saltcured wrote:
| I think I understand where you're coming from, and the
| difference between your view and the popular HN take. You
| are considering complexity in a more complete sense of
| control theory, interdependence of systems, probabilities
| of failure, and difficulties in diagnostics. The amount
| of digital controls and software is a big part of that.
| The novelty of the systems also means that the ecosystem
| of support and maintenance is not there (yet?).
|
| The typical "EV is simpler" HN take, I think, instead is
| thinking of mechanical system complexity and mostly
| ignoring the digital domain. We can see how all those
| valves, cams, counter-balance shafts, lubrication
| systems, fuel systems, and emission control systems go
| away, and they were the root of our most expensive car
| maintenance nightmares so far. It is hard to compare
| these apples and oranges, taking away a bunch of
| mechanical systems, which were exquisitely modular, and
| replacing them with highly integrated electronic
| components.
| SV_BubbleTime wrote:
| > We can see how all those valves, cams, counter-balance
| shafts, lubrication systems, fuel systems, and emission
| control systems go away, and they were the root of our
| most expensive car maintenance nightmares so far.
|
| That's a good point. You aren't going to have an NVLD
| leak in an EV.
|
| But... what people aren't realizing is how much is added
| to EVs that replaces all this.
|
| How many people realize there is a heating and cooling
| system for the batteries? Pumps, radiators, heating
| elements, all sorts of modules for each component, the
| entire generator system. And it's all brand new.
| pensatoio wrote:
| I think you're obviously right, but you're also being
| overly pessimistic and short-sighted. Diagnosis and
| maintenance efficiency on BEVs will surely improve as the
| segment matures.
| SV_BubbleTime wrote:
| > overly pessimistic and short-sighted
|
| Ok, so a person who is designing and testing components
| of these systems is pessimistic, but people who are just
| using theories and idealism are cheerleading, what does
| that tell you?
|
| Also, it's not pessimism. It's just the reality.
| Automotive engineering has never been sloppier. It's also
| never been less complex. It's ALSO only getting more
| complex with EV. Be upset about that all you like, but
| it's how it is.
|
| So my original point is that anyone who says EVs are less
| complex is completely dealing with fantasy.
| binkHN wrote:
| > If my life depended on a vehicle, I'd take a 2014 Jeep
| Wrangler...
|
| I'm glad to read that. I've been feeling a bit backwards
| by holding on to my Jeep in a world slowly being filled
| by EVs, but you just made me feel better about it.
| adventured wrote:
| > Look at a Tesla, it's an incredibly complex machine.
|
| Tesla's EVs are overly complex, overly sophisticated. That
| doesn't need to be the case. Tesla adds enormous amounts of
| system and software complexity to try to be on the bleeding
| edge of supposed innovation. Tesla is selling that premise,
| that brand/image. If you remove it, people won't desire their
| cars as much, and certainly not at Tesla's price point.
|
| You can make a far less complex, lower cost, 'dumb' EV. China
| is doing it right now and selling a lot of them.
|
| What'll you'll see out of places like China over the next few
| decades, are hyper mass produced, high reliability, low cost,
| low complexity EVs that don't chase the cutting edge. China
| isn't yet great on reliability in auto manufacturing, they
| will be however if you iterate them forward in time.
| conjecTech wrote:
| I'd be curious to hear where you think all of that complexity
| has moved. While ICE are definitely more reliable these days
| than they were 50 years ago, I don't think the major issue is
| with them directly, but with the sheer amount of ancillary
| components they imply - ie belts, alternator, fuel injectors,
| spark plugs, transmission, radiator, starter motor, starter
| battery, etc. Those are the source of the vast majority of
| problems and maintenance for ICE cars. EVs need none of them.
| For electric vehicles, I'd view the cooling system as the
| largest source of complexity. And I think those will simplify
| as batteries become better designed (lower internal
| resistance from tabless for instance), more dense and less
| expensive.
|
| I think it's important not to conflate Tesla and electric
| vehicles. They are building luxury vehicles that have the
| added complexity and added unreliability that implies.
| _ph_ wrote:
| The only problem is, it never paid off to hold to a technology
| which time has passed, however profitable it was. The impact
| onto the industry of going electric is much less than missing
| the boat and not going electric in time.
| charlesju wrote:
| I'm really excited about the new PHEVs (plug-in hybrids) coming
| out of Asia. I think that there is a much better chance that
| PHEVs are the road to mass adoption than pure electric in the
| short term (ie. 10-15 years).
|
| Electric still has the issue that you have to charge for like
| 40 minutes on a long road trip, which personally seems more
| frequent than I would like. It takes a 6 hr drive from LA to SF
| and makes it a 7 hr drive, that's quite material when you're
| trying to get from one place to another.
|
| The new Rav 4 Toyota Plug-in Hybrid is really amazing. 42 miles
| on electric, gas for the long road trips. It also is the
| fastest production Toyota (I think?).
|
| 42 miles is really a lot of miles for most daily commutes. In
| the near future we'll have electric chargers at most commuter
| destinations so that's really a 84 mile round trip which is
| hopefully enough for most daily commutes. I suspect as electric
| improves in general, PHEVs can also squeeze out more from their
| pure electric side.
|
| With all that being said, I'm still drawn to the Tesla as my
| next vehicle only to support Elon and his manic missions to
| improve humanity. But all things being equal, it's hard to
| ignore the superior build quality and convenience of the new
| Japanese PHEVs.
| jka wrote:
| > The new Rav 4 Toyota Plug-in Hybrid is really amazing. 42
| miles on electric, gas for the long road trips.
|
| For comparison, the Nissan Leaf E+ is quoted[1] at a full-
| charge mileage range of 239 miles.
|
| > Electric still has the issue that you have to charge for
| like 40 minutes on a long road trip, which personally seems
| more frequent than I would like.
|
| Agreed, stopping often to charge can be a hassle, but if you
| only have to stop once from SF-LA (perhaps taking a break and
| having a bite to eat while away from the wheel), that'd seem
| fairly reasonable.
|
| Worth also noting apparent conflicting reports about the
| emissions claims made by PHEV manufacturers; see
| https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-54170207
| ("Plug-in hybrids are a 'wolf in sheep's clothing'") for two
| different points of view.
|
| [1] - https://www.nissan.co.uk/vehicles/new-
| vehicles/leaf/range-ch...
| jobowoo wrote:
| With a Tesla it's only 20 minutes to get 80% charge. It would
| be more than sufficient to do the LA to SF drive. I'd imagine
| most people would want to stop at least that long during the
| drive just to stretch their legs.
| kongolongo wrote:
| It's still a logistical challenge in places without high
| charging accessibility though. That 20 minute charge might
| add another 20 minutes or even more depending on where it's
| located.
| theluketaylor wrote:
| Are you referring to lineups at the charger? Or having to
| deviate from your route due to charger location?
|
| I have heard stories and seen pictures of people waiting
| to charge in California, but I have never personally
| waited for a supercharger on my many road trips. The
| infrastructure needs to be built out to keep pace with EV
| adoption, but my understanding is the california problem
| is more about how long it takes to get building permits
| in the state than any lack of desire to add chargers.
|
| As for poor routing, the fastest chargers are rarely more
| than a few hundred meters from major routes. A couple
| times they have been more convenient than gas stations.
| The only charger I've been to that was more than 2-3
| lights away from the highway is Owen Sound, Ontario, but
| that city is known as a travel black hole and doesn't
| have a ring road or fast way through.
| kube-system wrote:
| I understood the comment to be referring to requiring a
| detour for charging. That was also my reason for not
| buying a model 3. I put in some normal trips that I take,
| and while it was technically doable, it took me routes I
| usually avoided due to traffic, tolls, or sometimes
| weather conditions.
|
| I know my routes are niche (which is why the traffic is
| on the other road), but for me it just didn't make sense
| yet.
| theluketaylor wrote:
| I tend to road trip in very unpopulated areas, so in my
| experience there isn't much route choice. There is only 1
| highway you could ever use. I also find the only times
| I'd bother with an alternate route are inside a single
| battery charge (either under 300 km or the start/end leg
| of the trip).
|
| Your use case is quite interesting. Got an example?
|
| The lack of waypoints in the Tesla navigation is their
| biggest missing piece of software currently. The
| navigation is extremely good about recalculating both the
| directions and charge plan as as you go even if you
| deviate from the suggested route. I sometimes cheat a
| little by navigating to a midway point. For example, I
| set Orangeville as the destination leaving Kitchener-
| Waterloo for Sudbury since I didn't feel like going
| through Toronto.
| jandrewrogers wrote:
| In the mountain West of the US, there are semi-frequent
| major highway closures due to weather conditions, serious
| accidents, etc. It is not uncommon for the shortest paved
| detour to add 120 km to your trip. That's not a big deal
| in an ICE vehicle, since every one-horse town near the
| detour route has a gas station. That fact has saved my
| bacon several times even with proper planning. People who
| live out there are accustomed to this reality.
| Adventurous people can sometimes find much shorter
| alternative routes using ranch/mining/forestry trails but
| those don't always exist and you definitely won't be
| driving your Tesla on those roads.
|
| The worst detour I've experienced in recent years was a
| serious accident in the middle-of-nowhere Utah, which
| closed the highway in both directions for almost 24
| hours. The shortest paved detour around the accident
| added 150km of nothingness to the trip.
| zarkov99 wrote:
| Tesla's Model S has a range of over 400 miles and it can
| recharge 180 miles in about 15 minutes. So this is mostly a
| solved problem, all that is left is pushing these specs down
| to more economical models. I would be surprised if in say 3
| years we do not see comparable specs in Tesla's baseline
| models. Everybody else will lag a few more years, but they
| will get there as well.
| slaw wrote:
| Tesla Model S has highway range of 320 miles on flat
| terrain with perfect weather.
|
| https://www.caranddriver.com/news/a36302930/tesla-model-s-
| lo...
| zarkov99 wrote:
| According to the Tesla web page today the long range
| model has 405 miles EPA estimated range. Its possible
| that the article you posted is out of date.
| qweqwweqwe-90i wrote:
| It depends on the speed (that was 75 mph) and other
| factors - I would bet that car could go 700 miles with
| the right tires at a pretty slow pace.
| tzs wrote:
| < I'm really excited about the new PHEVs (plug-in hybrids)
| coming out of Asia. I think that there is a much better
| chance that PHEVs are the road to mass adoption than pure
| electric in the short term (ie. 10-15 years)
|
| OT: I have a question about PHEVs that I haven't been able to
| find a clear answer too. Maybe someone here knows.
|
| It is generally considered bad for an ICE car if you go too
| long without driving it [1]. That article says you should
| drive it for at least 10 minutes at highway speeds every two
| to three weeks.
|
| If I had a PHEV, I could easily go for months where I drive a
| few times a week, but always entirely for trips that can be
| done without using the ICE engine. That would prevent the
| problems mentioned in that article that aren't specific to
| the ICE engine, but the fuel and fluid problems could still
| be an issue.
|
| My question is do the PHEVs handle that automatically, such
| as by keeping track of ICE usage and automatically running
| the ICE engine occasionally on trips that could normally be
| done without it? Or is this something I'd be expected to keep
| track of, and say, skip plugging it in every now and then to
| force it to use the ICE engine?
|
| [1] https://www.jdpower.com/cars/shopping-guides/how-long-
| can-a-...
| radimm wrote:
| My PHEV ICE engine turns on from time to time and keeps on
| running for short periods of time.
|
| I believe it last happened on Friday when I started the car
| and it was on for roughly 10 minutes. Have to say I was
| really wondering "what's wrong with the car" :)
|
| Another thing that car is having is pressurized gasoline
| tank to avoid degradation of the fuel. If I'm correct this
| is reason behind it https://publications.lib.chalmers.se/re
| cords/fulltext/238063...
| rebuilder wrote:
| The Chevy Volt (or Opel Ampera in my case, but same thing
| essentially) keeps track of fuel age somehow and will run
| the engine to burn fuel if it sits in the tank too long.
| The other points in that list don't seem applicable.
| jsperx wrote:
| Sounds like they do keep track and will invoke special
| modes if the gas is gonna go "stale":
| https://www.cartalk.com/blogs/dear-car-talk/can-gasoline-
| go-...
| natch wrote:
| You really don't need a PHEV in the US at least.
|
| Tesla charging options are so plentiful...
|
| I say this to people and they say "but Teslas are so
| expensive." And then they end up buying an Audi or BMW, and
| when they later test drive a Tesla, they regret their
| decision.
| jsperx wrote:
| It will be interesting to see what opening up
| SuperChargers to non-Tesla vehicles is going to do for
| availability though. I often see the sites near me full
| or near-full as it is.
| jandrewrogers wrote:
| Tesla charging options are only plentiful is _some_ parts
| of the US. In other regions of the US they are sparse
| even along interstates. In some regions with this
| property, like the mountain west, road closures that
| incur very long unplanned detours are a thing you have to
| plan for even as an ICE driver. Those detours can take
| you a long way from a charging station but you can find a
| gas station in just about every podunk town of 300
| people.
|
| There is a chicken and egg problem here. In parts of the
| country that rely on sparse networks of gas stations for
| their cars, few people would buy a BEV unless all of
| those gas stations simultaneously added chargers in the
| complete absence of local demand.
| HWR_14 wrote:
| > You really don't need a PHEV in the US at least
|
| You misspelled "California". In major US cities, you are
| lucky to have one super-charger per million people. If
| you live in an apartment (as many people do) and cannot
| charge your car in the parking lot (which, due to power
| load requirements, most people cannot), you don't have a
| great way to keep your Tesla filled up.
| AtlasBarfed wrote:
| 40 miles is close to a sweet spot 99% EV daily driving range.
| The current 20-ish PHEVs aren't up to snuff.
|
| In the short run (5 years), I agree that PHEVs are the best
| use of the available battery materials supply if we want to
| get to low hanging fruit of 90% consumer trips are EV.
|
| Teslas are great and they absolutely should pursue the
| research on full-EV vehicles because that is the 10 year
| future. But how many PHEVs could be made out of a P-100's
| battery? 10?
|
| ... that is assuming the mainline autos hadn't been dragging
| their feet for 20 years putting a goddamn electric plug on
| their hybrids, and not pushing the technology.
|
| That Toyota so stringently resists even a plug in for their
| platforms in 2021 (for example, the new Toyota minivan is a
| hybrid with no option for a plug) is so mindboggling it must
| be intentional.
| dheera wrote:
| I'm considering switching from my current car subscription
| (because they got bought out by Fair, and since then the
| service has turned to shit). Hybrids like that sound nice but
| I'm still eyeing Tesla because they are the only ones who
| have a reasonably autopilot system.
|
| Many others have lane keep systems that are designed to kill
| -- if you accidentally fall asleep at the wheel or become
| incapacitated, it will shut the lane keep system off and
| crash, instead of attempting to coming to a clean stop and
| putting on emergency flashers, which is what Tesla does.
| theluketaylor wrote:
| Charge speed is a lot faster than you think and getting
| better. Play with abetterrouteplanner.com where you can
| select the vehicle, conditions, and the route.
|
| People also conflate 5 minutes of refueling with 5 minute
| stops. EVs charge while you go the bathroom, stretch your
| legs, eat, and anything else you and you passengers might do
| while stopped. I find in practice if you're roadtripping with
| more then 1 other person it's basically impossible to go
| longer than 3 hour legs and stop for less than 15-20 minutes.
| That's puts you right in range where you spend less than 10
| minutes waiting for the car for every 3 hours travelled.
|
| https://abetterrouteplanner.com/?plan_uuid=80f2be62-b42e-4b5.
| ..
| api wrote:
| PHEVs could make a lot of sense in areas of the US like the
| Midwest and non-urban West where routine commutes are short
| (and thus mostly electric) but occasional road trips are
| common.
| kube-system wrote:
| I've often heard people say about range/charging anxiety:
| "just use your electric car for your commute around town and
| for long trips keep your gasoline car or rent one"
|
| PHEVs do that all in the same car. Since much of the charging
| stations have been monopolized by Tesla in the US, I think
| PHEVs are the solution to infrastructure growing pains.
| jtaillon wrote:
| Tesla has not "monopolized" charging stations in any
| reasonable understanding of the word. They spent somewhere
| south of $1B to built their own infrastructure. Any other
| company could have done that, but they chose to drag their
| heels instead. Even still, they could _still_ do that (and
| maybe EA will be that network). Electricity is pretty much
| everywhere, and there's definitely room for lots more long
| distance chargers. I don't understand how anyone could
| think what Tesla has done with it's supercharger network is
| a bad thing....
| kube-system wrote:
| Tesla does not let other vehicles charge at their
| stations, at least in the US.
|
| I don't have this issue with any gasoline stations.
| jsperx wrote:
| Musk said on an earnings call they expect to open the
| network up to other models by the end of this year.
|
| https://electrek.co/2021/08/18/tesla-prepping-giant-
| supercha...
| toast0 wrote:
| Forward looking statements from Musk don't have a good
| history of accurate timelines.
| HWR_14 wrote:
| > Tesla does not let other vehicles charge at their
| stations, at least in the US.
|
| IIRC, the EU forced all EVs to adopt an industry standard
| charger interface. So, yes, it's a stupid US thing.
| jtaillon wrote:
| Should they? Why should one private company be forced to
| build infrastructure for other companies that are
| intentionally dragging their heels? GM doesn't run gas
| stations
|
| It would be great if they could be altruistic to let
| anyone use them, but altruism isn't really a good path to
| profits in our society
| kube-system wrote:
| Because electrical distribution infrastructure is a
| utility in every other case.
|
| Good on Tesla for building a solution, but their stations
| are monopolized, and this isn't good for EV adoption
| overall. It's good for Tesla.
| jtaillon wrote:
| Ok, then the government should be doing it and investing
| to meet current and future demand. A private company (in
| a non-regulated market) can't be forced to do so.
| kube-system wrote:
| I am not suggesting any of that. I explicitly said above
| that PHEVs are the more immediate solution to the
| situation.
| jtaillon wrote:
| Yes, in the same way a Cuisinart blender is a "monopoly"
| since I can only buy a Cuisinart blender from Cuisinart
|
| No one's preventing anyone from building a better
| solution and making it available to consumers. Not a
| monopoly
| kube-system wrote:
| I am not suggesting that Tesla has prevented anyone else
| from building charging stations. I am using the word
| monopoly in the non-antitrust sense here.
| tene wrote:
| In what sense do you mean it, then?
|
| Are any of these what you meant? https://www.merriam-
| webster.com/dictionary/monopoly
|
| None of those seem to apply to Tesla's charging stations
| to me. Could you explain more about what you're trying to
| say here?
| kube-system wrote:
| > To dominate or use to the exclusion of others.
|
| https://www.wordnik.com/words/monopolize
|
| Tesla's network of fast charging stations are owned by
| the manufacturer of the car, and they exclude others from
| using their network.
| rsync wrote:
| "I think that there is a much better chance that PHEVs are
| the road to mass adoption than pure electric in the short
| term (ie. 10-15 years)."
|
| I think you are correct - you just missed that the 10-15
| years was 2010-2025. It has already happened.
|
| We are on the verge of a hockey stick of adoption of purely
| electric cars.
|
| The frustrating recalcitrance of incumbents (like Volvo and
| BMW) was their attempt to recoup _billions_ in investments in
| the last 1-2 generations of vehicles - costs that had already
| been sunk.
|
| That is why after 10 years of concept cars and
| "e-initiatives" and weird tron-cars we finally have _actual
| electric cars_ coming out of Audi /BMW/Volvo.
|
| They were just stalling...
| tshaddox wrote:
| Is that the case? My impression is that PHEVs have been
| very rare in the last 10-15 years. Even now the selection
| seems very small. I've just started looking into them and
| it seem like the market is just barely getting up and
| running with some decent 2021-2022 models.
| stubish wrote:
| It depends on the region. Local news in Australia is on
| how lack of incentives for electric vehicles means there
| are very few models available. The cars are there, just
| sold elsewhere where the market is. Crank up your
| emissions standards or carbon requirements and the
| cheaper electric cars appear, with the old petrol models
| dumped in the backwaters.
| _ph_ wrote:
| A Model S can do LA-SF without a stop. A Model 3 can do it
| with a very short recharge stop (20min). The new EQS should
| be able to do it very easy non stop. Are you really driving 6
| hours without stopping for a drink and without any bio-break?
| alliao wrote:
| many countries have regulations around fatigue driving,
| look them up and adapt them to your own driving schedule.
| Usually it's around a break every 3hrs of driving. Some
| countries have them longer possibly due to lobbying but
| often are justified also by their quality of road and
| landscape etc etc.
| 542458 wrote:
| One thing to add here is that huge nonstop marathon drives
| are generally unsafe - most all people can't maintain
| alertness for that long. I have done the 7-hour hell drive
| in the past, but I probably would have been better off had
| I been forced to stop for ten or twenty minutes every two
| hours or so.
| Theodores wrote:
| In the UK truck drivers:
|
| a break or breaks totalling at least 45 minutes after no
| more than 4 hours 30 minutes driving
|
| They are professional drivers.
|
| To speed up EV adoption, improve road safety and make an
| attainable mileage goal for EVs we could use legislation
| to require a 30 minutes break after three hours of car
| driving.
|
| This would be unpopular and initially hard to enforce,
| but if you were in an accident after driving without a
| break for six hours then you would not do it again as the
| law would make you the dangerous driver and your
| insurance would not help.
|
| Trucks have a tachograph, this could be mandated for cars
| too.
| HWR_14 wrote:
| It's far easier to stop at a rest stop and rotate the
| person behind the wheel (time, 20 seconds) than stop and
| refresh a driver.
| _ph_ wrote:
| Whom are you running from?
|
| Even if you can shorten the stop times by changing
| drivers, it is a big relief to get out of the car for at
| least a few minutes, literally stretch your legs, visit a
| bathroom and perhaps get a coffee or a snack.
| HWR_14 wrote:
| I mean, you may find it a big relief to get out. I prefer
| to get to my destination faster. Or, if we do want to get
| out, plan to stop at a cool restaurant or something
| instead of at a random supercharger location.
|
| BTW: Did you know you can bring snacks and even coffee
| with you in your car? Those don't have to be purchased on
| route. You'll even get lower prices and a wider
| selection.
| _ph_ wrote:
| _Or, if we do want to get out, plan to stop at a cool
| restaurant or something instead of at a random
| supercharger location._
|
| I would assume, as the number of electric cars rises,
| more and more restaurants see this as a business
| opportunity to offer charging while eating.
|
| _Did you know you can bring snacks and even coffee with
| you in your car?_
|
| As a German, I find the pure thought of doing so,
| horrend.
| HWR_14 wrote:
| > more and more restaurants see this as a business
| opportunity to offer charging while eating.
|
| In the US, the infrastructure costs to get fast chargers
| next to most good restaurants is prohibitive. Especially
| good restaurants that are between major cities.
|
| > As a German...
|
| No wonder you are so opposed to the idea of a 6 hour
| journey without taking a break. In the US, a road trip
| usually involves planning to minimize total stops. It's
| not uncommon to bring snacks/drinks/coffee with you in
| thermoses/coolers.
|
| (Also, nitpick, the word you want to use is "horrible"
| not "horrend" if you want to sound correct to the widest
| group of English speakers)
| newbie2020 wrote:
| Switch drivers if traveling with another
| mft_ wrote:
| This.
|
| Recently did an eight hour drive in a model 3. We stopped
| more frequently than the Tesla strictly required - once
| for a bathroom break and a quick coffee, once for food,
| and once for a more substantive charge.
|
| The nice thing was that by timing the shorter stops to
| also be at a supercharger, we did the electric equivalent
| of a 'splash and dash' - we got ~2 x 15minutes of
| charging time 'free' - as we'd stopped anyway, and the
| additional time spent to plug in is about 30 seconds.
|
| I suspect people who think that a Tesla would be
| substantively worse than an ICE car for long trips are
| either far edge-case car users... or are seriously
| underestimating them time they spend not driving during a
| long trip, and then compare that unrealistic best-case
| situation with the likely case for an EV.
| jasonwatkinspdx wrote:
| I cope with long haul driving better than nearly anyone I
| know. I still find the gas stop every 3.5 hours or so
| essential. I get out of the car, walk around a bit, get
| something to drink and a snack to eat, and it makes a
| huge impact in how I feel and how alert I am. I have no
| problem doing 18 hour days multiple days in a row so long
| as I do this.
| simonw wrote:
| We got a Rav 4 plug-in a couple of months ago. It's fantastic
| - it sometimes gives us 45 miles entirely on battery, which
| means most of our trips don't use any gas at all.
|
| When we were looking at plug-in hybrid options nothing else
| even came close in terms of mileage, which I found really
| surprising. It was our top criteria when selecting a vehicle.
| jsperx wrote:
| With respect, I just don't understand this use case. You
| focus on 42 miles as being a lot of range for most cases, but
| exclude the ~300mi range BEV because it's... not enough?
|
| Less than 5% of daily trips are over 30mi [1]. One study
| found 70+ mi trips are barely 1% of journeys [2].
|
| Also your example of LA-SF as an example of it being a real
| drag on time is instead perhaps the canonical best route, for
| Teslas at least. That's the corridor between where they are
| manufactured and their largest market, SoCal. SuperChargers
| are plentiful, including the super fast 250 kW version that
| can do 1000mi/hr (when you are at low state of charge.) It
| also has in the PCH a beautiful view that you'll _want_ to
| stop and take in.
|
| So there's no way you'll actually spend an hour out of your
| way, but if you do, why would that single hour actually be
| material, when the trip is less than 1% of your journeys? Why
| pick a PHEV for your edge cases?
|
| Rent another car for that trip. Or take a flight (SF-LA fact:
| that's also the busiest airline route in the country [3] by
| aircraft flown; second busiest by passengers moved)
|
| I get the whole "I probably won't, but I like knowing I
| could" sense of spontaneity but it just seems a waste to have
| two separate propulsion systems and the associated complexity
| just for that.
|
| [1] https://nhts.ornl.gov/vehicle-trips [2]
| https://www.solarjourneyusa.com/EVdistanceAnalysis.php [3] ht
| tps://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_busiest_passenger_ai...
| HWR_14 wrote:
| > With respect, I just don't understand this use case. You
| focus on 42 miles as being a lot of range for most cases,
| but exclude the ~300mi range BEV because it's... not
| enough?
|
| You can disagree, but it's a reasonable point
|
| Let's subdivide trips into A <42 mi, 42 mi < B < 150 mi and
| 150 mi < C. (These numbers assume no charging at the other
| end. We can tweak the actual numbers up by assuming
| charging at the other end.)
|
| We can ignore, for our analysis A. Those are 100% plug in.
| By your sources, 95-99% of trips are in the "A" column,
| depending on charging on the other side.
|
| So, you then ask "why is it material to stop for a
| supercharge on 1% of the trips". In this case, you kinda
| seem to have lost the thread. Why worry about your gas
| emissions if it's only 1% of the trips? Why advocate
| renting a second ICE car for a long trip instead of just
| having a single car where the switchover point to burning
| gas is just 250 miles shorter a trip?
|
| But really, it's how do you estimate B vs. C. If B is 99%
| of the combination, a pure EV may be best. If you think C
| is 99%, then a PHEV is best. In between, you have to make
| your choices. And those numbers can be highly personal. If
| you live 400 miles from the grandparents and (the other
| way) the city you like to visit for a weekend every month,
| it's clear you want a PHEV. If you those numbers are 100
| miles, you probably don't.
| bananabreakfast wrote:
| I would say it's not "clear" at all, you're putting the
| cart before the horse.
|
| The long range model S can drive from SF to LA on a
| single charge.
|
| Even taking into account a supercharge stop, it takes <10
| minutes to charge enough to extend your range to make it
| to grandma's house. In practice, that's faster than a
| stop at a gas station.
|
| Obviously grandma will need charging at their house to do
| this^, but if you're driving 400+ miles you're usually
| going to stay the night which means you can plug into a
| normal outlet and charge over night.
| HWR_14 wrote:
| Obviously, you can quibble about what the cutoff
| distances are. It doesn't change the fact that the vast
| majority of travel is under 42 miles.
|
| As for speed of filing up, that's insane. One undisputed
| benefit of ICE cars or PHEVs is that gasoline refill is
| (a) everywhere and (b) significantly faster per mile.
|
| Going from an empty tank to a full tank often takes less
| than 5 minutes, counting time getting on/off the highway.
| rstupek wrote:
| I own a tesla and agree with your points. The only thing
| to factor I. Is a standard outlet charge for a night
| might get you 50 miles of range
| cbmuser wrote:
| No, the reason is that Japan is working on a nation-wide
| hydrogen strategy with hydrogen produced in high-temperature
| gas-cooled reactors.
|
| >
| https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/glo...
|
| >
| https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm...
|
| Switching dozens of millions cars to battery-electric drive
| trains is not a viable strategy, especially for the logistics
| sector.
|
| Germany produces 1.6 TWh of electricity per day. Charging 50
| million electric cars with a 50-kWh-battery would require 2.5
| TWh of electricity. Even if you just charge 1/4 of those cars,
| you'd still 0,625 TWh, so almost 50% of what Germany produces
| in a single day.
|
| Germany has around 47 million passenger cars according to the
| national vehicle agency (KBA).
|
| Battery-electric cars are simply no viable solution to get
| dozens of million cars have emission-free.
|
| Let alone the ridiculous ranges of these BEVs. A regular Opel
| Astra Diesel achieves with 1000 km range with a single tank-
| fill while even the best BEVs will only achieve 400 km on
| average.
|
| A Diesel can be refilled in 5 minutes, a BEV takes at least 30
| to 60 minutes, in many cases even longer due to the lack of
| sufficient high-current power chargers.
|
| BEVs are simply a step backwards in both comfort abd usability.
| That's why they're no serious alternative and Japan's hydrogen
| approach is much more promising. Especially with passenger
| trains already running on hydrogen and German company Deutz
| just having introduced a high-power hydrogen engine.
| jagger27 wrote:
| > BEVs are simply a step backwards in both comfort abd
| usability.
|
| Comfort? Really? Quiet inside and out, no vibrations, no
| exhaust fumes, no transmission tunnels for extra leg room,
| pre-heating or cooling when plugged in at home...
| [deleted]
| _ph_ wrote:
| I don't know where your calculation went wrong, but it is
| wrong. It is very easy to calculate how much electricity
| electric cars would use, as the distance driven is precisely
| recorded. For the 45 million cars you have an average annual
| driving distance of less than 15.000km and at 20kWh/100km you
| get 135 TWh. That is about 20% more electricity production in
| Germany. Actually it will be much less, as gasoline and
| diesel fuel production and distribution uses a lot of
| electric energy too. The German grid could provide that
| amount of power today, and its at least 20 years till we have
| so many electric cars, plenty of time to add that capacity
| renewable.
|
| The biggest comfort advantage of BEV for the common user is,
| to rarely have to recharge on the road. If you plug in your
| BEV into a plain wall socket even every night, you start with
| a full charge every morning, removing the need to do on the
| road so in most cases.
|
| The Ioniq 5 already advertises recharge times in 18 minutes,
| so choose that one, if recharging on the road is common for
| you, or just buy a Tesla, which are pretty close to that and
| have the best charging network.
|
| If you want to have "green" hydrogen, you have to use 2-3x as
| much electricity and for the average consumer, hydrogen cars
| are clearly a step backwards towards BEV.
| ErikVandeWater wrote:
| Actually it will be much less, as gasoline and diesel fuel
| production and distribution uses a lot of electric energy
| too.
|
| Could you explain this part? I'm surprised the production
| of hydrocarbon would use electrical energy.
| _ph_ wrote:
| Well, the basic hydrocarbons come from the ground in the
| form of crude oil. But that has to be pumped out of the
| ground, into the tankers or through the pipelines. That
| alone adds a significant amount of electricity consumed.
| Then the refining process. That uses a lot of energy. A
| large part of that comes from burning even more oil, so
| the environment impact is huge. But it wouldn't appear on
| the electricity bill indeed. But still, the refineries
| eat up a lot of electricity too. All the pumping
| required, the big destillation facilities might be heated
| by burning oil, but the control and the operation is
| electric. And then the gasoline is pumped around even
| more. Until it is pumped into your car. All of this uses
| electricity. Finally, even the gas stations themselves
| use a lot of electricity as for illumination.
|
| I can't name precise numbers - my calculation was really
| only the worst case szenario. Some calculations claim,
| going fully electric with cars would only add about 10%
| to the electricity consumption for all the electricity
| saved in the fuel supply.
| tapoxi wrote:
| I just bought my first BEV, a VW ID4. It's a much more
| comfortable car with a far superior feel when driving then
| any of the ICE vehicles I've owned. With the range it has I
| never need to worry about charging it unless we go on a road
| trip.
|
| My wife and I are planning a road trip though, from Boston to
| Bar Harbor, Maine. After looking up the route on PlugShare I
| need to make one stop at a fast charger (about 30 minutes)
| somewhere along I-95. Hardly a big deal.
| ChemSpider wrote:
| Your home-made calculation assumes everyone(!) drives 300-400
| miles per day.
|
| If you use real usage numbers you get only an 8 percent
| increase over current energy demand.
|
| https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/electric-power-and-
| natur...
|
| > Especially with passenger trains already running on
| hydrogen
|
| Passenger trains, trucks and ships are a different story.
| SECProto wrote:
| > Passenger trains, trucks and ships are a different story.
|
| In some countries, sure. But most rail in Japan is already
| electrified - 70% of the system [1]. The remainder would be
| low ridership routes, many of which the rail companies want
| to close - but if they don't, perhaps partially battery
| operated trains would be feasible - charge at every stop
| and at intermediate locations as needed.
|
| Additionally, trucking routes in Japan are much shorter and
| slower than North America, making BEV trucks more feasible.
|
| Ships I agree with you, hydrogen is likely best way forward
|
| [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_transport_in_Japan
| pcl wrote:
| > A Diesel can be refilled in 5 minutes, a BEV takes at least
| 30 to 60 minutes
|
| Electric vehicles can be charged at home and at the office,
| thus eliminating most refueling stops.
|
| IMO this is a fantastic feature. I don't own a car currently,
| but in my previous (gas) car, I always dreaded that refueling
| stop and would typically put it off until the car was running
| on empty. The ability to fuel my car while it is parked is a
| significant benefit in my book, and certainly outweighs the
| road trip hassle of slower charges.
| epistasis wrote:
| > Charging 50 million electric cars with a 50-kWh-battery
| would require 2.5 TWh of electricity.
|
| I find much to disagree with in your comment, but this is the
| most clearly wrong part. Nobody fills up their gas tank every
| single day, and with a 50 kWh battery nobody is charging it
| fully everyday.
| pharmakom wrote:
| If most people drive 20-40 mins to work then the same back
| each day then they are well within the range limits and can
| charge every night at home. They never have to visit a gas
| station. That's actually much more usable. You shouldn't
| drive more than the range of a modern high capacity electric
| car in one go anyway; it's simply unsafe. Tesla and other
| fast chargers take 15 mins and more are being built all the
| time.
| tjr225 wrote:
| > You shouldn't drive more than the range of a modern high
| capacity electric car in one go anyway; it's simply unsafe.
|
| UHhhhhhh what? Have you never done a 10 hour drive split up
| with your spouse before? Just FYI, its not particularly
| unsafe and it happens all the time.
| ku-man wrote:
| Perhaps the OP live in Belgium. In Canada and the US 10
| hours drive is an everyday thing.
| matthewdgreen wrote:
| I drove 470 miles yesterday in a Tesla with two ~30 min
| charging stops. Honestly didn't feel great and I wouldn't
| recommend it --- but the stops really helped.
| pharmakom wrote:
| Tiredness delays reaction times more than being over the
| drink drive limit. Not having bathrooms breaks can lead
| to bladder infections etc. Stopping for a 30min break on
| a long drive is just sensible imo.
| tenfourwookie wrote:
| If this 665 Tw figure is a yearly estimate, they project 1.8
| Tw/day for 2030. That figure includes EV.
|
| https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/german-2030-power-
| use-f...
| papito wrote:
| Japan is a weird mix of old and cutting edge. It's a country that
| worships traditions, but traditions need to be regularly
| questioned and challenged. Traditions prevent you from thinking
| out of the box and trying new things.
|
| There are examples of this in Japan - they are still trying hard
| to break away from using paper faxes.
| dmix wrote:
| This really only holds if you think governments have to force
| people to use electric cars by x date to be competitive.
|
| Investing in the infrastructure needed for mass adoption of fully
| electric cars is the true national-level barrier. And that's
| going to take a long time.
|
| We've only just scratched the surface in how much charging power
| it's going to require... for ex: the vast majority of people
| living in apartment buildings will be left out without massive
| private investment in their parking lots.
|
| Otherwise I'm pretty confident that Toyota, Honda, Nissan, etc
| can figure out how to make entire fleets of fully electric cars
| when the time is right.
| coldtea wrote:
| It's a fool's errand anyway.
|
| Even if we could mandate all-electric tomorrow, it wouldn't make
| sense or be feasible for quite a while...
|
| At the moment there's neither the capacity (or materials
| available atm) to make enough batteries, nor the infrastructure
| in eletry production, delivery, and charging, nor the money lying
| around to buy them (outside the West), to replace the 1 billion
| cars all around the world in any short timespan (say 20 years)...
| iknowstuff wrote:
| That's not what a fool's errand means.
| coldtea wrote:
| Isn't it? Because the dictionary says: "a task or activity
| that has no hope of success."
|
| So let me double down: rushing to electric cars without
| having the capacity/infrastructure (and without the
| feasibility to have it even for decades) is a fool's errand.
| zizee wrote:
| It would be more of a fools errand to try and halt (or
| slow) the inevitable world-wide transition to electric
| cars.
|
| Japan were world leaders in electric drive trains with
| hybrids like the Prius. A perfect way to gracefully
| transition from ICE to all electric. This was almost 35
| years ago (1997). But they squandered that lead by
| focussing on the dead end technology of hydrogen.
|
| Why put all your eggs in the one basket?
| tuatoru wrote:
| Cars have an average usable lifespan of around 20 years
| (treated well), so those billion cars are going to be replaced
| anyway. The question is, what with?
| SimeVidas wrote:
| You could probably ask the same question about digital vs.
| physical paperwork. Japan is old-fashioned.
| ekianjo wrote:
| > Japan is old-fashioned.
|
| It's a little reductive. I'd rather say Japan is typically
| happy with local maximas instead of aiming at better, newer
| systems. Sometimes this means that Japan is stuck with obsolete
| technologies for what seems no good reason, some other times
| Japan is actually advanced in other ways that seem alien to the
| rest of the world (the rest of the World not using washlets to
| clean their butts seems old-fashioned to anyone living in
| Japan).
| hkmurakami wrote:
| they accept "digital chops" now!
| philliphaydon wrote:
| Japan only just started converting from Tape to Digital for
| advertising material for broadcasters a couple of years ago,
| while tape is almost a thing of the past for the rest of the
| world.
|
| They were so concerned about businesses whose job it is to make
| the tapes that they literally built a new business to migrate
| these workers into new jobs.
| phatfish wrote:
| I think the concern this shows for workers livelihoods is
| something that much of the rest of the world could learn
| from. The implementation seems a bit inefficient though.
| danjac wrote:
| So is the US, it's like travelling back in time when you go
| over there and people still use checks and paper money.
| azemetre wrote:
| Kinda curious where you live because I haven't seen nearly
| anyone use cash in my immediate family or friend group in
| nearly a decade.
|
| There's only a few people I know, one is an aunt who is over
| 70 years old and the other is a stripper.
|
| Everyone else I know just uses a credit or debit card. Even
| buying drugs people will just opt to use venmo or cashapp
| rather than going to an ATM.
|
| I will say my family lives near large metro areas. Maybe in
| more rural cities people are more likely to use cash?
| C19is20 wrote:
| Legal drugs, or illegal (in japan)?
| majjam wrote:
| I'd argue there are advantages to both cheques and paper
| money over digital. Your purchases can't be as easily tracked
| if you use paper money for example.
| Rd6n6 wrote:
| I use and prefer paper money every chance I get. Digital
| cash makes it far harder to track spending and stick to a
| budget
| [deleted]
| decafninja wrote:
| Isn't Japan the place (in)famous for still using paper money
| everywhere?
| Rd6n6 wrote:
| Why is it infamous to use paper money besides during a
| pandemic? It's the only way to buy something without being
| tracked and profiled, and it makes budgeting easier. You
| can actually exchange it without an intermediary taking a
| cut or deciding to block the transaction
| stkdump wrote:
| Crazy to think that in my childhood Japan was seen as this
| futuristic nation with stuff like HDTV decades ahead of the
| rest of the world.
| cbmuser wrote:
| Yes, because a comprehensive hydrogen strategy with the plan to
| produce hydrogen in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors is
| "old fashioned".
|
| >
| https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/glo...
|
| >
| https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm...
| tuatoru wrote:
| I think you were being sarcastic, but it actually is. Nuclear
| is so 20th century.
|
| Doing it with PV and grid-scale batteries, now...
|
| (Note: large amounts of electrolysed hydrogen are definitely
| needed in order to replace methane in fertilizer production
| and coal in steelmaking. No argument about the need to make
| hydrogen!)
| imtringued wrote:
| Fuel cells were all the rage when I was a kid. You saw them
| on TV all the time. I don't have to see EVs on TV, they are
| absolutely everywhere nowadays.
| belorn wrote:
| > The rush into electric vehicles has been spurred in part by
| plans in China, in European nations and elsewhere to either
| mandate higher sales of electric cars in the coming years or to
| ban gasoline-burning vehicles.
|
| > Electric cars, Mr. Toyoda pointed out, are only as clean as the
| electricity that powers them and the factories where they are
| built. Japan, Toyota's second-biggest market, plans to go carbon
| neutral by 2050, but as long as it continues to rely on fossil
| fuels to generate electricity, he said, the vehicles'
| environmental benefits will remain a mirage.
|
| It should be noted that no country are planning to ban fossil
| fuel-burning power plants. The "carbon neutral" plans seems to be
| all plans by a few countries to export more renewable energy to
| surrounding countries than their own consumption of fossil fuels.
| The intention is still to continue rely on fossil fuels to
| generate electricity.
|
| For countries like my own that have a set date for both banning
| the sale of new gasoline-burning vehicles and a date for "carbon
| neutral", we need to set a date where no new fossil fueled power
| plants may be built. Preferable the same date. If there are no
| sales of new ones then the old ones will die off after a while.
| lazyjones wrote:
| >> Electric cars, Mr. Toyoda pointed out, are only as clean as
| the electricity that powers them and the factories where they
| are built
|
| The total disregard for the impact of ICE on their direct
| surroundings, people who breathe in the exhaust fumes in nearly
| undiluted form, is very problematic in my opinion. But it's
| very common these days to focus entirely on carbon emissions.
| goodcanadian wrote:
| I am replying more to the line you quoted than to you, but even
| when the electricity is generated by fossil fuels, it is still
| generally more efficient than burning it in your car. The
| reason being that the power plant is always operating near peak
| efficiency (often over 50%) whereas the car engine rarely runs
| at peak efficiency (often under 30% on average), especially
| when in stop and go traffic. The electric car also benefits
| over time from improvements in the power plant mix. While you
| may be technically correct that no country yet has a plausible
| concrete plan to get to 0% fossil fuels in electric generation,
| most countries seem to be aiming to greatly increase their
| percentage of renewable generation.
| belorn wrote:
| It is a fair point to make a comparison to the pollution
| generated from cars vs fossil fueled power plants and try to
| determine which one is the worst. Cars has catalytic
| converters, filters, and where I live a 10% minimum ethanol
| for gas and 26% for bio-diesel in diesel. Compared to the oil
| power plants that exist a few towns away and I don't know how
| well the number stacks up.
|
| As an percentage of the full energy grid, I suspect the
| electric car is better than nothing in this country. If
| someone is interested in number crunching it would make for
| an interesting read to see how much the actual difference is
| for a new electric car compared to a new IC car, especially
| in other countries like Germany that have close to 100% wind
| capacity in optimal conditions but on average still burn a
| lot of fossil fuel.
| zizee wrote:
| It is not really a fair point to make, as it is really easy
| to search for numbers on this.
|
| https://www.energycouncil.com.au/analysis/evs-are-they-
| reall...
|
| Added to this is the fact it is certainly easier to clean
| up a small number of dirty power plants, than millions of
| portable ones.
|
| https://duckduckgo.com/?q=power+plant+efficiency+vs+car
| ekianjo wrote:
| > The reason being that the power plant is always operating
| near peak efficiency (often over 50%)
|
| You make it sound that transporting energy incurs no loss.
| goodcanadian wrote:
| I did oversimplify to be sure, but . . .
|
| I suspect, though I don't know for sure, that the losses
| are significantly less than what is incurred in refining
| and transporting gasoline/petrol.
| mcny wrote:
| Your statement makes me wonder - how much does petroleum
| actually cost? I mean if we could somehow ignore the
| rent, royalties, and direct taxes, what is the true cost
| of a gallon of gasoline in terms of capital, goods, and
| labor? Or is this too variable depending on source of
| petroleum, refinery, and so on? If so, what is the low
| end and what is the high end?
| wiredfool wrote:
| Break even on crude oil varies by field and country, but
| it ranges from the 10/bbl (Saudi) to 150+/bbl (tar
| sands).
|
| Transport costs are going to vary depending on the mode
| and distance -- pipelines are cheap, ships less so but
| work long distance, and rail is more expensive, and
| trucking/flying it is even more.
|
| Refinery costs are going to vary depending on the quality
| of the input, what's the output mix, how much cracking is
| required, and the amount of impurities like sulphur.
|
| So, huge variation all across the board. Best places to
| get real numbers would be to look at the numbers for
| publicly traded oil Companies that do the full stack.
| hypertele-Xii wrote:
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_power_transmission#L
| o...
|
| Looks to be on the order of a few percent on national
| scale.
|
| Gasoline also has to be transported to fuel stations.
| WalterBright wrote:
| There are also losses in charging the batteries.
| matthewdgreen wrote:
| One way to evaluate this is to consider MPGe costs, which
| calculate the number of miles a vehicle can drive for the
| same price as an average gallon of gas. My Tesla M3 gets
| between 100 and 140 measured in all kinds of driving
| (with 147 the EPA measurement.) A BMW 325i gets 21/32
| MPG. This comparison is nice because it includes a lot of
| these hidden costs like battery and delivery and
| electrical transmission losses. Obviously it doesn't
| include implicit and explicit subsidies.
| varjag wrote:
| OK, if we're into that: producing a litre of petrol takes
| and additional litre of raw oil burned up at the refinery.
| tzs wrote:
| A couple more advantages for the power plant:
|
| * The power plant doesn't have to move. You can attach all
| kinds of stuff to it to capture its emissions and do
| something with them other than discharge them into the
| atmosphere.
|
| You are much more limited when it comes to doing that for a
| car engine. You have weight, volume, size, and power
| constraints on car attachments that you do not have on power
| plant attachments.
|
| * You can build power plants far away from high population
| areas. This doesn't help with emissions like CO2 that are
| harmful no matter where they are emitted, but for various
| noxious emissions that harm people who breath them it
| matters.
|
| Car engines emit their noxious emissions in the cities in the
| midst of large populations.
| clomond wrote:
| And to further add, electrified energy end use cases can
| benefit from the decreasing costs of solar and wind as
| prices drop and deployment increases overtime. An ICE
| vehicle can not get any cleaner or more efficient after it
| rolls off the lot!
| siliconunit wrote:
| yep having a centralized pollution source is much more
| controllable and optimizable, a breakthrough in emission
| filtering techology and in a short time span it can be
| effectively implemented vs decades long new cars renewal
| cycle... although replacing a tiny percentage of roofs with
| solar tiles would make for a robust and smooth transition in
| sunny countries at least..
| kaybe wrote:
| Many countries have plans for coal phase-out, including dates.
| There could be more, of course, and tighter timelines, but it's
| there.
|
| Considering the much higher costs of gas and oil in comparison
| (and compared to renewable) this might just be enough to get
| out of using fossil energy for most power production. (Except
| maybe to cover peaks.)
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_phase-out
|
| PS: For anyone able to read German, the German article has more
| in-depth information in some points:
|
| https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kohleausstieg
| belorn wrote:
| I would like if it were the case that fossil fuels where
| being phased out overall. A steady decline that matched the
| existing phase out of fossil fuels in the transport sector
| would be excellent.
|
| The reason why I don't think that is the case is several.
| electricitymap.org is one, which goes brown when the wind is
| calm and green during gales. As much capacity that renewables
| has, when they don't produce we see the same demand being
| fulfilled with fossil fueled power.
|
| A second reason is subsidize numbers in EU. The amount of tax
| money being spent on fossil fuels are one of the more
| depressing aspects of the energy sector, and seemingly
| counter-productive to the political message. There also seems
| to be a strategy that when there is an increase in the
| capacity of renewable energy, the amount of tax money being
| spent on grid stability get increased. That money then goes
| directly to keep fossil fueled power plants operational
| between dips in the availability of renewable energy. That
| subsidy is also a reason why the higher costs of gas and oil
| does not result in stations being phased out.
|
| If there was a date where new construction of fossil fueled
| power plants was to be banned, the energy sector would have a
| finite period to find a solution to the grid stability
| problem that does not include fossil fuels. The only
| incentive without it is government interest to pay less
| subsidies, and companies desire to undercut the current
| suppliers for grid stability. I doubt however either is very
| good at creating the change we need at the speed that global
| warming require.
| ajuc wrote:
| > It should be noted that no country are planning to ban fossil
| fuel-burning power plants.
|
| There are EU-wide plans of phasing out coal powerplants by
| 2030, and it's ahead of schedule so far. "Half of Europe's 324
| coal-fuelled power plants have either closed or announced a
| retirement date before 2030" [1]
|
| EU is doing this mostly by financial incentives not by outright
| ban on coal, but the effect is the same. Recently a new block
| of coal-fired powerplant in Ostroleka, Poland was cancelled and
| demolished, because it makes no economical sense to build new
| coal powerplants.
|
| Of course coal isn't the only fossil fuel, but it's by far the
| most important when it comes to powerplants. Some gas
| powerplants will probably remain as a way to balance electrical
| networks during peaks (because they can be throttled faster
| than other types of powerplants), but it's relatively minor
| percentage.
|
| https://www.euractiv.com/section/climate-environment/news/eu...
| spideymans wrote:
| > It should be noted that no country are planning to ban fossil
| fuel-burning power plants.
|
| We need a bit more nuance than this. Ontario, Canada hasn't
| strictly banned fuel-burning plants, but they've come damn near
| close to it. Their electric grid is 96% emissions free.
| pletsch wrote:
| Thank God for the Bruce.
| shadilay wrote:
| I never understood Japans reluctance to adopt EV's given the
| country's lack of fossil fuel production.
| Animats wrote:
| "Japanese automakers are "hanging on by their fingernails," he
| added, and if Japan mandated a shift to all-electric vehicles --
| which have fewer components and are easier to manufacture -- it
| could cost millions of jobs and destroy a whole ecosystem of auto
| parts suppliers." - Toyota CEO.
|
| They're terrified. China has all those low-cost electric city
| cars.
| 4e530344963049 wrote:
| https://trimread.org/articles/326
| Magnusmaster wrote:
| The world isn't rushing towards electric cars. USA, Europe and
| China are. The rest of the world isn't switching to electric any
| time soon, because electric cars are expensive and billions need
| to be invested in infrastructure to make them viable.
| lastofthemojito wrote:
| I might even say "Urban/Coastal USA, Northern/Western Europe
| and China" instead of USA, Europe and China. I expect to see
| the USA and Euro auto markets to become more fractured as
| climate change deniers, big government resisters, and just
| folks who romanticize the "good ol days" continue to buy ICE
| cars.
|
| Heck, it's already fragmented - I just looked at the new car
| inventory for an LA-area Chevy dealer. They have 65 ICE
| pickups, 11 ICE SUVs, 7 ICE sports cars and 29 EVs, so about
| 25% EVs, well above the national average. Then I looked at a
| rural South Dakota Chevy dealer's inventory - 11 ICE pickups, 7
| ICE SUVs and that's it. Zero EVs on offer there.
|
| It might not be fractured in a regulatory sense, just that
| manufacturers typically sell their EVs in one sort of place and
| their gas-powered vehicles in another, and dealers only stock
| what they know they'll sell.
| tuatoru wrote:
| Billions would need to be invested to replace and expand fossil
| fuel infrastructure too. More billions would be needed for
| hydrogen.
|
| It's just a matter of who gets the government
| subsidies/favorable tax treatment, cynically.
|
| When batteries get cheap enough and PV arrays have been
| sufficiently tropicalized, there will be some switching in the
| rest of the world. It'd happen faster without fossil fuel
| interests being able to get the subsidies, though.
| newbie2020 wrote:
| Thanks. Electric cars cause so much stress cause you've got to
| actively manage the battery life and where you're going. That is
| an additional stressor I don't need in my life
| erpellan wrote:
| When the first ICE cars arrived they had to buy fuel from
| pharmacies and general stores and probably had the exact same
| anxiety. Electricity is ubiquitous. Pretty soon charging points
| will be everywhere, with the added bonus that you start every
| morning with a full 250+ miles of range.
| morpheos137 wrote:
| Electric cars are dumb. There I said it. The NY times seems to
| have gaslit itself into thinking its opinions are reality.
|
| Battery power cars are not new technology. They are over 100
| years old.
| speedgoose wrote:
| The first paragraph of the article is wrong. The first mass
| produced EV of this generation is not the Nissan Leaf but the
| Mitsubishi I-Miev.
| amgutier wrote:
| I was also surprised to see no mention of the (not quite mass
| produced) 1990s RAV4 EV
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_RAV4_EV
| HWR_14 wrote:
| I imagine that a big reason is that it's harder to charge enough
| plug ins in Japan. Japan produces 60% the electricity per person
| as the US and has areas with huge densities already. Going to a
| plug in system vs. a hybrid may not make sense in Tokyo. And then
| it becomes one of those "it won't work here, but when I think
| about it I forget to include the word here".
| softwaredoug wrote:
| I love my 96 Miata, and I keep saying the next car I want is an
| electric Miata. I can't think of a more "no-duh" car to be
| electric given its light weight... But maybe this explains why it
| hasn't happened yet.
|
| EDIT:
|
| TIL - next Miata generation to be electrified, sadly "by 2030"
|
| https://www.motor1.com/news/515992/next-gen-miata-hybrid-ele...
| pcdoodle wrote:
| Miata is the perfect car for electrification. Most sports car
| drivers would be okay with 200 mile range (less batteries) in
| exchange for light weight. I think the most I ever put on mine
| in a day (NA/R) was 120 miles, when parking it for the winter.
| thrwyoilarticle wrote:
| In the UK you have to travel to Scotland or Wales for the
| best roads. A small range makes that a lot more difficult.
| bradlys wrote:
| Problem is that sports car drivers don't drive their cars
| with the expected EPA mpg.
|
| My car is rated for 18/25, I barely get 16mpg and I am still
| on the freeway quite a bit. I'm less aggressive than I used
| to be when I was getting 11-12mpg.
| Rumudiez wrote:
| Not for everyone - I like to take one of my motorcycles or my
| sports car out for drives 4-5 days a week and never drive
| less than 100 miles at a time, all back roads and never on
| the freeway. That means fueling up every time I ride my
| Ducati with its ridiculously small fuel tank.
| thrwyoilarticle wrote:
| The expense and weight of batteries mean it makes more sense to
| start at the bigger, more luxurious end of the market and work
| down. It's also easier to sell a cheap car from a brand with a
| luxury image than an expensive car from a brand with a value
| image - hence all the halo hypercars that make a loss.
| iwintermute wrote:
| there're conversions kits: https://youtu.be/VZws7kE3U5k
| cbmuser wrote:
| Because Japan has a comprehensive hydrogen strategy with the plan
| to produce the hydrogen in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors.
|
| > https://www.meti.go.jp/english/policy/energy_environment/glo...
|
| > https://www.jaea.go.jp/04/o-arai/en/research/research_03.htm...
|
| For that matter, Japan brought its HTGR back online.
|
| > https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Japanese-gas-coo...
| _ph_ wrote:
| Why not charge electric cars directly with the output of those
| reactors? Even if you get to higher efficiencies with the
| electrolysis, the overhead for handling and transporting
| hydrogen remains.
| Youden wrote:
| FCEV (fuel-cell electric vehicles) and BEV (battery-electric
| vehicles) are a tradeoff. I found [0] from an FCEV proponent
| to be really interesting (it's hard to find any comparisons
| that aren't obviously biased, if anyone can suggest one, I'd
| like to read it).
|
| My overall feeling is that BEVs and FCEVs will _both_ be used
| in the future. BEVs have some compelling advantages for
| short-distance travel like intercity commuting (like being
| able to charge them at home) while FCEVs have compelling
| advantages for long-distance travel, like higher range and
| efficiency and faster refueling.
|
| One interesting point from that report is that it addresses
| the widely-quoted point ([1] for example) that generator ->
| wheel efficiency for FCEVs is lower. While this is true, it
| stops just short of the metric we really care about:
| generator -> miles driven efficiency.
|
| A BEV has to spend a lot of its stored energy just moving its
| batteries around, while an FCEV uses a relatively light
| cylinder, so when you look at efficiency in terms of W/miles
| driven, the reduced weight of an FCEV can render it overall
| more efficient than a BEV.
|
| FCEVs are also a relatively young technology compared to
| batteries, so there's likely to be some substantial
| efficiency improvements still on the table.
|
| [0]: https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/2014/03/f9/th
| omas...
|
| [1]: https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/stories/2019/08/hyd
| roge...
| erpellan wrote:
| Fuel cell and battery electric car R&D are about the same
| age. Both technologies were actively explored from the
| 1990s. For personal vehicles BEV is hands down better. The
| next generation of BEVs charge at double the voltage of the
| current crop, with charge rates of over 350kW. This brings
| the 20%-80% charge time down to less than 15 minutes, or
| about the time it takes to use the facilities and drink a
| coffee on a long journey. And you can refill the car every
| night at home on super cheap electricity rates (a major
| advantage of BEV), so only on actual driving-all-day-long
| road trips do you ever need to charge during the day.
| bryanlarsen wrote:
| A Mirai is heavier than a Model 3, so that theoretical
| advantage is not realized in practice.
| specialist wrote:
| Why is the Mirai heavier? Approx 1920kg vs 1611kg
| (depending on model, year, range).
|
| I'd expect the business part of FCEV to be lighter. The
| tanks, fuel cell stacks, converter, etc vs a big ass Li-
| ion battery.
|
| My first guess is the Mirai frame's safety features were
| double sized. Being the first product to market, Toyota
| was probably extremely risk adverse.
|
| I haven't found any Mirai teardowns (a la Munro & Assoc,
| AvE).
|
| I also couldn't find any weight comparisons of Tesla and
| Toyota electric motors.
|
| What would a Model 3 with FCEV look like? Replace BEV
| with FCEV, keeping Tesla's motors.
|
| We've seen that Tesla is obsessed with weight reduction
| and simplification. Like the Toyota of yesteryear. I'd
| love for Toyota to do it again for FCEV.
| Youden wrote:
| The Mirai has an EPA range of 402mi [0] and the Model 3
| long-range has 353mi [1], so it isn't a straight
| comparison.
|
| And FCEVs are still in their infancy. There are only 6
| production FCEVs so far [2] with very few charging
| stations built yet. They haven't reached anywhere near
| the same level of maturity as BEVs. Just compare the
| first list [2] to the second list [3]. What was the
| available range when BEVs only had 6 production vehicles
| on the market?
|
| So I think it's more accurate to say the theoretical
| advantage hasn't _yet_ been realized in practice.
|
| [0]: https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/fcv_sbs.shtml
|
| [1]: https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/2021-tesla-
| model-3-long-ran...
|
| [2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_fuel_cell_vehi
| cles#Pro...
|
| [3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_production_bat
| tery_ele...
| _ph_ wrote:
| _FCEV (fuel-cell electric vehicles) and BEV (battery-
| electric vehicles) are a tradeoff. I found [0] from an FCEV
| proponent to be really interesting (it 's hard to find any
| comparisons that aren't obviously biased, if anyone can
| suggest one, I'd like to read it)._
|
| I have quickly glance through it, but some of the
| assumptions seem to be pretty wrong. If I look in Fig. 4,
| at a range of 300 miles, this is what the Tesla Model 3
| offers. The Model 3 is about 1800-1900kg, so much less than
| shown in the graphic, and the only FCEV in that range, the
| Mirai, is even heavier than the Tesla at the same range. So
| the weight for the FCEV is just plain wrong. And yes, the
| pure hydrogen tank is much lighter than a battery, but you
| have to add the weight of the fuel cell and the buffer
| battery as well as a lot of piping towards it. While
| hydrogen certainly has the edge in for much larger storage
| capacities, I can't see an advantage for car sized tanks.
| Said Mirai also has the same range as a Model 3. Not
| mentioned is the space requirement: a Mirai has less
| interior space than a Model 3, because the Tanks have quite
| a volume and have to by cylindrical shaped. A battery can
| basically have any shape desired.
|
| _My overall feeling is that BEVs and FCEVs will _both_ be
| used in the future. BEVs have some compelling advantages
| for short-distance travel like intercity commuting (like
| being able to charge them at home) while FCEVs have
| compelling advantages for long-distance travel, like higher
| range and efficiency and faster refueling._
|
| With the current state of technology, I don't see any
| disadvantage for BEV. Recharging on the road is much less
| frequent than refueling of a FCEV, because you can charge a
| BEV at any outlet. Especially when parking over night.
| Considering that, the recharge time at a fast charge is
| only mildly slower, Hyundai ist at 18 minutes already. The
| quoted fast refuel times assume that the fuel station has
| full pressure, which might not be the case if another car
| just refueld there. And why should a FCEV be any more
| efficient than a BEV? Currently, assuming it would use
| "green" hydrogen, it takes about 3-4x as much eletricity.
|
| _that generator - > wheel efficiency for FCEVs is lower.
| While this is true, it stops just short of the metric we
| really care about: generator -> miles driven efficiency._
|
| Sorry, what should be the difference between those terms?
|
| _A BEV has to spend a lot of its stored energy just moving
| its batteries around, while an FCEV uses a relatively light
| cylinder, so when you look at efficiency in terms of W
| /miles driven, the reduced weight of an FCEV can render it
| overall more efficient than a BEV._
|
| No, the weight of the car has only a neglible contribution
| to the energy used for driving. For driving at constat
| speed anyway not - at highway speeds the air resistance is
| the major facter. Only when in a stop-and-go situation, the
| weight makes a difference, but there the recuperation of
| the BEV gets back a lot of the energy.
|
| And in practical terms: the Mirai weights more than the
| Model 3, where is even the possibility for a gain there?
| And the almost-obese EQS from Mercedes seems to be more
| efficient than the Model 3 even thanks to a really low air-
| resistance. Ironically, its larger size does help with air
| resistance.
|
| _FCEVs are also a relatively young technology compared to
| batteries, so there 's likely to be some substantial
| efficiency improvements still on the table._
|
| Some for sure. But the big problem is for example the
| energy used to compress the hydrogen. This is plain
| physics, how much energy you have to spend to compress a
| gas. And currently, FCEV use about 3x as much energy as
| comparable electric cars, I don't see where they should
| catch up with that.
| Youden wrote:
| While I won't debate the facutal differences between the
| Model 3 and the Mirai, I don't think it's right to judge
| the potential of FCEV vs. BEV based on the cars on the
| market today.
|
| BEVs are a relatively mature technology at this point.
| Tens of thousands (hundreds? millions?) of BEVs have been
| sold, there are many production BEV models and they've
| received decades of research at this point.
|
| FCEVs are still in their infancy. There are only 6
| production FCEVs and the technology hasn't received
| nearly the same level of R&D as BEVs.
|
| Comparing the present-day Mirai to the present-day Model
| 3 is like comparing the Tesla Roaster to an early Prius.
| If you'd done that, you'd have concluded that BEVs are
| too expensive and impractical to ever be viable and that
| hybrids are the future.
|
| Give the FCEVs some time and they'll get closer to their
| potential.
| _ph_ wrote:
| The Mirai just has been replaced by a new version, so it
| is not a first generation car any more. And the
| fundamental problems of FCEV can't be addressed so
| easily. The tanks are huge and you cannot make them
| smaller. This means, space in a FCEV is more constrained.
| Nor can you change the energy consumption of the hydrogen
| delivery much.
|
| But the fundamental question now becomes: considering the
| performance of the electric cars you can already buy,
| what is the incentive to invest billions into FCEV
| development and even more so into fuel stations and
| distribution? Especially, as there isn't much green
| hydrogen anytime soon?
| stubish wrote:
| > Because Japan has a comprehensive hydrogen strategy with the
| plan to produce the hydrogen in high-temperature gas-cooled
| reactors.
|
| There is a pretty good chance you have that backwards, and the
| reason Japan has a comprehensive hydrogen strategy is due to
| lobbying of their car companies. Australia seems to have a
| number of hydrogen initiatives being discussed, and most seem
| tied to Japanese companies.
| bryanlarsen wrote:
| I don't see why Toyota or Honda should panic or rush now. They
| have a reputation for reliability that will ensure that when they
| do introduce electric vehicles they will sell well. They have
| experience with hybrid vehicles, which are essentially electric
| vehicles, so are unlikely to screw up the design. They have a
| reputation for logistical mastery, which appears to be a major
| challenge for other manufacturers during the transition.
| Presumably they have a good relationship with Panasonic, the
| premier battery supplier.
|
| So why jump in now and fight over 3% of the market, when they can
| jump in a few years time when it's a bigger market?
|
| If they plan on jumping in in volume in a few years they need to
| be securing battery supply now, but that wouldn't necessarily be
| visible to us.
| foxfluff wrote:
| Otoh there are locations where the share of electrics is much
| higher. Norway: "In total, 17,323 new passenger plug-in
| electric cars were registered in June, which is 128% more than
| a year ago and 84.9% of the total car market!"
| https://insideevs.com/news/517969/norway-plugin-car-sales-ju...
|
| I can't say what's the best business strategy for auto makers
| but I feel like getting a strong foothold of the electric
| market early on could prove to be a good long term plan.
|
| And a lot of people, including me, are seriously considering an
| electric for their next car. My boss just got an electric. To
| me it seems like now would be a good time to have good products
| on the market.
|
| I'm looking at the Honda e but for its range & price, it looks
| more like a .. prototype/halo car than a real product for the
| consumer market.
| TheParkShark wrote:
| By waiting on the sidelines they risk being left behind by
| expanding technologies that they're not a part of because they
| don't believe in them like other companies.
|
| While a car is a car, an full BEV is not pretty much the same
| as an ICE vehicle. This is the same mistake that Toyota and
| others seem to be making.
| helsinkiandrew wrote:
| https://web.archive.org/web/20210822084045/https://www.nytim...
| zizee wrote:
| It amazes me how many naysayers are always on these threads about
| electric vehicles.
|
| It seems to me that the transition is inevitable. Slowly but
| surely electric cars are becoming cheaper and more capable. It is
| really hard to imagine that they will not soon be cheaper than
| ICE cars.
|
| But they just seem so much more convenient and nicer to be around
| that diesel and petrol cars. No more breathing in exhaust fumes!
| No more petrol stations! Less servicing!
|
| For a site that supposedly caters to forward thinking
| technologists, there sure are a lot of people refusing to see the
| obvious conclusion to the current trend.
| ffggvv wrote:
| yeah just breathing in the coal plumes used to be power the
| increased load on the already unstable energy grid
| jankotek wrote:
| Japan has very good public transport, and does not really need
| cars.
|
| In america the question is why invest in carbon based
| transportation? It is "obsolete technology"! In japan cars are
| "obsolete"!
| kuroguro wrote:
| While US has a lot more cars, per capita Japan isn't that far
| behind:
|
| https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_vehicles_...
| wodenokoto wrote:
| Nobody drives in Tokyo. There's too much traffic.
| pmyjavec wrote:
| Less than half the population of Japan lives in Tokyo.
| cehrlich wrote:
| Those two sentences seem a bit contradictory
| josephjrobison wrote:
| "Nobody goes there anymore, it's too crowded." -Yogi Berra
| jokoon wrote:
| well if traffic is generated by 1% of the population and if
| that traffic is already very crowded, it's almost true.
| that would mean the streets are very narrow.
| pb82 wrote:
| It's a quote from Futurama:
| https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KIrlZSYB6tE
|
| (Nobody drove in New York, there was too much traffic)
| remir wrote:
| That's the joke.
| IkmoIkmo wrote:
| Not really.. Japan ranks among the top 10-15 countries in terms
| of cars per capita.
| asutekku wrote:
| Totally inaccurate. While yes, you can get in densely populated
| areas almost anywhere near jy with a public transport, in
| countryside more and more lines are being stopped and car is a
| necessity
| qubyte wrote:
| This isn't correct. My family live in the countryside and
| they're more than an hour drive from the nearest rail station.
| There are buses but only a couple a day and they take a very
| long time. Their situation is pretty common.
| tluyben2 wrote:
| Yeah, usually people who talk about good public transport in
| any country are talking about the (big) cities (probably the
| only place they visited).
|
| In cities in Portugal and Spain the public transport is good
| as well, but I lived outside those in both countries and you
| have no chance without a car if you have any urgency to get
| somewhere. A bus once a day (early morning) to pick up and
| once (early evening) to drop off; so if you rely on public
| transport, you lose 1 entire day if you go shopping.
| ransom1538 wrote:
| The 1986 Honda Civic: Regular Gasoline 46 combined city/highway
| MPG 42 city 51 highway 2.2 gals/100 miles. We have come so far.
| lol.
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