[HN Gopher] Scientists find an effective solution for the three-...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Scientists find an effective solution for the three-body problem
        
       Author : olvy0
       Score  : 291 points
       Date   : 2021-08-14 06:22 UTC (16 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (phys.technion.ac.il)
 (TXT) w3m dump (phys.technion.ac.il)
        
       | antognini wrote:
       | Here is a link to the arXiv version of the paper:
       | https://arxiv.org/abs/2011.00010
       | 
       | Incidentally, I used to work in dynamics and Hagai is great to
       | work with. To give you a sense of him, I went to a conference on
       | dynamics that he organized about six years ago, and he opened it
       | with the following story:
       | 
       | Many years ago, the philosopher Nasreddin was on his farm looking
       | out into the distance and saw some people approaching. He had
       | heard that there were bandits in the area and became afraid that
       | they would come, beat him, and steal all his things. So Nasreddin
       | ran away. As he ran, he came to a graveyard, and there he found
       | an open grave. In case the bandits followed him, he decided to
       | take off all his clothes, get in the grave, and pretend to be
       | dead.
       | 
       | It turned out that the men were not bandits, but were Nasreddin's
       | friends. They saw him run off and wondered where he was going and
       | so followed him. As they were walking through the graveyard, they
       | came upon the open grave and saw Nasreddin lying there naked. So
       | they asked him, "Nasreddin, why are you lying in this grave with
       | all your clothes off?"
       | 
       | Nasreddin opened his eyes and saw it was his friends, and
       | replied, "My friends, there are some questions which have no
       | answers. All I can tell you is that I am here because of you, and
       | you are here because of me."
        
         | konschubert wrote:
         | I don't get it. Is it just meant to be funny or is there a
         | deeper message?
        
           | dandelany wrote:
           | Here's my reading of it: when speaking about dynamical
           | systems with several interdependent moving parts, humans are
           | fond of asking "why" questions and looking for simple
           | narratives in such systems where satisfying answers may not
           | exist.
           | 
           | For example, imagine a three-body planetary system which
           | exists in a pseudo-stable configuration for millions of
           | years, until suddenly one of the planets gets slung off on a
           | wild orbit and ejected from the system. A layman might be
           | inclined to ask, "whoa, that's weird, why did _that_
           | happen?!" while the physicist will reply "All I can say is
           | that planet A is where it is because of planets B  & C, and B
           | & C are where they are because of A."
        
             | antognini wrote:
             | I like that! The way I interpreted it when hearing it at
             | the conference he was saying that we were all here at the
             | conference because he had organized it, but he was there
             | because we were all there to talk about our research. But
             | the great thing about a good parable is that there are
             | endless interpretations. :)
        
           | arvidkahl wrote:
           | I think this might be about the interdependency of these
           | actions. Both lead to each other. None would happen without
           | the other.
           | 
           | Wrapped in a funny story.
        
           | OnlineGladiator wrote:
           | https://youtu.be/_eRRab36XLI
        
           | jareklupinski wrote:
           | if you have trouble telling your friends from your foes at a
           | distance
           | 
           | buy binoculars
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | snowAbstraction wrote:
       | The photo of Professor Hagai Perets (Left) and Ph.D. student
       | Yonadav Barry Ginat seems to have them in their native
       | environment: the university's Science and Math library. If you
       | zoom you'll see the Math and Science topics listed on the card
       | for the book shelves behind them.
        
         | lmilcin wrote:
         | Trust me, mathematicians do not sit in libraries.
        
           | archibaldJ wrote:
           | they walk and wander around ;)
           | 
           | https://jorgenveisdal.medium.com/the-mathematical-nomad-
           | paul...
           | 
           | https://medium.com/@vovakuzmenkov/poincares-
           | creativity-8e31d...
        
             | maxwells-daemon wrote:
             | Fond memories of running into my math professor walking
             | around campus at 3am...
        
             | lmilcin wrote:
             | I am sure that there is at least one mathematician who
             | likes to sit in libraries.
             | 
             | But in general there is nothing for a mathematician to do
             | in a library. It is not like you need access to large
             | number of hard to get books. And if you need access to a
             | book, you probably need a lot of time with that book.
             | 
             | That is if you even need books at all.
             | 
             | Even when I studied theoretical math I wouldn't use books
             | at all. Problems tend to be easily formulated. Once I
             | understood the problem I would walk around, lie on the
             | couch, try stuff on the whiteboard or in my notepad, run
             | experiments on Matlab, meet with friends to discuss the
             | problem over coffee or beer and so on.
             | 
             | I don't remember spending time in a library or hearing
             | about anybody spending time in a library.
        
               | archibaldJ wrote:
               | I was looking around but couldn't find the piece my prof
               | sent me 5 years ago.
               | 
               | It was a piece from a mathematician's diary about walking
               | and coming up with proofs. There is something about a
               | changing enviroment and being on the move that's very
               | fascinating to me.
               | 
               | I guess that one mathematician who likes to sit in
               | libraries probably sits there just for sitting there ;)
        
               | joaorico wrote:
               | Alain Connes, Fields medalist, talks about going on walks
               | while reading math books in a particular way (and on how
               | a mathematician works and should read a book) [0]:
               | 
               | "To understand any subject, above all, a mathematician
               | SHOULD NOT pick up a book and read it.
               | 
               | It is the worst error!
               | 
               | No, a mathematician needs to look in a book, and to read
               | it backwards. Then, he sees the statement of a theorem.
               | And, well, he goes for a walk. And, above all, he does
               | not look at the book.
               | 
               | He says, "How the hell could I prove this?"
               | 
               | He goes for his walk, he takes two hours ... He comes
               | back and he has thought about how he would have proved
               | it. He looks at the book. The proof is 10 pages long. 99%
               | of the proof, pff, doesn't matter.
               | 
               | Tak!, here's the idea!
               | 
               | But this idea, on paper, it looks the same as everything
               | else that is written. But there is a place, where this
               | little thing is written, that will immediately translate
               | in his brain through a complete change of mental image
               | that will make the proof.
               | 
               | So, this is how we operate. Well, at least some of us.
               | Math is not learned in a book, it cannot be read from a
               | book. There is something active about it, tremendously
               | active.
               | 
               | [...]
               | 
               | It's a personal, individual work."
               | 
               | [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9qlqVEUgdgo
        
               | yarky wrote:
               | Walking helps thinking, that is a well known fact, which
               | I also learned from a mathematician who kept sharing in
               | class how many problems he solved while walking his dog.
               | He would always start his phrases with "while I was
               | walking my dog I realized ...".
               | 
               | There seems to be a lot of research on this topic btw.
        
               | todd8 wrote:
               | I had one famous professor, Gian-Carlo Rota, whose office
               | was covered in stacks of books and journals; I believe
               | that he was an editor of an AMS publication at the time.
               | The next year I had a professor for a class in non-
               | commutative ring theory (I sadly can't remember his name
               | off the top of my head; I do remember that he was a
               | pleasant and brilliant person.), his office was like a
               | monk's room. There was a desk upon which rested a single
               | sheet of paper with a yellow wooden pencil.
        
       | thinkski wrote:
       | When they say motions of three bodies are random and
       | unpredictable, I assume they mean not able to be modeled with a
       | closed form equation? Seems like the motions would still be
       | entirely deterministic -- could still predict the locations of
       | the bodies computationally, given your computer computes faster
       | than reality (at least for a reality with only 3 bodies), no?
        
         | remram wrote:
         | You can only do that with some error, e.g. your simulation
         | needs some time step that controls the tradeoff between
         | computational resources used and accuracy of the results. For
         | any fixed time step, after enough time your simulation will
         | completely diverge from reality.
        
         | nine_k wrote:
         | On top of theoretically computable, but highly divergent /
         | unstable functions mentioned nearby, there are fully
         | deterministic (non-random, pure) but non-computable functions.
         | The simplest example is a function that answers whether a given
         | Turing machine would stop.
        
         | reedf1 wrote:
         | Chaos is the _extreme_ dependence on initial conditions. The
         | three body problem is significantly more _chaotic_ than a two
         | body problem. Welcome to chaos theory!
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | As I understand it, "random and unpredictable" means impossible
         | to measure the initial state in sufficient precision and/or
         | computationally impossible to calculate in a reasonable amount
         | of time.
         | 
         | The actual underlying math is deterministic.
        
           | argvargc wrote:
           | It seems the problem is often mis-stated - there is no
           | _calculation_ problem, the problem is in adequately defining
           | /sampling the initial data.
           | 
           | It's maybe similar to predicting the weather - we can have
           | all the perfect equations in the world for fluid dynamics and
           | heat flow etc, but until we have system-invisible temperature
           | and humidity sensors for every square millimetre of
           | atmosphere and earth volume, we won't be able to predict the
           | weather very accurately or very far ahead.
        
         | ordu wrote:
         | They would be deterministic. But they are unpredictable.
         | Minuscule fluctuations (coming from influence of some much
         | smaller bodies, that are not in the model, or approximations in
         | calculations) can lead to dramatic differences in the outcome.
         | 
         | So theoretically speaking, they are deterministic, but
         | practically they are unpredictable.
        
           | simonh wrote:
           | It's got nothing to do with perturbations from additional
           | small bodies, the problem is exactly mathematically
           | calculating the outcome for exactly three bodies within
           | reasonable time frames even if you assume perfect ideal
           | knowledge about the system. It turns out this is
           | excruciatingly hard.
           | 
           | The n-body problem where you add further bodies, even very
           | small ones, is even harder.
        
           | mjburgess wrote:
           | Random doesnt mean non-deterministic anyway.
           | 
           | X is random with respect to Y, if knowing Y makes no
           | difference to your predicting that X.
           | 
           | QM systems are _indeterminate_ , they are random in the above
           | sense /because/ they are indeterminate. But that isnt what
           | random means.
        
             | elcomet wrote:
             | What you're describing is not randomness, it's
             | independence.
             | 
             | It's hard to define randomness. I think non-determinism is
             | better than your definition.
        
           | ninkendo wrote:
           | The motion isn't deterministic if free will exists. Launching
           | a rocket into space decreases earth's rotation speed ever so
           | slightly, which will have a small impact on the moon's
           | trajectory due to tidal interactions, and so on.
        
             | athrowaway3z wrote:
             | Please define 'free will' before using it in a sentence
             | about determinism.
        
               | thaumasiotes wrote:
               | If that was a requirement, discussions of determinism
               | would sound awfully one-sided. ;p
        
             | mxxc wrote:
             | that case is beyond scope of the three body problem
        
             | martincmartin wrote:
             | There are those who believe determinism is not only
             | compatible with free will, but required for free will.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compatibilism
        
           | Aeolun wrote:
           | Huh? If this is the case, wouldn't a 2 body problem also be
           | practically impossible to calculate?
           | 
           | I mean, you can certainly still predict to a certain
           | (probably high) level of accuracy, but ultimately that motion
           | is also influenced by factors outside your model.
        
             | sasaf5 wrote:
             | Better stated, the 2-body problem can be solved with a
             | finite number of standard operations, i.e. a closed-form
             | expression. This solution does not exist for the 3-body
             | problem.
        
               | evanb wrote:
               | This is not a requirement for a system to lack chaos, nor
               | is it a metric by which we can judge if a system DOES
               | have chaos.
        
             | aaaaaaaaaaab wrote:
             | No. A small error in the initial conditions of a 2-body
             | system produces a small error in the result. In case of a
             | 3-body system, a small error will result in drastically
             | different outcomes. The phase space of a 2-body system is
             | nice and smooth, but a 3-body system's is more like a
             | fractal.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | The question is what happens with a small perturbation and
             | how does it "grow".
             | 
             | For a two body problem, you nudge one of the bodies and it
             | is forever off by a small amount, but your predictions into
             | infinity require only a small adjustment to compensate.
             | 
             | For a three body problem you nudge one of the bodies and
             | only for a very short time do your previous predictions
             | stay true, the change amplifies until nothing you thought
             | might happen before the nudge means anything at all, and a
             | common occurrence is one of the bodies being ejected.
        
               | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
               | > For a two body problem, you nudge one of the bodies and
               | it is forever off by a small amount, but your predictions
               | into infinity require only a small adjustment to
               | compensate.
               | 
               | How does this even work? Where is a place in the universe
               | where there are only two bodies?? Where would the nudge
               | come from if not from a third body?! A ghost?
        
               | mannerheim wrote:
               | You're taking it too literally. The 'nudge' means a
               | change in initial conditions, and could result e.g. from
               | measurement uncertainty, not necessarily a literal nudge.
               | 
               | It also doesn't necessarily matter that much if there are
               | more than two bodies, if the gravitational influence of
               | other bodies is small enough, then you can model as a two
               | body problem.
        
               | mokus wrote:
               | The "nudge" can also come up even with exact starting
               | information. When you calculate the next step and round
               | it to the nearest nanometer, you've just nudged the
               | system by enough to eventually make your prediction
               | worthless in the 3-body case.
        
               | colechristensen wrote:
               | You do an accounting of the nearby massive objects and
               | their distances from each other, pairs of objects within
               | certain bounds of mass and distance can be treated like
               | there are only those two objects in the universe with the
               | understanding that there will be a small error because of
               | outside influences. It's an approximation, but in the
               | right circumstances a very good one.
               | 
               | Each planet and the sun can be done like this, ignoring
               | all of the other planets. Each moon and its planet can be
               | considered a two body system ignoring the rest of the
               | moons.
               | 
               | If you just randomly generated a bunch of massive bodies
               | and pressed play, you would have few 2 body systems and a
               | lot of chaos, but that's a problem that solves itself as
               | the chaos results in either collisions or ejections.
        
               | mynegation wrote:
               | The relative magnitude of interactions is important. The
               | article specifically mentioned triple star system as an
               | example. Solar system is of course many body, but (a) it
               | has already settled into (sort of) stable configuration
               | (b) there is one massive body and everything else
               | revolves around it. Yes, massive bodies like gas giants
               | have noticeable affect on other bodies, but due to the
               | distances they tend to be in the stable territory.
        
               | stavros wrote:
               | > a common occurrence is one of the bodies being ejected.
               | 
               | So the problem eventually solves itself?
        
               | motoboi wrote:
               | Well, not if the ejected body contains you.
        
               | TheOtherHobbes wrote:
               | Being ejected from your model is unquestionably a
               | solution of sorts, although it does Raise Questions.
        
               | dnautics wrote:
               | Yes, but but also the problem really is: "given some
               | initial condition space, can we estimate the likelihood
               | of ejection (how many conditions in the condition space
               | eject) in X timeframe"?
        
               | RhysU wrote:
               | This is sometimes called "infinite sensitivity to initial
               | conditions" or "deterministic chaos".
        
             | bsf_ wrote:
             | In principle - yes. Except that we can change our frame of
             | reference, and treat the two body problem as a pseudo one
             | body problem (the lab frame becomes the center of mass of
             | one of the bodies). One cannot do this for the three body
             | problem, which gives us at best a pseudo two body problem.
        
             | alephu5 wrote:
             | For a two-body problem the discrepancies between your model
             | and reality increase gradually with time, but it's still
             | possible to predict eclipses decades in advance with a
             | precise albeit imperfect measurement of initial conditions.
             | 
             | With a three-body problem any slight shift causes a wildly
             | different trajectory, bearing no resemblance to the
             | original so your measurements of the initial condition have
             | to be perfect.
        
               | ekianjo wrote:
               | arent eclipses three body problems?
        
               | nwatson wrote:
               | For all practical purposes eclipses are two two-body
               | problems ... Sun vs Earth-Moon pair, and Earth vs Moon.
               | The scale of the Sun is so vastly larger and distances so
               | great from sun to earth there's no need to do 3-body.
               | 
               | If the three had roughly the same mass would be different
               | story.
        
               | Grustaf wrote:
               | No that's not it. The two body problem has a closed,
               | analytical solution, the three body one doesn't, so you
               | need to simulate it. It's a fundamentally different
               | approach.
        
               | l332mn wrote:
               | That's not really the issue. The three body problem does
               | have an analytical solution in the form of a power
               | series, but the problem is that it converges so slowly to
               | be of any practical use.
        
               | Grustaf wrote:
               | It is though, if you don't have a closed form solution
               | you need to use an iterative process to calculate the
               | positions, meaning errors will accrue over time. For a
               | closed form solution that wouldn't be the case.
               | 
               | Thanks for mentioning the existence of an analytical
               | solution at all though, I wasn't aware of that.
        
               | chestervonwinch wrote:
               | > meaning errors will accrue over time
               | 
               | This is not universally true. Error behavior is a
               | function of the particular problem, the algorithm used to
               | approximate its solution, and the properties of input
               | data. A large subtopic of numerical analysis is concerned
               | with this kind of stuff. See [1] or [2] to get a flavor.
               | 
               | [1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Numerical_stability
               | 
               | [2]:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lax_equivalence_theorem
        
               | johncolanduoni wrote:
               | There are iterative methods/systems that stabilize over
               | time. For example, symplectic integrators on tame
               | problems oscillate lightly around the true energy of the
               | system over time. The issue here is the properties of the
               | underlying problem, not the set of solution methods.
        
               | extropy wrote:
               | Both of you are correct.
        
             | Grustaf wrote:
             | No, the fundamental difference is that the two-body problem
             | can be solved analytically, you can write down a formula.
             | For three bodies and up you only have numerical solutions,
             | simulations, and they will break down over time.
        
               | user-the-name wrote:
               | That is not the issue. There are many problems that do
               | not have analytical solutions, but can be approximated
               | numerically to any precision you would like.
               | 
               | The issue with the three-body problem is that it is
               | chaotic, meaning any error will eventually grow to take
               | over the entire solution, making prediction impossible,
               | even in theory. Every chaotic system lacks an analytical
               | solution, but not every system without an analytical
               | solution is chaotic.
        
               | bottled_poe wrote:
               | I think this is accurate and I don't understand why you
               | are being downvoted.
        
               | phreeza wrote:
               | The problem is that a three-body system is inherently
               | unstable/chaotic. So even if you run a numerical
               | simulation with the same granularity for a two-body and a
               | three-body system, the three-body simulation will degrade
               | much faster than the two-body system. This is unrelated
               | to the fact that there is a closed form solution, there
               | are many stable, non-chaotic dynamical systems that don't
               | have a closed form solution.
        
               | MontyCarloHall wrote:
               | Conversely, there are also extremely simple closed-form
               | recurrence relations that exhibit chaotic behavior, e.g.
               | the logistic map.
        
               | acjohnson55 wrote:
               | Would a linear-feedback shift register be an example of a
               | recurrence relation that exhibits chaotic behavior?
        
               | phreeza wrote:
               | True but a recurrence relationship is not the same as a
               | closed form solution. The differential equation for a
               | three body problem is also very simple.
        
               | MontyCarloHall wrote:
               | Of course. My point was just that you can evaluate a
               | recurrence relation exactly (i.e. with zero numerical
               | error) and still get chaotic behavior. OP's mistaken
               | point was that the three body problem's chaos arises
               | solely from numerical error during simulation, which is
               | untrue.
        
               | Grustaf wrote:
               | Well sure. But my point was that for two bodies you don't
               | need to simulate at all, you can just get the answer for
               | any point in time.
        
               | phreeza wrote:
               | The need for numerical simulations is completely
               | unrelated to the predictability and/or stability of the
               | system. If you have a Lyapunov exponent smaller than 0
               | everywhere, errors don't accumulate and you can simulate
               | numerically for as long as you like.
        
               | Grustaf wrote:
               | It's not unrelated, but the implication only goes in one
               | direction. If you have a closed form solution, that
               | implies that you can model it completely forever, but
               | sure the opposite is not true.
        
           | kergonath wrote:
           | I think the issue was more with "random" than with
           | "unpredictable".
        
           | deltasixeight wrote:
           | >So theoretically speaking, they are deterministic, but
           | practically they are unpredictable.
           | 
           | The three body problem is REFERING to the ideal case where
           | only a perfect model is considered. Within this model we
           | don't even know the math to calculate it. So, in short, we
           | lack a "deterministic theory" about this problem at all.
           | 
           | What's going on here is an assumption. We assume that an
           | idealistic scenario will always produce the same result. But
           | we don't actually know because we don't even have a proper
           | model. From a certain angle what this paper is kind of saying
           | is that this assumption is WRONG and that the underlying
           | model of the ideal case of the three body problem IS
           | probabilistic.
           | 
           | I'm not a math/physics guy but the fact that this "theory"
           | involves probability seems sort of like the same initial cop
           | out that came with quantum theory. It's like we can't explain
           | mathematically why a particle behaves this way but it seems
           | to be obeying a probability so let's make probability the
           | basis of the theory! Problem Solved!
           | 
           | Men are by probability more likely to join engineering than
           | women. Because of this probability should we make up a theory
           | called "The fundamental theory of men and women joining
           | engineering" that is described by a probability equation? OR
           | is it better to find an underlying more "deterministic"
           | explanation for why this occurs?
           | 
           | It may sound like I'm denigrating the probabilistic path
           | here, but really theories like this usually only come about
           | when it's basically impossible to come up with a
           | deterministic version. And technically speaking we can never
           | actually know whether the foundations of the universe are
           | probabilistic or deterministic.
        
             | konschubert wrote:
             | No. We know there is a deterministic solution, even if we
             | can't calculate it.
        
               | deltasixeight wrote:
               | Prove it. I guarantee you 100% you don't know how and you
               | can't ever prove it.
               | 
               | You are completely and utterly wrong and you don't know
               | what you're talking about. That is a fact.
               | 
               | In fact I'm willing to put money on it. $1000 over venmo
               | to you, a random stranger. You down? Give me a formal and
               | correct proof that if a solution exists and that it is
               | deterministic and I swear I'll venmo $1000 to whatever
               | address you wish. Can you do the same? No, you can't.
               | 
               | If not then I'm right. We don't KNOW whether it's
               | deterministic because our BEST model is probabilistic.
               | 
               | We really should raise the stakes and seriousness of HN
               | comments to prevent random uneducated people who really
               | don't know anything from posting random comments. Like
               | come on... HN is better than reddit but some random set
               | of "rules" against unsubstantiated comments doesn't stop
               | people like this guy from posting unsubstantiated
               | comments.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | You think Newtonian physics is non-deterministic?
               | 
               | I haven't checked but I think existence and uniqueness
               | for the classical three body problem likely follows from
               | standard theorems on ODEs. If you can articulate why this
               | is not the case, please do.
               | 
               | edit: Yes, see section 2.1 of this term paper: https://si
               | tes.math.washington.edu/~morrow/336_13/papers/pete....
               | 
               | In fact, more is known: the solution exists and is
               | analytic. From Wikipedia: "However, in 1912 the Finnish
               | mathematician Karl Fritiof Sundman proved that there
               | exists an analytic solution to the three-body problem in
               | the form of a power series in terms of powers of t1/3.
               | This series converges for all real t, except for initial
               | conditions corresponding to zero angular momentum. In
               | practice, the latter restriction is insignificant since
               | initial conditions with zero angular momentum are rare,
               | having Lebesgue measure zero. "
        
               | deltasixeight wrote:
               | I didn't say that.
               | 
               | For the three body problem we don't know the closed form
               | solution under Newtonian physics. So if we don't know it,
               | then a closed solution may not even exist. If we don't
               | know whether a closed form solution exists then how can
               | we even know if it's deterministic.
               | 
               | You can prove determinism by finding me a solution that's
               | closed and deterministic.
               | 
               | My answer is the same as stated: we don't know, and that
               | the claim that we do know, is completely wrong.
               | 
               | >In fact, more is known: the solution exists and is
               | analytic
               | 
               | These are special cases, under special conditions. A
               | general solution is not actually known. We don't know. We
               | are only assuming that it's deterministic. Also the
               | solution you provided is analytic not closed.
        
               | kergonath wrote:
               | > So if we don't know it, then a closed solution may not
               | even exist. If we don't know whether a closed form
               | solution exists then how can we even know if it's
               | deterministic.
               | 
               | We can prove that something has some properties even if
               | we don't know everything about it. Newton's second law in
               | a many-body system is (in the case of Newtonian gravity)
               | basically a system of independent second-order ODEs. We
               | know a thing or two about these beasts.
               | 
               | Anyway, let me try something (without LaTeX, so I
               | apologise in advance for the notation).
               | 
               | Let's think about a many-body system (following Newtonian
               | mechanics, and interacting via Newtonian gravity) from
               | the point of view of its positions-velocities phase
               | space. The solution is not deterministic if there are
               | points (i.e., sets of positions and velocities for all
               | the particles) that are part of at least two
               | trajectories.
               | 
               | Let's assume we are looking at such a point. The forces F
               | and all their derivatives dF/dr are the same along all
               | trajectories, because they depend only on the positions
               | (which are identical). The velocities and the positions
               | are the same because it is the same point in the phase
               | space.
               | 
               | The third derivatives of the positions w.r.t time are
               | also identical (d^3r/dt^3 = 1/m dF/dt, and dF/dt = dF/dr
               | dr/dt, and the dr/dt are identical).
               | 
               | You can go on to the n-th derivative, n being arbitrary
               | large (d^4 r/dt^4 is a function of only dF/dr, dr/dt, d^2
               | r/dt^2 and d^2 F/dr^2, all of which are identical along
               | both trajectories, etc).
               | 
               | So, it means that both trajectories have the same
               | position in the phase space, and all their derivatives
               | are identical, i.e., both trajectories are identical. So
               | it is deterministic (there is no point in the phase space
               | that belongs to more than one trajectory).
               | 
               | It is somewhat related to Liouville's theorem.
        
               | spekcular wrote:
               | "If we don't know whether a closed form solution exists
               | then how can we even know if it's deterministic.
               | 
               | You can prove determinism by finding me a solution that's
               | closed and deterministic."
               | 
               | Why would it be necessary to have a closed form solution
               | to know that the solution is deterministic? By the first
               | reference in my previous comment, two identical initial
               | conditions lead to identical time evolutions. That is
               | literally the definition of determinism.
        
               | deltasixeight wrote:
               | No look at my wording more carefully. You are
               | misinterpreting it. I said we don't know if a "closed
               | form solution" is deterministic because we don't even
               | know if there is a "closed form solution."
               | 
               | I also said that you CAN prove determinism to me by
               | finding a closed form solution that is deterministic. I
               | never said you needed to nor did I say that was the only
               | way.
               | 
               | Your examples are for special cases. Can you prove it to
               | me that for N-bodies and all possible initial conditions
               | that all solutions are deterministic?
        
               | robocat wrote:
               | Unfortunately your aggressiveness and rudeness make your
               | comment of lower quality than the one you are answering -
               | read https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html to
               | see what site rules you are breaking as well. Betting
               | doesn't make your argument truer, it only points to your
               | own irrationality.
               | 
               | Disclaimer: I am no mathematician nor physicist.
               | 
               | However the intuition is that any set of equations must
               | be deterministic, unless they refer to a non-
               | deterministic function like random(x).
               | 
               | Should you wish to argue that the three body problem can
               | generate true randomness, I think it is your
               | responsibility to refer to links that support your
               | argument. I would expect an argument to refer to
               | mathematical concepts and have nothing to do with the
               | three body problem in particular. I suspect it verges on
               | tautological that if you can define equations then it is
               | deterministic.
        
               | deltasixeight wrote:
               | >Unfortunately your aggressiveness and rudeness make your
               | comment of lower quality than the one you are answering -
               | read https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html to
               | see what site rules you are breaking as well. Betting
               | doesn't make your argument truer, it only points to your
               | own irrationality.
               | 
               | Did you not notice the person who replied to me literally
               | just commented a single sentence and left it at that?
               | It's called an unsubstantiated comment and it is also
               | addressed int the rules you link here:
               | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
               | 
               | I simply made a bet. There's no aggression here. I like
               | to back up my claims with more seriousness rather then
               | single line comments. Also claiming my post is rude and
               | aggressive when it isn't is in itself rude. I just make
               | claims and I offer to back up my claim with money. Why? I
               | would offer a proof but no proof is known because my
               | answer is: We don't know.
               | 
               | >Should you wish to argue that the three body problem can
               | generate true randomness, I think it is your
               | responsibility to refer to links that support your
               | argument
               | 
               | Except this is not my wish and I never stated such. My
               | statement is that we don't know if it's deterministic. My
               | offer is that I put money on the fact we don't have any
               | definitive proof we do know.
               | 
               | >However the intuition is that any set of equations must
               | be deterministic,
               | 
               | Intuition is just hand waving. There is nothing
               | definitive here I'm sorry. My offer stands to the first
               | person that can give me a proof, $1000. That includes you
               | even though I found the first paragraph of your post
               | dishonest and rude. You called me irrational, that's
               | practically an insult and a flagrant violation of the
               | rules. I did no such violation.
               | 
               | What's going on here is not that I'm violating the rules.
               | But that you're biased. You disagree with me so your bias
               | senses aggression and violations of rules on my side even
               | though I did no such thing. In fact your bias blinds you
               | to your own violation. You called me irrational. Might as
               | well call me stupid. Same personal insult just disguised
               | with smarter wording.
        
             | kergonath wrote:
             | We can have these problems simply with classical mechanics'
             | equations of motion (Newton, Lagrange, Hamilton, whatever).
             | These equations are deterministic, there is no doubt about
             | this. We just don't have an analytical form.
             | 
             | We know that exactly the same initial conditions will lead
             | to the exact same trajectory. What we also know is that the
             | tiniest error will make the trajectories diverge
             | exponentially. It is still deterministic.
             | 
             | AFAICT, their random walk idea is not in the trajectories
             | themselves, but in the sampling of the possible
             | trajectories to assign them a statistical weight, a bit
             | like we do commonly in statistical Physics.
        
               | deltasixeight wrote:
               | >We know that exactly the same initial conditions will
               | lead to the exact same trajectory.
               | 
               | Do we have a proof of this? Or is it that we just assume
               | this?
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | bo0tzz wrote:
         | While we can simulate three (or more) bodies' gravitational
         | interaction, the chaoticness means that any error in initial
         | state, no matter how small, will be hugely amplified. This
         | makes long-term predictions untractable
        
         | ineptech wrote:
         | Edward Lorenz summarized chaotic behavior as: "When the present
         | determines the future, but the approximate present does not
         | approximately determine the future."
         | 
         | So yes, you could predict the locations computationally to an
         | arbitrary point in the future if you knew their starting
         | locations and velocities with perfect precision; but in
         | practice of course you cannot know anything's position with
         | perfect precision, so your simulation would become inaccurate
         | relatively quickly.
         | 
         | edit to add: and I believe that what this paper discusses is
         | not a solution to the above, but rather a way of getting around
         | it by modeling some types of three-body behavior as if it were
         | truly random, rather than chaotically deterministic.
        
         | m3kw9 wrote:
         | If you freeze each point in time , isn't the next minute step
         | deterministic? Every time you freeze, you would have all the
         | motion vectors to calculate the next moment, if you expand that
         | using a lot of computation power, ca you solve it that way?
        
         | akomtu wrote:
         | The initial conditions are usually known up to a small epsilon
         | in practice. I guess this initial error grows exponentially
         | with time, hence "unpredictability".
        
           | DiogenesKynikos wrote:
           | This exponential increase in error is described by the
           | Lyapunov exponent of the system:
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lyapunov_exponent
        
         | mxxc wrote:
         | there is no closed form, like you say, and the additional
         | complexity is around ergodicity, i.e. solutions that start
         | close to each other might end up very far from each other after
         | a certain point. this is also an issue with computer
         | simulations as the error might accumulate and push solutions
         | away. in practice, given the amount of cosmological
         | computations people do on a daily basis, including those for
         | satellites and rockets, this might not necessarily be that big
         | of an issue, but i don't work with that stuff on a daily basis.
        
         | bad_username wrote:
         | There are cases in classical mechanics that fail to be
         | deterministic.
         | 
         | https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/403574/what-situ...
        
       | cankut_orakcal wrote:
       | Please saw off the head of Mr. Cankut Orakcal. You can stop the
       | coronavirus pandemic, the next 9/11 or financial crisis.
       | Decapitate on sight as needed.
        
       | nsoonhui wrote:
       | Coming from a non-physics background, I would like to know how
       | would this help us in predicting the future trajectory of a
       | three-body system? How does it improve over the current solution
       | techniques?
        
       | ksec wrote:
       | This may be a Rant, or an unpopular opinion.
       | 
       | Life is strange. As if God is reminding me something.
       | 
       | It was only yesterday Overthinking [1] was submitted on HN. A
       | little over 10 years ago many of my friends and colleagues told
       | me to stop overthinking about things. It was causing me some
       | stress and depression because when you start doing analysis many
       | level deep the only conclusion is any small variance will simply
       | cause Chaos. I look it up on the internet and that was the first
       | time I learn about three body problem, Chaos theory, and the much
       | more widely known butterfly effect.
       | 
       | I wish I was taught about this in school or told a lot sooner. To
       | me it is much more about life than it is to maths or physics.
       | Where everything could start out as _deterministic_ , and yet the
       | small difference made end results unpredictable. Over time it
       | also evolved or taught me another concept, many many things or
       | solutions in the world are somehow counter-intuitive.
       | 
       | Then I had a few successful project under my belt, but when I was
       | asked in a Job interview I always attribute to "luck" more than
       | anything else. Which happens to be a word HR and many people
       | hate. Americanism ( which also spreads to non-Americans working
       | inside American companies ) views on the world suggest if you
       | work hard you _will_ get it. I wish that was the case, but there
       | were hundreds if not thousands of known moving parts. And
       | possibly thousands of other unknown unknown. It worked. We worked
       | hard. And it worked. It was everyone involved and lots of luck. I
       | was only a small part of it.
       | 
       | I am sure those who interview me are all pretty smart. May be
       | they should try to solve the three body problem.
       | 
       | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=28158435
        
         | jjcdtunb wrote:
         | > Americanism ( which also spreads to non-Americans working
         | inside American companies ) views on the world suggest if you
         | work hard you will get it.
         | 
         | America is a big place. I'm seventh generation American, with a
         | patriotic family.
         | 
         | I wasn't raised to believe that if you work hard you WILL get
         | it. No, it's that if you DON'T work hard, you WON'T get it.
         | 
         | You see, success is hard work + luck. You can have luck without
         | hard work, but you have to have a lot more of it to get rich
         | and you still might squander it if you didn't earn it because
         | you won't know what to do with it if you get it by pure chance
         | 
         | You can have hard work without luck, too, like most of the
         | folks in flyover country have. They know they aren't getting
         | rich, they're just trying to get by.
         | 
         | But you can't have real success without both hard work and
         | luck. You might win the lottery with just luck, but you won't
         | wind up running a successful enterprise.
         | 
         | I don't know who is learning from their parents that if you
         | work hard you'll get rich. Mine taught me that if I work hard
         | and have a little luck, I'll get by. A little more luck and
         | I'll be successful. A little less, and I might need to rely on
         | my family or community. That's what they're for.
         | 
         | There's this characiture of American culture and the idea of
         | our meritocracy that I see represented here and in media and it
         | doesn't ring true to me -- I would be interested to know if the
         | people who think luck is the only necessary component for
         | success are Coastal or Flyover, and how much luck they've had
         | 
         | I know for myself, I've needed both work and luck. Without the
         | work, I never would've been in a position to take the
         | opportunities offered by luck.
        
           | prairiedogg wrote:
           | > No, it's that if you DON'T work hard, you WON'T get it.
           | 
           | Depends on how much you start with.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | godelski wrote:
           | There's a saying: the harder I work, the luckier I get.
           | 
           | I read this as the harder you work the more you're able to
           | take advantage of lucky moments. But those lucky moments
           | still need to happen for you to take advantage of them. I
           | think a lot of people don't like to admit that luck had
           | anything to do with it because we have a culture that often
           | suggests that it's luck or work but not some combination.
           | While there are cases on the extreme ends of the spectrum I'm
           | willing to bet that the vast majority are from a combination
           | of hard work and high luck.
           | 
           | Veritasium did a (pretty obvious) simulation that showed
           | those on the top end up having both high luck and hard
           | work.[0] I think this should make sense to most people given
           | how the simulation was run.
           | 
           | [0] https://youtu.be/3LopI4YeC4I
        
           | PragmaticPulp wrote:
           | > I wasn't raised to believe that if you work hard you WILL
           | get it. No, it's that if you DON'T work hard, you WON'T get
           | it.
           | 
           | Well said. I think the common misconception comes from
           | reducing these wisdoms into aphorisms that are short, but
           | easily misunderstood. Any adult who has lived more than a few
           | years in the real world quickly understands that hard work
           | doesn't guarantee success, but that success isn't going to
           | fall in your lap without putting in work.
           | 
           | The online discourse has become particularly bad, with the
           | pendulum swinging between extremes of "You can do anything if
           | you follow your dreams" to the opposite of "Nothing you do
           | matters because it's all blind luck".
           | 
           | The latter, cynical mindset has become particularly popular
           | as a way of dismissing or downplaying the success of others.
           | I can't count how many times I've heard people try to
           | attribute Jeff Bezo's success to that one time he was lucky
           | enough to receive a loan from his family. Yes, it was a lucky
           | break, but it should be obvious that something like receiving
           | a loan from one's family doesn't automatically predispose
           | someone to lucking into building a trillion dollar company.
           | Yet there's a growing contingent of people who want to
           | believe that Jeff Bezos tripped and fell and landed in the
           | founder seat of a successful company by pure luck.
           | 
           | I think the truth is that a lot of people, especially younger
           | people still finding their way, are insecure about their own
           | success or place in life. It can be extremely comforting to
           | surround yourself with explanations that nothing is actually
           | within your control or that others' success or happiness is
           | the result of randomness. I think this is why we see the oft-
           | repeated trope (on HN especially) that people who post happy
           | photos on social media must actually be secretly sad and
           | miserable behind the scenes: It's a convenient excuse to
           | downplay the happiness and success of others.
           | 
           | Ignore the extremes. Accept that success isn't guaranteed.
           | Know that luck is a factor, but it's not the only factor.
           | Hard work is your lever to maximize the cards you've been
           | dealt. We're all dealt different cards, but it still comes
           | down to your own actions in leveraging the hand you've been
           | dealt.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | > It can be extremely comforting to surround yourself with
             | explanations that nothing is actually within your control
             | or that others' success or happiness is the result of
             | randomness.
             | 
             | On the other hand, accepting responsibility for results is
             | empowering, because it means one can be successful.
             | 
             | I don't see anything happy about deciding one is a hapless
             | victim of others.
        
               | smolder wrote:
               | The comfort in shifting your locus of control outward
               | comes from relieving the shame of failure, not from being
               | an overall positive experience. In fact, it's common for
               | people to both take credit for their successes while
               | blaming their failures on external factors to relieve the
               | shame.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Blaming failure on others or external factors doesn't
               | lead to success. It leads to bitterness and resentment.
        
           | thayne wrote:
           | > I don't know who is learning from their parents that if you
           | work hard you'll get rich
           | 
           | Rich people. It's the result of survivor bias, "I worked hard
           | and got rich, so if you work hard you can get rich too." And
           | they discount the "luck". And it is reinforced by the fact
           | that being born to wealthy, well connected parents is really
           | luck.
        
           | kergonath wrote:
           | > No, it's that if you DON'T work hard, you WON'T get it.
           | 
           | There are plenty of born-rich counter examples. New-rich
           | counter examples as well (see Bitcoin millionaires). Frankly,
           | this is just as false as the other one.
           | 
           | Never mind the fact that "working hard" depends quite a lot
           | on the beholder. For example, I would challenge a lot of
           | those self-declared gritty, hard-working ideologists (such as
           | Bezos and quite a few armchair billionaires) to live a year
           | as a minimum-wage single mother in a city.
           | 
           | In any case, there are _lots_ more hard-working poor than
           | hard-working rich, regardless of how you define hardness. So
           | it's about as valuable as "all the winners played the
           | lottery", i.e., amusing to say but not really a good way of
           | living.
           | 
           | Anyway, my feeling is that successive people are very good at
           | gaslighting the others to justify their wealth, and that
           | America has a workaholism problem.
        
           | dclowd9901 wrote:
           | My parents' attitudes are very much more oriented toward hard
           | work becoming success and that if you haven't gotten what you
           | wanted, it's because you haven't tried hard enough yet.
           | 
           | In a way, they're right. I'd love a 911 GT3, and I could
           | almost certainly get one, if only for a short period of time,
           | and with the benefit of armed robbery.
           | 
           | There's a lot of things I've "chosen" to consider instead of
           | putting everything aside to chase a dream. In more concrete
           | terms, anyone can have anything they want, but what you have
           | to give up for it matters. And that's something I think my
           | parents and people like them don't think about. Not everyone
           | has the emotional construction, or even the ability to give
           | up aspects of their life to achieve what they want. I think a
           | large part of "luck" is when the time comes to make a hard
           | decision like that, some fortunate circumstance made
           | swallowing that pill a bit easier.
        
           | spaetzleesser wrote:
           | "I don't know who is learning from their parents that if you
           | work hard you'll get rich."
           | 
           | I read that line a lot from successful people: "I have
           | achieved X. IF I can achieve it, you can too. Let me explain
           | how. "
        
           | fahadkhan wrote:
           | > There's this characiture of American culture and the idea
           | of our meritocracy
           | 
           | But earlier
           | 
           | > if I work hard and have a little luck, I'll get by. A
           | little more luck and I'll be successful. A little less, and I
           | might need to rely on my family or community.
           | 
           | This isn't a meritocracy that you are describing
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | Sure it is. Hard work weights probability in your favour
             | and gives you more opportunities. Surely that's the best
             | anyone can ever hope for? Do you have a system in mind that
             | makes guarantees?
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Right. Successful people make their own luck.
        
               | Supermancho wrote:
               | A meritocracy isn't about guarantees, other than ranking
               | is by performance not externalities. By most definitions,
               | a meritocracy is impractical, granted. In a real-world
               | sense, the socio-economic status of every individual on
               | earth is primarily governed by luck/circumstance. Not to
               | say there aren't exceptions, but there has to be an
               | inordinate amount of "merit" AND luck to overcome the
               | initial state, statistically. To whit, a human lifetime
               | is more complex and complicated to navigate, than the 3
               | body problem.
        
           | bigfudge wrote:
           | Interestingly though, when asked Americans rate luck as much
           | less important in financial success than other cultures. Euro
           | countries in particular are more comfortable attributing a
           | higher fraction of their success to luck than those in the
           | US. And by asked I mean a reasonable well designed study... I
           | can't find the ref just now but will post if I do when home
           | again.
        
             | robocat wrote:
             | It makes perfect sense to have an irrational belief in hard
             | work.
             | 
             | You are likely to have more success if you believe in work.
             | Certainly believing that 100% of outcomes is luck seems
             | like a bad strategy.
             | 
             | At the level of a society then average beliefs matter. I
             | find some less successful countries seem to obsess over the
             | role of external influences, fate, god, and chance.
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | > I wasn't raised to believe that if you work hard you WILL
           | get it. No, it's that if you DON'T work hard, you WON'T get
           | it.
           | 
           | Reminds me of when the CEO of GM said "What's good for
           | General Motors is good for the country." Except he didn't say
           | that. The press did a hatchet job on him by reporting it that
           | way. The actual quote is "what was good for our country was
           | good for General Motors, and vice versa."
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Charles_Erwin_Wilson#General_M.
           | ..
        
             | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
             | you think that making the "and vice versa" explicit ("...
             | and what's good for General Motors is good for our
             | country") is a hatchet job?
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Leaving off crucial parts of the statement makes it a
               | hatchet job.
               | 
               | Just like if someone says "more or less" and the
               | journalist leaves out the "or less".
        
               | PaulDavisThe1st wrote:
               | You believe that the first clause somehow balances the
               | second?
               | 
               | When this (partial) quote is used, it's generally in a
               | context where the first clause is arguably irrelevant. I
               | don't think it's like your "more or less" analogy. There
               | are not many corporations that fail to benefit when the
               | country does well, so the first clause is broadly agreed
               | upon. The second clause, however, is controversial, and
               | has implications that are quite independent of the first
               | clause.
               | 
               | "It will be sunny today, and tomorrow there will be snow"
               | - if you hear this weather forecast at 13:00 on a sunny
               | day, the first clause is close to information-free, but
               | the second is very striking.
               | 
               | So it is with the quote from the head of GM.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | > You believe that the first clause somehow balances the
               | second?
               | 
               | It doesn't matter if I believe it or not. It's a hatchet
               | job to selectively misquote people to pursue the
               | journalist's agenda.
        
         | sgregnt wrote:
         | To me it is not surprising that an interviewer would not be
         | satisfied if you attribute your success to luck alone. What can
         | you contribute to a new work place if you rely purely on luck?
         | It is important to identify how you were in a position to take
         | advantage of the lucky circumstances that you had...
         | 
         | My two cents: A well thought out design process tries to
         | augment luck with a controlled progress: where you try to move
         | towards your goals in a systematic, more controlled, way so the
         | final outcome is less dependent on luck but more dependent on
         | your ability to properly adjust and execute your design plan.
         | It might be that luck was more important than the process in
         | your case, but that hard to build on, and more importantly, to
         | make any learnings for the future, it still good to analyze how
         | the process could be made better, how you could better take
         | advantage of the lucky circumstances you had.
        
         | DiggyJohnson wrote:
         | I agree. I'm writing a book about why people play MMORPGs, and
         | you just got at the heart of (part of one of my) theses.
        
           | nathanvanfleet wrote:
           | That's actually pretty interesting.
        
           | wincy wrote:
           | Ugh I think back to my server-first raid boss kills in wow,
           | my giant space battles in EVE Online, my lasting relationship
           | trauma from being "catfished" before it was even a word on
           | Second Life, and wish I'd just gone to college or something
           | instead of spending my teens and 20s playing MMOs. What a
           | terrible trap these things are.
        
           | bgroat wrote:
           | Is there an email list where I can subscribe for information
           | about this book/pre-order?
        
             | DiggyJohnson wrote:
             | Not yet, but I'll start thinking about it. I've never
             | talked to anyone about it other than close friends, I
             | probably should share more as progress continues.
        
               | petercooper wrote:
               | I would also be keen to follow progress on this when you
               | reach such a point.
        
               | ghoward wrote:
               | I think it's great that you're not hyping it, and hope
               | you don't until it's close to ready.
               | 
               | That said, even though I am not an MMORPG player, I'd be
               | interested in seeing it.
        
         | PragmaticPulp wrote:
         | > It was causing me some stress and depression because when you
         | start doing analysis many level deep the only conclusion is any
         | small variance will simply cause Chaos.
         | 
         | With n-body simulation problems, we don't actually observe
         | immediate chaotic behavior following small perturbations. In
         | fact, we can readily simulate these systems with considerable
         | accuracy if we want to spend the compute resources. For
         | example, simulating our own solar system with far more than 3
         | bodies in play can be done with a high degree of accuracy to
         | timescales far beyond our lifetimes.
         | 
         | However, the n-body problem isn't a good analogy for your sense
         | of personal agency anyway. You aren't a chunk of rock floating
         | helplessly through space. You are a human being who can take
         | action to influence your own trajectory. You can apply pressure
         | and course correct in a feedback loop, unlike a planet hurling
         | through the solar system.
         | 
         | That doesn't mean you can influence everything, but it it does
         | mean that it's wrong to assume that your life is chaotic or
         | that nothing you do matters. (FWIW, The latter feeling is a
         | very classic, and erroneous, thought pattern present in
         | depressive disorders. Correcting that misconception is a core
         | principle of CBT therapy).
         | 
         | You are not a planet hurtling helplessly through space for
         | billions of years. You're more like a satellite being launched
         | optimistically into the right general area, but it still has to
         | use the limited amount of thruster energy onboard to push
         | itself into the right place. It doesn't always work exactly as
         | planned, but not using the thrusters at all would assure
         | failure.
        
           | jvanderbot wrote:
           | You are more like a ship than a bottle in the sea. And like a
           | ship, require maintenance, helping hands, bravery, and a
           | destination.
        
         | function_seven wrote:
         | I think you'd like Ted Chiang's short story "Anxiety is the
         | Dizziness of Freedom"
         | 
         | Touches on these themes and really made me think about the
         | overlap of chaos and ("macro"?)determinism.
         | 
         | https://onezero.medium.com/anxiety-is-the-dizziness-of-freed...
        
         | hippari wrote:
         | Lots of classes function are infeasible to compute, but they're
         | deterministic nevertheless. The whole universe might not have
         | enough computational power to give you the answers.
        
           | m3kw9 wrote:
           | If you think about it, the universe did compute the answer it
           | just takes time to get there.
        
           | PragmaticPulp wrote:
           | > Lots of classes function are infeasible to compute, but
           | they're deterministic nevertheless.
           | 
           | Exactly, and it also depends on the timescale and precision
           | you're looking for.
           | 
           | It should be obvious that planets in our own solar system
           | aren't showing up at unpredictable locations after a few
           | years, even though our solar system has significantly more
           | than 3 bodies in orbit.
           | 
           | The chaotic behavior in these systems shows up _eventually_
           | but it 's a mistake to think that it's chaotic from the
           | start. We can, and do, predict these systems quite accurately
           | around the starting conditions and time.
           | 
           | The philosophical mistake in the OP's comment is equating a
           | hands-off chaotic system (n-body problem) with a system that
           | has many feedback loops (a person's life). Planets orbiting
           | in space can't take action to change their trajectories.
           | Humans navigating their lives can and do take actions to
           | change their trajectories.
           | 
           | Humans can make moves to correct their own course. Planets
           | cannot. Equating the two is a misunderstanding of personal
           | agency.
        
         | WalterBright wrote:
         | > if you work hard you will get it
         | 
         | That's a misunderstanding. It's working hard _on the right
         | things_. Working hard digging a hole then filling it up again
         | will never lead to success.
         | 
         | As for luck, the idea is to put yourself in a position where
         | luck can find you. For example, you'll never meet the partner
         | of your dreams by never leaving the house.
        
         | Borrible wrote:
         | >but when I was asked in a Job interview I always attribute to
         | "luck" more than anything else
         | 
         | Reframe that to recognizing potential and realizing it with
         | great success.
        
         | SubiculumCode wrote:
         | A rain drop forms in the sky and begins to fall. What path it
         | takes, no one knows, but that it lands, we can surely assume.
        
       | antonzabirko wrote:
       | Why is this impactful? Isnt this already established that you can
       | predict random walks with probability?
        
         | forgotpwd16 wrote:
         | Probably its application in the specific problem.
        
       | ThinBold wrote:
       | While the tone sounds like a university webpage advertising its
       | scholars' results, this does seem to be an interesting viewpoint.
       | (Unless similar viewpoints have been proposed before.)
       | 
       | This also reminds me of the QR iteration, where you loose track
       | of the matrix entries very quickly (after 2 or 3 steps into the
       | iteration), but in the end the diagonal does converge to the
       | eigenvalues.
        
       | graderjs wrote:
       | Fun to watch HN trying to solve the three-body problem in the
       | comment thread.
        
         | krisoft wrote:
         | That's not what I see. I see people, many of whom are not
         | experts in math or physics, discussing the topic. There are
         | many smart questions, and there are also some which are less
         | so.
         | 
         | Your comment insinuates, but does not state, that this is wrong
         | somehow. If that was your true intention then you are both smug
         | and wrong.
         | 
         | Science is not something you should put in a glass case, only
         | to be handled by ordained priests in the appropriate manner.
         | Asking questions and providing answers to ones best abilities
         | is how it is best interacted with.
         | 
         | If you know better, that is amazing. If you see wrong answers:
         | correct them. If you see misleading questions: explain why they
         | are so. Just don't be smug, nothing ever got better by that.
        
           | graderjs wrote:
           | > Asking questions and providing answers to ones best
           | abilities
           | 
           | dude, they're not trying to do that there they're just trying
           | to one up each other. Just like you're trying to do with this
           | comment. It's the hn ape brain mind.
        
             | krisoft wrote:
             | True! And that is why I wrote "If that was your true
             | intention..." Thank you for quoting it!
             | 
             | -----
             | 
             | Looks like you completely changed your comment. Not cool.
             | I'm going to leave mine as it is. This is no way to behave
             | in a discussion. Have a good day.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | graderjs wrote:
               | Haha, yes and you're behaving morally: projecting your
               | shit under someone else's stuff as a fake excuse to
               | attack them? That's the 'no way to behave'
        
         | nsizx wrote:
         | People shouldn't be allowed to ask questions or make uneducated
         | guesses to explore and understand the problem and satisfy their
         | curiosity. We should ask you for permission first.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | robot_no_419 wrote:
           | I'd even go so far to say that plenty people on these forums
           | have the required knowledge in physics, mathematics, and
           | computer science to make meaningful contributions to this
           | conversation. This is not beyond the realm of every day
           | people, it's a pretty accessible problem for many.
        
           | graderjs wrote:
           | You think that's there? There's no desire to control. It's
           | fun to watch. Funny though that you projected your stuff onto
           | it...
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | justmedep wrote:
       | xxx
        
         | CogitoCogito wrote:
         | Why weren't they impressed?
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | phkahler wrote:
       | I'd like to see this extended slightly to give a half-life based
       | on the masses or similar.
       | 
       | Another interesting 3-body problem is the quarks in a proton or
       | neutron. These can be critically stable with the resulting
       | magnetic field adding more stability. But physics as a field has
       | truly abandoned all mechanical models in favor or purely
       | statistical ones.
        
       | f6v wrote:
       | Are Trisolarians happy now?
        
         | rootusrootus wrote:
         | As someone who _just_ finished the first book in the trilogy
         | and started on the second book yesterday, _this_ is the comment
         | I came here to see.
        
         | bpodgursky wrote:
         | Yes, they are throwing a party in Australia. Everyone is
         | invited.
        
           | taneq wrote:
           | I just got to that bit, fun times.
        
           | numpad0 wrote:
           | Does that mean we finally get to know how they look like?
        
             | Borrible wrote:
             | Here you go:
             | 
             | https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/56755/16-amazing-
             | facts-a...
        
             | MaanuAir wrote:
             | In The Redemption of Time, Baoshu offers his view.
             | 
             | It's "only" a fan fiction, albeit approved by Liu Cixin.
             | 
             | It nonetheless gives a nice -- and as expected --
             | unexpected description of them.
        
             | midrus wrote:
             | I always imagined them as some kind of "plants", given how
             | they're described to replicate/combine and how they're
             | dried up and stored and later rehydrated...
        
             | krdl wrote:
             | Daleks with a strobe light on top.
        
             | bhay wrote:
             | For me, I pictured them as the water aliens from Futurama's
             | "My Three Suns".
        
       | paraknight wrote:
       | Send it over to Trisolaris!
        
         | Borrible wrote:
         | Wasn't talking to them the whole problem in the first place?
        
           | Barrin92 wrote:
           | yep I was about to say, first the UFOs and now this, turn the
           | radio beacons off already
        
             | Borrible wrote:
             | Not to say all the other signs of earth those seamonkey tea
             | bag aliens craving for a better future missed with their
             | superior technologies in Alpha Centauris immediate
             | neighborhood.
        
         | pkdpic_y9k wrote:
         | They're gonna feel so silly when they get all the way here to
         | kill us and realize we solved their silly little problem and
         | they have to turn right back around and go home. The looks on
         | their translucent non-existent face things...
        
           | WJW wrote:
           | We should probably get started on an analytical problem to
           | the whole dark forest problem thing too.
        
         | mwcampbell wrote:
         | Practically speaking though, wouldn't the Trisolarans still
         | want to leave their home planet for one that didn't have
         | chaotic eras?
        
           | TuringNYC wrote:
           | I'm sure they want to, but fitting into an electron-sized
           | spaceship, under their current technology would be an issue.
        
         | reedf1 wrote:
         | Much to my pedantic horror upon reading, they don't need the
         | solution to a three body problem, but a four body problem!
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | mastersummoner wrote:
           | Well, did we ever learn whether there were other planets in
           | the system? It's been a minute and it's slipping my mind.
           | 
           | I really loved the entire trilogy though. Each book had a
           | very different vibe and addressed a completely different
           | topic/problem.
        
             | SonicScrub wrote:
             | It's been a while since I've read it, but I seem to recall
             | that there were other planets, but they either got ejected
             | from the system, or fell into one of the stars.
        
           | guerrilla wrote:
           | You sure about that? The fourth body, being so small, can't
           | really effect the motion of the other three; however if you
           | have the evolution of the first three then you can determine
           | the motion of the fourth.
        
             | kragen wrote:
             | Because three-body systems are chaotic, the fourth body
             | _can_ affect the motion of the other three, however small
             | it is.
        
               | im3w1l wrote:
               | Does this mean that you could you use a three body system
               | as a measurement device?
        
               | kragen wrote:
               | I'm not sure.
               | 
               | Measurement devices are designed to be very sensitive to
               | some things and very insensitive to others; for example,
               | you want a clock to be sensitive to how much time has
               | passed but not what the temperature or air pressure are;
               | you want a thermometer to be sensitive to the temperature
               | but not how much time has passed or the air pressure; and
               | you want a barometer to be sensitive to the air pressure
               | but not the temperature or how much time has passed.
               | 
               | It's easy to make a device that's sensitive to all three,
               | like a glass jar partly full of water, upside down in a
               | bowl of water, resting on a bed of gravel in the bottom
               | of the bowl, so that some air is trapped inside the jar.
               | The water level inside the glass jar will go up when the
               | air pressure goes up and down when the air pressure goes
               | down. But it will also go down when the temperature goes
               | down and up when the temperature goes up, because the
               | trapped air will expand and contract. And over time water
               | will evaporate from the bowl, reducing the water level
               | outside the jar, so over time the water level inside the
               | jar will go down.
               | 
               | Usually metrology involves either reducing or eliminating
               | these extra influences (a mercury barometer works the
               | same way as the device described above, but is much less
               | sensitive to temperature because it doesn't have any
               | trapped air; and it's less sensitive to time because
               | mercury evaporates very slowly, and the level of the
               | mercury outside the tube is very low) or balancing them
               | against one another so they precisely cancel out. Chaotic
               | metrology would seem to require a different approach.
        
               | im3w1l wrote:
               | > very sensitive to some things and very insensitive to
               | others
               | 
               | Wow, phrased like that it sure sounds obvious, and yet
               | somehow I never thought about it.
        
               | simonh wrote:
               | Not really because they're already so chaotic you
               | couldn't be sure what divergences from simulation were
               | inherent and which were due to external perturbation.
        
             | forgotpwd16 wrote:
             | Not sure what the discussion is about, but the restricted
             | approximation only works for "insignificant" masses (e.g. a
             | moon if talking about two big planets and a star). And even
             | then for "short" time periods (a few million years). In
             | larger scales even that mass will (I assume you've heard of
             | the butterfly effect) play role.
        
               | thomasz wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Three-
               | Body_Problem_(novel)
        
               | guerrilla wrote:
               | tl;dr three suns, one planet
        
       | mypastself wrote:
       | Now if only we could find a way around the sophon block.
        
         | Borrible wrote:
         | Thats easy, a sophon is just a quantum mechanical plot hole
         | that evaporates instantanely with measurement.
         | 
         | Just look very closely.
        
       | howenterprisey wrote:
       | Is it just me, or do the graphs (page 12 and onward) not match up
       | too well? Note that I totally don't know what I'm looking at.
        
       | ko27 wrote:
       | How good are we at predicting three body movement today with our
       | computers? This is the question I could never find an answer too.
       | Can we do it real time, or few years into the future? Can we do
       | it accurately, to an arbitrary precision? Or is it always fuzzy
       | with statistical outcomes?
        
         | db48x wrote:
         | We can do it accurately, to any precision you care to pay for.
         | Since n-body gravitation is a chaotic system, getting more
         | precise predictions requires more precise measurements of the
         | current state of the solar system. When it's not possible to
         | measure things more precisely, we instead run many simulations
         | with small random perturbations in the current state, then
         | classify the simulations to get probabilities.
        
         | Y_Y wrote:
         | One way to deal with these kinds of issues is to express your
         | initial conditions as intervals (or even distributions) in the
         | sense that you include the a range of possible values, rather
         | than the most probable one (which is normally implicitly done).
         | So if you measure the earth to be (6+-1)e24 kg, then you work
         | with something that looks like [5,7]e24 kg i.e. the segment of
         | the number line corresponding to the possible physical
         | realities that led to your measurement. You'll get a range of
         | different outcomes in the end, and their relative probabilities
         | given your priors. You can do this exactly for some systems,
         | but usually you'll do some monte carlo and hope it's valid.
         | This is similar to classical (linear) error propagation where
         | you carry around an "uncertainty", but chaotic systems don't
         | generally allow you to make the assumption of narrow Gaussians
         | used there.
        
         | aaaaaaaaaaab wrote:
         | It is a chaotic system. Arbitrary small deviations in the
         | initial conditions will result in completely different
         | outcomes. So your simulation will eventually diverge from
         | reality as you cannot measure the initial conditions exactly.
        
           | zelphirkalt wrote:
           | Nitpick + a little more thought: Isn't it more correct to
           | say, that initially slightly different conditions might
           | (instead of "will") result in a very much different outcome?
           | Does chaotic mean, that two states which only differ a little
           | must result in vastly different outcomes? I wonder whether
           | there could be states, which are very similar and some
           | condition drives them to converge again. Or is such a thing
           | impossible?
        
             | aaaaaaaaaaab wrote:
             | Indeed, there can be islands of stability in the phase
             | space of chaotical systems.
        
             | wisty wrote:
             | Often yes. How often happens in practice will usually
             | depend on the size of the solution space.
             | 
             | A chaotic system is pretty much a random number generator,
             | and random number generators can spit out the same number
             | (or nearby numbers) twice (otherwise they wouldn't be
             | random).
        
             | jjgreen wrote:
             | Not to answer your question, but you may be interested to
             | know that chaotic systems can often be effectively
             | controlled by small perturbations:
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Control_of_chaos
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | dekhn wrote:
         | we can simulate the solar system to very high accuracy a few
         | hundred years into the future.
         | 
         | https://www.nature.com/articles/nphys728
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | The system is chaotic so there is a strong dependence on the
         | initial conditions. I suppose that if you don't know these
         | precisely, then at some point even the best computer simulation
         | can't help you much.
        
       | anonymousiam wrote:
       | Apparently also solved by AI less than two years ago.
       | 
       | https://www.livescience.com/ai-solves-three-body-problem-fas...
        
       | isoprophlex wrote:
       | Weren't there already several solutions known? Wikipedia seems to
       | think so. I find it hard to see if there's anything here that
       | makes this different from the several cases mentioned on
       | wikipedia. The linked paper was too dense for me, sadly...
       | 
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three-body_problem
        
         | em-bee wrote:
         | the wikipedia page lists several solutions for special cases
         | and a general solution, which is unusable.
         | 
         | the article talks about an effective solution, which would mark
         | a major step forward.
        
       | cyberpsybin wrote:
       | It's an already solved problem given you set the initial
       | conditions.
        
         | forgotpwd16 wrote:
         | I guess this is downvoted because the initial conditions allude
         | to numerical integration which isn't considered a proper
         | "solution". Nevertheless, indeed the three-body (as well the
         | n-body albeit with restrictions) has an analytic solution in
         | form of power series. When people say it doesn't have one they
         | mean in a closed-form. The research here isn't a solution (it
         | doesn't allow one to find the exact state of the bodies at some
         | specific later time) but rather a stochastic predictor of the
         | behavior of the system.
        
           | tgv wrote:
           | But a power series is not what I'd call effective, which is
           | what the headline stresses. It's also another type of
           | solution (a probabilistic one).
        
       | thayne wrote:
       | > one cannot simply specify the system evolution over long time-
       | scales.
       | 
       | While practically true, this isn't technically correct. If you
       | knew the masses, velocities, and location with infinite precision
       | and could perform all operations with infinite precision, (also
       | assuming no external interaction and quantum mechanics doesn't
       | come into it), you could know the state of the system for long
       | time periods. The problem is we can't measure things that
       | accurately.
        
         | beervirus wrote:
         | It's true even with arbitrarily good measurements when you get
         | to the level of quantum mechanics.
        
           | amluto wrote:
           | If you know the initial wave function (which you can't
           | _measure_ , but you could in principal choose and set up
           | three bodies accordingly), then quantum mechanics is
           | deterministic. If you throw the standard model in, you get a
           | mess, though.
        
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