[HN Gopher] Pfizer Moderna Vaccine Studies Hurt by Placebo Recip...
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       Pfizer Moderna Vaccine Studies Hurt by Placebo Recipients Getting
       Immunized
        
       Author : g42gregory
       Score  : 43 points
       Date   : 2021-08-06 21:33 UTC (1 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.npr.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.npr.org)
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | AuthorizedCust wrote:
       | This is old news, from February.
       | 
       | A Google search on _pfizer moderna studies placebo_ doesn't turn
       | up much of anything beyond similar articles. I wonder if the
       | close scrutiny of the vaccines in the months following have been
       | enough to allay concerns?
        
       | devit wrote:
       | Why not use unvaccinated people from the general population?
       | 
       | There would be some selection bias, but it's going to be
       | irrelevant for most things.
        
       | hprotagonist wrote:
       | truly, a problem you want to have.
        
         | NonContro wrote:
         | Not really, because if there are long-term side effects, we
         | need to have a control group.
         | 
         | For example, the vaccine used for the 2009 Swine Flu:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pandemrix
         | 
         | "Pandemrix was found to be associated with narcolepsy from
         | observational studies, increasing the risk of narcolepsy by
         | 5-14 times in children and 2-7 times in adults. The increased
         | risk of narcolepsy due to vaccination in children and
         | adolescents was around 1 incident per 18,400 doses."
         | 
         | If you don't have a large section of the population
         | unvaccinated, you can't conclusively prove that the vaccine was
         | the cause.
        
           | markus92 wrote:
           | Not necessarily true. The incidence rates of those are well-
           | known. Rarer side effects are impossible to find by comparing
           | vaccinated/unvaccinated in a phase 3 and need larger groups
           | to be found. That's routine, though. Look at the VITT for the
           | Adenoviral vector vaccines, no strict control group was
           | necessary to identify that.
        
           | hprotagonist wrote:
           | "Problems you want to have" are still _problems_ , after all.
           | 
           | It's just, which would you rather have: a perfectly run trial
           | because your vaccine efficacy is so low that your control
           | group doesn't feel incentivized to get vaccinated? Or a
           | vaccine that works well enough to quell a pandemic, causing
           | your control group to jump ship and trash your statistical
           | power?
        
             | guscost wrote:
             | Either way, the higher-order effects will continue and
             | cascade in perpetuity. The world is not a well-controlled
             | experiment, and if you think there is an obvious "better"
             | choice here which can be separated from all the context,
             | then you have no idea how the world works.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | H8crilA wrote:
             | There was a comment here that got deleted. It had something
             | cool I haven't seen before: a risk calculator/estimator for
             | Covid (both death and hospital admission), for the UK:
             | 
             | https://qcovid.org/Calculation
        
               | chiefalchemist wrote:
               | Interesting. Especially that it uses a number of
               | different "properties" (e.g., post code) to "fine tune"
               | the calculation.
        
           | jdavis703 wrote:
           | In this case, there is a suspected autoimmune link between
           | the similarity of the inactivated viral protein and a brain
           | protein that is associated with sleep regulation. The real
           | question to ask isn't whether the placebo group was better
           | off, but whether people infected with Swine Flu had a lower
           | risk of narcolepsy than vaccine recipients.
        
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       (page generated 2021-08-06 23:00 UTC)