[HN Gopher] Where has all the productivity gone?
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Where has all the productivity gone?
        
       Author : wellpast
       Score  : 102 points
       Date   : 2021-07-31 13:04 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.johndcook.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.johndcook.com)
        
       | guilhas wrote:
       | We are at a time where trust is low. People want something govs
       | and companies want something else. Left and right completely
       | entrenched. While we keep fighting each other we waste a lot of
       | time. Because things are changing to fast, so everyone keeps
       | reinventing the wheel
        
       | nixpulvis wrote:
       | I'd say there's a Great Desynchronization.
       | 
       | Not only are more and more producers simply out to enrich
       | themselves, but social conditions make workers more and more
       | likely to be at each other over topics unrelated to their work.
       | It plays out like destructive interference in phase, where a
       | massive amplitude in effort is taken on all accounts, but the sum
       | is 0.
        
       | skohan wrote:
       | > The Great Dissipation.
       | 
       | Yeah I was consulting for about 5 years and this is something I
       | saw inside a lot of companies, especially when they get sizable
       | funding: they become simultaneously obsessed with hiring and
       | process, and very little real work gets done.
       | 
       | To be honest, I think it might be an inevitability of the
       | productivity boom. Thanks to technology and automation, it's
       | possible for a single individual to accomplish what it might have
       | taken dozens or hundreds of people to do a generation or so ago.
       | 
       | When it becomes possible for for a small subset of the population
       | to create enough value to support essentially everyone else, it
       | it just changes the parameters of the social game we are all
       | playing. When essentially all the manpower is needed to progress
       | society, the optimal strategy is to reward the most productive
       | individuals to incentivize others to increase their own
       | productivity. When there's an excess of productivity, the optimal
       | strategy may be to put yourself in a position to capture the
       | value of those few productive individuals.
       | 
       | But I think it's also something we can try to address via IP law.
       | Currently we don't do a very good job of incetivizing creating
       | something new. The current state of patent law essentially serves
       | to bully small players out of the market who cannot afford to
       | defend against dubious patent claims. Copyright is used as a
       | cudgel to keep small creators from iterating on culture. In a lot
       | of ways, it's fair to see the game as rigged, and to come to the
       | conclusion that it's not really worth it to create something new.
       | 
       | If you ask me, the single best thing we could do to improve
       | productivity would be to make it easier for people to own the
       | products of their creativity.
        
         | MattGaiser wrote:
         | > this is something I saw inside a lot of companies, especially
         | when they get sizable funding: they become simultaneously
         | obsessed with hiring and process
         | 
         | A lot of it just seems to be driven by strange attempts at
         | optimization. For example, at my company, there was a lot of
         | time spent on figuring out developer metrics (for all four of
         | us on the team at its peak) and cost accountability.
         | 
         | On the cost accountability side, one thing that has happened
         | three times is that the developers have been idled so the
         | project will not go over budget in time tracking. We were still
         | paid. We were still at work. But to keep an internal budget on
         | track, we were told to drop our tools and sit there.
        
           | skohan wrote:
           | Yeah this also sounds like part of the "MBA-ification" of
           | business.
           | 
           | I think a lot of this comes from a reasonable goal to have:
           | if can find appropriate metrics which represent the work your
           | company is doing, this should give you a reasonably objective
           | way of measuring how different interventions move you closer
           | to or farther from your goal.
           | 
           | But I think the problem is that actually finding and
           | implementing those metrics is a bit of a pipe dream in most
           | cases. A lot of these metrics which people come up with to
           | try to measure productivity - story points, ticket flow,
           | time-on-task - are all fairly subjective, and not very good
           | proxies for measuring actual value creation.
           | 
           | I think it gets worse in orgs where there's a disconnect
           | between management and the workforce which is actually
           | getting things done. Often times, upper management _only_ has
           | these artificial metrics to evaluate the performance of a
           | team. A lot of company cultures put management in a bit of a
           | bubble, so middle managers have more of a focus on
           | conversations with other people in that management layer, who
           | are metrics focused, rather than dealing with development
           | teams, who are actually engaged with the product.
           | 
           | As a result, the "ground truth" for management becomes the
           | metrics, and you start to see really silly things happen
           | because the metrics matter more than the product.
        
             | knightofmars wrote:
             | I witnessed what you are describing first-hand. Some years
             | ago, in a job far away, the overall account manager for my
             | region managed everything through a single budget
             | spreadsheet. Decisions were made entirely based on cost
             | without any actual thought to the outcome of the decision.
             | While in the middle of cutting cost, the company failed to
             | deliver some important contracts that led to the company
             | being penalized (to the tune of tens of millions of
             | dollars). The irony, if they'd just spent a fraction of the
             | penalty amount hiring people, they would have been able to
             | deliver on the contracts and avoided the penalty.
        
             | Jtsummers wrote:
             | You Can't Improve What You Can't Measure Disease
             | 
             | YCIWYCM is a great way to kill productivity and performance
             | improvement efforts when taken too far. Sometimes, you've
             | just got to go with your gut. The amount of effort needed
             | to make measurements, especially for less tangible
             | knowledge work, can _kill_ productivity overall.
             | 
             | Often, the measurable parts are at the conclusion of a
             | particular effort, the total time it took to get there and
             | the value of the output. But it's not necessarily possible
             | to meaningfully measure the internal process of reaching it
             | when (again, knowledge work specific) half the time may be
             | spent _thinking_ about the thing. How do you measure that?
             | How do you indicate progress when you 're one "aha" moment
             | away from success but can't force one to occur? Synthesis,
             | what most programmers do, the combining of ideas to form a
             | new theory [Naur1985] is hard to do mechanically. It can be
             | done, for a lot of work, but not necessarily for
             | everything. But because it's not a purely mechanical
             | process (in contrast to a lot of other business processes
             | or physical manufacturing work where you have _more_
             | mechanical work and _less_ synthesis) it 's hard to
             | identify useful metrics and collect them.
             | 
             | When the work is more mechanical ("We've done this before,
             | but...") then you can start finding more places to measure
             | and gain useful insights. But the more novelty that occurs,
             | the more you need to collaborate with each other or spend
             | time in thought, the harder it is to find useful
             | measurements.
             | 
             | [Naur1985] https://pages.cs.wisc.edu/~remzi/Naur.pdf
        
         | 127 wrote:
         | It's indeed very notable that there's a lot of talk how to make
         | people generate more value to others, and nothing about how
         | people find ways to consume the value that others create.
        
       | jbverschoor wrote:
       | It went to:
       | 
       | - distractions
       | 
       | - the plethora of (min)information
       | 
       | - the lack of proper books, guids and documentation
       | 
       | - the twisted fact that everybody needs to be rich and famous
       | 
       | - the constant chasing of revenue instead of science, art,
       | philosophy
       | 
       | We're living in a fake bubble of bullshit, and everybody wants to
       | be the polished turd.
        
       | boomka wrote:
       | the article is a bit weird, I think it refers to productivity
       | paradox: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Productivity_paradox
       | 
       | But it is a well studied topic, with much more than 5 possible
       | explanations offered for it.
       | 
       | I personally think the whole thing is a bit of a nothingburger
       | that comes about as a simple consequence of how we measure
       | productivity, which is via measuring how much money is paid to
       | people. And since monetory / fiscal policy more or less ensures
       | that all the people are always paid something for something,
       | productivity growth is manifested as invention of new service
       | industries, from personal trainers to dietologists. In other
       | words, our productivity metrics mostly measure hours worked.
       | 
       | Better metric would be how many hours worked it takes to produce
       | a ton of nickel, or a bushel of corn, or a typical family car.
       | And those number have been going down consistently, suggestive of
       | strong productivity growth and no paradox.
        
         | wussboy wrote:
         | Do you have links or suggestions for stats about "hours worked
         | per bushel of grain etc."? I'm interested in this area.
        
           | boomka wrote:
           | something like this: https://sdgdata.gov.uk/2-3-1/
           | 
           | look at the table of labour productivity, it has been growing
           | consistently and has almost tripled between 1973 and today
        
       | fhssn1 wrote:
       | 'Why aren't we far more productive?' sounds not too different
       | from 'Why don't we have infinite growth on a finite planet?'
       | 
       | - There is not enough meaningful democratizable work. Most work
       | is either menial, or challenging. And I'm not even talking about
       | the third kind of work [1].
       | 
       | - Menial work is getting more and more automated.
       | 
       | - Challenging work doesn't necessarily scale with human resources
       | beyond a certain point (e.g., If 1000 researchers are already
       | working on cancer, increasing the number to 10,000 isn't
       | necessarily going to help find a cure faster).
       | 
       | [1] https://www.strike.coop/bullshit-jobs/
        
         | AtlasBarfed wrote:
         | Our processing speed is way up, but I believe our cost of
         | energy has more or less not grown substantially.
         | 
         | In fact, with proper economic cost accounting like
         | externalities as we try to deal with global warming, costs are
         | going up.
         | 
         | Solar/wind are gradually starting to improve things in
         | meaningful ways but they are a fundamentally different grid
         | design.
         | 
         | Perhaps a modular LFTR reactor design can beat what Solar/Wind
         | will settle at on an EROEI measure once solar/wind are out of
         | their main economies of scale and techonological development
         | curves.
         | 
         | But what we are entering for the next century is clearly one of
         | resource limitations, and working much harder to more
         | efficiently use them.
        
         | failuser wrote:
         | Why do you think that 10x increase in cancer researchers would
         | not help find the cure faster? Do you think there is one
         | supergenius destined to find the solution and he is already
         | working on it? 10x researches can try out 10x approaches or
         | concentrate of specific types of cancer. From what I
         | understand, most of actual research is done by hungry grad
         | students and the higher your position get the more time you
         | spend of trying to keep or expand the funding. I know that
         | keeping the grad students overworked and hungry keeps many
         | grifters out of science, but at what cost?
        
           | lostcolony wrote:
           | '10x researches can try out 10x approaches'
           | 
           | Can they though, and is that helpful? Is there sufficient
           | communication between everyone in the field to ensure no one
           | is investigating the same things? Is that still 10x, given
           | the communication overhead in ensuring what you're wanting to
           | start doing isn't already being worked on by one of the 9999
           | others? Are their 10x as many approaches that can be
           | investigated in parallel at all times?
           | 
           | The lessons from the mythical man month still apply even with
           | research.
        
             | failuser wrote:
             | Those are all general thoughts and results would be
             | different for different problems. Some can be parallelized
             | for millions of people, some can not be at all.
             | Parallelization is as much about throughput as latency.
             | Nine women can not gestate a child in one month, one can
             | apparently gestate eight in nine months.
        
           | fhssn1 wrote:
           | The numbers 1000 and 10,000 are just to make a point. It
           | could be 10,000 vs 100,000. I just don't know.
           | 
           | I've added "beyond a certain point" to 10x. So e.g.,
           | increasing from 10 to 100 helps. 100 to 1000 helps. 1000 to
           | 10,000? maybe. 10,000 to 100,000? maybe not. And so on (like
           | approaching diminishing returns). (again the numbers are for
           | illustration, and would vary with the nature of work).
        
           | wpasc wrote:
           | IMO Joel Spolsky kind of covers a possible answer to your
           | question in his blog post "Hitting the High Notes"[0]. While
           | I'm sure there's plenty of counter examples, it's important
           | to note a wide ranging variety of discoveries and
           | breakthroughs that have come from individuals and small teams
           | that have. In many of these cases, that person or small team
           | is uniquely breaking against an otherwise agreed upon
           | convention or state of the field.
           | 
           | 1,000 people who agree on a paradigm which may be false is
           | not helped by another 9,000 people who agree with that same
           | paradigm. In the era of Einstein, how many physicists
           | accepted the traditional view of space and time? throwing
           | more physicists at the same problem probably doesn't mean
           | getting more Einsteins.
           | 
           | Potential example for today (though IANAD nor Biologists),
           | how many scientists and researchers agree upon removing
           | plaques as a treatment for alzheimers? how long has that
           | theory been the dominant narrative in spite of failed
           | treatments at removing plaques? how many individuals wanted
           | to try/research something different but all the other grants
           | went to people pursuing the held narrative because the
           | grantors also held that same narrative?
           | 
           | There's countless of companies where scaling up # of people
           | just adds noise and bureaucracy and smaller companies with
           | strong-minded individuals were able to break through.
           | 
           | [0]: https://www.joelonsoftware.com/2005/07/25/hitting-the-
           | high-n...
        
             | sprafa wrote:
             | another way to look at it is that cargo cult thinking is
             | the default mode for human thinking. This is something I've
             | noticed recently and increasingly believe to be true. The
             | vast majority of people do NOT take the time to build an
             | opinion from weighing multiple sources of information,
             | looking for counter arguments etc. Cargo cult is the
             | default mode for a civilization.
        
             | Frost1x wrote:
             | I've worked in research most my career and I tend to agree.
             | The issue is that throwing more people in the same narrow
             | approach most likely won't help if that approach is off to
             | begin with. It has been promising and we've been getting
             | and still get some returns out of it, but is it possible
             | we're stuck in a local minima of the solution space in
             | terms of representing the real system were trying to
             | understand and manipulate? We of course can't know and
             | those who are captains of a discipline and the funding
             | agencies that decide who gets funded and don't steer to
             | focus on narrow incremental changes. Some of this has to do
             | with deeper business management steeping into basic
             | scientific research, where I believe, it doesn't belong
             | because it thinks in the wrong time horizons and has the
             | wrong goals.
             | 
             | High risk, novel approaches often aren't funded or few
             | opportunities exist for them. There is good reason for this
             | because it can be abused by those just looking for fun or
             | easy work while labeling it novel. It may also encourage
             | fringe sciences that are bordering on psuedo-scientific
             | work. They incorporate a bit of science but then go off in
             | directions that are almost provably wrong. Distinguishing
             | which novel approaches seem like genuinely novel realistic
             | and non abusive proposals isn't always easy. In some cases
             | they're just laughably wrong because there are so many
             | assumptions baked in that are almost provably wrong or at
             | least self inconsistent. On the other hand, some aren't
             | quite so easy and involve a significant amount of effort
             | and insight to understand exactly what's being proposed.
             | This is often where paradigm shifting research really
             | occurs.
             | 
             | It can take incredibly brilliant scientists with enough
             | creativity to see the opportunity in a proposal and approve
             | it and those aren't the people often awarding proposals. On
             | the flip side, most of these sort of proposals, no matter
             | how valid and novel they may be, simply aren't going to be
             | correct and the reviewer is right to take a more critical
             | eye. The novel approaches are inherently high risk and most
             | will be wrong. I still think we need to fund these
             | approaches. I've been involved in proposals that seemed
             | only _slightly_ novel in direction from accepted paradigms
             | and reviewer responses came back (some agencies return
             | anonymized responses) in a way that showed they clearly
             | didn 't understand enough about the domain to even make the
             | assessment when their critiques were clearly invalid, they
             | just didn't agree with the proposal approach. Maybe they
             | were right the overall approach was off and created a lame
             | excuse, maybe they were wrong, but this tendency to be risk
             | averse even in the few funding opportunities that were
             | clearly budgeted to be high risk shows the culture we have
             | in modern science.
             | 
             | The burden of responsibility often lies on those proposing
             | these huge shifts and we may be reaching points in some
             | domains of human knowledge where the burden of proof is
             | simply too high for an individual to provide for a given
             | novel idea. Imagine if Peter Higgs alone had to provide
             | evidence to his idea. It wasn't until so many other
             | iteratative approaches were exhausted that particle physics
             | decided they had to start testing novel other options. How
             | much time, effort, even careers were wasted chasing other
             | ideas? Should science be depth first search, breadth first
             | search, a mixture of the two to try and hedge out bets that
             | if we are on the wrong direction we might find a better
             | paradigm in parallel we can jump to when we're stuck, or
             | perhaps a different heuristic?
             | 
             | Then the really really difficult question, for me: if we
             | support a mixture model of say BFS, DFS (and perhaps a
             | handful of others) for the search space of acquirable
             | knowledge, who should decide resourcing allocations for the
             | search mixture model? What is the best set of approaches
             | and resourcing? Science already incorporates complex search
             | mixture approaches for knowledge at various levels but it
             | seems at the highest level (how we resource stuff) it
             | doesn't, it's incredibly iterative, risk averse, and
             | focused on short time horizons for returns on investment.
        
             | failuser wrote:
             | Resource allocation is another issue. But even if the other
             | teams try to independently replicate results (imagine such
             | luxury), that would be useful. The more people there are in
             | the field the probability of challenging the status quo is
             | higher. Also why scale up the number of companies? You can
             | increase the number of startups trying something new.
        
           | User23 wrote:
           | Cancer really isn't one disease. It's thousands if not
           | millions or maybe even billions of diseases that share some
           | similarities. The odds of a silver bullet cure are
           | effectively zero, but there's plenty of opportunity to help
           | sufferers die with rather than of. It's a game of incremental
           | improvement so it's likely that greater investment would
           | produce reasonable returns.
        
             | reader_mode wrote:
             | >The odds of a silver bullet cure are effectively zero
             | 
             | A way to kill a specific type of cells doesn't sound
             | impossible (zero).
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | frankbreetz wrote:
           | I think there are so only so many possible solutions, the
           | first researcher will choose to researcher the possible
           | solution with the highest probability or working. As you add
           | more researchers they will research less probabil solutions.
           | It is the law of diminishing returns.
        
             | failuser wrote:
             | Scientific research is not a high school problem where the
             | clear algorithm is known. A lot of approaches need to tries
             | before valid ones are found. And for cancer a single
             | approach is most likely not enough.
        
               | frankbreetz wrote:
               | The grandparent talks about going from 1,000 to to
               | 10,000, not a single researcher. Are you implying the law
               | of diminishing returns doesn't apply to research?
        
           | 3grdlurker wrote:
           | If you have a team of programmers who always miss their
           | deadlines, will increasing the headcount _necessarily_ make
           | them a team that always meets the deadlines? No, because
           | other than having more people means more distractions and
           | need for communication, there might be other problems, such
           | as technical debt, or miscommunicated requirements, or
           | inexperience, or outright unreasonable demands.
           | 
           | The only variable that increasing the headcount necessarily
           | improves is the headcount itself.
        
             | cercatrova wrote:
             | No but increasing the number of teams who are all now
             | competing with each other would probably allow us to see
             | progress scaling with the number of teams, not necessarily
             | putting everyone on the same team.
        
               | 3grdlurker wrote:
               | Science discoveries don't just happen because there are
               | more people "competing" to solve a problem. The more
               | likely outcome of what you're saying is that you'd only
               | have more teams competing, sure, but to _redo_ each other
               | 's work.
        
               | username90 wrote:
               | They don't even compete to solve the problem, they
               | compete for funding. People who are better at politics
               | gets more funding, so adding more people could even be
               | net negative with them draining up all the funding from
               | those who do the actual research.
        
       | jollybean wrote:
       | ? Productivity is to a great extent a measure of producer
       | surplus.
       | 
       | If you can sell something at a higher prices, often that leads to
       | 'greater productivity' when really it isn't.
       | 
       | So if consumers have more buying power, and we make the same
       | amount and quality of stuff, but sell at lower prices, consumers
       | are getting a better surplus i.e. 'consumer profit' ... then
       | that's where productivity can 'disappear' to. Literally higher
       | standard of living.
       | 
       | If we measured in some objective price - or - we just measured in
       | terms of 'quality of things produced' we'd see that better.
        
       | breck wrote:
       | 6) We've made laws that greatly restrict our abilities to use
       | these magical new technologies in their most productive ways.
       | 
       | Google Books was the canary in the coal mine. Remember when
       | Google was going to organize all the world's information and make
       | it accessible and useful? Then the copyright lobby attacked, and
       | over a decade later that project (which is so _obviously_ a
       | quantum leap in terms of what it could do for human productivity)
       | remains on pause (or permanently abandoned? not sure).
       | 
       | People today have access to an endless supply of information
       | noise. If you want quality signal, it's still a trickle.
       | 
       | All the best Internet ideas now are not getting built because of
       | copyright law.
        
         | egypturnash wrote:
         | And the problem here is that writing a good book on a thing is
         | something that takes _time_ and _effort_. Usually enough that
         | it 's a full-time or part-time job.
         | 
         | While I am no fan of the copyright maximalism that Disney and
         | other corporations employing armies of people doing work-for-
         | hire have turned copyright law into, I am also a person eking
         | out a living as an artist, and I would like to be able to say
         | "please don't use this thing I made to promote viewpoints
         | inimical to my existence, please don't sell copies of this
         | thing I made without asking my permission first and working out
         | licensing terms", and even "please don't reproduce this thing
         | at all without giving me some money". And I would also like to
         | continue to make enough money off of my work for my bills to be
         | paid. I've found that Patreon's enabling me to give a lot of
         | stuff away, but if I wanted to make some of my work a scarce
         | good, that's a choice I'd prefer to be able to enforce in the
         | courts.
         | 
         | Or perhaps more succinctly: if you want information to be free,
         | you need to figure out how to free its gatherers, tenders, and
         | creators from worrying about their bills.
         | 
         | If you think you have a better idea for freeing information-
         | creators from worrying about their finances than
         | "Kickstarter/Patreon except XXX" or "put ads on all the
         | things", then you might have a project worth chasing.
        
       | robjan wrote:
       | There is a huge assumption here that productivity isn't
       | increasing, which is false. Economic output per hour worked has
       | been steadily increasing in every country since their respective
       | industrial revolutions.
       | 
       | When you go to the source tweet, it turns out that it's comparing
       | the developed world to the developing world. Developing economies
       | will always grow faster, but not necessarily efficiently, because
       | there's more low hanging fruit to pick. These low hanging fruit
       | can be picked by throwing more people at the problem (increasing
       | workforce participation or working longer hours).
       | 
       | One example is how much more time it takes to build
       | infrastructure in America vs China. If you look at the data[0],
       | productivity in both countries is growing at roughly the same
       | rate. It pretty much invalidates the assertion in the blog and
       | the source tweet.
       | 
       | [0] https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-
       | ho...
        
         | lkrubner wrote:
         | Those are PPP numbers, which means they are a total joke. The
         | graph you post does not show the post war boom, nor does it
         | show the productivity stagnation after 1973. The USA went from
         | 3% per year productivity growth, before 1973, to 1.5%
         | productivity growth after 1973. None of that is visible in the
         | chart because the chart is using PPP numbers.
         | 
         | But, as a separate issue, the above essay is focused on
         | computers, and so it implicitly raises the Solow Productivity
         | Paradox: why don't computers seem to add anything to
         | productivity?
         | 
         | See:
         | 
         | The Solow Productivity Paradox: What Do Computers Do to
         | Productivity?
         | 
         | https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-solow-productivity-pa...
         | 
         | McKinsey wrote this in 2018, predicting a productivity boom was
         | coming soon, though of course this prediction has been made
         | often since 1973, and the only time it was even slightly true
         | was during the boom in big box retail 1995-2005:
         | 
         | https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/mckinsey-digital...
         | 
         | It's well known that in the 1800s the telegraph and then the
         | telephone allowed a large scale re-organization of capital, and
         | capital invested heavily to take advantage of the new
         | technologies, but it was impossible to see a productivity
         | benefit. These technologies allowed new systems of control, but
         | not necessarily any productivity benefit. Since 1970 computer
         | network technologies have offered a similar reorganization, but
         | they are vastly more powerful than the telephone, and they
         | allowed a re-organization that was vastly more profound than
         | any previous reorganization of capital. Millions of jobs were
         | outsourced to India, China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and then
         | Brazil, Russia, Romania, etc.
        
         | babesh wrote:
         | https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/labor-productivity-per-ho...
         | 
         | Are you sure about that? Are you measuring in absolute GDP per
         | person or rate of growth per person?
        
         | fidesomnes wrote:
         | As much as I dislike Chinas ruling party, their government is a
         | model of efficiency when compared to the USA and it mostly gets
         | out of peoples way. Contrast that with US government where
         | taxes, vehicle registration, and judicial process is perhaps
         | decades behind despite having more resources. There is
         | something about complacency common to all democracies that
         | never up well. The old refrain "at least Mussolini made the
         | trains run on time" applies just as much today.
        
         | hn_throwaway_99 wrote:
         | > These low hanging fruit can be picked by throwing more people
         | at the problem (increasing workforce participation or working
         | longer hours).
         | 
         | I haven't read the article yet, but note increasing workforce
         | participation or working hours doesn't increase productivity -
         | that just increases the denominator for the productivity
         | calculation, and unless it increases the numerator faster there
         | is no productivity increase.
        
           | robjan wrote:
           | This is why I said "not necessarily efficiently". At a very
           | macro level, you can increase economic output by either
           | working more or increasing efficiency (productivity per
           | hour).
        
         | onlyrealcuzzo wrote:
         | GDP doesn't take into consideration public debt.
         | 
         | If public debt is up 100% and GDP has barely changed - I don't
         | think that's cause for celebration that GDP / hours worked = we
         | are more productive.
         | 
         | I'm not saying this is the case. But people use GDP a lot to
         | make points like this - and it's important to talk about how
         | much public debt is increasing GDP.
        
           | skywal_l wrote:
           | If you are in a country where pensions are managed by the
           | state, your contributions are considered taxes. If you are in
           | a country with a private pension system, your contributions
           | are in the GDP!
           | 
           | The GDP is not a scientific measure. It is an ideological
           | concept.
           | 
           | It doesn't mean it is useless, but it should not be taken at
           | face value.
        
             | karatinversion wrote:
             | Taxed income isn't subtracted from income in national
             | accounts though...?
        
         | coldtea wrote:
         | > _There is a huge assumption here that productivity isn 't
         | increasing, which is false._
         | 
         | Actually the assumption in the post is the exact opposite: that
         | productivity has increased.
         | 
         | The question it poses then is "so what do we have to show for
         | it?".
        
           | epicureanideal wrote:
           | It might be that we're spending the increased productivity on
           | temporary things rather than long-lived things. For example,
           | spending $1M on keeping a retired cancer patient alive.
           | That's good for them, good for their family, good for lots of
           | people to feel like they'll have a chance of survival if they
           | get it, but it doesn't cause a new bridge to be built, etc.
           | The technology improves, the knowledge improves, but those
           | things aren't visible on a skyline.
           | 
           | It might also be things like higher quality food, varieties
           | of food, yachts for the rich that most of us don't ever see,
           | or things like that, things that are either consumed and
           | don't accumulate wealth, or things that are relatively long
           | lived and durable but not part of most people's lives because
           | most of the gains have gone to the top 1%.
           | 
           | Other ideas: paper pushing services like handling
           | unnecessarily large volumes of litigation just to run a
           | business, which requires work and causes GDP to go up but
           | doesn't produce actual products.
        
           | IkmoIkmo wrote:
           | Cheap clothes, cheap flights, cheap music, movies, cheap
           | food, longer life expectancy, bigger homes with smaller
           | household sizes, cheap washing machines and various
           | appliances, all with far fewer working hours, and far less
           | household work while you're off-work.
           | 
           | I'm definitely better off than my parents or grandparents.
           | Hell, we have stories in our family where my uncles would
           | shower at the communal bathhouse cause their home didn't have
           | a bath nor hot water. Everyone used to wear hand-me-downs. We
           | used to send cassette tapes to family abroad because
           | international calls were so expensive. We flew every few
           | years instead of multiple times a year. We saved up for CDs,
           | and I literally never, ever went out for dinner to a
           | restaurant (outside of a rare holiday) with my parents. My
           | dad lost both parents as a child to old age, my grandfather
           | worked 6, sometimes 7 days a week, my grandmother spent
           | almost the entire day running the household (e.g. washing
           | clothes by hand), they had no retirement and lived like that
           | till death.
           | 
           | I'm often surprised about this idea we've got it worse off.
           | The conversations usually revolve around housing, healthcare
           | and college having become drastically more expensive.
           | (although, never normalised for interest rates that dropped
           | from 15% to 3%, homes that average 2x larger than 60 years
           | ago with fewer people, life expectancy increasing by a decade
           | since 1950 etc etc). Life isn't better in all respects, but
           | on the whole I certainly wouldn't want to trade with past
           | generations. And a lot of that boils down to productivity
           | allowing new measures of wealth for many.
           | 
           | If we look at it on a worldwide scale, the difference is
           | much, much more pronounced. Many lower income countries saw
           | massive productivity improvements. We shouldn't forget that
           | the past 3-4 decades have been all about globalising markets.
           | Factory workers in the US now compete with those in China. IT
           | staff the UK is competing with IT staff in India. Technology
           | is relatively mobile and goes across borders easily. You
           | cannot measure ceteris paribus productivity improvements in
           | terms of gdp per capita in the west without correcting for
           | increased competition abroad (e.g. in China). And in doing
           | so, you will find that there's even bigger productivity
           | increases in lower/middle income countries, too.
        
             | coldtea wrote:
             | > _Cheap clothes, cheap flights, cheap music, movies, cheap
             | food, longer life expectancy, bigger homes with smaller
             | household sizes, cheap washing machines and various
             | appliances, all with far fewer working hours, and far less
             | household work while you 're off-work._
             | 
             | So, not much then.
             | 
             | For the consumer devices, cheap = disposable, as opposed to
             | consumer devices you bought and could use for decades.
             | 
             | Likewise, cheap clothes mean diminishing quality
             | (regardless of price bracket, from $5 items to $200 brand-
             | name ones, they are all most often than not made in
             | sweatshops in the developing world, often with the same
             | materials and processes). Plus tons of clothes thrown,
             | which is an environmental attrocity.
             | 
             | (As for cheap music and movies, that's a byproduct of one
             | basic delevopment: high speed internet, which enabled a new
             | delivery method. Not the best example of an increase in
             | productivity, not to mention those are passtimes).
             | 
             | As for "longer life expectancy", all accounts I've read say
             | that we got that early on in the 20th century, so 100+
             | years ago, and it was due to running water, bathrooms, hand
             | washing, and a few such things. Low hanging fruit.
             | Certainly not due to the last 70+ years of "increased
             | productivity".
             | 
             | Meanwhile we pay more for healthcare, housing, and
             | education (the 3 things that matter more), wages have
             | stagnated since the 70s, and work-life balance has gotten
             | infinitely worse, depression ever more prevalent, the
             | middle and working classes have collapsed, and so on. No
             | savings and no chance of retirement at any reasonable age
             | for the majority as well.
             | 
             | > _I 'm often surprised about this idea we've got it worse
             | off._
             | 
             | Probably it's from people who are not impressed by more and
             | cheaper trinkets.
        
         | alexgmcm wrote:
         | I think the tweet linked to by OP is using the colloquial
         | definition of productivity (i.e. I can get more stuff done) and
         | uses examples of computer technology etc.
         | 
         | This isn't to be confused with the economic definition of GDP
         | per hour worked - which has far more to do with the sectors of
         | industry that a country has.
         | 
         | After all, a few financiers doing million-dollar deals is
         | always going to generate more GDP per hour than coltan miners,
         | even though it's not obvious which is actually generating more
         | wealth. Robert F Kennedy famously said the GNP "measures
         | everything in short, except that which makes life worthwhile".
        
           | failuser wrote:
           | You increase what you optimize for. GDP increase is the
           | stated goal of most current societies and they work to
           | achieve it.
        
       | superkuh wrote:
       | The material and capital gains of productivity improvements since
       | the 1970s have gone to mega-corporations and their owners instead
       | of to workers.
        
       | MattGaiser wrote:
       | > The Great Dissipation.
       | 
       | One of the shocks about entering the world of work was how little
       | I often got done in any given day because I was in a meeting or
       | had to deal with some form or was waiting on permission or many
       | other things.
       | 
       | I have had whole days disappear with nothing much to show for
       | them at the end. I am sure I am not the only one. And even though
       | it is almost assuredly known that this happens, nobody seems to
       | care.
        
         | dazc wrote:
         | I had a job once where I did nothing except for when I would
         | find things to do in order to quell the boredom.
         | 
         | When I tell people this they are usually envious but I always
         | say 'be careful what you wish for'. For me it was the most
         | miserable period of my life.
         | 
         | I've had depression and been homeless - that job was worse.
        
         | satyrnein wrote:
         | Meanwhile, one of the great shocks that I experienced when
         | becoming a manager was that I had no better solution to keeping
         | a large group of people aligned and unblocked than a bunch of
         | meetings. Sure, I tinkered around the edges a bit, but it's not
         | fundamentally different. Solutions welcome!
        
           | strictfp wrote:
           | Maintain a backlog for them, at least an idea backlog
        
       | aranchelk wrote:
       | The power of presupposition in questions: we're all trying to
       | figure out where productivity has gone without questioning if it
       | has in fact gone.
        
       | RandomLensman wrote:
       | Almost feels like what is meant here is some kind of
       | effectiveness at solving problems and coming up with new "stuff"
       | - not productivity in a classical sense,
       | 
       | From my observation there is something to it as most efforts are
       | directed towards efficiency which is much easier to tackle
       | (removing frictions etc.). Effectiveness is often a far less
       | certain endeavor and therefore a tougher sell prior to having the
       | solution.
        
       | egypturnash wrote:
       | The Great Disparity In Income surely has nothing to do with it.
       | If the boss is making absurd multipliers of your income and
       | barely paying you enough to get by, the last thing you wanna do
       | is get your work done as fast as possible. Pad those hours, give
       | yourself the raise the boss never will. Take stuff from work.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | rdiddly wrote:
         | Acknowledging receipt of the King Missile reference!
        
           | egypturnash wrote:
           | <3
        
       | blueblimp wrote:
       | > Technology calls our bluff. Improvements in technology show us
       | that technology wasn't the obstacle that we thought it was.
       | 
       | It would make sense that, as technology improves but humans
       | don't, the bottleneck would eventually become the humans.
       | 
       | To get around this would require improving the humans (via
       | genetic engineering, for example) or going human-less (via
       | artificial general intelligence, for example).
        
       | captainbland wrote:
       | Weird article, productivity has increased and is increasing. The
       | real question is whether the result of that productivity is
       | necessarily well harnessed, although that is subjective to a
       | degree. Questions still remain, however, over why so much work is
       | done and yet many of the individuals engaging in that work end up
       | in in-work poverty. That huge amounts of the labour force cannot
       | even afford their own housing.
       | 
       | But I digress, I suspect there is a lot of "hidden" productivity
       | that only emerges at the collective level, which is enabled
       | primarily by better communication and transportation, that is not
       | obvious at the individual level.
        
       | sologoub wrote:
       | > And while moving from Smith Corona 1950 to Word 95 is a big
       | improvement, moving from Word 95 to Word 365 isn't.
       | 
       | This is an interesting and very important point in overall
       | computing today as well - for the vast majority of use cases,
       | many of the todays top patterns are actually not just a small
       | improvement, but are worse. Keyboard shortcuts are usually (not
       | always) faster than mouse/trackpad driven visual pointers. Many
       | of the current UIs are resource hogs that slow things down by a
       | lot. UI patterns have also gotten somewhat less usable - in many
       | cases one cannot easily tell of a surface is clickable in iOS and
       | Android.
        
       | IkmoIkmo wrote:
       | I'm entirely clueless as to how to measure productivity at scale
       | in a standardised manner.
       | 
       | For example, washing machines create a lot of extra leisure,
       | because it makes humans productive. A washing-machine assisted
       | human can was 100x as much clothing in a given minute of
       | operation time. But I have no clue where such a productivity
       | improvement would show up in the data.
       | 
       | Of course I can study things like 'how many hours do you spend
       | maintaining your household', and you'd see that dropping decade
       | after decade, despite living in ever larger homes with more
       | functionality (and thus, a larger 'maintenance load'). That's
       | productivity, and stand-alone it can be analysed and concluded as
       | such.
       | 
       | But fitting that into the same productivity data as say, the
       | construction of homes per worker in an elegant way? I don't know
       | how you would do that.
       | 
       | Nor do I know how you account for completely different units
       | across time and sectors. For example, how do we measure
       | productivity of the pharmaceutical industry? Patents per person?
       | Medicines launched? Number of lives saved by vaccines?
       | 
       | A GDP per worked hour is of course a great start. But it leaves a
       | lot out, too. For example, technology that sequences a genome for
       | a penny in a short timespan may indirectly lead to gdp growth,
       | perhaps, but in and of itself that massive cheap boost to a
       | researchers' insight into a genome will not show up as a direct
       | boost to GDP, in fact the opposite.
       | 
       | Curious to understand from economists how such challenges are
       | typically handled and what the data says.
        
       | sudeepj wrote:
       | Productivity compared to which time in the past? If we compare
       | productivity today compared to say 1960/1950 then we have
       | definitely improved. We can manufacture at speed & scale. We can
       | communicate with people across the continents like never before.
       | We can work-from-home to a large extent than ever before. We can
       | destroy each other at much grander scale like never before.
       | 
       | But like any system, any improvement in efficiency results in
       | shifting the bottlenecks. It never truly goes away. The nature of
       | the bottleneck may be different but its there. The things like
       | "forms, compliance, process" are the new bottlenecks.
       | 
       | Technology is a means to an end. It cannot be the end itself (at
       | a macro level). Tech is by humans, for humans and of humans.
       | Humans will always be the centerpiece for time to come (unless AI
       | becomes so good as they potray in sci-fi films/tv-series).
        
       | coding123 wrote:
       | > This is what happened with the introduction of household
       | appliances. Instead of spending less time doing laundry, for
       | example, we do laundry more often.
       | 
       | I have thoroughly debunked this commonly referenced saying. I
       | don't have a washer and a dryer any more and I can't go into
       | laundromats because Tide delivers a chemical burn. (Even with 2
       | empty loads in a row.) No, I hand wash all my clothes and it
       | takes way longer than if I did my laundry 5 times a week in my
       | house if I had the machines.
        
         | imtringued wrote:
         | I don't understand this at all. Doesn't hand washing expose you
         | to more chemicals?
        
           | coding123 wrote:
           | It would except that I use exclusively apple cidar vinegar.
           | not the point.
        
             | AussieWog93 wrote:
             | Possibly dumb question, but is there a reason you couldn't
             | just pour vinegar into a top loader and wash in that?
             | 
             | Also, why apple cider over white vinegar?
        
         | reedlaw wrote:
         | I took it to mean people used to wear clothes longer between
         | washes, not just that we do more frequent, smaller loads. It
         | would be interesting to see a comparison showing how much
         | longer an average person should wear the same clothes in order
         | to make hand washing time commensurate with machine washing
         | time.
        
           | coding123 wrote:
           | Yeah I re-wear the same clothes a LOT and it still takes way
           | more time.
        
       | falsaberN1 wrote:
       | I find it hard to agree with the article. With the escalation of
       | technology the amount of things I get done every day, like,
       | tangible, countable things, has skyrocketed, even more as my
       | education with that technology went up. Not just programming and
       | admin stuff, that includes stuff like art (cheaper, takes less
       | time, gets nicer results) which some people argued would never
       | ever be a replacement for traditional art (I still do some
       | traditional things but I don't have shelves full of materials
       | anymore). Not to mention new avenues like 3D modeling, I don't
       | need a huge studio and large chunks of rock to create a 3D figure
       | anymore, and there are ways to make it a real sculpture if I
       | wanted. Music composing, I don't need several hundred dollars in
       | instruments anymore (nor a complex soundproof studio). I don't
       | need rooms full of machinery to make code or plan complex network
       | arrangements, etc. And for the things that still need to be done
       | the old way(c), there are better tools, information and whatnot.
       | 
       | Most of my computer tasks are automated via scripts and homebrewn
       | programs. Maybe I'm some sort of rare example of the third point
       | in the article ("The productivity is here, it's just only
       | harnessed by the indistractable few."), but I doubt I'm special
       | in any way. It's not like the past had no distractions, and I'd
       | argue distractions in the past were harder to dismiss (having to
       | personally travel to X place to do Y paperwork instead of
       | resolving that with a quick phone call or digital process).
       | 
       | Sure, the pandemic made a few disasters in terms of paperwork and
       | bureaucracy turning extremely slow, but I'd blame that more on
       | poor organization than a side effect of technology.
        
         | xondono wrote:
         | > Most of my computer tasks are automated via scripts and
         | homebrewn programs. Maybe I'm some sort of rare example of the
         | third point in the article ("The productivity is here, it's
         | just only harnessed by the indistractable few."), but I doubt
         | I'm special in any way. It's not like the past had no
         | distractions, and I'd argue distractions in the past were
         | harder to dismiss (having to personally travel to X place to do
         | Y paperwork instead of resolving that with a quick phone call
         | or digital process).
         | 
         | This makes you a rare example. I've been saying for years that
         | the real computer revolution will happen when people work
         | _with_ computers, rather than _on_ computers.
         | 
         | Most of the workforce does the same things they did on paper
         | but on a screen. For example, I've seen people fill out
         | spreadsheets _manually_ , with a calculator.
         | 
         | A lot of jobs have not seen the speedup of automation, while
         | compliance costs keep growing.
        
           | falsaberN1 wrote:
           | >This makes you a rare example. I've been saying for years
           | that the real computer revolution will happen when people
           | work with computers, rather than on computers.
           | 
           | Heh, it's funny you mention that, because I always had a
           | deeply rooted philosophical belief that computers are tools,
           | and a properly configured computing device is an "extension"
           | of oneself. Not in some crazy cyberpunk sense of extension,
           | but same as regular, old-school tools are customizable to
           | better suit the user's hand, size or strength, so we can
           | perform better with them, as if the tool was a part of our
           | body.
           | 
           | Sure, it does require a certain amount of know-how, but even
           | at the barest there's some degree of organizational feature
           | like moving launcher icons so you can reach for a tool
           | without jumping through hoops. Every "papercut" removed
           | helps.
           | 
           | For example, this week I had a bit of a need to get text from
           | some images. It's short enough bits of text that can be typed
           | by hand, but that's _annoying_ , so I set up a couple scripts
           | to get the text via OCR and copy it to clipboard, after
           | massaging the input a little bit using imageMagick, and now I
           | can quickly retrieve it with ridiculously small % of failure
           | (and it's usually very obvious), and works with Japanese and
           | everything. At least half a minute of back-and-forth was
           | turned into a keypress and a verification step (I usually
           | double-check what I type so that step was going to happen
           | anyway). It's a tiny thing and not even remotely my finest
           | work in the field, but everything adds up. Got lots of
           | homemade tools to do pretty much everything I do regularly,
           | and properly commented so it serves as a bit of a personal
           | repo of arcane tricks and best practices. I even recoded a
           | few tools in pure bash or awk/gawk so I can carry them around
           | as fallbacks, which allows me to use those things in obsolete
           | or busybox-tier systems.
           | 
           | At this point I might as well admit it's a bit of a hobby.
           | Having artistic skills also allows me to "brand" my system
           | with custom decorations and of course allow me to draw
           | comfortably by having most automation available from my left
           | hand.
           | 
           | Anyway, sorry for the long personal post, but the point is to
           | use my experience as example of the things the computer can
           | do for you if you are willing to put some time into making it
           | behave the way you want, the way it suits your own usages,
           | experiences and abilities and of course environment. Maybe
           | all you need to be happily productive are a few custom
           | document templates and rearranging some icons, or you do
           | complex coding tasks that can be automated to save you from
           | lots of busywork, or you are working with faulty hardware or
           | unstable internet connection that requires some babysitting
           | that can be automated with a few scripts. I'm not saying it's
           | something everyone should know, but it might be useful for
           | people to openly discuss their use cases and experiences,
           | someone might have a recommendation or trick available and
           | everyone wins. It's a lot like working in the kitchen if you
           | think about it.
        
             | xondono wrote:
             | I try to do the same, for me WSL has been a godsend,
             | because at work I'm forced to work on windows (a lot of
             | engineering tools are windows only, and some of them don't
             | work nicely even with fully virtualized environments).
             | 
             | Having the scripts I use on my linux machine close has made
             | my life easier.
             | 
             | To my surprise, even very technical and knowledgeable
             | people don't do this. For example, at work we log our time
             | of entry and exit (in Spain this is required by
             | government). I built a simple workflow that uses my phone
             | location and automatically fills the log for me. Coders in
             | my team, which I have shared the script with, are still
             | logging each day _by hand_.
             | 
             | I think it's more of a mindset than something that requires
             | any particular skill.
        
       | failuser wrote:
       | Does the author really expect for computers to make writing
       | novels by hand way more productive? This is such an edge case and
       | the productivity increase is there (spelling, navigation, version
       | control, there is dedicate software that helps you to make sure
       | your lore and timelines are consistent), but until GPT can make
       | consistent books no technology will help him with the core task:
       | engaging story. In most other areas of human endeavor technology
       | does increase productivity, no bluff there.
        
       | alexgmcm wrote:
       | I think people are doing more work than ever, but that doesn't
       | mean the work is useful.
       | 
       | Think about how much easier it is to build a SaaS or something
       | vs. even just ten years ago, but that doesn't mean that the new
       | stuff being built will bring economic value.
       | 
       | In fact we might expect there to be diminishing returns in terms
       | of what delivers real utility and thus improvements in
       | productivity don't translate to a similar increase in wealth
       | generation.
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | Everyone churning out Tiktok, Clubhouse, and Robinhood while we
         | need more SpaceX and Teslas. I'm unsure how to tilt the
         | equation so solving for hard (necessary) engineering is more
         | profitable (or lower risk) than window dressing.
        
           | alexgmcm wrote:
           | "The best minds of my generation are thinking about how to
           | make people click ads." - Jeff Hammerbacher
        
           | dcolkitt wrote:
           | TikTok, Clubhouse and Robinhood have touched the lives of
           | orders of magnitudes more people than Tesla or SpaceX.
           | 
           | Tesla sold half a million cars last year. TikTok provided
           | entertainment for a _billion_ people.
        
             | paulpauper wrote:
             | tesla does not exist in a vacuum though.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | I think there's a disconnect in what we deem to be value.
             | SpaceX has rapidly reduced the cost of lift to orbit (and
             | shortly, revolutionizing global comms via StarLink). Tesla
             | has forced an entire industry (light vehicles) to electrify
             | by demonstrating very little compromise vs combustion
             | vehicles while their stationary storage products are
             | forcing thermal generators off the electrical grid
             | (cannibalizing ancillary/frequency response revenue, the
             | last pieces of significant revenue thermal generators are
             | holding on to). TikTok, Clubhouse, and Robinhood are
             | various degrees of poison (both at the individual level,
             | and the societal level). They're our generation's Philip
             | Morris and Standard Oil (imho).
        
               | RandomLensman wrote:
               | In the past, the systems that thought they knew top down
               | what is "valuable" and what isn't in the economy and
               | society in a more granular level didn't work out so well.
               | 
               | Maybe the only reason we are spared extermination by some
               | alien enemy is because our videos are so great (I think
               | there is a short story from Philip K. Dick simikar to
               | that).
        
               | atonse wrote:
               | I have held this view for most of my life. But now I kind
               | of see them as complementary to each other.
               | 
               | At the end of a workday, a spacex or Tesla employee will
               | likely sit down and watch stupid tiktok videos or Netflix
               | or any number of things the rest of us do (or just
               | sleep).
               | 
               | The point is that we need both these things and they do
               | complement each other.
               | 
               | The way I think of it though, is more about scarcity of
               | talent.
               | 
               | The idea that a really smart human being (a finite
               | quantity) can either help build a better renewable energy
               | system or a better video compression pipeline, that feels
               | more obvious. One is using their talents to help
               | humanity. The other is using their talents to help a
               | company's bottom line but doesn't actually add to the
               | pleasure of the audience or the enjoyment of humanity
               | like the actual content does. And the cost of having a
               | slightly less efficient video processing pipeline or
               | subtitles software, is negligible compared to the cost of
               | taking another five years to build better toilets, ways
               | to recycle plastic, or use drones to plant trees.
               | 
               | So it's less about whether the companies are useful. It's
               | more about where we most need our best and brightest
               | talents used.
               | 
               | It's that gross misallocation of talent at places like
               | Facebook, Netflix, and Apple that bothers me.
        
               | epicureanideal wrote:
               | Right, but if we go too far on this, you end up with the
               | USSR's problem of having large investment in
               | infrastructure but no investment in consumer goods.
               | 
               | Although it might be true that we're over-investing in a
               | sort of ultra-sugary sort of consumer goods that are not
               | healthy for society in the long term.
        
             | mewpmewp2 wrote:
             | And was what TikTok did positive impact?
        
               | colinmhayes wrote:
               | You don't think bringing people joy is a positive impact?
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | Cocaine triggers a dopamine response (simplified, I dated
               | someone with an addiction). Is that a positive impact?
               | Moderation is important, as in reflection as to why
               | you're enjoying something and if it's healthy.
        
               | colinmhayes wrote:
               | If cocaine was free I think it'd have a tremendously
               | positive impact.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | Maybe with robust social safety nets and mental health
               | services available (Portugal model).
        
               | trhway wrote:
               | cocaine was cheap and easy available a century+ ago (for
               | example the original Coca-Cola was an over-the-counter
               | headache treating mix which contained alcohol and
               | cocaine). Didn't lead to much positive impact. (Note: i'm
               | for full unlimited legalization, though not because it is
               | that good, it is just that 1.the adults have the right to
               | practice Darwin theories and 2.the Prohibition is really
               | bad)
        
               | gilmore606 wrote:
               | Were those people not being brought joy before TikTok?
               | Did the amount of joy in the world increase? Does it
               | increase with every new frivolous app? If so eventually
               | we will be overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being
               | alive, but that does not seem to be the trend.
        
               | colinmhayes wrote:
               | Yes TikTok increases the joy its users experienced,
               | otherwise they would still be doing what they were doing
               | before.
               | 
               | I do think people are much happier than they were 20 or
               | even 10 years ago, largely thanks to the increased joy
               | brought by better apps. Can that continue until people
               | are "overwhelmed with the pure bliss of being alive"? No
               | clue, doesn't seem likely, but it's certainly possible.
        
             | MattGaiser wrote:
             | That is just counting interactions, not the impact of the
             | interactions.
        
             | ren_engineer wrote:
             | drug cartels "touch" the lives of millions of people and
             | make billions in revenue and I'd say they are a net
             | negative for society
             | 
             | most consumer apps are net negatives that sell digital
             | dopamine hits and studies have shown make people more
             | depressed the more they use them
        
       | jasfi wrote:
       | What you do is more important that how quickly you can do it,
       | unless you're very slow and doing the same thing most other
       | people are.
        
       | paulpauper wrote:
       | The whole falling productivity meme is more of a myth and or
       | overstated.
       | 
       | It doesn't mean anything. Look how well the stock market has done
       | over the past decade. No one losing sleep over a .1% reduction in
       | total factor productivity or whatever.
       | 
       | What matters more is if technology is advancing, are living
       | standards rising,is the economy growing. The answer seems to be
       | yes for all of those.
        
         | sbelskie wrote:
         | The economy is growing slower as are living standards(at least
         | in the US post 1973 or so) because productivity growth has been
         | slower. Both are obviously advancing, but more slowly.
        
       | sys_64738 wrote:
       | I am constantly distracted by others, by technology interruption
       | products, and by life as I WFH.
       | 
       | I have to attend too many zero value meetings which I generally
       | ignore.
       | 
       | I have to field questions constantly from people doing busy work
       | then others wonder why I am not more productive.
       | 
       | Technology might make process more efficient but the gains are
       | filled with more distractions which prevent progress to providing
       | real value to the widget I'm working on.
        
       | ajuc wrote:
       | Is this about productivity measured as economists usually define
       | it (so - value added divided by hours worked)?
       | 
       | It is a very misleadingly named indicator. If you're a barber
       | working in a small village in a poor country you cut hair for 8
       | people a day for 3 USD and pay 100 USD a month for renting a
       | place and other costs. So your productivity is 20*24 - 100 = 420
       | - 100 = 320 USD / 160 hours a month = 2 USD/hour.
       | 
       | If you go to a big city in developed country you now take 30 USD
       | per haircut and still do 8 of them a day and pay 1000 USD for
       | rent and other stuff. That results in a productivity of 20
       | USD/hour. You had become "10x barber" just like that :)
       | 
       | It has nothing to do with how well or fast you cut hair or how
       | "productive" or distracted you are. It's all about the price of
       | labor.
       | 
       | If that's the productivity we're talking about then the answer is
       | "Great Averaging". Every job that could be moved to low-income
       | countries to lower the costs - is. So the cost of labor goes
       | down. Meanwhile land prices and patents and brands remain in
       | high-income countries. So the relative cost of labor is lowered
       | (or at least its growth is artificially slowed down). For people
       | in low-income countries (like me) the "productivity" goes up, for
       | people in high-income countries it goes down. Great Averaging.
       | 
       | A good physical analogy would be 2 containers with water. 1 with
       | hot water and 1 with cold water. When you connect them the water
       | in both changes temperatures in opposite ways. And you can
       | extract work from the temperature difference (that's what the
       | millionaires who do the outsourcing do).
       | 
       | It also increases local inequalities (you get rich people in poor
       | countries and poor people in rich countries), but decreases the
       | inequality globally.
        
       | docflabby wrote:
       | Speculation and rent seeking are currently being rewarded more
       | than hard work in this phase of the economic cycle, combined with
       | high inflation which is eroding gdp in real terms.
        
       | bob33212 wrote:
       | In 2007 I ran an automated testing team for a product that had
       | 60M in revenue. It was just me by myself. Today you can find
       | startups with less than 5M in revenue with 5 people with the same
       | productivity. Organizations have expanded to fill the budget
       | provided of them mostly through headcount. Similar to Conway's
       | Law.
        
         | chelsea102 wrote:
         | This anecdote proves little. Even if taken as representative,
         | there are valid reasons for a differing level of investment,
         | like:
         | 
         | - importance of quality to the product domain
         | 
         | - differences in talent levels and supply of talent
         | 
         | - differences in company stage and expected future revenue
         | growth
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-07-31 23:00 UTC)