[HN Gopher] SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will launch NASA's Europa...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       SpaceX Falcon Heavy rocket will launch NASA's Europa Clipper to icy
       Jupiter moon
        
       Author : _Microft
       Score  : 127 points
       Date   : 2021-07-24 14:27 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.space.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.space.com)
        
       | matthewfelgate wrote:
       | Nice.
       | 
       | Would we not learn a lot more by landing on these moons?
        
         | natemcintosh wrote:
         | We might, and we are (just not Jupiter's moons)! The Dragonfly
         | mission (https://dragonfly.jhuapl.edu), will launch in 2027 and
         | arrive at Saturn's moon Titan in 2036.
         | 
         | Dragonfly is a nuclear powered octo-copter, that will fly
         | autonomously on the moon. Titan's small gravitational field and
         | dense atmosphere (about 1.45x Earth's atmospheric pressure)
         | make it one of the best places in the Solar System for flight.
         | The general flight plan is to charge up batteries with the
         | MMRTG (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multi-
         | mission_radioisotope_the...), take off, scout a new potential
         | landing area, land in a previously scouted landing area. On one
         | battery charge, it will be able to fly up to 10km, and stay
         | aloft for up to 30 minutes. Dragonfly will carry out scientific
         | sampling both on the ground and in the air.
         | 
         | To quote Wikipedia
         | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dragonfly_(spacecraft)) about
         | why Titan is an interesting spot for science:
         | 
         | > Titan is similar to the very early Earth, and can provide
         | clues to how life may have arisen on Earth. In 2005, the
         | European Space Agency's Huygens lander acquired some
         | atmospheric and surface measurements on Titan, detecting
         | tholins,[29] which are a mix of various types of hydrocarbons
         | (organic compounds) in the atmosphere and on the
         | surface.[30][31] Because Titan's atmosphere obscures the
         | surface at many wavelengths, the specific compositions of solid
         | hydrocarbon materials on Titan's surface remain essentially
         | unknown.[32] Measuring the compositions of materials in
         | different geologic settings will reveal how far prebiotic
         | chemistry has progressed in environments that provide known key
         | ingredients for life, such as pyrimidines (bases used to encode
         | information in DNA) and amino acids, the building blocks of
         | proteins.[33]
         | 
         | > Areas of particular interest are sites where extraterrestrial
         | liquid water in impact melt or potential cryovolcanic flows may
         | have interacted with the abundant organic compounds. Dragonfly
         | will provide the capability to explore diverse locations to
         | characterize the habitability of Titan's environment,
         | investigate how far prebiotic chemistry has progressed, and
         | search for biosignatures indicative of life based on water as
         | solvent and even hypothetical types of biochemistry.[6]
         | 
         | > The atmosphere contains plentiful nitrogen and methane, and
         | strong evidence indicates that liquid methane exists on the
         | surface. Evidence also indicates the presence of liquid water
         | and ammonia under the surface, which may be delivered to the
         | surface by cryovolcanic activity.
        
         | stickydink wrote:
         | If there's a chance there's any kind of life over there, don't
         | rush into touching it - something could potentially wipe the
         | whole place out.
        
           | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
           | IIRC all stuff we send into space going to other planets is
           | _sanitized_ here via gamma radiation so we don 't contaminate
           | other planets.
           | 
           | Who knows, maybe the life started on Earth as contamination
           | from foreign objects from space.
        
           | krisoft wrote:
           | Could it?
           | 
           | My understanding about planetary protection is that you don't
           | want to contaminate the new environment, because then you
           | can't say for certain (that easily) if the life you are
           | detecting is native to the environment or the contamination.
           | 
           | I also understand that the native population of the Americas
           | suffered badly from the diseases carried in by the europeans.
           | But those diseases landed in an environment much like the one
           | they evolved in. The humans were humans, the atmosphere were
           | the same, the temperature were the same, etc.
           | 
           | If the space-probe gets contaminated with some earthly
           | bacteria, virus or prion they not only have to survive the
           | travel there, but then they have to quickly adapt to the new
           | environment. Different temperature, different chemical
           | composition, different life forms. How often does it happen
           | that you sneeze at a fungi and the fungi gets infected with
           | your cold? Doing one of these adaptation alone is a big ask,
           | doing all of them at once would be a huge leap.
           | 
           | Imagine that you move to a new place. You move there in a
           | salted barrel, not designed for human occupancy. The locals
           | speak a different language, have different customs, you can't
           | get food you are used to and the climate is way out of your
           | comfort zone. Would you be outcompeting the locals quick? I
           | don't think so.
           | 
           | I wouldn't worry about wiping out a whole ecosystem unless
           | the ecosystem is much much more similar to our own's.
           | 
           | But of course being cautious is always a good idea.
           | Furthermore I already think we should avoid contamination. If
           | for no other reasons than to avoid arguments about what the
           | detected life really means.
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | AFAIK Jovian radiation is very strong and our current machines
         | have hard time surviving in proximity of the planet for any
         | significant time. Even Clipper will stay a healthy distance
         | away most of the time and only visit the inner Jovian system
         | shortly.
        
         | mabbo wrote:
         | Maybe, but slowing down enough to land is the problem.
         | 
         | To convert from a flyby to landing, you need to burn a lot of
         | fuel, to slow down. To get that fuel to the destination, you
         | need to bring it with you. Which means a much higher take off
         | mass, which needs an even bigger rocket.
         | 
         | Mars has a very light atmosphere, which lets us aerobrake- slow
         | down by hitting the atmosphere, that way you don't need any
         | extra fuel. Europa's atmosphere is basically non-existent.
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | In theory a spacecraft could partially aerobrake in Jupiter's
           | atmosphere to save fuel. Then use a rocket to enter Europa's
           | orbit.
        
             | enraged_camel wrote:
             | The problem is the intense radiation emitted by Jupiter, I
             | think.
        
         | Denvercoder9 wrote:
         | _> Would we not learn a lot more by landing on these moons?_
         | 
         | Probably, but it's also a lot harder. Not only does it require
         | more delta-V, you now need to design, build and test a lander
         | in addition to a spacecraft, and you need to build everything
         | to be able to operate in Jupiter's harsh radiation environment
         | (Europa Clipper will only do fly-bys of Europa and spend most
         | of its orbit further away from the high radiation environment).
        
           | nradov wrote:
           | There are so many science fiction stories about exploring and
           | colonizing Jovian moons. But somehow the authors always gloss
           | over the radiation issue. Unshielded humans would probably be
           | dead in a matter of days.
        
       | gordon_freeman wrote:
       | If anyone is interested there is a nice book[1] written on
       | SpaceX's early days when they were developing Falcon 1.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.amazon.com/Liftoff-Desperate-Early-Launched-
       | Spac...
        
         | bengale wrote:
         | This is a great read, I couldn't put it down.
        
       | mmcconnell1618 wrote:
       | I must be impatient due to everything moving at internet speeds.
       | The idea that this probe won't arrive until 2030, then it might
       | identify a landing spot for an actual lander that will need to be
       | budgeted, built, launched and travel to Europa for another decade
       | is a little disappointing.
       | 
       | I understand there are huge technical challenges, vast distances
       | but sometimes it feels like things are moving very slowly. On the
       | other hand I watch SpaceX cycle through revisions on a crazy fast
       | timeline and I have hope that we will have some breakthroughs in
       | spacefaring technology sooner than expected.
        
         | jostmey wrote:
         | I would be happy working on a grand project exploring a
         | distance moon, contributing to humanities future knowledge, and
         | building that future, even if it takes decades. I think it
         | would be a life well-spent
         | 
         | But if the probe blew up that would really suck
        
         | notjustanymike wrote:
         | Douglas Adams really sums it up:
         | 
         | "Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely, mind-
         | bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long way
         | down the road to the chemist's, but that's just peanuts to
         | space."
        
           | gameshot911 wrote:
           | That quote has more to do with the physical size of space,
           | whereas OP is primarily referring to the speed of space
           | program development.
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | The issues the poster cites, like "this probe won't arrive
             | until 2030", are in part due to the physical size of space.
        
               | bpodgursky wrote:
               | Ehh... it's due to the technical challenge of getting
               | enough fuel into space to get to Jupiter quickly without
               | a bunch of gravity assists.
               | 
               | Never going to be a weekend hop, but there are definitely
               | technical advances that make it a 3 month trip rather
               | than a 3 year trip.
        
               | EvilEy3 wrote:
               | Such as?
        
             | Cederfjard wrote:
             | The former is relevant to the point when the trip itself
             | will take half a decade.
        
       | maverick-iceman wrote:
       | People who mention savings are incorrect. They should talk about
       | reduced loss.
       | 
       | This mission is a total financial loss until proved otherwise.
       | 
       | As of today the only people who managed to make money in space
       | are the brokers and lawyers who negotiated private tourism trips
       | to the ISS in the 90s and again this new wave of space tourism.
       | 
       | There's an irrational exhuberance about space in my opinion
        
         | tastyfreeze wrote:
         | Humans are drawn to the unknown. This desire is how we have
         | dominated a planet. Regardless of the risk there will always be
         | someone willing to go for the sole purpose of being first.
         | Embrace the irrational exhuberance. It is how we got to where
         | we are now. It is how we advance into the future. Even if we
         | fail to become a spacefaring species we will learn many new
         | things in the endeavour.
        
         | crecker wrote:
         | LMAO. You're using internet technology to post this message and
         | you consider a space mission as "waste". A space mission pones
         | a lot of problems, from communication to logistic management. A
         | few of the problems they had in the past with the first space
         | missions were resolved, and technologies were ported to Earth
         | and everyday life.
        
           | maverick-iceman wrote:
           | What is there for us on Jupiter? Nothing.
           | 
           | The progress which matters always happens in some guy's
           | brain. Imaginary journeys, not real ones.
           | 
           | Einstein didn't need to travel around massive objects to come
           | up with relativity.
           | 
           | The cost of that theory was basically the rent, food and
           | water for him.
        
         | merpnderp wrote:
         | Me buying a taco is a 100% loss. Tires for my car? 100% loss.
         | Maybe the toothpaste has residual gains if forgone dentistry
         | expenditures. But my Netflix bill is definitely a 100% loss.
         | 
         | Sending another mission to Jupiter though will likely result in
         | serious returns on investments, even if they are non-obvious at
         | this point.
        
         | Rebelgecko wrote:
         | What do you consider a loss? It's not like they're setting
         | money on fire.
        
           | maverick-iceman wrote:
           | Usable knowledge to improve quality of life.
           | 
           | And no, hope and hype about Europa being able to sustain life
           | is not quality of life. It's a sugar high you get when you
           | read the news or see the anchor losing it on tv.
        
             | Xplune13 wrote:
             | and why should everything be about quality of life? It is
             | an important point, but not the only one.
             | 
             | Edit: Also, I think the problem is not of we having 'less'
             | quality of life (although it can still be improved), it is
             | more of how can we distribute that better quality of life
             | to everyone.
        
               | maverick-iceman wrote:
               | > and why should everything be about quality of life? It
               | is an important point, but not the only one.
               | 
               | Because quality of life gets everybody on board. This
               | sort of expeditions are paid for with the money of people
               | who don't agree with the spending.
               | 
               | These people are generally talked some sense into when
               | they disagree with military spending, or infrastructure
               | spending or entitlements spending. The theme is always
               | "even if you don't benefit from it yourself, people
               | around you do and so over time will you!"
               | 
               | A leftist version of trickle down, I call it trickle up
               | or trickle laterally. I can see the point in having a
               | discussion.
               | 
               | The talk doesn't even happen with space, it seems like if
               | you are for containing space spending you hate America or
               | something
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | We have evidence of scientific and engineering
               | advancements spreading from space programs out to the
               | world. We also have evidence of trickle down economics
               | not working. What more do you want?
               | 
               | (The biggest difference to explain that, I would say, is
               | that a scientific/engineering advancement can deliver
               | value magnitudes greater than development cost, but
               | trickle down at best transfers some of the money. And
               | that's what most of the budget is going into on a project
               | like this, not basic equipment assembly or the
               | proportionally tiny fuel cost.)
        
               | maverick-iceman wrote:
               | > The biggest difference to explain that, I would say, is
               | that a scientific/engineering advancement can deliver
               | value magnitudes greater than development cost
               | 
               | Nothing fungible will come out of this Jupiter mission
               | and you know it.
               | 
               | If this was education budget or brain research I'd
               | totally be onboard with it.
        
               | Dylan16807 wrote:
               | Ew, don't tell me what I 'know'.
        
         | Denvercoder9 wrote:
         | Not everything in life is nor should be about financial gain.
        
       | LightG wrote:
       | There's a perfectly good Saturn V rocket sitting right now at the
       | Rocket Park, NASA Johnson Space Center.
       | 
       | Why didn't they just use that?
       | 
       | What a waste of money.
       | 
       | https://spacecenter.org/exhibits-and-experiences/nasa-tram-t...
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_aAxALzVJYo
        
       | bryanlarsen wrote:
       | Saving NASA $3B by doing so. It would have cost $2B to use the
       | SLS rocket that Congress wanted them to use, and it would have
       | cost another billion to rebuild Clipper to withstand the intense
       | vibrations from SLS's solid rocket boosters.
        
         | fnord77 wrote:
         | dumb question - why are we using Saturn V derived rockets?
         | afaik none of these new rockets can match its max payload
        
           | mlindner wrote:
           | I assume you typoed and meant to ask "why aren't" instead.
           | 
           | We aren't because the Saturn V moon rocket (and related
           | projects) were consuming over 4% of the US government's
           | budget, way more than even the SLS and definitely more than
           | the Falcon Heavy.
        
           | meepmorp wrote:
           | Starship exceeds Saturn V's lift capacity.
        
             | lmilcin wrote:
             | Not true.
             | 
             | Saturn V's lift to LEO was 120-140 tonnes
             | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturn_V) while SpaceX
             | claims Starship's is "over" 100 tonnes
             | (https://www.spacex.com/media/starship_users_guide_v1.pdf).
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | It exceeds Saturn V on the _second_ launch that day. ;-)
        
               | zzt123 wrote:
               | Don't final inspections with payload attached by itself
               | take more than a day? Or is that going to be a relic of
               | the past?
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | I doubt anyone knows for sure at this point, but I'd
               | imagine the goal is something more akin to loading cargo
               | into the belly of an airliner; consistently sized modules
               | with standardized attachments for power etc.
        
               | lmilcin wrote:
               | Well, if you have a 140t payload it doesn't matter how
               | many 100t payloads you can lift per day, it just isn't
               | going to lift it.
               | 
               | On the other hand, obviously, payloads are planned for
               | the rocket they are going to be lifted by, so most likely
               | somebody will set constraints on their project to either
               | have smaller payload or split it into parts.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Right; I think Starship, if it pans out, is going to
               | entirely change how we plan, build, and carry out space
               | missions, both manned and unmanned.
        
               | avmich wrote:
               | Starship brings any 100 tonnes to orbit, while of Saturn
               | V's 120+ tons a half constitutes the 3rd stage with
               | unspent fuel. So it's less of payload per ce for Saturn V
               | compared to Starship.
               | 
               | On the other hand, Starship didn't fly to orbit yet.
               | We'll see better how it goes when it does. And we can't
               | fly Saturn V now anyway. And Starship - even if
               | supposedly with lower payload - promises to be much
               | cheaper. And...
        
               | bryanlarsen wrote:
               | In Skylab mode it was pure payload.
        
               | avmich wrote:
               | Which weighted less than 80 tons - much less than what
               | other superheavy rockets are bringing to LEO - Energiya,
               | SLS, BFR...
        
               | midasuni wrote:
               | That's looking at a single launch and neglecting the
               | refuel ability.
        
             | scrumbledober wrote:
             | And will be able to refuel in orbit
        
           | skykooler wrote:
           | We don't have the infrastructure to build them anymore, and a
           | lot of the design wasn't captured in the blueprints because
           | things were tweaked by hand to make them work. We could build
           | something with Saturn V-like performance, but it would be a
           | new rocket, not just resuming production of the older line.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | That was seriously considered. It was rejected because
           | schematics consist only a small portion of the knowledge
           | necessary to build a rocket, most of the rest had been lost
           | to time.
           | 
           | A massive amount of redesign was required to build the
           | shuttle derived SLS, deriving from Saturn would have been
           | worse.
           | 
           | But the real reason was that deriving from Shuttle kept those
           | employees employed. SLS has never been a rocket program, it's
           | always been a pork program.
           | 
           | SpaceX's Starship has twice the thrust of Saturn, so could be
           | tweaked to send more payload by sacrificing reusability. But
           | they have an even better plan -- refueling allows massive
           | payloads.
        
             | lmilcin wrote:
             | In particular, all Saturn V engines were completely hand-
             | built and the process was not documented. A lot of very
             | fine craftsmanship went into that that we can't replicate
             | today.
        
               | renewiltord wrote:
               | Seems like that situation where the first engineer builds
               | an inscrutably clever codebase. Lots of fine
               | craftsmanship indeed.
        
               | akiselev wrote:
               | Nitpick: we can replicate it, it's not like we've
               | technologically regressed. We're just not willing to
               | spend the money - at it's peak NASA's budget was ~4.5% of
               | federal spending when the Saturn V was designed (it's now
               | only 0.5%).
        
               | foobiekr wrote:
               | Actually, you'd be surprised how many techniques have
               | been lost. They're just not relevant, for example the
               | actual practice of riveting battleship hulls is gone, but
               | that changes suddenly when you want to replicate the
               | past.
        
               | KineticLensman wrote:
               | > Nitpick: we can replicate it, it's not like we've
               | technologically regressed.
               | 
               | Saturn's materials and computer technology are more than
               | 50 years old. Not only would we have to want to recreate
               | this historic technology, we would have to recreate the
               | knowledge, skills and competencies of the experienced
               | craftsmen that used it, across the massive supply chain,
               | as well as the tooling required.
        
               | influx wrote:
               | Do you have a source on that? There was an industry I was
               | adjacent to, losing all their skilled metal workers to
               | retirement, and there was no next generation who were
               | skilled enough to do the machining. They were literally
               | filming them working in the hope they could at least
               | train someone down the road.
        
               | lmilcin wrote:
               | No, we can't replicate it because there is simply not
               | enough description. For example, there aren't even specs
               | for parts.
               | 
               | The entire thing would have to be re-designed from
               | scratch with modern manufacturing process in mind.
               | 
               | And for things like F1 engine the available manufacturing
               | methods have a lot of influence on the design, so the
               | result will be basically a different engine than F1.
        
               | treeman79 wrote:
               | My dad was in the airline industry. Engineers kept lots
               | of secret techniques to prevent them from being replaced.
               | 
               | One had to due with adding strings to some foam mixture
               | to get it to set correctly. Not documented anywhere. When
               | cheap labor was brought in they couldn't reproduce the
               | work. So old people had to be hired back at a lot more
        
               | garmaine wrote:
               | That's because federal spending has increased across the
               | board. NASA's funding isn't that much different now than
               | then.
        
               | adventured wrote:
               | NASA's spending was near $5 billion in the mid 1960s. [1]
               | 
               | That's equal to $42 billion today per the BLS. NASA's
               | fiscal 2021 budget is $23.2 billion. So while you're
               | correct that Federal spending has increased as a share of
               | the economy (declining NASA's share of spending even
               | faster), NASA's funding is realistically down by at least
               | half now vs then when you adjust for inflation.
               | 
               | That BLS figure is also the questionable official
               | conservative take. Gold was $35 / ounce back then, it's
               | around $1,800 now (51 fold increase). The average new car
               | was near $3,000 in the mid 1960s, it's now $41,000. Oil
               | was $3 / barrel in the mid 1960s, it's in the $70s now.
               | 
               | [1] https://history.nasa.gov/SP-4012/vol4/ch1.htm
               | 
               | - NASA's spending fell to $3 billion by 1974. Inflation
               | adjusted that would be $17.5 billion today, so at least
               | they're ahead of that.
        
               | garmaine wrote:
               | So adjusted for inflation, NASA's budget is merely half
               | what it was in the peak of the 1960's, whereas the
               | statistic quoted makes it sound like it is 1/10th.
               | 
               | Cherry-picking a peak date is a bit dubious though. If
               | you average over the duration of the Apollo program, you
               | get a number much closer to today.
               | 
               | So most, maybe even all of the difference in budgetary
               | size is due to increase in size of the rest of the
               | federal budget.
        
               | bumby wrote:
               | To be fair, the GP comment said "at its peak". They
               | weren't cherry picking, just following the initial
               | thread. But your point about relative % of GDP may not be
               | the best measure
        
               | Someone wrote:
               | We can't make them the way they used to make them, but
               | likely could do at least as good fairly easily _if_
               | sufficient funds were made available.
               | 
               | I'm basing that on
               | https://arstechnica.com/science/2013/04/how-nasa-brought-
               | the..., which tells me we now know quite well how these
               | engines (or rather: the particular one they looked at)
               | were constructed. I also get the impression we could
               | create those parts using other means such as 3D printing.
        
               | lmilcin wrote:
               | Nobody says we can't build an engine _like_ F1. We just
               | can 't build _F1_ , because we don't know how the
               | original ones were built.
               | 
               | Machines like that are designed with the manufacturing
               | process in mind.
               | 
               | An engine designed to be manufactured with today's
               | manufacturing processes will look different than an
               | engine designed to be manufactured manually by ultra-
               | skilled metalworkers and welders.
        
             | read_if_gay_ wrote:
             | I would like to read more about this. Is there a source or
             | anything?
        
               | lmilcin wrote:
               | Sure. Not a source but still interesting.
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovD0aLdRUs0 (Why Can't we
               | Remake the Rocketdyne F1 Engine?)
               | 
               | TLDR: everything was handcrafted, notes were not made or
               | lost, people have retired or passed away and today's
               | engineers don't know the tricks that the original
               | engineers used. Effectively, existing blueprints are not
               | enough to rebuild the engine.
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | It's sort of like how a new cook can follow a recipe from
               | an expert chef but the final result won't taste as good.
               | There's a lot of tacit knowledge assumed which can't
               | necessarily be communicated in written form.
        
           | Tempest1981 wrote:
           | Looking at the "LEO Payload" column here:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Super_heavy-
           | lift_launch_vehicl...                 Saturn V: 310,000 lb
           | SLS: 209,000 lb planned       Falcon Heavy: 126,000-141,000
           | lb        Starship: 220,000-330,000 lb planned
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | Of course, the benefit of Starship is that it can (in
             | theory) do that several times a day.
        
               | fnord77 wrote:
               | wasn't that the promise with the space shuttle, too?
        
               | eloff wrote:
               | Maybe at one point, but the final design did not allow
               | rapid turnaround. Starship could actually do it the way
               | is being designed. They have a good shot at pulling it
               | off.
        
         | gpt5 wrote:
         | Realistically, what stage of testing/maturity starship need to
         | pass so that SLS is officially cancelled?
        
           | Denvercoder9 wrote:
           | It's irrelevant. For Congress, SLS is primarily a jobs
           | program. They want it to continue as long as they can make up
           | any reason to do that, regardless of the practical use.
        
             | akiselev wrote:
             | The jobs program is the practical use - national security
             | requires maintaining an industrial base, or at least that's
             | the theory (don't know how valid it is).
        
               | foobiekr wrote:
               | If only there was such a project for advanced fabrication
               | for chips maybe we wouldn't find ourselves in the current
               | situation.
        
               | cma wrote:
               | We do, EUV LLC. was subsidized by the US govt (via DARPA)
               | and a US industry consortium in the 90s. Lots of the tech
               | went to European allies in I think a sale/collaboration
               | at some point but we maintained power due to that initial
               | seed and have used it for things like trade restrictions
               | on the technology.
               | 
               | (1998) https://www.semiconductoronline.com/doc/euv-llc-
               | enters-devel...
        
           | khuey wrote:
           | Senator Richard Shelby's retirement, for one.
        
           | themgt wrote:
           | If Starship works, it's going to be almost a state-change
           | moment in the space industry. They aren't just building a
           | single test vehicle for a demo mission, they're building
           | factories churning out engines, rockets, GSE, building launch
           | pads, etc. They might take a few tries to nail a first
           | orbital launch, once that happens (and assuming no undue
           | regulatory hurdles) their launch cadence may start picking up
           | dramatically within 3-6 months of a success.
           | 
           | If eighteen months from now Starship has launched a ~dozen or
           | more times and SLS once, I'd imagine they might wrap up SLS
           | with Artemis 2, which should be mostly complete by then. At a
           | total program cost of ~$24 billion for 2 flights it would be
           | quite ... something, but it's hard to see them continuing
           | much beyond that. They'd just figure out a way to use Crew
           | Dragon/Starliner to get to Starship for lunar missions
           | (assuming they're not going to want to launch/land humans on
           | Earth on Starship for a while).
        
             | paulsutter wrote:
             | When. When Starship works
        
               | flafla2 wrote:
               | I share your optimism but I think it it is unrealistic to
               | unquestionably assume that SpaceX will continue to
               | succeed. The very nature of the problems that they are
               | trying to solve is such that failure is always a
               | possibility.
               | 
               | I don't say this as a slight to SpaceX... on the contrary
               | the risk is what makes them so exciting!
        
       | martythemaniak wrote:
       | Not explicitly mentioned: this saves NASA almost $2 billion, or
       | half the cost of the actual spacecraft. The previous SLS-mandated
       | launch was estimated to cost about $2B per launch with no
       | guarantee that there'd be an actual rocket available. Though, the
       | savings mean it'll take longer to get there, 3.5 years vs 5
       | years.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | enraged_camel wrote:
         | >> Though, the savings mean it'll take longer to get there, 3.5
         | years vs 5 years.
         | 
         | I thought this was no longer the case, as NASA had determined
         | that Falcon Heavy was not going to have to travel to Venus to
         | get a gravity boost from it first, and could go directly to
         | Europa like SLS.
        
         | inglor_cz wrote:
         | SLS is an enormous boondoggle.
         | 
         | People love to hate Musk, but without SpaceX and private space
         | companies in general, we could forget about any significant
         | progress in space activities. The price tag would be
         | suffocating.
         | 
         | It is also an interesting example of "throwing money at a
         | problem does not always buy you a better solution". People too
         | often come to conclusion that if some system is defective (e.g.
         | schooling), more money would automatically help. Not
         | necessarily.
        
           | gpt5 wrote:
           | We would have seen space progress. It wouldn't have come for
           | the US though.
        
           | adrr wrote:
           | Because congress forced them to use Space shuttle components
           | and NASA can't go to the open market and find other
           | components. Space shuttle suppliers are fleecing NASA.
           | 
           | Here's an example: The SLS/Space Shuttle RS-25 engines are
           | $125mm a piece when they could buy RD-180 engines for $25m a
           | piece. There are 4 engines on SLS and they are expendable.
        
             | bpodgursky wrote:
             | It's certainly an element, but NASA's culture today would
             | simply never tolerate the rapid explosion cycles necessary
             | to build a reusable rocket. SLS would be 50% cheaper maybe,
             | but they would never have built the F9, much less a
             | Starship.
        
             | inglor_cz wrote:
             | Congress is positioned between "we actually need some
             | functional space industry whose total expenditure cannot
             | rise to high heavens" and "it would be so nice if some
             | government-funded jobs were created in my constituency, so
             | let us make the supply chains as complicated as possible".
             | 
             | I am still positively surprised that they opened up some of
             | the processes to competition.
        
       | HenryKissinger wrote:
       | Maybe Elon Musk's makeshift submarine will find a new purpose.
        
       | _Microft wrote:
       | Maybe Starship has matured enough by then to launch Europa
       | Clipper on it? It might be able to put the probe on a much faster
       | trajectory than Falcon Heavy could. Does anyone know of
       | (informal?) plans regarding that?
       | 
       | Keep in mind that Artemis 3 [0] is scheduled to launch in
       | september 2024 and the mission includes a moon landing with the
       | planned Starship human landing system (HLS) [1]. Mr Maezawa's
       | flight around Moon is also scheduled for the early 2020ies (no
       | earlier than ("NET") 2023), so Starship is meant to be reliable
       | enough for crewed missions then.
       | 
       | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_3#Mission
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SpaceX_Starship#Starship_Human...
        
         | mlindner wrote:
         | Starship isn't a functional vehicle yet. It's a long way from
         | being able to be a launch vehicle for NASA's most expensive
         | payloads.
        
         | rst wrote:
         | NASA tends to be extremely conservative regarding booster
         | technology -- allowing reused boosters only after commercial
         | customers had thoroughly proved them out, for example. Which is
         | justifiable -- most commercial launches are communications
         | satellites for which it's possible to insure the launch for
         | enough to buy another, while NASA's payloads are unique and far
         | more expensive.
        
         | mabbo wrote:
         | It would be odd to change the contact that late, I would
         | imagine. But it's an interesting possibility.
         | 
         | Still, Starship has a long way to go.
        
       | Causality1 wrote:
       | The first step toward launching a melt probe and having a look at
       | that ocean. I can't wait.
        
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