[HN Gopher] SpaceX will soon fire up its Super Heavy booster for...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       SpaceX will soon fire up its Super Heavy booster for the first time
        
       Author : rbanffy
       Score  : 189 points
       Date   : 2021-07-15 14:42 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arstechnica.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arstechnica.com)
        
       | chasd00 wrote:
       | one thing to remember is it will be a static fire of three
       | engines not the full thirty'ish. Now a static fire of 30 Raptor
       | engines will be a sight, and sound, to behold!
        
       | deregulateMed wrote:
       | Happy to take credit for this. I might have a thankless job, but
       | my taxes paid for this.
       | 
       | It was no big deal really. Anyone could have been born here and
       | done the same.
       | 
       | Edit- why is it against the rules to spit facts?
        
         | sebzim4500 wrote:
         | A very small portion of funding for the Starship program has
         | come from NASA (They won ~ 3 billion for HLS but that is spread
         | over a few years).
         | 
         | SpaceX would almost certainly have gone bankrupt early on if it
         | wasn't for NASA though, so SpaceX does owe it's existence to
         | the US taxpayer in that sense.
        
           | LightG wrote:
           | NASA is a large customer of Spacex. Those profits earned via
           | NASA, which go towards Starship development, are paid by
           | taxpayers.
           | 
           | It is de facto tax payer funding as there isn't another
           | customer like NASA for Spacex to go to (realistically).
        
             | trothamel wrote:
             | The're a large customer, but probably not the largest.
             | SpaceX has a lot of commercial customers, including a fully
             | private manned spaceflight (Inspiration4) later this year.
             | 
             | When it comes to Starship, it seems like one of the main
             | applications will be to launch hundreds of Starlink
             | satellites at once. I don't believe that there is a
             | noticable amount of NASA funding in Starlink - it's
             | possible they might be using it for some reason, but it'd
             | be as a customer.
        
               | _Microft wrote:
               | NASA is the largest single customer of SpaceX but does
               | not make up the lion's share of SpaceX launches.
        
               | sebzim4500 wrote:
               | Maybe they consider Starlink to be a customer of SpaceX?
               | NASA would still be the largest customer though, with 36
               | launches versus Starlink's 33. That would probably change
               | by the end of the year though.
        
               | trothamel wrote:
               | That is sort of of what I was thinking. It's not exactly
               | right, but out of 20 launches in the first half of 2021,
               | you have 13 Starlinks, 2 Transporter (SpaceX-brokered
               | rideshare), 2 NASA (Crew/Commercial Resupply), 2
               | Commercial, and 1 Space Corps.
               | 
               | The second half of the year looks more NASA-Heavy, with
               | CRS-23, Crew 3, and CRS-24, plus 2 science satellite. But
               | that's among 17 other missions.
               | 
               | I guess my point is that SpaceX probably won't lose NASA,
               | but they're not as dependent on government business as
               | ULA is.
        
               | lizknope wrote:
               | Wikipedia has a list of Falcon launches and a column with
               | the customer name. NASA is on there quite a bit but there
               | are plenty of other customers including other US
               | government agencies, other governments, and private
               | companies.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Falcon_9_and_Falcon
               | _He...
        
             | iso1631 wrote:
             | If you think government subsidies spacex, you should see
             | military contractors.
        
             | kiba wrote:
             | So are ULA, Lockheed, Boeing and other dinosaur OldSpace
             | giants.
             | 
             | Rather than pork going to aerospace contractors working on
             | an already obsolete or soon to be obsolete SLS, I rather
             | that that states get money to work on whatever made
             | possible by the Starship program.
        
             | SECProto wrote:
             | SpaceX does a couple NASA launches a year, for which they
             | make 100-200 million each and have to actually provide a
             | service that costs them a decent fraction of that cost.
             | 
             | They earlier this year had an investment round worth about
             | a billion, which was all dedicated to R&D for Starship and
             | Starlink. Total external investments are around $19 billion
             | [1]
             | 
             | So yeah, some of the NASA dollars probably provide profit
             | to the company that they reinvest in R&D. But a larger
             | portion comes from external investment specifically for
             | R&D.
             | 
             | [1] https://craft.co/spacex/funding-rounds
        
               | LightG wrote:
               | Fair points.
               | 
               | But where do you think that $19billion came from?
               | 
               | Looking forward to the downvote :-)
        
               | JumpCrisscross wrote:
               | > _where do you think that $19billion came from?_
               | 
               | Most dollars that have been paid to a SpaceX bank
               | account, by investors or customers, came from private
               | parties. NASA was indisputably critical in enabling
               | SpaceX. But SpaceX was not taxpayer funded if that word
               | doesn't encompass virtually all economic activity in
               | America.
               | 
               | Today, SpaceX could do fine without any NASA contracts.
               | Naturally, they help. But there is a _lot_ of demand for
               | launch, in part due to the price competition SpaceX
               | started.
        
               | SECProto wrote:
               | The 5.9 billion (19 was a typo) was investment capital.
               | Per the source, investors were:
               | 
               | Founders Fund, 137 Ventures, Scott Banister, DFJ Growth,
               | Google, Rizvi Traverse Management, Fidelity Investments,
               | Threshold, Rothenberg Ventures, Elon Musk, ACE & Company,
               | Bill Lee, David Sacks, Valor Equity Partners, Sherpa
               | Capital, Ecosystem Ventures, Baillie Gifford, Barney
               | Pell, Vanedge Capital, Matthew Pritzker Company,
               | Capricorn Venture Partners, Musket Research Associates,
               | Tao Capital Partners, DBL Partners, Michael Cheung, Otter
               | Rock Capital, NASA, Syren Capital Advisors, FoundersX
               | Ventures, The K Fund, 7percent Ventures, Space Angels,
               | Troy Capital Partners, M13, Seed-Resolute, Equidate,
               | Microventures, Alphabet, G Squared, Peter Diamandis,
               | Oakhouse Partners, Craft Ventures, Hemisphere Ventures,
               | All Blue Capital, Bracket Capital, TH Capital, #adm
               | VENTURES, ACE Capital, Threshold Ventures, Manhattan
               | Venture Partners, Gigafund, Decacorn Capital,
               | StraightPath Venture Partners, Zillow Group, Aeon Family
               | of Funds, Team in Residence, ADIT Ventures, GC1 Ventures,
               | Ernest H. Pomerantz, Lord Rothschild, Ontario Teachers'
               | Pension Plan
               | 
               | Most of these are non-taxpayer sources. NASA was small as
               | far as I know, I don't recall seeing them listed in any
               | of the recent (much larger) rounds. Unless you count the
               | Ontario provincial government paying their teachers
               | including their pensions, and the thus-funded pension
               | fund investing in SpaceX.
        
               | simonh wrote:
               | That linked page says $5.9bn in external funding. That
               | may not include initial seed capital, but I don't think
               | that was as much as a billion.
        
               | SECProto wrote:
               | Thank you for the correction. I read 5.9 in the article
               | and somehow typo'd with 19 in my comment.
        
               | Cipater wrote:
               | You mean $1.9 billion, right?
        
           | soperj wrote:
           | I bet they do this whenever they jump into someone's american
           | made car, or go into a bank in the country as well.
        
           | Robotbeat wrote:
           | SpaceX is a massive vindication of NASA's approach the last 2
           | decades to do public-private partnerships and commercial-
           | oriented contracting (i.e. where contractors are allowed more
           | latitude in _how_ they accomplish a mission, are actively
           | encouraged to find other customers, and bid on a fixed-price
           | basis instead of cost-plus).
           | 
           | SpaceX is a huge vindication of careful government spending
           | being used to help stimulate commercial activity while also
           | accomplishing government goals more efficiently.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | matthewdgreen wrote:
             | If you exclude SpaceX as an outlier, how well does this
             | approach work? (Actual question, I'm curious.)
        
               | trothamel wrote:
               | While it's still early days, it's reasonably to say it's
               | seemingly working okay.
               | 
               | The first Starliner mission was, basically, a failure -
               | but it's a failure that Boeing, rather than NASA, is
               | having to pay for, including the reflight of the Orbital
               | Flight Test.
               | 
               | Despite setbacks, the Commercial Cargo program seems to
               | be going well. One note is that Orbital (now Northrup
               | Grumman) had to purchase flights from a competitor to
               | fulfill their contracts, which they did.
               | 
               | The Lunar Gateway appears to be moving/have moved to this
               | model, and so far so good.
               | 
               | I'd say one of the big things to do is to compare this
               | against what NASA has been able to accomplish with
               | traditional contracts, recently. Since 2005, the Ares
               | program launched one model rocket in 2009. (The first
               | stage of Ares 1X wasn't the one intended for Ares I, and
               | the second stage was boilerplate.) SLS will likely have
               | it's first flight later this year or early next year, and
               | then a second flight in 2023, and will probably have cost
               | ~$25B by then.
               | 
               | I think it's probably fair to say the commercial programs
               | have accomplished more, especially for the money.
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | The only issue is where the risk pools, and the drive
               | towards competitors merging to obtain scale capable of
               | surviving failure.
               | 
               | Or in other words, the US effectively produced the modern
               | primes by pushing more risk onto them. No company wants
               | to go out of business.
               | 
               | And if that would be the result of a single project
               | failure when your primary customer is asking you to do
               | something that's never been done before?
               | 
               | SpaceX having success is great. But had they failed, it
               | would have bankrupted the company. And then we'd be back
               | to Orbital, Boeing, et al.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Bankrupted companies is not necessarily bad for society
               | overall. Besides SpaceX, there was also Kistler in the
               | running for COTS commercial cargo. They failed and were
               | replaced by Orbital.
               | 
               | Also, you seem to be implying that cost plus contracts
               | will allow much smaller companies since they won't have
               | to absorb as much risk, but in reality, it's the big boys
               | who win cost plus contracts. SpaceX was tiny when they
               | won COTS/CRS (Elon wasn't a billionaire and Tesla was
               | looking more like a dead end novelty than the most
               | valuable car company in the world).
               | 
               | Also, Iridium and Orbcomm and OneWeb all went bankrupt
               | but all are still operating today. Bankruptcy doesn't
               | always mean the business disappears off the face of the
               | planet, and even when it does, often their assets end up
               | being used productively by others (that's how SpaceX got
               | their McGregor test site).
        
               | thinkcontext wrote:
               | > Despite setbacks, the Commercial Cargo program seems to
               | be going well. One note is that Orbital (now Northrup
               | Grumman) had to purchase flights from a competitor to
               | fulfill their contracts, which they did.
               | 
               | Also on Commercial Cargo, for phase 2 the competition
               | forced Orbital to have to significantly cut their price.
               | On the flip side, SpaceX raised theirs since they so
               | underbid in the first round.
               | 
               | Additionally, Dream Chaser is supposed to come online
               | soon.
        
               | HWR_14 wrote:
               | As far as I can tell, this approach works very well.
               | Better than the standard procurement process and better
               | than the processes many private companies use.
        
               | bpodgursky wrote:
               | I don't think it's reasonable to exclude outliers when
               | you are de-facto angel investing. The expectation is that
               | most companies, especially those pushing technological
               | limits, fail. One or two wild successes is the "expected"
               | outcome in a power-law, winner-take-most distribution,
               | and SpaceX is one of them.
        
           | kiba wrote:
           | That's future funding for the Starship program, no? It's also
           | being contested by the losers, but I doubt that SpaceX will
           | lose the contract.
        
       | mabbo wrote:
       | This will be a monumental accomplishment, when it launches for
       | the first time.
       | 
       | 4-6 times the payload to LEO as the Space Shuttle, but 100%
       | reusable with the aim of fast turn-around times and minimal
       | refurbishment, at a fraction of the price.
       | 
       | Detract from the eccentricity of the company's owner all you
       | want, but the engineers making that rocket happen are doing
       | brilliant work, in my book.
        
         | bumby wrote:
         | > _minimal refurbishment_
         | 
         | Is there any information available on the activities they
         | actually plan on doing in terms of quality checks and
         | refurbishment? I'm a big fan of SpaceX but I also feel like
         | people talk about this point without actually knowing what goes
         | into aerospace refurbishment regarding the level of quality
         | assurance typically required.
         | 
         | I remember back when they had a Falcon 9 failure attributed to
         | a faulty material spec on a strut and the response was they
         | would perform quality checks on future material.[1] As someone
         | who worked in the industry, my initial question was "Why
         | weren't they already doing this?" as it's a commonplace within
         | industry on safety critical or flight hardware.
         | 
         | I've also been involved in rocket rebuilds and to say they need
         | "minimal refurbishment" is a understatement. Even if none of
         | the components actually need rebuilt, the quality inspections
         | still take a lot of time and money. And there's always the
         | chance you find an issue that warrants a legitimate rebuild.
         | 
         | So, while I'm pulling for SpaceX to succeed, my worry is that
         | every failure or close-call like the strut issue will layer
         | additional quality checks that gradually erode that "minimal
         | refurbishment" claim.
         | 
         | [1]https://arstechnica.com/science/2015/07/spacex-says-
         | faulty-s...
        
           | ravedave5 wrote:
           | Rocket reuse is spacex secret sauce, they don't talk about
           | what they do or how much it costs AT_ALL it's kinda
           | frustrating.
        
           | rlt wrote:
           | We don't have to "refurbish" airplanes after every flight.
           | Are the stresses of rocket engines / getting to orbit simply
           | so great there's no way to engineer away "refurbishment"? And
           | will that always be the case, or could advances in materials
           | change that?
        
             | bumby wrote:
             | Aircraft are on very strict maintenance schedules and need
             | to be signed off for airworthiness in order to fly. As the
             | plane ages, this certification is usually signed off by an
             | certified A&P mechanic. It's regulated (in most countries)
             | and acts as the form of quality control. It's not like a
             | car where you can just decide to continue operating at your
             | own risk. (This doesn't generally apply to experimental
             | aircraft, though). So in that context, airplanes are being
             | continuously refurbished. That's also why it's relatively
             | inexpensive to buy a plane, but extremely expensive to own
             | one.
             | 
             | Flight hardware typically has much higher quality
             | standards. Sometimes they use more exotic materials that
             | don't have the background testing to ensure that quality.
             | If you want to use a cheaper new seal material, for
             | example, there's probably not much data available for its
             | compatibility with hypergolic fuels. It's not uncommon to
             | use one-off components in a design, which means they may
             | not have the same type of well-tried process control during
             | manufacture. Then you have the costs of maintaining
             | hardware pedigree (chain-of-custody, maintenance of
             | material test data, lot material coupons for later testing,
             | some of which may need to be maintained in a bonded,
             | climate controlled room etc.).
             | 
             | New materials and manufacturing processes will definitely
             | help and I think SpaceX is doing good work here. But the
             | demands of spaceflight adds constraints. Steel and titanium
             | are the most common non-fatiguing materials. Steel may be
             | too heavy so you might be left with only using titanium,
             | which is much more expensive. And you still haven't done
             | the compatibility testing etc. So while it's a trivial
             | example, you can see how it can become a tough problem to
             | factor in cost, quality, and speed.
        
         | HWR_14 wrote:
         | I mean, they're using modern computers instead of 1970s
         | computers to do the engineering. The formulas are a lot more
         | turnkey now. Is it that impressive a feat when you adjust for
         | the better resources?
        
           | nwah1 wrote:
           | The proper comparison is whether their competitors like ULA
           | can match them or not.
        
         | soperj wrote:
         | Isn't the owner one of the engineers actually working on that
         | rocket? I thought he was very involved in that piece?
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | gamegoblin wrote:
           | The book "Liftoff" (about the early years of SpaceX) paints a
           | picture of Elon as a very smart person with a mind for
           | engineering, but his true value-add over any other aerospace
           | company at the time was his ability to hire the right people
           | and sniff out bullshit.
           | 
           | That is, he knows _enough_ about the engineering to hire
           | people who know _a lot_ about the engineering.
           | 
           | That, combined with his relentless drive (to the point of
           | overwork both on himself and his employees) seems to be the
           | key to SpaceX success.
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | He very much reminds me of Steve Jobs in this regard. Steve
             | was actually a competent technician, if not really an
             | engineer at the time of the founding of Apple, and he
             | really cared deeply about the engineering. He understood
             | the language of engineers and the tradeoffs in a design and
             | I think it's the same with Elon. The fact they both ran
             | completely separate very successful and innovative
             | companies at the same time might be a coincidence, but kind
             | of clinches it for me.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | If you read any of the fokelore stuff, there seems to be
               | some disagreement there. He wanted stuff to look a
               | certain way, but he didn't really understand the
               | engineering trade off. Like asking for a computer with no
               | holes in the case for cooling.
        
               | healthysurf wrote:
               | Well the current Macbook Airs don't have holes, so it's
               | not like it was impossible.
        
             | jxidjhdhdhdhfhf wrote:
             | He also seems to provide pretty good high level direction
             | for his companies. Also, he seems to be a pretty good
             | gambler, willing to take big risks that sometimes pay off
             | huge, whereas others might play things more conservatively
             | and not get such payoffs.
        
             | Tuna-Fish wrote:
             | > That is, he knows enough about the engineering to hire
             | people who know a lot about the engineering.
             | 
             | And he got really exceedingly lucky with his initial hires.
             | One of the founding employees was the best living rocket
             | engine designer in the world, and then later the best
             | rocket salesman in the world convinced him that SpaceX
             | needed proper sales/business development, even in the early
             | stage, and Musk basically replied: "Okay, you're hired", to
             | which she basically replied: "No, that's not what I
             | meant... but okay."
        
               | ralfd wrote:
               | I want to see that movie. Are there professional
               | documentaries?
        
             | tokipin wrote:
             | Here's a video from someone who observed a design review
             | for Starship[1]. From the sound of it, Elon is in the thick
             | of it in the R&D engineering.
             | 
             | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S1nc_chrNQk&t=380s
        
           | geocrasher wrote:
           | He's not necessarily involved in the intimate engineering of
           | rockets. He's deeply involved in the engineering of a rocket
           | _company_.
           | 
           | Talent and Engineering prowess are pointless without
           | direction, and Musk provides strong leadership to move the
           | company in the direction he sees fit. The actual rocket
           | scientists are Woz, and Musk is Jobs.
        
           | phpnode wrote:
           | That seems extremely unlikely, there's only so many hours in
           | the day and while I'm sure that he has a keen eye on what's
           | going on the odds of him being personally involved in the
           | actual engineering are close to zero. If he's spending time
           | doing that it'd actually be a huge failure on his part, there
           | are more important things for him to spend his time on.
        
             | soperj wrote:
             | He's one of the richest people in the world, with a massive
             | interest in space & rockets, and owns the most exciting
             | piece of space technology being built today. Where else
             | would you spend your time in this situation?
        
               | phpnode wrote:
               | I would probably spend my time focussed on growing and
               | sustaining my companies and hiring very skilled people to
               | do that engineering work for me, I'd be very interested
               | in the engineering work, but I wouldn't be doing that
               | work myself. Similarly I don't expect Mark Zuckerberg
               | writes much code at facebook these days, there's just too
               | much other stuff to do
        
               | soperj wrote:
               | If you're goal is literally just a successful company,
               | then sure that makes sense. But if you actually have a
               | passion for what you do (and I'm not arguing that
               | Zuckerberg doesn't have a passion for spying on people),
               | and the company is already a huge success, why wouldn't
               | you spend your time doing something that you think is
               | really really cool and hire very skilled people to do the
               | other stuff?
        
               | mensetmanusman wrote:
               | Exactly this.
               | 
               | If your goal is to get rich and play golf and relax, that
               | is one thing. The fact that Elon is one of the wealthiest
               | people in the world and also as passionate as someone
               | working in their garage seems kind of like a crazy
               | situation.
               | 
               | I wonder if there is similar historical precedence in
               | terms of an ultra wealthy person being interested and
               | involved like he is.
        
             | genericone wrote:
             | I lightly disagree, maybe he doesn't do the calculations or
             | write the tests, but he's almost certainly grilling people
             | all the way down to ensure alignment on engineering. His
             | passion being engineering, he's probably not asking
             | 'program management 101' questions, but doing a smell-test
             | on your technical work and your competence level just as a
             | fellow-level senior engineer would.
        
             | quincunx wrote:
             | For Elon Musk, Jim Keller or even Steve Jobs, their value
             | isn't in manually doing the CAD / VHDL / Code, rather, it
             | is being the Eye of Mordor on the critical path and
             | understanding the solution top to bottom. No excuses, only
             | problem solving.
             | 
             | I feel the key insight behind both SpaceX and Tesla is that
             | both the napkin engineering from first principle and then
             | having the force of will to personally see it through /are/
             | the most important thing. Both qualify as engineering.
             | 
             | Happy to have my fairy tale hero's journey view of success
             | corrected.
        
               | nthj wrote:
               | Anyone inclined to argue against this could maybe sink
               | 1,000 hours into Factorio. The game is simple enough to
               | require 1-person-engineer, but complex enough that the
               | player must both solve low-level problems AND be The Eye
               | of Mordor. If you don't relentlessly pursue both, you get
               | stuck in the tarpit and progress stalls.
        
             | DennisP wrote:
             | A while back I saw an interview with a NASA engineer they
             | loaned to SpaceX for six months. He described a meeting in
             | which two engineering proposals were being debated, and at
             | the end Musk said "ok we'll do it this way" and that was
             | the end of it. The guy was kinda blown away, and said at
             | NASA they'd have had a dozen more meetings first.
             | 
             | Given that SpaceX lives or dies by how well their rockets
             | work, I don't think there's really anything more important
             | for Musk to be doing.
        
               | jp42 wrote:
               | You are talking about Dan Rasky. Link to this interview:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MxIiiwD9C0E
        
           | IfOnlyYouKnew wrote:
           | Elon Musk contains multitudes, including a stellar mind for
           | engineering, a credible claim to be working on products that
           | are good for humanity, excellent business instincts, and the
           | talent to come across as an obnoxious asshole.
           | 
           | Seriously: when you have Bond-villain levels of fame and
           | fortune, I expect you to be at least as clever as Peter Thiel
           | in fucking over people who crossed you. Musk just randomly
           | calling people he doesn't like "pedophiles" on Twitter always
           | feels... I dunno, "small"?
        
             | ethbr0 wrote:
             | It's probably for the best that billionaires draw the line
             | at Twitter rants, rather than... other things that money
             | could buy.
        
             | user-the-name wrote:
             | Maybe there's a reason "pedo" comes to mind so easily for
             | him.
             | 
             | https://i.insider.com/5dbc6d222f364a0a9e077c03?width=2000&f
             | o...
        
             | Cipater wrote:
             | He's just a very rich nerd.
        
             | bdamm wrote:
             | If you're going to quote, at least quote correctly. "pedo
             | guy" was the insult.
        
               | Niglodonicus wrote:
               | Which was pretty funny framing in any case, since Musk's
               | wife Grimes is about 14 years old mentally (just watch
               | any of her recent viral TikTok clips floating around).
        
               | vimacs2 wrote:
               | He also hired a private investigator to target the guy.
               | I'm a huge fan of his work with SpaceX but let's not
               | downplay what a petty asshole he was during that whole
               | thing.
        
               | bdamm wrote:
               | Absolutely. It is worth noting that Tesla was
               | experiencing "production hell" at the time, so obviously
               | Musk was under a ton of stress. That doesn't excuse the
               | behavior, but does make it easier to understand. Frankly,
               | Musk should have kept out of the whole thing, but staying
               | silent isn't the style that anyone operating at that
               | level is going to have.
               | 
               | Asking his team to build a sub is inexcusable. Still love
               | his product, despite the distraction.
        
         | elif wrote:
         | "a fraction of the cost" is an understatement.
         | 
         | By using a 100% reusable vehicle and the cheapest fuel
         | available the aspirational launch cost of starship is $2M.
         | 
         | Even Apples to Oranges it will be an order of magnitude cheaper
         | than the current paradigm of $35M per Falcon9 launch. When you
         | further consider it has 10x the payload capacity, this
         | experiment gets really exciting.
        
           | themgt wrote:
           | It's not even just that it's cheaper to launch, but the full
           | reusability and planned ability to refuel in orbit really
           | make it a game-changer. A fully fueled Starship in LEO can
           | take a huge payload to the Moon, Mars, etc and ideally land
           | itself, potentially refuel in-situ and get back to Earth.
           | They can make minimally-customized modifications for tanker
           | Starship / Lunar Starship / Mars Starship / etc and it's like
           | a space swiss-army knife.
           | 
           | Just look at the National Team / Dynetics HLS proposals with
           | a bunch of expensive, novel custom hardware vs. Space X
           | proposal which was "basically just Starship". It could
           | obviate a huge amount of resources being poured into one-off
           | disposable space hardware and let us instead focus on
           | actually doing stuff in space.
        
           | barbegal wrote:
           | I don't understand how it can be an order of magnitude
           | cheaper. There are more rocket engines to maintain, far more
           | fuel, a more expensive launch structure and generally more
           | expense in all the ground operations. In a world where this
           | can be launched for $2M, Falcon 9 can be launched for less
           | than $1M.
        
             | crawshaw wrote:
             | A falcon 9 launch expends the upper stage. Building the
             | upper stage is now most of the cost of its launch.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | SEJeff wrote:
             | The Falcon 9 can not be launched for less than $1M. Falcon
             | 9 does not reuse the second stage. Elon has said that the
             | second stage is approximately 20% of the cost of a Falcon 9
             | launch. A Falcon 9 needs to have some work done between
             | each launch. Some of the Falcon 9 parts are not actually
             | reusable (crush cores for the landing legs as an example).
             | This is why they can not ever simply fill up a landed
             | Falcon 9 booster, put a new second stage on it, and launch
             | it again. The Starship / Superheavy combo is designed to be
             | able to literally just refuel and go. The Falcon 9 booster
             | is mostly made of aluminum, which is up to 60% more
             | expensive than stainless steel. The Starship / Superheavy
             | are stainless steel.
             | 
             | Methane (Starship fuel) is massively cheaper than Kerosene
             | (Falcon 9 fuel). Methane also has a much higher specific
             | impulse, which means you can use less of it to get the same
             | increase in velocity. Methane can be stored in liquid form
             | in same temperature as oxygen, which means less insulation
             | the two propellant tanks. Inversely, Kerosene will freeze
             | at the temperatures required to get oxygen into liquid
             | form.
             | 
             | Basically, nothing you said is accurate.
        
               | barbegal wrote:
               | You raise a few good points. Falcon 9 launches could be
               | 30% cheaper if fully reusable but that only reduces a
               | launch cost down to $25M.
               | 
               | I am skeptical of the claim that they will just be able
               | to refuel and go. Every reusable space vehicle has had
               | that goal and always cost more than expected to refurbish
               | for the next launch. Yes, we may get there eventually but
               | not in the next few decades, the risks of a catastrophic
               | component failure are too high to do no refurbishment.
               | 
               | The starship and super heavy are certainly cheaper to
               | construct but that has more to do with fabrication
               | techniques than the material cost.
               | 
               | Methane is less dense than kerosene so needs larger tanks
               | but it does have more energy per unit mass. The overheads
               | of using cryogenic fuel are reduced on a larger rocket
               | but the performance gain is probably only 10% or so.
               | 
               | I am not aware of any significant insulation between
               | tanks on the Falcon 9 and it certainly isn't a major cost
               | factor.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | > Every reusable space vehicle has had that goal and
               | always cost more than expected to refurbish for the next
               | launch.
               | 
               | There have only been 2 reusable launch vehicles ever, and
               | both were only partially reusable. Shuttle and Falcon 9.
               | Falcon 9 has already made massive strides in reducing any
               | refurb costs between missions. there is no reason that
               | you couldn't build one that requires no maintenance in
               | between flights for the same reason that there's no
               | reason you can't make an upper stage that can do multiple
               | firings per flight without any maintenance in between.
               | Upper stage reuse will be trickier, but ultimately
               | there's no fundamental reason why refurb has to be done
               | in between every flight.
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | Upper stage reuse doesn't require a landing. If you could
               | refuel an upper stage in space, you could use it for deep
               | space exploration.
               | 
               | Do they deliberately deorbit the Falcon second stage?
               | Would be interesting if we could keep a couple parked in
               | LEO and refuel them for different missions.
        
               | oses wrote:
               | The combination of Methane and the full flow staged
               | combustion cycle also means significantly reduced coking
               | in the engine, so it drastically prolongs the time
               | between engine refurbishments.
        
               | ordu wrote:
               | Do you know how a reduced coking works? I've read about
               | the raptor engine[1] and it explains how fuel rich hot
               | mixture leads to coking, it explains how USA solved this
               | problem before (by using hydrogen as a fuel), but how
               | Musk managed to solve it? Partially burned methane should
               | produce free carbon atoms, shouldn't it? Doesn't it raise
               | a coking problem?
               | 
               | [1] https://everydayastronaut.com/raptor-engine/
        
               | jjk166 wrote:
               | In a conventional hydrocarbon fueled engine, you're using
               | a fuel with hydrocarbon chains at approximately room
               | temperature to cool the engine. With only a little heat
               | addition, you get up to a temperature where these chains
               | can shed hydrogens and convert their C-C-H bonds to C=C
               | double bonds. These bonds in turn allow hydrocarbon
               | chains to join together into larger molecules that can
               | coagulate and stick to the walls.
               | 
               | Methane on the other hand is starting out at a much lower
               | temperature, and it's very difficult to get methane
               | molecules to react with each other to form large
               | molecules as you're not starting with any single C-C
               | bonds. Isolated free carbon atoms (soot) aren't much of a
               | problem.
        
               | Tuna-Fish wrote:
               | > Elon has said that the second stage is approximately
               | 20% of the cost of a Falcon 9 launch.
               | 
               | 20% of the cost of the _whole rocket_. With no reuse. Now
               | that reuse has cut the cost of launch way down, the
               | second stage is much more than that of the cost.
        
               | SEJeff wrote:
               | Oh very good point. The GP's $1 million number per falcon
               | 9 launch was ludicrous.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | I don't think it is. A medium lift vehicle that is fully
               | reusable could be made to have a $1 million launch price.
               | I don't know that Falcon 9 could do that, but some MLV
               | could.
        
               | SEJeff wrote:
               | Ok. Why has no one done it? The economics would surely be
               | there if someone could.
               | 
               | Seemingly, SpaceX is the current best in the world and
               | they couldn't do it.
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | In general, rockets work better the larger they get.
               | Smaller rocket means more structure made per volume of
               | fuel, which will translate to smaller proportional
               | payload capacity. Manufacture cost is mostly a function
               | of the surface while payload capacity is a function of
               | the volume.
        
               | Me1000 wrote:
               | It's amusing how quickly we start taking things for
               | granted.
               | 
               | Right now SpaceX is the only company that recovers their
               | orbital class booster. And that didn't happen until 2016!
               | Prior to that, everyone dismissed landing rockets as
               | impossible. Given the lack of competition for launch
               | vehicles + the fat defense contracts being awarded, there
               | wasn't much incentive for the incumbents to even try to
               | bring the cost down.
               | 
               | Designing a rocket that can land and be reflow is a
               | multiyear process. As other comments have said, more
               | design changes would been needed to F9 to make it more
               | reusable, those changes have tradeoffs. Instead, SpaceX
               | chose to invest in a new design and more capable vehicle.
               | 
               | Other launch providers like RocketLab and Blue Origin are
               | pursuing reusable vehicles.
               | 
               | "Why has no one done it?" give it time... it will happen
               | sooner than we probably expect.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | SpaceX could absolutely do it. They chose not to in order
               | to focus development resources on starship. It's all
               | about opportunity cost.
               | 
               | Also, you'd have to redesign F9 somewhat. Starship has
               | the fairing integrated with the upper stage, which
               | reduces recovery costs. Starship's booster also does
               | Return To Launch Site nominally, which means you don't
               | need a separate recovery droneship (Falcon 9 does that,
               | too, but to make the most out of every expended upper
               | stage, it makes sense to use down-range recovery). The F9
               | legs are sort of complicated logistically whereas Super
               | Heavy is supposed to be recovered by the actual launch
               | site, reducing turnaround time and costs. Also, using
               | methane means less coking in the engines, which reduces
               | turnaround costs and maintenance. Lots of things like
               | that you'd need to reengineer to enable $1 million launch
               | costs, but it's feasible for an MLV. Relativity is
               | planning to do it.
        
               | barbegal wrote:
               | Indeed, I'm using the fact that it's ludicrous to make
               | the case that a $2M starship launch is equally ludicrous.
        
               | btilly wrote:
               | No, it is not ludicrous.
               | 
               | As Elon likes to point out, imagine how expensive it
               | would be to fly if, after every flight, they threw away
               | the plane. That's exactly what people traditionally did
               | with rockets. The result is that the cost to fly a jet is
               | mostly the cost of the fuel, while the cost to fly a
               | rocket is the cost of the rocket.
               | 
               | Consider a Falcon 9 launch. Thanks to reuse, the cost to
               | relaunch is in the neighborhood of $30 million. The cost
               | of the fuel is about $200,000. Over 99% the launch cost
               | is depreciation, maintenance, or having to replace what
               | you didn't reuse.
               | 
               | The aim with Starship is to make the cost of a launch as
               | close to the cost of the fuel as they can get.
        
               | simonh wrote:
               | I'm not sure you understand the arguments being made
               | here. $1m per launch for F9 is ludicrous because 20% of
               | the rocket, by manufacturing cost, is expended on every
               | launch. For Starship none of the rocket is expended per
               | launch, the only costs are site operations, fuel and
               | depreciation on the rocket over a hundred or more
               | flights.
               | 
               | They are aiming for daily launches of starship, so the
               | site operations costs would be divided by potentially
               | hundreds of launches per year instead of the one or two
               | dozen a year nowadays.
               | 
               | The cost model per flight of Starship is more like that
               | of a jumbo jet than that of a Falcon 9.
        
               | dredmorbius wrote:
               | Reuse follows a parallel of Amdahl's law.
               | 
               | Long-term marginal cost is determined by the nonreusable
               | component cost + minimum refurbish & refit costs per
               | launch. Effectively, the benefits of reuse offer
               | diminising marginal benefit per reuse. Though designing
               | for long-term use (say, a personal automobile vs. a
               | rocketship) can still make sense.
               | 
               | An automobile used for daily commute with a 5 year life
               | sees ~1,000 re-uses. You can vary the parameters to get
               | different results. There are fuel, maintanance,
               | garaging/parking, tax/registration, and insurance costs
               | as well.
        
             | slownews45 wrote:
             | Fairing recovery on Felcon 9 is not perfect. Rumor was that
             | alone was something like $5M per launch flushed.
        
             | thinkcontext wrote:
             | The key to the price is that Musk is projecting it will be
             | able to be reused many more times than Falcon 9, as well as
             | a reusable 2nd stage.
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | They expect each vehicle to cost $200m and to fly them 100
             | times each. Hence $2m per launch. Falcon 9 costs a lot more
             | than that because the upper stage is expended each time and
             | that costs mid single-digit millions, and the first stages
             | may not last much beyond a few dozen launches without
             | significant re-engineering which would also make them
             | heavier.
        
               | throwaway316943 wrote:
               | Boy I hope they park them in orbit on the last launch and
               | use them to build space habitats.
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | There was a plan to do that with shuttle tanks. If we
               | used them, the ISS could have a humongous ring of
               | habitable former tanks.
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Actually, Elon once told me that they might be able to
               | build Starship launch vehicles for less than Falcon 9
               | (say about $80 million new):
               | 
               | https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1094793664809689089?s
               | =20
               | 
               | 100 reuses is not the limit either. The first stage in
               | particular may be made for a lot more.
        
           | api wrote:
           | "They're about to pass the great filter... fire the
           | relativistic impactors!"
           | 
           | Seriously though, this is game changing at even 100X that
           | number or $200M per launch. Even if they don't get close to
           | the aspirational price it's going to make a ton of stuff
           | possible in space that was unaffordable before.
        
             | rbanffy wrote:
             | It's already too late for anyone more than 200 ly away.
             | They're better getting used to us.
        
           | GuB-42 wrote:
           | > the aspirational launch cost
           | 
           | So, it means nothing.
           | 
           | The Space Shuttle also was supposed to be cheap and almost
           | completely reusable, it turned out to be one of the most
           | expensive launchers. BFR is not the space shuttle, but I will
           | not make any speculation before I can actually order a
           | launch.
           | 
           | Elon Musk is known for overpromising. The tech is awesome,
           | and SpaceX realizations speak for themselves, but I consider
           | anything Elon Musk says "not even wrong".
           | 
           | I mean, I love SpaceX, and I follow BFR closely, but I think
           | it would be better without the sensationalism.
        
           | _greim_ wrote:
           | Dare I ask how much the space shuttle cost to launch? Another
           | order of magnitude higher? Ha ha.
        
             | acover wrote:
             | 500 - 1500 million
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_Shuttle
        
             | dredmorbius wrote:
             | About $1.2 billion per launch.
             | 
             | https://www.space.com/11358-nasa-space-shuttle-program-
             | cost-...
             | 
             | There's some room for argument, but _on the order of_
             | 1,000x the stated SpaceX Super Heavy booster.
             | 
             | Even if that turns out to be vastly optimistic (not ...
             | unheard of in rocket surgery), it's all but certain that
             | costs will be 100x lower than the Shuttle. Even a 10x
             | factor would be utterly transformational.
             | 
             | I'm not an uncriticle Musk fan, but he's repeatedly
             | delivered on promises I thought were tots redic initially
             | (long-range EVs, reusable boosters, powered return
             | boosters). He's had a few missed deliveries (hyperloop and
             | Boring Co. both seem infeasible, and Mars colonisation
             | still strikes me as a very long shot within 50 years), but
             | we're indisputably closer to those possibilities than
             | before he came on the scene. Credit to engineering teams,
             | there's also something to be said for vision and force of
             | will.
        
         | thinkcontext wrote:
         | > fast turn-around times and minimal refurbishment
         | 
         | This is the biggest risk in the program, along with how many
         | times they can reuse each piece, which is related. Last I
         | looked Musk was projecting using the boosters hundreds of times
         | and the 2nd stage dozens, both obviously very aggressive
         | projections. If the real numbers are lower then the price per
         | flight rises.
         | 
         | As far as I know we don't have any independent way of knowing
         | whether these projections make sense or not. I hope he's right.
         | Even if he's a little wrong and the flight cost was $20M
         | instead of $2M that would be a great thing. But he could also
         | be very wrong and it might not work at all.
        
           | marcusverus wrote:
           | > This is the biggest risk in the program, along with how
           | many times they can reuse each piece, which is related. Last
           | I looked Musk was projecting using the boosters hundreds of
           | times and the 2nd stage dozens, both obviously very
           | aggressive projections.
           | 
           | The first re-flight of a booster was in 2017. The practical
           | science of rocket reuse is _only four years old._ During that
           | time they 've flown ~40 missions with reused cores with zero
           | failures. One Falcon 9 has been reused 10 times. My point is
           | that there is no reason to assume that we've reached the
           | limits of reuse in such a short period of time, so it doesn't
           | seem that aggressive to assume that there is room to improve
           | by ~10x
        
             | thinkcontext wrote:
             | > My point is that there is no reason to assume that we've
             | reached the limits of reuse in such a short period of time,
             | so it doesn't seem that aggressive to assume that there is
             | room to improve by ~10x
             | 
             | There's an enormous gulf between asserting this and the
             | engineering to realize it. Maybe Raptor isn't as reliable
             | as they hope. Maybe 3mm steel is too delicate so they have
             | to stay with 4mm which makes them overweight. Maybe the
             | thermal protection system is too fragile or doesn't provide
             | enough protection. Maybe their novel alloy can't meet its
             | targets. Maybe the tower catch won't work so they need legs
             | which will add too much weight. Etc, etc.
             | 
             | All of those are extremely nontrivial issues, there's a lot
             | of risk because of how ambitious what they are attempting
             | is. I hope they succeed.
        
           | mabbo wrote:
           | This is why I think the crazy ambition of the project is so
           | important. If they're wrong by an order of magnitude they
           | still change everything.
        
           | throwaway0a5e wrote:
           | After they break a bunch working out the kinks I bet hundreds
           | and dozens will be realistic.
        
         | wefarrell wrote:
         | I'm currently reading "Liftoff: Elon Musk and the Desperate
         | Early Days that Launched SpaceX" and I've become convinced that
         | SpaceX's biggest accomplishment is convincing their customers
         | (mostly the US government) to go along with their lean/agile
         | development process.
         | 
         | At a high level everyone was aware that the way the government
         | micromanaging the design/build of rockets with cost plus
         | contracts wasn't sustainable, but the government bureaucracy
         | that awards contracts is heavily entrenched in that mode of
         | operation.
        
           | adventured wrote:
           | Liftoff is an an excellent book. Recommended for anyone
           | interested in SpaceX or space in general. The writer's style
           | is a bit dry, however it's a fun story regardless. The gritty
           | insides of the early days of SpaceX are both what you hoped
           | to read about and sort of crazy remarkable (like the
           | elaborated story about the imploded Falcon 1 that was being
           | transported by C17 and ultimately saved SpaceX from
           | oblivion). People risked their lives to make SpaceX happen.
           | 
           | It reminds me of a bigger company version of Masters of Doom.
           | Same hacker ethos driving those early days.
        
           | bumby wrote:
           | > _to go along with their lean /agile development process._
           | 
           | This is an accurate take, but in reality I think they
           | convinced the government to _outsource_ a lean /agile
           | development process.
           | 
           | 20+ years ago, NASA went through their "better, faster,
           | cheaper" phase to try their own hand at a more agile
           | environment. Unfortunately, it reduced quality and whenever
           | something bad happened more requirements were levied. Now
           | some are beneficial but there's also some that were
           | bureaucratic and process bloat just because of political risk
           | and the fact nobody wanted to be on record saying the risk
           | was acceptable.
           | 
           | I think one unspoken risk is whether the government, as the
           | largest SpaceX customer, will try to enforce the same quality
           | and safety standards as the company matures, particularly
           | with human-rated spaceflight. Or if they are comfortable with
           | a hands-off approach.
        
         | afterburner wrote:
         | This is honestly the first really cool thing SpaceX is doing
         | IMO.
        
           | maccam94 wrote:
           | I would say the boosters landing on drone ships and getting
           | reused 8 times are pretty impressive. Also the Starship
           | landing with the flip.
        
             | afterburner wrote:
             | Yeah, those were cool. But not _really_ cool.
             | 
             | Self landing boosters is just the logical application of
             | control algorithms. As with the "flip".
             | 
             | Super Heavy Boosters, on the other hand, are an interesting
             | new way to solve a problem.
        
               | jxidjhdhdhdhfhf wrote:
               | > logical application of control algorithms.
               | 
               | LOL. Reusable rockets left as an exercise for the reader.
        
               | acover wrote:
               | The test hops that spacex and blue origin did are
               | impressive yes, but you are missing the most impressive
               | part! The booster that landed pushed something to orbital
               | velocity. Getting any significant amount of payload (1-4%
               | of total mass) to orbit is difficult but adding the fuel
               | and equipment needed to accurately land the first stage
               | is another level.
        
       | octopoc wrote:
       | SpaceX launches are the best reality TV show. I'm so glad my
       | children get to watch history being made like this. My dad
       | remembers seeing the moon landings when he was a kid and
       | thinking, "Wow, this is HUGE!" My generation didn't get that
       | experience. But I'm glad my kids do.
        
         | solutron wrote:
         | I got to see Falcon Dragon launch in Florida along the A1-A.
         | People there credit SpaceX for single-handedly rekindling the
         | lure and luster of space travel. They were sad when the shuttle
         | program got shut down by NASA but now a whole new generation of
         | space enthusiasts, optimists, and futurists get to see the
         | awesome advances being made in the US. It's patriotic AF. The
         | color, sparkle and glow of it was something I'll never forget.
         | My only regret is I don't have any children to have shared it
         | with. But there'll be more launches!
        
         | criddell wrote:
         | My parents used to let me stay home from school on days the
         | space shuttle was being launched. I didn't think much of it at
         | the time, but now I realize how awesome that was.
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | SpaceX's synchronized twin booster landing is one of the clips
         | that will define the early 21st century. I'm still not over
         | watching it live.
        
           | wefarrell wrote:
           | That was amazing because they unexpectedly succeeded on their
           | first attempt. The individual falcon 9 landings were a bigger
           | milestone but the success was iterative.
           | 
           | If SpaceX can successfully land starship after the first
           | suborbital flight I think it will dwarf the twin booster
           | landing.
        
             | sebzim4500 wrote:
             | Starship and superheavy are both going to 'land' on the
             | ocean after the first launch. Basically they test the
             | landing process but they don't need to risk one of their
             | (surprisingly expensive) ships and they don't need to
             | request regulatory approval to return to land.
        
               | wefarrell wrote:
               | I knew they were doing that for the booster but thought
               | they would attempt to actually land starship. It makes
               | sense given such an ambitious schedule
        
               | starlust2 wrote:
               | There's so many more things that can go wrong trying to
               | land from orbit that it's not worth the risk trying to
               | land anywhere near people regardless of how much time you
               | have to engineer it.
        
             | SEJeff wrote:
             | They're planning on dumping the first few super heavy
             | boosters in the ocean. This is in the authorizations from
             | the FAA.
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | I wonder how long stainless steel resists in the ocean.
        
           | trothamel wrote:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0FZIwabctw
           | 
           | is my favorite way to watch that launch, just because of the
           | way it integrate the people watching. We haven't had the
           | crowds since the Space Shuttle stopped watching, and DM-2,
           | Crew-1, and Crew-2 all happened during the pandemic - so this
           | shows the old excitement.
        
             | taftster wrote:
             | I love that Chris Hadfield's version of Space Oddity is "up
             | next" after this video.
        
           | mabbo wrote:
           | > I'm still not over watching it live
           | 
           | I had a goal in 2020 to drive from Toronto to Florida to
           | watch the next Falcon Heavy launch and dual-landings. Then
           | the pandemic hit... but conveniently, they pushed back the FH
           | launches by a year as well!
           | 
           | Depending on the status of the border, the pandemic, and all
           | of that, I might take a trip down if they have one this fall.
        
             | mstade wrote:
             | I've seen a rocket launch at KSC and can highly recommend
             | it. (It wasn't SpaceX though.)
             | 
             | One thing to remember though is that launches can easily
             | get scrubbed due to weather, planes flying into the
             | restricted zone etc., so make sure to plan to stay for most
             | if not all of the planned launch window if possible. When I
             | went I stayed at a hotel in Orlando, which can be fun but
             | it's also a bit of a drive so might be worth finding
             | lodging closer to KSC if you're not too keen on driving a
             | fair bit.
             | 
             | If you're viewing the launch from KSC your ticket won't be
             | refunded either, and they'll only open up tickets for the
             | next attempt _after_ the launch is scrubbed so you can 't
             | prebook for all attempts either.
             | 
             | When I went the first attempt was scrubbed, but they
             | launched the next night. This actually worked out better
             | for me, since then I could score tickets to the viewing
             | gantry which was closer to the actual rocket, and an
             | amazing experience.
             | 
             | Pro tip: if you're spending multiple days at KSC just buy a
             | year pass - it's worth it.
             | 
             | Also pro tip: don't forget to visit the nearby warbird
             | museum as well, they've got an amazing collection of
             | airplanes and very knowledgeable volunteers on staff!
        
           | SEJeff wrote:
           | If you're referring to the Falcon Heavy side booster
           | landings, I got to see the first one live at Kennedy Space
           | Center. It was one of the only things in my entire life I'd
           | describe as pure magic. It was amazing and so beautiful to
           | see.
        
             | healthysurf wrote:
             | Definitely on my bucket list to see a live launch
        
         | irrational wrote:
         | My generation had the space shuttles (I still remember watching
         | the challenger explosion at school that day). Your post is the
         | first one to point out to me that in between the end of the
         | space shuttles and space x we had an entire generation with
         | nothing.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | foobarian wrote:
       | > "a fully orbital version of Super Heavy will have 33 of the
       | methane-fueled Raptors."
       | 
       | This both boggles my mind and makes me giddy with excitement.
        
         | PeterisP wrote:
         | Historically, large quantity of engines has been considered
         | problematic - it brings to mind the USSR N1 rocket and the
         | difficulties with its 30 engines, which have been attributed as
         | a (the?) reason for failure of the USSR Moon program.
        
           | ravedave5 wrote:
           | 30 engines that fired for the first time at launch on a
           | prototype vehicle. The falcon heavy launches with 27, with 0
           | failures so far.
        
             | bmcahren wrote:
             | Falcon Heavy runs Merlin engines (Falcon heavy is three
             | falcon 9's strapped together). Starship and Super Heavy
             | booster are running Raptor methalox engines which by fuel
             | choice alone has never been done before on an orbital
             | rocket. The Raptor engines have failed to re-start during
             | the landing sequence but I'm not sure we've seen enough of
             | them to attest to any failure rate yet. The issue with
             | restarting had to do with liquid methane sloshing in the
             | nose cone.
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | > is three falcon 9's strapped together
               | 
               | Now i just imagined the Ultraheavy, which should be 3
               | Superheavies strapped together.
        
         | throwaway0a5e wrote:
         | The USSR tried the "tons of little boosters" approach.
         | 
         | It's taken ~60yr for the manufacturing and control systems to
         | get to the point of being reliable enough to chain together
         | enough boosters to put really big stuff into orbit.
        
       | _Microft wrote:
       | If you are curious about the trajectory that the first orbital
       | launch might follow, have a look at this article:
       | 
       | https://spaceflightnow.com/2021/05/13/spacex-outlines-plans-...
       | 
       | They are aiming to fly Starship over the Straits of Florida (i.e.
       | between Florida and Cuba) which means it will be low inclination.
       | I assume that this is to avoid overflying inhabited area 'early'
       | into the flight and especially not for too long, a trajectory bit
       | further to the south would e.g. mean that they had to fly over
       | the full length of Cuba, Haiti and the Dominican Republic. I
       | would expect them to be "out of the woods" already at this point
       | in the flight though. The next critical part would be reentry
       | north-west of Hawaii.
        
         | jcims wrote:
         | The filing linked from the article is at the FCC b/c they plan
         | to use Starlink terminals on the second stage to maintain
         | telemetry connectivity during the flight (particulary reentry
         | where RF on the windward side is blocked due to plasma effects)
        
         | _ph_ wrote:
         | I have tried to draw a circle around the globe based on the
         | images in the article and there is actually a circle which
         | basically misses everything in the Caribean that just goes
         | south of the Caicos islands, crosses southern Africa, skips
         | barely west of Australia and ends slightly west of Hawaii.
        
       | LeanderK wrote:
       | So this will run on Methane and Liquid Oxygen, right? Is it
       | possible to source this CO2 neutral? Maybe it's not economical
       | right now, but I wonder whether it's realistic to use renewables
       | to produce the fuel in the near future. The massive cost
       | reduction will probably result in far more flights, so I wonder
       | about the environmental impact.
       | 
       | Edit: And would this even be the solution? Methane is a
       | greenhouse-gas after all...
        
         | yazaddaruvala wrote:
         | They need to build these refineries[0] for fuel creation on
         | Mars, so it's very likely they will build and use them at
         | Starbase on Earth to test and gain long-term maintenance
         | experience.
         | 
         | The happy consequence is relatively low net-carbon emissions.
         | 
         | [0] https://cleantechnica.com/2019/10/30/no-you-dont-have-to-
         | wor...
        
         | mabbo wrote:
         | Methane is a greenhouse gas, until you burn it. Then it's water
         | and CO2.
         | 
         | The wikipedia article on methane says something like "There is
         | little incentive to produce methane industrially". Basically,
         | we have too much of it already, from fracking, from livestock,
         | from all sorts of places.
         | 
         | Giving it to SpaceX to burn as rocket fuel makes it a less
         | potent greenhouse gas.
        
         | adrianN wrote:
         | Yes, it's not terribly difficult to make Methane from CO2 and
         | water using some electrolysis and the Sabatier reaction. You
         | can also do that on Mars.
        
           | LeanderK wrote:
           | Do you know what happens when the engine burns the fuel? What
           | gets released into the atmosphere? I know methane is a
           | greenhouse gas but when it's getting burned it doesn't get
           | released raw.
        
             | adrianN wrote:
             | Methane burns with oxygen to carbon dioxide and water.
             | CH4+2O2->CO2 + H2O
        
             | yazaddaruvala wrote:
             | Very basically this is the bi-directional formula:
             | 
             | Methane + O2 <=> CO2 + H2O + energy
        
             | lizknope wrote:
             | methane + oxygen = carbon dioxide + water
             | 
             | https://www.middleschoolchemistry.com/multimedia/chapter6/l
             | e...
        
         | Me1000 wrote:
         | Musk has stated it's SpaceX intention to create methane from
         | the CO2 in the air, powered by solar panels. (Basically the
         | same technology they want to use on Mars to produce the return
         | trip propellant)
         | 
         | Burning the methane will of course release CO2 back into the
         | atmosphere, but if they indeed make the methane by pulling CO2
         | from the air, it would effectively make Starship (the fuel
         | anyway) carbon neutral.
         | 
         | (I guess actually it's a bit carbon negative because some of
         | the engine burn will happen in space).
        
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