[HN Gopher] Amazon has acquired Facebook's satellite internet team
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Amazon has acquired Facebook's satellite internet team
        
       Author : alexrustic
       Score  : 183 points
       Date   : 2021-07-14 14:13 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.engadget.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.engadget.com)
        
       | cheche07 wrote:
       | Amazon War: fight with dollaroni$$$
        
       | miguelrochefort wrote:
       | It's amazing how big these tech companies are getting:
       | 
       | https://miguelrochefort.com/blog/tech-giant/
        
         | yaitsyaboi wrote:
         | Fascinating blog post. Satellite internet seems just as
         | valuable to FB as Amzn I wonder why they'd spin it off when
         | they have so many other projects that are less useful
        
       | thenightcrawler wrote:
       | This makes it sound like a trade.
        
       | thenightcrawler wrote:
       | This makes it sound like a sports team trarde.
        
       | AlexandrB wrote:
       | Imagine Walmart at the height of their retail power, but they
       | also control the infrastructure running a huge portion of the
       | internet, several media properties, and are working on creating a
       | new ISP - that's Amazon. We're heading into a world where the
       | likes of Standard Oil will look like a quaint "lifestyle
       | business" compared to the FAANG giants.
        
         | skissane wrote:
         | They are creating an ISP, but how successful is it going to be?
         | The clear leader in satellite Internet constellations is SpaceX
         | Starlink, and Kuiper compares poorly to what Starlink offers.
         | SpaceX is going to have a bigger constellation. SpaceX already
         | has a bigger constellation - over 1600 satellites in orbit,
         | compared to zero launched yet for Kuiper. SpaceX has a huge
         | advantage in having their own launch vehicles (Falcon 9, with
         | Starship under development). Amazon has to rely on third party
         | launch providers, and it isn't willing to choose SpaceX (SpaceX
         | COO Gwynne Shotwell has said they are happy to launch
         | competitors' constellations, but obviously Amazon doesn't want
         | to fund its main competitor). For now it has chosen ULA, but
         | ULA costs significantly more than SpaceX, and with Starship the
         | gap is going to become even bigger. Amazon's other major option
         | is Blue Origin - which, although owned by Bezos, is not an
         | Amazon company - but while Blue Origin's launch system New
         | Glenn is competitive on paper with SpaceX's (being in between
         | Falcon 9 and Starship in capability), its maiden launch
         | probably isn't until 2023 at the earliest. I think it is likely
         | that Starship will be launching Starlink satellites before New
         | Glenn is launching Kuiper.
        
         | iooi wrote:
         | Rockefeller's wealth was ~420 billion (inflation adjusted) at
         | its peak. That's significantly more than Bezos and Gates
         | combined. So no, Standard Oil won't look like a lifestyle
         | business compared to FAANG giants. You can make a point without
         | using hyperbole.
         | 
         | > also control the infrastructure running a huge portion of the
         | internet
         | 
         | AWS has less market share than Microsoft. The Cloud is a pretty
         | competitive space.
         | 
         | > are working on creating a new ISP
         | 
         | This is great, look what Google Fiber did to fiber availability
         | in the US. More competition is great in this space.
         | 
         | I find it ironic that you're complaining about FAANGs in the
         | context of ISPs, who control literal monopolies in several
         | regions.
        
           | ransom1538 wrote:
           | "Rockefeller's wealth was ~420 billion (inflation adjusted)
           | at its peak."
           | 
           | Dumb question. Why do people use inflation? Like Rockefeller
           | would take the cash and put in a %2.5 account for 100 years?
           | He probably would have put it in an investment at minimum
           | gaining %7-10 account for 100 years - giving him multiple
           | trillions.
        
             | gopalv wrote:
             | > Why do people use inflation?
             | 
             | Because it is very hard to think about the currency values
             | in terms of purchasing power.
             | 
             | Inflation is the lowest metric in that count, but reflects
             | a somewhat uniform drop in purchasing power (per dollar)
             | across the whole market.
             | 
             | My friend's mom told me her mortgage for a Bay Area house
             | was 75$ a month, the two cars parked in front were worth
             | more than a 2 bed house when she got the cars.
             | 
             | So it was much cheaper to buy a house, but much more
             | expensive to get a car and I can't even have a ballpark
             | figure for what a gigabyte of computer memory would have
             | cost in 1971.
             | 
             | So, inflation adjustment is at best a rough proxy for
             | purchasing power at current costs.
        
             | lhball wrote:
             | Even if you factor in investment returns you're not getting
             | the full picture IMO unless you take into account price
             | increases over time as well.
             | 
             | A common refrain is that Carnegie Hall only cost $1M
             | ($29,581,868.13 when adjusted for inflation) to build, so
             | why do we still credit its founder with their name?
             | Shouldn't we rename it in honor of someone who's
             | contributed more to the Hall?
             | 
             | What this doesn't take into account is what it would cost
             | to _build_ a new Carnegie Hall today. Labor is far more
             | expensive (highest $/hr ever in 2019 if I'm not mistaken
             | [1]) today and so are building materials [2].
             | 
             | So it's true he'd see compounding returns from investing,
             | but to do what they did back then would cost significantly
             | more today. IE, their dollars took them further back then.
             | 
             | Also, worth noting Rockefeller donated 6% of his salary to
             | charity every pay check every single year of his life, not
             | just when he could "afford" it [3]. So if you take into
             | account the _missed_ compound returns of those charitable
             | contributions, you can start to get a sense for just
             | otherworldly their charitable efforts were.
             | 
             | Not trying to say these guys were angels. And yet, as rich
             | as they were, I think too often that overshadows the
             | gargantuan contributions to charity they made.
             | 
             | [1](https://fredblog.stlouisfed.org/2018/02/are-wages-
             | increasing...) [2](https://tradingeconomics.com/united-
             | states/consumer-price-in...) [3](https://www.philanthropyro
             | undtable.org/almanac/people/hall-o...)
        
               | nicoburns wrote:
               | > And yet, as rich as they were, I think too often that
               | overshadows the gargantuan contributions to charity they
               | made.
               | 
               | Is it really such a great thing to give away money you
               | don't need. IMO tha should be the absolute minimum
               | baseline expectation for someone who controls so much
               | wealth.
        
             | canadianwriter wrote:
             | Because it helps the average person get a sense of scale -
             | instead of saying '100 million, but that's 5 times ore
             | than....' you just do the inflated number and people get a
             | better sense of scale.
        
             | jhgb wrote:
             | Presumably to compare purchasing power. Your investment
             | idea actually distorts the comparison since it involves
             | additional labor and wealth creation.
        
             | ysavir wrote:
             | I don't know why people are downvoting this. I want to say
             | thank you for taking the time and asking a question, and
             | for actively making an effort to understand something
             | better. I hope the downvotes don't dissuade you (or anyone
             | else) from asking questions in the future.
        
             | naveen99 wrote:
             | I prefer fraction of total global wealth as the units. it's
             | hard to get good estimates though.
        
             | majormajor wrote:
             | It's because the question isn't "how much money would
             | Rockefeller have now if he'd time traveled while his
             | investments sat there," it's "how much did he have relative
             | to today's wealthy" and the easiest comparison point we
             | have there is to inflation-adjust and compare that to our
             | existing mental feeling for "how rich is Bezos."
        
             | brtkdotse wrote:
             | Because the point is to give an apples-to-apples comparison
             | of the value represented. It's not Rockefeller's fortune
             | and it's growth that's interesting but rather how many Big
             | Macs his fortune could buy in 1921 vs how much that many
             | Big Macs would cost in 2021.
        
               | cma wrote:
               | But they were comparing Amazon to STD oil, not Bezos
               | (diluted in divorce) to Rockefeller. Rockefeller owned a
               | full third, Bezos 11%, Gates 1% (but similar foundation
               | setup to Rockefeller maybe, and at one point was 49% or
               | something, but of a much smaller MS than today).
        
           | phscguy wrote:
           | Well actually, Standard Oil peak market cap was about $1
           | trillion. Rockefeller owned about 25% of this. The rest of
           | Rockefeller's wealth came from the rise in share values post-
           | split. Standard Oil at it's peak actually had lower market
           | cap than any of Apple(2.5T), Google(1.7T), Amazon(1.9T),
           | Microsoft(2.1T) have today, and is about on par with Facebook
           | (1T).
           | 
           | FAANG is huge and market caps already greatly exceed that of
           | the old-school monopolies.
        
             | tomarr wrote:
             | It is fair to say this is quite distorted by the impact of
             | very low interest rates on expectations of future profits
             | though, which is a key component in the share price.
        
           | flutas wrote:
           | >AWS has less market share than Microsoft. The Cloud is a
           | pretty competitive space.
           | 
           | They didn't say a "majority" though, they just said a huge
           | portion.
           | 
           | In the context of the internet and how many devices are out
           | there, I think he would absolutely be right in saying "a huge
           | portion."
        
           | vxNsr wrote:
           | > _AWS has less market share than Microsoft. The Cloud is a
           | pretty competitive space._
           | 
           | According to gartner[0] AWS has over double Azure's market
           | share by revenue.
           | 
           | What metric are you using for your stat?
           | 
           | [0] https://www.gartner.com/en/newsroom/press-
           | releases/2021-06-2...
        
         | amelius wrote:
         | This is basic infrastructure/utility and should be run by the
         | government (with companies as contractors).
        
           | rpmisms wrote:
           | Yes. It should absolutely become less agile, over-regulated,
           | more expensive, and less convenient.
        
             | amelius wrote:
             | Don't forget that government institutions invented the
             | internet, then companies messed it up.
        
           | dominojab wrote:
           | i disagree , government is prone to corruption when it
           | envolves contractors, also a private company has way more
           | interest in running things as efficiently as possible , that
           | being said there should be very nicely tailored rules and
           | regulations in which companies participate or at least make
           | suggestions.
        
         | k__ wrote:
         | Doesn't Biden plan to go big on anti trust laws?
         | 
         | Some stuff I read sounded rather bleak for the likes of FAANG.
        
           | ceejayoz wrote:
           | Politicians' plans and politicians' accomplishments tend to
           | be vastly different things.
        
             | dan_quixote wrote:
             | We're starting to get some political alignment on anti-
             | trust against Amazon at least. Though one party seems
             | motivated by worker/consumer right, the other by
             | retaliation for Bezos' ownership of WaPo.
        
               | paxys wrote:
               | Considering Bezos is hardly involved with Amazon anymore
               | it'll be hard to tie WaPo into its antitrust case.
        
               | dave5104 wrote:
               | Do they need to tie WaPo into whatever antitrust may hit
               | Amazon? As long as it's hurting Jeff Bezos, I'm sure some
               | will be happy about it.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | I fully expect Amazon's lobbying arms to be able to
               | exploit that sort of ideological split.
        
               | fallingknife wrote:
               | It would be very easy for Bezos to divest WaPo or tilt
               | its coverage more conservative to buy off an anti-trust
               | issue.
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | Pokepokalypse wrote:
           | lol.
           | 
           | So; how did antitrust work out for Bell? Not too terribly
           | bad, in the long run. (Though there were huge benefits for us
           | consumers. . . )
        
             | majormajor wrote:
             | The various Standard Oil split results had some nice
             | successes, too.
             | 
             | Honestly I'm not sure of the main corporate opposition to
             | anti-trust other than ego and/or laziness. It'll force the
             | resulting business to get even better. If you got your
             | position by being the best, you can still be the best in
             | the new world.
        
         | adrr wrote:
         | Walmart sells a lot more stuff than Amazon. People over
         | estimate the size of Amazon and total retail sales.
        
           | yaitsyaboi wrote:
           | Amazon has higher retail sales than Walmart?
        
             | neolog wrote:
             | That question mark is confusing
        
               | TchoBeer wrote:
               | I'm not confused by it, though I'm a native English
               | speaker and live in an English speaking country and spend
               | most of my internet time on English speaking internet, so
               | maybe that's why
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | pastrami_panda wrote:
               | If you have to ask what it symbolizes - it doesn't
        
             | thedogeye wrote:
             | Yes, Amazon does more retail sales than Walmart. Their
             | "revenue" is only 15% on all third party sales, which are
             | now more than half of total sales on the platform. They
             | don't report on total sales on the platform on purpose to
             | avoid drawing attention to the fact that they are bigger
             | than Walmart.
        
             | dmoy wrote:
             | I think amazon may have higher total sales on its platform,
             | but like 60% of their sales are actually sold by other
             | marketplace sellers, not Amazon.
             | 
             | Walmart meanwhile does also have a marketplace, but I think
             | still sells the overwhelming majority of their stuff direct
             | in their physical stores.
             | 
             | Remember Walmart has revenue of like 600 billion a year or
             | something crazy.
        
               | adrr wrote:
               | Shopify for comparison is almost half the size of Amazon
               | Marketplace but on trajectory to match it in the next two
               | years.
        
               | jjeaff wrote:
               | But that 15% that amazon takes (not counting the extra
               | cut they take for Fulfilled by Amazon items) is larger
               | than Walmart's average markup. So that isn't really an
               | argument against their size.
        
       | pinewurst wrote:
       | Can you imagine working at FB, which despite its considerable
       | ethical failings, is a decent employer from what I've seen and
       | suddenly being told you're going to Amazon and need to start
       | memorizing The Principles?
        
         | Kiro wrote:
         | Landing a job at either Facebook or Amazon is an unachievable
         | dream for most people so I have a hard time to feel sorry for
         | anyone here. In their position they can get any job they want.
        
           | Xeronate wrote:
           | What makes it unachievable? The process is very
           | straightforward. Every friend of mine that wanted to work at
           | FAANG has been able to and you really just need to spend a
           | couple weeks/months practicing.
        
             | josephh wrote:
             | visa issue.
        
             | vxNsr wrote:
             | One of the more "hn" comments I've seen lately. Assuming
             | every person in the world is an ivy league graduate, with a
             | high IQ, and A+ coding talent is a little bit out of touch
             | with reality.
        
               | Xeronate wrote:
               | I just don't think those are the requirements to get a
               | job at FAANG. I went to a mid sized public school in the
               | midwest that isn't even in the top 100 US schools, my IQ
               | is definitely average, and I seriously didn't understand
               | sorting algorithms when I first saw them in my intro to
               | programming class. With time and practice anything is
               | possible.
               | 
               | And I want to echo a point filoleg made. You don't need
               | to be the top 1%. It's not like Ivy League school
               | acceptance where they are artificially throwing people
               | out. FAANG is dying to hire. My team has been trying to
               | hire multiple people for months and we have gotten
               | exactly 0. Every hiring manager goes into interviews
               | wanting to say yes and the requirements are extremely
               | clear and manageable for anyone willing to put in the
               | time.
        
               | vxNsr wrote:
               | My understanding is that for any given age the average IQ
               | is 100. Are you seriously suggesting that you would score
               | 100 on an IQ test? I highly doubt that considering that
               | your manager is so motivated to hire but simply can't.
        
             | throw1234651234 wrote:
             | I am an architect at a "prestigious" midwest consulting
             | firm without a formal IT background. It would take me 6
             | months of prep to pass a FAANG interview, and that's from a
             | starting point of knowing virtually everything I don't
             | know.
             | 
             | AND I am only talking about the algorithm and behavioral
             | parts of the interview and working on the assumption that I
             | will pass any general questions on system design, ML, etc.
             | 
             | Other than the CS degree, you are also make a 130+ IQ
             | assumption here.
        
               | Xeronate wrote:
               | Even if it took 6 months, is that such a big deal for
               | what is probably a large pay raise and potentially the
               | opportunity to work on cooler and more impactful things
               | with better coworkers? And for the record the idea that
               | 130+ IQ is necessary is ridiculous. I can assure you I'm
               | well below that.
        
               | throw1234651234 wrote:
               | Point by point:
               | 
               | 1. IQ is going to be in the 120-130 range for MIT and
               | other FAANG target schools
               | (https://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/occupations.aspx and
               | factor in the GPA necessary and those correlations). If
               | you are NOT from those schools, you are less competitive
               | and have more to catch up on. Whatever you say, either
               | you had a lot of study free time or your IQ is higher
               | than you think, as IQ translates directly to learning
               | speed, ESPECIALLAYA on computer-related tasks.
               | 
               | 2. Big deal. For a young student out of school? No, it's
               | the rational choice, though a lot of people out of
               | school/college NEED to work to keep the bills paid. For
               | older people - dedicating a good 3-4 hours a day is going
               | to lead them to underperform at work (at least it would
               | for me), so it's kind of a big risk.
               | 
               | The pay increase is also "debatable", arguments like COL,
               | vesting, decrease in quality of life due to commute,
               | relatively-high (by non-FAANG) standards salary, taxes,
               | etc come up. And that's without mentioning potential
               | kids.
        
             | void_mint wrote:
             | "In my bubble it has been achievable so it must be
             | achievable for everyone"
             | 
             | There is a reason that most people do not work at FAANG.
        
             | darkwizard42 wrote:
             | The process is straightforward to become an Olympian too,
             | you still don't see people doing it every day. You can run
             | every damn day if you want, but I'll bet dollars it would
             | still be difficult to run a sub 3:00 marathon for most
             | people.
             | 
             | Working at FAANG is easily regarded as one of the higher
             | end jobs in the SWE world (from comp and prestige) and does
             | generally require you to be in the top % of people who know
             | how to code. That much is fairly indisputable so
             | unachievable is a good way to put it for most folks (even
             | if they are into programming already)
        
               | iooi wrote:
               | I think this is half the problem when people interview at
               | FAANGs -- they think it's like preparing for olympics and
               | you truly have to be in the top 1%.
               | 
               | It's really not. There's thousands and thousands of
               | engineers, from mediocre to truly great. With the right
               | preparation, a lot of it just comes down to getting lucky
               | with who interviews, how they're feeling that day, etc --
               | luck.
               | 
               | You might find this interesting:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r8RxkpUvxK0
        
               | darkwizard42 wrote:
               | I mean, you can say the SAME thing about getting into an
               | Ivy League school. Your application and skillset is
               | likely similar to THOUSANDs and yet still, you have to
               | prepare like it is the Olympics AND have luck. No one
               | lucks their way into FAANG, you still have to answer the
               | questions well and contrary to much of the HN crowd,
               | these are not easy questions for most folks EVEN after
               | studying...
               | 
               | You can't get in without both luck and preparation. That
               | part I won't deny, but most exclusive things in life
               | involve that bit of luck since everyone starts to hit the
               | "threshold" of qualifications pretty fast
        
               | filoleg wrote:
               | >I mean, you can say the SAME thing about getting into an
               | Ivy League school.
               | 
               | No, you cannot say the same thing about Ivy League
               | admissions, at least not at the current point in time.
               | Ivy League has a massive supply of qualified candidates
               | to fill the demand (aka the fixed number of seats they
               | have) many many times over. Tech companies don't have
               | that luxury. They have a lot of candidate supply, but the
               | "qualified" candidate supply is much more difficult to
               | come by.
               | 
               | Ivy League admission officers admitted multiple times in
               | public interviews and public statements that there are a
               | lot of people that would qualify and succeed at those
               | schools just fine, but the schools have very limited
               | numbers of seats, so they have to have the bar be set
               | higher and higher in order to accommodate truly the
               | "best" (based on whatever metrics they use to determine
               | the best).
               | 
               | With FAANG? They are desperate to hire good engineers. As
               | someone who interviewed candidates at one of them, for
               | every single interview I went with the mindset that I
               | want to hire that person, as long as they demonstrate
               | they are competent enough to do the job. There is no such
               | thing as "limited" number of spots (as it is with Ivy
               | League admissions). If every single candidate we
               | interview is qualified, we will hire every single one of
               | them, we won't be artificially raising the bar just to
               | accommodate a specific X number of people because we
               | cannot fit more. We can. Of course, my specific team
               | cannot hire 50 people, but if all 50 candidates are
               | competent, we will try to set them up with one of our
               | sister teams or any other team in the company that
               | desperately needs engineers, and there are tons of those
               | teams.
               | 
               | The real problem is that a lot of those people we
               | interview tend to not even be able to do fizzbuzz, and I
               | am not exaggerating. I used to think that people said
               | that statement as a joke back then, but after
               | interviewing enough candidates, I realized that they
               | weren't kidding.
               | 
               | TL;DR: they aren't similar, because Ivy League has a
               | fixed number of seats available, and even if every
               | candidate is qualified, they can only accommodate a
               | predetermined number of them, so they have to
               | artificially raise the cutoff metrics. For every
               | candidate my team interviews, we can easily hire every
               | single one of them if they are competent, without
               | artificially raising the bar just to have a fixed number
               | of hires.
        
               | void_mint wrote:
               | > they think it's like preparing for olympics and you
               | truly have to be in the top 1%.
               | 
               | You have to be capable and interested in passing a FAANG
               | interview. Presumably those that failed the FAANG
               | interview process are either incapable or uninterested.
               | My money says it's mostly the former.
               | 
               | You have to pass-as what FAANG deems as the top 1%. Most
               | people don't.
        
         | sparrc wrote:
         | perhaps they can dry their tears with hundred-dollar bills /s
        
         | birdyrooster wrote:
         | This is America and if you are upper or middle casted, then
         | Amazon will give you better accommodations and compensation.
         | It's comfy, don't worry about those people.
        
           | iooi wrote:
           | Is this a reference to Amazon being disproportionately
           | Indian?
        
             | birdyrooster wrote:
             | America has a caste system too but we call it "class"
             | typically to make it seem more meritocratic. In
             | conversation we typically focus on the exceptional cases of
             | economic mobility rather than the rule. I did use caste on
             | purpose to draw the parallel to India, a place where
             | Britain famously used the caste system to rule.
        
               | rpmisms wrote:
               | That's a little bit intellectually dishonest. Class
               | mobility does exist, albeit more rarely than it should,
               | and unlike places with enforced social systems, you can't
               | tell someone's social class by their name or clothes.
               | 
               | Class is also a generalization: I'm a gainfully employed
               | SWE, and I (by choice) live in a neighborhood where I
               | hear gunshots nightly. I don't own any new clothing, my
               | nicest pair of shoes are my work boots, and my friends
               | are almost entirely blue-collar people. I could easily
               | afford to live like an upper-middle-class yuppie, but I
               | border on lower class at first glance.
               | 
               | Is class entirely economic, or is there a social aspect?
        
         | MisterPea wrote:
         | amazon subsidiaries still operate with their previous culture
         | to some degree. Twitch is much different than the rest of
         | amazon. However, since they will be merging into an existing
         | org not sure if their culture will remain
        
           | walrus01 wrote:
           | I'm sure Amazon Corp HQ is taking a boiled frog approach to
           | absorbing things like this.
        
           | chrislan815 wrote:
           | I heard they are still very much different from amazon after
           | the merge which is good to hear. However, it was told by a
           | hiring manager :) So it's not from my personal experience.
        
             | TheHydroImpulse wrote:
             | still very different but amazon has its influences in many
             | parts of the company now.
        
             | tmccrary55 wrote:
             | It's going to be at least a year before the incoming FB
             | team will be taking their vows.
        
         | oh_sigh wrote:
         | I've worked at Amazon and other FANG companies and I honestly
         | miss amazon's leadership principles. They're really just
         | assigning a phrase to a Good Idea (TM).
        
           | kindall wrote:
           | The leadership principles are an important part of Amazon's
           | solution to the problem of getting hundreds of thousands of
           | employees pulling in the same general direction. They are
           | easy to get people to sign on to because they are, for the
           | most part, obviously good ideas succinctly stated. People at
           | Amazon actually use them to make decisions daily.
           | 
           | Other companies don't propagate their corporate culture so
           | explicitly, so it seems a little weird and cultish. But if
           | you're a big company doing things the same way other big
           | companies do them, you're going to get the same results that
           | other big companies get. Amazon wants to get better results
           | than other big companies.
           | 
           | When I started at Amazon, I felt like 14 was simply too many.
           | I tried to do a Carlin-style winnowing, but darned if I could
           | get the number below twelve without starting to lose things
           | that the company obviously thinks are important. (They
           | recently added two more, by the way.)
           | 
           | As a bonus, after a stint at Amazon, your familiarity with
           | their leadership principles can make you very desirable to
           | other companies. I know a number of people who were
           | individual contributors at Amazon and were snagged by
           | Microsoft for leadership positions, either team leads or
           | product managers.
        
           | teachrdan wrote:
           | I would have trouble with the blatant hypocrisy. To take an
           | example from just yesterday, Amazon has internal documents
           | that instruct managers to hide from employees when they're on
           | a PIP. How can you reconcile that with "Strive to be Earth's
           | Best Employer"?
           | 
           | https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-tells-
           | bo...
           | 
           | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27786009
        
             | majormajor wrote:
             | https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/9/22570579/amazon-
             | performanc...
             | 
             | It seems like this is a sorta "pre-PIP"?
             | 
             | > If Amazon employees don't improve while unknowingly in
             | the Focus program, they are then placed into the "Pivot"
             | program, according to previous reporting from Business
             | Insider. Employees told Business Insider that if they were
             | placed in Pivot, they were either offered a severance
             | package or given a chance to be put on a performance
             | improvement plan.
             | 
             | So "Focus" is more a manager-focused thing and then if the
             | manager isn't able to turn things around, out comes the
             | real PIP, is my impression.
             | 
             | Honestly, I've had to put someone on a PIP before, and more
             | support and training on what to do _before_ it got that bad
             | would 've been very appreciated.
             | 
             | I think the manager needs to be transparent about "you need
             | to do better" but not about internal management practices
             | necessarily at that point.
        
             | tdowns wrote:
             | That LP didn't exist until after the article was published.
             | There is some hope that it could be leveraged to remove
             | that kind of guidance from mid-level leaders.
        
             | b3kart wrote:
             | There are probably better examples you could've used.
             | They've literally added "Strive to be Earth's Best
             | Employer" to the list of principles like yesterday. At the
             | very least they seem to have recognized the problem,
             | shouldn't we give them an opportunity to actually try to
             | fix it?
        
             | imwillofficial wrote:
             | "Strive to be earth's best employer" isn't a leadership
             | principle. - oh shit, it is now! My bad!
             | 
             | And "instruct managers to hide from employees when they're
             | on a PIP"
             | 
             | This is not as clear cut. The document cited by Seattle
             | times clearly states to not go into details of the Focus
             | application, and instead go into how they can improve.
             | 
             | A quote: "Do not discuss Focus with employees. Instead,
             | tell the employee that their performance is not meeting
             | expectations, the specific areas where they need to
             | improve, and offer feedback and support to help them
             | improve."
        
               | teachrdan wrote:
               | "Do not discuss Focus with employees." I don't know how
               | much more direct this could possibly be. The _only_ time
               | the policy allows managers to tell employees they 're on
               | a PIP is if the employee asks directly. That's literally
               | hiding the truth as much as they possibly can without
               | actually lying.
        
               | kindall wrote:
               | If your manager is telling you that your performance is
               | lacking and that you need to improve in specific areas,
               | how is that really any different from being told you are
               | on a PIP, _and_ the rest of that? That is, what would
               | you, as an employee, do differently if you were told
               | specifically that you had been placed on a formal PIP,
               | rather than just being told how you needed to improve?
        
               | tobyjsullivan wrote:
               | > what would you, as an employee, do differently
               | 
               | Start looking for another job _before_ I get fired. Which
               | I assume is about 10x easier than doing so after the
               | fact.
        
           | pinewurst wrote:
           | The Principles are merely words used as tools - often for
           | selfish or even evil purposes - not some sort of adamantine
           | moral backbone. The idea that they exist somehow gives a
           | higher sanction to the acts performed ostensibly in their
           | name.
        
       | herbst wrote:
       | Is there any reason we need several private companies doing their
       | own thing instead of making this a world wide project where every
       | company can buy in?
       | 
       | I mean sure nobody would have done anything like that without
       | Starlink. But it's like every mobile provider would setup their
       | own antennas in a way.
        
         | kube-system wrote:
         | In a broader sense, I think that redundant competing efforts to
         | accomplish the same task is a much more reliable path to
         | success.
        
         | toast0 wrote:
         | It might be a more efficient network if it were a single
         | system.
         | 
         | However, having the option to switch networks increases the
         | efficiency of administration, customer service, etc.
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | Competition is the best way to produce desired outcomes.
        
           | herbst wrote:
           | While this is true in a way it is to simple. Ex. Health care,
           | heavily regulated in Europe and hell we are glad it is if the
           | free market would be something like in the U.S. Or credit
           | card fees, there is to little competition in the free market
           | we (Europeans) are glad that the fees are somewhat regulated
           | and therefore much lower. And honestly our local internet and
           | mobile market is not bad either, sure a more open market
           | could lower the prices but private companies would have no
           | interest bringing fiber or proper 4g or 5g in regions with
           | only a handful of people, but there is. Germany for example
           | has bad internet coverage and they given away most of the
           | responsibility to private companies
           | 
           | TL:Dr it's not black and white
        
             | colinmhayes wrote:
             | Yea, competition doesn't work when there are market
             | failures. There is no competition is the us healthcare
             | market because pricing is opaque and consumers have very
             | limited information compared to doctors. Natural monopolies
             | like wired internet can't have competition either.
             | 
             | I don't see how satellite internet falls victim to such
             | egregious market failures.
        
         | robbedpeter wrote:
         | Various reasons - capitalism, the degraded ability of
         | bureaucracies to manage things compared to agile private
         | enterprises as technology improves, conflicts of interest
         | between nation states, and so forth. Government is not a great
         | mechanism to drive innovation by itself, especially cooperative
         | multi-state efforts. Things are better managed by governments
         | setting good rules in place and private sector entities doing
         | whatever they can to profit within the bounds of those rules.
        
         | paxys wrote:
         | You are getting downvoted but this is 100% true. Imagine if
         | every maps provider or weather app had to launch their own
         | satellites to offer basic functionality. A large collective
         | investment into core infrastructure benefits everyone. Not
         | every aspect of life needs to be a privatized free for all.
        
           | herbst wrote:
           | Yeah. I too totally realize that this is simply how
           | competition works and prolly even leads to a more competitive
           | and better market. Our mobile market is a expensive mess
           | because of the regulation.
           | 
           | I understand all of that. I guess it's just wishful thinking
           | that this could be one thing where the world gets their shit
           | together.
        
         | JoeDaDude wrote:
         | This worked for GPS [0] because it was conceived as a purely
         | military project (and still is mostly). Once established, it
         | was opened up to civilian and commercial uses. But even so,
         | other countries and supra-national organizations decided they
         | needed their own navigation satellite systems, and now we have
         | Galileo [1] and Beidou [2].
         | 
         | Maybe if the military had done this first, a similar path would
         | follow (not likely though). As it is, the military is planning
         | their own massive LEO satellite system [3].
         | 
         | [0]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_Positioning_System
         | [1].
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Galileo_(satellite_navigation)
         | [2]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BeiDou [3].
         | https://www.sda.mil/us-military-places-a-bet-on-leo-for-spac...
        
           | 0xffff2 wrote:
           | Also GLONASS (Sovient/Russian) and a couple of regional
           | systems from India and Japan.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Satellite_navigation
        
       | exdsq wrote:
       | > Amazon aims to have a 3,236-satellite constellation in orbit by
       | 2029
       | 
       | Assuming Starlink is similar, are there any risks of
       | "imprisonment" on Earth having ~8k low-orbit satellites flying
       | around? In that they gravely affect efforts to fly Humans to the
       | Moon/Mars?
        
         | ncallaway wrote:
         | I haven't looked at the Amazon plans, but the risks of
         | something like Kessler syndrome "trapping" us on earth from
         | Starlink are low.
         | 
         | The main reason is that the Starlink satellites fly in a very
         | low altitude, such that even if they lose all control, they
         | will deorbit in a few years. Which means, if something went
         | horrifically wrong, the Starlink system debris would clear
         | itself within a short period of time.
         | 
         | It looks like the Amazon Project Kuiper satellites will be
         | slightly higher up, but still have a natural orbital decay time
         | of between 5-7 years. https://spacenews.com/amazon-lays-out-
         | constellation-service-...
         | 
         | So, the long term risks from these kinds of low-orbit mega
         | constellations is fairly low. If anything goes catastrophically
         | wrong we wait a decade and it's gone.
         | 
         | I think personally, the longer term risks we should be wary of
         | are medium altitude and geostationary orbits that won't
         | naturally clear themselves for decades or centuries if
         | something goes wrong.
        
         | T-A wrote:
         | Suppose there were only 8000 cars in the world, evenly spread
         | all over it (I'm being generous here, since 2/3 of Earth is
         | covered by water). How likely would you be to ever see one?
        
           | kamkazemoose wrote:
           | The starlink satellites are traveling a little bit faster
           | than your average car though. They complete an orbit about
           | every 100 minutes. So your 8000 satalites are covering much
           | more ground than the same 8000 cars.
        
             | robbedpeter wrote:
             | At any given moment the distribution is similar, and we
             | track and regulate the orbits, leaving swathes of space
             | open. Everything about the satellites is engineered,
             | including their orbits. Other countries have less stringent
             | standards, resulting in more or less random de-orbits that
             | can drop space junk anywhere in their path, but the US has
             | a lot of forethought put into orbital standards.
             | 
             | Space junk is an issue, but it's not anywhere near crisis
             | level yet.
        
         | gorgoiler wrote:
         | Atmospheric drag brings down anything below 800km:
         | 
         | https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/About_space...
         | 
         | Starlink operates at 550km altitude:
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink#Launches
        
         | Rebelgecko wrote:
         | The planned Starlink constellation is actually quite a bit
         | bigger, but even if there's 20k satellites whizzing around it's
         | not a huge problem.
         | 
         | I think it's sometimes hard to reason about the vastness of
         | space, but imagine if the planet Earth had exactly 20,000 cars
         | on it's surface. Even if you crossed the street without
         | looking, your odds of getting hit by a car would be incredibly
         | low. And ofc in reality low earth orbit is bigger than the
         | surface of the earth AND we know where every obstacle is
         | located. If humanity ever gets to the point where we decide
         | it's too crowded, most of these constellations are low enough
         | that they'd naturally deorbit in less than a decade.
        
           | robbedpeter wrote:
           | Space is big. You just won't believe how vastly, hugely,
           | mind-bogglingly big it is. I mean, you may think it's a long
           | way down the road to the drug store, but that's just peanuts
           | to space. - Douglas Adams
        
         | runnerup wrote:
         | Probably not. Even 500,000 sattelites would still leave more
         | than enough space between them for whatever you want. The risk
         | would be if many of them blew up or something, creating
         | billions of tiny pieces of debris. In that scenario, we might
         | just wait 5 years and then most of the debris will have burned
         | up in the atmosphere.
         | 
         | SpaceX satellites are around 550km attitude. If someone puts
         | satellites higher than that, collision debris will last longer,
         | the satellites' fuel will last longer so the satellites won't
         | have to be replaced as often, but network latencies will be
         | higher. Seems like 500-600km is the optimal zone for the
         | primary constellations of internet satellites.
         | 
         | Video showing decay of debris vs. its altitude. The "X" shape
         | is because each debris is plotted twice, once at it's perigee
         | and again at its apogee (describing the ellipse of the orbit as
         | they generally are not perfectly circular)
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQT5aMa_7iI
         | 
         | Higher altitude satellites would be a bigger concern but these
         | aren't a big deal.
        
         | bagels wrote:
         | There are already approximately 250,000 objects in low earth
         | orbit 2cm and up. The risk from these constellations isn't from
         | the satellites themselves directly, but from Kessler syndrome
         | if they start getting smashed by untracked debris.
        
         | HideousKojima wrote:
         | Starlink is at low enough orbits that even if the entire
         | constellation spontaneously exploded all the debris would
         | deorbit within ~5 years
        
         | kiba wrote:
         | You quoted that Amazon planned to have 3,236 satellites.
         | 
         | Yet, SpaceX already launched 1730 satellites, 1630 of which are
         | active, with a planned constellation of 12,000 satellites.[1]
         | 
         | Amazon's Kuiper Systems hadn't even launched yet, and they're
         | going with ULA for their first launch, which AFAIK, is much
         | more expensive than SpaceX, with only 9 satellites as opposed
         | to 60 satellites at a time.[2]
         | 
         | [1] See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Starlink
         | 
         | [2] See https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kuiper_Systems
        
           | SEJeff wrote:
           | And if/when SpaceX finishes Starship plus Superheavy, SpaceX
           | will be launching up to 400 satellites per launch.
           | 
           | Also, they've submitted authorization for up to 42,000 total
           | starlink satellites: https://spacenews.com/spacex-submits-
           | paperwork-for-30000-mor...
        
           | tigershark wrote:
           | And they applied for permission to launch additional 30k
           | satellites, bringing the total to 42k. Amazon Kuiper is a toy
           | by comparison..
        
         | gamegoblin wrote:
         | On most days there are up to 20,000 airplanes (which are
         | 100-1000x larger than satellites) in the sky. And the
         | satellites, being at 100x higher altitude, are 100x more spread
         | out than the airplanes.
         | 
         | So just from a "unusable space" point of view, it's on the
         | order of 10000x less of a problem than airplanes. The caveats
         | here are the satellites are moving much, much faster than
         | airplanes, and they stay in the sky much, much longer.
         | 
         | But it's not really a huge problem unless stuff goes wrong and
         | you get Kessler Syndrome. This is more of a risk with the
         | higher constellations like Amazon's and OneWeb's than it is
         | with SpaceX Starlink (which is in a low enough orbit to de-
         | orbit all debris within a few years, rather than centuries).
        
           | kmonsen wrote:
           | But we know where all the planes are, and actively monitor
           | and move them around to avoid collisions. If there are a
           | sufficient large number of satellites would there not be some
           | risk of accidental collision with spacecraft taking off?
        
             | dehrmann wrote:
             | > But we know where all the planes are
             | 
             | We really don't. We mostly know for commercial flights, but
             | not so much for general aviation. What aviation does is
             | have zones around airports with restricted airspace that
             | _is_ well-controlled.
        
             | shkkmo wrote:
             | > But we know where all the planes are, and actively
             | monitor and move them around to avoid collisions.
             | 
             | This is also true for satellites.
        
             | EveYoung wrote:
             | A similar monitoring applies to satellites as well. We're
             | not launching spacecrafts and just hope that everything
             | goes well.
        
             | gvb wrote:
             | We know where all the satellites are and they are actively
             | tracked by both governments and private citizens.
             | 
             | Every satellite is in a very deterministic orbit which
             | requires energy to change (enormous amounts of energy for a
             | significant change) so they don't change their orbit
             | significantly nor often.
             | 
             | Ref: https://sos.noaa.gov/catalog/datasets/space-trash-and-
             | satell...
        
             | chrisseaton wrote:
             | > But we know where all the planes are, and actively
             | monitor and move them around to avoid collisions.
             | 
             | Do you think they don't know where their satellites are?
        
             | popz41 wrote:
             | NASA & the ESA actively monitors all satellites and
             | actually maintains a database of every little piece of
             | space debris they find (payload fairings, failed
             | satellites, etc). They determine the orbit and track it
             | until it falls back to earth.
        
             | haliskerbas wrote:
             | This is a fun site for tracking stuff in space:
             | 
             | http://stuffin.space/
        
           | jsnell wrote:
           | > And the satellites, being at 100x higher altitude, are 100x
           | more spread out than the airplanes.
           | 
           | This doesn't feel right. Shouldn't the right frame of
           | reference be the distance to the center of the earth, not the
           | sea level? Then it is not a 100x difference, but more like a
           | 10% one.
        
             | gamegoblin wrote:
             | If we were also launching from the center of the earth I
             | would agree, but as we are launching from sea level, I
             | think the general idea still holds.
             | 
             | Thought experiment:
             | 
             | You are standing in a field.
             | 
             | There is a 10x10 meter plate hovering 10 meters above you.
             | There is a 1 square meter target on it. You fire a gun
             | upwards at a random location on the plate. There is a 1 in
             | 100 probability you hit the target.
             | 
             | Now imagine there is a 20x20 meter plate hovering 20 meters
             | above you. It is perfectly occluded by the original 10x10
             | meter plate. It also has a 1 square meter target on it.
             | When you fire at a random location on the original plate,
             | the bullet passes through it and continues on to the higher
             | plate. What is the probability you hit the target on the
             | higher plate? I believe it is 1 in 400.
             | 
             | From this thought experiment it seems that altitude from
             | launch point is what counts.
        
               | jsnell wrote:
               | Now expand your thought experiment to 4 people, standing
               | in a 10 meter square from each other. They each have
               | their own 10x10 and 20x20 plates, and their own targets.
               | 
               | Clearly the 10x10 plates are lining up (modulo
               | curvature). But the 20x20 plates are not, they're
               | overlapping. So when I shoot through a random location of
               | my own 10x10 plate, there's a chance that I'll hit a
               | target from somebody else's 20x20 plate. Sum up those
               | additional chances, and they'll cancel out the 4x
               | difference you found.
               | 
               | This feels like it would make a nice puzzle, your
               | phrasing makes for a great misdirect / sleight of hand.
        
               | gamegoblin wrote:
               | I totally agree with you and the other commenters that
               | the total area of the spherical shell is only increasing
               | by a few %, but I still think for the purposes of
               | "escaping earth" as the top level comment was talking
               | about, all that matters is how spread out things are
               | directly above you.
               | 
               | When talking about the area of the spherical shells, it
               | conflates what is above me as equally relevant to things
               | that are on the other side of the planet from me.
               | 
               | That is, satellite X and Y may be over me at 500km and
               | 1000km distance, respectively. Later, they may be
               | directly through the earth from me at distance 13200km
               | and 13700km distance.
               | 
               | In the first case, if I shine a laser straight up, my
               | probability of hitting X is 4 times higher than my
               | probability of hitting Y.
               | 
               | In the second case, (if I could somehow shine a laser
               | straight through the earth), the probabilities are nearly
               | equal.
               | 
               | But my intuition is that for the purpose of escaping
               | earth, this second case does not matter, because we are
               | just dealing with what is above us, not the entire
               | spherical shell.
        
               | shkkmo wrote:
               | Except you can't generalize a square plate to a spherical
               | shell...
        
               | gamegoblin wrote:
               | Can you explain why?
               | 
               | If I am launching a rocket, and there is a 1x1 meter
               | satellite orbiting 1000km above me. What is the
               | probability that my rocket hits that satellite compared
               | to an identical satellite at 2000km above me? The area of
               | the angular sector of the sky that the 2000km altitude
               | satellite is 1/4 of the 1000km altitude satellite.
        
               | shkkmo wrote:
               | The orbital launch will follow a curved path through
               | succesive spherical shells. The percentage of the
               | spherical shell occupied by the 1000km satellite is not
               | 4x larger than the percentage of the spherical shell
               | occupied by the 2000km satellite.
        
               | only_as_i_fall wrote:
               | This is the wrong mental model entirely unless your
               | rocket launch is directly vertical and instantaneous.
        
               | froh wrote:
               | (10x10):(20x20) sounds like 1:4 to me, instead of 1:400,
               | no?
        
               | gamegoblin wrote:
               | It's not 1:400 -- it's 100:400 which is equal to the 1:4
               | you mention.
               | 
               | That is, you 2x the height of the target which results in
               | the probability of hitting being 4x less.
        
               | tgb wrote:
               | If your original claim were true, then you'd also be
               | saying that there is twice as much area at 2m above sea
               | level as there is 1m above sea level, and infinitely more
               | than at sea level. If you truly believe this, then I will
               | be willing to make you a trade where I give you one tenth
               | floor condo in exchange for 10 first floor condos.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | karatekidd32v wrote:
             | Agreed rough math there doesn't seem right. Also, I wonder
             | if there's an added benefit from the inverse square law
             | here: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inverse-square_law
        
             | montenegrohugo wrote:
             | Here's the actual correct math:
             | 
             | ---
             | 
             | Area of sphere: 4pr^2
             | 
             | Airplane cruising height: ~10km
             | 
             | Satellite orbit height: ~550km
             | 
             | Radius of earth: 6371km
             | 
             | thus, relative increase: (6371+550)/(6371+10) = 1.084 =
             | 8.4% increase
             | 
             | Squared (because of first formula) that corresponds with a
             | 1.084^2 = 1.175 = 17.5% increase in area.
             | 
             | ---
             | 
             | Still, a few caveats:
             | 
             | 1. Earth is huge. 510.1 million km2 is a lot of space (+20%
             | at 550km altitude). We could have a million sats with each
             | having more than 1km^2 to themselves.
             | 
             | 2. Satellites orbit at different heights. Amazon's and
             | SpaceX's satellites will not be on the same orbit.
             | 
             | 3. Starlink satellites are at a sufficiently low altitude
             | that Kessler Syndrom is not a problem; even if they all
             | simultaneously turned into millions of pieces of dead
             | debris at the same time, the atmospheric drag would make
             | them lower their orbits and burn up in just a few months.
        
           | agilob wrote:
           | Broken planes fall down, while satellites create space
           | debris.
        
             | dogorman wrote:
             | Dead sats in LEO fall.
        
           | Voloskaya wrote:
           | * Altitude is essentially the same 6300km vs 6700km, so
           | satellites aren't signficantly more spread out.
           | 
           | * Those 20k planes don't all fly at the same time.
           | 
           | * Retired / Broken planes don't fly, satellites may still be
           | on orbit for decades.
           | 
           | * There are no debris flying in the sky at 11000 km/h
           | 
           | * Planes can adjust their path at will instantly for
           | avoidance.
           | 
           | * Planes can be grounded instantly if we need to.
           | 
           | Orbital space is a limited resource that gets depleted very
           | fast and recovers very slowly. We are talking about launching
           | in the next ten years 5x the total number of satellites that
           | were ever launched so far. I am sure humans in 50 years would
           | still be able to launch a thing or two in space as well.
           | 
           | This is an actual problem, and unlike for planes, once the
           | problem is apparent, you can't just take some of them out of
           | the sky while you figure out a solution.
        
             | gamegoblin wrote:
             | > Those 20k planes don't all fly at the same time.
             | 
             | They absolutely do. Check out
             | https://www.flightradar24.com, there are currently 15,673
             | planes in the air worldwide at the moment I am typing this
             | comment.
        
               | Voloskaya wrote:
               | Fair point, but does that really change the conclusion?
        
           | staticassertion wrote:
           | But we can ground airplanes in a matter of hours. It doesn't
           | really feel comparable.
        
           | tgb wrote:
           | They're at 100x higher altitude relative to the sea level but
           | nearly the same altitude relative to the Earth's center which
           | is what matters here.
        
         | johannes1234321 wrote:
         | There are two probable problems:
         | 
         | a) debris damaging other satellites or space stations. There
         | currently is no proper liability currently and different
         | monitoring systems are still in development
         | 
         | b) astronomy from earth will see problems.
         | 
         | As long as they are on their orbits there is enough space
         | (haha) and if they don't cause conflict with radio frequencies
         | they also don't cause issues
        
         | gpm wrote:
         | What you're asking about is basically
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome
         | 
         | In general the question of collision risk and debris is
         | something evaluated for every launch/constellation. Starlink,
         | for example, mostly avoids it being an issue by flying so low
         | that debris quickly falls to earth and burns up in the
         | atmosphere (they also design their satellites to fully burn up
         | in the atmosphere). On the flip sides Starlink is planning on
         | an order of magnitude more satellites than this.
         | 
         | Even the worst case though doesn't really impact humans ability
         | to fly to the moon/mars. You can make low earth orbit
         | relatively unusable because there is a high collision risk if
         | you hang out there for a year, but you should basically always
         | be able to fly through low earth orbit to a higher orbit with
         | negligible collision risk.
        
         | bjacobt wrote:
         | pardon the dumb question - how do rockets from spacex, etc
         | avoid crashing into a satellite on its way up? Is there a way
         | to keep track of all the satellites and debris in space and
         | time the launch so there is a clear path?
        
           | bagels wrote:
           | Short answer: yes.
           | 
           | They do this thing called "COLA", Collision On Launch
           | Assessment, an analysis of launch trajectory to ensure they
           | it won't hit known objects.
        
           | sgtnoodle wrote:
           | Yes, there is a database and radar tracking stations, and
           | they'll avoid launching if there's an increased chance of a
           | collision. The density of satellites and debris in orbit is
           | so low in absolute terms, though, that the probability of any
           | given rocket colliding is negligible even if launching
           | totally blindly.
           | 
           | Most launches are timed for minimizing fuel to achieve the
           | desired orbit, and there's only a few seconds of wiggle room
           | for a launch window. So, a particular launch window may be
           | preferred over another depending on the relative probability
           | of a collision. Nobody is explicitly timing their launches or
           | ascent profile with regard to other satellites other than for
           | space stations and other explicit destinations. Most launches
           | the rocket just gets the satellites up into roughly the right
           | orbit, and then the satellites use their own propulsion
           | systems to maneuver into precise orbits over several months.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | SEJeff wrote:
         | No. This wouldn't happen as space is much bigger and there are
         | far more airplanes today in the sky than satellites with a
         | higher more distant apart orbit.
         | 
         | These low earth orbit constellations will naturally experience
         | orbital decay and at the end of their useful life will simply
         | burn up on re-entry. They're explicitly designed to prevent
         | Kessler Syndrome:
         | 
         | See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kessler_syndrome
        
       | sayem38 wrote:
       | Amazon has significantly ramped up hiring efforts for Project
       | Kuiper at its Redmond headquarters, with 500 employees currently
       | aboard and 200 open positions
        
       | highfrequency wrote:
       | Are these global internet initiatives targeting _faster_ internet
       | (10+ Gbps) or just more accessible internet for poor regions?
        
         | deelowe wrote:
         | I believe it's both, but mostly accessibility. Access to
         | internet is seen as limitation on growth for the large
         | companies. Bandwith is certainly factor though when considering
         | AMZN's media empire.
        
         | mdasen wrote:
         | It's very unlikely to be faster internet (compared to what is
         | generally available in urban/suburban America).
         | 
         | Ultimately, we're using radio similar to any 4G or 5G
         | connection. There are some differences, but they probably work
         | against satellite internet more than they work for it.
         | Terrestrial wireless networks like Verizon or T-Mobile can
         | easily split cells to get more capacity (install another tower
         | and split traffic between them). It's harder to do that with
         | satellites. Plus the satellites will be over ocean so much of
         | the time when their capacity can't be used (and other
         | satellites in the network will take that traffic). You do get
         | better line-of-sight which is helpful, but the amount of
         | capacity is somewhat limited. Elon Musk has even said that
         | they'll "most likely" be able to serve 500,000 customers. "More
         | of a challenge when we get into the several million user
         | range."
         | 
         | These are unlikely to be services that offer a faster internet
         | completion for people who are already well-served. Of course,
         | there are a lot of people who aren't well-served.
         | 
         | Over the coming years, 5G home internet is going to become more
         | common. T-Mobile is looking to sign up 7-8M customers which
         | would make them the 4th largest home broadband provider.
         | Verizon has announced that they want to cover 50M households
         | for home internet by the end of 2024 (T-Mobile already offers
         | home internet coverage to 30M households; also, remember that
         | while there are 330M people in the US, there's only around 130M
         | households). While 5G won't reach everywhere that satellite
         | will, it will fill in some of the broadband gaps that we
         | currently have. 5G will also offer an alternative to wired home
         | internet in many areas.
         | 
         | https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/02/isps-step-up-fig...
         | 
         | A lot of the interest in satellite broadband is driven by
         | government money. The US government is offering $9.2B to expand
         | access to 5.2M home/businesses in this one instance and there's
         | a lot more money where that came from. The Universal Service
         | Fund in the US shells out billions every year to companies
         | providing rural connectivity. It might not even be that there's
         | much interest in these programs beyond government subsidies. Of
         | course, once the satellites are traveling over other areas,
         | might as well make the service available and get some extra
         | money.
         | 
         | Musk has said that Starlink might require a $30B investment to
         | be viable, but might become cash-flow positive after $5-10B.
         | $5-10B is probably well within the realm of government subsidy
         | in the US. I mean, the government will definitely be spending
         | much more than that subsidizing rural broadband over the coming
         | years, but whether Starlink/SpaceX will get that money remains
         | to be seen.
         | 
         | I wouldn't say this is just about poor regions. There are
         | plenty of far-flung places that I wouldn't classify as "poor"
         | that don't have great internet.
        
         | agildehaus wrote:
         | Faster than what, fiber? DOCSIS 3.0? No.
         | 
         | 10x faster than anything that has ever been available in many
         | regions of the globe that currently have some form of limited
         | access? Yes.
         | 
         | And then of course this Internet being available absolutely
         | everywhere on Earth.
        
         | rejectedandsad wrote:
         | I think an underrated part of this is applications for merchant
         | ships and edge compute in LEO (though I don't think Amazon has
         | discussed this explicitly). The enterprise use cases could be
         | interesting.
        
         | matmatmatmat wrote:
         | It varies from constellation to constellation.
         | 
         | O3B's MPower constellation promises 10 Gbps terminals, but
         | those terminals are very likely to go to big enterprise
         | customers, as they will cost several $10k's.
         | 
         | Telesat's Lightspeed constellation is aimed at rural areas of
         | Canada and 5G backhaul. To do the latter, they'll have to
         | deliver at least 1 Gbps. Telesat's been in the game for a long
         | time, so I wouldn't doubt that they'll deliver.
         | 
         | There's two Chinese constellations going up. They'll probably
         | deliver anything and everything they can, but it remains to be
         | seen what the satellite and terminal capacities will be. The
         | west still has an edge here.
         | 
         | Starlink started with residential service but they'll try to
         | expand into everything they can. One of applications I expect
         | to see is to use Starlink to get data out of Teslas and back to
         | the ML team so they can improve their self-driving code.
         | 
         | Kuiper? I mean, who knows. It's Amazon, so, they'll probably
         | also try to expand into everything they can. I wouldn't be
         | surprised if their delivery trucks will use it as backhaul.
         | 
         | You might notice that none of the above, so far, are actually
         | aimed at connecting the unconnected. That's because the
         | terminals, so far, are too expensive and too power-hungry. The
         | only two initiative I'm aware of that are actually trying to
         | connect the unconnected are:
         | 
         | OneWeb, which has truly global coverage (including the poles)
         | and has a quite smart design, including working crosslinks and
         | a relatively affordable terminal. Also, in the arctic, they can
         | provide connectivity to militaries, so there's some good
         | cashflow there.
         | 
         | Curvanet, an initiative by Tom Choi. They promise a sub $100
         | terminal that can run on 5 W (!) and does not require an ESA
         | but can still deliver up to 50 Mbps. If they can actually pull
         | this off I will buy a unit and stick on my roof just for fun.
         | Also, if they succeed, they would be absolutely best-positioned
         | in the market, as no one can (so far) match their cost or power
         | consumption.
        
       | IG_Semmelweiss wrote:
       | we are in the new age of consolidation.
       | 
       | Just like the combustion engine development created the
       | transportation and assembly revolution some ~60 years after,
       | profits from the newly created peripheral markets led to massive
       | profits in specific tech sectors (oil, steel)... Flush with cash,
       | they started horizontal, vertical acquisitions, leading to the
       | massive corps of the time (1950s).
       | 
       | We now have the internet. We are roughly almost 60 years into the
       | internet creation revolution cycle.
       | 
       | We have seen how this movie plays out.
        
       | h2odragon wrote:
       | Was it ever a serious effort; or was it an excuse to get the FCC
       | to hinder similar projects?
        
         | Mxs2000 wrote:
         | From Facebook's POV? Very serious.
         | 
         | Edit: For added context, I worked on this along with several
         | other FB Connectivity projects.
        
           | matmatmatmat wrote:
           | That's interesting, can you share anything about why we never
           | really seemed to see much of this team's work?
        
             | tguvot wrote:
             | as somebody who worked in this org: they are mostly focused
             | on research, enablement and getting new tech used by
             | operators of different sizes. Low level network tech is not
             | sexy and doesn't really makes news
        
         | mcintyre1994 wrote:
         | I guess they must have something if Amazon are buying it
         | instead of it just being abandoned by Facebook.
        
         | toast0 wrote:
         | Disclosure: I worked at FB, but not on connectivity projects,
         | although I was adjacent to internet.org.
         | 
         | As far as I could tell, these were serious efforts, but it's
         | important to understand the organizational goals. Facebook
         | benefits from increased connectivity regardless of who operates
         | the network (as long as it's not actively hostile to FB,
         | anyway). So there was a focus on research and publication
         | rather than build-out. If FB can find a viable improvement in
         | networks, and convince networks to use it, that increases
         | connectivity which is good for FB. Additionaly, if network
         | providers use FB developed technology in their networks, it
         | might improve relations with those networks, which are
         | sometimes strained because of competition in the messaging
         | space.
         | 
         | In my mind, this is the same as Google Fiber. Google Fiber was
         | a terrible business for Google, but as a result of announcing
         | their plans to build out in specific cities, the incumbent
         | networks built out high speed fiber in most (or all) of those
         | cities and maybe a few other places, which increases
         | penetration of high speed connectivity, which is good for
         | Google as a whole, so it's still a win.
        
           | h2odragon wrote:
           | "A rising tide lifts all boats" sounds like a pretty good
           | reason to me. Thanks very much for illuminating more of the
           | details.
        
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