[HN Gopher] Northwest heat wave was statistically "impossible"
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       Northwest heat wave was statistically "impossible"
        
       Author : hardtke
       Score  : 9 points
       Date   : 2021-07-08 21:02 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (twitter.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (twitter.com)
        
       | ewzimm wrote:
       | This seems to imply that in the near future our weather models
       | will become useless, but we won't know when it has happened.
       | Rohde's Uncertainty Principle.
        
         | reilly3000 wrote:
         | There is a broader pattern showing that generally most
         | forecasts and predictive models are utterly useless or
         | detrimental in the case of actual novelty. Look at just-in-time
         | supply chains during the pandemic: in many sectors the system
         | grinded to a halt. First, the run on toilet paper, then meat
         | products, then wood (and many more). Did refrigerant suppliers
         | know that the heat dome would cause millions of PNW denizens
         | realize that AC is now an essential?
         | 
         | Most AI is trained on historical data. Adoption of such tools
         | is going to need to rely further on wild simulation and
         | adversarial networks if they are to be effective in the highly
         | dynamic world we have entered into.
        
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       (page generated 2021-07-08 23:02 UTC)