[HN Gopher] A Roadmap to Interstellar Flight (2016)
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       A Roadmap to Interstellar Flight (2016)
        
       Author : ra7
       Score  : 139 points
       Date   : 2021-07-08 16:25 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (arxiv.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (arxiv.org)
        
       | cletus wrote:
       | Wow, that's a really comprehensive, deep and dense collection of
       | information.
       | 
       | For anyone really interested in the science of this who doesn't
       | necessarily want to digest the raw math, I highly suggest Isaac
       | Arthur's Youtube channel eg [1][2].
       | 
       | People tend to fall into a number of traps when dipping their
       | toes into this topic.
       | 
       | The first one is the trap of wishful thinking, which is the
       | primary reason for pretty much any attempt to come up with a
       | theory for FTL. Most of these people just don't understand what
       | the domain of a function is. Just because you can plug a negative
       | number into an equation that is otherwise over real numbers
       | doesn't mean that makes sense or is valid.
       | 
       | Second, people oversimplify. I see on this thread and others
       | claims like "if we just accelerate at 1G we can get pretty much
       | anywhere relatively quickly". So that's true superficially but
       | the energy requirements for that are so vast even if you have
       | perfect mass to energy conversion that a significant percentage
       | of your ship's mass is fuel.
       | 
       | To me, laser highways seem like the most likely form of far
       | future interstellar travel. That's largely predicated on
       | commercially viable fusion power however and that's not a given.
       | 
       | Failing that, you're talking about variations of what are
       | essentially generational ships.
       | 
       | [1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wXiitWK_6Qg
       | 
       | [2]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s6BQSgidbmc&t=1526s
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | nerpderp82 wrote:
       | I love the idea of the wafersats
       | 
       | > Thus a 1 kg spacecraft going at 0.3 c will have an effective
       | "yield" of 1 MT or roughly that of a large strategic
       | thermonuclear weapon.
       | 
       | Lets not accidentally wipe out a neighbors city and start an
       | interstellar war.
        
         | iso1210 wrote:
         | A tungsten rod placed in an eliptical polar orbit can be
         | pointed to any point on earth fired without anyone detecting
         | it, and have total plausible deniability when wiping a city off
         | a planet.
         | 
         | We're far more likely to have destroyed ourselves long before
         | we get a chance to destroy any other civilisation. If we can
         | travel intersteller, we can destroy a planet.
         | 
         | Your quote does remind me of a line from Independence Day I
         | like
         | 
         | "Los Angelinos are asked not to fire their guns at the visiting
         | spacecraft, you may inadvertently start an intersteller war"
        
           | htrp wrote:
           | Any fractional-c attack will be either impossible to detect,
           | or impossible to prevent....
        
       | paparush wrote:
       | obiligatory https://www.intelligentliving.co/amp/speed-light-
       | slow/
        
       | EricE wrote:
       | The exoplanet mission from Civilization 6 in real life - what a
       | fascinating read!
        
       | JoeDaDude wrote:
       | A lot of this sounds like the Breakthrough Starshot initiative
       | ideas. I could not find out if the author affiliated with said
       | initiative.
       | 
       | https://breakthroughinitiatives.org/initiative/3
        
         | JoeDaDude wrote:
         | Let me correct myself. Phil Lubin (the author) is on the
         | Starshot Advisory Committee. He is so listed in the Bidder
         | Briefing slides for the Starshot Sail RFP.
        
       | cecilpl wrote:
       | To be honest this is one of the more real proposals I've seen for
       | an Interstellar probe, and there are still many problems to be
       | worked out as both the paper and the comments here point out.
       | 
       | I admire the optimism in the paper though, even if its misplaced.
       | Maybe pooling together resources in the scientific and
       | engineering communities to develop an interstellar probe system
       | could give a working result, but there are some significant
       | hurdles to overcome first. It would be a big project, taking many
       | years to see fruition, but at the same time it could also be a
       | game-changing development and a hugely inspiring feat.
       | 
       | Could we see probes in other star systems by 2075? I think its
       | not an unreasonable suggestion.
        
         | Robotbeat wrote:
         | Interstellar flight is an insane challenge. It's one of the
         | hardest things humankind can attempt yet still not beyond the
         | laws of physics. That means you have to approach things from
         | first principles and often have to invert the problem ("assume
         | we manage interstellar flight by 2075. How did we do it?",
         | etc). It's intellectually seductive in the best way.
         | 
         | I think it's good to attempt such challenges, even if just
         | conceptually, as it makes lots of other things seem a lot more
         | achievable in contrast, sometimes almost laughably so.
        
           | ryandrake wrote:
           | I've always thought interstellar probes were kind of
           | pointless. Even if the probe could average 10% of the speed
           | of light, the amount of time it would take for a probe to
           | reach its destination (all but the closest stars) and then
           | for data to return at the speed of light is greater than the
           | lifetime of anyone who wants to study. You'd have to send out
           | the probe, hoping that your grandchildren wait around for the
           | response.
           | 
           | Interstellar space exploration will likely be manned-only. As
           | other threads point out, with sufficient acceleration, due to
           | time dilation, humans can reach distant stars within their
           | own lifetimes (at the expense of thousands of years passing
           | on Earth).
        
             | sdwr wrote:
             | Doesn't look so bad once a program is established. It's
             | like aging cheese - get one batch started while another is
             | finishing up. The turnover time is just 50 years instead of
             | 2.
        
             | nickik wrote:
             | I disagree. It the same principle as sending something to
             | the outer solar system. Many of the scientist who propose
             | those things and work on the instruments and so on have
             | long left the field by the time the missions arrive and
             | many will soon after. Before the mission ends, a whole new
             | group of people are working on it.
             | 
             | This is the same idea, you send a new an improved probe
             | every 10-20 years and eventually you get data back and over
             | time you have constant data stream from all kinds of
             | different places.
        
             | xyzzy123 wrote:
             | Humans have planned and executed multi-generational
             | projects before, even if that scale of project seems out of
             | fashion right now.
             | 
             | This article (Starships & Cathedrals) explains the ideas
             | better than I can in a short comment: https://www.centauri-
             | dreams.org/2020/07/17/the-cathedral-and...
        
             | WJW wrote:
             | > You'd have to send out the probe, hoping that your
             | grandchildren wait around for the response.
             | 
             | Why would our grandchildren be less interested in
             | interstellar exploration than we are? We need ways to
             | organize (parts of) society for the long term, that seems
             | way easier than inventing magical "accelerate at 1g for a
             | decade" tech.
        
             | Robotbeat wrote:
             | Disagree. At 0.1c, it takes 42 years to reach Proxima
             | Centauri (and 4 more years to get data back). The Voyager 1
             | and 2 probes are still operating and transmitting
             | scientific data that people are interested in (the missions
             | are still funded) and were launched 44 years ago and are
             | likely to continue a few more years. So we have existence
             | proof that people would still be interested in it over that
             | kind of timeline.
             | 
             | And I know you excluded the "closest stars," but I don't
             | understand why, except that it undermines your point. There
             | are at least 3 nearby stars that could be reached by probes
             | in a researcher's (or at least their funding institution's)
             | lifetime vs just our one star system.
             | 
             | (Besides the 3 stars in the Proxima/Alpha Centauri system
             | there are also at least 11 additional stars--including
             | fusion-capable brown dwarfs--within 10 light years of the
             | Sun.)
        
       | jcurbo wrote:
       | Related: https://hub.jhu.edu/magazine/2021/spring/apl-
       | interstellar-pr...
       | 
       | (Disclaimer, I work at APL, but not on this)
        
       | davedx wrote:
       | Little toy tool I made to sim out various known propulsion
       | systems for a crewed interstellar mission:
       | https://redskyforge.com/interstellar/
       | 
       | Only nuclear is really interesting. Chemical rockets are useless
       | at this scale.
        
         | Robotbeat wrote:
         | Beamed propulsion of some sort (not necessarily using lasers)
         | relying primarily on solar energy is the best option. Nuclear
         | is useful for ancillary propulsion. Chemical not useful except
         | for launching all the stuff around the solar system to build
         | such a system.
        
           | pault wrote:
           | But how do you stop?
        
             | Robotbeat wrote:
             | Braking against the interstellar medium (and possibly the
             | stellar wind as you get closer) using magnetosail-like
             | devices... between the stars isn't completely empty but has
             | a diffuse plasma that can be pushed against magnetically or
             | electrostatically. This is how you'd slow down in pretty
             | much any scenario as it is "propellantless." It's a big
             | challenge to get the superconducting coils light enough,
             | but it is a critical piece to interstellar flight,
             | particularly if crewed.
        
               | davedx wrote:
               | I actually ran numbers on electrosails to decelerate,
               | they do not work, at all - many orders of magnitude.
               | Email me for spreadsheet. Pulsed nuclear propulsion is
               | the only tech we have that works
        
               | Robotbeat wrote:
               | Electrosails aren't as good for this as magnetosails; I
               | just included electrosails for completeness.
        
             | AnimalMuppet wrote:
             | Well... I like the beamed energy idea. It works to get you
             | out of the solar system. But how do you continue to
             | accelerate from other stars? You fire ahead of you a
             | construction kit for a solar-powered beam-generating
             | station. That beam station can be used either for
             | acceleration or for braking.
             | 
             | But how do you get the _kit_ to decelerate? (Remember, you
             | fired it ahead of the ship.) And this problem gets worse as
             | the velocity of the ship goes up. If, say, your
             | construction kit enters a solar system at 0.1 c, it 's
             | going to cross it in maybe twenty days. I don't think
             | that's enough time for a solar sail to effectively
             | decelerate it. It's probably going too fast for using
             | planets' gravity to slow it down. And using atmospheric
             | drag is an explosively bad idea.
             | 
             | I don't have an answer...
        
               | htrp wrote:
               | Your braking laser kit is fired out 1000 years ago....
               | and you hope it makes it there on time
        
       | andyxor wrote:
       | Unless we embrace nuclear energy for space flight this would
       | never happen.
       | 
       | Looks like NASA is developing thermal nuclear rocket
       | https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/nuclear-propulsi...
        
         | ncmncm wrote:
         | Thermal fusion rockets, meanwhile, languish. The Princeton
         | group got some money, but under current plans cannot hope to
         | fly a test vehicle before 2035. Yet another victim of the
         | Tokamak mirage.
         | 
         | Field-reversed configuration, D-H3, aneutronic.
        
       | m34 wrote:
       | Propulsion aside, I really wonder what the human species turns
       | out to be like in say a couple of hundred years.
       | 
       | Hopefully our solar system isn't the only place where human DNA
       | is found; that said, I'm curious what'll be left of humans as we
       | know today.
       | 
       | With tools like CRISPR accelerating adoption to new environments
       | and increased resilience towards hostile situations (zero-g,
       | radiation etc)
        
       | hughw wrote:
       | Getting there is "easy". But if the wafer is speeding at _c_ /4
       | past the exoplanet, it will not be able to take any measurements.
       | 
       |  _4.2 Braking to Enter Orbit on Arrival - A very difficult
       | challenge is to slow the spacecraft to typical planetary orbital
       | speeds to enable orbital capture once arriving. This task is
       | difficult as the initial entry speeds are so high (~ c) and the
       | orbital speeds are so low (~ 10-4 c). Dissipating this much
       | energy is challenging. We have considered using the stars photon
       | pressure, the stellar wind (assuming it is like our own solar
       | system), using the magnetic coupling to the exo solar system
       | plasma. None of these techniques appears to be obviously able to
       | accomplish this task and much more work and simulation is needed.
       | A simple fly-by mission is clearly the first type of mission to
       | explore in any case to assess the environment in a given system
       | to design (if possible) an optimized braking strategy._
        
       | lmilcin wrote:
       | I think the best chance for large projects is a fleet of drone
       | factories that can replicate themselves and extract resources
       | from asteroids. Millions of tonnes of fuel and other resources
       | may not be a huge problem if you factor geometric growth of
       | population of drones.
        
       | ziotom78 wrote:
       | The big problem with near-light speed travel like the one
       | suggested by Lubin is the potentially fatal interaction of the
       | spacecraft with interstellar dust. Even considering their faint
       | density, the long journey would make the spacecraft interact with
       | far too many high-speed dust particles, which would likely cause
       | significant damage.
       | 
       | I do not know if somebody devised a solution to this fundamental
       | problem; if not, I am extremely skeptical about highly-
       | accelerated spacecrafts.
        
         | MR4D wrote:
         | People really don't get this, unfortunately.
         | 
         | I always think that if f=ma, then as velocity approaches light
         | speed, the deceleration of the grain of sand as it hits the
         | hull approaches infinity. So even with a small mass, the force
         | is huge.
        
       | Johnny555 wrote:
       | If we could solve the energy problem, humans could go pretty much
       | anywhere in the galaxy on a 1G ship. (ok there are other issues
       | like actually building the ship, supplies (or a biosphere that
       | can support life for decades), shielding, but that's all easier
       | with unlimited energy).
       | 
       | For example, a ship could travel 1,000 light years to the Orion
       | Nebula in only 15 years (as perceived by those on the ship). And
       | since they are living in 1G, a lot of the detrimental effects of
       | long-term space travel are eliminated.
       | 
       | Of course, to an observer on earth the trip would take over 1000
       | years, so don't expect to hear how the trip went.
        
         | jonplackett wrote:
         | How much energy would that be for that trip, for a reasonably
         | sized space ship to take care of a crew for that long?
         | 
         | Are we talking miniature fusion drive or antimatter type energy
         | density required?
        
           | Johnny555 wrote:
           | I haven't done the calculations (which would be hard to do
           | without knowing how big/heavy the ship needs to be), but I'd
           | assume it's going to need something well beyond our current
           | technology.
           | 
           | An aircraft carrier is powered through the water
           | (horizontally, of course) for 25 years on nuclear power.
           | 
           | Now imagine the power it would take to make it hover for 25
           | years, and that's your 1G ship.
        
             | NortySpock wrote:
             | You could do the "spinning drum" kind of 1G gravity, and
             | save fuel that way.
        
               | rootusrootus wrote:
               | You still need something like the 1G acceleration,
               | though, for the travel part. If you want it to happen
               | within a single human lifespan.
        
               | Johnny555 wrote:
               | Without the 1G of acceleration, you're limiting how far
               | you can go in a single generation. At 0.1g, that 1000
               | light year trip would take 90 years (to those on the
               | ship). The beauty of 1G is that it provides normal
               | gravity _and_ you can go great distances in a human
               | lifespan. Of course a 2G trip will get you there in half
               | the time, but it 's harder for humans to live at 2G.
               | 
               | Though maybe the time to the destination is not a problem
               | if you don't mind a generational ship where generations
               | of humans live (and die) on the journey. It doesn't
               | matter to those on earth, since the trip will still take
               | over 1000 years in their timeframe, so whether it's 1015
               | years, 1100 years or 2000 years probably doesn't really
               | matter to them.
        
               | ClumsyPilot wrote:
               | "The beauty of 1G is that it provides normal gravity and
               | you can go great distances in a human lifespan."
               | 
               | It like unicorns - beatifull and entirely fancifull.
               | Fusion or fission cant do it, even a ship with pure
               | antimatter drive cannot accelerate like that for decades
               | 
               | We will have hibernation before we have practical
               | antimatter, and lets you travel intersteller without
               | wasting enegy
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | > even a ship with pure antimatter drive cannot
               | accelerate like that for decades
               | 
               | Sure it can. You just need a decently-sized asteroid and
               | an equally-sized antimatter asteroid for fuel, and you
               | can do it for decades, even with the price you pay early
               | to accelerate the fuel you will use later.
        
               | iso1210 wrote:
               | If you could somehow accelerate at 1G indefinitely you
               | can get anywhere in the universe in a human lifespan.
               | 
               | Of course to accelerate a 1000 ton spaceship you'd need
               | about 4 quadrillion tons of fuel.
        
               | gorgoiler wrote:
               | The 1G in this case is the acceleration towards your
               | target star system at 10m/s^2 until you are half way,
               | then decelerating at the same rate until you arrive.
               | 
               | The fact that this _also_ produces liveable conditions is
               | just a nice side effect of a 1G ship.
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | But does that get you to the Orion Nebula in 15 years? Or
               | do you have to accelerate all the way to do that? (And
               | then you get to wave briefly at the Nebula as it goes
               | cruising by at a significant fraction of the speed of
               | light?)
        
               | numpad0 wrote:
               | Subjectively in decades due to relativity by constantly
               | accelerating, objectively in a millennia or worse. Wonder
               | how to get around interstellar obstacles though, changing
               | courses would be plain impossible
        
               | Johnny555 wrote:
               | Large interstellar objects are, well, large, so you can
               | see them well in advance and just steer around them.
               | 
               |  _changing courses would be plain impossible_
               | 
               | You can steer by vectoring your acceleration. It would
               | take about 3 days for a 1G ship to travel from the Earth
               | to the Sun, so it wouldn't add much time to the journey
               | to steer around an object the size of the sun. Ideally
               | you'd identify those objects so far in advance that it
               | would take little course correction to go around them.
               | 
               | Smaller objects like asteroids that are too small to see
               | in time to avoid would need to be absorbed by the
               | shielding or destroyed or pushed away by some other
               | method. At near relativistic speeds, this would obviously
               | be a non-trivial problem to solve, but hey, you have
               | unlimited energy to solve it.
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | But the faster you go, the more the galaxy is Lorentz
               | contracted from your frame of reference, and therefore
               | the denser the stars are, so dodging gets harder. Also,
               | they're coming at you faster, so you have less time to
               | dodge.
        
               | WJW wrote:
               | > and therefore the denser the stars are, so dodging gets
               | harder.
               | 
               | Not sure this is true, since the stars also get "smaller"
               | and therefore harder to hit. Also, while you have less
               | time to dodge you also don't have to dodge "as much"
               | since your vast speed means you move through any zone
               | quite quickly and therefore don't have much time to heat
               | up/get irradiated. You can probably pass by a star
               | relatively closely as long as you are moving fast enough.
               | (From a heat/radiation perspective, solar wind particles
               | might still mess you up good)
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | The stars only get smaller in the direction you're
               | traveling. Perpendicular to that (that is, in the
               | direction you have to dodge), they don't change no matter
               | what your velocity is.
        
               | mike_hock wrote:
               | But is hitting a star (or a planet) head on a realistic
               | risk?
        
               | gorgoiler wrote:
               | Relativity means that by the time your space kids are on
               | to the second generation of space labrador, you'll be
               | there.
               | 
               | To a static observer, 1000 generations of labrador will
               | have been bred back on Earth.
        
               | Johnny555 wrote:
               | _Or do you have to accelerate all the way to do that_
               | 
               | That's what "1G" means in this concept, you're always
               | accelerating at 1G (9.8 m/sec^2)
               | 
               | On the first half of the trip you're accelerating toward
               | the destination, on the second half, you're decelerating
               | at 1G.
               | 
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_travel_using_constant
               | _ac...
        
               | AnimalMuppet wrote:
               | The graphic in that article is what I wanted.
               | 
               | My point was that, due to the highly non-linear time
               | cost, it takes much less time to travel from Earth to X
               | if you accelerate the whole way, rather than accelerate
               | half the way and decelerate the other half. I wanted to
               | know which way gorgoiler used to compute the subjective
               | time.
               | 
               | And, thanks to your link, now I know.
        
           | jandrese wrote:
           | If the rocket equation still applies (if a practical
           | reactionless drive has not been invented), then you're
           | talking about mass-of-the-galaxy size spaceships to
           | accelerate at 1G for years on end.
        
             | whatshisface wrote:
             | The linked paper describes a laser propulsion system by
             | means of which no reaction mass need be stored on the
             | spacecraft whatsoever.
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | Which is impractical because you don't have a way to slow
               | down at the end. Their big plan was to accelerate a
               | camera up to 1/4c and have it snap pictures as it whizzes
               | past the solar system.
               | 
               | It's also far less than 1G acceleration. You don't get
               | big acceleration figures like 1G from laser pumped solar
               | sails.
        
         | nerpderp82 wrote:
         | If you take your whole civilization with you, it doesn't matter
         | how fast or slow you go, you are already where you need to be.
        
           | coderintherye wrote:
           | Civilization is a believed concept. Physically taking all of
           | your people with you does not equate to maintaining
           | civilization.
        
             | ryandrake wrote:
             | This thread is reminding me of one of my favorite Clarke
             | books, which partially explores this theme: The Songs of
             | Distant Earth [1]. Is there such thing as a singular human
             | civilization, once it become split by great distances and
             | millennia?
             | 
             | 1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Songs_of_Distant_Earth
        
               | rbanffy wrote:
               | It's an excellent book. Mike Oldfield made an excellent
               | soundtrack for it, and Clarke wrote the insert for the
               | disk.
        
               | nerpderp82 wrote:
               | Humanity will diverge as soon as we have off Earth
               | reproduction.
        
           | robotresearcher wrote:
           | We are there right now, zipping through space together.
           | 
           | We have some social problems and some HVAC problems. But the
           | vehicle is already underway.
        
             | nerpderp82 wrote:
             | You might enjoy this video on terraforming Venus,
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-WO-z-QuWI
             | 
             | I think we should consider the whole solar system our
             | galactic ship while making sure to keep the current
             | habitation quarters in top notch shape.
        
         | ben_w wrote:
         | Energy is the biggest problem, but it's far from the only one.
         | 
         | Consider the ISM: at 0.086 c, ionised helium is the same thing
         | as 14 MeV alpha radiation. Low density regions within the
         | galaxy are 0.2-0.5 particles/cm^3; 0.2/cm^3 * 0.086 c is ~5e12
         | particles/m^2/second, or about 9.9 watts/m^2 if it was all He4
         | and therefore 14MeV/particle or about 2.5 W/m^2 for Hydrogen at
         | the same speeds, which is bad enough given what keeping that up
         | for years will do to any solid hull, but molecular clouds can
         | be 10^2-10^6 particles/cm^3 and the upper bounds of that is ~10
         | MW/m^2.
         | 
         | Even without Relativity (which makes it worse), if you double
         | the speed the kinetic energy per particle quadruples _and_ you
         | also double the number of particles per unit time.
        
           | trhway wrote:
           | ionized particle moving in your frame can be recovered as
           | energy while the particle itself can be used as reaction mass
           | (He) or even as fusion fuel (H).
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | First, you have to ionize it all.
        
               | trhway wrote:
               | required ionization energy is dwarfed by the particle
               | kinetic energy to be collected which is in MeV.
        
         | generalizations wrote:
         | Which, to me, is why we should be focusing on new ways to
         | produce energy. Solar and wind is nice, but we could
         | revolutionize humanity and save the earth if we found a way to
         | build cheap energy sources with a density of gigawatts per
         | cubic yard.
         | 
         | What better way to save the earth and solve the population
         | problem than to have the energy production capabilities to
         | simply build e.g. ringworlds? Even that's not out of the realm
         | of possibility with that kind of energy available.
        
           | nickik wrote:
           | WE already did that. Its called nuclear power. Fission energy
           | can do almost everything fusion can do. The difference in
           | energy density between fission and fusion is not that large
           | compared to the energy sources we have.
           | 
           | With all the investment in solar and wind we could easily
           | have built a fission based economy. The French proved that in
           | the 70/80s and had a green grid ever since.
           | 
           | Had we done that collectively global warming would be a far
           | lesser issue.
           | 
           | It would also help us understand neutronics and material
           | science so we can eventually switch to fusion.
           | 
           | The same basic technology could also be used for space travel
           | in the solar system and would have advanced space travel by a
           | lot.
           | 
           | But of course for idiotic reasons society went away from
           | that.
        
             | ncmncm wrote:
             | Idiotic reasons such as that nuke always turned out, on
             | examination, to cost much more than alternatives.
             | 
             | Much of that high cost is often wholly-legal corruption
             | that attaches to almost any large, centralized, hard-to-
             | account public-money expenditure. Knowing this does not
             | help. Thus far, solar and wind projects have mostly avoided
             | the corruption tax by their simple accounting framework: N
             | generating units x $C per unit = $CxN; and by their clear
             | value proposition: $CxN is lately, and still increasingly,
             | _much less_ than alternatives whether those are figured
             | with corruption tax included or not.
             | 
             | At this time it is cheaper to build out a new solar-and-
             | wind farm and operate it than to continue just to operate a
             | comparable nuke, wholly neglecting construction and
             | decommissioning cost. We finally got the ramshackle Diablo
             | Canyon and Indian Point contraptions shut down, but it will
             | still cost a $billion to take them apart; or, likely, more,
             | according to the degree of corruption tolerated.
        
             | Nitramp wrote:
             | FWIW, fissible material that's used with current technology
             | is actually running out, with a similar timeline to oil.
             | Fission is not an infinite energy source, despite
             | appearances to the contrary. It's also not an cheap as one
             | might hope.
        
               | bbojan wrote:
               | But the current technology can be improved at least 100x
               | (fast fission) to 10000x (breeders).
        
             | arcanon wrote:
             | I think there is one more step change theoretically
             | possible in terms of energy output which is based on anti-
             | quark collisions. We need to understand QCD better. Its
             | hard to know when breakthroughs will happen. Maybe its
             | already happened and we just havent heard about it yet!
             | 
             | We also dont know how to model quantum gravity still. That
             | seems pretty fundamental.
             | 
             | Im optimistic there will be physicists who find something
             | new and whacky that no one could predict.
        
           | rmu09 wrote:
           | All this cheap energy eventually turns into heat. The only
           | way to get rid of excess heat is to radiate it into space,
           | and the only way to radiate _more_ heat into space is with an
           | increased temperature.
        
             | bliteben wrote:
             | I love this somewhat tangentially related article:
             | https://dothemath.ucsd.edu/2012/04/economist-meets-
             | physicist...
        
             | RustyConsul wrote:
             | That might be a blessing on mars.
        
           | ant6n wrote:
           | I'm a little confused. Are you proposing to Save this world,
           | or build/settle others?
        
             | Robotbeat wrote:
             | Yes? If the latter is accomplished, the former becomes
             | trivial.
        
               | TomSwirly wrote:
               | What?! Why?
               | 
               | How will settling Mars or any planet save the biosphere?
               | 
               | We have a few decades to not kill the planet. Settling
               | another planet would take centuries.
        
               | DoreenMichele wrote:
               | I think the idea they are suggesting is that if we can
               | figure out how to terraform Mars and create a livable
               | atmosphere from scratch, the tech and domain knowledge
               | created along the way means cleaning up our atmosphere
               | should be easy in comparison.
               | 
               | Kind of like Olympic gymnasts lift weights and work on
               | flexibility and they want to exceed what their
               | performances require such that the performance is easy
               | and not pushing them to the limits of their ability.
               | 
               | Ie "You have to crawl before you can walk. If you learn
               | to run, walking becomes trivial in comparison."
               | 
               | If that makes sense.
        
               | runarberg wrote:
               | This analogy only makes sense if the world's problems
               | were that of technology. We have ample evidence that it
               | is not.
               | 
               | There exists technology that can transport people over
               | short to medium distances really efficiently and without
               | much greenhouse gas emissions. All it would take would be
               | for policy makers to allocate some funding to build out
               | the infrastructure required, yet they don't.
               | 
               | There exists technology to transport and distribute food
               | wherever there is hunger. Even technology to grow food
               | more efficiently and without additional greenhouse gas
               | emissions. Yet we don't apply that.
               | 
               | Most countries continue to pour money into their most
               | devastating government institutions (the military and the
               | police) that not only cause a world of societal problems
               | on their own, but also pollute a bunch in the meantime
               | for everybody else. At the same time they could be using
               | that money to build infrastructure that would allow us to
               | live a more sustainable lives. But they don't.
               | 
               | If the technology existed that would take people to
               | Proxima Centauri in 10 years, and we invented a bunch of
               | good technology that would help us make our current world
               | better. I bet this new technology would be used equally
               | sparingly as our current technology.
        
               | DoreenMichele wrote:
               | I don't actually disagree with you. But I also know that
               | a lot of tech in use today was born of our efforts to
               | solve problems in space exploration, so I also don't
               | entirely disagree with the line of reasoning that space
               | exploration requires us to meet such a high bar that
               | inventions that grow out of it end up being essentially
               | _trivial_ to implement here on earth.
               | 
               | I'm personally heavily invested in the pieces of the
               | puzzle that tech, per se, cannot solve. My work in that
               | regard gets little in the way of attention and people
               | have long attacked me as a nutter, etc.
               | 
               | I run a citizen planners forum on Reddit. I try to write
               | about local community development at eclogiselle.com.
               | Sometimes something I wrote gets a few thousand page
               | views, but most of what I write gets very little traffic
               | and that seems to be generally trending down, not up.
               | 
               | And I have mixed feelings about that because I have
               | actively sought to ditch traffic rooted in lurid interest
               | in me, so that's sort of "huzzah. I win? I guess."
               | 
               | I would like to see more focus on passive solar design. I
               | would like to see more development of missing middle
               | housing. I would like to see more walkable, bikable
               | communities where Americans can actually live without a
               | car.
               | 
               | I would like to see social change of the sort that's
               | needed to actually solve these problems with the
               | currently available tech. The problem I see is that tends
               | to require a charismatic leader of the sort that
               | historically founded various religions and I see problems
               | with that approach.
               | 
               | I think it's inherently problematic to just take
               | someone's word for it and do as you are told because they
               | said so and you basically worship them. People need to
               | think for themselves, not dutifully do as they were told.
               | 
               | And I don't know how you put out good info to foster the
               | right kind of change in the amount needed etc and do so
               | in a way that sidesteps the tendency for leaders of any
               | sort to dictate what others should do.
               | 
               | So I have kept my footprint intentionally small in some
               | sense while I figure out best practices. "If you don't
               | have time to do it right the first time, when are you
               | going to find time to do it over?"
               | 
               | Best.
        
         | soheil wrote:
         | Can someone do the math to calculate the energy needed for a
         | ship like this to accelerate near the speed of light? I suspect
         | the amount of energy may exceed what's available even if we
         | were to capture all energy generated from the sun.
        
           | jandrese wrote:
           | It's not even the energy that is a problem, it is the mass.
           | The rocket equation is a harsh mistress.
        
             | soheil wrote:
             | But more energy is the only thing that is needed when mass
             | is increased, so not sure why it wouldn't all boil down to
             | energy?
             | 
             | Unless you're talking about escaping Earth specific
             | gravitation.
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | Are you talking about kicking your reactant so hard that
               | it picks up significant amounts of relativistic mass?
        
               | soheil wrote:
               | Haha no but I'm not assuming the rocket equation is
               | applied in Earth's gravitation, but maybe the spacecraft
               | could be built far enough from any plants to be impacted
               | by an initial gravitational field.
               | 
               | If nuclear energy is used, it can be increased in less
               | than linear change in mass.
        
               | jandrese wrote:
               | Regardless of what you use for power a rocket has to
               | eject mass from the rear to propel you forward. Newton's
               | second law.
               | 
               | The problem is that as you increase burn times (like
               | years at 1G), you need to increase the amount of mass you
               | are pushing out the back. But to do this you increase the
               | mass of your rocket which means you need to push even
               | more mass out and it becomes a vicious circle of
               | exponentially increasing rocket mass.
               | 
               | The idea of accelerating at 1G for the entire trip only
               | works if you have a source of propulsion that doesn't
               | obey Newton's second law. Otherwise there literally isn't
               | enough mass in the galaxy to make it work. The caveat
               | being that if you can somehow exploit relativistic mass
               | to effectively multiply your fuel it might be possible,
               | but my math isn't good enough to work it out. My gut
               | feeling is that it would require an unreasonable amount
               | of power however, even for an extremely powerful nuclear
               | power plant.
        
         | davedx wrote:
         | Not true. Generating energy is only part - propulsion is hard
         | too. Even if you had a bunch of anti-matter, how do you build a
         | spacecraft that can safely transport humans for years with a
         | propulsion and storage system that uses it? How do you use M-AM
         | annihilation usefully? It's not like Star Trek.
        
           | BelenusMordred wrote:
           | With antimatter propulsion you'd want to use it as its
           | generated rather than the messy business of trying to store
           | it.
        
           | Johnny555 wrote:
           | Just having a chunk of anti-matter isn't really "solving the
           | energy problem", obviously you need to harvest the energy,
           | but I think that given nearly unlimited energy, propulsion is
           | a much easier problem to solve.
           | 
           | One possibility is:
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_W._Bussard#Bussard_ramj.
           | ..
        
         | BelenusMordred wrote:
         | > a lot of the detrimental effects of long-term space travel
         | are eliminated
         | 
         | Apart from the fact that everyone you know is now dead and if
         | you returned home you'd basically be a living caveman museum
         | piece.
        
           | shpx wrote:
           | Time traveling and seeing what Earth looks like 1000 years
           | from now by spending 30 years in a metal can (and expending
           | an astronomical amount of energy) is a trade I would
           | consider.
        
           | Johnny555 wrote:
           | It's obviously a one way trip, no one would expect to return
           | home (at least, not to the same home that they left, in 2000
           | years, human civilization may not even exist when they
           | return, they could return to a planet colonized by Apes...
           | hey, they would make a great movie!).
           | 
           | But one-way trips have been proposed for planetary
           | colonization as well, and there are a lot of people that
           | would be willing to make that trip.
        
           | numpad0 wrote:
           | I think we'll probably be having subspecies of humanity like
           | Homo Sapiens Destinationshipnamehullnumberius
        
           | nynx wrote:
           | Just solve the aging problem first. That seems to be pretty
           | close at hand anyhow.
        
             | AnIdiotOnTheNet wrote:
             | It seems to me the most likely scenario is that we perfect
             | the ability to copy minds into an electronic computer
             | system. Such a digital mind would no longer need most of
             | the resources a human body would and could potentially last
             | nigh-indefinitely. It would also be able to take advantage
             | of both >1G (no flabby meat body) and <1G (no aging)
             | constant accelerations. Further, a colonization effort by
             | digital beings would only require raw resources to build
             | more electronics and starlight for power, which expands the
             | number of habitable places from "planets with human
             | survivable conditions" to "basically anywhere near a star".
        
               | kybernetikos wrote:
               | Are there any software, hardware or cloud providers
               | currently existing that you would trust to run your
               | consciousness?
        
               | arcanon wrote:
               | It seems trivializing and like an existential crisis to
               | have all of a humans being encoded in a computer. Once
               | you have that, why even keep it running for all time as
               | it is? Its just a version of software you could make
               | changes to. We are probably not as glorious as we could
               | be to become immortal as we are.
        
             | mcculley wrote:
             | I am not convinced there is any solution to aging. When I
             | was a child, I read headlines that claimed a solution was
             | close at hand. We seem only marginally closer to
             | eliminating aging.
             | 
             | Importantly, how many memories do you think can fit into a
             | human brain? If a 1,000 year old man cannot remember all of
             | his life, has aging been solved?
        
       | cousin_it wrote:
       | One of my favorite ideas is having a pair of mirrors, one on the
       | spaceship and another on Earth. Then shine a laser on the ship,
       | it will bounce back and forth, and eventually all the laser's
       | energy will go to speeding up the ship. (Well, the beam will get
       | wider, but you could probably get thousands of bounces.)
       | 
       | A funny twist on that idea just came to my mind: if you're flying
       | past a black hole, having just one mirror on the spaceship is
       | enough. Shine a laser from the ship toward the edge of the black
       | hole just right, it will curve around and come back to your
       | mirror, then reflect and come back again, and so on. Needs some
       | tricky positioning of the mirror, but in principle it lets you
       | "push" off the black hole without using rocketry.
        
         | robotresearcher wrote:
         | > and eventually all the laser's energy will go to speeding up
         | the ship.
         | 
         | Half to the ship, and half to the Earth in the other direction,
         | right?
        
           | cousin_it wrote:
           | Oh. Of course you're right.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | andyxor wrote:
         | sounds a bit like Starshot project funded by Yuri Milner
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakthrough_Starshot
         | 
         | "The Starshot concept capable of making the journey to the
         | Alpha Centauri star system 4.37 light-years away. It envisions
         | launching a "mothership" carrying about a thousand tiny
         | spacecraft (on the scale of centimeters) to a high-altitude
         | Earth orbit for deployment. A phased array of ground-based
         | lasers would then focus a light beam on the crafts' sails to
         | accelerate them one by one to the target speed. At a speed
         | between 15% and 20% of the speed of light, it would take
         | between twenty and thirty years to complete the journey, and
         | approximately four years for a return message from the starship
         | to Earth."
        
           | cmrdporcupine wrote:
           | how does it slow itself down for entry into the alpha
           | centauri system? seems like it would just blow past it
        
             | dvirsky wrote:
             | It doesn't. It snaps some pics, sends them back and moves
             | on.
        
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