[HN Gopher] Out of Africa's midlife crisis
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       Out of Africa's midlife crisis
        
       Author : nkurz
       Score  : 94 points
       Date   : 2021-07-08 13:37 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (razib.substack.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (razib.substack.com)
        
       | rayiner wrote:
       | I subscribe to Razib's substack. His writing style is a little
       | weird and scattered, but he writes a lot about how this area of
       | science is rapidly changing, and has good coverage of new hominid
       | fossil discoveries.
        
         | PaulHoule wrote:
         | Yep, my take was that the content of this article is brilliant
         | but there is something annoying about the writing at the
         | paragraph level that needs work.
        
         | valarauko wrote:
         | I've been reading Razib for close to 20 years, and he's never
         | been a great, or even a very good writer. He more than makes up
         | for it with how prolific he is, and I appreciate how frank he
         | is with his theories.
        
       | imbnwa wrote:
       | Related https://www.discovermagazine.com/planet-earth/how-africa-
       | bec...
        
       | nkurz wrote:
       | I thought this was an interesting article. Summarizing from my
       | very-non-expert POV, he's dividing the world into three groups: a
       | small number (less than 1 million) original African inhabitants;
       | a larger number (about a billion) sub-Saharan Africans who broke
       | off about 100,000 years ago; and then the rest-of-the-world (who
       | went though a tight bottleneck less than 100,000 years ago) about
       | the time they left Africa.
       | 
       | The surprising part is that measured genetic diversity within the
       | small group of original Africans is greater than that of rest-of-
       | the-world. Counter to intuition that skin tone is a strong
       | indicator of relatedness, a Swede and an Andaman Islander
       | probably have more common genetics than two members of different
       | tribes who both live in the Kalahari desert in Namibia.
       | 
       | I'm confused though by his comments about "our species' one-time
       | amazing levels of genetic diversity." Overall, he seems to be
       | espousing the idea that "diversity" is something we once had lots
       | of, but have lost over time. Is this true? Did the the different
       | tribes of African Bushmen start out as genetically distinct as
       | they are today, or did they start from a common population and
       | diverge over the last 200,000 years? Were those who left Africa
       | always distinct from those who stayed, or did they change through
       | selection (and interbreeding with Neanderthals and Denisovans)
       | over time?
        
         | valarauko wrote:
         | > Did the the different tribes of African Bushmen start out as
         | genetically distinct as they are today, or did they start from
         | a common population and diverge over the last 200,000 years?
         | 
         | While groups like the San have a great deal of diversity within
         | the group, they are also distinct from other Hunter Gatherer
         | groups as well. The San are separated from the Hadza by about
         | 110K years, IIRC.
         | 
         | > Were those who left Africa always distinct from those who
         | stayed, or did they change through selection (and interbreeding
         | with Neanderthals and Denisovans) over time?
         | 
         | Yes, those who left Africa were the remnants of a distinct
         | population, separated from the ancestors of sub-Saharan
         | Africans by 40K years when they left Africa 60Kya.
        
         | Camillo wrote:
         | > I'm confused though by his comments about "our species' one-
         | time amazing levels of genetic diversity." Overall, he seems to
         | be espousing the idea that "diversity" is something we once had
         | lots of, but have lost over time. Is this true?
         | 
         | "Diversity" can mean a lot of things. In this case, he's
         | referring to the variety of individual alleles. Due to
         | population bottlenecks, most of humanity has reduced variation:
         | for example, at a certain spot in the genome everyone has a T,
         | because everyone who survived the bottleneck happened to have a
         | T there; but in the population that didn't go through the
         | bottleneck, some people have a G instead.
         | 
         | On the other hand, for phenotypical diversity it's not just the
         | set of individual alleles that matters, but their distribution
         | and correlation. For example, let's say height is affected by
         | thousands of genes, for each of which there is an allele that
         | makes you slightly taller and one that makes you slightly
         | shorter, and the combined effect of all these genes is
         | approximately additive.
         | 
         | Then you may have a population A which has both variants for
         | each gene, but they're independently distributed, so everyone
         | is of medium height, with some variance. We also have a
         | population B, which has only one variant left for several of
         | these genes (they have lost diversity!). But B is split into
         | two sub-populations, which differ in the distribution of the
         | remaining height genes: B1 has more tall alleles, and B2 has
         | more short alleles.
         | 
         | Now the average height of B1 is higher than that of A, and the
         | average height of B2 is lower than that of A. You will find
         | very tall people in B1 that you would never see in A, and very
         | short people in B2 that you would also never see in A. So B has
         | more diverse height phenotypes, even though B1 and B2 (even put
         | together!) still have lower genetic diversity than A in terms
         | of the available repertoire of alleles.
        
         | AlotOfReading wrote:
         | As a general rule, species start out with fairly high levels of
         | diversity from natural processes of evolution. What happened
         | with the out-of-Africa population is what's known as the
         | founder effect. A small population leaves and becomes
         | reproductively isolated. Whatever diversity can be found in
         | their descendents is largely limited to the diversity that was
         | present in the founding population.
         | 
         | One thing that should be made very clear is that ancient
         | population structures generally don't map neatly to modern
         | cultures or languages. It's best to treat modern terms as
         | labels of convenience.
        
           | dorfsmay wrote:
           | Do we have any idea about the size of the original
           | population, the size of the group which left for Europe, the
           | size of the group's who migrated to central/west Africa?
           | 
           | I had heard that there were several waves of migration
           | towards Europe, do we have a better estimate about this?
           | Wouldn't multiple waves over time provide more diversity?
        
             | davisYC wrote:
             | you can infer sizes from genetic diversity ('effective
             | pop')
             | 
             | for the out of africa group i've seen sizes from 100 to
             | 10,000. i used 1,000 to 10,000 as a likely moderate number,
             | and the range also points to the census size being larger
             | 
             | we can assume that conditional on the size of OoA the other
             | groups were way larger (10x or more). otoh, the main thing
             | i did not explore is that i am now believing that africans
             | themselves especially agriculturalists are 'compounds' of
             | various bottlenecked groups (why west africans are closer
             | to eurasians than they are to khoisan)
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | It's worth noting that effective population size !=
               | actual population size. The former is simply a lower
               | bound on it. If the population is structured enough and
               | in the right ways, the actual size can be orders of
               | magnitude higher. This has been an issue with several
               | supposed bottlenecks within African populations.
        
               | davisYC wrote:
               | the rule of thumb for mammals is Ne is 30% of census
               | size.
               | 
               | i think this is probably an overestimate tbh (assumes
               | poisson distribution of offspring).
        
               | AlotOfReading wrote:
               | I'm not sure that's super applicable to humans. Doesn't
               | it also assume panmixia and non-overlapping generations?
               | 
               | Either way, my understanding is that all indications
               | point to middle and late Pleistocene populations being
               | highly structured and "unusual" as far as standard
               | assumptions go.
        
             | wskinner wrote:
             | Yes. This information is in the article.
        
         | zozbot234 wrote:
         | Note that intermixing between those whom we call 'Sub-Saharan'
         | Africans and the "rest of the world" is _definitely_ not new or
         | unique to the  'Western Hemisphere' as OP seems to assume: we
         | know very clearly from Classical written sources and
         | iconography that there were many peoples of 'Sub-Saharan'
         | appearance well north of the Sahara desert, in close contact
         | with Mediterranean and Levantine (thus, clearly "Out of
         | Africa") humans. Even more than this, we know of such 'Sub-
         | Saharan' folks who were very deeply integrated in ancient
         | Mediterranean and Levantine societies, and while these folks
         | were clearly a tiny minority and their distinctive appearance
         | was often remarked upon, this did not hurt their social
         | standing in any sense; there was even a well-known Egyptian
         | dynasty of "Black" pharaohs.
        
           | thaumasiotes wrote:
           | > we know very clearly from Classical written sources and
           | iconography that there were many peoples of 'Sub-Saharan'
           | appearance well north of the Sahara desert, in close contact
           | with Mediterranean and Levantine (thus, clearly "Out of
           | Africa") humans.
           | 
           | We also know they had negligible genetic impact.
           | 
           | > while these folks were clearly a tiny minority and their
           | distinctive appearance was often remarked upon, this did not
           | hurt their social standing in any sense; there was even a
           | well-known Egyptian dynasty of "Black" pharaohs.
           | 
           | You say that like social standing determines who gets to be
           | king. The Nubian pharaohs got their position in the standard
           | way, by conquering Egypt. They weren't native, they took very
           | little interest in their new territory, and they didn't last
           | very long.
           | 
           | There was a well-known Chinese dynasty of Mongol emperors.
           | What do you think the social standing of Mongols in China was
           | before and after that happened?
        
       | dalbasal wrote:
       | For me, it's easier to understand these ideas by adopting a
       | "lumper" mentality to human history. IE, Neanderthals,
       | Denisovans, late Erectus & other archaics were just populations
       | of humans. Sections on a large map of human diversity. On another
       | section were, for example, that small subpopulation accounting
       | for most modern human genetics. Near that little section were
       | other subpopulations that even a "splitter" would call Sapiens.
       | Just because they're Sapiens and we're Sapiens doesn't mean that
       | they left more genetic legacy than Neanderthal subpopulations.
       | 
       | I do have some questions though...
       | 
       |  _" If you don't have Sub-Saharan African ancestry, all of your
       | ancestry (aside from your differential rates of
       | Neanderthal/Denisovan ancestry) goes back to the same
       | 1,000-10,000 humans that split off from other Africans."_
       | 
       | No introgression with other Sapien populations? We know that
       | Sapiens existed outside of Sub-Saharan Africa long before that
       | bottleneck. Are all additions to that genetic stock from other
       | species?
       | 
       | Also, what's the relationship between genetically isolated and
       | genetically diverse? Most of our ancestors went through single a
       | bottleneck 60kya-120kya, with non africans going through at least
       | one more. Theirs did not go through that bottleneck _or_ a
       | seperate one. Coincidence, or is it part of the story somehow?
        
         | valarauko wrote:
         | > No introgression with other Sapien populations?
         | 
         | Perhaps indirectly. As he addresses later in the text, it's
         | possible that Denisovans in South East Asia encountered _Homo
         | erectus_ and interbred with them. The Denisovans appear to have
         | more population structure as compared to Neanderthals, and
         | introgression from _H. erectus_ might explain some of it.
         | Considering that South East Asia and Papua New Guinea has the
         | highest Denisovan introgression in modern humans, it 's
         | possible that some of that _H. erectus_ ancestry ended up in
         | those of us from East of the Indus.
         | 
         | For what it's worth, I have seen other studies pop up from time
         | to time that claim to have found introgression from some
         | unknown ghost sapien population, but these outliers usually go
         | away by tweaking the parameters.
        
           | dalbasal wrote:
           | Interesting. What I meant though was introgression with
           | _closer_ groups. IE there clearly were surviving populations
           | that didn 't go through the major sapien funnels. Their
           | descendants are in the "very diverse" group. Obviously there
           | was, is and will be "introgression" with _them._
           | 
           | Were there other such groups, in or out of sub-saharan
           | africa... whos genes we carry?
        
             | valarauko wrote:
             | I'm not sure what you mean by the other closer groups. My
             | understanding of the field is that when anatomically modern
             | humans expanded out of Africa for the first time 60Kya,
             | they encountered Neanderthals and eventually Denisovans.
             | What other "closer" group was out there for them to
             | encounter?
             | 
             | The other anatomically modern humans were all in Africa,
             | and it looks like there's been no interbreeding with them
             | for at least 100K years. There has been a small
             | introgression _back_ into Africa by non-Africans within the
             | last few thousand years, but that 's a separate issue.
        
         | davisYC wrote:
         | i talk about introgression in this post
         | https://razib.substack.com/p/here-be-humans
         | 
         | the piece was not exhaustive and meant to be an intro
        
           | throwaway894345 wrote:
           | Dang, you created this account back in 2015 and your first
           | comment is from 1 hour ago.
        
             | davisYC wrote:
             | yeah. no idea why it's even called 'davisYC' aside from the
             | fact i lived in davis then -razib
        
               | throwaway894345 wrote:
               | I followed you on Twitter for several years and also
               | heard your interview on the New Liberals podcast. Would
               | love to see you around here more often as well.
        
           | dalbasal wrote:
           | Cheers. These blogs are a treat.
        
       | TimonKnigge wrote:
       | I'm curious if this genetic diversity is just something that
       | shows up as a number on a computer, or does it translate into
       | something phenotypically* visible?
       | 
       | Also, how much of, say, our medical/biological knowledge actually
       | only applies to the descendants of the bottleneck mentioned in
       | the post? I understand the "very diverse" in the article have
       | better things to do than be subjected to researchers, but reading
       | the article I can't help but be curious what this genetic
       | diversity means in practice?
       | 
       | *) not necessarily visually
        
       | bsanr2 wrote:
       | On an extremely tangential note: I wish we would stop using the
       | term, "Sub-Saharan." The semantic quandaries should be obvious,
       | but it also subscribes to a curious linguistic glitch of putting
       | the North and South into a hierarchy that only exists if you are
       | rather incurious about the ambiguity of geographic perspective
       | (see: the infamous "upside down" Gall-Peters projection for some
       | mind-blowey fun). I would personally prefer something like "SOS
       | (South-of-Sahara) Africa," or perhaps even something as
       | provocative as "Africa Major" (riffing on Asia Minor and
       | referring to the fact that that part of the continent is, in
       | fact, a majority of its landmass).
        
         | throwaway894345 wrote:
         | Putting aside the absurd nitpick on the "Sub-" prefix (everyone
         | understands that this refers to "South" and not some position
         | on a hierarchy).
         | 
         | > (riffing on Asia Minor and referring to the fact that that
         | part of the continent is, in fact, a majority of its landmass).
         | 
         | Isn't Asia Minor a bit more than half of Turkey? It's certainly
         | not a majority of all of Asia...
        
           | bsanr2 wrote:
           | >Putting aside the absurd nitpick on the "Sub-" prefix
           | (everyone understands that this refers to "South" and not
           | some position on a hierarchy).
           | 
           | Is it absurd? Do they understand? Can you show me how you
           | know this?
           | 
           | >Isn't Asia Minor a bit more than half of Turkey? It's
           | certainly not a majority of all of Asia...
           | 
           | Sorry, I can see where I was unclear. I was referring to
           | Africa.
        
             | throwaway894345 wrote:
             | > Is it absurd? Do they understand? Can you show me how you
             | know this?
             | 
             | It is absurd, they do understand, and I know it because I'm
             | a native English speaker and I've never been in a
             | conversation where anyone was confused by the term nor even
             | in which someone bothered to clarify that they didn't mean
             | to imply a hierarchy. I'm sure you're going to understand
             | that this is satisfactory evidence and not resort to some
             | sort of "BuT Do YoU kNoW eVeRy SiNgLe PeRsOn On ThE
             | PlAnEt?!" nonsense.
             | 
             | > Sorry, I can see where I was unclear. I was referring to
             | Africa.
             | 
             | Ah, thanks for clarifying. That makes sense.
        
               | bsanr2 wrote:
               | >It is absurd.
               | 
               | Again, how so? The two connotations are not mutually
               | exclusive.
               | 
               | If the goal is to avoid implying a hierarchy, why not
               | change to a term that has no connection to hierarchy?
        
               | throwaway894345 wrote:
               | Because there's no indication that it causes confusion
               | for anyone except, perhaps, you. There is a lot more
               | ambiguity in English than this and we don't put aside all
               | of our other problems to deal with this. Anyway, these
               | kind of semantic debates are the most boring, dull,
               | tedious things I can think of (see also the people who
               | think we need to replace "latinos" with "latinxs") so I'm
               | going to entertain myself with anything else besides this
               | thread.
        
               | bsanr2 wrote:
               | I never held that it causes confusion. The duplicity of
               | meaning is probably, in fact, a bonus for some. I don't
               | like that duplicity. I would rather the terminology be
               | unambiguous and direct, if it is possible (and, in this
               | case, it is).
        
           | QuesnayJr wrote:
           | They meant "Africa Major" would be a majority of Africa.
        
         | fallingknife wrote:
         | Nobody in their right mind actually thinks placement towards
         | the top of a map actually denotes some kind of hierarchy.
        
           | bsanr2 wrote:
           | Orienting with terms like "top" and "bottom" inherently
           | denotes hierarchy. Whether you ascribe _meaning_ to that
           | hierarchy (and I think people do) is another matter.
           | 
           | Explicitly stating direction rather than something that only
           | refers to it with the aid of outside knowledge (the common
           | orientation of maps) would be better. Otherwise, why don't we
           | spin the map 180 degrees? Now the "correct" term would be
           | "Super-Saharan Africa." Which is just as silly.
        
             | BitwiseFool wrote:
             | Don't even get me started on the Prime Meridian. It's even
             | more problematic than North being 'up' and South being
             | 'down'! /s
        
               | bsanr2 wrote:
               | People seem really upset at the notion. Even you can't
               | seem to engage with it as anything but a farce. I have to
               | wonder why.
               | 
               | I'm just going to start calling it Super-Saharan Africa.
               | When people point out the issue on their map, I'll just
               | flip it 180deg. Google Maps conveniently reorients text.
               | 
               | The real fun begins when you decide to make longitude the
               | horizontal aspect. Is it Dexterous Africa or Sinister
               | Africa?
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | BitwiseFool wrote:
               | >"Even you can't seem to engage with it as anything but a
               | farce. I have to wonder why."
               | 
               | No need to wonder, it's because I see it as a farce. The
               | idea that the top / bottom aspect is something that
               | _needs_ to be re-evaluated because it implies hierarchy
               | is something so inconsequential that I just can 't bring
               | myself to take it seriously. And, if you really wanted to
               | flip the hierarchy then you've got the same 'problem'
               | just in reverse.
               | 
               | I know you really want to change the way people think but
               | adopting the term "Super-Saharan Africa" is just going to
               | make you look strange. I guarantee you no one will think
               | "oh, this person means the southern part of Africa, but
               | from the reference point of the equator to the South
               | Pole." They're going to think "Wait what? A bigger
               | Sahara? Desertification? What?"
        
               | bsanr2 wrote:
               | "Super-Saharan Africa" was a joke, meant to draw
               | attention to the farce of this associative naming
               | convention in general. Hence "Left Africa" and "Right
               | Africa". :)
               | 
               | Now, I'll ask you to take it seriously. If it's not a
               | matter of concern for you, but it is for me, it would
               | seem most fair to address my concern (since it's
               | apparenty beneath your care). But if you do care, I'm
               | happy to have that conversation. As stated, I would like
               | to remove hierarchy (or the connotation of hierarchy)
               | from the terminology altogether, and more explicitly
               | refer to directionality. If you disagree with this
               | course, please say why (beyond, "It shouldn't matter,"
               | because at this point we'd have agreed that it does).
        
               | BitwiseFool wrote:
               | I'm going to be honest and say that I'm reluctant to get
               | into a debate with you on this. Simply put, I already
               | know we aren't going to change anyone's mind on this
               | subject.
               | 
               | I will say this, it is perfectly fine to worry about
               | hierarchical structures and the impacts they have on
               | people. But the mere existence or implication of
               | hierarchy is not a problem in-and-of itself. Especially
               | in this context, where I am certain the impact of North
               | being considered 'up' and South being considered 'down'
               | has not materially harmed anyone living down under. I
               | also see no evidence that this paradigm/convention is
               | actually harmful. Only speculation that it could be, in
               | an indirect way, and for reasons I don't find compelling.
               | 
               | I'm also concerned that we're going to slip into one of
               | the least productive kinds of argument, trying to define,
               | redefine, and shift the meaning of words. So I'd like to
               | avoid all of this and let bygones be bygones.
        
             | fallingknife wrote:
             | > and I think people do
             | 
             | Yes there do seem to be a lot of Eskimo supremacists
             | around.
        
               | bsanr2 wrote:
               | I'm not sure what this is supposed to mean.
        
           | api wrote:
           | There is no top of the map since there is no objective frame
           | of reference in space. The axis on which the Earth spins
           | relative to its orbit is a point of orientation but which
           | side is the "top" is arbitrary.
        
             | BitwiseFool wrote:
             | >"top" is arbitrary"
             | 
             | Sure, but at the end of the day you've got to pick a frame
             | of reference and people have settled on North being the
             | 'top'. You can draw a map that ignores this convention and
             | still have it be valid but you're going to confuse a lot of
             | people.
             | 
             | For what it's worth there's more landmass and population in
             | the Northern Hemisphere so make of that what you will.
        
             | fallingknife wrote:
             | Yes, everybody knows that, and if someone asks me where
             | Greenland is on a map, I will say "at the top" like a
             | normal person.
        
               | api wrote:
               | You don't reference the galactic orientation by reference
               | to the nearest superclusters? Pleb.
        
               | nerfbatplz wrote:
               | The enemy's gate is down
        
               | cto_of_antifa wrote:
               | Niceee
        
         | selimthegrim wrote:
         | I've never heard anyone from the Indian subcontinent complain
         | about this.
        
           | rayiner wrote:
           | That's because they don't know it's a dog whistle for "sub-
           | human continent." /s
        
           | bsanr2 wrote:
           | There are more than a billion souls there; I would take that
           | bet.
        
         | allemagne wrote:
         | I don't think this is an extremely important thing to worry
         | about, but I do think you have a point and I like the term
         | "Africa Major."
        
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       (page generated 2021-07-08 23:03 UTC)