[HN Gopher] Physicists observationally confirm Hawking's black h...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Physicists observationally confirm Hawking's black hole theorem for
       first time
        
       Author : _Microft
       Score  : 204 points
       Date   : 2021-07-01 06:23 UTC (16 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (news.mit.edu)
 (TXT) w3m dump (news.mit.edu)
        
       | ordu wrote:
       | _> There are certain rules that even the most extreme objects in
       | the universe must obey._
       | 
       | A strange way to put it. The more object is extreme the harder it
       | would be for it to disobey laws. If we try to imagine what forces
       | are involved, all we'll find is that our imagination has it's
       | limits. I'd be less surprised if some quark disobeyed laws,
       | because it small, forces are minuscule and... who is to notice?
       | Maybe they disobey laws all the time, just scientists fail to
       | catch them red handed.
        
         | justinboogaard wrote:
         | I don't think the quote is saying objects have to obey laws
         | because they are extreme (and therefore easy to notice) I think
         | it's saying all objects have to follow the established rules of
         | physics, regardless of how unusual they are. It's an
         | interesting idea though! Known, "extreme" objects may be less
         | fruitful places to study unknown forces because they have
         | qualities that overwhelming drown out smaller less known
         | forces.
        
       | lennoff wrote:
       | So black holes can't evaporate? How does Hawking radiation works
       | if the back hole are has to stay the same?
        
         | SiempreViernes wrote:
         | I think it's more a case of the press release people wanting to
         | call it a unqualified "law", as far as we know black holes do
         | evaporate slowly.
         | 
         | But there remains is a statement about how the final area
         | relates to the area of the two merging black holes.
        
         | jfengel wrote:
         | Black holes can't evaporate now because the cosmic background
         | radiation is too hot. The black holes are colder the CMBR, so
         | they absorb heat and grow (albeit very, very slightly).
         | 
         | Eventually the CMBR will cool down and the holes will be able
         | to evaporate, but not for an insanely long time.
        
           | __MatrixMan__ wrote:
           | I imagine this holds only for black holes that are massive
           | enough to be stable?
           | 
           | All those itsy bitsy ones created by the LHC, they've
           | evaporated, yes?
        
             | wruza wrote:
             | I believe that LHC has no chance ever to harvest enough
             | energy to create a sensible-sized black hole. It's still
             | mc-squared (give or take an order of magnitude and my
             | layman mistakes), so 1g BH takes about 1e14 joules or 5
             | minutes of average EU electricity output. Also, there is no
             | sea nearby to cool it off afterwards. Also, a planck-sized
             | BH weighs 1e-5 g.
             | 
             |  _A mass similar to Mount Everest[13][note 1] has a
             | Schwarzschild radius much smaller than a nanometre.[note 2]
             | Its average density at that size would be so high that no
             | known mechanism could form such extremely compact objects_
             | 
             | It seems that at energies available to us they are
             | basically either virtual or non-existent. This contradicts
             | the common notion that cosmic rays create microbhs
             | occasionally, but I guess we have to wait for a physicist
             | to clarify this.
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | In theory, it might have made a black hole. It would have
               | lasted a ridiculously small period of time, but be quite
               | recognizable by the energy it gave off. Instead of the
               | usual decay patterns, it would give off a spray just of
               | photons, like a black body at a recognizable (and very
               | high) temperature.
               | 
               | We didn't see that, and in fact theory predicted that it
               | was insanely unlikely that we would. But there's nothing
               | wrong with the possibility of a black hole much, much,
               | much smaller than a gram, with a radius smaller than the
               | Planck length.
               | 
               | If we had seen it, it would have been insanely
               | informative. But it wasn't ever gonna happen.
        
               | morei wrote:
               | Do you know what theory that might be?
               | 
               | The difficulty in producing a black hole is getting the
               | energy density high enough. We have no known mechanism to
               | get an energy density that's even close the right order
               | of magnitude.
               | 
               | Maybe you meant that in theory quantum fluctuations might
               | do it? Unfortunately, this is really a non-answer. The
               | probability is so ridiculously low that it's not
               | practicably distinguishable from zero. (It's _vastly_
               | more likely that every measurement ever taken and that
               | _will_ be ever taken is wrong, than that the event
               | actually happened).
        
             | jfengel wrote:
             | Correct. It's not so much that the small ones are unstable,
             | but just that there's a continuous curve of lifetimes
             | that's a function of mass.
             | 
             | For the LHC, the lifetime of a black hole it could
             | conceivably create would be 10^-86 seconds. It didn't even
             | do that, but if it had, it would have evaporated before it
             | moved the diameter of an electron. There's no functional
             | difference between that black hole and a vastly bigger one
             | besides the mass... but it's a difference of many, many,
             | many orders of magnitude.
        
         | edem wrote:
         | They _do_ evaporate, but they also absorb CMB, and right now
         | CMB > evaporation. Later, when CMB fully dissipated they can
         | evaporate in practice.
        
           | kstrauser wrote:
           | > Later, when CMB fully dissipated
           | 
           | That's one of the most understated uses of "later" I've
           | heard.
        
       | eximius wrote:
       | Alright, I'm confused. How does this square with Hawking
       | radiation? How can a black hole shrink without shrinking?
       | 
       | The article mentions both in the context that they are reconciled
       | but not how they are reconciled.
        
         | edem wrote:
         | If you drain your bathwater while also running the bath you can
         | have a bathtub that's slowly filling up.
        
         | morebortplates wrote:
         | Yes, black holes shrink because of Hawking radiation, but in
         | reality this doesn't really happen because black holes are much
         | colder than their surrounding space. Actually they are the
         | coldest objects in nature. Stellar black holes have a
         | temperature of a few Nanokelvins and the average temperature of
         | space is 2.7 K so there's a net gain of energy/mass from
         | absorbed photons from CMB radiation vs emitted photons via
         | Hawking radiation. In order to have a higher temperature than
         | the CMB a black hole would have to be really small with a mass
         | about half of that of the moon.
        
           | phkahler wrote:
           | From the outside they must look cold since they can't radiate
           | heat any more than light. That doesnt imply anything about
           | the inside.
        
             | ttul wrote:
             | The inside is empty space.
        
               | zaarn wrote:
               | The inside is empty time, space waved you a goodbye at
               | the event horizon.
        
             | morebortplates wrote:
             | What's "inside" of a black hole, meaning behind the event
             | horizon is forever causally cut off from our universe. The
             | Hawking radiation comes from the space around the event
             | horizon. In theory black holes can become very hot if their
             | mass is small. This happens at the end of their life which
             | is in the order of 10^80 years for stellar black holes.
             | 
             | Here is a calculator to play with some values.
             | https://www.vttoth.com/CMS/physics-notes/311-hawking-
             | radiati...
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | Note that this evaporation time assumes a universe at
               | absolute zero. That 10^80 years can't even begin until
               | the CMBR cools enough, perhaps 10^40 years.
               | 
               | Admittedly that's an eyeblink compared to the evaporation
               | time scale, but it does mean that we won't observe any
               | evaporation until many orders of magnitude longer than
               | the universe has existed.
        
               | db48x wrote:
               | Or unless you manufacture or discover a low-mass black
               | hole
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | That's right. If we could create one in a supercollider,
               | it would would be so small that it would be hot enough to
               | evaporate instantly.
               | 
               | There might also be a range of primordial black holes
               | formed directly out of pre-CMBR energy. They'd have to be
               | small enough to be hotter than the CMBR, but not so hot
               | that they'd already have evaporated in the last 14
               | billion years. That's a relatively narrow range, all
               | things considered, but if primordial black holes exist at
               | all then they could exist at any range.
        
           | edem wrote:
           | It _will_ happen, but first dark energy needs to be strong
           | enough to expand the universe fast enough (faster than light)
           | so that CMB wouldn't be able to reach anything.
        
             | morebortplates wrote:
             | Well there are already portions of space that are expanding
             | faster than the speed of light relative to our position.
             | (see cosmic horizon). The CMB is not just a glowing heat
             | somewhere far away, it's everywhere in the universe in
             | every volume of space. The moment when every point in space
             | (on a Planck-lenght-scale i guess) will be expanding faster
             | than the speed of light relative to one another, than
             | space-time itself will rip apart and that's the end of our
             | universe - at least that is what the Big-Rip theory
             | proposes.
        
           | eru wrote:
           | > In order to have a higher temperature than the CMB a black
           | hole would have to be really small with a mass about half of
           | that of the moon.
           | 
           | Either that, or you just wait a couple eternities for the CMB
           | to cool down enough.
        
             | morebortplates wrote:
             | Or primordial black holes with such a small mass actually
             | do exist, who knows...
        
             | sandworm101 wrote:
             | Or you make a smaller one and watch it shrink. It is
             | theoretically possible to construct a smaller black hole by
             | cramming the necessary mass/energy into a small enough
             | space. (Plug a death star into the LHC's big brother.) Such
             | a hole would be very hot and short-lived.
        
           | Yajirobe wrote:
           | how can the temperature of a black hole make sense? Is it the
           | temperature of the singularity point? Is it the temperature
           | of the space inside the event horizon (but it can't be, as
           | that space is empty)?
        
             | lagadu wrote:
             | My understanding is it's the temperature of the event
             | horizon: because it doesn't emit any blackbody radiation,
             | other than the tiny amount from Hawking radiation, any heat
             | measurement from it would be approximately 0k.
        
             | wyager wrote:
             | Temperature has several definitions that produce the same
             | number under normal circumstances but may or may not be
             | applicable in extreme circumstances. In this case, I
             | imagine they could be using the thermodynamic definition
             | (dE/dS, the marginal change in energy per marginal change
             | in entropy - I'm not sure if a BH has well-defined entropy)
             | or something to do with the emission curve of space around
             | the black hole. I vaguely recall something about empty
             | space behaving like a blackbody under a gravitational
             | gradient, so maybe they can use that. You could also use
             | amount of Hawking radiation per surface area. It's possible
             | that some of those produce the same number.
        
             | colechristensen wrote:
             | it is a phenomenon at the event horizon at with radiation
             | is emitted in a way comparable to the radiation produced by
             | every object according to temperature
        
             | Filligree wrote:
             | "Temperature" in this case refers to the amount of energy
             | they emit due to hawking radiation.
             | 
             | By comparing to a black-body curve, you can define a
             | temperature for the hole. Obviously it's not a real object
             | with a real temperature -- if it were, I believe the
             | temperature might be infinite -- but this still works for
             | the purposes of deciding whether it'll grow or shrink.
        
         | streamofdigits wrote:
         | This might help
         | https://physics.stackexchange.com/questions/169886/black-hol...
         | 
         | A black hole merger of this size is unlikely to have any
         | significant quantum aspect
        
         | jleahy wrote:
         | They're not reconciled, it's just garbage reporting.
         | 
         | The 'area theorem' they are referring to was by Bekenstein and
         | others, not Hawking. It's basically the equivalent of the
         | second law of thermodynamics for black holes (dA/dt>=0 instead
         | of dS/dt>=0). Hawking's insight was that this formula was wrong
         | and the area could decrease due to radiation.
        
           | untoxicness wrote:
           | While I agree that the article should have mentioned black
           | hole evaporation, I would like to point out that "dA/dt > 0"
           | is commonly referred to as "Hawking's area theorem" as a
           | quick online search can verify and Stephen Hawking certainly
           | did publish on this topic.
        
           | aliasEli wrote:
           | It is a pity about the reporting.
           | 
           | But it is a fascinating area of research. I never expected
           | that we could measure gravitational waves in our life time.
        
             | Cthulhu_ wrote:
             | I'm amazed - to the point of skepticism - that with such
             | minute forces they can extrapolate so much information and
             | prove theories.
             | 
             | I mean I'm no astrophysicist, I like the "pop sci" bits,
             | but when I look closer I'm seeing a lot of small numbers
             | and statistics that imply something - e.g. exoplanets based
             | on minute wobbles and brightness variations, water on said
             | exoplanets based on spectrography. It's theories based on
             | tiny but statistically significant data.
             | 
             | The pop sci then comes in and makes statements like "second
             | Earth found!11", which is like, whoa hold on, when you look
             | closer all they found is a wobble or dimness variation that
             | kind of implies there might be a planet at a certain
             | distance from its host star.
             | 
             | Anyway I don't dispute the findings or that there are
             | exoplanets or whatever, I'm just impressed that they are
             | able to make confident claims on what little information we
             | can receive from here.
        
               | phkahler wrote:
               | Sometimes I think the claims are overstating things, but
               | since nobody can use the claim to actually do anything it
               | gets a pass.
        
               | brabel wrote:
               | > e.g. exoplanets based on minute wobbles and brightness
               | variations, water on said exoplanets based on
               | spectrography.
               | 
               | The minute wobbles may be tiny, but they can plot a curve
               | of those wobbles and see very clearly that it changes in
               | a certain way that can only be caused by a planet (or
               | something spherical and with a certain mass). If there
               | was a competing theory of how you can get this exact
               | curve in some other way, I am sure we would consider them
               | as alternative possibilities and not be able to tell them
               | apart, but as far as I know, there isn't any competing
               | theories at all... so we can have very high confidence
               | there's a planet there.
               | 
               | Regarding water detection: yeah, spectrography is just
               | mind blowing, but again, given what we know, there's just
               | nothing that could justify believing that when you detect
               | radiation that fit exactly what you would expect from
               | water molecules, that it could be something else
               | instead... unless you come up with a convincing
               | "something else", your only option is to conclude that
               | the detection is accurate, otherwise you would need to
               | stay open to the possibility of absolutely everything
               | possibly having alternative explanations we haven't
               | thought of yet (though every now and then, that indeed
               | can happen and we need to adjust all our theories that
               | are based on the changed body of knowledge), and progress
               | would not be possible in any area (you need to accept
               | something before you can build on top of it).
        
               | lanerobertlane wrote:
               | The problem is the 'pop sci' reporting. "Earth-like" or
               | "second earth" could easily be swapped for "Venus-like"
               | or "second venus" in 99% of cases where pop-sci uses
               | "Earth like" and still be factually correct.
               | 
               | However, Wobbles and Transit photometry are done over
               | time and plot trends which definitively show that
               | something with a certain mass is orbiting with a certain
               | period around the star. There isn't really anything else
               | it could be except an exoplanet, unless our understanding
               | of how physics works was way off, which we know it isn't.
               | 
               | as for Spectrography brabel sums it up in their comment
               | very well.
        
               | nine_k wrote:
               | I suppose Venus has a different enough thermal spectrum
               | due to surface temperatures being 3x Earth's, roughly
               | 900K vs 300K.
               | 
               | Also, Venus must have a big enough sulfur line in the
               | atmosphere, which is absent in Earth atmosphere.
               | 
               | Probably Mars and Earth could be considered close, save
               | for the oxygen line, but not Venus and Earth,
        
               | eru wrote:
               | It's fascinating what's possible.
               | 
               | For example, we know more about the chemical composition
               | of other galaxies than we know about the centre of the
               | earth. Just because we can infer so much from their light
               | spectrum.
               | 
               | (For empirical information about the centre of the earth,
               | we are basically limited to seismic data and perhaps the
               | magnetic field and bumps in gravity?)
        
               | DSingularity wrote:
               | Why not launch a probe and point its sensors at earth?
        
               | nine_k wrote:
               | We hardly resolve any individual _stars_ in other
               | galaxies (maybe some giant stars inside Andromeda?), so
               | our idea of chemical composition of other galaxies is
               | very... averaged.
               | 
               | We barely can resolve largest and closest exoplanets into
               | a few pixels.
        
               | floxy wrote:
               | >We barely can resolve largest and closest exoplanets
               | into a few pixels
               | 
               | For now...
               | 
               | https://arxiv.org/abs/1802.08421
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQFqDKRAROI
        
               | db48x wrote:
               | The Earth is opaque. I don't have a source to cite for
               | this, but I think you can check it easily enough.
        
               | josu wrote:
               | It is not just gravitational waves, they look at light,
               | with telescopes (visible, infra and ultra),
               | spectrographs, interferometers, radio signals, gamma
               | rays...
               | 
               | Then they combine all that info to come up with cohesive
               | theories. LIGO just by itself would be almost useless.
        
               | meowface wrote:
               | >water on said exoplanets based on spectrography
               | 
               | Even though from a theoretical perspective it should be
               | _way_ easier and more reasonable to detect particular
               | molecules on distant planets via spectroscopy compared
               | than to detect things on the mind-blowingly minuscule
               | scale of gravitational waves, I think distant
               | spectroscopy might actually be more prone to error, or at
               | least more prone to false positives.
               | 
               | Just speculating since I have zero expertise in this
               | area, but part of it may be because light from all sorts
               | of sources is reaching us all the time, while
               | gravitational waves significant enough to be feasibly
               | detected pretty much only come from the top percentile of
               | the most energetic events in the universe.
               | 
               | I think if you can discern a gravitational wave-induced
               | spacetime wobble at least once and infer the motion that
               | could've caused it (e.g. black holes/neutron stars
               | merging) and see it matches theoretical expectations, you
               | may continue to have a lot of false negatives, but you
               | probably aren't at high risk of future false positives.
               | 
               | Whereas with spectroscopy, there seem to be a lot of
               | things that can cause both false positives and false
               | negatives even if you do have many prior detections that
               | you believe are accurate. For spectroscopy, both error
               | rates should go down over time as technology and
               | techniques improve, but it seems like it may potentially
               | be an inherently more "murky" observation technique, even
               | if it's far simpler and far less expensive than
               | gravitational wave detection.
               | 
               | (Someone please correct me if I'm wrong about any of
               | this, because there's a pretty good chance I am.)
        
           | Florin_Andrei wrote:
           | I think what they really meant in the article is that it can
           | never decrease through processes other than the radiation.
           | E.g., BH mergers and so on, the area always increases.
        
         | rakkhi wrote:
         | Exactly what I came here to ask. Is Hawking's theory that the
         | area never decreases or that it does not decrease in a black
         | hole merger as was tested here. "central law for black holes
         | predicts that the area of their event horizons -- the boundary
         | beyond which nothing can ever escape -- should never shrink"
         | this seems to imply the former to me.
         | 
         | Does that mean with Hawking radiation the black hole
         | effectively evaporates by loosing mass (?) from the inside
         | without the boundary area never shrinking?
        
       | realYitzi wrote:
       | Anyone can think of any practical effect this might have or is
       | this something that at the moment seems to have only scientific
       | relevance.
        
         | eru wrote:
         | Well, if the result had turned out the other way, we might have
         | seen some practical effects, because it would overturn some
         | well-established theories that we also use for predicting more
         | practical things.
        
           | tibbetts wrote:
           | I'm waiting for a Greg Egan short story to explain this
           | better.
        
             | wyager wrote:
             | Looks like he already has one on BH boundaries:
             | https://www.gregegan.net/PLANCK/Planck.html
        
       | edem wrote:
       | Note that by the time black hole evaporation would be significant
       | the CMB will be long gone because of dark energy (universe
       | expanding). All this means that evaporation is delayed till there
       | is nothing else left apart from black holes (because of the
       | faster than light recession of space itself).
        
       | notorandit wrote:
       | If you have BH evaporation you cannot keep the horizon surface
       | constant.
        
       | Ankaios wrote:
       | Here's the paper:
       | 
       | https://journals.aps.org/prl/accepted/36074Y8aM291c462a4e264...
       | 
       | https://arxiv.org/abs/2012.04486
        
         | louloulou wrote:
         | Thank you! It drives me crazy that news articles about a paper
         | never link to the actual damn paper.
        
       | 867-5309 wrote:
       | so they're 95% sure.. how do they even come up with a figure like
       | that? they didn't bother saying. might be equivalent to 'give or
       | take a few trillion tonnes'
        
         | Cthulhu_ wrote:
         | https://www.zmescience.com/science/what-5-sigma-means-042342...
         | 95% means 2-sigma, when it comes things like the Higgs boson,
         | they announced the results with 5-sigma certainty, which is a
         | very good indication of statistical significance and
         | confidence.
        
           | wyager wrote:
           | It's more that p-value is a _bad_ indication of anything
           | (since it's vulnerable to p-hacking and all kinds of other
           | issues), so physics just picks a really extreme publication
           | threshold to avoid getting inundated with spurious
           | developments.
        
         | mhh__ wrote:
         | It will say in the paper how they went about the error
         | analysis.
         | 
         | These estimates are however, subjective. There is a good paper
         | on this called "Bayesian methods in particle physics"
         | (something like that).
        
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