[HN Gopher] The Broken Promise of Retirement
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Broken Promise of Retirement
        
       Author : bryanrasmussen
       Score  : 58 points
       Date   : 2021-06-27 18:41 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.nybooks.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.nybooks.com)
        
       | birdyrooster wrote:
       | I'm so tired of hearing about the "middle class" because it
       | excludes a huge amount of people that actually make this world
       | work while pretending to be inclusive. It's super gross.
        
         | xf1cf wrote:
         | Regardless of your feelings you're missing the point. The
         | middle class is the bellwether of the economy. Though, I don't
         | think you're truly interested in the economy at large.
         | 
         | When middle class wages go up, small businesses open, they
         | employ more people, creating more middle class people, and the
         | cycle continues ad infinitum. The middle class pays the bulk of
         | the taxes since they lack the finances to avoid them, and
         | additionally is responsible for creating the bulk of the jobs
         | in small business. The middle class also leads consumption. See
         | the previous point for why this is important.
         | 
         | If the middle class fails everything below them fails. The only
         | people that win in all scenarios are the ultra wealthy. If the
         | middle class cannot retire, effectively no one can retire.
         | Since their suffering is magnified in the lower economic
         | strata.
        
         | chrisseaton wrote:
         | > I'm so tired of hearing about the "middle class"
         | 
         | Well then don't read articles about middle class concerns like
         | retirement, in middle class publications like the New York
         | Review of Books.
        
       | sonograph wrote:
       | Off topic: Is it normal for NYBooks to publish things early?
       | Shows as July 1, 2021
        
         | sonofhans wrote:
         | Magazine dates are typically the date the issue is removed from
         | shelves, not the date it first appears. So they likely
         | synchronize with the actual date of print availability.
        
         | ElViajero wrote:
         | > July 1, 2021 issue
         | 
         | I guess that they published the July issue some days early. I
         | guess that if the month issue is already finished, it makes
         | sense to publish it.
         | 
         | Here you can see the mail-date cover-date relationship for the
         | physical publication: https://www.nybooks.com/publication-
         | schedule/
         | 
         | The magazine with cover date "July 1, 2021" is mailed on "June
         | 8, 2021"
        
         | chrisseaton wrote:
         | Magazine issue dates are usually for the month they are on
         | sale, so realistically a month ahead of when you'd buy it if
         | you're buying it as it comes out.
        
       | Etheryte wrote:
       | I'm not up to date with the nuance of the US pension system, but
       | this article seems highly loaded:
       | 
       | > For decades, conservative governors and state legislators [...]
       | have worked to undermine public employee pensions.
       | 
       | > Last year, as the Covid-19 pandemic raged, Senate Majority
       | Leader Mitch McConnell denied governors' appeals for federal
       | emergency aid because he saw an opportunity to punish states for
       | their pension debts.
       | 
       | And so forth. Granted, I don't know the history behind all of
       | this, but even with the benefit of the doubt these seem very
       | stark takes without any additional context.
        
         | jmclnx wrote:
         | In the US there is a "fund" that is suppose to be paid into by
         | Private Companies, Unions and others that is like a Pension
         | Insurance. That fund is Extremely underfunded. If your Company
         | goes bust or the Union implodes, last I heard (many years ago),
         | that fund could only cover a bit less than 50% of your
         | benefits, so you will get a massive cut. Also in the past, if
         | you worked for the Federal or State Gov, you did not get Social
         | Security because you paid into a pension. I do not know if that
         | is still true.
         | 
         | But the Federal Gov through cuts (we all know who pushed those
         | cuts) and Union Busting, is causing the whole pension system to
         | go bust since pensions work only if the Company or Union is
         | growing and people are there to pay into it. Now that union
         | membership is optional in many states, money is not flowing
         | into the fund.
        
           | bradleyjg wrote:
           | > since pensions work only if the Company or Union is growing
           | 
           | There's a name for a scheme like this---pyramid.
        
         | amusedcyclist wrote:
         | How is it loaded if its true ? Its not neutral to avoid blaming
         | the party that is actually responsible for the bad thing being
         | discussed
        
         | _red wrote:
         | Not only that, but undoubtedly they also support the modern
         | neo-liberal Globalist system....so they want to offshore all
         | jobs to slave factories in China, allow millions of
         | 'undocumented' workers to depress salaries, AND bemoan that we
         | can't have multi-decade retirement systems fully funded.
         | 
         | Its astounding how the democrats have gone along with these
         | ideas for so long...
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | supernova87a wrote:
       | I cannot get to the entire article (paywalled) -- but I will
       | point out an issue I know is plaguing US municipal and state
       | pensions.
       | 
       | Aside from the permanent administrative staff, many funds are in
       | the hands and political control of people generally wholly
       | unqualified to understand and manage them, and who have at most
       | their elected positions on the line if it goes badly. It's not
       | their money, so what does it matter if they just apply expertise
       | to the fund's management with all the part-time attention of a
       | high schooler?
       | 
       | The amount of rank amateurism in deciding the fate of many, many
       | billions of dollars is incredible. Like less-than-Excel
       | spreadsheet sophistication.
       | 
       | Take a couple of general examples:
       | 
       | -- Many state/local funds estimate or forecast some optimistic
       | annual return % when they set the benefits level. Then they never
       | revisit or adjust contributions to account for when the market
       | returns fall. Or they do absolutely stupid things like increase
       | benefits when a certain year looks better than average ("our hard
       | working state employees deserve to participate in gains in the
       | market, blah blah blah")
       | 
       | -- They'll set labor contracts with no eye towards what the
       | promised benefits will cost 25 years from now. Who cares? The
       | elected officials now won't be around when the bill comes due,
       | and the incentives to not get tossed out of office for being
       | responsible and clamping down on the expensive party are much
       | more real than paying a few dollars more decades from now.
       | 
       | -- My favorite example: under years of mismanagement of rank
       | amateurs (as I named above), Detroit discovered that its pension
       | fund had been habitually paying out "13th paychecks" each year --
       | an extra check in December above what was planned, as a xmas gift
       | to employees/retirees, because "it looked like our fund was doing
       | well, and these people need that money to make ends meet".
       | 
       | You may be surprised at how bad the situation is in every state
       | and city (with few exceptions) thanks to the bad incentives that
       | these systems create. And few rewards for people who are
       | responsible enough to try to fix it before it becomes critical.
       | People have been pointing to waves of bankruptcy and spiraling
       | costs in the near future, for years now.
       | 
       | And you wonder why we can't fund infrastructure and other nice
       | things.
        
       | themodelplumber wrote:
       | > 80 percent of the tax benefits go to the top 20 percent of
       | taxpayers.
       | 
       | I hope someday we can all see why this is both amazing and
       | ridiculous...
       | 
       | > In Rescuing Retirement, Ghilarducci and James promote what they
       | call a "Guaranteed Retirement Account" (GRA), a system of federal
       | retirement savings accounts that would combine features of
       | defined benefit and defined contribution plans.
       | 
       | Nice to see a proposal in the article.
       | 
       | > GRAs would be professionally invested and would, Ghilarducci
       | and James argue, generate greater returns than existing 401(k)s
       | by taking advantage of access to the more profitable investments
       | and lower fees that large pools of assets can offer. The accounts
       | would follow workers throughout their careers, even if they
       | changed employers. When the time came, the GRA would be
       | transformed into an annuity, which, alongside Social Security,
       | would pay out a consistent and lifelong income.
       | 
       | I don't know anything about 401(k)s but do they really operate on
       | some foundational condition of less-profitable investments and
       | higher fees?
        
         | jdeibele wrote:
         | The key is the administrator. This might be Vanguard or
         | Fidelity or it could be a much smaller company, probably local.
         | 
         | Some companies have experienced people looking at many
         | companies and picking one based on the lowest costs and wide
         | selections.
         | 
         | Other companies might pick Joe Blow Company because the
         | salespeople are attractive and the lunches and dinners are
         | expensive. Vanguard might have salespeople if you're big enough
         | but most companies aren't.
         | 
         | Locally, there was a company that got its hands on a lot of
         | union pension money. They took the trustees on safaris in
         | Africa, etc.
         | https://www.wweek.com/portland/article-23437-sept-21-2000-th...
         | In a lot of cases, the people making the recommendations aren't
         | evil but just overwhelmed by the personalized attention that a
         | high-cost alternative can give them.
        
         | tclancy wrote:
         | I am guessing the last part means on average. As a sole
         | investor, the fees on any fund will always be higher than what
         | is available to an institutional investor. And this would make
         | quite a big institutional investor.
        
         | namdnay wrote:
         | I don't see what investment is more profitable and lower fee
         | than a bog standard vanguard ETF
        
           | jimhefferon wrote:
           | You need the money to be there in forty years. What happens
           | if, say, US stocks did in that time what Japanese stocks did
           | in the past decades, and you bet wrong? Asking average people
           | to be good at finance is potentially a big ask.
        
             | pessimizer wrote:
             | Nothing worse than if your manager screws up and loses
             | everything, which is far more likely. Especially since the
             | criteria for choosing who's going to manage these massive
             | funds is going to be gamed.
        
             | mlyle wrote:
             | I don't want to "bet" with my long term investments
             | intended to provide for basic survival. Instead I want to
             | deploy things to a weighted average of equities (small,
             | big, domestic, and world), bonds, and other assets (real
             | estate) and occasionally rebalance (take profits).
             | 
             | And, one doesn't need some magical financial acumen to do
             | this. You can buy a "target retirement" fund which simply
             | holds things in a ratio (based on financial industry
             | consensus) recommended for your retirement age.
        
           | themodelplumber wrote:
           | Vanguard ETF recommendations, the last-ditch concealed weapon
           | of every contingency-focused investor in online discourse for
           | like the last 20 years. :-) Funny to see that here.
        
         | sbeller wrote:
         | > I don't know anything about 401(k)s but do they really
         | operate on some foundational condition of less-profitable
         | investments and higher fees?
         | 
         | The (HR person of the) employer chooses what to allow in a
         | 401k. Normally you have a dozen funds or so available. And the
         | choice by the employer doesn't necessarily align with the
         | employees interests, as the high fee funds would love to send
         | you that amazon gift card, whereas the low fee funds wouldn't
         | even reach out to you. ;-)
        
           | themodelplumber wrote:
           | That's pretty wild! Wow. Seems like one of those setups
           | that's one 401k-mockumentary away from imploding.
        
         | smitty1e wrote:
         | > "Guaranteed Retirement Account" (GRA), a system of federal
         | retirement savings accounts
         | 
         | Given Social Security, not only as a concept, but how it has
         | been used as a piggy bank by a spendthrift Congress, the
         | likelihood that a GRA would suffer a similar result is close to
         | certain.
         | 
         | "Giving money and power to government is like giving whiskey
         | and car keys to teenage boys."--P.J. O'Rourke
        
           | themodelplumber wrote:
           | Just speaking from experience here: One P.J. O'Rourke quote
           | and I'm off to where the minds are open--nothing personal.
        
       | danbruc wrote:
       | Have the currently working part of the population pay a tax on
       | their working income, hand this money out to the currently
       | retired part of the population, to some extend proportional to
       | their contribution during their working years.
        
         | wmf wrote:
         | Can't tell if trolling. This is called Social Security.
        
       | ed25519FUUU wrote:
       | > _Pensions represent more than their economic value. They carry
       | a powerful moral recognition: workers deserve financial stability
       | and the freedom it brings throughout their lives. Municipal and
       | state employees contribute to their pensions with every paycheck,
       | and employer contributions supplement their savings._
       | 
       | I don't know how it came to be that politicians could promise
       | impossible things to public employees in exchange for power, and
       | when it turned out to indeed be impossible, somehow the taxpayer
       | foots the bill.
       | 
       | I'm under no obligation to carry forward an unsustainable
       | promise. It should have never been promised in the first place.
       | The taxpayer, who gets NONE of this, is not the one who should
       | pay the bill.
        
         | cortesoft wrote:
         | The voters elected people who made that promise. Of course
         | taxpayers are on the hook for promises made by politicians.
         | 
         | The taxpayer DID get something for this. They got public
         | employees who took less money up front in return for a good
         | pension. This saved the taxpayers money in the short term.
         | 
         | Under your argument, is the government not required to keep ANY
         | promise? "The government should never have promised to pay back
         | these treasury bills. Taxpayers don't get anything from
         | redeeming them, we shouldn't pay off any of the government
         | debt!"
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | The taxpayer benefits by paying tomorrow for a sandwich today.
         | Government employees trade lower cash compensation for
         | stability and more secure benefits.
         | 
         | I'm sure you get upset when you read about some big company
         | charging billions for some mismanaged project. That's generally
         | the alternative.
         | 
         | You may not feel an obligation for your government to follow
         | the law and responsibly manage its obligation to pay some 70
         | year old former librarian her modest pension. Hopefully your
         | understanding about government not meeting obligations holds
         | when you can't get to work because a highway bridge is closed
         | due to deferred maintenance, or your parents don't get adequate
         | care because your state health department fails to effectively
         | regulate nursing facilities.
        
           | mbg721 wrote:
           | Those failures are all going to happen anyway, because the
           | underlying promises were always unsustainable. The question
           | is whether or not we're happy declaring today's 70-year-old
           | public officials the winners and today's kids the losers.
        
       | baybal2 wrote:
       | Unfortunately, our generation of nineties, and later will have to
       | work until our deathbed.
       | 
       | That's the brutal truth.
        
         | bradleyjg wrote:
         | Your generation has embraced FIRE in a way a lot fewer in mine
         | ever did. Some people are clearly making it work. Others are
         | taking out more student loans for their third masters degree
         | because their other careers weren't an authentic manifestation
         | of their inner identities.
        
           | baybal2 wrote:
           | I don't understand you
        
             | bradleyjg wrote:
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/FIRE_movement
             | 
             | Some people born in the early 90s are already retired.
        
               | baybal2 wrote:
               | I understood you now
        
       | MarkusWandel wrote:
       | Is it really as political as that as in "the big bad republicans
       | ate my pension"?
       | 
       | Juicy pensions are on the decline everywhere. The company I
       | started working for at age 23, so many years ago, in all its
       | vertically integrated, multinational glory, provided, at the
       | time, pensions you really could continue living a middle class
       | lifestyle on. I duly got into that pension plan, with the huge
       | pension adjustments that entailed (greatly reduced ability to pay
       | into your RRSP) but that future defined benefit pension was worth
       | it.
       | 
       | Except that $bigco went bust, and when the dust settled, we got
       | cash payout of the some percentage of the deemed value of the
       | accrued pension that they could recover from the financial
       | wreckage, and that was that. No pension at all.
       | 
       | Now I and everyone else is just on defined contribution plans,
       | where between your own and the company's contribution you put in
       | maybe 10% of what it would take to live on, per year. The rest is
       | supposed to miraculously come from compound gains, using the old
       | wisdom that anyone can get 10% per year without effort.
       | 
       | What does that mean in real life terms? Live cheap, far below
       | your financial means - one basic car instead of his & hers SUVs,
       | a basic house in a decent neighbourhood instead of the latest 5K
       | square feet monstrosity and so on, and try to save a good 1/3 of
       | your income for the future. Barring a financial meltdown or
       | runaway inflation, I think we'll make it. The fact that "runaway
       | healthcare costs" are not a factor here helps a lot, though
       | without a company plan, you're on your own for all dental work
       | and (up to a certain age) all prescription drug costs.
       | 
       | Anyway the economics is simply this: Work for 40-45 years and
       | accrue enough to live another average 25 years after you retire.
       | The $$ have to come from somehwere. You see a lot about super
       | juicy public sector pensions in the USA where people can retire
       | in luxury before age 50... probably outliers, as is the "evil
       | people stole the pension fund" situations. On the whole, it's
       | just that people live longer.
        
         | Spooky23 wrote:
         | During the 80s, get tough on crime politics mushroomed pensions
         | and healthcare obligations because state/local governments
         | lacked the cash flow for raises during higher inflation times.
         | 
         | Police and fire pensions usually drive this stuff because
         | overtime assigned by seniority spikes salaries and pensions.
         | 
         | The "evil republican" angle is that "fiscally conservative"
         | politicians usually balanced budgets by cutting pension
         | contributions or buying support by reducing local contributions
         | during tight budget times. Democratic legislators and governors
         | did this too, but this type of fiscal behavior is a
         | "conservative" trademark.
         | 
         | States like New York have mostly funded pensions, even with
         | generous pension plans. The "secret" is easy - governments,
         | especially local governments have to pay.
        
         | toomuchtodo wrote:
         | The US workforce (at the time) was sold on 401ks as a
         | replacement for pensions, when they're really for only the
         | highest compensation earners as a tax dodge [1]. Predictably,
         | very few made enough to contribute to a 401k in a manner that
         | would replace the safety of pensions, and now large cohorts
         | nearing retirement are left with little while shareholders
         | captured profits that previously contributed towards funding
         | pensions. Tada!
         | 
         | [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=21827154
        
           | clairity wrote:
           | > "The US workforce (at the time) was sold on 401ks as a
           | replacement for pensions, when they're really for only the
           | highest compensation earners as a tax dodge..."
           | 
           | pensions don't really make sense though, because they create
           | adverse incentives all around. first, for the pensioner, who
           | transfers future risk to the pension, and by extension to the
           | company, its customers, employees, and shareholders. and
           | second, it's a big pot of money just sitting there begging
           | the greedy to tirelessly and surreptitiously work to siphon
           | off just a tiny spigot of it. and those are just the two most
           | obvious ones.
           | 
           | parhaps the risk profile is too far in the opposite
           | direction, but 401(k)'s could be fixed, for instance, by
           | requiring companies to set up and contribute inverse-
           | proportionally to monthly take-home pay, and tax the company
           | progressively on contributions based on total compensation,
           | so that highly-paid executives who need a 401(k) the least
           | would be discouraged from that avenue of compensation, while
           | the least-paid employees get a (partially-)funded retirement
           | account automatically.
        
             | gizmo686 wrote:
             | The issue with the 401k is that it is essentially an anti-
             | progressive tax. It is there as a way for the government to
             | encourage and subsidize retirement savings; but it does so
             | by providing a 1:1 deduction on taxable income (with a
             | choice of taking the deduction now or during retirement).
             | This means that you get a greater benefit (read subsidy) if
             | you are at a higher tax bracket; even if you are looking at
             | the benefit in percentage terms instead of absolute.
             | 
             | If you don't pay income tax, you get no benefit from a
             | 401k.
             | 
             | We can go a long way to solving this by just making the
             | subsidy a flat refundable tax credit. If we wanted to make
             | it progressive, we could to the inverse of progressive
             | income tax: by making the first $X get you a Y% credit,
             | with a decreasing credit as you go up in contribution
             | brackets.
        
               | bradleyjg wrote:
               | The savers tax credit is similar to what you are
               | proposing.
               | 
               | https://www.investopedia.com/articles/retirement/04/03170
               | 4.a...
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | forrestthewoods wrote:
           | And yet defined benefit pensions are pyramid schemes that are
           | increasingly top-heavy and too many retirees and not enough
           | workers to pay for their luxurious and impossible retirement
           | benefits.
           | 
           | It is not possible for anyone to work 30 years and then
           | retire for another 30 that pay out their end-of-career
           | salary, that is likely artificially inflated with crazy
           | overtime.
           | 
           | The pandemic relief bills included almost 90 billion dollars
           | in free money to bailout pensions. Pensions are insolvent and
           | require corrupt bailouts to stay alive. It's all super super
           | gross.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | an_opabinia wrote:
           | > shareholders captured what previously funded pensions
           | 
           | Hmm, but passive retiree investors, on whose behalf all those
           | institutions like Blackrock are ultimately investing, have
           | probably contributed enormously to a rise in asset values.
           | Shareholders gain a lot from people dumbly saving in
           | investment vehicles, whether pensions or 401ks.
        
           | Afforess wrote:
           | Agree. 401ks were never intended to be a complete retirement
           | plan or pension replacement, and are frankly untested at the
           | scale that they are now being used for. It's a little scary
           | that a tiny carveout of the larger IRS code for pensions was
           | turned into the defacto retirement plan for Americans.
           | 
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/401(k)#History
        
             | bradleyjg wrote:
             | Social security and Medicare are supposed to provide a
             | floor and prevent elderly poverty. We've gotten much much
             | richer (which somehow previous generations never get any
             | credit for) and so that floor seems a lot lower than it
             | used to.
             | 
             | Beyond keeping the elderly out of poverty I'm not sure
             | there's a problem to solve. If people would rather drive a
             | BMW in their 30s than play golf in their 70s who am I to
             | tell them they are wrong?
        
           | afpx wrote:
           | 401ks are great.
           | 
           | I started maxing out my 401k account 25 years ago, back when
           | I was only 22 and making $30,000 / year.
           | 
           | At the time, financially it was a little rough. My wife
           | wasn't working, and I had a ton of debt from school. But, I
           | figured it would be easier to do it then, while I was able
           | and we didn't have kids.
           | 
           | I doubled down on compound interest and the future growth of
           | the global economy. I invested it all in S&P 500. There were
           | several significant down turns. But, eventually the
           | investments started working for me instead of being a sink.
           | Now, on average, I gain about double my salary in investment
           | returns, per year.
           | 
           | So, I totally recommend 401ks highly for people under 25.
           | 
           | However, there are certainly sketchy companies out there
           | offering plans. So, it's wise to compare a fund's fees and
           | expense ratios to ones like Vanguard admiral funds.
           | 
           | Also, I do understand that the major benefits of 401ks go to
           | those in higher tax brackets, but still - it's a solid way to
           | automatically pay one's future self first.
        
           | koolba wrote:
           | The problem with pensions is that nobody wants to actually
           | pay for them. It's a great concept, but nearly impossible to
           | keep financially solvent without growth of the payor base.
           | 
           | Defined contribution plans cannot be fudged with accounting
           | rules or unsustainable growth rates. By definition the money
           | is paid as its accrued.
           | 
           | If people want a defined benefit plan then the market should
           | provide one they can purchase outside of their job. It's not
           | rocket science to do the math involved for growth vs payout
           | vs life expectancy. The problem is that the math doesn't add
           | up so nobody would buy it.
        
             | toomuchtodo wrote:
             | > The problem with pensions is that nobody wants to
             | actually pay for them. It's a great concept, but nearly
             | impossible to keep financially solvent without growth of
             | the payor base.
             | 
             | You mean companies don't want to pay for them, and instead
             | offer pathetic 401k matching as a compromise. That is the
             | key point: the shift from defined benefit to defined
             | contribution was done to shift profits away from workers.
             | Very similar to college costs going up when public funding
             | for education institutions decreased.
             | 
             | https://crr.bc.edu/working-papers/the-outlook-for-pension-
             | co...
             | 
             | > This paper addresses the relationship between defined
             | benefit pension plans and corporate profits and examines
             | the outlook for defined benefit plans in the wake of the
             | bear market. Due to a soaring stock market during the
             | extended bull market of 1982-2000, together with federal
             | regulations and legislation that shifted funding
             | requirements forward, pension contributions virtually
             | disappeared as a corporate expense for much of the previous
             | two decades.
             | 
             | > Our analysis suggests that in the absence of the stock
             | market boom and the regulatory and legislative changes that
             | reduced funding, the average firm's contribution to its
             | pension plan would have been 50 percent higher during the
             | 1982-2001 period - 9.9 percent of payroll instead of 6.6
             | percent of payroll. The downturn in contributions had a
             | significant impact on corporate profits. Lower pension
             | contributions, all else equal, will produce a dollar-for-
             | dollar increase in before-tax profits. Our analysis implies
             | that corporate profits were roughly 5 percent higher than
             | they would have been otherwise. Higher profits produce a
             | feedback effect as they lead to further capital gains and
             | further reductions in contributions.
             | 
             | Excessively generous pensions or those assuming unrealistic
             | market returns are a different issue. Pensions can be
             | sustainable when properly implemented and governed.
             | 
             | High level, the past strip mined the future, and the bill
             | is coming due.
        
               | PragmaticPulp wrote:
               | > You mean companies don't want to pay for them
               | 
               | Not just that, but most employees would choose higher
               | paychecks and a 401K option over a company that offered
               | lower paychecks but a substantial pension, even if the
               | net compensation was equivalent.
               | 
               | Pensions become increasingly less attractive as young
               | people recognize that changing jobs every several years
               | is a quicker route to financial career growth than
               | parking long-term at one company with a pension.
               | 
               | I was once acquired into a company that offered the worst
               | benefits I had ever seen (zero insurance contribution,
               | zero 401K match, basically just paychecks and nothing
               | more). I thought it would be a death sentence for
               | recruiting, but it turned out most younger candidates
               | just don't care at all about anything other than their
               | salary number. We lost a lot of people as they grew older
               | and had families, but younger people didn't bat an eye at
               | the near complete lack of benefits. We could win a lot of
               | hiring battles by simply offering the higher bottom-line
               | salary number since we had such little overhead. (I left
               | quickly for a better company)
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | It works in the aggregate in a tragedy of the commons
               | sort of way, but social security taxes will just keep
               | ratcheting up so everyone who didn't save enough get a
               | basic level of retirement (old people vote reliably, and
               | there are a lot of poor old people on the horizon),
               | probably with means testing starting in 10-15 years. I
               | suppose that's the best we can hope for considering
               | humans and their terrible risk management and long term
               | decisioning ability, and there's clearly enough wealth
               | and productivity for government to sink its teeth into.
               | If the private sector couldn't do it with 401ks or
               | pensions on the front end, government can do transfer
               | payments (social security) and taxes on the backend.
        
               | koolba wrote:
               | > High level, the past strip mined the future, and the
               | bill is coming due.
               | 
               | I have no issue with private pensions. If employers want
               | to offer them and employees accept them, have at it.
               | Don't look to me to find the difference when the numbers
               | don't add up.
               | 
               | Public pensions are a disaster though. The people making
               | the promises don't care about being fiscally solvent.
               | They just want to buy votes using your grandchildren's
               | tax dollars as a credit card.
               | 
               | The earning class will eventually vote with their feet
               | and those municipalities will either force a haircut on
               | the pensioners or beg for a Federal bail out.
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | bradleyjg wrote:
             | The market does provide it, it's called a deferred annuity.
             | If you find the pricing disappointing, well then you see
             | the issue with pensions.
        
               | koolba wrote:
               | That's precisely my point. People don't want to pay the
               | true cost of taking on a 40 years deferred annuity.
        
         | cortesoft wrote:
         | > and try to save a good 1/3 of your income for the future.
         | 
         | But that is what pensions ARE. The people who got them took
         | less money up front because part of their compensation was a
         | defined benefit pension. They WERE saving money by deferring
         | payment.
         | 
         | How is this any different than your 401k suddenly saying
         | "sorry, when we said we were investing in the stock market with
         | your money we actually used it on other stuff, so now your
         | retirement account doesn't have any money"?
         | 
         | Would your response be to tell the people who were investing
         | their retirement in the 401k, "well you should have saved money
         | for retirement"
         | 
         | They were trying to save money for retirement! They saved money
         | they were making now to be used later. Are you suggesting
         | people should only save by stuffing money in their mattress?
        
         | throw0101a wrote:
         | > _Is it really as political as that as in "the big bad
         | republicans ate my pension"?_
         | 
         | Which party / ideology is trying to get rid of the public
         | Social Security in the US?
         | 
         | *
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_Security_debate_in_the_...
         | 
         | Do you think it's a coincidence that wealth and income
         | inequality in the US as exploded since 1980, the year that
         | Reagan got elected? (Though the Democrats in Congress have been
         | complicit.)
         | 
         | The American oligarchs have put on a concerted effort since the
         | 1970s, and they've largely been succeeded. Good history of the
         | subject published in 2020:
         | 
         | *
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evil_Geniuses:_The_Unmaking_of...
        
       | papito wrote:
       | I really don't understand what people think when they choose to
       | ignore retirement contributions. What do they think is going to
       | happen when they get old? Seriously, _what_ to they expect to
       | happen? A Government man showing up at their doorstep with a fat
       | suitcase filled with dollars?
       | 
       | Also, IRA, SHMAYARAY. Max out your Roth every year, and then do
       | whatever. I don't see how the taxes for the rest of us are going
       | to go down with the aging population.
        
         | ralph84 wrote:
         | I think you're a tad too optimistic congress won't find ways to
         | tax Roth distributions. It's easy to imagine a future with a
         | higher age for qualified distributions and/or distributions
         | over $x or from an account with a balance over $y being
         | classified as non-qualified. $x and $y will of course be chosen
         | to appear to target the "rich", while mostly hitting the middle
         | and upper middle class, just like AMT, the SALT deduction cap,
         | and other "tax reforms".
        
         | xf1cf wrote:
         | You're missing the point of the pension and social security.
         | There are, and has always, been a large portion of society
         | making "just enough". Maxing out your 401k requires 19,500
         | dollars of pre-tax income you can dump into an account you
         | can't touch. A little less with a match.
         | 
         | So do the math:
         | 
         | Median income in 2019: $65,712.
         | 
         | $19,500 is almost 30% of your pre-tax income. Not a whole lot
         | left to save for a house, buy a (old, used) car, or any number
         | of other things. I say pre-tax because the situation is even
         | more bleak if you look at roth post-tax.
         | 
         | After contributing to your 401k as above your remaining take
         | home after taxes (assuming you do not pay state taxes) is
         | $23635.
         | 
         | So you max out your IRA at $6,000.
         | 
         | Now you have $17,635 to live on. Almost nothing. Maybe in the
         | 90s this would've worked but even in my low CoL town renting an
         | apartment will still run you $1,100 for a single room 600
         | square foot shack. You could do it, but you would be living on
         | ramen and beans towards the end of the year assuming there
         | weren't any medical emergencies, car problems, or any number of
         | other things that could effect you (rising food costs, gas
         | prices, electrical costs in summer, etc).
         | 
         | The purpose of a pension is that it provides a simple, easy,
         | and guaranteed retirement plan for people in this situation.
         | They can't afford to utilize their 401k for maximum benefit,
         | and they can't afford to utilize an IRA to it's maximum
         | benefit. 401ks were one of the greatest magic tricks ever
         | pulled on Americans. While I agree they're great if you have
         | the extra income, they do a lot of damage to the retirements of
         | people who cannot afford them.
        
         | gizmo686 wrote:
         | Relying on pensions is not ignoring retirement. It is assuming
         | that you will receive the benefit you were promised as part of
         | your compensation. Not getting your promised pension is the
         | same as your 401k balance being confiscated by your broker to
         | cover for their own financial shortfall.
         | 
         | The main difference is that the 401k is a much more transparent
         | product, so this outright theft is not as possible. The flip
         | side of that is that your exposure to the market is more direct
         | (which may not be that much of a flipside, as pension funds are
         | still exposed to the market, but that exposure is more
         | obscured).
         | 
         | > I don't see how the taxes for the rest of us are going to go
         | down with the aging population.
         | 
         | Who says taxes are going to go down? Reading the political
         | winds, the grass roots support for raising taxes is the highest
         | I have ever seen it, and seems to be growing. We are leaving
         | the political era of low taxes independent of the actual fiscal
         | need to raise them.
        
           | bradleyjg wrote:
           | Employers going bankrupt was always a risk. Why didn't their
           | elected collective bargaining representatives negotiate for
           | an independently administered, fully funded, bankruptcy
           | remote pension investment vehicle?
        
         | cortesoft wrote:
         | That is not what this article is about. These people took jobs
         | that HAD defined pension plans. They took the jobs based on
         | those promised pensions, and planned their savings around the
         | amounts promised.
         | 
         | Then, the pensions went bankrupt and failed to pay what they
         | promised.
         | 
         | This is not people failing to plan for the future. This is
         | people having what is promised them revoked.
        
       | drdec wrote:
       | Given that the current government bailed out private pension
       | plans to the tune of $86 billion dollars as part of the latest
       | COVID-19 relief bill [1], I am not concerned that they will soon
       | tackle the government pension funds which have also have
       | shortfalls.
       | 
       | According to the article, the private pension bailout was "paid
       | for" by ending the enhanced unemployment program in August
       | instead of September. Of course, you don't pay for new spending
       | by "cutting" other new spending.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.forbes.com/sites/ebauer/2021/03/10/the-covid-
       | rel...
        
         | bradleyjg wrote:
         | Note that the bailout came with absolutely no strings attached.
         | Apparently nothing went wrong that caused an $86 billion
         | shortfall so no changes need to be made going forward.
        
       | bradleyjg wrote:
       | Everyone wants a bailout. The multiemployer pensions got one in
       | the third Great Covid Helicopter Drop. But what confidence do we
       | have that we won't be exactly in the same spot a couple of
       | decades?
       | 
       | Mayor Kilpatrick signed a terrible deal and separately (?) was
       | corrupt and went to prison. Have the voters learned anything?
       | Have their voting patterns notably changed since then?
       | 
       | What about the union representatives elected by the Detroit
       | municipal workers? Don't they bear some culpability? Have there
       | been a seismic shift there, or are the same old cronies still
       | passing off power one to another?
        
         | wcunning wrote:
         | On the same vein -- look at how many Big Three UAW senior
         | people have been indicted on corruption charges just in the
         | last 5 years... I haven't kept up with all of it but the number
         | is at least in the tens from Chrysler UAW alone.
        
       | ArkanExplorer wrote:
       | Providing retirees with cash, which they then use to
       | independently procure good and services across millions of
       | individuals, is fundamentally inefficient.
       | 
       | Instead, we should treat each retiree as a ward of the state, and
       | provide them with Government housing, cell phone and plan, food
       | (cooked or ingredients), and a limited amount of
       | electricity/water - plus a small stipend for private purchases.
       | 
       | The other fault of the current system is that we link retirement
       | to age - instead, it should be linked to health: if you can
       | continue working, you should be expected to do so.
       | 
       | With the savings, we can eliminate regressive taxes like sales
       | taxes (or just enable the currently totally unsustainable system
       | to keep functioning.)
        
         | chrisseaton wrote:
         | I don't think many people in the US look forward to spending
         | their last years with 'a limited amount of electricity/water'.
        
         | gruez wrote:
         | Can't you replace "retiree" with citizen/employee and use the
         | same argument to advocate for a planned economy and/or company
         | towns? ie.
         | 
         | "Providing citizens with cash, which they then use to
         | independently procure good and services across millions of
         | individuals, is fundamentally inefficient.
         | 
         | Instead, we should treat each citizen as a ward of the state,
         | and provide them with Government housing, cell phone and plan,
         | food (cooked or ingredients), and a limited amount of
         | electricity/water - plus a small stipend for private
         | purchases."
        
         | tuxinator wrote:
         | If you can continue working you should be expected to do so?
         | That sounds dystopian honestly.... that's not the future we
         | should be striving to build.
        
       | thrill wrote:
       | Just like your healthcare, if laws and incentives affecting your
       | retirement are dependent on someone's else's decisions about
       | where to allocate and how much of the resources you worked so
       | hard to obtain, then you're living under an illusion of
       | independency.
        
       | greyface- wrote:
       | https://archive.is/B7Mgq
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-06-27 23:02 UTC)