[HN Gopher] Desert plants are struggling in higher heat
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Desert plants are struggling in higher heat
        
       Author : LinuxBender
       Score  : 63 points
       Date   : 2021-06-26 13:56 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.scientificamerican.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.scientificamerican.com)
        
       | datameta wrote:
       | I think perhaps the gravity of the situation concerning all
       | ecosystems could be illustrated effectively if government "open
       | comment" boxes were effectively ddos'd with articles like these
       | from all manner of publications. Major systemic change is
       | necessary from the top down. The individual environmentally
       | conscious contribution, even if widespread, can certainly help
       | but it cannot outstrip the negative pattern of a well organized
       | pervasive attitude that does not take findings like those in the
       | article into account.
        
         | throwanem wrote:
         | Good luck DDOSing /dev/null.
        
         | ianai wrote:
         | Just write your representatives in Congress, the President, and
         | participate in your civic duties. DOS'ing some poor saps inbox
         | isn't it.
         | 
         | Edit-Also be polite. No death threats...
        
           | the8472 wrote:
           | > No death threats...
           | 
           | Carbon footprint reduction is inevitable. Your choice, Mr.
           | Congressman, is whether it will be smaller shoes or fewer
           | feet.
        
           | datameta wrote:
           | Absolutely. Polite discourse is the most effective way. Often
           | it's better to write nothing at all than to write something
           | in anger.
           | 
           | I was modeling my thoughts on the hundreds of thousands of
           | Net Neutrality comments that were received by the FCC a few
           | years ago. That they doctored the perception (using bots)
           | that the proportion of submissions against upholding net
           | neutrality was higher than it really was is another story..
        
         | jfengel wrote:
         | Everyone in the government already has all of the facts. They
         | are not unaware of it, or of the gravity of the situation.
         | 
         | It's just that some of them don't believe it, and were voted in
         | by supporters who don't believe it. They aren't going to turn
         | around to their constituents and say "huh, turns out climate
         | change is real and bad, so I'm going to do the opposite of what
         | I promised when you voted for me." No amount of scholarship
         | will ever change that.
         | 
         | As for what will... search me. It seems to be self-reinforcing
         | at this point. Maybe the steady drumbeat of articles like this
         | will help change the minds of ordinary people, though I can't
         | see how.
        
         | mistrial9 wrote:
         | hm.. bad advice? Panic and fear block intelligence. Public-
         | facing orgs get messaging all the time, by definition, so they
         | are already in some state driven by self-interest,
         | requirements, motivations and ability, to be overly general.
         | 
         | Instigating panic, fear, dread and a host of other human
         | responses, by "agitating" .. is a physical option and really
         | courts disasters of all kinds.
         | 
         | On the other hand, many thousands of reports generated in the
         | last two decades, is also apparently not enough either.
         | 
         | Alert! Aware! .. and encourage, analyze, communicate.
        
           | datameta wrote:
           | Agreed.. My point is not to overwhelm a key figure/government
           | body emotionally but rather highlight that it isn't that
           | every so and so often there is a finding of this nature but
           | rather that they happen _all the time_ and from all sources.
           | So that partisanship cannot be easily used to dismiss the
           | information.
        
         | neom wrote:
         | I thought a good idea might be to get some very very talented
         | ux/ui/illustration folks together with a few people who are
         | well versed in the various aspects of climate change, and take
         | the time to make a very succinct, easy to understand and
         | beautiful microsite that shows the coalescing of all of the
         | aspects of change that result in a crisis. I think if people
         | can see them all together and understand how the positive
         | feedback loops are connected, it would help people think
         | individually about what aspects they could realistically
         | tackle, as well as the magnitude of the problem.
         | 
         | People can very clearly see the system is falling to bits, but
         | I'm not sure most people understand it's actually a group of
         | interconnected systems. I mean, they know, but I don't believe
         | it's easy for people to wrap a mental model around all this. I
         | also think there are still very many people who believe it will
         | not affect them meaningfully within their lifetime.
        
           | datameta wrote:
           | This idea if well executed and spread virally could be
           | _rather_ effective. I have seen how useful a properly put
           | together website has been in helping organize efforts in
           | contacting representatives, increasing voter turnout, and
           | scheduling protests.
        
             | neom wrote:
             | I agree it would need to be very well executed, but there
             | are some strong minds around. You'd need a great domain and
             | really great team, and some press (even if just tweets from
             | people with huge followings).
        
           | doitLP wrote:
           | Please do this. Everything from kelp forests dying to bug
           | populations diasappearing to the unsustainable mining of
           | gravel needs to be displayed in a way that really
           | communicates the breakneck pace at which we're headed for
           | doom. But it needs to be presented in an exquisitely wel-
           | done, bare-facts way that ends with a CTA (unlike for example
           | Kurzgesagt which is just depressing)
           | 
           | I bet a lot of people would like to help for free. Most of us
           | feel helpless most of the time.
        
             | pope_meat wrote:
             | I don't remember the last time I saw a lady bug.
             | 
             | I do remember seeing them all the time 20 years ago.
        
         | ajuc wrote:
         | They already know, it's just that fossil fuel industry sends
         | checks not articles.
        
       | dr_dshiv wrote:
       | I'm really interested in cloud seeding for localized reduction in
       | solar radiation.
       | 
       | This approach works well for oceans...
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marine_cloud_brightening
       | 
       | I suppose that we might start treating the earth like a garden we
       | need to take care of?
        
       | lisper wrote:
       | Why would this be unexpected? Just because desert plants can
       | endure conditions that seem difficult _to us_ doesn 't mean that
       | small changes in the environments that they evolved to survive in
       | should not result in conditions that are difficult for them. The
       | Sahara was a grassy savannah for a while before the last round of
       | climate change [1].
       | 
       | [1] https://www.livescience.com/4180-sahara-desert-lush-
       | populate...
        
         | furgooswft13 wrote:
         | If it's unexpected it's scarier.
        
         | syops wrote:
         | There are people who deny the effects of climate change and/or
         | deny that it is occurring. Melting ice and desert plants not
         | being able to survive in the desert are indications that change
         | is happening and such indications can't be reasonably believed
         | to be a liberal conspiracy.
        
       | saalweachter wrote:
       | I'll believe this is unexpected because I'm not a plant-ologist
       | and don't really have well-calibrated expectations of desert
       | plant response to temperature, but --
       | 
       | Isn't it like a known thing that photosynthesis stops happening
       | at higher temperatures? I've been worried about the impact of
       | days-over-100-degrees on crop production for years.
       | 
       | Is "unexpected" in this headline standing in for "now
       | demonstrated in the wild, counter-intuitive if you don't know
       | that biology is highly sensitive to temperature, expected by
       | people in the field", or if I knew more about desert plant
       | biology, would I be more shocked than I am now?
        
       | pvaldes wrote:
       | Not so unexpected in fact, and more complex than just "desert
       | plants are dying".
       | 
       | ps
        
         | defterGoose wrote:
         | Nothing n, unfortunately
        
       | aurizon wrote:
       | I wonder if people with missile tech will destroy all coal and
       | gas generating plants - even those in foreign countries = the
       | beginning of climate wars. The USA/China/Russia could do this now
       | - if they wanted to? Might be a good movie script in that as
       | well?
        
         | furgooswft13 wrote:
         | lol targeting ICBMs at China and Russia will surely help stop
         | global warming
        
           | fogihujy wrote:
           | Yeah, but I'm not sure a nuclear winter is preferable...
        
             | bruce343434 wrote:
             | To be fair, it would cool things down
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | klyrs wrote:
         | If China wanted to get rid of coal power plants, they'd
         | probably stop building them first.
        
       | lisper wrote:
       | The scariest thing to me about climate change is the rate at
       | which it is happening. We bought a house in the Bay Area 11 years
       | ago. It didn't have air conditioning. The builder said we
       | wouldn't need it. We added a unit anyway and for the first few
       | years we barely used it, maybe one or two weeks out of the year
       | to cool the top floor on exceptionally hot days, which back then
       | was the low 90s.
       | 
       | Since then, 100-plus-degree days have been happening more and
       | more regularly. We're adding a second AC unit because there have
       | been days that the first one just can't keep up. All this in 11
       | years.
       | 
       | This keeps me up at night too:
       | 
       | https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/17/us/earth-trapped-heat-doubled...
       | 
       | There was a time when I was fairly sure that climate change would
       | lead to the collapse of civilization, but there was no way I'd
       | live to see it. Now I'm not so sure about the latter.
       | 
       | [UPDATE] There is also the sobering realization that even if we
       | brought carbon emissions to zero tomorrow (which is obviously not
       | going to happen) even that would not actually solve the problem.
       | We're at 50% over pre-industrial CO2 with no viable way of
       | getting rid of it, so _at best_ it 's going to stay that way for
       | a long, long time.
        
         | darkerside wrote:
         | CO2 stays in the atmosphere for a long time, but things like
         | methane break down much more quickly. In the short term, we'll
         | have better luck by reducing methane as well. Of course we'll
         | still need to cut carbon over the longer term, but it's not as
         | dire as you think.
        
           | lisper wrote:
           | > it's not as dire as you think.
           | 
           | I would like nothing more than for you to be right about
           | this. But I don't think you are. We're at 420PPM CO2 right
           | now. Even if we cut CO2 emissions to zero and eliminated all
           | methane emissions, we'd still be retaining heat at a rate
           | that is more than enough to produce a blue-ocean event [1] in
           | the next decade or two, after which we're probably screwed.
           | 
           | [1] https://glennfay.medium.com/the-blue-ocean-event-will-be-
           | a-t...
        
             | TigeriusKirk wrote:
             | Active carbon removal and other geo-engineering actions are
             | the inevitable path we'll have to go down. The only
             | question from my viewpoint is how much we're going to
             | suffer before we accept that.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > how much we're going to suffer before we accept that
               | 
               | And whether it will even be _possible_ by then to remove
               | enough carbon to make a difference. It 's far from clear
               | that it's even possible now. It took several hundred
               | million years for nature to sequester all that carbon in
               | the first place. It has taken us a mere 300 years to
               | release it, but releasing carbon is one hell of a lot
               | easier than sequestering it. And we're staring down the
               | barrel of a blue ocean event in the next few decades,
               | possibly even the next few years.
        
               | germinalphrase wrote:
               | It feels like a lot of environmentalists are reluctant to
               | acknowledge this as it could further reduce the public
               | will to act. Carbon removal/geo-engineering (if possible)
               | are the silver bullet(s) allowing us to never break our
               | bad habits.
        
               | labster wrote:
               | Of course it sounds like it, but we really need to do all
               | the things. We don't need to take our foot off the
               | accelerator pedal because we have brakes--it sounds
               | really stupid that way.
        
               | germinalphrase wrote:
               | No argument here. Particularly because it isn't even
               | clear that we _can_ scale carbon removal.
        
             | GoodJokes wrote:
             | You just linked to a blog by someone who is not a
             | climatologist. Seek out better resources to understand the
             | timescales and gravity of the situation better. I suggest
             | the carbon brief, realclimate.com, and this super helpful
             | blog on tipping points: https://climatetippingpoints.info/
             | 
             | Not skeptic or denialist sites.
        
         | elbasti wrote:
         | > We're at 50% over pre-industrial CO2 with no viable way of
         | getting rid of it, so at best it's going to stay that way for a
         | long, long time.
         | 
         | It's much worse than this. For a long time the "worst case
         | scenario" was the possibility that we'd unlock positive
         | feedback loops that release methane (80x as "warming" as CO2)
         | that had been long locked in arctic permafrost.
         | 
         | Remember the phrase "runaway climate change"?
         | 
         | Yeah. It happened. Even if bring human carbon emissions to
         | zero, the world will continue to warm.
         | 
         | This is why of the utmost importance to stop fossil fuel
         | emissions NOW... so we can win ourselves some time to maybe,
         | just maybe, figure out clean carbon removal.
        
           | revscat wrote:
           | Won't happen under our current socioeconomic regime. If there
           | is profit to be made, fossil fuels will be sold unless there
           | are drastic changes made to the systems which allow it.
        
           | Sharlin wrote:
           | Note though that the warming was _always_ going to continue
           | even after reducing emissions to zero, because it takes time
           | for a complex system to settle into a new stable state. This
           | is only one of the many effects that make highly nonlinear
           | systems difficult to intuitively understand. The math is
           | clear, though (although many of the myriad feedback loops
           | involved are still poorly understood).
        
           | akomtu wrote:
           | Something doesn't add up. The gov officials have fairly
           | complete data on climate change and yet they don't act. When
           | the coronavirus pandemic was an imminent treat, the gov shut
           | down the economy. Now, when the global warming is supposedly
           | going to wipe out the planet in ten years, the gov acts as if
           | it's not a big deal. It's even going to allow the economy to
           | fully reopen by end of year, which means more needless
           | driving and more emissions.
        
         | mhfhncx wrote:
         | I'm not surprised you're so afraid if you trust CNN to tell you
         | the truth about this. They have admitted that fear sells and
         | they're keeping you up at night on purpose. They've
         | demonstrated, repeatedly[0], their willingness to completely
         | fabricate information in order to draw views and that climate
         | change is the next big thing after COVID to help them recover
         | ratings [1]
         | 
         | Sorry, but you might as well be getting science info from
         | Weekly World News. CNN is projecting a nightmarish fantasy for
         | clicks and views, full stop.
         | 
         | [0] https://taibbi.substack.com/p/the-bombshell-memory-hole-d20
         | 
         | [1] https://youtu.be/Dv8Zy-JwXr4
        
         | Tiktaalik wrote:
         | The place that has seen this biggest, most obvious to human
         | eyes delta is up North. In Canada's arctic, the Inuit are
         | having to adapt rapidly as things that used to be predictable,
         | like when the sea ice is going to melt, are now no longer
         | predictable. They've apparently seen startling changes within
         | just a generation.
         | 
         | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/may/30/canada-inuits-...
        
         | djinnd wrote:
         | There are quite a few highly populated areas in the world where
         | the Air conditioner is on the whole year round.
        
           | lisper wrote:
           | You have missed the point. The problem is not that we have to
           | run the AC more than we used to. The problem is that our
           | situation changed from one where we barely needed AC to one
           | where we now need it regularly in a mere 10 years.
        
             | pengaru wrote:
             | There's some interesting classes by Al Bartlett on youtube
             | where he discusses population growth and the exponential
             | function in general, he was a professor at Boulder, CO.
             | 
             | One of his salient points IIRC was when you're living
             | through an exponential curve that's approaching some crisis
             | threshold, be it population growth leading to civilization
             | collapse, or some resource consumption exhausting its
             | supply, it happens _very_ abruptly because you jump from
             | just halfway to the end, which through a linear lens
             | appears very distant, to at the critical end, in just _a_
             | _single_ doubling period.
        
         | Proven wrote:
         | > [UPDATE] There is also the sobering realization that even if
         | we brought carbon emissions to zero tomorrow (which is
         | obviously not going to happen) even that would not actually
         | solve the problem.
         | 
         | Why are you concerned about doing something about it, then?
         | 
         | > All this in 11 years.
         | 
         | Climate doesn't change in 11 years. More likely you've added
         | 20-30 lbs and a pair of 300W GPUs since then.
        
         | slibhb wrote:
         | > There was a time when I was fairly sure that climate change
         | would lead to the collapse of civilization, but there was no
         | way I'd live to see it. Now I'm not so sure about the latter.
         | 
         | Even if climate change significantly affects our lives, why
         | would it cause civilization to collapse? It seems just as
         | plausible that adverse conditions will increase the necessity
         | of civilization, of strong social bonds and mutal reliance.
         | 
         | It's very interesting to me that, when talking about climate
         | change, we tend to assume everything is negative. Surely there
         | are some upsides (the only one I ever hear about is Arctic
         | shipping routes). But I think we have no good reason to be
         | making claims like "civilization will collapse". This seems
         | like millenarian thinking, people like the idea of living in
         | the end times.
        
           | toomuchtodo wrote:
           | Crop failures, extreme climate changes we cannot mitigate the
           | effects of cost effectively (coastal infra and housing). We
           | depend on things that grow (both plants and animals) to
           | survive ourselves.
           | 
           | I would not bet on this bringing people together, unless it's
           | the very well off ("the haves") against those without who
           | will be exposed to more suffering.
        
             | slibhb wrote:
             | How about huge swathes of land opening up in Canada,
             | Greenland, and Siberia that have massive quantities of
             | untapped natural resources? I'm telling you, we're going to
             | roll with this thing. Bump in the road.
             | 
             | But there's no point in arguing about it. When we all die
             | and civilization hasn't collapsed, we'll all know I'm
             | right.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | I don't think Canadians will welcome a huge wave of
               | refugees that dwarfs their own population with open arms.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | For Greenland to become fertile its ice sheet would have
               | to melt, and that will leave major cities underwater. And
               | climate change is not going to magically stop once that
               | happens. Greenland might be fertile for a little while, a
               | few decades maybe. Then what?
        
               | slibhb wrote:
               | Cities aren't going to submerge overnight. The process is
               | slow enough so that, if necessary, we will have plenty of
               | time to adjust by moving inland, building dikes, and so
               | on.
               | 
               | When you're on your deathbed and civilization hasn't
               | collapsed, I wonder if you'll think of this thread.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | Like I said above, I would like nothing better than to be
               | wrong about this. In fact, I have never wished so
               | desperately to be wrong about something as I have about
               | this. So yes, if civilization outlives me I will
               | definitely think of this thread.
               | 
               | If, 10-20 years from now, there are world-wide food riots
               | because of global crop failures and the entire western US
               | is burning in one gigantic continent-wide forest fire,
               | will you?
        
               | slibhb wrote:
               | Yes, if something like that happens, the people making
               | dire predictions would have been right.
        
               | jghhnbcfg wrote:
               | Good lord, climate fatalism at its finest folks, right
               | here.
               | 
               | I'll tell you what, I'll ask my dad if he remembers the
               | first person in the 1970s who told him the world was
               | going to end in ten years due to global cooling
               | 
               | I remember in the 90s it was the ozone hole that was
               | going to cause us all to burn
               | 
               | When everything is relatively fine -- climate will
               | change, of course, as it always has, and humans will
               | adapt -- I won't think of you, or this thread, because
               | why would I waste my time?
               | 
               | But I'll remember all the fearmongers and doomsayers and
               | chicken littles, more generally
               | 
               | Every generation has them
               | 
               | Read this and calm down
               | https://m.barnesandnoble.com/w/apocalypse-never-michael-
               | shel...
        
               | mkr-hn wrote:
               | I got to struggle to breathe from smoke from a fire 2300
               | miles away and from dust that dimmed the skies from the
               | Sahara on the other side of the planet in the space of
               | one year. This is real.
        
               | CheezeIt wrote:
               | But neither of those events were caused by global
               | warming.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | > as it always has
               | 
               | But that's the thing: it hasn't always. For the last
               | 10,000 years the climate has been relatively stable, and
               | that is the reason that human civilization was able to
               | emerge in the first place. It's hard to build cities if
               | the arable land moves every 10 years.
               | 
               | Yes, every age has its doomsayers. But this time it
               | really is different.
        
               | mkr-hn wrote:
               | The problem isn't strictly long-term rise. The big issue
               | is the threshold where storm surges from hurricanes
               | overwhelm our ability to block it and pump out what gets
               | through. New Orleans is well into recovery from Hurricane
               | Katrina, but the next direct hit will arrive inches
               | higher than 2005 if it happens in the 2020s. How high
               | does a wall need to be to block the storm surge of the
               | monster hurricanes of the coming decades?
        
               | germinalphrase wrote:
               | By natural resources, do you mean fresh water and arable
               | land?
        
       | sabujp wrote:
       | Desert plants as we know them today
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-06-26 23:03 UTC)