[HN Gopher] The End of Marae - my attempt to build the AR cloud
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The End of Marae - my attempt to build the AR cloud
        
       Author : realiswhatyoufe
       Score  : 26 points
       Date   : 2021-06-23 16:04 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (scriber.tech)
 (TXT) w3m dump (scriber.tech)
        
       | goodcjw2 wrote:
       | Properly head-mounted AR technology (ideally in the form of a
       | pair of glasses/sunglasses) can have lots of potentials, but does
       | require science-fiction level of imagination to visualize those
       | use cases.
       | 
       | Unfortunately, this is really hard. Mark Zuckerberg calls it "one
       | of the hardest technical challenges of the decade". There are
       | lots of fundamental technical breakthrough required to make it a
       | reality. In different prototype labs, people are excited to see
       | feasibilities being proved out in individual fronts. But moving
       | _all_ of them into production ready consumer grade hardware is a
       | completely different story.
       | 
       | Give it another 5 years, we might be able to see whether it's
       | indeed possible.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.zdnet.com/article/mark-zuckerberg-calls-ar-
       | glass...
        
         | nonameiguess wrote:
         | Maybe this is just my personal bias against even wearing
         | glasses, but to me, this kind of tech isn't viable as long as
         | it requires a wearable at all. I don't even like wearing a
         | watch. Until the projectors are built into the environment
         | itself, like my walls can directly put holograms into the room
         | with me, I won't want to use something like this.
         | 
         | Or I guess if it's some kind of direct brain implant, though
         | there's no way in hell I'm ever voluntarily implanting a
         | Facebook product.
        
       | user3939382 wrote:
       | I've consistently been 10-15 years ahead of major changes in tech
       | so I'm confident in my instincts here: the future of computing is
       | wearable or implanted, integrated BCI and AR. Whether that's 20,
       | 50, or 100 years off I have no idea.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | smoldesu wrote:
       | > As the next paradigm of human-computer interaction, the
       | emerging AR Cloud will fundamentally change the way we live,
       | play, learn, and work.
       | 
       | Tangent: why is AR so attractive to people?
       | 
       | I've had VR since the first Oculus Quest came out, so I
       | definitely understand the value in a good spatial experience.
       | I've never had the desire for that immersion to lessen so I can
       | start working with holographic oversight. Much like transparent
       | displays, I think the idea of AR is a lot cooler than it will
       | work in practice. It's fitting function to form, which is the
       | wrong way to approach a problem like this.
        
         | babyshake wrote:
         | The killer app will be meetings. Apple knows this.
        
         | rdw wrote:
         | When Google Maps came out in 2004 and revolutionized mapping
         | with the sheer quantity of data presented unbelievably
         | smoothly, there was a similar (though smaller) excitment about
         | "map-based" apps. It seemed like such a big blue ocean had
         | opened and fortunes would be made on the back of new killer
         | apps. I worked on a few prototypes myself and saw many pitches
         | from various maps-based startups.
         | 
         | But pretty much only Yelp was able to succeed. There just
         | aren't a lot of highly-monetizable applications that are
         | primarily map-based. No one knew the limits at the time,
         | though.
         | 
         | I think AR is in kind of the same place. The demos are
         | mindblowing and there's enthusiasm, but there aren't a lot of
         | killer apps with the state of the technology. For location-
         | based apps, they really required a second piece in order to
         | really open up the space: the smartphone. It may be that AR is
         | waiting for some other supporting technologies before it
         | becomes obviously laden with utility.
        
         | psyc wrote:
         | I admit I'm always puzzled by this as well, and can't help
         | feeling (perhaps unfairly) that it's like preferring vinyl.
         | Every VR thread I've ever seen has a lot of "VR is dead because
         | of the resolution and it makes people sick, but AR! AR is
         | endless possibilities!" Like, I think augmenting the world is
         | cool. But going to an imaginary world is much cooler. Maybe
         | it's just that I'm an escapist by nature, and other people are
         | more adult and practical.
        
           | alonmower wrote:
           | AR will replace your phone
           | 
           | VR could replace your TV
        
             | smoldesu wrote:
             | Correction:
             | 
             | VR will replace your TV
             | 
             | AR could replace your phone
        
         | kybernetikos wrote:
         | I think it's because VR can give you super powers in an
         | imaginary world while AR can give you super powers in the real
         | world.
        
           | smoldesu wrote:
           | What experiences does AR enable that are otherwise not
           | possible with VR/traditional displays?
        
             | psyc wrote:
             | Walking around the city and seeing everyone's sins
             | displayed above their heads.
        
             | ve55 wrote:
             | To give a very short answer: getting most people to
             | purchase and commonly use a VR headset is much more
             | difficult than getting them to purchase a light set of
             | glasses that they can wear and use anywhere with ease.
             | There's many more applications as well, but there is absurd
             | potential in it still imo.
        
               | smoldesu wrote:
               | Counterpoint: The Oculus Quest 2 costs $300, and I have
               | yet to see a headset come close to it's level of
               | adoption, let alone it's price. AR will be wildly
               | expensive for the foreseeable future, and by the time
               | we've fully democratized it there will be _some new_
               | computing paradigm right around the corner.
               | 
               | Sure, more people will likely prefer AR to VR in terms of
               | comfort, but you need to manage your expectations. A
               | "light set of glasses" isn't going to come within
               | spitting distance of the resolution, FOV, contrast or
               | brightness of even the earliest VR headsets.
        
             | kybernetikos wrote:
             | That's the wrong way to think about it - they allow you to
             | have experiences in the real world that would otherwise
             | only be available in virtual worlds.
             | 
             | And there are lots of examples:
             | 
             | - seeing the upcoming birthdays/recent messages/interests
             | you have in common etc of people you meet above their heads
             | as you walk around.
             | 
             | - having a map projected onto the sky of the world around
             | you (like you're on a globe inside a globe looking up)
             | 
             | - removing visual clutter, like unwanted adverts
             | 
             | - allowing each user of a house or space to have it
             | decorated the way they like
             | 
             | - having x-ray vision to see things like cables, pipes etc
             | in walls
             | 
             | - seeing historical reconstructions in the same place as
             | the real thing
             | 
             | - visualizing a new item in the real world and manipulate
             | it before you 3d print it
             | 
             | - time-inverted trails - having an inverse trail showing
             | you had to do movements you're trying to learn.
             | 
             | - when trying to build something, seeing the exact places
             | and actions you need to take in the real world
             | 
             | - adding panes of information into the world where
             | otherwise you don't have easy access to the internet. Like
             | having a mobile phone of whatever size you want that hovers
             | next to you.
             | 
             | - leaving virtual objects in locations for friends
             | 
             | - embodying virtual assistants into daemon like creatures
             | 
             | In fact, with well implemented AR (a much harder problem of
             | course than VR), you can have all the same experiences you
             | can have in VR plus versions of those experiences that
             | blend in the real world and environment you are in. It's
             | strictly a superset of VR.
        
               | suifbwish wrote:
               | You left out the INEVITABLE real time deep learning based
               | nudificafion mode where someone can choose whether or not
               | your clothing exists in their reality.
               | 
               | Classically Augmented reality has been just to add things
               | to the visual perception of the world that were not there
               | but with advancements in various geometry manipulative
               | neural networks and processing power creating new things
               | will probably take a back seat to visually changing what
               | is already there.
               | 
               | Also as facial recognition becomes a much more public and
               | available technology we are going to see AR net platforms
               | emerge that allow people to "rate" and "comment" on other
               | people which will be something permanently and publicly
               | associated with their biometric geometry. The potential
               | for offensive and unremovable graffiti and reputation
               | sabotage is extremely high.
               | 
               | Needless to say there are significant and negative real
               | world implications for this and other similar emerging
               | technologies which will cause major social conundrums
               | which have not yet had to be considered.
               | 
               | One issue with these things is the only method for doing
               | anything about it is legislation. AR and VR can be just
               | considered just a significant extension of what we call
               | the human imagination although there is one major
               | difference, this imagination can be shared with anyone
               | whereas ones imagination is available exclusively to the
               | individual.
        
               | germinalphrase wrote:
               | Sure - but some flavor of this objection can be made
               | about most technological advances. The harms will be
               | identified and if the people maintain some level of
               | accountability over the system and society, we will adapt
               | to ameliorate those harms.
        
               | smoldesu wrote:
               | > with well implemented
               | 
               | That's your crux. You can talk a big game about how cool
               | _the concept_ of AR is, but we 're still far off from
               | implementing anything remotely similar to what you've
               | just described.
               | 
               | > It's strictly a superset of VR
               | 
               | Nope, it's the other way around actually. It might
               | logically follow that augmenting reality is easier than
               | virtualization it, but AR technology is only as good as
               | the VR technology it's based on.
        
               | kybernetikos wrote:
               | > we're still far off from implementing anything remotely
               | similar to what you've just described
               | 
               | Absolutely. Well, you can do poor implementations of
               | quite a few of these already but not at all at the level
               | that would make them compelling yet.
               | 
               | But that's not surprising. True AR has all the same
               | challenges as VR plus realtime detection, location,
               | registration, occlusion, lighting... And much stricter
               | constraints on portability, brightness, etc.
               | 
               | But you shouldn't be surprised that something with so
               | much potential is interesting to people.
               | 
               | > augmenting reality is easier than virtualization it
               | 
               | Not at all! It's massively harder. Well, to do real AR
               | (which in my opinion involves actual engagement with the
               | real environment). To do floating HUDs is much less of a
               | challenge, and also much less interesting.
        
         | goodcjw2 wrote:
         | One way to think about AR is that it can do everything your
         | Oculus Quest can do, but in the form of a pair of glasses that
         | you can wear all day (like those prescription glasses that
         | people already wearing).
         | 
         | VR is like the PC you use at home / in office, AR is more like
         | smartphones on the go. There is obviously quite a big technical
         | gap :)
        
           | smoldesu wrote:
           | This "AR" that you're describing doesn't exist though.
           | Current AR-equipped devices don't have anywhere near the FOV
           | or contrast you can find in a basic HMD.
           | 
           | Also, your second analogy is paradoxical. If AR is capable of
           | doing "everything [the] Oculus Quest can do", why does VR
           | even exist today?
           | 
           | I understand the concept of AR, I just want to talk to
           | someone actually involved in the hardware space about what
           | they're doing to move the market forwards.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | _Tangent: why is AR so attractive to people?_
         | 
         | Or, why is the _idea_ of AR so attractive to people? We haven
         | 't seen much AR yet. Magic Leap was faking it. The Microsoft
         | Hololens had some great demos, but was too expensive and not
         | very useful. Google Glass was somewhat useful but socially
         | unacceptable. Pokemon GO was wildly successful but googles are
         | still too expensive for it.
         | 
         | OK, so you can annotate the world. Now what? Games? Customer
         | relationship management? Equipment maintenance guides? Doordash
         | picking guidance?
         | 
         | I have the horrible feeling that most people who wear AR
         | goggles will be wearing them because their employer told them
         | to. The goggles tell them what to do.
         | 
         | (As usual, see "Manna" and "Hyperreality").
        
           | T-A wrote:
           | > The Microsoft Hololens had some great demos, but was too
           | expensive and not very useful
           | 
           | https://www.geekwire.com/2021/microsoft-awarded-army-
           | contrac...
        
           | babyshake wrote:
           | Magic Leap was real. It just kinda sucked.
        
             | jonas21 wrote:
             | The Magic Leap they sold everyone on:
             | 
             | https://youtu.be/watch?v=GbpqwUUfMAQ
             | 
             | The Magic Leap they actually delivered:
             | 
             | https://youtu.be/veSZJQ5_Wmg?t=122
        
         | beebeepka wrote:
         | For me it's virtual screens. Let's have that and see where it
         | takes us.
        
         | germinalphrase wrote:
         | Thirty years ago, you might drive around an unfamiliar city
         | with a friend offering directions as you go. Twenty years ago,
         | you woukd print off turn by turn Mapquest directions and check
         | them occasionally at a stop light. Now, you can have turn by
         | turn directions piped into your ear without any other human
         | assistance, allowing you to do the task at hand easier, safer
         | and more quickly. Don't be distracted by the challenges of the
         | visual HUD, this is absolutely our AR present: overlaying
         | digital tools and information onto our lived experience to make
         | ourselves happier, smarter, more effective, etc.
        
       | bredren wrote:
       | > I don't think I've ever learned, or grown, this much in a 6
       | month period before.
       | 
       | Was this a startup of a personal project? Was much money raised?
       | Post mortem analysis is good though this is quite an exposition
       | for a relatively short lived venture.
        
       ___________________________________________________________________
       (page generated 2021-06-25 23:01 UTC)