[HN Gopher] Ever-increasing home values are a Ponzi scheme
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       Ever-increasing home values are a Ponzi scheme
        
       Author : tolbish
       Score  : 20 points
       Date   : 2021-06-21 22:12 UTC (48 minutes ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (theweek.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (theweek.com)
        
       | BreakfastB0b wrote:
       | Housing can either be affordable, or profitable, not both.
       | Affordable means that the price of a house remains stable
       | relative to inflation or wages. Profitable means it has to grow
       | faster than inflation or wages. Everyone needs somewhere to live,
       | therefore housing should not be profitable. You shouldn't be able
       | to make a tonne of money by just buying a house and sitting on
       | it. Investing in housing should mean improving existing housing
       | or building new housing.
       | 
       | Here in Australia the government is talking about letting young
       | people access our equivalent of their 401k to afford a deposit on
       | a house. Without changing the supply of housing how is this
       | anything other than another attempt from boomers to steal more
       | wealth from their children so they can line their coffins with
       | more gold.
        
         | xwdv wrote:
         | Profitable means we get more and more houses being built.
        
           | BreakfastB0b wrote:
           | You would think so. But once again, how can housing continue
           | to be profitable i.e. grow faster than wages, and people
           | still afford to buy houses? Doesn't it collapse at some
           | point? Isn't that the joke about only economists think that
           | exponential growth can continue forever?
           | 
           | Most of my peers are either completely priced out of the
           | market, or taking on 40yr or interest only loans. It seems
           | like the market is currently a game of chicken of who's
           | willing to sign away more of their life. An interest only
           | loan is literally admitting you can't afford this house and
           | the only hope you ever have of paying it off is if it
           | increases in value without you doing anything.
        
             | xxpor wrote:
             | Profitable by owning and sitting on an asset != Profitable
             | for a builder to buy land and build a house. You can have
             | one without the other.
        
               | BreakfastB0b wrote:
               | Totally agree. The government should have a policy goal
               | of keeping house prices stable relative to inflation. But
               | when multiple generations have locked up most of their
               | wealth into housing, it's unclear how to untangle the
               | whole mess without collapsing the economy.
        
             | maccard wrote:
             | > Most of my peers are either completely priced out of the
             | market, or taking on 40yr or interest only loans.
             | 
             | These interest only are the reason my parents lived in a
             | house 2x what they could afford - they took out an interest
             | only mortgage in 2002, paid less on the mortgage than I was
             | paying in rent for a room in an apartment last year, and
             | sold at a 2.5x gain (to someone in my generation who is now
             | mortgaged to the hilt), and bought a smaller home in cash
             | from the proceeds after retirement. It's insanely unfair
             | that the solution to irresponsible lending to my parents
             | generation is to protect their investments and make sure I
             | can pay back what they won't be able to repay.
        
           | cshokie wrote:
           | If homes are a profit-seeking investment then supply and
           | demand would incentivize lower supply. If new houses cannot
           | be built, but the demand is the same or increasing, then
           | prices must rise. The profit motive directly leads some
           | people to fight against new housing.
        
           | mixmastamyk wrote:
           | Nimbys don't allow it.
        
           | tfehring wrote:
           | Profitable to build != profitable to hold.
        
           | reportingsjr wrote:
           | Except due to insane zoning rules and an ever greater push
           | for exurban housing, which is insanely expensive due to the
           | infrastructure required, we are not getting nearly enough
           | housing.
        
           | nicoburns wrote:
           | The way to make them affordable rather than profitable would
           | be to build many more than are currently being built. As long
           | as the quality is decent, you then drive the prices down
           | through a simple increase in supply.
           | 
           | You probably still need some tweaks to disincentivise use of
           | property as a financial vehicle, but you're 70% there just by
           | building more.
        
             | darepublic wrote:
             | Unless something still manipulates the price, as in the
             | diamond market.
        
       | alisonkisk wrote:
       | Is this payback for the crypto Ponzi scheme posts?
       | 
       | OK, asset appreciation without value creation is a Ponzi scheme.
       | Let's stop rehashing, and move on to novel discussion angles.
        
         | ComputerGuru wrote:
         | I'm going to ignore the first sentence since it's just snark,
         | but in response to your second: if there's a problem that needs
         | to be addressed, surely the first step is acknowledging its
         | existence?
        
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       (page generated 2021-06-21 23:00 UTC)