[HN Gopher] Seizing the Middle: Chess Strategy in Business
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       Seizing the Middle: Chess Strategy in Business
        
       Author : feross
       Score  : 70 points
       Date   : 2021-06-14 13:02 UTC (9 hours ago)
        
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 (TXT) w3m dump (fs.blog)
        
       | GreedCtrl wrote:
       | A bit off topic, but I'd caution against using business tactics
       | in chess.
       | 
       | > While the opportunities Rockefeller capitalized on are unlikely
       | to come about again, they show how chess strategies can translate
       | into business acumen.
       | 
       | India's youngest billionaire Nikhil Kamath played chess when he
       | was younger, and he used his chess background much as this
       | article does to promote his business acumen.
       | 
       | Just yesterday, he played in a charity simul against 5-time world
       | champion Viswanathan Anand. He was the only player to defeat
       | Anand, an obvious sign of computer assistance.
       | 
       | That's what can happen now that computers are better than humans
       | at chess. Maybe one day they will outclass us at business too?
        
         | cout wrote:
         | I agree; business tactics and chess tactics are different
         | worlds.
         | 
         | The big difference between chess and the real world is that in
         | chess you lack resource production: the pieces you have are the
         | pieces you will always have, and no more. This makes the
         | hypermodern strategies viable: let your opponent occupy the
         | middle while you prepare to attack from the flanks. While I am
         | sure there is a business metaphor there waiting to be realized,
         | a game with resource management like Settlers of Catan probably
         | has metaphors that don't break down as easily under scrutiny.
        
         | xwolfi wrote:
         | The difference is that business has no particular win condiion
         | or let's say "end" - the goal of it is in the name itself: to
         | keep busy.
         | 
         | What do you want a computer to do: to sell as many apple as the
         | trees can grow ? To change the way people consume so they start
         | eating berries instead because they're cheaper to grow ? To
         | diversify into building the collection machine and not just the
         | apple sales infrastructure ? To sell to far away outsiders ? To
         | cultivate in more and more places ?
         | 
         | It seems just so arbitrary and tied to human interest that a
         | computer would have to have its own desires to satisfy to start
         | doing "business" and then be so isolated from human desires
         | that we d have no interest in keeping them online.
         | 
         | Or we d have to imagine very clever yet obedient machines that
         | would stick and readapt to our changing desire and assist us,
         | but then are they doing business or we are ?
        
           | kyshoc wrote:
           | James Carse has a theory[0] about this: "There are at least
           | two kinds of games. One could be called finite, the other
           | infinite. A finite game is played for the purpose of winning,
           | an infinite game for the purpose of continuing the play."
           | 
           | [0]: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/189989
        
         | sudhirj wrote:
         | > He was the only player to defeat Anand, an obvious sign of
         | computer assistance.
         | 
         | Ok this is a bit much. This was a celebrities simultaneously
         | against the grandmaster match, and this guy is a serious player
         | who competed when he was young, and likely plays regularly for
         | fun and practice. Given this was an exhibition fundraiser, and
         | the guy had nothing to prove (already runs a very successful
         | brokerage and hedge fund, India's youngest billionaire and all)
         | why make an accusation of cheating?
        
           | andrewzah wrote:
           | There is a considerable gulf between "someone who competed
           | when they were young" and a world champion. Looking at their
           | rankings, Kamath is/was about 2055 and Anand is about -2753-.
           | He is among a handful of players who have managed to peak
           | above 2800. [0]
           | 
           | As to why people cheat, there are a plethora of reasons.
           | Running a brokerage or hedgefund is whatever, nothing really
           | special to anyone. Being able to defeat someone like Anand
           | -is- an incredible feat to have under one's belt. The thrill
           | of dominating and/or getting key victories in a competitive
           | sport far surpasses things like running a successful business
           | or being rich. Money can't get you that. Business acumen
           | can't get you that. Only your personal knowledge and skill
           | can get you that.
           | 
           | [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_chess_players_by_p
           | eak_...
        
           | CrazyStat wrote:
           | He has already publicly admitted and apologized for it [1].
           | 
           | [1] https://www.thehindu.com/sport/other-sports/chess-
           | fundraiser...
        
             | sudhirj wrote:
             | Ah, thanks. Yeah, makes sense. I still don't get how
             | everyone jumped to the conclusion that he was cheating
             | before, though. Is there something so utterly impossible
             | about the situation that make it obvious? Do grandmasters
             | never lose games to non-GM players even when playing
             | multiple people for fun?
        
               | bspammer wrote:
               | > Do grandmasters never lose games to non-GM players even
               | when playing multiple people for fun?
               | 
               | Pretty much, yeah. Especially when they don't make any
               | big mistakes, as was the case here.
        
               | tylerhou wrote:
               | Anand isn't a regular-ol GM; Anand is a former world
               | champion. These super-GMs spend thousands and thousands
               | of hours studying the game. Generally super-GMs don't
               | lose to anyone except other GMs in classical time
               | formats.
               | 
               | If a super-GM does lose, then it's probably because they
               | blundered. That's not what happened -- Anand played well,
               | but Kamath played basically a perfect game with an
               | accuracy of 99%. There are a handful of people on the
               | planet who can do that consistently in classical, and
               | they are all rated 2700+.
        
           | sickygnar wrote:
           | The guy didn't just cheat, he blatantly cheated, using the
           | computer for every move outside of his first move blunder.
           | Then he bragged about winning in the post-game interview.
           | 
           | The guy obviously lied about his chess background, he lost to
           | a scholar's mate (4 move checkmate) in one of his recent
           | games. He probably just said he had a chess background to
           | sound smart. Arrogant narcissist.
        
       | erehweb wrote:
       | Tangentially related, see "The Protracted Game: A Wei-Ch'I
       | Interpretation of Maoist Revolutionary Strategy", which argues
       | that Mao was using Go principles (control the edges) while the
       | Nationalists were playing Chess (aim for the center).
        
         | mechEpleb wrote:
         | I would argue that this is ridiculously reductionist and
         | probably has nothing to do with the actual decision making
         | process on either side.
        
           | andrewzah wrote:
           | I would argue that games like go and chess are so vastly
           | different from real life that it's not useful to make
           | comparisons like this. Sometimes similar high-level
           | strategies can be employed, but I'm certainly not thinking in
           | terms of "controlling the middle" as that doesn't really make
           | sense in real life. One can make that phrase as vague as
           | possible to make it apply to real life, but what benefit does
           | that bring?
        
             | sdenton4 wrote:
             | Well, call me when you're two months into dealing a deal
             | and realize you didn't place a ladder breaker and end up in
             | a completely untenable position.
        
               | andrewzah wrote:
               | I'm not saying that strategy shouldn't be used. Obviously
               | one should have a goal to not act in a way such that in
               | the future their positions will be untenable.
               | 
               | What I'm saying is I don't find it useful to reduce
               | complex real life positions or strategies into specific
               | game terms like "ladder" or "ladder breaker" or "outpost"
               | or whatever.
        
               | sdenton4 wrote:
               | (yeah, totally agree; was quipping about ladder breakers
               | precisely because they're completely irrelevant to any
               | real world scenario.)
        
             | erehweb wrote:
             | The book is much better than my one-sentence summary of it.
             | As a small example, the author notes that Communist forces
             | would often set up bases on the boundary of two warlords'
             | areas, so that they could not be surrounded.
        
               | andrewzah wrote:
               | My point is that given enough contortion or reduction,
               | one can apply any real life strategy to almost any
               | strategy game.
               | 
               | In the first example of controlling the middle vs the
               | edges, well, there are chess openings with the strategy
               | of explicitly giving up the center. A reply in a
               | different chain on this post mentions these, known as
               | hypermodern openings.
               | 
               | It does sound like a good book since I'm a fan of
               | history, chess, and go, so I'll give it a read.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | CalChris wrote:
         | That would make sense. Montgomery similarly advised about
         | China:                 Rule 1, on page 1 of the book of war,
         | is: "Do not march on Moscow". Various people have tried it,
         | Napoleon and Hitler, and it is no good. That is the first rule.
         | I do not know whether your Lordships will know Rule 2 of war.
         | It is: "Do not go fighting with your land armies in China". It
         | is a vast country, with no clearly defined objectives.
         | 
         | He reiterated this advice in the NYTimes during the Vietnam
         | war.
        
         | justicezyx wrote:
         | Mao might be playing Wei Qi, but Jiang definitely is not
         | playing Xiang Qi...
         | 
         | The difference is simply Mao sees a larger China and much
         | better than Jiang. If you look at both men's life experience,
         | you can easily see that Mao won't be nice to intercultural and
         | Jiang will be very harsh to the poor. And in a power struggle,
         | one who effectively mobilize the majority always won.
         | 
         | This by itself will make Mao the winner in the power
         | competition.
         | 
         | As for other aspects, eg, Mao being a better military
         | strategist. It's just a derived results of Mao knows the larger
         | China better than Jiang.
        
       | fedreserved wrote:
       | Texas Holdem translates better for business strategy.
       | 
       | Poker tournaments structure of blinds progressively increasing,
       | mimics inflation and how the value of resource changes over time.
       | 
       | Making decisions based off varying forms of imperfect information
       | that changes over time is a very valuable skill that is the core
       | of poker and business imo.
        
       | bsder wrote:
       | People talk about Chess as if they all play like Grandmasters.
       | 
       | In reality, Chess below Master is a series of okay moves
       | punctuated by complete blunders that your opponent may or may not
       | notice or be smart enough to take advantage of.
       | 
       | The real lesson from Chess for anybody below Master is "He who
       | makes the next to last mistake wins. And this can happen no
       | matter how good you've been the rest of the game."
       | 
       | And while that is _also_ a good business lesson, it is far less
       | comforting.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | e2e4 wrote:
       | Looks like the mobile strategy of Apple and Google.
        
       | Tycho wrote:
       | Hmm, control the middle. What does it mean in chess? Set your
       | pieces out in the middle of the board so as to starve your
       | opponent of opportunities, without knowing or caring what exactly
       | those opportunities are. How does one do this in business? Hiring
       | all the smart people, even if they spend their time
       | unproductively, springs to mind. Sponsoring regulation, so that
       | companies not in your unique position will struggle to establish
       | themselves, is another way, perhaps. Cutting across multiple
       | consumer categories, so that you can move in any direction where
       | a competitor may try to outflank you (eg. Microsoft launching
       | Xbox to compete with Sony), maybe? Or what about pricing -
       | dominate the mid-priced products, avoiding the perils of thin
       | margins at the low end and excessive R&D costs at the top. Or the
       | supply chain - good old fashioned vertical integration, leaving
       | only the broadest, most fungible activities to outside firms. In
       | venture capital, thinking about the power of networks, the
       | ability to connect innovation to expertise to capital, because
       | you have the contacts and the credibility.
       | 
       | It would be useful to think of counter-examples of successful
       | businesses that clearly did _not_ seize the middle. Hard to build
       | analysis on top of abstract interpretation though.
        
       | helloplanets wrote:
       | Don't agree with this writeup at all. It seems like writeups
       | comparing life and chess are heavily biased towards the strategic
       | concepts, when in reality playing the game well is heavily based
       | on grasping tactical concepts, recognizing a certain amount
       | patterns and being able to apply them under pressure. Strategy
       | starts mattering only way later, and is still completely
       | dependent on you not letting the other player catch you with your
       | pants down because of a pattern that slipped your mind.
       | 
       | I'd go as far as to say that applying the opposite of what the
       | writer is implying is more beneficial in most circumstances.
       | Instead of viewing running a business as a contest between
       | businesses for Scarce Resource X and Y, it's probably better to
       | view running a business as a contest of managing the scarce
       | resources within the company itself: Capital, time, amount of
       | great people working with you, etc. Although, even that sells the
       | challenges of running a good business short.
       | 
       | The better you get at chess, the more it can feel like you're
       | trying to grind water out of stone, but persisting until you
       | notice you've progressed after a year. I think that comes closer
       | to the day-to-day experience of running a business.
       | 
       | P.S. This is the best article I've read about chess and life:
       | https://aeon.co/essays/playing-chess-is-an-essential-life-le...
        
       | andrewzah wrote:
       | Chess is a great game for learning strategical thinking, but I
       | don't think it's really useful to try and reduce real life /
       | business strategies into chess terms. Real life is fundamentally
       | different and more complex than the rigid rules of chess.
       | 
       | Chess is also not really special here other than it being a very
       | old, culturally important game. You could swap it out for go and
       | nothing would really change except some strategy
       | metaphors/comparisons. With all strategy games there are general,
       | high-level strategies that players employ. But is it useful to
       | anyone to make empty comparisons like "forward thinking"?
       | 
       | Actually rather than chess, I think it's better to learn strategy
       | through more modern fighting games like Street Fighter III: Third
       | Strike or Super Smash Bros. Melee. These kinds of games are much
       | more reactive; one can see and intuitively understand their
       | mistakes much more easily than through chess position analysis.
       | These games still have very complex strategies going on, but they
       | combine it with mechanical execution skills.
       | 
       | No matter what strategy game it is, I think everyone should
       | experience that in their life; particularly business people. It
       | really is incredible how much these games can teach us.
        
       | kyshoc wrote:
       | While I appreciate the "middle" metaphor, I think it's unwise to
       | generalize business (and real life situations, more broadly) as a
       | chess game -- life doesn't often come with symmetric information
       | and zero-sum stakes. Annie Duke says it better than I can, in her
       | book[0]:
       | 
       | > "Chess is not a game [in a game theory sense]. Chess is a well-
       | defined form of computation. You may not be able to work out the
       | answers, but in theory there must be a solution, a right
       | procedure in any position [...] If you lose at a game of chess,
       | it must be because there were better moves that you didn't make
       | or didn't see."
       | 
       | > "The decisions we make in our lives--in business, saving and
       | spending, health and lifestyle choices, raising our children, and
       | relationships--easily fit von Neumann's definition of 'real
       | games.' They involve uncertainty, risk, and occasional deception
       | [...] Trouble follows when we treat life decisions as if they
       | were chess decisions."
       | 
       | [0]: https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/35957157
        
         | dharmaturtle wrote:
         | As with any metaphor, one can take it too far.
         | 
         | I agree with you that life doesn't come with symmetric
         | information, but to argue that "Chess is a well-defined form of
         | computation" is a bit much. Go/Weiqi is also a computation
         | problem given this argument. What precludes asymmetric info
         | games like poker from being "computation" problems, if one
         | takes a wide enough view (to include the unknowns as the
         | modeled state)? Quantum computing inherently probabilistic.
         | 
         | Your second argument is about zero sum stakes, and I think this
         | criticism applies to virtually all "toy" games we play.
         | 
         | > They involve uncertainty, risk, and occasional deception
         | 
         | As do decisions in chess, because the players aren't perfect
         | computers.
        
           | csa wrote:
           | > Go/Weiqi is also a computation problem given this argument.
           | 
           | I agree with the assessment that it is a computation problem.
           | 
           | As a go player for 25 years, I never thought that I would see
           | a computer consistently beat a strong amateur in my lifetime
           | (with many decades still theoretically left to live). Not
           | only did I see it much sooner than I expected, but AI beats
           | the best pros at an almost 100% win rate.
           | 
           | Within the Go community, there is consternation that a
           | computer can make some moves that humans probably shouldn't
           | make due to the ability of the computer to follow up properly
           | where humans cannot (yet).
           | 
           | This may change over time, but right now the computation part
           | of the go world is much closer to expressing perfect play in
           | a complete information game than humans are.
           | 
           | > What precludes asymmetric info games like poker from being
           | "computation" problems, if one takes a wide enough view (to
           | include the unknowns as the modeled state)?
           | 
           | Also as an avid poker player, I think many aspects of poker
           | are rapidly leaning this direction, even though poker does
           | not have complete information.
           | 
           | I'm not sure how much you know about the current poker scene,
           | but GTO solvers have opened the poker world's collective mind
           | about what "good" play looks like, and the players are riding
           | the tails of the computers in terms of strategic and tactical
           | evolution.
           | 
           | In some formats, like heads up limit hold em, the game has
           | been effectively solved.
           | 
           | Bringing it back to the original topic, I would love to see a
           | GTO version of life. Even if it is hard to implement, it
           | could provide a guide that informs decision making.
           | 
           | I personally don't think I will see it in my lifetime. That
           | said, like Go AI, I hope I'm wrong.
        
         | rcoc wrote:
         | In Dan Carlin's Hardcore History episode about the Nuclear Age,
         | he makes a similar point about chess. The American leaders at
         | that time didn't play chess, they played bridge as it simulated
         | a more dynamic environment with a lot of missing information.
        
         | jvanderbot wrote:
         | "Unwise generalization to business" is the essential
         | contribution of this blog. I've had the same feeling about
         | nearly every post that made its way here.
        
         | sorokod wrote:
         | Zermelo's theorem for chess [1] emphasizes how different chess-
         | like-games are from life.
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zermelo%27s_theorem_(game_theo...
        
         | abnry wrote:
         | As someone else said in a comment, while any metaphor has its
         | limits, I feel that there are many more analogies to make with
         | chess.
         | 
         | As a mediocre chess player who has played too many subpar
         | bullet games, I've begun to recognize patterns. For instance,
         | sometimes my opponent has a good move that they are ignoring,
         | but then I make a bad move that naturally highlights that good
         | move. And then my opponent makes that good move. To me, it
         | seems there should be some good analogies to make in business,
         | where your decision spurs your competitor to make a great
         | decision. I just can't think of any.
         | 
         | Or the idea that chess is about keeping your options as wide
         | open as possible and limiting your opponents options (i.e., to
         | restrict the king). That's one reason you might play for the
         | center. It is certainly why the Queen is more valuable than all
         | the other pieces... she has more squares she can move to.
         | Typically a knight on the edge of the board is inferior to a
         | knight in the center because the edge reduces its 8 maximum
         | moves. IIRC, you can compare point values assigned to each
         | piece with the number moves a piece can make average over all
         | position in an empty chess board and see that the proportions
         | match up. It is also why playing positionally matters. Your
         | opponent could be up a piece but if one of them is trapped, it
         | is almost like they are. That is an example of a un-usable
         | advantage.
         | 
         | Or take simple tactics. Forks are when you have two threats on
         | your opponent and they can't deal with both. It is a lose-lose
         | situation for them. Or a pin is about restricting their
         | movement. Sometimes the pin or fork is subtle, where the fork
         | is between checkmate and capturing a piece.
         | 
         | There is a lot to explore here that goes far beyond "chess
         | requires thinking deeply, chess requires anticipating your
         | opponents moves, etc" that requires the pattern recognition
         | that comes from playing many games.
        
         | phkahler wrote:
         | >> While I appreciate the "middle" metaphor,
         | 
         | You kind of have to use a metaphor to praise monopolist
         | practices ;-)
        
       | its_nikita wrote:
       | > Unsurprisingly, other oil companies had no hope of offering
       | lower or even equivalent rates and still making a profit. If any
       | of them seemed like they might pose a threat, Rockefeller could
       | use his influence over the shipping companies to restrict their
       | ability to transport oil.
       | 
       | The chess analogy is interesting, but I'm not sure it applies to
       | Rockefeller. If anything, his strategy is closer to cheating than
       | actually being good at the game.
        
       | j4yav wrote:
       | Somehow all I can think of here is Business Secrets of the
       | Pharoahs, from the comedy Peep Show, which begins:
       | 
       | > The first thing to note when discussing the business secrets of
       | the Pharaohs is an acknowledgement that their era was so
       | completely different from our own that almost all cultural,
       | political and, particularly, business parallels we draw between
       | the two eras are bound, by their very nature, to be wrong.
       | 
       | > So then, as the critics and the nay sayers and the tall-poppy-
       | chopper-downers ask with their probing questions and their
       | knowing sneers and unfriendly voices: "Why use the Pharaohs as
       | the basis for a business manual?"
       | 
       | > "Well," I would answer, "I think any 'business' that lasted for
       | more than three thousand years, as did that of ancient Egypt, is
       | probably worth studying!" (Even if in a strict, or indeed even
       | vague sense, it wasn't really a business at all but a
       | civilization, with no comparable notion of "business".)
        
         | WJW wrote:
         | There are some strategic elements that are important for both
         | chess and business but they are so incredibly high-level (like
         | "think ahead" and "control vital resources") that it becomes
         | almost a joke. I am reminded of [this
         | article](https://nongaap.substack.com/p/shopify-a-starcraft-
         | inspired-...) which tries to claim a link between starcraft and
         | shopify strategy. Any links presented in the article are
         | present between any two activities involving strategic thinking
         | and so both SC2 and Shopify are completely incidental.
        
           | jsjsbdkj wrote:
           | IME the success of shopify is less tobi being some kind of
           | genius than luck, timing and protectionism from the canadian
           | government. He's very eager to point to specific things he
           | _thinks_ make him successful, but it 's all post-hoc.
           | Ultimately being profitable forgives all manner of sins, just
           | like how google has Ads and consequently can fail 99% of the
           | time but still print money.
        
           | LanceH wrote:
           | While nothing to do with chess strategy, learning the game
           | does provide lessons. Relying on yourself and your analysis.
           | Playing the board and not the player. Playing the player when
           | the board doesn't favor you. Playing solid principles that
           | may not pay off now, but leave open the possibility later.
           | Controlling your thoughts, ego and fear in tense situations.
        
             | beaconstudios wrote:
             | Games are just bounded microcosms of reality, so it would
             | make sense that learning a strategy game would teach you
             | about areas where strategy applies in reality.
        
             | jerf wrote:
             | I think the big lesson chess in particular teaches is the
             | duality of offense and defense. A naive player sees them as
             | different things, a skilled player sees them as a unified
             | whole. This insight applies to plenty of things in real
             | life as well.
             | 
             | It is also something that demonstrably many people don't
             | understand and don't even see as something they should
             | understand, in contrast to "plan ahead" which of course
             | everyone will agree is important, even if they don't do it.
        
               | LanceH wrote:
               | I guess the other big lesson beginners get is that the
               | other person has a plan, too.
               | 
               | Since everyone has all the information available, it
               | lends itself to what you describe -- attack without
               | weakening yourself. Or eventually allow weakness if it
               | reaches victory conditions.
               | 
               | Generally the chess strats/tactics relating to business
               | are more metaphor. "go for their king" may be fine as a
               | metaphor to imply "win it outright". As a strategy,
               | though, it's not possible to just castle in response.
               | Unless you create another metaphor for castling. Keep
               | repeating that and you're just describing your own domain
               | coded into chess terms, with any cross-domain
               | applications being by definition or coincidental.
        
         | maest wrote:
         | Also, the hypermodern chess style actually involves letting the
         | opponent occupy the centre and then applying pressure from long
         | range with pieces, looking for weaknesses in the opponent's
         | defence.
         | 
         | https://www.chess.com/terms/hypermodern-chess
        
           | llimllib wrote:
           | (where "hypermodern" means "early 20th century")
        
           | zsmi wrote:
           | And it's way harder to pull off than just good old fashioned,
           | cease the center and bludgeon the opponent. Especially
           | against a competent opponent.
        
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