[HN Gopher] The Electrification of Everything
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       The Electrification of Everything
        
       Author : elorant
       Score  : 53 points
       Date   : 2021-06-12 19:40 UTC (2 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | Maximus9000 wrote:
       | I need to update my home hot water heater. I'd like a tankless
       | instant hot water heater. Despite wanting to do my part for
       | climate change, all indications point me towards getting as
       | natural gas unit instead of electric.
        
         | lastofthemojito wrote:
         | I went from a traditional (tank) gas water heater to a tankless
         | gas water heater in my townhouse. I don't have any complaints
         | about the performance of the water heater itself, but the
         | process was a pain and I have had complaints from my neighbors
         | about the gas smell when the water heater kicks on.
         | 
         | Your mileage will almost certainly vary, but in my case the
         | upgrade to a tankless water heater meant that the max gas draw
         | for my house (if the water heater, furnace, stove and gas
         | fireplace were all firing at once) would exceed the existing
         | gas service to my house. So I had to get the gas company out to
         | upgrade my service, which meant having the existing utility
         | lines located multiple times (as the first markings washed away
         | by the time the gas company came out), and I had bits of my
         | yard dug up, etc. I also had to have county inspection folks
         | come visit, and coordinate that with the plumber, etc.
         | 
         | The exhaust for my water heater is right next to the border
         | with my neighbor's townhouse, and they've got a deck at right
         | about that level. And it turns out when a tankless water heater
         | kicks on, the gas comes on for a second and then it ignites,
         | pushing a small amount of unburned gas out the exhaust. My
         | neighbors occasionally catch a whiff of that, and I've had to
         | have the installer visit and get on the phone with the water
         | heater manufacturer (Rinnai) to reassure them that everything
         | is safe and working correctly.
         | 
         | All told, if I knew then what I know now, I would have just
         | gotten a new tank water heater - and I'm sure the entire
         | process would have been over and done in a day, with no damage
         | to the lawn or skittish neighbors. The guy who installed my
         | water heater was a nice guy but I would have been happier
         | meeting him once rather than a half dozen times.
         | 
         | But if you wouldn't have to have upgrade your gas service or
         | aren't worried about the exhaust location - by all means, join
         | me in having infinite hot water!
        
           | jhallenworld wrote:
           | Interesting, some of those older tank-less systems only
           | kicked in if the flow rate was high enough. I used to have a
           | really old tank-less system from the 1940s, it was just a
           | heat exchanger in my oil heating steam boiler. This was
           | massively inefficient, but it did provide infinite hot
           | water..
           | 
           | My only complaint with my new (2013) tank gas hot water, is
           | that the tank already cracked and had to be replaced. It was
           | not cheap: $2200. This is a rip-off, but contractors are
           | expensive. I think the new tank-less systems are supposed to
           | be more reliable than traditional tank heaters.
        
         | conk wrote:
         | I'm curious why your preference is for tankless?
        
           | Maximus9000 wrote:
           | * Saves space in utility room
           | 
           | * uses less energy
           | 
           | * never run out of hot water
           | 
           | * units are longer lasting
        
             | conk wrote:
             | I've had tankless and now have a rheem heat pump water
             | heater. The rheem uses far less energy (~60 kWh/mo) then
             | the instant water heater. Lifespan I'm not so sure about. I
             | know depending on the water quality they can have issues.
             | I've seen many tank water heaters still working after 30
             | years with little to no service.
             | 
             | Tankless are smaller and it's true they won't run out of
             | hot water so they do have that going for them.
        
             | ip26 wrote:
             | An idea for you - consider an electric tanked with a drain
             | water heat recovery unit. Even lower energy usage than a
             | tankless, and while you can still run out of hot water the
             | DWHR significantly accelerates the re-heating. The DWHR
             | unit should last basically forever.
             | 
             | This is what I did, been very happy. Total cost wasn't more
             | than $1,600 (DIY). Tankless is a nice idea but was just too
             | complicated to ever pay for itself as a retrofit.
        
         | jjtheblunt wrote:
         | I propose that you're improving things with tankless,
         | regardless of heating technology.
         | 
         | We just did the same on our 2014 house, which had a builder
         | supplied 50gallon natural gas water heater. Those continually
         | burn natural gas in varying amounts to keep the tank's water
         | heated.
         | 
         | In contrast, the tankless natural gas is a massive win just wrt
         | natural gas, as it's only running when hot water flow is
         | required.
        
           | djrogers wrote:
           | > Those continually burn natural gas
           | 
           | Not really - they're very well insulated, so they do a
           | burn/coast/burn cycle where they are off far more than they
           | are on.
           | 
           | That said - I'm a big fan of tankless, however in a big
           | family with typical loads, the savings in gas alone aren't as
           | much as you'd think.
        
       | analyte123 wrote:
       | I know that authors don't write headlines, but this article
       | should be headlined, "Touted for Climate Change Benefits, Energy
       | Electrification Has Stalled and Poses New Risks and Costs". Most
       | of their electric energy ratio graphs are flat for a twenty year
       | period. While there have been major improvements in batteries and
       | some improvements in efficiency, real electricity prices have not
       | decreased in the same twenty years. The author correctly points
       | out that electrification makes homes far more vulnerable to
       | service disruption unless everybody shells out $10k+ for solar
       | and batteries. Even then, you're going to need more Powerwalls
       | than most people will ever buy to have hot water, transportation,
       | and unspoiled food after a hurricane.
        
       | stuaxo wrote:
       | Every election in UK the last few years labour say they will
       | electrify the rest of our railways, the Tories say they will too.
       | The Tories get in and then don't do it.
        
         | Xophmeister wrote:
         | This is probably not an HN-approved comment, but if we can find
         | a party donor or friend of a cabinet minister who also happens
         | to be in the railway industry, I'm sure we'd see a new golden
         | age of rail in the UK!
        
       | eyelovewe wrote:
       | We should note that the WSJ is owned by Rupert Murdoch.
        
       | 11235813213455 wrote:
       | I don't really understand electric bikes, on a flat surface,
       | riding a bike is effortless for me (I don't really try to go
       | fast, 20km/h is good enough), if it goes slightly uphill then
       | it's a good opportunity to do a bit of exercise, but really, you
       | can ride bikes with very little (own) energy, and that's super
       | healthy, no engines, thanks
       | 
       | I think bicyles will become a primary transport in the next
       | decades, electric or not
        
         | samatman wrote:
         | If I were inclined to use the modern 'gotchas' rhetorically, I
         | would call this comment ableist.
         | 
         | Instead I'll just point out that being young(ish), (reasonably)
         | healthy, and having only _slightly_ uphill to worry about, are
         | all luxuries.
         | 
         | Electric bikes make bicycling accessible to many more people,
         | and their embodied and operating energies are quite modest.
         | 
         | Best of all, they don't take away your ability to ride a
         | pushbike! Or brag about it on the Internet.
        
         | globular-toast wrote:
         | I've been a cyclist almost my entire life. It's been my main
         | method of transport for several years and I do it as a sport. I
         | don't plan to own an electric bike because I take pride in
         | being able to move my own weight around but I'll take anything
         | that gets more people on bikes. Cars are a scourge and need to
         | be severely limited. Electric bikes lower the barriers to entry
         | for many people and I'd much rather be overtaken by an electric
         | bike than a monstrous car.
        
         | psgibbs wrote:
         | Range goes way up - electrification can turn a 10+ mile commute
         | from something intense (where you need a shower when you
         | arrive) into something manageable.
         | 
         | It allows bikes to be a substitute for far more things that
         | you'd otherwise use a different mode of transportation for.
        
           | plorg wrote:
           | Put slightly differently, electric bikes (and scooters for
           | that matter) make those transportation forms accessible to a
           | much larger number of people.
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | mikestew wrote:
         | Former Cat 2 bicycle racer here, "Cat 2" meaning I was in
         | damned good shape, and I still am even if old age has slowed me
         | a bit. That climb up next to highway 520 from downtown Redmond
         | to the Microsoft campus? Yeah, if I had a hankering to do so,
         | I'd drop most folks going up that hill.
         | 
         | And yet I own an electric bike, and love the thing. Because I
         | can go up that hill in my work clothes, and not show up a
         | dripping, sweating, stinking mess. I can go down the hill from
         | the house and get supper without having to don the clown outfit
         | and the special shoes. Just wheel the bike out the garage and
         | go with whatever I have on. Back up the hill to get home, give
         | that electric motor an extra kick if I'm feeling lazy, sorted.
         | And that's for an old ex-racer who is in probably better shape
         | than 90% of his peers. Imagine the worlds that open for the
         | elderly, overweight, or other "differently abled".
         | 
         | Bicycles have had over 100 years to "become primary transport"
         | and unless one lives in the Netherlands, it obviously isn't
         | going to happen. Stick a battery and electric motor on one,
         | though, and suddenly one's practical range and power band is
         | extended enough to make it a viable transportation alternative
         | for not just the fully-abled and in-shape, but for nearly
         | everyone.
        
         | aidenn0 wrote:
         | I own a road bike and an e-bike. On level ground I'm much
         | faster on my road bike (there's a 20mph(32km/h) governor on the
         | e-bike, and it's heavier and has much more wind resistance.
         | 
         | However, I can haul over 100lbs of cargo and/or kids on the
         | back of my e-bike, and can show up to work ready to go. Given
         | that the ride to work includes climbs, and I would need to
         | shower, the e-bike gets me there substantially faster. If I
         | need to pick up a kid from an afternoon activity that is
         | downtown, I can do so on my e-bike (I live about 13km from
         | downtown, which my teenagers can do, but is a rather long ride
         | for my younger kids to do).
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | e-bikes dramatically increase the number of people who can bike
         | commute: you go faster for the same effort so the range is
         | _much_ better, especially if you have hills; more people can
         | avoid needing to take a shower when they arrive, which is great
         | since so many employers do not provide facilities; and it means
         | that people who need to carry kids and/or cargo can do so
         | without sweating it. It also opens up quality of life
         | improvements: you can trade a little extra weight for durable
         | tires, more comfortable rides, BIG lights for night safety,
         | etc.
         | 
         | According to my logs, I go about the same speed and heart rate
         | on my cargo e-bike with my son and our gear commuting. The
         | difference is that it saves enough time and helps with one
         | notorious hill enough that I do it every day year round except
         | for the worst weather whereas before I used to skip a few days
         | a week -- and I say that as a fairly fit cyclist who has ridden
         | centuries at gun-timed speeds in the low 20s, so we're leaving
         | out a LOT of bike commuters if we're saying that's inadequate.
         | 
         | I see e-bikes as a transformative technology for cities. If we
         | want to stop the death, pollution, and quality-of-life impact
         | of cars we should be rolling out bike infrastructure as quickly
         | as possible -- it's the cheapest, most flexible option we have.
         | (Buses are second: more accessible, all-weather capable, but
         | less flexible)
         | 
         | Since we got ebikes, we've averaged 2,000-2,500 miles per year
         | on bike and sometimes go a couple months without using our car,
         | which we are likely not going to replace when it dies.
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.is/hdCjz
        
       | esturk wrote:
       | I think the stove is the only appliance that I will refuse to
       | electrify. Cooking on a electric stove is just not the same,
       | especially if you love to cook.
        
         | Mediterraneo10 wrote:
         | Some jurisdictions forbid new installations of gas stoves, so
         | over time society might not have much of a choice.
        
         | batrat wrote:
         | Same. I have gas central heating and a gas stove. During the
         | winter electricity is not 100% and is nice to have heating
         | (with ups) or to make a hot tea.
        
         | 0xffff2 wrote:
         | I love to cook (even did it professionally for a while), and I
         | just don't get this complaint. If you have good (i.e. thick)
         | pans, response times aren't instant no matter what your heat
         | source. I find the difference between gas and electric to be
         | basically unnoticeable.
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | What do you use for cooking traditionally done on curved
           | cookware?
        
             | 0xffff2 wrote:
             | The only thing that comes to mind when you say curved
             | cookware is a wok. I've never owned a home stove, electric
             | or gas, that got hot enough for proper wok stir frying so I
             | have a standalone 14,000 BTU propane burner for that.
        
           | samatman wrote:
           | The contrary of this is that, for any given pan, pan + coil
           | latency will be worse than pan + instant response, be that
           | gas or induction.
           | 
           | I find the difference between instant responding heat sources
           | and radiant coils to be very noticeable, particularly with
           | thin pans and delicate cooking, so: eggs, in particular.
        
             | 0xffff2 wrote:
             | Of course that's technically true. My point is that the
             | difference in latency is completely unnoticeable for me.
             | The adjustment is so minor if you have good technique and
             | good pans it's not worth mentioning.
        
         | hannob wrote:
         | It is hardly plausible that a gas grid will be kept operating
         | just for cooking. Generating the gas probably would even be
         | feasible, as the amounts are likely small enough that they
         | could be met with biomethane generated from waste, but
         | operating the grid is unlikely.
        
           | innocenat wrote:
           | There are gas tanks.
        
             | hannob wrote:
             | Ok I guess I underestimated the amount of effort people are
             | willing to put into nostalgia while cooking...
        
               | chihuahua wrote:
               | Many houses in remote locations (in the U.S.) have large
               | propane tanks outside the house, which are refilled
               | periodically by a truck. So people are already doing this
               | for reasons other than nostalgia.
        
               | handrous wrote:
               | Everyone with a propane grill--which is, like, every
               | other house around here--already has a propane tank. You
               | can go swap them out with full tanks at many grocery
               | stores, when they're empty. It's pretty cheap--I'm not
               | sure, but I wouldn't _bet_ on electric being cheaper to
               | cook with than propane. There are conversion kits for gas
               | stoves. And yes, you 're right, that's exactly what
               | anyone out in the country with a gas stove already does
               | (as you note, they've got those big propane tanks outside
               | the house that get refilled every so often).
               | 
               | [EDIT] natural gas (not propane) is _definitely_ cheaper
               | to heat with, here, than electric. All the HVAC guys don
               | 't even recommend heat pumps to supplement the furnace.
               | They recommend putting the money toward higher-efficiency
               | AC and gas furnace instead. They say they're good on
               | paper but more expensive in practice, in our climate
               | (Midwest). Outright electric heating is _crazy_ expensive
               | (I 've had it, with a very new furnace even, and it was
               | terrible, was paying a high premium for mediocre
               | heating).
        
               | mikestew wrote:
               | Effort? How about necessity? You think they were going to
               | run gas lines to our house in Bumphuck, Indiana that sat
               | 200m off the road (the road which, I guarantee you, did
               | not have a gas line buried next to it)?
               | 
               | Of course no one would be running gas lines, that's why
               | we had a big LP tank to play on when I was a kid:
               | 
               | https://www.homeimprovementbase.com/3-easy-steps-to-
               | prepping...
        
         | turbinerneiter wrote:
         | I never used a gas stove, so I can't compare, but I moved from
         | a regular electric to an induction stove and it's a billion
         | times better. I think it's quite close to a gas stove. Maybe
         | someone who actually used both can chime in.
        
           | z2 wrote:
           | I mostly use gas. I loved my induction cooktop and its
           | precise and fast heat control when I had it, but the only
           | thing I didn't like was that it required all pots to be flat
           | (I have round woks with only a tiny flat area) and everything
           | had to be compatible with induction, so no clay or aluminum.
           | 
           | Even on the traditional gas vs electric debate, the heating
           | power of a gas cooktop isn't guaranteed -- smaller BTU rated
           | stoves take forever to heat with their dinky flames. I once
           | had one that maxed out at around 350F when using a big pan.
        
           | odiroot wrote:
           | I find making nice and runny scrambled eggs on electricity
           | really hard to do. Actually induction is even harder with the
           | pulses of energy dissipating so quickly.
        
             | pat2man wrote:
             | You just need a thicker pan.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | Kenji's method for creamy scrambled eggs works great on
             | induction:
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CXTnq7srJRs
        
           | WalterBright wrote:
           | I love gas, too, but there's a problem. I installed a CO2
           | meter in my office. It goes off whenever the stove is used.
           | Going from 600ppm to over a 1000ppm, if I forget to turn on
           | the exhaust fan.
        
           | gxqoz wrote:
           | I've seen several articles recently highlighting problems
           | with gas stoves. Some of these are environmental critiques--
           | gas needs to be retired to deal with climate change. Another
           | critique is around indoor air quality:
           | 
           | "On the air-quality front, at least, the evidence against gas
           | stoves is damning. Although cooking food on any stove
           | produces particulate pollutants, burning gas produces
           | nitrogen dioxide, or NO2,, and sometimes also carbon
           | monoxide, according to Brett Singer, a scientist at the
           | Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory who studies indoor air
           | quality. Brief exposures to air with high concentrations of
           | NO2 can lead to coughing and wheezing for people with asthma
           | or other respiratory issues, and prolonged exposure to the
           | gas can contribute to the development of those conditions,
           | according to the EPA. Homes with gas stoves can contain
           | approximately 50 to 400 percent higher concentrations of NO2
           | than homes with electric stoves, often resulting in levels of
           | indoor air pollution that would be illegal outdoors,
           | according to a recent report by the Rocky Mountain Institute,
           | a sustainability think tank. "NO2 is invisible and odorless,
           | which is one of the reasons it's gone so unnoticed," Brady
           | Seals, a lead author on the report, says."
           | 
           | https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/10/gas-
           | stov...
        
             | analyte123 wrote:
             | Indoor air pollution is only a serious problem for unvented
             | gas stoves. Current building codes require venting for gas
             | stoves and any gas stove installed in the 21st century will
             | have a vent.
        
               | kingnothing wrote:
               | Many (most?) vents do not vent outdoors; they are
               | attached to the microwave and simply move hot air from
               | below the microwave to above it. It's still a major
               | problem.
        
               | andiareso wrote:
               | Source? In Minnesota at least, I've lived in 5 houses
               | between the years 80s to 2010s that all had external
               | venting with gas stove tops (no remodels). Our new house
               | we are building also is required to have external venting
               | due to code. I know states have individual requirements,
               | but in Minnesota it is required to exhaust to external
               | air.
               | 
               | https://up.codes/viewer/minnesota/mn-mechanical-
               | code-2015/ch...
               | 
               | [EDIT] Code is from 2015 so at least since then.
        
               | lozenge wrote:
               | People don't always use the vent.
        
               | cwkoss wrote:
               | Vents should turn on automatically while the burner is
               | ignited and for some amount of time after.
        
               | eigenhombre wrote:
               | I personally have never seen this happen on any gas stove
               | I've been around (US Midwest mostly).
        
               | majormajor wrote:
               | That would be nice, and maybe brand-new places are doing
               | that, but across 10+ apartments with gas stoves I've
               | rented in the past 15-odd years, none of them have done
               | that.
        
               | pat2man wrote:
               | People don't even know they are supposed to use the vent.
        
             | underbluewaters wrote:
             | All indoor cooking requires venting outdoors to be safe.
             | 
             | The air quality concerns over gas stoves are a disingenuous
             | argument to push for change for climate mitigation reasons.
             | Most pollution from cooking is related to burning food not
             | fuel, and electric burners make it far easier to burn food.
             | 
             | Rather than pushing think tank pieces environmental groups
             | should push the industry to create induction ranges that
             | are 1) cheaper and 2) don't create high frequency noise
             | pollution. Current technology has a lot of positive aspects
             | but the high-pitch buzzing is a deal breaker.
        
               | sparrc wrote:
               | Are you sure about that? If I boil water in my kitchen on
               | my gas stove the CO2 and VOC levels in our living area
               | nearly triple within 15 minutes of using the stove
               | without burning any food.
               | 
               | If I use the electric kettle there's obviously zero
               | change in air quality.
        
           | handrous wrote:
           | I've looked into induction, but:
           | 
           | 1) It seems like you have to spend a lot to approach even a
           | cheap gas stove, as far as cooking quality; and
           | 
           | 2) Even on (say) Reddit threads full of people posting about
           | how great they are, the same people comment a lot about how
           | careful they have to be with the cooktop or how many times
           | they've cracked and ruined(!!!) theirs and had to replace it.
        
           | KineticLensman wrote:
           | I've also used gas, electric (briefly, years ago) and now
           | induction. Induction is superb: very precisely controllable
           | for everything from long slow simmer to nuking. The flat
           | surfaces are much easier to keep extremely clean and also
           | serve as extra space for putting stuff down when a given ring
           | isn't in use. The only sense in which I preferred the old gas
           | system was the controls themselves which were rotary dials
           | rather than long-press surfaces. But I'm used to that now.
        
           | kian wrote:
           | I've used both. Induction stoves are magical, and I also love
           | gas. If you were going to electrify, go induction and you
           | might even enjoy the fact that many things get to temperature
           | faster.
        
           | Frenchgeek wrote:
           | You have more fine control over the heat with gas, but the
           | timer in my cheap induction plate did save my bacon a few
           | times...
        
             | mustafa_pasi wrote:
             | Yes that is true. I wish my induction stove allowed more
             | fine tuning of the temperature as well.
        
               | dependsontheq wrote:
               | That's the difference between cheap and expensive
               | induction... I don't need a Bain Marie because I can
               | control the temperature that fine.
        
               | chihuahua wrote:
               | That could be useful for tempering chocolate. Have you
               | tried this?
        
               | dependsontheq wrote:
               | Yes and it works fine, here is a weird Electrolux
               | marketing photo https://www.reviewed.com/ovens/features/i
               | nduction-101-better...
               | 
               | As weird as that looks I'm quite sure I could do that at
               | home.
        
           | mountainboy wrote:
           | Induction stoves are the highest EMF polluting device in a
           | typical household. In particular they emit a large magnetic
           | field.
           | 
           | source: https://emfcaution.com/home-appliances-emf-
           | readings/#1_Induc...
           | 
           | You can do what you want, but I'll stick with gas and a vent
           | fan, thanks.
        
             | throw0101a wrote:
             | > _Induction stoves are the highest EMF polluting device in
             | a typical household. In particular they emit a large
             | magnetic field._
             | 
             | And? You say this like the problem with this is obvious /
             | self-evident.
             | 
             | (Feel free to get technical: I have an EE.)
             | 
             | The author of your source:
             | 
             | > _My interest in the topic of EMF radiation is two-fold:_
             | 
             | > _I have studied Information Science and worked with
             | router communication, Wi-Fi network, and fiber optics
             | communication during the last 5 years. So I consider myself
             | well-educated on parts of the technical aspects of the
             | problem._
             | 
             | > _I am married to a wonderful girl who is hyper-sensitive.
             | She can literally feel high levels of EMF radiation on her
             | skin when she is near strong Wi-Fi signals or other sources
             | of electromagnetic fields like induction stoves._
             | 
             | * https://emfcaution.com/about-us/
        
               | IkmoIkmo wrote:
               | And to note, no evidence in double blind tests: https://e
               | n.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_hypersensitivi...
        
           | Swizec wrote:
           | I have used gas, fire, electric, and modern electric (the
           | glass kind). No induction yet.
           | 
           | Modern electric is best for consistency and control. Gas is
           | best for fast heat. (wood) Fire is amazing for smores, great
           | for grilling if you have the time to turn it into a radiant
           | heat source.
           | 
           | Old electric (metal plates) sucks and is terrible.
        
           | globular-toast wrote:
           | It's not close to a gas stove. Not by a long shot. It's just
           | slightly better than normal electric because it doesn't have
           | as much residual heat in the ring. The best thing induction
           | hobs do is boil water, but it's still about half as quick as
           | my kettle.
        
         | djrogers wrote:
         | I hope you live someplace that doesn't plan on eliminating
         | them. My town is currently planning to change the permitting
         | laws so that every kitchen/home remodel will require the
         | removal of gas cooktops and ovens. There's a big outcry from
         | those aware of it, but most people don't even know it's
         | happening.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | yongjik wrote:
         | We have a new gas cooktop - we also looked up about the
         | electric ones, but since the existing one was gas, we didn't
         | know how much more it would cost to add wires across the house.
         | It's pretty good and there are a few things you can't do with
         | electric (like roasting a sheet of seaweed), but in general I
         | think they're more or less comparable.
         | 
         | One problem with gas is that so much heat is lost to the rising
         | hot air - in addition to inefficiency, it makes all the pot
         | handles burning hot, so I always need to have mittens ready.
         | Never had the problem when I had electric.
        
           | Symbiote wrote:
           | Are you using small pans on the larger burners?
        
           | globular-toast wrote:
           | > it makes all the pot handles burning hot
           | 
           | Never had that problem with gas. Not once.
        
         | anonporridge wrote:
         | Hydrogen might be an option. Also for heating as a near drop in
         | replacement for natural gas, although not without problems.
        
         | jhallenworld wrote:
         | Electric stove is also safer around kids and elderly..
         | 
         | I have gas stove, hot water, dryers and heating. The hot water
         | and heating were upgraded to gas fairly recently, from oil (I
         | live in New England, there are a lot of legacy heating systems-
         | oil was actually an upgrade in the 1940s from the original coal
         | heat). There is strong incentive to do this because oil was
         | costing me $3800 / year back when oil hit $5 a gallon, whereas
         | gas costs $700 / year. This upgrade costs $14000 (includeing
         | installation of forced air vents, central A/C and gas water
         | heat tank). The previous upgrade from coal to oil was about
         | reducing waste and increasing convenience. With coal, you had
         | to deal with ash waste and stoking.
         | 
         | A dual-stage electric heat pump would in theory work and have
         | comparable operating cost, but the install cost was like
         | $30000, had questionable reliability and few contractors even
         | knew about it. Geothermal would also work, but my land is tiny
         | and the cost would have been something like $60000. There was
         | even a Honda generator home co-generation plant option
         | available, but again, expensive and no contractors.
         | 
         | What would you do? BTW, my largest utility bill now is actually
         | water, because we are paying for the Boston harbor clean-up in
         | my sewage bill. I'm tempted to illegally use rain water for the
         | toilets... A rooftop solar system is popular around here, but
         | it's not worth it based on my tiny electric bill.
         | 
         | We have to get off of fossil fuels, but it's definitely going
         | to take a government mandate backed with financial incentives
         | to get people to switch.
        
           | ip26 wrote:
           | It seems like induction could happen by itself in the next
           | decade or two - the experience is really good now - but I
           | agree, it seems like government action may be needed to get
           | things like air source heat pumps rolling. As you note, many
           | contractors don't even know anything about them - there's a
           | vicious cycle where they are expensive so they are uncommon &
           | unfamiliar, which makes them expensive.
        
           | justaguy88 wrote:
           | > use rain water for the toilets
           | 
           | I'm curious about why that's not allowed
        
             | jhallenworld wrote:
             | They meter the sewage by the amount of water you use, so
             | using an un-metered water source would short-change them.
             | You do have the option of getting a separate water meter
             | for water you use for gardening, to avoid the sewage bill
             | for water you don't send down the drain.
        
         | globular-toast wrote:
         | I've used all types of electric hob (that I'm aware of)
         | hotplates, ceramic and induction, and they are all awful.
         | Honestly I think the only people who can deal with them do
         | nothing more than heat up tins of soup on them.
        
         | innocenat wrote:
         | Or you cook Chinese. Cooking Chinese food on induction is so
         | painful.
        
           | pat2man wrote:
           | You could get a separate induction wok burner.
        
         | mustafa_pasi wrote:
         | I grew up cooking on a gas stove, and have since gotten used to
         | electric and induction as I started renting. Electric (with a
         | heating element) is truly horrible. You have to constantly move
         | the pan off the heating element when you want to reduce the
         | heat. Induction, is however, very responsive and I don't really
         | notice a difference between it and gas.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | We'll probably still need natural gas for heating for a few more
       | decades. But it's pretty clear that everything that moves on
       | wheels is going electric.
        
         | acdha wrote:
         | This very much depends on where you live. We just did an all-
         | electric conversion in the DC area and the cost works out to be
         | ~$50/month more in the coldest winter months for our single-
         | family home (also paying $0.01/KWh more for wind/solar than
         | coal power). That's obviously not free but it's completely
         | manageable in terms of home expenses, and the variable heat
         | pump's efficiency saves on cooling as well as being notably
         | better for humidity and temperature swings because it'll run
         | more frequently at the lower levels rather than the cool-to-
         | full-blast cycle of our old gas heater. Obviously, this
         | approach is less viable the further north you go as you spend
         | more time in the lower end of the efficiency curves but there
         | are a _lot_ of people living in areas where it's basically
         | trivial to do now.
         | 
         | If I set policy, I'd have subsidies for the upfront costs
         | (maybe a base credit with 0% loans?) and especially consider
         | things to push geothermal installs which are expensive up front
         | but might be worth it long-term. We didn't want to deal with
         | the extra hassle but I have been wondering whether we should
         | have done that since it'd save in the summer, too.
        
         | Robotbeat wrote:
         | Nah. It's pretty easy to electrify heating, too. A ground
         | source heat pump or even a _good_ (not mediocre) air source
         | heat pump can reduce the energy cost of heating with
         | electricity to the same as gas.
        
           | boulos wrote:
           | Yeah, depending on your climate, a heat pump can have a
           | Coefficient of Performance [1] of like 3.5. If you don't take
           | this into account and just take "natural gas in therms =>
           | kWh" it often seems like a heat pump would be a large
           | increase. Divide by 3 and it's suddenly much better :).
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coefficient_of_performance
        
             | sbradford26 wrote:
             | Also ground source heat pumps can have COPs in the 4-4.5
             | range and also keep that performance through a wide
             | temperature range unlike air source heat pumps. Sadly air
             | source heat pumps COP really start to drop around 0F even
             | with the new hyper heat models. Given that I would still
             | probably prefer an air source heat pump over using heating
             | oil or propane.
        
               | pitaj wrote:
               | Yeah the reason they stay in the higher range is because
               | they're pumping from a source of higher temperature in
               | the first place. They're also more effective at air
               | conditioning because they're pumping into a cooler
               | medium.
        
           | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
           | As someone who lives in a climate that pretty reliably sees
           | -40C and a week of the mid -30's ever year I think that the
           | only option is a ground source heat pump - I can't see an air
           | heat pump putting out 80,000 BTUs when it is at its least
           | efficient.
           | 
           | I wonder how that works for a city - is the idea that
           | everyone drills their own 15 foot hole? Our frost can reach
           | down to ~8 feet.
        
             | sbradford26 wrote:
             | The solutions I have seen for cities would be
             | community/public ground loops. Piping would run similar to
             | potable water but would return to a centralized location
             | where they would have large wells. This would be
             | impractical for suburban/rural environments but denser
             | cities it would most likely work.
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | Pretty standard in Nordic countries. The source of heat
               | is real question, but there are some options like burning
               | garbage, or waste heat from factories, data centres and
               | so on.
        
               | sbradford26 wrote:
               | The source could also simply be the ground. With a heat
               | pump the water doesn't have to be hot to provide heat to
               | a building. The difference with the system Nordic
               | countries have is that they provide hot water to
               | residences which is directly used for heating.
        
       | Robotbeat wrote:
       | > * More of the energy we use will come from the electric socket.
       | And we aren't ready.*
       | 
       | I don't get this argument that increasing electricity generation
       | is going to be particularly hard. From 1950 to 1959, the US more
       | than doubled electricity generation.
       | 
       | The article says by 2050 we'll need about double current
       | electricity production. That's three times as long! From 1950 to
       | 1973, just 23 years, electricity production increased by over
       | 450%.
       | 
       | People trying to make it sound like this will be unprecedentedly
       | hard either forgot about the time when America used to grow
       | electricity quickly, or they're pessimistic about modern
       | America's ability to build anything big any more.
        
         | WalterBright wrote:
         | > modern America's ability to build anything big any more.
         | 
         | The first transcontinental railroad took 6 years to 1,900
         | miles. All the grading, track laying, and bridge construction
         | was done _by muscle_. Black powder was used for the tunnels,
         | but the holes to put the power in were bored by hand.
         | 
         | In contrast, Seattle Transit will take 30 years to build 22
         | miles of track, with modern construction equipment, and that's
         | in the remote possibility they'll be on schedule.
         | 
         | Seattle used to have rail networks. The right-of-ways are still
         | there, but Sound Transit very carefully avoids using them.
         | Nobody is ever able to explain why. Some even still have
         | rusting rail on them, while the ST crews are blasting new right
         | of way a block over.
        
           | IkmoIkmo wrote:
           | Which Seattle transit of 22 miles? The Line T took 3 years to
           | construct, Line 1 is 22 miles but it's already built, it took
           | 6 years of construction. Indeed it took longer to plan, but
           | we're talking building in a major metropolitan area, not
           | empty land.
           | 
           | > All the grading, track laying, and bridge construction was
           | done by muscle.
           | 
           | It's both an argument to applaud efforts of the past, as well
           | as criticise the nature of the past. I certainly wouldn't
           | want to be a labourer in 1865, when life expectancy in the US
           | was less than half (37) of today's 78 or so. It's not all
           | labour standards of course, but it certainly must have played
           | a role.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | > empty land
             | 
             | Boring through two mountain ranges, crossing many rivers
             | (including the Mississippi). Endless bridges for ravines,
             | creeks, and rivers. Lots of snow sheds, the longest was 29
             | miles, using 29,000,000 board feet of lumber.
             | 
             | Done with muscle.
        
           | coryrc wrote:
           | Because they had a government mandate. ST continually must
           | renegotiate with every level of local government. This could
           | all be sidestepped by a state law, but this is just another
           | cost of FPTP voting.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | > Because they had a government mandate.
             | 
             | It wasn't quite that simple. It was a giant project, and
             | there was the usual squirrel fire drill one sees with any
             | large government project where everyone has their hand out
             | for bribes and corruption.
        
           | Hypx_ wrote:
           | You should be aware of the death toll for the construction of
           | the first transcontinental railroad. It's not something we
           | can legally replicate.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | Life was generally more dangerous and harder those days,
             | and medical practice was terrible. Horses, for example,
             | regularly killed people in those days (more than cars do),
             | and their use is not the romantic image we have of them
             | today.
             | 
             | If you can show that the railroad was built on blood, I'd
             | be interested.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | Exactly. It was a high dollar construction project. If
               | anything it was safer than a mundane bottom dollar "cut
               | whatever corners we need to be the lowest bidder"
               | project. Everything was just that much more dangerous
               | then.
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | Workers also flocked to those railway jobs, because they
               | were better than their other options.
        
           | weaksauce wrote:
           | yeah i'm sure we could have those breakneck speed railway
           | construction in the middle of the open, unihabited plain for
           | the majority of it and then for the incredibly dangerous
           | stuff we could send in the marginalized at the time
           | chinese/irish workers to handle unstable dynamite paid half
           | that of other workers and ignoring any and all safety
           | regulations and building codes of today.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | They used black powder, dynamite only became available
             | towards the end.
             | 
             | You have good points, but consider it ran TWO THOUSAND
             | MILES, not 22, and still took only 10% of the time. You say
             | "open plain", but try driving it some time. It had to go
             | through two mountain ranges, for example.
             | 
             | The workers came because they got better pay than anywhere
             | else. This includes the Chinese and Irish. It was not built
             | by conscripts.
        
           | bullfightonmars wrote:
           | The build out of the Sound Transit light rail is taking 30
           | years for the following reasons:
           | 
           | 1. ST only has the funds to build out a small % of the
           | project at any one time. The work has to be staged because
           | they can't take out all the $ at once.
           | 
           | 2. Project managing the build out of the whole thing at once
           | would require a much larger organization, which would be more
           | expensive
           | 
           | 3. Building the whole thing at once would require a much
           | large workforce and much more equipment, which would be more
           | expensive.
           | 
           | 4. Staging construction gives them the time to work out the
           | details of the next phase while working on the current phase.
        
             | WalterBright wrote:
             | The railroad wasn't built all at once, either. It was two
             | teams, one going east, the other west. The companies were
             | paid as work progressed, they did not have access to all
             | the funds in advance. They didn't even know the route to be
             | taken, they had survey crews working ahead of the
             | construction, marking the best route.
             | 
             | If you don't think they had a much larger logistics
             | problem, consider the problems with supplying the crews
             | with food, water, clothing, rails, ties, horses, wagons,
             | _everything_ they need, from a thousand miles away.
             | 
             | The most important thing, though, was the companies were
             | paid by the mile. The faster they built, the more money
             | they made, because that would push the meeting point
             | further away. They had _ENORMOUS_ incentive to move fast.
             | And it worked.
             | 
             | ST, however, has no incentive whatsoever to move things
             | along. They have every incentive to delay, invent problems,
             | all so they can go back and demand more money.
             | 
             | At a company I used to work for, they hired a team of old
             | software engineers to write a piece of software for a good
             | customer. It took them 3 months, and arrived on time and
             | under budget. Want to know the secret? They had a huge
             | bonus for being on time (I think it was ten grand apiece),
             | which would shrink away for every day late.
             | 
             | I asked if that was what motivated them to be on time, and
             | they all denied it with "we're professionals". I openly
             | laughed at that.
             | 
             | It's amazing what happens when the incentives are aligned
             | with the desired results. We saw that last year when
             | vaccine developers wanted 18 months to develop a vaccine,
             | and Trump gave them a big financial incentive to get it
             | done before the end of the year. Later came the usual
             | denials that these incentives motivated them in any way :-)
        
               | WalterBright wrote:
               | P.S. That small group of old programmers put to bed the
               | notion that old programmers aren't any good. These guys
               | did their work competently, with no drama, no
               | complaining, none of the usual sideshows you see with
               | younger workers. They knew their goal, and quietly and
               | professionally set about achieving it. They delivered it
               | on time, the customer was happy. And got paid very well.
        
         | xenocyon wrote:
         | It's important to remember that electricity isn't an energy
         | source, it's an energy medium. This seems trivial, but seems to
         | be a blind spot for people who, for instance, try to set up
         | comparison between electricity and fossil fuels. The comparison
         | doesn't make sense when one is an energy source and the other
         | merely a medium.
         | 
         | Generating electricity is a bit of a misnomer, because it's
         | more about repackaging energy than creating it. Again, this is
         | trivial but easy to lose sight of. The important question is:
         | what's the energy _source_?
        
           | dheera wrote:
           | Install solar on everyone's roofs. Subsidize it with money
           | from property taxes. Make it mandatory for owners of rented
           | buildings, and mandatory for businesses. That alone will
           | easily meet all our projected energy requirements for quite a
           | while.
        
             | djrogers wrote:
             | > Make it mandatory for owners of rented buildings, and
             | mandatory for businesses.
             | 
             | So my grandmother, who gets a large part of her retirement
             | income from a couple of $5-600/mo rental homes she owns
             | will have to shell out 10-20k each to keep doing that? On
             | what planet does that make sense?
        
               | dheera wrote:
               | Subsidize it 100% for her and low income rental owners
               | then.
               | 
               | For the high income armchair landlords, impose a solar
               | tax and fund solar installations for everyone else.
               | 
               | I want to think about how to make stuff possible, not
               | excuses about why we can't do it. This kind of excuse-
               | making attitude is why the US is falling behind in
               | climate efforts.
        
               | Scoundreller wrote:
               | Shouldn't need to subsidize it. The idea is that your $x
               | PV install will generate enough income to make it a
               | worthwhile investment.
        
               | baremetal wrote:
               | they have to use the whole climate change narrative as a
               | reason to push renewables, because it doesn't make
               | economic sense.
        
             | only_as_i_fall wrote:
             | Then we have a huge surplus of energy during the day and a
             | huge deficit at night. What then?
        
               | dheera wrote:
               | Send it back into the grid. Charge cars. Feed industries
               | that need daytime power. Pay the owners back for it, or
               | give them free night-time electricity in returns. Heat up
               | some high heat capacity goo, or hell even water, and use
               | that to heat your apartment during cold nights in desert
               | weather.
               | 
               | If you still have surplus after all that, mine bitcoin
               | and use it to fund battery research, environmental
               | initiatives, fund education, fund healthcare.
               | 
               | Surpluses are never a problem.
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | Free night-time electricity from where? You need to
               | generate it from somewhere or store it. It just doesn't
               | magically appear...
               | 
               | Solar in large scale will be fun. Essentially at peak
               | production it will have zero price or potentially
               | negative price... And then during night you need to
               | generate it from somewhere and pay premium... I wonder
               | would it be actually cheaper soon not to have solar and
               | just get it for free during day and then pay same during
               | dark times...
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | How much energy do you think would be required to air
               | source sequester all of carbon we've emitted into the
               | atmosphere over the last 100 years? I don't believe we
               | have any shortage of demand for electricity, and loads
               | will be structured to accommodate variable generation
               | (this is typically referred to as demand response).
        
               | robbrown451 wrote:
               | "If you still have surplus after all that, mine bitcoin
               | and use it to fund"
               | 
               | Or maybe use it to power factories that make hundred
               | dollar bills?
               | 
               | Sorry, but Bitcoin does not create a net increase in
               | value for all the energy dumped into it. As you described
               | it, it is simply an elaborate way to waste resources.
        
               | dheera wrote:
               | Don't mine Bitcoin then, run GPU farms and rent them out
               | to AI researchers.
               | 
               | Point is, surplus isn't really an issue.
        
               | only_as_i_fall wrote:
               | This is basically a pipe dream unless people radically
               | change the way they consume power.
               | 
               | Peak energy consumption is typically around dusk, so
               | driven primarily by home consumption not industry.
               | Convince people not to use air conditioners after 4pm and
               | maybe we would be able to match supply to demand.
               | 
               | Moreover, even if we all started sitting in our hot dark
               | houses after work we'd still have an extremely variable
               | supply which would mean more robust infrastructure to
               | transmit less overall power.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | Hence solar, which generates until sunset, paired with ~4
               | hours of storage, which carries the grid through peak
               | evening load until most folks are off to bed and grid
               | load declines rapidly.
               | 
               | https://www.energy.gov/eere/articles/confronting-duck-
               | curve-... (https://www.energy.gov/sites/default/files/sty
               | les/full_artic... for this illustrated; batteries replace
               | the natural gas ramp)
               | 
               | https://youtu.be/P_d0x8uG6kE
        
               | only_as_i_fall wrote:
               | And then it's a rainy day and everybody stays home from
               | work because there's no power? Or we spin up a bunch of
               | dirty natural gas?
               | 
               | This also doesn't address the seasonal changes in supply.
               | We're realistically talking about creating energy
               | infrastructure (and then maintaining it) that ulaverages
               | maybe 20% capacity.
               | 
               | I just feel like solar proponents like to completely
               | ignore the very real unsolved issues because
               | solar+batteries is tidy if you don't think too much about
               | it.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | robbrown451 wrote:
               | Lower the price of electricity when there is a surplus,
               | and people and industry will figure out a way to use it,
               | including charging batteries.
        
             | nemosaltat wrote:
             | As of Jan 1, 2020 California has come very close to these
             | requirements. Most new construction residences (with a few
             | exceptions) must have enough solar generation equipment to
             | meet 100% of the buildings electrical needs.
        
             | eldaisfish wrote:
             | lol no it won't. This is a horrible oversimplification.
             | Solar panels can only offset some energy requirements for a
             | limited time in certain climates. Even if you were to
             | install batteries in every home, the cost is monumental,
             | battery supply is limited and you lose the economy of
             | scale.
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | I don't think the person you are replying to had a good
               | plan, but solar definitely could offset the energy
               | consumed by cars. The average car will only consume
               | ~12KWh per day. Even a small 3-4KW system can do that.
               | 
               | Yes, its an oversimplification, but in a world where the
               | problem is all the electric cars, you also have rolling
               | battery buffers available whenever you want them.
               | 
               | We already use hot water heaters and air conditioners in
               | a similar way. Peak shaving with people's home charging
               | setups wouldn't be hard to add.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | In normal times, my electric car is almost never at home
               | when the sun is shining on my solar panels.
        
               | toomuchtodo wrote:
               | It's the future actually.
               | 
               | https://www.tesla.com/en_au/support/energy/savpp-faqs
               | (South Australia Virtual Power Plant FAQs)
               | 
               | https://www.utilitydive.com/news/teslas-australian-
               | virtual-p... (Tesla's Australian virtual power plant
               | propped up grid during coal outage)
               | 
               | > Once complete, the VPP will include 50,000 houses
               | fitted with 5 kW rooftop solar systems and 13.5 kWh Tesla
               | batteries. Together, they will be capable of delivering
               | up to 250 MW of solar power and 650 MWh of energy
               | storage.
               | 
               | > So far, less than 1,000 homes have been completed.
               | Still, the aggregated storage was able to make a
               | difference.
               | 
               | With regards to Australian rooftop solar potential, it's
               | estimated at almost 179GW, roughly a bit more than 3.5x
               | total current Australian generation capacity.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | What's the ratio on a GWhr/year basis? 3.5x the peak
               | power seems like it could easily be less on a total
               | energy basis.
               | 
               | Looking here, it seems like 1 GWp in Australia can yield
               | around 1500GWh/year. A conventional plant running just 20
               | hours per day yields 7300 Wh/Wp.
               | 
               | https://www.solarchoice.net.au/blog/how-much-energy-will-
               | my-...
        
               | dheera wrote:
               | If they had controlled COVID early enough the economic
               | losses could have quite possibly allowed for everyone to
               | have solar already.
        
             | gregshap wrote:
             | Will it? Certainly in my part of the country most
             | structures cannot go off-grid on solar alone, even with
             | significant storage. Hard to make it up on volume.
        
         | hannob wrote:
         | Well, we will need to increase electricity generation while at
         | the same time replacing existing fossil fuel generation. So
         | that adds to the challenge.
         | 
         | Not saying this is impossible, but it surely is a challenge.
        
           | Robotbeat wrote:
           | 40% of our electricity is clean. So even if we need to more
           | that double electricity while making all the existing
           | electricity clean, the growth rate is still only a factor of
           | 5 over 29 years compared to the factor of 5.5 we grew from
           | 1950 to 1973.
        
         | endymi0n wrote:
         | After all, it's not even that hard or costly in comparison.
         | 
         | Total expected lifetime cost of the F-35 program [1]: 1.5T$
         | 
         | Expected cost of shifting the US to 100% renewables [2]: 4.5T$
         | (note these estimates are probably at least double that of the
         | real costs in light of the rapidly dropping deployment costs
         | since)
         | 
         | Environmental cost of not doing it: Projected at 1.5T$ for the
         | US by 2050, so it's almost self financing.
         | 
         | This is not even about serious economic restraint, it's
         | literally just about having a frickin' fighter or not.
         | 
         | Note the Apollo program was a bargain compared to both at just
         | 280B$...
         | 
         | "We choose to go to the Moon...We choose to go to the Moon in
         | this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy,
         | but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to
         | organize and measure the best of our energies and skills,
         | because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept,
         | one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win, and
         | the others, too."
         | 
         | [1] https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/f35-fighter-jet-
         | pe... [2] https://e360.yale.edu/digest/shifting-u-s-
         | to-100-percent-ren...
        
         | eldaisfish wrote:
         | Generating electrical energy isn't difficult. Distributing it
         | is. Balancing variable generation against variable demand is
         | even more difficult.
         | 
         | What you've forgotten here is that doubling or tripling the
         | carrying capacity of electrical infrastructure isn't a trivial
         | task. Remember that in the 50s, electrical energy was generated
         | at large sites like the Hoover dam or the James Bay project in
         | Quebec. It was then distributed out to houses that didn't have
         | many high capacity electrical appliances.
         | 
         | Today, all that has changed with dishwashers, electric dryers
         | and now EVs slowly becoming standard. You are making it seem
         | like these infrastructure upgrades can be magicked into
         | existence without decades of investment, planning and effort.
         | 
         | The article is right - no country is ready for the sudden
         | change. Watch as EVs go from a rich person's toy to the
         | mainstream and the electrical infrastructure keeps collapsing
         | dealing with the sustained surge in demand.
        
           | bryanlarsen wrote:
           | Infrastructure is sized for peak power usage, so for those
           | early evening times when somebody might have their air
           | conditioner, range and clothes dryer running simultaneously.
           | 
           | Electrification will significantly increase energy usage
           | (kWh), but it has a much smaller impact on peak power (kW).
           | Electric cars charge at night, electric heat pumps replace
           | air conditioners, et cetera.
           | 
           | Also, infrastructure was designed for rising demand. For
           | infrastructure was built in the 60s the planners would say
           | "demand is doubling every decade, so if we want our
           | infrastructure to last 100 years..."
           | 
           | Sure, there will be some places that don't have adequate
           | infrastructure, but it will be a small fraction.
        
             | eldaisfish wrote:
             | I don't think you have a good handle on how the
             | distribution system is sized. Single, large loads like EVs
             | at 10-30 kW were on nobody's radar even as recently as the
             | 2010s. yes, infrastructure was designed for rising demand
             | but not the sudden addition of 7 kW+ of capacity in
             | multiple homes.
             | 
             | A typical EV charger draws anywhere from 7 kW to 25 kW.
             | That is the total connected load of more than one typical
             | North American house. And typical pole-mounted transformers
             | are around 50 -200 kVA. Two EVs added to the regular mix is
             | all it takes to upset the balance.
        
             | Scoundreller wrote:
             | And just like the internet, the 'generation' is getting
             | closer and closer to the customer. As netflix installs
             | appliances in my region, we're also generating electricity
             | at the rooftop or regional cogen systems.
             | 
             | That parked electric car may very well back-feed into the
             | grid to shave the peaks of demand.
             | 
             | That clothes dryer might run 'slow' until it's peak pricing
             | time, same with EV charging.
             | 
             | My 'smart' thermostat already does it for HVAC. Everything
             | else will too.
        
           | throw0101a wrote:
           | > _What you 've forgotten here is that doubling or tripling
           | the carrying capacity of electrical infrastructure isn't a
           | trivial task._
           | 
           | This has been studied recently, and the supposedly numbers
           | aren't crazy:
           | 
           | > _The increase in transmission needs as renewable
           | electricity supply grows, for all 80%-by-2050 renewable
           | electricity scenarios, result in an average annual projected
           | transmission and interconnection investment that is within
           | the recent historical range for total investor-owned utility
           | transmission expenditures in the United States (i.e., $2
           | billion /yr to $9 billion/yr from 1995 through 2008)
           | (Pfeifenberger et al. 2009)._
           | 
           | > _New transmission in the high renewable electricity
           | scenarios was found to be concentrated in the middle and
           | southwestern regions of the United States, mainly to access
           | the high-quality wind and solar resources in those regions
           | and to deliver generation from those resources to load
           | centers._
           | 
           | * https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/52409-ES.pdf
           | 
           | * https://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re-futures.html
           | 
           | See "Volume 4: Bulk Electric Power Systems: Operations and
           | Transmission Planning":
           | 
           | * https://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/52409-4.pdf
           | 
           | December 2020 study from Princeton, "Net-Zero America" by
           | 2050:
           | 
           | * https://www.princeton.edu/news/2020/12/15/big-affordable-
           | eff...
           | 
           | * https://environmenthalfcentury.princeton.edu/
           | 
           | There are cost estimates for various scenarios: some or zero
           | natgas, some or zero nuclear, mostly or all renewable.
           | 
           | Summary news report of the study:
           | 
           | * https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/mar/15/race-to-
           | zero...
        
             | eldaisfish wrote:
             | The NREL report and most of what you posted focuses on
             | transmission.
             | 
             | What i'm referring to is the expansion capacity of
             | distribution grids to suddenly accommodate large amounts of
             | power from EVs.
             | 
             | Simply posting a lot of links isn't usually a good
             | strategy.
        
           | davedx wrote:
           | Pure unsubstantiated FUD.
           | 
           | The national grid in the UK has done tons of preparation -
           | read about their Dynamic Containment program for example -
           | but it's much easier to just wave your hands and claim "we
           | aren't ready, it's too hard".
           | 
           | This is such a typical FUD article from the climate change
           | denying WSJ. Boring and predictable
        
         | anonporridge wrote:
         | > or they're pessimistic about modern America's ability to
         | build anything big any more.
         | 
         | This wouldn't be an entirely unfounded concern.
        
           | Robotbeat wrote:
           | Yeah, I was throwing the author a bone, there. Unfortunately,
           | with scare articles like this, it's somewhat of a self
           | fulfilling prophecy. We need articles talking about how it's
           | relatively easy given historical capabilities, but we need
           | actual action.
        
             | asdff wrote:
             | Too bad the nature of politics has changed. We need another
             | FDR and WPA. Too many politicans favor crafting lucrative
             | public contracts to their cabal of friends than crafting a
             | productive public works project. There is no job security
             | in that.
             | 
             | Another big issue is the cost to run. In order to be a
             | decent candidate, you need to buy national advertising,
             | which is owned by a handful of companies, which would
             | prefer certain candidates who would provide them with
             | profitable legislation.
             | 
             | The current crop is rotten and the mechanisms we have to
             | get a new one are coopted by these entrenched private
             | interest groups who actively fight to ensure their
             | profitable status quo doesn't change, and only does if a
             | profitable angle has been already conceived. Maybe this is
             | the American Way.
        
               | simplicio wrote:
               | I disagree. The FDR era featured a lot _more_ public
               | corruption and cronyism then currently exists. Indeed, I
               | suspect there 's some trade-off between anti-corruption
               | and the ability to get things built, as layers of checks,
               | hearings, certifications, etc. end up making it much
               | harder and more time consuming to build anything.
        
             | anonporridge wrote:
             | True that. Setting expectations and believing something is
             | possible is an underrated part of the process to get there.
             | 
             | Pessimism leads to inaction.
        
       | ant6n wrote:
       | > The idea is being pushed by several groups with a vested
       | interest in seeing it happen--most notably, environmentalists and
       | the tech industry.
       | 
       | Those environmentalists are just waiting to collect those
       | dividends on a saved planet, while everybody else gets shafted.
       | 
       | > But in some sense, consumers have already made the choice to
       | move toward at least the "electrification of a lot more things,"
       | if not everything. That's because our smartphones and computers
       | and all the other devices that attach to them require electric
       | power. So electrification is happening, whether we've made a
       | conscious decision to electrify or not.
       | 
       | Yeah, let's go back to the good old times of gas-powered
       | computers and smartphones!
        
       | asdff wrote:
       | Moving to an apartment with a gas stove and gas heat has probably
       | saved me thousands of dollars in utility bills. Electric heat is
       | so expensive and seems so wasteful, especially when my winter gas
       | bill is like $18 a month (gets into the 40s-50s so not terribly
       | cold, but used daily in winter).
        
         | hoppyhoppy2 wrote:
         | Electric heat pumps use less electricity than electric
         | resistance heating, especially in a climate like yours that
         | does not get truly frigid temps. As a side benefit they also
         | offer efficient cooling during hot weather.
        
           | aidenn0 wrote:
           | Yeah, I live in a mild climate and my previous house was in-
           | ceiling electric resistance heating. We mostly just bundled
           | up, but just for a lark, I set all the thermostats to 65 for
           | the month of January to see how much it would cost. It was a
           | bit over $1000.
           | 
           | We had the warmest attic on the block though, I'm sure.
        
           | ip26 wrote:
           | In the case of your parent comment, where winter temps don't
           | go below 40-50, they don't even need a fancy heat pump, just
           | a regular A/C with a reversing valve, which are not much more
           | expensive.
        
           | djrogers wrote:
           | They still cost more in many places than gas heaters.
        
             | throw0101a wrote:
             | Yes, there's a ROI period. It's a matter of pay now or pay
             | later (over time).
             | 
             | Obligatory _Technology Connections_ video:
             | 
             | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7J52mDjZzto
        
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