[HN Gopher] Robinhood and Didi to Kick Off a Hot IPO Summer
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Robinhood and Didi to Kick Off a Hot IPO Summer
        
       Author : JumpCrisscross
       Score  : 40 points
       Date   : 2021-06-11 08:22 UTC (14 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.wsj.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.wsj.com)
        
       | flefto wrote:
       | Just a reminder that robinhood prevented people buying certain
       | stocks while allowing them to sell, causing many people to lose
       | money, but supporting the short selling hedge funds, whilst
       | claiming to be "investment for the people".
       | 
       | Possibly they are rushing to IPO before facing court.
       | 
       | I would neither buy shares IN Robinhood nor would I buy shares
       | using a Robinhood account.
        
         | Traster wrote:
         | Is there any actual evidence this is true beyond just internet
         | accusations?
        
           | ruairispain wrote:
           | There is evidence, was involved in it. Someone else took a
           | screenshot. https://i.redd.it/86xuz0p7w2e61.jpg
           | 
           | RH is a front for organised crime, selling data to Citadel so
           | the can front run retailers trades. Hope to see Senate action
           | on it at some point.
        
             | manigandham wrote:
             | Front-running is already illegal and nobody cares about
             | doing it for a bunch of small retail traders. Also buying
             | stock requires funds to clear for 2 days while selling
             | doesn't, that's why buying was restricted but selling
             | wasn't.
             | 
             | Whether Robinhood should have had more capital or how those
             | margin requirements were handled is a serious question but
             | that's entirely separate than these accusations which seem
             | to be made by people who have no idea how the system
             | actually works.
        
             | Traster wrote:
             | That's not evidence that RH was:
             | 
             | > supporting the short selling hedge funds
             | 
             | Just to be clear: Robinhood claims that they prevented
             | buying certain stocks because of increase collateral
             | requirements by DTCC due to high volatility. Do you have
             | any _evidence_ that 's untrue. Let's establish that before
             | we move on to the claim that Citadel front-runs retail
             | flow.
        
               | Miner49er wrote:
               | From my understanding, the reason the DTCC raised
               | collaterals so heavily was mostly due to the risk on the
               | short side. So they were protecting the hedge funds by
               | protecting themselves, and it carried on to Robinhood. So
               | Robinhood didn't really have a choice, but they still
               | were protecting the shorts in the end.
        
               | vkou wrote:
               | And that's what happens when you play financial games you
               | don't understand.
               | 
               | If your strategy for driving a short squeeze, or a pump-
               | and-dump does not take into account counterparty risk,
               | you are going to get taken to the cleaners. When you
               | making money causes the brokerage you are using to be
               | _unable_ to execute that trade, this is 100% your fault.
               | 
               | As the saying goes, don't invest in financial instruments
               | you don't understand. Entering a long position in a
               | volatile, high-volume stock through a discount brokerage
               | was a financial instrument that most of /wsb did not
               | understand, and it blew up in its face.
        
             | PaywallBuster wrote:
             | Merely speculation that that was done to favor their
             | partner other than something else.
        
               | imdsm wrote:
               | What is not speculation is that they restricted the
               | buying of stocks while not restricting the selling. The
               | rest, though it may be speculation, has enough
               | circumstantial evidence to allow most regular folks to
               | make up their mind.
               | 
               | The people who will invest in the IPO aren't going to be
               | the people who lost money due to RH locking the
               | purchasing of stocks and stopping the price from sky
               | rocketing.
               | 
               | But in terms of a customer base, in terms of a company,
               | RH are dust.
               | 
               | https://www.trustpilot.com/review/robinhood.com
        
               | manigandham wrote:
               | Robinhood has added millions of new accounts and the
               | price of GME recently reached the same heights this past
               | week for anyone that was still holding losses. A bunch of
               | people gambling money isn't going to affect the company.
        
               | jasode wrote:
               | _> What is not speculation is that they restricted the
               | buying of stocks while not restricting the selling. _
               | 
               | Yes but RH didn't have the billions of $$$ deposited at
               | the clearing house for their trades to be honored. Buying
               | stock to _settle a few days later_ requires collateral
               | that RH didn 't have.
               | 
               | It may help to read through the answers:
               | https://money.stackexchange.com/questions/136272/why-
               | would-c...
               | 
               | This is why they scrambled at the last minute to raise
               | billions to meet the higher collateral requirements:
               | https://www.google.com/search?q=robinhood+2.4+3.4+billion
               | 
               | RH does some questionable things but their "restriction
               | of the buying" is an inevitable consequence of not having
               | the billions to meet any margin calls. They were the tail
               | not the dog.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | > What is not speculation is that they restricted the
               | buying of stocks while not restricting the selling. The
               | rest, though it may be speculation, has enough
               | circumstantial evidence to allow most regular folks to
               | make up their mind.
               | 
               | Right, because sell orders would lower the clearinghouse
               | margin requirements. If there are $100M GME buys on RH
               | with 2 days to clear and $100M GME sells with 2 days to
               | clear, their clearinghouse margin requirement is $0.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | jw1224 wrote:
         | This is very important to know.
         | 
         | Robinhood actively colluded with their hedge fund owners, by
         | blocking buy orders -- but _not_ sell orders -- under the guise
         | of "increased margin requirements".
         | 
         | In fact, those margin requirements were being set by
         | Robinhood's prime broker and investor, Citadel Securities --
         | who were set to lose billions if retail were allowed to keep
         | buying.
        
           | jasode wrote:
           | _> under the guise of "increased margin requirements".
           | 
           | >In fact, those margin requirements were being set by
           | Robinhood's prime broker and investor, Citadel Securities _
           | 
           | To clarify, you're saying NSCC(DTCC) National Securities
           | Clearing Corporation was instructed by Citadel to increase
           | margin requirements? Example story:
           | https://www.cnn.com/2021/02/01/investing/robinhood-
           | gamestop-...
           | 
           | Regardless of whether NSCC acted independently or under
           | secret pressure from Citadel, what could Robinhood have done
           | differently? If they didn't have the billions in the bank to
           | control their destiny, what other options do they have? If
           | the clearing house cuts off Robinhood's trade settlement,
           | what are the realistic alternatives?
        
             | mandmandam wrote:
             | >Regardless of whether NSCC acted independently or under
             | secret pressure from Citadel, what could Robinhood have
             | done differently? If they didn't have the billions in the
             | bank to control their destiny, what other options do they
             | have? If the clearing house cuts off Robinhood's trade
             | settlement, what are the realistic alternatives?
             | 
             | What is integrity?
        
           | flefto wrote:
           | Robinhood's own customers got tossed to the dogs because
           | Citadel told the CEO of Robinhood to manipulate the market.
           | 
           | If you have a Robinhood account then you risk Robinhood
           | making decision that lose you money so that the hedge funds
           | make money.
        
         | vkou wrote:
         | Just a reminder that Robinhood didn't prevent this. Automatic
         | increases to clearing house collateral requirements prevented
         | this. If Robinhood allowed those trades to go through, they'd
         | have been cut off from the clearing houses, and none of their
         | customers would have been able to perform _any_ trades.
         | 
         | Unfortunately, due to the low level of public understanding of
         | how stock trades actually settle, the conspiracy narrative
         | you're presenting was the one that made it into the public
         | consciousness.
         | 
         | There's no such thing as an instant stock trade. Retail
         | brokerages are a leaky abstraction over what is actually an
         | incredibly messy settlement layer. This abstraction holds when
         | everything is normal, and leaks when stock prices become too
         | volatile.
        
           | flefto wrote:
           | If so, why doesn't this happen all the time?
           | 
           | In fact, when has it EVER happened before, or since?
           | 
           | If it was normal wouldn't there regularly be stocks that
           | can't be bought but can be sold?
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | Because stocks valuations don't jump by 2000%, with volumes
             | up 3000% 'all the time'.
             | 
             | And when they do, they aren't solely driven by retail
             | investor mania pig-piling the exact same brokerage.
             | 
             | And, uh, particular brokerages have stopped uni-directional
             | trades for volatile stocks in the past, for the exact same
             | reason. You may notice that no retail brokerage makes any
             | guarantees to its customers that they will be able to trade
             | anything, anytime they want. They don't carry a collateral
             | that can meet any such guarantee.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | rokobobo wrote:
               | I'm not a fan of Robinhood, but everything that vkou has
               | been saying is true.
               | 
               | My understanding is that Robinhood is self-clearing, not
               | that Citadel is its prime brokerage.
               | 
               | The clearing margin requirement came from NSCC. Clearing
               | margins CANNOT be satisfied using client funds. So it's
               | Robinhood's own capital--and whatever credit lines
               | they've negotiated--that would need to meet those
               | requirements.
               | 
               | If I deposit 100k into Robinhood and keep it there as
               | cash for 2 years, then one day I plunk all of it into
               | GME, then until all my trades settle two days later,
               | Robinhood will have increased clearing margin
               | requirements based on the VaR of my unsettled trades.
               | (Unless, my trade offsets someone else's from within
               | Robinhood, in which case I believe RH's margin would
               | reduce--but I'm not sure about this part.)
               | 
               | And if one day after my trades, GME's stock goes up 10x,
               | the VaR goes up roughly 10x as well. Even though I would
               | have a claim to a lot higher value in my account once
               | everything is settled, until the trades are settled, it's
               | a major cash crunch for RH.
               | 
               | The fact of the matter is that RH was not under-
               | capitalized or have disproportionately small credit lines
               | as a portion of their AUM, as compared to other
               | brokerages. It's just that their users were the ones that
               | acted in a most coordinated way on a stock whose VaR was
               | going through the roof.
        
           | Miner49er wrote:
           | > Automatic increases to clearing house collateral
           | requirements prevented this.
           | 
           | I don't think they were automatic? They were raised way more
           | then what was standard.
        
           | tl wrote:
           | Robinhood implemented restrictions before any other platform
           | though they were not the only ones to do so, held
           | restrictions longer than any of their competitors, used
           | restrictions (sell only) in a way that was unique to
           | Robinhood and falsely made public claims (later to be
           | retracted) that they had chosen to do some or all of this
           | "for the public good."
           | 
           | I would not trust them with a single dollar.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | That's because Robinhood had the bulk of the retail mania,
             | and were thus the most affected brokerage.
             | 
             | Other retail brokerages, that were less popular with the
             | WSB crowd never even stopped purchases of GME, because GME
             | is was a small fraction of their trade volume - and thus,
             | their collateral obligations did not grow much.
             | 
             | You are correct for not wanting to use them to trade, for
             | two reasons.
             | 
             | 1. If you are actively trading, you are almost certainly
             | throwing away money. Don't actively trade. Just buy an
             | index fund and forget about it.
             | 
             | 2. If you are actively trading, and you are a serious,
             | informed individual (which already excludes the
             | overwhelming majority of people who were buying GME), and
             | you want 24/7 uptime, you shouldn't use a discount zero-fee
             | brokerage that's popular on WSB. They won't be able to
             | guarantee that uptime when WSB decides to take one side of
             | a huge trade.
        
           | jw1224 wrote:
           | No, Robinhood's collateral requirements were increased by
           | their clearing house only because their clearing house were
           | on the hook to lose billions to retail investors during
           | January's short squeezes.
           | 
           | The same clearing house used by Robinhood were the same
           | people illegally naked-shorting GME.
           | 
           | This is collusion, plain and simple. No part of this is
           | representative of the "free" market.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | Nonsense. Clearing houses don't lose anything during a
             | short squeeze, as long as funds _committed_ to a trade
             | actually clear. They aren 't the ones on the hook for a
             | short exploding.
             | 
             | They raise their collateral requirements during a period of
             | high volatility. As it turns out, when you run a zero-fee
             | brokerage, you don't just have a couple of extra billions
             | of dollars lying around that you can put up as collateral
             | on a moment's notice.
             | 
             | > illegally naked-shorting GME.
             | 
             | You don't understand how shorts work.
             | 
             | You don't need anyone doing a naked short for a stock to
             | exceed 100% short. This has been explained hundreds of
             | times, both here, and on Reddit.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | jw1224 wrote:
               | > The only people allowed to naked short are market
               | makers
               | 
               | The SEC made naked short selling illegal after the 2008
               | financial crisis. Market makers are not allowed to naked
               | short.
               | 
               | > Clearing houses don't lose anything during a short
               | squeeze, as long as funds committed to a trade actually
               | clear
               | 
               | Exactly my point -- _as long as funds clear_ , which they
               | were at risk of not doing, thus putting clearing houses
               | like the DTCC on the hook, in the event of a margin call.
               | 
               | Let me break it down:
               | 
               | - Melvin Capital were aggressively shorting GME
               | 
               | - Retail investors used Robinhood to take advantage of a
               | short squeeze opportunity
               | 
               | - During the short squeeze, Citadel (who partly own
               | Melvin Capital) bailed-out Melvin with a $2.8bn
               | investment
               | 
               | - Citadel is Robinhood's prime brokerage, paying them for
               | preferential order flow
               | 
               | - Citadel's global Head of Operations is on the board of
               | the DTCC, the clearing house responsible for increasing
               | collateral requirements
               | 
               | - As a market maker, Citadel care a _huge_ amount about
               | GME exploding, because if Melvin Capital were margin-
               | called, Citadel end up holding the bag
               | 
               | - If Citadel are margin-called themselves, the DTCC
               | clearing house end up holding the bag.
               | 
               | This is really just the tip of the iceberg. I'm
               | consistently surprised at how defensive comments on HN
               | seem to be towards hedge funds and the whole short-
               | squeeze debacle -- which is still very much ongoing. I
               | can happily point anyone with an open mind in the
               | direction of excellent research summarising the _ongoing_
               | situation, and there 's mounds of evidence indicating
               | hedge funds never actually covered in January.
               | 
               | Not to mention the math on vote tallies in GME's latest
               | 8-K filing from 2 days ago _clearly proves more GME
               | shares exist than should be mathematically possible_ ,
               | enabled only by naked short sellers who never covered.
               | 
               | Oh, and whilst I'm at it, their 8-K also disclosed that
               | they've been working with the SEC since May to assist
               | them with an active investigation in to market
               | manipulation. Doesn't get much more obvious than that,
               | does it?
               | 
               | But if it's easier to turn a blind eye, then each to
               | their own.
        
               | ahtihn wrote:
               | > Not to mention the math on vote tallies in GME's latest
               | 8-K filing from 2 days ago clearly proves more GME shares
               | exist than should be mathematically possible, enabled
               | only by naked short sellers who never covered.
               | 
               | You mean the 8-K that showed 55M votes out of 70M shares
               | outstanding? How does that prove anything? Maybe you're
               | confusing shares outstanding with the float.
        
               | jw1224 wrote:
               | Yes, that's what I'm referring to.
               | 
               | For context, last year's 8-K showed 66% of shares voted.
               | The 8-K also reported a total of 42,886,817 shares voted
               | last year. This year's 8-K, issued 2 days ago, showed 55M
               | votes out of 70M possible. Therefore, 78.5% of shares
               | were voted.
               | 
               | However, unusually, this year's 8-K did NOT report the
               | total number of votes actually received.
               | 
               | Unsurprisingly this is likely because 8-K filings cannot
               | legally show over 100% of shares voted. GME's votes were
               | counted by Computershare [1]. When more votes are
               | received than shares outstanding, the vote tabulator
               | (Computershare) will "scale" the votes proportionally to
               | never exceed 100%. Computershare have publicly documented
               | procedures in place for how they scale votes in the event
               | of overvoting [2].
               | 
               | An off-by-1 rounding error in the 8-K on votes for
               | Lawrence Cheng, compared to all the other board members,
               | is highly suggestive votes have been scaled.
               | 
               | Retail brokers like eToro reported only 63% of eligible
               | votes were cast [3]. Countless international brokers
               | either refused or were unable to allow their shareholders
               | to cast votes.
               | 
               | Since the initial squeeze, the buy-sell ratio as reported
               | by Fidelity [4] vastly favours buying over selling. It's
               | slightly lower than it has been at the moment (currently
               | 76% buys), but back at April 14th when the vote deadline
               | was, it was higher than it is today. This shows retail
               | are not selling, only buying more.
               | 
               | Additionally, the broker non-vote figures in this year's
               | 8-K are significantly _less_ than in previous years. This
               | is another indicator of vote scaling, given the huge push
               | from retail investors to vote their shares.
               | 
               | These filings are only 2 days old, and truthfully, only
               | time will tell what will come of this. I've been watching
               | the price action of GME follow very predictable patterns
               | around option expiry and settlement dates over the past
               | few months, clear patterns are emerging. For more on this
               | you can search "GME FTD cycles".
               | 
               | My comments here really just cover the tip of the
               | iceberg, and I hope they provided some food for thought
               | for others. I didn't even start on the blatant media
               | coverups, or the obvious patterns of brand new Reddit
               | accounts almost exclusively being used to encourage sell-
               | offs. Nor coordinated pump-and-dumps on WSB for stocks
               | Citadel own long positions in. Or crypto markets tanking
               | within _minutes_ before liquidity tests begin. Or CNBC
               | abruptly cutting off guests who mention naked shorting.
               | Or brokers who are unable to locate shares. Or Michael
               | Burry, the famed investor who made billions from shorting
               | the housing market in 2008, having taken a long position
               | on GME. Or GameStop only actually publicly acknowledging
               | the potential of a squeeze on their social media, the
               | exact same day their chairman would have received the
               | initial (non-scaled) vote counts.
               | 
               | I could keep going on in more detail but I'll let others
               | do their own research. I feel I've read enough to be
               | confident in my assessment that shorts have not covered,
               | but if I'm wrong, I don't have more skin in the game than
               | I can afford to lose. We'll see!
               | 
               | ---
               | 
               | [1] Page 11, section 9: https://news.gamestop.com/static-
               | files/8f795a88-54a3-4320-b3...
               | 
               | [2] https://www.computershare.com/ca/en/Documents/CPU_OVE
               | R_VOTIN...
               | 
               | [3] https://twitter.com/eToro/status/1402643555403829256
               | 
               | [4] https://eresearch.fidelity.com/eresearch/gotoBL/fidel
               | ityTopO...
        
               | flefto wrote:
               | On the day in question, Robinhood posted to say this is
               | what it was doing, and it explicitly stated that it was
               | doing so to protect its customers from volatility. It
               | absolutely said nothing at all about doing it because of
               | regulatory or other requirements.
               | 
               | Robinhood has since deleted that post from its site.
               | 
               | And no matter how you cut the cake, if you put your money
               | into Robinhood then you risk losing it when Robinhood
               | changes the rules.
               | 
               | That's the message people need to hear.
        
               | rokobobo wrote:
               | It seems that the commenters in this thread have at least
               | two views on what you call "changing the rules." The fact
               | of the matter is, no one guarantees you 100% uptime
               | access to the markets. I think this episode should be a
               | lesson for everyone, RH sympathizers and haters alike,
               | that it probably makes a lot of sense to have well-funded
               | accounts at at least 2 brokerages, if you plan to be an
               | active trader.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | If Robinhood hadn't disabled GME buys, one possibility
               | was RH customers not being able to trade _any stocks_.
               | Which one do you think is the better choice, limiting a
               | single stock, or potentially losing the ability for all
               | customers of RH to trade _all_ stocks?
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | > The SEC made naked short selling illegal after the 2008
               | financial crisis. Market makers are not allowed to naked
               | short.
               | 
               | Actually, they are allowed to naked short. It's essential
               | for them to be able to do so to hedge their exposure and
               | provide a bid/ask at all times.
               | 
               | https://www.sec.gov/investor/pubs/regsho.htm
        
               | jw1224 wrote:
               | Thanks, that's the first I've heard of that. I'll have a
               | read, cheers.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | The reason they're allowed to is precisely for a GME type
               | situation, if there is a massive buy-side imbalance and
               | there aren't enough shares to borrow to short (aka sell
               | to buyers), market makers are allowed to naked short to
               | remain delta neutral.
               | 
               | Citadel (probably[0]) isn't going to naked short GME to
               | take a directional position, they just want to capture
               | the bid/ask and hedge the directional risk, which
               | sometimes requires naked shorting. I suppose they could
               | (and might) use synthetic shorts (long atm put, short atm
               | call) to hedge. I'm not sure if only a designated market
               | maker is allowed to naked short, or if supplemental
               | liquidity providers or other types of MMs I don't know
               | about are also allowed to naked short.
               | 
               | [0] I say this only because I'm not Ken Griffin and don't
               | know with absolute certainty, but generally a market
               | maker aims to stay delta neutral.
        
               | rokobobo wrote:
               | Do you have evidence that Citadel is RH's prime
               | brokerage? Being an executing broker or a trading
               | counterparty or paying for order flow has nothing to do
               | with being a prime brokerage or clearing RH's trades.
        
               | kasey_junk wrote:
               | RH self clears:
               | https://blog.robinhood.com/news/2018/10/9/introducing-
               | cleari...
               | 
               | Before that they used Apex.
               | 
               | This commenter seems disastrously uninformed about
               | something they have very strident beliefs about.
        
               | jw1224 wrote:
               | I just re-read my comment and saying Citadel was
               | Robinhood's prime brokerage was definitely an error (too
               | late to edit the comment now). I should've said market-
               | maker.
               | 
               | Nonetheless, all the conflicts-of-interest between
               | Citadel, Robinhood, and Melvin still stand. Citadel own
               | Melvin, Citadel are market-makers for Robinhood, Citadel
               | are members of the DTCC, Robinhood users cost Melvin
               | billions, Citadel are footing the bill.
        
               | quickthrowman wrote:
               | Correction, Citadel is a PFOF customer of Robinhood, not
               | a market maker for Robinhood. Market makers are retained
               | by the exchanges.
        
               | kasey_junk wrote:
               | Worth noting that Robinhood is a member of the DTCC
               | directly. As is Computershare.
               | 
               | You don't need the connection to Citadel. If any member
               | of DTCC blows up DTCC holds the bag. But all that means
               | is all members of DTCC hold the bag, including the
               | members holding the non-settled long positions because
               | all public equities in the US trade through DTCC or one
               | of its members.
        
       | nickpp wrote:
       | This flurry of IPOs and acquisitions kinda' remind me of the 1999
       | - 2000 times. But maybe I am too old and jaded...
        
       | neonate wrote:
       | https://archive.is/92B40
        
       | elevenoh wrote:
       | FYI for those interested: you can get exposure to Robinhood's
       | post-IPO market cap outcome right now via FTX.com pre-IPO
       | futures.
       | 
       | This is something I'm pleasantly surprised by in 2021: Deposit
       | crypto. Transact pre-ipo futures, stock futures, commodities like
       | lumber etc. 24/7 with solid-liquidity.
        
         | JumpCrisscross wrote:
         | > _you can get exposure to Robinhood 's post-IPO market cap_
         | 
         | Ish. Creating derivatives around private assets is hard. Anyone
         | who bought FTX swaps in _e.g._ Coinbase pre-IPO lost money on
         | bad pricing alone. It's for these reasons that their product is
         | not compliant with decades-old U.S. securities law.
         | Unfortunately, it's free to roam in younger jurisdictions.
         | 
         |  _Disclaimer: I work in the private markets. I used to make
         | markets in derivatives. I haven't seen a single solution, to
         | date, that competently combines the two._
        
           | gruez wrote:
           | >Anyone who bought FTX swaps in e.g. Coinbase pre-IPO lost
           | money on bad pricing alone.
           | 
           | Is this when they're buying, or when they're selling?
        
             | JumpCrisscross wrote:
             | > _Is this when they 're buying, or when they're selling?_
             | 
             | FTX isn't a trading venue for shares. They create tokens
             | _representing_ the shares [1].
             | 
             | When they sell a token representing Coinbase stock at 3x
             | what the stock is trading on private stock venues, and a
             | bit more compared with where it IPO'd, that gain isn't
             | necessarily going to other FTX customers. It's going to
             | their captive broker-dealer, a German-regulated ( _i.e._
             | virtually unregulated) entity.
             | 
             | Given Coinbase shareholders weren't allowed to transfer
             | shares on unapproved platforms, there were _zero_
             | authorized Coinbase sellers on FTX. The winnings went to
             | the house.
             | 
             | [1] https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-
             | us/articles/360051229472-Tokenize...
        
       | rataata_jr wrote:
       | I wish I could downvote.
        
       | Traster wrote:
       | These valuations are crazy - meaning one of two things are going
       | to happen in the mid-term. Either we see inflation outside of
       | asset prices (wage rises, increased consumer spending) and the
       | revenue of these companies rise to justify the valuations, or we
       | don't see that inflation and these stock prices slide since they
       | can't justify their values. Now I'm not an economist - so maybe
       | someone can help me out here. If the market slides because of
       | lack of already priced in inflation, is that deflationary? And
       | therefore could it bethat the asset price inflation we've seen
       | recently could be reversed simply by a lack of retail inflation
       | causing stock prices to drop therefore destroying asset price
       | inflation?
        
         | quickthrowman wrote:
         | > These valuations are crazy
         | 
         | To whom? 0% interest and the Fed put have a _massive_ impact on
         | valuations, particularly growth stocks.
        
         | randomsearch wrote:
         | only know a little about economics but it seems very unlikely
         | inflationary would drive up stocks more than it's driving up
         | prices across the board. even if it were, the (subjective)
         | large over-valuation of stocks wouldn't really be explain by an
         | increase in money supply.
         | 
         | When the stock market collapses, it probably won't move
         | inflation directly rather the collapse in demand across the
         | economy will. second order effects as credit is no longer
         | available due to banks panicking and govts intervening...
        
         | pram wrote:
         | 1) A market correction is deflationary pretty much by
         | definition 2) Inflation is a lagging indicator. The obvious
         | expectation months ago would have been economic activity
         | increasing after COVID 3) Valuation is often disconnected from
         | revenue or anything else you'd consider rational, and it has
         | nothing to do with inflation. An equity is its own thing, not a
         | perfect indicator of economic reality
        
         | Clewza313 wrote:
         | Didi is the Chinese Uber, and Uber's market cap as I write this
         | is $90B, so on the face of it $70B for a fast-growing market on
         | track to be several times larger than the US doesn't seem
         | crazy.
         | 
         | Of course, that's assuming Uber's valuation is sane, which is
         | not a bet I'd personally be willing to take.
        
       | fnord77 wrote:
       | there's no way to bet against freshly issued IPOs, right?
       | 
       | I think for both shorting puts, there's a lockout period after
       | the stock is issued. And limited inventory for borrowing.
       | 
       | Or has that changed?
       | 
       | I see almost all recent high-flying IPOs as overly inflated
       | investor cashouts. Steve Blank had a post about this...
        
         | poooogles wrote:
         | >there's no way to bet against freshly issued IPOs, right?
         | 
         | Sell call options? Buy puts?
        
           | enlyth wrote:
           | Options are not available from day one on IPOs, usually it
           | takes at least a few weeks for them to get listed, although
           | the minimum delay is three days
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | np_tedious wrote:
           | This is generally unavailable until 1 day after IPO.
        
         | quickthrowman wrote:
         | You could do an OTC swap with Goldman Sachs, or just wait a
         | week for the market makers to open up the option chains.
         | 
         | Once the chain is open, you can sell as many puts as your heart
         | desires (or as many as your broker will let you) FYI, shorting
         | puts is long delta, so you'd want the price to go up if you
         | sold puts. Long puts and short calls are negative delta (short)
        
       | frankbreetz wrote:
       | https://archive.is/92B40
        
       | codetrotter wrote:
       | This definitely calls for that one four-panel image macro with
       | drake saying no thanks in panel one to something in panel two,
       | and approving in panel three to what's in panel four.
       | 
       | You know the one right?
       | 
       | So then panel two: Buying meme-stocks
       | 
       | And panel four: Buying stonks in the platform that everyone is
       | using to buy meme-stocks.
       | 
       | It's too bad that I don't actually have any money to buy
       | Robinhood IPO though :^) :')
        
         | mandmandam wrote:
         | You must have missed the 420 memos where clearly bizarre
         | fuckery around "meme stocks" was supported by Robinhood
         | suspending trading of them, resulting in a mass migration from
         | RH to Fidelity and others.
         | 
         | You probably shouldn't talk condescendingly about things you
         | clearly are so behind on.
        
           | codetrotter wrote:
           | > You probably shouldn't talk condescendingly about things
           | you clearly are so behind on.
           | 
           | Which part of my comment seemed condescending to you? For the
           | record, no part of it was intended to be.
        
             | mandmandam wrote:
             | Fair enough - though I'd suggest you differentiate between
             | meme stocks (those hyped on social media) and meme stocks
             | that were targeted for destruction by SHFs and are now
             | facing a multi-billion short squeeze. There's a lot of
             | range between those two definitions.
        
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