[HN Gopher] To protect against weaponized drones, we must unders...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       To protect against weaponized drones, we must understand their key
       strengths
        
       Author : jonbaer
       Score  : 64 points
       Date   : 2021-06-08 16:12 UTC (6 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (spectrum.ieee.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (spectrum.ieee.org)
        
       | dkarl wrote:
       | > The potential of consumer or commercial drones harming world
       | leaders became immediately evident when a protester hovered one
       | close to German chancellor Angela Merkel at a campaign rally in
       | 2013
       | 
       | Pretty arbitrary incident to choose, but I suppose the writer
       | would have felt silly mentioning the flying dildos that buzzed
       | Gary Kasparov at a political event in 2008.
        
         | anigbrowl wrote:
         | Someone literally did that the other day (flying a drone with a
         | dildo attached) to a person running for mayor in New Mexico,
         | and then punched the candidate when an event staffer was able
         | to grab the drone.
         | 
         | https://ktla.com/news/nationworld/new-mexico-sheriff-running...
        
         | 1MachineElf wrote:
         | I'm more interested in the potential of world leaders' drones
         | harming regular people.
        
           | dkarl wrote:
           | I have no idea who was responsible for the flying dildos, but
           | Kasparov was an outspoken critic of Putin, so I imagine the
           | incident made him even more conscious of how easily Putin
           | could reach him if he wanted. He continued his political
           | activities, but he left Russia a few years later and
           | announced that he couldn't go back in the near future because
           | if he did he wouldn't be allowed to leave again. He has still
           | not been back, to my knowledge.
        
       | robotnikman wrote:
       | I can already imagine ships being outfitted with hundreds of anti
       | aircraft autocannons just for shooting down drone swarms, kind of
       | like the USN ships of WWII. An old solution for a new problem
        
         | jessaustin wrote:
         | Could someone get something like that for her house? Asking for
         | a friend...
        
           | capeterson wrote:
           | If you've got the budget for it, the company I work for may
           | be of use: https://www.whitefoxdefense.com/
           | 
           | I'm not sure if I would recommend jammers or kinetic weapons,
           | haha.
        
           | korse wrote:
           | If you really wanted to, I'd recommend a microwave 'cannon'.
           | You can build one yourself for cheap-ish based off a
           | directional antenna and some recycled microwave-link
           | components.
           | 
           | Then you just need to target it. Probably need some sort of
           | weather proof retractable cover so that the neighbors don't
           | freak out. Gimbal under the cover to aim the thing, and then
           | a means of target acquisition. People have tried to use
           | audible input to pick up the propellers, but I don't really
           | know how well that would work in practice and what kind of /
           | how many microphones you would need to get a fix.
           | 
           | The generally idea would be, system detects and gets a fix on
           | probable drone, notifies you and allows you to do a visual
           | check and give the fire signal. Microwave directional targets
           | and roasts the target microelectronics.
        
             | AlexCoventry wrote:
             | How hard is it to shield electronics from a microwave
             | blast? What impact would surrounding them in alfoil have?
        
               | K0balt wrote:
               | Pretty easy to protect electronics from rf energy.
        
               | kova12 wrote:
               | Shielding might end up warming up and frying device with
               | heat
        
               | korse wrote:
               | Yes it is, but most consumer drone hardware doesn't do a
               | very good job of it. Also, most drones require a a couple
               | of RF/EM sensors for position and heading which can't
               | exactly be Faraday caged.
               | 
               | I was being somewhat facetious about mounting a microwave
               | auto-turret on your house, but the technology has been
               | toyed with for years as a man-portable solution to
               | consumer drone intrusion.
        
               | K0balt wrote:
               | Yeah, it would need to be customized for sure. Antennas
               | can be filtered pretty effectively even in high rf
               | environments, but they might be jammed. The Magnetometer
               | will work in a box.
               | 
               | Straight consumer drones should be easy to disable
               | though.
        
               | snovv_crash wrote:
               | Not if it also needs to have an antenna to listen with.
               | That's always going to be an easy way in.
        
               | K0balt wrote:
               | Still, can clamp it as long as the attacking frequency is
               | out of band. Also, no real need for telemetry in most
               | cases anyway.
        
             | capeterson wrote:
             | > audible input to pick up the propellers
             | 
             | Does not really work that well, as far as I've seen. One is
             | probably best off using an SDR to pick up the
             | communications between the drone and the remote. It's a
             | rather inexpensive solution, as well.
             | 
             | Microdoppler is promising for this as well, but that is
             | likely astronomically out of the range of purchasing power
             | for the average person.
        
         | rolph wrote:
         | submersible drones could be a problem, especialy if engineered
         | for water travel and aerial travel
        
           | stickfigure wrote:
           | ...otherwise known as "torpedoes".
        
           | aerostable_slug wrote:
           | https://www.lockheedmartin.com/en-us/products/orca-extra-
           | lar...
        
         | throwawayffffas wrote:
         | They are going with lasers instead.
         | https://news.usni.org/2020/05/22/video-uss-portland-fires-la...
        
         | jayGlow wrote:
         | multi turreted tanks fell out of favor early in world War 2. I
         | wonder if there could be a resurgence as a counter to drones.
        
       | Animats wrote:
       | The article has a good intro, and then never goes on to discuss
       | the "key strengths". It's just clickbait. They're also late to
       | the party on this. The US professional military has been
       | discussing this for over a decade.
       | 
       | There have already been more than a half dozen articles on drones
       | in Parameters, the U.S. Army War College's journal. "The coercive
       | logic of militant drone use" [1] is worth reading. This covers
       | how non-state groups have used drones, what worked and what
       | didn't. The US Army is unused to fighting under a hostile sky,
       | and now, a few times, they've had to. _" In 2017, then commander
       | of US Special Operations Command General Raymond A. Thomas noted,
       | "[the] most daunting problem [of 2016] was an adaptive enemy who,
       | for a time, enjoyed tactical superiority in the airspace under
       | our conventional air superiority in the form of commercially
       | available drones and fuel-expedient (?) weapons systems, and our
       | only available response was small arms fire."_ They also mention
       | a drone disabling an Israeli naval vessel in 2006.
       | 
       | There's been a lot more military use of drones than is generally
       | realized. Much of it is for recon. Commercial hobbyist drones are
       | more than good enough for finding out what the enemy is up to,
       | and most drone use by militant groups is for that.
       | 
       | So far, that article indicates, drones have been unable to yield
       | a decisive advantage in any conflict. At least to militant
       | groups.
       | 
       | Not many people read Parameters. That paper has only 65
       | downloads. More should.
       | 
       | [1]
       | https://press.armywarcollege.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article...
        
         | coderintherye wrote:
         | >So far, that article indicates, drones have been unable to
         | yield a decisive advantage in any conflict
         | 
         | Drones gave Azerbaijan a decisive advantage in the recent
         | conflict with Armenia: https://www.csis.org/analysis/air-and-
         | missile-war-nagorno-ka...
        
           | hungryforcodes wrote:
           | Only once. Everyone has paid attention, and the next drone
           | attacks will be suitably defended against. The fact is the
           | "killer bot" scenario is just a one time thing. After it
           | happens, all cities or armies or whatever, will have very
           | solid defences installed against swarming or even just
           | loitering bots. Flying drones are incredibly fragile and
           | exposed. They are slow and easy to kill.
        
             | trhway wrote:
             | >Only once. Everyone has paid attention, and the next drone
             | attacks will be suitably defended against.
             | 
             | no. Azerbajan/Turkey went into it only after verifying that
             | it works, to the devastating effect, against the Russian
             | made air-defenses in Syria and Libya. Now Ukraine has
             | bought these drones and is starting their production. In
             | the next year or two we'll see them being used to the same
             | great effect in Donbass. So far Russia hasn't managed to
             | come up with any meaningful defense. If anything the
             | recognition of the issue has only started to dawn on them,
             | and by the time they manage something the Turkish/Ukranian
             | (they discuss collaborative development) drones will
             | improve another level up - drone capabilities at the
             | current stage (beginning of the hockey stick) are much
             | faster to improve - add speed, a bit of stealth, [partial]
             | autonomy, coordinated swarming. It is a new paradigm
             | shifting generation of warfare like iron navy ships,
             | machine guns, planes, missiles, etc. were in their
             | respective times.
        
               | petre wrote:
               | Rafael Systems sells Drone Dome anti drone mobile
               | defense.
        
               | FridayoLeary wrote:
               | I think they even proved themselves in the recent Gaza
               | campaign.
        
             | baybal2 wrote:
             | > Everyone has paid attention, and the next drone attacks
             | will be suitably defended against
             | 
             | How? They fly just few hundred meters above the ground,
             | launch from field runways, and for the price of a single
             | B-2, a country can buy 2000 of them.
             | 
             | Jamming? Even a country like Turkey was able to devise a
             | passable inertial navigation, and and programming for
             | autonomous operation way exceeding an easy to trick "attack
             | anything that moves" mode.
             | 
             | To counter them, you will need a very sizeable air force
             | fitted with best radars possible to track them down
             | individually, and strafe with a cannon (since no missile
             | currently can lock onto something so small, slow, cold, and
             | low flying.)
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | > _To counter them, you will need a very sizeable air
               | force fitted with best radars possible to track them down
               | individually, and strafe with a cannon_
               | 
               | Or, you know, currently fielded SHORAD systems and CIWS?
        
               | baybal2 wrote:
               | What are their range, and height of radar horizon?
               | 
               | Even if that wouldn't be a problem, you will still need
               | really a lot of that.
        
               | magicsmoke wrote:
               | What about their speed and range? If they fly fast
               | they're not going far. If they go far they're slow moving
               | targets. And if they go fast and far they have expensive
               | rockets attached and you're being hit with missiles
               | instead.
        
               | baybal2 wrote:
               | The biggest threat today are tactical drones from just
               | below a ton to a few tons.
               | 
               | 100-300km - way outside of range of artillery. And they
               | are all field runway launchable, so you don't really get
               | anything from bombing the airfield.
               | 
               | And most of them are made to fly below heights at which
               | any air defence is effective.
        
             | anigbrowl wrote:
             | The primary defense for the time being is 'hide.' US Marine
             | tacticians, for example, are shifting priority from
             | hardening an impromptu position (ie a foxhole) to
             | concealing it.
        
             | sliken wrote:
             | Slow and easy to kill? Seen a drone race? At what range and
             | with what weapon would they be easy to kill? How long would
             | the kill take? At what range could the drone be killed at?
             | 
             | Sure often drones fly in straight lines or hover. But in an
             | adversarial environment they could easily move pseudo
             | randomly and be quite difficult to kill.
        
               | jcrawfordor wrote:
               | Modern CIWS are designed to be effective against
               | substantially faster and more agile rockets. Drones
               | really are slow and easy to take down compared to guided
               | rockets and especially kinetic ones, and the military has
               | been working on means of defending against those for
               | decades. The Phalanx is being modified to serve as an
               | anti-UAS system, for example. The challenge is more to do
               | with detection than firing.
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | Deploying point defense technologies over a city/civilian
               | targets has some obvious problems, though.
               | 
               | Lasers, electronic countermeasures, tangly stuff, etc,
               | are much more attractive than systems that fire thousands
               | of cannon rounds per minute or that launch explosive
               | missiles.
        
               | sliken wrote:
               | From the phalanx wiki:
               | 
               | Whereas naval Phalanx systems fire tungsten armor-
               | piercing rounds, the C-RAM uses the 20-mm HEIT-SD (High-
               | Explosive Incendiary Tracer, Self-Destruct) ammunition,
               | originally developed for the M163 Vulcan Air Defense
               | System.[26][34] These rounds explode on impact with the
               | target, or on tracer burnout, thereby greatly reducing
               | the risk of collateral damage from rounds that fail to
               | hit their target.
               | 
               | Not that the risk is zero, but at least it's "greatly
               | reduced".
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | You wouldn't generally let a C-RAM fire at a low angle
               | over a city. And even if you did, the problem of how many
               | of these you need for decent coverage becomes large,
               | because there's no ideal placement that doesn't involve
               | shooting straight at friendly things from some approach
               | vectors.
               | 
               | A CIWS is not a reasonable way to stop drone attacks on
               | civilian targets.
        
               | sliken wrote:
               | Dunno, do agile rockets dodge? Or just follow a simple
               | preprogrammed patterns (like low, then pop up to attack
               | from above)?
               | 
               | Not sure a CIWS system that can hit a mach 2 missile that
               | doesn't dodge would necessarily handle the same $$$ spent
               | on a N cheaper drones. How many minutes of firing do
               | modern CIWS systems typically have?
               | 
               | Loitering at max engagement range and dodging might well
               | end up using ammo at a rate that the CIWS can not
               | sustain.
               | 
               | Also I suspect any CIWS can get a kill on just about any
               | part of a missile, where drones often have very small
               | kill zones (often battery or gas, payload, motor(s), and
               | control) that might well be just a few % of the size of
               | the drone.
               | 
               | I googled the phalanx, looks like it typically has a drum
               | of ammo that lasts for about 3 seconds. Is that 3 drones
               | worth? 10? 100?
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | > Also I suspect any CIWS can get a kill on just about
               | any part of a missile, where drones often have very small
               | kill zones (often battery or gas, payload, motor(s), and
               | control) that might well be just a few % of the size of
               | the drone.
               | 
               | I guarantee you that just grazing a drone with a 20mm
               | round will still kill it, even if you don't "hit"
               | anything critical. :P
        
               | sliken wrote:
               | Really? Say you blow a 1" hole in a wing that's got some
               | balsa struts and some thin fabric? Or a wing just made
               | out of a sheet of foam? Both are common on cheap drones.
               | 
               | Sure the 20mm round represents an amazing amount of
               | kinetic energy, but the drone doesn't offer any
               | resistance, and I wouldn't expect the round to even
               | notice. Sure the disturbance in the air might throw the
               | drone for a few loops, but any decent software will
               | recover.
               | 
               | Sure hitting more substantial targets the target itself
               | becomes of the shrapnel that causes an ever increasing
               | zone of damage. Not clear to me that a piece of paper or
               | thin fabric would exhibit the same behavior.
        
               | mlyle wrote:
               | Speaking as someone who's built and destroyed lots of
               | homebuilt aircraft, and shot lots of things with guns of
               | various sizes...
               | 
               | 1. I think you're conflating "cheap agile drone" with
               | "foam or balsa+durakote fixed wing aircraft".
               | 
               | 2. Probable engagement aspect for a drone is not
               | "straight up", as would be necessary for your scenario.
               | 
               | 3. A little itty bitty hole in a wing does a whole lot
               | more than you'd think.
               | 
               | 4. Expecting a high velocity cannon round to just punch a
               | clean hole in the wing is a little much.
               | 
               | Foam's a bit more robust, but a small pebble at a few
               | miles per hour has wrecked my whole durakote day before.
               | 
               | And yes, there's degenerate cases, like you could have a
               | whole sheet of dollar tree foam board maybe take a hit or
               | two.
        
               | ethbr0 wrote:
               | In the C-RAM role, Phalanx uses 20mm M940 MPT-SD rounds.
               | 
               | Explosive (self-destructing) and incendiary
               | 
               | https://www.gd-ots.com/munitions/medium-caliber-
               | ammunition/2...
        
               | wearywanderer wrote:
               | > _Dunno, do agile rockets dodge? Or just follow a simple
               | preprogrammed patterns (like low, then pop up to attack
               | from above)?_
               | 
               | Modern antiship missiles have complex programs. Some are
               | capable of flying in formation with each other, with one
               | missile flying high for visibility and communicating with
               | the other missiles in the formation that are flying very
               | low. If/when the missile on top is destroyed, another
               | missile in the formation can be automatically selected to
               | take its place.
        
               | baybal2 wrote:
               | > Modern CIWS are designed to be effective against
               | substantially faster and more agile rockets.
               | 
               | The thing is exactly that those drones are so slow, and
               | low.
               | 
               | Phalanx performance against sea skimming missiles is know
               | to be poor.
               | 
               | And that on dielectric, flat sea surface.
               | 
               | Even military drones weighting few tons can fly
               | autonomously under 100m.
               | 
               | Ironically, it's now depressions in the terrain which
               | will provide more air defence since they will force
               | terrain following drones, and cruise missiles to move at
               | oblique angles.
               | 
               | Basically the problem is the same as with low, and slow
               | cruise missiles, except worse.
        
               | dougmwne wrote:
               | Does it at all change the equation that you could
               | trivially fly the drone 2 feet above the ground?
        
               | wearywanderer wrote:
               | Flying nape-of-the-earth is a hard counter to CIWS-style
               | defense systems. For antiship missiles this tactic
               | doesn't help a whole lot, but for drones over land? C-RAM
               | can't see through a hill, let alone shoot through one.
        
               | lazide wrote:
               | And even drone races are slow and predictable compared to
               | what is possible with an applied military mind and decent
               | tools. I suspect (or hope) we already have some decent
               | options in the top secret space.
               | 
               | Nothing we have now (publicly) is going to do a damn
               | against a shipping container full of 2-5 lb drones each
               | carrying 1 lb of C4 in a swarm with cheap off the shelf
               | sensors going 100 mph nap of the earth in a distributed
               | pattern. And that is currently entirely doable with off
               | the shelf drones using existing software and published
               | techniques for peanuts. Add in some decent programming
               | and logistics talent, and that is a huge problem.
        
               | kevinventullo wrote:
               | This made me realize something like a TAS drone race
               | would be interesting to watch.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | sneak wrote:
               | I'm sort of surprised we haven't seen this already. It's
               | not even that hard or expensive to build.
        
               | hnuser123456 wrote:
               | Here's a line of cops shooting at race drones. They
               | would've had plenty of time to escape if they weren't
               | sticking around to find out how long it takes to get shot
               | down. These were race drones from 5 years ago and modern
               | ones can be around twice as fast. Not to mention you
               | don't want to dump a magazine upwards in your own
               | territory.
               | 
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xq0oCM37oZA
        
               | wearywanderer wrote:
               | > _Not to mention you don 't want to dump a magazine
               | upwards in your own territory._
               | 
               | That is what birdshot is for. Birdshot, e.g. "No. 9 or
               | 10" shot, are tiny lead BBs about 2mm diameter. Because
               | they are small, they have a large surface area to mass
               | ratio, and consequently, they fall back down to earth at
               | a low, safe speed. When they land on dry leaves, they
               | bounce off and sound a bit like rain. When it is shot
               | into the air and falls back down onto you, it won't even
               | bruise you, let alone injure you. (However it _can_ kill
               | if fired _directly_ at somebody.)
        
             | baybal2 wrote:
             | > They are slow and easy to kill.
             | 
             | The drones flying slow, and low makes them harder to kill,
             | not easier.
        
             | UnpossibleJim wrote:
             | https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/jul/25/reaper-
             | drone-m...
             | 
             | Not all drones are AI, there are remote drones that are
             | very fast and very hard to kill, pulling Gforces that would
             | make normal pilots pass out. With the US declaration that
             | drones are "munitions", we have effectively stated that we
             | can launch them into the airspace of countries that we
             | aren't technically at war with, and claim it was "border
             | fire", like we did with Afghanistan.
        
       | m0llusk wrote:
       | The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan is interesting in a
       | couple of ways. Most have focused on how it was possible to win a
       | conflict that has historically been extremely difficult, but also
       | interesting is what happened afterward. As soon as the aggressive
       | drone campaign was dialed back irregular asymmetric warfare
       | flared back up. So it seems that it is possible to accomplish
       | amazing things with drones, but those victories are only as
       | robust as ongoing drone mobilization allows.
        
       | narrator wrote:
       | Are we entering an age kind of like the 18th century when most
       | people could own a musket and the government didn't have better
       | weapons or effective defenses from these weapons?
        
       | philsnow wrote:
       | Daniel Suarez has a 2012 near-future novel that features this
       | kind of thing [0]. In the book there are drones swarms armed with
       | single-use tube guns, essentially, Saturday Night Specials [1].
       | 
       | I shill for his books regularly on HN. They're a guilty pleasure
       | for me: snappy, easy to blow through in a single sitting, and are
       | each begging for a movie adaptation (think "The Martian"). Start
       | with Daemon.
       | 
       | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kill_Decision [1]
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saturday_night_special
        
       | tarruda wrote:
       | I wonder how long until DIY weaponized drones are available to
       | common criminals.
       | 
       | It doesn't seem like we are prepared to deal with something like
       | this.
        
         | WanderPanda wrote:
         | Strap a knife on a fpv rc airplane and you have something as
         | deadly as a sniper
        
           | abz10 wrote:
           | Unlike a bullet you could hear an RC airplane coming.
        
             | korse wrote:
             | Actually this isn't a big problem. Quads or RC planes at a
             | reasonable height aren't audible. Add in night and lack of
             | running lights and no one is going to notice.
             | 
             | If you are using a wing, then you just program your robot
             | to come in high, cut it's engine and continue on a glide
             | trajectory to the target. The flap servos make nearly no
             | noise.
             | 
             | If you've got a quad, come in fast and basically huck the
             | vehicle at the target.
             | 
             | Ardupilot + ROS make this all relatively straightforward to
             | implement and provide an easy way to interface with
             | necessary sub-systems.
        
               | abz10 wrote:
               | Ardupilot will not hit a human size target. People can
               | barely do it. You're not going to lob a tumbling quad at
               | a target with any accuracy that's a joke.
               | 
               | To do this with any reliability you need custom software
               | and probably hardware. It'll look more like a smart
               | munition. But it'll also be more difficult than strapping
               | a knife to a RC plane.
        
               | korse wrote:
               | First, we aren't talking knives.
               | 
               | Second, who said the quad was tumbling? Significantly
               | cutting engine speed and removing significant lift forces
               | on a quad in order to kill the buzz doesn't mean it will
               | start wildly gyrating.
               | 
               | Third, Ardupilot will get you within a few feet of a
               | specified point with a good enough vector and speed.
               | Luckily you can use a subroutine (secondary control
               | program) to handle the final approach from the 'point' to
               | the target.
        
               | abz10 wrote:
               | We literally are talking knives on RC planes; see the
               | comment I originally replied to. You are moving the goal
               | posts.
               | 
               | A quad will tumble with the motors off, the whole thing
               | is a significant lift force. It was a big problem in
               | early controller software where throttle dead zone would
               | turn off the props. A problem I personally experienced.
               | Maintaining any semblance of stability requires active
               | adjustment.
               | 
               | And no, Ardupilot will not get anything going at high
               | speed to within a few feet in 3d space.
        
             | LargoLasskhyfv wrote:
             | Not when it is diving down vertically, from high above.
        
               | abz10 wrote:
               | Off the shelf RC airplanes have terrible unpowered
               | terminal velocity. You'd have to custom build to get
               | anything decent. Which is more difficult than strapping a
               | knife to a RC plane.
        
               | LargoLasskhyfv wrote:
               | 3D-printer to the rescue!
        
               | mLuby wrote:
               | Like this RC airplane (drone) modeled after a WW2 dive
               | bomber. https://youtu.be/ogxKvQeVqqc?t=583
        
               | LargoLasskhyfv wrote:
               | Lol, yes! But the Stuka (Sturzkampfbomber) wasn't what I
               | had in mind. In reality they were (retro)fitted with
               | gadgets that made them whine/screech loudly when doin'
               | the dive...
        
         | rolph wrote:
         | if you can make a unabomber type of device you can construct a
         | weaponized quadrocopter
         | 
         | thinking further, even just the manner, or tactics used when
         | flying could be weapon like, such as chaff drones
        
           | lurquer wrote:
           | > if you can make a unabomber type of device you can
           | construct a weaponized quadrocopter
           | 
           | It's trivial, cheap, and simple to do massive harm to massive
           | numbers of people.
           | 
           | Fortunately, humans don't usually do this unless part of the
           | government/military.
           | 
           | In a country of 300 million, the only non-state mass death
           | events are a handful of terrorist attacks and deranged
           | teenagers determined to shoot up their schools. The annual
           | deaths caused by these non-state actors is, on average, less
           | than the annual fatalities on a given stretch of a run-of-
           | the-mill interstate.
        
             | boplicity wrote:
             | In 2020, 24 people died in car crashes in all of Seattle.
             | [1]
             | 
             | In 2020, 446 people died in mass shootings in the US. [2]
             | 
             | 1. https://komonews.com/news/local/seattle-traffic-deaths-
             | remai...
             | 
             | 2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_mass_shootings_in_
             | the_...
        
         | MikeDelta wrote:
         | I read somewhere that commercial drones with bombs were used
         | in, I believe, Afghanistan against the US forces.
        
         | JoeAltmaier wrote:
         | ..or the general public? Imagine a web site where you give your
         | credit card and name a victim.
        
         | pmastela wrote:
         | > I wonder how long until DIY weaponized drones are available
         | to common criminals.
         | 
         | Common criminals are using commodity drones for reconnaissance
         | [1].
         | 
         | [1] https://www.techradar.com/news/criminal-intent-fbi-
         | details-h...
        
       | ProjectArcturis wrote:
       | Drones are the new aircraft carriers. That is, pre-WWII, the
       | dominant naval ship was the battleship. Heavily armored, with
       | enormous guns, military planners expected that the battle for the
       | Atlantic and Pacific would be carried out by these monsters
       | slugging it out. Though there were hints that planes could be
       | quite effective against ships, few admirals realized that the
       | longer range of an aircraft carrier would make the battleships
       | effectively obsolete in ship-ship battles. And after all, they'd
       | spent a ton of money producing those battleships, and developing
       | doctrine. Would you really want to throw that all away on some
       | newfangled novelty?
       | 
       | After Pearl Harbor, it became clear that the answer should have
       | been Yes.
       | 
       | Drones offer overwhelming advantages -- they're cheap and
       | disposable. A drone generally costs less than the US missile used
       | to shoot it down. You can lose 100 of them, and there will be no
       | lives lost on your side.
       | 
       | During WWII, by 1943 the European theater was essentially
       | decided, except for a lot of killing. The US was producing tanks
       | and planes so quickly that it was simply mathematically
       | impossible for the Germans to counter them. Will the same thing
       | happen when China decides to throw its manufacturing capacity
       | into war drones?
        
         | dtwest wrote:
         | When battleships and tanks are the weapon, manufacturing
         | capacity powers the war machine. Perhaps drones usher in a new
         | dynamic in that regard too. Maybe it's not how many drones you
         | produce but how well programmed they are, what sensor or
         | communication technology they use, etc.
        
         | f38zf5vdt wrote:
         | Drones are the new infantry and land mines. For sea battles
         | missiles still dominate, since all you need to do is destroy
         | the ship with the drones.
         | 
         | Drones fly around and autonomously eliminate targets while
         | maintaining perimeters, which replaces infantry doing the same
         | thing. Drones are easy to launch from land-based bases and due
         | to their limited range are best suited to land-based
         | operations.
         | 
         | Aerial drones are easily countered by autonomous weapons
         | systems that fire on drones quickly and accurately. Drones are
         | able to be disabled with a single large bullet, which makes
         | their cost exceptional once countered. I expect that land based
         | drones will become a pretty big thing, since they can take
         | advantage of cover and camouflage.
        
           | wearywanderer wrote:
           | The line between drone and missile is fuzzy at best. Most of
           | the distinguishing characteristics often cited in these
           | conversations are wrong. For instance, missiles are usually
           | powered by rockets, but many missiles are powered by jet
           | engines instead. Drones are usually meant to be reusable, but
           | the first drones ever made were specifically expendable
           | (which is why they are named after drone bees, which fly once
           | before dying.) Loiter munitions are sometimes considered
           | drones instead of missiles, but nobody doubts that a tomahawk
           | cruise missile is a missile, and yet, a modern tomahawk is
           | also a loiter munition that can cruise in a circle for
           | _hours_.
           | 
           | Sometimes autonomy is cited as a key characteristic of
           | drones. But the first drones were pure-RC with no autonomy at
           | all, while there are a myriad of autonomous missiles and non-
           | autonomous human-guided missiles. So autonomy is not a
           | distinguishing characteristic either.
        
             | magicsmoke wrote:
             | It feels like most of the recent fascination with drones is
             | due to overlap with civilian off-the-shelf technology and
             | the fantasy of being able to buy something that could
             | potentially go toe to toe with advanced militaries. When in
             | fact, militaries have always had "aerial munitions with
             | varying degrees of intelligence and maneuverability and
             | propulsion methods selected based on
             | speed/maneuverability/range tradeoffs." An off the shelf
             | quadcoptor is as far from military weaponry as a hand
             | calculator is from a supercomputer even if they're both
             | calculating machines.
             | 
             | It's weird seeing this fascination with drones yet not
             | seeing an analogous fascination for Toyota trucks.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_War
        
         | fighterpilot wrote:
         | Plausible.
         | 
         | One thing that makes China today different to the US of WW2 is
         | that China's export oriented economy would collapse in a war
         | with the West and their industrial production capabilities
         | would be hurt significantly along with that.
        
           | jude- wrote:
           | Doubtful. The CCP runs a command economy. It doesn't need to
           | sell its goods to finance a war when the state can simply
           | force the economy to produce the means of war.
           | 
           | Want to stop China from waging war? Knock out its means of
           | production -- target its imports.
        
             | godtoldmetodoit wrote:
             | Agreed - in this awful scenario where the US is fighting
             | China, their economy would absolutely crater as the US
             | shoots any ship heading towards Chinese ports after the
             | embargo was declared.
             | 
             | China can't feed itself.
             | 
             | China only produces a third of the oil it consumes.
             | 
             | If your people begin to starve as soon as war starts and
             | you all of a sudden have 1/3rd the oil you used to....
             | well, that's not exactly a recipe for success.
        
             | fighterpilot wrote:
             | China has a mixed economy, not a command economy.
             | 
             | My point is that the analogy of US in WW2 doesn't really
             | hold up because the US had an excellent economy throughout
             | WW2 relative to others which fueled their excess industrial
             | production. China would be in the opposite situation -
             | economic collapse.
             | 
             | Would China be able to maintain industrial production by
             | forcing workers and firms to produce equipment despite
             | economic collapse? Perhaps. But the US in WW2 shouldn't be
             | considered historical precedent, due to the above
             | distinction.
        
         | magicsmoke wrote:
         | A drone with the same range as a missile would be
         | indistinguishable from a missile. A drone without the same
         | range as a missile would likely have its carrier detected and
         | destroyed before it can get in range to release it's drones.
         | Drones are great for irregular forces that can hide among
         | civilian populations or in dense terrain to have short ranged
         | air strike capabilities cheaply, but they are not substitute
         | for long range naval strikes.
        
           | justaguy88 wrote:
           | The drone swarm can have a carrier vehicle, like a (perhaps
           | autonomous) big plane or sub to get it within range
        
             | magicsmoke wrote:
             | And I suppose the carrier vehicle is somehow invulnerable
             | to missiles? In fact, why wouldn't it just carry missiles
             | in the first place?
        
             | ericd wrote:
             | Or perhaps a missile full of drones, similar to those bombs
             | with lots of guided submunitions.
        
               | aerostable_slug wrote:
               | Tomahawk TLAM/D carries 166 submunitions in 24 canisters.
               | There's no reason those submunitions need to be dumb --
               | or stationary for that matter.
        
               | MikeDelta wrote:
               | Indeed, cheap and available in massive amounts also makes
               | very dangerous.
               | 
               | Funny that we see this in various computer games, ships
               | with drone bays. What you mention would be a drone
               | missile perhaps?
        
         | sklearncowboy wrote:
         | China was already way past this by the late 90s.
         | 
         | This is old thinking. Same battlefield with different
         | technology.
         | 
         | The war that changed everything was the 1st Gulf War.
         | 
         | 20 years ago they could see how stupid it was to use weapons to
         | blow things up that cost more than what you were blowing up.
         | 
         | Our military has already been lapped. We only don't think so
         | because we waste so much money on outdated expensive weapon
         | systems and then use the amount spent as proof we have the
         | better military.
        
       | aaron695 wrote:
       | FYI 'swarms' is a magic word.
       | 
       | It's meaningless and is introduced to conflate the fact what is
       | talked about is not currently possible or stupid. These words are
       | used a lot in tech.
       | 
       | > using autonomous drone swarms against a soft target like a
       | stadium full of people
       | 
       | This can be done with a signal crop dusting drone, but if you say
       | that it's easier to understand it's just the Black Sunday movie -
       | https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0075765/ or a normal crop dusting
       | plane or one automatic weapon where every bullet is a mini
       | suicide drone.
       | 
       | "six drones engaged in complex maneuvers in low visibility
       | conditions, buzzing the destroyer" is not possible. If it was
       | 'one' drone it's obvious there's no way it can get to that
       | location.
       | 
       | It is true Slaughterbots has scared the unwashed masses.
       | Currently a glass window stops a drone, they are currently not
       | far off the Dalek's inability to go up stairs.
       | 
       | Is it good to keep the public scared about drones? Drones
       | greatest ability in war and terrorism atm is the fear.
        
       | charlescearl wrote:
       | Is there a comprehensive analysis of the use of drones in
       | policing. Further, are there analyses of the way in which private
       | security companies (G4S) are employing drones in their
       | operations?
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | samuelizdat wrote:
       | Wouldn't the solution be jamming or EMP related? Of course,
       | because the technological system must propagate itself at any
       | cost this idea is counter-intuitive. Technological progress is
       | seen as bending towards an inherent good. People never stop to
       | think if it will be bad. Now people are to live in fear of drone
       | swarms because nobody has autonomy in the technological system.
       | People think they control technology, but it is really technology
       | that controls us.
       | 
       | -sent from my iPhone
        
         | swiley wrote:
         | At least in the US we're already surrounded by people with
         | firearms. The situation isn't really very new IMO. People have
         | already started committing crimes using quadcoptors and
         | _everyone_ knows about them now. You don 't hear about them
         | shooting people because that's _already_ illegal and we have
         | social structures in place to deal with it.
         | 
         | TL;DR if anything this is an improvement because it makes the
         | 2A thing make more sense (almost no one is building guided
         | missiles in their backyard except that one youtuber who's
         | trying to make his model rockets land on their own.)
        
         | dogman144 wrote:
         | I'd back up and say it might be even more simple from a
         | cybersec perspective, holding off the military drone
         | capabilities and related hardening.
         | 
         | Embedded consumer electronics/IoT generally have awful security
         | configs and an internet connection. Consumer-grade, and I bet a
         | fair bit of the more high powered drones, are vulnerable to
         | this same risk.
         | 
         | I'd love an educated opinion on this, but to the extent I've
         | thought about this as well - many of these drones must be vuln
         | to some form of remote code exploitation and shutdowns, if you
         | can get a targeted signal to hit their admin "beacon" or w/e.
         | 
         | As consumer drones do show up in warfare a fair bit, this feels
         | like a possible counter-drone route to explore.
        
         | Manuel_D wrote:
         | I suspect that jamming would push people to make drones fully
         | autonomous, so that they're capable of carrying out their
         | mission even is comms are down.
        
         | greedo wrote:
         | Jamming would address inter-swarm communications, but then
         | they'd revert to solo operations. EMP isn't realistic, but
         | microwave systems have already been tested:
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hlmf032NmHU
        
           | anigbrowl wrote:
           | Birds and insects are able to swarm without telepathy, and
           | the dynamics of this are fairly well understood. I don't
           | think this is going to be such a big issue for drones; if
           | anything, you'll get swarms of ultra-cheap tiny drones whose
           | job is to swoop around chirping to each other until they get
           | jammed, then take note of where the jamming signal seems to
           | originate, GTFO, and convey that geographical information
           | back to base at the earliest opportunity. The more
           | enthusiastically you jam, the sooner you become the target of
           | a ballistic mortar or guided missile that's fatally attracted
           | to your jamming device.
        
           | jude- wrote:
           | Jamming wouldn't break line-of-sight or optical
           | communication. Imagine drones that can simply _see_ one
           | another, and communicate by changing color (e.g. with LEDs).
        
             | aerostable_slug wrote:
             | Lasers are already used for inter-satellite communications,
             | so there's no need to just use gross color shifting (though
             | perhaps the BOM impact would be less).
             | 
             | Related side story: my resume had something about PKI in it
             | so I kept getting calls from Boeing recruiters trying to
             | fit me into a job doing said satellite laser comms
             | (presumably using PKI). I kept telling them I knew nothing
             | optics-related aside from basic Newtonian stuff, and they
             | kept calling me back. I hope they finally found someone.
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | There is no practical way to use EMP as a defense against small
         | drones. That's something that only works in movies, not real
         | life. Generating enough power to disrupt electronics at a
         | useful range requires a powerful explosion.
         | 
         | The military uses a mix of jammers, small missiles, guns, and
         | (soon) lasers.
        
           | Animats wrote:
           | There are some jammers, but they're not too useful if the
           | drone is programmed to head out of jammer range if jammed.
           | Currently, the most useful weapons against small drones are
           | compressed air guns that fire nets.[1]
           | 
           | [1] https://youtu.be/M6tT1GapCe4
        
             | mLuby wrote:
             | If we're talking a commercial quadcopter drone, is it
             | feasible to auto-target it via microphones and then shoot
             | some CIWS at it? Something like this
             | https://youtu.be/LThD0FMvTFU?t=42 but drones and bullets
             | instead of mortars and lasers.
             | 
             | It's be nice if you could slap an anti-drone turret onto
             | your vehicle to protect the airspace for a hundred meters.
             | 
             | Maybe jamming exceeds commercial drones' flight ceiling,
             | but if not, dropping stuff from high up always does damage.
        
               | Animats wrote:
               | There are a number of bulky systems intended for larger
               | targets which will work against drones, but most are not
               | very portable. Ship-mounted systems such as CWIS do
               | work.[1] But all those shells that don't hit the target
               | land someplace.
               | 
               | [1] https://youtu.be/3UVuV5WvraQ
        
               | nradov wrote:
               | The land based CIWS uses self destructing shells so any
               | that didn't hit the target explode into small, relatively
               | safe fragments. But it's still risky to use in populated
               | areas
               | 
               | https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/36412/centurions-
               | roari...
        
               | mLuby wrote:
               | > But all those shells that don't hit the target land
               | someplace.
               | 
               | Just don't miss! It's only a few hundred meters out.
               | 
               | Oh CWIS are only ship-mounted? I thought it was a general
               | term. I like PDC better anyway. #TheExpanse
               | 
               | Nice video--are those all tracers though?
        
               | sbierwagen wrote:
               | The land-based version of CIWS is called Centurion:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phalanx_CIWS#Centurion_C-
               | RAM
               | 
               | C-RAM shells are _supposed_ to self-destruct, but EOD
               | guys will tell you that fuzes do not have a 100%
               | operational rate. Another problem is cost and magazine
               | size:
               | 
               | >The Block 1A and newer (pneumatic driven) CIWS mounts
               | fire at a rate of 4,500 rounds per minute with a
               | 1,550-round magazine.
               | 
               | >Shells fired by the Phalanx cost around $30 each and the
               | gun typically fires 100 or more when engaging a
               | target.[14]
               | 
               | So it's about three grand to zap one drone, and you get
               | 15 shootdowns before a human needs to shovel more ammo
               | into the turret. That would make it vulnerable to a
               | saturation attack. A hundred drones carrying grenades
               | that home in on the CIWS radar would be tough to counter.
        
               | ericd wrote:
               | > Nice video--are those all tracers though?
               | 
               | Well, it's video game footage (ARMA 3, according to the
               | title).
        
               | [deleted]
        
       | blutack wrote:
       | Military drones also remove part of the political calculation
       | otherwise involved in attacking somewhere.
       | 
       | When soldiers are put in situations where they are being killed,
       | in a fairly free society someone is generally going to ask the
       | question of why they are there and whether they should continue
       | to be.
       | 
       | Loss of military drones is only reported in specialised press if
       | at all.
        
         | FredPret wrote:
         | With human soldiers, voters and family of voters get killed.
         | 
         | With drones, it's just some robots that were broken by the
         | enemy.
        
       | jessaustin wrote:
       | _In 2018, an unidentified nonstate actor used two explosive-
       | bearing commercial drones in the attempted assassination of
       | Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro._
       | 
       | It's funny to see the phrase "nonstate actor" here, when we're
       | assured that ransomware script kiddies who use Coinbase are all
       | "state actors". Maduro knows who sent the drones. [0] Why is even
       | IEEE Spectrum in ideological thrall to the military-industrial
       | complex?
       | 
       | [0] https://thegrayzone.com/2019/08/06/interview-venezuelan-
       | pres...
        
         | splithalf wrote:
         | In theory it could all be a vast conspiracy of the news media
         | to misinform people, sure, but that would be a conspiracy
         | theory.
        
         | LargoLasskhyfv wrote:
         | Why would think that the IEEE has been enabled by something
         | else than the military-industrial complex?
        
           | jrochkind1 wrote:
           | Indeed. 1989:
           | 
           | > For computer scientists, the role federal funding plays in
           | shaping research in their field presents both good news and
           | bad news, according to the preliminary report on a study by
           | the Association for Computing Machinery's Science Policy
           | Committee of the Special Interest Group on Automata and
           | Compatability Theory. The good news is the fact that no
           | abatement is in sight for the dramatic rise in federal
           | support of computer science research
           | 
           | https://www.the-scientist.com/profession/does-dod-funding-
           | sk...
        
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