[HN Gopher] iOS 14 tracking changes sees big ad spending drop, t...
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       iOS 14 tracking changes sees big ad spending drop, tumbling prices
        
       Author : CharlesW
       Score  : 196 points
       Date   : 2021-05-31 14:55 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.imore.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.imore.com)
        
       | bigyikes wrote:
       | This will bring only good things to the ecosystem. Your app can't
       | support itself without tracking, and your users don't want to
       | pay? Maybe your app doesn't provide as much value as you think.
       | Advertising is a race to the bottom, so kudos to Apple for
       | raising the bar for everybody.
        
         | wccrawford wrote:
         | Another comment here suggested that non-free social media would
         | see rich people getting wider distribution.
         | 
         | And I think that's exactly what would happen.
         | 
         | Freemium dating sites let you use the most basic features for
         | free, but to actually reach more than a few potential dates,
         | you have to pay.
         | 
         | Freemium social media might also do the same. For free, maybe
         | you get sent to just a few of your closest friends. For money,
         | you can be sent to all your friends _and_ random strangers.
         | 
         | And perhaps you have access to flashier messages and better
         | icons. Perhaps meme/picture posting is limited for free.
         | 
         | It's easy to think that the users would just go elsewhere, but
         | if Facebook can't afford to operate without tricks like that,
         | smaller sites have even less chance.
         | 
         | And once that door is opened, it quickly gets wider and wider.
         | Look at DLC and IAP in games now. It used to be non-existent.
         | And then "horse armor" appeared and sold like hotcakes, despite
         | all the protests. From there, we ended up with gacha games that
         | absolutely _abuse_ people with certain mental instabilities,
         | often when they have money to burn, but often even when they
         | don 't.
         | 
         | As much as I hate ads, I'd hate to see social media get
         | _worse_.
        
           | criddell wrote:
           | For many of us, the ads aren't necessarily the problem, its
           | the surveillance.
        
           | manquer wrote:
           | LinkedIn has this setup for years . It has not impacted
           | anyone all that much.
           | 
           | Only professional influencer would _need_ to pay in this kind
           | of model that doesn 't seem all that bad to me.
        
           | tomjen3 wrote:
           | Or better. You could take the CS:GO model and only sell
           | skins. Seriously skins can sell for a fortune and they do
           | absolutely nothing.
        
           | krrrh wrote:
           | > if Facebook can't afford to operate without tricks like
           | that, smaller sites have even less chance.
           | 
           | It could be the opposite.
           | 
           | The ambitions of social media operators need to be downsized.
           | One of the most salient data points is that WhatsApp served a
           | half billion users with 50 employees when they were acquired
           | by Facebook. And reportedly they were profitable at that
           | point by charging $1 per user per year after the first year.
           | By 2018 Signal had already made a substantial entry into the
           | messaging market with [only 2.3 FTE engineers on
           | average](https://signal.org/blog/signal-foundation/) (I'm not
           | sure on the current headcount but I'm guessing it's still on
           | the order of magnitude of the WhatsApp numbers), and it is
           | self-sustaining based largely on a $50m endowment provided by
           | one individual (Brian Acton, not ironically the co-founder of
           | WhatsApp).
           | 
           | It's totally conceivable that for the type of social media
           | that people prefer (no algorithm in the timeline, no
           | tracking, etc.) a very small organization could provide it.
           | 
           | Could the Signal foundation develop a competitor to Twitter
           | or Facebook, or could the social features and groups in apps
           | like Signal or Telegram (also a relatively small team)
           | continue to chip away at the jobs that people hire Facebook
           | for? I don't see a strong argument against this.
           | 
           | Andrew Carnegie decided to put libraries in cities all across
           | America because he thought he could make a major contribution
           | to the needs of the day through improving access to literacy
           | and self-education to those who otherwise couldn't afford it.
           | From what I can tell [Brian
           | Acton](https://www.forbesindia.com/article/special/i-am-the-
           | david-g...) is doing the same by ensuring that private
           | communication is free and available to even the least amongst
           | us. Why would we assume that we'll see less and not more of
           | this sort of thing?
           | 
           | > Acton: In some ways, I'm the David going against the
           | Goliath that I created. I think that I stand on my principles
           | the most, having been in the industry and seeing how the
           | industry has developed around advertising and behaviour-
           | tracking and user-tracking, I'm here to stand on my
           | principles and present alternatives. I'm not going to just
           | say the world should be a different place. I'm actually going
           | to try and build the world a better place and that's why I
           | wake up every morning. That's why I go to work every morning
           | and that's why I don't sit on a beach and sip cocktails.
        
           | xwdv wrote:
           | Stop conflating someone paying for digital goods as being a
           | "rich person".
           | 
           | If you're serious about dating, you could afford to spend $10
           | a month. Most people can make $10 in less than an hour of
           | work. You could probably afford $40 dollars a month easily.
           | Don't worry, your actual dates will probably cost you more
           | than that and often you'll get nothing in return...
           | 
           | People have been sucking on the teet of free social media for
           | so long that the thought of even paying a couple dollars for
           | something makes them feel they are buying a luxury good, when
           | you are literally just giving up some pocket change.
           | 
           | Meanwhile, they buy $5 lattes and $10 burgers a few times a
           | week and pay god knows how much for a myriad of streaming
           | services, without a second thought.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | slver wrote:
         | It's very convenient to conclude "bad things happen to you?
         | maybe you're a shitty person", but that's not how reality
         | works.
         | 
         | Users may not want to pay for myriad of reasons, like unfair
         | competition, or competition of lower quality where the user
         | can't clearly determine the quality they receive,
         | preconditioning and other existing biases, and so on.
         | 
         | How do you think our media found themselves in a continued
         | decline over the last few decades? They were paid, but they had
         | to focus on online presence and ads as low-quality blogs and
         | fake news replaced them. People don't want to pay for quality
         | journalism, because they can't tell the difference. This
         | doesn't mean quality journalism doesn't provide value.
         | 
         | Furthermore, ads by themselves are not a bad service in our
         | world. It's basically a business saying "hey I'm here, I have
         | this to offer, if you want it". Is that such a bad concept? Of
         | course there are scams, and so on. But that's not INHERENT to
         | ads right? It's one thing to fight for higher quality ads,
         | another to hate ads entirely.
        
           | willis936 wrote:
           | >"hey I'm here, I have this to offer, if you want it"
           | 
           | This is a lie to children. It's like saying the decision to
           | drop nuclear bombs in WWII was made to bring Japan to
           | surrender and not a show of force to Russia. It's simply a
           | false dichotomy.
           | 
           | Ads exist to maximize profit and its done by pushing
           | individual rights back. Nobody voted to give up privacy to
           | the government or private sector.
           | 
           | The answer to your burning question is simple: people don't
           | give a shit about your product or your ad. Sheep are shaped
           | by what they see. You're paying for a stake in the perverse
           | attention economy.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | alkonaut wrote:
           | > "hey I'm here, I have this to offer, if you want it"
           | 
           | As always there is a loud but tiny minority that thinks all
           | ads are bad. Most of us (I assume) think ads are mostly fine
           | but tracking is bad.
        
             | himujjal wrote:
             | exactly. duckduckgo has ads that don't track you. its okay.
             | i see them whenever i search and sometimes maybe click on
             | them to see what exactly is going on. Thing is they don't
             | track and I am okay with it.
        
             | permo-w wrote:
             | I think that mostly ads are bad, but sometimes they're
             | fine. There are plenty of other cases of them being a
             | negative for society, and, to me, a few where they're good
        
       | nchrys wrote:
       | I am really puzzled by the negative sentiment around adtech on
       | Hacker News, especially since I would guess that a lot of people
       | here have a salary that depends directly or indirectly on
       | advertising. "Tracking" gets a lot of bad press, so much so that
       | I sometimes wonder if this is not organized by the tech giants
       | (Apple, Google, Facebook) who have access to their own first
       | party and who thus have much less to lose when cross site
       | tracking disappears. Adtech providers only have access to
       | products you buy/see, for a limited time and without any personal
       | data, meanwhile Google and Facebook know everything about you,
       | your friends, your center of interests the places you go to,
       | along with your name but somehow everyone seems hell-bent on
       | abolishing 3rd-party cookies. Apple's own apps are not subject to
       | this change, and as noted by other commenters this will probably
       | shift budgets to subscription of which Apple takes its cut. All
       | this will further the supremacy of walled-gardens and big tech,
       | at the expense of smaller independent players.
       | 
       | I'll be honest, there _is_ a creepy feeling when being tracked
       | cross-site, and adtech providers have collectively failed at
       | providing explanations, and a transparent account of how this
       | works and why this is useful. They have also relied on
       | fingerprinting, which has hurt the credibility of the field. The
       | issue is that the replacement that are currently in the works
       | (https://github.com/WICG/floc and
       | https://github.com/WICG/turtledove/blob/main/FLEDGE.md) are
       | extremely complex, will still dramatically impact adtech
       | performance and only improve privacy for a very contrived
       | definition of the concept which incidentally benefits once again
       | big tech vendors...
       | 
       | As to the effectiveness of advertising, removing tracking _will_
       | have a huge impact. And this affects all players in the value
       | chain, not only adtech providers but also publishers and more
       | importantly advertisers which will see their return on ad spent
       | severely impacted. There is a real of loss  "social welfare" (I
       | mean in a game-theoretic sense, but also for real if you believe
       | in capitalism) if tracking is disabled. The freakonomics article
       | gets cited a lot but the industry as a whole is moving forward
       | with a greater emphasis on proving incremental sales. Advanced
       | clients (who can spend billions per year) have real statisticians
       | doing permanent randomized control trials proving that every
       | dollar spent _is_ providing incremental sales. I work for an
       | adtech company and we have automatic RCTs for every single
       | client, and guess what, advertising works for most clients. This
       | is on top of fact that we are measuring the effectiveness of
       | dollars spent on us, _in addition_ to the dollars spent on
       | competitors /other channels on which we have no control of
       | course. The fact that Uber could see no impact when going from
       | 150m to 50m is a testament to the incompetency of their CMO,
       | which could not be bothered to actually measure and pilot the
       | campaigns correctly, not the effectiveness of adtech as a whole.
       | Thoughts are my own not my employer's.
        
         | doobeeus wrote:
         | Well said. What if Apple's popup said "personalization" instead
         | of "tracking"? Advertising works well for most of us, most of
         | the time. Ironically, Apple is spending significant sums on
         | advertising that touts how they are crippling advertising to
         | protect your privacy.
        
       | kevinventullo wrote:
       | There's a sense in which free ad-supported apps are
       | "redistributive". Whether you're rich or poor, Facebook costs the
       | same and the experience and features you have access to are
       | identical. Effectively, the rich users are subsidizing the app
       | for the poor users (the rich users' eyeballs being worth much
       | more). I personally view that as a strong upside compared to paid
       | models.
       | 
       | I'm not sure where I'm going with this. What does paid social
       | media look like? Perhaps more like traditional media: only deep
       | pockets will have access to "virality" and wide distribution. I
       | could certainly see a market for that with the Instagram crowd.
        
         | brundolf wrote:
         | Maybe some room in the market will be made for federated and/or
         | nonprofit social-media?
        
         | phh wrote:
         | I totally agree with you. I wouldn't necessarily say that rich
         | people subsidize poor ones, other one we wouldn't see Facebook
         | racing for Brazil and Google racing for India. But yes, one
         | major property of ads is how it adapts to the user's revenue.
         | 
         | I believe that anyone who wants to take on ads, need to
         | understand this first. And to accomplish an ad-free realk, one
         | needs to somehow have people pay differently based on their
         | incomes. And I can't see any way without tracking on how to do
         | that.
         | 
         | One company who managed to do that, to some extent, is Netflix.
         | Their price range from 3$/month (lowest tier in India) to
         | 20$/month (highest tier in France), for pretty much the same
         | service. It's still only one order of magnitude of adaptation.
         | While ads scale from pretty much 0 (poor people who can
         | "mis"spend only 5$/month), to I think maybe 100$ for some
         | clicks.
         | 
         | Basically, from my point of view, ads are a way to raise money
         | based on what people can give, while removing the free-rider
         | problem that doing it directly would raise. Can we make a
         | useful crypto money that fixes this? (you're allowed to a big
         | computation budget, since ads have a very expensive global
         | budget)
        
         | supernovae wrote:
         | It's been years since there was organic viral videos... that
         | ship sailed - we're at the point of pay for play, sex or
         | extremely high risk/danger/endangerment content for eyeballs..
        
         | hedora wrote:
         | In the past, we had paid social media (kind of) with services
         | like CompuServe, AOL, etc.
         | 
         | People tended to self-segment by demographics. Also, there was
         | more than one network to choose from, since things were
         | segmented by which internet connection you had. (This was also
         | the heyday of BBS's and Usenet, which probably wasn't a
         | coincidence.)
         | 
         | Maybe having N vertically integrated communities with different
         | norms is better than what facebook, twitter, etc built via
         | their horizontally-integrated services.
        
           | specialist wrote:
           | Most (all?) prior mediums were initially pay to play. Print,
           | radio, telegraph, TV, cable, fax, ATMs.
           | 
           | Then there's some kind of phase change. Like maybe when costs
           | reduce enough for Metcalfe's Law to kick-in.
           | 
           | [I don't quite recall what some other theorists have said.
           | Shirky's observations about cost of coordination. McLuhan's
           | distinctions between passive and active engagement (aka push
           | vs pull).]
           | 
           | Apple's privacy power play may be the first time someone
           | manages to put the toothpaste back into the tube, for an
           | entire medium and by extension ecosystem.
           | 
           | Some mediums, like rail and phones, manage to remain pay to
           | play. Maybe there's something to be learned by compare and
           | contrast.
        
             | lanstin wrote:
             | Newspaper advertising never had an incentive to attack
             | newspaper readers.
        
               | majewsky wrote:
               | > Newspaper advertising never had _the means_ to attack
               | newspaper readers.
               | 
               | FTFY - They totally would have done it if it had been
               | possible and profitable.
        
         | banach wrote:
         | These are not the only alternatives. Messaging apps allow
         | people to stay in touch with each other without any of the
         | timeline corporate surveillance society nonsense.
        
         | arkadiyt wrote:
         | DuckDuckGo has advertisements and is profitable. Nothing about
         | the free-ad model for apps requires tracking users.
        
           | adrr wrote:
           | Search ads you don't need user targeting. You target on the
           | search term and most likely it will be relevant for the user.
           | Only standard display ads need targeting to be able to show
           | relevant ads to the user.
        
             | criddell wrote:
             | There's always the context of the page on which the ad will
             | appear. If I search for "teach your kid how to read", the
             | search engine can display ads based on the query and the
             | destination page seems like it should show the exact same
             | types of ads.
        
             | lanstin wrote:
             | Content based ads still seem valuable. If I am on Don's how
             | to fix something pages, then add for something fixing tools
             | seem possible to sell without involving my data
        
         | have_faith wrote:
         | > the rich users are subsidizing the app for the poor users
         | 
         | That would only hold if the majority of paid ad placements on a
         | social media site targeted rich people. As is evident by the
         | ads that appear surrounding elections, the ads targeting
         | average people to dump their savings into crypto and all of the
         | gambling (might as well be gambling...) gaming ads that doesn't
         | seem like a safe assumption to make although I have no data to
         | support either assumption.
        
           | howinteresting wrote:
           | It is well established that the ARPU from richer demographics
           | (income levels, countries etc) is much higher than that from
           | poorer ones. The redistributive effect is real, though
           | perhaps there may be other ways (e.g. reparations) that have
           | less harmful side effects.
        
         | msoad wrote:
         | This is something I thought about too. The dilemma for Facebook
         | and Twitter to offer paid service is interesting
         | 
         | Wealthy eyeballs worth more (a lot). Wealthy people most likely
         | to pay to not see ads. A super high price to justify not
         | showing ads to wealthy people will make the whole offering
         | moot.
         | 
         | I don't have the numbers but if it's anything like the rest of
         | the economy, top 10% is probably spending something like 60% of
         | total spent. So removing the top 10% from the targetable
         | population for ads can be a huge hit to ad revenues.
        
       | tfang17 wrote:
       | New change has been a huge pain for developers. Apple makes these
       | new privacy announcements and takes all the credit, but pushes
       | work to iOS devs to actually implement.
        
       | iLikeFreeData wrote:
       | Ads arent going away, at best you are going to get generic ads
       | that are not relevant. At worse Apple is ramping up their own
       | tracking/ad service.
        
       | AgentOrange1234 wrote:
       | It seems somehow just right that an article about this has a
       | super annoying video playing above the content, scrolling with
       | you as you read.
        
       | bilal4hmed wrote:
       | This is awesome news. We need the web to not be reliant on ads
       | and also build the expectation amongst users that they need to
       | pay for articles/services etc. just like how they would in the
       | real world. This is the first step in doing both
        
         | baby wrote:
         | Can't wait for gmaps, gmail, facebook, twitter, hackernews,
         | reddit to have paywalls
        
           | beagle3 wrote:
           | OpenStreetMaps doesn't have paywalls. In sone things it is
           | worse, in my day to day use it is better, the only thing I
           | use gmaps/Waze/Amaps is for live traffic.
           | 
           | HN has neither paywalls nor ads.
           | 
           | Fastmail has a paywall compared to gmail - and I gladly pay
           | it. There's no ad supported option ttbomk.
           | 
           | The only two that don't have a real alternative are the
           | metcalfed Twitter and FB (and the live traffic feature in
           | maps)
        
             | bilal4hmed wrote:
             | Twitter will have pay for option soon.
             | 
             | Google Workspace under enterprise agreement is also far
             | better for privacy if people like Gmail.
        
           | majewsky wrote:
           | > Can't wait for [...] gmail [...] to have paywalls
           | 
           | With my mail service, I pay 1EUR per month for my mailbox (on
           | a pre-paid model where I deposit 20EUR at a time into my
           | account and get reminded when the balance runs low). That's a
           | price that I gladly pay for the benefit of knowing that I'm
           | actually the customer.
        
           | bilal4hmed wrote:
           | if you want privacy, you gotta pay. Thats how ads disappear.
           | People have to charge for services and people have to pay to
           | access them.
        
           | Marsymars wrote:
           | I would gladly pay monthly to receive Google Maps without
           | ads.
        
       | armagon wrote:
       | "A new report says that iOS 14 tracking changes could cost the
       | advertising revenue billions if an early trend in spending
       | decline continues."
       | 
       | Does it not follow then that advertisers are _saving_ billions of
       | dollars?
       | 
       | Now, admittedly, the advertisers aren't going to be getting now
       | what they used to get, but this Freakonomics Podcast episode,
       | "Does Advertising Actually Work? (Part 2: Digital) (Ep. 441)"
       | https://freakonomics.com/podcast/advertising-part-2/ makes me
       | wonder how much it'll really impact the people who pay for
       | advertising.
        
         | bpodgursky wrote:
         | > Does it not follow then that advertisers are saving billions
         | of dollars?
         | 
         | No -- if the targeting is less effective, the advertisers are
         | not getting the same incremental value from the ads.
         | 
         | The ads are cheap, but draw in less total revenue for the
         | company, saving nothing. The bid prices are just lower on
         | untargeted ad slots, adjusting to the lower CPM / lower lift.
         | 
         | Edit: Truly, the best part of HN are the Dunning-Kruger
         | programmers who once read a substack post about advertising,
         | and now believe they have deep hidden insight that a hundred
         | thousand marketing professionals, running marketing campaigns
         | as their job, every day, have not figured out -- aha, internet
         | advertising doesn't work!
        
           | stingraycharles wrote:
           | On the other hand, for the _publishers_ this may be a net
           | win. I've always argued that very narrow targeting mostly
           | benefits the advertisers, and the publishers are left with a
           | very small audience that yields a lot, and a very large
           | audience that is difficult to sell.
           | 
           | Of course, this may not be the case for Facebook et al, but
           | it's definitely the case for a lot of apps and websites that
           | live off advertising. Now, without super narrow targeting,
           | they are suddenly able to sell a lot more inventory.
        
             | gleb wrote:
             | Unlikely. You make more money by breaking a beef into
             | multiple cuts for different customers than grinding the
             | whole thing and selling burgers only.
        
               | thebean11 wrote:
               | Assuming you can find a buyer for enough of those
               | individual cuts yes. If most of them have no buyers
               | you're better off selling burgers which I think was the
               | point.
        
           | thehours wrote:
           | Given how rampant ad fraud is in programmatic, I wonder how
           | much revenue _actually_ drops for these companies, relative
           | to the decreased ad spend.
           | 
           | Uber's [1] experience is one example:
           | 
           | "We turned off two thirds of our ad spend - $100m out of
           | annual spend of $150m - and basically saw no change in our
           | number of rider app installs. What we saw is a lot of
           | installs we thought had come through paid channels suddenly
           | came through organic."
           | 
           | [1] https://mackgrenfell.com/blog/how-did-uber-waste-so-much-
           | ad-...
        
             | toast0 wrote:
             | Even without ad fraud, you have things like user wants to
             | install Uber, so searches for Uber in a web search. First
             | link on the page is an ad to install Uber, maybe a couple
             | more ads, then first organic search result is a link to the
             | Uber home page, and maybe the second result is to install
             | it. If the ad weren't there, the user would probably
             | install organically, but since it's there and at the top of
             | the page, it's likely to get clicked and cost money.
        
               | xuki wrote:
               | The ad in that case is to prevent Lyft from getting that
               | ad spot. Fucked up, I know.
        
               | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
               | The google shakedown- "It'd be terrible if ya know Lyft,
               | got that top spot..."
        
               | xxpor wrote:
               | How is that fucked up? There's a certain number of slots,
               | and _someone_ is going to fill them. It 's like in a
               | grocery store. If Kellogg's doesn't offer Kroger a price
               | they like, they'll just stock General Mills instead...
               | that's just business.
        
           | chmod775 wrote:
           | > No -- if the targeting is less effective, the advertisers
           | are not getting the same incremental value from the ads.
           | 
           | I mean... No again. Kinda. Advertising isn't magically gonna
           | make money appear in the pockets of your customers.
           | 
           | Advertising influences how people distribute their income,
           | influencing them this way or that (at least that's the goal).
           | 
           | If advertising becomes worse for everyone, which it did,
           | those weights are just scaled by a fixed amount, arriving at
           | the same end result.
           | 
           | The only winners are those who didn't advertise at all and
           | only competed only on value. Those may see an uptick.
        
             | dividedbyzero wrote:
             | Not sure; targeted ads can work pretty well for small niche
             | businesses, getting the same amount of conversions through
             | untargeted ads may not be feasible. I could imagine those
             | getting hit harder by this change than, say, Uber, so
             | probably not quite the same end result.
        
               | chmod775 wrote:
               | I could see that. But you can still effectively target
               | niches with contextual ads.
        
               | dividedbyzero wrote:
               | Definitely. Is that something you can buy right now? I
               | was under the impression there was little to nothing
               | substantial in between untargeted and programmatic these
               | days
        
               | morelisp wrote:
               | We've been slowly refactoring our products to offer more
               | contextual possibilities (building more aggregations by
               | domains, keywords, etc. instead of audiences). No one is
               | interested in buying.
        
               | tormeh wrote:
               | I bet this is a result of customer self-selection. This
               | is all a hunch, but I bet a shit-ton that the advertisers
               | who actually care about good targeting only buy from a
               | small number of leading providers (Facebook, Google,
               | etc.) whose stats are not going to show up on HN.
        
               | morelisp wrote:
               | I am not involved at all in our sales department, and I
               | have no interest in being identified, so I can't offer
               | much more. We do have some very large customers, although
               | we are not always a large account for them. But maybe you
               | misunderstood - all our customers want "classical"
               | audience targeting, to the point they're refusing
               | contextual offerings even as GDPR regulations and
               | technology changes make the audience-based products ever
               | less efficient. If they want anything besides that, it's
               | cohorts, which they don't really understand but see as a
               | way to do targeting magically with storing cookies. If
               | they want anything besides that, it's some BI assistance
               | e.g. uplift models. Contextual is absolute last in line.
        
               | tormeh wrote:
               | Sounds like a principal-agent problem. The people
               | actually buying the ads on behalf of the customer don't
               | care about accuracy. Just train some model, no matter how
               | shitty, and call it "best-effort". Boxes are checked and
               | everyone's happy.
        
             | mbesto wrote:
             | > The only winners are those who didn't advertise at all
             | and only competed only on value.
             | 
             | I keep seeing this sentiment here on HN. What fantasy world
             | do people live in where advertising _can 't_ exist and
             | people can still find products/services?! It's existed for
             | centuries, the medium just changes over time.
             | 
             | The digital advertising world is far from perfect, but
             | suggesting it should outright not exist because we have
             | perfect information about goods and services is laughable.
        
               | chmod775 wrote:
               | That's not a sentiment, it's a logical conclusion when
               | applying basic mathematics as outlined in my comment.
               | 
               | In the remainder of your comment you are attacking a
               | straw man. I'll leave you to it.
        
               | FredPret wrote:
               | Your original comment ignores the fact that with perfect
               | ad targeting, there will be way more niche spending in
               | your budget since small companies can create and market
               | tightly targeted products cheaply. You'll be happier with
               | this outcome.
               | 
               | With totally untargeted advertising, the whole population
               | will get an ad mix that reflects aggregate spending
               | patterns. The niches will disappear. Only through massive
               | upfront investment into a major marketing campaign will
               | consumer spending shift to a new product. Only the
               | blandest, most mainstream, least interesting among us
               | will be happy with this outcome.
        
               | beagle3 wrote:
               | I don't know if there's some objective measure of
               | "percentage of sensory perception occupied by ads" but I
               | guess if there were it would be about 90% lower 50 years
               | ago - and still people found things.
               | 
               | It's not binary ads/no-ads, and not all are equal (e.g.
               | product placement is often subtle and not in-your-face).
               | 
               | It is not unthinkable that 95% of ad budget is wasted. (I
               | am sure the majority of ad budget 50 years ago was too,
               | even if it was just 70%)
        
               | pmontra wrote:
               | > 50 years ago - still people found things.
               | 
               | Going back even more in time, we had word of mouth and
               | domain experts to ask for advice. That works still now
               | but it's pretty slow for somebody aiming at establishing
               | a large scale business. Advertising money makes time run
               | faster. I can understand why they want ads. On the other
               | side I'm blocking all I can block and very rarely see an
               | ad (not every month) and yet I find what I want to buy.
        
           | danShumway wrote:
           | Maybe you're right. But if less advertising means that less
           | money is going into businesses, then ads don't make products
           | free, because they increase consumer spending and decrease
           | the efficiency of consumer spending. If what you're saying is
           | true, then advertising has a tangible cost for consumers.
           | 
           | There are three possible theories about how advertising
           | works:
           | 
           | A) Advertising increases consumer spending and makes
           | consumers spend dollars less efficiently based on attributes
           | like branding that are unrelated to quality. In which case,
           | all of this "advertising makes apps free" talk has been
           | really deceptive, because consumers who are viewing ads are
           | spending more money for worse/inflated products to
           | compensate.
           | 
           | In this world, it's worth asking what the costs of
           | advertising are and whether we want it to be the primary way
           | of funding the Internet.
           | 
           | OR
           | 
           | B) Consumer spending/efficiency doesn't change, consumers are
           | smart enough to buy the best product anyway, and the only
           | thing that changes is which companies get that money and have
           | brand recognition. In which case, it starts to become
           | difficult to argue that consumers opting out of ads they
           | don't want to see is particularly harmful. In the world where
           | advertising is just making people aware of new information
           | and helping them make informed purchasing choices, then it's
           | probably a good thing that across the board everyone is being
           | forced to cut down on the pointless noise that amounts to
           | companies trying to scream over each other and increasingly
           | hyper-target people in creepy ways.
           | 
           | If advertising does not increase consumer spending, and if
           | everyone is reducing spending and effectiveness by the same
           | amount on iOS, then this should be good for advertisers --
           | they'll spend less money on ads, and consumers will still
           | spend the same amount of money themselves. The only reason
           | that wouldn't be the case is if highly targeted ads actually
           | changes consumer behavior and spending habits in meaningful
           | ways -- but if we admit that, we need to admit that the
           | advertising industry is a lot more problematic and a lot less
           | "free" for consumers than it likes to claim.
           | 
           | OR
           | 
           | C) Advertising is a public good, and consumers actually want
           | to know about these products, and ultimately people want
           | targeted ads.
           | 
           | But this is obviously not the case for the majority of
           | advertising. If it was the case, than iOS's changes wouldn't
           | be a big deal. If consumers want targeted ads, they have the
           | option to keep allowing them in iOS. The whole reason we're
           | in this situation is because consumers have overwhelmingly
           | demonstrated that they do not want targeted ads.
           | 
           | So at best, the advertising industry can position itself as a
           | kind of metaphorical "vegetable", claiming that everyone
           | hates them but ultimately the world would be better if more
           | things were commercialized. But it's just not a realistic
           | theory, the data is pretty clear that consumers don't like
           | ads and it's very hard to argue that unrestrained
           | commercialism and forced targeting is good for society. There
           | are more efficient ways we could be doing this if our goal
           | was really just to make it easier for people to compare
           | products and learn about new solutions to their problems.
        
         | dillondoyle wrote:
         | It annoys me beyond belief that every single digital ads HN
         | thread this is the most upvoted hot take and it rarely comes
         | from someone working in buy side let alone ads in general.
         | 
         | Good or bad or neutral, FB's targeting specifically works
         | amazingly well and better than anything else for many buyers.
         | Especially for direct response ads.
         | 
         | If you can't make money selling your product from digital ads,
         | you're not saving dollars you're losing revenue. This is true
         | especially for 'internet only' upstart products, for example
         | everyone who gets stuck in for instance a $60 athletic short ad
         | loop as an example!! Sometimes you hear examples here about a
         | new product or kickstarter who pre-this type of digital would
         | probably not be able to launch or it would be much harder.
         | 
         | Brand advertising is different and targeting can definitely
         | argue doesn't matter as much.
         | 
         | But these changes has already changed how we spend money, and
         | we're tiny in the grand scheme.
         | 
         | The other point that always gets thrown out: It's also
         | incredibly simple to measure effectiveness or lift.
         | 
         | Staying with FB as an example, if you are selling a product it
         | can be as simple as using a unique link for your FB ads. ROI =
         | Purchases with that link / FB spend. FB also has a large set of
         | conversion tracking JS and offline like loading your retail
         | conversions to the platform to match.
         | 
         | But given the new rules FB is now 'modeling' ROAS and it has
         | decreased accuracy for us from something like previously
         | capturing 80-95% of conversions to sometimes less than half.
         | This makes a big difference in auto-optimizing on their end and
         | thus our ROAS.
         | 
         | And again sure, it gets complicated and definitely more snake
         | oil to buy some 3rd party ad tech which claims to model across
         | all your channels online and off. A lot of times that's gamed
         | or just a bunch of BS.
         | 
         | But another way to measure is say you're a larger brand buying
         | TV, digital, OOH etc the works. You can simply control by
         | making only one single change segregated to a control and
         | treatment geo/group before and after, measure delta.
        
           | clairity wrote:
           | in my experience, fb ads are a mixed bag. they tend to give
           | you the illusion of control without the commensurate results,
           | converting at a noticeably lower rate. sometimes prices are
           | low enough to compensate for the lower conversion, but not
           | usually.
           | 
           | though it might be changing with the normalization of the fb
           | marketplace, folks aren't usually looking for the things that
           | require advertising inducement on facebook, so there's a
           | significant intent/context mismatch.
        
           | tomjen3 wrote:
           | If Facebook ads are so good, why is it that I basically only
           | get shitty, general ads?
           | 
           | I am a single geek with disposable income, why is my feed not
           | filled with ads for cool tech products? I just checked and
           | the only Facebook ad was for cancer awareness.
        
             | xxpor wrote:
             | Are you actually allowing the tracking?
        
               | tomjen3 wrote:
               | I am an Android user. I don't have a choice :(
        
               | pmontra wrote:
               | You do. Install blockada. No more ads and trackers, even
               | in apps.
               | 
               | https://blokada.org/
        
             | Method-X wrote:
             | Do you have a PiHole?
        
           | rubyfan wrote:
           | I'm not deep in this space but was thinking something along
           | the lines of your response. If I understand it right,
           | advertisers will lose efficiency here but I'm skeptical that
           | it'll cost ad networks much because advertisers will still
           | need to reach an audience but will now suddenly be less
           | effective at targeting.
        
           | nojito wrote:
           | >Good or bad or neutral, FB's targeting specifically works
           | amazingly well and better than anything else for many buyers.
           | Especially for direct response ads.
           | 
           | A recent study says otherwise.
           | 
           | https://pubsonline.informs.org/doi/pdf/10.1287/mksc.2019.118.
           | ..
           | 
           | Do you have any studies supporting your claim that it "works
           | amazingly well"?
        
             | dillondoyle wrote:
             | I buy political ads for a living. I can (usually) make an
             | immediate positive return on investment running ads for
             | donations or growing an email list. Been doing this for
             | years and has raised millions for our clients.
             | 
             | I have tested and spent money on other platforms none of
             | them work nearly as well for our clients. Search ads work
             | but I believe that's far more of what OP is talking about.
             | If your website is already #1 spot and someone searches to
             | donate they would probably do it already getting there
             | quickly without the ad. The problem is when others or even
             | the same party parent org buys that top spot to get that
             | traffic.
        
               | spywaregorilla wrote:
               | As someone not familiar with the advertising world, it
               | wouldn't strike me as particularly surprising to learn
               | that political advertising on fb works better than other
               | domains. Not only do people post entire novels on their
               | political opinions, but they're constantly exposed to
               | debates and likely are more likely to feel that the ads
               | are important to react to in the moment.
        
               | nojito wrote:
               | A simple no would have sufficed.
               | 
               | No one is arguing that data brokers don't make millions
               | selling ads. The argument verified by the study is that
               | demographic and location segmentation doesn't work when
               | targeting ads.
        
               | tormeh wrote:
               | Demographic and location segmentation is just a shitty
               | way to target and is a prime example of looking for your
               | keys under the lamppost because that's where the light
               | is. That said, your point is unfortunately very relevant
               | because many advertisers still do this.
        
               | stale2002 wrote:
               | > A simple no would have sufficed.
               | 
               | Actually, I think it is pretty important that they
               | explained that they are an expert in the field, and that
               | you, a not expert, don't really know anything about the
               | space, and thus your opinion is quite literally, not as
               | informed as theirs.
        
             | fiddlerwoaroof wrote:
             | That study isn't about Facebook targeting, right? It's
             | anecdotal, but FB/Instagram ads are noticeably better for
             | me than anywhere else: they're probably the only ads that
             | have ever resulted in me buying the advertised product.
        
               | nojito wrote:
               | It blinds all the vendors and one of the panel data
               | sources was Facebook.
        
           | karlp wrote:
           | As someone who doesn't work in advertising but is insterested
           | in the space, I find your comment interesting but it doesn't
           | help you are not providing much data for your hot take
           | either. You mention Kickstarter, but looking at the list of
           | crowdfunded projects, most of the successful ones were quite
           | a while ago, if anything the most recent ones looks like
           | scammy crypto coins, which would suggest advertising works
           | rather for bad projects, a net negative.
           | 
           | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_highest-
           | funded_crowd...
        
           | morelisp wrote:
           | > You can simply control by making only one single change
           | segregated to a control and treatment geo/group before and
           | after, measure delta.
           | 
           | Because nothing else is going on in the world besides your ad
           | campaign, right?
           | 
           | Like you I find the comments about the ad industry here on HN
           | largely ignorant, but I also think most advertisers and
           | agencies are dumb as rocks, or at best high on their own
           | supply. Like, a piece of analysis I saw recently had some
           | claimed weirdass causation along the lines of, X days is the
           | optimum period between first indication of intent in a
           | product and showing an ad for that product, if the user
           | didn't convert immediately. They had run an experiment like
           | you suggest with varying intervals for audiences. But, the
           | way better correlation was with stimulus payouts. That wasn't
           | in their model, because their model only had the inputs they
           | controlled, before and after, and measured delta.
           | 
           | Everyone is selling snake oil because every advertiser is
           | demanding snake oil. It's so fucked up.
        
           | alkonaut wrote:
           | Perhaps I'm naive but my view is that online advertising
           | should have targeting no better than bus stop ads (coarse
           | geographic) and conversion should ideally not even be
           | measurable. When I buy shoes I prefer to not even say which
           | campaign made me do it (just like the bus stop ad).
           | 
           | I find the whole jargon of this post dystopian.
        
             | gsnedders wrote:
             | Note that plenty of advertising like bus stop ads,
             | especially if there's any QR code, is often tracked for
             | conversion (by having a unique reference code embedded in
             | the URL in the QR code).
        
             | unethical_ban wrote:
             | I don't know. It isn't that I think targeted ads are bad. I
             | think it is simply jarring that humans are that
             | quantifiable, and separately, that I am skeptical of the
             | privacy policies of the gatherers of this data.
             | 
             | My Instagram feed shows me lots of startup clothing
             | companies for young to middle aged men, and I finally tried
             | some, and damnit if they aren't decent jeans.
             | 
             | If we accept that ads are not inherently evil, and we
             | accept that ads (when not manipulative or selling
             | unethical/addictive products) are more beneficial to a
             | recipient if they're relevant, then targeting (if done
             | ethically and stored as anonymously as possible) is a great
             | thing.
             | 
             | I find that the ads are actually more straightforward than
             | traditional ads. They literally say "These jeans are
             | stylish, durable and American-made". I didn't sit through
             | 30 seconds of Brett Favre throwing a football to signal
             | that I'm just like him.
        
               | alkonaut wrote:
               | I think they are bad if they use context I didn't want to
               | provide. I'd be happy to give any website a pretty
               | detailed profile of interests and "cohort" if I knew
               | that's where it stopped.
               | 
               | But I don't think ads can target ethically and with
               | respect for privacy. I'd love to be proven wrong.
        
             | azinman2 wrote:
             | I'm guessing you've never tried to start an Internet-based
             | business. Being able to target ads is often your lifeblood
             | of your company. Or have you tried and somehow found a
             | different method?
        
               | alkonaut wrote:
               | I absolutely have not. But I don't think the possibility
               | of buying tracking ads is somehow excused because e.g
               | "you couldn't start internet businesses otherwise" or
               | even "most of the free content online would disappear".
               | 
               | Targeting doesn't _have_ to imply tracking or trading in
               | my info. Facebook knows my age and gender, and some of my
               | interests (from groups etc). That should be plenty. That
               | means a company that sells kitchens can't target people
               | "interested in kitchens" in the sense they have recently
               | searches for it or visited a site of a kitchen
               | manufacturer that told Facebook. They can target people
               | in country X of a certain age. If that doesn't sell
               | enough kitchens then just close down me kitchen business
               | or buy a bus stop ad but don't follow me around the
               | internet.
        
               | ROFISH wrote:
               | I run a company where about 70% of my audience (in 2018
               | no less, so likely a lot higher now) use adblockers. To
               | me, any amount of search ad spend or similar is pissing
               | money down the drain.
               | 
               | For reference, our marketing strategy is opt-in email
               | newsletters, organic social media, the occasional
               | sponsorship of events, and natural word-of-mouth (no
               | incentive). And we've been in business for 12+ years.
        
               | somedude895 wrote:
               | Search ads are very effective and are paid on a per-click
               | basis, so you really can't go wrong with them.
        
               | dwild wrote:
               | >opt-in email newsletters,
               | 
               | Opt-in, or "kinda opt-in"? Or you just don't know and
               | trust whoever publish that newsletters?
               | 
               | Seriously newsletters are the most annoying ads I get and
               | by far. So many are not really opt-in, but instead use
               | dark patterns to make you sign up.
        
         | yohannparis wrote:
         | I agree with you, I hate when news report as "cost", a loss of
         | revenue they never going to get is not a "cost". They just need
         | to adjust to the market.
        
         | tormeh wrote:
         | The blanket statement "Advertisement does not work", which I
         | really hope is a strawman, is trivially wrong. If you start a
         | new B2C business the only way to do inbound sales is
         | advertisement, as by definition no one knows about your
         | company/brand/products/services. Outbound sales is (usually)
         | impossible in B2C for cost reasons. Almost every successful B2C
         | company is evidence that advertisement works. There are some
         | exceptions like banking and utilities, where the LTV of a
         | retail customer is high enough to do outbound sales, but most
         | B2C companies can't afford this.
        
           | amelius wrote:
           | Only under the assumption that no alternatives to advertising
           | exist.
           | 
           | Ban advertising, and suddenly this statement is not true
           | anymore: "If you start a new B2C business the only way to do
           | inbound sales is advertisement, as by definition no one knows
           | about your company/brand/products/services."
           | 
           | ... for the simple reason that people will look for other
           | means to find products online. For example non-biased search
           | engines, product catalogues, review sites, etc. etc.
           | 
           | And no, listing your product with objective info is not the
           | same as advertising.
        
             | tgv wrote:
             | And then those other means will become commercially very
             | interesting and you'll have to buy your way into them.
             | 
             | But let's assume advertising doesn't work. Two companies
             | start with the same product and same market at the same
             | time. One advertises, the other doesn't. According to you,
             | the former one should lose, because it wastes money on ads.
             | I'm betting that (on average), the latter will lose,
             | though.
             | 
             | I know, it's a very black-and-white hypothetical situation.
        
               | nlh wrote:
               | Heh we wrote basically the same reply at exactly the same
               | moment. Cheers :)
        
               | amelius wrote:
               | The whole problem we should avoid is that people have to
               | pay for advertising. The _best_ product should win, not
               | the one with the biggest advertising budget. Advertising
               | undermines the principles of the free market.
        
               | spullara wrote:
               | How do you think people find out about these products to
               | compare them?
        
             | nlh wrote:
             | > For example non-biased search engines, product
             | catalogues, review sites, etc. etc.
             | 
             | This absolutely makes logical sense and I deeply wish this
             | could work. The problem is that in reality, almost all of
             | these sites are as (if not more) "manipulatable" as the ads
             | you'd like to replace. Search engines have their own
             | optimization games, most review sites these days are pay-
             | to-play (or would rapidly become even more so), etc.
             | 
             | So the fundamental issue is that any non-advertising method
             | of getting the word out rapidly becomes just obfuscated
             | advertising. Given the choice I'd prefer at least the ads
             | be honest about being ads.
        
               | amelius wrote:
               | Yes, these sites could be manipulated but that is then a
               | second-order effect.
        
           | ayewo wrote:
           | > _If you start a new B2C business the only way to do inbound
           | sales is advertisement, as by definition no one knows about
           | your company /brand/products/services._
           | 
           | This is not strictly true. Inbound sales is one tactic, there
           | is also inbound marketing (aka SEO). The tactic or set of
           | tactics available to a new B2C business largely depends on
           | what trade offs they are willing to make between time and
           | money. A cash-strapped B2C could invest time in SEO, while a
           | decently-funded competitor could invest money in paid search
           | ads. A well-funded rival could do both while also investing
           | in social media ads. The tactics that will prove effective
           | will largely depend on how clear the messaging is relative to
           | more established competitors.
           | 
           | > _Outbound sales is (usually) impossible in B2C for cost
           | reasons. Almost every successful B2C company is evidence that
           | advertisement works._
           | 
           | Again, not totally correct because you are using terms in a
           | non-standard way. For instance, you refer to 'advertisement'
           | when you really mean 'marketing'.
           | 
           | Sales and marketing as human activities, have existed from
           | the beginning.
           | 
           | Advertisements, the thing so derided on HN, only became
           | feasible (and widespread) with the help technology. In other
           | words, all ad forms depend on a enabling technology for their
           | existence.
           | 
           | The spread of printing presses eventually made one of the
           | first ad formats--handbills--economically feasible when
           | compared to the traditional practice of shouting to draw
           | attention from patrons to the market square. The telephone
           | made telesales/robocalls economically feasible at a scale
           | that far surpasses doing cold calls on foot (i.e. door-to-
           | door sales). Same with radio, television and ad formats
           | enabled by the modern Web.
        
           | iwitaly wrote:
           | +1
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | megaman821 wrote:
       | I wonder what this means for free apps.                 * Will
       | they simply disappear from iOS?       * Will new subscription
       | options appear?       * Will they remain free but require users
       | to enter a 20 question demographic survey to continue?
        
         | bilal4hmed wrote:
         | You simply start charging a subscription for your app
        
           | muro wrote:
           | Subscriptions to apps to will work about as well as
           | subscriptions to news sites.
        
             | slver wrote:
             | Not sure if you're an iOS user, but every second apps
             | demands outrageous subscription amounts like $10/week for
             | an app that adds emoji on your photos.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | lwansbrough wrote:
           | Which is subject to a 15-30% fee, unlike ads. And assumes
           | users want to have a subscription to my app (they don't.)
        
             | a4isms wrote:
             | Worth noting that unless you're personally selling
             | advertising (which only a few people can do), ads are
             | subject to a fee as well, by the broker/network.
             | 
             | You don't collect 100% of the money paid by the advertiser.
             | 
             | What you avoid with ads on iOS is paying twice: Once to the
             | broker, and again to Apple.
        
             | bilal4hmed wrote:
             | so then how do you plan on making money without privacy
             | offensive ads ? Without charging your customers, there is
             | no way
        
               | lanstin wrote:
               | Sounds fine to me. The problem with apps is not quantity
               | but quality. If we had ten percent as many and they were
               | twice as good, I would be happy. Even if they were
               | basically the same but didn't constantly put click here
               | to go to the App Store screens, I would be happy.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | eddieroger wrote:
       | For uninteresting reasons, I had to wipe settings on my iPhone
       | this weekend, which meant re-approving everything, including the
       | do not track setting mentioned here. When 14.5 came out, I
       | updated faster than apps like Instagram could, so I missed their
       | "please approve" screens that I got to see now. It's not strange
       | to see an app explain why it is about to prompt for permission to
       | do something, but posing for better personalization in the ads
       | I'm going to see anyway really didn't land with me. I fully admit
       | that I was never going to approve this setting, but I still find
       | it surprising that they think I would be happier with more
       | specific ads. Does that work for some folks? I guess I can
       | understand that if I have to see ads at all, may as well make
       | them personalized, but I'd still rather not see ads, to the point
       | of blocking them when possible.
        
         | peterhi wrote:
         | I've never found a benefit in "Personalized ads" because they
         | have never been something that I am interested in, it seems to
         | really mean "we can charge the brands more for this ad". There
         | is a ton of stuff I would willingly pay for but it never seems
         | to be what people want to advertise to me
        
           | _game_of_life wrote:
           | I opt into personalization and am constantly getting ads for
           | tampons (not a woman), essential oils (yuck), iced tea (I
           | only drink water), chinese clothing (lol), and then
           | sporadically...
           | 
           | 100k+ metal 3d printers and other industrial engineering
           | equipment. I am a disabled, unemployed student.
           | 
           | I also have serious doubts that "personalized" ads even
           | really exist. It's like they're trying to show me the least
           | applicable products to my life.
        
           | lanstin wrote:
           | This was always true for me until recently the Instagram ads
           | (I use Instagram to see what my kids and their friends are up
           | to). Those ads are all very much in the sweet spot of my
           | weaknesses. Haven't bought from them, but I still watch more
           | than halfway in fascination before I realize consciously what
           | has happened.
        
         | malka wrote:
         | I am more interested in LESS relevant ad. They will be less
         | succesful at manipulating me.
        
         | baby wrote:
         | It's interesting because I believe everyone would choose to see
         | personalized ads if asked. But the wording Apple employs is
         | "the app is asking to _track_ you", which is negative wording
         | and thus has no chance of being accepted. They pretty much
         | turned off the feature but made it look like the user still had
         | a choice.
        
           | Ar-Curunir wrote:
           | Er but that's the truth, no? And if the truth is damning for
           | Facebook and Instagram and Google, well that's what those
           | companies chose as their business model
        
         | fpgaminer wrote:
         | > I guess I can understand that if I have to see ads at all,
         | may as well make them personalized
         | 
         | I think this is the greatest lie the ad industry has foisted on
         | us, and unfortunately I see a lot of people fall for it.
         | 
         | We hear the word "personalized" and we think "relevant" or
         | "interesting". That if you _have_ to see an ad, at least let it
         | be one that tickles your fancy.
         | 
         | Yet interesting and relevant is _not_ what ad tech is
         | optimizing for. Rather, ads are optimized for _conversion_; the
         | likelihood that a user will be converted into a "sale" (where
         | "sale" can range from simply clicking the ad, to buying a
         | product, to subscribing to a service, etc. Whatever is most
         | important to the ad buyer and measurable.)
         | 
         | Optimizing for conversion is _not_ the same as optimizing for
         | being relevant or interesting. Instead these ads are being
         | optimized to exploit whatever weaknesses you, the targeted
         | user, may have. How can they _trick_ you into converting.
         | 
         | It's the same problem we see with social media. Social media
         | companies optimize for engagement, which means they get filled
         | with the baser human emotions in ways that get people addicted,
         | regardless of its cost to the user or society as a whole. Ad
         | tech is doing the same thing, and in many ways "engagement" is
         | synonymous with "conversion". Ad buyers are paying ad markets
         | to do absolutely whatever it takes to engage a user in the ad
         | buyer's desired activity. Come hell or high water, those ad
         | markets will convert you and they will consume as much data and
         | processing power as necessary to find a way to do that.
         | 
         | All this to say that ad tracking is not about making ads more
         | interesting to a user, more palatable, like many seem to
         | believe. It's about using _your_ personal data to _manipulate_
         | you.
         | 
         | Ad tracking is finding ways to tailor a drug to the specific
         | user to maximize the seller's profit.
        
           | kstrauser wrote:
           | I'd much rather have unpersonalized ads, because then I won't
           | be tempted to buy yet more stuff I don't need. I might get
           | suckered into picking up some new widget that I'll play with
           | once and then forget about. There's zero chance I'd get
           | talked into buying, say, a box of tampons.
           | 
           | If you substitute "predatory" for "personalized" whenever the
           | subject comes up, it better represents my thoughts.
        
             | malshe wrote:
             | +1 This is pretty much how I feel too.
        
         | superjan wrote:
         | No, but it's the best argument they can make to make it sound
         | like it's advantageous to you.
        
         | anamexis wrote:
         | All else being the same, I would prefer to see personalized ads
         | over not. It's not worth the incursion of privacy to me, but
         | that said, I'd prefer to see ads for, say, clothes I might wear
         | rather than perfume or prescription medicine.
        
           | Terretta wrote:
           | Do you read articles or visit sites having to do with
           | clothes? What about perfume or meds?
           | 
           | Context adjacent ads have worked fine on TV and in magazines
           | for quite a long time. NYT claimed their ad revenue went up
           | by getting back to that.
        
             | anamexis wrote:
             | No, not really. My only point was that in a vacuum, if I
             | have to see ads, I would prefer to see ads that are
             | relevant to me over seeing ads that are irrelevant to me. I
             | do NOT think that this justifies the invasion of privacy,
             | and I block trackers (and ads in general) whenever
             | possible.
        
         | poundofshrimp wrote:
         | To folks that are complaining of being manipulated, I always
         | felt that if you can be coerced into impulse-buying something
         | voluntarily, and then regretting the purchase, there is
         | probably not anyone to blame but yourself. Putting aside the
         | existence of ads for a minute (I hate ads too), why do you feel
         | that voluntarily purchasing something based on an ad is
         | "manipulation"? If you resent such purchase afterwards, seems
         | to imply you made a bad decision (rather than anyone
         | manipulated you).
         | 
         | EDIT: care to elaborate the downvotes?
        
           | benhurmarcel wrote:
           | Of course it's manipulation. Ads are made in order to modify
           | your behavior in the benefit of the brand. That's literally
           | the definition of manipulation: to control or play upon by
           | artful [...] means especially to one's own advantage;
           | controlling someone [...] to your own advantage [...].
           | 
           | > why do you feel that voluntarily purchasing something based
           | on an ad is "manipulation"?
           | 
           | There's nothing in the definition of manipulation that says
           | it has to be involuntary.
        
           | lanstin wrote:
           | Many humans struggle to stay on the path of activity that
           | their best rationality and knowledge of a fulfilling life
           | recommends. If you ever stay up too late, drink too much,
           | struggle with a bad relationship or smoking or you know too
           | much Free Flow, you have to chance to be aware of some of the
           | weaknesses in our nervous systems. Perhaps you are so far
           | away from the human norms that you don't find anything
           | tempting that is not also beneficial, but is it quite common
           | I promise you.
        
           | vorpalhex wrote:
           | Homo economicus. Man may be a free agent on paper but most
           | decisions we make are driven by easily hijacked heuristics.
        
           | kstrauser wrote:
           | There are literally psychologists working to use our brain's
           | design to their benefit. It's not entirely fair to criticize
           | someone for being manipulated by highly trained experts who
           | labor to manipulate them.
        
             | poundofshrimp wrote:
             | As someone who was in the past a salesperson, I don't see
             | how data-hungry digital advertisement is fundamentally
             | different from old and tried sales methods. Salespeople
             | would kill to know as much as possible about their
             | prospects including their personal life, so that they can
             | appeal to basic human emotions. I mean, this is literally
             | how sales are made. The difference is that in online ads
             | this part of the process is automated with algorithms,
             | which apparently rubs some people the wrong way.
             | 
             | If you are repulsed by sales as an activity, I can see how
             | you'd arrive at the "manipulation" point of view. However,
             | I would much prefer this type of "manipulation" to being
             | hard sold in a car dealership, for example, or having to
             | endure cold calls from strangers. Undesired synchronous
             | sales interactions are much more emotionally draining than
             | seeing computer-generated ads online, IMHO.
        
         | tomjen3 wrote:
         | I would prefer more specific ads. Maybe they will finally show
         | something worthwhile?
         | 
         | I mean I am not holding my breath, despite all their tracking
         | facebook can't show me relevant ads and google kept showing me
         | ads for things I was interested in (I have since changed to
         | DDG).
        
       | llIIllIIllIIl wrote:
       | Excellent
        
       | vmception wrote:
       | Now allow us to share only some contacts!
       | 
       | And don't approve apps that use our phone numbers as
       | authentication _and_ to build a social graph with people that
       | uploaded our contact prior.
        
       | marvel_boy wrote:
       | Well done Apple. A little step to improve privacy.
        
         | ArkanExplorer wrote:
         | It will decimate the ecosystem and have no impact on users.
         | 
         | Meanwhile a world of premium-priced alternatives or
         | subscriptions remains out of reach because of Apple's 30%
         | commission and $0.99 minimum charge, and lack of support for
         | upgrade pricing (although Apple will happily launch competitor
         | apps and take 100% of the proceeds, as well as giving itself
         | premium search positioning).
         | 
         | Some of the biggest companies (eg. Facebook) might just buy
         | carrier user data directly, actually worsening privacy.
        
           | tinus_hn wrote:
           | > It will decimate the ecosystem
           | 
           | If 90% of the ecosystem survives just fine I would call that
           | an unqualified success.
        
           | an_opabinia wrote:
           | > It will decimate the ecosystem
           | 
           | I agree it's hard to say how reducing income for app
           | developers of free apps helps users.
        
             | akmarinov wrote:
             | They'll finally start charging proper money for apps.
             | 
             | We can buy $3-$4 cups of coffee every day, but $0.99 for an
             | app is too much? Come on.
        
               | carlob wrote:
               | Slightly off topic.
               | 
               | I strongly suspect that $3-4 for coffee is dictated by
               | the unwillingness of the American public to have
               | different prices for take away, counter or sit at a table
               | with a computer for two hours. I live in Italy, and an
               | espresso at the counter is on average 1 euro, go to a
               | nice place sit down and have a waiter serve you and it
               | can easily double in price, if you're sitting in a famous
               | square in Venice it can go up to 5, but in any case you
               | won't be able to order just one coffee and sit for two
               | hours.
               | 
               | So my guess is that every Starbucks customer is just
               | paying for rent, whether they use the table or not. (also
               | possibly the fact that Starbucks can't overcharge you for
               | alcohol is a factor).
        
               | bradbeattie wrote:
               | I suspect people know what they're getting out of that $4
               | cup of coffee. With a $1 app, it might end up being a
               | waste of money.
               | 
               | Does the Apple Store have refunds? If a user could refund
               | an app within 48 hours of purchase (no questions asked),
               | might that increase sales? (An abrupt change in policy
               | might negatively impact premium "one time use" apps
               | though...)
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | I have never once asked for a refund from Apple and not
               | received it.
               | 
               | On that same note, I've never asked a decent restaurant
               | for a refund or exchange of a bad food or drink and not
               | received it either.
        
               | akmarinov wrote:
               | It does have refunds, though you'll probably get denied
               | after you do 3-4 in a short period of time. No refunds on
               | IAPs.
        
               | molszanski wrote:
               | Yes it does. No questions asked. But it is a kinda hidden
               | feature
        
               | wyattpeak wrote:
               | I've bought cups of coffee that were bad enough to throw
               | away for $4. Not often, but it's happened. It doesn't
               | stop me from buying coffees from new cafes.
               | 
               | I reckon trying to solve this as though it's rationally
               | thought-out is wrongheaded. I didn't consider and decide
               | that I didn't like paying for apps, I just got used to
               | not paying for apps. And indeed, once I got used to
               | paying for apps again,* I stopped worrying about whether
               | the $1 app would actually do what I wanted.
               | 
               | * Since we're sort of discussing what would prompt people
               | to spend money, for me it was games. Free-to-play games
               | are so reliably so annoying that I eventually swore off
               | downloading them.
        
               | jimmont wrote:
               | And many cups of coffee either taste bad or are bad for
               | health, yet those customers still pay for those options
               | and throw the cup away afterward. It's worth noting those
               | cups of coffee typically cost more than $1.
        
               | howinteresting wrote:
               | The vast majority of people on the planet cannot afford
               | $4 for a cup of coffee, though Apple tends to not care
               | about most people as much as its rivals (so it doesn't
               | market its phones to most people).
        
               | querulous wrote:
               | killing advertising also means discovery is going to be a
               | huge problem for developers. it doesn't matter how many
               | people are willing to pay for your app if there's no
               | effective way to make them aware of it
        
               | lanstin wrote:
               | There are many ways to share information other than ads.
        
               | spullara wrote:
               | By definition sharing information about your product to
               | convince people to buy it is an ad. Doesn't matter where
               | you put it or how it reached the user. I'd love to hear
               | your way of sharing information that doesn't match this
               | definition.
               | 
               | "An advertisement (often shortened to advert or ad) is
               | the promotion of a product, brand or service to a
               | viewership in order to attract interest, engagement and
               | sales."
        
               | bilal4hmed wrote:
               | Users have to learn to pay, just like I said in my
               | comment. You pay for things in real life, have to do it
               | online too.
        
               | an_opabinia wrote:
               | If someone was giving out free coffee on demand on your
               | phone, trust me, after a certain amount of time, you'd
               | see a lot fewer cafes. It's a very toxic orange site
               | take, this "just pay for it" perspective.
        
               | bellyfullofbac wrote:
               | On the other side, "Pay $5 per month for these basic
               | features we're going to claim are pro functions!".
               | 
               | Like Docker asking you to upgrade to pro so you can click
               | "Skip update"...
        
               | akmarinov wrote:
               | True, though probably way harder on Android, where you
               | can just sideload a cracked version.
        
               | bilal4hmed wrote:
               | You could install a cracked version of the app, but if
               | you need a account that is paying to access you are SoL.
               | So itll work even on Android.
        
               | yoz-y wrote:
               | Maybe, but this will be very, very, very hard. I'd love
               | to be able to make a paid-front app rather than freemium,
               | but the current habits make that impossible unless you
               | are an established brand or have a huge marketing budget.
        
               | bilal4hmed wrote:
               | Hence my point about learning to pay. Its a mindset
               | change for both parties involved. If your app is
               | something people don't want to pay for, then maybe its
               | not worth it. If you aren't willing to pay for an app you
               | use a lot, dont expect it for free or look for other
               | alternatives.
        
               | yoz-y wrote:
               | I wonder if that will ever happen. IMO even if all ads
               | went away, the freemium model where a couple of paying
               | users bear the burden of supporting the developer wins in
               | the end, due to the "natural" marketing of having lots of
               | users. Now, this of course won't work for niche programs.
        
               | ArkanExplorer wrote:
               | Your cafe charging $3-4 for coffee doesn't have to pay
               | 30% to Apple.
               | 
               | They'd have to charge $4.28 - $5.71 to make the same as
               | before - actually more, since demand would also be
               | reduced due to the higher price.
               | 
               | Its likely that the cafe business would be basically
               | completely uneconomic... we cannot anticipate the kind of
               | ecosystem we could have if the platforms charged based on
               | the service that they provide (which would be a few %
               | points, with credit card fees as the main cost) instead
               | of extracting monopoly rents.
        
               | Doctor_Fegg wrote:
               | Former director of a coffee shop here. If we could limit
               | our rent, business rates, etc. etc. to 30% (or indeed 15%
               | as per the new small business rate) we'd have been very
               | happy.
        
               | chongli wrote:
               | _Your cafe charging $3-4 for coffee doesn 't have to pay
               | 30% to Apple._
               | 
               | No, but they do have to pay their landlord. In all
               | likelihood, they pay even more than 30% to their
               | landlord, especially when sales slow down. I can't tell
               | you how many restaurants and cafes have closed during the
               | pandemic.
        
               | ArkanExplorer wrote:
               | Businesses buy and rent land on an open market, with
               | pricing based on supply and demand, and the opportunity
               | to move if they feel they are not getting a good deal.
               | 
               | No such ability exists on iOS.
               | 
               | Software developers have to pay rent too. And salaries,
               | and for hardware, and finally for a giant 30% commission
               | to Apple..
               | 
               | You are operating on the basis that a 30% commission from
               | a platform owner is an established fact of the Universe,
               | whereas I am suggesting it is merely an artificial cost
               | tacked on to extract exorbitant rents and for no purpose
               | other than to enrich an owner who faces zero competition.
        
               | chongli wrote:
               | I think one way to look at Apple's iOS App Store is like
               | a mall. Storefront property in a mall must be leased from
               | the mall, it's not available on the open market. Shop
               | owners pay a lot for access to the large amount of foot
               | traffic the mall provides.
               | 
               | Developers are free to take their business elsewhere,
               | such as to Android or PCs, or even to some open source
               | phones. Apple just happens to own the "mall" with the
               | lion's share of the foot traffic and the wealthiest
               | customers.
        
               | Jtsummers wrote:
               | While I dislike this attitude from non-programmers, I
               | despise it from my peers and it seems to be universal
               | across the spectrum except, maybe, older programmers (>
               | 50) who seem to have a better sense of the value they're
               | getting.
               | 
               | Peer: "You paid $30?!?! For an app?!?!" (I think it was
               | OmniFocus)
               | 
               | Me: "Umm, yeah, because it's good and I use it literally
               | every day across all my devices" (At the time I'd just
               | ditched my Windows gaming PC, and my Linux instances were
               | all VPSes or similar)
               | 
               | Peer: "But it's an _app_! " (like shouting louder
               | explains something)
               | 
               | Me: "Right, which is what we make. You should understand,
               | more than most, the actual work that goes into something
               | like this."
               | 
               | Peer: _Shaking head_ "But it's an app..." _wanders off
               | confused_
        
               | prepend wrote:
               | Coffee has a marginal and fixed cost. Digital products
               | like apps only have fixed costs and marginal costs for
               | manufacturing and distribution is zero or near zero.
               | 
               | This allows lots of new methods that aren't possible for
               | physical products.
               | 
               | For me, I buy software when it has a good value (I like
               | Omni products) but the argument that people should buy
               | apps because they buy coffee is disingenuous and not
               | useful without more info.
               | 
               | I certainly wouldn't buy coffee for 3-4 if it didn't
               | require a building and barista and shipping coffee across
               | the world and roasting beans, etc. If coffee could
               | magically appear in my hand for almost $0, then I
               | certainly wouldn't pay so much.
               | 
               | Of course, there are still costs like design for digital
               | goods, but they are very different.
        
               | Jtsummers wrote:
               | At my previous office one of the guys brought in a $300
               | espresso machine that (most of us) chipped in to pay for,
               | we had an "espresso club" with $2/month dues for 15
               | people other than that one time we asked everyone to chip
               | in an extra $20 to cover the new machine (replaced the
               | much cheaper Mr. Coffee machine that he donated to us at
               | no cost). We made much better drinks than you'd find at
               | Starbucks for a fraction of the cost.
               | 
               | Over 4 years we asked people to pay, about, $120 total
               | (regular dues, the better machine, and once to replace
               | some broken cups or mugs), that's approaching $0 to get a
               | coffee to appear in your hand (and for most of the people
               | it was "magic" as they didn't operate the espresso
               | machines, they showed up and a coffee was handed to
               | them).
        
           | willis936 wrote:
           | >It will decimate the ecosystem and have no impact on users.
           | 
           | This reads like a very big win for users if "the ecosystem"
           | is adtech.
        
           | scarface74 wrote:
           | Well, on the other hand, we have an existence proof that
           | there are plenty of subscription based offerings in the App
           | Store like Office 365, Adobe's suite and smaller players who
           | force you to get a subscription outside of the App Store
           | where Apple doesn't get a cut.
        
         | baby wrote:
         | Why didn't they just turn off the feature though? The wording
         | they use "tracking" is so negative no user will ever reply yes
         | to it. Maybe to educate users about privacy?
        
           | Ar-Curunir wrote:
           | The blame is not with Apple if they choose to truthfully
           | describe what these apps are doing
        
             | saddlerustle wrote:
             | And yet when Apple describes how they track where you are,
             | what apps you use, and what news you read for their own
             | advertising platform, they don't use that word [1]
             | 
             | [1] https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT202074
        
               | Ar-Curunir wrote:
               | If that's the case, then we should call that out, instead
               | of making excuses for Facebook
               | 
               | (Like seriously, what a terrible hill to die on)
        
               | t_von_doom wrote:
               | I know nothing about how apples advertising works so
               | sorry if this is a silly question:
               | 
               | The screenshot in the link posted explicitly states apple
               | does not track (maybe how they justify not using the
               | word) you for their advertising network, so what are they
               | doing instead?
        
           | vorpalhex wrote:
           | The usage of the word "tracking" is true.
           | 
           | Apps can still display ads. They may not build a user profile
           | and attach it to your identity across apps.
        
             | Reason077 wrote:
             | Small correction: apps owned by the same company can still
             | track your identity across apps regardless of your tracking
             | settings.
             | 
             | For example, Google can track you across the YouTube app,
             | the Google Maps app, the Gmail app, and anything else owned
             | by Google itself.
             | 
             | Apps do need to disclose this in the App Store privacy
             | labels, but there isn't much to prevent them from lying.
        
       | OrvalWintermute wrote:
       | While I am not a big fan of advertising in some cases it may be a
       | necessary evil. If I was going to see ads, I would prefer that
       | they are:
       | 
       | A - generic as to my identity attributes B - Not personalized in
       | any way, except to the site
       | 
       | Basically, much closer to the ads back in the 90s.
       | 
       | If it works for TV for decades, it can work for the web.
        
         | zenyc wrote:
         | I'm the opposite. I hate ads that have nothing to do with me. I
         | value my time and I prefer that if I'm going to see an ad, then
         | that ad be something I would find interesting.
        
       | doobeeus wrote:
       | Follow the money - Apple's "privacy" initiative is just about
       | Apple ensuring that every dollar spent in an iOS device sends 30
       | cents to Apple. That isn't the case with ads not served by Apple.
       | So Apple is making themselves the only viable way to serve ads on
       | iOS (https://support.apple.com/en-us/HT205223) and encouraging
       | in-app purchases for everything else - problem solved.
       | 
       | Also, isn't it convenient that Apple is only concerned about
       | their customer's privacy for business conducted outside of China
       | and Russia?
        
         | adrr wrote:
         | This change will really hurt them. The biggest effect is on
         | paid app installs since you no longer have access to the
         | advertiser ID which makes it extremely difficult to measure
         | performance and tracking app usage on the device. I'll take a
         | bet that some of this gets rolled back when it hurts Apple's
         | App Store revenue.
        
         | vmception wrote:
         | As it should and I don't care. Advertisers and data brokers get
         | no sympathy from me. An Apple ad venue allows for some more
         | uniform controls as well, such as tracking revokable consent of
         | a user's data, even if you found a way to pay the user for
         | their data at some point.
        
           | doobeeus wrote:
           | I agree Apple has the right to run the lawful aspects of
           | their business as they see fit but I'm a little concerned
           | about those that think Apple has their back with this privacy
           | scam.
        
             | nojito wrote:
             | Why would you be concerned?
             | 
             | Going against Facebook/Google and other ad giants is in
             | their DNA.
             | 
             | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=39iKLwlUqBo
        
               | doobeeus wrote:
               | My concern is for people who take Apple's marketing
               | (what's really in Apple's DNA) at face value, not Google
               | or especially Facebook.
        
       | schleiss wrote:
       | Meanwhile, Google's and Facebook's market caps are near all time
       | highs. The invisible hand dictates that the impact may very well
       | be insignificant for those two.
        
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