[HN Gopher] Greenland's ice sheet is releasing huge amounts of m...
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       Greenland's ice sheet is releasing huge amounts of mercury into
       rivers
        
       Author : mef51
       Score  : 138 points
       Date   : 2021-05-26 17:44 UTC (5 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.newscientist.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.newscientist.com)
        
       | est31 wrote:
       | There is also the ticking time bomb of the Camp Century remains:
       | 
       | > In 2016, a group of scientists evaluated the environmental
       | impact and estimated that due to changing weather patterns over
       | the next few decades, melt water could release the nuclear waste,
       | 200,000 liters of diesel fuel, a nontrivial quantity of PCBs, and
       | 24 million liters of untreated sewage into the environment as
       | early as the year 2090. Transition in ice sheet surface mass
       | balance at Camp Century from net accumulation to net ablation is
       | plausible within the next 75 years under one climate model, and
       | after another 44 to 88 years the buried wastes could be exposed
       | between 2135 and 2179.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Camp_Century#Residual_environm...
        
       | Proven wrote:
       | 10% of global discharge.
       | 
       | Move along, nothing to see here
        
       | spicyramen wrote:
       | Greenland just looks bigger in the maps
        
       | lifeisstillgood wrote:
       | A big tangent but I remember a podcast with Sir David King, UK
       | chief scientific advisor
       | 
       | - So, Sir David, what's worries you most?
       | 
       | - The Greenland Ice Sheet. If it melts human civilisation is
       | finished.
       | 
       | - oh. And err is it melting?
       | 
       | - Yes, and accelerating.
       | 
       | - Oh.
        
         | wiremine wrote:
         | I couldn't find the original source, but here's a link that
         | mentions the comment. Anybody have the original source?
         | 
         | https://physicstoday.scitation.org/do/10.1063/pt.5.020563/fu...
        
         | samatman wrote:
         | Estimates of total Greenland contributions to sea-level rise by
         | 2100 range from a low of 2.1cm to a high of 5cm.
         | 
         | I'm going to choose to worry about other things.
         | 
         | https://www.carbonbrief.org/new-climate-models-suggest-faste...
         | 
         | Those of you downvoting me to banish your anxiety should find a
         | healthier outlet for your issues.
        
           | bregma wrote:
           | Yes, but up to 7 m over the next 200,000 years. You might
           | want to short boardwalk futures.
        
             | ninju wrote:
             | The article does not mention 200,000 years. It calls out
             | concerns by the end of the 21 century...which is only 80
             | yrs away
        
             | uncoder0 wrote:
             | My investment horizon doesn't stretch out 200k years as I
             | don't have dynastic wealth so I'll pass on that advice.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | ska wrote:
           | I'm not sure where you got those. IPCC 2019 report estimated
           | the Greenland contributions in the 10-30cm range, and the
           | link you gave is mostly about newer models suggesting a bit
           | higher than 2019 IPCC, so suggest at the higher end (or
           | above) of that range.
           | 
           | The only related thing I could find in your linked report was
           | to estimate contributions _up_ by 2.6cm /2.8 cm/5cm
           | (different scenarios) from CMIP5 to CMIP6, not in total.
           | Maybe I missed something?
        
         | jl6 wrote:
         | Did he explain why?
        
         | pmastela wrote:
         | Could you elaborate as what about the melting of the Greenland
         | Ice Sheet was concerning to Sir David King? Is it the mercury
         | that is released or the rising sea levels it will cause or
         | something else?
        
           | splittingTimes wrote:
           | IIRC, when sheet melts, it will release a huge amount of
           | fresh water into the salty Atlantic gulf stream and shut it
           | down. The convection from top warm water sinking into the
           | depth because of a salt concentration gradient will stop
           | functioning.
           | 
           | Besides it's climate impact and heat transfer mechanism it
           | will likely disturb the other ocean currents that are import
           | for a stable climate as well.
        
           | gspr wrote:
           | 7 meter rise. If that happens, we're toast.
           | 
           | Yes, an Antarctic melt would be worse, but it's far less
           | likely.
        
             | barbacoa wrote:
             | Humans have experienced 120m sea level rise since the last
             | ice age. We can only hope this last 7m wont finish us off.
        
               | SketchySeaBeast wrote:
               | While that's true, we didn't have as many major centers
               | with permanent buildings set up. I'm looking for data,
               | but I imagine that places like New York would be
               | underwater, would they not?
        
               | barbacoa wrote:
               | Sea level rise is measured at 3.5mm/yr[1] as of 2016 so
               | at current rate it will take 2000 years to hit 7m. NYC
               | may be underwater but it would in all likelihood be as
               | irrelevant to the future as Tyre or Carthage is today.
               | 
               | [1]https://ocean.si.edu/through-time/ancient-seas/sea-
               | level-ris...
        
               | ninju wrote:
               | The concern is the acceleration of the sea level rise
               | 
               | "Whether it takes another _200 or 2000_ years largely
               | depends on how quickly the ice sheets melt. Even if
               | global warming were to stop today, sea level would
               | continue to rise. "
               | 
               | -- from the same article (2 sentences later)
        
               | lumost wrote:
               | Given the semi-permanent nature of changes at this point
               | we should likely start talking in rates of change.
               | 
               | 7 meter rise over 2 centuries can likely be managed in a
               | reasonable manner via land taxation, resettlement, wall,
               | and levy construction. 7 meter rise in 5 years would
               | likely collapse most of the western world as major
               | population centers find themselves unlivably under water.
        
               | Ekaros wrote:
               | Places like NY would likely spend couple billions to
               | invest on dykes and then sell it as new water front
               | property...
        
               | fogihujy wrote:
               | It's not about the survival of Humanity, but rather about
               | global trade disruptions, mass-migrations, and massive
               | property damage on a scale we've never seen. Humanity
               | will be fine, but if it goes really bad then it will
               | cause a lot of suffering and it may take centuries to
               | recover.
        
               | PicassoCTs wrote:
               | So, if i were to write a algorithm, that determines the
               | new shoreline - and buys property there, i could profit
               | from this when?
        
               | jfengel wrote:
               | It doesn't work like that. We don't get a new shoreline
               | miles away.
               | 
               | What we get is every single existing ocean port city
               | (which is a lot of the largest cities) being threatened
               | by more frequent flooding. They're all right at sea
               | level, because that's where you build port cities. Not
               | all of these cities really depend on being ports any
               | more, but that's how they became major population and
               | business centers.
               | 
               | They don't just pick up and move something like that.
               | There's no place you can say, "Oh, they're going to move
               | New York over to X, so I'll buy land there now". Even if
               | they did for some reason decide that it was so bad they
               | had to abandon New York (or Charleston or San Francisco
               | or lots of others), there's no one place that it goes.
               | The whole human geography of it changes.
        
               | ceejayoz wrote:
               | Property rights tend to require a functional society to
               | effectively utilize.
        
               | drknownuffin wrote:
               | Now. There are already hedge funds purchasing land based
               | on this idea.
        
               | gooseus wrote:
               | And the third order effects will be further
               | destabilization leading to more wars, which may go
               | nuclear, and will all feed back into more environmental
               | degradation.
        
       | jeffbee wrote:
       | There are unimaginable mineral resources under the Greenland ice
       | sheet, stuff that literate humans have never seen and which is
       | therefore not describe in any history. There should be enormous
       | boulders of pure copper, rich deposits of gold, silver, and lead,
       | and of course mercury. Greenland without its ice sheet will be
       | like a museum of pre-human geology.
        
         | pcrh wrote:
         | This is akin to the "unimaginable" resources in asteroids.
         | 
         | By and large, we really don't need more resources to mine, but
         | to use what we have more efficiently.
         | 
         | I'm sure there are a few edge cases, but the attitude that we
         | should look for more and more to exploit is what leads to
         | deforestation, the biggest loss of species diversity since the
         | last ice age, global warming and a serious toll on the health
         | of today's people.
        
           | dheera wrote:
           | I really hope at some point in the future we will have the
           | tech to arbitrarily convert a pile of one element into a pile
           | of another element. Without that, colonizing other planets is
           | going to be hard.
        
         | leafmeal wrote:
         | This sounds really interesting and would love to learn more
         | about this. Do you know of any resources, articles, books, etc.
         | that talk about this?
        
       | salmonellaeater wrote:
       | Wayback machine:
       | https://web.archive.org/web/20210524233617/https://thehackpo...
        
         | dang wrote:
         | We've banned the originally submitted site as explained here:
         | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27293941.
        
       | iab wrote:
       | https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https:...
       | 
       | Just so that you have the ability to fully ruin your day
        
         | dang wrote:
         | We've banned that site and changed the URL above to the article
         | it ripped off _and_ didn 't link to, which is like 95th
         | percentile blogspam shamelessness. In this case they even
         | lifted the title as well. That clears 99.
         | 
         | Submitted URL was https://thehackposts.com/news/greenlands-ice-
         | sheet-is-releas....
         | 
         | By the way, for anyone interested, an easy way to bust these is
         | simply to pick a likely-unique string from the article you
         | suspect of being a ripoff and google it with quotes around it.
         | If there's a more original source, it will probably come up:
         | 
         | https://www.google.com/search?q=%22It+is+a+region+that+conta...
         | 
         | Sometimes I have to do this a few times before hitting the
         | jackpot, but in my experience: if content looks copied, it
         | probably is.
        
           | mef51 wrote:
           | Thanks for the change!
        
           | perihelions wrote:
           | _" simply to pick a likely-unique string from the article you
           | suspect of being a ripoff and google it with quotes around
           | it"_
           | 
           | There's also a subtype that deliberately circumvents this
           | trick. There is a type of ad fraudster that rips off of, e.g.
           | native German-speaking writers, runs their work through
           | machine translation, and publishes the English output as
           | original.
           | 
           | I encountered several examples on some technical subs on
           | Reddit (not yet on HN). It took a disproportionate amount of
           | effort to unmask even one -- the method that ended up
           | succeeding was to guess which technical terms could be
           | idempotent under translation, and (&&) some together until
           | the result set is small enough. (It's harder to reverse
           | translate, because unless you're an expert translator, you
           | probably don't know what the source language was).
           | 
           | I've only seen a handful of these, but because of how
           | difficult it is to detect, I'd speculate there could be a
           | sizeable population in the wild. The writing is technically
           | correct and non-suspicious, because it's written by a human
           | expert in another language. It strongly resists reverse
           | Google searches. And it resists social unmasking, because
           | social groups who speak different languages tend to have
           | distance between them.
           | 
           | It's a clever evil.
        
             | dang wrote:
             | Excellent point. Links would be interesting if you happen
             | to have any.
        
               | perihelions wrote:
               | I very briefly skimmed Reddit for examples. This one is
               | /r/physics' 4th-most-upvoted post from this week, and
               | hasn't been detected yet. It algorithmically substitutes
               | random words for their synonyms (poorly); not the machine
               | language translation I promised, but it's performing the
               | same goal of resisting phrase matching.
               | "We knew that the first direct image of a black hole
               | would be groundbreaking," said Kazuhiro Hada of the
               | "We knew that the first uninterrupted image of a black
               | hole would be revolutionary," says Kazuhiro Hada of the
               | 
               | Original is [0] and plagiarized is [1] (linked indirectly
               | because the other URL is probably blacklisted on here,
               | and possibly malicious).
               | 
               | This one was the cleanest of several examples I found*. I
               | think the technique is widespread and broadly successful,
               | based on my anecdotal experience. It's easy to find a
               | diversity of examples in smaller-sized Reddit subs, the
               | ones with less paranoid moderation and spam AI settings.
               | 
               | The machine translation examples are far harder to detect
               | (to me); I'll update you if I discover one again in the
               | future. The ones I found several years back appear to no
               | longer exist.
               | 
               | [0] https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/news/telescopes-unite-in-
               | unpreceden...
               | 
               | [1] https://old.reddit.com/r/Physics/comments/njbrec/data
               | _from_1...
               | 
               | * (Because I could reliably identify the original
               | document, and because the edit of a direct quotation from
               | a named individual is an air-tight example of fraud).
        
       | godelski wrote:
       | This specifically mentions indigenous people, but unfortunately I
       | don't think many people actually care about them (besides surface
       | level). But how does this affect the average person's food
       | supply? Don't we get a lot of fish/seafood from the arctic? Tuna
       | and crab for example? Seems like it would affect fisheries in the
       | north east of northern America and as well as northern Europe.
       | That seems like a big deal for a lot of people. Does anyone have
       | any more information on this? I imagine a lot of people depend on
       | these regions for food.
        
       | mywacaday wrote:
       | Whatever global warming does to the planet I'm fairly sure we
       | haven't anticipated the worst side effects.
        
         | tryonenow wrote:
         | Have we accurately anticipated any benefits? Serious question.
         | There's no way that such a massive shift in a complex, chaotic
         | system will only be negative.
        
         | Guest42 wrote:
         | I'm a little disappointed it got renamed as "climate change"
         | because that phrase doesn't have the same level of urgency to
         | it although it is technically more accurate.
        
           | czep wrote:
           | It used to be called "pollution". Reframing the topic as
           | global warming or climate change was a dedicated effort to
           | soften the language and introduce room for doubt. I mean,
           | everyone agrees that pollution sounds bad and is bad and we
           | should stop doing it. But by calling it climate change,
           | suddenly there's now an avenue to challenge its legitimacy,
           | and shift attention onto the ideological debates. Meanwhile,
           | as everyone is distracted, industry gets a free pass to
           | continue polluting with zero consequences.
        
             | dredmorbius wrote:
             | "Pollution" used to refer to spillage of a different sort:
             | https://www.etymonline.com/search?q=pollution
             | 
             | The modern sense of "environmental contamination" in common
             | parlance dates largely to the early 1960s:
             | 
             | https://books.google.com/ngrams/graph?content=pollution&yea
             | r...
        
             | mensetmanusman wrote:
             | Love this.
             | 
             | I have never failed to convince anyone in my midwest sphere
             | of influence (midwest, know far right and far left folks)
             | that 'pollution' needs to be dealt with.
             | 
             | You can replace 'climate change' in an essay with pollution
             | and dramatically simplify changing peoples mind.
        
             | throwaway0a5e wrote:
             | <rolls eyes>
             | 
             | The problem was re-framed because western industry mostly
             | stopped belching obvious pollution and that framing of the
             | problem did not resonate with western voters who could see
             | that the rivers and sky were cleaner than they'd ever been.
             | It used to be that smog was a feature of weekly weather in
             | urban areas and if your dog jumped in a river 50mi
             | downstream of a textile factory you'd know what color they
             | were making the day before. By the 90s that kind of stuff
             | was cleaned up a ton.
             | 
             | Not everything you don't like is the result of the evil
             | other guys.
        
             | jeffbee wrote:
             | Eh, it's not the same thing as pollution. Pollution to me
             | invokes the process where you invent something unnatural
             | and dump it into the environment, such as
             | tetrachloroethylene. Whereas putting CO2 in the atmosphere
             | is a completely normal natural process, and the amount
             | we've added has "only" about doubled the usual
             | concentration. It's categorically different because unlike
             | TCE, which will kill you on the spot if you drink it, the
             | downsides of CO2 are not instantly obvious.
        
               | earleybird wrote:
               | In perhaps colourful terms - Crap in a river and it's
               | polluted for those downstream. This, for me, captures the
               | essence of the issue - It's not pollution until you are
               | the one downstream.
        
               | ako wrote:
               | Pollution is not just about the what, but also about how
               | much. One cup of water is good for you, but if you drink
               | 10 liters of water on the spot you might die. and that's
               | not even close to doubling the amount of water in your
               | body.
        
               | czep wrote:
               | The problem is that the average voter will not understand
               | that distinction. They will be persuaded to vote against
               | environmental protections because of the doubt cast on
               | "climate change". My original point was about the framing
               | of the debate in the public sphere. In an effort to be
               | pedantically correct, we've handed the opposition the
               | upper hand by allowing them to reframe the debate away
               | from the scary word of pollution.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | [deleted]
        
             | air7 wrote:
             | they're not the same thing at all. Green house gases
             | include CO2 and water vapor for example. GHGs are not
             | pollutants at all, and pollutants don't cause global
             | warming.
        
               | wumpus wrote:
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_v._Environmen
               | tal... -- the EPA can regulate CO2 because it is a
               | pollutant, according to the Supreme Court.
        
             | smcl wrote:
             | That's an interesting angle, it's funny because I thought
             | it was the _other_ way round - that it was changed to be
             | more persuasive. I guess  "climate change" also opens it up
             | to the argument that even skeptics are in agreement that
             | climate changes _naturally_ , so they can brush aside
             | evidence with "hey we don't disagree but it's a natural
             | process and there's some doubt over whether humans are
             | responsible" :-/
        
           | leetcrew wrote:
           | I'm strongly in favor of prioritizing technical accuracy over
           | perceived urgency. when people realize the sky isn't falling
           | quite as fast as implied by the terminology, they grow
           | cynical.
        
           | smcl wrote:
           | I imagine it's partly because because skeptics would have a
           | field day any time it snowed a lot or was less warm than
           | normal and say "so much for global warming!". It might sound
           | obvious and silly to us, but a simple folksy sort of
           | observational logic defeating the _so called experts_ can be
           | quite persuasive and validating :(
        
             | LanceH wrote:
             | Decades ago, I was saying the same thing in the opposite
             | direction when backers of global warming were saying, "look
             | how hot it is." I'm talking the 80's when I said it was a
             | terrible argument, because all it takes is a cold day to
             | refute it...and here we are.
             | 
             | I seem to get downvoted every time I mention this, as
             | apparently people want to forget global warming was ever
             | bolstered by, "look how hot it is" and they would prefer to
             | just now ridicule people for the same errors their side was
             | guilty of for literally decades.
             | 
             | So yes, the event is real. Ridiculing opponents for making
             | the same argument with the same temporary data points isn't
             | winning anything.
        
           | legutierr wrote:
           | Yeah, that was precisely the point.
        
           | Workaccount2 wrote:
           | My choice name is "Global Pollution Epidemic"
           | 
           | I think it really captures what the the problem is, rather
           | then making it some concept that seems abstract and immovable
           | to the average person. Lots of people deny climate change,
           | almost no one denies that humans pollute a lot.
        
           | tasty_freeze wrote:
           | There are scientific papers from the 1950s which refer to CO2
           | induced climate change -- using the phrase "climate change."
        
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       (page generated 2021-05-26 23:01 UTC)