[HN Gopher] Peloton to invest $400M to build its first U.S. manu...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Peloton to invest $400M to build its first U.S. manufacturing
       facility in Ohio
        
       Author : jbredeche
       Score  : 151 points
       Date   : 2021-05-24 18:26 UTC (1 days ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.cnbc.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.cnbc.com)
        
       | snypher wrote:
       | Hooray, a million square feet of treadmill and exercise bike
       | factory. Anyone care to guess what kickback or tax credit Ohio
       | handed over for this?
       | 
       | Edit: it was $47 million. See you all in 6 to 12 months when this
       | goes the way of Foxconn.
        
         | Animats wrote:
         | US$24K per job is not too much. The upper limit for cost-
         | effectiveness for job subsidies is maybe $30K. The main problem
         | is making sure the benefits are not paid out until the jobs
         | have been created.[1]
         | 
         | [1]
         | https://www.timesfreepress.com/news/local/story/2017/sep/17/...
        
         | ericmay wrote:
         | The level of cynicism is concerning.
         | 
         | But also (as an Ohio resident) there isn't really all that much
         | in the way of incentives for a business to move here. The state
         | has to do _something_. But this won 't go the way of Foxconn -
         | mark my words, because it's not nearly as complicated to set
         | up.
         | 
         | Like it or not, the future state for not just the world but
         | individual states will be competition for jobs and revenue, so
         | they're going to have to give companies a good reason to locate
         | to their sovereignty. Tax advantages are a tool they can use
         | (among other things), and unlike the federal government the
         | state governments (at least Ohio) have to actually balance
         | their budgets and spend somewhat responsibly - so they can't
         | just do whatever they want and have to be strategic. Not
         | collecting taxes is fine because if Peloton wouldn't locate
         | here without that nothing is really being lost. At least there
         | are jobs.
        
           | dghlsakjg wrote:
           | There's a lot of options that aren't "give corporations a
           | $47mm handout".
           | 
           | What if they put that money into better technical education
           | facilities, or tax credits for Ohio residents paying off
           | student loans. Increasing services so that people working
           | remotely will want to come.
           | 
           | I feel like a place with a low cost of living that attracts
           | highly talented people for a variety of reasons is a better
           | long term investment than a treadmill factory. If I was
           | looking to open a satellite office, I can tell you that
           | proximity to a treadmill factory is pretty low on the list.
           | 
           | Tax breaks like this are tactical, state and city governments
           | need to be strategic. While tactics like tax breaks can be
           | part of a strategy, it doesn't seem to be a great one since
           | it doesn't build "moats", and all it takes to be defeated is
           | the next state over offering something slightly better. Ohio
           | of all places should know that manufacturing facilities can
           | be closed on short notice for reasons they have no control
           | over.
        
             | ericmay wrote:
             | > What if they put that money into better technical
             | education facilities, or tax credits for Ohio residents
             | paying off student loans. Increasing services so that
             | people working remotely will want to come.
             | 
             | Well, a few issues. This is money that has to be collected
             | and spent - more taxes or a change in the budget. Not
             | collecting taxes on new construction isn't money the state
             | has to spend, it's just money it isn't collecting. The
             | alternative, at least in this case is that this factory
             | just isn't built in Ohio. It wouldn't affect doing other
             | things to attract residents. Frankly, I think we should
             | create large-scale corporate subsidies to relocate jobs to
             | the state. If you build your facility or office here, no
             | corporate tax on that entity. More jobs and more money and
             | revenue from other taxes will be enough.
             | 
             | > I feel like a place with a low cost of living that
             | attracts highly talented people for a variety of reasons is
             | a better long term investment than a treadmill factory.
             | 
             | Well, the cost of living isn't all that low, and where it
             | is low no talented person without connections to the state
             | wants to live here. Why live in Ohio when you have the
             | _exact_ same thing almost everywhere else in the country,
             | from Oklahoma to Iowa, to Indiana to Michigan. There aren
             | 't many unique reasons to locate a business here,
             | unfortunately. There are plenty of talented people here,
             | though many leave for other locations.
             | 
             | > If I was looking to open a satellite office, I can tell
             | you that proximity to a treadmill factory is pretty low on
             | the list.
             | 
             | Sure, but you're also generally not opening a satellite
             | office here unless you have a very good reason, and that
             | reason would have nothing to do with the existence of a
             | treadmill factory. In other words, Ohio is very low on your
             | list, so if you have a reason for being here it's a very
             | good one that this won't affect.
             | 
             | > Tax breaks like this are tactical, state and city
             | governments need to be strategic. While tactics like tax
             | breaks can be part of a strategy, it doesn't seem to be a
             | great one since it doesn't build "moats", and all it takes
             | to be defeated is the next state over offering something
             | slightly better. Ohio of all places should know that
             | manufacturing facilities can be closed on short notice for
             | reasons they have no control over.
             | 
             | Yes. We should grow a coastline, build some mountains and
             | ski resorts, and have great weather instead.
             | 
             | I agree that state and city governments need to be
             | strategic, but you're paining a mutually exclusive picture
             | where one doesn't exist.
             | 
             | Personally I think the only thing we can do is create
             | walkable neighborhoods with mixed-use development - make
             | Columbus, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and other towns and cities
             | more like places in Europe where people would actually want
             | to live. Otherwise Ohio is pretty indistinguishable from
             | most of the country.
        
         | Judgmentality wrote:
         | A company getting a tax break is not in the same league as what
         | happened with Foxconn in Wisconsin. That was a truly special
         | example of wild incompetence and corruption.
         | 
         | https://gimletmedia.com/shows/reply-all/wbhjwd
         | 
         | https://www.theverge.com/2018/12/6/18128133/foxconn-deal-wis...
         | 
         | This is just a company that actually wants to build what
         | they're saying they'll build (at least I believe Peloton wants
         | to build treadmills and exercise bikes because that's what they
         | do, I have no idea why anyone would build a "state of the art"
         | facility for a technology that's already been largely obsoleted
         | as was the case with Foxconn and LCD screens) and hoping for a
         | tax break.
        
         | jacob2484 wrote:
         | What's the alternative? A new facility is better than a
         | facility outside the US.
        
           | catillac wrote:
           | It won't happen here, but in the Foxconn case a better
           | alternative would have been to not grant the incentives and
           | "lose out" on Foxconn coming to Wisconsin.
        
             | ipaddr wrote:
             | Better for whom the tax payer?
        
       | aml183 wrote:
       | If you want to learn more about tech in Ohio. Check out OhioX. It
       | is the trade association for the technology community in Ohio.
       | They are doing some great work on trying to attract and retain
       | tech talent in the region.
       | 
       | https://www.ohiox.org/
        
       | mvzvm wrote:
       | This is great. Really looking forward to learning more about
       | this. I wonder how automated it will be.
        
       | fuzzer37 wrote:
       | Seriously, a million square feet to build stationary bikes with a
       | screen attached? Does anyone have any predictions when this
       | market will be saturated? It's not like exercise equipment is a
       | recurring purchase.
        
         | outside1234 wrote:
         | You are thinking with a static mindset.
         | 
         | Its clear that they are thinking of a broader market and
         | company.
         | 
         | Its not hard for me, for example, to see how they can scale
         | this to rowing and treadmills and beyond given their strong
         | brand.
        
         | Closi wrote:
         | I suspect that your assumption that this facility is just to
         | make stationary bikes might be a little off.
         | 
         | Part of this investment is likely to be expansion of their
         | product range.
        
         | ipaddr wrote:
         | Did you think they were only going to make 10 a day? Depending
         | on volume a million square feet might not be enough.
        
         | Grakel wrote:
         | This is like replacing a CRT with a high def flat screen.
         | There's millions of them out there in gyms and schools and
         | hotels, and these are WAY better.
        
         | cl0ckt0wer wrote:
         | But you'll have to buy a new bike in a couple years when they
         | stop updating the software on the old ones.
        
           | gregmac wrote:
           | As a consumer, this is the bit that drives me crazy about
           | most of this stuff: a part with a lifecycle of a few years
           | (CPU) is attached to a part with a long lifecycle (cycle,
           | fridge, display/TV), thus making the whole thing effectively
           | have the short lifecycle.
           | 
           | I wish they'd use something like a Pi CM4 that could be
           | upgraded at least once or twice over the 10+ year lifecycle,
           | but I also understand why this will never happen.
        
         | RankingMember wrote:
         | The service is the real product here - the equipment just helps
         | with lock-in. They do seem to be spending the money in the
         | right places- their instructors and production are second to
         | none.
        
           | giglamesh wrote:
           | I recently watched a preview for an Apple Fitness spin class
           | and I could not believe how cheesy and superficial it
           | appeared. Apple! I never really appreciated how good Peloton
           | is until Apple helped me see how bad it could have been.
        
             | matwood wrote:
             | IMO, Apple goofed by not buying Peloton to bootstrap their
             | Fitness they same way they bought Beats to bootstrap music.
        
         | awa wrote:
         | People are used to paying $100+/mo for a Gym, if Peloton can
         | convince them to work out at home thats worth the $2500 they
         | charge every 3 years or so. They can make the equipment free or
         | cheap with multi-year subscriptions.
        
           | sumtechguy wrote:
           | My wife was dumping 50-100 a month into a gym. I said "I will
           | buy you whatever equipment you are using there and if it
           | breaks you can go back". That was 15 years ago and the stuff
           | is still in good shape and used daily.
           | 
           | Renting makes sense if you can not afford it at all or only
           | will use it for a small period of time. If you are going to
           | use something long term you are usually better off buying
           | that thing.
           | 
           | Also try to buy used equip. Many times people realize they
           | did not really want to do it at all but made an excellent
           | coat hanger. Usually it is in very good condition and you can
           | save a decent amount of cash.
        
             | asdff wrote:
             | I think also there is this idea that it's the machine or
             | the equipment you need, but all you need is the movement
             | and resistance. When the pandemic hit I bought resistance
             | bands instead of expensive free weights. $60 later I'm
             | squatting, deadlifting, overhead pressing, curling, bench
             | pressing, shoulder pressing, calf raising, lat raising,
             | doing everything really with a rubber band instead of a
             | hunk of metal, doing the same movements and getting the
             | same pump for half the price of a monthly gym membership
             | around here.
        
               | sumtechguy wrote:
               | I agree. For me it was mostly just to stop her renting
               | the machine. I personally just use simple stuff you learn
               | in PE and some isometrics. Using bands would be a nice
               | augment to that.
               | 
               | You do not need a lot of money to exercise. You can get
               | in cheap. Mostly it is about setting up a routine and
               | doing that. Basically 'procrastination is the thief of
               | time' and 'by repetition I get things done'.
        
         | cactus2093 wrote:
         | Just goes to show there's no winning with internet opinion.
         | Building stuff overseas at the lowest possible price is
         | exploitative and sacrifices American jobs, but then when a
         | company wants to build more expensive, higher quality stuff in
         | the US it's a waste of resources.
        
           | colinmhayes wrote:
           | Well yea, different people have different opinions. I think
           | globalization is a good thing that provides cheap goods and
           | better jobs for the global poor. Others think globalization
           | is a bad thing that offshores American jobs and exploits
           | workers. I don't think either side is wrong.
        
             | cactus2093 wrote:
             | > Well yea, different people have different opinions.
             | 
             | Yes but the fact that either extreme can bubble up to the
             | top such that if you say anything you immediately get hit
             | with the strongest disagreement, is I think one of the
             | hallmark properties and biggest problems with the
             | internet/social media
        
           | fighterpilot wrote:
           | The idea that overseas manufacting in poor countries is
           | exploitation is such obvious BS, given that you can observe
           | the hundreds of millions that were lifted from poverty as a
           | direct consequence, and without which would still be in
           | poverty.
        
       | TimPC wrote:
       | Removed by poster. Comment had out of date information.
        
         | aspir wrote:
         | Is that what they already did?
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/05/business/peloton-recall-t...
        
           | TimPC wrote:
           | Thanks I missed the news they finally did this.
        
         | ojbyrne wrote:
         | Isn't that what this is:
         | https://www.cpsc.gov/Recalls/2021/peloton-recalls-tread-plus...
        
       | ydnaclementine wrote:
       | Shoutout to Ohio! Interesting they chose Troy Township
       | (population 4k), wonder if they plan on employing the entire
       | city.
       | 
       | I'm unfortunately a little skeptical, but I hope it works for the
       | city/state and Peloton. If you find the idea of new plants
       | opening in the US interesting, I recommend the documentary
       | American Factory. It is about a plant owned by a Chinese company
       | opening in Ohio (Dayton), so the circumstances are completely
       | different from this. It explores the clash of cultures and
       | conflict of attitudes of the employers and employees. I liked how
       | they dove into some employees and employers lives and
       | circumstances.
       | 
       | I thought it was interesting, but I'm a little biased because I
       | happened to be living near Dayton when it was filmed, and had no
       | clue this type of thing was going on.
        
         | abnercoimbre wrote:
         | I don't know if this does anything for you, but American
         | Factory was actually produced by the Obamas. Their first
         | Netflix documentary.
         | 
         | Politics aside, I thought that was a pretty neat tidbit.
        
         | newhotelowner wrote:
         | > wonder if they plan on employing the entire city.
         | 
         | Population of Miami county is 100k. People in this part of the
         | country travel 30-45 miles to work.
         | 
         | https://www.google.com/search?q=miami+county+population
         | 
         | They always talk about upto x number of jobs. Actual numbers
         | are usually lower.
         | 
         | There are close to hundred Japanese companies/factories in
         | Ohio.
        
         | baybal2 wrote:
         | > Shoutout to Ohio! Interesting they chose Troy Township
         | (population 4k), wonder if they plan on employing the entire
         | city.
         | 
         | I bet no, and I bet they also went trying the cumbersome
         | robotisation route yet again.
        
       | aynyc wrote:
       | _$400 million_
       | 
       |  _1 million square feet_
       | 
       |  _more than 2,000 jobs_
       | 
       | Given how much automation is used in modern factory, I'm
       | surprised it'll create that many jobs. Given the products are
       | fairly consistent, wouldn't the production lines be robots?
        
         | jjk166 wrote:
         | I mean, it's still just 1 person every 500 sq ft. That's a
         | pretty sparsely populated factory.
         | 
         | And nowadays automation rarely reduces the number of employees
         | substantially. The days of a worker doing one very simple task
         | day in and day out are long gone. Most automated manufacturing
         | lines are designed with every step having an associated
         | operator who can load material in and out (which is a very
         | difficult task to automate generally), which also keeps a
         | person conveniently located for handling errors, cleaning,
         | light maintenance, handling edge cases, assisting people at
         | neighboring workstations, etc. In fact, automation actually
         | often requires more labor as robots tend to be slower than
         | human workers and prone to various errors which humans would
         | simply deal with. Their advantage though is in automation's
         | consistency, which allows for much more efficient supply chain
         | management. While some automated systems can be made to
         | outperform human operators, this is usually prohibitively
         | expensive.
        
         | jcrawfordor wrote:
         | Extensive production automation is really expensive. You'd
         | probably be surprised how much electronics and consumer goods
         | manufacturing is still largely manual. In particular, high
         | automation gets you into pretty extreme retooling costs
         | whenever you change your designs.
        
           | baybal2 wrote:
           | If feel you know what you are saying.
           | 
           | People saying automation will save American manufacturing
           | have zero experience with real manufacturing.
        
         | underwater wrote:
         | They usually fudge the numbers for number of jobs badly. For
         | example you might find that construction requires 1,500
         | different people for varying lengths of time, and the factory
         | employs 500 people on an ongoing basis.
        
           | aynyc wrote:
           | That's more inline from what I've read but is that true in
           | general?
        
       | baybal2 wrote:
       | $400M for a bicycle factory?????
       | 
       | That's a lot of money...
       | 
       | People in other countries can open a few car factories with money
       | like that.
        
         | ipaddr wrote:
         | Creating a factory in the cheapest geographical region ends up
         | costing more in shipping per car plus the duties for importing
         | a car.
         | 
         | 400 million in some locations would be bigger than the annual
         | budget for the country. But in some locations you wouldn't even
         | get a call back trying to buy a basketball or baseball team or
         | soccer team.
        
         | Closi wrote:
         | A modern large car plant starts at $3bn-4bn then goes up from
         | there depending on how much of the manufacturing you are going
         | to do yourself, so it's more like 10% of the cost of that.
        
           | baybal2 wrote:
           | Just two weeks ago, I've been in talks with a co who is in
           | the process of building a car factory, and possibly a second
           | one in a few years.
           | 
           | And not of a OEM kit assembly type, but a proper on with body
           | shop, and everything. Price? A bit more than $110M
        
             | Closi wrote:
             | Well clearly there is a large variety in size and scope,
             | which is why I tried to say a "large" car plant (by which I
             | meant reasonable complexity and manufacturing volume).
             | 
             | Clearly you can open a very small car factory for $1
             | million with a body shop if you want to.
        
             | olyjohn wrote:
             | I don't get what this means? What's an "OEM kit assembly
             | type" car factory?
             | 
             | And what do you mean a body shop? Do you mean like a
             | fabrication facility where they form body panels, and then
             | do paint after assembly?
             | 
             | Body shops are where they do repairs for collision and
             | dents after a car is already completed. A domestic factory
             | might have one to fix flaws in the paint and body incurred
             | during manufacturing... Cars imported from overseas get
             | bodywork done at the port, generally due to shipping
             | damage. (Yes your brand new car may have already been
             | repaired.) It's not really the big part of building a car
             | at all though. I feel like you might be missing something,
             | or misunderstanding something. Or maybe it's just me.
        
               | baybal2 wrote:
               | > I don't get what this means? What's an "OEM kit
               | assembly type" car factory?
               | 
               | A type of a factory that does assembly only from parts,
               | without making parts themselves
               | 
               | > And what do you mean a body shop? Do you mean like a
               | fabrication facility where they form body panels, and
               | then do paint after assembly?
               | 
               | I mean a shop where they _manufacture_ a car body, and
               | its parts.
        
             | mediaman wrote:
             | There is no way you're building anything but a very small
             | car factory for $110m. Maybe this involves a long of hand-
             | work for low volume niche vehicles? Specialty government
             | vehicles?
             | 
             | Normal car factories run $500m for something smallish to
             | $4bn for a facility with more volume.
        
               | baybal2 wrote:
               | It's in top 100 electronics companies globally, aiming to
               | join top 20 this decade, and you can easily do.
               | 
               | Yes, the panelling lines is half the cost, and assembly
               | would be mostly manual for the beginning.
        
               | ivalm wrote:
               | top 100 electronics company in car space means it is
               | extremely small/doesn't produce meaningful amount of
               | cars.
        
           | caycep wrote:
           | I wonder if a lot of it is also going to supplier/worker
           | infrastructure...Apple tried it in limited ways but I think a
           | lot of it fell through due to, either US workers not having
           | the right sort of technical education, vs. all the
           | infrastructures for small parts, prototyping, etc, still
           | being in China and the US factory was often stuck waiting for
           | things to be shipped back
        
       | alexaholic wrote:
       | Will the new factory fix their treadmills?
       | 
       | Re https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26846641
        
         | Zenst wrote:
         | Well, the choice of location may offer some legal preference in
         | case of future faults. I'm aware that Ohio has a safe harbour
         | law to protect companies against data breach if they comply
         | with certain criteria they outline. So may well be other such
         | safe harbour legislation that would be favourable for liability
         | mitigation and with that, insurance liability reduction.
         | 
         | So may well be many nuances at play in this selection, or might
         | even be down to some CEO living nearby and just wants to pop a
         | made local/USA sticker on the product.
         | 
         | Time will tell.
        
         | alexaholic wrote:
         | Dear people who are downvoting me: I'd appreciate if you shared
         | some thoughts in the comments. Otherwise, you're just being
         | meaner than I was in my original comment.
        
           | sremani wrote:
           | Never Complain about downvoting - even if you think its
           | unfair, its counter productive. Also, refraining (from
           | complaining) will build the disagreement muscle and will
           | check 'approval seeking' instincts.
           | 
           | my 2 cents.
        
           | catillac wrote:
           | I didn't and don't appear to be able to downvote, but your
           | comment appears super orthogonal to the title subject, far
           | enough afield to be considered trolling or just trying to
           | drag Pelotons name through the mud in unrelated discussions.
           | That to me would be what I would speculate led to the
           | downvotes.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | renewiltord wrote:
           | I've responded to a few of these "share if you're downvoting"
           | comments and usually they're just a vehicle for an argument.
           | 
           | But whatever, I'll do it this time too. I downvoted your
           | comment because it bored me with how repetitive the idea it
           | expresses is. I don't need to go into every Apple thread and
           | be reminded they have a walled garden, every Microsoft thread
           | and reminded of their antitrust stuff, every Peloton thread
           | and reminded of the treadmill. It was mainstream news in the
           | US, dude.
           | 
           | I have only so much time and I don't want to spend it reading
           | the same thing over and over again.
           | 
           | Hence a downvote for boring me.
        
         | tw04 wrote:
         | As I said in that thread: there was never anything wrong with
         | their treadmills. They function exactly like all of their
         | competitors treadmills WRT: dangerous for pets and small
         | children.
         | 
         | On top of the safety key which was easily removable, they've
         | now added a PIN on top - so if pulling out the magnetic key is
         | too much effort you don't even have to do that.
        
           | alexaholic wrote:
           | It's not the function, but the form that's wrong with those
           | treadmills
        
           | ibero wrote:
           | In that very thread the top comment thread is specifically
           | about the treadmills lacking a "guard or plastic covering on
           | the bottom that stops the tread from pulling something
           | underneath."
           | 
           | that too me is something that would fall under a "factory
           | fix."
        
             | tw04 wrote:
             | Which was a silly suggestion, and if you look at their
             | competitors (nordic track being the primary) - they have no
             | such plastic guard. Their fix is a pin, you can return the
             | treadmill if you don't like that option.
             | 
             | The only thing that plastic guard will do is create a spot
             | for clothing and fingers to get caught.
        
               | fastball wrote:
               | Yes, a plastic guard creates opportunities for catching
               | fingers and clothing, but (unsurprisingly) people think
               | this is preferable to their child's head getting caught
               | in the treadmill[1]. A child was killed by one of these
               | things.
               | 
               | It is absolutely a massive design flaw that this
               | treadmill lacks a protective guard and/or an automatic
               | cutoff that triggers when it sees an unexpected level of
               | resistance. You know, like if a child's head gets caught
               | in it.
               | 
               | [1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onXNnlCYJ4Y
        
               | tw04 wrote:
               | Which, again, happens with all treadmills, because they
               | are dangerous. Which is why there is a security key and a
               | giant warning to keep small children and pets away from
               | it.
               | 
               | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4350594/Girl-3-s
               | eri...
        
               | fastball wrote:
               | It doesn't happen with _all_ treadmills, it happens on
               | treadmills without a guard. You pointing to other flawed
               | designs doesn 't make Peloton's design less flawed.
        
               | tw04 wrote:
               | I'd challenge you to find me 10 treadmills that have the
               | guard you speak of. I have personally looked at probably
               | 2 dozen treadmills in my life while shopping. Run on
               | hundreds in gyms across the globe. I can't think of a
               | single treadmill I've ever come across with a plastic
               | guard across the bottom. I have no doubt a few exist but
               | I would be absolutely shocked to find out they exist in a
               | meaningful enough number to be anything but a rounding
               | error.
        
               | fastball wrote:
               | I'd challenge you to do the opposite, because my
               | experience is apparently the antithesis of yours. I have
               | run on treadmills in gyms all over the world as well and
               | I can't remember using a single one that didn't have
               | better protection from sucking small things into it than
               | the Peloton. Every treadmill I've used (as far as I can
               | recall) either had a much more enclosed back or a
               | (usually metal) bar to prevent exactly the situation that
               | occurred in the video I posted.
        
           | theli0nheart wrote:
           | You are engaging is incredibly irresponsible behavior, and
           | your claim is untrue. Peloton's treadmills have an elevated
           | backside and no under tread guard to prevent being pulled
           | from underneath the machine. Kids have died from this defect.
           | You are threatening the safety of young children by helping
           | spread this lie.
        
             | dang wrote:
             | Please make your substantive points without falling into
             | the flamewar style and especially without escalating to
             | personal attack. When someone else is wrong, it suffices to
             | supply correct information.
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
        
               | theli0nheart wrote:
               | I knew I'd probably get flagged for this, and I'm sorry
               | for devolving this thread. A close friend's child was
               | severely maimed as a result of this defect, so when
               | someone with nothing at stake shares an opinion that
               | "nothing is wrong", it struck a nerve. Only sending love.
               | 
               | Edit: This is the first time in over a decade on HN that
               | I've posted an apology and been downvoted for it. Is this
               | kind of followup against site guidelines or discouraged?
               | I'm trying to understand what I've done wrong here. This
               | feels incredibly toxic.
        
               | dang wrote:
               | I'm sorry to hear about your friend's child. That would
               | be the kind of detail that would make the original
               | comment much more meaningful and relatable, though of
               | course it's also a sensitive thing that one might not
               | want to include.
               | 
               | I wouldn't worry about the occasional errant downvote; if
               | it isn't a noticeable pattern, it's best to remember that
               | misclicks are a thing, and just move on. People will
               | usually give corrective upvotes in such cases (https://hn
               | .algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor...).
               | If it does become a noticeable pattern, then it's best to
               | reflect on what in one's comments might be giving rise to
               | it, because the odds in that case are that there's
               | something worth adjusting.
        
             | tw04 wrote:
             | I'm not, because I remove the safety key when I'm not using
             | it. It takes literally 1 second, it's a magnetic key. The
             | amount of effort to install and remove it is a fraction of
             | what it takes to tie my shoes before a run.
             | 
             | If someone leaves a loaded gun on the kitchen counter and
             | leaves it for an unsupervised child to play with, do you
             | blame the gun manufacturer, or the parent?
             | 
             | https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4350594/Girl-3-ser
             | i...
        
               | ipaddr wrote:
               | You do in some places. Blame the gun for existing.
        
       | conk wrote:
       | I'm surprised they don't already have a North America facility
       | for final assembly. The idea of shipping finishes treadmills and
       | exercise bikes just seems impractical and expensive.
        
         | JoblessWonder wrote:
         | FWIW, they don't ship finished bikes or treadmills to
         | customers. There is a final "assembly" that takes place in the
         | owner's home. Just putting the pieces together, nothing too
         | intense and lasts maybe 30 minutes.
         | 
         | I got mine before COVID, but I know that it was a big to-do
         | during COVID because everyone wanted a bike but people didn't
         | want strangers coming in to their houses to install them.
         | (Understandable at the time.)
        
         | asdff wrote:
         | Most bikes you buy online are like this. The bike shop puts it
         | together for you.
        
         | jdeibele wrote:
         | My wife ordered an electric bike about a year ago from
         | Strom/Stroem and it finally showed up a couple of weeks ago. I
         | did the "final assembly", which was attaching the handlebars
         | and front wheel. The hardest part was putting a plastic cover
         | over the 5 cables on the downtime. That took two people, one to
         | hold the cables while the other snapped the cover in place.
         | 
         | The bike was designed in Denmark but the box came from
         | Thailand. I would guess that ocean shipping for Peloton from
         | China to Los Angeles or Long Beach and then truck or rail from
         | there to Portland is slightly cheaper than just truck or rail
         | from Ohio but probably not enough to matter.
         | 
         | I'd never tried an electric bike before. I can see why people
         | use them instead of cars. It's pretty awesome.
        
       | Theodores wrote:
       | I am impressed that they have turned a low volume product in the
       | cycle trade into a cash cow. Their products get used and were
       | much loved during lockdown.
       | 
       | But do they sell in the Netherlands? Point being that exercise
       | can be built into your life, cycling to work, the shops or to see
       | friends and family.
       | 
       | As much as I am impressed by the Peloton product, here I am right
       | now in a nature reserve with ample birdsong, having taken 45
       | minutes to get here by foot with my flask and phone. I am not
       | likely to buy their products, my real bicycle cost a fraction of
       | a treadmill and it actually gets me from A to B as do my boots.
       | 
       | There is something wrong when mankind is buying SUVs and these
       | glorified hamster wheels.
       | 
       | I only saw a few regular dog walkers on my stroll today but they
       | are neighbours and I said hello. I don't want a virtual hello on
       | a hamster wheel, thanks.
        
         | RC_ITR wrote:
         | Hey - if you really are where you say you are, put down your
         | phone and disconnect for a bit.
        
         | gamblor956 wrote:
         | Peloton sold well during the pandemic precisely because people
         | _couldn 't cycle to work,_ or go to shops, or the gym, or see
         | friends and family.
         | 
         | Moreover, having a Peloton does not conflict with _also_ going
         | outside for exercise; most of the Peloton users I know engage
         | in outdoor activities like (trail) running and mountain biking
         | and have the machine because it 's convenient to just hop on
         | whenever.
         | 
         | There is something wrong when a man thinks that a slow stroll
         | through a nature reserve constitutes anything even remotely
         | close to the type of exercise one gets in a cycling class.
        
           | Theodores wrote:
           | If I am on my way to work I am motivated to not be late. I
           | can truly go for it and reliably give myself the least amount
           | of time for the journey because it is a bike and traffic or
           | schedules of trains or buses matter not.
           | 
           | If I am on a glorified hamster wheel I have none of that
           | motivation. I also lack the exhilaration from having
           | survived. It means nothing to me.
        
       | tw04 wrote:
       | I find this thread fascinating. Everyone acknowledges we need
       | solid manufacturing jobs to return to the US to help create more
       | middle-class jobs. Peloton makes this announcement and it's
       | nothing but sarcasm and snark. I can't tell if it's just
       | responses from people that are all in Silcon Valley and
       | completely oblivious to the plight of Midwest Americans, or
       | people that are just being mean for the sake of being mean.
       | 
       | So I'll say: kudos to you Peloton. Subsidy or not, providing some
       | much-needed jobs to the Midwest. They could have just as easily
       | setup the factory in Mexico to reduce labor costs, but didn't.
        
         | MeinBlutIstBlau wrote:
         | Might I bring up the Foxconn factory in WI...
         | 
         | As a midwesterner, I'll believe it when it's built. Otherwise
         | to me it's just another means of washing bribe money somehow.
        
           | SQueeeeeL wrote:
           | I remember hearing the governor of WI so proud of
           | "WisconValley" as he dubbed it. And it was all basically an
           | elaborate tax scam by FoxConn which sucked up a bunch of tax
           | money and basically evaporated.
        
             | missedthecue wrote:
             | Foxconn didn't get paid cash up front. The tax breaks are
             | on earned income over the next several decades. They didn't
             | earn any income. They didn't get any tax breaks.
             | 
             | Yes, the state of Wisconsin sunk some money into
             | infrastructure in the area, but that just means
             | infrastructure got built in Wisconsin. That's not profit
             | for Foxconn.
        
               | valleyer wrote:
               | Good points. So what did Foxconn gain? Or was it really
               | just a slip-up?
        
               | DiabloD3 wrote:
               | It was a slip up in the sense that Foxconn didn't get to
               | go home with the money, since there was hardly any up
               | front.
               | 
               | Foxconn is known for the, uh, con, so a lot of industry
               | insiders weren't surprised this entire thing played out
               | the way it did.
        
               | c618b9b695c4 wrote:
               | >but that just means infrastructure got built in
               | Wisconsin.
               | 
               | Quite a bit of the infrastructure goes nowhere -it only
               | benefits a factory built out at that location. As a
               | Chicago resident who sometimes visits Milwaukee, I will
               | personally note that the interstate construction was
               | horrible and ripped up roads that had been completed just
               | a few years prior.
               | 
               | To say nothing of the people that lost their homes to
               | eminent domain.
        
           | matwood wrote:
           | Everyone knew the Foxconn plant was a joke when it happened,
           | and was mainly to get Trump off their backs by giving him a
           | photo op.
        
           | tw04 wrote:
           | Foxconn has a long history of doing exactly what they did in
           | Wisconsin - over and over and over again. That's ignoring the
           | fact their initial claim of investing $10 billion was absurd
           | on its face.
           | 
           | Peloton has a very real financial incentive to do this.
           | Treadmills and bikes are HEAVY, and as they called out in the
           | article the demand has outstripped supply and rush shipping
           | from overseas has been extremely expensive for them.
           | 
           | Foxconn's reasoning was essentially: we don't want to be
           | caught up in Trump's trade war so we'll say we're building
           | this factory and get a bunch of tax breaks.
        
           | nomoreplease wrote:
           | > Might I bring up the Foxconn factory in WI...
           | 
           | You may, but might I mention those are different
           | circumstances? In one case, it's a foreign company and a
           | government leaders making grandiose statements with little
           | action.
           | 
           | In this example, it's a publicly traded US company that's
           | making the move to control their own supply chain that was
           | affected by foreign manufacturing. They stated they intend to
           | break ground this summer. Could you wait a few months to see?
        
         | ibero wrote:
         | You are referring to 2 comments both heavily downvoted.
        
           | iaHN wrote:
           | I know the phrase gets overused but that would be a prime
           | example of virtue signaling.
        
           | president wrote:
           | I don't agree with the comments in question but downvoting
           | them to oblivion is a bit harsh and uncalled for. It's like
           | that scene from the high school movie trope where a group of
           | kids tells another kid they can't sit at their lunch table.
        
             | dang wrote:
             | That would be more like downvoting an account or a person.
             | Downvoting a comment simply signals that there's something
             | wrong with the comment. If the next comment is fine, it's
             | welcome at the lunch table.
             | 
             | It's true that comments sometimes get downvoted unfairly,
             | but I'm not seeing that in this thread. In such cases,
             | though, the thing to do is give them a corrective upvote: h
             | ttps://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor
             | ....
        
           | mediaman wrote:
           | As of this writing, the majority of root-level comments are
           | some mix of extreme cynicism and knee-jerk reactions. But
           | you're right, at least they're downvoted.
           | 
           | I think the reason is that most of HN is not very
           | knowledgeable of manufacturing generally (one commenter was
           | shocked at spending $400m on a factory), combined with hatred
           | for Peloton (for whatever reason) specifically.
        
         | the_only_law wrote:
         | I'll bite: are the majority of jobs going to support middle
         | class lifestyles. I used to live in a town where there was a
         | decent amount of manufacturing and your basic "machine
         | operator" was probably getting paid less than what retail
         | companies are offering right now.
        
         | slver wrote:
         | > it's nothing but sarcasm and snark
         | 
         | The average fella will always want to just drink a beer with
         | friends and badmouth the politicians, their boss, a few
         | celebrities and some rich people. Forums like this one are just
         | the electronic version of it.
         | 
         | It doesn't matter.
         | 
         | That said, look for Peloton having solid business reasons to do
         | this, maybe even tax subsidies and the like. A CEO may have
         | their best intention to help America and create jobs and so on
         | good things. But still ultimately it has to also make business
         | sense, because they answer to a board and the board answers to
         | shareholders.
        
           | lotsofpulp wrote:
           | >because they answer to a board and the board answers to
           | shareholders.
           | 
           | Because customers will purchase alternatives that are 5%
           | cheaper.
        
             | unixhero wrote:
             | I bought one that does not come with a monthly
             | subscription.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I was referring to people knowingly choosing to purchase
               | products made with cheaper labor from overseas over more
               | expensive products made with domestic labor/environmental
               | regulations.
        
             | brandonmenc wrote:
             | Plenty of people will spend an extra 5% to buy something
             | Made in the USA.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | The lack of manufacturing capability in the US for
               | consumer products shows that either it's more than a 5%
               | premium and/or "plenty of people" is an insufficient
               | amount for large scale businesses.
        
             | slver wrote:
             | That's fine. I wasn't trying to strike a cynical tone.
             | 
             | A business is a business. It has to make choices that make
             | business sense.
        
               | lotsofpulp wrote:
               | I was not either. I just like to point out that people
               | like to blame executives and shareholders and owners, and
               | yet it is the country as a whole knowingly voting with
               | their dollars for cheaper products made with cheaper
               | labor from overseas that enable those businesses to
               | succeed (and consequently the businesses using domestic
               | labor to fail).
               | 
               | So a CEO answers to a board answers to shareholders
               | answers to the collective population of buyers, which is
               | us.
        
         | xsmasher wrote:
         | The comments I see are mocking the product as rich-people toys;
         | completely ignoring the software/services side of the equation.
         | 
         | We wouldn't see the same snark if it was a Razer mouse factory,
         | even though that's also rich-people toys, because it's more
         | line with average HN user's interests.
        
           | elzbardico wrote:
           | We should be glad we keep finding ways for the uber rich to
           | spend at least some of all the money they've been hoarding
           | the last 20 years.
        
         | foxyv wrote:
         | I always hesitate to praise new plants in the US. They added a
         | Sketchers distribution center in my home town and they just
         | closed the other locations laying off a ton of workers. It was
         | so automated it replaced a couple other plants with less than
         | half the workers that were laid off. With the tax breaks it was
         | given, it was a net negative for the city even accounting for
         | the jobs it "Made".
        
           | onepointsixC wrote:
           | Unless there were ridiculously excessive tax breaks, I fail
           | to see the issue. Where as they previously had a greater
           | number of workers doing the same thing, they now have fewer
           | workers who are more productive. More productive workers
           | could receive higher wages as their work ultimately generates
           | more value.
        
           | kortilla wrote:
           | That's still better than a plant opened in Mexico that
           | results in 0 US jobs overall.
        
           | RandallBrown wrote:
           | How can a tax break be a net negative for the city if it
           | creates new jobs in the city (assuming the other location
           | layoffs were in _different_ cities).
           | 
           | Without the tax break, none of the new jobs would have been
           | made in the city at all.
        
             | sandworm101 wrote:
             | >> How can a tax break be a net negative for the city if it
             | creates new jobs in the city
             | 
             | Any time the costs to the city outweigh the benefit of
             | getting those jobs. Industrial pollution can be a greater
             | detriment than a handful jobs. Or the city can turn over
             | land that would otherwise be put to other uses. Or the jobs
             | might all be people who don't actually live in the city,
             | saddling the city with resulting traffic/pollution issues
             | but with no practical job benefits. I don't know or think
             | that Peloton is going to do such things, but it is very
             | possible for downsides to be greater than the benefit of
             | creating jobs.
             | 
             | A classic example might be a distribution warehouse (not
             | amazon, oldschool warehouse). Maybe there are five or ten
             | people who work at the facility, but the city has to deal
             | with a constant flow of trucks in and out. The downside of
             | those trucks will probably be greater than the handful of
             | jobs a warehouse may generate.
        
               | baybal2 wrote:
               | Where do people keep seeing "industrial pollution" in
               | very basic, not material intensive light industry?
               | 
               | There are very few things in the light industry today
               | making pollution. PCB etchants, dyes, solvents -- all
               | being actively reclaimed for decades.
        
             | foxyv wrote:
             | The trucks tore the heck out of the roads and there were a
             | lot of infrastructure upgrades like stop lights.
        
             | digdugdirk wrote:
             | In an ideal situation, that would absolutely be the case.
             | The trouble comes when neighbouring suburban "cities" start
             | competing against each other for the potential for a
             | business like OP referenced.
             | 
             | Oftentimes these are just incorporated industrial areas
             | with minimal housing and little/no incentive to invest in
             | public services. The businesses in this city/township are
             | certainly running the show, and the few people living
             | within those borders have little to no incentive or ability
             | to organize and work for change. Afterall - people with
             | surplus money/time would choose to live elsewhere.
             | 
             | Its a vicious cycle to the bottom, since these types of
             | cities/townships compete against the main city proper (in
             | the case of large urban areas) or other nearby cities and
             | towns that are actually trying to provide for their
             | citizens.
        
             | SkyPuncher wrote:
             | A few things:
             | 
             | * It sets a precedent for other companies to leverage the
             | same tax breaks.
             | 
             | * Facilities still use public roads and infrastructure. A
             | road with 50 more trucks per day deteriorates more quickly,
             | but the facility isn't paying for that directly.
        
             | vkou wrote:
             | Cities typically don't collect income tax, so their ability
             | to derive revenue from 'job creation' is limited.
             | Especially if the people working those jobs are
             | living/shopping in the next town over.
        
             | dexterdog wrote:
             | If the cost of the tax break is more than the salaries of
             | the employees then it would be cheaper to just hand out the
             | money.
        
         | AzzieElbab wrote:
         | I suspect few people actually want to work at manufacturing
         | factories
        
           | jpindar wrote:
           | WTF?
        
             | AzzieElbab wrote:
             | I worked at two, in two countries. Experience not worth
             | reliving
        
         | Analemma_ wrote:
         | Part of the cynicism is that we've seen announcements like this
         | before get quietly abandoned once the fanfare fades away. Apple
         | was making Mac Pros in Texas... then they stopped and moved
         | production to China. Microsoft was making the Surface Hub in
         | Oregon for a little while... then they stopped and moved
         | production to China. And don't even get me started on the
         | Wisconsin Foxconn fiasco.
         | 
         | Cynicism is a perfectly justified response to announcements
         | like this.
        
           | slver wrote:
           | > Apple was making Mac Pros in Texas... then they stopped and
           | moved production to China.
           | 
           | Quote:
           | 
           | "It was an experiment to prove that the U.S. supply chain
           | could work as good as China's, and it failed miserably," a
           | former senior manager is quoted as saying.
           | 
           | No one opens a whole factory just for the PR. They tried, and
           | the experiment didn't work. The US has objective problems in
           | supporting mass manufacturing and assembly. Guilting
           | companies into it won't work.
        
             | makomk wrote:
             | The problem that the US has supporting mass manufacturing
             | and assembly is that companies like Apple stopped making
             | things there, and once that happened all the expertise and
             | supply chains to support that manufacturing was lost,
             | meaning that now it's not possible to make stuff in the US
             | anymore and those companies are totally dependent on China
             | which didn't make this mistake. Part of the problem Apple
             | had was that they couldn't get items as basic as screws in
             | the quantities needed from US suppliers, and why would they
             | be able to when there's no US manufacturers which need
             | those items in those quantities?
        
               | slver wrote:
               | There's a chicken egg problem, but let's not blame Apple
               | for this trend. Apple's original move to China in the 90s
               | was ALSO prompted by the need to scale. This wouldn't
               | make sense if we interpret things the way you do.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | dang wrote:
         | The contrarian dynamic strikes again! https://hn.algolia.com/?d
         | ateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&sor....
         | 
         | You're not wrong about the thread, or rather the initial time
         | sequence of the thread--but it's important to understand that
         | that is not representative of the community. It is only the
         | self-selected first-to-comment. Unfortunately the comments with
         | the fastest TTP (time to post) tend to be the ones produced by
         | reflexive reactions, and--also unfortunately--most reflexive
         | reactions are negative ones.
        
           | [deleted]
        
             | dang wrote:
             | > _Next steps after identifying the problem?_
             | 
             | The only step I know that seems viable is the long, slow
             | process of community education. Technical solutions don't
             | really seem like they would help. I suppose we could put up
             | a nag screen when there aren't many comments in a thread,
             | asking people to check whether they're posting from the
             | right place...but we've always tried to avoid that kind of
             | thing, and even if each such step made sense individually
             | they would soon compound into something annoying.
             | 
             | Fortunately, not everyone needs to understand these things,
             | just enough to start feeding back into the system and
             | affecting the culture.
        
               | fighterpilot wrote:
               | What about a nag screen that only pops up when the post
               | sounds snarky or angry, as determined by a ML/NLP model
        
               | dang wrote:
               | I'd need to see such a model doing a good-enough job of
               | identifying snarky / angry comments. The worst case of
               | such a solution is that it's almost good enough but not
               | quite--an uncanny valley type thing--in which case it
               | will just piss people off. And anything less good than
               | that would merely add noise.
        
           | koheripbal wrote:
           | I think it's worse than that. Social media sites suffer from
           | their own popularity as they attract new younger audiences.
           | 
           | I think HN is suffering from its own success with a notable
           | drop is comment / post quality.
           | 
           | The first rule of HN is you don't talk about HN. ... also, if
           | you've found a new forum, please let me know!
        
             | dang wrote:
             | The attempt to avoid or at least stave off the traditional
             | decline curve of internet forums is kind of the original
             | idea behind HN:
             | 
             | https://news.ycombinator.com/newswelcome.html.
             | 
             | https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&s
             | o...
             | 
             | I don't think this particular issue is related to new
             | younger audiences, because--by inspection at least--the
             | initial wave of objections isn't noticeably coming from
             | newer users. I haven't specifically analyzed that though.
             | 
             | Complaints about "notable" drops in quality go back all the
             | way to the beginning of HN. Of course it's possible that
             | they're all true, but that would be a _lot_ of notable
             | drops. Or maybe some are true and some aren 't, in which
             | case we're fluctuating within a range... or maybe they
             | didn't use to be true but now they are true? That's of
             | course what the person perceiving the "notable drop" always
             | feels--but there are also other explanations for this
             | feeling, such as sample bias and nostalgia bias (https://hn
             | .algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=true&que...).
             | It's pretty hard to establish anything objective about it.
             | If I randomly look at past frontpages and past comments,
             | they don't seem consistently better or worse (but see the
             | previous sentence).
        
           | defaultname wrote:
           | When they left that reply there was a tiny number of
           | `cynical' replies. Replies that most people would just skim
           | right past and look for substance, though there really isn't
           | a lot to discuss about "company announces manufacturing
           | plant" beyond things like tax incentives (which would be a
           | cynical comment). Maybe people could talk about automation if
           | there were details and it was further along, but it isn't.
           | It's just an announcement.
           | 
           | Any assumption that a site frequented by people around the
           | globe should be euphoric about a US manufacturing plant seems
           | flawed.
           | 
           | I don't intend this comment to argue with them or with the
           | assessment, but I've lurked on HN long enough to see the
           | growing tide of early onset pearl clutchers who hit a quiet
           | thread with a trite "Well I've never!" moral righteousness,
           | then enjoying waves and waves of adulation while the target
           | of their disdain are pummeled. What is the dynamic behind
           | that? Shouldn't it have a name, because it is a negative,
           | increasingly common tactic that sidetracks many threads.
        
             | dang wrote:
             | Sorry, but I'm not really following you. Certainly there's
             | no assumption that anyone should be euphoric about
             | anything.
        
           | Nition wrote:
           | We're lucky in a sense to have a double-contrarian dynamic
           | here.
           | 
           | On Reddit there's only a single-contrarian dynamic, where the
           | contrarian post remains at the top, and is less liable to be
           | questioned than the original article. Sometimes the top-
           | voted, contrarian post has evidently not actually read the
           | article.
           | 
           | Of course in older days of forums there was an infinite-
           | contrarian dynamic, where the arguing back and forth
           | continued forever.
        
           | mensetmanusman wrote:
           | You should write a book on moderation.
        
         | happytoexplain wrote:
         | >people that are all in Silcon Valley and completely oblivious
         | to the plight of Midwest Americans
         | 
         | I'm not seeing this attitude here. The (heavily downvoted)
         | comments are all criticizing feasibility. A factory quickly
         | shut down helps nobody. Maybe they're wrong, but not everything
         | needs to immediately devolve into binary identity politics,
         | with the clueless elites vs the struggling Americans.
        
         | pie420 wrote:
         | No. Stop giving kudos before anything is done. Give kudos when
         | the money is spent, the factory is running, and the peletons
         | say "Proudly made in Ohio". Until then, this is another foxconn
         | free press incident. Peletons makes an announcement "Built in
         | USA", it helps the brand, consumers get a vague feeling that
         | all Peletons are built in the USA, then peletons quietly nixes
         | those "plans" outsources to China, and they keep the consumer
         | goodwill while exporting jobs to China.
         | 
         | You give kudos for actions, not words. At this point you are
         | just anti-anti-peleton circlejerking
        
         | colinmhayes wrote:
         | Good paying manufacturing jobs are not coming back in any
         | meaningful way, globalization made sure of that.
         | 
         | That doesn't mean manufacturing won't come back, just that it
         | will be highly automated or the jobs won't be high paying.
        
           | mediaman wrote:
           | No disrespect meant, but this sentiment is common among those
           | without any experience with US manufacturing.
           | 
           | Industrial maintenance mechanics make $25-35 an hour
           | depending on skills. Machinists make $30-50/hr. Skilled
           | machine operators earn $22-30+ hourly depending on the type
           | of machine and skill required. Plants like these hoover up
           | industrial, mechanical, electrical, process, mechatronic
           | engineers all at over $100k.
           | 
           | Perhaps you meant that completely unskilled labor is less in
           | demand at manufacturing facilities. Even that isn't really
           | true: the idea that 100% of these roles are automated is
           | often believed by people without exposure to manufacturing;
           | the reality is that you still need a lot of unskilled people
           | making $15-20/hour for the plant to work, even with plenty of
           | automation.
           | 
           | There are certainly fewer jobs than before, due to greater
           | efficiencies and automation, but they aren't bad paying.
        
             | colinmhayes wrote:
             | I'd say $20-25 is the cut off for good paying so really
             | only the well paid people are the skilled ones. Those jobs
             | will continue to exist, but will not be as numerous as
             | unskilled jobs that paid well once were.
        
         | baybal2 wrote:
         | > Peloton makes this announcement and it's nothing but sarcasm
         | and snark.
         | 
         | Because people expect another Juicer here. There is no way in
         | the world for a bicycle factory to cost $400M.
         | 
         | For such money, I can setup you 400 bicycle factories, and
         | somebody who is an industry insider can probably do even more.
         | 
         | I myself been involved with company trying to start a scooter
         | knockdown kit assembly line, with some parts manufacturing 7
         | years ago in BC, Canada, and Washington state in USA.
         | 
         | It was all around $800k USD, which includes 1 year of
         | operation. It was all a complete disaster though on the
         | manpower, and supplies side, as everybody except for the
         | company owner expected.
         | 
         | The first line worked who did not manage to miswire a colour
         | coded, mechanically keyed harness with just 6 connectors was a
         | MEng graduate who wanted 60 something thousand USD, and was
         | slow as molasses.
         | 
         | And yes, custom fasteners were impossible to procure in North
         | America as such. Fastener companies wouldn't even talk to you
         | if you don't put up n*$100k up front. Same thing in China
         | starts in under $10k.
        
           | jjk166 wrote:
           | Yeah there's a big difference between a 1 Million square foot
           | factory for a major manufacturer and a couple used tormachs
           | in a garage.
        
             | baybal2 wrote:
             | Even just hearing "tormachs" is already telling.
             | 
             | If anybody done serious manufacturing, they know to avoid
             | machining like a curse.
             | 
             | I really feel they (and pretty much everybody else in this
             | "manufacture in USA" bunch) don't really know what they are
             | doing.
        
           | jaywalk wrote:
           | The 400 $1 million bicycle factories will probably fare just
           | as well as your $800k scooter assembly factory. I think
           | Peloton knows a little bit more about manufacturing their
           | product than you do.
        
             | baybal2 wrote:
             | I don't think so
        
           | dr-detroit wrote:
           | Peloton isn't a bike.
           | 
           | My dad works for Nintendo and he told me for the average
           | commercial construction project it costs roughly $14,225,000
           | to build a medium sized warehouse (25,000 square feet) in
           | Ohio.
        
       | intricatedetail wrote:
       | We need country of origin information on products along with some
       | colour coding, e.g. if given country has minimum wage, slave
       | Labour etc. If product contains parts and labour from many
       | countries then all should be listed ordered by level of
       | participation.
        
         | barbazoo wrote:
         | I'd support that. Regarding country of origin, doesn't every
         | product have a "Made in ..." on it and it's packaging? I'm only
         | familiar with Europe and Canada though.
        
           | halostatue wrote:
           | This is inconsistent. In Canada, at least, "Made in Canada"
           | or "Produced in Canada" does not necessarily mean "made
           | mostly in Canada from Canadian parts". All that's necessary
           | is a certain percentage of assembly or preparation (for
           | foods).
           | 
           | I'm not sure of the _exact_ proportions required, but I first
           | noticed this on food products ("Prepared in Canada from
           | domestic and foreign ingredients" is frequently found on
           | foods I buy).
        
           | intricatedetail wrote:
           | I've seen products "made in USA" where they get preassembled
           | product from China and only load firmware and put a sticker
           | with serial number. Insane.
        
         | just-ok wrote:
         | Perhaps we could store that information on the blockchain and
         | put it on a QR code in the clothing label... /s
        
         | 8ytecoder wrote:
         | Not nearly enough to change behaviour. I knew fully well the
         | impact of buying A vs B in a recent purchase decision - A is
         | unethical but B was a full $1000 more. It was hard to suck it
         | up and do the right thing. If we want to effect change, just
         | add a tax that equalizes unfair advantages - paying unliveable
         | wage? That tax should then be used to pay a basic income here.
         | If manufacturers still want to keep their facilities elsewhere
         | - for non-destructive reasons - so be it.
        
       | legitster wrote:
       | My understanding from talking to industrial engineers is that
       | American manufacturing is quite competitive when the product is
       | consistent. It's when you work in batches or need to make
       | constant adjustments to the line or product (very labor intensive
       | activities) that it gets prohibitively expensive.
       | 
       | It makes sense that Peloton foresees many, many years of sales
       | without needing to update their hardware much.
        
         | OldHand2018 wrote:
         | I know some people that run a number of small manufacturing
         | sites spread across the US. When they get something tricky,
         | they send it to their factory in (to avoid flame wars) State A,
         | which happens to spend more per student than the national
         | average. Line workers have the freedom to experiment and
         | improve the process until they have something very good, and
         | then they move the line to their factory in State B, which
         | happens to spend significantly less per student than the
         | national average. Probably just a coincidence though.
         | 
         | PS - 2020 was their best year ever and 2021 could be even
         | better. People are currently willing to pay American rates to
         | avoid supply chain risk.
         | 
         | PPS - Ohio is a great location for Peloton. I bet they can get
         | 70-80% of their product by value from supply manufacturers just
         | within the state. Expand to Michigan and Indiana and you might
         | be at 85 or 90%. This is in the Toledo metro area which already
         | has a large auto manufacturing supply chain, as well as PV
         | panel production. They've got plenty of workers and suppliers
         | to draw from.
        
           | gogopuppygogo wrote:
           | Ohio also has some beautiful areas you can enjoy nature in
           | and low cost of living. It's the winters that get you.
        
             | halfmatthalfcat wrote:
             | Same could be said for anywhere in the Midwest tbh
        
               | [deleted]
        
           | daniellarusso wrote:
           | That is a very interesting strategy.
           | 
           | It makes sense, and also having enough diversity of locations
           | to avoid infrastructure outages.
           | 
           | Very clever.
        
         | baybal2 wrote:
         | > My understanding from talking to industrial engineers is that
         | American manufacturing is quite competitive when the product is
         | consistent.
         | 
         | When the product is consistent, you can get competitive pretty
         | much everywhere. That's a luxury you will never have unless you
         | are already a big MNC.
         | 
         | On paper, US manufacturing been cheaper than in China for quite
         | a few years already, but you have to spell that "ON PAPER" with
         | big bold letters.
         | 
         | 1. Labour -- flyover states had wages comparable to South China
         | for 2-3 years.
         | 
         | 2. Education -- supposedly best in the world, supposedly, at
         | least beating Chinese public secondary school
         | 
         | 3. Supreme "intellectual" property regime -- no comparison to
         | China at all, you can sue whomever, whenever, for whatever, and
         | barristers here are even calling you themselves to offer their
         | services to sue your competitors
         | 
         | 4. Supply chain -- world's biggest companies are there, if they
         | are all here, there must be at least something they all buy.
         | 
         | 5. Taxes -- US vs. China's tax rate are incomparable: 30% vs
         | 60%-70% something depending on incalculable amount of fees,
         | charges, levies
         | 
         | How things are in reality:
         | 
         | 1. People in US you can hire cheaper than highschoolers in
         | China are really not-employable, in other words people with
         | problems.
         | 
         | 2. Education is there, but only for people who can already dish
         | out a sum, otherwise even a passable secondary education is not
         | a given.
         | 
         | 3. Yes, you can sue everybody, and the same applies in reverse
         | too!
         | 
         | 4. Those companies really do buy, and sell a lot of stuff, just
         | not from you, but the same guy you buy your stuff in China
         | 
         | 5. US taxes are half that of China, but Chinese accountants
         | know how to run from taxes 10 times better than American
         | accountants.
        
         | cwilkes wrote:
         | Huh, I would have thought constant changes would be easier
         | onshore as it is easier to talk to the factory floor in real
         | time to make the adjustments. Once that is all sorted out you
         | then send it offshore as it is easily repeatable.
        
           | legitster wrote:
           | I think people underestimate how much of offshore
           | manufacturing is done by hand still. The cheapness comes from
           | any factory being able to switch to just about any
           | competitive production quickly. But they are much less likely
           | to invest in equipment and automation.
           | 
           | At scale, there are also complications, like the cost of
           | training, labor laws, or approving role changes with the
           | union.
        
           | bluGill wrote:
           | Labor onshore is expensive. If you only need a few it doesn't
           | matter but once you have offshore labor they are flexible
           | enough to handle changes. Onshore manufacturing implies a
           | large amount of automation, but that automation limits the
           | changes you can make and still fit into the automation. If
           | the change is something that is CNC, then you can make the
           | change easily. However if the change needs a whole new jig,
           | making the jig is more expensive than having a skill
           | machinist make the part by hand with a file - those skilled
           | machinists are cheaper offshore. You pay off the jig over
           | thousands (or millions) of product.
           | 
           | Once you have production offshore it is even harder. They may
           | have made a few jigs (not as many as labor is cheap enough to
           | not need them), but and odds are even in the worst case they
           | can re-use all but one of those jigs. Thus once you are
           | offshore it is better to let offshore do the prototype work.
           | 
           | It gets far more complex than that.
        
             | baybal2 wrote:
             | "Labour" is not expensive in US, in fact it's cheaper than
             | in quite a number of other developed countries, and now
             | South China.
             | 
             | Brains, even tiniest amounts of them, are.
             | 
             | Read my story above how my first line worker in Canada whom
             | I found to not screw up a completely banal assembly was a
             | 60k+ MEng.
        
         | DavidPeiffer wrote:
         | I'd like to point out John Foley, the founder of Peloton, is an
         | industrial engineer himself. For making a physical product,
         | it's a great background to start with.
         | 
         | Lots of analogs to great programmers in terms of when to
         | optimize what, and how. Manufacturing process selection,
         | optimal batch size, make vs buy, accounting for supply chain
         | uncertainty, profitability analysis, etc.
        
       | azinman2 wrote:
       | > "We believe that working out at home is the future," the CEO
       | said. "That is why we're investing in this facility."
       | 
       | Is it really going to be that much bigger post Covid? It's not
       | like home gyms have never been thought of before, or there's
       | something new that happened that Peleton didn't already have in
       | 2019.
       | 
       | Sure Peleton has features that make it feel like you're connected
       | to a larger community. But ultimately many people want the actual
       | ability to talk to the instructor, or feel the energy from others
       | in the class (eg why live music/comedy cannot be replicated), or
       | build bonds and social relationships with others. Those that
       | don't care about these things already would have worked out at
       | home before. Sure maybe some bought this equipment during Covid,
       | but that doesn't mean it all of the sudden becomes "the future of
       | working out."
        
         | dillondoyle wrote:
         | I have been surprised how strong the Peloton online community
         | is.
         | 
         | I have more than one friend who's life has been basically taken
         | over, like Cross fitters can be. It's all she posts on
         | Instagram! Have their own group, organize rides with custom t
         | shirts and everything. Actually did a meet up in person from
         | across the country. I think she does interact with her favorite
         | instructor off the platform too.
         | 
         | Seems more personal than like a large brand spin class. Who
         | knows maybe they make some in person gyms, like a bike-share
         | program, since the bikes are so expensive.
         | 
         | But I am for sure in the category of building an intense home
         | gym that I don't use as much as I should given the cost ;)
        
         | cyrux004 wrote:
         | Cancelled my peloton fitness subscription today and back to gym
         | (Orange theory). Havent used my home treadmill for a few weeks
         | back. Its hard to stay motivated at home for long stretches.
        
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