[HN Gopher] How Iran Uses Bitcoin Mining to Evade Sanctions and ...
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       How Iran Uses Bitcoin Mining to Evade Sanctions and "Export" Oil
        
       Author : dyslexit
       Score  : 225 points
       Date   : 2021-05-22 06:48 UTC (16 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.elliptic.co)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.elliptic.co)
        
       | ceilingcorner wrote:
       | When people say "Bitcoin uses so much energy, it must be shut
       | down!" I like to remind them of a simple fact: the amount of
       | energy and military resources used to ensure the petrodollar's
       | global dominance. It's not even a comparison.
        
         | strangeattractr wrote:
         | Bitcoin enthusiasts often say this because they know the energy
         | question is one that Bitcoin can never answer but that doesn't
         | mean it's a good one.
         | 
         | The US has national interests economic and strategic that exist
         | independently of the reserve status of the US dollar. The
         | sprawling US military infrastructure does not exist to preserve
         | the status of the dollar, it exists to protect these interests.
         | The US doesn't operate bases in Germany and Japan for the
         | dollar. Or do you really believe that should Bitcoin replace
         | the dollar as the international reserve asset, these military
         | bases around the world would be closed down?
         | 
         | The importance of the petrodollar is vastly overstated and the
         | reserve status of the dollar has far more to do with the
         | liberal attitude the US takes to foreign capital flows and the
         | size and depth of US economy and consequently its capital
         | markets. Mercantilist economies such as Japan and China would
         | be unwilling to accept foreign capital flows appreciating their
         | currencies and making their exports more expensive largely
         | because of the domestic political issues this would cause.
        
         | lasagnaphil wrote:
         | I agree with your criticism on the current petrodollar system,
         | but I still don't understand how Bitcoin could replace it. I've
         | yet to see a crypto enthusiast who seems to really think about
         | the implications about world trade purely done in Bitcoin. And
         | the "there was the gold standard back then, it's going to be
         | similar" argument doesn't work, it has historically ended in
         | total disaster and countries which abandoned the system sooner
         | has recovered from the Great Depression more quickly. Right now
         | a Bancor system that's designed to balance imports and exports
         | between countries seems like the more convincing route to
         | achieve peace while continuing global trade. Any ideas?
        
           | logicchains wrote:
           | >And the "there was the gold standard back then, it's going
           | to be similar" argument doesn't work, it has historically
           | ended in total disaster and countries which abandoned the
           | system sooner has recovered from the Great Depression more
           | quickly.
           | 
           | Historically prior to the 1900s pretty much everywhere was on
           | a gold or silver standard of some sort.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | imtringued wrote:
         | That military protects more than the dollar. It also protects
         | all the real resources that give the USD value.
         | 
         | From a practical perspective Bitcoin is effectively a virtual,
         | self declared nation state but the only thing that exists
         | within that nation is Bitcoin itself. Thus military expenses in
         | the form of Bitcoin mining only cover a small subset of
         | protection offered by conventional military.
         | 
         | Because of this, most Bitcoin proponents are extremely narrow
         | minded, they think the currency equates the entire nation,
         | therefore the USD is equivalent to the entire US and only
         | protecting the USD is equivalent to protecting the entire
         | nation.
         | 
         | Every day people run into the same problem with rent control.
         | They believe there are no real resource constraints represented
         | by the price, therefore they believe changing the price alone
         | is enough to solve the problem. Yet they never realize that
         | prices are just information used to allocate scarce real
         | resources. If information is manipulated and no longer reflects
         | reality then it has become a lie and therefore serves nobody
         | except the one who told the lie.
         | 
         | Okay now that we have established that currencies are
         | information that reflect the allocation of real resources, then
         | what real resources does Bitcoin allocate? It allocates a share
         | of real resources around the world based on the people who
         | bought and sold it. The irony is that these real resources are
         | being protected by their respective governments, thus the
         | existence of the US military (and all other militaries) is an
         | essential part of Bitcoin's current valuation.
        
           | siwatanejo wrote:
           | > The irony is that these real resources are being protected
           | by their respective governments, thus the existence of the US
           | military (and all other militaries) is an essential part of
           | Bitcoin's current valuation.
           | 
           | Sadly this is true, but not for long. Bitcoin adoption is
           | still very small but it will grow. Once it grows to cover the
           | vast majority of merchants in the world, the next flip of a
           | switch will be in people's minds: they will start valueing
           | things in bitcoin (or bits, or satoshis), instead of USD,
           | EUR, etc. (In pretty much the same way people switched from
           | drachmas to euros recently...)
           | 
           | And once that happens, people will stop thinking of the fiat
           | monetary value of one bitcoin (or bit, or satoshi), and then
           | your statement will not be true anymore.
        
             | LegitShady wrote:
             | I think your scenario requires that governments not
             | influence the monetary policy of their countries, which is
             | far removed from reality. We already see china cracking
             | down on it, and the subsequent reaction in the market.
             | 
             | No country is going to give up its control of monetary
             | policy in exchange for cryptocurrency - there will simply
             | be digital currencies also controlled by governments. We
             | already see this happening. The result will be even more
             | traceable, controllable transactions - not this anarcho
             | currency you're envisioning.
        
           | hanniabu wrote:
           | > That military protects more than the dollar. It also
           | protects all the real resources that give the USD value.
           | 
           | That's really no different than bitcoin. With USD a ton of
           | energy is used to protect what backs it, which is physical
           | resources. With BTC a ton of energy is used to protect what
           | backs it, which is the chain.
           | 
           | Military also protects against external threats (like other
           | countries). Mining also protects against external threats
           | (like bad actors).
        
             | LegitShady wrote:
             | I think this is far removed from reality - if you have
             | rockets incoming would you prefer crypto or iron dome?
             | Pretending building real world military capability is the
             | same as crypto is a word game, not reality.
        
         | almost_usual wrote:
         | All it takes is world peace, so simple to solve..
        
       | 1cvmask wrote:
       | The petro dollar is enforced by might and invasions.
       | 
       | Nixon created it when he decided to leave the gold standard after
       | France demanded physical gold as payments.
       | 
       | Iran and other countries under US sanctions use alternatives
       | including barter. Bitcoin can just be one of those tools. But
       | bitcoin mining is more a function of cheap electricity and high
       | bitcoin prices. Electricity is cheap in Iran. 4.5 percent of
       | bitcoin mining is negligible given the context of the sanctions.
       | One would expect it to be at say 20 percent as their is an
       | American embargo on the country.
       | 
       | This just seems to be more of a click bait article for self
       | promotion or company promotion.
        
         | sleavey wrote:
         | > The petro dollar is enforced by might and invasions. Nixon
         | created it when he decided to leave the gold standard after
         | France demanded physical gold as payments.
         | 
         | This aspect was not clear to me until I read The Bitcoin
         | Standard by Saifedean Ammous, the first two thirds of which is
         | more of a history of money than pro-Bitcoin propaganda. There
         | he argues that moving off the gold standard was a bad idea in
         | many ways apparently unrelated to money.
         | 
         | And of course there's this famous website:
         | https://wtfhappenedin1971.com/. For reference, 1971 was when
         | Nixon decoupled the US dollar from gold.
        
           | throw0101a wrote:
           | > _There he argues that moving off the gold standard was a
           | bad idea in many ways apparently unrelated to money._
           | 
           | See _Money: The True Story of a Made-Up Thing_ by Jacob
           | Goldstein (of NPR 's _Planet Money_ ):
           | 
           | * https://bookshop.org/books/money-the-true-story-of-a-made-
           | up...
           | 
           | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacob_Goldstein
           | 
           | From what I've read on the topic, gold (and 'hard money' in
           | general) is generally not a good in most circumstances. Yes,
           | if your mint/central bank takes orders from the government to
           | create more money it can lead to bad things, but generally
           | that disaster only needs to happen once before everyone
           | realizes how bad an idea it is and probably never does it
           | again.
           | 
           | Recommend the book. _Debt: The First 5,000 Years_ is also
           | worth checking out:
           | 
           | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt:_The_First_5000_Years
        
             | PKop wrote:
             | What gold is good for is a neutral settlement asset between
             | nations with imbalanced trade. But not at a fixed currency
             | price by weight, rather floating in fiat price, which
             | forces nations to re-balance to more consumption or more
             | production depending on if they have large trade surpluses
             | or large trade deficits. Thus the pitfalls of either
             | extreme can be re-balanced by covering trade imbalances
             | with gold reserves which also devalue currencies and force
             | domestic production, or increase them and force
             | consumption.
             | 
             | Keynes's Bancor[1] was essentially this idea, but Bretton
             | Woods conference rejected this proposal. Oil exporting and
             | general surplus nations, like Russia and China, have been
             | moving in this direction by reserving more gold in recent
             | years (look up various European nation increasing gold
             | purchases since 2008) likely to move towards a more
             | multilateral system of settling trade imbalances with a
             | neutral settlement asset, rather than stockpiling fiat
             | currency or fiat currency debt "assets" created in
             | unrestricted supply by one nation, who forces world to then
             | use this inflating currency to purchase energy... which
             | equals future inflation for these nations that can't print
             | it themselves.
             | 
             | It is also useful as a personal "store of value" to avoid
             | "saving" in a depreciating fiat currency, along with other
             | "hard" assets.
             | 
             | But gold or hard money cannot be the unit of account or
             | medium of exchange for national commerce. Credit/fiat is
             | better for this.
             | 
             | This is why some have argued that there's always been and
             | probably always will be a need for "two monies".
             | Bimetallism was an embodiment of this principle. Here is a
             | very thorough discussion of this concept[0]. Ctrl+F "two
             | monies" for specifics, but the whole article is insightful.
             | 
             | This dynamic also presents itself in debates about crypto
             | currencies purpose to function as a high throughput
             | transaction currency or a more inert store of value.
             | Because of the inefficiencies of blockchain and Bitcoin's
             | finite quantity, it cannot function as a unit of account or
             | high volume transactions currency; fiat and fiat derivative
             | platforms (Cash App, Paypal, credit cards, etc) are much
             | better at serving this function. Trying to shoe-horn hard
             | money into soft money use cases (or vice versa, saving in
             | fiat) doesn't work. One form of "money" can't satisfy these
             | two distinct functions.
             | 
             | [0] http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2011/05/return-to-honest-
             | money.htm...
             | 
             | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bancor
        
               | lifty wrote:
               | This is a very astute point and it's how I've always
               | thought about Bitcoin and other crypto assets. I never
               | understood why people have to debate whether it will take
               | over currencies like the USD or EUR, which it will
               | probably never do. Crypto assets can have utily for
               | trading among enemies or situations where normal fiat
               | currency cannot be used. Think about places with
               | dysfunctional institutions, escaping inflation in places
               | like Venezuela or fleeing war. And then there's the
               | programability aspect which is a totally novel use case
               | which I'm not going to go into.
        
               | throw0101a wrote:
               | > _Crypto assets can have utily for trading among enemies
               | or situations where normal fiat currency cannot be used._
               | 
               | Maybe crypto will get there _eventually_ , like tech
               | crashed in 2000-2001 (AMZN down 90%) and things have
               | 'stabilized' now, but it's been over ten years already
               | since Satoshi published and this is where we are:
               | 
               | > _So. Bitcoin fell 53% in five weeks, and then it
               | rallied 35% in four hours. Two observations for now: 1)
               | Nobody in their [right] mind would enter into a
               | transaction denominated in bitcoin; 2) It 's too early to
               | say the bubble's burst (or to say this is a new bull
               | market)._
               | 
               | * https://twitter.com/johnauthers/status/1395067576334655
               | 489
               | 
               | When your currency (?) is more volatile than the
               | goods/services you're using to it buy, I'm not sure how
               | useful of a 'currency' it is. Or a store of value, or a
               | unit of account.
               | 
               | Is Bitcoin or other crypto more or less volatile than the
               | price of a barrel of oil or frozen concentrated orange
               | juice futures?
        
               | robk wrote:
               | This feels like how Cuba had their own two currency
               | market with the CUP and CUC.
        
             | logicchains wrote:
             | Did you read the link the person you're replying to posted?
             | The empirical evidence there suggests that moving away from
             | hard money has been terrible for the average American, and
             | the shrinking middle class is exactly what's predicted by
             | proponents of sound money.
             | 
             | >but generally that disaster only needs to happen once
             | before everyone realizes how bad an idea it is and probably
             | never does it again.
             | 
             | That clearly isn't the case or else no country would have
             | experienced hyperinflation after the fall of Rome.
        
               | throw0101a wrote:
               | > _The empirical evidence there suggests that moving away
               | from hard money has been terrible for the average
               | American, and the shrinking middle class is exactly what
               | 's predicted by proponents of sound money._
               | 
               | The shrinking middle class, especially in the US, has
               | mostly occurred post-1980s (see Reagan and Thatcher).
               | This can be stopped and probably reversed with
               | redistributive tax policy. See Piketty:
               | 
               | * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-
               | First_Ce...
               | 
               | > _That clearly isn 't the case or else no country would
               | have experienced hyperinflation after the fall of Rome._
               | 
               | How may countries have _actually_ experienced this?
               | 
               | > _Re-arranging the Hanke-Krus list highlights something
               | however: barring three outliers (France, 1795-1796, North
               | Korea 2012, and Venezuela 2016-) there have actually been
               | only five hyperinflation "events", each associated with
               | particular large, long-term global processes (involving
               | war, decolonization, regime change, foreign denominated
               | debt /currency pegs). The spatial and temporal clustering
               | of these events is perhaps best expressed visually (Chile
               | and Zimbabwe are temporal outliers within their cluster)_
               | 
               | * https://clintballinger.wordpress.com/2019/05/24/the-
               | autocorr...
               | 
               | Hyperinflation is generally not caused by printing money,
               | rather the printing of money is _the effect of_ something
               | else:
               | 
               | > _In this paper I will argue why the common
               | misconception that "inflation is always and everywhere a
               | monetary phenomenon" cannot be used to explain most
               | historical hyperinflations. I will argue that "money
               | printing" is often the response to exogenous and unusual
               | events and not the direct cause of the hyperinflation._
               | 
               | * https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=179
               | 9102
               | 
               | * https://www.pragcap.com/hyperinflation-its-more-than-
               | just-a-...
               | 
               | China ran on paper for a century or two without issues,
               | and only went back to hard money because the Imperial
               | Court wanted more centralized control; this is covered in
               | a chapter of Goldstein's _Money_.
        
               | chii wrote:
               | > moving away from hard money has been terrible for the
               | average American
               | 
               | i think outsourcing is the cause, not moving off the gold
               | standard.
        
               | simias wrote:
               | It's one of these situations where the correlation seems
               | obvious, but the causation seems very hard to establish.
               | How world changed so drastically over the past century
               | that it always seems a bit strange to pin our current
               | woes on one single factor, "empirical evidence" be
               | damned.
        
               | sleavey wrote:
               | It's good to keep an open mind, but just look at the
               | sheer number of different metrics on that website that
               | show some kind of change at or soon after 1971. With
               | enough correlation you can make a hypothesis, hopefully a
               | testable one. Unfortunately there are no countries that
               | use a gold-backed currency left where you could perform
               | an experiment.
        
             | ItsMonkk wrote:
             | Gold is not good because it is naturally deflationary. Our
             | current system is not good because it is inflationary.
             | 
             | What you want is for the increase in the money supply to
             | match the increase in productivity. What we care about is a
             | stable M2V.
        
             | inshadows wrote:
             | What's so great about Debt: The first 5000 Years? I've
             | tried to read it but had to abandon it after first two
             | chapters as it seemed way too emotionally pushy for my
             | tastes. It gives many examples of poor indebted countries
             | and demonizes money lenders, but nowhere in these lines
             | does author elaborate how would those countries fare if
             | they weren't offered credit in first place. OK, I get it
             | that lenders impose harsh conditions, but why is it in any
             | way OK to not repay the debt, and in turn not receive any
             | credit offer in future as it becomes clear that you won't
             | repay? People keeps recommending the book but I found its
             | arguments overly populist and ignoring obvious
             | counterarguments.
        
               | throw0101a wrote:
               | > _but nowhere in these lines does author elaborate how
               | would those countries fare if they weren 't offered
               | credit in first place._
               | 
               | For one, in many/most economics textbooks you have the
               | story (fairy tale?) of cultures going from barter to
               | currency (special rocks, shells, etc). There is no
               | sociological or historical record of a culture doing
               | this. The point is reiterated in _Money_.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | My impression is that usury actually inhibits economic
               | development because you're stuck paying the interest
               | instead of investing in your future. Lower interest rates
               | encourages more risk taking economic activities.
               | Sometimes those risks don't pan out, but, if you believe
               | that overall your economy will prosper, lower interest
               | rates ensure that proceeds from risks stay more with
               | those generating the activity rather than the lenders
               | themselves. Liquidity is important but not as much value
               | creating (if everyone loans the other person $5, there's
               | a lot of "economic activity", but nothing of value has
               | been created in that fake scenario). That's simplistic of
               | course and liquidity itself can be value-generating if
               | there's intention behind it (ie vetting that the
               | liquidity generated is going to an enterprise that will
               | likely yield net returns overall for some reason).
               | 
               | That's also why there's bankruptcy protection. Sucks for
               | the lenders that their gamble didn't pay off but
               | generally they're able to take a loss and their other
               | investments can balance them out. Plus bankruptcy
               | protections apply to them to if they overextended
               | themselves or didn't manage the investments.
               | 
               | The point is that anyone can suffer an economic hardship
               | but that doesn't mean society should strive to create
               | punishing conditions if you are unlucky (or, in most
               | payday scenarios, just start off poor). Of course some
               | people will abuse the system. There are abuses happening
               | by lenders too. Economic policies around this though can
               | only work at the macro scale, so you find other ways to
               | mitigate the problems through legal structures.
               | 
               | I think there's this unhealthy association between
               | lendees not paying and it somehow being a moral failing
               | on their part. No. It's the fault of the lender for not
               | vetting their investment properly. Sure they should be
               | allowed some attempt at recollection but there need to be
               | strong usury protections too (if you want to allow high
               | interest rates in your economic region, then high usury
               | rates should be pared with much easier ability to limit
               | recovery after some limit is collected. If you think
               | about it, in payday scenarios, the successful
               | "investments" on the part of the lenders (ie the people
               | actually making good on the payments) are subsidizing the
               | lenders loans to those that can't pay. It's a vicious
               | cycle frequently for those involved because the loans
               | aren't actually generating economic value and are really
               | being used just to help people get by. High interest
               | loans really need to be restricted to risky economic
               | investments (starting a business of some kind) or those
               | with the resources that they could pay it back and just
               | have a short liquidity issue. This $500 @ 30% interest to
               | fix your car that's your only mode of transportation
               | to/from work or $1000 to go to the doctor seems seems
               | like not a useful application. It's a non-economic need
               | that person has and there's not really any likely
               | realistic scenario where those loans would have a net
               | positive impact on the economy. Forcing the area to
               | invest in useful public transportation solutions and
               | safety net for medical care would return far more value
               | to the economic prosperity and social stability/welfare
               | of the area.
        
               | inshadows wrote:
               | Thanks for long reply. But you mostly just summarized
               | what I felt about the first 2 chapters in your own words.
               | 
               | You say
               | 
               | > I think there's this unhealthy association between
               | lendees not paying and it somehow being a moral failing
               | on their part. No. It's the fault of the lender for not
               | vetting their investment properly.
               | 
               | You know what? If that's how I'm going to be treated as
               | money lender then screw it, I'm not lending anybody. They
               | need money to jump start their economy? Screw them. If
               | I'm supposed to invest in detailed research with zero
               | return, I'll be at loss in the end even if the huge risk
               | turns out in my favor. I'm keeping my money safe, let
               | them starve! Now obviously I'm not seriously that evil,
               | but you get the point. When there's no protection for
               | money lenders, when society treats them as evil (as this
               | book does), they're not going to lend anybody, and poor
               | economy won't have the capital to build from in first
               | place. And then money owners will be vilified for
               | hoarding money! You can't really win this game unless you
               | give away money for free, can you?
               | 
               | EIDT: I agree that usury is evil. Obviously investor
               | protection should go only so far, but shifting all blame
               | for failed projects on money lenders is just wrong.
               | Contracts should be obeyed.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | Then don't lend? I'm not sure why you're getting so
               | triggered. Why are you treating it as a moral obligation
               | that you have to lend? Sure there can be positive social
               | results to certain kinds of lending. If you're investing
               | for that purpose though (to improve someone's situation),
               | why are you looking to be punitive and enforce that you
               | get a return? Now maybe you're not seeing efficacy or
               | maybe you're primarily motivated by your personal
               | returns. Then invest accordingly. It seems though like
               | you want to hold power over people as a result of lending
               | out money & that to me seems like an unhealthy motivation
               | for everyone involved.
               | 
               | And as for contracts being obeyed, I'm not sure where you
               | ever got that. Contracts can be broken for all sorts of
               | reasons.
               | 
               | As a counter to your "bitch better have my money"
               | perspective. I invest money in startups and they fail. Is
               | it a moral failing on their part or mine that that
               | happened? Sometimes they don't fail. Is that due to our
               | morals? It's a bet on an outcome and people. Sometimes
               | the bet doesn't go my way. Sometimes it does. Why read
               | morals into what is in a lot of ways a game of chance?
               | I've also been a landlord & had people try to screw me
               | out of rent checks. Sure that's shitty of them to do and
               | it frustrates me but everyone has their struggles.
               | 
               | EDIT: And I didn't shift all blame on lenders. I just
               | said that usury like payday loans should be way more
               | regulated than it is in the US.
        
               | inshadows wrote:
               | I'm not triggered. Sorry, that's just my (bad) habit of
               | employing ridicule and irony in discussions. I didn't try
               | to imply that it's my obligation to lend. I'm very risk
               | averse in fact. I'm also not 100% evil, but I'm not very
               | charitable (yet). I donated several times and that's it.
               | 
               | > Sure there can be positive social results to certain
               | kinds of lending. If you're investing for that purpose
               | though (to improve someone's situation), why are you
               | looking to be punitive and enforce that you get a return?
               | 
               | Certainly there are people and organization that invest
               | with aim to help the other party. But aren't most people
               | investing to make profit? And isn't this kind of
               | investing (for profit) beneficial for society as well?
               | You provide capital early to others, and since you can't
               | use it now for your consumption you get interest in
               | return.
               | 
               | I don't think why you imply that I want to hold power
               | over people. All I'm saying is that if I don't get any
               | protection, then likely I won't invest at all. And who
               | would if there's no protection?
               | 
               | > Is it a moral failing on their part or mine that that
               | happened? Sometimes they don't fail. Is that due to our
               | morals?
               | 
               | If a company defaults on obligations then by the law it's
               | going to be liquidated, and both bond holders and stock
               | owners will be paid from that. That's the risk I'm
               | willing to bear. But if the company would have the choice
               | to renege on its obligations and keep on existing, would
               | you invest? Would anybody?
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | > But if the company would have the choice to renege on
               | its obligations and keep on existing, would you invest?
               | Would anybody?
               | 
               | Yes. Chapter 11 bankruptcy
        
               | inshadows wrote:
               | OK. I'm not US citizen, but I'll check that out. Anyway,
               | I see your point and I'll have to think about it more.
               | Maybe I'll even give the book a 2nd try. :-)
        
               | discreteevent wrote:
               | In "The Economics of Belonging" Martin Sandbu makes the
               | argument that it should be more like venture capitalism.
               | You provide a loan and get some of the upside if it works
               | out but if it doesn't then you share the loss. It would
               | at least keep people more honest.
        
               | vlovich123 wrote:
               | I don't think one approach or the other works. Interest-
               | based loans are the equivalent of hedging your risk in a
               | financial investment. That's like saying you should
               | remove financial instruments that allow for that when you
               | make stock investments. That is a position one could
               | take, but I feel like allowing for hedging is smart (&
               | besides there's all sorts of ways people can create
               | contracts to hedge risks that are impossible to regulate
               | anyway).
               | 
               | For many investments, interest-based investments seem to
               | make more sense to me. For example, investing in a
               | restaurant is not an investment that works out in favor
               | of the VC model unless you want to be inundated with low-
               | cost generic options that can scale to every market even
               | more than we are today. That's also why you have
               | collateral in such investments so that the lender has
               | ways to recoup their investment even with uncooperative
               | lendees. I think the world is complex & we have different
               | investment models to account for that complexity. I'm
               | skeptical that any one hammer will somehow solve all
               | problems. It's all trade offs in the end, no?
        
           | lifty wrote:
           | Indeed, the petro dollar has had all kinds of side effects,
           | good and bad. Like any imperial rule, some get crushed by it,
           | but peace and prosperity can be a direct outcome of it as
           | well, and I think this was the case with the American
           | "empire" after the WW2. You can google for "Pax Americana"
           | for more info about the concept.
           | 
           | ps: I say this as a non-American.
        
           | notduncansmith wrote:
           | For reference, 1971 was when Nixon first coined the term "war
           | on drugs" (after passing the Controlled Substances Act and
           | related legislation a year prior). People love to bring up
           | that website when the gold standard is mentioned, but it's
           | actually showing a broader trend of the government apparatus
           | being weaponized against the middle and lower classes.
           | 
           | Here's a quote that summarizes the effect of the time period
           | nicely:
           | 
           | "The Nixon campaign in 1968, and the Nixon White House after
           | that, had two enemies: the antiwar left and black people. You
           | understand what I'm saying? We knew we couldn't make it
           | illegal to be either against the war or black, but by getting
           | the public to associate the hippies with marijuana and blacks
           | with heroin, and then criminalizing both heavily, we could
           | disrupt those communities. We could arrest their leaders,
           | raid their homes, break up their meetings, and vilify them
           | night after night on the evening news. Did we know we were
           | lying about the drugs? Of course we did."
           | 
           | -- John Ehrlichman, to Dan Baum for Harper's Magazine in
           | 1994, about President Richard Nixon's war on drugs, declared
           | in 1971.
           | 
           | That's what the fuck happened in 1971. Then, notice how many
           | graphs actually show an inflection point around 1981 when
           | Reagan started as president, employing Nixon's Southern
           | Strategy to get elected and then serving those voters with
           | policies that attacked the lower and middle classes (slashing
           | spending on federal aid programs, raising income taxes while
           | lowering capital gains taxes, freezing the minimum wage,
           | raising military spending which is essentially a cash
           | transfer to rich arms dealers, etc). Then throw the Cold War
           | in there, and you have a US government that is in an
           | adversarial position with everyone but the 1%.
        
         | sig-reduction wrote:
         | I've always wanted to understand the geopolitics of oil and
         | gas. Despite much interested reading, I can never quite figure
         | out what's going on.
         | 
         | One of the more interesting quote's I've encountered along the
         | way, "The foreign tax rates of U.S. oil multinationals fell
         | significantly after the first Gulf War, during which the United
         | States intervened to protect Kuwait, a major oil producer.
         | Although it is not possible to know for sure what caused this
         | decline, a possible interpretation of the fall in taxes
         | collected by oil-producing countries is that they reflect a
         | return on military protection granted by the United States to
         | oil-producing States."
         | 
         | Figure 2 on page 20 has the discontinuity.
         | 
         | https://gabriel-zucman.eu/files/WrightZucman2018.pdf
        
           | ultrastable wrote:
           | You should check out Carbon Democracy by Timothy Mitchell if
           | you haven't yet
        
           | patrickk wrote:
           | https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2016-05-30/the-
           | untol...
           | 
           | This article explains the link between Saudi Arabia and the
           | US. It explains a lot about the relationship that exists
           | despite so much chaos and turmoil. As they say, money talks
           | and bullshit walks.
        
           | DSingularity wrote:
           | I think that is an important point but tangential IMO. The
           | question here is geopolitics of the dollar. Notice, when the
           | us had deep music-gonna-stop level problems in its economy it
           | prints a shit-ton of dollars. Which other country in the
           | world can do this? Nobody. And it will stay this way until
           | someone has a navy as powerful as the US.
        
             | imtringued wrote:
             | >Notice, when the us had deep music-gonna-stop level
             | problems in its economy it prints a shit-ton of dollars.
             | Which other country in the world can do this? Nobody. And
             | it will stay this way until someone has a navy as powerful
             | as the US.
             | 
             | The Eurozone can do so as well. Actually, it must do so to
             | prevent the collapse of the euro. It's the same with the
             | USD, foreign nations keep "stealing" USD and take them out
             | of the US and therefore the US must replace the lost USD
             | just to stay still.
             | 
             | Also, the fact that no money is being printed is one of the
             | biggest problems. Yes, you can increase the money supply
             | without printing. For every USD you create, you also create
             | an obligation to return it which is called debt. When the
             | newly created USD are allocated to otherwise idle resources
             | you may unlock value equivalent or higher than the debt you
             | took on. The excess value you have created in the process
             | is called economic growth. It turns out, fiat creation is
             | highly deflationary and deflationary forces from other
             | sources are extremely high as well. However, debt is
             | inaccessible to the vast majority of the population. I
             | personally still get 4% interest rates on private loans.
             | The borrowed money never ends up in the real economy
             | indicated by low inflation rates.
             | 
             | We are basically experiencing the great depression again
             | but to a milder degree, therefore we should do our best to
             | prevent it from becoming a problem in the first place. The
             | fact that the US hit inflation goals because of a pandemic
             | is pathetic. What if they were not blessed with a natural
             | disaster that spurred politicians to act (it wasn't enough
             | to get trump to act)?
             | 
             | Hitting inflation goals and moderate interest rates quickly
             | is absolutely necessary to keep the economy stable. With
             | every year of low interest and low inflation the imbalance
             | keeps growing but the correction will happen in a flash,
             | therefore we must ensure that any imbalance is as small as
             | possible before we run into the crash.
             | 
             | It's like extinguishing wild fires as soon as they happen
             | while the fire is still under control. At some point you
             | can no longer contain the fire but the consequences have
             | become unbearable.
             | 
             | It's better to crash small today, than crash big tomorrow.
             | Unfortunately, today is many years too late.
        
             | lotsofpulp wrote:
             | > And it will stay this way until someone has a navy as
             | powerful as the US.
             | 
             | Armed force superiority is a requisite for maintaining
             | order, which is a valuable good in and of itself, but the
             | country also needs to produce goods themselves (such as
             | research, medicines, technology, media) which is greatly
             | enabled by a large population that has a higher than
             | average level of trust between each other.
             | 
             | I would even assume the latter is far more difficult to
             | create than the armed forces, and only arises from a
             | perfect storm situation. And it feels like it's in a
             | downward trajectory, but hopefully that is not true or will
             | reverse.
        
               | DSingularity wrote:
               | It's all intertwined. When you can print billions and use
               | it to fund research while other countries can't -- well
               | this will also reenforce your lead.
        
             | refurb wrote:
             | I mean Canada has expanded its money supplier to a larger
             | degree than the US as a percentage of its GDP.
             | 
             | +50% since 2016, +20% since pandemic started.
             | 
             | https://tradingeconomics.com/canada/money-supply-m2
        
               | seibelj wrote:
               | And their housing price increases are even more absurd
               | than the US. The middle class is trying to hold on to
               | anything they can to protect their savings from inflation
               | and there are very few options remaining for the average
               | person.
        
               | ChuckNorris89 wrote:
               | Same in Western Europe. Housing is almost unaffordable
               | now after the ECB money printer sprint and free loans
               | from he local banks.
        
             | lifty wrote:
             | At least Japan and the EU have higher debt to GDP ratio's,
             | but the currencies of those places definitely enjoy a high
             | level of trust in the world.
        
             | woodpanel wrote:
             | * it prints a shit-ton of dollars. Which other country in
             | the world can do this?*
             | 
             | Currently, there isn't a country that isn't doing this.
             | 
             | But I agree, when the music is gonna stop globally the US
             | can print the longest.
        
               | himlion wrote:
               | There is a significant difference, those countries print
               | their own currency, but only the USA can print US
               | dollars.
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | I think this is backwards. The USSR had a navy toe-to-toe
             | competitive with the US, but never had a fraction of the
             | economic weight. The economic power of the US isn't a
             | product of it's navy, rather it's economic power is just
             | another weapon it uses alongside military force.
             | 
             | Let's look at how the petrodollar came about. The first
             | step with the run on gold in 1971 which broke the Breton
             | Woods system. The value of the dollar went through the
             | floor. Having a big navy didn't make any difference. This
             | hurt oil exporters because now their dollar earning weren't
             | worth as much, but they didn't abandon dollars. There was
             | no credible alternative, and there was no military
             | dimension to that fact.
             | 
             | Then in 1973 US support for Israel lead to the OPEC oil
             | embargo. Oil prices quadrupled. You could say it was
             | American military aid that caused this, well maybe but no
             | actual projection of force by the US was involved. Military
             | aid to Israel was no different in character from Soviet aid
             | to Arab regimes. The reasons the embargo mattered and had
             | an effect were economic reasons, not military ones.
             | 
             | When the United States-Saudi Arabian Joint Commission on
             | Economic Cooperation was established in 1979 the US hadn't
             | invaded any Middle Eastern nation, hadn't blockaded any
             | Middle Eastern ports, hadn't established any bases in the
             | Middle East. The total of their interference was support
             | for Israel, a small state a long way from any of the actual
             | oil.
             | 
             | All three of those milestones were entirely economic in
             | character. Military power projection played no part in
             | them. The US has and uses economic power anyway, regardless
             | of how effective it's navy or army is. It was a military
             | midget, but economic powerhouse in 1941 when Japan attacked
             | Pearl Harbour. It parlayed that economic power into
             | military might, not the other way around. By the end of the
             | war the US was launching 2 aircraft carriers per month due
             | to sheer economic muscle.
             | 
             | US military intervention in the Middle East long post-dates
             | the establishment of the petro-dollar. Those claiming the
             | petro-dollar is a result of military power have it exactly
             | the wrong way around.
        
               | DSingularity wrote:
               | Haven't established any bases in the Middle East? Are you
               | kidding? Building bases in the Middle East was first
               | order of business after world war 2.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prince_Sultan_Air_Base
        
               | simonh wrote:
               | I was very clearly referring to the situation in 1979
               | when the petrodollar system was formalised, which itself
               | was long after dollars became the standard currency for
               | trading oil.
               | 
               | That base was exclusively a Saudi air force base until
               | the first Gulf War, which occurred long after the dollar
               | became the standard currency for trading oil.
        
             | elcritch wrote:
             | The US'es navy is arguably much more of a result of our
             | economy than the other way around. Of course there are
             | synchronistic effects. The petro-dollar is what let's the
             | Fed print money with abandon beyond what other nations
             | could. The petro-dollar is protected by American naval
             | power. So it's a feedback cycle.
             | 
             | In a fashion, the US printing dollars lowers the value of a
             | dollar which effectively taxes the rest of the world by
             | lowering the value of their dollar denominated assets.
             | Particularly oil. Still it's an odd system as the US is
             | ultimately on the hook for that debt, to US federal debt
             | holders who are still majority Americans.
             | 
             | It'll be interesting to see how post-oil world economy will
             | handle it. Possibly more serious large scale wars between
             | regional powers.
        
               | fnord77 wrote:
               | the US pays 0 or close to 0 interest on that debt.
        
               | imtringued wrote:
               | >In a fashion, the US printing dollars lowers the value
               | of a dollar which effectively taxes the rest of the world
               | by lowering the value of their dollar denominated assets.
               | 
               | Those foreign nations take USD out of circulation and buy
               | US treasuries. They are expressing a desire that the US
               | invests the USD they spend on the bonds. When you buy US
               | treasures you do so because you think the US government
               | can spend your money better than you can spend it
               | yourself. If the US decides to not borrow your money it
               | is basically saying you should put your money elsewhere
               | but these foreign nations refuse to do so.
               | 
               | Because the US government doesn't spend the money inside
               | the US the obvious result is unemployment. There is no
               | way to increase the investment rate to account for the
               | increased savings rate. Instead, the domestic savings
               | rate of US citizens must go down to compensate for the
               | increased foreign savings rate. How does it go down?
               | Someone who is unemployed or underemployed must consume
               | more than they earn. Income inequality becomes mandatory
               | to just keep the economy alive. It's increasingly
               | unsustainable for everyone including foreign owners of
               | treasuries.
               | 
               | Of course the US has a nice president right now that
               | wants to let the damn savers save by increasing the
               | investment rate through infrastructure spending. It's a
               | win-win for everyone. The underemployed get jobs, the
               | savers get a nice investment that will not suddenly
               | collapse one day.
        
       | newaccount2021 wrote:
       | news is never accidental.
       | 
       | the subtext here is obvious: dear normal people, Uncle Sam will
       | not tolerate a competitor to the USD. get out before we
       | criminalize crypto.
        
       | lvl100 wrote:
       | How Drug Cartels Use Bitcoin Mining to...
        
       | uberdru wrote:
       | This must be a riff on the article I read a couple of months ago
       | that described Iceland's aluminum industry as a means of
       | exporting its geothermal energy. It's the only plausible argument
       | I have seen for Bitcoin's intrinsic value.
        
       | tehwebguy wrote:
       | Alternate headline: How Iran manages to maintain some semblance
       | of an economy despite immoral sanctions.
       | 
       | Not a crypto person at all but I do remember when the last US
       | president ripped up the Iran deal which afforded the
       | International Atomic Energy Agency the right to inspect their
       | operations and replaced it with... nothing. I think this is proof
       | enough that all of the talk about Iran being a threat (to the US?
       | to the world?) is vastly over hyped.
       | 
       | Now we've got warhawks, oil companies & the finance industry all
       | working together with Iran as the bogeyman driving all their
       | policies. Watch for Yellen or congress to drop some "bitcoin
       | supports Iran" talking points any minute now.
        
         | rjzzleep wrote:
         | I think what's actually interesting about it is that Iran
         | actually forbids crypto for local currency transactions,
         | because they don't want people to bypass the local currency. So
         | it's one rule for the government and another for the people.
         | 
         | But yes, I agree with most of what you said, also what Jellen
         | said about global corp tax is kind of messed up. They don't
         | want to go after their own big corps, but rather control the
         | rest of the world. As long as the fiscal years start at
         | different times, they can still shuffle money around as they
         | please, but nobody actually dares touching the US corps in the
         | US.
        
           | almost_usual wrote:
           | Bitcoin will never be true decentralization because the real
           | world runs on centralized violence and power grabs.
        
             | rjzzleep wrote:
             | It can't be decentralized to begin with, because whoever
             | has more money can run more mining and whoever mines more
             | has more power in the network. It's still more about rich
             | hording power. On the flipside it may just be a little bit
             | more distributed and accessible than the current prevalent
             | system.
        
               | siwatanejo wrote:
               | But mining doesn't grant you any power (unless you manage
               | to accumulate 51% of it, which is in this day and age
               | pretty much impossible for a single individual or
               | organization). Mining is just a service that you provide
               | (to secure the network), and you get rewarded for it.
               | 
               | Compare that to how monetary inflation works in the fiat
               | world: they just press a button, et voi-la, they got
               | their funding.
        
             | slver wrote:
             | True decentralization means you don't get to complain when
             | Bitcoin is used to do everything you hate.
             | 
             | You don't get to complain when honest people lose
             | cumulatively billions of their hard earned savings to
             | scammers and hackers.
             | 
             | You don't get to complain when peope hire hitmen, buy drugs
             | and child porn with it.
             | 
             | You don't get to complain when data mining centers hook
             | illegally to the power grid and steal millions of dollars
             | of energy.
             | 
             | Or when countries avoid sanctions, or manipulate other
             | countries through it.
             | 
             | That's precisely what decentralization and deregulation
             | looks like. It's the law of the jungle. Enjoy.
        
               | gus_massa wrote:
               | Most of the thing you listed are illegal, and paying them
               | with Bitcoins don't make them magically legal.
               | 
               | If someone makes an "Uber for hitmen", it will still be
               | illegal in spite someone is using an app to hire them and
               | paying them with their altcoins.
        
               | slver wrote:
               | Honestly it's very disappointing I have to explain this
               | but I NEVER ARGUED THE LEGALITY STATUS of these
               | activities.
               | 
               | I argue the fact Bitcoin and other coins enables crime.
               | 
               | I'll make it really simple for you: would you hire a
               | hitman with a briefcase full of cash, or you'd do a bank
               | wire with subject "for the murder, thanks"?
               | 
               | Think why we don't use bank wires for this.
               | 
               | Now think why anonymous cash transfers are hard
               | internationally.
               | 
               | Now think what Bitcoin is. It's anonymous cash over the
               | Internet.
               | 
               | It's a huge enabler for illegal activities because it's
               | anonymous and decentralized and happens over Internet.
               | 
               | You can spin it any way you wish, but the fact speak if
               | you're a criminal, Bitcoin is automatically the most
               | attractive way for making transactions to you, aside from
               | person to person cash briefcases.
               | 
               | Law is centralized by nature. Because law has to be
               | enforced in a centralized nature. Decentralization and
               | anonymity means you can't apply the law. "Illegal" means
               | therefore NOTHING to Bitcoin.
        
               | arminiusreturns wrote:
               | The irony of this whole statement is that _bitcoin isnt
               | anonymous_! (which is a core reason it lost its intended
               | value as a medium of exchange)
               | 
               | The general sentiment also applies to cash, and the
               | reality is the authorities want to track your every
               | transaction, which is why every opportunity to diminish
               | cash has and will be taken.
        
               | slver wrote:
               | It's anonymous because you see wallets, but you don't
               | know who has them. That's what anonymous means.
        
               | gus_massa wrote:
               | The reasons you give against Bitcoin can be used also to
               | against encryption.
               | 
               | We agree that hiring a hitman is illegal, and we agree
               | that it will be easier for the police to solve the crimes
               | if encryption is banned and the police can read all the
               | emails/whastapp/whatever of all the people in the city.
        
               | slver wrote:
               | I'm tired of this completely wrong argument.
               | 
               | - Encryption doesn't stop law enforcement from having
               | backdoors at key servers, and they do.
               | 
               | - Also we're discussing a financial transaction
               | instrument, which REQUIRES MASS for it to make sense (for
               | it to be valuable for transactions).
               | 
               | - While you can roll your own unique encryption and
               | communication channel and authorities won't know a thing.
               | 
               | So no, situation is completely different with encryption.
        
               | gus_massa wrote:
               | I should have written "end to end encryption".
        
               | slver wrote:
               | But if you have written it I'd have to note end-to-end
               | encryption (as in truly end-to-end) is rarely applied in
               | the real world.
               | 
               | It doesn't make even pragmatic sense, for ex. how can
               | Apple index and process your photos, if it just sees them
               | as bunch of binary noise? It can't. So it doesn't.
        
               | TeMPOraL wrote:
               | Encryption is _tolerated_ because it also allows
               | protecting regular people from criminals, in ways which
               | allowed to build e-commerce on top, and ultimately
               | enabling great economic boom on the Internet. If it was
               | _only_ about securing messaging, it would likely have
               | been banned already.
        
               | bawolff wrote:
               | People forget what the 90s was like (if you had to export
               | out of usa)
        
               | kemonocode wrote:
               | All those things were already illegal (worse yet,
               | immoral) whether you pay for them in fiat or in Bitcoin.
               | That's a false equivalence.
        
               | slver wrote:
               | That's the whole point. They're illegal/immoral, but
               | decentralization means you can't mitigate them despite
               | that.
               | 
               | Tell me when is the last time a drug dealer used a wire
               | transfer with reason "for the cocain"? Oh they don't do
               | that. I wonder why.
        
           | slver wrote:
           | > So it's one rule for the government and another for the
           | people.
           | 
           | Of course it is, otherwise it wouldn't be a government.
           | People get really silly with this. Governments can define
           | laws, enforce them and so on. They have many rules that apply
           | to them and not to everyone else. That's the whole point.
        
             | drclau wrote:
             | I agree with you on how governments often work. I can't
             | agree that's the whole point, though. Why would it be? I'd
             | be curious to understand why you think so.
        
               | allie1 wrote:
               | The whole point is to enforce rules that benefit the
               | whole, at the cost of individual benefit.
               | 
               | Say you have 100 rials or 1M. Converting it to BTC might
               | be good for you individually if you believe the local
               | currency is going to lose value, but it's not good for
               | the collective as there will now be less demand and more
               | supply of it. So the individual benefits at the cost of
               | the group. Stopping that is the gov's job.
               | 
               | This is a general comment, I am not familiar with Iran as
               | a country and might be missing context.
        
               | leetcrew wrote:
               | this is a really unconvincing example, at least to me.
               | despite the name, bitcoin doesn't function much like a
               | currency. that is to say, someone who would otherwise
               | hold $1mm cash would probably not want to convert that to
               | bitcoin, at least not for legal transactions. so if a
               | meaningful amount of people would rather use BTC than
               | fiat, the problem is not that people are allowed to buy
               | BTC. the problem is that the government has failed
               | spectacularly at issuing a stable currency, which is one
               | of its main jobs.
        
               | allie1 wrote:
               | It might not be a pertinent example for btc, it was just
               | used as an example.
               | 
               | The US did something similar with gold - https://en.m.wik
               | ipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act#:~:text=The....
               | 
               | The main point is, the govt has a mandate to take actions
               | that benefit the whole, even at the cost of individuals.
               | 
               | Yes it will make mistakes, and yes it sometimes will be
               | corrupt and abuse that mandate, but in those cases the
               | country can appoint a different group of people to try
               | and fix things, that's its only option that addresses the
               | problem and is not "benefiting the individual and harming
               | the whole".
        
             | sushid wrote:
             | The US also has done the exact same in the past.
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_Reserve_Act
        
           | marto1 wrote:
           | > So it's one rule for the government and another for the
           | people.
           | 
           | You cannot imprison other people, but your government sure
           | can. There are many cases where the government has special
           | jurisdiction as compared to citizens and it is clearly
           | recognized as a moral thing to have in democracies around the
           | world.
        
             | travisjungroth wrote:
             | I think this is a bit different. They're exporting
             | something that's illegal to use locally. It's like if the
             | government of a dry county was distilling liquor.
        
             | roenxi wrote:
             | There is a strong philosophical argument in favour of
             | governments following different rules from people.
             | 
             | However, in this practical case, the government is forcing
             | people to make bad choices (to use a second rate fiat
             | currency). It understands it is forcing people to make a
             | bad choice, because it doesn't want to make that choice
             | itself.
             | 
             | This is the thing I don't get about more tin-pot
             | dictatorships. It is obvious why the States force people to
             | use their first-rate fiat currency - the US benefits hugely
             | from people using the dollar.
             | 
             | It is obvious why Iran might force its citizens to use the
             | US dollar - if they didn't they probably get invaded by the
             | US on some flimsy pretext.
             | 
             | But why force people to use a local fiat currency? It just
             | makes their country poorer. Why are there all these idiots
             | who look at their own economy and think "gee, this thing
             | might work to well if we let people save in a liquid
             | asset"?
             | 
             | How do people think they are going to generate wealth if
             | not incentivising people to consume less than they produce?
             | It is the only reliable path. Why do all these governments
             | find it so scary?
        
           | viztor wrote:
           | That's kind of always the case, because using non-government
           | backed currency undermines governments control of its own
           | economy.
        
         | kyrra wrote:
         | The issue isn't that Iran is doing bad things directly, it's
         | their proxies forces. You can Google and find a source you may
         | trust more, but here's two[0][1]. Iran was taking much of the
         | money the US was paying them to not build nukes, and funneling
         | it into proxy forces to further their interests in the region.
         | You can dig deeper to understand what those proxies have been
         | doing in the region.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/irans-islamist-proxies
         | 
         | [0] https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-iraq-proxies-
         | insight...
        
           | dv_dt wrote:
           | Doesn't the US use it's money and influence to further its
           | interests? many heinous and hurtful outcomes are facilitated
           | by such funding around the world. That would include
           | overturning a democracy in Iran and putting it on a course
           | for the governance it has today.
        
             | elefanten wrote:
             | Weak comparison in scope.
        
             | seoaeu wrote:
             | So we should just be OK with that when Iran is the one
             | doing it? You can object to US foreign policy and also be
             | opposed to Iran's attempts to destabilize an entire region
             | causing immense suffering in the process
        
               | user982 wrote:
               | Iran's proxies have fought against:
               | 
               | 1) US, the illegal invader actively destabilizing the
               | region for two straight decades+.
               | 
               | 2) ISIS, the brutal Islamist neo-Caliphate birthed from
               | the destabilization brought by (1).
               | 
               | 3) KSA, currently bombing Yemeni civilian infrastructure
               | into the largest humanitarian crisis in the world using
               | weapons and support from (1).
               | 
               | 4) Israel, the apartheid nuclear ethnostate that has
               | abused a captive population for generations with the
               | support and protection of (1).
        
               | kyrra wrote:
               | US had three motives for entering the Middle East. The
               | first was originally the attack on 9/11, the second being
               | trying to maintain one friendly government (Israel), and
               | third was access to oil.
               | 
               | The problem with the first is that the US never came up
               | with a good exit strategy, so we are just kind of
               | lingering over there now. It's not even clear what our
               | objective was from the start (it's all sorta all over the
               | place). There has been an appetite to get the US out, but
               | when Obama got us out, ISIS took charge in the region and
               | Obama had to send troops back in.
               | 
               | Supporting Israel can be done through money and arm
               | sales, so you don't really need forces over there.
               | 
               | Oil has become less of an issue since the US went
               | through. Its fracking boom and generated an oil surplus.
               | 
               | It's definitely a careful balance, while many people
               | don't want to be there, if the US does not have troops
               | there, it could become a breeding ground for anti-
               | American organizations that then want to attack the US.
               | It's a hard problem.
        
               | Berobero wrote:
               | Iran has a shit regime (corollary: all countries' regimes
               | are shit, just some more than others).
               | 
               | To your question, it's a matter of emphasis. You have a
               | fundamentally greater moral imperative to criticize your
               | own government (I assume you're not Iranian living in
               | Iran) and its dealings/shortcomings simply because you
               | can, in principle, actually have some relatively
               | significant impact on its actions. So no, there is no
               | need to ignore the conduct of the Iranian government, but
               | if you place emphasis on it disproportional to what you
               | actually have influence over, your moral priorities are
               | fundamentally misplaced.
        
               | dv_dt wrote:
               | I'm not sure I would characterize Iran's efforts as
               | destabilizing the region, certainly not more than the US
               | injecting billions of dollars of arms into the region.
               | 
               | Really we're in the endgame of fossil fuels, and arguably
               | control of access to those resources that was the main
               | reason that the US was so heavily involved in that region
               | for decades. But with the green revolution needed and
               | pragmatically quite close in reach, the US needs to
               | fundamentally rethink its involvement.
        
               | dv_dt wrote:
               | A rethink along these lines would be good imho. Less
               | stick and better carrots.
               | 
               | https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2021-05-21/
               | com...
        
         | throw_this_one wrote:
         | Iran: "we will wipe Israel off the face of the earth!"
         | 
         | You: economic sanctions are immoral!
         | 
         | Lol.
        
         | eloff wrote:
         | Why are sanctions on Iran immoral?
         | 
         | Sanctions seem like the least harmful way to deal with bad
         | actors at the nation state level like Iran, North Korea, and
         | Russia. This is the equivalent of not playing with the kid who
         | can't play fair or follow the rules. Replace playing with
         | trading.
         | 
         | You might say Iran is not a bad actor, but that's not a
         | winnable position to take.
         | 
         | Would you prefer military intervention over sanctions? What
         | else can you do in these kinds of situations?
        
           | Udik wrote:
           | > This is the equivalent of not playing with the kid who
           | can't play fair or follow the rules.
           | 
           | More like the equivalent of the school bully threatening to
           | beat up any kid who plays with the kid he doesn't like.
        
             | nradov wrote:
             | Sanctions aren't violence, or even the threat of violence.
             | They're an attempt to prevent violence.
        
             | seoaeu wrote:
             | "Doesn't like" due to the real and lasting harm they've
             | caused to the entire region
        
               | Udik wrote:
               | Says the country which organised a coup in Iran to
               | install a dictator, financed another local dictator to
               | attack it, then waged war twice against him leaving a
               | country in ruins, supports and arms a religious absolute
               | monarchy and its wars, supports an apartheid regime, paid
               | jihadists in Syria to keep a civil war running...
        
           | 8note wrote:
           | I'd say Iran isn't a bad actor.
           | 
           | They're not an American client state, bit they're no worse
           | than America, China, or Saudi Arabia
           | 
           | You can argue that they're a threat to american interests and
           | an embarrassment to the American intelligence agencies, but
           | that's not exactly the same as being a bad actor.
        
             | eloff wrote:
             | That's a logical fallacy. Two wrongs don't make a right.
             | 
             | China and Saudi Arabia are pretty dirty, but I don't see
             | the US in that camp lately.
        
           | sfifs wrote:
           | You probably should read up on the history of the Shah of
           | Iran, Western oil companies, the CIA and the Islamic
           | revolution.
        
             | eloff wrote:
             | That's not an argument. But I happen to be familiar enough
             | with that history to also say your point isn't even a valid
             | one.
             | 
             | That's the two wrongs make a right logical fallacy. That
             | the US did shit to Iran does not excuse the shit Iran is
             | currently up to.
        
             | LegitShady wrote:
             | "You should read up on" is not a persuasive logical
             | argument - it's a dismissive throw away line given by
             | someone who doesn't have one.
        
           | PoignardAzur wrote:
           | Even if you grant that Iran is a bad actor (which is kind of
           | rich considering how much western countries deal with Saudi
           | Arabia)...
           | 
           | It's still _very_ fucked up that the US signed a treaty with
           | Iran saying  "we'll lift sanctions if you do X", Iran did
           | X... and the first thing the US did after the next
           | administration change was to say "Fuck the treaty we signed,
           | we're putting sanctions back".
           | 
           | What's the message being sent to Iran? "It doesn't matter if
           | you try to play nice, we're going to destroy your economy
           | unless you submit as a vassal state to the US"?
           | 
           | Also, I don't see how the US has any sort of moral legitimacy
           | to unilaterally decide which country is a "good actor" and
           | which country is a "bad actor", even against the wishes of
           | its allies (including western democraties). In a fair process
           | the US would only be one of several countries deciding
           | together, and would only act with common backing.
           | 
           | If your answer is "moral legitimacy doesn't matter, because
           | the US has the power to enforce its decisions", sure, that's
           | true. Enjoy it while it lasts.
           | 
           | But don't act surprised when other countries start banding
           | against US hegemony.
        
         | williesleg wrote:
         | I love me some smelly burka too
        
         | slfnflctd wrote:
         | > immoral
         | 
         | So, how do you feel about throwing gay people off buildings?
         | 
         | Edit: Yes, I know this isn't any part of why we have sanctions
         | against Iran. But it should be.
        
           | michael1999 wrote:
           | I dislike our alliance with Saudi Arabia. What is your point?
        
           | gokhan wrote:
           | What kind of argument is that? LGBT rights in Saudi Arabia is
           | almost equally non-existent [1] yet US happily sells them
           | arms used in a horrific war in Yemen. SA's prince can even
           | get away from blatant murder.
           | 
           | Besides, it was ISIS throwing gay people off roofs and
           | filming for propaganda. Iran has an authoritarian system with
           | it's (many many) own sins, but it's no different than any
           | other country in the Middle East. All are terrible, but some
           | receive love from the west and some don't.
           | 
           | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Saudi_Arabia
        
           | kemonocode wrote:
           | I fail to see how an economic sanction towards an
           | authoritarian regime that ends up having a greater impact
           | upon its people than on the regime itself will somehow fix
           | said regime's mistreatment of minorities.
           | 
           | I come from Venezuela, I have family in Cuba. I know what
           | economic sanctions look like and what they do against
           | dictatorships. Hint: they do nothing, because they're not
           | going to abide by your rules or meet you in the middle.
        
             | agency wrote:
             | Look also at the sanctions we imposed on Iraq after the
             | first gulf war. Conservative estimates put the death toll
             | at a quarter to half a million CHILDREN alone. I guess
             | those kids should have risen up and overthrown Saddam,
             | because that's what the sanctions were conditional on - his
             | removal from power.
        
             | slfnflctd wrote:
             | That's a very practical way of putting it, thanks.
             | 
             | This was mostly a knee-jerk reaction on my part because it
             | often seems to me that in the rush to (rightly) denounce
             | bad policies by the U.S. or other countries against Muslim
             | majority nations/groups, the fact of extremely barbaric
             | practices by some of these groups is just swept aside, like
             | it's okay because they're being victimized. It's still not
             | okay.
             | 
             | Regardless, I concede the point. I'll leave my prior
             | comment up, though, because I can't be alone in these
             | feelings and your response provides more nuance to the
             | issue.
        
               | miracle2k wrote:
               | Since you are in a conciliatory mood, you might also want
               | to reconsider the whole "throwing gays off buildings"
               | thing, because that doesn't happen in Iran. LGBT rights
               | are by no means great in Iran, but this kind of hyperbole
               | does not help anyone.
        
               | slfnflctd wrote:
               | I decided to check on this, and it would appear that it
               | was more of an ISIS thing that anti-Muslim Americans
               | falsely projected out across the entire group. However,
               | there have been at least a few hundred state-facilitated
               | executions
               | (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/LGBT_rights_in_Iran).
               | 
               | One thing I was not aware of before today is that Iran is
               | second only to Thailand in sex reassignment surgeries,
               | which I found very surprising. Apparently it may be done
               | in some cases to avoid persecution of same-sex
               | relationships, but the fact that it's not only tolerated
               | but partly paid for by the state is pretty mind blowing.
               | There's always more detail when you look closer at issues
               | like this. Thanks for prompting me to look it up.
        
               | agency wrote:
               | Do you think attitudes towards homosexuality are any more
               | progressive in Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc? No, but they're
               | "good" US client states and help further US interests in
               | the region so it's okay when they dismember a journalist
               | inside an embassy and whatever else besides.
        
           | pcbro141 wrote:
           | I don't think harming all Iranians via sanctions for the
           | actions of the regime is the right way to deal with this,
           | especially because the sanctions do nothing to stop
           | persecution of LGBT.
        
             | seoaeu wrote:
             | How else do you propose pressuring them? Launching an
             | invasion doesn't really seem like an improvement for the
             | common people there
        
           | oblio wrote:
           | I don't think that's his point.
           | 
           | The US doesn't embargo Iran because of that. Otherwise they'd
           | probably have to embargo a bunch of their closest allies for
           | half a century or more.
           | 
           | It's all realpolitik, morals don't influence this issue much.
        
         | krrrh wrote:
         | It wasn't replaced by "nothing". The information that
         | intelligence agencies are able to gather about Iran's nuclear
         | weapons programs is more detailed and accurate than what the
         | IAEI could or would gather under JCPOA. The Iranian regime
         | faces internal dissent, and western intelligence agencies
         | working with dissenters to retard the Iranian nuclear program
         | directly (see last month's cyber attack on Natal for instance)
         | may handle the threat better than the state department and the
         | UN.
        
           | sschueller wrote:
           | Like the WMD in Iraq and the smoking gun?
        
             | krrrh wrote:
             | No, I think this is different from that example. I don't
             | even know what you're trying to compare.
        
               | sschueller wrote:
               | The UN inspectors said there are no WMDs in Iraq. The US
               | intelligence agencies said the opposite and provided made
               | up proof taking the US into a quagmire of a war. In the
               | end there where no WMDs in Iraq.
               | 
               | So I am saying the US intelligence agencies are useless
               | and are used for political purposes to re-enforce what
               | ever the current administration wants to do for foreign
               | policy.
        
           | praptak wrote:
           | For me as a member of the general public it's actually
           | "nothing'. Intelligence agencies are opaque, have no
           | incentive to tell the truth and have a track record of lies.
           | 
           | An international body has at least _some_ checks and balances
           | to keep it close to the truth.
        
       | lanevorockz wrote:
       | I think the environment is way more important in terms of
       | problems with BitCoin. Evading Sanctions are way easier than
       | that. Give a couple of stacks to Hunter Biden and you are good to
       | go.
        
       | xbar wrote:
       | Comments this morning seem very aggressive-defensive. How about a
       | different takeway: cryptocurrency defeats current international
       | sanction tools.
       | 
       | Whatever your feelings about US/Iran or your feelings about
       | Bitcoin/Climate Change, sanctions have been an effective peace-
       | time tool for the UN to bring countries to the negotiating table.
       | Perfectly effective? No. Security Council politically motivated?
       | Yes.
       | 
       | Better than war for the citizens of all countries? Yes.
       | 
       | Will Bitcoin lead to more war as a result of weakening the power
       | of sanctions? I wouldn't hazard a guess. But I didn't see this
       | possibility coming.
        
         | Udik wrote:
         | > cryptocurrency defeats current international sanction tools
         | 
         | Yes, exactly. They (in part) defeat an act of unilateral
         | violence, one that is very cheap for the perpetrator, from one
         | country against another. Which seems a very good thing.
        
         | StanislavPetrov wrote:
         | >cryptocurrency defeats current international sanction tools.
         | 
         | If one values international law, or the, "international order"
         | (as Secretary of State Blinken put it, without irony), then a
         | bright line needs be drawn between, "international sanction
         | tools" that are used by the UN and the unilateral sanctions
         | issued by the US.
         | 
         | >Will Bitcoin lead to more war as a result of weakening the
         | power of sanctions?
         | 
         | Bellicose nations have always issued demands to other sovereign
         | nations backed by the threat of illegal wars of aggression.
         | Will the ability of targeted nations to avoid being starved to
         | death via the use of bitcoin lead to more war? Possibly, but is
         | the problem there really bitcoin, or rogue nations who consider
         | themselves above international law?
        
       | intricatedetail wrote:
       | Can these coins be detected and blacklisted? Pretty pointless to
       | do something like this on BTC.
        
       | variable11 wrote:
       | The elites are out in force against Bitcoin, using all the same
       | tired cliches they use for everything: "racism, Iran, Russia,
       | climate change."
        
       | gnfargbl wrote:
       | Prior to the re-imposition of US sanctions, Iran was producing
       | around 1400 million barrels of oil per year and exporting around
       | 800 [1]. The article says that Iranian Bitcoin mining is
       | currently consuming the equivalent of around 10 million barrels
       | per year.
       | 
       | At a consumption rate of ~1% of the potential exportable amount,
       | this doesn't seem like a particularly significant evasion of
       | sanctions.
       | 
       | [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-48119109
        
         | asddubs wrote:
         | political implications aside, it still seems so crazy that here
         | we're just burning 10 million barrels a year on doing nothing
         | useful at all
        
           | logicchains wrote:
           | >political implications aside, it still seems so crazy that
           | here we're just burning 10 million barrels a year on doing
           | nothing useful at all
           | 
           | The Iranian people impoverished by sanctions would beg to
           | differ (no pun intended).
        
             | asddubs wrote:
             | hence "political implications aside". this could also be
             | solved by the US lifting their unjust sanctions
        
               | lifty wrote:
               | If only we could all get along and sing Kumbaya together,
               | we could solve all the world problems. In this context of
               | human conflict and geopolitical power struggles, does
               | bitcoin make any sense to you?
        
               | asddubs wrote:
               | only as much as other means of money laundering, which
               | tend to be more energy efficient
        
           | rjzzleep wrote:
           | I remember reading somewhere a few years back that they have
           | to keep pumping it in their antiquated infrastructure
           | otherwise it causes problems to the infrastructure/wells. I
           | tried to google it but it's hard to find.
        
             | boomboomsubban wrote:
             | It isn't unique to Iran, in general stopping oil wells is a
             | risky thing. There's no guarantee it will start back up,
             | and even when stopped it can leak combustibles.
        
           | intotheabyss wrote:
           | They're securing the network and being rewarded for it. You
           | might not like it, but it's hardly 'nothing useful at all'.
        
             | BobbyJo wrote:
             | Like a security guard for a mall with no stores inside.
        
             | mabbo wrote:
             | It's a cost/benefit ratio problem. Other crypto currencies
             | can achieve the same goal for a tiny, tiny fraction of the
             | energy costs.
             | 
             | As well, what major difference would there be to the world
             | if bitcoin vanished overnight? What real-world value is it
             | providing to us?
             | 
             | I don't see the costs of bitcoin being worth the benefits.
        
             | graeme wrote:
             | What has the network produced in the real economy?
             | 
             | It's possible bitcoin may produce something someday. But
             | look at it from an outside perspective: a bunch of people,
             | motivated by an idea, have got together and commissioned
             | the burning of coal and oil on a vast scale.
             | 
             | Bitcoin more or less operates as "proof of carbon". Imagine
             | if a crypto network operated by "proof of art burned" or
             | "proof of buildings destroyed". And people got together and
             | directed capital towards buying up art and burning it, or
             | buying real estate and knocking this down.
             | 
             | And this secured their currency network. You'd have to have
             | some _very_ good output from the network to justify such
             | waste.
             | 
             | Because proof of work is proof of waste. That's how it's
             | set up and secures the network. Unlike existing systems it
             | is antiefficient. And currently it is setup to waste carbon
             | and GPUs.
        
               | matheusmoreira wrote:
               | > What has the network produced in the real economy?
               | 
               | It has lessened the impact of economic sanctions imposed
               | on a nation. I think that's direct proof of how valuable
               | cryptocurrency is. People should be free to trade without
               | some country imposing bullshit sanctions on them.
               | 
               | Someone should tell them about Monero.
        
               | thih9 wrote:
               | I don't know much about cryptocurrencies; how is monero
               | different from bitcoin in this context?
        
               | matheusmoreira wrote:
               | Monero transactions use ring signatures and are very
               | difficult to trace. Each transaction is signed by at
               | least 11 keys and there's no way to tell which key is the
               | source of the coins. The source and destination addresses
               | as well as the transaction amounts don't show up on the
               | block chain. Even if they did people can just make new
               | subaddresses to make correlation extremely difficult if
               | not impossible.
               | 
               | The US treasury tried to sanction a Monero address once.
               | They ended up sanctioning a transaction identifier.
               | 
               | https://www.treasury.gov/ofac/downloads/sdnlist.txt
               | 
               | > Digital Currency Address - XMR 5be5543ff73456ab9f2d2078
               | 87e2af87322c651ea1a873c5b25b7ffae456c320;
               | 
               | Note the lack of a 0x prefix. Here's the transaction on a
               | block explorer:
               | 
               | https://localmonero.co/blocks/search/5be5543ff73456ab9f2d
               | 207...
        
               | jazzyjackson wrote:
               | Bitcoin is a public ledger of all transactions: if I know
               | your wallet address I can see how much money is inside
               | it, and I can see how much money you've sent to other
               | wallets, what wallets you've received from etc etc
               | 
               | Monero anonymizes all this, no one can see how much money
               | is being sent where.
        
               | yao420 wrote:
               | > What has the network produced in the real economy?
               | 
               | Well according to this article it has allowed a nation
               | state to avoid international controls and restrictions.
               | Satoshi himself would be proud, it pretty much what he
               | was imagining.
        
               | herewulf wrote:
               | According to the article that accounts for 4.5% of it, so
               | the other 95.5% of it is waste.
        
           | traloid wrote:
           | useful is subjective
        
           | base698 wrote:
           | Think about the barrels burned by the tanks and planes in the
           | middle east. The proof of work for the petro dollar is the
           | military.
        
           | almost_usual wrote:
           | Something something Bitcoin solves all world problems, brings
           | world peace etc.
        
       | kwdc wrote:
       | No mention about what happens when China lets Iran purchase oil
       | using their Chia crypto. Interesting omission.
        
       | josu wrote:
       | Before reading the article, keep in mind that Elliptic makes
       | money by scaring governments: either selling their software to
       | them directly, or through regulation that is passed forcing
       | companies to hire them.
        
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       | sva_ wrote:
       | > For example, blockchain analytics solutions such as those
       | provided by Elliptic can be used by regulated financial
       | institutions to detect and block cryptoasset deposits from Iran-
       | based entities including miners. Techniques can also be employed
       | to ensure that transaction fees are not paid to miners in high
       | risk jurisdictions.
       | 
       | Interesting. It seems like they're basically saying that mined
       | blocks should be accepted based on the location of the one
       | submitting it. This whole article seems to be a sales pitch. Lets
       | see how decentralized and unregulated Bitcoin really is.
       | 
       | >This level of Bitcoin mining would currently bring in annualised
       | revenues of close to $1 billion.
       | 
       | I wondered how they came up with that number. Miners currently
       | seem to earn around $30 million per day[0]. 30*365*0.045 = ~500
       | mil. Seems like they conveniently used the highest recent rewards
       | of $60mil per day. The statement just seems sensationalist at
       | best, all things considered.
       | 
       | [0] https://bitcoinvisuals.com/chain-block-reward-day
        
         | hanniabu wrote:
         | > can be used by regulated financial institutions to detect and
         | block cryptoasset deposits
         | 
         | They're not talking about censoring/forking/manipulating the
         | chain. They're talking about centralized financial services
         | built on top of bitcoin blocking coin that is linked to Iran.
        
           | sva_ wrote:
           | Fair enough. So that's just the old concept of 'tainted
           | coins'.
        
         | viraptor wrote:
         | > It seems like they're basically saying that mined blocks
         | should be accepted based on the location of the one submitting
         | it.
         | 
         | That's silly. Mining doesn't use a lot of bandwidth, so setting
         | up a tunnel to mask the origin of the block would be trivial.
         | The moment Iran's blocked, why wouldn't miners do that?
        
         | vbezhenar wrote:
         | > Interesting. It seems like they're basically saying that
         | mined blocks should be accepted based on the location of the
         | one submitting it. This whole article seems to be a sales
         | pitch. Lets see how decentralized and unregulated Bitcoin
         | really is.
         | 
         | This implies forking the blockchain. So some clients will use
         | "curated" blockchain. I don't think that this fork will be
         | popular.
        
       | quanto wrote:
       | > The electricity being used by miners in Iran would require the
       | equivalent of approximately 10 million barrels of crude oil each
       | year to generate - around 4% of total Iranian oil exports in
       | 2020.
       | 
       | 4% of the post-sanction exports. It seems that the sanctions
       | "evasion" does not have an impact on the efficacy of the
       | sanction.
       | 
       | Instead of seeing Iranian mining boom as some tech-enabled
       | sanction workaround, I see it as just that -- a boom just because
       | electricity is cheap.
        
         | dragonelite wrote:
         | Chinese government is clamping down on their domestic miners.
         | Given how Iran and China are quiet close maybe those miners can
         | get some good energy deals. Also means the Russia, Iran and
         | China(coalition, partnership?) crypto hashing power is also
         | more decentralized.
        
       | tudorw wrote:
       | It's an advert no? "blockchain analytics solutions such as those
       | provided by Elliptic"
        
       | 74d-fe6-2c6 wrote:
       | I bet this is why Bitcoin is taking a big hit at the moment. Yes,
       | there are many good reasons for that to happen and maybe it's for
       | the better. But I would put my mouth where the money is that this
       | is the actual reason. It's probably an attack organized by
       | US/Israel against an income source of Iran.
        
       | m3kw9 wrote:
       | 10second read+summary: Iran burns oil to mine Bitcoin
        
         | timbit42 wrote:
         | How does that help them export their oil?
        
           | Udik wrote:
           | It doesn't but it allows them to export its _value_ , which
           | is the only thing everyone cares about.
        
       | slumdev wrote:
       | > Thousands of unlicensed mining farms have subsequently been
       | identified and shut down - including in mosques, which receive
       | free electricity.
       | 
       | So...if I open a mosque and mine Ethereum instead of Bitcoin, can
       | I still get some of that free electricity?
        
       | ajb wrote:
       | Reading this, it occurs to me that laundering operations seem to
       | represent a fundamental threat to bitcoin, as follows:
       | 
       | - legitimate miners should be willing to spend $1 mining to gain
       | $1+delta
       | 
       | - launderers should be willing to spend $1 (dirty) mining to get
       | $1-delta (laundered)
       | 
       | So launderers should outcompete legitimate miners.
        
         | koheripbal wrote:
         | The entire point of cryptocurrencies is to evade government.
        
         | bottled_poe wrote:
         | This is a really good point
        
         | robot_no_419 wrote:
         | You call it a "threat", but that's literally the whole point of
         | Bitcoin. It cannot be censored that easily. It's a feature, not
         | a bug.
        
           | ajb wrote:
           | Even if laundering is the whole point of bitcoin - a view I'm
           | sympathetic to - it needs to be at least semi-legitimate for
           | laundering to work. If market forces mean that the fraction
           | of miners who are launderers increases over time, then
           | eventually governments will consider it all tainted and it
           | will no longer be useful for laundering.
        
         | throwaway98797 wrote:
         | let me tell you a story about your local restaurant...
         | 
         | or laundry mat...
         | 
         | or car wash...
         | 
         | or...
        
         | b-x wrote:
         | What is your definition of "Legitimate"? Is it just what the US
         | lawmakers define as lawful? In such case, we've witnessed many
         | instances where the US imposes sanctions on various entities
         | with no relevant excuses but to oppress those who disagree with
         | it. One recent example that I can think of is when the US
         | imposed sanctions on members of the ICC [1].
         | 
         | [1] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-54003527
        
           | matthewdgreen wrote:
           | "Legitimate" in this case refers to any miner who is mining
           | honestly and is simply motivated by profits from the block
           | reward and fees. If we ignore potential price increases and
           | inefficiencies, an ideal mining market should see block
           | production costs increase until the profit margin for such
           | miners is close to zero. But miners with "ulterior motives"
           | can extract more benefit from mining, and so can mine
           | profitably even when production costs are very close to
           | rewards. This means in theory such parties are likely to
           | dominate the mining network.
           | 
           | "Ulterior motives" includes a lot of things. It definitely
           | includes money laundering (see Iran and China) but it also
           | includes people who mine so they can conduct 51% and MEV
           | attacks on the network. On the positive side it may include
           | pseudo-altruistic types such as major currency holders, who
           | are willing to mine at a loss in order to support the
           | currency's value. The thing all of these parties have in
           | common is that none of them are incentivized to mine honestly
           | solely because of the intrinsic profits involved in mining:
           | your hope is that their ulterior motive is compatible with
           | honest behavior. When that isn't born out, your network runs
           | into trouble.
           | 
           | * Obviously in the real world there are tons of capital
           | expenses and prices fluctuate wildly, so this model is loaded
           | with inefficiency that can allow some folks to make money on
           | mining as a business in and of itself. But PoS systems will
           | have fewer such inefficiencies.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | ajb wrote:
           | I'm not trying to make a moral point here. For the purposes
           | of trying to predict the outcome of the interaction of
           | governments and bitcoin, what governments consider legitimate
           | is an appropriate thing to consider. That doesn't mean I
           | agree or disagree with individual US laws.
           | 
           | [Edit: Actually matthewdgreen is right in a sibling comment,
           | that the argument can be made without considering laws as
           | such]
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | maxqin1 wrote:
         | The picture is becoming clearer. Incentive theory will cause
         | governments to put an end to at least POW blockchains per
         | launderers.
         | 
         | POS will be trickier for launderers but it won't be impossible.
        
       | nathias wrote:
       | Gosh golly, it's as if it was made to be a tool against the
       | petrodollar ...
        
         | almost_usual wrote:
         | That sheds 30% of its value when Elon Musk tweets.
        
           | [deleted]
        
       | Synaesthesia wrote:
       | What's wrong with Iran exporting oil? Why can't Iran export oil?
       | The level of economic strangulation the US can achieve over
       | countries is unprecedented. And they're often just arbitrarily
       | punishing countries.
        
         | nix23 wrote:
         | They are part of the "Axis of Evil" TM by George W. Bush
        
           | andy_ppp wrote:
           | To be fair they have kidnapped quite a few British/Iranian
           | citizens including Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe, they are
           | effectively a religious dictatorship and a majority of their
           | own people hate their government who I think have banned
           | dancing in public and have arrested people for making TikTok
           | videos, amongst more serious crimes. I'm not exactly sure the
           | Iranian government are particularly nice people.
        
             | k1m wrote:
             | This article by Nazanin's husband, Richard Ratcliffe, is
             | worth a read. The UK's role is rarely discussed:
             | 
             | "As Iran sentences Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe to a further
             | two years in Iran, her husband outlines why the UK's
             | secretive, unaccountable arms trade is a danger to British
             | citizens and why his family remains haunted by an unkept
             | promise made by the UK government."
             | 
             | https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2021-05-01-nazanins
             | -...
        
             | nix23 wrote:
             | >dictatorship and a majority
             | 
             | Brought (unwillingly) into power by the US once more:
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1953_Iranian_coup_d%27%C3%A9t
             | a...
             | 
             | >I'm not exactly sure the Iranian government are
             | particularly nice people.
             | 
             | One could say that about the CIA and the US-Government too.
        
             | GordonS wrote:
             | Keep in mind that there is a huge Western media and
             | government bias against Iran, in the US in particular.
             | 
             | I'm not saying the Iranian government doesn't do bad things
             | - it absolutely does, though you could (easily) argue that
             | the US has done far worse. Hell, you can also (again,
             | easily) argue that the US and UK are largely responsible
             | for many of the past wrongs of Iranian governments.
             | 
             | As a singular anecdote from 21 years back, I spent a couple
             | of weeks in Iran way back in 2000 (my father was working
             | there as a geologist for an oil company and I joined him
             | during the summer holidays) - things seemed _very_
             | different than I 'd been led to believe. I felt completely
             | safe wandering Tehran alone, and everyone I came across
             | seemed extremely friendly and curious. They seemed to know
             | how their country was portrayed outside of Iran, and wanted
             | to show me otherwise. People talked freely about politics
             | too, expressing likes and dislikes just like any western
             | nation. And the food, my word the food...
        
               | andy_ppp wrote:
               | They are kidnapping and executing journalists- has this
               | happened in the US or UK recently? https://www.google.co.
               | uk/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2021/01/12/op...
        
               | nix23 wrote:
               | Thinking about Guantanamo...
        
               | visarga wrote:
               | No, US keeps their "special friends" in Guantanamo,
               | keeping US soil clean. That's democracy in action and
               | respect for the constitution, unlike lesser countries.
               | 
               | When the US kidnaps people they call it "extraordinary
               | rendition" so you don't think it's just a simple
               | kidnapping + torture. It's extraordinary somehow.
               | 
               | And Guantanamo is not the only one. https://www.google.co
               | m/search?q=abu+ghraib+photos&tbm=isch
        
               | GordonS wrote:
               | It wasn't my intent to start a nationalistic or
               | whataboutism flame war. History speaks for itself.
               | 
               | My point is simply that things are absolutely not as
               | black and white as we are led to believe, and the whole
               | "axis of evil" rhetoric was ludicrous.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | robbiep wrote:
               | Don't make the mistake of confusing the position of the
               | people of a country with the position and views of a
               | government/regime.
               | 
               | Iran is a remarkable place with a highly educated
               | population. Of course they're nice and friendly and
               | curious, most people in most countries are. The Iranian
               | people aren't the enemy (re: prevailing paradigm of
               | thought from the US), it is the regime. And let's face it
               | both governments severely dislike each other, the
               | destruction of the US is literally a rallying cry of the
               | Iranian regime
        
               | Udik wrote:
               | > the destruction of the US is literally a rallying cry
               | of the Iranian regime
               | 
               | Not quite. What they chant is roughly equivalent to "down
               | with". On the other hand, the US has damaged Iran so much
               | that you can't blame them for being very angry at it.
        
             | croes wrote:
             | But why are they a religious dictatorship in the first
             | place? Khomeini was the reaction to the support of the Shah
             | by western governments. They replaced one evil with
             | another.
        
             | ljm wrote:
             | They're also a direct product of US and British
             | intervention.
             | 
             | This government didn't install itself.
        
         | koheripbal wrote:
         | It is in place because they fund terrorism.
        
           | nix23 wrote:
           | The Saudi Arabia?
        
             | koheripbal wrote:
             | This is a whataboutism. Iran's government directly funds
             | terrorism - that isn't my opinion.
        
         | tjpnz wrote:
         | This is what the US does with countries when they won't play
         | ball. Perhaps Iran should've been more grateful when they were
         | freed from the tyranny of Democracy. The US had a lovely
         | dictator picked out just for them.
        
           | pepperonipizza wrote:
           | Iran is not a democracy, candidates at the presidential
           | election in the coming weeks must be approved by a counsel.
           | The latter doesn't allow liberal candidates, and iranians
           | have lost interest in the coming election because it will
           | keep the Theocracy currently ruling in power.
           | 
           | Also, the supreme leader is at the top of Iran's power
           | structure and is not elected by the iranian population.
        
             | Dah00n wrote:
             | Yes and the US caused this system. What we see today is the
             | US being angry at a system they are to blame for.
        
             | throefvhj wrote:
             | Yes, that happened after they overthrew the US supported
             | dictator. Learn some history.
        
             | marderfarker2 wrote:
             | And how are those your (America's) problems? Why do you
             | care?
        
               | pepperonipizza wrote:
               | I am not american, and I wish iranians to have the
               | freedom to chose their government. Most of them hate the
               | islamic regime, this is a country with so much potential,
               | ruined by a Theocracy.
        
               | gherkinnn wrote:
               | Maybe if the US hadn't toppled Irans government and
               | installed a puppet in 1956, things would look
               | differently.
        
             | croes wrote:
             | The US had no problem with the Shah and have no problem
             | with Saudi Arabia, despite the war in Yemen and the murder
             | of Khashoggi. The only have a problem if they can't get the
             | oil, ask Mohammad Mosaddegh.
        
         | alert0 wrote:
         | The petrodollar depends on it. When we went off the gold
         | standard we "backed" our currency by enforcing that all oil
         | sales be done in USD. This created global demand for dollars
         | and allowed us to maintain our position as the primary reserve
         | currency.
         | 
         | I don't know the history super well but I would speculate that
         | either Iran wanted to sell oil in another currency, or the
         | other oil exporting countries we got in bed with (OPEC) didn't
         | like Iran, or another one of our allies (Israel) didn't like
         | Iran.
        
         | yyyk wrote:
         | I think that aiding in the death of a couple hundred thousand
         | Syrians, having militias in at least 4 ME states, and chanting
         | eternal hostility to US and Israel plays a role. Also putting
         | women in jail for 20 years for refusing to wear hijab is
         | unpopular.
        
           | visarga wrote:
           | Other countries did much worse to US and are still friends. I
           | think it's arbitrary.
        
             | Veen wrote:
             | It is always bizarre to me that people think of
             | international relations as a sphere in which normal
             | morality operates or should operate. The US does what it
             | thinks is in its strategic interests within the constraints
             | of its power. Iran does the same.
             | 
             | Whether one side or the other has in the past acted
             | immorally is irrelevant. You don't win the argument by
             | saying "America has done bad things too", as if that should
             | persuade it to change its behavior. It's a category error;
             | nothing but ineffectual emotive fluff. You'd have more
             | traction arguing that sanctions are, in fact, not in
             | America's long term best interests.
        
               | boomboomsubban wrote:
               | >You'd have more traction arguing that sanctions are, in
               | fact, not in America's long term best interests
               | 
               | The problem with that angle is that without caring about
               | morals, military invasion is probably better for
               | America's interests than sanction relief.
        
               | Veen wrote:
               | One would hope they'd learned from Iraq and Afghanistan
               | why military invasions aren't the strategically optimal
               | way to deal with these problems. Although that may be a
               | forlorn hope.
        
               | boomboomsubban wrote:
               | As much of a clusterfuck both of those wars were, I don't
               | think they can be shown to have been clearly bad for the
               | US long term interests. It's a hard thing to calculate,
               | and the war hawks would be more than willing to only show
               | the data saying more war is a good strategic idea.
        
               | havetocharge wrote:
               | You need the moral fluff to convince humans to risk their
               | lives in participating in the invasion.
        
               | boomboomsubban wrote:
               | There's more than enough willing mercenaries, at most the
               | moral fluff just drives the price down.
        
               | refurb wrote:
               | Indeed. A lot of people tend to have a quite naive view
               | of international relations - and I don't blame them as
               | media reporting tends to simplify things to a extreme,
               | often trying to identify who is right and who is wrong.
               | 
               | In reality, beneath the surface, is a complex web of
               | relationships and competing/aligned interests.
               | 
               | A good example is the Israel-Palestinian conflict. It may
               | seem like an Israel-Arab conflict, but many Arab
               | countries are aligning with Israel to counter the Shiite
               | threat from Iran. But those same Arab countries can't
               | abandon the Palestinian cause either. So they walk a
               | tightrope of tacitly supporting Palestine, often hollow
               | public statements about the "on-going fight for a
               | Palestinian state" all the while strategizing with Israel
               | on how to contain Iranian influence. They can't support
               | Palestine 100% because that would mean severely weakening
               | themselves with regards to Iran.
               | 
               | One can argue that's two faced and they should be ashamed
               | of partnering with the enemy of a group they support, but
               | in reality every country does it. It's about practically
               | protecting your interests. And sure you might seem like
               | you flip flop in your statements, but alliances and
               | enemies are created and disappear all the time.
        
             | havetocharge wrote:
             | What's that de Gaulle quote? "No nation has friends only
             | interests."
        
           | gherkinnn wrote:
           | I thought you were talking about the US until I got to
           | "hostility towards US [...]". Funny.
           | 
           | The US cares about the Syrian deaths about as much as they do
           | about those in Yemen. Morals play absolutely no role here.
           | And when a politician howls something about humanitarian
           | reasons you can be sure it's a farce.
           | 
           | What matters is giving head to the right person. Do that, and
           | anything is fair game.
        
             | Udik wrote:
             | > The US cares about the Syrian deaths about as much as
             | they do about those in Yemen
             | 
             | Especially since they fueled the war themselves. Regime
             | change is less risky if you can just pay people on the
             | ground to do it for you.
             | 
             | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timber_Sycamore
        
         | lasagnaphil wrote:
         | The sanctions from the US are not arbitrary, it's for a very
         | specific purpose: to force oil-exporting countries to sell
         | their oil in US dollars only. Think about when Iraq decided to
         | sell their oil in euros back in 2000, they got invaded by the
         | US and then quickly switched back to dollars.
         | 
         | The petrodollar system is why the USD was able to retain status
         | as the international reserve currency even after Bretton Woods:
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Petrodollar_recycling
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | matheusmoreira wrote:
           | > to force oil-exporting countries to sell their oil in US
           | dollars only
           | 
           | Why should the US be able to do that?
        
       | [deleted]
        
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       (page generated 2021-05-22 23:03 UTC)