[HN Gopher] Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS...
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Face masks effectively limit the probability of SARS-CoV-2
       transmission
        
       Author : paultgriffiths
       Score  : 133 points
       Date   : 2021-05-20 20:27 UTC (2 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (science.sciencemag.org)
 (TXT) w3m dump (science.sciencemag.org)
        
       | thewizardofaus wrote:
       | Have any studies been completed yet on immune system
       | efficiency/suppression after covid restrictions (masks, hand
       | sanitizer etc) ?
       | 
       | In Australia we were very lucky with the COVID situation. And
       | purely annecdotal, but I know many people who haven't been sick
       | at all during the pandemic. But as we approach winter here and
       | perhaps no longer hand sanitize appropriately, many of these
       | people are becoming "the most unwell [they] have been in years".
        
         | deepserket wrote:
         | protip: shower once a month to train your immune system during
         | lockdown
        
       | sschueller wrote:
       | N95/FFP2 seem to be very effective.
       | 
       | I wish the media and government would have spent more time in
       | educating people in things like how N95 masks work and that it
       | isn't like a coffee filter. Even thought the pores are larger
       | than a virus the masks are statically charged causes smaller
       | things to get trapped. Many people don't know this but probably
       | had an interaction with static electricity sometime in school and
       | would understand it if someone explained it. Instead people get
       | put in a bucket and no dialog is possible.
       | 
       | Education is key to understanding. You can't reach everyone most.
        
         | matz1 wrote:
         | The problem is wearing mask is annoying and uncomfortable. If I
         | have to choose, I'll choose the increased risk of covid all the
         | time rather than wearing mask.
        
           | petertodd wrote:
           | A big part of why they are annoying and uncomfortable is the
           | lack of one-way valves to make it easier to breath in them.
           | In industry, when you actually need to wear a
           | mask/respirator, they almost always have valves.
           | 
           | Unfortunately, we got stuck on the "wear masks to protect
           | others" narrative, and people who actually were at risk were
           | prevented from wearing much more effective, much more
           | comfortable, masks that would actually work well at
           | protecting them. Eg here in Canada, it's illegal to wear a
           | mask/respirator with a valve on a plane.
        
             | matz1 wrote:
             | Not only that, there is one more thing to carry when you go
             | out and impairment of social interaction because of lack of
             | facial expression.
        
             | slashdot2008 wrote:
             | I don't think it is an unfortunate narrative. two people
             | wearing masks without valves is twice the reduction in
             | likelihood that either one gives the other covid. If
             | someone does have covid the mask without the valve will
             | greatly reduce the concentration of virus particles in the
             | air around them. I think that is working as intended!
        
               | petertodd wrote:
               | Masks that aren't worn correctly tend to have very low
               | efficiencies, because the air just bypasses the mask at
               | the edges. Depends on many factors like the type, how
               | hard you are breathing, etc. But filtering just 20% of
               | the air breathed in is quite possible. And let's face it,
               | people intentionally wear them incorrectly all the time
               | because they suck to wear.
               | 
               | If you and I both have 50% filtration, that's the
               | equivalent of 75% filtration. For the person who is
               | vulnerable, that is much less effective than just wearing
               | a 95% minimum filtration valved N95 mask/respirator
               | properly.
               | 
               | It's just ridiculous that an elderly man on a flight,
               | sitting next to a healthy 15 year old more likely to be
               | killed by a flu infection(1), will be told to take off
               | his valved N95 respirator here in Canada, to protect that
               | 15 year old. I have friends who have seen this happen
               | first hand.
               | 
               | 1) https://www.cdc.gov/flu/symptoms/flu-vs-covid19.htm
        
               | makomk wrote:
               | With the typical masks available to and worn by ordinary
               | people, exhalation pressure seems to cause a lot of air
               | to bypass the mask too - except that instead of doing it
               | via a well-designed valve that redirects the airflow
               | somewhere sensible, it blows out the top and steams up
               | glasses or out the sides and towards whoever's standing
               | behind you.
        
           | neither_color wrote:
           | I'm my state we have a choice now and I still wear one most
           | places except the gym. That's where my comfort vs risk
           | threshold crosses. On that note one thing that's odd that
           | I've observed in mixed mask rooms is that I don't like
           | exposing my face to people who aren't exposing theirs. It's
           | like my smile, a sign of peace, can't be reciprocated so I'm
           | making myself vulnerable at their expense. I'll don a mask in
           | mixed mask rooms not because of conformity per se, but what
           | feels like defensiveness. My simian brain is thinking "you
           | don't know if these are friendlies." I'm looking forward to
           | any future psychological studies that explain this
           | phenomenon.
        
         | [deleted]
        
         | mhb wrote:
         | I don't think people need to know how they work. They just need
         | to know that those are what doctors wear and that they are
         | very, very effective. And much better than a mask you make from
         | ad hoc materials.
         | 
         | Once N95 masks became readily available and cheap, it was (and
         | is) mysterious why people weren't being told to wear them to
         | protect _themselves_ instead of wearing whatever was at hand to
         | sort of protect themselves and others.
        
           | auxym wrote:
           | Last I checked in Canada, N95 masks are still about 3$ a pop
           | for disposable, single use masks from industrial
           | distributors. Pre pandemic, we bought 3M 8210s for about 15
           | cents in boxes of 160. I wouldn't call the current situation
           | available and cheap.
           | 
           | Oh, and if you thought surgical masks were mildly
           | uncomfortable, N95s are an order of magnitude worst. They
           | pretty much need a perfect seal with your face and the 3Ms
           | use a really tight rubber band to achieve that. 2 bands,
           | actually.
           | 
           | I currently work on site and wear surgical masks all day,
           | it's fine. Not sure I would want to do the same if it was
           | N95s.
        
             | Louis_Sarwal wrote:
             | The discomfort is a sign that they may work.
             | 
             | Not proof--but a sign.
             | 
             | They are expensive, and I do not reccommend wearing them. I
             | do not reccommend doing anything, expecially anything that
             | has a high chance of bringing unknown costs.
        
             | mhb wrote:
             | 3M 8210s are US $26 for 20 now. $1.30 per mask seems pretty
             | reasonable to me, but I've never bought them in industrial
             | quantities so don't have that anchor.
             | 
             | I've worn N95s for hours (actually P95s which have a nicer
             | seal) and I agree that they're less comfortable than less
             | effective alternatives. But it is a bit curious that people
             | are concerned enough to be wearing their homemade mask
             | alone in a car or walking outside by themselves but are
             | unwilling to endure the slight additional discomfort of a
             | known effective mask.
        
               | DanBC wrote:
               | > a known effective mask.
               | 
               | ...if you got a real one, and not one of the less
               | effective fakes.
        
           | mulmen wrote:
           | If you tell me how something works and it fits within my
           | mental model of the world then I will trust you. I will add
           | this information to my mental model of the world.
           | 
           | If you tell me something works but can't explain how I will
           | consider if the claim is worth evaluating then attempt to
           | understand it myself before accepting it.
           | 
           | If you tell me to trust you with no explanation I will
           | immediately distrust you.
        
             | mhb wrote:
             | That's reasonable and also what I would like. But what is
             | the mental model of someone wearing their mask alone in the
             | woods or in their car?
             | 
             | So, yes, we should explain why an N95 is better than a
             | handkerchief, but it seems like there are plenty of people
             | who don't care about the details and just need to be told
             | that one is more effective.
        
               | cataflam wrote:
               | > what is the mental model of someone wearing their mask
               | alone (...) in their car?
               | 
               | It could be to set and fit their masks once before
               | leaving home, and not touching it, removing it, and
               | putting it back again during all their activities, each
               | time they come in and out of buildings/shops, etc. even
               | if it means wearing it alone in their car part of the
               | time.
        
           | DanBC wrote:
           | > Once N95 masks became readily available and cheap, it was
           | (and is) mysterious why people weren't being told to wear
           | them
           | 
           | Because they're difficult to wear. There are a _bunch_ of
           | photos on social media of HCPs who 've got bruised faces
           | after correctly wearing N95 / FPP3 for a day or two.
        
         | bitcurious wrote:
         | I'm not sure there was any popular doubt over the efficacy of
         | N95 masks. The problem was rather getting one - marketplaces
         | like Amazon restricted access to masks if you weren't
         | affiliated with a hospital. So you were left with sketchy deals
         | and weird vendor sites.
         | 
         | I suspect Amazon killed quite a few people over the last year
         | by restricting access - supply scaled pretty quickly.
        
           | Laforet wrote:
           | According to the data presented, surgical masks are still
           | highly effective even after converting the scales to linear.
           | Add social distancing on top, it is almost as good as N95.
           | 
           | And I very much doubt that N95 masks are effectively utilized
           | by the general public considering how many poorly fitted
           | masks I have seen over the past year.
           | 
           | Before the pandemic there had been several studies looking at
           | the efficacy of N95 vs. surgical masks at preventing the
           | transmission of influenza in hospitals. Most of them never
           | got anywhere because it was soon realized that even doctors
           | and nurses cannot be trusted to wear and change masks
           | properly during the daily routine. Let's hope things have
           | improved by now.
        
             | bsder wrote:
             | > And I very much doubt that N95 masks are effectively
             | utilized by the general public considering how many poorly
             | fitted masks I have seen over the past year.
             | 
             | I agree. When people can't even wear surgical masks
             | properly, there's no hope with an N95.
             | 
             | > Most of them never got anywhere because it was soon
             | realized that even doctors and nurses cannot be trusted to
             | wear and change masks properly during the daily routine.
             | Let's hope things have improved by now.
             | 
             | At the very least, everybody is washing their hands. Before
             | Covid, you couldn't even get all the doctors to do
             | something even that simple.
        
           | kickopotomus wrote:
           | Unfortunately, a few of my friends fell victim to the Qanon
           | conspiracy bandwagon and the fact that mask pore size is
           | wider than the virus was heavily circulated as a reason for
           | mask ineffectiveness.
        
             | petertodd wrote:
             | That wasn't a Quanon conspiracy: that was misunderstanding
             | that I saw plenty of mainstream doctors and other health
             | professionals promote. What it showed is that either they
             | were intentionally lying - which I kinda doubt - or that
             | they were so confident in what they had heard that they
             | never bothered to do any research for themselves. Just
             | reading the relevant wikipedia pages carefully would have
             | corrected that misunderstanding.
        
               | XorNot wrote:
               | This is your not frequent enough reminder that "doctor"
               | is not a synonym for "scientist", or more specifically
               | epidemiologist.
               | 
               | Medical doctor's are basically mechanic's for the human
               | body. The human body is complex, so this is a high bar to
               | clear and an important function, but it doesn't magically
               | grant them knowledge about concepts outside that field.
        
             | blumomo wrote:
             | Everyone is having assumptions about these observations.
             | The conclusions might not be always right, but at least the
             | observation is real. And when you observe that mask
             | mandating states don't do significantly better than mask-
             | free states, then a curious mind rightfully starts
             | pondering. No need to unterstand conspiracy theories (a
             | difficult topic) to understand that science isn't getting
             | it right yet.
        
               | cforrester wrote:
               | > And when you observe that mask mandating states don't
               | do significantly better than mask-free states, then a
               | curious mind rightfully starts pondering.
               | 
               |  _If_ this is true, which I haven 't confirmed, wouldn't
               | that say more about the effectiveness of political policy
               | rather than about masks themselves? When we have seen
               | throughout the pandemic that healthcare workers have a
               | dramatically lower rate of infection compared to the
               | general population, despite having more direct contact
               | with infected populations, it is clear to the that proper
               | precautions including protective equipment (principally
               | masks, for a respiratory disease) can impede COVID
               | transmission heavily. With that being the case, the
               | question becomes: has mask policy been effective in
               | getting enough people to wear masks properly and
               | consistently, in states where it is mandated?
        
             | Louis_Sarwal wrote:
             | Q is a symbol used by pedophiles to say that they are pedos
             | ;). Just look at "Q", and you will see what I mean. Nothing
             | complex about it.
        
           | viraptor wrote:
           | You could get halfway with other solutions. The 3-layer
           | design with the synthetic layer in the middle tries to
           | achieve the same idea. It's not going to be as effective as a
           | certified N95, but it's better than a simple cloth. Not sure
           | how common the idea was globally, but it was quite common to
           | make them in Australia.
        
           | kadoban wrote:
           | Unfortunately there is _absolutely_ popular doubt about this,
           | and every other thing you likely think is obvious about covid
           | and the world. I don't think educating people about masks is
           | really the answer though. I don't know what the answer is, or
           | if there even is one. Feel like our society is coming apart
           | at the seams.
        
           | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
           | The US seems to have relied heavily on cloth masks, even long
           | after the shortages were over. From my understanding,
           | surgical masks are much more effective (while often being
           | more comfortable) than community/cloth masks. (I don't have a
           | source for this on hand, but the German government did ban
           | cloth masks/require at least surgical masks in many areas for
           | this reason.)
           | 
           | I suspect a lot of that was out of a desire to not appear as
           | backtracking on a previous position.
        
         | Louis_Sarwal wrote:
         | We immediately face this issue: You should not act on
         | information, or even knowledge. You should act on WISDOM.
         | Wisdom is hard to gain, and yet it proves itself time after
         | time to be better than the other forms of truth. Education is
         | not the key; That would be wisdom. I do admit that most of what
         | they teach is falsehood, and it would be better if it were
         | truth.It would be better of there were no education at all than
         | what we have now. In fact, it would be better to have no
         | education system at all than to have a good education system
         | that is liable to deteriorate. This is especially true when
         | that system is a cost and a burden to and on society. Your
         | information, however, is hardly better than the "n95 is coffee
         | filter". There is no good proof on how airborne viruses are
         | transmitted! Wearing a mask may do nothing, or it may do
         | everything(Well, it can't do everything. Masks haven't stopped
         | gov't from the vaccine)! It is likely that much of the
         | transmission is not even caused by the oral and nasal areas,
         | but instead is due to fecal aerosols. Our best solution may be
         | the abolition of apartments and shared housing. SOme sort of
         | filter should be put on the toilets, not on our faces.
         | Cleansing chemicals(like bleach) should be put in the toilets,
         | not in our arms.
         | 
         | Let us remember that choices should be made carefully, with
         | consideration, and only once all of the facts are present.
         | 
         | Let us not be hasty-We must wait until a length of time has
         | past in which effects which take alonger time to present
         | themselves are presented.
         | 
         | This may require the foregoing of many necessary things. But
         | such is the cost of life. Such is necessary to avoid death, or
         | things much worse.
        
         | goatcode wrote:
         | The only time "N95" was uttered was last year, when we were
         | being told: 1. Masks aren't needed; 2. Don't buy masks,
         | healthcare workers need them.
         | 
         | It's unfortunate that we didn't go back to talking about proper
         | masks before people started knitting them and making them out
         | of rags and beads. One wonders what difference it might have
         | made.
        
         | slver wrote:
         | Bless your soul, but what I've learned from the way we handled
         | the pandemic worldwide (and are still handling it) is that
         | information that's readily available and should in theory reach
         | everyone, flows ridiculously slowly, even among specialists and
         | political figures, it's easily corrupted and distorted, and a
         | loud ignorant minority counts as much in the public discourse,
         | as the voices of millions of reasonable people.
         | 
         | I'd say we have more evolving to do. Both biologically and
         | socially. Individually (some) of us are relatively smart.
         | Together we're as dumb as a piece of wood.
        
           | ihsw wrote:
           | I can't help but look at some peoples' rejection of public
           | health guidance in the US as "not a bug/won't fix."
           | 
           | The relevant authorities (including traditional mainstream
           | media) injected politics into the public discourse, which
           | destroyed trust in what should be a normal public health
           | process. Not only that but the relevant leaders of agencies
           | decided to try manage the supply of masks through "steering"
           | the public by downplaying the usefulness of masks.
           | 
           | Distrust of untrustworthy leaders is a feature, not a bug.
        
           | simpleguitar wrote:
           | Absolutely. Considering how long it took CDC and WHO to even
           | acknowledge airborne transmission, even though the Chinese
           | were very clear about it from very early on.
           | 
           | https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/07/opinion/coronavirus-
           | airbo...
        
           | bellyfullofbac wrote:
           | Yeah, it's disappointing to see how I still see people
           | wearing their masks incorrectly, e.g. just over the mouth and
           | not covering their noses.
           | 
           | Sometimes I think human beings are advanced, but then I walk
           | into a public toilet and I see evidence how many are still no
           | better than animals. It's a simple technology, urinate into
           | the hole where the water can wash it away and we'll remain
           | hygienic, but a lot of people still fail at that.
        
         | LatteLazy wrote:
         | I get where you are coming from but something I've learned from
         | this pandemic is that "wear a mask" is too complex and
         | burdensome for a significant proportion of people in the
         | west...
        
       | boldpandabear wrote:
       | Whole study is flawed. This is theoretical math philosophy, not a
       | study. A viral particle has never been isolated outside its host,
       | therefore these authors have no idea of the viral concentration
       | in an airborne particle and are just making stuff up.
        
       | vondur wrote:
       | I don't know. We had some of the highest mask wearing percentages
       | in the country here in Southern California, yet some of the
       | highest infection rates in the world. Something isn't adding up
       | here. I'm guessing if everyone had N95 masks, we would have seen
       | lower numbers however. I don't think the average cloth masks that
       | people are wearing are very effective.
        
         | omginternets wrote:
         | Could it have to do with population density (perhaps even only
         | in certain areas)? My reasoning is that you could have high
         | transmission among the minority that doesn't wear masks, and
         | that might suffice to make the absolute case-load quite high.
        
       | brobdingnagians wrote:
       | This isn't a study; it is a mathematical model [1].
       | 
       | > Here, we develop a quantitative model of airborne virus
       | exposure that can explain these contrasting results and provide a
       | basis for quantifying the efficacy of face masks. We show that
       | mask efficacy strongly depends on airborne virus abundance. Based
       | on direct measurements of SARS-CoV-2 in air samples and
       | population-level infection probabilities, we find that the virus
       | abundance in most environments is sufficiently low for masks to
       | be effective in reducing airborne transmission.
       | 
       | Meanwhile, they ignore the dozens of studies showing masks are
       | ineffective, or even counterproductive:
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29395560/
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32590322/
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/15340662/
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/26579222/
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/31159777/
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5779801/
       | 
       | https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/19216002/
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4420971/
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2493952/pdf/ann...
       | 
       | https://www.nap.edu/catalog/25776/rapid-expert-consultation-...
       | 
       | https://www.nap.edu/read/25776/chapter/1#6
       | 
       | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/5/19-0994_article
       | 
       | https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6599448/
       | 
       | https://www.acpjournals.org/doi/10.7326/M20-1342
       | 
       | https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00392-020-01704-y
        
         | omegaworks wrote:
         | Half the articles on your list are tangential (masks make it
         | marginally harder to exercise, ok duh). The article posted
         | helps us understand why the viral concentration in the
         | environment also impacts efficacy, it helps explain why some of
         | the articles you posted see inconclusive results.
        
           | toss1 wrote:
           | And even the "masks make it marginally harder to exercise" is
           | likely wrong.
           | 
           | The winner of the 10,000m race at the 2019 USA Track & Field
           | Championships wore a mask against his pollen allergies. [1]
           | 
           | Worn properly, they just disappear. I wear N95s a work for
           | many tasks, and they are mildly distracting for a few
           | minutes, then I forget about them. Even more so now with
           | wearing them for the pandemic.
           | 
           | Yes, education about masks could be a LOT better, but using
           | that is more anti-mask FUD is borderline sociopathic.
           | 
           | [1] https://www.oregonlive.com/trackandfield/2011/06/galen_ru
           | pp_...
        
             | makomk wrote:
             | According to that article, the winner of the 10,000m race
             | wore a mask to protect against his allergies for the first
             | 4,000m, by which point it was just too uncomfortable to
             | continue wearing: "Rupp said Salazar told him to "wear it
             | as long as you can. As soon as it starts to get real hot or
             | uncomfortable, or starts to stick and get sweaty, throw it
             | off." The mask came flying off after 4,000 meters. But Rupp
             | was content to bide his time until the 9,200-mark."
        
         | jmull wrote:
         | You really hurt your credibility when the first link doesn't
         | support the argument you claim it does.
        
         | dmead wrote:
         | you really had that list ready to go...
        
         | chrischattin wrote:
         | Yeah, this right here. Masks efficacy for stopping viral
         | transmission has been heavily studied. I could post literally
         | hundreds more examples of statistically significant, RCT'd
         | science showing they have no effect on viral transmission.
         | 
         | Wearing masks has never been about the science.
        
         | oarfish wrote:
         | Interesting how some of the linked studies either contradict
         | your statement, or seem to have nothing to do with it.
        
           | brobdingnagians wrote:
           | Some are indirectly related, but all are linked in some way.
           | Like how some find that it _could_ have a positive effect and
           | postulate how, but that the studies they reviewed in the
           | meta-review didn't _show_ that.
        
         | takeda wrote:
         | The study about mask being ineffective is about cloth mask.
         | That's why the hospital masks are no longer made of cloth.
        
           | brobdingnagians wrote:
           | That is true; but a large number of people are walking around
           | with cloth masks believing that they are helpful, while that
           | study has shown them to potentially increase risk.
           | 
           | It did show "Penetration of cloth masks by particles was
           | almost 97% and medical masks 44%." So that was a positive for
           | medical masks. Though some of the other studies address how
           | those need to be used properly and not re-used.
           | 
           | The main point is that, in general, media has not done a good
           | job of transmitting studies on risk reduction; they've mainly
           | done propaganda, which can do more harm by promoting things
           | like cloth masks and not informing people about proper use of
           | medical masks.
        
         | microdrum wrote:
         | You are exactly correct, and being downvoted because of
         | religious zealotry. This is a mathematical model. Yes, face
         | coverings cover the face. It's a long (and ultimately
         | disproven) leap to: face coverings materially suppress virus in
         | a society of millions of people.
        
       | antattack wrote:
       | Results only apply to indoor environment. Maybe source control
       | could be extrapolated to outdoor conditions and close contact.
        
       | mrfusion wrote:
       | Even if this is true, I still don't think someone at high risk
       | should be trusting their life to a piece of cloth.
        
       | pmoriarty wrote:
       | _" This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of
       | the Creative Commons Attribution license, which permits
       | unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium,
       | provided the original work is properly cited."_
       | 
       | So happy to see that.
        
       | fawciwouchy wrote:
       | Fauci funded the Wuhan Lab to specifically do gain of function
       | research - FACT.
       | 
       | Fauci should be arrested.
       | 
       | Fauci should be executed.
       | 
       | Maskers are nothing but a bunch of brown shirts.
        
       | splitrocket wrote:
       | Not that this will settle anything.
       | 
       | Anecdotally, I've not gotten even a slight cold while being
       | socially distanced while consistently masked.
        
         | freeflight wrote:
         | It's not just an anecdote, it's measurable on a global scale
         | [0]
         | 
         | [0] https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-03519-3
        
         | neither_color wrote:
         | Anecdotally I haven't had a cold in years. I work out 4 days a
         | week and while I wouldn't call it a strict diet I have an upper
         | limit calorie "budget" that I never exceed. While it's
         | certainly possible that masks helped some people avoid all
         | airborne transmissions last year, lots of people were also able
         | to exercise more and make better food choices without the rush
         | of breakfast and lunch commutes.
        
           | XorNot wrote:
           | I made absolutely no changes 1 year, but because my workspace
           | at work was in an alcove next to an air conditioning vent
           | that pulled air from the outside, I completely dodged the
           | office cold because I basically had my own positive pressure
           | environment.
           | 
           | It's more likely your lifestyle is simply keeping you away
           | from people and places that experience high levels of foot
           | traffic.
        
           | poutine wrote:
           | Get kids. They are plague carriers.
        
         | michaelhah wrote:
         | Well, that may be due to other people social distancing enough
         | to keep the level of colds down. It might have nothing to do
         | with masks.
        
         | bryanrasmussen wrote:
         | anecdotally, I have very little social contact normally anyway,
         | I've worked from home since before winter, and always wear
         | masks in closed public spaces - have had 3-4 colds in that
         | time.
         | 
         | I do have kids though.
        
           | jackfoxy wrote:
           | Anecdotally, since taking vitamin D3 supplements I haven't
           | been getting colds. Added daily nutritional zinc supplements
           | in 2020 as soon as they were available after I heard the
           | anecdotal evidence D & zinc are effective in Covid
           | prevention. Throughout winter and early spring last year you
           | couldn't get zinc supplements for love or money.
           | 
           | A lot of anecdotes there :).
           | 
           | The American medical establishment has a long history of not
           | getting behind nutritional disease prevention. Some of it is
           | for good reason, but I think there is also a systemic bias.
        
           | space_ghost wrote:
           | My frequency of colds has increased 10x since I've gotten
           | married and had kids.
        
         | goatcode wrote:
         | >got a cold
         | 
         | That's because the cold virus is spread by surfaces, and you
         | likely touched something with it, then scratched your eyes. You
         | can be 80 miles from someone, but if you touch something he
         | touched, you're potentially getting his cold.
        
         | andrew_ wrote:
         | My 2yo would like to sneeze on you and flip that anecdote on
         | its head.
        
           | MrDunham wrote:
           | Parent of a 1.5 year old here. Can confirm - several colds.
           | 
           | To the parent comment's point though, I haven't had any colds
           | in the last year where my daughter wasn't sick first
        
             | poutine wrote:
             | They seem to have perpetual runny noses when they're really
             | young.
        
           | awb wrote:
           | Years ago my entire family got sick and I was determined not
           | to contract it through distancing and frequent hand washing
           | and sanitizing. It worked until I bent down to tie my
           | toddler's shoes only to look up and mid-sentence have him
           | cough directly into my open mouth. All it takes is one
           | mistake. Needless to say I got sick shortly after.
        
             | Marsymars wrote:
             | A few years ago I went on vacation for a week with a half-
             | dozen friends in an Airbnb and spent the entire time
             | miserably sick with some kind of respiratory illness. I was
             | similarly determined not to get anyone else sick (and I was
             | sick from the start, so avoided any asymptomatic period). I
             | was fastidious about distancing and sanitizing, and any
             | time I needed to cough I'd step outside of the house.
             | Nobody else got sick. Is the sample size here large enough
             | to determine anything? No idea, but I like the anecdote.
        
             | samatman wrote:
             | I wonder what the result would have been if you immediately
             | gargled with vodka.
             | 
             | I've used that successfully in the past to chase colds out
             | of the throat before they get into my nose and lungs.
        
         | jMyles wrote:
         | It's more plausible, at least in my view, that this is the
         | result of suppression of several endemic respiratory pathogens
         | by viral interference (something that has been observed in
         | previous pandemics).
         | 
         | https://medium.com/illumination-curated/the-unexpected-case-...
        
       | tryonenow wrote:
       | >Surgical masks with particle collection efficiencies around ~50%
       | cannot prevent the release of millions of particles per person
       | and their inhalation by others (green dots in Fig. 1, B and D).
       | In other words, the human-emitted respiratory particle number is
       | so high that we cannot avoid inhaling particles generated by
       | another person even when wearing a surgical mask
       | 
       | So the entire premise of the modeling in the paper rests on the
       | assumption that surgical masks can filter some percentage of
       | viral particles. It's my understanding that viral particles are
       | around 3 orders of magnitude smaller than the pores in surgical
       | masks. So is there any evidence that surgical masks can filter
       | aerosolized viral particles?
        
         | cr1895 wrote:
         | Here's a nice interactive graphic showing how masks block
         | particles:
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/30/science/wear-...
        
           | neither_color wrote:
           | That's a very cool visualization and I wish I'd seen it
           | before. I am curious though as to what makes some viruses
           | have higher R values than others. These masks more
           | effectively stopped influenza and I still don't understand
           | why.
        
         | noname120 wrote:
         | Viral particles are concentrated in droplets and aerosols,
         | which are significantly blocked by surgical masks.
        
         | splitrocket wrote:
         | Virus particles do not travel naked in the air, instead they
         | are colloidally suspended in liquid, both droplets and
         | aerosols.
         | 
         | So, if your filter catches the droplets and aerosols, which are
         | much larger in size than the actual virus, the filter works.
        
           | abfan1127 wrote:
           | assuming: 1) 100% capture of air flow 2) no fatigue (ie
           | capture is same at t=0, and t=later)
           | 
           | anyone with glasses will tell you 1 isn't a very good
           | assumption. As masks saturate in moisture, back pressure
           | causes (1) to be more false.
        
           | takeda wrote:
           | Realization that somebody's droplets are getting into your
           | mouth and nose makes one want to wear mask even after
           | pandemic is over :)
        
             | viraptor wrote:
             | You may want to check how much of your body weight is
             | bacterial and how easy it is to exchange samples with
             | others. Just own the things that make us human.
        
             | cimi_ wrote:
             | You're of course free to do whatever you think makes sense,
             | but please don't expect other people to follow. The world
             | is full of risks, but everything is a tradeoff - it's
             | really bad if we start thinking random people are a danger
             | to us.
             | 
             | And for what it's worth, I'm not anti-mask in the context
             | of the pandemic - I've been wearing masks indoors since the
             | whole thing started and I'll continue to do this until most
             | people around me are vaccinated, for their sake.
        
           | neilwilson wrote:
           | Except that field data shows they don't because they are not
           | used precisely as required - which means the filter doesn't
           | work effectively if at all and then it becomes infectious
           | waste that isn't treated and disposed of correctly.
           | 
           | Human system effects dominate - as the field data shows. It's
           | like HCQ - works in a lab, not in the real world.
           | 
           | Might be useful in tightly controlled medical settings with
           | adequate filtered ventilation. But there's no hard evidence
           | beyond that at this stage.
           | 
           | Feynman's rule still applies.
        
         | blumomo wrote:
         | Science is based a lot on assumptions and beliefs. A scientist
         | who _does not_ consciously say: ,,We have observed that...
         | which makes us believe that..." still ultimately becomes a
         | victim of his unconsciously formed belief system, a pseudo-
         | religion.
         | 
         | I'm a software engineer, I work scientifically, but I don't own
         | the truth. I own the thought process which works on top of
         | assumptions. But I don't want my own work to feel like magic,
         | and to avoid that, I observe and try to understand it. But at
         | the end of the day I have to say: ,,I _assume_ that my program
         | is bug free because I have observed many test runs in which the
         | program behaved correctly. I _belief_ it will work well at the
         | customer.
         | 
         | Same has to be said for above study. Otherwise we wouldn't find
         | studies which even claim the opposite. These other studies are
         | just based on different assumptions and belief systems.
        
       | AstralStorm wrote:
       | As suspected, it's exactly a probability game. If there's few
       | infectious particles sure to low concentrations (e.g. people
       | distance or are outdoors), you would roll the 70% penetration
       | chance fewer times, and result in very few particles reaching
       | deeper into lungs too as the velocities are reduced.
       | 
       | When very close to an active particle source, you'd roll the
       | conditional probability dice many more times.
       | 
       | The critical number is the base infectivity or viability. (CFU
       | essentially) It is expected that sub-viable numbers might even
       | work as a kind of vaccination if people isolate long enough.
       | (stay at home for prolonged time without contact - scale of days
       | at least)
        
         | nradov wrote:
         | There is no evidence that inoculation with sub-viable numbers
         | of virions works at all as a kind of vaccination. It's an
         | interesting hypothesis but no one has done the human challenge
         | trials necessary to test it.
        
         | epivosism wrote:
         | Yes. Crazy how hard it has been for people to get this:
         | 
         | Imagine a bulletproof vest with three larger-than-bullet-sized
         | holes in it. Say you know someone is going to shoot ten bullets
         | at you - would you not wear the vest because "the attack vector
         | can fit through the pores"?
         | 
         | The point is people treat this as a binary 'safe' / 'not safe'
         | switch, when actually risk is related to the distribution of
         | exposure to dosage.
        
       | fawciwouchy wrote:
       | Fake science.
       | 
       | Fake news.
       | 
       | Burn your mask!
        
       | joshuaengler wrote:
       | The VAST majority of mask wearing I have seen in California has
       | been average cloth-covers. I have only seen a handful of people
       | out of thousands actually wearing N95 masks, so perhaps N95 is
       | highly effective at stopping viruses, but I see basically nobody
       | wearing that. Stores, offices, buildings, all are completely fine
       | with you wearing a bandana over your face. There is effectively
       | no point in even mandating mask laws unless you actually mandate
       | the TYPE of mask that must be used. The coffee filters people are
       | wearing over their face will do close to nothing, if not even
       | make everything worse for their own personal health (lung issues,
       | bacterial infections, etc.)
        
         | jonas21 wrote:
         | I've never seen anyone wearing a coffee filter over their face.
         | What are you talking about?
        
         | omginternets wrote:
         | >The coffee filters people are wearing over their face will do
         | close to nothing
         | 
         | I'm not an expert, but I believe this is not quite accurate. As
         | I understand it, even a piece of cloth helps prevent the spread
         | of the virus to _others_. The mechanism is that the virus exits
         | your nose /mouth in the form of macroscopic droplets that later
         | break down into microscopic droplets a few inches from your
         | face. A bandanna will catch the big droplets before they split
         | apart.
        
         | jayd16 wrote:
         | Is there some global increase in lung issues (besides covid) or
         | bacterial infections or something?
        
       | anonymousiam wrote:
       | Here's the manufacturer's (3M) label:
       | 
       | WARNING: This respirator helps protect against certain
       | particulate contaminants but does not eliminate exposure to or
       | the risk of contracting any disease or infection. Misuse may
       | result in sickness or death. For proper use, see supervisor, or
       | User Instructions.
       | 
       | https://multimedia.3m.com/mws/media/1837275O/3m-9132-healthc...
        
       | ekianjo wrote:
       | So one can make a model out of thin air and not validate it, and
       | then write a paper about it claiming to have the holy grail?
       | That's Science in 2021?
        
       | fawciwouchy wrote:
       | The only reason the CDC decided to provide "guidance" on lifting
       | mask use indoors was because there is now sufficient evidence to
       | not just prove the fact that it did indeed come from the Wuhan
       | lab but Fauci and the NIH FUNDED IT.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
       | This entire study seems to be centered around a theoretical,
       | mathematical model, and I didn't see any attempt to actually
       | validate that model.
       | 
       | Basically, the authors seem to assume that the virus behaves
       | according to their formulas, and show that under their
       | assumptions, face masks work, but don't actually prove that their
       | assumptions match reality - or did I miss something?
        
         | FiReaNG3L wrote:
         | No you didn't miss anything - most people upvoting this didn't
         | read anything more than the title.
        
           | Louis_Sarwal wrote:
           | So true.
        
         | neolog wrote:
         | The paper is fine, the title is clickbait.
        
         | omegaworks wrote:
         | It invites rigor in studying mask efficacy. Some studies out
         | there show inconclusive results of mask usage, and this article
         | helps give us an explanation as to why we might be seeing that.
         | The model shows that in an extremely virus-rich environment
         | masking can be rendered ineffective, but in virus-poor
         | environments, even surgical masks decrease the probability of
         | infection.
         | 
         | Researchers need to measure concentration of virus in the
         | environment as well as mask usage to show the efficacy of masks
         | in real world situations.
        
         | rsj_hn wrote:
         | Indeed this is the money paragraph:
         | 
         | "The effectiveness of masks, however, is still under debate.
         | Compared to N95/FFP2 respirators which have very low particle
         | penetration rates (around ~5%), surgical and similar masks
         | exhibit higher and more variable penetration rates (around
         | ~30-70%) (2, 3). Given the large number of particles emitted
         | upon respiration and especially upon sneezing or coughing (4),
         | the number of respiratory particles that may penetrate masks is
         | substantial, which is one of the main reasons leading to doubts
         | about their efficacy in preventing infections. _Moreover,
         | randomized clinical trials show inconsistent or inconclusive
         | results, with some studies reporting only a marginal benefit or
         | no effect of mask use (5, 6)_. Thus, surgical and similar masks
         | are often considered to be ineffective. On the other hand,
         | _observational data show that regions or facilities with a
         | higher percentage of the population wearing masks have better
         | control of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (7-9)_. So
         | how to explain these contrasting results and apparent
         | inconsistencies?
         | 
         | Here, we develop a quantitative model of airborne virus
         | exposure that can explain these contrasting results and provide
         | a basis for quantifying the efficacy of face masks. "
         | 
         | So they are left with a conundrum that _places_ which use
         | surgical masks seem to be better off, whereas _randomized
         | control studies_ of surgical masks show little to no benefit.
         | This is what they try to explain with a mathematical model.
        
           | function_seven wrote:
           | > _On the other hand, "observational data show that regions
           | or facilities with a higher percentage of the population
           | wearing masks have better control of the coronavirus disease
           | 2019 (COVID-19) (7-9)." So how to explain these contrasting
           | results and apparent inconsistencies?_
           | 
           | My hypothesis regarding surgical mask prevalence and how it
           | correlates with better virus control:
           | 
           | People who wear masks--however effective they may be--also
           | behave in other ways to limit the spread. They minimize time
           | spent in public indoor spaces, they keep distance from other
           | people, they're more likely to self-quarantine if a family
           | member is sick, etc.
           | 
           | The mask-wearing prevalence is a proxy for how serious the
           | wearer takes Covid as a threat.
        
           | wrycoder wrote:
           | I suspect that in locations with a higher prevalence of
           | masking the population is generally more vigilant: more hand
           | washing, more social distance, stay at home when ill, avoid
           | obviously ill people, and so on. May be a case of
           | correlation, not causation.
           | 
           | It would be interesting to have a trial where everyone was
           | wearing N95s, but we're not likely to see that.
        
           | BugsJustFindMe wrote:
           | The mistake that many people make, and that I think you're
           | implicitly making here too, is this notion of "controlled
           | study". If the study denies the result seen time and again in
           | real life, perhaps the study isn't studying correctly.
        
         | admissionsguy wrote:
         | Working down from the conclusion to find the necessary
         | assumptions is the standard approach to COVID-related
         | questions.
        
         | Louis_Sarwal wrote:
         | Probably not. Most things like this are like this. There may
         | indeed be some underlying proof, but they either can't or won't
         | show it to you-if it exists. It is more likely that it does
         | not. They start with their conclusion. They rarely commence an
         | empirical study, because that might prove their prepared
         | conclusion wrong! A model, which can be used in place of
         | reality, is not reality, and never will be. GIGO. The model was
         | tailored to match their wanted results, or more likely they
         | made a bad model and tweaked it to gain desired results. This
         | does not mean that masks are bad-it just means that the methods
         | used are generally false. Properly gained empirical evidence
         | should be used, and it even should not be trusted if it points
         | to you doing something stupid-like wearing a tissue on your
         | face all day.
        
       | stretchwithme wrote:
       | If high resolution video is to be believed, masks reduce how many
       | particles get into the air when we cough, sneeze or talk.
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2azcn7MqOU
        
       | microdrum wrote:
       | A science study that only shows, as this one does, that face
       | coverings cover the face is not very useful. The public policy
       | piece is much more complex. High masking states did NOT do better
       | on COVID than low masking states.
        
         | tgsovlerkhgsel wrote:
         | By what metric? By deaths per capita, my impression was the low
         | masking states did worse, but I didn't rigorously check the
         | data.
        
       | truthwhisperer wrote:
       | waste of time. we should not promote face mask
        
       | tester756 wrote:
       | Aren't masks mostly/also about decreasing the area of the air
       | that you pull in (closer to you, or in other words the distance
       | from which you pull is smaller)?
       | 
       | like take a piece of paper in front of your face and breath with
       | mask and without
        
         | AlexCoventry wrote:
         | No. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Tp0zB904Mc
        
         | cr1895 wrote:
         | Masks work by trapping particles exhaled or inhaled.
        
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       (page generated 2021-05-20 23:00 UTC)