[HN Gopher] Forced Entrepreneurs
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Forced Entrepreneurs
        
       Author : yarapavan
       Score  : 116 points
       Date   : 2021-05-18 14:15 UTC (8 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (papers.ssrn.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (papers.ssrn.com)
        
       | starkd wrote:
       | Maybe forced entrepreneurs are also more eager to accept venture
       | capitol or buyout offers earlier than voluntary entrepreneurs.
        
       | thiago_fm wrote:
       | That's why FED should stop the money printing press and let the
       | chips fall where they may.
       | 
       | I've been for a long time waiting for that crisis to pop up and I
       | go back to my community to try something new, not as an employee
       | but as an employer.
       | 
       | Many other software devs shared common concerns with me, like
       | that it isn't worth to drop the ball now that salaries are sky
       | high.
       | 
       | I think a recession would definitely annoy people, but like when
       | it rains, it would clean up a lot of things. Too many zombie
       | companies going on, big tech getting so much money as it seems
       | the only thing that will stick around post-crisis.
       | 
       | We need to shed the tears before there is progress. Can't keep
       | holding this thing on forever.
        
         | Taylor_OD wrote:
         | > I think a recession would definitely annoy people, but like
         | when it rains, it would clean up a lot of things. Too many
         | zombie companies going on, big tech getting so much money as it
         | seems the only thing that will stick around post-crisis.
         | 
         | Annoy people is a funny way to describe poverty.
        
           | marcosdumay wrote:
           | You are assuming that printed money benefit the poor.
           | 
           | This is possible in theory, but it does really look like it's
           | not happening on the US.
        
           | thiago_fm wrote:
           | Poverty can only be really fixed by tackling poverty. In a
           | country where discussing universal healthcare and basic needs
           | coverage is a considered extreme leftist ideas. I am not
           | impressed that people are worried about recession and the
           | life of the poor.
           | 
           | Sure, in a recession, Elon Musk might get poorer, but it
           | isn't the same kind of poverty that affects the poor.
           | 
           | If US wants to tackle it properly, first solve the initial
           | issues. It is possible to have a recession where poor people
           | aren't the ones most affected, it's all a matter of approving
           | policies, laws and really looking after the poor.
           | 
           | A recession where some rich people that took more risk than
           | they should and get punished isn't bad. What is bad is
           | workers depending so much on their employers to survive.
           | Well, in the US that would get tagged as communism.
           | 
           | Best regards from Germany.
        
             | burlesona wrote:
             | This is a poor characterization of the issues in the US.
             | 
             | (a) We have universal healthcare for those without income:
             | Medicaid.
             | 
             | (b) We have universal healthcare for those over 65:
             | Medicare.
             | 
             | (c) _Discussing_ healthcare reform is not considered  "far
             | left," there is significant debate about how to do this and
             | how to pay for it across the spectrum. So far relatively
             | left politicians have gotten the most airtime about this,
             | but it is discussed broadly.
             | 
             | Your note reads as snarky and condescending, and then you
             | signed it "Best regards from Germany," which just confirms
             | this is a drive-by European comment.
             | 
             | When it comes to countries that aren't your own, my
             | recommendation would be to ask questions and seek to
             | understand rather than to casually cast judgment.
             | 
             | As a final note, please consider that the US is not
             | analogous to Germany. California is analogous to Germany.
             | The US is analogous to the EU. From my reading of
             | international news, it appears that it's more difficult to
             | work out things at the EU-level than it is at the level of
             | an individual nation. That's useful to keep in mind when
             | attempting to make comparisons between the two regions.
        
               | VonGallifrey wrote:
               | > please consider that the US is not analogous to
               | Germany. California is analogous to Germany.
               | 
               | That statement is not true at all.
               | 
               | I give you that California has about half of Germanys
               | population, but it is not a country. California is a
               | State. Germany is a country and the membership in a
               | political union like the EU does not make it a state.
        
               | burlesona wrote:
               | The population is not a match, but States in the US are
               | by design far more autonomous than "provinces" in other
               | countries. When the original 13 states formed the US they
               | thought of it much in the same terms that member states
               | of the EU think of themselves today - not an identical
               | arrangement, but very similar in spirit.
               | 
               | California (and the other US States) have their own labor
               | laws, their own environmental standards, their own
               | transportation and energy departments, their own distinct
               | safety net programs, even their own militaries! (aka the
               | "national" guard)!
               | 
               | Further, the Federal Government is specifically limited
               | via the 10th Amendment to _only those powers which are
               | enumerated to it._ By default, legal power is held by the
               | _states,_ not the federal government. This is very
               | unusual.
               | 
               | Every "country" has a different mix of systems and
               | different degrees of local autonomy, but US States are at
               | the very high end of local authority while the federal
               | government is at the low end. Thus, comparing some
               | European nation to the US Federal Government is often
               | misleading as it implies that the US federal government
               | even has the power to do things that a European nation
               | can do, which is frequently not the case, or else is
               | greatly complicated by needing state participation and
               | approval.
        
               | VonGallifrey wrote:
               | Germany is a Federal Republic and so is the USA. Germany
               | has states as well.
               | 
               | I grant you that they are different forms of federal
               | republic, but the point that California is not a country
               | stays the same.
               | 
               | I don't care what kind of power the federal government of
               | the United States has or doesn't have. That is a problem
               | for the US to figure out for themselves.
               | 
               | I don't think that when people compare European nations
               | to the US that they are speaking about the US federal
               | government specifically or imply anything about the power
               | of the US federal government. What is more likely is that
               | they are asking why the people of the USA have not
               | archived what people of other countries take for granted.
               | The fact that this would have to be archived via state or
               | federal government is a detail at best.
        
               | burlesona wrote:
               | If you want to enact political change then the legal
               | structure of the government is most definitely not a
               | "detail at best." Consider gun rights, for example. Due
               | to the Second Amendment, every level of the US government
               | is greatly limited in its ability to enact gun control.
               | To change this requires not a mere majority vote in
               | congress, nor even a supermajority in the senate, but a
               | constitutional amendment which much clear both houses of
               | congress AND be ratified by 3/4 of the states!
               | 
               | These details matter, and they are important specifically
               | when talking about public policy matters and trying to
               | advocate for change.
               | 
               | Back to my original point, there is nothing stopping any
               | US state from adopting universal healthcare, but it's not
               | clear if the federal government even could if it wanted
               | to (see Medicare expansion and how many states have
               | chosen not to opt in!). Thus if you want to make
               | comparisons to the "things that Europeans take for
               | granted," it is often more productive to look at what
               | individual US states do and can do, rather than obsess
               | over the federal government. Trivializing that is just a
               | road to getting _nothing_ done.
        
               | heavyset_go wrote:
               | > _(a) We have universal healthcare for those without
               | income: Medicaid._
               | 
               | There are tens of millions of people who are eligible for
               | Medicaid under the ACA, but they live in states that
               | never expanded Medicaid under the ACA so they can't sign
               | up for it.
               | 
               | Also, if someone makes more than $12k to $17k a year as
               | an individual in a state that expanded Medicaid, they're
               | no longer eligible for Medicaid.
        
               | burlesona wrote:
               | Yes, which is why I only claimed that we do have care for
               | people _without income._ re: states not opting in, I
               | couldn't agree more, hence my emphasis on State-level
               | action being more important than federal when discussing
               | US domestic policies.
        
               | andrewjl wrote:
               | > (a) We have universal healthcare for those without
               | income: Medicaid.
               | 
               | > (b) We have universal healthcare for those over 65:
               | Medicare.
               | 
               | In varying ways, both of these programs have large gaps
               | and do not achieve "universal" coverage for the groups
               | they claim to be for.
               | 
               | For instance, when it comes to Medicaid, there is a lack
               | of actual, physical access to care facilities for those
               | without transportation options or a lack of ability to
               | take sick time at work. Many rural areas have severe
               | doctor shortages. There are many others.
               | 
               | > (c) Discussing healthcare reform is not considered "far
               | left," there is significant debate about how to do this
               | and how to pay for it across the spectrum. So far
               | relatively left politicians have gotten the most airtime
               | about this, but it is discussed broadly.
               | 
               | US pays more than most European countries do for
               | healthcare on almost any comparable measure, per-capita,
               | adjusted for life expectancy / outcomes, and many others.
               | Switching to a multi-payer system with basically a
               | variant of a public option, ironically similar to what
               | Germany and a few other European countries have, seems
               | like a pragmatic short-term choice. Unfortunately this
               | isn't a popular solution on either side of the aisle.
        
             | hogFeast wrote:
             | Germany...a country with one of the highest levels of
             | wealth inequality in the world (roughly equal to the US).
             | With median net household wealth below Greece, and one of
             | the highest proportion of billionaires in the world.
             | Endemic corporate corruption, low competition, non-existent
             | regulation, weak unions...people in glass houses.
             | 
             | Also, the US has one of the largest public healthcare
             | systems in the world. Comparisons are slightly complicated
             | but, as a % of GDP, it is roughly the same size as Germany
             | (on a tax base a fraction of the size). The only nation in
             | Europe that actually has a larger public health sector than
             | the US is Sweden.
             | 
             | Work is the only way to lift people out of poverty. Germany
             | is a self-evident example of this: the economy revolves
             | around large corporations who are heavily protected by
             | competition from govt. I would bet on the competitive
             | American model that can renew itself every time over the
             | corporatist model that protects wealthy industrialists in
             | exchange for meagre handouts to the poors. The US tax
             | system is a great example of the potential of
             | redistribution (particularly, property taxes...an area of
             | notable weakness in Germany).
        
             | selfhoster11 wrote:
             | I wish you didn't get voted down so much. From a
             | Eurocentric perspective, your words make perfect sense.
        
         | PragmaticPulp wrote:
         | > I've been for a long time waiting for that crisis to pop up
         | and I go back to my community to try something new, not as an
         | employee but as an employer.
         | 
         | If anything, the current environment makes it more attractive
         | to start a company, not less. Investment money is cheap and
         | plentiful. Businesses and customers have plenty of money to
         | spend on your products. Risk tolerance is high, so customers
         | are less afraid to take a chance on your unproven business.
         | 
         | And if all else fails, you can walk right back into a hot job
         | market and pick up where you left off.
         | 
         | All of those traits are reversed in an economic crisis. The
         | idea that a crisis spurs people to take entrepreneurial risk or
         | fosters entrepreneurial success is backwards. Now is just about
         | the optimal time to start a software business, if there ever
         | was one.
        
         | [deleted]
        
       | adabyron wrote:
       | Unless you work for a great company as a software engineer, you
       | can make/keep significantly more money as your own company.
       | 
       | The past few years have punished W-2 wages even more when
       | compared to non-W-2 earners or people who partial incomes from
       | W-2.
       | 
       | PPP Loans, SEP-IRAs, QBI deduction, plus plenty of other random
       | deductions as well that are no where near the sketchy deductions
       | that certain people take such as hair/makeup.
       | 
       | Like many things, this doesn't apply only to software engineers
       | but any job that you can easily contract out or do plenty of
       | remote work.
       | 
       | The current US tax structure encourages entrepreneurship. At the
       | same time it seems to make it slightly scary/challenging with
       | tons of ridiculous paper work, especially if you move across
       | state lines. Oh & paying taxes is a pain. If someone wanted a
       | huge unicorn type business idea, making it super easy to handle
       | all this garbage would be nice. Most places are either to
       | expensive for a single or tiny business, or don't offer enough
       | help. Huge opportunity with an expanding niche & no one is doing
       | it really well.
        
         | mdorazio wrote:
         | Be careful with this advice since it does not apply generally
         | or all the time for most people. Being self-employed _can_ have
         | a significant financial upside, but it also has significant
         | costs and risks. I switched to 1099 work several years ago and
         | in comparison to what I could be bringing home in _total_
         | compensation with a big tech company, I make anywhere from 0.75
         | to 1.5 times as much. The situation is similar for friends who
         | made the same switch - some years it 's substantially better,
         | some years it's worse, on average you trade different kinds of
         | stress for a little bit more money.
         | 
         | It's important to keep in mind that running a business, even
         | one where you're the only employee, is a pain in the ass in
         | America (and especially in California). In addition to all the
         | compensation things you _don 't_ get through an employer
         | (health insurance, 401k matching, subsidized meals, paid
         | vacation days, etc.) you also have added overhead in self
         | employment tax, professional insurance, compliance/service
         | fees, etc. And then you have the added headache of a small
         | mountain of paperwork, both to get started and at tax time
         | every year, in addition to having to keep your accounting
         | straight and sometimes having to chase down payments. Also keep
         | in mind that the line items you listed have caveats. QBI phases
         | out at certain income levels and for certain professions (I get
         | $0 from it), PPP is a one-time deal, IRAs are not equivalent to
         | getting free matching money from an employer 401k, etc.
         | 
         | As others in here have mentioned, you also have to maintain
         | your client pipeline and even then there's no guarantee things
         | will work out. For example, last year when the pandemic started
         | my primary client paid the early termination fee, cut my
         | contract 4 months short, and left me to twiddle my thumbs while
         | my W2 friends happily plugged away at their normal jobs with no
         | income interruption. That's the kind of risk you take and over
         | time it absolutely will impact your total earnings. In general,
         | self-employment is most definitely not for everyone - I usually
         | only recommend it for a limited subset of people.
        
         | burlesona wrote:
         | Having now started / run 3 different small businesses in the US
         | in 3 different states, I would say the paperwork and tax
         | compliance is the second biggest headache of doing business
         | here. Sales tax is especially annoying. But the #1 biggest
         | headache is providing healthcare (not mandatory for small
         | businesses, but you need it if you want to be able to hire
         | anyone).
         | 
         | I would love to see significant reform to simplify taxation for
         | small businesses, but more than that I would love for the US to
         | have a simple, high quality universal healthcare program so
         | that I didn't need to worry about healthcare provision as part
         | of my company.
        
         | xwdv wrote:
         | > Unless you work for a great company as a software engineer,
         | you can make/keep significantly more money as your own company.
         | 
         | This comes at the expense of time and energy. Running a
         | "company" will involve a lot of other things beyond software
         | engineering. Like stocks, there's also no guarantee you will
         | beat the market (the market being the best salary you can get).
         | 
         | The most time and energy efficient way to make money with
         | little risk is still to take a standard software engineering
         | job, don't take on unnecessary responsibilities, and just work
         | remote to eliminate commute (you don't get paid for commute
         | time but because you still have to do it you have to account
         | for it as part of your work hours, which can vastly reduce your
         | true hourly rate).
        
           | adabyron wrote:
           | If you have one or two solid long term clients, the running a
           | company is minimal once you're setup. You pay yourself a
           | salary, do a few quarterly state tax items & a monthly
           | payment to the IRS.
           | 
           | It's usually the initial setup that is the biggest pain & if
           | you ever make any changes like wanting to move states or
           | addresses. This is where I think a service would be really
           | beneficial. At the same time, the amount of time/revenue lost
           | to this is less than the amount gained by tax benefits. I
           | mean every company made 5 months of salary plus benefits per
           | employee from the PPP loan over the past 2 years. That alone
           | was huge.
           | 
           | From personal experience, it sounds like "the best salary you
           | can get" requires hunting for decent opportunities, studying
           | for tons of ridiculous interview questions, networking with
           | employees at the company to get a leg up & of course taking a
           | ton of interviews. Plenty of time/energy goes into that as
           | well. Of course you can counter argue that getting clients
           | takes plenty of time energy. So it maybe comes down to each
           | person's own unique situation and which opportunity is best
           | for them. I've found that doing great work, gets your name
           | out there & marketing is not required. Learning to say "no"
           | to jobs tends to be required more than marketing.
        
             | varispeed wrote:
             | > If you have one or two solid long term clients, the
             | running a company is minimal once you're setup.
             | 
             | In many countries, big consultancies lobby governments to
             | treat such business as disguised employment. Here in the UK
             | from this year, you may likely be caught by these new rules
             | and have to pay employer and employee tax on the entire
             | revenue - which essentially means you pay more tax than an
             | employee, you don't have any employment rights and you
             | still have business running costs that you cannot claim any
             | tax relief from.
        
             | xwdv wrote:
             | Don't forget health insurance and errors & omissions
             | insurance.
             | 
             | Finding clients takes about the same effort as preparing
             | for job interviews except you have to constantly be looking
             | for clients.
             | 
             | It's not easy finding and managing multiple long term
             | clients, and even then you need about 3 or 4 to ensure one
             | doesn't hold too much leverage over you.
             | 
             | In the end, it's a wash, if starting a company was two or
             | three times better than a salaried job it might be worth
             | it, but as it stands it's barely 1.2x better than a
             | salaried job.
             | 
             | If you want more money it's best to just do a salaried full
             | time job and then do some work occasionally on the side or
             | develop other passive income streams.
        
           | hokumguru wrote:
           | Sure but, anecdotally, the only people I know who have "beat
           | the market" are either healthcare professionals or small
           | business owners. The successful entrepreneur has a much, much
           | higher ceiling than almost every other occupation. Sure, a
           | cushy software job will be reliable and probably be very
           | lucrative but those do have an eventual cap that doesn't
           | exist when self-employed.
        
       | vmception wrote:
       | > firms founded by forced entrepreneurs are more likely to
       | survive, innovate, and receive venture-backing
       | 
       | Actually this result surprises me.
       | 
       | The survivorship bias I was expecting was that upper middle class
       | and upper class people got opportunities to try ideas over and
       | over again because their funding never ran dry. And therefore we
       | get to hear misleading stories about entrepreneurs starting from
       | their garage, but turns out the garage was at a home in Atherton,
       | the most expensive zip code deep in Silicon Valley.
        
       | michaelt wrote:
       | _> Posted: 29 Jun 2016 Last revised: 11 May 2021_
       | 
       | It's a few years since I've been in academia, but is it normal
       | these days for papers to receive five years of updates? Or to be
       | five years old and still "forthcoming"?
        
         | zhdc1 wrote:
         | I don't know what happened in this particular case, but it's
         | fairly common for articles in higher ranked business journals
         | to spend several years in the working draft -> revision ->
         | acceptance pipeline.
        
           | Cyril_HN wrote:
           | Why do business journals work that way?
        
       | varispeed wrote:
       | These days you are unable to climb the class ladder as an
       | employee. Any income that you could have saved is being eaten by
       | progressive tax (that is being used to subsidise low wages among
       | other things - big corporations avoid paying tax and pay low
       | wages that other workers have to bump out of their pay). Only way
       | to escape working class and poverty is starting a business. This
       | also is becoming more difficult as big corporation lobby for more
       | regulation and for increase of barriers to entry for new players.
       | Big corporations need smart people as wage slaves, not as
       | competitors. This is something that is not being looked enough
       | into, mainly because politicians have no incentive to do it. It
       | is easier for them to accept donations from rich friends and
       | source votes by promising more social programs and more subsidies
       | for target voter salaries.
        
       | dumbfoundded wrote:
       | A big factor in entrepreneurship that is undervalued is
       | desperation. When you have a cushy tech job to fall back on, you
       | simply won't try as hard as when you have no safety net. Right
       | now it feels like it's okay to fail and you're only really
       | risking the opportunity cost of a higher salary. "Forced
       | entrepreneurs" risk great personal consequences because they have
       | no other options. I'm not sure if this is a good or bad thing for
       | society.
        
         | cpp_frog wrote:
         | In Spanish there is a saying that goes: A hungry man thinks
         | more a hundred intellectuals.
        
         | mettamage wrote:
         | It can lead to chronic stress. Chronic stress can kill in the
         | worst case. I think Elon Musk is a good public example of what
         | (chronic) stress can do despite being financially successful.
        
           | DelightOne wrote:
           | Sure it's stress, but it also gives you control, gives you
           | the tools and people you need to deal with it. In a job you
           | don't necessarily have those.
        
           | dumbfoundded wrote:
           | It's definitely way more stressful but it's a balance. I
           | think having too little stress can be just as unhealthy as
           | too much stress. Some amount of stress is necessary to feel
           | engaged and important in the activities you work on. You can
           | work at a big company and feel completely unnecessary to the
           | world. As a founder, finding the balance is extremely
           | difficult but a very rewarding journey if you can sustain it.
           | There's a certain zen about finding peace and focus in a
           | chaotic situation.
        
           | bigbillheck wrote:
           | Musk might have a lot of chronic, but it's not stress.
        
             | [deleted]
        
         | crooked-v wrote:
         | > When you have a cushy tech job to fall back on, you simply
         | won't try as hard as when you have no safety net.
         | 
         | Or you don't try entrepreneurship _at all_ , because if you
         | fail you don't have anything to fall back on.
        
         | Taylor_OD wrote:
         | A lot lot lot of start up founders have some type of exit (life
         | changing but not retiring type money) then go work as an
         | engineer at FANG+. It's always interesting talking to them
         | because most of the time they thought about leaving during
         | their time running the start up but stuck around for one reason
         | or another. Sometimes because they didnt have time to interview
         | elsewhere.
        
           | dumbfoundded wrote:
           | As a bootstrapped founder who went through such an exit, but
           | not planning on going back to a big tech company, I had
           | temptations of going back for at least a couple years. My
           | primary motivation was the fear of suffering personal
           | consequences for completely running of our money. Now that
           | I've exited and have plenty of time to start the next thing,
           | I can't ever see myself going back to a big company. There's
           | something addicting about entrepreneurship.
           | 
           | To me, it just feels so much more real than working at a big
           | company. At a big company, I felt like I just tried to make
           | my boss happy and I had a very limited toolset to do such. As
           | an entrepreneur, it's very connected to delivering value to
           | other people who won't give you the time of day if you don't.
           | It's difficult to explain but it feels way more real than a
           | job.
        
             | granshaw wrote:
             | Amen. Plus the high of getting a new sale or getting good
             | direct feedback from your customers
             | 
             | Also love how customers don't give a ** about who you are,
             | just how good your product is. Very different from typical
             | employment where there's a constant undercurrent of
             | posturing and your person/personality is always front and
             | center to your performance, as much as people don't wanna
             | admit it
        
         | PragmaticPulp wrote:
         | > "Forced entrepreneurs" risk great personal consequences
         | because they have no other options.
         | 
         | Anyone capable of starting a tech company has the skills and
         | motivation required to get a reasonably well paying tech job.
         | 
         | And that's more or less what most of them do when their
         | startups fail. I see a lot of resumes from people listing
         | themselves as CEO or CTO of a tech startup that barely
         | registers in a Google search.
         | 
         | I know at least one recruiter who makes a habit of calling up
         | people at Crunchbase companies with <10 employees and letting
         | them know to reach out if they're ever thinking about going
         | back to the job market. Turns out, a lot of them are ready to
         | go back to regular jobs after realizing that startup life isn't
         | as glamorous as it sounds.
        
           | icedchai wrote:
           | They may have the skills, but not the attitude. I've met
           | several entrepreneurs who simply can't work for someone else
           | due to their own personality traits.
        
             | PragmaticPulp wrote:
             | In practice it's rare that someone simultaneously can't
             | work for someone else yet can work for some combination of
             | customers, investors, and employees. Running a business is
             | rarely about working in isolation, taking orders from no
             | one, and letting the money roll in.
        
             | granshaw wrote:
             | Very true. I dunno what OP is on about saying they're
             | interchangeable.
             | 
             | In a similar boat now after having had a taste of
             | entrepreneurship but running out of runway. I used to be a
             | model tech worker but now being back at a regular job just
             | seems so... pointless, even though it pays well
             | 
             | Strategizing and executing at the business level is so much
             | more fun than back and forth discussion about how to best
             | fit something into a large existing codebase and making
             | sure your PRs are small enough... but it's hard to get
             | employment doing that kind of work with a SW engineer's
             | resume
        
           | jbay808 wrote:
           | That might be less true outside of the US.
        
           | sdevonoes wrote:
           | Not everyone works in tech. I know some "forced
           | entrepreneurs" that failed big. They were "forced" in the
           | sense that the country in which they were living was just not
           | able to provide them a decent job.
        
           | krono wrote:
           | Back then when, lacking formal education in this field, I was
           | unable to get anything better than unpaid traineeships. Since
           | I needed income those were no viable option, plus I was
           | demonstratively far beyond that skill level and felt I was
           | being taken advantage of to an unfair degree.
           | 
           | If I wanted to stay in this field, my only option was to
           | start my own business which I ended up doing. Things worked
           | out quite well.
           | 
           | > Anyone capable of starting a tech company has the skills
           | and motivation required to get a reasonably well paying tech
           | job.
           | 
           | I find that way too simplistic and too blankety even for a
           | blanket statement.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | > Anyone capable of starting a tech company has the skills
           | and motivation required to get a reasonably well paying tech
           | job.
           | 
           | I say that's mostly true, provided they're authorized to work
           | in the US and move there.
        
         | sombremesa wrote:
         | I'd expect that the people the article talks about did have
         | other options since they were "high earners".
         | 
         | > we confirm labor shocks disproportionately impact high-
         | earners and these same workers start more successful firms
        
           | dumbfoundded wrote:
           | I think the term "forced" implies to me that the other
           | options were worse at least. High earners can become low
           | earners very quickly like real estate agents in 2008. These
           | people have a larger bank roll and wider network then
           | suddenly find themselves without a way to sustain their
           | existing lifestyle. Similarly, the dot com bust gave many
           | previously high paid programmers a lot of free time and few
           | options to maintain their income.
        
           | awb wrote:
           | I was a reasonably paid developer / manager in 2008 and
           | couldn't find a job as hiring was frozen. Unemployment wasn't
           | going to cover the mortgage so I was in a sense forced into
           | entrepreneurship despite being a previously attractive hire
           | for multiple companies.
           | 
           | I had to work 2x as hard to make the same salary on my own
           | the first year, but after that the rewards became easier as
           | the company grew.
           | 
           | I doubt I would have had the courage or interest in leaving a
           | comfortable salaried position for entrepreneurship if I
           | wasn't forced into it. Turned out to be a life changing lay
           | off for me though in a good way.
        
             | sombremesa wrote:
             | The issue is that GP points to this as a significant
             | factor:
             | 
             | > "Forced entrepreneurs" risk great personal consequences
             | because they have no other options.
             | 
             | This is just ground reality for many entrepreneurs
             | (immigrant families opening new restaurants, for example)
             | and does not serve as much of a differentiating factor.
             | Based on the study in the OP, the differentiating factor is
             | more likely to be some difference in risk tolerance by way
             | of savings (since these were high earners after all), some
             | difference in skill (since these were high earners after
             | all), or some difference in opinion of self (since these
             | were high earners after all) which kept them from giving up
             | and just taking a minimum wage unskilled labor gig
             | somewhere.
             | 
             | It's not interesting that people turned to entrepreneurship
             | after being laid off. It's interesting that people who were
             | laid off from cushier jobs were able to start businesses
             | more successfully.
        
         | rapind wrote:
         | If you're a _desperate_ entrepreneur in B2B, just a heads up
         | that there are a lot of predators out there trying to cheat you
         | into cheap /free work. It's like a special kind of land shark
         | that can smell your desperation.
         | 
         | The willingness to walk away is a game changer in sales (and
         | other things in life).
        
         | shoto_io wrote:
         | Absolutely. I was a well paid manager in a travel company. Then
         | Covid hit... In hindsight I am glad I got the chance to become
         | an entrepreneur. I am not sure if I would have had the guts to
         | make the jump without the f:ing pandemic.
        
         | jressey wrote:
         | When Covid hit, I quit my cushy job to create a video game. It
         | was awesome, and given the time and resources I am confident it
         | would have sold a few thousand copies.
         | 
         | But c'mon, I quit my job to get away from working for a living
         | for a year. I put in 4-6 hours a day in earnest, but it was
         | pretty obvious from the beginning that I wasn't gonna finish
         | and coding the game was just an opportunity to be more creative
         | than I am as a manager.
         | 
         | No way would I have ever entertained this idea without knowing
         | I could walk back in to a high-paid job a month after starting
         | to look, which I did.
        
         | afarrell wrote:
         | > they have no other options
         | 
         | This isn't really true and should not motivate us to value
         | desperation. Survivorship bias prevents us from hearing the
         | voices of those who chose the final solution to desperation.
        
           | awb wrote:
           | If you're taking about suicide, we do have statistics to tell
           | part of that story.
        
             | TrinaryWorksToo wrote:
             | And it's way too high. Perhaps we shouldn't innovate at all
             | costs. Perhaps it's okay to slow innovation if more people
             | live.
        
               | cle wrote:
               | Or perhaps the person "burning the midnight oil" will
               | come up with an innovation that will save even more
               | lives, and which is only possible by a single person
               | putting in the mental effort.
               | 
               | I don't have a strong opinion on this issue, IMO it's too
               | complicated and subjective to feel confident in any
               | particular stance. There's no question in my mind that
               | entrepreneurs taking larger personal risks are more
               | motivated to make things work, but whether that
               | translates to a net positive or not? Who knows?
        
               | afarrell wrote:
               | People also stay up late to see the stars.
               | 
               | Where we see desperation in a company history, we should
               | look again to check if it is actually relentlessly
               | resourceful curiosity.
        
               | cle wrote:
               | You are presenting a false dichotomy, it can and often is
               | degrees of both.
        
           | xphos wrote:
           | I think the OP is just making an observation not a value
           | statement consider his last bit is he doesn't know whether or
           | not its a good thing. I also think this kinda doesn't follow
           | because during down turns higher ups also commit suicide at
           | much higher rates because they are likely to fall from much
           | higher up. If you are already poor continuing to be poor
           | while terrible isn't really a change in your perceived state
        
             | dumbfoundded wrote:
             | Yeah, I was trying to make more of an observation as
             | opposed to a value judgement. I do think it's important to
             | recognize the role of desperation because it's a powerful
             | but negative motivator. It's really a mixed bag. Kind of
             | like how are biggest scientific achievements have all been
             | funded by the military in an attempt to more efficiently
             | kill each other. I'm not sure what the balance should be.
        
               | afarrell wrote:
               | I think we should ask which particular humans are
               | desperate and which are curious.
               | 
               | Thousands of scientists and engineers would not have been
               | motivated to work on ballistic rocketry and guidance
               | systems if they had not been curious to learn about the
               | moon and outer space.
               | 
               | Congress would never have spent 4% of the 1966 US federal
               | budget on the Apollo program[1] if it had not been
               | desperate to tell allies and enemies about our ability to
               | land a payload in Leningrad.
               | 
               | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apollo_program#
        
               | dumbfoundded wrote:
               | It seems like the desperation is the more powerful
               | motivator but carries significant side effects. I wonder
               | if it's possible to motivate people in meaningful ways
               | with only carrot and no stick.
               | 
               | NASA inspired millions of children in the 60s and 70s to
               | go into science yet real progress in space technology
               | seems to have only picked up recently. Similarly with
               | nuclear technology, it took 12 years to get from nukes
               | could exist to 15KT yields to 50MT yields but we still
               | don't have fusion and fission reactor designs haven't
               | changed that much in decades despite significant
               | problems.
               | 
               | Sometimes I feel like people are change adverse and won't
               | just change things to improve them. People only really
               | change things when there's a significant threat of them
               | getting worse. Reality is surely more complicated and
               | nuanced but I think it will mark a significant change in
               | our evolution when we improve things because we know they
               | can be better instead of racing to avoid a disaster.
        
               | afarrell wrote:
               | > when we improve things because we know they can be
               | better instead of racing to avoid a disaster.
               | 
               | I'd encourage you to read the Wikipedia article on
               | Taylorism and then to read The Toyota Way and/or
               | Leadership is Language.
        
             | afarrell wrote:
             | Ah, I may have misinterpreted the word "undervalued" as a
             | value statement.
        
               | dumbfoundded wrote:
               | Fair enough. Maybe I should've used "underestimated".
        
         | whall6 wrote:
         | They've burnt their ships so to speak
        
         | Stevvo wrote:
         | As somewhat of a forced entrepreneur myself, I disagree. Didn't
         | finish high-school and have never held down a job for more than
         | a few months, but don't feel at risk of 'great personal
         | consequences'. If the market changes and my current ventures go
         | to shit, I will just develop a new product much like an
         | employed person would find a new job.
        
           | dumbfoundded wrote:
           | I think the difference is the paper focuses on previously
           | high income earners. When people earn a high income, they
           | tend to get mortgages, dependencies, and expensive habits.
           | When you have all of that, it's tough to take it away without
           | it feeling like a great loss.
        
       | MattGaiser wrote:
       | Anecdotally, what happened to the entrepreneurs in your networks
       | when this thing hit? In my network, most of them seem to have
       | used the skilled remote work boom to get regular jobs until this
       | has all passed.
        
       | varispeed wrote:
       | It's interesting that "venture backing" is considered as
       | something normal, a success even. Being approved by your rich
       | overlords. Workers have to pay huge tax, whereas corporations
       | don't. So workers are less able to amass capital and because of
       | that they are forced to share their business with VC. If you were
       | a rich VC owner, surely you would lobby politicians to ensure
       | entrepreneurs are dependent on you. I think this is sickening.
       | Corporate feudalism?
        
         | rmac wrote:
         | vc's job: find and invest in companies that will make large
         | amounts of money. if they are good at their jobs, these
         | companies will make them large amounts of money and in so doing
         | employ a large pool of workers.
         | 
         | if what I just wrote is true, then I can see how others might
         | use vc-backed companies as a proxy for broad economic gains
        
           | hogFeast wrote:
           | Some people view any trade where the other side wins to any
           | degree as exploitative. Regardless of whether they gain
           | themselves. It is an interesting thought pattern.
        
           | cratermoon wrote:
           | > and in so doing employ a large pool of workers.
           | 
           | Uber and DoorDash have entered the chat...
        
         | bsedlm wrote:
         | yes but the "lord" is a publically traded corporation.
        
         | solumos wrote:
         | This is a pretty zero-sum way to look at
         | VC/investment/startups. In reality, GPs have to hustle to get
         | LPs to invest in their fund. Then, they're able to take that
         | money and create a portfolio out of it by investing in big
         | opportunities. They really only want to invest in businesses
         | that can exceed a $1B valuation (sometimes $10B these days).
         | The very best VCs have a track record of identifying $1B+
         | opportunities and helping those companies get there.
         | 
         | As a founder, if your business doesn't fit that mold you
         | probably shouldn't raise from VCs. There are angels out there
         | with a higher risk tolerance who write fewer checks and are
         | more interested in contributing directly to a company's success
         | outside of capital.
         | 
         | The idea that workers are diluted by the VCs is usually bogus.
         | In an upside scenario, everyone wins. In a neutral exit
         | scenario, the employees get to keep their wages, the investors
         | get their money paid out first (if there's any left) and the
         | founders/employees get hosed. In a downside scenario, everyone
         | loses, except employees still get to keep their wages earned.
         | 
         | It seems like you're conflating wage workers vs VC vs founder.
         | Each of these roles has a wildly different risk profile when it
         | comes to a startup.
        
       | doggodaddo78 wrote:
       | Yuuup. Nothing like being homeless, hungry, and broke to focus
       | the mind into "hunger," unlike Ivy Leaguers' dabbling into
       | staplers as a service or Juicero.
        
       | jtdev wrote:
       | This report seems to reinforce a notion that I've had for quite
       | some time: The latest tech entrepreneur hype cycle is churning
       | out very enthusiastic, hopeful/jr. entrepreneurs who have nearly
       | nothing to offer in terms of vision, product, service, technical
       | ability, etc.
       | 
       | Being an "entrepreneur" is a means to and end, not and end in and
       | of itself.
        
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