[HN Gopher] Midair Collision over Denver
       ___________________________________________________________________
        
       Midair Collision over Denver
        
       Author : lunchbreak
       Score  : 381 points
       Date   : 2021-05-13 05:10 UTC (17 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (avherald.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (avherald.com)
        
       | na85 wrote:
       | I was camping near Whistler a few years ago and heard a bang.
       | Looked up and saw falling debris and bodies. A wing landed not
       | far from our campsite. Turns out a glider (low-wing monoplane)
       | was descending and the tow plane (high wing monoplane) was
       | climbing. They were each in each other's blind spots :(
       | 
       | Glad to see no fatalities here; I'm an aerospace engineer in the
       | field of airworthiness and technical risk management so my work
       | sees a lot of accident reports and flight safety incidents. I can
       | say with certainty these folks (esp. the metroliner crew) are
       | very fortunate.
        
         | upofadown wrote:
         | Probably this:
         | 
         | * https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-
         | columbia/pemberton-b-...
         | 
         | Whenever there is a collision involving light aircraft the
         | question of anti-collision systems comes up. Unfortunately the
         | powers that be have completely failed to come up with a
         | workable standard for such aircraft. The glider people
         | eventually just gave up on waiting and now use a proprietary
         | system called FLARM which has fairly good adoption. There is
         | more than one system of that type available for light powered
         | aircraft with not very good adoption. Each system is entirely
         | incompatible with each other, including the standardized ones
         | used in heavy commercial aviation.
        
           | na85 wrote:
           | Yeah that's the one. I misremembered it as the tow plane
           | instead of a Cessna.
        
         | azalemeth wrote:
         | I'm sorry to hear that you witness a mid-air collision -- I
         | hope it wasn't completely fatal. In the UK, all glider pilots
         | wear parachutes and the overwhelming majority have standardised
         | on a collision avoidance system known as FLARM that is "glider
         | friendly" (unlike GNSS) and can differentiate thermalling from
         | colliding.
         | 
         | It's just an internal 16 channel GPS receiver with an external
         | antenna and an altimeter that predicts the flight path and then
         | transmits it - including a unique identifier - as low-power
         | digital burst signals at one-second intervals. Other aircraft
         | also equipped with FLARM receive that, compare it with their
         | own flight path prediction, and also check for collision
         | information with known data on obstacles, including electric
         | power lines, radio masts and cable cars, etc. If a proximity
         | warning is generated to one or more aircraft or obstacles, it
         | bleeps like anything and generates bright LEDs that point in
         | the direction of the threat. The display also gives indication
         | of the threat level, plus the horizontal and vertical bearing
         | to the threat -- and there are three warnings (iirc ~30s, ~15s,
         | ~6s) -- it warns by time and not distance.
         | 
         | I remember the thing going off a few times; it's quite helpful
         | and draws your attention to a region of sky immediately,
         | including behind, above and below you. It's also dirt cheap+
         | and is a battery-powered self-contained box with (I suspect) a
         | microcontroller and glorified smartphone innards inside.
         | 
         | +(by aviation standards)
        
       | 0xFFFE wrote:
       | Comms between tower and the planes involved.
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5tb2dVWJqc
        
       | MobileVet wrote:
       | Wow, the 'can opener' effect is intense. Insane that the plane
       | held together, so much structural loss.
       | 
       | Reminds me of the Aloha Flight 243. My mom's cousin was the pilot
       | and hearing his first hand account was pretty crazy. Fun fact, he
       | got to be an extra in the made for TV movie of the event.
       | 
       | https://www.thisdayinaviation.com/tag/robert-l-schornstheime...
        
       | zed88 wrote:
       | Metroliner, often jokingly called as "flying sewer pipe" is one
       | hell of a sturdy plane it seems. Glad to see both parties okay,
       | but this makes me think if BRS should be made standard by FAA on
       | GA planes given the lives saved by the technology so far.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | onion2k wrote:
       | I find it slightly incredible that two planes ever hit each other
       | given the size of planes compared to the volume of space they fly
       | in. I understand that it's simple probability (small planes, big
       | volume, but _lots_ of flights) but it 's still amazing that it
       | happens at all.
        
         | DonHopkins wrote:
         | "Big Sky Theory"
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Big_sky_theory
         | 
         | >In aviation, the Big Sky Theory is that two randomly flying
         | bodies are very unlikely to collide, as the three-dimensional
         | space is so large relative to the bodies. Some aviation safety
         | rules involving altimetry and navigation standards are based on
         | this concept. It does not apply when aircraft are flying along
         | specific narrow routes, such as an airport traffic pattern or
         | jet airway.
         | 
         | >The Big Sky Theory has been mathematically modeled, using a
         | gas law approach. This implies that collisions of aircraft in
         | free flight should be extremely rare in en-route airspace,
         | whereas operational errors such as violations of formal
         | separation standards should be relatively common. Three
         | critical parameters are the number of flying objects per unit
         | volume, their speed, and their size. Larger, faster objects,
         | flying in a traffic-rich environment are more collision-prone.
         | 
         | http://code7700.com/big_sky_theory.htm
         | 
         | >It seems that there are a lot of pilots out there that believe
         | in the "Big Sky Technique." They think the amount of airspace
         | out there is so wide and vast, and that they are so small, that
         | the chances of hitting another aircraft is too small to worry
         | about. And yet history begs to differ.
         | 
         | The Big Sky - Kate Bush
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sV7w5TaYjRA&ab_channel=KateB...
         | They look down         At the ground         Missing
         | But I never go in now              I'm looking at the big sky
         | I'm looking at the big sky now         I'm looking at the big
         | sky         You never understood me         You never really
         | tried
         | 
         | Big Sky - Lou Reed
         | 
         | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ug_Z-gu7u44&ab_channel=Naoyo...
         | Big sky, big sky holding up the sun         Big sky, big sky
         | holding up the moon         Big sky holding down the sea
         | But it can't hold us down anymore              Big sky holding
         | up the stars         Big sky holding Venus and Mars         Big
         | sky catch you in a jar         But it can't hold us down
         | anymore              Big sky, big enormous place         Big
         | wind blow all over the place         Big storm wrecking havoc
         | and waste         But it can't hold us down anymore
        
           | upofadown wrote:
           | The problem is that the theory mostly works. "See and avoid"
           | ends up mostly depending on the good odds a lot of the time.
           | Except when it doesn't as in this case.
        
         | coldtea wrote:
         | > _I find it slightly incredible that two planes ever hit each
         | other given the size of planes compared to the volume of space
         | they fly in._
         | 
         | The space can be constrained though. There are "airways" (jet
         | routes) for flights, and not that much of a volume/size ratio
         | when the volume concerns areas near airports -- where many
         | planes approach, exit, are asked to circle in a holding
         | pattern, etc.
         | 
         | So it's not like the whole sky is their domain...
        
         | freetime2 wrote:
         | Less incredible in this case since it was two planes landing on
         | parallel runways at the same time.
        
         | rkangel wrote:
         | In free flight, two aircraft can be anywhere in 3D space and
         | collisions are rare.
         | 
         | Around takeoff and landing - there is effectively a 1D track
         | for the approach and the climb-out. It's not quite that simple
         | because different aircraft will have different descent profiles
         | and different angles to the wind, but it's a much smaller
         | 'search space' for collisions.
        
         | t0mas88 wrote:
         | The probability is much higher in terminal airspace because all
         | planes are going to or coming from the airport so they are on
         | converging paths by definition.
         | 
         | And better GNSS based navigation equipment is now making it
         | more likely than 20 years ago. The historical accuracy was such
         | that planes where often a bit offset left or right off the
         | route giving extra separation. Now the accuracy is so good that
         | planes going opposite direction on the same route are passing
         | exactly bang in the middle on top/below each other.
        
           | KuiN wrote:
           | The ability for planes to follow these highly accurate common
           | flight paths was a contributing factor in the Gol flight 1907
           | mid-air collision in Brazil [0]. (That, plus ATC clearing the
           | two planes at the same altitude _and_ both having TCAS
           | (Traffic Collision Avoidance System) switched off). William
           | Langewiesche published a great long-form article about the
           | disaster called "The Devil at 37,0000ft" that's well worth
           | reading if that's your sort of thing [1].
           | 
           | [0]
           | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gol_Linhas_Aereas_Flight_1907
           | 
           | [1]
           | https://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2009/01/air_crash200901
        
             | randompwd wrote:
             | That vanity fair article was a good read but I felt it
             | continually excused the American pilots ineptitude but
             | happily pilloried the Brazilian air traffic controllers.
        
           | mnw21cam wrote:
           | Planes going opposite directions on the same route are meant
           | to be at different altitudes. Altimeters have been quite
           | accurate for a long time.
        
             | t0mas88 wrote:
             | 1000ft separation isn't much when you have an issue, if you
             | loose an engine at cruise altitude you typically cannot
             | maintain that altitude for example.
             | 
             | Oceanic procedure, without radar control, is to turn 45
             | degrees off track while descending, but it takes a little
             | bit of time to set all that in motion when things go wrong
             | while you were just seconds before happily cruising
             | straight ahead on autopilot (autopilot is mandatory above
             | 29,000 ft in a lot of airspace)
        
           | throwawaygimp wrote:
           | Yea, this is a really good point that isn't well known.
           | 
           | We've improved GNSS significantly, but the technology to
           | avoid collisions hasn't been widely deployed, even though
           | it's orders of magnitude less complicated than high accuracy
           | GNSS on the whole
           | 
           | So... a random dilution of precision generator could... save
           | lives? ha.
        
             | t0mas88 wrote:
             | It's not uncommon in uncontrolled airspace to set a 1 or 2
             | Nm offset to the right in the FMS. Then it will follow the
             | high accuracy path but not the same as opposite traffic
             | that's 1000ft above or below.
        
       | cmckn wrote:
       | I've spent a decent amount of time at Centennial; it's one of the
       | busiest general aviation airports in the country. There's a great
       | restaurant on site that you can watch the runways from. After
       | this incident, the restaurant is probably as close as I'd get to
       | a Cirrus. :)
        
         | dillondoyle wrote:
         | It's really close to the city too.
         | 
         | I'm sure the chances of a collision outside of the airport is
         | absolutely basically zero, but these small planes fly really
         | low over my house and the downtown area all the time. They get
         | pretty low and close for touring over the big buildings for
         | photos and stuff, see photos on reddit all the time..
        
         | toast0 wrote:
         | I don't see how this incident would make or break your
         | impression of the Cirrus.
         | 
         | From the picture, the plane at rest is pretty messed up, but
         | all occupants are safe, and pending investigation, there
         | doesn't seem to be a sign of mechanical error involved.
         | 
         | Flying in (or near) small planes has a lot of risk, but I don't
         | see how this incident would change your impression of this one
         | manufacturer's planes.
        
           | cmckn wrote:
           | Oh no, my point was just that I'd be wary of getting in a
           | small plane, and Cirrus was the craft mentioned in the
           | article. I remember seeing a lot of them at this airport
           | (though they're probably outnumbered by Cesna's, lots of
           | small-time fliers there).
        
       | EricE wrote:
       | Juan Browne of the blancolirio YouTube channel did his usual
       | excellent overview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ph7OR6C90w
        
       | dkarras wrote:
       | Video of the cirrus chuting down:
       | https://twitter.com/DenverChannel/status/1392560583950561281
       | 
       | A photo of the airborne metroliner with fuselage blown open:
       | https://imgur.com/gallery/yKPOWR0
        
         | EricE wrote:
         | Juan Browne of the blancolirio YouTube channel did his usual
         | excellent overview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ph7OR6C90w
        
         | londons_explore wrote:
         | The plane flying missing half the fuselage suggests to me that
         | fuselage was excessively strong (and therefore heavy and
         | expensive).
         | 
         | A tube is only strong when complete. Cut away half the tube and
         | bending resistance probably goes down ~10x.
        
           | HPsquared wrote:
           | The structure would be designed around an adequate fatigue
           | life. I wouldn't be too surprised if fatigue considerations
           | were such that in "normal operations", stresses could well be
           | 10x lower than the ultimate material strength.
        
           | cesarb wrote:
           | > The plane flying missing half the fuselage suggests to me
           | that fuselage was excessively strong (and therefore heavy and
           | expensive).
           | 
           | It's probably the opposite: that the fuselage was only strong
           | enough to resist the air pressure differential, and that the
           | real structural component was the cabin floor. And that,
           | luckily, the control cables for the tail were routed through
           | the cabin floor, instead of through the top of the cabin.
        
             | stevehawk wrote:
             | It's not the cabin floor. it's what the cabin floor is
             | attached to. Most fuselages have all of their longitudinal
             | strength in their stringers, which are usually run along
             | the floor. If the Cirrus had ripped through the bottom of
             | that plane and not the top then that jet would have torn
             | apart.
        
               | londons_explore wrote:
               | Stringers in a plane seem akin to stringers in a car
               | frame... Cars have moved away to unibody designs (where
               | the shell of the car is also the structure) because it is
               | stronger, lighter and cheaper. Unibody designs have been
               | the norm for almost 100 years now.
        
               | hyperbovine wrote:
               | Nit: SA-226 is a turboprop not a jet.
        
         | lujim wrote:
         | Wow the Cirrus is looking pretty good for how much damage it
         | did to the Metro. Flight surfaces are still there and it's only
         | broken in half of the parachute landing. Guessing it might not
         | have been controllable after the collision.
        
       | wiedehopf wrote:
       | Exact tracks of both aircraft with timestamps: press K to enable
       | labels
       | https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a4eabe,a2cee7&lat=39.63...
        
       | franciscop wrote:
       | No deaths nor injuries involved, which I feel like this should be
       | in the headline. I came in expecting to see at least a commercial
       | flight was involved (how does it make to #1 on HN otherwise?) but
       | was very relieved to see it was two small aircrafts with 1 and 2
       | pilots respectively and everyone survived safely.
        
         | OJFord wrote:
         | > I came in expecting to see at least a commercial flight was
         | involved (how does it make to #1 on HN otherwise?)
         | 
         | The Metroliner (one with the fuselage ripped through) is
         | commercial, [0] but apparently carrying cargo only in this
         | case. [1]
         | 
         | Surely a mid-air collision even between two hobby Cessnas say
         | is rare/interesting enough to make it?
         | 
         | [0] - https://www.keylimeair.com/
         | 
         | [1] - https://www.aopa.org/news-and-media/all-
         | news/2021/may/12/col...
        
         | benatkin wrote:
         | If there were two commercial passenger flights involved and it
         | were 300 miles south, it would be life imitating art.
         | 
         | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ABQ_(Breaking_Bad)#Plot
        
         | t0mas88 wrote:
         | The Metroliner isn't really a small (private) aircraft, it's
         | more a commuter type aircraft, 19 seats. But in this case it
         | was only carrying cargo so the place of impact didn't have any
         | people in it.
         | 
         | Another lucky point is that it was at low altitude and at slow
         | speed (preparing to land). Higher up it would have been much
         | more likely to break up due to way higher speed and larger
         | pressure difference between the cabin and outside.
        
           | mannykannot wrote:
           | Other inches-from-death aspects: there was no-one in the aft
           | of the cabin; the collision missed the pilot; it missed the
           | empennage; it missed the wings; it missed the control cables;
           | and possibly (I'm speculating wildly here) it left the cabin
           | floor intact, without which, I doubt the tail would have
           | stayed on.
        
       | bartread wrote:
       | Bloody hell: the state of that Metroliner. Surprised it held
       | together with that amount of damage, and huge kudos to the pilots
       | for getting it on the ground safely.
       | 
       | For such a serious accident this seems about the best possible
       | outcome for the crew of both aircraft. I'm not an expert so I'm
       | not going to comment on root cause or blame here, but simply glad
       | to read that at least everybody survived.
        
       | mdip wrote:
       | Wow, that's incredible. Goes to show that people _do_ walk away
       | from plane crashes with some regularity. My father was a
       | pilot[0].
       | 
       | He sold his plane about 15 years ago (to a group of owners, one
       | of which was a priest, I'm sure there's a joke in there). A few
       | of winters later, he was called out to Romeo Airport; the pilot
       | flying the plane that was formerly his had crashed the aircraft a
       | few miles short of the runway in bad weather[1]. He was traveling
       | with his daughter, a friend and, I think, his wife. He died, but
       | his daughter was able to get free and make her way to a nearby
       | farm to call for help. Looking at the plane, the fact that anyone
       | _survived at all_ let alone walked to a nearby house with minor
       | injuries is pretty miraculous.
       | 
       | It's hard to impress upon folks who have never been in a small
       | plane like that just how ... yeah ... how much it feels like
       | you're hanging onto a kite. I have no idea the kinds of
       | structural technologies are involved in the aircraft but I know
       | his plane was made in the 70s and was light enough that he only
       | had a pole which attached to the front landing gear to pull it
       | out of the hangar. The weight is so critical that the 7-seat
       | plane can realistically only seat 4-5 adults. I remember being
       | shocked that they had to weigh the _paint_ they applied when he
       | had the plane re-painted.
       | 
       | [0] I'll spare the details as I have left many comments in the
       | past about his experiences.
       | 
       | [1] https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/43894 - "Pilot Error"; I
       | recall my Dad saying " _all_ plane crashes are pilot error "
       | 
       | [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Piper_PA-32_Cherokee_Six
        
         | hirundo wrote:
         | > It's hard to impress upon folks who have never been in a
         | small plane like that just how ... yeah ... how much it feels
         | like you're hanging onto a kite.
         | 
         | Years ago I was doing pilot training in a Cessna 152. A
         | coworker of mine was a retired Navy captain and instructor at
         | the TOPGUN program, with hundreds of carrier landings in an
         | F-14. He looked at me like I was crazy. He said those little
         | planes were deathtraps and he'd never go up in one again.
         | 
         | Not long after that I had a lesson that coincided with some
         | turbulence from the nearby coast. The plane janked around by
         | seemingly hundreds of feet in every direction. I was scared
         | (almost literally) shitless, and that was my last lesson. I
         | haven't been in a small plane since.
        
           | mistrial9 wrote:
           | thirty foot jump as a passenger in a 4-seater here at 10,000
           | feet in the mountains - I hear you! :D
        
           | mdip wrote:
           | I'm glad my Dad's not flying any longer. He was doing very
           | long (multiple stops for re-fueling, flying on some form of
           | breathing tank[0]) trips. He can go on for hours (and we let
           | him) about stories of how he almost didn't make it home due
           | to X or Y[1].
           | 
           | And he joked that every gauge/gadget on the dashboard that
           | didn't come with the plane was there because "if I had it
           | when X happened, X wouldn't have happened" (...or I wouldn't
           | have left the ground knowing the condition existed, or it
           | would have warned me with well enough time to get to safety
           | before I have to be met by emergency vehicles on the tarmac).
           | 
           | Funny enough, he would get a _little_ uncomfortable flying
           | commercial. I 'm not sure if he was putting on a show for us
           | kids or if he was serious but he'd say he "didn't like
           | someone else in charge of the plane". My Dad flew GA (alone)
           | a few times a week most weeks, so he was unusually
           | experienced for a small plane pilot.
           | 
           | [0] He had a breathing apparatus that allowed him to fly at
           | higher altitudes in the unpressurized cabin, IIRC, but I'm
           | not a pilot.
           | 
           | [1] Except, when he tells it, he was never in any danger.
           | Doesn't matter if he's hanging an arm out the window trying
           | to manually spin the prop, "it was _always_ under control. ".
           | Uh huh.
        
         | ip26 wrote:
         | _It 's hard to impress upon folks who have never been in a
         | small plane like that just how ... yeah ... how much it feels
         | like you're hanging onto a kite_
         | 
         | Went up in a four man single engine chopper once. It had all
         | the reassuring solidity of a bicycle. Never again. I can't even
         | imagine what the truly tiny ones are like.
        
           | lbriner wrote:
           | I had a lesson in an Ikarus C42, which although it looks like
           | a "normal" light aircraft is made of kevlar over aluminium
           | and is officially a microlight. It is a 2-seater but the
           | weight is so low that if you are travelling with a passenger,
           | there is a weight limit. I think I worked out that my 6'3"
           | boss was too heavy to fly with an instructor.
           | 
           | It was actually pretty fun but, of course, the weather is
           | everything. I can't imagine how bad it would be in any wind
           | more than about 5 knots but on the day I had my lesson, it
           | was calm and clear.
        
           | mdip wrote:
           | I did one of those chopper tours over a big city one time in
           | a splurge. Yeah, I hear ya.
           | 
           | I was surprised at how similar the feel is. Your bicycle
           | analogy made me laugh -- spot on. I used to _love_ taking my
           | macho friends up in my dad 's plane. There's this moment
           | after take-off where my Dad will comment on "how smooth the
           | air is" ... it's either "perspective" or a pilot joke, I'm
           | not sure, because said "smooth air" is about as bad as
           | reasonable air-turbulence on a jet and the flight is usually
           | marked occasionally by the kind of turbulence that would have
           | the overhead bins tossing luggage onto passengers. I recall a
           | humorous incident where my buddy Tim dropped an F-bomb over a
           | hot mic on the headset when we got smacked sideways.
        
         | qayxc wrote:
         | > The weight is so critical that the 7-seat plane can
         | realistically only seat 4-5 adults.
         | 
         | I think you overlooked an important factor there. The plane was
         | indeed designed to realistically seat 7 adults.
         | 
         | The issue is that in the 50 years since the plane was
         | originally designed, the average weight of adults (in the US)
         | increased by about 18% [0] and the average adult woman today
         | weighs as much as the average adult man in the 1960s.
         | 
         | [0] https://www.newsmax.com/US/average-weight-man-woman-
         | obese/20...
        
           | captainredbeard wrote:
           | Wrong - most singles can't fill the seats and the tanks. This
           | is general aviation 101 folks
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | If you can fill the seats and the tanks (and be legal), I'd
             | say someone made your tanks too small.
        
             | selectodude wrote:
             | Apparently normal humans weighed less than 150 pounds until
             | we discovered McDonalds.
        
               | jeffreyrogers wrote:
               | I think the average US soldier in WWII weighed less than
               | 150. People were a little shorter then too though.
        
             | boringg wrote:
             | This sounds like backcountry tent sizing. 3-person tent!
             | (Good luck fitting two people in there and anything else!)
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | Over-sizing vehicles for the intended cargo is far more
               | of an upscale suburb thing than a BFE thing.
        
           | mdip wrote:
           | Not so much overlooked as omitted ... I had originally
           | written "average American adults" but I didn't want to
           | distract into the territory of "how bad our diets are in this
           | country".
           | 
           | My Dad almost always flew alone. So much so that when the
           | plane was packed and we were making an approach into the
           | Sandusky, OH airport, we had a sudden "dip" on the way down
           | that _everyone_ noticed (we were headed to Cedar Pointe, so
           | it was preparation, I guess). My Dad explained that he wasn
           | 't used to landing with so much weight and hadn't adjusted
           | the trim correctly[0].
           | 
           | [0] If it wasn't abundantly clear, all of my flying
           | experience ended at about age 17, which was a while ago, and
           | I was never a pilot, so to the extent that I get any of this
           | wrong -- that's why :)
        
           | kbutler wrote:
           | 6 * 1.18 = 7.08 people, so that could explain 1 adult.
           | 
           | I think the "some adults, some kids" is more significant -
           | similar to back seats in many small cars - you can put 3
           | passengers in there, but 3 adults won't be happy.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | I find it very hard to agree that a PA-32 was "designed to
           | realistically seat 7 adults". I don't think they even
           | imagined 6 adults as a typical cabin load, but rather a max
           | of 4 adults and 2 kids and a typical of 2 adults and 2-4
           | kids. It is one of the more roomy cabins among light singles,
           | but every one of them that I see for listed for sale right
           | now is configured with seating for only 6, which is great for
           | 2 adults and a few kids.
        
             | travisjungroth wrote:
             | The point of the person you're replying to is that people
             | have gotten bigger, which is a fact. Pointing out the
             | comfort of levels of people in airplanes today doesn't
             | dispute that.
             | 
             | It used to be more common to have a flexible combination of
             | seats/baggage/fuel. But pilots flip out (or crash) if they
             | can't fill the tanks, every seat and the baggage
             | compartment and come in under gross. So the same airplanes
             | often don't have the "bonus seats" they used to.
             | 
             | Numbers from Wikipedia, from the 1972 PA-32 owners
             | handbook:
             | 
             | 3,400 lb gross - 1,788 empty - (4 hours * 15gph * 6 lbs) /
             | 7 passengers = 178 lbs per passenger. The average adult in
             | the 70s was about 160. So you're not going across the
             | country, but you could safely do a day trip with a 90
             | minute flight each way.
             | 
             | Now the average adult is 180. And they're a little taller
             | than they were in the 70s, but not much. So every passenger
             | has an extra 20 pounds _horizontally_. So in 2021, you 'd
             | be just over gross except that the people can't actually
             | fit in the airplane.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Have you ever seen the optional 7th seat for a PA-32? It
               | makes for 3-across in the back row which makes the
               | backseat of a 911 look positively roomy.
        
               | travisjungroth wrote:
               | I just looked at photos. Yes, it's very small.
               | 
               | Here's a Piper ad from 1966 with seven adults and their
               | bags: https://i.imgur.com/fWyArRH.png
               | 
               | "The SIX will carry up to seven adults and their luggage
               | - in real comfort"
               | 
               | And here's an ad from 1969 with six adults in it (and
               | some rifles. a different time!)
               | https://i.imgur.com/kGMrENf.png
               | 
               | I can't read into the minds of the engineers who made the
               | airplane. Maybe it's true "I don't think they even
               | imagined 6 adults as a typical cabin load". But we can
               | see that the marketing department at least tried to make
               | people think it was.
        
               | lisper wrote:
               | The useful load of a PA-32 is about 1500 lbs, so yes, you
               | can put 7 180-lb adults in it and still have a little
               | margin. What you cannot do is carry 7 adults plus their
               | bags plus full fuel. Even without bags, you could not go
               | very far with a full plane.
               | 
               | Some planes have more margin: the Cessna 182 for example
               | is a four-seater and can carry full fuel plus 800 lbs, so
               | you really can load it up with four people plus bags and
               | still go somewhere.
               | 
               | But all planes will be close to their operating limits
               | when fully loaded. Even a jetliner will typically be very
               | close to its operating limits on takeoff and pilots have
               | to pay very close attention to this. If you think about
               | it, this has to be the case. If it weren't, the plane
               | would have been over-designed and much more expensive
               | than it has to be, and so it would lose to the
               | competition.
        
             | jsight wrote:
             | Yeah, its 7 seats in the same sense as the Tesla Model Y
             | can be a 7 seater. Its technically true, but really only
             | true if some of those people are small.
             | 
             | Even with FAA standard people it would be small for 7.
        
             | mdip wrote:
             | You're probably right -- I likely have the number wrong. In
             | fact, I was able to find the craft in a database online
             | (still reporting my Dad's corporation as the owner, so it's
             | not perfect) and it indicated 6.
             | 
             | I recall him saying 7, but that was a few decades ago (the
             | plane was destroyed by its new owners in 2006, and I hadn't
             | flown in it since a few years prior to that). :)
        
           | mnw21cam wrote:
           | There's also the fact that an aircraft like that may be able
           | to carry 7 adults _in some conditions_. If you 're at sea
           | level in cold dry weather[0], then you'll have a lot more
           | performance available than if you're trying to take off from
           | Denver airport on a hot summer day just after a load of rain.
           | There have been (usually light) aircraft that have crashed on
           | takeoff/landing because the pilot didn't take the hot day
           | into account, the minimum flying speed was higher than they
           | expected, and the engine performance was too low.
           | 
           | [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Density_altitude
        
         | BashiBazouk wrote:
         | I once witnessed an airplane crash that everyone survived. I
         | was a preteen hanging around outside the Scotts Valley roller
         | rink with a friend in the early eighties. The roller rink is
         | next to the now defunct airfield. The airfield was lower than
         | the rink by an embankment. We had recently been watching Jaws
         | on Betamax and my most persistent memory is seeing only the
         | tail crossing the field. It reminded me of a shark fin moving
         | through the water, as the embankment was high enough that I
         | could not see the body of the plane. Then bam, the plane hit
         | the embankment right in front of me, caught air then crashed
         | nose down. I think the plane was a Piper but my knowledge of
         | small craft is limited. It was definitely a wing under. My
         | friend ran to get his father and we all ran over to the wreck.
         | My friend's father opened the doors and everyone but the pilot
         | was able to get out by themselves. The pilot had hit his head
         | on something and his face was covered in blood but alive. I
         | found out from press reports later that was the only time I
         | "met" Steve Wozniak.
         | 
         | Edit: just looked it up. The plane was a Beechcraft Bonanza
         | A36TC.
        
           | ZeljkoS wrote:
           | https://www.cultofmac.com/465778/today-in-apple-history-
           | stev...
        
           | DiggyJohnson wrote:
           | Thanks for sharing this story. Well structured, great ending.
        
         | AdrianB1 wrote:
         | In aviation load and range are always a compromise, you can fly
         | short distance with a higher load (all passengers) or a longer
         | distance with less passengers. The combined passenger weight
         | and full tanks weight is always more than the Maximum Take Off
         | Weigth (MTOW). For example the small plane that I fly the most
         | has enough fuel capacity to fly around 2000km, but if I will
         | the tanks I need to fly alone, there is no reserve even for a
         | backpack. When I took my brother for a flight around the
         | airstrip I had 20 liters of fuel in the tanks 'cause he is
         | heavy (for an European).
         | 
         | I have a couple of friends that each crash landed at least
         | twice in the past 10-15 years; one was in the hospital once,
         | for the rest of the incidents they simply walked. In two cases
         | it was engine failure, in one a stuck landing gear and the
         | hospital one had an external factor.
        
         | sillysaurusx wrote:
         | Did his wife survive?
        
           | osenthuortuh wrote:
           | The second link is the crash report. There were four
           | occupants and only one fatality, so only he died.
           | 
           | Looks like he tried to land in bad weather, descended before
           | he could see the runway, and clipped some trees. Weather is
           | an alarmingly common cause of accidents in general aviation.
        
             | jrockway wrote:
             | > Weather is an alarmingly common cause of accidents in
             | general aviation.
             | 
             | Well, flying VFR into IMC anyway.
        
             | mdip wrote:
             | So the "details" are a _little_ off. There wasn 't rain, it
             | was an outright winter storm. The pilot was VFR and should
             | not have been flying in that weather.
             | 
             | I don't know what the characteristics are of that airport
             | but I've been in the plane during a really touchy landing
             | in bad snow, before. The occupants described that
             | "everything seemed fine", they were coming out of the
             | clouds and expecting to see the runway up ahead, but
             | instead found tree-tops.
             | 
             | In the case of landing with my Dad in similar weather, the
             | clouds were very low, he had no visual and was reaching the
             | point where he'd have to put it down or abort the
             | landing[0] when he suddenly flung the clipboard at my mom's
             | lap and grabbed onto the yoke.
             | 
             | We were on the ground in a few tense seconds and I've
             | _never_ seen my Dad jump like that -- it _seriously_
             | freaked me the hell out. His explanation was that he had
             | already decided to abort the landing when the clouds broke
             | and he realized he was in a good position to put it down. I
             | get the impression that he was a little surprised about the
             | position he was _actually_ in -- and it was an
             | uncharacteristically violent landing.
             | 
             | [0] I'm not sure what the technical details are or if I am
             | getting that right...
        
             | strogonoff wrote:
             | > Weather is an alarmingly common cause of accidents in
             | general aviation.
             | 
             | Or--to rewind the causal chain just a little further--pilot
             | hubris, impatience and/or ignorance, which leads to weather
             | being a factor in the first place. The choice to wing it
             | and hope bad weather in the area will not affect you is the
             | pilot's.
             | 
             | From my shallow study of fatal and non-fatal GA accidents,
             | there is hardly ever such a combination of life-or-death
             | urgency and absence of alternative transportation options
             | besides flying that could justify risking one's own life
             | and lives of one's passengers by wilfully or accidentally
             | ignoring weather forecast, and yet too often that appears
             | to be the case.
             | 
             | It's not a pleasure to talk about incidents like that, but
             | "all plane crashes are pilot error" strikes me as a decent
             | framing of the situation to adopt _as a pilot_ when
             | considering a risky flight.
        
               | mdip wrote:
               | Without reviewing your profile, I'm just going to guess
               | you're a pilot or you know pilots -- just from this:
               | > Or--to rewind the causal chain just a little further--
               | pilot hubris, impatience and/or ignorance, which leads to
               | weather being a factor in the first place. The choice to
               | wing it and hope bad weather in the area will not affect
               | you is the pilot's.
               | 
               | My Dad says "it's _always_ pilot error " and backs them
               | up with statements like this. And he accepts that fault
               | on himself. These are obvious things, too -- in the case
               | of this crash, the pilot was VFR rated and as my Dad
               | harshly put it "had no business being where he was in
               | that weather".
               | 
               | But he really meant _everything_ is the pilots fault. I
               | heard him explaining to someone that there 's ultimately
               | no other valid excuse. When his engine failed over Lake
               | Michigan, it was pilot error because he didn't have the
               | necessary instruments to detect a common engine condition
               | that would have prevented him from taking off had he
               | known it was happening.
               | 
               | I think it's a little extreme, but frankly, I _want_ the
               | person flying my plane to have that attitude for
               | themselves!
        
               | 7952 wrote:
               | I think you would still feel guilty if passengers were
               | hurt even if you were completely blameless. And part of
               | your responsibility is to understand the risks. Risks
               | that passengers may not fully understand. It is more like
               | a risky sport like horse riding or skiing.
        
               | organsnyder wrote:
               | I have a friend that is a commercial pilot for small
               | jets, and until recently taught general aviation. He says
               | that the overwhelming majority of GA accidents are poor
               | planning: skipping items on the checklist, flying in
               | inappropriate conditions, etc.
        
               | wingspar wrote:
               | Another famous case of bad judgement resulting is JFK Jr.
               | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_F._Kennedy_Jr._plane_c
               | ras...
        
             | karlkatzke wrote:
             | Yes, those cumulogranite clouds are dangerous.
        
         | rubicon33 wrote:
         | There is a similar story in rally car safety. In the 80s and
         | 90s going off the road at high speeds almost certainly meant
         | death or serious injury.
         | 
         | By comparison, there are some horrific crashes today that
         | drivers are walking away from. [1]
         | 
         | [1] https://youtu.be/YpNdoV6xv2s
        
           | [deleted]
        
         | throwaway0a5e wrote:
         | > The weight is so critical that the 7-seat plane can
         | realistically only seat 4-5 adults. I remember being shocked
         | that they had to weigh the paint they applied when he had the
         | plane re-painted.
         | 
         | I used to work in general aviation. If my eyes could fly a loop
         | in my skull they would have.
         | 
         | Were the occupants required to use the bathroom before flying?
         | That's how much weight you're potentially saving by weighing
         | the paint on a small aircraft.
         | 
         | They make you weigh the paint because they want you to spray on
         | a certain thickness so they say "X oz paint, Y oz
         | thinner/hardener" (or something like that) in order to get your
         | mixture into the right ballpark so it will work with whatever
         | procedure they want you to spray it on with and get the
         | thickness/finish/hardness the OEM wants you to get.
         | 
         | In aviation there's a ton of treating simple systems as black
         | boxes and "do X and exactly X" type maintenance that happens in
         | order to smoothly transfer liability. You paint a cowl the way
         | the OEM says not because you couldn't get an equivalently
         | performing cowl a different way but because you don't want the
         | NTSB coming after you trying to determine if you did it
         | different but right or different but wrong.
         | 
         | The specifications to which general aviation stuff is done
         | isn't really any more exacting than stuff in automotive or
         | heavy industry. The service literature is just more verbose and
         | the service procedures are more tightly defined.
        
           | officeplant wrote:
           | >The specifications to which general aviation stuff is done
           | isn't really any more exacting than stuff in automotive or
           | heavy industry. The service literature is just more verbose
           | and the service procedures are more tightly defined.
           | 
           | This reminds me of how often I quote weight limits on cars to
           | people and their eyes go wide at how easy it is to exceed the
           | OEM's recommended limits. I'm fairly sure I'm one of the few
           | among my friend groups that has read through every owners
           | manual for the cars/vans I've owned.
        
           | ryandrake wrote:
           | I'm building an experimental, and we tend to re-do weight and
           | balance after painting. An elaborate paint job can add 30+
           | pounds and can shift your CG rearward. The regs don't require
           | it, but many builders do it anyway.
        
           | throwaway330935 wrote:
           | >in order to get your mixture into the right ballpark
           | 
           | This makes perfect sense. I'm using a kitchen scale to
           | measure the 2-part silicone mixture that I'm using for making
           | toys, not because weight is critical but because it needs to
           | be right for curing. I should do similar when mixing epoxy,
           | but I always eyeball that for some reason. Maybe has to do
           | with cost, it's $10-20 worth of silicone I'm mixing, and
           | usually a quarter worth of epoxy, just due to quantities
           | involved.
        
           | marvin wrote:
           | I know that glider maintenance procedures in my country call
           | for redoing the center of gravity measurents after painting.
           | Might have been related?
        
             | inoffensivename wrote:
             | In the US, the FAA requires recalculation of the weight and
             | balance unless the change is "negligible", which AC
             | 43.13-1B defines as "any change of one pound or less for
             | aircraft whose weight empty is less than 5,000 pounds".
             | 
             | I think the commenter was making the point that the weight
             | of the paint is not a significant consideration, not that
             | recalculating the weight and balance after a paint job
             | should not be done.
        
           | labcomputer wrote:
           | Well... ok, but you usually still need to weigh and check the
           | balance of the control surfaces after painting to ensure that
           | they aren't going to flutter at less than Vmc (post-paint
           | control surface balancing is often explicitly called out in
           | the maintenance manual).
           | 
           | Painting a plane is one of those times that you often strip
           | everything out anyway, so it's a convenient time to check the
           | weight and balance against the logbook.
        
           | mdip wrote:
           | Very interesting. I remember thinking it was positively
           | "nuts", but then when you're in the aircraft being slapped
           | around by the breeze, it starts to click.
        
         | dehrmann wrote:
         | > how much it feels like you're hanging onto a kite
         | 
         | The two "small" planes I've ridden in were a Cessna and an
         | L-39. The Cessna felt like a toy, and the L-39 was a serious
         | piece of hardware. Landings were also very different; the
         | Cessna just got tossed around a lot more.
        
       | FatalLogic wrote:
       | It's strange that the planes were supposed to be flying parallel
       | and yet the damage to both planes in the photos suggests a
       | collision at right angles
       | 
       | Remarkable that the Metroliner held together, despite that
       | terrible damage, and they landed it safely
       | 
       | edit: interesting photo of the landing from the Reddit thread
       | linked elsewhere https://imgur.com/gallery/yKPOWR0
        
         | t0mas88 wrote:
         | The Cirrus overshot the centerline of the runway it was
         | supposed to land on. The common way for these situations is for
         | the plane to be on an intercept angle towards the centerline.
         | That's a max 30 degree angle for an instrument approach, but
         | this was a visual approach so it could have been a sharper
         | angle. All it takes to make this mistake in a Cirrus (and other
         | G1000 avionics type small airplanes) is to forget 1 button on
         | the autopilot mode. If it isn't set to capture the final
         | approach track (either GPS or ILS) it will continue straight
         | ahead which in this case means into the side of another
         | airplane.
         | 
         | One thing that makes it more likely is that US air traffic
         | control makes heavy use of visual approaches, and then it's
         | allowed to point two aircraft at collision courses on the same
         | altitude because they can see each other. The European way to
         | do this is to have them intercept at different altitudes so if
         | one overshoots they pass over/under. But it results in lower
         | capacity per runway than the US system.
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | If the 1 button on autopilot mode is the red autopilot
           | disconnect, "time to hand-fly" button, I agree with you.
           | 
           | This turn to final (with the unusual additional warning to
           | "do not fly through final") is a visual maneuver and I'd
           | expect most every pilot to be hand-flying at that point. (My
           | autopilot and navigator is _capable_ to make that intercept,
           | but it's way more tedious and distracting to program it than
           | to just fly it.)
        
             | t0mas88 wrote:
             | In the airline world it would at the very least be
             | encouraged and in many cases mandatory to have the
             | underlying approach programmed for this anyway. Even more
             | so if told not to fly through final you would have the
             | localizer up and monitor it.
             | 
             | In a Cirrus with what is probably a GFC 700 with flight
             | director capabilities I would expect any competent
             | instrument rated pilot to have the FD on and approach mode
             | armed (the 1 missing button I meant) exactly to avoid this
             | mistake.
             | 
             | Great to hand fly, but in a capable airplane just plain
             | stupid not to use all the tools. And even mandatory on the
             | professional side of things in many cases.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | NB: There is no instrument approach to 17R @ KAPA.
               | 
               | I agree I'd have an extended centerline up (it's up by
               | default if I zoom the MFD in close enough in my lesser-
               | equipped A36), but this is a fully visual maneuver.
               | 
               | Almost no one is going to define a user waypoint near the
               | touchdown zone for 17R and pull an OBS line off that just
               | so they can use the FD/AP to make an entirely routine
               | turn to final.
        
               | t0mas88 wrote:
               | That makes things a lot harder for the Cirrus pilot. Easy
               | to get the lineup slightly wrong with for example some
               | wind correction in from far away. Crazy that ATC had them
               | do this at the same altitude as conflicting traffic with
               | no underlying approach as a safety net. You can ask
               | someone not to go through final, but that's very easy to
               | miss judge from a couple of miles away.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | Slightly harder? I'd agree with that. A lot harder? 20
               | hour student pilots make visual turns from base to final
               | from 3 miles out every day. This is not Top Gun material.
        
               | ddoolin wrote:
               | If the sight picture is the usual one for the pilot,
               | sure. I think if you throw a 20-hour pilot at an
               | unfamiliar airport with a different pattern configuration
               | than they're used to (right or left, direct to base,
               | etc), your chances of overshooting can go up a lot. Throw
               | in tight parallels and it's not great.
               | 
               | I train at an airport with parallels with a tight-enough
               | runway separation gap to necessitate a 15-degree offset
               | in both T/O & L on the GA runway. > 100-hour me overshot
               | into the adjacent approach when being cleared direct to
               | base for the "commercial runway" which I've probably only
               | been given once before. Shameful, yes, and a learning
               | experience, but I never overshoot on the adjacent (we
               | also have different TPAs for the parallels, probably for
               | this reason though).
        
               | azalemeth wrote:
               | My gut feeling is that a deconfliction policy will appear
               | on the charts and in the airport's procedures. Just
               | because something can be done correctly, if the
               | momentary-cockup-consequence is potentially the death of
               | a large number of people, it's a good idea to make sure
               | that there's some sort of defence in depth.
        
           | azalemeth wrote:
           | Indeed.
           | 
           | Something else I'd like to point out is that it might seem
           | easy to 'blame the Cirrus' pilot or them call out for
           | inattention, but doing so by itself isn't helpful. Aviation
           | is so safe partly because it has managed to turn a culture of
           | blame into a culture of continuous improvement and shared
           | learning: I'd be very surprised if the airport's procedures
           | came out of this unmodified, for example.
        
             | elliekelly wrote:
             | I've probably mentioned this book on HN a hundred times but
             | "Black Box Thinking" discusses the aviation culture of
             | avoiding blame and making sure a problem isn't repeated and
             | how other industries (like medicine) would benefit hugely
             | from a similar approach. It's really interesting.
        
               | EricE wrote:
               | Would also help computer "science" as well :p
        
               | lbriner wrote:
               | I'm not sure how scalable this is in modern penny-
               | pinching times. In the old days, airlines had to prove
               | they were safe to attract business and this involved
               | accepting that certain practices were harmful and they
               | were therefore improved.
               | 
               | Once we got to the 1980s, we had so many airlines trying
               | to survive that corners were cut, recommendations were
               | not followed and various accidents were essentially
               | negligent.
               | 
               | Now that lots of smaller airlines have been merged into
               | larger ones, we now have Boeing type problems where the
               | cost of manufacture, safety and development is so much
               | higher than before, no-one wants to put a new plane
               | through the whole approvals process, we just want to re-
               | badge a 737 and get it into service.
               | 
               | Similar things happen on the railways in the UK where we
               | have the RAIB to do a similar "no-blame" analysis of a
               | crash/accident yet still time and time again, the same
               | problems surface - lack of preparation, lack of training
               | and lack of following procedures.
        
               | elliekelly wrote:
               | I agree and it's somewhat addressed in the book - if you
               | find the premise at all interesting you should definitely
               | read it, even if you're skeptical of the practicality of
               | implementing the philosophy (for lack of a better word)
               | it's interesting and the examples are compelling.
               | 
               | Some of the examples are whole-cloth cultural changes of
               | entire industries (usually commercial flight actually,
               | IIRC), but some are small, simple, changes that can be
               | implemented by one or two people and still have a
               | dramatic impact. One of the smaller-scale examples from
               | the book that really stuck out was the attitude &
               | approach of a surgeon in an operating room. When surgeons
               | approach mistakes from the perspective of "okay, this
               | happened, let's focus on how we fix it" mistakes are
               | reported to the surgeon quickly, the surgeon gets
               | accurate information quickly, and can respond
               | appropriately. Result: _more_ mistakes are reported but
               | the surgeon has fewer complications and better outcomes.
               | 
               | When surgeons approach mistakes by getting angry or
               | assigning blame to the nurse who did X or the resident
               | who did Y those surgeons have _fewer_ (reported) mistakes
               | but worse outcomes. Why? People don't fess up because
               | they fear the consequences. And when a mistake _is_
               | identified, people don't give accurate and complete
               | information because their primary concern is KYA rather
               | than fixing the problem at hand.
        
             | phkahler wrote:
             | >> I'd be very surprised if the airport's procedures came
             | out of this unmodified, for example.
             | 
             | I'm curious. The airport is at about 5900ft and they were
             | at 6400. If that's AGL for them that seems like a long and
             | high approach. If not, then they were going to do a 3 mile
             | straight in at 500 feet AGL? Either interpretation doesn't
             | fit my (limited, student) experience.
        
               | azalemeth wrote:
               | KAPA is indeed 5900 MSL, and those heights are also all
               | MSL.
               | 
               | Looking at the FAA's charts,
               | https://aeronav.faa.gov/d-tpp/2104/05715R17L.PDF, this
               | combination of heights and distances isn't _totally_
               | crazy -- I state without proof (and wait to be
               | corrected!) that the approach is modified because it is a
               | relatively high altitude airport and there may be quite
               | steeply changing terrain underneath. I 've never flown
               | there (not even on X-plane) and I'm a low-hours UK
               | person.
               | 
               | I haven't done the trig and meterological lookup to work
               | out what their AGL altitude was on that day, but at the
               | very least it's not crazy-wrong from the published
               | chart...
        
         | omegant wrote:
         | Looking at the youtube video of the radar with the radio sound
         | that someone posted below, the Cirrus is cleared to runway 17R
         | but he turns to runway 17L. There are 3 possibilities : 1- he
         | mistakes one runway for the other visually, 2- he wrongly
         | thinks he is cleared for the 17L runway 3- or he makes a too
         | wide turn going for the 17R, intruding the 17L area.
         | 
         | The cirrus is the one that makes the mistake.
         | 
         | The 17 runways are quite close laterally (700') , it may be
         | either way a bad maneuver (overshooting) or chosing the wrong
         | runway.
         | 
         | https://es.flightaware.com/resources/airport/APA/APD/AIRPORT...
         | 
         | The metro was not expecting another traffic in approach for his
         | runway (I understand that they were in different frequencies
         | with different controllers).
         | 
         | During the approach the upper-right side relative angle
         | position in the window of the metro, makes the cirrus hard to
         | spot. I guess he didn't see the cirrus at all or just barely
         | before the crash.
         | 
         | The cirrus is looking at the runway to his right and the other
         | traffic probably the whole time, the metro is in front of him,
         | so he doesn't see the Metro till he is on top of him.
         | 
         | Usually with parallel runways, traffics are kept at different
         | altitudes till they are aligned with their runways. This way if
         | they make a mistake, they are separated by 1000' vertically
         | with the airplane flying parallel.
         | 
         | In this case the cirrus was cleared to visual approach and
         | informed of the cessna he had to follow first. Once he says he
         | has the cessna in sight, he is cleared to visual approach
         | following the cessna. In the same comunication he is informed
         | of the metro flying to the other runway and he replies traffic
         | in sight again.
         | 
         | My guess is that he either has the metro in sight at the
         | beginning and then he forgets about it during the maneuver, or
         | he gives traffic in sight two times.
         | 
         | Thinking that the second part of the message is for the same
         | aircraft (the cessna) he doesn't even recognize what the
         | controller is telling him about the metro. This is possible if
         | he is too busy flying the maneuver and not paying proper
         | attention to the radio, he hears "cleared for approach" and
         | "traffic" but he mentally don't really process the information
         | the controller is giving him. A kind of sensory overload.
         | 
         | In airliners we have mandatory TCAS (traffic collision
         | avoidance system) installed that shows you the near traffics in
         | the screen and give you coordinated (between the traffics)
         | automatic avoidance guidance and alarms( one traffic climbs and
         | the other descends or keeps altitude).
         | 
         | In busy airports TCAS maneuver happen relatively often (a
         | handfull of times a year) but nowadays is much harder to have a
         | collision or a close call.
         | 
         | Also when two pilots are in the cockpit (like airliners) it's
         | easier that one is concentrated in flying and the other in the
         | communications. It's very common to correct and be corrected
         | all the time during the flight.
         | 
         | It will be interesting to read the official report.
         | 
         | Edit: Kudos to the Metro pilot who was super calmed in the
         | radio while declaring emergency and landing the plane. That is
         | really difficult.
         | 
         | Edit 2: correcting the airport , KAPA (I talked about KDEN
         | initially which has the same runways but with a bigger
         | separation). This does make a difference regarding the mistake.
         | Thank you Denvercoder9 for the heads up.
        
           | mannykannot wrote:
           | > I understand that they were in different frequencies with
           | different controllers.
           | 
           | If that is so, then it seems from the recording that the
           | Metroliner pilot was only informed about the Cessna ahead of
           | him and on approach to 17R, not of the Cirrus.
           | 
           | The Cirrus pilot is told about the Metroliner in an exchange
           | that goes thus:
           | 
           |  _TWR: "Cirrus 6DJ, traffic you're following just turned
           | right base there ahead and to your right at 6600', Cessna."
           | 
           | 6DJ: "I have traffic in sight, 6DJ."
           | 
           | TWR: "Cirrus 6DJ, follow them, runway 17R, cleared to land.
           | Additional traffic north shore, it's a Metroliner for the
           | parallel runway."
           | 
           | 6DJ: "Traffic in sight, cleared to land 17R, 6DJ."_
           | 
           | Now, does that second "traffic in sight" refer to both
           | aircraft, or only to the Cessna he had just been cleared to
           | follow? It would be unambiguous if he had replied "two in
           | sight", but if, for whatever reason, the mention of the
           | Metroliner (in the same call as the clearance was given) had
           | not registered, the Cirrus pilot would not have been aware
           | that more than one other aircraft needed his attention. And
           | if the Metroliner communication was being conducted on a
           | different frequency, neither pilot would have had any other
           | opportunity to become aware of the other airplane, except by
           | seeing it - and, in addition to the Metroliner pilot
           | presumably being in the left seat, the Cirrus was banked
           | right, turning final, and one might guess its pilot was
           | probably looking at the runways and/or the Cessna ahead.
           | 
           | Putting this together, I suspect the Cirrus pilot never
           | registered the presence of the Metroliner until the collision
           | - and I doubt the Metroliner pilot saw the Cirrus even after
           | the collision, given that he thought he had an engine failure
           | (he might have seen it earlier, when it was heading north on
           | downwind, and assumed it was behind him.)
           | 
           | This does not alter the fact that the Cirrus pilot overshot
           | the 17R approach while turning onto final, and it is this
           | which caused the collision. One other fact, pointed out by
           | several commentators: the Cirrus was travelling at about 160
           | kts at the time, so any delay in turning final results in
           | being out of position more quickly than in your average
           | small, single-engined airplane.
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | 160 kts (around 140 indicated) does not seem like a
             | remotely appropriate airspeed to join a pattern full of
             | Cessnas in closed traffic.
             | 
             | SR22 Vs0 is 59 knots (call it 60 to make the math easier).
             | 1.3 x Vs0 is a reasonable "over the fence" speed, so 78
             | knots (call it 80) indicated would be good on short final,
             | maybe 90 on base-to-final. (Instead, they were descending
             | and thus accelerating slightly and hit 169 knots on the
             | base leg.)
             | 
             | Bombing into the pattern over 50 knots faster than
             | appropriate (70 knots faster than the traffic you're
             | following and 40 knots faster than the much larger and on-
             | profile Metro on the parallel) might be contributing, but
             | certainly suggests to me that the Cirrus crew was behind
             | the airplane.
             | 
             | https://globe.adsbexchange.com/?icao=a4eabe,a2cee7,a90ffa&l
             | a...
        
             | omegant wrote:
             | " Putting this together, I suspect the Cirrus pilot never
             | registered the presence of the Metroliner until the
             | collision - and I doubt the Metroliner pilot saw the Cirrus
             | even after the collision, given that he thought he had an
             | engine failure"
             | 
             | This is what I think aswell. The overshoot may be either
             | way a miss identification of the runway, or just a poorly
             | executed turn to final of the 17R. The investigation is
             | going to be interesting.
        
           | Denvercoder9 wrote:
           | _> The 17 runways are quite separated laterally so it's more
           | probable that he was wrongly going for the 17L thinking he
           | was aiming for the correct runway.
           | 
           | > https://flttrack.fltplan.com/AirportDiagrams/KDENapt.jpg_
           | 
           | This is the diagram for a different airport (Denver
           | International, KDEN). The accident happened at Centennial
           | Airport (KAPA), where the two runways are only separated by
           | about 700 feet.
        
             | mannykannot wrote:
             | 17R is shorter and narrower than 17L. If the pilot mistook
             | 17R for a taxiway, it would have been a mirror-image
             | situation to the relatively recent one at SFO, were an
             | airliner was making its approach to a taxiway.
        
             | omegant wrote:
             | Thank you! I should have checked. Then he may have
             | overshoot going for the correct runway. Thankfully both
             | pilots will be able to testify.
        
       | gkanai wrote:
       | Commercial pilot Juan Browne covers this on his channel:
       | 
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ph7OR6C90w
        
       | ChrisMarshallNY wrote:
       | Glad no one was injured or killed. Sounds like the Metroliner
       | pilot did very well.
       | 
       | I really think that we should not have flying cars until we have
       | true autopilot (hands off the wheel, meatbag!). The thought of
       | the "Hey y'all! Lookit this!" knuckleheads that regularly open
       | up, roaring past my house, in three dimensions, is chilling. They
       | are bad enough with just two.
       | 
       | I'll bet that the advent of true driverless tech will also be the
       | advent of illegal aftermarket "mod kits." I can see it now...the
       | "Hold My Beer(tm)" line of manual override modules...
        
         | simonswords82 wrote:
         | Reality is that you won't have the type of idiots that roar
         | past your house flying cars/planes or anything of that nature
         | unless it is fully automated because most of them aren't smart
         | enough to pass the tests required to be a pilot.
        
       | gresrun wrote:
       | ATC comms with visualization:
       | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5tb2dVWJqc
        
         | ordu wrote:
         | The pilot is speaking about failed engine after the collision,
         | like it is nothing. Fascinating. I'd be shouting something
         | obscene in such a situation. For half an hour at least, I
         | think.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | js2 wrote:
           | I thought he sounded just a little rattled after he was on
           | the ground. As calm as his demeanor was right after the
           | collision, there had to have been some adrenaline going in
           | landing that plane.
        
           | [deleted]
        
           | neom wrote:
           | Trusted his training. Very good pilot.
        
           | NikolaeVarius wrote:
           | This what separates professionals from the chaff
        
           | goodcanadian wrote:
           | He might not have been aware of the full extent of the
           | damage. He is on final; the plane is flying; he's lost an
           | engine; he's going to land it. There is no time for anything
           | else.
        
             | alistairSH wrote:
             | _He might not have been aware of the full extent of the
             | damage._
             | 
             | This is likely true. He was the only person onboard the
             | plane, so he would not have been able to get up and look.
             | Unlikely he could see the extent of damage from his seat.
             | And as noted, on final approach, he doesn't have time for
             | much to change plans. Even if he knew the extent of the
             | damage, the choices are roughly the same - land as planned,
             | or go around.
             | 
             | That said, he did exactly what he should. Aviate, navigate,
             | communicate. He controlled the plane, made a decision, and
             | communicated that to ATC. Well done.
        
             | Aeolun wrote:
             | I think it's amazing planes can fly sort of straight with
             | only one engine providing thrust though.
        
               | throwaway0a5e wrote:
               | He was on final. The engine was providing little more
               | than idle thrust. If he were taking off some serious
               | rudder input would have been required.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | ... and that rudder input would have put additional
               | stress on the weakened fuselage.
        
               | ertemplin wrote:
               | Engine failure is the most important thing you are
               | trained for when you transition from flying single-engine
               | airplanes to multi-engine.
               | 
               | Most multi-engine airplanes can even take-off and climb
               | with only a single engine functioning. You would never do
               | it intentionally, but sometimes engines fail shortly
               | after takeoff when you are 50 feet above the runway.
        
           | phkahler wrote:
           | >> The pilot is speaking about failed engine after the
           | collision, like it is nothing. Fascinating. I'd be shouting
           | something obscene in such a situation. For half an hour at
           | least, I think.
           | 
           | When you get your medical clearance, one of the things they
           | look for is signs of psychological issues or instability. Not
           | saying that's you, and I bet you'd do better than you think.
           | Pilot training also IMHO makes you better at that stuff.
        
           | throwaway0a5e wrote:
           | When people encounter emergency situations in domains they
           | are familiar with they tend to do a pretty good job of
           | rolling with it.
        
             | lbriner wrote:
             | Exactly. You either panic and run around screaming and then
             | you die or you could try and take control and you might
             | live. It's no different than most of us driving a car. If a
             | tyre blows out, most of us wouldn't scream and close our
             | eyes, we would try and steer to safety.
        
               | ordu wrote:
               | _> You either panic and run around screaming and then you
               | die or you could try and take control and you might
               | live._
               | 
               | It is not so black and white. One might (and normal
               | person should) feel a stress reaction with rising levels
               | adrenaline and suchlike in his bloodstream, and it is
               | normal, it might even be beneficial, if one was trained
               | to benefit from this mind state. I become more resolute
               | from this, more concentrated than usual, sometimes even
               | more concentrated than it is good for me because I might
               | miss some important detail.
               | 
               |  _> If a tyre blows out, most of us wouldn 't scream and
               | close our eyes, we would try and steer to safety._
               | 
               | I never was in this situation with a blown tyre, but I
               | was in some other situations when there was a danger to
               | my life (or I believed that it was) I become extremely
               | concentrated, almost silent (except for occasional
               | curses), but when I needed to communicate, I did it
               | loudly and with a good deal of swearing. I think that
               | communication for me in these situations is like a
               | distracting hindrance, so if I need to do it, I'll do it
               | in a way that will make it unnecessary to repeat it.
               | 
               | The communication of the pilot have not a hint of his
               | emotions. My mind was blown not because of his perfect
               | actions (I expect perfect actions from a professional),
               | not even because the lack of swearing. It is the tone of
               | his voice, it is completely composed, almost relaxed. I
               | can imagine myself in this situation restraining from
               | shouting and from swearing, but my emotional tension
               | would leak through my voice, I wouldn't even try to hide
               | it.
        
       | xattt wrote:
       | It's amazing there were no casualties. The novelty of the report
       | is the use of a rescue parachute by the Cirrus plane.
        
       | schoen wrote:
       | I remember seeing some Internet post a couple of decades ago
       | where someone asserted that the goal of ATC was to prevent midair
       | collisions and that U.S. ATC had met this goal _perfectly_ , with
       | no midair collisions between aircraft that were under the control
       | of ATC at the time.
       | 
       | I think the claim was qualified in some way like "collision
       | between civilian flights that were both flying an ATC-assigned
       | clearance at the time". (So some kinds of flights and some kinds
       | of airspace don't require ATC clearance, and if one of them were
       | involved in a collision, it wouldn't be ATC's responsibility, in
       | some sense.)
       | 
       | My question at the moment is: is this claim plausible if you
       | qualify or restrict it enough? Do you have to tack on additional
       | conditions?
       | 
       | Is there any useful sense in which this collision was a first for
       | U.S. aviation history?
        
         | mlac wrote:
         | > "The Cirrus descended through 6400 feet about 3nm north of
         | the threshold of runway 17R, but overshot the centerlines of
         | both runways 17R and 17L"
         | 
         | It looks like the Cirrus wasn't flying to what the ATC
         | cleared...
        
       | _s wrote:
       | Private Pilot here - just thought I'd chime in quickly;
       | 
       | Many aviation enthusiasts / pilots first go to is to have a look
       | at the flight data - usually available on FlightAware /
       | FlightRadar24 and a few other websites, plus LiveATC usually can
       | provide recordings of the flights communications to towers as
       | well. We should refrain from using just those data points to draw
       | conclusions to the cause; the NTSB (and other orgs) will perform
       | an investigation and the report will be made public (both
       | interim, and final ones), and changes are almost always made to
       | processes / systems, and often to the virtual or physical items
       | that led to this incident.
       | 
       | There are a few more photos and insights from various folks that
       | were there at the time and captured a few moments on the reddit
       | thread here:
       | 
       | https://www.reddit.com/r/flying/comments/nauck8/mid_air_just...
       | 
       | Note - it's incredibly rare for a midair not to result in
       | fatalities so an incredible amount of luck all around.
        
         | sokoloff wrote:
         | It's not incredibly rare. Around 2 in 5 midair mishaps result
         | in no fatalities.
         | 
         | https://iflyamerica.org/midairs.asp
         | 
         | This one was incredibly lucky, especially for the Key Lime
         | aircraft.
        
           | lbriner wrote:
           | My guess would be that only in the worst scenarios does a
           | collision involve a full-impact. In most cases I would expect
           | either or both pilots to be taking avoiding action so that
           | you might get some more minor scrapes which allow you to limp
           | home.
        
           | mannykannot wrote:
           | Interesting - that's higher than I would have expected, but
           | apparently explaind by most collisions being in the pattern
           | or otherwise near an airport (makes sense now that I think
           | about it.) At least in the pattern, for most of the time,
           | everyone is going in approximately the same direction (even
           | this case.)
        
         | sundvor wrote:
         | Thanks, that does seem incredibly lucky indeed.
         | 
         | Also, I like the headline including "all parties ok".
        
       | nitrogen wrote:
       | No injuries reported. Kind of fascinating to read.
        
       | ardit33 wrote:
       | Spoiler: No one died, so it has a happy ending
        
       | martyvis wrote:
       | As always, Juan Browne has great reporting and analysis of this
       | incident https://youtu.be/_Ph7OR6C90w
        
       | nickcw wrote:
       | Just in case anyone (like me) is thinking - wait did that
       | aeroplane have a parachute?
       | 
       | From:
       | 
       | https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cirrus_Airframe_Parachute_Sy...
       | 
       | The Cirrus Airframe Parachute System (CAPS) is a whole-plane
       | ballistic parachute recovery system designed specifically for
       | Cirrus Aircraft's line of general aviation light aircraft
       | including the SR20, SR22 and SF50. The design became the first of
       | its kind to become certified with the FAA, achieving
       | certification in October 1998, and as of 2014 was the only
       | aircraft ballistic parachute used as standard equipment by an
       | aviation company.
        
         | shadowgovt wrote:
         | I remember when these were being tested. Some of the testing
         | was done at the NASA Langley center, which still today
         | specializes in airframes in addition to space... They have a
         | whole-airframe catapult and drop system.
         | 
         | These parachutes have been an absolute game-changer for small
         | aircraft pilot survival. It's unlikely this kind of collision
         | would have been survivable for the small-plane pilot 25 years
         | ago.
        
         | JohnJamesRambo wrote:
         | Thank you, I was so confused. I was thinking the pilot a genius
         | for bringing and activating a parachute. Now I see it was just
         | great design.
         | 
         | > As of 1 May 2021, CAPS had been activated 122 times, 101 of
         | which saw successful parachute deployment. In those successful
         | deployments, there were 207 survivors and 1 fatality. No
         | fatalities had occurred when the parachute was deployed within
         | the certified speed and altitude parameters
        
           | ssully wrote:
           | For those curious about seeing it in action:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gBCUQlF3MMU
        
           | captainredbeard wrote:
           | It's a "marquee feature" of buying a Cirrus, he didn't just
           | wake up and pack a chute
        
           | londons_explore wrote:
           | They are some impressive numbers, but to really compare you
           | need an expert looking at each situation and estimating the
           | likely outcome had the CAPS system not been installed.
        
             | selectodude wrote:
             | Most GA pilots are awful so it's a pretty safe bet that
             | CAPS saved lives.
        
           | jmpman wrote:
           | 21 of 122 failed? That's a concerning statistic. I'd expect
           | closer to 99% success, not 82%. How many fatalities when the
           | parachute failed to deploy? 100%? If so, then you have almost
           | a 1/5 chance of dying when you engage the parachute?
        
             | sio8ohPi wrote:
             | Cirrus has a list of deployment events on their site. The
             | failures mostly appear to be cases where the parachute was
             | deployed too low.
             | 
             | https://www.cirruspilots.org/Safety/CAPS-Event-History?id=3
        
             | jessriedel wrote:
             | If the pilot flies into terrible weather or gets into an
             | uncontrolled spin, it's not reasonable to expect the chute
             | to deploy correctly and save the situation.
        
             | opwieurposiu wrote:
             | It's not 100%. In one of the flying mags you can read a
             | story about how a VFR (not instrument rated) pilot got into
             | the soup, lost attitude awareness, freaked out and pulled
             | the chute lever. Nothing happens. While the pilot was
             | yanking on the chute lever, taking hands off the stick let
             | the aircraft's static stability take over and the plane
             | flew out of the cloud by itself. The pilot then took over
             | and landed in the usual manner.
        
             | bananabreakfast wrote:
             | That is not a correct interpretation of that statistic.
             | 
             | The parachute has never "failed" in any engineering sense.
             | The stat is taking into account all deployments, including
             | those well outside of the deployment envelope, such as not
             | enough altitude or too much velocity. No one can expect any
             | parachute to deploy if you're too close to the ground.
             | 
             | Within the envelope of deployment, the statistic says it
             | has a 100% success rate.
        
             | stevehawk wrote:
             | the chute has deployment parameters (altitude, airspeed of
             | plane, etc) that aren't always met by the pilot in an
             | emergency.
        
         | maweki wrote:
         | I was wondering whether there was a mix-up in the crew count,
         | as one pilot with a parachute saves two people and a one-person
         | crew lands the plane.
         | 
         | This mostly clears it up.
        
           | Grustaf wrote:
           | My less charitable reading was that the pilot abandoned the
           | Cirrus on a parachute, but then it seemed like the plane
           | landed...
        
             | maweki wrote:
             | That's exactly what I wondered about. How one parachute and
             | two crew can lead everybody uninjured.
        
             | tialaramex wrote:
             | Pilots of planes with CAPS are (now) taught to pull the
             | chute if anything goes wrong inside the profile (low enough
             | speed, far enough above ground) where the chute is designed
             | to work. The aeroplane is insured, you can buy a new one.
             | Even if the pilot and all passengers are insured you can't
             | buy new ones.
             | 
             | They changed this because it turns out that the same
             | phenomenon that leads to private pilots taking undue risks
             | in the rest of flight ("Get-there-itis") also makes them
             | reluctant to pull the chute even when it's clearly their
             | best option. Pilots who clearly couldn't reach a safe
             | landing spot, yet had working CAPS would dig themselves
             | (and their passengers) a grave rather than just pull the
             | handle. So teaching them to _start_ by assuming they 'll
             | pull the chute and only then considering whether there are
             | other options reduces the fatality rate.
        
               | elliekelly wrote:
               | I'm not really sure how to ask what I want to ask, so
               | apologies if this doesn't make sense: Does the parachute
               | only work if the plane is in a free fall? If the plane is
               | gliding along and suddenly the engine goes out, for
               | example, would pulling the chute work?
        
               | captainredbeard wrote:
               | Well you wouldn't pull the chute. The plane has lift when
               | it has forward motion at a non stalling angle of attack.
               | It would become a glider until reaching stall speed
        
               | tialaramex wrote:
               | No, you should probably pull the chute.
               | 
               | Yes you're gliding right now, but whilst that's better
               | than just falling uncontrolled from the sky it's no
               | guarantee you'll walk away.
               | 
               | Now if you're gliding... right towards a perfectly nice
               | runway you were already lined up on then CAPS is likely
               | the wrong call, not least because you may already be too
               | low. But if you're just in the middle of nowhere then
               | CAPS is much safer than hoping that's just a big empty
               | grassy meadow you see ahead and doesn't have a thin,
               | wheel-snagging ditch, or a barbed wire fence, or a dozen
               | other obstacles that you wouldn't see until it's too
               | late.
               | 
               | Even for a water landing, if you have never practised
               | there are a lot of ways for putting a conventional plane
               | down in the water to go badly, including flipping or
               | breaking up the plane, whereas CAPS should just plonk you
               | in the water, relatively gently, right side up, not
               | _great_ news, but very survivable.
        
               | jrockway wrote:
               | Here's an analysis of the CAPS system's safety record:
               | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zT58pzY41wA (contains
               | some good footage of an SR22 parachuting into the ocean,
               | and into the ground).
               | 
               | This is a good overview on the survivability of water
               | landings: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LwGYBBhTss. I
               | haven't watched the video recently but I think even a 172
               | that cartwheels after landing has a pretty good
               | survivability rate, something like 90%. Parachute is a
               | nice to have, of course.
        
               | tialaramex wrote:
               | Paul Bertorelli is a lot of fun, I have seen those videos
               | a while back. I enjoy his "cheap pilot bastard" attitude
               | to things even if maybe I don't agree with it.
        
               | throw0101a wrote:
               | There is a maximum speed that the system can handle:
               | 
               | > _Four CAPS deployments occurred successfully at higher
               | speeds, 168, 171, 187 and 190 knots indicated airspeed,
               | and one deployment failed at an airspeed estimated at
               | over 300 knots airspeed._
               | 
               | * https://www.cirruspilots.org/Safety/What-Is-CAPS
               | 
               | Anything lower than that will forward-motion stop the
               | aircraft. AFAICT, there is a need for 2000' (650m) of
               | altitude above the ground for the system to deploy in
               | time to be useful (slow descent).
        
               | captainredbeard wrote:
               | Even then, they recommend pulling the chute anyway
               | because it can reduce velocity if it's still above
               | nominal "touchdown" speed
        
         | alister wrote:
         | What are the problems with making such a system for large
         | passenger aircraft (perhaps with multiple parachutes)?
        
           | gecko wrote:
           | The drastically higher speeds involved (250-300 knots
           | airspeed, as opposed to more like 50-90 knots for GA
           | aircraft), combined with drastically higher weights (think
           | about the chutes needed for something like Apollo, which is
           | nowhere near the size of a large passenger aircraft, and
           | realize you need way more) would both be major issues.
           | There's also the simple fact that larger passenger aircraft
           | tend not to fail this way, making it less likely such a
           | system would help even if it existed.
        
           | morcheeba wrote:
           | I'll add on to the good points other have made here - smaller
           | planes tend to fly out of small airports in the suburbs or
           | the countryside. Larger planes fly out of much more urban
           | areas, where there are a lot more obstacles, making a safe
           | landing less probable.
        
           | MauranKilom wrote:
           | I would expect the problem to be "mass goes up with size
           | cubed, while parachute drag only goes up with size squared".
           | I.e. you need a disproportionately larger chute (or more of
           | them) for large aircraft. Those are dead weight in normal
           | operation, which really hurts the economics.
        
           | mikepurvis wrote:
           | The sibling comments make some of the same arguments, but
           | here's an article which also addresses it:
           | 
           | "An aircraft is most vulnerable during take-off and landing
           | because it is closer to the ground (its biggest obstacle),
           | and is travelling at low speeds and therefore is harder to
           | manoeuvre. According to statistics from Boeing, almost three-
           | quarters of deaths from plane crashes between 2005 and 2014
           | occurred during these phases of flight. But this is the time
           | when a detachable cabin would least likely be successful at
           | saving lives. Being closer to the ground would give the pilot
           | much less opportunity to jettison the cabin following an
           | incident and if it were detached it could well land in a
           | built-up area."
           | 
           | https://theconversation.com/why-a-detachable-cabin-
           | probably-...
        
           | marcinzm wrote:
           | To add to another comment larger planes have much better
           | redundancy (multiple engines, multiple control lines,
           | multiple pilots, etc.) so the situations where a parachute
           | would help are much much fewer. So weight is probably better
           | spent on making the redundant systems even more redundant
           | than anything else.
        
         | jonplackett wrote:
         | I don't know why this blew my mind so much, but it did.
        
         | dmix wrote:
         | > The device is attributed with saving over 200 lives to date.
         | 
         | https://www.cirruspilots.org/Safety/CAPS-Event-History
        
           | sokoloff wrote:
           | That particular phrasing and calculation, suggesting that
           | every chute deployment without fatalities represents that
           | number of people "saved" is quite controversial and IMO not
           | supported by an analysis of the data.
           | 
           | I think it's great that the system exists, it has undoubtedly
           | saved lives, but unless Cirrus crashes are overwhelmingly
           | fatal compared to other airplanes, it's overstating "fatal
           | accidents turned into non-fatal accidents" by likely a factor
           | of ~3 and number of fatalities avoided by ~4.
           | 
           | This type of mishap is probably the best scenario for a
           | chute, though. I have no illusions that following a mid-air
           | that I am still a strong favorite to bring my non-chute
           | airplane to earth without fatalities. (The stats say I'm
           | about a 60:40 favorite to do so.)
           | 
           | CAPS saves lives. CAPS has not saved the lives of every
           | person who survived a CAPS deployment, because most of those
           | would have survived anyway. In most off-airport arrival
           | scenarios, I'd be wishing to have a chute.
           | 
           | * - One of my instructors was in command for CAPS Event #46
        
             | mlyle wrote:
             | > . I have no illusions that following a mid-air that I am
             | still a strong favorite to bring my non-chute airplane to
             | earth without fatalities. (The stats say I'm about a 60:40
             | favorite to do so.)
             | 
             | Note this was a midair with a much larger, faster aircraft
             | and at an unfavorable aspect. The empennage was sliced
             | nearly entirely through by the other aircraft's propeller
             | and the elevator/horizontal stabilizer is deflected into a
             | position commanding a steep dive.
        
             | mannykannot wrote:
             | I completely agree, but for a more complete analysis, we
             | would have to consider the fatality rate for the sort of
             | crashes in which CAPS is employed.
             | 
             | IIRC, Cirrus is now encouraging pilots to use CAPS in any
             | engine failure with sufficient altitude for it to work, on
             | account of the number of such accidents, in CAPS-equipped
             | aircraft, where the pilot chose not to use it, and someone
             | aboard was killed or seriously injured. This will
             | presumably further muddy the used/saved ratio, while
             | probably increasing the total number of saved.
             | 
             | In a collision situation, at least one as violent as this
             | one, you can't be sure whether some vital control or
             | structure has been damaged to the point where it is about
             | to fail, so using a parachute of any sort, where feasible,
             | seems to be the rational choice.
             | 
             | Quite by accident, I came across this pucker-inducing
             | article a couple of days ago, where thre's little doubt
             | that bailing out, if it were an option, would have been the
             | right thing to do, even though this flight ended safely in
             | this case.
             | 
             | https://airfactsjournal.com/2019/03/student-flight-
             | control-j...
             | 
             | (On second thoughts, if the pilot had a parachute, he could
             | have attempted to free up the controls without making his
             | situation any worse.)
        
               | elliekelly wrote:
               | Are there any fees associated with an emergency landing
               | like that? I imagine La Guardia runways are in pretty
               | high demand but pilots have a culture that prioritizes
               | safety above all else so I'd be curious which takes
               | precedence.
        
               | mannykannot wrote:
               | Tangentially, one reason why Cirrus has been persuading
               | pilots to use CAPS as soon as they get into difficulties
               | is because it was suspected that pilots often chose not
               | to do so (or delay until too late) because it was widely
               | believed (and is true in most cases) that doing so totals
               | the airplane - i.e. an economic disincentive to put
               | safety first.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | There are no emergency-specific fees. Whether Newark (I
               | think it was EWR, not LGA) would assess a normal landing
               | fee is probably not a consideration for the pilot,
               | especially back then.
               | 
               | Landing fees are quite reasonable. Off peak, the landing
               | fee would be $25 now. On peak, it would be $125.
               | 
               | https://www.panynj.gov/content/dam/airports/pdfs/schedule
               | ofc...
        
               | elliekelly wrote:
               | Wow that's surprisingly low! I was imagining the fee was
               | thousands of dollars.
        
               | maigret wrote:
               | It depends on your aircraft weight basically
        
               | TylerE wrote:
               | Where they'll get you (for normal operations) is things
               | like parking fees. At Newark, for an aircraft less than
               | 100,000lbs that is $45/8 hrs.
        
           | akouri wrote:
           | The SR-22 also cannot recover from a spin. I would assume
           | most of those deployments are from out of control spins. I am
           | not sure the parachute system can be credited for saving more
           | lives than a similar plane not-equipped, because the Cirrus
           | _needed_ that parachute system in order to be certified.
        
             | sokoloff wrote:
             | > The SR-22 also cannot recover from a spin.
             | 
             | The SR-22 can recover from a spin, using conventional anti-
             | spin control inputs. EASA testing showed that.
             | 
             | It is true that Cirrus secured an "equivalent level of
             | safety" ruling during FAA certification and so _did not
             | demonstrate_ conforming spin recovery in flight testing
             | here, but it can recover.
        
         | Aeolun wrote:
         | Ah, that's why I only read about one parachute for two
         | passengers :D
        
         | t0mas88 wrote:
         | The more generic system is called BRS, Ballistic Recovery
         | Systems. They deliver this as an option for many small aircraft
         | and it's popular for experimental / home built aircraft.
         | 
         | One downside of the systems is that they typically have a
         | maximum lifespan of 10 years while airframes last 50+ years. So
         | every 10 years there is a large maintenance cost to
         | replace/renew the parachute system. Much less an issue for a $
         | 800k Cirrus SR22 (like the one in this incident) than for a $
         | 30k old Cessna.
        
           | cookguyruffles wrote:
           | Am I correct in saying after one usage, the parachute system
           | generally needs replaced? I think I read this about Cirrus
           | planes anyway
        
             | bbojan wrote:
             | I believe the whole airplane needs to be replaced after BRS
             | use.
        
               | mc32 wrote:
               | Not necessarily. Frames can be repaired. Frame repairs
               | and overhauls are common. If the damage is too extensive
               | and expensive then you use it for parts.
        
               | ahartmetz wrote:
               | It may sound pointless unless you consider that the pilot
               | will not need to be replaced.
        
               | Leherenn wrote:
               | There's the issue that in many cases people tried to save
               | the airframe rather than activate the parachute, knowing
               | the aircraft was likely to be written off, and died doing
               | so. It the same when the pilot is equipped with a
               | parachute.
        
               | sokoloff wrote:
               | This is indeed the early experience with BRS, which has
               | been substantially addressed via training which started
               | with some complex scenario-based messaging and later
               | evolved to a more simplified "pull early, pull often"
               | which has resulted in a bias in a better direction for
               | human safety.
        
               | MaxBarraclough wrote:
               | What's the risk to the people below?
               | 
               | I'm reminded of a 2011 airshow crash of a _Red Arrows_ T1
               | jet which, at least according to this account, [0] may
               | have involved the pilot heroically making the decision
               | not to personally eject, but to crash the aircraft away
               | from crowded areas, perishing as a result. Of course, the
               | aircraft itself had no parachute, unlike a Cirrus. (Also,
               | I 'm uncertain if that account of the incident is
               | consistent with later investigation. The relevant quote
               | is not from any investigation, but from a politician.)
               | 
               | [0] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-dorset-14838982
        
               | cameldrv wrote:
               | There's a huge difference in the danger to those on the
               | ground between an 15000 lb fighter jet going hundreds of
               | mph and a small 3000 lb airplane descending at about 15
               | mph (plus the wind speed).
               | 
               | It's possible that the Cirrus could hurt or kill someone
               | but I don't think it's happened in the about 100
               | parachute activations so far.
        
               | MaxBarraclough wrote:
               | > There's a huge difference
               | 
               | Of course there is, that's the reason I emphasised it.
               | 
               | > I don't think it's happened in the about 100 parachute
               | activations so far
               | 
               | That's good, although there could be a selection effect
               | there: pilots might be more hesitant to deploy it if they
               | think the falling aircraft could do harm.
        
               | EricE wrote:
               | >What's the risk to the people below?
               | 
               | A lot less than from a plane traveling at terminal
               | velocity!
        
               | agloeregrets wrote:
               | I mean, would you rather the plane crash at 30mph at a
               | chosen point or at 200mph wherever it leads?
        
               | toss1 wrote:
               | Yes, and this happens also in many other arenas. I've
               | only done a bit of flying, but in my experience in speed
               | sports such as Downhill ski racing and auto racing, you
               | must be mentally able to switch your goals in a fraction
               | of a second, from [win the race] to [save the run] to
               | [save your life], without hesitation.
               | 
               | Sometimes you succeed in [save your life] and are still
               | on-track / on-piste pointing in the right direction and
               | are back to [win the race] in the space of a few seconds.
               | Other times, you are on the sidelines, and hopefully not
               | on the way to the field clinic.
               | 
               | But the switch in perspective must fully committed and
               | absolutely not include [save the equipment], which is
               | replaceable, even custom one-off gear. Anything else is
               | over-constraining the problem and inviting disaster.
        
               | karlkatzke wrote:
               | At the point a pilot is considering declaring an
               | emergency, they should do so. Once they have declared an
               | emergency, the insurance company owns the airplane, and
               | the pilot should be focused on preserving as many lives
               | as possible. This is as true for a mechanical emergency
               | like a gear up landing as it is for every other kind of
               | emergency.
        
               | thesh4d0w wrote:
               | That's assuming you have in motion insurance on your
               | aircraft. I don't on my 152, the plane is worth so little
               | we'd cover the airframe cost in 7 years of insurance
               | payments.
        
               | nopzor wrote:
               | yes, i think the way i've heard it pitched is that
               | deploying the parachute will result in "a bad day for the
               | insurance company, and a great day for the pilots and
               | passengers"
        
               | miked85 wrote:
               | > _Cirrus originally thought that the airframe would be
               | damaged beyond repair on ground-impact, but the first
               | aircraft to deploy (N1223S) landed in mesquite and was
               | not badly damaged._ [1]
               | 
               | [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cirrus_Airframe_Parachu
               | te_Syst...
        
               | stevehawk wrote:
               | they're almost always totaled by the insurance company.
               | Easier than risking that they missed a hairline fracture
               | somewhere and have the plane go down again.
        
             | AdrianB1 wrote:
             | Yes. The parachute has a pyrotechnic deployment mechanism
             | that is consumed; I never saw a BRS sold in separate
             | components, so you need to replace the entire package. The
             | 10 year shelf life is coming from the pyrotechnic charge
             | and the parachute material, they both age.
        
               | fnordfnordfnord wrote:
               | You can buy the components separately but they won't
               | usually be certified so that's only useful for EAA types
               | and people like Mike Patey.
        
             | jaywalk wrote:
             | The parachute system will need to be completely replaced
             | after usage no matter what. Activating the parachute
             | involves firing a small rocket motor to pull it out
             | quickly.
        
             | [deleted]
        
       | vertis wrote:
       | This[0] youtube video has good explanation with the air traffic
       | control audio. The metroliner pilot was cool as a cucumber after
       | being hit.
       | 
       | [0]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ph7OR6C90w
        
         | throw0101a wrote:
         | See also VASAviation's recreation of radar plot, which is
         | referenced in the above video:
         | 
         | * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5tb2dVWJqc
        
       | HHalvi wrote:
       | I felt erilly familiar with the details of this accident after
       | reading the details. I dug up my browsing history and realized I
       | watched the ATC exchange of this very collision yesterday not
       | realizing that this had happened the very same day the video was
       | uploaded[0]. Also props to the Cirrus Airframe Parachute System
       | (CAPS), hope this gets implemented in more smaller (or homemade)
       | aircrafts.
       | 
       | [0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f5tb2dVWJqc
        
       | throwawaygimp wrote:
       | @dang "Mid air just north of KAPA- all parties OK" is the more
       | appropriate headline on reddit.
       | 
       | As an aviator my stress levels are only just coming down now from
       | seeing this headline and clicking expecting there to be deaths.
        
         | Grustaf wrote:
         | What is KAPA and do people know what it means?
        
           | mnw21cam wrote:
           | It's the code for the particular airport they were about to
           | land at. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centennial_Airport
        
           | t0mas88 wrote:
           | The ICAO airport code as used for navigation. They're
           | different from the IATA 3 letter codes that most passengers
           | know. US airports start with K, European with E (e.g. EF for
           | Europe-France).
           | 
           | Often for large airports the code is very similar to the IATA
           | code for passengers, e.g. KJFK for JFK and KSFO for San
           | Francisco. But not always, as in EGLL for London Heathrow
           | which is LHR in passenger codes.
        
             | papercrane wrote:
             | > European with E (e.g. EF for Europe-France).
             | 
             | EF is Finland actually. The first letter is region code,
             | and Europe is divided into multiple regions. Northern
             | Europe is E, Southern Europe is mostly L (so France is LF).
             | 
             | Wikipedia has a nice map showing the different boundarys on
             | it's ICAO airport codes page.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ICAO_airport_code#/media/File
             | :...
        
               | t0mas88 wrote:
               | Haha sorry, you're right bad example.
        
             | NovemberWhiskey wrote:
             | > _US airports start with K_
             | 
             | ICAO-registered U.S. airports in the contiguous 48 states
             | start with a K. Alaskan and Hawaiian airports start with a
             | P and other U.S. territories get other different initial
             | letters depending on their region (e.g. TJ for Puerto Rico
             | or NS for American Samoa).
        
             | Denvercoder9 wrote:
             | _> Often for large airports the code is very similar to the
             | IATA code for passengers_
             | 
             | This is mostly only the case in the United States, since it
             | has a single-letter K prefix, so they can append the
             | 3-letter IATA code to make a valid 4-letter ICAO code. In
             | the rest of the world the second letter of the ICAO code is
             | used to designate countries, so the 3-letter IATA code
             | cannot be appended.
        
           | tialaramex wrote:
           | KAPA is the code for Centennial Airport in Denver. It's
           | likely many US pilots would either know what that is or be
           | trivially able to look it up, non-pilots not so much.
        
       | FabHK wrote:
       | I wonder how many mid air collisions we would expect to see if
       | see-and-avoid where entirely ineffectual, or pilots would not
       | look outside ever except to land. I have the impression the
       | accident numbers would not be much worse than they are.
       | 
       | In other words, my hypothesis is that the fact that there are few
       | mid-airs is owed to ATC, technology (TCAS, TAS) and "big sky",
       | rather than vigilant pilots.
        
         | ericpauley wrote:
         | Agreed. It can be hard to spot traffic even if you know where
         | the other plane is! With this in mind ADS-B/TIS-B seems like
         | such an essential tool for GA pilots.
        
       | shockeychap wrote:
       | The picture of the Metroliner reminds me of the Aloha Airlines
       | incident.
       | 
       | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aloha_Airlines_Flight_243
       | 
       | It's amazing that the hull can survive in the air for any time
       | with that much torn away.
        
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