[HN Gopher] SpaceX launches Starlink sats in record 10th liftoff...
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       SpaceX launches Starlink sats in record 10th liftoff, landing of
       reused rocket
        
       Author : _Microft
       Score  : 75 points
       Date   : 2021-05-09 18:39 UTC (4 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.space.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.space.com)
        
       | aurizon wrote:
       | It is quite apparent that the NASA/Government space industry has
       | milked the public for 50+ years. We could have had re-useable
       | first and higher stages decades ago. Then along came Spacex and
       | revealed this scandal.
        
         | internetslave wrote:
         | Yup. Now apply the same thinking to the rest of government
        
         | shadowgovt wrote:
         | I don't think I'd frame it that way.
         | 
         | SpaceX is taking advantage of technologies that weren't
         | available until recently. Of course, now that they are
         | available, we should see SpaceX's competition adopting them.
        
           | pfdietz wrote:
           | Something very much like an expendable F9 could have been
           | made decades ago. Simply evolving the Saturn 1B might have
           | done it. But no, Nixon needed pork in California to ensure
           | his reelection.
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | > Something very much like an expendable F9 could have been
             | made decades ago.
             | 
             | We've made non-reusable rockets for quite some time pre-F9.
        
             | bodhiandphysics wrote:
             | Not really. Falcon 9 is more sophisticated than it looks at
             | first glance. Merlin has extremely high performance when
             | compared to earlier gas generators... it has a t/w of 200
             | compared to the ra-27s 100 or the f-1s 95. The alluminum
             | lithium alloys that give the rocket such a low dry mass
             | date from the 90s. The avionics in falcon are
             | revolutionary, and couldn't have been possible before the
             | early 2000s... a lot of little things like that.
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | That's why I said "evolving". Making engines better,
               | introducing FSW when it was introduced, and so on. The
               | F9-like boosters that could have been made around 1972
               | would still have been much better than the shuttle turned
               | out to be.
               | 
               | What one should object to in this scenario is the idea
               | that the conventional aerospace companies, and NASA,
               | would have done anything like this, when their internal
               | incentive structures pushed them away from it.
        
               | bodhiandphysics wrote:
               | We did build an f-9 like booster around the time of the
               | shuttle, the delta ii. It doesn't compare to falcon.
               | Neither does Antares, built at the same time as the f-9
        
               | pfdietz wrote:
               | Delta-II was not a F9-class launcher. The first stage
               | thrust (ignoring strapons, which one should because F9
               | doesn't use them) was less than 1/7th that of the F9. A
               | closer match was the Saturn IB.
        
               | bodhiandphysics wrote:
               | Delta ii was designed around boosters! Also when falcon 9
               | was developed its target payload was ten tons to Leo,
               | similar to delta ii's 8
        
         | low_common wrote:
         | Wait, what?
        
           | credit_guy wrote:
           | I think what the GP is trying to say is that reusable rockets
           | had been known and built by NASA 50 years ago. More
           | precisely, the Moon lander was just such a rocket that was
           | able to land and then to lift off, albeit on the Moon, not on
           | Earth. But the concept was there, it was just a matter of
           | scaling it up.
           | 
           | By the way, I don't personally buy this argument, but it's
           | not completely meaningless either.
        
             | ceejayoz wrote:
             | The moon lander wasn't really reusable, though. It was a
             | two stage disposable rocket that happened to hang out
             | somewhere during the interstage period. Calling it
             | "reusable" is like calling the Apollo capsules reusable
             | because they go up, then down.
             | 
             | SpaceX benefits enormously from fast computers, advances in
             | metallurgy, CAD, etc.
        
             | hwillis wrote:
             | They may also be referring to the McDonnell Douglas DC-X.
             | It flew and landed itself in 1996, but it was heavily based
             | on the 1967 Douglas SASSTO.
             | 
             | Neither project was government funded or ordered. There's
             | no particular reason to think it could have even been built
             | in 1967, and even in 1996 it may not have been possible to
             | land a rocket after reentry. Coming in backwards at
             | supersonic speed is incredibly challenging. Flipping around
             | would have been even more so. Transitioning from supersonic
             | to subsonic would have been a total guess. The DC-X
             | certainly could not have done any of those things.
             | 
             | The OP may also not understand the incredible gulf in
             | difficulty between landing a suborbital rocket and a real
             | first stage. A suborbital rocket doesn't weigh that much
             | more going up than it does going down. The F9 first stage
             | weighs less than 5% of what it has to lift on the way up.
             | Getting a rocket to output 25% thrust is easy; use four
             | engines and turn off 3. You can't just turn off 19 engines;
             | the F9 first stage is huge and needs huge power swings to
             | remain stable.
             | 
             | SpaceX built custom sparse voxel GPU solvers to design
             | around combustion instabilities and supersonic flows around
             | the rocket. Even in the 90s they would have had to make
             | huge concessions for the sake of running 20+ engines at
             | once. There's absolutely zero chance they could have done
             | it in the 60s or 70s.
        
         | davidaa wrote:
         | Let's not oversimplify or cast blame. Sure, most/all of the
         | tech has been around for decades - although Lars Blackmore &
         | the other controls engineers did original work that was
         | arguably absolutely critical - but there hasn't been any
         | milking going on. The most profitable route wouldv'e been to
         | develop this tech & then use it, after all. [Case in point:
         | SpaceX, of course.] There simply wasn't enough interest from
         | the public or Congress to put enough R&D money into any number
         | of cool programs to see them through to commercialization.
        
           | wolf550e wrote:
           | Boeing and Lockheed Martin, separately and together under the
           | name of ULA, and Northrop Grumman (as Morton Thiokol, ATK,
           | Orbital ATK and now NGIS) have been milking the taxpayer for
           | decades. Their business plan always involved making
           | everything take longer and be more expensive. That is what
           | they have to do to make more money, because they work on
           | "cost plus" contracts.
           | 
           | An engineer in any one of them who presented a way to make
           | the rocket cheaper to his boss would have been fired for not
           | understanding how the company makes money.
           | 
           | The oversight is supposed to be done by congress, but they
           | are extremely happy to provide good paying jobs in their
           | districts, for decades.
           | 
           | No one even really hides it anymore. Any official, when asked
           | about something like SLS and costs, would answer with "But
           | NASA is going to the moon! Don't you want America to go to
           | the moon?!" and with "tens of thousands of high paying jobs
           | in all 50 states". There is no attempt to say the rising year
           | over year price of orbital launch (before SpaceX), the
           | exorbitant price of SLS + Orion, the use of solid boosters
           | for crewed launches, etc, make any sense except to support
           | the existing contractors to the detriment of the tax payer
           | and space exploration.
           | 
           | See a NASA insider explaining:
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g3gzwMJWa5w&t=463s
           | 
           | (Or see anything by Dr. Robert Zubrin, or see the story of
           | how the shuttle derived design that lost to RAC-2 (a Saturn V
           | like design) was chosen to be "SLS":
           | https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZNZx208bw0g&t=1970s)
        
         | 0x000000E2 wrote:
         | NASA nah, they transitioned to third party launch providers
         | many years ago. They like making space vehicles more than
         | rockets. The SLS, yes, that's a classic pork project.
         | 
         | ULA is the real problem. The government allowed all the launch
         | providers to merge into one with no domestic competition. Think
         | space Comcast. Other countries allowed the same. Nobody
         | innovated for decades. Russia and US ULA are flying rockets
         | from 50 years ago with minimal updates.
        
           | tehbeard wrote:
           | > Russia and US ULA are flying rockets from 50 years ago with
           | minimal updates.
           | 
           | Old Babushka proverb, if complicated explosion related
           | plumbing is working as intended, best not to completely
           | rework it for sake of changelog.
           | 
           | Minimal updates to the shape, maybe?
           | 
           | But I bet the electronics and manufacturing have seen steady
           | improvements over that time.
           | 
           | SLS does feel quite like a pork barrel, but I understand the
           | funding of it along with the other commercial companies as
           | "more options, less risk", if something grounds the Dragon
           | capsules, having a "home" alternative instead of buying seats
           | on a foreign rocket makes sense.
        
             | 0x000000E2 wrote:
             | > Old Babushka proverb, if complicated explosion related
             | plumbing is working as intended, best not to completely
             | rework it for sake of changelog.
             | 
             | Aye, but everyone stuck with that proverb for too long.
             | Then Musk appeared and he doesn't seem to care that his
             | test rockets explode. He revels in it.
             | 
             | To me it's the classic startup vs giant corporation. The
             | bigger you are, the harder it is to change course. And
             | exploding rockets look bad to management. The same reason
             | so many companies are still on IBM mainframes running
             | FORTRAN.
             | 
             | SLS is an insurance policy against SpaceX. But it's being
             | managed by the same old wasteful monopolies as always, plus
             | plenty of government mandated pork.
        
           | vardump wrote:
           | Your nickname, 0x000000E2... ERROR_VIRUS_DELETED?
        
             | 0x000000E2 wrote:
             | My favorite Windows error :)
             | 
             | I wanted [object Object] but it was taken haha
        
         | simonh wrote:
         | The essential features of the F9 that made it capable of
         | propulsive landing were an accident. After the success of the
         | F1 SpaceX didn't have the resources to develop a larger engine,
         | so they built the bigger rocket by just adding a cluster of
         | engines to the first stage. This is far from ideal because
         | multiple small engines gives poorer power to weight than fewer
         | big engines, but SpaceX hoped to gain cost advantages by mass
         | producing the engines.
         | 
         | The original plan for recovering the F9 first stage was to use
         | parachutes and this was tried with the first couple of
         | launches, but the boosters broke up on re-entry. That's when
         | the idea of a re-entry burn came up, and from that the concept
         | of a propulsive landing.
         | 
         | But propulsive landing is only possible with the F9 because it
         | has a central engine and the engines are small enough to
         | throttle down low enough to do a suicide burn. You have to have
         | an engine at or very close to the centre of the vehicle for it
         | to work. But this 9 engine cluster with a central engine was
         | not originally designed with propulsive landing in mind. It was
         | an accident.
         | 
         | If SpaceX had better funding early on, they probably would have
         | developed a larger main engine for the booster, which wouldn't
         | have been able to throttle low enough to stick a landing and
         | may not have had a cluster arrangement with a central engine
         | anyway. This is also why the other rocket companies mostly
         | can't adapt their rockets for reusability easily.
        
           | imron wrote:
           | It's amazing how much scientific progress is caused by
           | accident.
        
           | Denvercoder9 wrote:
           | _> This is far from ideal because multiple small engines
           | gives poorer power to weight than fewer big engines_
           | 
           | Are you sure about that? The Merlin engine Falcon 9 uses has
           | the highest thrust-to-weight ratio of any rocket engine
           | currently being used, more than double that of the much more
           | powerful RD-180 used on the Atlas V. You'll lose some
           | advantage because structural support and plumbing for more
           | engines is heavier, but I'd expect they'll still come out
           | ahead. The Raptor has been downsized from the original plans,
           | and Musk has said that was to improve thrust-to-weight ratio.
        
             | simonh wrote:
             | It's a fair point but how many engines have been through
             | such an aggressive optimisation and upgrade program?
             | Arguably a bigger brother of Merlin going through the same
             | process should be more efficient.
        
               | Denvercoder9 wrote:
               | _> Arguably a bigger brother of Merlin going through the
               | same process should be more efficient_
               | 
               | Why? I can't think of any reason why more powerful
               | engines would fundamentally be more weight-efficient.
        
         | justapassenger wrote:
         | We could've landed on the moon in 18th century as well, right?
         | Given that we landed in 20th century, it's just a conspiracy
         | that we didn't do it earlier.
        
           | smaddox wrote:
           | Doubtful. Landing on the moon prior to the commercialization
           | of BJT's would have been staggeringly more difficult.
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | mabbo wrote:
       | My wife was watching a show about plane spotters, and them
       | watching the last 747 flight from the UK. I was making some
       | flippant comment, like, come on this is such a weird hobby.
       | 
       | She then pointed out that I know the ID of every active SpaceX
       | booster, including prototypes, and watch nearly every launch
       | live.
       | 
       | Oh no. I'm a rocket spotter.
        
         | m463 wrote:
         | The saying I remember is... "When you point a finger at
         | someone, your other fingers are pointing back at you" :)
        
         | HPsquared wrote:
         | I suppose there was a time when planes were as rare and special
         | as rockets are today.
        
       | garciasn wrote:
       | I watched the train go overhead with my wife, son and neighbor on
       | Friday night. While I've seen them before, it was exciting to
       | share my 11 year old son's awe.
       | 
       | I know there's concern about these LEO sats, but we still enjoyed
       | counting the train as it streamed almost directly overhead from
       | West to East.
        
         | _Microft wrote:
         | As much as I understand astronomers' apprehension of satellite
         | internet constellations but the first Starlink 'train' we saw
         | from the top of a hill was absolutely captivating. I cannot
         | begin to describe the beauty of a line of sparkling dots,
         | moving unerringly but silently over the sky.
        
           | AprilArcus wrote:
           | More beautiful than the stars and galaxies they're blotting
           | out?
           | 
           | I hear this and it's like someone admiring the engineering of
           | a cloverleaf exchange running over a buried river.
        
             | TeMPOraL wrote:
             | > _More beautiful than the stars and galaxies they 're
             | blotting out?_
             | 
             | Very much yes!
             | 
             | Stars and galaxies _are_. They are as they always[0] were,
             | and always will be. Blobs of fusing hydrogen very far away.
             | As beautiful as they may be if we could see them better,
             | from where we are, they 're just points of light.
             | 
             | (Also, wait a few seconds, the satellites will pass, and
             | you're back to watching the stars behind.)
             | 
             | A constellation of satellites in the sky is also just a
             | bunch of points of light. But it's more than that. It
             | _means_ something. Humans have put it there. Those
             | satellites serve a purpose, and their appearance on the
             | night sky reminds us of the great discoveries and feats of
             | engineering that were necessary to put them there. They 're
             | a testament to the ingenuity and potential of mankind, and
             | the promise that one day, our descendants will travel among
             | them.
             | 
             | That's what I see when I see a satellite passing overhead.
             | 
             | > _it 's like someone admiring the engineering of a
             | cloverleaf exchange running over a buried river_
             | 
             | Sure, it's exactly that. A cloverleaf exchange is
             | _interesting_. It 's not something that _just happens_ ,
             | and its shape is not random. A river is boring. Also full
             | of insects that try to feast on your blood.
             | 
             | I'm totally serious, by the way. Ever since a kid, I've
             | found nature boring. This actually changed for me in my
             | adulthood - my interest in biology sparked when I realized
             | that life is just molecular nanotechnology that wasn't
             | designed by humans, but could still be eventually
             | understood and controlled.
             | 
             | --
             | 
             | [0] - On human-relevant timescales.
        
             | bryanlarsen wrote:
             | The trains are only visible within a half hour of sunrise &
             | sunset, when those stars and galaxies aren't particularly
             | visible due to incident sunlight. If you want to see the
             | stars and galaxies, look up at midnight when Starlink isn't
             | illuminated by the sun. It was the best view before & after
             | Starlink.
        
       | trompetenaccoun wrote:
       | Is there any realistic estimate for how much cheaper SpaceX will
       | be, compared to bringing cargo up on traditional rockets? I've
       | seen Musk claim something ridiculous like it's 1% of the cost of
       | legacy systems but guess that should be taken with a grain of
       | salt.
        
         | solarkraft wrote:
         | Thunderf00t, in one of his critical videos, puts break-even at
         | 3 launches, IIRC.
        
         | bodhiandphysics wrote:
         | Let's compare how much cheaper spacex is. For a 5 ton geo bird,
         | spacex is about 2/3 the price of its competition. This however
         | is price not cost. The best estimate for starlink is that
         | SpaceX's cost per satellite is about 500 thousand. This
         | compares to oneweb's 2 million per sat, for says that weigh
         | half as much. Starship could have a cost (not a price) that is
         | very low indeed.
        
         | Veedrac wrote:
         | Falcon 9 is about half the price of competitors right now,
         | though the internal cost is under half that again; a lack of
         | competition has prevented SpaceX from needing to lower prices
         | further.
         | 
         | Starship doesn't have an unambiguous cost because it's
         | dependent so heavily on factors like market size, whether the
         | Mars thing happens, and reliability. A marginal cost of a few
         | million dollars is an explicit goal, but a more short-term
         | rough goal is about Falcon 9 prices, or $50m/launch. That's
         | both a very reasonable number, and also still more than 10x
         | better than the competition.
         | 
         | https://youtu.be/GomoD0rYhJ8?t=1285
        
       | _Microft wrote:
       | So, does anyone wanna guess how many reuses SpaceX will get out
       | of a booster?
        
         | LeoPanthera wrote:
         | They replace broken and worn parts, so at some point this
         | becomes the Booster of Theseus problem. How many parts can you
         | replace before it is not the same booster anymore.
        
           | foobarbecue wrote:
           | I'm pretty sure it's when you replace the big metal tube
           | part.
        
         | perlgeek wrote:
         | I don't think anybody really knows; there simply isn't any data
         | with > 10.
         | 
         | Back in the days when boosters were recovered, I remember
         | hearing somewhere that SpaceX was confident that they would be
         | able to fly them 10x, and hoped for 100x
        
         | grecy wrote:
         | Elon said they'll keep reusing them and pushing their luck
         | until they have a failure on a starlink launch... so we're
         | almost certainly going to find out.
        
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