[HN Gopher] Microsoft bids $44.6B to buy Yahoo (2008)
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       Microsoft bids $44.6B to buy Yahoo (2008)
        
       Author : tosh
       Score  : 198 points
       Date   : 2021-05-03 12:45 UTC (10 hours ago)
        
 (HTM) web link (www.reuters.com)
 (TXT) w3m dump (www.reuters.com)
        
       | dave4420 wrote:
       | (2008)
        
         | arthur_sav wrote:
         | Somehow people miss that. Smh
        
       | spamalot159 wrote:
       | How is this possible when other reporting suggests that Yahoo
       | just sold to Apollo for $5B?
        
         | mtmail wrote:
         | By forgetting to add [2008] in the submission title.
        
           | spamalot159 wrote:
           | Ah yes, that makes more sense now.
        
       | throwaway09223 wrote:
       | Many commenters seem to be under the impression that Yahoo was
       | later sold for a mere $5B to Verizon, but this is not the case.
       | 
       | MSFT's bid was for Yahoo _including its stake in Alibaba_ , which
       | had a far greater value than the parent company itself. The
       | Verizon deal did NOT include the stake in Alibaba. This was spun
       | off as a separate company Altaba under the ticker AABA. (edit: I
       | should be more precise. This is why _yahoo_ was spun off and
       | sold. AABA is the remainder of the company, and retained the
       | majority of the value. I heard previous plans to spin off the
       | stake in Alibaba weren 't workable due to issues around
       | triggering a taxable event.)
       | 
       | AABA's spinoff accounts for the large value discrepancy. Poorly
       | written news articles portrayed this as losing out on a great
       | deal but this simply was not the case.
       | 
       | https://www.marketcaphistory.com/aaba/
        
       | plank_time wrote:
       | I worked at Yahoo during this time. I said at the time it was so
       | dumb for Microsoft to be wasting so much money on Yahoo and
       | instead they should have bought massive holdings in almost every
       | Silicon Valley company for that money, including Facebook (I
       | think they did invest a little in Facebook). Had they done that
       | instead they would have been worth multiple trillions now.
       | 
       | They really avoided a huge disaster by walking away from Yahoo,
       | so I applaud them.
        
       | mimikatz wrote:
       | now back in the BABA stake
        
       | mrbonner wrote:
       | Verizon sold Yahoo and AOL to Verizon for less than $5B today.
       | The Hadoop ecosystem founded in Yahoo by Doug Cutting would
       | probably cost a lot more than $5B in value today. I can't wait to
       | see how FAANG turns out in 10 years from now.
        
         | utopcell wrote:
         | Let's not trivialize the value that was added to Hadoop from
         | many other companies since its early Yahoo days.
        
       | trinovantes wrote:
       | It's amazing how much the internet has changed in just 13 years.
       | Makes me wonder if the tech giants of today will become
       | irrelevant by 2030s or we're past the point where the giants are
       | rich enough to just buy up anything with potential while their
       | original products fade into obscurity.
        
         | fullshark wrote:
         | If anything it's more amazing how much it hasn't changed
         | lately. The early days were a wild west full of market share
         | battles and failed startups/ideas. Now the market appears
         | mature with a few companies with strangleholds on it until
         | perhaps a technological sea change catches them off guard.
        
         | scarface74 wrote:
         | If you look back a decade, things haven't changed that much.
         | 
         | Facebook was public, growing, had figured out mobile and had
         | already acquired Instagram. It was by far the top social media
         | company.
         | 
         | Amazon had taken over online retail. It was already a behemoth.
         | AWS was in its infancy, but it was growing.
         | 
         | Apple was already the most valuable company in the US.
         | 
         | Microsoft had been one of the top 10 most valuable companies
         | for a decade.
         | 
         | Google was already a behemoth when it came to search. YouTube
         | was massive and Android had just started gaining traction.
         | 
         | Out of the top five companies, Google is the only one that
         | hasn't been able to pivot or diversify. The rest of the
         | companies have been able to learn from the mistakes of the
         | previous generation.
         | 
         | In the case of Apple and Microsoft. They have both been around
         | for 35+ years. Microsoft wrote the first version of the
         | embedded AppleSoft Basic interpreter for Apple //e's in 1980.
        
           | menzoic wrote:
           | Google is well diversified. You even mentioned Youtube and
           | Android. GCP isn't at the top but it's huge. Google
           | docs/business suite is taking over, it's the goto for
           | startups. They have a mobile carrier business. Self driving
           | cars (although its dropping in valuation but they do have a
           | large stake in Uber). Google is now Alphabet which it
           | restructured into because of its diversification.
           | 
           | Small nit: FB wasnt public 10yrs ago but your point is valid
           | either way.
        
             | ReggieCommaRose wrote:
             | Google is well diversified in its business endeavors but
             | hasn't been capitalize on that for a better diversified
             | revenue stream.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | How else do you measure whether it is successfully
               | diversifying if not by revenue or more importantly
               | profitability?
               | 
               | Contrast Google with Apple. Even though the iPhone is 60%
               | of Apple's business, last time I checked, the Mac
               | business alone would put its revenue well within the top
               | 100 companies.
        
               | ReggieCommaRose wrote:
               | That was my point - that Google isn't ACTUALLY well
               | diversified compared to its contemporaries.
        
             | LunaSea wrote:
             | Youtube is a net loss and GCP has a 4.6% market share so I
             | wouldn't really count this as diversified since very little
             | of their overall revenue comes out of these two projects?
             | 
             | Google docs / business is interesting but I'm not sure they
             | make much money out of it and are scatting on the freemium
             | tier success.
        
               | utopcell wrote:
               | YouTube is a net loss ? Where is that coming from ? It
               | brought in $6BN revenue just in Q1 [1].
               | 
               | [1] https://abc.xyz/investor/static/pdf/2021Q1_alphabet_e
               | arnings...
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | "Revenue" is not the same as "profit"
               | 
               | https://www.cnbc.com/2020/02/03/google-still-isnt-
               | telling-us...
        
               | utopcell wrote:
               | The question stands: Where is the "net loss" statement
               | coming from ?
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Whether it's a net loss or barely profitable, it still
               | doesn't move the needle as far as Google's income.
               | 
               | Even if it did - it is still mostly search advertising.
               | That's not diversification.
        
               | utopcell wrote:
               | Search revenue was $31,879 billion in Q1 and YT revenue
               | was $6,005 billion. It doesn't seem like you're paying
               | attention.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | You're still conflating "profit" with "revenue". No one
               | is doubting that YouTube's _revenue_ is substantial.
               | There is doubt that it's _profit_ is substantial. If it
               | isn't contributing any meaningful _profit_ to Google's
               | bottom line, it isn't successful.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | Google Docs is a very distant second.
               | 
               | https://www.ciodive.com/news/Google-Microsoft-Office-
               | collabo...
        
             | scarface74 wrote:
             | According to public records that came out during the Oracle
             | lawsuit, Android had only made $22 billion in profit from
             | its inception through the time of discovery (2016). Which
             | is really nothing overall.
             | 
             | https://www.theverge.com/2016/1/21/10810834/android-
             | generate...
             | 
             | On the other hand, it's reported that Google pays Apple $12
             | billion a year to be the default search engine on Apple
             | devices.
             | 
             | Apple makes a lot more from Google on mobile than Google
             | makes from Android.
             | 
             | Andy Jassy, the CEO of AWS, has said in plenty of public
             | statements that only 4% of all enterprise IT spend is on
             | _any_ cloud provider. GCP is in a distant third.
        
           | eloisant wrote:
           | Except for Amazon, that would still be extremely successful
           | without AWS, the others had their original business model
           | disrupted.
           | 
           | So far Google still have a stronghold on search, they've been
           | able to secure it with Android and Chrome by controlling the
           | devices, they seem to be doing fine.
        
             | scarface74 wrote:
             | Android (profit of $23 billion from 2010-2016) hasn't
             | really done that great for Google. They still have to pay
             | Apple a reported $12 billion a year+ to be the default
             | search engine for iOS devices.
             | 
             | Apple's business model has always been to sell "computers"
             | at high margins. They had record Mac revenues last quarter.
             | All of their other devices are just computers with
             | different form factors running a variant of the same OS,
             | most with a variant of the same processor.
             | 
             | Office and Windows have been the main driver for MS for
             | over 25 years.
        
               | Latour wrote:
               | A primary benefit of Android is that Google is allowed to
               | put their search engine on Android mobile devices for
               | close to free instead of multiple billions of dollars.
        
               | scarface74 wrote:
               | If Apple customers are the most affluent and are worth at
               | least $12 billion a year to Google, how much are the
               | statistically less affluent Android users really worth?
               | 
               | How much are customers buying $200 phones worth to
               | advertisers compared to customers paying 3 times as much?
               | 
               | Google also has to pay third party Android OEMs a share
               | of search revenue.
        
               | selectodude wrote:
               | I would imagine a lot of it is mindshare. Apple is trendy
               | and had already called their bluff once and made Bing the
               | default search engine for a time.
               | 
               | Google pays Apple to make Google the search engine on the
               | iPhone for the same reason that Coca Cola and Anheiseur-
               | Busch spend tens of millions per year on 30 second spots
               | during the Super Bowl.
        
       | smcl wrote:
       | > Yahoo would give Microsoft dominance in Web banner ads used by
       | corporate brand advertisers
       | 
       | Wow for some reason I believed that by 2008 Google was already
       | the dominant online ads player
        
         | Kye wrote:
         | This was around when Google bought DoubleClick.
         | 
         | A good podcast episode on it:
         | https://share.transistor.fm/s/66bcbec6
        
           | kbutler wrote:
           | I'd have to peg that purchase as the inflection point turning
           | away from "don't be evil."
        
       | rapsey wrote:
       | Honestly it is pretty crazy how old Yahoo is and they are still
       | hanging on.
        
         | sushid wrote:
         | I would saying getting acquired by a PE firm is the opposite of
         | "still hanging on." Verizon just let them flop around as their
         | pond dried up. Now they're about to be eviscerated by
         | professionals.
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | But they aren't hanging on, Yahoo! is owned by Verizon.
         | 
         | Why Verizon would buy a site like Yahoo is still a mystery to
         | me, but they own a lot of other junk as well.
        
           | 300bps wrote:
           | I think Verizon would buy Yahoo so they could further
           | monetize their subscriber base.
           | 
           | Buy Yahoo.com, make Yahoo.com the default home page of every
           | customer.
           | 
           | They do this in other ways - I'm a FIOS customer and I don't
           | use their DNS because you will see ads anytime you mis-type a
           | domain name. You can turn this off with their not-so-simple
           | instructions that any Baby Boomer will be completely unable
           | to do:
           | 
           | https://www.verizon.com/support/residential/internet/home-
           | ne...
        
         | jnwatson wrote:
         | Yeah I still have yahoo.stanford.edu in an old bookmarks file.
        
       | MangoCoffee wrote:
       | >Verizon will get $4.25 billion in cash from the sale along with
       | its 10% stake in the company. Verizon and Apollo said they expect
       | the transaction to close in the second half of 2021.
       | 
       | Version paid $4.4 billion for AOL and $4.5 billion for Yahoo and
       | now sell it for $4.25 billion w/10% stake. Am I missing
       | something? why company (Version) just waste money like this?
       | 
       | https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/03/verizon-sells-yahoo-and-aol-...
        
         | acjohnson55 wrote:
         | I worked for HuffPost (which was owned by Aol) at the time of
         | the Verizon acquisition, and the story was that Verizon wanted
         | to get deeper into the media and advertising game. It seemed
         | dubious to many of us at the time. But I guess they probably
         | felt they had to counter AT&T and Comcast.
        
         | ahepp wrote:
         | >The strategy reflected a mindset that was once widely shared
         | among the world's biggest telecoms companies, which sought to
         | benefit from an explosion in digital media consumption by
         | becoming owners of content rather than mere network operators,
         | or "dumb pipes".
         | 
         | "Apollo buys Verizon media assets including Yahoo for $5bn"
         | 
         | https://on.ft.com/3uk5DMk
         | 
         | Paywalled, but link should be good for 3 visitors. I can post
         | another if anyone is desperate to read.
        
       | racl101 wrote:
       | Yahoo negotiates in Bizarro land rules.
        
       | Javimoya wrote:
       | Back in 2000, Telefonica bought Lycos for 12,5B$... A few years
       | later were sold again for a few millions
        
         | Nition wrote:
         | 2013: Yahoo buys Tumblr for $1.1B.
         | 
         | 2017: Verizon buys Yahoo for $4.8B.
         | 
         | 2019: Verizon sells Tumblr to Automattic for reportedly <$3M.
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | The owners of the Danish Yahoo clone Jubii got rich by selling
         | to Lycos, who sold it back to a Danish media company. It's now
         | owned by a Norweigen company. With each sale the site loses
         | value.
        
       | duxup wrote:
       | Maybe I remember it wrong but even in 2008 I felt that there was
       | at that point some question of what ... Yahoo was / would be.
       | 
       | IIRC Yahoo at that point was a big name that wasn't irrelevant,
       | but whatever they would be in the future seemed like it would
       | have be be akin to creating new product(s) / company / sea change
       | type move.
       | 
       | It was hard to imagine them becoming worth 66% more anytime near
       | that time (even without hindsight).
        
         | after_care wrote:
         | Microsoft was try to buy market share in the search engine.
         | This is when they were making a play for Bing to be a market
         | contender in Search. We don't know what would have happened if
         | Bing had 20% market share out the gate, as well as access to
         | Yahoo expertise/tech. A significant share of Search today would
         | be worth significantly l more than $44B, and this deal would
         | have been a fair gambit for Microsoft to make.
         | 
         | It was a very good offer, but it wasn't enough for Yahoo to
         | sell. Perhaps a larger offer would have helped, but I think
         | Yahoo had an inflated opinion of their own worth.
        
           | duxup wrote:
           | I just don't know what Yahoo... ever thought it would be.
           | 
           | It felt like a company that had success, and then never could
           | find a way out of being old Yahoo while the world changed
           | around them.
        
       | AdrianB1 wrote:
       | Is this the best money Microsoft did NOT spend?
        
         | skinnymuch wrote:
         | No. The Alibaba and Yahoo Japan stakes would have paid for the
         | entire purchase while still having benefits and then some.
         | Yahoo sold $8B of Alibaba in 2012 and $40B of the remaining in
         | 2019. They sold Yahoo Japan shares for $4B. Microsoft would
         | have had no need to sell the 2012 stake at the time. They could
         | have possibly doubled their money.
        
       | samgranieri wrote:
       | That summer my girlfriend at the time and I were laughing at the
       | different combinations of possible combined companies. Yahoogle
       | was one. This one would have been Microhoo
        
         | acheron wrote:
         | Late 90's joke: Yahoo and Netscape are going to merge and move
         | their headquarters to Israel: Net'n'Yahoo
        
           | deshpand wrote:
           | Mobil + Chevron => Moron
        
           | wombatpm wrote:
           | Microsoft to combine its handheld (Compact Edition), desktop
           | (Millennium Edition), and server software (Windows NT) into
           | one release:
           | 
           | Microsoft CEMENT
        
           | tommysydney wrote:
           | one-man co outlasted the two big techs!
        
           | kbutler wrote:
           | WordPerfect bought a little company I worked for,
           | "SoftSolutions". Then Novell bought WordPerfect.
           | 
           | The combined company? NoPerfectSolutions
        
       | ignoramous wrote:
       | The years from 2006 to 2010 gave rise to today's BigTech.
       | 
       | Microsoft, Yahoo!, and Google were pioneers in the data-centers
       | space. Amazon was only beginning to turn-up the heat. In
       | retrospect, given the engineering talent and expertise at Y! at
       | the time, it is a shame that in light of AWS' success they did
       | not invest in Infrastructure-as-a-Service when their "web
       | services" org was already churning out a range of tools and
       | services on top of SOAP / REST. I mean, the Apache Hadoop
       | ecosystem was mostly Yahoo!
       | 
       | As an outside observer, I think, with any luck, cloud computing
       | could have saved Y!'s bacon, even as a late entrant (MSFT re-
       | launched Azure in 2010). Y!'s focus on being a Media house now
       | seems like a bad bet, which could have worked had they snapped
       | Facebook for $1B.
       | 
       | Microsoft struggled with its initial "Red Dog" / "Windows Azure"
       | release in 2008, too; so much so that parts of the company were
       | EC2 customers back in the day.
       | 
       | I think this goes to show how stars _had_ to align for AWS to
       | stay a market leader as they started from a position of
       | disadvantage (and needed a decade of exponential growth to
       | consolidate only to contend with unrelenting competition from
       | Azure), in face of companies that were are no slouches in terms
       | of ability and product innovation, either. For Google though,
       | around the same time Y! was floundering, their acquisitions and
       | execution with Android, YouTube, and Chrome (I like to say Chrome
       | was acquired because Google literally hired lead Firefox
       | engineers to build it) ensured their relevance in the decade to
       | come.
       | 
       | No wonder the folks who ran AWS, Azure, and Android/Chrome ended
       | up as the eventual CEOs of their respective trillion-dollar
       | mother-ships; whilst Y! has bitten the dust.
        
         | umeshunni wrote:
         | > Cloud computing could have saved Y!'s bacon, even as a late
         | entrant (MSFT re-launched Azure in 2010)
         | 
         | MSFT could rely on a large enterprise-focused sales team with
         | existing relationships with CIOs. Y! would not have had that
         | luxury.
        
       | spolsky wrote:
       | at the time Yahoo owned something like 30% of Alibaba, which,
       | today, would be worth maybe $200B.
        
         | danielmeskin wrote:
         | As far as I know its Alibaba stock got split off into its own
         | company (Altaba)
        
           | mimikatz wrote:
           | Yes, but that happened after the MS bid.
        
         | MisterPea wrote:
         | That's funny, this fact completely changes the perception of
         | this entire thread.
         | 
         | 44.6B would've been a great investment then
        
       | [deleted]
        
       | andy_ppp wrote:
       | I worked at Yahoo! when this was going on, I'm amazed the share
       | holders didn't sue Jerry Yang and the board for avoiding this
       | sale. Yahoo had very little of technological value and was
       | actively trying to destroy its own search business amongst other
       | properties at the time. They really were in a prime position and
       | bungled it extremely badly, I think they had maybe 20% of the
       | search market at the time.
       | 
       | Carol Bartz later came and told everyone it was pointless to be
       | in the search business because Google were too big and impossible
       | to compete with on investment. She made it very clear the
       | equation for success was money spent === great search engine
       | results, ignoring how Google came into being in the first place.
       | Pure Harvard Business School spreadsheet stuff.
       | 
       | It still feels like a wasted opportunity to me, it seems so weak
       | to just throw your hands up in the air and say it's too hard to
       | make your extremely successful search engine better.
        
         | lazyjeff wrote:
         | I also worked at Yahoo at that time, and I remember the
         | feelings internally were more mixed. It was known that nearly
         | all (or even more than 100%) of Yahoo's market value was the
         | investment in Alibaba. Microsoft's offer basically valued all
         | of Yahoo minus Alibaba and minus Yahoo Japan basically at
         | nothing. And I'm perplexed by your blame on Jerry Yang, as out
         | of the entire history of Yahoo, his Alibaba investment was the
         | most financially successful act, worth more than anything any
         | CEO at Yahoo had ever done combined.
         | 
         | Also remember at that time that Google, MSN, and Yahoo were the
         | three major search engines at that time. It wasn't clear why
         | Yahoo couldn't close on the #1 spot. It had the clear #1 search
         | engine spot in Japan already. The Yahoo properties (combination
         | of all their websites) was the most popular websites on the
         | internet. They had a much stronger machine learning and data
         | mining research lab, one year bragging that they swept all the
         | best paper awards at the ML/DM computer science conferences.
        
         | chalst wrote:
         | The answer to the puzzle is that the rule about fiduciary duty
         | really is only relevant to who the beneficiaries are of
         | financial transactions; it pretty much does not have anything
         | to say about regular business decisions. No doubt some
         | shareholders contacted their lawyers and were gently dissuaded
         | by a legal reality check.
        
           | cbsmith wrote:
           | Shareholders _did_ sue, and the threat of the lawsuit meant
           | the board had to devote a lot of energy towards the Microsoft
           | acquisition offer, which was unfortunately why the offer was
           | a win-win for Microsoft.
        
         | wpietri wrote:
         | I'm with you on almost all of this, but can you explain why you
         | think it's incorrect that Yahoo wouldn't have to spend a lot of
         | money to keep up with Google?
         | 
         | Google's origin story doesn't seem relevant to me, in that
         | Google won because they made radical leaps forward in search
         | quality, compute cost, and and compute scale. As well as
         | company culture around innovation/continuous improvement, I
         | suspect. All at a time when the web was exploding: only 19% of
         | people used the web at Google's launch; by 2008 it was circa
         | 70%. [1]
         | 
         | It seems to me that by 2008, there were fewer easy innovations
         | lying around to make. Or if there were, Google was well
         | prepared to match them. That, plus the way the size of the web
         | had exploded [2] in the decade since Google's launch suggests
         | to me that competing with Google would have been extremely
         | expensive. The way that other people have tried and failed
         | since points that way too, as Google's market share is even
         | larger now than it was in 2008.
         | 
         | [1] See https://www.statista.com/statistics/185700/percentage-
         | of-adu... and
         | https://www.statista.com/statistics/214662/household-adoptio...
         | 
         | [2] From 1997 to 2008, there were more than 100x more websites,
         | and I expect those websites got larger both in number of pages
         | and per-page size. https://www.internetlivestats.com/total-
         | number-of-websites/
        
           | chrisco255 wrote:
           | > It seems to me that by 2008, there were fewer easy
           | innovations lying around to make. Or if there were, Google
           | was well prepared to match them.
           | 
           | Except for privacy-centric search. This is what DuckDuckGo
           | has capitalized on and it's worked out for them. Neither
           | Microsoft with Bing nor Yahoo was able to see this as a niche
           | to compete.
        
           | cbsmith wrote:
           | > Google's origin story doesn't seem relevant to me, in that
           | Google won because they made radical leaps forward in search
           | quality, compute cost, and and compute scale.
           | 
           | That's the myth, but it's pretty far from the reality. Long
           | before Google became such a dominant player, competing search
           | engines had matched or exceeded its quality, compute cost,
           | and ability to scale.
           | 
           | > All at a time when the web was exploding: only 19% of
           | people used the web at Google's launch; by 2008 it was circa
           | 70%.
           | 
           | Bingo. You nailed it. It turns out the search market was
           | largely a distribution game. You wanted to be the search
           | engine distributed to that massively growing audience, and
           | Google did a great job of establishing itself as the first
           | search engine presented to people.
           | 
           | > It seems to me that by 2008, there were fewer easy
           | innovations lying around to make.
           | 
           | There's certainly been a lot of innovations in search since
           | 2008, but nothing that was "disruptive". It's very hard to
           | get more than a small percentage of people to change what
           | search engine they use, and advertisers are not particularly
           | interested in chasing that segment of the population.
           | 
           | > The way that other people have tried and failed since
           | points that way too, as Google's market share is even larger
           | now than it was in 2008.
           | 
           | Yeah, I really have to scratch my head at how people look at
           | the empirical evidence and think that in 2008 it was a
           | mistake to recognize the losing position competitors were in.
        
             | chaostheory wrote:
             | > That's the myth, but it's pretty far from the reality.
             | Long before Google became such a dominant player, competing
             | search engines had matched or exceeded its quality, compute
             | cost, and ability to scale.
             | 
             | I disagree. Inktomi, Altavista, and AllTheWeb weren't even
             | close in terms of search result revelance and the number of
             | pages they indexed. Every time they attempted to close the
             | gap, Google would just widen it with stuff like real time
             | search, their revolutionary maps UI, and gmail.
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | You're certainly welcome to disagree, but Google would be
               | the first to tell you how relevant the number of pages
               | indexed would be.
               | 
               | When you actually measured the result relevance number,
               | it turned out that all the major engines were pretty
               | similar, and Google often was not the top one. More
               | importantly though, the observed phenomenon was that no
               | matter how _bad_ the results you presented were, most
               | people didn 't switch to another search engine.
               | 
               | I get that you're a Google fan, but GMail & Maps weren't
               | part of the search engine. Ironically "real time search"
               | was rolled out as a PR move to counteract the narrative
               | that was being constructed at the time: that Google was
               | falling behind UX innovations in the search engine space.
               | All of the above were rolled out _after_ Google was the
               | dominant player in the search space.
               | 
               | Google has absolutely done some amazing things, and their
               | search team is second to none, but the narrative that
               | they became the dominant player because of their
               | technical advantages is very misleading.
        
               | chaostheory wrote:
               | I am no longer a Google fan. Haven't been for years so
               | there's no bias.
               | 
               | > More importantly though, the observed phenomenon was
               | that no matter how bad the results you presented were,
               | most people didn't switch to another search engine.
               | 
               | That may be the case today because the results are
               | similar now, but it wasn't the same case years ago. The
               | ancient search engines prior to Google weren't much
               | better than human curated directories like Yahoo.
               | Otherwise, why would anyone switch from them to Google?
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | > I am no longer a Google fan. Haven't been for years so
               | there's no bias.
               | 
               | I'm sorry, I guess I inferred the wrong conclusion from
               | your statements. I would argue that your perception of
               | Google _at the time_ would be a more significant factor
               | influencing your perception of their performance, but
               | that 's actually largely beside the point.
               | 
               | > That may be the case today because the results are
               | similar now, but it wasn't the same case years ago. The
               | ancient search engines prior to Google weren't much
               | better than human curated directories like Yahoo.
               | Otherwise, why would anyone switch from them to Google?
               | 
               | I think your question at the end there underlines the
               | central point of confusion here. While some people do
               | indeed switch search engines (depending on how you
               | measure, somewhere between 10-30% of users), the vast
               | majority do not. Even when presented with what one would
               | expect to be the worst search engine in the world (one
               | that presented only paid search results), most people
               | would not switch to another engine.
               | 
               | So the answer to your question is: most people don't
               | switch from any particular search engine to any other
               | search engine.
               | 
               | I would be the first to agree that there was definitely a
               | window of time where Google was observably producing
               | better search results than their competitors, and I'm
               | sure you were amongst many others (including myself) who
               | switched to them at that time... but again, that was a
               | small subset of the population.
               | 
               | The search engine space was (and is) very competitive,
               | and it did not take long for competitors to react and
               | close the gap. When we measured performance in 2004,
               | Google did not come out on top. Subsequent measurements
               | produced similar outcomes, although occasionally Google
               | would come out on top. Having more relevant results
               | definitely lead to increased adoption, but only of a
               | small segment of the much larger market.
               | 
               | Unless you count AOL searches as part of Google, Google
               | didn't lead in market share until ~2004 (and it really
               | wasn't until 2005 that they were ahead by more than a
               | paper-thin margin). At that point, they had slightly less
               | than 30% market share as compared to present market share
               | which is closer to 90%. Even by 2004, the predominant way
               | that search engines acquired new users was not through
               | "switchers" changing search engines because of better
               | results, but rather because of distribution deals (like
               | the deal Google had with AOL) where a distributor would
               | make a particular engine the first one users were
               | presented with.
               | 
               | Think of it this way: how many times have you _checked_
               | to see if other search engines were performing better
               | than Google? After you switched to using Google, how
               | regularly did you check to see if other alternatives were
               | doing a better job? Most people I 've spoken with never
               | even heard of Powerset, let alone tried it to see if it
               | served their needs better than Google. If consumers never
               | check, it's hard to believe product performance makes a
               | difference, right?
               | 
               | That's the reality of the search engine business. It
               | certainly helps to be better than everyone else at
               | search, but it is no where near the primary driver of
               | market share.
        
             | wpietri wrote:
             | Thanks for the detailed reply.
             | 
             | > Long before Google became such a dominant player,
             | competing search engines had matched or exceeded its
             | quality, compute cost, and ability to scale.
             | 
             | Could you say more about this? I wasn't involved, but my
             | recollection is that Google pioneered using a zillion low-
             | cost nodes for search. E.g., I remember that AltaVista was
             | using a big iron approach partly as a way of showing off
             | DEC's wares. I can believe everybody had to try to keep up,
             | but I am skeptical that Google slowed down enough for
             | everybody else to catch up and/or surpass them.
        
             | coryrc wrote:
             | I was an AltaVista user. Then I started having to use a
             | meta search. Then Google came along and it always worked.
             | Who cares if the others caught up? I had no reason to look
             | for over a decade. But now I feel the amount of money to be
             | made means search will never be good again: you can pay
             | people pennies to get a few more pennies for yourself, just
             | to bury the better stuff given freely.
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | I think you accurately captured the reality of the
               | context. For the most part, as long as people perceive
               | they are getting a good search result, they aren't to
               | look at other options, let alone switch.
        
             | Bukhmanizer wrote:
             | > Long before Google became such a dominant player,
             | competing search engines had matched or exceeded its
             | quality, compute cost, and ability to scale.
             | 
             | Just curious, which ones? I remember Google felt so far
             | above any other search engine for a very long time.
        
               | hogFeast wrote:
               | Essentially all of their tech was taken from Robin Li and
               | AltaVista/DEC. Brin did a lot of the implementation work,
               | Page did nothing (a lot of the work he did do, didn't
               | scale, and was highly inferior to existing work as he
               | wasn't a strong programmer...I think he provided a server
               | room or something, he was the snake oil salesman).
               | 
               | The actual technological innovation in the search product
               | was minimal (the stuff they did later to scale was pure
               | innovation, but that came much later). They largely
               | purchased their position (for a good price).
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | The tech was "stolen" from HITS/IBM Research.
               | 
               | Because of their success with their initial data center
               | approach AltaVista was arguably one of the last to shift
               | to a model that more closely resembled the one Google
               | employed, but they certainly did a very fine job of it
               | (late mover advantage and all that). I still liked
               | AllTheWeb's data centers somewhat better, but at that
               | point the differences were pretty small.
               | 
               | I wouldn't agree with your characterization of Brin &
               | Page's contributions, but their direct technical
               | contributions to Google by that time were at best
               | marginally greater than Yang's, so it's not really
               | relevant anyway.
               | 
               | Google definitely had some great tech, but the extent to
               | which that won them the game is more myth than reality.
               | Their aggressive strategic moves are really what made
               | them successful.
        
               | twobitshifter wrote:
               | Behind every great fortune there is a crime.
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | Inktomi, Altavista, AllTheWeb, all later under Yahoo.
               | 
               | No question about the "feel", but it's amazing how
               | perception fuels reality. We did a lot of studies of
               | this, and one of the more interesting ones was that if
               | you told people they were seeing Google search results
               | (regardless if they were), they'd be more inclined to
               | rewrite their queries and look farther down in the search
               | results, rather than try using another search engine.
               | Beyond the obvious revenue & marketshare benefits, this
               | helped Google two-fold technically: it gave them better
               | data on query rewrites and search results. The hoops you
               | had to jump through to match our exceed their performance
               | were substantial.
        
               | JohnBooty wrote:
               | We did a lot of studies of this, and one of the more
               | interesting ones was that if you told people they were
               | seeing Google search results
               | 
               | This is super-interesting; where might one read more
               | about these studies?
               | 
               | Also, when were the studies done?
               | 
               | I'm curious about the "when" because I think Google's
               | reputation has slipped quite a bit.
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | These were done around 2004-2006 IIRC, I don't know if
               | the brand impact today is the same as it was back then.
               | I'll see if I can find publications, but I think most, if
               | not all of it, was not published. Even when you told
               | people that we were substituting in different search
               | engines and the presentation and layout was not
               | indicative of where the results came from, putting a
               | Google logo on the page produced a measurable difference
               | in behaviour -far more so than changes to the results
               | themselves (admittedly, we never presented ridiculous
               | results, like say results from an entirely different
               | query or a just random landing pages, but we did present
               | them with, for example, purely paid search results).
               | 
               | In general though, consumer confirmation bias is not that
               | surprising, right? Particularly with technology brands,
               | it's pretty well established that confidence in the brand
               | leads one to be more likely to attribute failure to one's
               | own "mistakes" and therefore invest in further
               | exploration of the product and/or modifying one's
               | interactions with it. It also diminishes one's belief
               | that another product would produce better results,
               | therefore diminishing interest in exploring alternatives;
               | it also leads one to perceive a product's performance as
               | "better" when it is exactly the same.
        
               | JohnBooty wrote:
               | It makes 100% sense to me that perceived quality would be
               | influenced by a person's feelings towards the brand. In
               | fact I'd be shocked when that's not the case!
        
         | skinnymuch wrote:
         | I agree it was stupid for Yahoo to not go to Microsoft at the
         | time. Maybe Microsoft and Yahoo search and ads would be
         | stronger today. Pushing against Google and FB more. But it
         | doesn't appear bad enough for a valid lawsuit considering Yahoo
         | got more than $45B back since 2008.
         | 
         | Yahoo sold half of the Alibaba stake for $8B and $40B in 2012
         | and 2019. Yahoo Japan stake for $4B in 2019. And Yahoo itself
         | for $4-5B around that time.
         | 
         | Of course the people who would have taken Microsoft stock
         | would've made a lot if they held on through 2013, 2014.
         | Microsoft stock was 10x less in 2008 and rose 50% before the
         | end of 2014. The shareholders who would've taken cash wouldn't
         | have been better off without knowing how that cash would be
         | used.
        
         | duxup wrote:
         | Was there an understanding in 2008 that Yahoo... couldn't just
         | "be Yahoo" going forward without falling behind / fading away
         | and would have to really change dramaticly?
         | 
         | I ask because it seemed like there were attempts but they were
         | sort of fits and starts and meanwhile most of Yahoo still
         | seemed like just old Yahoo...
         | 
         | It does seem like a continuous failure in leadership at Yahoo
         | to really change much at all. There were sort of psudo attempts
         | to do other things (be a media company I guess) but they never
         | came to much.
        
           | sbierwagen wrote:
           | pg wrote the famous "What happened to Yahoo?" article in
           | 2010: http://paulgraham.com/yahoo.html
        
           | eloisant wrote:
           | No, in 2008 Yahoo was already seen as a failed company.
           | 
           | The biggest mistake they did in the late 90's is to stop
           | being a tech company and be a "media company" instead.
           | 
           | So in 2008 they were still big but mostly running on momentum
           | they built during the 90's and a couple acquisitions. They
           | had Yahoo!Mail that was popular, their homepage was still
           | popular because some people forgot to try something
           | different, Flickr that they bought and was the most
           | successful photo sharing website until the got overtaken by
           | general purpose social networks, and Yahoo!Japan that was
           | hugely popular but was a joint venture with Softbank. Maybe
           | some other stuff I'm forgetting... But they didn't have
           | anything that made people dream.
           | 
           | Right before 2008 they tried to join the social bandwagon
           | with a horizontal social network across their properties, but
           | it failed just like when Google tried to do the same a couple
           | of years later with Google+.
           | 
           | However, as much as Yahoo was seen as a failed company,
           | Microsoft didn't get their Nadella rebirth yet. It was still
           | an old evil outdated company, run by Balmer, mocking the
           | iPhone and claiming their Windows CE phones with their tiny
           | start button and stylus were better.
           | 
           | So Microsoft didn't look super sexy either. It really looked
           | like 2 losers trying to band together to fight the cool
           | winner that Google was.
        
             | duxup wrote:
             | Yeah that's a valid point about MS, they were healthier as
             | far as having products and income but ... weren't at that
             | point yet reborn / looking for their own way forward.
        
             | [deleted]
        
             | andy_ppp wrote:
             | I agree with this analysis, pretty spot on. Working there
             | at the time there was still potential with the right
             | leadership to turn it around. Unfortunately that never
             | happened, instead we got Carol Bartz to destroy any
             | remaining morale at the company.
        
         | hkmurakami wrote:
         | Shareholders did great holding onto Yahoo! stock, as it's
         | Alibaba holdings would perform magnificently.
        
           | jsight wrote:
           | I could be wrong, but I don't think that was enough to push
           | it back above the 44.6B valuation.
        
             | skinnymuch wrote:
             | The Alibaba and Yahoo Japan stakes Yahoo got were selling
             | half of Alibaba stake for $8B in 2012 and $40B remaining in
             | 2019. They sold Yahoo Japan shares for $4B in 2019.
             | Microsoft would have had no need to sell the 2012 stake at
             | the time. They could have possibly doubled their money.
        
               | jsight wrote:
               | Oh, certainly if YHOO or MSFT had retained the Alibaba
               | stake it would have been worth it.
               | 
               | It looks like YHOO shares never went back above $45B,
               | though: https://www.businessinsider.com/yahoo-market-cap-
               | over-time-2...
        
             | oefrha wrote:
             | Yahoo used to have a 15% stake in Alibaba. Alibaba's market
             | cap today is ~643B according to (ironically) Yahoo Finance.
             | 
             | Edit: Apparently they used to hold 30%, but sold half of
             | that for peanuts in 2012.
        
               | mbesto wrote:
               | Also, IIRC, Yahoo Japan is basically another entity and
               | way bigger than all of Yahoo global, in which Yahoo had a
               | stake in as well.
        
               | 1024core wrote:
               | Jack Ma refused to take Alibaba public until Yahoo sold
               | half of its stake back to him (for peanuts).
               | 
               | Carol Bartz really screwed Yahoo over in its dealing with
               | Alibaba. Yahoo had 2 seats on the 5-seat board of
               | directors and Bartz couldn't be bothered to appoint
               | directors to those. When she became CEO, Jack came to
               | meet her and she dressed him down in front of his
               | underlings: a big slap in the face to Jack. These two
               | incidents made sure that he was as uncooperative as could
               | be. He took Alipay out from under Yahoo and never
               | informed Bartz.
               | 
               | Whatever you may say about Marissa Mayer, when she became
               | CEO her first priority was to fix the broken relationship
               | between Alibaba and Yahoo. She smoothed things over, and
               | Jack let Yahoo keep the 15% stake, instead of asking for
               | all of it back. She made Yahoo many billions with her
               | moves.
        
         | kreeben wrote:
         | If you are flabbergasted by the fact Yahoo, and everyone else
         | for that matter, thought it absolutely impossible to disrupt
         | Google (except for perhaps a handful of hubris-riddled people
         | at MS), please remember the general sentiment HN used to have
         | towards Google who according to us, at that time, could do no
         | wrong. They were infallible. They were the brightest people in
         | the world. They were The Good Guy (TM). They were so good that
         | when they launched a browser later that year, no one blinked
         | before installing it. You didn't blink. I didn't blink. We just
         | drank the cool aid and clicked "install".
        
           | andy_ppp wrote:
           | Sure, but if you had 20+% of the search engine market it
           | seems terrible to not even try. Maybe it would have failed
           | and bankrupted the company but I still think it would have
           | been an exciting sell for the employees to try to compete.
           | There were so many extremely talented people working there.
        
             | [deleted]
        
           | darkwizard42 wrote:
           | Chrome was an excellent browser when it launched... It might
           | not be able to compete with such a wide gap against all the
           | Chromium based clones out there now, but it was rightfully an
           | amazing experience. Initially its only competition felt like
           | Firefox
        
           | Rapzid wrote:
           | Well I'm not going to apologize for installing Chrome then or
           | now lol. It was a fantastic piece of tech with the tab
           | process isolation and V8 helped to revolutionize what
           | "webapps" were capable of.
        
             | kreeben wrote:
             | I wish for us all that some day the internet as it is today
             | would fracture and split into one webapps realm and one
             | hypertext realm so that those who can't stand it when you
             | want to click on something and you do, once the page
             | finishes loading you end up clicking the top page ad
             | instead of the button you aimed at, could go on doing the
             | things we thought we could do, back in the day.
        
               | tenebrisalietum wrote:
               | The Gemini protocol is actively doing this.
        
           | raspasov wrote:
           | Nothing is perfect, all of the time.
        
           | cbsmith wrote:
           | > We just drank the cool aid and clicked "install".
           | 
           | That's misrepresenting the search market's reality though.
           | For most people, they never clicked install.
        
             | kreeben wrote:
             | In 2008 there wasn't a need to click "install"? What OS
             | were you on that provided Google Chrome seamlessly?
        
               | mhermher wrote:
               | No, it was snuck in with Java updates (or maybe Flash?).
               | Unless you spotted the correct checked-by-default option.
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | Chrome wasn't released until September of 2008. Initial
               | adoption was around 1% in 2008.
               | 
               | I was referring to search engines, though the same was
               | true for browsers. Deals were cut with distribution
               | channels to have browsers pre-installed and to have
               | certain browsers and search engines as the default. The
               | overwhelming majority of people would use the default. In
               | fact, a lot of the benefit of releasing Chrome was that
               | it became another distribution channel that would default
               | to Google as the search engine.
        
           | tolbish wrote:
           | Tabbed browsing and incognito mode were incredibly
           | innovative.
           | 
           | edit - Looks like Firefox introduced both. But Chrome was
           | incredible in comparison at the time. I recall thinking
           | Firefox was no longer worth it. I made the move back to
           | Firefox a few years ago.
        
             | alexjplant wrote:
             | Revisionist history... Firefox and loads of niche browsers
             | (MyIE2/Maxthon which I used in the era where IE was
             | sometimes mandatory for site compatibility) had tabbed
             | browsing.
        
               | xtracto wrote:
               | Somehow it feels like Opera invented most of the features
               | contemporary browsers have. I remember using Opera on an
               | off from the late 90s to late 2000s.
        
               | cxr wrote:
               | Indeed, it would be nice if the tendency of people to
               | jump into a conversation and start spewing absolute
               | nonsense were subject to harsher social consequences.
               | 
               | But it was not just niche browsers. By the time of
               | Chrome's debut (2008), just about every browser had tabs
               | --including Internet Explorer:
               | 
               | "With the release of Internet Explorer 7 in 2006, all
               | major web browsers featured a tabbed interface."
               | <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tab_(interface)#History>
        
               | tolbish wrote:
               | What punishment would be harsh enough in your eyes for
               | the grave mistake of correcting a wrong memory?
        
               | ericbarrett wrote:
               | It had tabbed browsing, but at the time Chrome came out
               | there was no or limited tab process isolation for FF.
               | 
               | I used to work with a guy who always invoked Firefox in
               | gdb so that when it crashed, he could fix the bug (null
               | ptr deref etc.) and continue. As a "tab hoarder" he would
               | lose a day or two of context and productivity otherwise.
        
             | gogopuppygogo wrote:
             | Mozilla (the at the time self titled browser they had
             | before Firefox) even had tabs.
             | 
             | https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mozilla_Application_Suite
        
             | jrib wrote:
             | chrome's big win was that it was fast. When it came out
             | firefox felt super sluggish and it was a refreshing change.
             | 
             | That and better isolation of tabs so that one tab wouldn't
             | ruin your entire browser experience with some javascript
             | that was thrashing.
        
             | ginko wrote:
             | There were tabbed browsers before that but the first
             | mainstream browser to introduce tabbed browsing was Opera
             | in 2000.
        
             | sillysaurusx wrote:
             | I have no idea why you're completely annihilated in
             | downvotes. You're right, at least about the incognito mode.
             | I clearly remember chrome introducing this with a blog post
             | or something; my boss at the time even joked that they used
             | an example of "secretly buying a gift for someone" instead
             | of all the dirty, dirty porn you want to watch.
             | 
             | Tabbed browsing, no idea though.
             | 
             | No one is claiming chrome invented the concept of incognito
             | mode. It was just executed incredibly well.
        
             | xxpor wrote:
             | FF had tabbed browsing for years before Chrome ever showed
             | up.
        
               | Aa9C4xPz43Gg7k6 wrote:
               | And also had single process model which failed completely
               | when you had 50 tabs and Youtube etc. implemented in
               | Flash. Main tab use case being unusable around the time
               | Chrome came out was what motivated me to switch. Also,
               | extensions getting broken at each update.
        
             | meestaahjoshee wrote:
             | firefox definitely had tabbed browsing and private mode
             | before chrome was released.
             | 
             | pretty sure opera had tabbed browsing as well.
             | 
             | i just recall chrome being very minimal, clean and fast
             | when it was first released. plus as kreeben said, Google
             | was pretty revered at the time.
        
               | robotresearcher wrote:
               | Chrome made a big thing at launch about their process
               | isolation of tabs. Was that their innovation?
        
               | rishav_sharan wrote:
               | I remember switching to Chrome just because of the
               | minimalist UI. I don't know if Chrome was faster at that
               | time, but it felt faster and leaner than anything else. I
               | switched back to Firefox when I realized that there were
               | everal extensions I didn't want to part with. And then
               | back to Chrome again after a few years when Firefox
               | upgraded their UI to make everything bigger and bulbous.
        
               | figassis wrote:
               | What chrome sold was speed. Most of their ads were all
               | about how fast websites would open. And tabs was cherry
               | on top. I know that's what made me jump from IE. I
               | remember I have a Sony vaio desktop then and IE would
               | weigh it down to a crawl, then I install chrome and that
               | just made me swear to never use IE again.
        
               | tapoxi wrote:
               | Process isolation of tabs, speed (V8), incognito mode,
               | silent updates. Most of this they covered in the
               | announcement comic.
        
               | Huffers2 wrote:
               | You're right. Opera had tabbed browsing before Firefox
               | existed, and Firefox had tabbed browsing before Chrome
               | existed.
        
               | wavefunction wrote:
               | I could be wrong but it looks like Opera introduced tabs
               | in 2009 with v10.5 while Firefox's first release was in
               | 2002. Unless we're referring to different things.
        
               | meekaaku wrote:
               | No. Opera from early 2000s atleast had tabbed browsing.
               | It also had gestures, paste-and-go, open non-hyper
               | plaintext links in tab etc.
        
               | xorcist wrote:
               | That's not right. Opera had tabs in version 4, released
               | in early 2000.
               | 
               | Some people apparently think tabs has to be drag-and-
               | droppable, which Opera had in 2003, in order to be called
               | tabs:
               | https://allthatiswrong.wordpress.com/2011/01/14/opera-
               | did-no...
        
         | cbsmith wrote:
         | > I worked at Yahoo! when this was going on
         | 
         | As did I
         | 
         | > I'm amazed share holders didn't sure Jerry Yang and the board
         | for avoiding the sale.
         | 
         | There was a lawsuit:
         | https://www.seattletimes.com/business/yahoo-settles-lawsuits...
         | 
         | > Yahoo had very little of technological value and was actively
         | trying to destroy its own search business amongst other
         | properties at the time.
         | 
         | I'm not sure what you are referring to there. There was a lot
         | of investment going on in search at the time. Certainly,
         | critics (including me) felt it was maybe not the right
         | investment, but "actively trying to destroy its own search
         | business" doesn't ring true.
         | 
         | > They really were in a prime position and bungled it extremely
         | badly, I think they had maybe 20% of the search market at the
         | time.
         | 
         | 20% market share was unfortunately, a very weak position that
         | was deteriorating pretty rapidly. The network effect ensured
         | that the search business would continue to reward the dominant
         | player dramatically more so than the smaller players, even if
         | the smaller players had a technically superior product, which
         | was what Bartz was getting at.
         | 
         | "She made it very clear the equation for success was money
         | spent === great search engine results, ignoring how Google came
         | into being in the first place."
         | 
         | That's not ignoring how Google came into being, and the "money
         | spent === great search engine results" isn't exactly what she
         | said either. There's a reality that the business had evolved
         | (not accidentally) to the point where barriers to entry were
         | increasingly higher and more costly and the rewards
         | disproportionately went to the dominant players. It is typical
         | Harvard Business School stuff, because it's not at all an
         | unusual circumstance in business.
         | 
         | > It still feels like a wasted opportunity to me, it seems so
         | weak to just throw your hands up in the air and say it's too
         | hard to make your extremely successful search engine better.
         | 
         | If you'll recall, they made the engine better; it didn't
         | matter. Less than a quarter of the market would switch to
         | another engine even if you gave them absolutely the worst
         | results, and smaller differences in search quality impacted the
         | behaviour of less than 10% of the market. Hell, there was still
         | a ton of traffic going to _Alta Vista_ despite that engine no
         | longer being different from Yahoo 's. Meanwhile the advertisers
         | hugely favoured larger market share, and the consequently more
         | efficient market yielded huge marginal rewards in terms of
         | quality and profit. The search engine battle had largely
         | already been lost by then; it was largely lost several years
         | prior (arguably as far back as Google's AOL deal). The
         | opportunity wasn't "wasted": they'd thrown pretty much
         | everything at it, and come up short.
         | 
         | To this day, Google still has a dominant market share, despite
         | a plethora of would be competitors. Sure, there is a
         | possibility for a market disruption to change the game, but in
         | a decade and a half, that has yet to emerge, so if you'd bet on
         | game changing disruption in 2008 (and many investors did), from
         | an investor's perspective, you'd have lost that bet.
        
           | Bukhmanizer wrote:
           | I'm a bit confused at what Bartz' strategy was? If she
           | deinvested in search, where did she expect Yahoo to succeed
           | over Google?
        
             | cbsmith wrote:
             | It's almost like there are more ways to make money than
             | search. ;-)
             | 
             | Bartz really wasn't there long enough to execute on a
             | strategy, but her point was that the opportunity cost of
             | continuing to try to win the search engine wars was far
             | greater than the likely value of the investment.
             | 
             | At least from a historical perspective she was right.
             | Alibaba, social media, mobile, games, content, etc. All of
             | those spaces had lots of opportunity for the right moves.
        
               | andy_ppp wrote:
               | Is 21 months not enough time to execute on a strategy?
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | At such a large company? Not really. You can certainly
               | _start_ execution of a strategy, and she did, but it
               | takes a long time to turn such a big boat and fully
               | realize a strategic vision.
        
               | Bukhmanizer wrote:
               | > Bartz really wasn't there long enough to execute on a
               | strategy, but her point was that the opportunity cost of
               | continuing to try to win the search engine wars was far
               | greater than the likely value of the investment.
               | 
               | True, but don't you kind of have to win at _something_ to
               | retain users?
               | 
               | It's just unclear to me where they wanted to invest the
               | freed money.
        
             | subpixel wrote:
             | I think it was in no small part about selling ads on Yahoo-
             | owned media or through a Yahoo ad network.
        
               | Bukhmanizer wrote:
               | Isn't that what Google was doing?
        
               | subpixel wrote:
               | It's been a long time but I seem to recall Yahoo's
               | approach being decidedly old school. They were trying to
               | create or buy must-read and must-watch content to sell
               | ads against. The marketing message was that at Yahoo.com
               | you will find all the news and entertainment you could
               | ever need!
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | Google is doing that (particularly with YouTube), as is
               | everyone else. I don't think they break down the search
               | vs. other ad business any more, but at last check it was
               | still the biggest single source of revenue for the
               | company (admittedly, I believe YouTube and adsense
               | collectively generate more revenue for them now, but both
               | of these are primarily showing ads on _other_ people 's
               | content).
        
               | Bukhmanizer wrote:
               | Ah ok, so her strategy was to pull out on search, but
               | focus on higher quality/yield ads?
               | 
               | It still seems like a bit of a losing strategy as I don't
               | see any reason for people to stay with Yahoo.
        
               | [deleted]
        
               | cbsmith wrote:
               | Yahoo at the time was #1 in a number of categories,
               | including fantasy sports, finance, etc. In other areas
               | they were #2 and the marginal value of being #1 vs. #2
               | wasn't nearly as great as in search. The focus wasn't so
               | much higher quality/yield ads (I mean, that was there,
               | but everyone was always looking for that), but investing
               | in other kinds of online services that would get a better
               | ROI.
        
         | bazooka_penguin wrote:
         | Pure Harvard Business School spreadsheet stuff.
         | 
         | Business degrees might be destroying the nation.
        
           | wyre wrote:
           | All we need is a peer reviewed study proving it.
        
           | ihsw wrote:
           | > The road to hell is paved with Ivy League degrees.
           | 
           | Source: Thomas Sowell on "Intellectuals and Society"
        
           | trenchgun wrote:
           | https://www.reddit.com/r/space/comments/l7n33v/my_dad_has_ta.
           | ..
        
         | riemannzeta wrote:
         | Even if you worked there, you may not have been aware of the
         | fact that Yahoo already had an investment in a still small, but
         | exponentially growing ecommerce startup in China, or that part
         | of the reason the deal fell apart was because of a difference
         | in opinion over how to value that asset.
        
           | andy_ppp wrote:
           | I seem to remember the stake in Alibaba was worth a huge
           | proportion of the valuation at the time. I didn't know the
           | deal fell apart because of that, I was just under the
           | impression Yahoo's board and Jerry didn't want to sell to
           | 2008 Microsoft.
        
         | trimbo wrote:
         | IIRC, Yahoo didn't have search tech until they bought Inktomi.
         | They outsourced their search to Inktomi in the 90s, then to
         | Google in 2000. It was only after Yahoo bought Inktomi that
         | they brought it in house (can't remember timeline of switching
         | off Google).
         | 
         | https://www.cnet.com/news/yahoo-to-acquire-inktomi/
         | 
         | Yahoo was also a major shareholder in Google because of those
         | agreements/investments and cross-licensing Overture patents.
         | 
         | https://www.nytimes.com/2004/08/10/business/technology-googl...
        
         | fiftyfifty wrote:
         | I never understood why Yahoo got so wrapped around the axle
         | with the search engine business. I used to use Yahoo a lot to
         | start my web browsing and I liked the fact that it wasn't a
         | search engine. They provided broad categories that you could
         | click on and you could keep drilling down to more specific
         | categories until you found relevant websites. Not always the
         | best way to search the web but it was great when you didn't
         | know exactly what you are looking for. They could have easily
         | continued to categorize and curate the web that way and
         | provided a nice alternative to search engines, especially for
         | non-power users. In addition to that Yahoo had so many
         | successful components back in the day that had they spent even
         | a modicum of money and development effort they would have
         | continued to be a significant force on the web. Things like
         | Yahoo Travel and Yahoo Groups still don't have a decent
         | alternative these days. I still mourn the loss of some Yahoo
         | Groups I used to participate in. Yahoo Finance was once one of
         | the best places on the internet to research stocks and
         | investments. Yahoo Mail was ahead of Gmail for many years and
         | only through years of neglect finally let everyone else catch
         | up, their lack of spam filtering was what finally killed my
         | Yahoo mail account for me. Yahoo Briefcase could've been
         | Dropbox or Google Drive 10 years before Dropbox existed. Heck
         | Yahoo even had news aggregation years before Google did. Yahoo
         | dominated fantasy football for many years. The fact that they
         | couldn't grow and monetize any or all of these successful
         | components was simply due to a complete lack of vision and
         | leadership.
        
           | duped wrote:
           | One sad niche they missed was fantasy sports. Yahoo fantasy
           | leagues were great, with configurable rules and such.
           | 
           | Now fantasy is a big business and deeply tied to legalized
           | sports gambling. That could have been worth hundreds of
           | millions in revenue for Yahoo.
        
           | r00fus wrote:
           | It's even in their original acronym "Yahoo = yet another
           | hierarchical officious oracle".
           | 
           | Hierarchical is exactly what you're describing and I remember
           | using that a lot in the early days.
        
       | mabbo wrote:
       | > "They have to do it because they've tried everything they can
       | do to fix MSN. Yahoo is the most visited site in the world, so it
       | goes without saying that, given the current valuation, this is
       | the perfect time for them to buy it," said Piper Jaffray analyst
       | Gene Munster.
       | 
       | 13 years changes a lot.
        
       | dang wrote:
       | This story was a saga in 2008. (The related news today, of
       | course, is _Verizon Sells AOL and Yahoo to Apollo for $5B_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27024118).
       | 
       |  _Microsoft eyeing Yahoo (buyout) deal!_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=19336 - May 2007 (25
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft offers to buy Yahoo in $44.6 billion deal_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=107770 - Feb 2008 (3
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft bids $44.6 billion for Yahoo_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=107771 - Feb 2008 (80
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _WOW. Microsoft Offers $44.6 Billion To Acquire Yahoo_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=107772 - Feb 2008 (2
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Open-source silver lining in Microsoft 's wedding vow to
       | Yahoo?_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=107874 - Feb 2008
       | (4 comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo-Microsoft merger bad news for startups?_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=108099 - Feb 2008 (4
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Source: Yahoo employees say "there is no way in hell that we
       | are going to work for Microsoft."_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=108391 - Feb 2008 (6
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Non-obvious winners and losers in Microsoft Yahoo Deal_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=108531 - Feb 2008 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _Why Microsoft Acquiring Yahoo Could Suck For Everybody_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=108769 - Feb 2008 (7
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Google 's Chief Legal Officer on Microsoft's acquisition of
       | Yahoo_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=108824 - Feb 2008
       | (5 comments)
       | 
       |  _Why Yahoo Should Say Yes To Microsoft_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=108873 - Feb 2008 (8
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Google Offers to Help Yahoo Fight Off Microsoft_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=108949 - Feb 2008 (2
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Google works to torpedo Microsoft bid for Yahoo_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=109346 - Feb 2008 (4
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Silicon Valley after a Microsoft /Yahoo merger: a contrarian
       | view_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=109612 - Feb 2008
       | (12 comments)
       | 
       |  _Redeye VC: Microsoft /Yahoo - let the exodus begin_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=110366 - Feb 2008 (8
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft Adversary Rises Instinctively at Yahoo Bid_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=110392 - Feb 2008 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft Bid for Yahoo Drops To $29.50 a Share_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=110584 - Feb 2008 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _My Opinion: Google wants Microsoft to buy Yahoo_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=112444 - Feb 2008 (3
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo Board To Reject Microsoft Offer_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=112749 - Feb 2008 (44
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft is 2000 times less effective than Google; Yahoo Board
       | seems to be insane_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=112841
       | - Feb 2008 (17 comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo protects employees in case of Microsoft takeover_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=120372 - Feb 2008 (6
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo sued for spurning Microsoft_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=122047 - Feb 2008 (19
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft: Yahoo! has 3 weeks to decide_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=155833 - April 2008 (7
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo tells Microsoft to increase $41B bid_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=156836 - April 2008 (10
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _The Yahoo! /Microsoft chess match continues: Yahoo! enters
       | trial partnership with Google_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=159294 - April 2008 (6
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft Said to Be Talking With News Corporation About Joint
       | Yahoo Bid_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=159493 - April
       | 2008 (3 comments)
       | 
       |  _Pmarca: If Microsoft goes fully hostile on Yahoo_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=175477 - April 2008 (27
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft Says They'll Pay More, increasing Yahoo! bid to as
       | much as $33 /share (from $31/share)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=177816 - April 2008 (3
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft Withdraws Yahoo Bid; Walks Away From Deal_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=180517 - May 2008 (58
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo shares fall 19.7 pct as Microsoft withdraws $44B bid_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=181422 - May 2008 (5
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _How Yahoo Blew the Microsoft Deal: Part 1_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=181885 - May 2008 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _Battered Yahoo Admits It Overplayed Hand; Open To New Microsoft
       | Talks_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=182085 - May 2008
       | (36 comments)
       | 
       |  _Why isn 't anyone writing about Yahoo's amazing stock gains and
       | Microsoft's plunge?_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=182259 - May 2008 (5
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo, Microsoft Back At The Table_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=193615 - May 2008 (10
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft, Yahoo, Google, and Facebook: War of the Worlds II_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=194101 - May 2008 (2
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _What Yahoo doesn't want you to know about the Microsoft deal_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=208276 - June 2008 (2
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Why Yahoo Passed On Microsoft 's Search Deal (New Details!)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=217178 - June 2008 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft Signals It Would Rather Talk To An Icahn-Controlled
       | Yahoo_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=238583 - July 2008
       | (3 comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo spurns Microsoft again as blood boils_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=245059 - July 2008 (4
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo tells Microsoft: 'Buy us'_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=355531 - Nov 2008 (19
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft rules out Yahoo acquisition (again)_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=356526 - Nov 2008 (4
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Why Microsoft Should Bid Again -- and Yahoo Should Accept_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=369671 - Nov 2008 (1
       | comment)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft Poaches Yahoo 's Top Search Engineer; "the end of
       | Yahoo search." _ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=369908 -
       | Nov 2008 (21 comments)
       | 
       |  _Why Microsoft should forget about Yahoo and buy Palm_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=442003 - Jan 2009 (18
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft-Yahoo Deal Struck, Will Be Announced Within Next 24
       | Hours_ - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=729152 - July 2009
       | (22 comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft and Yahoo Reach Agreement on Search_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=729823 - July 2009 (24
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Microsoft looking to buy Yahoo again_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=3270790 - Nov 2011 (38
       | comments)
       | 
       |  _Yahoo Shares Top $31, The Price Microsoft Offered In 2008_ -
       | https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=6414838 - Sept 2013 (49
       | comments)
        
       | steinskeeper wrote:
       | Got a heart attack when I just saw the headline,thinking it was a
       | latest news. That aside, it's crazy how things changed for Yahoo.
       | If you really look at what transpired through their struggle to
       | find a comfortable spot during all those period of acquisitions.
       | They really failed to find a way to manage building existing
       | products and integrating new ones.
        
       | Foobar8568 wrote:
       | Mourn Geocities
        
       | 9front wrote:
       | "Apollo to Buy Yahoo, AOL From Verizon for $5 Billion" from
       | today's edition of WJS.
        
         | mrweasel wrote:
         | How could Yahoo possibly be worth that much money? It certainly
         | not worthless, Yahoo still have great brand, nostalgic even. $5
         | Billion is a bit of a strech though.
        
           | banana_giraffe wrote:
           | The sale also includes AOL, and brands like TechCrunch and
           | Engadget.
           | 
           | Still not sure it adds up to $5 billion, though.
        
             | mrweasel wrote:
             | Perhaps the sites are only valuable as a bundle?
             | 
             | The brand value of both AOL and Yahoo has to add up to
             | something, but TechCrunch and Engadget is most likely just
             | thrown in for free to get rid of both sites.
             | 
             | On its own I believe that Yahoo Finans could be a
             | profitable little site.
        
               | Macha wrote:
               | Techcrunch/Engadget came in to Verizon with AOL, and the
               | media sites (well those that Verizon hasn't sold off
               | seperately over the years) are a big part of the value
               | bundle for Verizon Media. Having just the sites without
               | the adtech business means you're losing money running the
               | sites, having the adtech without the sites mean you don't
               | have a guaranteed anchor inventory.
        
           | flavius29663 wrote:
           | Yahoo still ranks very high on Alexa. At 11, it's above
           | Wikipedia(12) and just one position below Amazon (10). Reddit
           | is at 19. Microsoft is at 21
           | 
           | https://www.alexa.com/topsites
        
             | ghaff wrote:
             | There are certainly sites that many assume must have
             | totally faded away years ago that are still floating
             | around.
             | 
             | The one that gets me is Second Life which was such a hot
             | thing for an instant in time and is still, amazingly,
             | around even though I haven't heard anyone mention it for
             | years.
        
           | 0xy wrote:
           | Anecdotally, I use Yahoo Finance daily and Yahoo News (they
           | have decent business stuff sometimes) a couple of times a
           | week.
           | 
           | Yahoo Finance is a great product.
        
             | mrweasel wrote:
             | Yahoo Finance I could see be a successful stand-alone
             | product/company. It's not a billion dollar company, but
             | perhaps a $50+ million. Sadly I don't think many in Silicon
             | Valley is interested in being an company of that size.
        
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